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Small Modular Reactor Stocks may be the next tech trend. Check where to invest.
China Bans Graphite Export - Lomiko Metals $LMR $LMRMF - watchlist
ALCC - Sam Altmans SPAC, Oklo a micro nuclear reactor startup. - This thing is radioactive (Don't touch it)
The uranium sector: A lot is changing the last 3 months at the demand side. The supply side isn't ready for this (An update: the actual additional uranium demand each event creates. It's impressive) + NEW: U-turn of Sweden + NEW: Germany extending the operations of 3 reactors
The uranium sector: A lot is changing the last month at the demand side. The supply side isn't ready for this.
NuScale Power (SMR) is going to be a beast in the coming years (imo). Why?
SO Southern Company…DD and why I’m Bullish
Is this a way to get invested in a future rush on nuclear power?
Mentions
Imagine if OKLO’s NRC or Plutonium hits tomorrow too
[BWXT notifies NRC of plan to seek uranium enrichment license](https://investors.bwxt.com/news-releases/news-release-details/bwxt-begins-nrc-engagement-licensing-new-defense-nuclear-fuel) BWX Technologies, $BWXT, plans to apply for a Nuclear Regulatory Commission license in Q1 2027 to build a new uranium enrichment facility in Tennessee. The plant, slated to be operational around 2035, supports a $1.5 billion federal contract aimed at restoring the U.S. domestic supply of highly enriched uranium for naval propulsion and national defense.
Did you read it? **Early March** – NRC finalizes Part 53. This is the modern licensing path Oklo needed. Two active builds: * **Aurora (Idaho)** – fast reactor for power generation; FOAK unit already in physical construction. * **Groves (Ohio)** – isotope production reactor; facility build‑out underway and expected to be the first to go critical. Criticality date is set for July 4th 2026.
Yes they hold a shitload of shares and they've cashed out a shitload of shares too and own billions already. Early investors made them rich without even executing on their promises. Well hopefully they do hit their milestones like you said because the previous NRC application was toast.
ATRL Canadian OEM of the CANDU technology. Currently in talks with the NRC to license stateside as they project westinghouse will not be able to fill the demand. Additional ~12 reactors planned in Ontario and other export opportunities in ASEAN nations and eastern europe.
I don't think this is what they had in mind, but there are actually a number of considerations. For starters, Hungary is in the EU which would be subjected to GDPR laws. India has similar with DPDP. On the US side of things, military, defense, aerospace, government, and even healthcare (especially medicare & medicaid) all strongly prefer or require their data to remain in the US. That is just the data centers. American nuclear technology is also regulated. If I'm correct, you need to go past the DOE, NRC, and maybe the EAR. Which is not even considering what agencies India or the EU would require you to speak with.
NNE - massive upside if they execute, but you’ll need a long time horizon. Could say the same for Oklo although that’s already had some run. LWLG, POET - different plays on squeezing more compute out of chips. If either gets widely adopted, could sky rocket. IONQ (or QBTS/RGTI) - Quantum computing. Ion most well established and safer balance sheet to be able to cover the long cycle that quantum will need. But if they can improve the models/error rates, it’s like unlocking a new dimension in computing. NXE - owns one of the best uranium deposits in the world. Applying now for NRC permits; if they execute and uranium prices stay elevated, could be 10X
What happened in 1975? The NRC was created. One of the first rules they implemented was mandatory 4 year delays in all new nuclear projects. This led to 100 cancelations. The delay process is what drives up costs because you have to pay interest, penalties, and interest on penalties. The NRC created other rules designed to increase costs and destroy supply lines. One of them was steel. The rebar steel used for hydroelectric dams or suspensions dams is regulated to be of the highest quality. It can't be used in a nuclear power plant--for no reason other than artificially increasing costs and reducing the ability to produce it. Nuclear had always been regulated. It wasn't a safety thing. The Atomic Energy Commission existed. The purpose of the NRC was to kill new nuclear development--one they were very successful at. One 2 nuclear power plants have navigated their way through the NRC gauntlet. Every other plant was grandfathered in. China has solved it. 1% interest rates for nuclear power plants. We could just pay for it. Public Pension funds could purchase new plants at a fraction of the cost. Allow public municipalities to just pay for it without having to borrow money. There are more solutions.
This is a very, very, very slow process. Just look into how long it took something recent like Vogtle to get approved by the NRC. SMRs are still only theoretical. There's none that have been built yet. NRC approval is probably in the 10 year time frame. 2050 is definitely a stretch goal. Think of something like EVs a few years ago. There was all this attention and activity and goals to get everyone in an EV by 2030. And now, EVs are all but done in the US. Gm and Ford have trashed their EV plans and others are following suit. Energy can change very fast. 2010 Obama is talking about nuke power and touting its benefits and then Fukushima hits in 2011 and it stops nuke discussions for 15 years. This may never even happen.
Nuclear company with only 200 employees 😹 sounds safe I'm sure the NRC will approve
imo - SMR is an easy 10x in 2-3 years. buy the fucking dip! AI needs nuclear energy. this one is on the fast track with NRC approval already on their modular reactor designs. Nuclear is the future of energy. SMR's are the future of nuclear.
> It seems like OKLO pumping on NRC license news but that’s not for them, it’s for a company they bought. I wonder how transferable that is Your first comment implied that the only major regulatory milestone today was pertaining to their subsidiary, Atomic Alchemy, which was not the case. Their main Aurora powerhouse passed a significant milestone too, which is getting more news attention.
That’s not the point I was making. They got their first NRC license approval, but it’s for Atomic Alchemy, which they bought last year.
They’re two different things. The NRC license is for isotopes (which actually generates early revenue), while the reactor is moving through the DOE fast-track program first. That’s literally the plan- not a delay.
It seems like OKLO pumping on NRC license news but that’s not for them, it’s for a company they bought. I wonder how transferable that is
NuScale’s approval doesn’t mean much anymore considering their history of executional failure and their old gen-3 LWR technology. The DOE’s RPP is allowing OKLO to build and operate non-commercially, with a fast-tracked NRC review at the tail end, hence the 2027 deployment target. Regarding demand, OKLO has ~18GW total in MOU/LOI with META being a binding agreement to deliver 1.2GW to Ohio by 2034, with first phase complete by 2030.
Ugh. Can you just know that an actuation of emergency core cooling systems necessitates a report to the NRC?
I interface a lot with NRC regulations on daily basis so I’m pretty in tune with changes. Their regulations prior to the current administration were considered “lax” on an international scale. The United States had one of the least if not the least strict rules on radiation safety in the world. Now they are being scaled back to a comical degree. My employment won’t be negatively affected by the changes but my safety and the safety of my coworkers will be. That being said I’m a big critical minerals guy as far as investing lately.
They have for Department of Energy but the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is still relatively the same. NRC is expected to make all of the same changes by November-ish. It is pretty upsetting but the Radiation workers in established industries will be reluctant to change their policies despite the regulations. Eventually cost savings will erode at the “now unnecessary” safety policies.
What? Their first units are “early to mid 2030s”, not 2030, and that’s for **EU deployment**. They have done nothing with the NRC or DOE to be competitive with domestic players, only the European regulatory process. Do you think they can magically build in the U.S? Lmao.
You’re mashing together unrelated issues and calling it a conspiracy. 1. The NPR piece is about DOE oversight for certain experimental reactors- not the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission licensing framework that governs commercial power reactors like Oklo’s Aurora. Two different regulatory regimes. 2. Oklo’s 2022 application wasn’t denied for “unsafe design.” The NRC explicitly said it lacked sufficient detail in the application- it was a FOAK combined license submission. That’s a documentation and sequencing issue, not a reactor blew up on paper. They re-engaged and restructured the pathway afterward. 3. VIPR is a test reactor in a controlled DOE facility environment, not a grid-connected commercial unit. Conflating that with historical commercial power plant incidents is apples to submarines. 4. “Infinite dose exposure” is flatly false. ALARA is embedded across 10 CFR Part 20 and DOE radiological control standards. No regulator in the U.S. has legalized unlimited operator dose. 5. The July 4 target is a DOE program milestone. Missing it delays a demo. It does not somehow override federal nuclear safety law. If your thesis is “Oklo can only hit timelines by secretly abandoning nuclear safety,” you need actual evidence… not three links and a narrative bridge lol.
Yeah… about that… https://www.npr.org/2026/02/26/nx-s1-5727510/secret-rules-experimental-nuclear-reactors-now-public Looks like safety regulations were changed *specifically* for their reactor. https://id.energy.gov/Home/NEDirectives Friendly reminder, OKLO can’t (well… couldn’t) build any reactors because their NRC license was denied for lack of safety management planning and safety critical design deficiencies. https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/news/2022/22-002.pdf None of this is good to be involved in. In summary: The 07/04 deadline is due to a Trump administration arbitrary mandate. The administration *knows* no one can meet that deadline by following existing nuclear safety regulations. OKLO has had their application for a license of operation denied due to safety concerns Numerous of said regulations get rolled back. OKLO all of a sudden says they can meet the deadline. Put 2 and 2 together; OKLO is ignoring significant amounts of nuclear safety standards that have been written due to past criticality and even meltdown incidents. The regulations as they now stand: Reduced ALARA requirements to basically being optional. Seriously, they allow for infinite dose exposure for operators in the posted changes. Requirement of having a system engineer for every critical safety system. Reduced or eliminated security staff training and screening requirements. Severely reduced NEPA environmental impact statement and assessment requirements, with many being eliminated altogether.
I have been watching Oklo for a long time now. Actually all the companies in the SMR field. Someone is going to win this race. I’m leaning towards Oklo winning that race recently. The case for Oklo winning the race is built on several specific factors that separate it from the rest of the sector. They are currently sitting on a cash fortress of over 1.2 billion dollars which gives them a massive runway compared to peers like NuScale that are facing revenue drops and legal issues. The company has a unique inside track with the government as the current Secretary of Energy Chris Wright is a former Oklo board member and the administration has prioritized the July 4 2026 250th anniversary of the US as a deadline for energy dominance. Oklo holds 3 out of the 11 government pilot program slots and is already breaking ground at the Idaho National Laboratory using a DOE authorization pathway that bypasses the slower NRC commercial licensing. Sam Altman was the chairman but stepped down in 2025 to avoid conflicts of interest and allow for broader industry partnerships, he remains a major shareholder and advocate, while CEO Jacob DeWitte has taken over as Chairman to lead the execution phase. Major tech players like Meta have already signed deals and provided prepayments for power to secure their AI future which aligns with the new executive order requiring data centers to generate their own power. Institutional ownership stands at 85 percent with BlackRock and Vanguard significantly increasing their positions recently while founders have moved shares into family trusts rather than selling. They have also de-risked the supply chain by signing a binding contract with Siemens Energy for the hardware and acquired Atomic Alchemy as an insurance policy to ensure a reactor is live by the July deadline. All of this is supported by recent bipartisan bills passing with supermajorities and a 1.2 billion dollar war chest that allows them to execute without needing to dilute shareholders. Chances are 1 of those 3 will hit the deadline. They have the main Aurora, Pluto, and VIPR. Possibility the do miss the deadline on Aurora but chances are VIPR (isn’t for power) will succeed. That will still show a win because VIPR will create some revenue. Decided for yourself.
I’ve been watching Oklo and checking on them daily for a long time now. I’ve dug very deep… I’ve put together a list of why you should pay attention closely to Oklo. It’s information and take from it what you would like. I. The "Cash Fortress" & Inside Moves • The War Chest: Over $1.2 billion in cash and marketable securities as of 2026. • The Runway: An annual burn rate of ~$80M gives them a 14+ year safety net (they won't go broke before the 2026 deadline). • The Trust Transfer: Founders (Jacob DeWitte) moving millions of shares into Family Trusts and GRATs—signaling generational holding rather than an exit. • Sam Altman’s Skin: his reputation as the "King of AI" is tied to Oklo’s success as the power source for OpenAI. II. The "Unfair" Institutional Backing • Institutional Shield: 85.03% of the company is owned by banks/funds, creating a massive floor. • The Big Three: * BlackRock: Largest holder; recently increased position by 72% (14.8M shares). • Vanguard: Holds 11.6M shares; increased position by 33%. • Mirae Asset: The tech-specialist; increased holdings by 71% (7.8M shares). • Brokers: Consensus "Strong Buy" from top analyst desks with price targets clearing $100–$130 in the near term. III. The Government "Fast-Track" • 3 out of 11: Oklo holds 3 separate slots in the DOE Reactor Pilot Program (Aurora, Pluto, and Atomic Alchemy). • The DOE Loophole: Operating on federal land in Idaho allows them to bypass slow NRC commercial licensing and use DOE Authorization to hit the July 4th deadline. • The Former Board Member: Current Secretary of Energy Chris Wright is a former Oklo Board member; he knows the blueprints and the team personally. • Legislative Tailwinds: The ARC Act and the 397–28 House vote prove that both parties are throwing billions at advanced nuclear to win the AI race. • Freedom 250: Trump’s Executive Order makes the July 4, 2026 anniversary a "national mandate," effectively making Oklo's success a government priority. IV. Physical Execution & Real Tech • The Groundbreaking: Unlike "PowerPoint companies," Oklo already broke ground at the Idaho National Lab (September 2025). • The Hardware Partner: A binding contract with Siemens Energy to manufacture the turbines and power conversion systems—hardware is already being built. • Fuel Independence: DOE award for the Tennessee Fuel Recycling plant allows them to turn "waste" into their own gas station, bypassing uranium shortages. • Atomic Alchemy: The $25M acquisition of this subsidiary provides an "insurance policy" with a simpler reactor that can be turned on by July 4th if the big one hits a snag. V. The "Big Tech" Revenue Lock • The Meta Deal: A massive 1.2GW power campus agreement. • The Prepayment: Meta provided upfront funding to secure early procurement, proving that the world's biggest data center buyers trust Oklo's delivery. • The Mandate: The new Executive Order requiring AI centers to generate their own power turns Oklo from a "nice to have" into a "must have" for Big Tech. VI. Market Indicators • The $61 Support: Proven "institutional floor" where the big banks' algorithms trigger massive buy orders. • Sector Divergence: NuScale (SMR) is failing due to lawsuits/cash burn, while Oklo is gaining share as the "Tech-First" leader. • NVIDIA Alignment: NVIDIA’s partnership with the Idaho Lab to use AI to speed up reactor design directly benefits the Oklo projects on-site.
$OKLO, there was a -70% drawdown recently and there are significant catalysts expected in **1H 2026**, with $126 average PT. Here are some that I recently noted: * DOE Plutonium Awards ([“early 2026”](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/8-big-wins-nuclear-trump-administrations-first-year)) * Incremental PPA conversion on 18GW pipeline * RPP milestones on the 3 Fuel / 3 Reactor projects * First Revenue from INL Radioisotope production * NRC [Draft Decision on PDC](https://www.reddit.com/r/OKLOSTOCK/s/zTuKVJefxK) by 3/20 * VIPR Criticality by DOE’s 7/4/26 deadline * I would also point to what Caroline DeWitte [had recently called out](https://www.reddit.com/r/OKLOSTOCK/s/nCiRfqflAn) in the Founder AMA below: > We expect to hit some real physical milestones too. We have had one groundbreaking announcement already but **I would anticipate by mid-2026 having done geotechnical site analysis work at a number of locations to start construction in those places**. We have exciting expectations out of our 3 DOE Reactor Pilot Program projects and our 3 DOE Fuel Pilot Program projects. > We're limited in what we can say, but I think I can say we expect it to be an exciting and busy 12 months
$OKLO, there are a lot of catalysts expected in **1H 2026**, with $126 average PT. Here are some that I recently noted: * DOE Plutonium Awards ([“early 2026”](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/8-big-wins-nuclear-trump-administrations-first-year)) * Incremental PPA conversion on 18GW pipeline * RPP milestones on the 3 Fuel / 3 Reactor projects * First Revenue from INL Radioisotope production * NRC [Draft Decision on PDC](https://www.reddit.com/r/OKLOSTOCK/s/zTuKVJefxK) by 3/20 * VIPR Criticality by DOE’s 7/4/26 deadline * I would also point to what Caroline DeWitte [had recently called out](https://www.reddit.com/r/OKLOSTOCK/s/nCiRfqflAn) in the Founder AMA below: > We expect to hit some real physical milestones too. We have had one groundbreaking announcement already but **I would anticipate by mid-2026 having done geotechnical site analysis work at a number of locations to start construction in those places**. We have exciting expectations out of our 3 DOE Reactor Pilot Program projects and our 3 DOE Fuel Pilot Program projects. > We're limited in what we can say, but I think I can say we expect it to be an exciting and busy 12 months.
Will be interesting to see what comes of this... That company seems to be fully porting into sweet talking the administration...and suing the NRC no less... In the age of rump, vapor ware and bribes seem to go a long way.
I chose UUUU over $OKLO. I will open a swing in $OKLO around June for NRC approval!
Right, Aurora 1 at INL is slated to be a full commercial reactor, likely to supply electricity to Idaho Falls, ID. Every NOAK build following will take 6-18 months of NRC review, using Aurora 1 as the “reference application”. OKLO announced that they will beginning [multi-site prep at other location this year](https://www.reddit.com/r/OKLOSTOCK/s/Qnz0aBPE8G), so there will be a lot of milestones to come in 2026!
Late 2027 / Early 2028: Target for the INL plant to enter commercial operation. If this works out according to plan it will be a great success. However, this would not mean that OKLO can start building SMRs. The INL plant falls under the DOE Reactor Pilot Program and can operate under simplified authorisation. To build “normal” plants, OKLO will need to get authorisation from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The first NRC-authorized commercial plant (Meta Campus, first phase) is targeted to come online by 2030. This is best case scenario. It might or might not work out.
They can (and are) actively building per the DOE’s RPP program, and can operate the reactor non-commercially without NRC oversight. Per the latest NRC/DOE MOU, there will be a fast-tracked NRC license at the end, after Aurora is already build and running, with subsequent licenses at other sites taking 6-18 months. A lot has changed in the regulatory landscape in the last year, as a result of EOs.
NuScale’s design certification doesn’t mean much anymore- having an approved design hasn’t translated into customers or real projects, and interest in their product has clearly cooled. Oklo, on the other hand, is actually moving forward: they landed 3 of the 11 Reactor Pilot Program projects, which is a big signal of DOE confidence. Under that program, the DOE runs the early stages of construction, with a fast-tracked NRC review coming at the end. That gives Oklo a real shot at being one of the first to actually put power on the grid, even if NuScale looks “ahead” on paper with their NRC certification. Oklo also has a growing order book with committed and conditional power agreements, and a strong cash position to support the near-term buildout. Their build-own-operate model is a huge advantage for scaling without dilution- by owning the reactors and selling power under long-term contracts, they create predictable cash flows that can be used to raise project-level debt. That means future units can be financed mostly with debt, not new equity. Each Aurora is small, standardized, and deployable at multiple sites, so they can stack projects and scale quickly. As they build operating history, financing gets easier, costs come down, and the first units basically fund the next ones. On top of that, Oklo isn’t just about power. Their work in nuclear fuel recycling and advanced fuel fabrication, plus radioisotope production through Atomic Alchemy, gives them multiple revenue streams that NuScale doesn’t have. That makes them more than just a reactor company- it’s a vertically integrated nuclear platform that can scale and fund itself over time, not just hit regulatory milestones.
We’re aligned on the role of INL- it’s a test and demonstration reactor intended to generate real operating data and de-risk the NRC path, with the option to convert to commercial operation after obtaining the appropriate license. Where we differ is on whether Part 50 is the ‘right’ benchmark for Oklo. TerraPower, Kairos, and X-energy all selected Part 50 because their designs, scale, funding structures, and host arrangements align with a traditional utility-style licensing model. Oklo’s strategy is deliberately different: prove a small, factory-fabricable fast reactor in operation first, then pursue commercial authorization with substantially reduced design and licensing uncertainty. That’s the core distinction. Oklo isn’t behind because it avoided Part 50- it avoided front-loading regulatory risk before the design was operationally validated. The RPP/MOU framework allows that validation to occur under DOE authority, after which NRC licensing becomes a confirmation and transition step rather than a speculative, pre-construction gate. Different designs, different risk profiles, different optimal regulatory paths.
Now you are correct. The INL reactor is a test and demonstration reactor which should provide performance data to support an NRC design certification under Part 52 or perhaps Part 53 when it is finalized. It may also be converted to commercial use after obtaining an NRC operating license. In contrast to to Oklo, TerraPower, Kairos, and X-Energy are all obtaining NRC licenses under Part 50 and are ahead of schedule to start construction of their reactors. Part 50 is an incremental process well suited for first-of-kind designs. Part 52 is for mature NRC certified reactor designs. Oklo could have gone through the Part 52 process for a COLA but would have first had to mature their design.
No one is claiming a reactor can sell power into the commercial grid without an NRC license… that’s not the point in dispute. The distinction is when and how the NRC licensing burden is carried. Under the RPP/MOU framework, Oklo can design, construct, and operate a non-commercial reactor at INL under DOE authority, generating operational data and validating the full system before seeking commercial authorization. Prior to this framework, Oklo would have been forced into a COLA-first path with incremental NRC approvals before construction or operation. The MOU allows NRC to rely on DOE-accepted analyses and documentation, which materially reduces duplication, regulatory risk, and timeline uncertainty at the back end. The NRC license is still required for grid sales- but it becomes a transition step after an operating reactor exists, not a gate that must be cleared before anything can be built or run.
Under the law, commercial reactors that connect to the grid must be licensed by NRC. A DOE reactor can provide power to itself and government operations. It can not sell power into the commercial grid without an NRC license. All the MOU does is provide the framework for NRC to accept certain DOE documents as complete in an NRC licensing process. It does not allow a DOE owned reactor or one operating on a DOE site to sell into the commercial grid without a license. If DOE were to do that, they would be in violation of the Energy Reorganization Act and would likely be sued by the current nuclear utilities.
Not true. DOE authorization only applies to DOE sites, contactors and reactors. If they want to sell power into the grid, they need an NRC license. For certain safety analyses, DOE and NRC are cooperating just like NRC and Canada. But DOE licensing is not transparent, has no adjudicatory process, and not eligible for Price Anderson nuclear liability insurance. No utility would build one without NRC licensing.
They are tied to the recent revelation of the current government repealing laws regulating groundwater risk assessments for nuclear projects. They got denied their first attempt at an NRC license in part due to… groundwater contamination risks. Even if their design is safe in that regard, that’s utterly terrible publicity that reads like they are relying on existing safety regulations being repealed.
They don’t need to, that’s the old framework. In the DOE’s RPP, they are free to build and operate with a streamlined NRC review at the tail end.
Dude, your analysis is missing the most critical factor: REALITY. Let’s fact-check your points: 1. Fuel (The Elephant in the Room): You ignored the biggest bottleneck. Oklo needs HALEU. Where are they getting it? Russia? The U.S. supply chain for HALEU is years away. No fuel = No power in 2027. IMSR uses Standard LEU. The supply chain already exists globally. Terrestrial Energy can fuel their reactors TODAY. Oklo is buying a Ferrari without gas stations. 2. Regulatory Track Record: Oklo’s application was denied by the NRC before. They are starting over. Terrestrial Energy (IMSR) already has its Principal Design Criteria (PDC) approved by the NRC (Standard Review Plan). They are moving straight to the Construction Permit (CP) with a regulatory path that actually works. 3. "Proven" Tech? You say Oklo is "proven"? Their design relies on liquid metal fast reactors which have a history of complex maintenance issues. IMSR is based on MSR tech proven at ORNL, but modernized. Plus, IMSR produces High-Temperature Heat (Industrial Heat), not just electricity. This opens up markets for hydrogen, ammonia, and desalination that Oklo can’t touch. 4. Business Model: "Only selling designs" is a feature, not a bug. It’s called Capital Efficiency. IMSR is the "ARM of Nuclear" — licensing tech to massive operators like OPG or DL E&C. Oklo trying to build, own, and operate everything (Utility model) is a massive CAPEX trap. Good luck burning that $2.3B when delays happen (and they will). 5. 2027 Deployment? Don't make me laugh. Without HALEU and a finalized NRC license, 2027 is a pipe dream. IMSR's early 2030s target is realistic and backed by actual industrial partners, not just hype. Stop looking at the hype and start looking at the physics and supply chain. IMSR is the real industrial solution.
Has NRC given any approvals or comments on the design? A design is a very small part of the process
Market float doesn’t define the technology. Aurora is under construction at a DOE site, progressing through NRC licensing, and has signed PPAs. This is far beyond a “lottery ticket.” Site authorization at INL isn’t just a checkbox… it’s real-world deployment readiness for a FOAK reactor. Licensing and fuel pathways are actively in motion. Saying “no proven product” ignores that first units in nuclear are always prototypes by definition. Demonstrating one working reactor proves the design and opens the door for replication. Bag-holding? I’m a long term investor and held the stock for over a year.
Lol, Aurora is being built… Oklo has DOE site authorization at INL and is actively progressing through NRC licensing. Calling it “not built” ignores actual construction and regulatory milestones. Regulatory approvals are in process. Oklo isn’t waiting for “someday”- they’re advancing licensing, preparing fuel pathways, and clearing the necessary hurdles for FOA deployment. That’s literally real-world execution… not “marketing hype”… Revenue timelines don’t invalidate the tech. First units in advanced nuclear always take years to scale. Getting Aurora operational proves the design and unlocks future deployments. Market float? That doesn’t matter. Oklo has signed customers, PPAs, and a clear path forward. Marketing talk isn’t what’s happening on the ground… again, the reactor is being built.
Not to my knowledge. That’s what the NRC license is needed for - to receive fuel. It’s also what the DOE permit is for - to make a prototype on a controlled government range with government safety oversight and control.
>Myriad Uranium Corp in a class all by itself inside the barren US with its Copper Mountain project in Wyoming...Accelerated permitting timeline from Wyoming...only need 2 years of development to see big return Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) be like: ...right, 2 years, you betcha. Myriad Uranium Copper Mountain project in Wyoming is regulated by the State of Wyoming, as an agreement state, but still requires NRC permits for ISR operations (injecting fluids into the ground) which Myriad is still only in the planning phase for. Myriad got a federal permit late 2025 to continue exploration and development and their current approved timeline has a plan of operation for 222 testing boreholes in 2026 with an initial MRE (mineral resource estimate) late 2026. It'll probably be 4-12 years before the completion of the development phase.
Yeah, way too many people pouring money in on the news of them being approved to build a test reactor at INL… They don’t realize that INL’s test range was literally built to test reactors the DOE and NRC deemed too risky for initial use near populated areas. The experimental reactors tested there have a pretty high rate of failure and even meltdown. It’s basically the “you can build here so that *when* you mess up, you’ll only kill your own employees” area.
Honestly though, if people know anything about nuclear energy, they know to be terrified of OKLOs designs. Not to mention they still haven’t been able to answer safety-sensitive issues brought up by the NRC regarding their core geometry, reactivity, and potential neutron flux issues.
NIMBY isn’t as much of a thing anymore… coincidentally, Oklo’s head of business development just posted this: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/opinions/nuclear-in-my-backyard/ Also, the NRC/DOE MOU gave the DOE full authority via the reactor pilot program to allow oversight on full design, construction and operation of FOAK reactors, with a streamlined NRC license at the tail end for commercialization… times are drastically changing- I think you will be very surprised in the next three years.
Oklo is promising because they have a clear regulatory path with the NRC and are moving toward a combined license application with no major gaps flagged. Their design has been reviewed on an accelerated timeline showing modern nuclear licensing can work faster than the old model. They plan to build own and operate reactors and sell power under long term contracts creating recurring revenue. They are also working with national labs on fast spectrum reactor fuel and leveraging real experimental data to validate the approach. Licensing progress regulatory acceptance a direct power sales model and technical validation give Oklo real substance beyond a cool story.
Oklo’s reactors are sodium cooled fast reactors, which are very different from traditional water cooled nuclear plants. They operate at low pressure and are designed to be inherently and passively safe, meaning the reactor naturally shuts itself down if temperatures rise, without needing pumps, power, or operator action. There is no high pressure water or steam, so the failure modes that drove past nuclear accidents simply do not exist here. Sodium does introduce its own risks, but those are well understood, non nuclear, and have decades of operating history. Because of this, a minor issue would not shut the program down for years. The NRC process is meant to identify and resolve safety questions before operation. Once licensed, these reactors are designed so that worst case scenarios are fundamentally bounded and manageable.
Power wise? I have a position in UUUU and BW. Also watching news from NRC since Trump just switched the head.
The DOD can, and has, told the NRC to fuck off multiple times in the past.
The DOD wanting it doesn't make the NRC license faster. Doesn't make the reactor technology work. Doesn't collapse a multi-year timeline into now. The hyperscalers want power too. They're not waiting for Oklo. They're signing 15-year binding contracts with operators who can deliver in 2026.
It's not a contract. It's a Notice of Intent to Award, contingent on NRC licensing that doesn't exist.
If you want to buy a company with zero revenue, no operating reactors, a denied NRC license that's not yet been resubmitted, and a commercialization timeline measured in years (assuming everything goes right), by all means. The thesis isn't that nuclear power is bad. Nuclear power is fine. The thesis is that the market is paying $15-16 billion for a company that might deliver electrons in the 2030s while paying less for companies that are delivering electrons now. Oklo's value depends on: successful NRC licensing (failed once), first-of-a-kind reactor construction (never done at commercial scale in the U.S.), supply chains that don't exist yet, cost structures that are theoretical, and demand that persists long enough for any of this to matter. Applied Digital's value depends on: delivering buildings on schedule (already doing it), collecting rent from CoreWeave and a hyperscaler (already contracted), and not screwing up construction (100 MW delivered, more in progress). One of these is a bet on execution against observable milestones. The other is a bet on a narrative that can't be tested for years. The hyperscalers need power now. They're signing 15-year leases with operators who can deliver in 2026. They're not waiting for SMRs that might come online in 2032. The demand is real. The question is who captures it. Oklo can't capture demand that arrives before they exist. But if you think the market is right to pay more for promises than for contracts, Oklo is available.
You’re arguing against a strawman. No one serious is claiming a criticality experiment is a finished reactor… that’s not how nuclear development has ever worked. **Criticality experiments are a prerequisite to reactor design, not a substitute for it.** They generate benchmark data that feeds directly into neutronics models, safety margins, and licensing analyses. Every fast reactor program (EBR-II, FFTF, Phenix, BN-series) followed this exact sequence. Calling that “vaporware” misunderstands the nuclear design process. You don’t finalize a plutonium fast-spectrum core before validating the physics… you do exactly what Oklo is doing now, with DOE/NNSA labs, under oversight. On Aurora: the 2022 NRC denial was explicitly about **application completeness**, not a finding that Oklo’s design was unsafe or unworkable. The NRC said Oklo failed to provide sufficient detail *in that submission*, not that the safety case was invalid. That distinction matters, and Oklo has publicly acknowledged it and restructured their licensing approach since then. And yes- NRC licensing takes time. That’s true for **every** new reactor class, including TerraPower, Kairos, and X-energy. The difference is Oklo is now generating the exact experimental data the NRC expects *before* locking a design and submitting again. Saying “Pluto isn’t finalized yet” isn’t a knock… it’s literally the point of doing this work now.
Criticality experiments are a *long* way off from reactor design, let alone construction. That’s basically the “this won’t kill us if we build it” phase. Selling a criticality experiment as a reactor design is the very definition of vaporware - they’re continuing to try to sell something that doesn’t actually exist. The NRC license still has to be pursued, and that’s a 5-10 year process. As for Aurora; the NRC ruling *explicitly* denied their application for “lack of information regarding safety or handling procedures”. The NRC even took the time to try to help OKLO identify and correct these gaps in design and safety elements - and OKLO still failed to address any. https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/news/2022/22-002.pdf The NRC has not yet reviewed Pluto’s design because there is none finalized.
This argument is stuck in the past. Oklo just conducted [publicly disclosed fast-spectrum plutonium criticality experiments in collaboration with Los Alamos National Laboratory under DOE oversight](https://oklo.com/newsroom/news-details/2025/Oklo-and-Los-Alamos-National-Lab-Conduct-Fast-Spectrum-Plutonium-Criticality-Experiment/default.aspx), producing real benchmark data on plutonium behavior and inherent safety characteristics for the Pluto reactor. That’s not classified vaporware… that’s modern, experimentally validated physics being generated in the open and fed directly into a licensing-grade safety case. The 2022 NRC denial wasn’t about unsafe plutonium handling… it was about application completeness and process, which Oklo has openly acknowledged and corrected. Since then they’ve been advancing NRC engagement, getting principal design criteria accepted for review, and working directly with DOE/NNSA labs on the exact criticality and safety questions skeptics claim they can’t address. The idea that fast reactors can’t have meaningful public technical progress because “everything is classified” just isn’t true anymore and Oklo’s recent LANL work is a clear counterexample.
I’m highly skeptical they will be awarded Pu contracts due to their lack of comprehensive criticality safety protocols and the fact that their NRC denial in 2022 was concerned with their possession of classified methods relating to plutonium production. There’s also basically no info about Pluto because pretty much everything about fast breeder reactors is highly classified due to the nuclear proliferation risk/national security concerns. These reactors will pretty much never be allowed to have meaningful publicly available.
The Natrium plants in the Meta deal are being developed jointly by TerraPower and GE Vernova (GEV) as it’s based off the GE PRISM design. The leading advanced reactor developers are all privately held (TerraPower, Kairos Power, and X-energy). These companies are the closest to commercial deployment. Kairos Power has two construction permits from the NRC and is actively [building their plants](https://kairospower.com/internal_updates/clean-electricity-tennessee-valley/). TerraPower should receive their construction permit this year. X-energy’s construction permit application is currently under review. GE Vernova is also building their BWRX-300 in Canada and have a construction permit application in review with the NRC as well. Best litmus test right now for advanced reactor developers are licensing progress (construction permit applications require submittal of a preliminary safety analysis report that is available to the public and shows a level of maturity of reactor design) and hardware/construction progress (Kairos and TerraPower are the leaders here, with Kairos already having [operated](https://kairospower.com/internal_updates/license-to-build-progress-on-hermes-and-the-etu-series/) a non-nuclear version of their reactor). Will be interesting to see if the public companies can compete with the privately held ones. Best publicly available options are likely GEV, who are developing Natrium and their own BWRX-300, and BWXT, who are looking to be a fuel fabricator for advanced reactors and are the leaders in microreactor development.
This was my point. Companies can say a lot, but people underestimate how big of a hurdle the NRC approval can be. Having that box checked is a major piece of the puzzle. Even if they are doing the part 50 process (instead of part 52 like what AP1000 pursued), this just means they can build. Doesn’t authorize commercial operation just yet. That comes later as you “license what you’ve built”.
The first reactors to put electrons on the grid will likely either be from [Kairos Power](https://kairospower.com/internal_updates/clean-electricity-tennessee-valley/) or TerraPower. No other companies are as far along as they are in construction, licensing with the NRC, and both companies have been building and testing hardware for nearly a decade now to build up manufacturing, assembly, and operational knowledge. Will be interesting to see if any of the publicly traded advanced reactor developers can compete with the privately funded ones. Best bets are likely BWXT and GE Vernova (Natrium is a joint project between GE Vernova and TerraPower).
Only reactors with construction permits from the NRC are Kairos Power’s Hermes 1 (test reactor) and Hermes 2 (demonstration reactor). Kairos has bought down a lot of risk by getting through the permitting process twice already and appears to be all in on vertical integration. https://kairospower.com/internal_updates/clean-electricity-tennessee-valley/ Natura Resources also received a construction permit for their MSRR (research reactor) but have stated they may hold off on working with the NRC since they were selected for the DOE Reactor Pilot Program. https://www.naturaresources.com/natura-to-pursue-doe-authorization-for-msr-1-under-new-ota-advancing-its-reactor-towards-criticality-through-doe-s-pilot-program TerraPower should receive their construction permit for their first Natrium plant this year. https://www.ans.org/news/2025-12-03/article-7590/nrc-completes-safety-review-for-terrapowers-kemmerer-project/
This is a misread. Oklo isn’t “fighting” the NRC, they’re using the established appeals process to clarify novel licensing questions for a FOAK reactor. That’s normal for advanced nuclear. AP1000 is a proven large-scale LWR, but it’s expensive, slow, and not what data centers want. Oklo is targeting a different market entirely: smaller, faster, firm power with a build-own-operate model. Brookfield and Cameco are solid, but they’re not solving the same problem.
Oklo thinks they're better than the regulator, and they're trying to fight the NRC who is trying to help them. It's not a productive use of anybody's time or money. Brookfield and cameco are far better picks because the AP1000 is going to be the standard American reactor and will be used where better Chinese and Russian offerings are blocked.
I get that nothing is technically “real” until power is flowing. But this isn’t hype. Meta signed a binding energy purchase agreement with Oklo that includes prepayment for power and early project funding to develop a 1.2 GW nuclear campus in Ohio. Oklo also has DOE-approved fuel facility design agreements, is part of DOE advanced nuclear pilot projects, and has cleared site permits and environmental compliance steps for their first commercial site. They’re advancing the combined license process with the NRC and running advanced fuel recycling demos with Argonne and Idaho labs. This is real capital, real regulatory progress, and real hardware in motion, not speculation or marketing.
NuScale touts being “further along” because it has NRC design approval for its SMR modules, but design approval isn’t the same as actually building and operating reactors. Utilities still need separate construction and operating licenses for every site, which adds years and extra costs before any revenue flows. Most buyers aren’t excited about buying a decades-old Gen 3 design with a history of executional delays and cost overruns. Oklo, on the other hand, is pursuing a combined license route, which bundles design, construction, and operation into one review and can cut years off deployment timelines, and they already have real DOE site permits, pilot programs, and partnerships in motion. NuScale’s approach also keeps them selling designs to utilities rather than owning the assets, meaning slower, more capital-intensive rollouts. Oklo’s build-own-operate model is hyper scalable. Once the first plants are operational, they can replicate that model across multiple sites with PPA revenue streams from partners like Meta and data center operators, giving Oklo a structural scaling advantage most SMR plays don’t have.
My academic background is related to hydropower and I’m kind of the same way: Until I start seeing FERC and NRC operating licenses flying, I’m not touching any reactor companies with a 10-foot pole.
I think if they build tons of SMRs on bases, the dept of war becomes the regulatory body and they sidestep the NRC, so it can happen faster than you might think
The key difference here is that Oklo is part of the DOE’s Regulatory Pilot Program (RPP), which is explicitly designed to accelerate first-of-a-kind reactor licensing. That puts them well outside the normal multi-decade nuclear timeline. The Idaho site isn’t a random greenfield project; it’s a DOE-controlled site with an existing regulatory framework. With a standardized design, DOE support, and active NRC engagement, their target for first deployment around 2027 is aggressive, yes, but realistic within this unique accelerated program. Dismissing it as “not real” or hype misses the nuance: this isn’t just a corporate wish list, it’s a high-risk, high-upside play precisely because they are breaking the usual nuclear mold. Execution risk exists, but the upside comes from being ahead of the pack on licensing, DOE alignment, and site readiness.
This is just **flat wrong** on timelines. Oklo is targeting first deployment in 2027, with NRC engagement already underway for a specific site and design. Rolls-Royce SMR is still in design approval and site selection mode in the UK… first units aren’t expected until the early–mid 2030s at best. That’s not “coming online sooner,” that’s 5+ years later. Also, RYCEY isn’t a core U.S. domestic nuclear supplier. U.S. demand growth (AI, data centers, defense, DOE sites) will heavily favor American-licensed, American-built, fuel-secure operators. Oklo is aligned with DOE, U.S. regulators, and domestic fuel strategy. Rolls-Royce will absolutely have a role globally, but it won’t be the first mover or dominant player in the U.S.
Agree, and I’d go further-the “pre-revenue” critique misses the entire point of what Oklo is building. This isn’t an app, it’s regulated nuclear infrastructure. The real signal is that trillion-dollar companies with massive energy needs are engaging before revenue exists, because they understand the bottleneck coming. Add in the caliber of people who’ve been involved with Oklo and the fact that the DOE and NRC processes are being actively navigated, and it’s hard to argue this is anything close to a scam. There’s execution risk, sure… but that’s exactly why the upside exists. By the time revenue shows up, the obvious part of the trade is gone.
That’s exactly what I’m saying- Oklo and the other RPP companies can design, build and run the reactors, learn along the way and then submits a fast-tracked version at the tail end for commercialization, essentially “getting credit” from the DOE for their work. It’s all a part of the new DOE/NRC MOU, where the DOE is given more oversight throughout the process.
The DOE doesn’t approve for commercial operation. Read the Oklo submittals to the NRC. Everything is met with the response that not enough information was provided. It’s clear their design is much more conceptual than there leading people to believe.
If you think that Oklo will have a reactor operational in 2-3 years I have a brudge to sell you. Even with all the streamlining of the NRC that's just not gonna happen. They can't just point to EBR2 and say "look we have done a metal cooled fast reactor before, now give us permission" lmao, they are two whole different concepts and they haven't gotten passed even the easiest step yet. I'm bullish on the technology but all this over-hyped and impossible timelines is gonna do more harm than good, just invest in the suppliers of all the SMR's because 9/10 won't make it.
That take confuses pre-revenue with hypothetical. Oklo isn’t inventing new physics… it’s applying proven fast-reactor technology that already operated successfully for decades. The risk isn’t “will this work,” it’s “how fast can they license, build, and scale it.” Nuclear companies don’t earn revenue until after NRC approval and construction, so pointing to zero revenue at this stage just shows a lack of understanding of the industry. Oklo already has a defined fuel pathway, an active NRC licensing process, secured sites, DOE backing, and signed customer agreements. The real question isn’t whether Oklo can build a reactor… it’s whether the market is underpricing how early they are in front of a massive power demand curve. Long-term investors get that. Hand-waving it away as “hypothetical” is just lazy analysis.
That authority was recently given to DOE as a part of the reactor pilot program, NRC licensing gets streamlines at the tail end of the process, even after the reactor is built and running.
Did you see the recent DOE/NRC MOU? Initial NRC applications essentially don’t matter at all anymore after the creation of the DOE’s RPP… candidates will get streamlined licensing after their advanced reactors are already built and running at INL.
1. *NRC 2. They are just taking the EBR-II reactor that ran at INL and building it for commercial applications. SFRs have already been built before and are not new technology nor is spent fuel pellet recycling. Try again.
No they don’t. They don’t even have an NRC approved design.
Which doesn’t matter at all anymore after the creation of the DOE’s RPP… no one wants NuScale’s old, gen-3 product and history of executional failure. RPP candidiates will get streamlined licensing after their advanced reactors are built and running, per the DOE/NRC MOU.
If by close you mean; have yet to get NRC approval for any operations… And just reapplied for licensure in September in a process that takes 5-10 years. Then yeah, sure, they’re close.
The NRC demolished their pre-application.
The real powerhouse reactor builders aren't public. That's the problem ge hitachi is a serious one, and mayyyyybe the underdog terrestrial enrgy ISMR but they are trying to do a molten salt reactor, idk how the engineers will prove to the NRC that the salt won't corrode their parts after long time, it's only been done in small lab settings, not industrial scale. Terrapower is also a contender but i don't see them publicly traded.
Not even that: Their NRC operating license was denied the first time around on the grounds that they never provided any form of detailed information about their actual reactor design or mode of operation - much less criticality or other risks. The denial is a good read. https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/news/2022/22-002.pdf TLDR: there were no safety findings because OKLO failed to provide any actual details on safety. They’re going through licensing again now, but the first time took over 5 years only to get a letter about how they aren’t answering questions about safety critical concerns. I’m pretty sure they don’t actually know how to design, let alone build, a nuclear reactor.
No profits Missed earnings No approval from NRC Hell yeah
That comparison actually proves the opposite. Data centers are hard because they’re private, local-zoned, grid-constrained projects with no national security priority. HALEU enrichment is federally backed, centrally sited, and explicitly designated as a national security and energy-security imperative. The U.S. already built and operated enrichment at scale for decades (Paducah, Portsmouth) and is restarting it with DOE funding, long-term offtake guarantees, and NRC-defined pathways. These facilities don’t depend on speculative demand… they’re being built because without them, the U.S. nuclear sector literally cannot function. That’s a very different risk profile than a hyperscaler trying to secure power in Northern Virginia.
NRC is currently finalizing the review process for something like 15 more reactors. Theres 4 alone at the Fermi hypergrid project. All of these data centers have to provide their own power. GE has a SMR being green lit
# OKLO: Time to short it? [OKLO Inc (NYSE) 13B marketcap](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OKLO/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIekvuT6GnGP7BPwlVQIBtT6XPpalRMNmgHQ967gcTiCuUO2SKSHmQatzNF9wCliIX8ZFJ3nVWZuVSgIFiz0OzdYHXN3IUCw3CWlRc5Ne9hAVM18vG9KctWHPzUCJ3bJxry1PAKLsNdAOQj2hPpVQsuWg3wo_oC6bDSgUyrJwPon) Alright fellow degenerates, I went down the OKLO rabbit hole and… I don’t see the bull case matching the current price. I would be curious to hear any counter arguments before I go all in on puts 🤡 Not financial advice, just connecting dots. ## The Hype Machine Why OKLO is mooning: - Sam Altman involvement - Government buzz around nuclear - AI / data center energy narrative What OKLO actually has: - No operating reactor - No commercial power - No revenue from electricity Right now this thing is basically trading on vibes and optionality. ## Nuclear = Slow AF This is not software. **This is nuclear.** Even by Oklo’s own timeline: - They’re hoping for a pilot unit around mid-to-late 2026 - They do NOT have full NRC approval - Their first NRC application was literally rejected in 2022 for lack of detail First of a kind nuclear projects usually take many years from licensing → construction → testing → operation. Commercial anything before 2027–2028+ looks very optimistic at best. ## Nuclear = Insanely Expensive OKLO: - No operating cash flow - No product revenue - Massive future capital requirements - Very real dilution risk coming long before profits exist High valuation + no revenue + massive capex = 🚩🚩🚩 ## Insiders Bailing This part is wild. There’s been heavy insider selling by top execs at these elevated prices as recently as end of December: CEO, CFO, other high-ranking insiders. Receipts: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/OKLO/insider-trades No meaningful insider buying to offset it... They’re selling the dream while Reddit is buying it. ## The Disconnect Market is pricing OKLO like: > proven clean-energy company Reality is: > early-stage nuclear startup with no reactor, no revenue, no license Not saying it goes to zero, but the risk/reward on this thing feels completely upside down from here.
Duke Power applied to the NRC to build a bunch of small reactors in North Carolina
NuScale’s NRC design certification hasn’t translated into real projects or strong customer interest, while Oklo is actively moving forward. They secured 3 of 11 DOE Reactor Pilot Program projects, giving them DOE backing and a fast-tracked path to grid-ready reactors. Oklo also has a growing order book, solid cash reserves, and a build-own-operate model that enables scaling with debt rather than new equity. Their small, standardized Aurora reactors can be deployed at multiple sites, with early units funding later ones as operating history builds. Beyond power, Oklo has multiple revenue streams- including fuel recycling, advanced fuel fabrication, and radioisotope production… making them a vertically integrated nuclear platform, not just a reactor developer.
Doesn’t really change anything. Venezuela has *maybe* (only sources are a spotty assay from about 60 years ago) around 42,000 tons of ore reserves… But it is *incredibly* terrible quality uranium phosphate. We’re talking yields of >0.01% of usable material per ton, oh… and the fact that refining phosphatic uranium *has never been attempted, let alone done*. There are no refining methods in existence. Those have to be invented first. The phosphate makes things even more complicated and dangerous due to phosphorus chemistry being *particularly* nasty (toxic, spontaneously combustible, and caustic), coupled with Uranium’s equally potent pyrophoric properties make that ore a disaster in waiting. Current estimates are that out of that 42,000 tons of ore, only 50 tons are even viable for refining. Compare that to Canada’s high grade ore reserves of >588,000 tons. That all aside, almost all Uranium mining operations have been missing their targets by double digit percentages for the past year, it also takes decades for reactors to be built, and many of the designs causing the hype haven’t even passed design review let alone NRC licensing approval. TLDR; everyone’s getting hyped about a crappy supply possibility that would be tied to crimes against humanity, and demand that doesn’t actually exist yet, and won’t for decades. Don’t get me wrong, demand for U will go up… maybe 10-15 years from now.
The DOE’s Reactor Pilot program has 11 advanced reactor projects aiming to reach criticality by 7/4 next year. NRC has given the DOE authority to allow these companies to construct and test, with that information collected to be used for streamlined licensing reviews. Once the RPP reactors are built (whoever succeeds) subsequent review windows for new reactor sites are 18 months or less under the new ADVANCE Act and EO guidance.
A lot of the bullish arguments around Oklo collapse once you look at the actual sequence of how nuclear projects move from paper to reality. First, Oklo’s application was outright rejected at the NRC Licensing Review Committee stage, meaning it was not even accepted for detailed technical review. That’s unusual in the industry and signals fundamental deficiencies, not minor edits. After a rejection like that, a company doesn’t “resume” the process — it has to produce a materially revised application before it can even re-enter the queue. Once resubmitted, the acceptance review alone typically takes 6–12 months. If accepted, a first-of-a-kind reactor then faces 3–5+ years of full safety and environmental review, with repeated requests for additional information, redesigns, and clarifications. Only after that can a construction authorization even be considered — and that still isn’t permission to build immediately. Post-approval comes another long phase: site approvals, environmental work, financing, safeguards, security planning, emergency response planning, inspections, and contracting with certified nuclear suppliers. Critical components aren’t off-the-shelf. Specialized reactor hardware, fuel-handling systems, containment structures, nuclear-grade concrete, and precision manufacturing all require qualified vendors, audited processes, and regulator sign-off. Some of this equipment — including specialized centrifuge-based and fuel-cycle infrastructure — has multi-year manufacturing lead times and costs hundreds of millions of dollars. This is why the fuel argument is misplaced. When people talk about the government “allocating plutonium,” they’re really talking about HALEU fuel. HALEU is scarce and prioritized for licensed, operating, or near-term reactors, not companies with no reactor, no site, no customers, and no NRC license. Oklo is decades away from needing fuel, so allocating it to them now would make no sense. Fuel follows readiness — not stories. The same disconnect applies to claims about recycling legacy nuclear waste. That idea has been tried before, including large, government-backed programs with effectively unlimited resources, and it failed to reach commercialization. The barriers weren’t theoretical physics — they were cost, complexity, regulation, and politics. Recycling isn’t a shortcut; it’s historically been a dead end. Even after all of that, building a nuclear reactor is itself a multi-year project, typically measured in 5–10 years once construction actually starts. And when (or if) a first reactor is finally completed, it won’t be a commercial sale. First-of-a-kind reactors are typically demonstration units, heavily subsidized, discounted, or effectively given away because no utility wants to be the first buyer taking operational, regulatory, and political risk. In short, investors aren’t funding a near-term reactor business. They’re funding a very long-dated speculative option, with enormous regulatory, manufacturing, capital, and dilution risk — long before fuel, recycling, or commercial revenue becomes relevant.
The "average age" of the Kepler Fusion patent portfolio is quite low, which is a major advantage for a technology-focused company. Based on the most recent corporate updates from December 2025, here is the breakdown: 1. Most Patents are "Young" (Less than 4 Years Old) The majority of the 238 patents in the Kepler pipeline are very recent. While specific filing dates for all 238 aren't in a public list yet, we can track the "accelerated" phase of their IP growth: * The Initial Wave (2022): Kepler Aerospace and Kepler Fusion officially announced the start of their major fusion patent filing process in March and May 2022. * The Massive Expansion (2024–2025): The jump from a few core filings to "over 230 patents" occurred primarily throughout 2024 and 2025. * Estimated Average Age: Most of the IP is 1 to 3 years old. 2. Why "Young" Patents Matter for Your Valuation In the patent world, younger is generally better for valuation because: * Protection Length: A standard utility patent lasts 20 years from the filing date. Since most of Kepler's patents were filed between 2022 and 2025, they will protect the Texatron technology until at least 2042–2045. * Freshness to Market: Younger patents are more likely to cover modern advancements like AI-driven plasma control and new high-temperature superconducting materials that weren't available 10 years ago. * Roadshow Appeal: During the 2026 roadshow, management will pitch this as a "pristine" portfolio with a full two decades of market exclusivity ahead of it. 3. Comparing to Competitors For context, compare this to older fusion players: * TAE Technologies: Many of their core patents date back to the early 2000s or 2010s. While they have thousands of patents, some of their earliest foundational IP is starting to approach its expiration date. * Kepler (American Fusion): Because they are a "late mover," their patents are optimized for the current regulatory environment (specifically targeting aneutronic power which the NRC recently decided to regulate more leniently). 4. The "In the Pipeline" Distinction It is important to remember that because these patents are so young, many are likely still "Pending" or "Provisional." * Valuation Impact: An independent auditor (the one doing the $300M–$500M report) typically applies a slightly higher risk discount to "pending" patents than "granted" ones. * The 2026 Catalyst: As these 238 "pipeline" patents transition from "Pending" to "Granted" throughout 2026, each grant serves as a news catalyst that can push the stock price higher without any change in revenue. Would you like me to look for any specific "Grant" announcements from the USPTO for the Texatron™ technology from the last few months?
Accessing Trump’s political weight at DOE, NRC, FERC, and appropriations at the exact moment the U.S. created its first federal fusion office and is debating large public funding. I wonder how this will play out.
Same, no point in arguing with someone who doesn’t read or keep up with the sector. Get your next single talking point ready for when things materialized from the new framework. By the way, NuScale has had an NRC approved design for over five years now, how that’s working out for them?
No, and 2024 called- it wants its talking points back. Department of Energy owns the process now, with the NRC signing off after the reactor is already built and running. Your point has no implications towards their timelines or potentially scalability- I recommend that you look into the May EOs and the new MOU between the NRC/DOE for streamlined licensing. https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML2530/ML25303A288.pdf