UAE

International_Bee653

UAE leaving opec means one extra vlcc tanker a day's worth of oil. Strait of Hormuz has 8 a day as opposed to 120

4sKompany

UAE wants it up so they make more 💰

kudles

UAE leaving OPEC ... iran gushing to sell its shit. something happen soon, no?

kudles

UAE leaving OPEC ... iran gushing to sell its shit. something happen soon, no?

FarrisAT

All of those numbers are incorrect by the way. How do I know? Well the UAE and Saudi Arabia literally report their export numbers. Yanbu is 4mbpd and Fujairah is 1.5mbpd. Neither is exporting the total amount either since some of the pipeline flow is to domestic refineries.

Good_Application6245

Saudi princes give jet to mango because relationship. UAE leaves OPEC. We control venezuela oil reserves. Iran can’t really control their supply as well now. Is there something deeper going on with the oil market that big money already knows about?

RD_006

On daily scale, nothing really. But Dubai's decision to leave OPEC sent futures into volatility. Last time checked WTI was 117 and Brent 109. Can u blame em? UAE basically opened doors to everyone willing to do business. All they wanted stability and security in return. And then comes the cheetos.

Excellent-Koala3873

Iran and UAE say fuck your calls. Oil ain’t going down anytime soon and there will be a liquidity crunch.

Vulthen1

So I was told UAE leaving OPEC would allow them to increase their oil production, increase supply in the market and drive prices down. What is happening then?

Inevitable_Pilot1353

So all oil stocks pause yesterday (april28th) at resistance as “UAE leaving OPEC” headline gets shoved out. Retail flushes itself out, and oil grinds higher today. Lmao. They really do print the headlines to make sense of the charts not the other way around. I guess I’m a wimp for not putting my money where my mouth is… of course big boys squeeze it up today, they’ll probably cash it out this week too

rbraalih

Because UAE and Saudi Arabia definitely same place

Typical-Pollution459

About 20% of global oil used to transit through the Strait of Hormuz before the Iran war started. That's roughly 20 million barrels of oil a day. Saudi Arabia was exporting about 7.5 million barrels a day, and now is still able to ship out 5 million barrels a day through Jeddah on the Red Sea. Then, the UAE used to export about 3.8 million barrels per day and is now exporting about 2 million barrels per day through Fujairah, located past the Strait of Hormuz. Venezuelan oil is back on the market, amounting to about 1 million barrels a day. Other producers like the US, Russia, Guyana, Brazil, Canada, etc., stepped up to their maximums. Still leaving about a 10 million barrel shortage. Each country's strategic reserves fill in that gap at the moment. But how long that will last is not clear. At least not a panic moment on the crude oil front. The global natural gas supply is misaligned. Qatar used to supply 20% of the global supply, and all of it is stranded. There are a couple of new facilities coming online in Canada and the US, but not enough to fill in the hole left by the blockade. Poor countries are being priced out of gas and rich countries are still able to afford the prices in spot market. Poor countries don't have enough sway on financial markets anyway. And so, probably not a panic moment on this front. Then there is Helium, Aluminum, gas-dependent fertilizers, etc., secondary commodities affected by the war. So far, not in a panic moment, but not sure about the future over the next quarter or two.

Slow-Information-847

A lot of retails probably entered into shorting oil after UAE announcement, now it appears a squeeze is ongoing.

stickman07738

For me, the most significant news is the UAE leaving OPEC. Mid-east nations will not over produce and compete - Saudis should be low cost producers and will drive this segments. Typical race to bottom until others relent on over production. I suspect oil will be significantly lower and would stay away from the majors.

IndependentBoth2831

no UAE left OPEC

HimJomo

USO is where we will benefit from UAE leaving OPEC. Thats the relationship

GamermanRPGKing

UAE leaving OPEC might mean a surge in production, lowering prices in the short term but more instability long term, so probably a bit longer

amcrambler

From someone who buys gas to put in their car, UAE you go girl! Pump as much oil as you can!

Total_Wrongdoer_1535

He is just dooming for no reason. What, we don’t know what is going to turn out from UAE leaving OPEC? Yeah, it’s not gonna limit its production now every time the Saudi’s said so.

Franks2000inchTV

UAE thinks oil pricesnare going tonbe very high and want to sell while the selling is good.

WorkingHorror99

UAE leaving OPEC will lower oil prices 

BigSeth

I bought some 4/30 690 SPY puts at a fucking steal about midday after the random spike before UAE news hit. I hope that the meeting is a shitshow and I hope the earnings after market close is also a shitshow. Kick off the summer of the retarded gay bear

ExcellentAirPirate

It also could be the beginning of the end of the petro dollar. UAE wouldnt have up and left OPEC if they didn't have a financing system in order to sell that oil around the dollar. Looks like the BRICS new financing infrastructure is a lot farther along than the US economists were predicting back in Oct 25. This is probably the single biggest news story this year and I don't think many people realize just how huge this news it's.

sogladatwork

>The big thing is that the UAE absolutely does not make a move like this without us knowing, and approving. Who's the us in this sentence? Reddit?

Life-Goose-9380

The UAE has a pipeline which means some oil can be exported without going through Hormuz. Currently Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait are ffed at the moment.

Dire_Wolf45

With the UAE announcing their break eoth OPEC a day before daddy JPow lays down the law, the play is pretty obvious: Calls on hemorrhoid cream manufacturers.

Sufficient-Skill9530

This means the UAE expects mid to long term higher oil prices and they want to capture high prices independent of OPEC. 

teh_drewski

The UAE and Saudis are engaged in a geopolitical struggle but yeah, Saudi oil is just as cheap as UAE oil if not cheaper.  OPEC basically being an arm of Saudi diplomacy is one of the things the UAE has been pissed about for years

ma33a

There are no ships that hold 2B barrels. 2-~3M tops. Also you are confusing Saudi Arabia with the UAE, the UAEs pipeline doesn't go to the Red Sea, it goes to the Gulf of Oman.

BestKoreaEscapee

Got into oil on a whim and thought I was cooked after Hormuz was looking straight. Now UAE out of OPEC, no end in sight to 🥭’s crusade, JPow being a boss… printing, bro.

Rock_or_Rol

Just be thankful $100k wasn’t spent on trans Guatemalan prisoner reassignment surgeries. It’s only like $2 billion a day to strengthen Iran, bail out the UAE, run through critical stockpiles, generate a new generation of Iranian American haters, kill hundreds of children with explosives, lose a few fighter jets, replace khameany with khameany and close the straight of Hormuz. He’s for you, not the cringy queers!

blowurhousedown

If you lived long enough (or studied history), OPEC has been able to somewhat control the oil market due to their combined size. UAE is about 20% of that. This seriously weakens OPEC, and that’s a good thing. Unintended good result from a silly Iran battle.

ffsudjat

I just remember Nash equilbrium. Maybe when UAE leave and flood the market, OPEC will do the same else they do not profit.. unless they do duopoly.

Shot-Structure-1274

You need to back those claims up with actual production numbers and time dates. This isn't going to hurt Iran; this is going to help them. The US based coalition is falling apart; that's a huge problem for the US. Iran said if the US attacks again, UAE was on their Top 4 target list, my guess is they are now safe because the US couldn't provide protection and Iran might have made a deal with them. Post Covid the US got OPEC to cut 5 million BPD to save US producers, if OPEC falls apart that wouldn't happen again. This is a bad situation for Trump moving forward, he's losing at another area here.

physicsking

UAE, make side deal with Yemen, pump to Yemen port to load tankers, everyone profits except Iran. No need to cross strait. All oil flows through UAE. UAE becomes GOD rich

FloppyButtholeJelly

UAE releasing cheap oil 

FloppyButtholeJelly

UAE about to flood the market with cheap oil

Top-Channel-7989

More so UAE realized depending on Iran is bad for business, not oil

Carittz

The pipeline that bypasses the strait has been pumping at capacity since the war started, so there won't be any change until the war ends. Should be interesting what happens then though. Could lead to a faster drop in oil price than would have been expected. Depends on if the goal of the UAE is to pump as much as they can or if they have some other goal in mind.

Pain--In--The--Brain

It's also probably a factor that by some accounts MBS/KSA are pushing the war, and others are not so happy about it. Not making for great economic political alliances. That said, it's a potentially dangerous game for UAE. If the Hormuz/Iran situation suddenly reverses, Saudi will again have the upper hand in pricing power.

Moron-Whisperer

So UAE is about to flood the market it seems.  At least that’s what we should hope for 

SirNedKingOfGila

What customers? Iran owns the straight. UAE will never ship another barrel of oil without paying crippling tolls.

sailortyx56

UAE went from investing $1.5T in America to begging for a bailout and leaving OPEC in 6 months. lol

1-866-867-5309

UAE and KSA have had bad blood / mini cold war for a while now, they've been fighting a proxy war in Sudan

bad-roy

Saudi Arabia has raked in billions from this war by channelling its exports to the other side and capitalising on exorbitant prices, whilst the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait have taken some beating, as for the Iraqis, they've already on the brink of collapse there's no point even mentioning them.

Present-Platform-670

I expect Saudi Arabia to get into a price war with UAE and pump a ton of oil to try to get UAE to rejoin. May see $10 oil again in a few years.

NoProfessional4650

Fujairah and the pipeline terminus is expected to be repaired within 2-6 weeks. They’ve already reopened the broader facility and it’s just a matter of fixing the areas that were actually damaged. Shah Gas Field was arguably more damaged but estimates are at 1 to 3 months to fix that. UAE actually suffered the least damage vs Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The precedent it sets with OPEC means more and more members will likely bail, leading to more price competition overall long term. Why do you think they announced the OPEC exit now instead of later?

Gullible_Ad3785

Short term the bullish case is fantastic.  It takes a while to restart production and get the tankers delivering.  Of course the paper markets will go down if the strait comes back on line, but I am guessing not as fast or as deep as one might hope. Long term...there are a lot of variables.  Reserves got drawn down and a lot of countries that went light on reserves got fucked.  But EVs are demand destruction machines, as oil is mostly important for transportation rather than electricity generation. Also some more supply will be coming on market, like argentina and Venezuela.  There is a reason why the US shale guys are not going full drill, baby, drill despite windfall returns. Plus, you have Saudi arabia.  They tend to recover market share by dumping oil.  Will they do so again?  I see UAE leaving OPEC as not that important.  It's political habuki for trump to get the credit swaps so they can live to see tomorrow.  Also the GCC is a fucking joke.

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- **Ticker:** QQQ, AMD, MU **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Buy QQQ $700 and $800 Calls (Exp 3/19/2027), load up on TQQQ, AMD, and MU shares. **Catalyst:** Cheaper oil (UAE/Hormuz) + Fed rate cuts (Warsh) + Mag7 AI money trickling into semi capex. **Backup Plan:** Working the dumpster behind Wendy's.

Scalpaholic

I was thinking the US being allies with both SA and UAE is a good preventative too in addition to breaking up OPEC also being in US interests. Just wondering if SA (and remaining OPEC members) will test that like 🐝 🐝 does. 🤔

TS3Ronin

From understanding it's a short term solution. A week or 2 ago. UAE demanded Bessent to open the Strait. Alot countries were starting to trade under the Chinese Yuan. UAE said they would allow it. USA alleging to make them the 5th central bank in the petrol trade. By doing this, UAE will buy more usa treasuries. Which will pump the market with more liquidity and higher stocks but our debt and inflation will increase significantly. My guess they will wait till Kevin warsh lowers the rate to do this.

Delicious_Put_5857

not sure much more will happen rn cuz UAE doesn't want to like more officially join the US side since they'll just get bombed a fuck ton given where they are, and they also prob dont want to escalate directly with SA anymore than leaving OPEC already has

RelentlessPutz

UAE left opec will expand output by 25%... they likely wont be the last to jump ship on the cartel... time to look at some oil puts

Scalpaholic

So 🥭 causing the Strait to close def wasn't on the bingo cards. Would OPEC attacking UAE economically or physically to start a new era of Oil Wars be equally possible or waaaaay absurd even with what's going with Iran?

Mannipx

Writing is on the wall. This war is extremely bad for oil. This isnt 1980. A stoner can have solar on his van to power his van whatever. UAE is looking to cash before the world moves on from oil. It might come sooner then you think.  Short term oil is buy but long term game over

Rock_or_Rol

I’m with you! I do think there’s more to it than the market being this retarded into insane risk AND macro pressure… whether a last hoorah fomo buildup to sell into earnings and/or a manipulated melt up. Like, part of me wonders if certain gulf states are at the heart of the melt up and insider trading the oil manipulation. There’s a bit of a circular financing situation going on with the UAE and US so far as their own stimulus, currency swaps, the US most likely bailing them out, them leaving OPEC etc.. and they’re already heavily invested in the US market (when our growth potential is very low.. which makes me wonder what the quid pro quo is). There’s this too https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/other/2026/34-105108.pdf There is some fuckery afoot is all I know 😂

SD-Buckeye

You do realize there’s a hot war going on right next door to the UAE with the Straight of Hormuz being blockaded by both Iran and USA right?

exoriare

It will be easier for OPEC to pursue regime change against UAE than to let them continue to go rogue.

Gold-Weather_69

Then UAE are 2 weeks away from developing nuclear weapons 🤪

Bad_Day_Moose

UAE is the 4th largest oil producer in OPEC producing 2.92 million barrels per day to put that into perspective Canada produces 5.19 million barrels per day (Canada is not a member country of OPEC) 4/5th of Canada's oil or about 4 million barrels per day is exported to the USA which is about half of all the oil the US uses per day. it's a big number but there's bigger producers out there, initially there should be a market change but it'll end up being like 2% difference after the adjustment. ------ Globally what does this mean? OPEC is a group of oil producers, they can limit production of those producers to maintain oil prices, UAE plans on ramping up production and exports (after the Strait of Hormuz opens) which could help prices globally but... the UAE only represents a small amount of barrels per day in the big picture of things so it won't have some great affect for the rest of us but it will be a big deal for the UAE themselves.

MegalodonBite

USA already led the cartel bro - why do you think they use the petro dollar? UAE leaving is desperation to produce more oil... Increases the risk we lose the peto dollar. This is literally worst case desperation on the part of the USA. You some how spun this into a positive..... bruh what planet are you on

MegalodonBite

UAE left in response to Israel's invasion - not because of Iran missiles (this is predictable considering UAE hosts USA military bases). UAE left so they can produce above quota to take advantage of the crisis Israel caused. Likely encouraged to leave by USA. However the OPEC cartel keeps the petro dollar in power thus USA is playing with fire right now.

HoneyBadger552

UAE didnt fall into the trap of "getting high off their own supply". They can drill all they want or sit on it till prices go higher

jbjhill

Saudi Arabia and UAE not getting along in Yemen probably not helping anything, but even that has simmered down a bit.

Suitable_Concert5257

Maybe to summarise for people who’ve got to the end – my take on the comments above would be – this war is going to push a lot of countries to push renewables to improve their energy security because the economics of renewables are improving all the time making that a more feasible option. In the world where you could run out of jet fuel in six weeks that makes a lot of sense, though jet fuel I understand is quite a specialised kind of fuel, that’s only an example of the wider point – when oil was a long-term game the cartel made sense to optimise income in the long-term, but if renewals are going to come in on scale, which seems to be the case, this means that though there probably won’t be an end to the oil market anytime soon it’s total value will steadily reduce – thus this seems a like a situation where, if you are the lowest cost oil producer, and UAE would seem to be there or thereabouts, now is a good time to sell all your cheap oil, without restraint, hence UAE is going solo / leaving the cartel – this will probably mean that for people whose costs to produce oil are expensive, like America, their industries will suffer

Successful-End7689

Just did some research on this UAE “leaving OPEC+” situation, and it’s way bigger than it’s being made out to be. Energy volatility is coming and this could mess with the entire AI trade.

notapersonaltrainer

The UAE is the least likely OPEC member to break from the petrodollar after taking the brunt of Chinese-supplied rocket strikes.

KobeBean

Absolutely. I know that my org immediately offered anyone in the UAE org paid relocation to another office, with an option to make it permanent. That’s high skill tax revenue UAE doesn’t get anymore. I’m sure they’re not alone.

EternalStudent

UAE has a coast both on the gulf and on the Arabian sea. They can export out of both. There are limits for what they can move to the Arabian coast, and the Iranians attacked the ports and oil facilities there during the war for a reason.

NoProfessional4650

Oh my god. If the UAE increases production to their 5m bpd and Hormuz deal is reached… holy shit the markets are going to rip with the fed having the green light to gradually lower rates.

grogi81

The cartel is a classic case of prisoner dillema.  If no-one leaves, everyone within benefits. The moment someone leaves, the remaining parties are disadvantaged.  UAE has theoretical capability to avoid the straight... This is end of the OPEC. 

SKM007

Amazing!!! This is probs for an exchange swap with the United States. Helps untied states and UAE. Hurts Russia and the cartel

NoProfessional4650

Thank god my Leaps were getting cooked. Inshallah. Praise be to the 🥭tollah and the UAE!

JAD2017

> It will take years for UAE to fix their image. ??? What is going to take years is for the US to be trusted ever again lol

Marcus_Aurelius71

Yep. Saudis and UAE are not friends. Especially as the UAE increases ties with Israel while Saudi Arabia wants better ties with Syria.

geolchris

No, that’s why I said it was past the straight. UAE west coast is on the “Iranian” / inland / Persian gulf side of the strait (Dubai, Abu Dhabi), but their east coast is on the open ocean side. 

Mean-Evidence-4056

So wouldn't all the UAE have to do to help trump is to say they gona increase supply?

ConsecratedSnowfield

They were crying on the phone with him as Trump was deep frying shrimp in UAE oil

hiricinee

Short oil. UAE is planning on pumping like crazy and shipping it everywhere. Likely an upward push for the market.

Keeltoodeep

Bro you are literally choosing to believe the opposite of what the UAE is asking for and doing... [https://www.thebanker.com/content/8d98b00c-cd93-43a6-a6b7-3c4fc6280c57](https://www.thebanker.com/content/8d98b00c-cd93-43a6-a6b7-3c4fc6280c57)

The_JDubb

I wonder how long it will be before "terrorist" in the UAE become a "direct threat" to the security of the United States, and need to be dealt with there before they can attack the US.

ketodnepr

Feels bigger than it looks. UAE has been constrained by OPEC quotas while building more capacity, so this is them choosing flexibility over coordination. Winners: UAE gets control, big importers like China and India get better leverage, and the US benefits from weaker price coordination. Losers: Saudi loses some control, Russia gets less price support, and OPEC gets a little weaker. Not a shock today, but another step toward a more competitive, less coordinated oil market.

Put_Er_There_Sport

Talks are on with iran reluctantly opening the strait cause of the UAE then on top of all that, FOMC and 4/7 mag 7 earnings tomorrow afternoon. This week is loaded to be everything or nothing at all now lmao

Bob_the_peasant

Okay so UAE is gonna sell extra oil outside of their OPEC meal plan to capitalize on the extreme prices and how much the sales cap has screwed them over in the past? Doesn’t seem that catastrophic to me. Unless that means saudis are gonna start some shit in retaliation or some other geopolitical bullshit that i don’t even have half the IQ to comprehend

zinozAreNazis

True except the fact that oil doesn’t account for the majority of UAE GDP. The reason they created Dubai as it is today is because they don’t have as much oil as neighboring countries

NeoPrimitiveOasis

UAE doesn't have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in theory, either. The country reaches the other side. ("In theory" because I don't know where they have ports located, though)

Keeltoodeep

Opposite. UAE wants to sell more oil in dollars. Their currency is pegged to USD and they want a currency swap from Trump.

FloggingTheHorses

It would have been flat if not for the UAE OPEC announcement though.  I think collective anxiety around the Fed meeting, especially as it's Powell's last... he could stick the boot in. Plus the big tech earnings... big day tomorrow! 

Khamvom

Short term: Impact on oil prices is limited. Current oil/gas prices remain high due to the war. Long Term: Oil market will likely be more volatile and uncertain. UAE leaving OPEC means less overall oil control and more completion.

Bob_the_peasant

OPEC is gay anyway and we know how the UAE feels about that

Discount_gentleman

Consider the 1980s, when Saudi (largely at America's behest) flooded the market to keep prices very low in order to undermine both the Soviet Union and Iran. The parallel is certainly not exact here (especially since the US is such a large producer), but it helps provide historical context. An outside player (i.e. the US) with leverage/interest in UAE can use it as a swing producer to set oil prices. But UAE's neighbors may not play nice anymore.

Midnite_07

UAE out of OPEC... This will create weak control or disagreement within the group... May 1st, the oil market would go crazy.... Puts on SPY

Overall-Incident-870

If true, that’s actually big. UAE leaving OPEC could shake oil supply dynamics and weaken coordinated production cuts. But markets care about execution will they pump more or just act independently? Expect short-term volatility, but long-term impact depends on how aggressively they change output.

johndsmits

Ok, so UAE is out of OPEC, they can set their own price, supply volume, etc.. but isn't RIC, Fujairah, Habshan all shutdown anyway? Aren't those companies are declaring habeas corpus? So leaving OPEC a. breaks all delivery contracts they have with other countries & avoids lawsuits, and b. alleviates restrictions to set their own oil price to recover any losses. So basically no effect to the market. The oil isn't there anyway. This is so the arab princes can maintain their lifestyles.

WillTheGreat

In my opinion, infrastructure to extract, and refine exist and is likely paid off long ago. So the price of oil just need to stay high enough to cover the cost of extraction and refining. We're kind of on the back end of peak demand. It's really obvious the higher prices and consumption now is leading to development of alternatives. This is just cost driven, if oil is expensive it incentivize people to develop and seek alternatives. It's just natural. So your window to sell is limited, and the organization limits your production so your product is sold at the same rate as everyone else. So if your margins are exceedingly higher than other people, you net returns are still finite and limited based on agreed restrictions. If you're a higher margin country, can you absorb a hit to margin and replace that with overwhelming volume? The net demand for the world is what it is. It's a zero sum game in a sense that if UAE pushes more supply, someone else is losing that supply until they are willing to sell for less to spur demand. To me this is UAE seeing the window of opportunity to sell oil in large volume and preserve their margin to some extent is limited. It's a cash grab to force lower margin producers to capitulate, while allowing them to build up massive cash reserves.

ThisKarmaLimitSucks

Just looked it up.... this is definitely the cause. UAE was running out of dollars, and Bessent cut them a dollars-for-oil deal.

quick20minadventure

It's UAE ditching Saudi and US to be more friendly with Iran. It never made sense for UAE to pick unnecessary ideological fights with others and fuck themselves over when they were rich already. It's not just Oil, it's also diplomatic ties.

Remarkable_Cat_8696

So the UAE can produce more oil, but the export is still limited. Nothing is changed.

WorkingHorror99

UAE - "By breaking free from OPEC’s rigid quotas, the U.A.E. gains the flexibility to aggressively increase its oil production on its own terms. Its independence also allows the country to redirect capital toward securing its export routes—most notably by investing heavily in overland pipelines designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring its crude can reach global markets uninterrupted by maritime chokepoints or Iranian threats."

LasyKuuga

Living in 🥭 market I just keep thinking UAE is gonna back out of leaving OPEC for no reason