SEA
U.S. Global Sea to Sky Cargo ETF
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ALL IN ON ZIM !!! TOOK OUT AN 11k CREDIT LINE TO BET ON CONTINUED CONFLICT IN THE RED SEA. YOLO
Over sold stocks when loss harvesting - now have a short position. Will wash sales trigger if I close this short?
For Anyone Who is Long/Generally Interested in Sea Ltd. (SE)
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Daily U.S. Stock Market News Ticker (Tuesday, March 7)
🎉Guide To Claim 1,000 Free SEA Token Airdrop 🌊 (Current value $590)
🎉Guide To Claim 1,000 Free SEA Token Airdrop 🌊 (Current value $590)
Morning Highlights (as of Nov 16, 2022)
Shopify makes first SEA startup investment in WhatsApp CRM firm’s $23m round
The biotech rocket getting ready for launch - $CRSP Crispr Therapeutics DD
On this day June 6, 88 years ago the SEC was created
Ark Invest buys more Coinbase after earning drop
If you down on Sea limited $SE , you might wanna see this before you cut your loss.
If you think of cutting your losses on Sea limited $SE , i hope this helps you.
How could any other region outperform US stocks in the next 10 years?
The Complete List of Russian Companies Listed on London Stock Exchange
The Complete List of Russian Companies Listed on London Stock Exchange
Mentions
No I live in SEA. Assumed you were talking about the market people care about my b
So just to correct - the down tick from Sept to October in users and AUM was them closing down accounts with less than a certain amount invested and no activity for a while. Forget the exact numbers right now but that's what it was. It'll keep growing in December 99% because they're growing UK, EU, and SEA pretty quickly since they started offering US tokenized stocks there in Oct. Their prediction market is going to grow in December and then peaked most likely in Jan with a slight decline in Feb (Superbowl). There won't be a decline for long due to March madness in March and April and then we go right into NBA playoffs and then right after that we have the FIFA world cup in American soil. The only down month I see this year is July/August tbh, but by then they'll have their own miax exchange for it so while contracts traded will be down their profit per contract will be up. They're also expanding their credit card (it's up to 600k I think by the end of Jan) and they're opening up banking for gold members which I know I'll be moving to personally. Finally (for my bull case here), they believe they're going to win being the trustees for the trump accounts and if that does come to fruition that's going to be insane growth. I wouldn't bet on the stock just because of this but I expect there's a decently large chance of winning it and if they do win that'll be a huge boost. I'm buying personally - I expect an EPS of 3.2 for 2026 and of they can sustain the growth they've got (which I believe they can) then that'll warrant at the very least a 35 PE ratio in my eyes which brings it above 100. Until growth stagnates they're still considered a growth stock in my eyes and they've got a lot of runway left.
If you have around 250k and you are certain you can pull 10% out of stocks every year, you can retire in SEA already. Life is cheap there.
I could literally buy a middle-class house in SEA with the losses u have. crazy.
I like your picks. Do you have geographical proximity to SEA / China or are you looking at China from across the ocean? It's a very interesting market for me personally.
Its 7pm already here in SEA 😒 so must be like 8pm in china
No, easier way is to move to SEA and sell your services as a mercenary. Then actually you no losses if you think about it.
Not just Europe too, SEA countries are moving away because of all these tariffs
Pretty much people don't realize that even if factories move back to America, they'll probably be largely automated. The thing is a worker in SEA is cheaper than the upfront cost and maintenance on a robot. Can't say the same about an American.
Tourists will always be a huge part of the SEA market place
Had to take that NE & SEA parlay
SEA consists of multiple countries with different cost of living. You can't generalize like that.
you want more like 3-5k/month long term for nice life for retirement in SEA. (i'm wageslaving through my wfh job from there)
dominant in SEA but unless the narrative shifts (they;ve figured out how to acquire customers without incinerating money), it's going to be bouncing around for the foreseeable future. Also they still face stiff competition from Gojek down south and Didi up north. Matter of time before Didi comes to SEA.
Nobody uses facebook anymore, except maybe in SEA and nobody cares about FB messenger. What's app was bought because of the 2-3 bln users. Profiling these users and connecting their and connecting them with their FB and insta advertising IDs has immense value in targeted ads. Also, they make plenty money besides that. > Revenue has surged from about $443 million in 2018 to over $1.3 billion in 2023, fueled by WhatsApp Business, click-to-message ads, and WhatsApp Pay.
The OP specifically mentioned China which is why I commented on it. The investable world, as I see it, is four distinct regions. 1. US 2. Developed ex-US (Canada, Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia) 3. China 4. Emerging Markets ex-China (LATAM, SEA/Taiwan, MENA, South Africa, India) But generally speaking if we’re talking about stability, emerging markets aren’t going to be in the same class as developed markets. That’s why I mentioned Canada/Europe/Japan and then had a little piece on China separately since OP mentioned it.
Have you been able to use both? I was able to see many of the chinese EV while overseas in SEA xpeng, byd etc. They were impressive. The interface didnt look as polished but i didn't have a chance to drive and use FSD on any of them.
Sure but Meta has been trying to monetize it for over 10 years and haven't found a good way. They've even toyed with subscriptions and enterprise level subscriptions but can't figure it out. Until then, it literally only accounts for like 2% of revenue. You are right about the international thing. Facebook is actually still dominant in SEA, India and South America. It's almost at WeChat levels in these markets and a primary driver of DAU growth. Meta has the eyes and the users. It just needs to figure out how to monetize it. Sandberg made the pivot to ads which took Facebook from a startup to a top 5 company. Now Meta needs to figure out the next step to maintain their global dominance. Metaverse was actually a good gamble. If it succeeded it would have secured their future as THE platform and they would have looked like geniuses. They have the coffers to make these high risk/high reward plays.
This. I'm an expat living in SEA. America looks like pre-war Nazi Germany right now. You think that's hyperbole. The optics coming out of the US are fucking horrendous.
The benefits from AI dwarf every other technology in terms of benefiting society. The only thing I can think of being in the same ballpark is probably the wheel. We will get there. I am American but only live in the US half time. The US will have the tough time getting to things being distributed more equally but they will get there. The US will have a harder time because Americans my age were drilled for most of our lives that socialism is evil. But there is zero doubt in my mind that we will have to move to something closer to socialism for all of it to work. It will be pretty incredible once we get through the period of time it takes to adapt to our new world. It will be a far better place for the planet, happiness, and things like food and power will be plentiful. I am excited to see it. But I did well prepare for the period of time it takes to get there. The other half I live in SEA and most Thailand it will be far easier in this part of the world to adapt.
It will literally unite all of Europe against the US You already have half of Latin America against you as well as China. SEA pretty much the same. Right now everyone plays nice because they have to. Plus all the EU has to do is stop trading in dollars to collapse the economy I don’t think Americans will be happy when their money is worth nothing overnight. Then add the chaos that is already going on… It better not get to that point because it will be the end of everyone
While the users growth & DAUs in US/EU might be slowing, you are completely ignoring the fact that it has about 3+ billion DAUs. Dont forget that they still own instagram & whatsapp. In SEA particularly, meta basically had us by the balls, every tom, dick and harry is on at least 1 of meta products or even extremely common to be on multiple of meta products. It is like the infrastructure for everything here. Political regimes, businesses traffic, media & influencers narrative in SEA is literally gained & lost on meta products. I am definitely buying at this level. Besides, whatsapp hasnt even fully monetise yet, if you take a look at wechat you would understand how much growth engine whatsapp will be in the future. Cant vouch for llm & VR products though as it has never been my interest
China has made an incredible amount of investment in central and south America over the past two decades (as well as SEA, Africa, etc). Wouldn’t be surprised if they funded something here that we will only learn about years down the line.
Cool, that has nothing to do with what's going on in SEA currently though!
Suggesting he goes to Pakistan is pretty funny. He could go to SEA though and live like a king. In more ways than one.
It's perfectly understandable, not sure what you're talking about. Wrong, but common with ME / SA / SEA
As a local, the only 2 SG headquartered companies listed in NY that anyone should consider are SEA Ltd and Grab the rest are just dubious and P&D
They aint in India?! They are in SEA region!
Kraken is Leader in underwater also involved in Military and got Lot Orders from Nato and so on. Rocketlab will still grow a Lot and other space Stocks also. SEA ADR is amazon in south east asia with many Young fellows. Meta will still have great Future and Same Alphabet. Xctract i mentioned before. Axon Enterprise IS doing Always great Just lower know BCS of tariffs of Trump Administration
Kraken Robotics, Rocket Lab, Axon Enterprise Xtract One Technologies, SEA ADR, Alphabet
Futu is a better buy at this point. Basically everyone i know from SEA uses moomoo
If Chinese cars ever come to the US you can say goodbye to the big 3. Overseas they are everywhere in SA and SEA.
Once you get up to mid-range, shockingly little is made in China. Mostly Taiwan & SEA. Some really high end stuff in Europe & Japan, like you said. The point is that I'm paying like $45 in tariffs & currency exchange that I would not have had to pay if not for mangoretard's bullshit. Adds a lot of insult to injury when the part is only worth $50 to begin with & I am already paying more than the part's value in shipping. And there is a decent chance that the part is out of stock in the US because of tariffs...
What do you want someone to suggest? An overweight European index? An overweight SEA index? You can easily do that yourself. As has been pointed out to you that’s not truly an “all world index.”
I'm going to keep mentioning Sea Limited. Anything can happen in a one year timeframe, but I believe SE could triple in 2026. Emerging markets ex-China could be a popular investment theme, and I think that'll mostly be LATAM and SEA since that's where the interesting EM companies are (again, ex-China). I expect EPS to come in around $5 which would require a trailing P/E of 75x to support a $375 share price. That sounds lofty, but I expect 2027 EPS expectations to be in the $8.50-$9 range so a forward multiple of \~40-44x isn't too crazy for a company growing EPS at the pace Sea is. If sentiment shifts and EM growth stocks come into favor, it could happen. I give it a \~15-20% chance.
These are all just narratives that you've created that likely don't match reality for the 700 million people in the region. If this is all true, why are sales growing so quickly and why are margins improving so drastically? Also, you didn't even provide a rebuttal to the fact that Shoppee is actually *more* dominant in SEA than Amazon is in the US.
Basically correct. Add the industrialization of China and SEA to that mix and you’ve got way more people making some money that dramatically dilutes Americans global share. Hell by the 1980s Japan had shot all the way back to the #2 economy by GDP and that’s after we nuked em a couple times 40 years prior
OK, I'll clarify. I have covered the retail industry throughout Southeast Asia, including Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia, for a decade. I am regularly surveying buyers and sellers on Shopee (and other platforms) in these countries every year. The thing that stands out to me is that nobody actually **loves** Shopee. Sellers use it only grudgingly because the platform fees eat heavily into their margins. They do it anyway because it is the biggest player in town. Buyers use it for the coupons and because they can find products cheaper on Shopee than they can in bricks-and-mortar retail. But the user experience for buyers is crappy. Buyers spend lots of time filtering out scam listings, unreliable sellers, and then have to deal with shitty logistics providers (ShopeeExpress). You don't necessarily know what you are going to get, you're not sure if it'll arrive in good condition (if at all), and if it goes wrong, you're not sure if you're going to get your money back. All these issues mean that customers de-risk their purchases by buying cheap products that they can afford to lose, which doesn't help SEA's revenues. Then, if customers find a seller that they trust, they negotiate with the seller directly for discounts, which the seller grants to avoid paying platform fees. Of course, this is a problem common to all platforms, but Southeast Asian consumers are more price-conscious, so will tend to be more fickle.
You just cited a bunch of comments. But I also saw an article that compared SEA vs GRAB or BABA where there pe is much higher than their competitors. I have a bunch of stocks from them and am down since I bought a bunch during COVID. I think they have potential that’s why I’m holding but not sure if I agree with trillion dollar potential. They had to leave a bunch of big Latin American markets and Europe completely so im not sure if they have a solid expansion policy since they did it twice for Mexico and Argentina. They seem to have solid footing in Brazil though
Their conflict won't end because the scam centers are the reason why they started beefing in the first place. The previous Thai PM turned a blind eye and got caught fraternizing with the enemy leader on a phone call, which led to her ousting and someone from the opposite faction taking over. The current PM is a nationalist hawk who hates everyone in SEA, plus he got direct support from Thai Crown since they didn't like Cambodians operating in Thailand to kidnap people and hurting tourism.
There are a few survey reports going around that show fear and excitement about AI by country. China,SEA and LatAm are all more pro-AI than the US and Europe There are some method issues with this sort of work but still interesting
SEA here. I go to GUA quarterly for medical and dental, et al. Cheaper than flying into PSP these days.
just because your feed is dead doesn't mean Facebook is dead. ATH users and DAU. growth slowing but still growing like 2% YoY. Huge markets in Asia with sky high engagement (it's basically the browser for SEA). True regard take here. Calls on Meta.
I saw this one guy from SEA say he doesn’t invest in NA markets because there’s like a 0.9% fee, so he sticks to companies in SEA which grow slowly or not at all lol
Yeah I think the cleansers themselves are likely not graduates most of the time. The ones I see at work are likely SEA migrants, and here being a cleaner is a better life than back home.
Ubers are crazy cheap in California. Downtown SF to SFO costed me $25. The same exact distance from downtown Seattle to SEA runs $60-100.
same in SEA, cant studying with GPT as well, puts on cloudfare man
Would’ve taken .2$ to make it in SEA
BRUH US STRIKES ANOTHER ALLEGED DRUG BOAT IN CARIBBEAN SEA - CBS[](https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1989012523669159982)
I choose to bet against SEA by investing in a regional player Coupang.
SEA owns Shopee which does well in south east Asia but don’t compare it to Alibaba lol Shopee faces stuff competition from Amazon, Lazada etc the golden days of growth are far over. They did very well during Covid not anymore
Lazada has died off lol. Shopee is now the leading e-commerce for SEA, by a huge margin too.
HDHP may not be relevant, i forgot you are SEA not USA
I did answer but let me be clearer for you: >Do you agree that the U.S. should find a way to work together and focus on bettering the U.S. instead to stay ahead of the rest of the world? I think the US government should work to bettering American's lives. A lot can be hidden by the phrase "bettering the US to stay ahead of the world" - you need to be more specific about what this means if you want a direct answer. But I consider bettering the US to exclusively about bettering American's lives directly and immediately - and I do not think that is what is being worked on right now. >or Would you rather they keep fighting and destroy themselves from within? The politics of the last two decades has been focused on acts of destruction, I would rather that stopped, but at the same time I do not actually believe the conventional US political system is capable of acts of genuine creation. If the US wishes to maintain its course though, as it appears it does, I do not fear its own failure - Americans are strong and resourceful people and when we finally shirk the yoke of our 'betters' in power we will find we have so much more in common than in opposition. The destruction is only happening on a Governmental and Elite level. I really don't see it mattering to me as neither elements have really cared about me, our people, or our outcomes for decades. >The question I am asking you is would you rather see the U.S. thrive or fail? I want Americans to thrive. I'm skeptical of the US' need to project its power globally and don't really see how it helps us thrive so I'm not too concerned if US power is reworked globally. I was 100% for the gutting of USAID - I'm okay with being honest and calling our military the Department of War - I'm okay with NATO/Europe and SEA nations being our vassals if they want to be. >Would you rather see China fail? Or thrive? I'm really indifferent, but I don't really want people to suffer. I do think there is unnecessary Sinophobia and Russiophobia that benefits the military industrial complex, and seeks to normalize proxy wars fought by nationals of different nations like our 'allies' the Ukrainians dying and being maimed in scores of scores. Again, as much as I am for a nation's right to self defense or its right to let it be used as a Vassal state for us, I'd rather not see PEOPLE suffer.
I’m from SEA too and i can’t find any reasons to invest in our markets
Holding this for long, might be the NUAI in SEA market
Yup, very popular in the SEA region as well. No problems using them so far.
Living in SEA, locals here opt for cheaper car ride company. Grab charge 20-30% more even off peak.
this is like door dash but with much shittier margins because its SEA
why would they hire in effing singapore where the cost of living is as much as california? are you serious? pick another SEA country.
US PLANS 'SHOW OF FORCE’ AGAINST CHINA IN S. CHINA SEA AS TRUMP & XI MEET: CBS He just wants this to go badly
This reminds me of the late 90’s. Lived in SEA and the joke was if you could turn on a computer, you were hired for six figures. Put .com in your earnings report and press release, and you had $100 stock price. Ahhh, the days of Rocky Mountain Internet, HomeGrocer.com, Jeeves, and Bear Stearns pimping these IPO’s Calls it is boys. 🙃
From the region and i can say that its quite essential and the go to app if you need ride hailing, food delivery etc. However I do feel that it is more used by tourists or those that aren’t too familiar with the local infrastructure. So in that sense, I see a bet on Grab as a bet that tourism in SEA will continue to grow.
I honestly hate the grab app as a tourist here 🤙 it’s really glitchy & too big, too much of a catch-all IMO. But I do see grab drivers everywhere so there’s that. Having spent some time in SEA now, something makes me want to be bullish on 7-11 if they ever get a publicly traded stock for US citizens…
Are you investing in China? If you do, you'll know that their real estate only recover in tier1 city. Lower tier are still falling. People are saving money and not spending. The CCP still doing a stimulus to carry the economy. That 14.8% you mentioned is a direct export to US. Some business rerouted their export to SEA and Latam before re-export to US to avoid tariff. That's why trump raised a ridiculous tariff number on some random country. Still, I'm very bullish on Chinese big tech company. Just hope Xi learned his lesson or he'll get purged. Not by the US or Chinese citizen, but the CCP themselves.
I live in SEA and use their service extensively between multiple countries. They originally showed up more than a decade ago as GrabTaxi, offering transparency and fairness in the corrupt taxi industry. This involved into Grabcar and later the all-in-one app they offer today. The price of their service has steadily increased, and their food delivery prices are now the highest in the market. They take 20-25% from restaurants, in addition to delivery fees. In Thailand, drivers are regularly defrauding passengers by tacking on bogus fees, which alienates passengers. Across the region, there are a bunch of cheaper alternatives... Bolt, Indrive, Maxim, Gojek, etc. The concept of Grab is cool, but the market seems ready for another disruption. They are very much at odds with their loyal customers and these markets are always a race to the bottom with an endless supply of low cost labor. As Grab fails to take care of their drivers, delivery riders or customers, eventually someone will come in and evolve the industry.
Was thinking getting in when it was below 4 last year. I hesitated because it wasn't as exposed or the outlooks for many investors were mainly negative. But I was aware that this is a solid company and have been seeing it on SEA getting popular. When Oaktree bought shares recently that is when I started to invest in it. Now for the long term.
Oh absolutely. My biggest concern is US market blowing up in 2026. Confident on SEA and Grab but tariffs brought Grab to 3s again when it should’ve really been priced at 5-6 at that point. I might sell the house and buy if grab suffers next year 😂
I have done a similar DD and have been adding progressively for the last couple months. It’s now one of my biggest positions that I intend on holding over the next 10 years. Often go to SEA, the potential is incredible and as that middle class continues to grow, many more customers will follow suit. Cost of living will also increase which I believe will contribute greatly to revenue. I plan on adding even more, especially if a pullback occurs.
Thanks for your input. There’s a few things address here: 1.) Grab will give discounts and give advantageous discounts to drivers but they haven’t really done anywhere near 40%, usually 20% at most. Incentive spending has fallen by 75% since 2021, so they have handled the discounts well. Grab is becoming more efficient with its driver pay and other services. Basically this is mainly a customer acquisition cost that has gone down in recent years. In Singapore it’s much more manageable for them, so they make less revenue in the emerging markets; btw their revenue is now rising significantly in those EM areas. 2.) cash heavy areas in emerging markets is a key part of the grab thesis. Prosperity, cell phone use, and consumer spending are all rising is SEA. Grab assists with that because they offer banking services along with multiple other services all in one. They actively contribute to banking those people and integrating rising markets into their ecosystem. It’s essentially bullishness on SEA and confidence that Grab is able to capitalize given its unique traits as a company. 3.) I actually am not very aware of data on drivers getting basically scammed. I haven’t heard of any concerns about that, so it might just be negligible, but I’ll do more research. 4.) PE ratio is meaningless at this point. Profit is so slim that the PE is going to be very, very high. I’m expecting a revenue increase that beats expectations this coming earnings report, and if they manage to convert even a few percentage of that revenue into profit the following quarter (about 2-4%), their PE ratio would fall drastically (20-40). So I am overall not super concerned. Let me know if you have more questions or concerns, and thanks again!
Absolutely. Thanks for your input! I think the majority of people are willing to use Grab over other services, but don’t because of economic constraints. As SEA continues to grow those barriers will fall and more and more will switch to grab. Income goes up, along with prices for grab services falling, means huge potential revenue! Great for SEA and great for us investors!
Having traveled to PH, I used grab plenty of times for rides and food delivery. With that being said, SEA countries typically have lots of forms of public transportation like taxis, tricycles, jeepneys, buses etc and over a much lower price point. If they can start converting those other modes into their platform, I can see them taking off.
Awesome! Thats the goal, consumers use one service and then steadily adopt the whole ecosystem! Once Grabs efficiency and margins increase we should see prices go down, which makes Grab REALLY dominant over SEA. So I am also very excited to see where it goes. If you’re seriously considering investing, best of luck and be careful!
I’m looking for prices to drop as revenue increases from Grab’s other services! Ideally as Grab’s margins, efficiency, and total revenue across services increase, so does the SEA economy, creating a “double driver” for growth of Grab. Grab is a great way to invest in SEA overall, because over the next decade Grab will benefit heavily from the rising consumer BP. Also, tourism is also set to rise still over the next 5 years, which will help the company grow as well.
China doesn't build a relationships with any country either. Even the trade deal in trump era is still better. China is infamous for market dump other smaller countries that destroy many local business. While US only want to sell their high-tech weapons. I don't think China can decouple from USA anytime soon. China's domestic consumption artificially looks good because of the stimulus. Europe economy is in bad shape. SEA has low purchasing power that even their market dump tactics failed.
Already in. LFG. Grab is omnipresent in SEA. It’s amazing how much it’s used there if you’ve traveled.
They’re certainly spending a lot, but their margins, revenue, and profitability are all increasing. Plus, there’s still a large untapped market in most of SEA, besides Singapore. The idea is that GRAB can gain revenue and profitability across its entire portfolio of services, thus being able to eventually lower prices and out-price competitors. Most of grabs services are now profitable, or close to it, and I’m looking at their revenue and margins to increase. Once Grab’s operational efficiency is increased, margins and revenue go up across their portfolio, they are protected against downturns or market difficulties in one sector through two means: 1.) Multiple separate sources of cashflow. This is fairly self-explanatory, but for example Grab will be hedged against a downturn in their ride-share business once their financial, delivery, and ad revenue is solidly profitable. 2.) They can also afford to lower prices for one service to attract more customers and bring them into the ecosystem. As frequent Grab customers continue to transition to use all their services, the company now has a lot of ability to allocate where they want their revenue to stream from. Competitor in the taxi service? They can afford to keep prices low due to excellent cash flow from their other businesses.
The thing with GRAB is they are still burning a lot of money every year to compete in the local market. I mean every countries in SEA has their local share ride thingy. Indonesia has gojek (300ml of pop), vietnam(100ml of pop) has xanhsm, and they all burned lots of money to try to dominate, they all work on share ride, delivery, etc, not to mention Didi from China also wants a piece of the cake. Risky move i reckon
You may be right on TA and FA, but let's not pretend this is intellectually honest: >So why will growth of SEA outstrip GRAB’s growth projections? Because GRAB actually helps EFFECTUATE the rise in banking, prosperity, and upward mobility. Grab accelerates prosperity in Southeast Asia by connecting people, businesses, and finance through its super-app: >It provides steady income to drivers and merchants who once worked informally, digitizing their earnings and making them credit-eligible. >Its GrabPay wallet and financial services help millions of unbanked citizens save, borrow, and insure themselves for the first time. By linking small merchants to online customers, Grab expands local business and creates a huge amount of potential for upward mobility. It's an SME masquerading as a tech MNC. Its opportunity to be a super app has passed. In price conscious SEA, consumers and platform workers aren't afraid to leave; out of all the similar apps, Grab has treated its consumers and platform workers the worst. This week, all of my rides have been with either Gojek or TADA after comparing prices across the usual apps. Anyway, I'm in.
am from singapore, grab is insanely expensive here and they have lost substantial market share to other ride hailing / food delivery companies as they offer similar services at over 20-30% cost saving. ive recently cancelled my grabunlimited subscription too as ive started using other services more. however, they might be doing well in other parts of SEA but as a singaporean, i will be sitting out and wishing it works out for you as they are obviously greedy in the way they operate in singapore.
Absolutely! Ideally we see rising prosperity and upward mobility in Indonesia and the rest of SEA! Great for humanity and great for GRAB! A lot of my DD is just that I’m bullish on SEA, not just Grab! Best of luck!
That’s just not really true, Grab still dominates most of SEA. It has around 80–90%+ share in places like Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, and remains #1 in Singapore and Indonesia. Only Vietnam’s Xanh SM has made a dent. And that’s only talking about rideshare and not any of their other products. Grab is still a dominant company that is unique from other services. Subsidies aren’t rising either — they’ve fallen to ~10% of GMV, and the CEO’s focused on cutting costs, not throwing money around atp. Grab’s still the region’s top super-app by far, with multiple times the volume of any rivals. Margins are going to rise and the business will gain operational efficiency as time goes on. Also, there’s still a vast untapped market for GRAB and similar companies. Present market share is not the primary expectation of what will be driving growth, its future spending of consumers who aren’t spending now. I believed grab is equipped to grow from its current valuation even if it loses a bit of market share in one of its services. If your slice is smaller but the pie triples, you’ve still gained value.
It's even worse for the rest of SEA. Grab has been throwing subsidy after subsidy to try and corner the market but they are steadily losing market share to late entries.
Sure, so the high market share is actually meaningless. As I explained in my post it only has 6% of the population of SEA using its app. That leaves an insane amount of untapped revenue. At of this next earnings I believe GRAB trades at a 60 PE ratio. Then the next earnings I think GRAB continually grows as we see a rise in the native populations use of GRAB (from about 6% to 25% over 10 years. This would require a rate of growth LESS than current levels), and we eventually see a 25-50PE with about .50-$1 in EPS, placing it at a 50-100 billion dollar valuation. Grab will increase their margins while also increasing customer usage so profit per customer should also rise. (This is all based on a 10-15 year timeline of growth within tourism, native populations use spending power, and grabs expanding ecosystem). You just picked an arbitrary valuation to declare as worth it, when you fail to grasp the earnings potential of GRAB.
I am not critizing or anything, I had a good day so I am helping. What you are saying here "the rising prosperity over the next decade in SEA will benefit GRAB more than alternative companies" I would agree with. But I want to tell you also Grab is no super app, its an horrible app, first thing they should do is bring out a better app. Rich people didnt get rich because they were throwing out money, if I can save 20% by just clicking on another app I will forver click on the other app. Grabs only advantage here in Thailand is that only they have the contracts with the western food restaurants. So 90% of my food I have to order through Grab. Restaurants which have contracts with Grab and Lineman , Lineman is about 15% cheaper because those fees are not that high. So if I order from a restaurant which also is availbale on lineman, i order there. most locals use lineman because its the cheapest and it has most local restaurants. 3 years ago Grab was a super app when there was no competition and everybody ordered there taxis on Grab but since Bolt showed up everybody uses Bolt. Its minimum 20% cheaper and more convinient plus the app interface is way better. I also can say I have smart friends which are invested in Grab stocks, a long time already, thats how I ended up clicking on this post because I was thinking "oh wow now WSB is also catching on Grab then it can only go higher" those friends also called Palantir and Sofi waaaaaay back and made decent profit
Great input. I think that’s definitely something that gives me pause, but the thesis on grab is that the rising prosperity over the next decade in SEA will benefit GRAB more than alternative companies. People will have more spending money and will switch to GRAB, because the higher price is outweighed by the convenience of using a superapp as opposed to a one-dimensional ridehailing app. Have a good one
They are all over LatAm and SEA delivery more cars than Tesla.
Looks like a moonshot if SEA expansion hits, but could also tank if pilots flop. I’ll for sure be keeping an eye out on this
Yah, have lived in Thailand, HK, KL over past few years. KL cost of living was essentially rounding error. Though most of the American exodus is towards Spain. Not many can settle in SEA and feel content.
Interesting. I've never heard of Xanh, yet I've used grab a 1000 times in my travel of SEA
Whoever is not banned start posting this \^\^\^ to comments in WSB, WARRIORS WE MUST SEEK COUNCIL ACROSS ALL THE LAND AND SEA OF MEME EARTH!
From what I can tell, pretty much. Compare the vitrol versus India in Chinese media versus vitrol against China in Indian media. Chinese mocking of India exists, but most of their energy is directed towards the US, Japan, or even Korea, and SEA, not India.
Stay awake in SEA till 4am to listen about IVF 😩 at least my wife’s long position is not cooked. Was about to pull everything out for her.
On phone so can’t read article. But looks like if Europe also puts tariffs on China. Which is doubtful. I assume mango would love for that though as it would way up the pressure since chinas exports to Europe and SEA have gone up enough to counter the drop in USA exports
WRD (WeRide) (disclaimer I’m holding shares) Why? Here’s a few reasons: - receives the title of most misunderstood stock. Current valuation is a complete mismatch with company performance. - they hold the largest global regulatory footprint of all AV companies. That’s an important anchor in a regulatory space of autonomous vehicles. - Robotaxi is just one flavour they provide (which grew 3x in revenue last quarter) In an emerging market, sometimes Autonomous busses, delivery vans and urban sweepers are an easy entry point. - partnerships include ride hailers like Uber, Grab and WeChat and AutoNavi in China (Robotaxi), Yutong (Bus) and Nvidia, Lenovo, Tencent (Tech) - established partnerships bring in customers, which is important for WeRide to scale. - asset light model. - diversified revenue models. - just recently had their big AV bus break in Guangzhou (tender award). not yet reported on. - Safety: more than 2200 days of non liable incidents (and counting. - WePilot. This is WeRides co-developed Adas product (together with market leader Bosch Automotive). Think of it as their Tesla FSD competitor. Only this system can be licensed by car manufacturers. It’s sensor agnostic (vision only, multi sensor). A single architecture, which makes it cost effective (compared to market peers). Leverage through partner Bosch haves them positioned as a key consideration for Chinese car manufacturers that need a non-Chinese entry point. First SOP done end of September. (not reported on yet, probably through Bosch). - WeRide is the most dominant Robotaxi company in the Middle East. Not only in current presence, also in guidance and ambition. This region has probably the supportive mobility agenda (after China). - Singapore is launched with Grab. Both Robotaxi and Bus. Other SEA countries likely to follow soon. - WeRide has the broadest presence (of any Chinese AV company in Europe). Both early commercial ops, pilot in Robobus and Robotaxi).
Why did MELI and SEA Limited both get hammered right before the close?
I think you're right that the labour market makes the economics of deploying in South East Asia, trickier than the US, but I think the same holds true to a lesser extent in the middle east (given migrant labour) and China, and they're already growing in those markets with decent profitability. I'm also pretty optimistic in general for the potential of premium taxi services in SEA given the popularity of Green SM / Xanh SM. I don't think Road Networks are a major concern. The money is made in high traffic areas with more developed networks and generally robotaxi services operate on limited routes or neighborhoods. I dont perceive this to be a long-term challenge given the pace of progress and the talent in these companies (in general, not specific to WeRide). Re: public transit, WeRide includes buses and the Singapore pilot is leveraging them. In relation to Grab/Uber, both companies have or are making investments into WeRide. Grab is actually operating the routes in Singapore.
This is what happens when you give China six months to start making other plans. They've been aggressively pursuing trade deals with Europe, South America, SEA, and Africa. The AI bubble and rare earth minerals bottleneck just gave China that extra confidence to flex a bit harder and be more aggressive than they were in April, because they know they can. Taco and his administration are in much hotter water with a weaker hand. The CCP are card counters and Taco doesn't understand how percentages work.