WTI

Leveraged_Lots

WTI is at $61 as we speak, I won't worry unless we start approaching the low $50s again

ChattemiteOrelse

Interesting approach. Quite bald. I used to own Petrobras. Now only Viper Energy (VENOM) on oil & gas. I trained years ago on TotalEnergies. Basic approach for me : proved reserves; cost per baril ; and follow WTI (when low add when high sell - with prior defined targets ; most of the time wait & enjoy dividends). Check on management, costs and debts. I’m kind of impressed by your portfolio but wouldn’t dare explore such a path. Wish you the best

No_Assistance5652

If canada oil gets blocked, WTI will hit 80$ this week. But most probably a bluff.

Celticsmoneyline

WTI moved today

Celticsmoneyline

Why is WTI up like 10%?

TWSTrader

**The headline says "Iran," but the market hears "China."** If you want to trade this news, you have to look past the political rhetoric and look at the **Crude Oil flows.** This is a secondary sanction disguised as a tariff, and the primary target is Beijing. **1. The China Connection** * **The Data:** China purchases approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports (roughly 1.2M - 1.5M barrels per day). They buy it at a steep discount. * **The Squeeze:** If the U.S. actually enforces a 25% tariff on "any country" trading with Iran, China faces a choice: Pay the tariff (massive hit to their export economy) or stop buying Iranian oil. * **The Pivot:** If China drops Iranian oil, they don't stop needing energy. They have to replace that 1.5M barrels/day on the **Open Market** (Saudi, UAE, or US Crude). **2. The Inflationary Impact** * **Bullish Oil:** You are effectively removing \~1.5M barrels of "Shadow Supply" and adding 1.5M barrels of "Legitimate Demand" to the global benchmark. That pushes Brent and WTI prices up. * **Supply Chain Chaos:** "Effective Immediately" is a nightmare for corporate compliance. Global multinationals will likely halt *all* trade with associated regions instantly to avoid the risk. That creates supply chain friction -> Higher Costs -> Inflation. **The Bottom Line:** Don't trade the "War" narrative. Trade the **Spread.** This tightens the global oil market significantly. I’m watching Energy (XLE) and Shipping (Tankers) at the open.

masta_22_

Tu as oublier Tamarack Valley Energie LTD (TVE.TO). C'est la pétrolière canadienne qui à le cout de production du baril le plus bas au Canada soit 35$. Avec un WTI a 60$. La marge de bénéfice est tout simplement monstrueuse. Le programme de rachat d'action pour 2026 vien d'être accélérer et un evestissement de 65 nouveaux puits haurizontaux dans la région de clear water va renforcir sa position dans la région.

skyplt29

Although reluctant to admit I still own Tilray shares (given this subreddit considers Tilray ownership the equivalent to having venereal disease), or even make a post on here...I found last week's noise regarding Tilray's Q report rather intriguing (actually disappointing) Some are claiming it as a "pump and dump". I saw no evidence of increased volume both before or after earnings. There was certainly no major price movement. The after market gain of 10% was (as is most after and pre market action) not representative. As a long term Tilray shareholder I was not expecting much, and the report was pretty much a "meh" ("meh" meaning neither really good or really bad). Yesterday Tilray ended the day slightly green on low volume. Meh. The entire sector is trading low volume as there is really nothing of interest until we get more clarity on S3. Although I consider some of the Tilray hate here bordering on pathological, there is no doubt that Irwin Simon needs to be held more accountable in terms of dilution. That being said, I am expecting there will be some sort of offering when S3 is formalized in order for Tilray to acquire a MSO to facilitate medical. The hemp restrictions still need to play out. I suspect something will be put in place before Nov 2026 that affords some sort of regulated atmosphere. I sold a lot of my weedstocks last week and bought some beaten down oil shares. That drop of WTI to 55USD was artificial. It did not surprise me to see the price of a barrel of oil bounce back the next day. Unfortunately, unlike oil companies, weedstocks really do not have any sort of barometer other than the rather binary S3/no S3...and that is all going to depend upon a Trump tweet or Pam Bondi press release. I hate that weedstocks investing has come down to depending upon a Republican fix...because we all appreciate it will be based upon what works best for them...I just hope Jared Kushner's company is loading up on MSOs.

okiewxchaser

WTI up almost 5% That’s what we want to see

Sanpaku

US shale producers problems are OPEC opening spigots to maintain market share and punish Kazakhstan, high decline rates. and running out of drill sites (75% of the good ones have already been completed). Venezuela's incremental production is like that of deep Alberta oil sands. Similar asphalt like petroleum (bitumen), requiring twin well bores (one for steam, one for production), steam injection for years so the the bitumen will flow to the production bores, and either expensive diluent or hydrocracking treatment to flow through pipelines. Venezuela's Orinoco oil sands will be *more expensive* to produce than Alberta's, as there's poor road infrastructure, no local source of low cost stranded natural gas to generate steam (instead, some of the product is used) or offer diluent (condensate and NGLs). And, of course a hostile populace, with either insurgency or assassinations of oil workers. OPEC+ decisions and the global economy matter now. Venezuela doesn't matter for 5-10 years. Those Orinoco oil sands won't be produced at larger than present scale until producers have a futures curve north of 80 or 90 per barrel. In 2026, WTI will probably see the 40s, given all the signs of global recession. Bad for *all* oil producers, but also a buying opportunity for some. I'm planning an entry then with a focus on offshore W. Africa conventional oil (EGY), lower cost/less exploited shale in Argentina (VIST), and Canadian oil sands (CNQ, the clear leader, and GFR, sort of a back door into Strathcona, secretly my favorite oil play).

Warspit3

We can refine it after its mixed with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to lighten it up. WTI is too light by itself for most uses of crude, you'll mostly just get gasoline and diesel out of it. By mixing with the Venezuelan heavy stuff, they'll get a lot more by-products than just fuel. It's still a bullshit situation though.

Disastrous_Rent_6500

If AI pops or tech crashes, people rush to real assets as a hedge just like the dot com bubble. Energy stocks are not just LNG and uranium price trackers. Because WTI is not responding to the AI boom at all, anything related to WTI will hedge against the AI bubble

_hiddenscout

Not an oil expert, but i mean is there any benefit to companies investing into VZ right now with WTI being so low? I feel like that's the big question. I wonder what the break even rates are for it and if it makes sense for companies to even want to invest the Capex. Feels like any of the moves around something like CNQ would be just narrative based at this point, since it would probably take years to actually impact any business. I still find NFLX so tempting, might pull the trigger soon. I bought some THR, SANM, PATH calls and TOITF this morning.

h1zchan

They could only sell to the black market before, due to sanctions. Now they can sell to the international market, if Exxon/Chevron took over. More supply in the international market means lower WTI price?

h1zchan

Already priced in. Exxon and Chevron already had their run. WTI might actually decline a little going forward because of increased supply.

LongjumpingIN

False. You are looking at old data. Production costs are down over 40% since 2015. Examples: Major Producers: The top five Canadian oil sands companies can break even at WTI prices between roughly $41-$43/barrel, notes BNN Bloomberg. Marginal Costs: Some projects, like Cenovus's Christina Lake, report extremely low marginal costs (around $8/barrel).

_hiddenscout

That's if they even want to to invest. There are still so many unknowns and what is the benefit to these companies of bringing more oil online when the WTI is low. Even with CVX, their assets are so old and so long ago, i don't even think that will give them any benefit.

WickOfDeath

It is actually guesswork. Fundamentally I think the oil facilities in Venezuela lack 15-20 years of maintenance. Before Chevron or any other operator/owner can hike production there are some billions to spend for maintenance. That will eat into margins except the US gouverment will sponsor this.. that would be my gamble, but till now nothing is decided or even planned. Further the Venezoelan oil can be processed only by some refineries becuase it is very sour oil... that's more expensive than processing WTI and with the current oil prices nearing the 55 dollar mark... profits are also hard to generate.

DrestinBlack

Some pushback here, from a markets and execution standpoint. First, the infrastructure point actually argues against a rapid oil shock. Venezuela’s upstream and midstream assets aren’t just old — they’re degraded, cannibalized, and understaffed. Even with capital, sanctions relief, and Western service companies, production recovery is measured in years, not quarters. This isn’t a light-switch event. Oil markets care about near-term marginal barrels, not theoretical capacity five years out. Second, on crack spreads: yes, heavy sour crude discounts benefit complex refiners in principle. But refiners don’t capture that upside automatically. Heavy crude still requires stable supply, blending infrastructure, and regulatory clearance. U.S. refiners already optimized around Canadian heavy, Mexican Maya, and other sour streams. Venezuelan barrels would compete with those, not magically add incremental margin without displacing something else. Third, logistics aren’t as frictionless as suggested. Sanctions removal doesn’t instantly restore insurance, financing, port operations, or long-term contracts. “Ghost tanker” flows disappearing doesn’t mean clean tanker flows appear overnight — counterparties, compliance departments, and shipping insurers move cautiously. Markets price certainty, not hypotheticals. Fourth, the shale impact is overstated. Permian producers aren’t uniformly unprofitable below $50 WTI anymore — breakevens have fallen materially through efficiency gains and high-grading. More importantly, shale is flexible. Capex adjusts faster than offshore or state-run producers. If Venezuelan barrels pressure prices, shale slows drilling; it doesn’t collapse. Finally, from an investing perspective, the biggest mistake here is treating this as a supply shock trade rather than a long-duration optionality story. Companies like Schlumberger or Halliburton might see upside — but only after contracts, political stability, and funding are in place. That’s not a 2025 earnings story. Bottom line: Venezuelan normalization is structurally bullish for certain assets over a multi-year horizon, but the idea that it meaningfully rewires crack spreads, tanker routes, or WTI pricing in the near term is overstated. Markets discount timelines, and this one is long.

joe4942

WTI green. Okay, some social media influencer takes over the weekend looking really silly now. Goes to show how few people truly understand energy.

_hiddenscout

Kind of an interesting thing when you think about it. The country is already highly sanctioned and WTI is at like 57.2 as of now. Seems like this is going to hurt Russia/China/Iran than anything else, especially if there is no retaliation from anyone.

DynamoManiac

Too many to count. There's two key characteristics that differentiate: 1) density, 2) sulfur content. Density ranges from extra light to extra heavy. If you saw images of them, at one end of the spectrum it's almost transparent and flows like any liquid. At the other end is basically tar and needs to be heated to flow. Sulfur ranges from sweet (little to no) to sour (heavy sulfur). Each producing basin is different and can have differences within a basin at different depths. The market benchmarks everyone knows are West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent (North Sea). Outside of that, you've got a long list of lesser known benchmark prices: Dubai, Urals, Bonny Light, etc, etc

HeftyBox3580

Brent crude costs $60-61 a barrel and WTI costs $57-58 a barrel. Good luck selling your oil for $90 a barrel that costs double to refine and has less output

FuckingJPMAlgos

ChatGPT told me that this thing will result in Crude going up 20% for the next 3 months cause thats what fucktards expect. In the long term like 1 yr or so crude may eventually come down by 20%. What do you regards think happens to WTI over 3 months and 1 year? I thought this would have brought down CPI but it does not according to GPT.

Late_Description3001

One very real scenario is that the us moves in to take some Venezuelan oil. OPEC doesn’t like that, so they release some more Russian oil or something and get prices into the low low 50s hi 40s. Then American production starts to scale back and all your stocks go to shit. This is not a good play with WTI floating just dollars above the American profitability point.

Narrow-Ad-7856

No, it will take many many years for Venezuela's oil infrastructure to be repaired. Companies like Chevron will profit but over the long term having access to Venezuela's oil will likely dampen the price of WTI. Oil deserves a place in your portfolio, but going all in on it won't make you a millionaire. That ship sailed in 2020.

PurpleReign123

Dude, In theory, US oil companies are to be big beneficiaries of the Venezuela oil grab. But things are not so simple: 1. Infrastructure in V is very bad. Massive investments needed to expand current production and these are likely to take years, before any benefits for the likes of majors such as Chevron and Exxon can be seen. Near-term, the likes of SLB and HAL, being the sellers of shovels, are the best bets. 2. Immediate term, current V production can now be released into the unsanctioned global crude oil market. This has the effect of lowering crude oil prices further, and of course negatively impacting producers such as Chevron, Exxon and US shale producers. 3. The vast majority of country’s production and reserves are the lower-quality heavy, sour crude, which sells in the market **below** WTI. Hence less profitable for those involved. Happy punting, albeit don’t get your hopes too high.

Kitchen-Safety4218

The Orinoco’s decay is a structural death spiral. Because private equity remembers the 2007 expropriations, capital won't flow without sovereign guarantees. Gulf Coast refiners will see margins decouple as heavy feedstock returns. So, if WTI breaches fifty dollars, the Permian's high-cost tier becomes a stranded asset. History shows OPEC+ won't provide a floor.

37366034

You think this will really spike WTI prices?

corundum9

Almost all major oil companies or oil service companies are up ~10% since mid June. WTI is down 16% in the same timeframe. It's been a trend, not just isolated to Friday's sector rotation.

MikeLosesMoneyAllDay

What are you talking about? Canada has 4million barrels of oil a day to give to the US...at a discount to WTI prices, at the exact grade that majority of US refineries like... Also, those oil reserves in the ground in V have been terrible mismanaged. It'll take months, if not years to get those barrels flowing; which will have zero impact on supply dynamics affecting diesel in the US by March...

luv2block

Friday was weird in the markets. WTI was down, but canadian oil producers were way up... like Cenovus (heavy crude producer) was up 4%. I don't see this as being good for Canadian oil, but maybe I'm missing something and it will be.

nopigscannnotlookup

But for oil specific majors, it’s unusual unless there is a catalyst like oil prices moving, which there wasn’t. In fact, both Brent and WTI closed in the red (slightly lower). There wasn’t roughly a ~2-3% increase among the super majors. If you follow big oil closely, you’ll know those are significant increases are given lower crude prices

Celticsmoneyline

I just bought WTI calls

kim82352

#### **\. The "Heavy Oil" War: Venezuela vs. Canada​** This is the strongest point of your analysis. * **Oil is not just Oil:** Global benchmarks like **Brent** (North Sea) or **WTI** (USA) are *light, sweet* crude. * **Venezuela & Canada:** Both primarily produce **heavy, sour crude**. * **The Buyer:** Refineries in the US Gulf Coast (Texas/Louisiana) are technically specialized to process this cheaper heavy oil. The Problem for Canada: In recent years, while Venezuela was offline due to sanctions, the USA imported almost all of its heavy oil from Canada (Western Canadian Select \- WCS). Canada essentially held a monopoly on the US Gulf refineries. If Venezuelan oil (the *Merey* grade) returns: 1. It competes **directly** with Canadian WCS. 2. Venezuela has a shorter transport route (ship) compared to Canada’s pipelines/rail. 3. This suppresses the price of *Canadian* oil more than the global market price (Brent). #### **\. Currency Reaction: Why USDCAD Should Rise​** Your logic for the forex market is absolutely sound: 1. **Supply Shock:** More oil on the market $\\rightarrow$ Oil price (WTI) trends weaker. 2. **CAD Weakness:** The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a "Petro-currency." If oil falls, the CAD falls. 3. **Double Blow for Canada:** The CAD suffers twice. * First, due to the generally lower oil price. * Second, due to the **WCS Discount**. If Canadian oil loses value relative to US oil (because Venezuela steals market share), Canada's "Terms of Trade" deteriorate massively. **Currency Conclusion:** * **USDCAD (Long):** If the CAD weakens and the USD remains stable (or strengthens, as the US is a consumer of cheaper oil), this pair rises. * **EURCAD (Long):** Here too, the rate rises if the CAD falls.

ChampagneWastedPanda

Bro, just because heavy sour is fucking piss and WTI is the light and sweet princess, doesn't mean that those refineries in Houston are not set up to continually refine them. We have to keep feeding the beast. And shipping in heavy sour from Canada isn't as easy as taking over an entire country by force, whilst pissing off Iran, China and Russia

kim82352

So I asked Gemini 3 Pro this: ### **My Question​** "**Regarding the recent Maduro arrest and the planned US measures—such as Chevron having been expropriated years ago and that possibly (?) more (heavy (?)) oil is entering the circulation of (Western (?)) nations, meaning oil grades like WTI or Brent should fall due to increased supply (right?), so that EURCAD or USDCAD should then rise because the CAD (Canada) is heavily dependent on oil exports (?). How do you see this?**" --- ### **Gemini 3 Pro Answer​** Your deduction is **exceptionally sharp**, and the economic chain of causality (Geopolitics $\\rightarrow$ Commodity Supply $\\rightarrow$ Currency Reaction) is largely correct. The point regarding **Heavy Crude** is the crucial detail that many overlook, but which is extremely relevant for Canada (CAD). Here is the detailed analysis of your thesis in the context of current events: #### **1\. The Baseline: Maduro, Chevron, and Sanctions​** You mentioned two important premises: * **Maduro Arrest/Regime Change:** The recent news regarding a regime change acts as a "Game Changer." It signals to the markets the end of the strictest sanctions. * **Chevron & Expropriation:** A small correction here: Chevron was *not* fully expropriated like ExxonMobil or ConocoPhillips were years ago. Chevron was the only US company that remained in the country via a special license (GL 41\) to recoup debts. * **Why this matters:** Since Chevron is *already on the ground* and knows the infrastructure, they can ramp up production much faster than a company entering from scratch. They are the "lever" to bring the oil to the West. #### **2\. The "Heavy Oil" War: Venezuela vs. Canada​** This is the strongest point of your analysis. * **Oil is not just Oil:** Global benchmarks like **Brent** (North Sea) or **WTI** (USA) are *light, sweet* crude. * **Venezuela & Canada:** Both primarily produce **heavy, sour crude**. * **The Buyer:** Refineries in the US Gulf Coast (Texas/Louisiana) are technically specialized to process this cheaper heavy oil. The Problem for Canada: In recent years, while Venezuela was offline due to sanctions, the USA imported almost all of its heavy oil from Canada (Western Canadian Select \- WCS). Canada essentially held a monopoly on the US Gulf refineries. If Venezuelan oil (the *Merey* grade) returns: 1. It competes **directly** with Canadian WCS. 2. Venezuela has a shorter transport route (ship) compared to Canada’s pipelines/rail. 3. This suppresses the price of *Canadian* oil more than the global market price (Brent). #### **3\. Currency Reaction: Why USDCAD Should Rise​** Your logic for the forex market is absolutely sound: 1. **Supply Shock:** More oil on the market $\\rightarrow$ Oil price (WTI) trends weaker. 2. **CAD Weakness:** The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is a "Petro-currency." If oil falls, the CAD falls. 3. **Double Blow for Canada:** The CAD suffers twice. * First, due to the generally lower oil price. * Second, due to the **WCS Discount**. If Canadian oil loses value relative to US oil (because Venezuela steals market share), Canada's "Terms of Trade" deteriorate massively. **Currency Conclusion:** * **USDCAD (Long):** If the CAD weakens and the USD remains stable (or strengthens, as the US is a consumer of cheaper oil), this pair rises. * **EURCAD (Long):** Here too, the rate rises if the CAD falls. #### **4\. Risks in Your Thesis (The Time Factor)​** One aspect you must consider is the **time lag**: * **State of Facilities:** The Venezuelan oil industry (PDVSA) is extremely degraded. It will take months, if not years, to lift production from the current \~800k-900k barrels/day back to the former 2-3 million. * **Psychology vs. Reality:** The market trades *expectations*. The mere *news* (Maduro gone $\\rightarrow$ sanctions gone) is often enough to immediately depress oil prices and weaken the CAD, long before the first additional barrel of oil actually flows. #### **Summary & Strategy​** You have **correctly identified** the correlations. * **The Scenario:** Maduro gone \+ Chevron pumps \= More heavy oil. * **The Loser:** Canada (WCS oil price and CAD currency). * **The Trade:** Long USDCAD or Long EURCAD is the logical consequence. The correlation is historically strong: When oil prices fall, USDCAD rises almost in sync. Since Canada is no longer the "only available" heavy oil supplier for the USA, the CAD loses its strategic premium.

DueCompany4790

Do you not remember Biden doing [this](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60936468)? >Mr Biden promised further action to boost US output, saying the release would "serve as \[a\] bridge until the end of the year when domestic production ramps up". He called for companies to pay extra if they choose not to use oil wells on land they lease from the government, as well as investments to speed up the adoption of greener energy sources. The price of WTI hit a peak $132 in 2022, rising from $11 in 2020. Supply-chain issues were definitely a factor, but so was oil.

Disastrous_Rent_6500

Exactly, honestly this will do nothing to energy markets. WTI might drop a bit due to the news

Voigte90

Oil price (WTI/Brent futures): A massive jump is expected. In over-the-counter trading, the oil price has already risen by over 8%. Traders fear short-term supply disruptions but hope that Venezuelan reserves will be opened up in the long term. Defense stocks: Indications for Monday point to a 5-10% gain for stocks such as Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. Gold & Bitcoin: Both assets are currently acting as safe havens. Bitcoin rose nearly 4% within an hour of the Truth Social post, while gold is approaching new highs. Currencies: The US dollar is appreciating sharply against the euro and Latin American currencies (especially the Colombian peso) as investors seek safety in the dollar.

damn_it19

Long WTI? Venezuela has heavy crude, the kind of crude most refineries in us can process. On the other hand US mainly extracts light crude through fracking.

FarrisAT

Energy Index is up 3% Natural Gas and WTI? Down. Do not apply logic to stocks.

salty0waldo

Energy feels like such a weird area this year. I do agree that WTI/Brent will have a tough year. Like, Permian E&P's should continue to see pressures with low WTI (with their breakeven in the mid 50's). The two big U.S. vertically integrated names should be OK as they have a ton of different exposures (oxy-blends, natural gas, carbon capture, etc.). The refiners may do well if the crack spread stays favorable for them but they had a strong year in 2025. Personally I like natural gas, particularly the midstream operators (long-term volume and take-or-pays), field compression and compressor services. Like KMI/WMB for midstream, KGS/AROC for compression (AROC has some field services), and NGS/EFXT for compressor services.

95Daphne

Electricity may be getting pricy due to data centers, but I'm referring to traditional energy such as WTI and NG, which the WTI part is pretty low. I'll eat my shirt if the price of oil sees anything above $70 before the end of this year. Daddy Trump usually gets everything he wants, and what he wants is oil in the basement to continue to play tariff chicken (which will be attempted in a different way after the IEEPA is struck down).

ModernR3volution

ZENA drone company continuation. ARM & WTI down here.

Garbage-Disposal-938

and crude: WTI below $56

Mistery_White_boy

I'm doing exactly the same thing as you: I'm selling silver in small slots and distributing them across currently undervalued commodities, such as oil, potash, nickel, and eggs. I have silver at an average of $22/oz, and I think it's prudent to be aware that things that go up, then go down. You're talking about a safe haven, but to be honest, I think it's better to have a warehouse of WTI than a piece of metal.

merckx3697

This is a sign to buy WTI.

Melodic-Method1926

Commodities like oil itself is volatile and then you add an equity layer on top and you have insane beta. I would never play junior oils or super small cap co’s when oil prices are low, unless I’m seriously nuts or have insane conviction of a very sharp move coming fast. OXY, XOM are good ways to get exposure even if oil prices stay low for longer because of balance sheet strength. When XOM was $30, everyone yapped about the divvy being cut and it never was. Nobody was buying the stock at a 9% div yield. Wild. I don’t think WTI sees $30/bbl again. Maybe I’m wrong, but the downside is probably limited with OPEC being able to meaningfully adjust supply at prices lower than current. Plus, USD weakness, geopolitical tensions & what looks like a broad rally in commodities will help to the upside. 2020 - pretty sure it was metals (precious & base) that rallied first, other commodities followed. Looking like a similar set-up.

Melodic-Method1926

I bought OXY during COVID at $18 and sold it at $70+. I also bought XOM in the $30s and sold at $100. I vividly remember being down 10-15% even at those beat up prices when WTI was in the $20s/bbl range lol. Energy is wildly hard to time, but rewards patience. But honestly - looking at commodities across the board - precious metals + copper in particular, we are probably in for a commodity supercycle again, akin to the one during COVID times. WTI hit like $125/bbl then. No positions yet but planning to load up on OXY in my retirement account. gl!!

TheCuriousBread

Of course I COULD be wrong. This is how. If China enters a depression (not just a slowdown), demand drops faster than US Shale can cut supply. WTI could hit $40. If WTI drops to $50 and Rig Counts don't drop, the EIA's "production resilience" theory is correct, and we are about to lose our lunch. If you are going to make this trade, you're gonna have to look at China and US rig counts very closely.

DrElkSnout

WTI absolutely tanking.

Brilliant-Lab546

Not really. You can design an oil refinery to make almost any type of refined product that you want. However, the yield will vary. Light Sweet crude gives you more diesel from simple distillation. That is why Brent and WTI are priced at a premium. You can easily convert them to petrol, diesel, naptha and LPG with ease using the basic distillation process. Sour crude however will give you more tar and marine fuel oil rather than diesel. The yield of lighter products via the usual distillation process is usually very low. That is why Canadian and American refineries have hydrocrackers, catalytic crackers and fluid cokers to turn heavy sour crude into lighter hydrocarbons.

TheCuriousBread

The EIA supply glut narrative is dominating the market right now, I agree on the long term CNQ is solid but for the next 2 years, the market has convinced itself oil is gonna be lower for longer forgetting there's a difference between WTI and WCS. We need to see the spread tighten for CNQ to climb, for that we need geopolitics and China to come to Canada to make a deal now that Venezuela is being blockaded. It won't last forever. Once Venezuela is resolved and the oil comes back we are right back to the EIA trade.

RamblurGambler

I just want a weekend with a spicy little torta, and to make money on WTI

drew-gen-x

I've been looking at the gold/wti crude oil ratio. It historically sits b/w a range of 17-21 going back to 1985. This means over the last 40 years on average you could buy b/w 17-21 barrels of WTI crude oil for 1 ounce of gold. The high for the last 40 years was Covid when the ratio was above 120, but that was an outlier as WTI briefly went negative. The low I could find was 6.5 in August 2008. We are currently sitting around 57, meaning you can buy 57 barrels of WTI crude oil for 1 ounce of gold. I've always been a big believer in gold and the market might be repricing gold after 2 decades of price suppression. However, if you are able to hold crude oil stocks over a 2-10 year time frame I think this might be a once in 40 year buy for crude oil & the big crude oil stocks. [https://inflationdata.com/articles/comparing-oil-gold/](https://inflationdata.com/articles/comparing-oil-gold/)

slimkay

There's several week delay for oil (WTI) price to be reflected at the pump. [Overall, gas prices \(at the pump\) are cheapest they've been all year.](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price)

Tiny_Standard_5358

Hey there, I have a question. Don't you think it's more profitable for the United States to refine Venezuelan oil, and that's why they want it so much? They can get heavy oil at a significant discount compared to global benchmarks for other types of crude. As you rightly point out, most of the world doesn't use Venezuelan oil or can't find a way to utilize it because they lack the refining capacity that the United States has. Additionally, I believe about 70% of refineries in the U.S. are built to process heavy oil and are better suited for this type of crude. My point is that the steep discount on Venezuelan crude can make it the most cost-effective option for the U.S., even if the refining process itself is more energy-intensive. Even though the U.S. is a major producer of light crude, like the famous WTI, there needs to be a balance. That's why importing heavy oil is crucial to utilize that 70% of U.S. refineries. In short, it's more profitable for them to import heavy crude for their existing refineries than to modernize them to process only the light crude they produce domestically.

CQscene

Remember that guy recently running around saying he wanted to trade compute like WTI & Brent

No_Mammoth7944

totally we all saw the WTI futures go to -$60 in Covid

Drauren

Taking delivery of several thousand barrels of WTI crude.

Alert_Weird6893

The real question is: WHEN will the oil price go up again? I need to know this to time my buys. u/El_G0rdo Is right because the supply grows hence the drop in price. The only odd thing, indeed, is the continuous inflation. Inflation however will lag oil prices a bit so it should stop soon. Not betting on deflation too much though one can hope. If the oil supply is growing but demand stays stable or grows a little then economy, in theory, should be fine. It is just some weird cyclical stuff with the production going on. Some say the price is pushed down to end the war between Russia and Ukraine but I am not buying into that too much. I am not happy about people having tough times but if people lose their families as a function of WTI price then maybe the family was not meant to be.

niofalpha

What’s the play to invest in Oil? The oil companies? Just buy futes on WTI or Brent? (They scare me) Is there like a GLD but for Oil?

Ninjapenguinart

OPEC is producing 3% more than they were last year. They can cut but I don't think they will. Their constituents need to produce to keep revenue up. Saudi has lost control, especially after Russia went to war and desperately need to produce barrels to fund their quickly depleting war chest. Meanwhile Canada and US oil production continues to grow year over year and refiners are finding ways to get those barrels that were displaced years ago. Meanwhile US gasoline demand is dropping, diesel and kerosene somewhat flat. That indicates a cooling market. This is why WTI dropped more than Brent YTD. We are in peak butane blending season, which will temporarily see gas prices drop. Biggest driver for recent sharp drop in gas prices. Crude isn't lower enough for US and Canada to stop producing but there will be stabilizing. If we get to $40/bbl then there will be stoppages and OPEC can bring it back to $50 to prevent restarts. That's OPEC's hope with a weakening global economy. Oddly enough best for OPEC and worst for US and Canada. Keeps inflation down though.

gringodingo69

Yeah, part of most oil contracts is also a delivery location. If you have to pick up that oil and send it elsewhere, or have to send it to the incinerator, you’ve got a hefty cost to pay. It wasn’t a global negative price event from what I remember either, I think it was only short dated WTI futures. It’s true oil wells don’t respond well to being shut in, but, most facilities should be able to flare(burn) far more than enough oil to manage excess. If it comes down to it, I couldn’t imagine any producing assets would choose to overtop or split a tank over shutting in wells.

StaysAwakeAllWeek

>If they could just drop off the barrels, They in fact will drop off the barrels. There's a large facility specifically for doing this for WTI futures. And when this happened it was full. That's kinda the point.

AKBonesaw

WTIU. 3x leveraged WTI play.

PercTrader

Isn’t it crazy that the WTI oil crash and the Liberation Day crash both occurred on March 31st 5 years apart

ThatBlinkingRedLight

It would have been leaked by congress since they have to vote on it. And the market would have fallen already and WTI would be up not down. You think Nancy is not gonna have a play on this? Her husband is using every last minute

Extra_Rest2372

Yep, no clue why the comment above has so many upvotes haha. Even the most bearish forecasters are expecting oil demand to peak way past 2030. OPEC producing strong, US producing strong despite prices... WTI short interest is massive right now. If there is any significant headline traders will have to cover.

Puzzled_Cream1798

WTI

MechanicalDan1

Oil will keep going down to offset inflation showing up on CPI and PCE. POTUS said 6 months ago he wanted $50. He's getting $50 WTI. All part of the plan.

Sanpaku

Venezuela's remaining oil is a lot like the Athabasca oil sands of Alberta. 10 years development before meaningful new production emerges. However, OPEC+ punishing Kazakhstan for overproducing + global recession that started mid 2025 has created a brief window of a 4 MMbbl/d global surplus, a window where an elective war against Venezuela doesn't immediately spike oil to the triple digits. Morally vile, but everyone in the current US administration and international oil companies that might benefit are morally flexible. Those who study field depletion know that oil will be in the three digits by 2030, and oily E&Ps will be among the best investments for the latter half of the decade. Still early for an entry, as WTI can fall further and most E&Ps will be operating at a GAAP accounting loss in 2026. But with bounces from 5 year lows, look for those selling at the lowest multiple to revenues with decent organic expansion opportunities.

Sanpaku

Watching closely. It's a good way to deploy gains from gold miners. But WTI will hit the 40s, E&Ps will be at post 2020 lows, before I enter.

Artistic-Western6342

Ford's pivot from pure EVs to hybrids/extended-range EVs is a major strategic shift, impacting investors and commodity markets: Ford (F): Shares are around $13.65 - $13.75 today. The $19.5 billion charge for the EV pivot is a hit, but raising 2025 EBIT guidance to $7 billion signals investor confidence in a more profitable, diversified strategy. Lithium: Not falling out of favor. Battery-grade Lithium Carbonate is around 75,000 CNY/ton (approx. $12,011-$13,572 USD/mt). Prices have recently increased, with Chinese suppliers hiking by 15% due to demand from *all* electrified vehicles, including hybrids. Uranium: Currently at $78.40 per pound. Its demand is primarily tied to nuclear power, so Ford's automotive shift has little direct impact on its market. Oil: WTI Crude is around $55.96 - $56.23 per barrel; Brent around $60.30 per barrel. A move to hybrids/EREVs means continued gasoline consumption, potentially supporting oil demand compared to a full EV world, though global oversupply is a larger current factor.

Long_duk_dong_duck

WTI crude oil futures

Big_Wave9732

You'll really be liking life if WTI drops to under 50 next year like the Feds think it will.

MyNameis_Not_Sure

Smh you don’t get it Permian oil operations have to see WTI prices above $60 per barrel to have a chance of good profit. A glut of oil means oversupply conditions, which puts downward pressure on oil prices. Forecasts are from $52-58 per barrel for much of next year. That’s gonna make paying off all those new rigs pretty difficult…. Many rigs may even have to shutdown rather than operate at loss…..

RandomRedditor5689

Buying an option on the ETF (eg USO) is buying the option on a rolling of short dated futures strategy. Buying a long dated WTI futures option is buying an option explicitly on physical crude deliverable on that future date. Those are two VERY different things.

RandomRedditor5689

You can buy an option on the Dec27 WTI future ... if thats what you mean.

RandomRedditor5689

There are long dated options on commodity futures (eg WTI) due to the nature of the market ... but I don't think its got much traction on equity index futures.

jacobzacr

u/black_cat42 Thanks for the write up. Have 2 questions and keen to get your view. 1) In slide 10 of earnings deck they talk about some acquisition in first half of 2026. Any idea what this is ? 2) WTI Crude is hovering around $60. If it goes below 60, how long do you think company can operate with the current financials ?

Familiar_Gazelle_467

Long WTI short TSLA

salty0waldo

I don’t mean to discourage you, OXY is a great company. It is more of myself not trusting my ability to see the bottom lol. Plus, I’m fairly overweight natural gas so I don’t want more exposure there. I’d rather get more solar and storage exposure now. They are great at ROIC next to Diamondback. Both would be the names I’d jump into if I wanted that exposure. There is a ton of talk of peak oil now, so usually in the past that is a bullish sign lol. I don’t recall what their breakevens are, but I think it’s near 55 for WTI.

salty0waldo

I avoid upstream oil plays personally. Too much boom and bust with WTI dependence. I stick with the vertically integrated, CVX is my preferred. I prefer pure play natural gas names. Upstream would be EQT. On the midstream side I like KMI, although WMB is solid as well. I like KGS for compression services as they are pure natural gas play in the Permian only, focusing on high horsepower, high margin equipment. Their debt level I am not thrilled for but it’s a capital intensive business. I might get out and jump over to NGS. NXT is a great company, I just never pulled the trigger. Might add some but not sure what is a good entry, see it’s down a bit today.

Savings-Yesterday635

Being scared of inflation is understandable but withdrawing your ENTIRE investment into cash goes pretty hard against that concern given how your purchasing power will be eaten away as cash. Personally (and I’ve debated it given current valuations) I’d have sold a goooood chunk of the direct stocks and slammed a good portion of it into VOO, WTI etc. you’d drop with a bubble popping but not in the same way and then you’d still have cash to drop in if and when the market tanks.

a-l-3-x-a

Jk I’m short WTI and Brent oil WE GONNA DRILL BABY DRILLLLLL

a-l-3-x-a

I need WTI crude oil to dip please and thank you regards

Wayne_Kurr_1

ER tomorrow mornning, short float 18%, WTI spot lower goes directly to bottom line that's my take on what happened today

TrashPanda_924

I’ve been watching the Brent - TI spread pretty closely. Only thing support crude prices over the last few days are the Russian sanctions. If not for those, I’m guessing we’d be at $56/bbl WTI.

CumomEileen

Sold my WTI call so prepare for it to moon 

Fit_Combination6988

WTI acting up... I don't want the 'inflation is back' narrative

Fit_Combination6988

Yo WTI slow down bud

29InchWaistOrStarve

WTI probably on its way to 45-50 before oil stocks bottom with it

Interesting-Sun4594

Fair concern, small cap produces like EONR are always highly sensitive to commodity swings. That said, I'm not that bearish long term. Global inventories are tighetning, U.S. shale growth is palteauing, and geopolitical tensions keep a floor under prices. Most forecasts still point to an $70-$85 WTI range through 2026, which will make EONR very profitable given their under $42 breakeven

DarkMarksPlayPark

Pop WTI oil, $100 a barrel end of the week

DarkMarksPlayPark

Ukraine has been bombing russian refineries WTI needs 80 a barrel to make a profit Opex+ can't sustain low prices due to economic pressure $100 a barrel next week

Dubb18

>US can't use they oil they produce. That is mostly true due to various factors (economics, geographic, infrastructure, preference, etc), but it does use some. Otherwise, US producers would either export all or put it into storage. The broader picture is that since oil is globally traded (and speculated), a reduction in global supply will affect the entire market. Just that WTI and Brent will see a widened price gap. >No one is going to invest BILLIONS building new refineries on a dying resource. I agree, no energy company has an interest in building a new refinery. It's an investment that doesn't make sense from the standpoint that they'd be spending a lot of money to drive their margins down. At best, they may increase the capacity in existing refineries (if possible) and flex that capacity with respect to what the market is doing.

29InchWaistOrStarve

WTI might touch 45-50 before any kind of sustained bounce. Might buy a mini around that price. Still think oil has more room to fall. Recession imminent

a-l-3-x-a

Alright let’s be real here, where is the floor for oil… WTI just loves to keep drilling this week