RND
First Trust Bloomberg R&D Leaders ETF
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If you don’t want to make money. Scroll on. Defence holdings ($ALRT)
My Value Play - With Sharp financials improvement. Next $OPEN?
Next Carvana? THIS one has Quarterly Rev Growth 336 perc (GEM in Plain Sight) Ready to Run
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Good video to watch, I’m long on DRTS and HGRAF, Dr Yancey said contracts are 3-5 years out but RND grants can come sooner and look good on the bottom. Brilliant man, fun interview.
CQQQ will be the QQQ of the future just watch, while we burn all the capex on RND and development they will wait and steal the IP and mass produce it
Why do I feel like china is going to magically obtain all of our AI intellectual property and mass produce it cheap while we hold the RND bag
China is going to destroy the memory and AI run, they have all the production capacity. We do all the expensive RND and capex they steal it all and mass produce it
I have been saying this for a while, but the reason why the market treats it like a one hit wonder is because their revenues are just that. Basically all of Moderna's revenues still come from Covid vaccines and thus will continue to decline. Combine this with the current annual cash burn of 3.5 billion a years with their their cash reserves of 4.5 billion, they have 1.5 years before they need to start raising more capital or aggressively cut costs. Naturally this has all been priced in, but of course if the situation worsens over the coming the stock will continue to decline. So it is a pretty tantalizing bet on if their RND pays off or bust.
Hasn't deepseek shown they can just let us waste money on RND and then they just copy it for pennies?
How does that come down to 6x more productivity with my math? That comes down to 2x. $10 makes lets say $20 vs $20 making $60. USA is roughly 4x more productive than China. The whole point of why there is a push in manufacturing is that there is a hope to offset high labor with higher productivity thru capital expenditures in automation. US doesn't just have high productivity and access to technology, it also has a ton of financial instruments to use such that you can support high capex for building infrastructure. Productivity growth is the name of the game for economies as demographics are becoming older and labor force is shrinking. The Chinese, with their manufacturing, arent really that productive as a society. Turning plastic into some basic shapes and selling it for pennies to rest of the world by simply throwing as many low wage under educated 12 year olds as you can doesn't really create long term growth. USA spending billions of dollars into RND on aircraft, chips, automobiles, or biotech is generally way more productive. China is definitely catching up, but they don't have the freedom to access capital as well as Americans do. They are also in a deflationary environment, which is good in the long run(it means their productivity is going up to the point where they are over producing), but it does make spending money TODAY much more difficult because they have hopes in spending less tomorrow. [https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-productivity-of-the-worlds-largest-30-economies-2005-2025/](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-productivity-of-the-worlds-largest-30-economies-2005-2025/) [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_countries\_by\_labour\_productivity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_labour_productivity)
I've been buying shares for weeks now and the good news just keep coming. I mean obviously it's ALL in the hands of FDA, so a huge risk there, but this is a stock I follow most closely at the moment. There will be earnings report in a couple days, probably bad (it's all RND now) so imo this week is a great moment to buy, even short term until EOY. My very conservative price target is $4, this can be reached on the rumor alone,if you have balls to keep it longer and if the company delivers, this can probably go to $8-12 no problem
>Tesla is now vastly behind the Chinese counterparts and horribly overpriced You mean China is subsidizing their domestic companies to undercut foreign companies as well as stealing IP from Western companies to save on rnd expenses so that they can flood the market? China is one of if not the largest state sponsor of hacking and IP theft, and all of their auto companies are based off this. If you don't have to pay for RND expenses and the government subsidizes you, it's amazing how cheap of vehicles you can make
Not really, did a dcf analysis, the value should be around 1000, not including any positive windwalls from the RND ventures of the company.
Thank you - nice to see real insight in this on r/options! There i totally agree with you. I don't hear people taking much about trading based on their view of the RND on this sub, but that's exactly what you're supposed to do. It is hard for a day trader to translate that to the underlying, but you can totally apply that to trading the options. That's what I personally look for myself, selling futures strangles in those cases.
Quant nerd here: there's only one risk neutral probability density (fundamental theorem of asset pricing) so it's not an issue that everyone has a different way to calculate just like it's not an issue that there are different ways of calculating 10 time 6, the answer is the same. You can translate the RND from SPX, but it's much better to just use /ES options since the RFR is already baked into those options so there's no parameter to fudge there. And just because you can calculate the RND doesn't mean it's useful as a P-measure that a trader would care about. I, personally, like the CVOL which essentially parametrized the RND. CME publishes historical data of CVOL too. https://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/cme-group-benchmark-administration/cme-group-volatility-indexes.html
Lay offs will slow down now that the tax bill passed corpos can deduct RND the way it was for decades
If EU was even CAPABLE of producing military equipment, they wouldn't be buying ours. We have centuries of RND they could never. If i ever need a good bayonet or chain mail cod piece, can't beat EU craftsmanship. But if I want to kill a man TODAY, gunna need to pay the fat American piper.
Here’s a translation of the following German article discussing the conservative parties that did well in today’s election. —————————— Union’s Plans in Case of Election Victory: Judges Warn Against Repealing Cannabis Law February 19, 2025 | 15:24 If the conservative Union (CDU/CSU) takes control of the German government, it plans to immediately overturn the partial legalization of cannabis. However, the Judges’ Association strongly opposes such plans. If the cannabis law is repealed, cannabis clubs could claim compensation. Source: dpa The Union intends to reverse cannabis legalization. According to the New Judges’ Association (NRV), such a move could result in significant compensation claims. Simon Pschorr, a prosecutor and spokesperson for the Criminal Law division, told the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND): “If the cultivation and consumption of cannabis were to be completely banned again, it would be equivalent to expropriating the cannabis clubs.” — Simon Pschorr, Prosecutor “This could entitle the clubs to claim compensation from the state.” Given the high investments required for cannabis cultivation and the fact that licenses were legally issued for seven years, Pschorr expects compensation amounts to be “considerable.” Union: Cannabis Law Endangers Youth The Union has stated that it would immediately reverse the cannabis law if it takes office. The CDU/CSU election manifesto argues: “This law protects dealers and exposes our children and young people to drug use and addiction.” Prosecutor Calls for Transition Periods Since April 2024, cannabis consumption has been legal for adults in Germany, albeit with restrictions. Individuals are allowed to grow up to three plants at home and store up to 50 grams of cannabis. Additionally, licensed non-commercial “cannabis clubs” are permitted to grow cannabis collectively. With regard to the Union’s plans, Pschorr stressed the need for sufficient transition periods if the law were to be overturned. “Cannabis social clubs and private individuals who have grown cannabis at home must be given the opportunity to legally dispose of their plants and harvests. This cannot be demanded overnight.” Additionally, he noted that recriminalization cannot be applied retroactively. Expert: Cannabis Law Reduces Burden on Judiciary Pschorr reported positive experiences with the law: “Despite the challenges associated with the amnesty, which should not be downplayed, the relief for the judiciary is significant.” Reversing legalization would mean that the justice system would once again have to prosecute small-scale consumers, rather than focusing on organized crime. The NRV (New Judges’ Association) is an organization of judges and prosecutors.
Millions of dollars spent in war rooms. I have the answer China stole ChatGPT‘s research and development and since they did not have to put that much time into RND they were able to make it faster and cheaper. Simple
The company that literally every other company on the planet has to do business with is the one you decided to short? The company that specifically has new RND and technological breakthroughs every 6 months to a year that every other company that needs to be on the bleeding edge of tech literally has to purchase or become obsolete by their competitors is the one you shorted? You may as well just cash out, buy a boat and sink it yourself. The wreckage will have more value than your position in a year or two.
>Long term Joby could be king but for short term Archer is way better. Joby makes almost everything from motors to chassis but it also takes a lot of investment and RND. Archer on the other hand can produce the same at a faster rate but as most of the stuff isn’t in-house maybe things go grrrr in the long run Strong disagree. Why? Because the lion's share of R&D has already been met quite some time ago. Remember that Joby had a 10y head start here...long before Archer's mission statement was quickly scrawled on some cocktail napkin by Goldstein in 2018. Also, Toyota is the keystone of Joby's supply chain and that partnership has full control of said supply chain and quality control. If there's a delay in that space, Stellantis's will likely be much longer. Lastly, you can't fully assemble an aircraft until the fuselage is completed. That will likely be the greatest (post-FAA approval) production hurdle here.
Long term Joby could be king but for short term Archer is way better. Joby makes almost everything from motors to chassis but it also takes a lot of investment and RND. Archer on the other hand can produce the same at a faster rate but as most of the stuff isn’t in-house maybe things go grrrr in the long run
Just google Breeden Litzenberger, there is ample work on that subject. You can use an approach as explained on https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/73891/54838 to get the vol surface which will be the starting point. https://quant.stackexchange.com/a/29532/54838 shows python code for the implied probability distribution. It's not particularly useful (not related to the real world probabilities) but you can get some interesting observations. For example, if the underlying goes down, the lower quantiles tend to go down more, and the Upper quantiles move less. In other words, the RND tends to stretch out to the left.
Ford's first fully Electric car was back in 2012 got 78 miles to the charge, their second full electric wasn't till 2019. Within that same exact time frame Tesla launched the model s, model x, model 3 and the model Y. Ford is basically still in the RND phase if you ask me.
You can be right that it’s a shit product and without stock buybacks the stock would be down. AAPL can’t maintain this course for too long without it biting them. If they continue to fail to innovate the phone, they’ll be using all that repurchased stock as offerings to fund RND in a panic. But this is incredibly unlikely. They’ll come up with something new.
[RND mainly](https://www.matthewball.co/all/roblox2024), but because of their model they need to payout developers etc. for content. What's really sus though is that if the DAU manipulation is true: > So to achieve overall profitability, Roblox needs to either increase its average bookings per DAU from $13 to at least $18 or achieve a level of revenue scale such that all fees other than developer payouts (currently $3.38 per $13) are effectively halved. In practice, both pushes will likely be needed; fortunately, there are a few mechanisms for each. "path to profitibility" might be rather difficult