MSOS

Veganlightbody

avoid..go to cresco and green thumb or just MSOS

feeshNjolf

Well.... It was a green week ladies and gents! MSOS gained about .12 cents US. Is it the start of something special, maybe:) Have a great weekend everyone!

Many_Easy

You’ll notice that those diversified don’t whine and rarely resort to personal attacks for different opinions. Momentum is and will likely be slow, but definitely favors the patient, traditional, and diligent investor that knows the longer term macro is still moving forward. Just not expecting anything from almost daily rumours and current administration. If I was a new cannabis investor, would I start DCA at current valuations? Absolutely! **Filter out** any companies with unmanageable debt, those not paying 280e/excise taxes, minimal cash, non Big 4 auditors, MAGA management, . . . Definitely avoid cannabis ETFs, particularly MSOS.

Many_Easy

Wrong sub. This has primarily been a pro-MSOS ETF sub. Only lately have people been critical of MSOS. Very few have been positive Tilray Brands.

Flipside68

Brother I’ve been holding MSOS since 2020. My initial buy was at $20.

UsedState7381

Wait for the dump at close. I'll be loading up more next Monday either way, just because I have 2091 shares of MSOS and that *really* triggers me.

Mr_Snow___

It's all so predictable. The question for today is: *Will MSOS see 2.20?*

Flipside68

MSOS 7000 shares at $7.3 Long.

UsedState7381

Sell program still active all the same on MSOS...Good lord.

Cute-Illustrator-862

I feel sorry for people who keep buying MSOS. If you're going to invest in cannabis stocks long term just buy the stock.

Many_Easy

**In layman’s terms please.** How does Dan Ahrens’ MSOS & MSOX ETF today underperform underlying cannabis stocks (including Curaleaf) today? What a joke and dangerous influence this ETF has had on the cannabis industry.

Veganlightbody

MSOS is a good place to keep adding. Otherwise maybe add a bit more to Cresco and Green Thumb separately

ComprehensiveKiwi489

Any reason why Schwab has MSOS closing price at $2.32, while Yahoo Finance has it at $2.295?

theduderino38

What’s all this green shit on my Tru, GTI, MSOS, Cresco tickers!?!??

therearenolighters

Some good buzz on X today for MSOS. I'll take green anytime

CardiologistFew4264

Stay away from MSOS and MSOx. Trul, GTI and cresco should make it through the consolidation/failures to come the next year or so.

Many_Easy

Stay away from ETFs particularly MSOS and MSOX. Only invest 10%-15% of your portfolio in cannabis stocks. Buy individual names of 3-5 companies with exposure to both LPs and MSOs. Invest for longer term and take profits along the way especially when there is a hype or meme run on unsubstantiated news. Do research on SEC filings or SEDAR. Only invest in cannabis companies that are current 280e or excise taxes. Only invest in companies with manageable debt. Be prepared to either lose your entire investment. Understand risk/reward. Don’t gloat or go “scorched earth” depending on your returns. Verify anything you read or hear. **Be patient** - this industry very dependent on politics and social acceptance. Don’t confuse luck with brains. Good luck.

Tiaan

I have $MSOS in one of my Roth IRAs with a cost basis of $22 from DCAing between 2021-2023. I basically treat that account as completely worthless now and never expect it to have any meaningful recovery

Tiaan

I'm sure that this hasn't had a significant downward drag on the underlying stocks, right? > $MSOS - Without a trade, share creation or a share redemption this month, it seems that the ETF is burning $58k/day on fees and swap decay. > > Almost $1 million month to date. https://x.com/mrfeinsod/status/1937849187673997351

manualCAD

Our golden cross is going to be when MSOX drops below MSOS and then comes back up.

randomuser1029

He could be we're still a long ways off from mid terms, I wouldn't have too have of hopes about anything happening soon. That being said I have been buying MSOS lately because it's cheap and I think it will be a good mid to long term investment, I don't expect it to be a short term investment though. My very optimistic outlook is that Trump pushes for it next year for midterm elections. What I think is more realistic is that in the next 5-15 years it will be legalized and we'll see good returns at that point

Flipside68

The funds aims to be 2x MSOS - market conditions don’t always allow this to happen

ComprehensiveKiwi489

MSOX is up only like half a percent more than MSOS right now...Aren't leveraged ETF's supposed to be up or down like 2X the underlying asset?

Tiaan

These are not typical ETFs. MSOX is a 2x leveraged ETF based on MSOS which itself is largely comprised of total return swaps and not actual stocks. The underlying stocks are stuck on low volume, low liquidity OTC exchanges while the ETFs freely trade on the uplisted exchanges like NYSE and NASDAQ. This creates a situation where the vast majority of the trading volume in this sector goes through these ETFs, and they end up dictating the price of the underlying, not the other way around as is the case with normal ETFs. The total return swaps have fees ranging from 5-9%/yr alongside the typical ETF fees that must get paid regardless of the ETF price performance. This all creates a massive downward drag on the underlying stocks. I would not recommend either ETF for anyone interested in investing in this sector. These ETFs effectively kill any price discovery in the underlying stocks while outright destroying shareholder value through constant decay from swap fees and derivative instruments.

Many_Easy

One thing for sure in my mind, Dan Ahrens and MSOS have got to disappear.

Notwolferd1588

MSOS and MSOX are garbage funds with shotty advisors. Best to stay away. Run from weed in general.

200cents

OK so I am looking at MSOS vs MSOX. Is MSOX a deal right now in relation to MSOX? They are both up 3% however MSOX is leveraged x2. In addition MSOX appears to have hit and past the 52wL

Tiaan

$20? Heck, even $5 MSOS feels impossible now without a reverse split.

manualCAD

$20 MSOS now seems impossible, and that was the "get back to prior levels" price target before the election dump. Amazing grift by Advisorshares

Tiaan

Crazy to see how far this sector has plummeted after the election selloff. The low of the immediate election selloff was $4.05 on MSOS and the high was $5.19. MSOS would need 91% and 144% gains just to get back to those levels. It would take over 230% return just to get back to where we were prior to the election. Absolutely insane

One-Yard9754

3.4% LOL what is that, 6/7 pennies on MSOS?

Tiaan

I don't think the after hours on MSOS has any significance with such low volumes. We've been dumping into the close yet green after hours nearly every day for the past few weeks

OwnPomegranate1932

SPY - closed HOD MSOS - closed LOD

buenassuenos

"An enemy of my enemy is my friend" Quietly a positive for MSOS....

UsedState7381

Seems like a foregone conclusion given that we dipped down again last Friday and now it looks like USA will attack Iran. MSOS should be revisiting the ATL this Monday, remains to be seen if it will hold or not.

C_B_Doyle

Yes, MSOS holds a lot of companies with debt. I honestly like MRMD and JSDA.

stickman07738

Before this would happen, the SAFE act needs to pass and the MJ stock may move $1-2 dollars. The hopium for MJ stock has finally died down due to significant loses. Just look at the ETF - MSOS, CNBS, YOLO, MJ performance over the last few years - it is AVOID and look for a better investment.

Hanshee

I was in a similar position as you. Thought I broke the code. Short squeeze plays Bb, GME, PLTR etc back in 2021 Ended up losing 70% of my gains bleeding to MSOS/TLRY.

Iros_Chiller

Ben on the bird app. "I think I asked the wrong question. The MM demand to MSOX (making the "creates") is only a hedge bc they sold a lot of MSOS to the large buying at the end of the day 6/18. ⚖️ Net net, that means MSOX is a boxed "create" which is very bad for long equities. ☠️ Therefore, winding down MSOX would be good for the industry. Does anyone disagree? 🧐 (It can be good for others while being bad for the industry 🤔)" Boy howdy these folk need a room

theduderino38

Market makers, OTC manipulation, hedge funds shorting, shenanigans from the MSOS management, lack of liquidity and retail / institutional buyers - take your pick… 🫠

OwnPomegranate1932

Why is it so common and predictable that MSOS crashes EOD?

UsedState7381

MSOS is not "due" to a reverse split either unless the managers deliberately says it will be, and so far they haven't said anything. In regards to MSOX...I don't see the argument for it to be shutdown, but also I don't see the need for it to remain since MSOS has options.

Twist_of_Fate_44

Not a shutdown, but they are both due for a reverse split Both MSOS and MSOX It's the nature of these types of etfs

manualCAD

If $MSOX was going to shut down, how would @AdvisorShares wind it down in the smoothest, least market impactful way? @HammanShares @InvestinginCan1 Reminder, MSOX has only 1 holding: $MSOS, ~$16M notional, $8M AUM, 7M shares of MSOS Monday Mathletics ⬆️ $GTBIF 🇺🇸 https://x.com/Bkov9/status/1934588740279890090?t=0aNzt5VxMLKu30yeYepWxQ&s=19

OwnPomegranate1932

I mean futures aren't that bad and tbh MSOS and SPY are not very correlated anymore. And what happened tongiht isn't really anything that new or unexpected.

One-Yard9754

Are you the guy on SA owning MSOS and writing a pile of weekly calls on it? I have no idea how many shares that person had, but it was a lot!

Latter-Freedom1693

Someone just bought a big ole chunk of MSOS @2:20 today

UsedState7381

I wonder if MSOS will test ATL again before going back up to mid $2.50 once the end of month pump comes in.

Many_Easy

Buy underlying. MSOS (ETF) - **never** MSOs (w/ decent debt, current 280e) - **absolutely**.

TurboSuperboS

MSOS just slowly bleeding... Tempting but man you'll sit on it forever.

Desperate_Move_5043

Same dude. I’ll be very happy if MSOS hits 10 again. I’m not worried because I don’t think it’s ever gonna happen, I’m just worried that it might not happen for another five years lol.

OwnPomegranate1932

The amount of times I've doubled down because I thought it couldn't go any lower is insane. Although if $MSOS goes to $10 now, I will be a millionaire and can retire. I held $MSOS at $55 and was nowhere near that. Yolo (not actually $MSOS but the underlyings)

Mr_Snow___

u/Tiaan You brought up an important topic yesterday that I believe should be fleshed out for readers regarding the MSOS etf. >A total return swap is a derivative contract where one counterparty pays sums based on a floating interest rate, for example Libor plus a given spread, and receives payments based on the return of a reference asset such as a bond, stock or equity index. The returns include any gains or losses in the reference asset’s price as well as any relevant coupon or dividends over the period. The swap allows a buyer to gain exposure to an asset without owning it, ***in exchange for taking on the price and default risk.*** [https://www.risk.net/definition/total-return-swap](https://www.risk.net/definition/total-return-swap) Who is the counterparty MSOS is contracted with? What are the terms of the agreement? Does the counterparty have a vested interest in keeping these stocks off the normal exchanges? Does the counterparty have any connections/influence with rule makers? The whole process has seem some [janky](https://www.dea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-01/Marijuana%20Rescheduling_Order%20Regarding%20Government%27s%20Proposed%20Exhibit.pdf) shit happening throughout. (*whether it was the DEA stalling or politicians seemingly intentionally tanking the chances while paying lip service to the electorate*)

Tiaan

Yes, you're correct that the mechanism is the same but the difference is the volume. MSOS has much larger volumes than any of those other ETFs and more than the underlying themselves which is imo the main issue. I don't see a way around this until either these stocks uplist or these ETFs close but in the meantime I don't see their existence as beneficial as they allow situations like this where most of the volume in the sector comes from this expensive and convoluted derivative instrument

Tiaan

I mean just thinking about it simplistically makes sense: Before the ETF existed, anyone who wanted to buy a US MSO stock had to actually buy the stock on the crappy exchanges, which could easily lead to larger moves on news spikes due to the illiquid market. Now with the ETF, most people just buy the ETF since its on the liquid uplisted exchanges, but that means the buying/selling of the underlying is primarily done algorithmically based on MSOS flows (the ETF tail is wagging the dog) Yes, things have changed in the broad economy and in this sector, but the assumption often is that the depressed prices are largely due to dilution in the underlying, but that's not really true. The main holdings of MSOS that comprise over 70%+ of the ETF have not diluted to the point of warranting a 90%+ decline over 4 years. The main culprits of dilution are the LPs, largely because their uplisted status gives them the opportunity to continually raise capital. MSOs do not have that luxury

Tiaan

Something I've been thinking about recently and am curious to get other's thoughts here: does the existence of the MSOS ETF "cap" the potential upside of the underlying OTC stocks on any real bull run? The reason why I'm asking this is because one thing I've noticed is that since MSOS inception, every bull run has been "capped" at around 100% gains before fully retracing. Some examples: MSOS Inception in Sept 2020: $25 -> $55 (120%) SAFE hype end of 2021: $25 -> $33 (32%) End of summer 2022: $8 -> $15 (87%) Aug 2023 S3 news: $4.7 -> $9.88 (102%) Oct 2023 S3 retrace into S3 rule: $4.9 -> $11.37 (132%) Before MSOS, there's numerous examples of the the underlying stocks running 200%+ and I'm struggling to find anything remotely similar post-MSOS. This pattern makes me quite weary that even if we did get some positive news for the sector that we'd struggle to even break $5 on MSOS. Some might say "100% gains are great!" but it's not so great when the stock or ETF is down 98%+

Latter-Freedom1693

Amen to this. Lot of mixed signals out there re reform and rescheduling. Congress wants DEA review and DEA hosts Mike Tyson etc. The strange list is long. I'm holding 6700 shares of MSOS, been in the sector since 2017, cashed out three times, sunk my earnings into real estate, now own 5 houses, which is to say that even if I were to lose my current investment, I'd still come out ahead. Having said that, I'm hoping for the moon like the rest of us, but I am patient and content to put this investment on back burner and pay attention to other sectors until reform/moon comes around. I've felt a lot of misery coming out of our discussions of late, but go back and look at the history of alcohol stocks. Hell, look at the history of Amazon. Patience, my warriors. Our day is coming.

DowntownWpg

I so desperately want Pelosi to buy some MSOS leaps...

Many_Easy

And Green Thumb with their moat and positive cash flow not doing that great either. Hopefully, MSOS ETF ends soon. They’re charging way too much in fees and expenses for an **actively managed** fund that is even underperforming most of the individual stocks they own, is opaque, and has too much influence. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were front running big trades. I agree with CEO Ben Kovler’s comments regarding MSOS ETF.

n0lefin

MSOS & TLRY, went in big like a retard and ended up selling at a >80% loss.

stickman07738

Yep, really miss the MSOS debates.

OwnPomegranate1932

SPY back up over $600 MSOS on its way back to $2 and below

ohihaveasubscription

I finally sold all of my Tilray shares this morning. Bought Aphria back in 2017, averaged down a few times, and held it until now. I thought they were in a great position to be a massive global supplier with their diamond facilities. It was money I didn't need, but goddamn I could almost cry looking at the money I wasted on this crap stock. Still holding MSOS, but prepared to sell that for pennies as well. Oh well.

Alert-Athlete

I’m hoping the US votes a democratic president in the next election. Then I’d throw money at cannabis (GTII, MSOS are the 2 I have my eyes on).

theduderino38

MSOS to $2 !!! 🤣🫠

volckerwasright

Someone out there wants xxx,xxx MSOS lots and doesn't mind paying 5-6 cent premium

C_B_Doyle

Don't put it into MSOS or weed stocks. Getting slammed on MRMD.

manualCAD

Straight to the moon! ($20 MSOS lol)

Russticale

Great open today. Good volume into MSOS.

UsedState7381

Don't forget Doug Kass calling MSOS under $2.60 a "trade of the week", only to complete turn himself against the ticker one month and a half later.

Aggressive-Abies-145

The interim CEO, Scott and CFO, Donna were both specifically brought in by the top lenders, most likely Millstreet Capital as they own 293 of the debt but are also 18% shareholder. They are here to turn this company around finally. Most likely outcome is pushing current debt of 25 million to non-current long term debt which in the news release states the filings are delayed due to account classification. This move alone carries significant impact on AYR's debt ratio since they only have 35 million in cash. In order for AYR to do this they HAVE to consult with their secured lenders Millstreet to get their approval. Extending the maturity of the long-term debt and lowering interest rates will also strengthen the balance sheet. Lower their current warrants to much cheaper than 2.16 USD will happen for good faith and probably mild dilution. Millstreet doesnt want another Ianthus, Medmen or Red White and Bloom scenario as no one wins. Millstreet owns 18% of the shares already so why would they want high dilution to take their position out. Doesn't make sense for them. Millstreet is in this for the long term and see a future for AYR by buying 2 million shares in November after the election at 1.20 USD. The last negotiation back in Feb 2024 was also lender friendly as Millstreet doesn't want this company to fail. Taking their assets is not worth it. Look at Medmen tied up in courts. I'm holding 108,313 shares and not selling anything. Dramatic 50% decrease on only 3.5 million shares traded with a wall put in at .15 CAD is tiny. Panic selling by retail. Wall is still in today. Advisor MSOS did not sell their 13 million swap shares Friday, why not? Millstreet didn't unload, why not. News is coming. Good luck.

noobstockinvestor

Hello friends. I wish I realized this sooner but the way to make money in this sector is to trade it. This recent CGC run gave me about 12k in realized gains. Sorry @ foodcooker in advance - after a major crash on CGC, I DCA it slowly. I kept adding on every 10-15% dump. Then unload the entire position during its random 100% pump. I don't try to nail tops and bottoms now, just taking my peice of the pie and getting out. I'm not advocating for this, it can go straight to 0. I've watched CGC for a decade now so felt comfortable doing it. I don't think it's a good buy now though, it needs to dump much harder for me to dabble with it again. Maybe if it's market cap hits 100m I'll give it another go. That being said, I did move the CGC position to tilray. I sold most of it in January at $1.7CAD. Got to buy it back much cheaper and I can see them running hard once this RS nonsense blows over. After the most recent dilution, their debt profile looks better. To be completely honest, even green thumb isn't a good investment (right now). You'd be exit liquidity for MSOS. We all know how petty Dan could be, it took him 3 years to get over drama with Ascend. If you like green thumb, you might as well buy Agrify instead. I don't hold much cannabis stocks these days. The only sizable position I have left here is my tilray. Some Verano/cbst I had since last year that I'm seriously considering moving to Agrify. Small positions in Cura/trul for short term trades. All of which is less than 15% of my portfolio. Hope you've all been doing well! Maybe we'll see safer added as an amendment in the new bill - hah

goalpost21

They really don’t have much to buy. Otherwise it will be GTBIF’s shortcut to the Nasdaq. Which might not be a bad idea MSOS/GTBIF

UsedState7381

Seriously, if we get a random pump in June that takes MSOS above $3, and there are no signs of any positive news besides hopium, I will be very tempted to bail out.

manualCAD

Good thing MSOS was selling GTI to buy Ayr this year. Even I knew not to do that

manualCAD

Now DK is questioning MSOS management too..... https://x.com/DougKass/status/1928426795914674438?t=qg7oXZ_e0fW6DA_YcuHjVQ&s=19

Many_Easy

They will, but do MSOS investors want their fund manager gambling? Someone mentioned that Dan’s the petty type and I definitely can see that.

manualCAD

How many people, in just this sub, have donated money to MSOS? Allllll of those inflows into MSOS could have gone into the individual names. Maybe news wouldn't get pumped and dumped like we see with MSOS.

manualCAD

The stocks wouldn't soar without MSOS, but I don't think they'd be this low...

manualCAD

I wonder where this industry would be (both stocks and the actual industry) if MSOS didn't exist. A lot more people here would have investment accounts that provide access to OTC, that's for sure.

Russticale

Macro looking okay.  MSOS consolidating during this short trading week.  Im back in with some leverage. Looking like MSOS wants to keep its $2.50 bid so taking a stab here.

volckerwasright

I believe the MSOS ETF accounts for this. Jan 15th holdings: GTBIF 22 million, TCNNF 18.6mil Yesterday: GTBIF 18.9 mil, TCNNF 18.4mil

Apprehensive-Sky-248

today is important to get the MSOS out performance to upside.. the daily candle of the msos to iwm ratio yesterday close at lows & broke below a recent consolidation area.. a gap up on the ratio and close near the highs could print a potential false breakdown set up

TheCuriousBread

I had some MSOS leaps that went out as far as I could go when I bought em, yeah they all expired worthless in 2023 lmao.

MyBoomstickIsBigger

I sold a large MSOS position for a (very) hefty loss back in November of last year. Never again.

MAkrbrakenumbers

I’m on my own path rn going with SPCE and MSOS rn

germanator86

Can someone tell these clown politicians that its still legal (unfortunately) for them to invest in MSOS OR X and pass a banking bill or safe act and make like 200% or more on their money, easily. They dont need the lobbyist donations, they can essentially make their own... just.get.it.done.

CannaVestments

"Active management" from MSOS held 36.1M shares of this dumpster fire

UsedState7381

MSOS trading like a penny stock today, so little volume...

4Inv2est0

Exactly why I didn't buy them 6 months ago. Or a year ago. Or 2 years ago. Why wouldn't I look at them today? Have you seen the assets you are getting for $600m? How do those assets compare to an MSOS like Green Thumb, with a market cap over $1B? Also take note that Tilray operates with far less regulatory risk - Canada and Europe are federally regulated cannabis programs.

MSOGangBaystreet

MSOS ETF sold 1,000,000 shares of planet 13 today!

manualCAD

MSOS is back to negative cash balance 👍🏼

Flipside68

MSOX seeks daily investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond to two times (2x) the daily total return of the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (Ticker: MSOS). Key word her is “seeks”. Search the chat for other technical explanations

RealEstateWindsor

Why because one day of LP's ending green and MSOS's being red. If that's your reasoning please go all in on LP's.

UsedState7381

The only other ETF with the same portfolio as MSOS is CNBS far as I know.

One-Yard9754

Nobody has a fucking Time Machine, and everyone got burned in this sector. Did you read the tweet by Doug K? Over three years ago, I switched out of Curaleaf and cresco, as the earnings between the better companies and garbage companies started to diverge. And when the market crashed after election, immediately dumped MSOS (what small position I had) because i knew the sector would only trend lower but switching capital from MSOS to Greenthumb, at least there’s a chance of capital recovery. There are people in this sector that actually don’t know the difference between Curaleaf and Greenthumb, I get it, the sector is in decline and borderline uninvestable with the regulatory constraints (both in Canada and the US), but if you believe in the longterm viability of this sector (and I think you do since you’re here), investing in the winners here will be the difference between winning or losing. I’m constantly following these companies very closely and will switch capital from an underperforming company to a better operator, as the earnings unfold. You have to stay diligent and manage your position, sticking your head in the sand is only going to hurt. What happens if MSOS closes shop?

Buildsoc

Did Trump just put a 145% tariff on US Marijuana? Canadian marijuana stocks ripping higher, US MSOS diving deeper 😖

MontyNinjaPython

How does MSOS work? Why is it so extreme? Is it leveraged?

theduderino38

lol thanks friend!! Do you happen to have a Time Machine to go with your crystal ball and unsolicited tips?? I get it bro- I’ve made shit investment decisions as a naive and inexperienced investor and yes I’m rebalancing and moving to index funds, divi stocks like a grown up smart(er) investor. MSOS will be the first of long shares I dump at slightly higher prices - just waiting on any news on rescheduling.

ComprehensiveKiwi489

Big drop that brings MSOS from +4% to -4%, and yet, Canadian LP's (like VFF and TLRY) are doing great today. This sector is both confusing and infuriating.