SPTL
SPDR Barclays Long Term Treasury
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Consumer staples are always good as defensive stocks. But they're still equities. When equities crash, consumer staples will take a hit. They just rebound faster than the rest of the market. The better recession hedges are Treasuries: VTIP/STIP: short-term TIPS. Good for inflationary shocks -- like right now. SPTI/VGIT: intermediate Treasuries. Neutral ballast. SPTL/VGLT/TLT/EDV: deflationary shock absorbers. 2008 + 2020 style crisis hedges.
Why short the market, better to go for BOND ETFs like TLT or VGLT or SPTL BTW: Holding only TLT in my retirement accounts and TMF in Roth Accounts until the market turmoil over ! Will cash out around Jan 26, 2026 and move to QQQ & TQQQ. See TLT and TMF where it goes before Jan 26, 2026. RemindMe! Jan 28, 2026 FOMC meeting !
Open schwab, good broker, now use SPTL (or VGLT) and VOO in 50:50 ratio, rebalance whenever VOO drops more than 5%.
SPTL pays distributions. Just going off of the change in price does not give you the entire picture of how the value has changed.
I agree with all of this. I hold a similar fund in my portfolio. For reference, a total return graph: https://totalrealreturns.com/n/SPTL?
All bonds lost significant value in 2022-2025 due to inflationary fiscal policy post covid and unprecedented fast monetary tightening from the FED. The last time anything like this happened was the 1970s. Longer duration debt like SPTL (similar to TLT) is a hallmark of classic portfolio theory, as longer duration debt is more sensitive to rate changes and macro conditions. In a classic recession like the GFC or dot com or a shock like the pandemic lockdown, long duration government debt like SPTL spikes in value, because the investment opportunities in the real economy dry up or become extremely uncertain, so balance sheets for all investors seek more stable safe flight to safety assets like bonds. This demand drives down yield and drives up bond price. The robo-advisor added these in as a hedge for drawdowns. Despite the steep drawdown in the recent bond bear market as of now this fund is giving you ~15 yrs effective duration exposure to treasury bonds, yielding ~5% at the moment. Theyre lowly correlated or negatively correlated to the stock market the vast majority of the time, so the robo-advisor will be rebalancing between bonds and stocks, similar to a target date fund, but the rebalancing effect will be larger since the volatility of longer duration debt is much higher than something like BND. There are fair criticisms of long duration debt right now, like donald trumps terrible fiscal policies of spend spend spend, on track to keep increasing the deficit year over year despite tarrif revenue. This is bad for bonds, because it makes us less likely to repay without inflating the currency, which could potentially keep rates high and bond price low.
Anyone else moving their cash positions (not referring to checking/emergency funds) into TLT/SPTL? Moved about 10% of my NW into Treasuries in the past week. Figured its a smarter play than letting it sit in a HYSA earning \~4%. Will liquidate my bonds as/when/if i see buying opportunities.
Thanks, SCHQ, SPTL or just bonds? it's just for a week.
VAIX and SPTL, that's as far as I'm diversified.
4% cash (t-bills or floating rate note or money market fund) 5% TIPS (SCHP) 5% longer term bonds (SPTL) 6% multisector or core-plus (PONAX)
Fixed income is a broad category. I’d park cash in preferred stocks or CEFs (like DSL, DLY, SPTL, etc)
SPTL - SPDR US Treasury Long Bonds
According to the performance of the 2008 meltdown, on Oct 7, the market starts its methodical downward slide to the next big crash. Since the market is a Martingale, we know that each event depends only on the previous one There is no such thing as a soft landing. It has never happened before, and there have been many, many business cycles since Wall Street was created. The Bears are right. Now is the time to sell short. BEARX and BRPIX are two plays that will do that nicely. There's also a long term US gvt SPDR that will rise as interest rates fall. The ticket is SPTL
going to start dipping into TLT. Or something like it. blackrock funds are not marginable on fidelity for 30 days. is VGLT or SPTL a worthy alternative or should I take the 30 day cash jail
You're going to have to time that spike perfectly and hope it's a long-term capital gains. If you set a percentage for long treasuries across all your accounts combined, you can hold a more stable one like SPTL/TLT as your core long treasury position and buy/sell EDV in your Roth when the total allocation is under/over. You can also adjust this total percent based on either or not the world seems like it's heading toward another financial meltdown. The SPTL/TLT doesn't have to be a lot either. I hold an intermediate treasury in addition to SPTL as an extended emergency fund. And SPTL is the most "extended": money I would only need in another severe recession. It's not very much, but it's better than sitting in cash. It helps me sleep easier.
I keep trying to post a chart but getting the error that the "image must be in format." It spans Jan 2008 - Dec 2017, which is the start of the recession to when unemployment finally came down to 5%. It compares the SP500 to EDV, TLT, and SPTL for that period. EDV spiked the highest during the 2008 crash, followed by TLT and then SPTL. They all came down at the beginning of 2009 and stayed at the same level until 2010. EDV cratered in late 2010 and stayed full negative through 2011 while SPTL and TLT flirted with the zero line. They all rose again with QE starting in late 2011 through 2013, with SPTL and TLT being higher than EDV because of EDV's previous decline. At the end of 2017, SPTL and TLT were a +32% while EDV was only a +19%. Nationally, employment peaked in October 2009. EDV was -15% compared to TLT and SPTL for most of 2010. Since OP's concern was about another 2008 and Great Recession scenario, EDV isn't the position to be holding "long" on for that, especially in a taxable account. It would be negative right when you need it most. TLDR: I use EDV as a tactical position in my IRA to resuscitate that account at the exact moment it would go into cardiac arrest, being able to dump the position entirely with zero tax consequences. I carry SPTL in a taxable account because it's more likely to be there right when I need it (I was laid off in 2010). I manage both accounts using not separate but total allocation across both and pick up EDV in my IRA when total long treasury position including SPTL is below a set percent. And when it goes over that percent, EDV is what I sell first.
I hope you don't mean \*all\* the proceeds from the house. EDV has a beta of almost 3; SP500 is 1. It's quite \*frisky\*, something you want to be able to trade without hestitation. There's also the tax on the phantom income. Although EDV pays a "dividend" using the surplus proceeds of bonds moving out of the fund after buying new ones, it's still another obnoxious tax detail. TLT is 20+ year duration. Didn't list it because expense ratio is 0.15 compared to SPTL and VGLT 0.03/0.04. It pays a regular coupon so it's not as frisky as EDV, but doesn't have the annoying phantom income either. Tons of options on that one as well, probably more than EDV.
Best performing asset of 2008 was long term treasuries. Bond prices move inversely to interest rate changes. The longer the duration, the bigger the change. During a crisis, the Fed "lowers interest rates" by buying up huge quantities of treasuries, increasing demand and driving up their value and lowering their yields. The Fed threw massive amounts of cash at treasury holders in 2008 to encourage them sell. This is the "flight-to-safety" effect and also what the Fed calls "quantitative easing." They're on sale right now because of the rate hikes. Best yield since, well, 2007 \*just before\* the crash. Stash some cash in a long term treasury fund. SPTL or VGLT are great for buy-and-hold. EDV if you're feeling frisky, but only in an IRA.
SPTL, same thing, cheaper entry and expense ratio.
I just buy the SPTL equivalent...same same but easier entry point.
I'm ready to average down on TLT/SPTL's. 
probably look into SPTL instead....identical with cheaper expense ratio 0.03% versus 0.15%.
The Feds tools are outdated. There is no longer a middle class. There is mega rich, rich and poor. You can make $200 grand between a married couple and one child and in the most productive places (GDP wise) you’ll be poor, California, Texas, now South Florida if you didn’t own a house before COVID. There are a multitude of academic papers showing that COVID made the rich, richer and the poor, poorer. Then Powell has to tame the market and raises rates at the highest speed in history. You want to make money or not lose it all hold leap calls for 2026 in giant companies that have a ton of cash on their balance sheet and are buying back shares increasing dividends. Then, sell June 2024 calls against these to make them cheaper like probability of ITM like 30% max. These will go to zero and lock in bond rates while they are high. Start a small position in TLT or SPTL and add to it as it goes down. If we get to 2% by 2026 you’ll have ~50% gains at least. The rest is just educated gambling like buy REITs that operate in the triple net space like $ADC, $O that pay monthly dividends and high occupancy industrial REITs (e-commerce) like $TRNO $PLD while their value is depressed and then onto distressed assets like commercial property. First rate cut the market will go down but June is the earliest possible.
I have a similar play SPTL
https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/bonds-crash-in-long-term-treasuries-is-now-bonafide-epic-meltdown/ The SPDR Portfolio Long-Term Treasury ETF (SPTL), which owns U.S. government debt maturing in at least 10 years, plunged more than 49% in price from its high in March 2020. Yikes.
I am buying SPTL right now. I just know that bonds will be back one day. I'm willing to endure some pain, but when it pays off; hopefully i will make it.
What long duration government bond ETF would you guys recommend ? I'm currently stuck between TLT , EDV, SPTL and VGLT. Other recommendations welcomed too
I have been betting against the prices of the long-term government bond market. I have puts on TLT, IEF, and SPTL. I bought them last week and have already sold twice. I am up 50% since Friday. I have a call on TMV, which is the 3x Bear Treasury ETF. Someone poke holes in my logic.
If you are looking for safer plays to make a small amount of money you can sell OTM puts, but that still has a skewed risk reward ratio as you have a lot of downside exposure if the underlying tanks. There are also traditional very low risk investments such as BND, SPTL, SPTS, etc. but those are fixed income funds and if you aren't holding them long enough to get the dividends then you are really just parking cash in a fund that makes small moves based on interest rates, and at the moment that also doesn't have much room to move in your favor and plenty of room to move against you. Your best bet is investing in solid companies that you believe will continue to be profitable, like MSFT or AAPL, or maybe just holding a diversified ETF like VTI or SPLG.