WTI

Careless-Place-170

Uh oh WTI Oil at jumping from 91.2 to 92 in the last 10 minutes on hyperliquid.

iamjt

Now if WTI crude can somehow go back down to 80 today it'll be awesome

Spy300

>- Do a fake ceasefire >- Fed holds rates >- Task forces redefine inflation >- Send WTI to 150 >- Global Crisis >- Emergency rate cuts >This is how you devalue your debt via financial repression ✅️

Spy300

>u/Spy300 15 points 4 months ago > - Do a few weeks of a fake ceasefire / peace talks > - Get the puppet fed chair confirmed > - Blow up kharg island / Invade / Start Iranian revolution **<-- (You Are Here)** > - Send WTI to 150 > - Puppet fed chair cuts to 1% >This is how you devalue your debt via **financial repression**. [[1]](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1sxes3c/what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_april_28_2026/oimpwpg/) ✅️

Soffatjockis

Brent 100 Tomorrow WTI 100 on (black) Monday

Sufficient-Skill9530

The system gets real shaky at $5,000 gold, $100 WTI and above 5% on the 10 yr. 

Full_Cash6140

If WTI pulls back under 85 soon I'm selling other stuff to load up.

itslikewoow

WTI rebounding

Spy300

*TRUMP: WHEN ARE THE IRANIAN PEOPLE GOING TO RISE UP AND FIGHT >u/Spy300 15 points 3 months ago > - Do a few weeks of a fake ceasefire / peace talks > - Get the puppet fed chair confirmed > - Blow up kharg island / Invade / Start Iranian revolution **<-- (You Are Here)** > - Send WTI to 150 > - Puppet fed chair cuts to 1% >This is how you devalue your debt via **financial repression**. [[1]](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1sxes3c/what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_april_28_2026/oimpwpg/) ✅️

NotMe357

Damn, WTI is gonna get to 100$ soon

Sufficient-Skill9530

Holy fuck, the 10 yr just crossed 4.8%, WTI is over $90, and the Yen is above 160. Bessent is pissing and shitting himself. 

OftenOlives

Murban at $105. WTI above $90 again. Reserves empty. Yea, it's find out time.

IIDn01

Holy cow. Brent over 95, WTI over 90.

selesnyaTroll

WTI at 90 and yen at 160. These are the lines Bessent has been desperately defending, but here we are right back at them. Almost like these dipshits have no fucking clue what they're doing. I fully expect this dumbass to try defending again though.

_SirShackleton_

I think demand destruction and refining capabillity will limit the upside, but i can imagine 120 -160 USD WTI.

Spy300

>TRUMP TO FOX NEWS: AGREEMENT WITH IRAN NOT WORTH THE PAPER IT'S WRITTEN ON; GAVE IRAN A LOT OF CHANCE WTI 150. Recession. Rate cuts. ✅️

caliwillbemine

WTI just broke $90. It’s Tuesday. Get the seasoned beef, iceberg lettuce, and shitty shredded cheese ready. It’s Taco Time.

joe4942

Wow, WTI oil back over $90 lmao.

savethechows

boys if WTI crosses 90 I can make rent

Spy300

REPORTS OF BLASTS ACROSS IRAN'S SOUTHERN REGIONS: STATE TV >- Do a fake ceasefire >- Fed holds rates >- Task forces redefine inflation >- Send WTI to 150 >- Global Crisis >- Emergency rate cuts >This is how you devalue your debt via financial repression ✅️

SignificanceLate7002

Brent about to hit $94 and WTI heading for $90

Prudent-Corgi3793

US10Y about to hit 4.8%, JPY above 160 Oh, and Brent pushing hitting 95 and WTI 89. Scotty doesn’t know why. Any more of that government intervention left, Bessent?

degen_contemplation

So, WTI is gonna break out to 92 again eh.

SpiderWil

what crash? there are no more insane news, the Iran attack already happened on Sunday, tariff happened on Friday, WTI crude oil happned today

SpiderWil

the dam premiums are also calculated from extrinsic values with the current being the freaking war, tariff, WTI crude oil reserve, did u forget all of that shit

Spy300

>BESSENT: ONLY WAY TO GET OUT OF DEBT IS TO GROW OUR WAY OUT OF DEBT Send WTI to 150

Soffatjockis

I think WTI 100 dollars will coincide with SPY ath Why? Because nothing makes sense, that's why.

atrox3838

Looking at COT data showing heavy short skew in both WTI and Brent from the big boys. Might have strong upward momentum due to headline risk this week regardless of Hormuz premium. Too late to enter USO in my opinion as the move has already cleared last weeks high and we're approaching TACO territory

Mr_Smith_81

WTI 90 isn’t the hard part. Keeping the Hormuz premium in the curve after the next productive call headline is.

atrox3838

Soooo, WTI to 90 this week? Then TACO back down to 72 week after? Rinse repeat til midterms?

johndsmits

Yup, that's the strategy, mix WTI light with Venz Sour. Problem is takes more nat gas (ok), energy (?), rare earths (?), and compute (ok). All I can say $4/gal and more pollution in the TX area for the next decade at this point.

Spy300

TRUMP - KHARG ISLAND BEING BLOWN TO SMITHEREENS >u/spy300 30 days ago >Here's the plan >- Do a fake ceasefire during Fed week >- Drive oil down 10% >- Fed holds rates >- Blow up Kharg Island >- Send WTI to 150 >- Task forces redefine inflation >- Emergency rate cuts >This is how you devalue your debt via **financial repression** [[1]](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1v99hsu/what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_july_29_2026/p0drv41/) ✅️

Sufficient-Skill9530

Just to clarify about these reports, they are bs, at least how it’s being presented. Venezuelan oil is even more viscous than Canadian heavy crude. It’s basically tar. Now, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value or that it can’t be refined. Many US refineries are actually designed for Canadian/Venezuelan heavy oil, and not Permian light sweet oil.  Why it’s bullshit and not going to manifest in anything is because of what’s needed to actually get it out of the ground and transport it, AND the fact that we aren’t in a crude oil shortage, we are in a refinery shortage.  First, getting it out of the round requires steam injection, artificial lift, dilution, water flooding, etc. so it’s not just poking a hole in the sand like in the GCC. It is also caustic and polluting, which, along with underinvestment and neglect, are why the Venezuelan infrastructure has rotted away. That’s just getting it out, once it is out of the ground it can’t just be pumped in a pipe. It needs to be diluted and or upgraded.  Second, the economics are terrible. Because it’s so difficult to extract and transport, the break even costs per barrel are $60 (Wood Mackenzie puts it as high as $80). Add to that, Venezuelan oil trades at a discount to WTI, so at the current ~$80 WTI price, Venezuelan oil is barely profitable. Compare this to break even costs of the GCC at $20 per barrel, and Suncor (Canada) at $38 per barrel.  Third, oil companies do not want to invest in a politically and socially unstable area like Venezuela. Exxon and ConocoPhillips both lost billions already trying to get Venezuelan oil out. Wood Mackenzie forecast it would take 10 years and $10-$20 billion in capital investments for Venezuela to go from the current 1 million barrels per day to 1.5 million. Canada produces 3.5-4 million barrels a day, so this gambit isn’t going to replace Canada’s oil for US refineries, especially refineries in the US midwest. Lastly, the world isn’t currently in a dire crude shortage. With Ukraine and Iran taking out or denying refineries from generating products, we are in a gas and diesel shortage. China has a lot of refining capacity in its teapot refineries that can offset missing refineries. If this happens, the record crack spreads would shrink, and we’d likely again see rising crude oil prices because, despite what the crude futures show, we are still down an insane amount of crude oil.  Sources… This is the data I have for break even prices for Canadian producers… - Canadian Natural Resources: $40-$45 per barrel - Suncor: $38 per barrel - Cenovus: oil sands $21, total corp $45 - Strathcona Resources: $35 I don’t have good data for Venezuela, maybe someone has better. I only have $60-$80 per barrel.

SignificanceLate7002

1.8% jump on WTI crude

Sufficient-Skill9530

I fully expect oil futures to drop, not because the Venezuela deal is real, but because oil traders behave like a battered housewife every time Trump makes an announcement. Just to clarify about these reports, they are total bullshit, at least how it’s being presented. Venezuelan oil is even more viscous than Canadian heavy crude. It’s basically tar. Now, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value or that it can’t be refined. Many US refineries are actually designed for Canadian/Venezuelan heavy oil, and not Permian light sweet oil.  Why it’s bullshit and not going to manifest in anything is because of what’s needed to actually get it out of the ground and transport it, AND the fact that we aren’t in a crude oil shortage, we are in a refinery shortage.  First, getting it out of the round requires steam injection, artificial lift, dilution, water flooding, etc. so it’s not just poking a hole in the sand like in the GCC. It is also caustic and polluting, which, along with underinvestment and neglect, are why the Venezuelan infrastructure has rotted away. That’s just getting it out, once it is out of the ground it can’t just be pumped in a pipe. It needs to be diluted and or upgraded.  Second, the economics are terrible. Because it’s so difficult to extract and transport, the break even costs per barrel are $60 (Wood Mackenzie puts it as high as $80). Add to that, Venezuelan oil trades at a discount to WTI, so at the current ~$80 WTI price, Venezuelan oil is barely profitable. Compare this to break even costs of the GCC at $20 per barrel, and Suncor (Canada) at $38 per barrel.  Third, oil companies do not want to invest in a politically and socially unstable area like Venezuela. Exxon and ConocoPhillips both lost billions already trying to get Venezuelan oil out. Wood Mackenzie forecast it would take 10 years and $10-$20 billion in capital investments for Venezuela to go from the current 1 million barrels per day to 1.5 million. Canada produces 3.5-4 million barrels a day, so this gambit isn’t going to replace Canada’s oil for US refineries, especially refineries in the US midwest. Lastly, the world isn’t currently in a dire crude shortage. With Ukraine and Iran taking out or denying refineries from generating products, we are in a gas and diesel shortage. China has a lot of refining capacity in its teapot refineries that can offset missing refineries. If this happens, the record crack spreads would shrink, and we’d likely again see rising crude oil prices because, despite what the crude futures show, we are still down an insane amount of crude oil.  Sources… This is the data I have for break even prices for Canadian producers… - Canadian Natural Resources: $40-$45 per barrel - Suncor: $38 per barrel - Cenovus: oil sands $21, total corp $45 - Strathcona Resources: $35 I don’t have good data for Venezuela, maybe someone has better. I only have $60-$80 per barrel.

Sufficient-Skill9530

It’s bullshit, at least how it’s being presented. Venezuelan oil is even more viscous than Canadian heavy crude. It’s basically tar. Now, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value or that it can’t be refined. Many US refineries are actually designed for Canadian/Venezuelan heavy oil, and not Permian light sweet oil.  Why it’s bullshit and not going to manifest in anything is because of what’s needed to actually get it out of the ground and transport it, AND the fact that we aren’t in a crude oil shortage, we are in a refinery shortage.  First, getting it out of the round requires steam injection, artificial lift, dilution, water flooding, etc. so it’s not just poking a hole in the sand like in the GCC. It is also caustic and polluting, which, along with underinvestment and neglect, are why the Venezuelan infrastructure has rotted away. That’s just getting it out, once it is out of the ground it can’t just be pumped in a pipe. It needs to be diluted and or upgraded.  Second, the economics are terrible. Because it’s so difficult to extract and transport, the break even costs per barrel are $60 (Wood Mackenzie puts it as high as $80). Add to that, Venezuelan oil trades at a discount to WTI, so at the current ~$80 WTI price, Venezuelan oil is barely profitable. Compare this to break even costs of the GCC at $20 per barrel, and Suncor (Canada) at $38 per barrel.  Third, oil companies do not want to invest in a politically and socially unstable area like Venezuela. Exxon and ConocoPhillips both lost billions already trying to get Venezuelan oil out. Wood Mackenzie forecast it would take 10 years and $10-$20 billion in capital investments for Venezuela to go from the current 1 million barrels per day to 1.5 million. Canada produces 3.5-4 million barrels a day, so this gambit isn’t going to replace Canada’s oil for US refineries, especially refineries in the US midwest. Lastly, the world isn’t currently in a dire crude shortage. With Ukraine and Iran taking out or denying refineries from generating products, we are in a gas and diesel shortage. China has a lot of refining capacity in its teapot refineries that can offset missing refineries. If this happens, the record crack spreads would shrink, and we’d likely again see rising crude oil prices because, despite what the crude futures show, we are still down an insane amount of crude oil. 

Sufficient-Skill9530

It’s bullshit, at least how it’s being presented. Venezuelan oil is even more viscous than Canadian heavy crude. It’s basically tar. Now, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value or that it can’t be refined. Many US refineries are actually designed for Canadian/Venezuelan heavy oil, and not Permian light sweet oil.  Why it’s bullshit and not going to manifest in anything is because of what’s needed to actually get it out of the ground and transport it, AND the fact that we aren’t in a crude oil shortage, we are in a refinery shortage.  First, getting it out of the round requires steam injection, artificial lift, dilution, water flooding, etc. so it’s not just poking a hole in the sand like in the GCC. It is also caustic and polluting, which, along with underinvestment and neglect, are why the Venezuelan infrastructure has rotted away. That’s just getting it out, once it is out of the ground it can’t just be pumped in a pipe. It needs to be diluted and or upgraded.  Second, the economics are terrible. Because it’s so difficult to extract and transport, the break even costs per barrel are $60 (Wood Mackenzie puts it as high as $80). Add to that, Venezuelan oil trades at a discount to WTI, so at the current ~$80 WTI price, Venezuelan oil is barely profitable. Compare this to break even costs of the GCC at $20 per barrel, and Suncor (Canada) at $38 per barrel.  Third, oil companies do not want to invest in a politically and socially unstable area like Venezuela. Exxon and ConocoPhillips both lost billions already trying to get Venezuelan oil out. Wood Mackenzie forecast it would take 10 years and $10-$20 billion in capital investments for Venezuela to go from the current 1 million barrels per day to 1.5 million. Canada produces 3.5-4 million barrels a day, so this gambit isn’t going to replace Canada’s oil for US refineries, especially refineries in the US midwest. Lastly, the world isn’t currently in a dire crude shortage. With Ukraine and Iran taking out or denying refineries from generating products, we are in a gas and diesel shortage. China has a lot of refining capacity in its teapot refineries that can offset missing refineries. If this happens, the record crack spreads would shrink, and we’d likely again see rising crude oil prices because, despite what the crude futures show, we are still down an insane amount of crude oil.  I’m sure I’ll be claimed to be a bear, I’m not. I am bullish on the market because I expect, even though Trump’s deal is total bullshit, it will still cause oil futures to dump and equities to rip. 

nexico

It's going to free up WTI for that.

Sufficient-Skill9530

It is bullshit, at least how it’s being presented. Venezuelan oil is even more viscous than Canadian heavy crude. It’s basically tar. Now, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value or that it can’t be refined. Many US refineries are actually designed for Canadian/Venezuelan heavy oil, and not Permian light sweet oil.  Why it’s bullshit and not going to manifest in anything is because of what’s needed to actually get it out of the ground and transport it, AND the fact that we aren’t in a crude oil shortage, we are in a refinery shortage.  First, getting it out of the round requires steam injection, artificial lift, dilution, water flooding, etc. so it’s not just poking a hole in the sand like in the GCC. It is also caustic and polluting, which, along with underinvestment and neglect, are why the Venezuelan infrastructure has rotted away. That’s just getting it out, once it is out of the ground it can’t just be pumped in a pipe. It needs to be diluted and or upgraded.  Second, the economics are terrible. Because it’s so difficult to extract and transport, the break even costs per barrel are $60 (Wood Mackenzie puts it as high as $80). Add to that, Venezuelan oil trades at a discount to WTI, so at the current ~$80 WTI price, Venezuelan oil is barely profitable. Compare this to break even costs of the GCC at $20 per barrel, and Suncor (Canada) at $38 per barrel.  Third, oil companies do not want to invest in a politically and socially unstable area like Venezuela. Exxon and ConocoPhillips both lost billions already trying to get Venezuelan oil out. Wood Mackenzie forecast it would take 10 years and $10-$20 billion in capital investments for Venezuela to go from the current 1 million barrels per day to 1.5 million. Canada produces 3.5-4 million barrels a day, so this gambit isn’t going to replace Canada’s oil for US refineries, especially refineries in the US midwest. Lastly, the world isn’t currently in a dire crude shortage. With Ukraine and Iran taking out or denying refineries from generating products, we are in a gas and diesel shortage. China has a lot of refining capacity in its teapot refineries that can offset missing refineries. If this happens, the record crack spreads would shrink, and we’d likely again see rising crude oil prices because, despite what the crude futures show, we are still down an insane amount of crude oil. 

Sufficient-Skill9530

Very much so, at least how it’s being presented. Venezuelan oil is even more viscous than Canadian heavy crude. It’s basically tar. Now, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have value or that it can’t be refined. Many US refineries are actually designed for Canadian/Venezuelan heavy oil, and not Permian light sweet oil.  Why it’s bullshit and not going to manifest in anything is because of what’s needed to actually get it out of the ground and transport it, AND the fact that we aren’t in a crude oil shortage, we are in a refinery shortage.  First, getting it out of the round requires steam injection, artificial lift, dilution, water flooding, etc. so it’s not just poking a hole in the sand like in the GCC. It is also caustic and polluting, which, along with underinvestment and neglect, are why the Venezuelan infrastructure has rotted away. That’s just getting it out, once it is out of the ground it can’t just be pumped in a pipe. It needs to be diluted and or upgraded.  Second, the economics are terrible. Because it’s so difficult to extract and transport, the break even costs per barrel are $60 (Wood Mackenzie puts it as high as $80). Add to that, Venezuelan oil trades at a discount to WTI, so at the current ~$80 WTI price, Venezuelan oil is barely profitable. Compare this to break even costs of the GCC at $20 per barrel, and Suncor (Canada) at $38 per barrel.  Third, oil companies do not want to invest in a politically and socially unstable area like Venezuela. Exxon and ConocoPhillips both lost billions already trying to get Venezuelan oil out. Wood Mackenzie forecast it would take 10 years and $10-$20 billion in capital investments for Venezuela to go from the current 1 million barrels per day to 1.5 million. Canada produces 3.5-4 million barrels a day, so this gambit isn’t going to replace Canada’s oil for US refineries, especially refineries in the US midwest. Lastly, the world isn’t currently in a dire crude shortage. With Ukraine and Iran taking out or denying refineries from generating products, we are in a gas and diesel shortage. China has a lot of refining capacity in its teapot refineries that can offset missing refineries. If this happens, the record crack spreads would shrink, and we’d likely again see rising crude oil prices because, despite what the crude futures show, we are still down an insane amount of crude oil. 

WallStreetRobert

WTI lol as a predicted.

steem99

WTI does look very tempting below $80 but it's hard to fully rule out the possibility of the mother of all TACOs. Even if the deal is hugely unfavourable for the US, if it actually opens the strait, that's all that really matters.

iamjt

WTI can you please fuck off to like 77 dollars before Europe opens

Dear-Original-1024

WTI -1.8% Brent flat. Which one is fake?

Sufficient-Skill9530

Holy shit, WTI down 4.5% and dropping. 

iamjt

I need a big red dildo.... In WTI

SpiderWil

u read the sp500 heat map, last week and this week market, the economic calendar, the iran war, tariff, WTI crude oil, and ask AI if u miss out anything

Icommandyou

Every day there is a headline like new data shows Hormuz traffic dropped to new lows and WTI goes negative lol

Spy300

NEW: US down to only 41 days of crude oil inventory, the lowest level in 50 years. >- Do a fake ceasefire >- Fed holds rates >- Task forces redefine inflation >- Send WTI to 150 >- Global Crisis >- Emergency rate cuts ✅️ This is how you devalue your debt via financial repression

Sufficient_Habit5091

WSB: HO LEE FUK BEZZENT D DAY WTI: *crickets*

Surveillance_Van1

I'm liking the data center play from a different direction than chips, construction, software, and component suppliers that seems to be all the rage these days. I have a position in TPL, WTTR, and WBI. The data center hate is growing just as fast as flock camera hate in communities with massive pushback from people who would essentially be in the shadow of them because (for some strange reason) of the implications to the surrounding areas power and water bills being affected by usage from the. Once politicians realize that their constituents are probably going to be pretty much pissed at them for allowing things to progress while there's such an outcry, they will, and have already started, shutdown projects. This is where my picks are going to be the ones profiting. The permian basin is pretty much a desolate uninhabited wasteland speckled with oil wells and drilling rigs that use water pulled from the ground for their operations that then gets injected back into the ground because it's not consumable for people and it's typically salt brine. TPL: Owns an absolute crap ton of land (mineral/water rights included) in this region and for a century has been collecting royalties from oil being pulled from it, water being used and disposed of from it. They are active in water desalination and have developed a process of cleaning the contamination caused by being used in oil extraction. They also collect on pipeline easements and natural gas extraction. Now, the play. There's an abundance of natural gas there. So much so, that when it's under $3 it's more cost effective to just burn it than to compress and truck it out. There's not enough volume capacity in the few pipelines that run out to sell the stuff any other way. Power generation needs natural gas, Chevron partnership just announced. Datacenters need power and water for cooling. TPL has this covered with not only aquifer rights but the ability to provide treated "used" water that would otherwise just be injected back down a spent well along with surface rights on property that most likely already has basic road infrastructure from the oily guys needing to get trucks here and there. Couple all of this with the fact that there's no whining from the neighbors about the big computer building and how evil it is along with their Facebook posts about not needing such installments not grasping the irony of posting it on a reason behind data centers. This is why the former Google CEO now CEO of BOLT Data and Energy partnership announcement last December was kinda not too surprising. WTI : Similar for the water supply part just geographically Delaware basin/New Mexico and sister company LB (surface rights only) is actively working to secure deals for data centers on land they own which WTI will keep water flowing to along with the already existing contracts for petrochemical stuff that's not doing too badly. WTTR: Literally bought it because I thought I'd stick to the theme while running down WTI info a couple of months back and it's been good. Wish I'd have thrown more at it than $500. Sorry for the long post.

No_Feeling920

The retard in chief might actually do it, but the real question is - how much is that going to bring down product prices? The US exports excess light crude and imports heavy sour, so they get the right mix for their refineries (and enough heavy products like diesel, jet and bunker fuel and lubricants, which cannot be made in sufficient quantities from WTI alone). Any kind of export restrictions may not have the desired effect, because that would create a mismatch between supply mix of crude (too much WTI) and what the refineries can actually process and produce. It could cause a glut of light sweet crude, bring down the prices of lighter fractions (gasoline) perhaps. But it won't address shortages of the heavier fractions/products. It would just wreck the profit margins of US light crude drillers.

FlabbyLabby

So, USO at $210 ≈ WTI $132–$140, with \~$135 as my central estimate. I mean, it’s doable with some major disruption, like a regional pipeline explosion. Either way not a bad narrative. Oh, keep in mind we’re already experiencing minor/major disruption, with Hormuz closed. You have 7 months, so anything can happen. Good luck!

Exciting-Fun-5435

The U.S. imports oil from different countries to optimise the blend of oil for refineries. So actually the U.S. imports some oil and exports some oil as well. You can see that in this table published weekly:  https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/table1.pdf. What you’ll see is that imports this week was 6.6 mb/d and exports was 4.1 mb/d. For reference, the U.S. produced 13.8 mb/d. So those import/export numbers are not small. So in fact, the U.S. needs other countries and is in fact a net importer of crude oil. In fact if they isolate themselves, the U.S. would actually not benefit in some ways because although WTI will get cheaper, refineries will not have enough input (they use 17.4 mb/d. In that case they would stop producing gas and diesel and jet fuel which people need, which would make prices for those even worse than they already are. But you are correct on the last part: if no crude oil can be exported, WTI will decrease in price because some buyers are prevented from purchase. 

savethechows

# OIL MOONING /s (WTI +0.22%)

bashsmore

I'm shorting hard on WTI, so yes it wil go to the moon

EmbarrassedPart1256

I've had a $WTI CSP sold for a $$1.50 strike which seems to be serving its purpose (premium without assignment) well. $WTI is rocking & rolling...

Sufficient-Skill9530

Short oil? WTI is only at the mid $80s, the path to $100 seems more probable than the path back to $60. 

Objective-War-7458

Your premise is directionally correct, but fundamentally wrong. If you look at the last couple auctions for bonds, as mentioned through this thread once or twice, they've been healthy issues. Bid to cover, primary dealer, tails... All within expectations for GOOD auctions. This means there are enough buyers for current US debt. Period. Until this changes and it will most likely change suddenly. I'd argue that with yields hitting record highs, it was unsurprising that Bessent intervenned on the morning of the 20yr Bond auction (fresh, not a reissue) as the 20yr has had problems which bleed over into the stock market. This occurred on May 21, 2025 with what was an overall -2% drop in the S&P500. (Market was up +0.5% before closing down 1.5% on a 1.2 basis point increase) The May 21st auction had a tail increase of 1.2 basis points, which set a new record and sent the markets spiraling. Prior to yesterdays auction, record highs had been reached, so a new record high on the tail was all but guaranteed. Bessent defused that bomb in the AM. I bet you weren't thinking about the bomb he was trying to defuse or you would have mentioned it. So, he wasn't trying to gin up more demand, he was trying to control yields for a bond auction which has gone nuclear. And he was successful at that goal. The auction went fine, with a tail of a basis point or so, but no new record. Healthy bid to cover and low primary dealer take. The auction went fine and there are NO issues on the demand side. Where you are directionally correct are the yields hitting record highs and the severity of the structural problems they expose. In the past year, $3T-$4T has been added to the debt, we are getting close to tipping points for debt servicing vs governmental functioning. If you know "starve the beast" this could be the plan. However, I don't think this plan really was meant to happen during an active war with Iran that has exhausted our weapons stockpiles. They are very, very expensive to replace. And with oil prices working their way up, the SPR releases working their way down (for structural reasons the pumps can no longer be run fast), this is where "starve the beast" runs into real-world expensive problems that require gobs and gobs of money to solve. Which you can't do if you're starving the beast. Bessent, this morning, by indicating that he could increase the size of the bond repurchases (which are done at a discount, say 55%-70%, so not at par), pretty much indicated that the magazine is "empty". There's little to jowbone in the oil market because the SPR is constrained by physical limits on the pumps imposed by the drawdowns. Pull too fast when the SPR is low and you'll get oil/brine slurry which cavites the pump vanes literally tearing them apart. We're going to be restricted to 500k bpd draws, if we want to use the SPR. Haven't even gotten to the cavern integrity due to the brine solutions eroding the walls and support. It is actually possible for the SPR to collapse on us, rendering all the oil inaccessible, if we draw to fast. So, Bessent can't talk down the bond market, SPR is bottle-necked from draws. You're left with Presidential IEEPA authority which would crash the market if deployed PRIOR to extreme market events. You don't deploy the bazooka when the stock market is at record highs, it's sorta like the crash has to happen to grant the authority. Think of it like a nuclear bomb, which is topical, and stunningly accurate. It should be in response to another nuclear bomb and expressly not because you feel like it. A first use nuclear doctrine would destabilize the world quite quickly. Congress is divided. So they are off the board. The Fed will respond and not act pre-emptively. That would be very, very bad for presidential politics as it would be the president steering the fed through his actions, as opposed to the fed trying to optimize their dual mandate in response to political policy. Where does that leave us? We have a jawboned stock and oil market. Stock market is near record highs after a record run up - include a 5% week based on good corporate earnings and a peace deal which never came. The oil market is jawboned like crazy. Participation in the futures markets are a fraction of what they should be and crack spreads are at record highs - which means that the futures market for raw materials may be mispriced the market for intermediate and finished products is not. This could be exceptionally dangerous. Could. We don't know, hasn't happened before to my knowledge. My base expectation is when this corrects it will be violent. On the other hand, most futures are cash settled, not oil settled (outside of CME), so Brent/WTI need not experience a violent correction: there's no real oil to deliver. Just paper. And this difference may be (most likely is) what the administration is betting on. You can infinitely fake a fake market not dependent on deliverables. Does not help diesel at the pump, or LSFO in the bunker which reflect reality, so you'll be impacted even if the benchmarks are "faked". Where does this leave us? Good question. But not where you think we are. This can go on for quite some time. But Bessent is out of ammunition. Donzo. Trump is equally constrained. It could be days, it could still be weeks. The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. It is my belief, however, that we hit tops. If Bessent is out of ammo, his magazine has run dry, and the jawboning is undone in hours not days, the Iran conflict (affecting oil) is functionally strategy-less, flailing and potentially ill-equipped to muster a response (which cedes the initiative to Iran), this sounds like tops. And, I do know a bit about the military - certainly more than most. I suspect we pulled out of the Korean exercises because we are unable to support them having previously moved many of the THAAD, Patriot and Naval assets to the Middle East. I don't know what else went, but with drawing prevents the embarrassment of showing up without pants and rifles (by this I mean batteries, jets and carrier strike groups) which would leak to the press, given the massive scale of the exercises. I'm gonna call tops. I don't know if this is going to be a crash or a tumble, but I haven't even gotten into private credit imploding and AI bonds/financing. All of this happening at the same time (and more) is a rare, rare, rare storm reminiscent of the GFC.

Nervous-Sky2414

WTI crude rising

Spy300

>BESSENT STATES: WE WILL BRING DOWN THIS IRANIAN REGIME. >u/Spy300 5 points 1 month ago >Here's the plan >- Do a fake ceasefire >- Fed holds rates >- Send WTI to 150 >- Task forces redefine inflation >- Emergency rate cuts >This is how you devalue your debt via **financial repression** I am the Oracle.

Sufficient-Skill9530

Not me. I went all in on oil when WTI hit $68. Then I moved a chunk to gold and silver when gold dropped to $4,000 and silver dropped to $55. I’m up 47% over the last few months. 

Spy300

BREAKING: Oil prices up 3% >u/Spy300 5 points >Here's the plan >- Do a fake ceasefire >- Fed holds rates >- Send WTI to 150 >- Task forces redefine inflation >- Emergency rate cuts >This is how you devalue your debt via **financial repression** ✅️.

TheHawk1313

I'm with ya... There are some other Oil stocks that actually follow logic... WTI up, stock price up... This thing does not. Oil prices nearly irrelevant to this thing... Ya think its gotta go up...it just sits there. Scalping, yes. Swing or LTH, no

Haikoe

WTI to 90 eow

Next_Ride2438

There's no way it’s going past $65.00, bud. There is a peace deal between Oman and Iran coming out within two weeks. Remember, WTI and Brent are already pushing towards $100.00. If no peace talks happen over the next weekend ill buy 200k on margin. My word. Ill post it here

Spy300

>TRUMP: 'WORLD’S MOST POWERFUL RESET!!! Listen to the words. WTI 150. Emergency rate cuts.

Prestigious_Rod6969

US Oil WTI - Dec 2035 (USOIL) 85.26

Spy300

TRUMP INSTRUCTED HIS TEAM NOT TO ENGAGE IN TALKS WITH IRAN UNTIL IT IS READY TO SIGN A DEAL >u/Spy300 >Here's the plan >- Do a fake ceasefire during Fed week >- Drive oil down 10% >- Fed holds rates >- Send WTI to 150 >- Task forces redefine inflation >- Emergency rate cuts >This is how you devalue your debt via **financial repression** ✅️ Told you.

Spy300

TRUMP: NO TALKS OR CONVERSATIONS GOING ON, OR SCHEDULED WITH IRAN >Here's the plan >- Do a fake ceasefire during Fed week >- Drive oil down 10% >- Fed holds rates >- Send WTI to 150 >- Task forces redefine inflation >- Emergency rate cuts >This is how you devalue your debt via **financial repression** ✅️ They call me the Oracle

SpiderWil

bear bc the ceasfire deal ended trump refuse to extend it, WTI oil jumped to 85

BarbellPadawan

Brent crude and WTI rising

Tay_Tay86

WTI should release an LLM. Are they a stupid company?

Icommandyou

WTI opening red because strait was always open, oil flows freely everywhere

Geoff_Dawmer

WTI = Double UTI.

Powerful-Sky-9195

Does anybody know why Brent is down 4% on Robinhood perps while WTI is flat?

mileylols

Tankers are expensive. Average price premium for WTI in Asia over Texas is about $5/barrel. This is much lower than what it currently costs to move a barrel of oil to Japan. So if WTI crude is like $80 in Oklahoma, and you can sell it for $85 in China, but it costs you $10 to ship it there, you actually make more selling it here at the lower price.

NotMe357

Dollars is dying, 2 year is dying, 10 year is dying. Now we just need WTI to go under 80$.

Spy300

ADM. BRAD COOPER CALLED FOR RENEWED STRIKES ON IRAN'S GAS, OIL AND ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE - ISRAEL'S CHANNEL 13 >u/Spy300 10 points 15 days ago >Here's the plan >- Do a fake ceasefire during Fed week >- Drive oil down 10% >- Fed holds rates >- Blow up Kharg Island >- Send WTI to 150 >- Task forces redefine inflation >- Emergency rate cuts >This is how you devalue your debt via **financial repression** LIKE A BOSS

Spy300

ADM. BRAD COOPER CALLED FOR RENEWED STRIKES ON IRAN'S GAS, OIL AND ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE - ISRAEL'S CHANNEL 13 >u/Spy300 15 points 2 months ago > - Do a few weeks of a fake ceasefire / peace talks > - Get the puppet fed chair confirmed > - Blow up kharg island / Invade / Start Iranian revolution **<-- (You Are Here)** > - Send WTI to 150 > - Puppet fed chair cuts to 1% >✅️ This is how you devalue your debt via **financial repression**. [[1]](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1sxes3c/what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_april_28_2026/oimpwpg/) I am the *Oracle*.

Upstairs_System_6257

Remember, good CPI means we can print oil. WTI to 0 today 🥰

GoZukkYourself

The average WTI oil price for the full month: • June → $84.81 • July → $80.46

itslikewoow

WTI $90+ by Friday

Tripleawge

@Mods to add to the Stocks Everyone should be paying attention to now due to this development; $USO $XLE and $WTI will be good ones to try and get in on the coming oil price moves

Tripleawge

Speak for yourself I bought $USO, $XLE, and a ton of options for $WTI back in April and made sure to Dollar Cost Average all the way down through May-July because if there is 1 thing you can **BANK ON** its a Donald J Trump Business Deal ***Failure***

AggravatingCrow897

**10Y: 4.733% ↑** **20Y: 5.294% ↑** **30Y: 5.279% ↑** **WTI: $84.32, +2.47%** **Brent: $89.87, +2.28%** **DXY: 99.57, basically flat** **VIX: 15.48** **Gold: $4,362, actually down 0.64%** **Bitcoin: \~$64K, basically flat** TLDR: Buy Calls

DrummerFew1727

WTI heading to much higher level after having corrected in wave 2 to 74...go long with stop of 67 for target of 100+-- Elliot wave international https://preview.redd.it/kzehzoqeimih1.jpeg?width=526&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b77aaa897ab00748f2a3069e2ac7e78342b7b724

DrummerFew1727

WTI heading to much higher level after having corrected in wave 2 to 74...go long with stop of 67 for target of 100+-- Elliot wave international https://preview.redd.it/e0lgfsougmih1.jpeg?width=526&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=be7b96d7855430f45a3ac4e03b13250d1283b06c

NotMe357

Where the fuck is Bessent? Oil WTI is above 80$ now!

Common-Royal8234

WTI above 80 incoming

bashsmore

Thank you WTI, my morning stress routine of 1 hour going long and short is already done 👍

azboy

I've traded options on EURUSD futures and WTI futures for years, gets really fun at delivery when having to hedge ITM options, roll before last trading day etc...

Spy300

Send WTI to 150 Japan dies Carry Trade over Spy 300

Spy300

PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS "WE MAY HAVE TO" **SEND** OIL PRICES HIGHER. >Here's the plan >- Do a fake ceasefire during Fed week >- Fed holds rates >- Task forces redefine inflation >- Blow up Kharg Island >- Send WTI to 150 >- Emergency rate cuts >This is how you devalue your debt via **financial repression** TRUMP HAS CALLED WARSH REPEATEDLY SINCE HE BECAME FED CHAIR, SOURCES SAY -- WSJ TRUMP HAS SOUGHT WARSH'S COUNSEL ON ISSUES SUCH AS IRAN WAR'S EFFECT ON ECONOMY, SOURCES SAY -- WSJ

puycelsi

What will WTI do ? Up or down

PenguinOfB00m

RSI, WTI, 10yrs bonds, the tricky one is figuring resistances

Spy300

>Trump says "we may have to" send oil prices higher. Bro even used the word send. *Send WTI to 150*

Mysteriouz_111

I lost 800$ on oil calls I’m very sad guys I had made around 550$ during the pump Bet heavily that WTI could hit 100, but nah man Kept on going down

Icommandyou

I basically flat out don’t believe any Axios headlines but WTI gonna go to $0 anyway

Icommandyou

WTI heading to $0 and also means strait was never closed or it was never important . All those “experts” been lying