IFS
Intercorp Financial Services Inc
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Intel stock drops 6% as company updates chip manufacturing plans
Canada Nickel’s Carbon Storage Technology Exceeds Expectations
Intel falls 10% after disappointing Q2 results: $0.29 EPS vs $0.70 expected. $15.3 billion in revenue vs $18 billion expected. CEO says third quarter is bottom
Intel falls after disappointing Q2 results: .29 EPS vs .70 expected. CEO says third quarter is bottom
$TSEM Tower Semiconductor Ltd., Intel/IFS has plans for a major acqusition of TSEM, merging the two foundries. There is a $5/10.42% upside if you buy TSEM at $48 per share.
$UAL WEEKLY TELLS ME $40 IS LIKELY BY SEPTEMBER ... I've entered a put spread September 50/38 for $310 yesterday
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They asked Mr Buffet are you a $TITN OR $ASST man? He said the latter! See you at $30 
no i understand maybe the estimates arent up, but one would assume the expecations for IFS news would be up big time right?
all that matters is IFS brother- atleast i think so
Please close your short position… I don’t want to see you loose a lot of money. Any news that comes out for INTC lately has just caused the stock to move up. It’s been up over 50% this year and they haven’t officially annouced any IFS customers. It’s coming.
Intel hasn’t officially announced IFS customers. Once that get announced, more people will get excited.
Maybe if you actually knew a thing about Intel’s IFS strategy that started nearly 5 years ago, you would write such stupidity. But here you are, clueless and puking bullshit all over the interwebs.
Don’t hate the play, and I think there’s a chance for 14A to be their real entry with real customers in the foundry business. But they need more capitals to invest into it and they’re a bit behind TSM and Samsung on that node already. The positive is that current administration is definitely pushing for onshore manufacturing so at minimum some customers may look at IFS as second source. I being selling atm puts since they were $19 so will continue to do that. May even pick up some shares if it dips. A bit weary of leaps since the timeline for 14A to reach manufacturing capable yield is unknown.
USG convo with TSMC earlier this year. USG -> help us ramp up. You owe us. 95% of chips? Remember who actually protects Taiwan. This isn’t fair. TSMC -> hmm. Why would we give up our dominance? If we do, what assurance do we have? And if we do that will only piss off China more. We like the status quo, so no. Why we will see massive tariffs as retribution and acceleration of companies to opt in to IFS. TSMC is not to be trusted. Remember how long they dragged out their AZ fab to produce advanced chips? They had to be pushed to do so. Retarded news and the markets are reacting the wrong way. Buy the dip.
The current price is just short term momentum from all the investments made by US govt and Nvidia. The longer term outlook is really IFS. If IFS actually transform into its original vision of an US based advance foundry business then there’s plenty more room to run. The question is can it happen, even with all the recent investments. Of course the few $B that came in isn’t nearly enough to sustain its ramp up so either there’s more investment or intel will need to generate enough revenue from other sources to continue development. That’s probably the biggest immediate question for INTC.
Yeah not exactly a good deal. I think there's a support level in short term as the current administration don't want the appearance of investing in losing company so there will be policy/EO that would keep it above a certain level but unless the company can really attract customers to IFS it's going up any time soon. I think it's going to be bouncing around this $20-25 for a while. I being selling puts on this one around the short term resistance level since the beginning of the year and so far so good.
There isn't a significant upside to INTC in my view, $30-40 is probably max if they're able to attract some customer orders for IFS. I being selling ATM puts and swim in handsome premiums 🐒
Govt makes intel big money by incentivizing use of IFS. Govt makes big money off value of stake exploding. Ez.
IDK why this is selling off. The White House owning a piece means Trump will push fabless players toward IFS. Are they really going to say no? To the moon!
Here’s a GPT breakdown: Intel’s business spans several key lines, including client computing (PC chips), data center/server products, AI accelerators, networking, foundry services, and automotive tech. Here’s a structured breakdown of Intel’s main business lines as of 2025: ⸻ 1. Client Computing Group (CCG) • What it is: Chips for PCs, laptops, tablets. • Includes: Intel Core processors (i3/i5/i7/i9), Evo platform, integrated graphics. • Customers: OEMs like Dell, HP, Lenovo. ⸻ 2. Data Center and AI Group (DCAI) • What it is: Server CPUs and AI accelerators for enterprise, hyperscale, and cloud. • Includes: Xeon processors, Habana Gaudi AI chips, networking components. • Customers: Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, etc. ⸻ 3. Network and Edge Group (NEX) • What it is: Chips and platforms for 5G, telco, and edge computing. • Includes: Infrastructure processing units (IPUs), SmartNICs, Edge AI. • Focus: Low-latency compute at the edge; telecom infrastructure. ⸻ 4. Intel Foundry Services (IFS) • What it is: Contract chip manufacturing (like TSMC/Samsung). • Includes: Intel manufactures chips for external clients. • Recent focus: Open foundry model, expansion in U.S. and Europe. ⸻ 5. Mobileye (Automotive) • What it is: Advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving tech. • Includes: EyeQ chips, mapping systems, computer vision algorithms. • Structure: Operates semi-independently; IPO completed in 2022, Intel retains majority stake. ⸻ 6. Accelerated Computing Systems and Graphics Group (AXG) – now partially integrated into DCAI & CCG • What it was: High-performance GPUs and accelerators. • Includes: Intel Arc GPUs (for gaming/consumer), data center GPUs (Ponte Vecchio). • Status: Restructured as of 2023–2024 into other segments. ⸻ 7. Other Ventures / R&D / Emerging Tech • Includes: Quantum computing research, photonics, neuromorphic computing (e.g., Loihi), and security tech. • Purpose: Long-term innovation pipelines. ⸻
Their foundry services (IFS), growing demand for HPC, and a new/proven CEO.
That place is wild. I work for Intel and probably tow a little bit closer to the “violating my NDA” line than I should, and basically get told to fuck myself because I don’t see where LBT is making any meaningful changes for the better, and that everyone internally has known for months 18A is a failure. The fact they’re taking this news today as showing some kind of 3D chess that the executive team is playing speaks volumes. They’re actively winding down IFS.
Pat came in with a 5 year plan. He was ousted but year 5 is coming soon and is really gonna be a pivotal moment for Intel if it can succeed. Lip Bu Tan is gonna make some big changes but Pat’s 18A and 14A will be out over the next couple years and should hopefully be a boon for IFS
The issue with this is that he clearly doesn’t understand how tariffs work to begin with, or what they are even for. He seems to think that everyone wants to buy American goods over everything else, and that countries will just pay a tax to do so. I can’t even remember the last time I bought a US-made product. I’m sure there’s some component in something that is, or some pharma product, but I suspect that rather than gently pulling business into the USA to avoid tariffs, he’s going to make it so hard to trade with the USA that a lot of companies will set up manufacture *outside* of the USA to avoid the tariffs… Over here in the U.K. we have a body called The Institute for Fiscal Studies. Whenever the government publishes an economic plan, the IFS will publicly produce a document saying if it’s a good idea or not, and they are *more* than happy to say “that’s a dumbfuck idea”. I’ve not seen a single report of any government economist or body saying this is a bad idea. Like, who the fuck is helping this fiscally illiterate moron come up with economic strategies?
Good. Likely needed to secure manufacturing from NVIDIA and AMD for IFS. Vote of confidence is my thought. As well as experience. Glad I bought more this morning after it only dropped 1 or 2%.
The companies I have invested in have good financials and most of this current panic is caused by a lot of WHAT IFS. The dust will settle eventually and people will realise they were silly. Everyone thinks Trump is an idiot but there’s lots of people advising behind the scenes and there’s definitely more to the plan than to crash the economy
Per Ming-Chi Kuo this morning: "The first Panther Lake engineering samples, made with Intel/IFS’s 18A, are currently being tested by major PC ODM/EMS makers. My early 2025 industry survey showed 18A yields below 20-30%, so there’s still a lot of room to step up—which doesn’t bode well for Intel’s goal of hitting mass production in 2H25. On top of the tech challenges, IFS faces a big obstacle in winning outside orders due to its org setup, supply chain mgt, and culture. That’s where TSMC totally stands out." $INTC and it's big foundry play really is dancing on a knife edge. Those are poor yields with little time for course correction. I'm hopeful they'll be able to deliver. For context, TSMC hit 60% yields on it's 2nm process.
Why IFS? is wsb censoring INTC? if so that's good, i'm buying more overnight dip
$INTC Rumor Summary 1. TSMC JV, up to 20% stake in IFS 2. Broadcom stake in Intel Products with IFS investment commitments from other companies What is the share price implication Tuesday?
I actually think the report makes sense. For national security purposes, TSMC running IFS is better than IFS going out of business. It ensures advanced semiconductor manufacturing in US soil if a world war were to break out. Intel's Product Group can survive on its own so it doesn't have to sell to Broadcom. However, Broadcom+Intel Products would probably make a stronger competitor to AMD and NVDA.
I think INTC has upside, but not 100% upside. Even at its heyday it was never a $50 stock. If 18A is competitive, IFS will start to break even and INTC valuation will recover by 25 to 50%. If 18A is not competitive, IFS will get bought out by TSMC. Intel product business itself is worth $100B because it's profitable. So there's no chance for INTC to go bankrupt and need bailout. Worst case for it is just to shut IFS and keep the product business.
Forget about short term price movements and focus on the big picture. Trump is going to spend the next four years pumping intel, which means 18A and 14A will have all the time and budget to ramp and be cash positive. Trump is also going to force US customers to tape out with those nodes. What we learned this this week: - 18A is faster than TSMC's N2 (!!!), albeit lower density. So it's great for GPUs and CPUs, maybe not ideal for smartphones. INTC has the best node in a decade, confirmed, and it's ramping on time. Pat's legacy. - That traitor at the helm of the BoD of Intel, Frank Yeary, spent the last few months trying to sell out to TSMC. I hope he gets fired. - TSMC is of course happy to annihilate their competitor and reduce their risk on west Taiwan taking over the island (which is happening, there is no question about it). - Trump of course won't allow TSMC to have a controlling interest on this IFS JV. The US _needs_ to onshore chip manufacturing and it _needs_ to reduce its dependancy from Taiwan and TSMC. Otherwise, the world as we know it has a 20% chance to stop existing in 2027. Trump is pushing for the right thing, and INTC, or whatever IFS JV spinoff, will become a trillion dollar company. Easiest trade ever.
Here’s a summary of why TSMC’s chip fabrication capabilities are better than Intel’s: 1. Process Node Leadership – TSMC is ahead in 3nm (N3) and moving to 2nm (N2) in 2025, while Intel has struggled with delays in 7nm (Intel 4) and 2nm (Intel 20A). 2. Superior Foundry Model – TSMC focuses exclusively on manufacturing for multiple clients (Apple, NVIDIA, AMD), while Intel’s IDM model creates inefficiencies. 3. Higher Yield & Manufacturing Efficiency – TSMC has better wafer yields and higher fab utilization, reducing costs and improving output. 4. EUV Lithography Advantage – TSMC adopted EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography) earlier, leading to simpler, more efficient chip production. 5. Stronger Global Fab Expansion – TSMC has high-volume fabs in Taiwan, the U.S., Japan, and Europe, while Intel is still catching up with new fab investments. 6. Intel is trying to close the gap with its Intel Foundry Services (IFS) and advanced node roadmap, but it remains one to two generations behind TSMC in leading-edge chip production.
You're right, turnarounds do take a very long time to materialize. They started this turnaround with IFS / IDM 2.0 years ago and we're now coming into the 9th inning. Excited to see how it plays out!
There are a lot of ways this could be beneficial to both companies without TSMC buying IFS. TSMC could rent space and equipment from Intel to fill its own orders. It could license process technology(most likely not the most advanced node) to Intel similar to how Global Foundry licenses process technology from other companies. It could also become a minority owner then license technology to IFS. IFS in turn could cut significant cost in research and become profitable. This allows TSMC to remain the market leader while keeping IFS alive.
They are not buying the IFS fabs but “partnering”
Big "IFS" good to be careful as market has gone up a lot already. Look at what happened last weekend 
Intel has had multiple generations of CPUs with serious hardware defects that are causing premature failure. The newest generation of CPUs is running on a new architecture that is at best on par with the previous generation while being generally more expensive. The board just "retired" Pat Gelsinger out of the blue without a new CEO selected. IFS is so far behind that even the Intel design teams are going to TSMC for many products. Just about the only spot of good news for Intel at the moment is the release of the Battlemage series of GPUs, which *might* be enough for them to gain a foothold in consumer if the marketing slides are to be believed. However, even that could end up being a flop, as both AMD and Nvidia will be unveiling at least some of the next generation lineup of GPUs at CES in January, so we're likely to have a "wait and see" approach from most consumers, especially with Christmas spending in full swing.
**Rumor only**, but hear 18A process is not yielding for s\*\*\*. Would love an actual confirm/denial. This is crucial if they want the IFS business. Getting a mass volume graphics chip with a growth path is also important if they want to make a dent in the AI market. I used to rep INTC and I still remember the sales conf where the marketing guy came up and said AMD x86 wasn't the biggest threat, Sony's graphics were. He prob went to work for NVDA :)
idk about “debunked” so much as “disregarded” because of potential conflict of interest. but i think he was just referring to how bad a sign firing pat is for IFS. made me sell — just cannot fathom how that was the right play unless 1) 18A is going to shit behind the scenes 2) pat is sick or something
I don't think that was Pat's focus at all, nor is there much money to be made there. It's clear that IFS was his primary focus. Betting on Intel is betting on IFS to succeed. I have a small amount of INTC as a hedge against supply chain disruptions in Taiwan and/or Korea caused by extremely unlikely events such as war with China or earthquakes. I'm perfectly happy if those things don't happen and my INTC hedge lose value while the rest of my portfolio do well. Outside of such events, it's just impossible for a US company to compete with Asian companies on low margin business due to high labor cost in the US.
The main reason for the downfall of Gaslightinger is utter failure in the Intel Foundary Service division. IFS simply cannot compete against TSMC even after spending billions and billions. Gaslightinger has been gaslighting the board that somehow the magical 18A process will solve all the problems. He has AA degree from Lincoln Technology Institute and probably got suckered in by crooks in IFS with technical mumbo jumbos that he could not follow. Samsung is also fucked just as bad as Intel because of the same reason. The 3rd gen SamSung scion has a degree in oriental studies.
Yeah that is the problem. They have a bigger future with their manufacturing, but they need the products to pay for manufacturing development, as unlike TSMC the government isn't going to subsidize the majority of it. At the same time, they have to retain majority ownership of IFS. So unless they entirely shift to Foundry while at the same time having the customers to do so, and actually selling off products, it'll be a tough sell.
IFS isn't competitive and keeps sinking huge stacks of money without producing anything. TSMC is making everything for Intel. Intel margins are at lowest without improving soon. If 18A doesn't work out Intel is kaput. Intel management is at IBM level of incompetence
That’s what I thought. You are wrong those are their product lines which are semiconductors. Client group refers to CPUs sold to PCs and laptops. The foundry lines are the manufacturing revenue from their new IFS business which charges their internal (and soon to be external) customers.
The problem is IFS currently cannot stand on its own; without Intel Design's volume it will die in no time.
I agree with this. I think Intel’s design business will eventually be sold to Qualcomm, Broadcom, AMD, Nvidia, etc. IFS will spinoff on its own like what AMD did with GFS. My guess.
I don’t think the Biden or Trump admins would care about M&A for Intel’s design business. IFS is what they care about since it’s in the national interest to have some self-sufficiency on fabs. Ultimately I think one of AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Arm, etc will buy the design side and IFS will spinoff as an independent entity with outside investment. If I were to make a bet I’d say AMD, Qualcomm, or Broadcom would make most sense.
Waiting for ER call to discuss foundry. If Pat delivers a positive guidance on the IFS, this will fly.
**Faraday Technology (hereinafter referred to as Faraday), a Taiwanese semiconductor contract development and design company, will manufacture a 64-core server processor based on Arm's "Neoverse" at Intel Foundry Services (IFS) using Intel 18A process technology.**
Prolly IFS put. Not sure if buying puts tmr open too late tho
I’m not a tech nerd. I try and learn all I can though for the sake of my investments. If you go out and ask 100 people on the street what CPU their laptop has I guarantee 99/100 will have no clue, nor will they care. And rightly so - beyond niche benchmarks, the real world difference between Intel and AMD is zero. Actually, Intel wins on battery life now so most people will think Intel is better than AMD for all they care. Go and calculate the PE of Intel products and then come back and tell me the stock price won’t go up if IFS is spun off.
Brah don’t sweat it, Even if 18A totally fails (I hope not), then Papi Gelsinger will have no choice but to go fabless & spin off IFS. The stock will pop at least 20% even if 18A fails, as it means they are going product only.
> Intel is in this weird liminal space right now where we are both and IDM and a Pure-play. and > IFS isn’t competing with AMD I moved no such goalposts.
> IFS is now a subsidiary you forgot the dr evil air quotes. also, so what? they're a subsidiary... of intel. wow. HUGE CHANGE! totally different! >IFS isn’t competing with AMD lolz @ moving goalposts all the way to this.
Your info is a little dated. IFS is now a subsidiary and is not prioritizing Intel over outside customers. So Intel products and and AMD might be competitive, but IFS isn’t competing with AMD.
You have not named a single thing he did that isn’t good. All you’ve said is “he’s dumb”. Not a sign of good intelligence. Here’s a list: • Introduced IDM 2.0 strategy to bolster Intel’s manufacturing and use external foundries. • Launched Intel Foundry Services (IFS) to produce chips for other companies. • Announced major investments in U.S. chip manufacturing, including $20 billion for new Arizona fabs and $100 billion for Ohio. • Focused on regaining process technology leadership, aiming to catch up and surpass competitors like TSMC and Samsung. • Pushed for expansion in AI, 5G, and autonomous driving technologies. • Strengthened partnerships with U.S. government and tech companies to secure semiconductor supply chains. Now tell me, which of those are an issue and why. I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m genuinely asking. But you’ve given no good arguments. Here’s your opportunity
\*IFS = Intel foundry service, a separate entity within Intel, created by the USA CHIPS Act to compete with TSMC.
Save Intel what does that mean to you exactly? They're just going to use the x86 license to keep making CPUs? Are they going to put meaning R&D into making competitive CPUs? Are they going to start making ARM based CPUs? Does IFS come with the acquisition? Do they raise enough capital to build out IFS successfully? Designing CPUs and making a Foundry are two different businesses. Right now, Intel is good at neither. They've divested a lot of former acquisitions to their detriment. They're far behind and rode on their laurels for too long. The only way out is spending insane amounts and acquiring the best possible talent. Companies can afford a few blunders but this could be too much to bear.
Their recovery plan was up to about 2026 for the design side and got split to 2030 for the IFS side (I guess they saw the big hole that was foundries when they don't own 99% of the client and datacenter markets). 2025 is parity. I guess they believed they could coast with minimal growth until then, but NVDA blew up market expectations. It's kinda evidence just how much in the shitter Intel found itself in 2020.
And Qualcomm becoming a IFS customer basically cements IFS as 2nd largest fab in the world, also providing the critical mass demand to make IFS economies work. All US, no anti trust concerns since as you said, no head to head competition, and deal makes things more competitive due to IFS.
Intel splits IFS into a separate corp because the likes of NVDIA, AMD, QC do not want to risk IP theft.
I can't say a ton, but I will say that from within IFS, I'm still optimistic. The architecture teams are cooking real good with next-gen IP and high-na is looking healthy and scalable. They're down, but not out by a long shot.
ARM, military, AMD and NVDA. Goog and Apple very well could use them for custom silicon as well. I'm a believer in IFS - they have the next gen high-na EUV machines. They just may pull it off.
No idea, I would think more thank book value though. And to those commenting on debt, please note that book value takes into account debt. I'm not sure how often it is that companies face takeovers and they go for less than book value? If INTC solidifies itself as a TBTF, national security matter via IDM 2.0 and IFS, the stock could potentially moon. Does the reward justify the risk? Hard to say.
The complete lack of knowledge and awareness surrounding IDM 2.0 and IFS solidifies my bull thesis.
INTC don’t give a fuck because it can produce either at IFS
Why would he sell at a loss when his shares will be $50-100+ in a couple of years? Intel are going to rake in ~$12 billy subsidies that haven’t even hit the balance sheet yet Plus cost savings and halting some fab investments will send that PE right down next year Gaudi 3 getting interest from IBM for cloud so AI revenue will start to incrementally gain 18A getting big boy customers inc Microsoft and now Amazon Lunar lake/Arrow Lake looking promising IFS being restructured so that it can be independent of Intel and potentially get external funding from the likes of Nvidia/Broadcom/AMD Yes Intel didn’t win $30 billy PlayStation 6 contract but I guess next Xbox is up for grabs still…
Intel has historically been producing their own stuff, so since on-ramp of external foundry customers is going to be slow on 18A it makes sense that they don't have an overwhelming market share. IFS has been in development and only just began to open up this year.
“However, recent developments revealed that Intel Foundry Services (IFS) is struggling to gain traction, causing the company to lose $1.6 billion and practically making its stock price fall by 30% overnight.“ This is extremely disingenuous. There are so many issues at Intel which causes the stock to plummet that this is relatively a drop in the water
It’s outsourced so the focus can shift to 18a completely and ramp it to HVM as quickly as possible. The silicone will be brought back to IFS with 18a
Since Lunar/Arrow Lake is using TSMC, Intel Foundry Services (IFS) won't see a penny of revenue. All the revenue will go to the Intel Product Teams (namely CCG). The margin loss will be to INTC as a whole. Because if Lunar/Arrow Lake used (let's say Intel-3), IFS would "bill" FMV to Intel Product Teams for use of their Intel-3 capacity. But that's all internal because essentially, it's one segment of Intel paying another segment of Intel. That's why Panther Lake *should* be much cheaper to produce (when thinking from INTC as a whole instead of IFS vs Product Team). If that's not the case, then there's something fundamentally wrong with the IFS business model, IMO.
They are the same class, meaning the changes are refinements rather than leaps. They are both 18A class on the foundry process roadmap, just like Intel 4 and Intel 3 are 3nm class. Due to higher complexity of FinFET, foundries shifted away from launching full nodes like we are probably used to and switched to more incremental "nodelets". Intel 4 was meant to be used only internally as base node (it's only used on Meteor Lake), while Intel 3 is the refined version that is offered by IFS. It's the same story with 20A and 18A, they just decided to skip 20A from production altogether
Arrow Lake was rumored to have SKUs with TSMC and Intel fabbed compute dies. Gelsinger stood next to a (supposedly) 20A Arrow Lake wafer on stage September 2023, seemingly confirmed Arrow Lake 20A on track: [https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-displays-arrow-lake-wafer-with-20a-process-node-chips-arrive-in-2024](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-displays-arrow-lake-wafer-with-20a-process-node-chips-arrive-in-2024) Fast forward 12 months, Intel in deep financial trouble, cutting fab spending, 20A (probably) never reach HVM, Arrow Lake on 20A cancelled, 100s of million$ down the drain, their competitor getting all their foundry revenue for this generation of consumer products... Let's just say this is not a good look for Intel, and 18A better work or IFS could go the way of GloFound...
Fr bro yiu just gotta know there's always another shot tomorrow... Anywhere and everywhere in life you'll always be plagued with what ifs... People in prison, the grave and bad relationships all have WHAT IFS... get over it and look for you next opportunity BTW ITS BETTER THAN LOSING 75K
Bro I’m not leading anyone into buying anything. I’ve laid out a clear outline of possible scenarios and I’ve disclosed that I’ve got skin in the game. Invest at your own risk and after doing your own research. Also, judging Intel based on 6 year old pre-EUV chips is pointless. Their chip design unit is now free to also use TSMC if it’s more competitive than IFS. So their chips will only get better from now on. And IFS, if it doesn’t go bust, will be introducing cutting edge fabrication technologies.
You like all the fud about spinning off IFS?
Almost all of it boiled down to one decision made by Paul Otellini (N-3 CEO) to use DUV on 10nm to save costs, instead of EUV like everyone else. That's why INTC was stuck on 14nm for *six years*. And because the product team was so tightly integrated with the fab team, the entire product pipeline was more or less stuck. Mismanagement compounded the issue (e.g., could've made the move to EUV after 1 year of failboat, but BK was a terrible CEO). Lunar Lake will be important because it's essentially sending the message that the Intel product teams are 100% split from IFS and they can and will choose the best process technology (e.g., TSMC N3) for launch. If Lunar Lake is as good as the rumors, it should also work towards encouraging investors that INTC can make a competitive product when the process node is normalized. The downside? Your margins are impacted because TSMC is a monopoly for anything 3nm and below (Samsung fabs are slowly turning into a joke). 5N4Y (5 Nodes in 4 Years) is also critical because after being stuck on 14nm so long, it should at least encourage investors that INTC is serious at making a comeback. With GNR and SRF launching this year, it should show to customers/investors that Intel 3 (\~TSMC N5) is capable of mass production. 18A also looks extremely healthy, with Panther Lake booting into Windows on A0. And their only external 18A customer also taping out. Now the biggest problem of course is that doing all this is exceedingly expensive. PatG overall made the correct call, his biggest mistake is expanding into so many *new* factories concurrently and miscalculating how fast China was de-coupling from the West (gee, who would've thought that you making new factories in the West would've pissed Xi off and Xi would retaliate economically).
If they meet certain milestones, they will receive money from the US govnt. They have been promised the money but have not received it yet. Now, this money is for them to become a major foundry player. So it's contingent on IFS being profitable and operational. But IFS is losing money, the foundries are not going to be ready for years, while they are simultaneously trying to take market share from their competitors in the GPU/AI space. Intel Products makes money, IFS burns money, so they end up neutral and that reflects in the stock price. Unless Intel makes drastic changes, like reducing headcount (done), removing dividend (done, unfortunately it requires a short term hit to share price), and cutting costs (in process), a turnaround with the direction of the company currently is not going to be possible. Wall Street wants to see change in direction as this increases the odds of success.
The problem with a lower Intel thesis is, Ok they are at book value now, if they offload the assets for cash, well now the cash flow's better (especially the less profitable), for the price to dip below the 19-20 level we'd have to see bankruptcy imminent. IFS is burning cash but the other half of Intel actually pulls revenue, so the value is primarily concentrated on the revenue one, since anyone wanting to invest in growth is being directed towards AMD, Nvidia, TSMC etc. I don't see going lower than this point unless their core revenue is threatened, but for that, PC's would no longer have to be a good market.
My take on this is (and that's me being dead serious here assessing the whole situation since years), with these news of a possible split being considered now or the thought of their IFS being IPOd they now entertain the public with … As always bringing their salami tactics and only revealing a bad news only in little slices and little by little e.g. through planted rumors like they have done so ever since – They're just priming the public and share-holders to subconsciously just accept their fabs ending up on the chopping block either way. Since it has become a mess, they themselves can't handle anymore. Since let's face it: Their whole IDM 2.0 was a bad joke and cloud-castle to begin with. Gelsingers plan of salvation and a utter joke to bring 5 nodes in just 4 years (5N4Y), after having stumbled and tried to advance for a decade with utter failure, was some utter joke from the start and everyone informed saw right through the bs. And no, trying to compete with TSMC is outright delusional. as TSMC gets pumped and dumped money on by the whole rest of the industry since years, which Intel can't ever compete against. Just look at TSMC's yearly revenue of $65-75Bn and put that against Intel's few billions. Not even a mere chance on paper. His plan to regain process-leadership was not only delusional from the get-go, but even sacrificing the company's only actually viable still-remaining assets for it (being still able to designing fairly decent IP-designs), was straight-up suicidal. His belief that he could compete with anyone as a foundry (TSMC, Samsung, GloFo, UMC & Co), much less TSMC itself, was utterly delusional and surely **a dangerous proposition to begin with** – That comes of as almost pathologically maniac and psychotic, especially when you consider, that *the complete rest of the semiconductor-industry* is not only helplessly filling up TSMC, Samsung, GloFo and all others with ship-loads of money (well, except *Intel* itself, of course!), but that the industry's biggest heavyweights like Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, MediaTek and so forth even almost drug TSMC up to the eyeballs with cash (for TSMC's own node-advancements), to be the very first at their newest node. Whoever thought (their board!) there would be any greater financial ability this going forward for any greater amount of time (without going ultimately broke), has been insane. Since Intel can't just sustain outsourcing and live off such smaller margins without extremely depleting financially and amass debts en masse or lose easily half of their headcount to avoid bankruptcy. *I mean, who could've possibly thought, shifting most of your inventory towards outsourced contract-manufacturers, would hit their own margins?! The joke is, they're doing it whilst trying to compete with them at the same time (pumping their competitors' CapEx).* Now they're on the brink of bankruptcy and have to hold extension plans, due to money-constrains for staying solvent … I think it was all done on purpose, to elegantly get rid of their fabs in a nice and smooth way, without them being send packing and have ample time to enrich themselves with millions in the meantime. Since so daft and utterly stupid is exactly no-one on God's green earth, being NOT able foreseeing going bankrupt over this from a mile away, it was likely planned to drag it out and fill their pockets. Like *"See?! Now we HAVE to sell our biggest assets, since we're basically broke! How did that happen all of a sudden?!"*. They knew it was time to let go, yet couldn't outright tell the truth for not being replaced with their multi-million salaries.
Samsung manufactured A series chips for Apple, their main competition their premier product line. If the fab is good enough, it will have customers, the bigger issue is that Intel is behind and not reliable enough to be worth it. It's pretty hard to take IFS seriously when Intel design is using TSMC for a large amount of their current products.
Agree with all you said. I’m still waiting to see positive signs of IFS catching up to TSMC. These next 2 years will be critical as the 5 nodes 4 years draws to an end and reports come out about the 18A manufacturing. Intel layoffs were basically a nothing but dropped the stock by 33% which was funny. Think it funds 1 more year of R&D, with CHIPS act funding basically a second year. Cash burn is insane tho for now Despite the large amount of potential Intel has, I haven’t yet seen signs of them being able to establish process node leadership. Still lots of time tho…
I agree that Intel IFS is not yet competitive - and that will probably be the case until at least 18A production is ramped up. I would strongly disagree that Intel designed CPUs and GPUs are not competitive, For instance - the TSMC produced Lunar Lake CPU at 17W is outperforming a lot of other CPUs that are running at 45W. Intel know how to design the best CPUs/GPUs - they just can't produce those CPUs/GPUs at their own foundries yet.
At least these are long dated options. That's also around the time IFS should break even. This might be a good call. But don't like that OP had to borrow from 401k to do this.
Checkout IDM 2.0 / IFS. The foundry play is the core of my investing thesis.
That's not possible, they are burning billions in next two years alone into IFS. It's all in the earnings call.
No, the alternative is they use the Low NA EUV (same tool that TSMC has) to manufacture 3nm in-house at IFS. What makes you think Intel is forced to outsource to TSMC? Intel has low NA EUV , which the same exact tool that TSMC uses to manufacture 3nm. It's extra proof that Intel is so incompetent, it can't compete with TSMC even if it has the same exact tools (low NA EUV) and high NA EUV isn't even a game changer.
All their good news is actually not great news underneath and their bad news is very bad. Either way, building IFS will cost more than the company is worth on paper. I think they're legitimately screwed for a lot longer than anyone thinks. Maybe they can go make less powerful chips for everyone who needs them but they're going to be roiled against Samsung/TSMC.
Intel has too much headcount glut. Now they have too much capex glut with IFS. Management has fumbled the ball for two decades.
No amount of good news has helped Intel's stock. Because they're a decade behind. They have no moat. The cost to build out IFS is so overly ambitious it costs more than the company is valued at.
it's impressive how regarded this comment is intel it quite literally betting the entire company on IFS and youre saying they should sell the fabs lmao
Yea I mean you really missed the mark on Intel. Intels goal right now isn’t profitability, it’s building out their foundry business. Layoffs are to preserve cash for continued investment into IFS, they are spending 25 bil a year. If they want profitability then they just stop investing in foundry and sell that division, AMD did the same 15 years ago.
I think that Intel’s making their node transitions way too expensive by also trying to simultaneously increase fab capacity for IFS. It’s to the point where they’ve had to make huge cuts to their product roadmap to just have enough money for their fabs. This gamble (sacrificing their proven design business for an unproven foundry business) is way too risky for my taste, and imo, it’s the wrong move. >If they yield at 18A, they are back They’ll be “back” in terms of having competitive tech, but not immediately in terms of profit. It will take time to build up trust in the industry (especially since they failed the first time they attempted foundry a decade ago), and kindling that trust would be seriously set back if Intel doesn’t achieve its high-NA 14A transition smoothly. And the end of the day, Intel’s plan is far too risky imo, and they could still profit and expand without IFS and its associated risks.
>They are basically rebuilding all of their fabs for new nodes. Node transitions themselves don’t cost this much. The high cost mainly comes from new constructions for IFS. >All the changes they are making is the best news I could hear. These changes, including firing a bunch of people should have happened 10 years ago. If they only got rid of bloat, then I’d agree with you. But they’ve been laying off engineers too, and cancelling essential projects and product lines. >If they can successful yield on 18A, you are looking at a 500B dollar market cap. 18A will only get their foot in the door at best. 14A has to be both good and on time to really make a big impact, and judging from Intel’s recent performance (Intel 4), I have my doubts that they’ll succeed.
Their attempts will keep going down until ... I guess 2026, with 14A and Novalake on IFS and IP sides. Everything since I guess Alderlake was rushed or cut down or in "let's see if this works, but quickly, we have to move on". That's the whole point of that stupid 5 nodes in 4 years. It's not a moneymaker, it's a rush to make up for whatever the hell 10nm was, they're just now feeling the consequences of stopping innovation/getting lazy when you do have competition.
Ex Intel employee here. The culture is broken and management is as corrupt as they come. The company has been in decline for the last 20-years. They missed the boat on x64 architecture, iPhone and mobile devices in general, IOT, and several other opportunities. IFS is light years behind TSMC because of one misstep after another. IFS 2.0 was supposed to be their ticket to success and it's a non-starter. They buy companies like McAfee and Xilinx to incorporate their tech, fail to execute, then sell those companies at a loss. Intel is pumping out defective products like gen 13/14 CPU's without proper QA and validation because they can no longer command a premium for them. Anyone remember the FDIV bug in the late 90's? Intel recalled those CPU's because they really cared about quality back then, that's no longer the case today. I purged all INTC (RSU's, ESPP's) from my portfolio earlier this year, and wouldn't consider purchasing it again at any price. Revenue has been in a steady decline YOY, top talent has been leaving in droves, and the culture there is more TOXIC than ever before. Intel simply cannot compete against AMD, Nvidia, and TSMC anymore. The company is done for.
> Bailout backup is what keeps them from rapid innovation and risk taking. They're literally betting the company on IFS. They got stuck on 10nm/Intel 7. Yeah, their innovation stagnated, but they would have been in a much better place if that process hadn't been delayed for 4 years.
INTC should really reconsider their IFS plan. Spin it off like Ebay spin-off Paypal will send INTC to at least $300B over night.
What makes you think Intel needs the same people that are building IFS to run IFS? The company is going through an overhaul.
Not really, their new process node looks good... So guidance may be good, especially if they have gained clients for IFS
That's a lot of IFS. There's a reason why the rich invest into real estate either for businesses and rental properties. Way better tax benefits than securities and better ways to leverage them in order to gain more real estate if you know what you're doing. It's not how much money you make but how much money you keep.