CME

devCheckingIn

We still have CME gaps? I thought futures was trading 24/7 this year.

Glittering_Pick_9738

Pump and dump. Pumped to 85k to use the rest of the Sunday to slide below 84k to avoid CME gap.

AutomaticOne7

CME just announced its plans to launch regulated BCH futures, send it to $1000

AutoModerator

Post is by: Bcom_Mod and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/bitcoin_com/comments/1wn1lgy/the_fed_hiked_rates_and_bitcoin_ran_from_75k_to/ The Fed raised rates. Not held, not cut. Raised, for the first time in years, into a slowing economy. Textbook says risk assets bleed when that happens because safe Treasury yields get more attractive and money leaves anything volatile that pays nothing. [Bitcoin went from the mid-$75,000s to over $84,000. $260 million in shorts got liquidated. Analysts are now calling the bear market over](https://news.bitcoin.com/market-updates/bitcoin-price-crosses-84000-as-analysts-declare-bear-market-over/). The single most-repeated bearish setup of the year fired, and the market did the opposite of what the textbook promised. The hike was fully priced before it happened. CME had a 90% chance of higher rates baked in for weeks. By the time the Fed actually moved, every seller who was going to sell the hike had already sold. The event arrived and there was nothing left to unwind, so the shorts stacked on top of the "obvious" bearish trade became fuel instead. That's the $260M liquidation. ETF inflows ran strong through the entire rate scare, IBIT alone pulling billions while everyone argued about basis points. Raoul Pal's framing is the one that fits the tape: rates breaking higher signals fiscal dominance, governments so deep in debt they can't control long-term yields, and that environment is the whole reason a fixed-supply asset exists. The other read is simpler and worth respecting: this is a leveraged short squeeze on thin conviction, not real spot demand, and it fades the moment the liquidation fuel runs out. The Coinbase Premium going negative even as BTC tapped $84K says US spot buyers aren't the ones driving this, which is exactly what you'd expect from a squeeze rather than a durable bid. Both can't hold for long. Either the hike proved crypto has decoupled from Fed policy and $84K is the start of the next leg, or it's a squeeze that unwinds and drags back toward $80K once the shorts are cleared. The negative Coinbase Premium is the tell I'd watch. If US spot demand doesn't show up to confirm this move, the squeeze crowd is right. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

fan_of_hakiksexydays

Thanks for replying and addressing this. But aren't all the perpetual futures on Kraken only Bitnomial products? It's not like people who are using perps can jump to different types of perps on the platform, there's only one product. The other old fashioned CME futures contract from are not quiet the same thing. Is there already any word about Perps coming back any time soon?

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Post is by: T_sauce9112 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1wkqzuq/ive_been_trying_to_break_my_btc_thesis_since/ Since apparently using AI for research means you just typed “is BTC going down?” into ChatGPT and copied the answer This comes as result of being mocked and ridiculed and taken down for my methods, so here is the complete break down. This analysis didn't start yesterday. I've been building it since August. At this point I've probably used around 250 prompts researching it, questioning it, changing it and trying to break it. It originally started with me questioning whether the bottom was actually in and whether everyone calling for straight up was getting ahead of themselves. From there it turned into looking at the 4 year cycle, previous BTC corrections, left/right translated cycles, Elliott structure, RSI divergences across multiple timeframes, moving averages, Bollinger bands, volume, support/resistance and what previous BTC bottoms actually looked like. Then I started tying macro into it. Fed policy, rate expectations, 2Y/10Y yields, inflation, jobs, oil, diesel/crack spreads, Japan/BOJ and the carry trade, VIX, credit spreads and what normally starts breaking BEFORE risk assets really get hit. Then ETFs and positioning. ETF inflows/outflows, OI, funding, longs vs shorts, liquidation levels, CME gaps, Coinbase premium, spot vs perp activity, CVD, whale activity and on-chain buying/selling. I wasn't just asking AI to prove me right either. A huge amount of the prompts were basically me saying attack this, find out why I'm wrong, find the bullish argument, look for something we're missing, compare it to previous cycles, check another market, check another timeframe, rerun the numbers. That's how the thesis kept evolving. And that's exactly why I started questioning this latest giant green candle. BTC broke down to around 74.8k and instead of continuing lower it completely reversed and eventually ripped from around 77k to 81k+. So instead of saying “well I'm bearish so the pump must be fake,” we dug into what actually happened. Around $178M in BTC shorts got liquidated compared to only around $8M in longs. One of the biggest hours had roughly $171M in liquidations with around 95% being shorts. Futures OI jumped from around $51.2B to $56.4B in a day. Large Binance perp trades showed around $5.71B aggressive buying vs $5.15B selling. Coinbase premium was negative around -9.5bps while offshore derivatives were heavily involved. And BTC basically ran through liquidation levels from 78k, 79k, 80k and into 81k before stopping right under the same 82k area we've been watching. Then volume dried up. That doesn't prove manipulation. I can't tell you who pressed the first buy button or what their intentions were. But it definitely gives me a reason to question everyone looking at one giant green candle and automatically calling it organic bullish demand. That's how I've been using AI. Not “tell me what to think.” More like having a research assistant that I can ask 200 follow up questions, make it check another market, AT LIGHTNING SPEED, attack my argument, compare historical data, look underneath price action and then change the thesis when something doesn't make sense. If you disagree with the analysis that's perfectly fine. Give me the data and I'll look at it. But “you used AI” isn't a counterargument. TLDR: What's actually on the table now? 82-85k is still the major resistance area I've been watching. If BTC rejects up here and loses 80k, then 78k/77k, I'm watching 75k again. But another wick to 74-75k isn't enough anymore. We've already seen BTC do that and rip all the way back. For the real bearish confirmation I want to see BTC break 74-75k, fail to reclaim it and actually ACCEPT below it. Then I'm looking at 72k-70k, and if 70k fails the deeper target is still 65-68k. The other side is simple too. If BTC breaks through 82-85k, holds it, retests it and buyers actually defend it as support, then my bearish thesis is in trouble. Sustained acceptance above 85k and I have to admit the setup I was looking for didn't happen. Until one of those things happens I think BTC is basically fighting inside a giant 75k to 82-85k range. I'm not pretending I know which side wins. I'm using every tool available to me to figure it out before everyone else does. Thats what the institutions do... *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Brawmethius

For a bitcoin sub I am amazed no one follows the explosion of perpetual futures and derivatives in BTC now. CME and Binance regularly the leading moves now and ETFs forced to follow. Derivative to spot volume is regularly 10-20x; currently at about 13x. Almost all the big random moves are now kicked off from binance in the perp markets. Dealer gamma just flipped massively.

Objective_Basil_8414

Worth adding the part that goes beyond the venue: these are fraud and breach-of-duty charges, not "crypto" charges. The illegal act was misusing employer information, and the same case exists if they had traded CME futures instead. What being on-chain changes is the evidentiary cost, which is why this gets charged in months instead of years. The uncomfortable follow-on for everyone reading: address clustering plus a single KYC leak retroactively deanonymizes years of history, and most of us are one exchange withdrawal away from that.