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With inflation running, interest rates hike, covid lockdowns, a war & possible recession where would you invest?
Simple bear case for gold and gold miners. RGLD play shown.
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I got hosed on the Feb 20 expiration of RGLD calls and am the process of being hosed on March 20. Traded calls and, occasionally, very short dated puts on them all summer and fall at a tidy profit. Feeling a little sour about the sector. Have taken this on the chin. But I don’t disagree with your thesis, all that being said.
I have recently decided to keep 3% of my portfolio in gold, using a gold ETF and a gold/silver streaming/royalty company (RGLD). I think of it as insurance against the crazy.
I’ve been sitting in FNV, WPM, & RGLD for a bit and have no intention of selling anytime soon.
I’m cooked on this sector for now. $6500 down the tubes on RGLD.
I like RGLD but it could have something to do with like the 90% gain it’s had in the past year. Profits will be taken eventually and it’s usually around earnings.
idk about RGLD. but i’m still holding barrick delta for gold price from q4 to now is 900. that’s a huge sail for miners
I’ve been trading options on RGLD for about 6 months. A bit different from barrick jn that they’re royalty/streaming company with exposures to gold, copper, silver. But the two correlate. I’m deep in options for Feb 20, with earnings set for Feb 18. I’m underwater on half the trades due to the pullback last week. I am consistently seeing 4100-ish open interest in the 230 puts chart for Feb 20 and it has me spooked. Thoughts?
Why did you choose $B vs the others ($GDXU, $RGLD)? Takes some balls to initially throw in $185K with uncertainty strike price goal might not be met.
$RGLD - Royal Gold. Cheapest gold royalty name of the big three and immune from cost inflation given most royalties are revenue based (NSR). All subject to support from gold performance
I respect the trade but Royal Gold (RGLD) is my golden stallion of choice here.
Can someone legit tell me why $FNV and $RGLD have lagged so much compared to gold? Their business model is so clean, their revenue is almost purely dependent on the price of gold (almost zero margin, very low fixed cost per ounce). They seem greatly undervalued if you assume that gold will stay above $3000-4000 per oz, which I think is highly likely in the medium term.
If you buy gold R&S companies right now (FNV, RGLD, WPM) it's like buying gold at a 40% discount. Good medium term move if you want to buy the gold dip. Position: 10% of my risk capital in leaps on FNV and RGLD, will be averaging down.
Bless my GOOG and GAP calls that are bailing out my poor decisions with FNV and RGLD
RGLD bout to pump to $2100
It might be best in the short term. Real interest rates seem destined to go down, which tends to be a good environment for gold. In the long term, gold has returned about 10% per year, compounded, or about the same as stocks. Gold prices may not be well correlated with stock prices, so it may provide good portfolio diversification. On the minus side, gold doesn't pay you anything to hold it. My gold holding is in the gold streamer, Royal Gold ($RGLD).
I invest in copper through Rio Tinto ($RIO) and Royal Gold ($RGLD) which has streaming and royalties in gold, silver, and copper.
Why did RGLD just plummet to $170?
I’m up on AEM and RGLD the past few weeks.. many of the Gold miners could moon as central bank buying backstops the price and inflation/potus idiocy kick into even higher gear.. I have a bunch of miners, a few dogs (especially in silver right now which is odd) and few superstars. It’s a tough market, but agree, the opportunity is definitely there right now. I think we could see $5k per oz over next two years.
The one I'm least likely to have to sell is probably HCA or RGLD. I'd only really sell them if they got grossly overvalued, or there was a huge shift in their industries that would cause significant harm to their operations. There's also the risk that management starts screwing up really bad, so maybe then too. Another one I probably wouldn't sell unless the company really started screwing up or got priced way too high(30PE + my tax burden so like 35 PE) is RTX. US military industrials will never fall out of fashion at this rate.
It's a very valid point. Also, some of the best feedback I've gotten on reddit, for what its worth. I'm actually reading up on RGLD as I write this, and....very impressive.
> It's an interesting point. For what it's worth, I don't think of FNV as a deal, per say. Just a really solid longer-term company that's got a few potential catalysts. I guess my stance is based on the question, "*Why buy a gold stock over holding physical gold?*" The metal has no counterparty risk and no exogenous threats can depreciate its value. You'll never have a Victoria Gold situation where your investment is wiped out by one bad day or a legal decision in its jurisdiction. Since gold as an asset fluctuates so violently throughout the decades, the companies are not stable long-term investments. The big ones have regularly lost 70%-90% of their stock value at the nadir of cycles and stayed there for years. There are two main justifications: * Arbitrage between the current price and its current worth/future potential. According to whatever personal thesis you have regarding gold's future price, the disparity should widen appropriately. At heart it's value investing. * The passive leverage inherent in a gold company's operations. For the right companies, a 20% rise in gold's value can result in 3x profit margins and 4x FCF. With that philosophy, you're treating it as a growth company. With the exception of Agnico Eagle and Northern Star, the big companies don't fit the GARP profile and they're way too expensive to be value plays. > However, most of those have run by the looks of their charts. Still not badly priced though.... RGLD is around 16x P/E with a projected 50% EPS increase next year. With its main projects coming online, SAND's EPS will triple in 2025 and compress the multiple down to 8-9x. I think they have a lot of room to run, and they're not even the best in their field.
RGLD too! Man I've milked that cash cow a few times
What stock ticker.. WRLG or RGLD? Confused
NEM and RGLD showing strength. GDX hot
I bought some RGLD since its the only US based gold miner (no foreign tax shite).
RGLD looking really interesting. Breakout on the 1y
RGLD another one to peek at if you want to trade gold
Keeping on topic I offer you Royal Gold - RGLD. A gold royalty streaming company. I own none as yet, but love the company
Royal Gold - RGLD ticker A gold streaming company with little to no exposure to upside inflation. When/if Gold takes off, this company moves up quickly
It's unfortunate but miners only outperform gold for relatively small periods of time during bull markets for gold. In general, the gold producers (the companies tasked with getting the gold out of the ground) are worse investments for a buy and hold strategy long term. However, the royalty companies like Franco Nevada (FNV), Royal Gold (RGLD) and Wheaton Prescious Metals (WPM) have outperformed the other miners and even gold. However, I personally am betting on gold and silver explorers, developers and producers to outperform the royalty companies in this next bull run. My favorite gold miner is Agnico Eagle (AEM). My favorite silver miners are Silvercrest (SILV) and MAG Silver (MAG). It's really important in my opinion to diversify across the space. BTG is a great miner that I own and it pays a nice dividend but I also own about 50 other mining companies. Many are very small junior miners with tremendous risk and reward. I could lose it all or score big but I don't care either way. I don't have enough to make life changing money. Finally, and I'm sorry I know I'm long winded but I know a lot about this space, you MUST own some gold and silver coins or bars in your possession. Gold and silver is true money and it is no liability. With your miners you rely on your brokerage and bank to get paid. Something could happen to your brokerage or bank and then it might be hard or impossible to get paid. Well with silver and gold (and cash) in your possession you don't need to worry about getting your money out. Your money is already out.
GFI and RGLD are the ones I have been in. so far they have been flat for like 6 months. SBSW for platinum is another contrarian one I like
Buy the royalty companies, FNV,OR,RGLD
FSM, KGC, RGLD, OR. These are my top picks
An overlooked way to get gold exposure is through gold streaming/royalty companies - RGLD, FNV, WPM for example. Those give leverage on the gold price without the various crappy features of investing in mining companies (high capital intensity, environmental issues, etc.)
For gold miners, always look for the AISC. I like $AEM and $KL. Also look at the royalty route like $RGLD
I've been investing in gold and gold mining companies on and off since around 2002. By far my favorite is RGLD, a gold royalty company. Great buy and hold stock in my opinion (not financial advice).
Make sure you research the regular reports from the miners themselves. What are their All-In Sustainable Costs (AISC) per ounce?n That is a good metric to indicate management effectiveness. Also, check out their debt load, and their Altman-Z (must be greater than 1.8). Why? They are businesses, and one should never forget that. Having said that, I do like $KL, $AEM, and $RGLD. FYI, Mark Bristow, who was the former CEO of Randgold Resources, and did a wonderful job there is now running Barrick Gold ($GOLD), so I expect him to streamline their operations to be run more effectively.
**Ticker RGLD** Spam: False Last Seen Market Cap: 7248862000 Is SPAC: None
To play gold: RGLD (royalties) or GGN (high yielding gold/natural resources CEF; option writing strategy). Look at debt to GDP (Warren Buffet's ratio for evaluation). We're now over 100% (and spending $1.9T plus seeking another $2T - both within first 90 days in office!). Look at countries that are higher and ask yourself if you'd like to be them (ok, maybe Singapore). We're either looking at massive inflation, massive deflation (I can't reason why), or some sort of civil war (or 2 of the 3). Not sure when, but I'd expect gold will not move sideways or down for too much longer. This is different than 2007 was.