SM

Live-Kaleidoscope-72

In procurement, saw dell do differently than other brands. However now I see governments, enterprise, and SM business transition to Lenovo.

Crazy_Donkies

Me from January and I was way off. https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/s/ln2AJZf5SM

Crazy_Donkies

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/s/ln2AJZf5SM

extrabigbrain

all these Euros going on about how great America is on SM is suppose to make us feel better? Give me a break - US biggest weakest link is that the food is absolute shit. I have a go to dinner that I cook thay consists of sautéing ground beef, tomatoes, and mushrooms. When I make it in the U.S. it’s practically flavorless. I made it in the UK and in France on holiday and it was bursting with flavor.

CanisMajoris85

mid? The graphics were low/mid tier several years ago. RX 7600 released in 2023 and it's the mobile version in SM.

Lower_Skin_3683

WTF was said SM is pumping and SNDk took a major shit

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

I am buying with SM Energy (US oil producer) calls options but I try to see how much they will make. I believe it's a cash machine, Q2 could be fantastic. Do you agree with this the AI slop from GPT? SM Energy generated approximately **$309 million of adjusted net income in Q1 2026**, after excluding one-time merger-related costs and non-cash hedge mark-to-market losses. Assuming oil prices remain around **$75 per barrel** and the full-year benefits of the Civitas acquisition and synergies are realized, annual adjusted net income could reach roughly **$1.4–1.5 billion**. That would translate into an estimated **EPS of about $7.2–7.5 per share**, with upside if production and synergies exceed current expectations.

insertwittynamethere

Look, the market is highly irrational. Highly. Economics would tell you that every thing that has been done under this admin should've brought us to recession or worse based on the math. The thing about Economics is it's highly psychological, and we live in a time of irrationality and alternative facts... there is a significant chunk of the populace who does not believe economic facts and proceed accordingly. The party in power is very great at lying and pulling up those lies and falsehoods to pull people in. The party in power is also very, very friendly, corruptly even, to a significant chunk of the most wealthy, powerful companies and individuals on this planet who have a vested interest in seeing their own goals realized through the corrupt bargain with those in power. These people also own significant chunks of all media that influences the general populace. Moreover, trading has more and more been overtaken by also trading that responds to headlines and not always substance. This leads to the ability to manipulate market direction based on timing of statements by important political and financial figures, as well as the propagation of that info across news and SM channels, the majority of which is owned/controlled by wealthy individuals who have a Faustian bargain with major players of government. So, yeah, the market is truly irrational and divorced from reality, and a lot of it has been gamed across the board to prop it up. A self-fulfilling prophecy in a way. Economics only goes so far when its underlying expectation is that people are rational actors. I'm in manufacturing, and we have been dealing with hit after hit since January 20, 2025. It has not been good, and every single component and piece of raw material costs a lot more than what it did before January 20, 2025.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

SM Energy. Calls options strike 32.5 - 35 - 37.7 - 40. Deadline August 21

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

You buy AI and SpaceX, fine. I buy US oil producers ! MTDR - SM - DVN - OXY - XOM There is no "peace plan" US-Iran. The U.S. concessions are so significant that it is indeed hard to believe the Senate will agree to put in writing that Iran has won the war. That is why the markets and the CME Group are not allowing futures prices to fall below $75—the probability of the negotiations failing is simply too high. Second, Energy Agency's warning of a looming supply overhang next year against firmer near-term demand to replenish depleted inventories. Be ready

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

What to buy?? US oil producers !! MTDR - SM - DEVON - OXY - XOM The U.S. concessions are so significant that it is indeed hard to believe the Senate will agree to put in writing that Iran has won the war. That is why the markets and the CME Group are not allowing futures prices to fall below $75—the probability of the negotiations failing is simply too high. Second, Energy Agency's warning of a looming supply overhang next year against firmer near-term demand to replenish depleted inventories.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Qatar is not optimistic on peace talks 👀 not yet finalized 👀 I will buy ultra cheap call options on SM Energy (4 PM) ✅

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Super expensive AI stocks and SpaceX, ultra cheap US oil stocks. BofA upgraded Exxon yesterday from Hold to Buy. It's a sign. US Strategic stock has to be refueled. SM Energy is a bargain 😳

Lower_Skin_3683

if it's in the s&p 500 then it's affected SU CNQ PBF MUR EPD SM ENB are green

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Check US oil producers (na maritime transport issues). SM Energy. $SM. Q2 could be huge!!! Guys, the war isn’t over. The U.S. Central Command (CentCom) issued today a statement early Thursday afternoon regarding its “seizure” of the oil tanker Jalveer in the Gulf of Oman. “CentCom took action against the Jalveer, flying the flag of Guinea-Bissau, as it attempted to transport oil from Iran via the Gulf of Oman,” according to the U.S. statement. A U.S. aircraft fired two Hellfire missiles at the ship’s engine room. CentCom accuses the ship of attempting to transport Iranian oil, thereby violating the U.S. blockade in effect against the ports of the Islamic Republic.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

$SM is SM Energy and now "Send Me .... to the MOON" SM Energy, Best 100% US-owned oil producer, undervalued and on the rise after the acquisition of Civitas with a highly pragmatic and effective CEO – a sure bet. Simple: In this sector, everyone is overvalued, we've found a gem: SM Energy ! Target is P/B 2.5 (today at P/B 1.1). Q2 will be huge. SM is a cash machine. Buyback is in place. Send Me... Send Me... Send Me to the .......

Not_Campo2

Dude, I predicted the Iran war start to the hour, but instead of loading up on BNO and USO calls then I just loaded up on US exploratory oil companies like SM and Oxy and APA in mid February. Sure they did decent, but the others would have been 10x easy

Lower_Skin_3683

I held SM PBF MUR SU CNQ DVN. The wild swings last month on the peace tweets. Anyhow I only have a few left. I would keep raising my sell price then they'd crash several times. Fell on Friday, Monday and Tuesday. I woke up at 4am and thought they were going down further but nope pump up. Lol

Lower_Skin_3683

the regard who bought calls on USO and SM MF you were right. port back in order as yesterday and premarket was wild.

essgee9

Reddit doesn’t have a monopoly on user-generated text content. Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram each have about 3B monthly active users (MAU), so that takes Meta off the table as a customer. Reddit comes in at paltry 800M MAU, by comparison. Reddit is #10 amongst the large social media sites. Note that it’s thought that OpenAI started out by scraping Twitter for training its models, in addition to Project Gutenberg and other open texts, and PDFs of commercial texts as well. No doubt, X has likely locked down Twitter for training Grok, but that takes another customer off the table. That still leaves TikTok, Threads (also owned by Meta), Bluesky, Pinterest, Snapchat, Telegram, etc. as sources of training data. Don’t forget that the Chinese SM sites, like WeChat, also generate huge amounts of data.

Lower_Skin_3683

I approve of SM.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Hold or buy SM Energy😀. Sell GOOG 😡 Never touch again CRWV 🙏. Stop spending time on Reddit 🧠

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

$SM Stay focus on SM Energy. Buyback in action, best US oil production without maritime issue. Crude oil forecats for the year is $90 (was supposed to be $60). Q2 will be very very strong! And sell ASAP $GOOG (planning high dilution, offering + ATM Q3-4).

bulldog5253

You do realize that SM energy is Chinese backed and is such a small player. I would swap SM for a oxy or EOG or even XOM. Same goal better player.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

As I said last week many times, stay focus on SM Energy, US oil producer quite cheap, not maritime transport issues ! $SM

olmoscd

I didn’t read the post because you are a lazy idiot and didn’t write it but here’s what Gemini thinks about your ChatGPT post: This investor is running a **hyper-concentrated, leveraged play on a structural energy supply crunch**. They have essentially bet their entire book on the thesis that the world is chronically undersupplied with fossil fuels and that energy companies will prioritize share buybacks and dividends over new, high-cost capital projects. Here is a breakdown of what they are actually saying: ### The "Thesis" * **Anti-Tech/Growth:** They are explicitly avoiding speculative sectors (AI, tech) to focus on "physical constraints." * **The "Yield" Strategy:** They believe energy companies have learned their lesson: instead of drilling more (which destroys capital), these companies are acting as cash-flow machines, paying down debt and buying back stock. * **Leverage:** They are using margin debt (9.57% of their portfolio weight) at a 3.82% interest rate. This means they are betting that the capital appreciation and dividends of these energy stocks will significantly outperform that 3.82% cost of borrowing. ### The Portfolio Composition * **Offshore Drilling (OFS):** This is their highest conviction sub-sector (Valaris, Seadrill, Noble). They are betting that because no one has built new rigs in years, the "dayrates" (the price it costs to rent a drilling rig) will skyrocket. * **Upstream Oil & Gas:** A mix of Permian and Gulf of Mexico players (SM Energy, Murphy, Chord, Matador, etc.). These are the "producers" that generate the cash. * **Coal:** Betting on "gas-to-coal" switching in Asia. This is a contrarian play, as they acknowledge the media ignores this sector. * **Infrastructure/Other:** Using "tollbooth" companies (like FTAI) to profit from the logistics of moving energy globally. ### The Risks (What they aren't saying) While they sound confident, this portfolio is **extremely volatile** for three main reasons: 1. **Macro Sensitivity:** If the global economy enters a recession, energy demand typically plummets, which would crush both the price of oil and the dayrates for the offshore rigs. 2. **Margin Risk:** Because they are using margin, a sharp, sudden drawdown in these stocks could trigger a margin call, forcing them to sell assets at the absolute worst time. 3. **Concentration:** They have zero diversification. If the "energy shortage" thesis is wrong—or if government policy changes rapidly—this portfolio has no "anchor" assets to protect them from a total wipeout. **In short:** This person is gambling on a "super-cycle" in energy. It is a high-risk, high-reward strategy that requires the oil market to remain tight and prices to stay elevated. If they are right, they outperform significantly. If they are wrong, the leverage will likely amplify their losses very quickly. Would you like me to analyze any of the specific stocks mentioned in their list, or perhaps compare their "shortage" thesis to current market data?

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

SM Energy (US oil producer) is so low, lost a lot past week! (not yet close to my average of $19 🌈), I call it a "stock for sale". Should I buy more? Should have bought SNDK or MU or DRAM 💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰

Lower_Skin_3683

get money from wherever they can I hope more people delete those SM apps. nobody wants more subscription services to access features

Lower_Skin_3683

i hate it. I uninstalled it and deactivated IG F a $3.99 a month subscription plan for each SM app. greedy zuck

Lower_Skin_3683

I deactivated IG. I'm never on FB. Last time I used Whatsapp was September. We don't want anymore SM. F $3.99 subscription services, threads, metaverse, forum

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Average $90 for the year 2026 is not cheap price, it's perfect for SM Energy. Planning was $65... They will print a lot of cash, wait for Q2 and Q3

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

I stay focus on oil producers. With crude oil hovering around $90 throughout 2026, I recommend SM Energy (SM), one of the top U.S. producers and the most undervalued, with rock-solid corporate governance, a 100% buy.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

With crude oil hovering around $90 throughout 2026, I recommend SM Energy, one of the top U.S. producers and the most undervalued, with rock-solid corporate governance—a 100% buy.

Due-Papaya-6217

FEMY for AH seems to be pumping on SM

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Still focus on SM Energy , $SM (upgraded to $55) but yesterday was very very weak (-4.5%). Fcel shit stock was at + 29%...

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Stay focus on SM Energy $SM, upgraded yesterday to $55 🎯 Some are calling the stock "Send Me to the ...."

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Still Holding SM Energy, SM, new price target upgrade yesterday to $55 from underperforming to outperform ✅ Subreddits meme call the stock "Send Me to the ...."

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

SM Energy up again 😳

Careful_Response4694

God bless that OP who recommended SM stock a month ago, I'm up like 35% on shares.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Sorry, but I see things in a negative light,RED: 30-year rates are rising, crude oil prices are too and could skyrocket, and Nvidia’s guidance will have to factor in the Chinese Communist Party’s blockade against Nvidia—which is viewed as a Trojan horse and a competitor to Huawei, a company working with Deepseek V4 to break free from the U.S. The smart money has already made its profits on Sandisk, so there won’t be any more buyers. The same goes for AI infrastructure, which has hit its peak and can’t go any higher—too much debt and some data centers canceled. So I only see U.S. oil producers as winners for Q2 and Q3, so we need to plan ahead. *My positions: SM Energy N°1, Puts on Nvidia, FIX, SNDK* *Calls on PATH, CRK, SM*

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

XOP etf, US oil producers + $SM, SM Energy, low P/B and P/E fwd

Joehax00

Excellent analysis OP! This is exactly the sort of DD people should do before YOLOing into some speccy dogshit company that gets pumped on SM.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

$CRK in the RED !! Could fly in August, keep it. I like SM Energy, $SM, still very low P/B and P/E Fwd. Q2 earnings will be very very strong for many US oil producers.

Lower_Skin_3683

I got off SM for that reason. I don't take responsibility for any META action as a result though. I'm on WSB but at least there's a reason why I'm here and it is about money. I can't control and dominate the markets cause I didn't create the game and it's rules. Trust we still try and find a work around to get over.

Jealous_Slice9371

I'm up 33% on my SM calls since Monday 🚀 

nanotothemoon

You are in a Reddit thread. You replied to my comment, which was a reply to this comment. Here is the beginning for context: https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/s/Vx7eOhO5SM

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

$SM SM Energy P/B 1 P/E (FWD) 5.5 Mkt 7.5B $MTDR Matador Res P/B 1.2 P/E (FWD) 9.38 Mkt 7.19B $CHRD Chord Energy P/B 1 P/E (FWD) 8.18 Mkt 8B $XOM Exxon Mobil P/B 2.4 P/E (FWD) 13.78 Mkt 633.2B $DVN Devon Energy P/B 1.9 P/E (FWD) 8.13 Mkt 29.36B I confess, my choice goes to SM Energy for its ultra-rigorous management, low P/B, buyback in place, 100% production on US soil, therefore without maritime transport costs, well-controlled CAPEX, hedge contracts around 50%... and a nice J.P. Morgan buy target at $40

Lower_Skin_3683

I had to delete SM because of his annoying azz reels 

Lower_Skin_3683

i unfollowed, blocked and then deactivated my SM accounts. no views, likes, comments or shares given.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

SM Energy, I see $40 end of June.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

SM Energy (SM) has its price target raised today to $39 by Truist Securities... I like it

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Hold strong SM Energy $SM 🛢️

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Good for calls on SM Energy !

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Cash is going to pour in Q2, Q1 was used to accumulate fees and expenses. Now the way is clear to collect as much as possible, and waiting for Q2 earnings to have official proof of the surge in gains is the best course of action. The CEO is extremely strict and very efficient, part of the buyback will be triggered by early July at the latest, after the final closing of the sale of certain assets. The status quo in the Strait of Hormuz is worsening the pressure on the actual availability of oil every day, the normal flow will have a very hard time re-establishing itself. SM Energy is a member of CME Group, which trades large volumes, and the US is exporting to new customers. I love it. SM Energy produces on US soil, no insurance costs for maritime transport + controlled expenses, a P/B of 1. We're talking about the best US oil ticker. https://preview.redd.it/889wdt0syn0h1.jpeg?width=1473&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bd7da3bcb1e82bd7a3182673c58f547c8f19ca08

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Fuel your portfolio with SM Energy, could fly with oil prices going to $140 😳 $SM. I hold or buy more 

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

SM energy $SM P/B 1 and gaz producer $CRK 

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

I follow you, OK. I have already SM Energy in my portfolie, I love the stock. Huge potential ! What about $CRK ? A perfect target for a squeeze, 33–34% short float is considerable. The risk of a squeeze becomes real if: natural gas prices rebound sharply; an AI/data center catalyst materializes; or someone decides to have some fun and make short sellers pay (justifiably so, because the numbers aren't very good). SQUEEZE

Jealous_Slice9371

SM calls

connor42

Meta reports Facebook has 2.1 Billion DAU FB has deep penetration in a lot of places globally, it often does not have the same connotations as in USA As for only boomers use it, people in their 30, 40s and 50s are likely to live another 30-45yrs!! On bots, while a percentage of those DAU will be bots as with all SM, Meta would be in financial and legal deep shit if they were truly juicing those numbers consciously, and its actually against their interest as bots don’t spend money on products and services they’re advertising Whether something will replace it I’m unsure it’s absolutely possible, but I went from Fark to Slashdot to Digg to Reddit and I’ve found no suitable replacement in 19yrs The network effect matters a lot, FB and Meta’s overall is very strong FB is actually one of few SMs I find truly useful as so many local useful or interesting events are organised / advertised through it. And FB Marketplace is still most convenient way to buy or sell second hand goods I hold zero Meta

QTpieme

Oh I didn’t start trading until Covid. If OP feels better, I had SM energy at 1$ 10 k shares and sold at 2$ only for it to hit 45$

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

SM energy? Send Me.... to the moon

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

SM Energy ! Send Me to the Moon. My N°1 stock. $SM, US oil producers, from low of the year $19 to $230 end of July, real value! Today at only $29. My N°1...

Emotional-Leg1603

Inflation It hurts the SM short term but stock prices will go up as those prices go up in the long term.

MudBloodLite

Is SM Morgan Chase in this world with us?

jerm2z

SM Morgan Chase? SM stands for sadomasochism?

Interesting_Tree_317

Looking to hedge into oil from the ongoing conflict with Iran. My time horizon into these plays are 6-12 months, will hold longer if conditions don’t decompress. Oil prices will stay elevated because they lag and I want an opinion of hedging my portofolio on these 5 companies at each weighting: OXY 20% EOG 20% SM 25% EQNQ 25% MUR 15% Primarily a 60/40 split into WTI (OXY, EOG, SM) and Brent (EQNQ, MUR) I used Perplexity for research and have a grasp into what these companies actually do Would greatly take any advice into how I could adjust my oil thesis hedge plan (lol don’t know what to call this) Fyi: this is not my whole portfolio but just a specific dollar amount I want to split the money into

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

SM Energy. Send Me to the Moon. $SM

joan_goodman

I m still too heavy on oil companies. SM is moving up pretty well though

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

I am buying more SM Energy shares .Bought Puts on Nvidia and SNDK yesterday. Hyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Microsoft) are preparing to spend over $600 billion in capital expenditures (Capex) in 2026, and for the first time, they are turning massively to debt markets to finance these data center infrastructures.    If the return on investment for AI is slow to materialize, this money could "leak" to sectors producing tangible resources like oil.    By April 2026, we are already seeing the beginnings of a rotation toward energy and basic materials, as investors begin to question the extreme valuations of technology.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

I see a switch with new players investing in commodities sector. Do you follow them or not? Is a profound rotation underway? What fundamental questions does this raise? Let's see what information the Q1 letter by BlueTower Asset Management, which was just published on April 15, provides. Read the Q1 Letter. *"We added two new companies to the portfolio, Petróleo Brasileiro (PBR), better known as Petrobras, and SM Energy (SM). Although we have invested in other types of energy sector companies in the past, this is the first time that Blue Tower has invested in oil and gas exploration and production stocks."*

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

SM Energy is waking up. I'm calling it "Send Me to the Moon" ($SM) 🚀 +6.66%, that's a good start!

No-View8147

Last year I decided that energy was the most contrarian thing to do. Everyone hated oil. My 2 biggest positions were SM which is a small, highly debt laden oil company and AMTX, which is an even smaller debt laden biodiesel producer. The largest biofuels refinery in Asia. My portfolio is up 62% this year. The best year I have ever had. Those aren't even my best positions. My weather satellite company (spir) that I have held for years is head of the pack.

Denver80211

SM has been very nice... they have a 20-40 bounce pattern for a long time now

Denver80211

PR SM were low squatters for a long time... up 50% or more so far. it's going to get much better

latending

No SM?

Alpha3K

No worries, I wrote a 16 part article on SM lately, so I don't really see myself having to give value to pointless chalk up to "company is shit". Dunno what you got against them, company is fundamentally doing solid & building on their rearrangement year over year since the 2020 near-death story. The books certainly tell a different story than just "commodity prices", otherwise they'd have been financially drowning throughout towards 2025.

corundum9

I picked PR who has a much better acreage position in the DB and is significantly more nimble. Up over 65% in the last 6 months. I'm sure SM is up 30 some percent in the same time frame just like most of the other smaller Permian players. That's more indicative of a rise in earnings potential with commodity price, not because SM is actually a good company who know what they are doing.

R101C

This is the crux of the matter. https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/s/NvZWsb6SM8

NOLandsMan7

VM how do you feel about the next round of energy earnings given a higher for longer oil/energy thesis? XOM and SM especially.

Not_Campo2

Yeah I’m aware, I was buying us exploratory oil companies in mid January and early February (SM, APA, OXY). The main issue is I view the current oil prices as already artificially low based on supply. There is no easy way to keep prices low now. Shorting futures to artificially lower prices is a short term solution, especially with the real shortages being in diesel and jet fuel. This isn’t going to end soon, and with the continued rhetoric that the war will be over soon it’s actually preventing mitigating policies from being implemented.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Send Me to the M..... ($SM), 5..4..3..2..1.. Someone watching SM Energy Today?

DmonFuhz

Can we stop this insanity now please? WHO can look at a thread of his words, SM posts and say “yep, makes complete factual sense to me!” ???Nevermind.

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Send Me to the Moon ($SM)🚀

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

Call options of SM Energy, down at very attractive levels. It's my N°1 Stock: Send Me to the Moon ($SM)🚀 Read this: SM Energy has hedged only about 27% of its 2026 production. This means that 73% of its oil extracted in Q1 and Q2 is being sold directly at the spot price (the immediate market price), which has reached unprecedented highs in 40 years (with Brent crude jumping 63% in March alone). This free volume will generate massive free cash flow, net of any initial forecasts. Companies like SM Energy boast minuscule price-to-earnings ratios (often below 5x) and double-digit free cash flow returns. As long as the debt is being repaid with this free cash, the fundamental value of the stock mechanically increases due to the decrease in liabilities, even if the share price stagnates. BUT Wells Fargo is advising investors to start taking profits on energy sector stocks. While downgrading the sector's stocks, Wells Fargo is also raising its year-end forecast for the physical price of oil. WTI (US crude): The target is being raised to between $70 and $80 per barrel. The bank justifies this increase by stating that a "geopolitical risk premium" will persist in the short term due to tensions in the Middle East, preventing prices from falling back to last year's lows. This overall recommendation overlooks a striking market anomaly for mid-sized independent exploration and production (E&P) companies, such as SM Energy, which have a large portion of their production unhedged. It seems to me that we should take advantage of the current lull, the low prices of options, to attack the baby. If oil is expensive at the pump, we might as well recoup that through the stock market.

Life_is_too_short_

Only if Trump announces that each Oil tanker will be escorted through the Strait of Hormuz with: 1) US mine sweeper precedes 2) US Missile Intercepter SM-3 3) A US Destroyer escort

Scalpaholic

That's why AliExpress now provides free lifetime replacement of any $2 FPV. Valid proof of being hit with $2 Million SM4 Missiles or equivalent required.

Relative-Ad-6791

From claude ai. The Korean play is interesting im going to look into it more “Lockheed Martin (LMT) is the single biggest beneficiary. They manufacture PAC-3 MSE interceptors, THAAD interceptors, JASSM/LRASM, and PrSM — essentially the four munition families most depleted by Epic Fury and most needed for Pacific reconstitution. The Pentagon is partnering with Lockheed Martin to triple PAC-3 MSE production from roughly 600 annually to 2,000 by 2030 , and THAAD production is being quadrupled from 96 to 400 per year, including a new Munitions Acceleration Center in Arkansas. PrSM production would be quadrupled to 1,134 units in FY2027 at $1.7 million each. That’s multi-year, multi-billion-dollar revenue visibility across three separate program lines from one company. RTX (Raytheon) — Tomahawks and SM-3s. Tomahawk production is set for a 1,200% increase from 58 in 2026 to 785 in FY2027 , and RTX has framework agreements to increase SM-3 Block IB and IIA output by two to four times. RTX also builds the SM-6, which is the Navy’s do-everything interceptor for the Pacific. They co-produce Patriot interceptors with Lockheed. Northrop Grumman (NOC) — B-2 operations in Epic Fury showcased the platform, but the bigger play is that both Northrop Grumman and Raytheon have been awarded contracts to develop common rocket motors that plug into multiple missile families. If you’re building the engine that goes into SM-6, future hypersonic interceptors, and next-gen standoff weapons, you’re positioned across the entire reconstitution wave. They also build the GBI homeland defense interceptors and are a key player in the Next Generation Interceptor program. Boeing — This one’s a chokepoint story more than a growth story. Both US and Japanese PAC-3 production depends on the availability of crucial seeker heads, which have been slowly coming off production lines at Boeing. Boeing makes JDAM kits (deep stockpiles consumed), SDB IIs, and Harpoon. They’re also the other half of the Patriot interceptor production with Lockheed. Their defense revenue benefits, but their seeker head production is actually a bottleneck constraining everyone else’s ramp. L3Harris — Named in Modigliani’s piece as one of the companies with framework agreements under Deputy Secretary Feinberg’s Munitions Acceleration Council. They build key sensor and electronics components across multiple interceptor programs, and they’re the prime on some counter-drone systems that are now in urgent demand. The Second Tier — Where the Smarter Money Might Look Aerojet Rocketdyne (now part of L3Harris) — Solid rocket motors for virtually every interceptor and missile in the U.S. inventory. Every production ramp across every program flows through their motor supply. They’re the hidden dependency underneath all of the above. General Dynamics (GD) — Ordnance and tactical systems division makes the bomb bodies, propellant, and munitions components. Less sexy than the primes, but when you’re rebuilding 13,000+ expended munitions worth of inventory, someone has to make the casings and explosives. Kratos Defense (KTOS) — Target drones and low-cost attritable systems. The Epic Fury lesson about cost-exchange ratios is accelerating the push toward cheaper, mass-producible autonomous systems. Kratos is the leading pure-play in that space. If the Pentagon gets serious about not fighting the next war with $4M interceptors against $100K threats, companies like Kratos benefit. Anduril — Not publicly traded (yet, though IPO rumors persist), but their Roadrunner interceptor-drone is specifically designed to solve the cost-exchange ratio problem. Epic Fury is the best marketing case study they could ask for. The International Angle South Korea’s M-SAM (Cheongung II) achieved its first combat hit against Iranian missiles during Epic Fury in the UAE. That’s a combat validation event for LIG Nex1 and Hanwha Aerospace, the Korean manufacturers. The Korean defense export sector was already booming — this accelerates it. Eurosam (MBDA/Thales) — Currently producing around 100 interceptors in 2026, an increase from around 60 previously. European allies now have their own depletion anxiety, and MBDA’s SAMP/T is one of the few non-American systems that can handle tactical ballistic missiles. Rheinmetall — Not directly in the interceptor game, but they’re the European leader in ammunition production and are building new facilities specifically for munitions surge capacity. The lesson from Epic Fury generalizes to all munition types.”

Relative-Ad-6791

Im having claude ai investigate the munitions situation this was one of the reports “The comparison is brutal, and the data that’s emerged from Epic Fury makes it even worse than pre-war modeling suggested. Let me walk through all three of your questions. China’s Inventory vs. Ours Setting aside nuclear weapons (different calculus), the conventional missile imbalance is the one that matters for a Taiwan scenario, and it’s severe. China’s PLARF fields approximately 900 conventionally armed SRBMs, 1,300 conventional MRBMs, 500 conventional IRBMs, and 400 ground-launched cruise missiles  — that’s roughly 3,100 conventional missiles before you even count air-launched or naval systems. By 2023, the DoD assessed China’s total ballistic missile force at around 2,850 missiles , and that number has only grown since. Now compare that to what we have to defend against them. The total inventory of sea-based SM-3s is around 330 missiles, far below what might be required in the Pacific region.  According to Stimson Center modeling, the United States would likely run out of Patriot and upper-tier interceptors within the first 24 hours of a military conflict with China.  That was the assessment before Epic Fury burned through a quarter of THAAD and SM-3 stocks and a quarter to a third of Tomahawks. The cost-exchange ratio is the structural problem. Iran was bad enough — $100K-$300K missiles vs. $4-5M interceptors. China’s deployment of massed, low-cost missiles and drones would impose unfavorable cost ratios as multiple interceptors costing tens of millions of dollars are expended on single targets that are 10 to 100 times cheaper and quicker to produce.  China isn’t Iran. Their industrial base can mass-produce at scale, and they’ve been expanding missile production across 136 sites, preparing not just for deterrence but for the logistics of a long war.  The Heritage Foundation assessment is the most alarming: high-end interceptors like SM-3, SM-6, PAC-3 MSE and THAAD would likely be exhausted within days of sustained combat, with some systems depleted after just two to three major PLA salvoes. Aggregate US VLS inventories at an estimated 17,000 rounds are insufficient for even one full fleet reload.  What Happens If This Goes Another Month The ceasefire appears to be holding as of yesterday, but your instinct to ask “what if” is right because ceasefire ≠ peace deal, and the administration itself has said the joint force remains ready to resume combat operations.  If fighting resumed for another 30 days at anything close to the pre-ceasefire tempo, the consequences cascade: Interceptor crisis becomes Pacific crisis. A former Japanese Defense Ministry official warned that depletion of Patriot interceptors could take years to replenish and would have a serious impact on readiness in the Indo-Pacific, including the defense of Taiwan.  THAAD systems were already being pulled from South Korea. As one analyst put it, “It’s hard to overstate the irony of THAAD, a symbol of the pivot to Asia, being removed in the dead of night for a new war in the Middle East.”  Standoff weapons approach Winchester. Tomahawk production in 2026 was 58 missiles. The proposed FY2027 budget calls for a 1,200% increase to 785 , but that’s a budget request, not missiles on ships. Another month of operations would push Tomahawk and JASSM inventories into territory where the Navy literally cannot reload its VLS tubes for Pacific contingencies without stripping other theaters bare. The signal to Beijing compounds. This is the part that doesn’t get enough attention. Every week of continued expenditure is visible to Chinese intelligence. They’re watching the magazine drain in real time. Prolonged hostilities with Iran would only deepen America’s Pacific vulnerability  — and China doesn’t need classified intelligence to know it. The AEI cost tracker, the FPRI data, the Congressional reprogramming actions are all public. Could Reporting on Our Capacity Signal an End? This is your sharpest question, and I think the answer is yes, it already did — partially. The pattern from the Twelve Day War last summer is the precedent. Interceptor inventory strain may have led to the end of the Twelve-Day War — had the conflict continued for another few days or another week, it could have become critical.  The same dynamic appears to have operated here, just on a larger scale across 38 days. Look at the sequence: public reporting on interceptor depletion intensified in weeks 3-4, the AEI cost tracker became a reference point for Congressional pressure, and the ceasefire materialized almost exactly when multiple analysts were projecting critical thresholds. That’s not coincidence — it’s the political economy of munitions scarcity forcing strategic outcomes. But here’s the counterargument you should stress-test: the administration’s public posture is the exact opposite. Over 38 days, the American joint force struck more than 13,000 targets  and the White House framed this as decisive victory, not exhaustion-driven termination. The political narrative is “we won so completely Iran begged for a ceasefire.” The structural reality is that both sides had strong incentives to stop — Iran because 80%+ of its defense industrial base was destroyed, and the U.S. because the opportunity cost in Pacific readiness was becoming untenable. The honest assessment: the munitions reporting didn’t cause the ceasefire, but it constrained the decision space to make it inevitable. Another month wasn’t a real option — not because we’d hit zero, but because the marginal strategic cost of each additional week of operations against Iran was being measured in years of degraded deterrence against China. The people making these decisions know the Stimson Center math. Beijing knows it too. The reconstitution timeline is the real answer to “how far back does this set us”: even with every planned production increase funded and on schedule — PAC-3 to 2,000/year by 2030, THAAD quadrupled, Tomahawk to 785/year — it could take 12-24 months to rebuild to pre-conflict levels at current production rates, assuming no competing demands from other theaters.  And “no competing demands” is a fantasy when you’re staring at the Taiwan Strait. For: The Kill Chain — D3 (Missiles/Air Defense) + D7 (Acquisition/Industrial Base) + D5 (Naval) What: The Watterson & Dean War on the Rocks piece (April 7, 2026) is a must-capture. It’s the most analytically rigorous treatment of the interceptor networking problem in the Pacific, directly quantifies Epic Fury’s impact on Indo-Pacific readiness, and proposes coalition missile defense architecture as the structural solution. The Heritage Foundation January 2026 report on interceptor exhaustion timelines (2-3 PLA salvoes to depletion) and the Stimson Center 24-hour modeling are the two key reference points for Taiwan scenario planning. The Bryen “New Missile Gap” piece adds production rate data across allied nations (Japan PAC-3 at 60/year ceiling, South Korean M-SAM combat debut in Epic Fury). Suggested action: Post-Epic Fury readiness assessment — map current estimated stockpile levels against Taiwan scenario requirements, with production ramp timelines as the reconstitution variable. Source: Watterson & Dean (War on the Rocks), Heritage Foundation, Stimson Center, Bryen (Weapons Substack), Asia Times, Stars and Stripes, Military Times​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Not_Campo2

APA and SM have been absolute beasts for me

NOLandsMan7

SM

Ok_Material3073

Good thing or bad thing that I went hard into $SM?

Accomplished_Job5938

I grabbed some Long calls a week back for SM Energy that doesn't expire until Mid August assuming it'd shoot up a bit by then but they're just standing there at -30%... menacingly!

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

For US oil producers, SM Energy could be a good option, but I'm not certain. I've noticed they only hedge 27% of their oil production, which is low. However, I'm not affiliated with Bloomberg. Do your own research before investing. This is not investment advice.

burner456987123

Pre-market, Most of my holdings are down except WMMVY, KDP, EP, SM, CRGY and I added some OXY last night that’s up a little bit. I usually buy and hold so we’ll have to see what happens over the weekend and Friday (closed market). I suspect a Friday news dump on this war. What about you?

SamLeCoyote_Fix_1

$SM. Personally, I'm only focusing on one stock, SM Energy, which, even with oil falling back to $70, will remain extremely profitable. The merger with Civitas went smoothly, risks have been eliminated, the new CEO's discipline is remarkable, and Q1 and Q2 earnings will be top-notch. They only have 27% of their oil production tied up, the rest is available and is fully capitalizing on the surge in oil prices to pay off debts faster than expected and have allocated 20% to buybacks. Undervalued in January, it has made a lightning-fast return to normal, will fly even higher, by mid-year. I hold, it's easy.

Subspace13

SM Energy

Plump_Apparatus

> We could also pull THAAD, Patriot batteries and our destroyers which would leave an air defense gap for them. Israel has their own retired Patriot batteries, PAC-2s in storage or sent to Ukraine. We don't have any deployed there, PAC-2 or the PAC-3 designed for ballistic missile interception. Israel replaced their PAC-2s with David's Sling. Israel relies on Arrow 2 and 3 for MRBM/ICBM protection. Iron Dome's Tamir for SRBM, rocket, mortar, and artillery protection. A single THAAD battery is deployed there. US destroyers aren't likely to be of much use for Israel. SM-3 would be the relevant missile and it's only useful for mid-course intercepts which geography wise doesn't work out. SM-6 is only useful for terminal intercepts with very limited range. Arrow, David's Sling(Stunner), and Iron Dome(Tamir) interceptors are jointly produced by the US and Israel. The US is never going to cut those off.

StiffDoodleNoodle

Ok. How much are you willing to pay for that goal? How many billions of dollars? How many American service members lives? How many billions in lost in economic growth for our country and our Allies around the world, which by the way WE DIDN’T CONSULT WITH BEFORE HAND?! How much inflation and destruction of your purchasing power are you willing to accept, aka: making yourself poorer? How many Americans would you consider kicking off government subsidized healthcare (which republicans are currently considering)? How many Tomahawks, SM2s, SM3s, Patriots, THAADs, fighter jets, radar systems, etc that we need to deter the actual strategic threats around the world, particularly CHINA?! How much?! Huh? Then ask yourself if you think it’s worth it. I am no conscientious objector. I can be convinced to go to war if it’s actually necessary. That being said I would always rather live with people I don’t like as opposed to killing them. Go take a look at the US debt level and tell me if add more zeros to that number is worth this war. Think about it.

WulfOnTheJob

I can tell you that they are currently trying to cook the books with starlink. In europe, they have billboards and SM ads running in the last month. That signals me that they are desperate for some revenue before they prepare the financials for IPO.

Grimtongues

SM is super risky at the 5-year horizon, which is why it trades under book value. Sure the spot price is increasing because of rising oil prices, but I don't expect a market cap above $8 billion unless it turns into a meme stock.