UAE

defordj

I think you're right about Mojtaba being dead. But I think you're wrong about Iran wanting to let things cool down -- we have killed their entire leadership structure and all of the potential candidates to replace them. There is no "Iran" acting as a unified entity that can be negotiated with. There's just cells of the IRGC acting independently all over the country, arbitrarily firing their weapons at us, Israel, Beirut, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, etc. They can't be told to stand down, because as soon as they get on comms Israel finds them and kills them. There's no Iranian leadership left to give up, even if they wanted to, and the IRGC wouldn't listen to them even if they did.

ub3rm3nsch

Between Saudi and UAE rerouting, SPR releases, and so-called floating reserves (including the unsanctioned Russian and Iranian floating reserves), the shortfall has been closer to 11MBD. That is where my number comes from. See: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-iran-war-hormuz-closure-oil-shock/

Senior_Green_3630

Iran will control the price of crude oil, screw the price up to US$200/barrel, increase their revenue, increase world inflation, disrupt the world economy, cause a recession, control the Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, UAE and win the war. Thanks DJT.

Consistent_Panda5891

I heard they are all dead lol. So pathetic weak regime. US doesn't even need to take it by land, Japan & UAE will do if strait is not opened in few months. Who needs the oil will take it, simple as that

Bornagain4karma

It would mark the end of US as the global superpower. If it can't protect Saudi, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait then no one will trust them anywhere in the world. So Japan, South Korea and Europe will look for friends elsewhere. This also means that $ is dead. And the world will no longer give special treatment to US companies.

FullCopy

The UAE and their neighbors will now be buying a lot of NVDA chips for their data centers. I’m sure the plans for the year are intact.

_badwithcomputer

If a waterway is the only passage available to a country further into that waterway to have access to the open ocean then that passage by default is treated as international waters. Kuwait, Iraq and UAE all need the strait to get access to the ocean so zero chance Iran can create a toll or blockade there.

tachyonvelocity

Ok serious answer. The current status quo without military escalation from Houthis and Iran blowing up GCC infrastructure is priced in by $100 oil. This is because S.A./UAE bypass, Iranian and selected ships, Iraq able to export 1 mbd, SPR and all other production capacity leaves out 8% oil supply.  Since Price Elasticity of Demand for oil is around -0.1, the change in price for crude is thus 80%. From prewar levels of $55, this means over $100 oil means markets expect a long term supply disruption already.  What will be bearish is increased military escalation leading to the Houthis attempting to disrupt Red Sea, or Iran actually damaging infrastructure. If the US cannot make a deal, a deal being the best scenario, it might unilaterally leave the war, that’s the second best scenario because it eliminates military escalation leading to more supply disruption. 

BullfrogLevel2087

Ermm guys so you know that pipeline that is going to pump UAE oil away from the strait to Fujairah, the pumping stations have an issue: https://preview.redd.it/10w974p53esg1.jpeg?width=746&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=50dbf564cf6a0f4bc47df1b0a162438e50f570ec

Sturdily5092

The comment here tell me that most of you don't know how things work in the real world. First, I don't support this prick or what he's doing But he's not too far off base in this post. Only about 20% of the world's oil supply travels through the Strait of Hormuz so it's for like Iran is playing a child hold on all the oil supply in the world. Each country could try to negotiate safe passage with Iran but they will essentially be extorted for that oil from neighboring countries like Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, etc paying higher prices for the privilege of passing through. If those countries are fighting the Hezbollah or the Houthis, Iran will keep them from getting oil for that too. They will be at Iran's mercy for anything they do. Now as far as getting the oil from the US, yes the US is now one of the top producers of oil and gas in the world, not that it has the biggest proven reserves or the biggest refining capacity. Because Venezuela has been limping along for years under producing because of corruption and sanctions, same for Russia. OPEC countries lead by Saudi Arabia control about 40% of the world oil supply have also purposely kept production low to raise prices. Now because of capitalism, all oil produced everywhere is sold in the global market and unless an oil producing country has export limits their citizens are paying market prices for their gasoline. That's why even though we produce so much oil and refined fuel like gasoline and diesel your local gas station is competing with international buyers for that fuel. The US doesn't have the capacity to produce all the refined fuel we need so we must import it from other countries like Mexico. This also by design, there's a reason the US hasn't built a regiment in in the last 45 yrs... because oil companies profit from the artificial shortages they create.

x7_omega

All UAE is one big short for the following reason. Unlike Qatar and Oman, which want to stay out of this war, Saudi, UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait want to win - USA invasion and the rest of it. That makes them combatants, unlike Qatar and Oman which are victims or hostages of this war. Combatants get fired upon, and at the level that Iran is getting fired upon, UAE will physically not survive this war - in such a course of events, there will be no UAE left, just sand-covered ruins and lambos. That means a total loss of NPV, until whoever that might be recolonises the rolling dunes in the future.

Charming-Burp203

UAE stock markets have taken a heavy hit, losing roughly $120 billion in value since the escalation of the Iran conflict on February 28. Major indexes in Dubai and Abu Dhabi dropped sharply as investor confidence weakened and regional uncertainty grew. While Gulf markets showed mixed performance, travel disruptions and declining tourism have added pressure to the UAE economy. Analysts say the sell-off reflects short-term sentiment rather than structural weakness, with expectations of a rebound once geopolitical tensions ease and stability returns to global markets.

CaptainCheckmate

They won't do that because then Iran will obliterate all the oil in Saudi, UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Iraq and the world economy will collapse.

BusinessPrimary8024

Considering the UAE’s proximity to Iran. Their navy will be hit should they attempt to use their navy against Iran

eastbay77

Had to double check. "While other Gulf states (like Saudi Arabia and UAE) rely on desalination for 70-90% of their drinking water, Iran’s reliance is much lower" Glad to know that this president makes up stuff as he goes along.

WordsHappenedHere

The gulf states all hate Iran over there, primarily for religious reasons. The Shia state (Iran) is a direct threat to all of them. It’s a very old blood feud. Which is why Trump is so stupid. He’s gotten us involved in really a thousand year old blood fued. They all hate each other. Also despite what TikTok says, Iran is in shambles. People can’t even buy milk or bread there. Their currency is trash. And all these bombings have crippled their navy, Air Force, etc. What they have left is basically drones and missiles that allow them to terrorize gulf states or other commercial interests which have no defenses. If they keep it up long enough, eventually all those gulf states will team up against Iran. Even those islands over there that Iran is using to launch drones mostly belonged to UAE and other gulf states. They been feuding for years over them

Electrical_Ad_828

fuel prices in the UAE shot up by 70%. Having read Bloomberg about the oil/gas price situation, things will get very interesting in the next two weeks if the Strait remains closed. I plan to close my EONR position (with small profit) and take a chance on RBNE (it seems it has a better chance of hiking up if prices go to the roof sometime in mid/late April)

PurpleReign123

Doubt Arab countries will agree to pay war reparations to Iran. Here’s how we can have a ceasefire and everlasting peace: - Congress approves Trump’s request for $200b to fund the war - Trump uses this $200b as war reparations for all affected countries including Iran, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi, Iraq, Qatar, Israel etc - Iran agrees to let ships navigate Hormuz without any threat - in return for all these, in good faith, Iran invests $1b in Potus’ memecoin. - no other requirements for anyone else and we have a happy ending for everyone Works?

Psilonemo

I mean, Saudis and UAE are hawkish and want the US to continue the war. They want America to take tremendous risks and expenses. They might as well help foot the bill if they will insist on continue American warfare.

GetOutOfTheWhey

never said they were I am talking about GCC countries. Saudi Arabia + dictatorship + no money + no water = fucked UAE + dictatorship + no money + no water = fucked Qatar + dictatorship + no money + no water = fucked

Far_Addition1210

UAE increases fuel prices by 25% from April

Embarrassed-Sky6890

Iranian missiles have just targeted the UAE with a barrage, missiles have hit Jebel Ali and smoke is rising.

Far_Addition1210

Iranian missiles have just targeted the UAE with a barrage, missiles have hit Jebel Ali and smoke is rising.

Marcus_Aurelius71

Perhaps MBS, but the other Arab leaders of Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE are not aligned with war and would rather make money. War prevents money from being made. Qatar and the UAE made significant investments with the US, but in the end, failed to adequately protect the GCC.

jrex035

The difference is that Suez is a canal that was built to link two bodies of water (where no passage previously existed) just like Panama, which is governed by different rules than bodies of water. Iran doesn't even fully control the Strait, most of it isn't in their territorial waters, it controls the Strait by attacking neutral ships that try to pass through the waterway *in the middle of a war.* The war needs to continue for the toll system to work, otherwise ships can simply stay in UAE waters and skirt the Iranian tolls. I have little doubt the market wants to rip, it already has repeatedly on the flimsiest of pretenses. It's not gonna last, especially when it becomes clear that this isn't a solution and doesn't resolve the energy crisis problem.

smart_doge

UAE is like that boy who watches his crush Strait of Hormuz get railed openly in front of him by her bf Eyeran.

DesticularDorsion

The status quo is smoldering ruins. Bahrain and UAE will be failed states by EOY. 

RobotPimpLibertyBell

In Civ 5 I would just load everything up in UAE across the strait. Hi fellas! Just hanging out.

McKoijion

Iran just solo’d the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Oman, and the entire world.

Brief_Night_9239

Netanyahu has been on Iran getting nukes for 30 years. Israel has correctly predicted Iran is the strongest enemy in Middle East. Other such as Saudi, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait are Sunni countries. Iran is Shia. and America? Donald Trump. He is the sole reason America got involved. Previous presidents are smart.

Ok_Persimmon9849

Bro this is gonna be crazy but did you know that we are not the only country in the world? Even if congress hasn't approved this and made it an official war, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar are all pissed now too. Iran bombed like a dozen of its neighbors besides Israel, a lot of countries will be very mad if we leave them high and dry and they certainly won't just be forgetting the fight anytime soon.

hfbvm2

UAE is storing 60 days of drinking water, in checks not, desalination plants storage

Put_Er_There_Sport

Not when they go after critical infrastructure, or the UAE investments from over the last year.

sailortyx56

Kuwait Petroleum Corporation: The giant Kuwaiti crude oil tanker (Al-Salmi) was subjected to a direct Iranian targeting while present in the (Mukhtaf) area at Dubai Port in the UAE The tanker was fully loaded at the time of the incident, and the attack resulted in material damage to the ship's hull and a fire breaking out on board, with a possibility of an oil spill in the surrounding waters

MaleCowShitDetector

Irans ability to fire missiles is severely degraded, their speed boats used for collecting tolls are now being targetted, most of their military leadership is dead, they are actively trying to create massive propaganda for internal consumption so that they can recruit 12 year olds for the war effort (but mostly for propaganda). IDF has run out of high value targets, they are now primarily targetting economic targets. Most of Iran is without power and anti-tank mines were dropped in coastal cities implying that there's preparation for a ground op. Over 50 cargo planes have been landing in the ME region the past week. Massive bombing campaigns were ongoing. What Taco is talking about is a possibility. It's been reported that there's an internal split i.e. hardliners vs the rest. Hardliners being the remaining IRGC commanders. As of now Iran is mostly trying to target (with houthis) the Dimona nuclear installation in Israel. They obviously failed miserably but released a shit ton of propaganda videos making peope believe they did. My guesstimates are for 2 more weeks of intense bombing and fighting until Iran wont be able to shoot anything. As for militias it's complicated. The Kurds are caught in a crossfire. On one hand you have the retarded Erdogan who needs to use Jews as a scapegoat. His economy was dependent on Iran, but if he hates something its the idea of a Kurdistan. Kurds would have to fight three armies because of that (Iraq, Iran, Turkey). Then you have the Azeris, who did do a little bit of bombing here and there but nothing came of it. Most likely solved diplomaticaly. Gulf states see this as a one of a kind opportunity to destroy Iran. Saudis benefit in the short term but they might still twist Trumps balls. UAE is on the same boat. Kuwait started speaking positively about Israel marking a drastic shift in foreign policy. Realistically Iran has no way of defending Kharg Island. What they might do and I have it on my bingo card is detonating all the stored/processed oil. Keep in mind that their only weapon is economical terrorism right now. Chances of uprising are pessimistic. Most intelligence agencies believe that there's not much to do there, without internet connection its hard to coordinate with the IDF who has been bombing IRGC checkpoints. That's about it. Short term disruption in oil prices is likely, but after - few more weeks of fighting you'll be looking at 100 years of oil price stability. Last note: Most restrictions in Israel are easing up. Exception being that parking in blue zones is still free (was supposed to end yesterday). Kindergardens are as fsr as I'm aware of opening hinting that not much missiles are expected. Most rockets now fly from the north (hezbollah)

Exact_Entrepreneur66

JUST IN: UAE’s Sharjah authorities report drone strike hits Thuraya Telecom building; no casualties reported.

Beneficial-Age-9293

We just need to make a slip and slide from UAE to Oman, you're welcome 🥭.

MoaiTrist

I agree with most of your points. except Iran being the catalyst. This has been in play since Nov of last year (when I bought most of my leap puts). Private Credit sub prime lending, AI irrational exuberance, Crypto leverage (financial cancer), housing and commercial real estate badly overpriced, et al. These have all been known issues that are finally becoming more broadly known. As for Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, even if the US were to pull out tomorrow, there is no way all of the other countries will allow the status quo. China, UAE, Saudi Arabia, India, and all the other countries in the area are much more impacted by this than the US. As Charlie would say, when the tide falls everyone can see who is swimming naked... or something like that.

jarkon-anderslammer

trump flies to saudi arabia last year, does the whole dog and pony show, comes back bragging about $600B in saudi investment and like $2T total from the gulf states. huge chunk of that was AI stuff. data centers, chips, the whole deal. nvidia, amd, oracle all got their piece. everyone clapping. then he turns around and starts bombing iran. the country right across the water from where all that money was supposed to go. iran fires back and literally hits AWS data centers in the UAE and bahrain. two out of three availability zones in the UAE are still messed up. amazon is telling clients to move their data out of the region. brent crude is at $116 because the strait of hormuz is shut down which also jacks up the cost of running every data center in the country since most of them run on natural gas. so now you got $2T in gulf AI pledges that might never fully show up, the infrastructure companies that were supposed to benefit are getting hammered by energy costs, and the region where they were building out is literally getting bombed. bloomberg is saying the war could split the AI trade in half where the hyperscalers (amzn, goog, msft) eat it on infrastructure costs while the software side (openai, anthropic) rides it out.

Consistent_Panda5891

TACO. Rubio deadline ends next week. Did you not see yesterday Qatar begging to stop war? Iran will win politically, controlling strait and nothing new to see here. If Iran doesn't open strait later after US retreat then yes the hell will go into there with UAE and Japan helping to open it, because they have big oil reserves they don't need to act for now

ewebbski

The AI trade will be stronger once the Middle East is stabilized. There was no way to continue investing billions in UAE and Saudi Arabia without controlling Iran. You can’t build a $100B facility within missile range of the Islamic Regime

grahamsz

Also i think we haven't considered that a lot of AI capacity is (or maybe is planned to be in the gulf states). UAE is a large OpenAI investor and UAE has cheap energy and liberal planning rules - surely in the AI circlejerk that means that UAE is hosting OpenAI

jarkon-anderslammer

so let me get this straight. trump flies to saudi arabia last year, does the whole dog and pony show, comes back bragging about $600B in saudi investment and like $2T total from the gulf states. huge chunk of that was AI stuff. data centers, chips, the whole deal. nvidia, amd, oracle all got their piece. everyone clapping. then he turns around and starts bombing iran. the country right across the water from where all that money was supposed to go. iran fires back and literally hits AWS data centers in the UAE and bahrain. two out of three availability zones in the UAE are still messed up. amazon is telling clients to move their data out of the region. brent crude is at $116 because the strait of hormuz is shut down which also jacks up the cost of running every data center in the country since most of them run on natural gas. so now you got $2T in gulf AI pledges that might never fully show up, the infrastructure companies that were supposed to benefit are getting hammered by energy costs, and the region where they were building out is literally getting bombed. bloomberg is saying the war could split the AI trade in half where the hyperscalers (amzn, goog, msft) eat it on infrastructure costs while the software side (openai, anthropic) rides it out. meanwhile oil and defense stocks are ripping. palantir up 12% since the war started. gas at $3.99 national average. the guy who sold everyone on these investments started a war that is actively destroying them. you cannot make this up.

jarkon-anderslammer

so let me get this straight. trump flies to saudi arabia last year, does the whole dog and pony show, comes back bragging about $600B in saudi investment and like $2T total from the gulf states. huge chunk of that was AI stuff. data centers, chips, the whole deal. nvidia, amd, oracle all got their piece. everyone clapping. then he turns around and starts bombing iran. the country right across the water from where all that money was supposed to go. iran fires back and literally hits AWS data centers in the UAE and bahrain. two out of three availability zones in the UAE are still messed up. amazon is telling clients to move their data out of the region. brent crude is at $116 because the strait of hormuz is shut down which also jacks up the cost of running every data center in the country since most of them run on natural gas. so now you got $2T in gulf AI pledges that might never fully show up, the infrastructure companies that were supposed to benefit are getting hammered by energy costs, and the region where they were building out is literally getting bombed. bloomberg is saying the war could split the AI trade in half where the hyperscalers (amzn, goog, msft) eat it on infrastructure costs while the software side (openai, anthropic) rides it out. meanwhile oil and defense stocks are ripping. palantir up 12% since the war started. gas at $3.99 national average. the guy who sold everyone on these investments started a war that is actively destroying them.

ZombieDracula

Iranian forces struck the Habshan-Fujairah oil pipeline, a key UAE route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting alternative oil export paths amid escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict 15 mins ago

ZombieDracula

Iran just denied talks and took out the UAE pipeline that bypasses the strait

atape_1

My UAE calls are fucked, aren't they?

TracyM45

CIA put american boots on UAE solders to reclaim their islands

McKoijion

> China’s 15 hypersonic missiles can take out the US’s 10 aircraft carriers within minutes, Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth said last year. His concerns have resurfaced to the point where the US Congress recently expressed the need not to be left behind. https://euroweeklynews.com/2025/05/01/pentagon-chief-china-can-sink-all-aircraft-carriers-in-minutes/ The Houthis fired two missiles they claim are hypersonic at Israel a few days ago. Israel said one was intercepted but didn't say what happened to the other one. Iran said they hit an aircraft carrier with their own hypersonic missile. The US denied it, but both the Gerald Ford and Abraham Lincoln have left the region. This matters because either they developed those missiles themselves or China designed them. It's starting to seem possible that China has a more powerful and technologically advanced military than the US at this point, and that they've supplied Iran and the Houthis with some of the most powerful weapons specifically so they can choke the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb. If that's the case, they have the leverage to force the US to leave their bases and force the world to drop the petrodollar for the petroyuan. That means China could realistically emerge from these proxy wars (Iran vs. US/Israel/Saudi Arabia/UAE and Russia vs. Ukraine/Europe) as the world's global hegemon.

Valuable-Term9559

Iranians can hit ships in the SOH from anywhere in the Country and all it takes us a $20k drone of which they have thousands. You can’t control the Strait unless you completely obliterate Iran, or come to some diplomatic solution. But now Israel AND most of Iran’s surrounding States allied to us, like SA, UAE, Qatar and more, want Iran gone. And there’s a real argument that this might be the time and the only time. Next time they might have a bomb—then they TRULY hold all the cards.

Ill_Ground_1572

Power and water plants got hit in Kuwait...which is a serious escalation (after Iran's power got hit). Go onto the UAE sub and do some reading. They're hearing explosions like every 5 minutes in various places. Far from chill....

ShadyPineapple

The UAE doesn’t have any nukes

CollectionReady7896

UAE does not have nukes lol

Forward_Departure178

if that happens, guarantee the UAE nukes Iran back to the middle ages

IndependentTrouble62

Why would they not? The regime has nothing to lose. Its MAD theory. I cant win but I can make sure you lose to. Also even if it wanted to avoid oil is could hit desalination plants in the gulf. 90% of the water to dubai comes from one desal plant. The UAE in its own war games says Iran hitti g the plant leaves Dubai in critical water shortage i.e no potable water in one week. The rest of the gulf states have the same problems. Doing that would create a massive humanitarian crisis making syria look like a picnic. There is a reason every US admin from the 1970s on has wanted to deal with Iran but has chosen not to. The pain is too great.

SpaceCatVII

"Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) said in a statement that two employees were injured in the attack on its facility, while the UAE’s Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) said one of its sites in Abu Dhabi suffered significant damage, and six people were injured." Long aluminium???

Bonhamsbass

UAE, Saudi and what's left of Israel get vaporized

Calle_Sin_Nombre

UAE doesn't have troops. They have hired mercenaries. I don't think anyone is willing to risk themselves for this.

Ok_Cry7572

70 British nationals face up to 10 years in UAE prison for filming Iranian drone and missile attacks, Daily Mail reports.

Soffatjockis

Every single one who have been loyal and sucking up to the mango have been absolutely fucked in the ass by him. Qatar Saudi UAE All the techbros FIFA etc etc The only ones who haven't been totally screwed are Bibi and Putin, and they are fucking the mango.

smart_doge

Why can’t they use helium they need to float the ships over UAE/Oman? Checkmate Iran

Kwikstep

Get ready for things to get wilder. The US together with the UAE are about to seize Abu Musa Island at the entrance to the strait.

nsfwnsfwnsfw33333

I checked the map today, you dont even have to pass it through Saudi. the UAE can just transport it from one end of the strait to the other on land, the distance is fairly short as well, load it up on the other side on a diff ship and ggwp. Not sure if there's ports there though.

No_Assistance5652

Biggest power plant in iran produces like 2500 MW. Biggest powerplants in UAE produces like 8500 MW and 5500 MW and doubles as a desalination plants. Who has a glass house i wonder🤔

InvestAISavvy

You're not far off — I think the actual number is something like 55% of billion-dollar US startups have at least one immigrant founder. It's not just labor supply, it's the top 0.1% of global talent self-selecting into the US economy. That's what makes restrictive immigration policy so risky from a markets perspective. Canada, the UK, UAE are all actively trying to capture that talent flow. You lose that edge and the innovation premium the US commands starts eroding pretty quickly.

Independent-Tree-985

> "Boobs on the ground" was a 2014 sexist comment made by former Fox News host Eric Bolling regarding a female UAE fighter pilot, which he later apologized for. The phrase was a disparaging play on the military term "boots on the ground". >> Context: The comment was made about Major Mariam al-Mansouri, who led airstrikes against ISIS, and was widely criticized by veterans and military personnel.

LocoGyopo

I'm curious where you are getting your information as to blame allocation for the Strait closure. My friend who works in the various Gulf States (mostly the UAE) told me that even most Arabs he knows realize that America is destroying their countries/economies via Iran on behalf of Israel and MBS. I've honestly wondered how soon it would be before countries start agreeing to supply Iran with missiles and launchers (to be used only against Israel) in exchange for safe passage through the Strait and to avoid being targets.

Interesting-Gas2572

Technically, building over-ground pipes is pretty easy. But the risk of them getting destroyed in revenge is big. In the UAE, it could be done in 2 weeks. However, about 10 pipes would be needed to maintain the flow of the hormuz capacity (don't have source, but read a post about it)

tdoger

I sold some of my stragglers for a loss, to offset some of my gains. And sold most of my consumer retail. Which I’ve been holding for 5+ years so it was still a pretty solid profit. But I didn’t like the short term outlook if there is excessive inflation from rising fuel costs. And then I put all of the proceeds of that into more tech stock (somewhat counterintuitive because it will be massively affected by rising fuel costs as well, but this was more of a long-term play) And then I put a bunch of Chevron stock right as a war happened, as well as UAE. As that ETF was on a tear before the war. I’m up about 12 or 13% on Chevron. I’ll probably be selling that pretty soon, and putting it into either VOO or QQQ.

stockjocky

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has several data centers under construction and an Amazon Data center was struck by a missile Mar 2nd

nostradumba55

Yes but that 20% all depends on how Iran reacts to the USA taking Kharg island, which kills their economy. They obviously can't hold the strait up for a long period of time, and even if they did, countries besides the USA would make a deal with them so they could pass. The only real threat is if Iran decides/has the capability to cripple the oil infrastructure of it's neighbors like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Kwikstep

Now we have houthis threatening to stop traffic heading to the Mediterranean and the UAE and Bahrain openly threatening to join the conflict. Maybe Pakistan will be able to help strike a peace deal, otherwise things are about to hit the fan. But I still believe we will be higher one year from now in spite of all of this.

RichStaff1768

I believe U.S. boots will be on the ground Sunday . With Yemen and Houthi’s joining Iran , this is going to get very complicated for everyone. Kuwait , and UAE will be forced into full engagement. Oil at this point has nowhere but up to go at this point . I hope for mankind’s sake that no desalination plants will be hit , at that point oil will be the least of the problems. My (only educated guess from past wars) is this will not bode well for markets.

NotObviouslyARobot

Satellites detected fires on Kharg Island, and some fires near Das Island (UAE, crude & LNG hub). Gonna be an interesting monday

Shot-Welcome-2822

Buls really taking that 20 tanker bait. Only Iranian oil is going out. Breakdown of pre war oil exports through strait: SA - 37.2% Iraq - 22.8% UAE - 12.9% Iran - 10.6% Kuwait - 10.1% Qatar/Bahrain - 6.4%

Mikeynphoto2009

Two problems stacking, not one. **Hormuz:** ~21 million bbl/day cannot leave the Gulf by sea. Pipeline bypass (Saudi East-West + UAE ADCOP) maxes out at ~6-7 million bbl/day. That is a 10+ million bbl/day gap with no short-term fix. Strategic reserves buy weeks. **Bab al-Mandeb (Houthis):** If that closes, Suez is effectively shut. Every vessel reroutes around the Cape. Round trips go from ~50 days to ~80. Same ships, fewer rotations, 30-35% less effective fleet capacity. Freight rates tripled when Maersk rerouted during the 2024 Houthi campaign. The first one removes supply. The second one slows what does get out. Both at once is why the schedule cuts stretch to months, not weeks.

Garbage-Disposal-938

I don't know the routes taken by all of the thousands of cruise missiles and drones that have been fired over the last 4 weeks, by both sides. But haven't some of the Iranian ones gone right over the Persian Gulf already? Don't they continue to do that when they hit targets in UAE or Saudi Arabia? Not sure.

Smile-Nod

They should just dig a canal through the UAE and Oman. Problem solved.

Maximum-Cash7103

E3G sentry destroyed or heavily damaged by Iran strike in UAE according to reports.

modder9

UAE ADCOP also exists and both have been operating at capacity since this whole special military operation began. They make no significant difference.

modder9

UAE ADCOP also has been running at its terrible capacity of 1.5m bpd.

modder9

Saudi Petrolone has been operating at max capacity for weeks. This isn’t news. There is also ADCOP to UAE operating at max capacity. Both have dogshit throughout. 7 million bpd for Petroline and 1.5 million bpd for ADCOP

siroco14

I think your a little over the top with the doomer stuff and skipping over some significant counterweights. I'm not here to say this is fine. It's not fine. But the catastrophic scenario requires a lot of things to go wrong simultaneously, and several of them are already going the other direction. **Iran's ability to hold Hormuz is degrading fast.** The US has destroyed over 130 Iranian naval vessels, 44 minelayers, and hit underground missile silos along the coast with GBU-72 penetrator munitions. Israel just killed Alireza Tangsiri, the naval commander who was personally overseeing the blockade. Iran has already pivoted from "the strait is completely closed" to operating a tollbooth system letting select ships through for a fee. That's not the posture of a regime with confident military control. That's a regime monetizing leverage it knows is slipping. **Traffic is already trickling back.** Lloyd's List tracked 142 transits through Hormuz between March 1 and 25. The first westbound transit since the war started happened on March 20. Is that normal? Absolutely not. But "effectively closed" and "actually closed" are meaningfully different things, and the trend line is moving in the right direction. **Bypass infrastructure is online and moving real barrels.** Saudi Arabia is routing crude through the East West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea. The UAE is pushing oil through the Abu Dhabi pipeline to Fujairah on the Arabian Sea. Iraq has the Kirkuk Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey. Combined that's roughly 9 million bpd of capacity. It doesn't replace 20 million, but it's not nothing. It's actually a huge portion of the net disruption. **The price action tells a more nuanced story than "crash."** Brent peaked at $126 and has pulled back to the $103 to $112 range. WTI just touched $100. Goldman is estimating a $14 to $18 per barrel geopolitical risk premium baked in. That means the market is pricing this as a disruption, not an apocalypse. If we were truly headed into the worst Depression of our lifetimes, oil would be running away to $200 plus and nobody would be selling. Instead, we're seeing volatility with some price discovery. **The US is not 1970s America.** We produce roughly 13 million bpd domestically. We are a net exporter of petroleum products. The pain from Hormuz lands hardest on Asia, specifically South Korea, Japan, India, Thailand. Those are real problems for global GDP, but the notion that Americans are about to face starvation because of a Hormuz closure fundamentally misreads where our supply comes from. **The Dallas Fed's own modeling** shows that even a full quarter of closure would lower global GDP growth by 2.9 percentage points in Q2 but only 0.2 points on the full year if it resolves in Q3. That's a hit, not a depression. Even a two quarter closure only shaves 0.3 points off the year. You need a three quarter or longer sustained closure to get into truly severe territory, and 22 nations just signed a joint statement committing to reopen the strait. **On the diplomatic side,** Trump just extended the deadline to April 6 and described talks as going "very well." Iran let 10 tankers through this week as a gesture. Iran's foreign minister is doing the "we are not negotiating with the enemy" theater while Iran is simultaneously responding to a 15 point US proposal through mediators. That looks a lot more like "working toward an off ramp" than "entrenching for six months of blockade." I agree with OP that the next few weeks will be volatile. I agree energy prices will stay elevated. But "worst Depression of our lifetimes" requires sustained closure through May and beyond, and the military, diplomatic, and logistical trends are all pointing toward partial restoration well before that. OP's "best case" scenario where Hormuz fully opens in 1 to 2 weeks is not the only alternative to catastrophe. There's a wide middle ground where the strait partially reopens under escort, bypass pipelines carry the marginal barrels, strategic reserves bridge the gap, and we end up with an ugly but manageable few quarters of higher energy costs and slower growth. Could I be wrong? Sure. But the bear case requires you to ignore a 22 nation coalition, a degraded Iranian navy, active bypass pipelines, 400 million barrels of strategic reserve releases, and a US economy that produces more oil than any country on earth.

No_Current3675

How many times do you think the retard has asked whether we can just nuke UAE to create a new strait?

iratezero

Saw someone unironically post this on LinkedIn, drawing a canal through the UAE that circumvents the strait not realizing it's all mountains and it would still be within missile/drone range. Comments were hysterical.

Gom_KBull

*"There is no way this will end up being ww3."* **Military Involvement** * *USA* * *Israel* * *Houthis* * *Iran* * *UAE* * *Saudi Arabia* * *Kuwait* * *Qatar* * *Bahrain* * *Lebanon* **Military, Intelligence and Logistical support** * *UK* * *Russia* * *China* **Collateral nations** * *Cyprus* * *Azerbaijan* * *Jordan* * *Iraq* * *Oman* **Rhetorical involvement** * *Ukraine* * *Finland* * *NATO + EU + UN* * *Romania* * *Poland* * *Spain* * *Venezuela (lol)* * *India (on fence tilting pro Israel/usa)* # OK BRO

staythewaters

Turkey, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are getting together in Islamabad to discuss de-escalation. Neither Iran or US are involved, as currently reported.

WaveWest2009

UAE, a Muslim country joining force with Israel and US to attack Iran, a Muslim country... never expected it

ps4med

UAE makes a lot of noise. I’m willing to go to the gym today and workout… will update later

mindtwistingdonut

You are very on points but I think it’s fair to add that there are a high possibility that US and Israel can take down more of Iranian head men in the next few days-weeks like they did with Hanas and Venezuela. Granted this is a much larger war but Iran has also been hitting other Gulf countries which has given UAE and Europe more motivation to step in and help. Yes the Yemen is helping Iran but how much men power and weapons do they have?

VehiculeUtilitaire

That does't make any sense, why not UAE or Oman coasts ? They're literally part of the strait and are allies... How would they even round trip between Kharg and Hormuz safely? It takes 20 hours per round trip and they'd be sitting ducks the whole way How would Kharg be a base? It literally is in enemy territory, there will be 0 resupply and will be attacked 24/7

ballsonreddit

No. We aren’t gonna bottom if things escalate Saudi and UAE considering to join the party

Historical_Bother274

Mango must feel so cucked that Zelensky is now being flown in to help UAE and Saudi because he cant

evoc2911

All the mighty UAE military apparatus?? The one that looses people and aircraft each time they take off for simple training operations?

That-Whereas3367

Iran the bombs the UAE desalination plants. A week later the UAE runs out of potable water and ceases to exist.

iratezero

They get universal health care in the EU and they have great roads in Germany and Italy where driving is a pleasure so you can argue that by and large the extra tax on gas is being put to better use there. In the UAE they pay less than $1 a gallon for 103-107 octane, plus they get universal health care and have zero income tax and the roads are also well maintained. Doesn't apply to the economy in America.

aa73gc

Iran bombing Bahrain and UAE again. Good thing they took out all of their launchers lol

biggronklus

All of the countries you have mentioned have been targeted and impacted. Specifically Qatar, UAE, and Bahrain have been hit the hardest. Believe whatever you want to believe I guess dude I’m not gonna spoon feed you anymore. Maybe google what India and Japan are doing with their oil reserves in response to this

UrBoySergio

I appreciate your insight, I just couldn’t disagree more with your viewpoints. There are A LOT of investors in the Middle East (UAE, Saudis, etc) who are going to be selling assets (if they haven’t started already) to raise cash to fight the war that Mango and Kegsbreath just started on their doorstep. The Saudi sovereign wealth fund is just one example of this, imagine all of the Middle East divesting at the same time. The doors are only so large, and everyone is running for the exits before money gets locked up for good and withdrawals are blocked. These are major AI investors/players who were absolutely making big investments in the AI space and I guarantee you that AI is now the last thing on their minds—The primary being the purchase of more Patriot missiles and counter drone defenses. The strait of Hormuz is STILL closed one month later, and it clearly isn’t opening anytime soon with 🥭 at the helm. Helium isn’t reaching the chipmakers, once they’re out of supply, we’re back to the chip crunch that we witnessed during COVID. We have many southeast Asian countries and airlines within it already declaring national emergencies due to fuel shortages. We are watching the worlds supply chains fall apart in real time. There’s so much more to this that I haven’t even mentioned, such as Ukraine knocking out 40% of Russias oil output. But yeah, I’m sure everything will be fine! Buy the dip homie!

InclinationCompass

can you clarify exactly which countries’ exports are being impacted? Because the vast majority of oil actually blocked from the Strait of Hormuz comes from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar. Also, if there were truly massive, widespread damage to infrastructure right now, the stock market would be crashing hard right now, not single digits.