WTI

Sufficient_Habit5091

WTI is almost $60s bro. I'm not saying it's an awesome thing but you have to at least brace for the possibility of total US surrender and humiliation.

Spy300

>U.S.'S BESSENT: TREASURY HAS ISSUED TEMPORARY 60-DAY GENERAL LICENSE AUTHORIZING IRANIAN OIL PRODUCTION AND SALES AFTER PRODUCTIVE SWITZERLAND TALKS ✅️ Do a fake deal for 90 days ✅️ Setup task force to redefine inflation ✅️ Get Rates cuts ✅️ Resume War ✅️ Send WTI to 150 This is how you devalue your debt via **financial repression**.

roll0ver

I use FRED, here's my dashboard uses scripting so I wouldn't expect anyone else to use it, but I can share the script if you want to build your own. |**Improving / easing**|**Deteriorating / tightening**|**Review manually**|**Blank / not loaded**| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |**10**|**5**|**4**|**0**| ||||||||| |**Factor**|**Indicator**|**Latest Date**|**Latest Value**|**3M Change**|**12M Change**|**Signal**|**Notes**| |Labor|Unemployment rate|2026-05-01|4.30|0.00|0.00|Flat|Labor slack. Watch rapid 3M increases.| |Labor|Nonfarm payrolls|2026-05-01|159001.00|0.26%|0.32%|Improving / expanding|Payroll employment level. Negative momentum = labor cooling.| |Inflation|CPI|2026-05-01|333.98|2.26%|4.17%|Deteriorating / tightening|Headline consumer inflation index.| |Inflation|Core CPI|2026-05-01|336.12|1.00%|2.82%|Deteriorating / tightening|Consumer inflation excluding food and energy.| |Inflation|PCE price index|2026-04-01|130.90|1.47%|3.77%|Deteriorating / tightening|Broad PCE price index.| |Inflation|Core PCE price index|2026-04-01|129.63|0.93%|3.29%|Deteriorating / tightening|Fed-preferred core inflation gauge.| |Policy|Federal funds rate|2026-05-01|3.63|\-0.01|\-0.70|Improving / easing|Policy rate. Rising = tightening; falling = easing.| |Rates|10Y Treasury yield|2026-06-17|4.49|0.24|0.10|Review manually|Long-rate pressure; context matters.| |Rates|10Y minus 2Y yield curve|2026-06-18|0.27|\-0.24|\-0.17|Review manually|Inversion/re-steepening signal; review manually.| |Credit|High yield OAS|2026-06-17|2.63|\-0.64|\-0.54|Improving / easing|Credit stress spread. Wider = tighter conditions.| |Housing|Housing starts|2026-05-01|1177.00|\-15.02%|\-8.69%|Weakening|New residential construction activity.| |Housing|Building permits|2026-05-01|1413.00|1.44%|\-0.21%|Improving / expanding|Forward-looking housing construction indicator.| |Demand|Retail sales|2026-05-01|763705.00|3.98%|6.88%|Improving / expanding|Nominal retail sales. Pair with inflation for real demand read.| |Growth|Industrial production|2026-05-01|102.65|1.51%|1.67%|Improving / expanding|Manufacturing/industrial momentum.| |Liquidity|M2 money supply|2026-04-01|22804.50|1.67%|4.72%|Review manually|Broad liquidity proxy; review with inflation/rates.| |Energy|WTI crude oil|2026-06-15|84.65|\-11.83%|14.64%|Review manually|Energy inflation/global demand proxy.| |Dollar|Broad dollar index|2026-06-12|119.51|\-0.87%|\-0.55%|Improving / easing|Dollar strength. Sharp rises can tighten global conditions.| |Cycle|NBER recession indicator|2026-05-01|0.00|0.00|0.00|Flat|1 = recession month, 0 = expansion month.|

Weekly_One8412

there will be a massive dump on USO at somepoint... it's still trading at a premium over WTI prices

Lordblack1400

I need WTI to go below 70 by the end of the July - what do you think odds are

Spy300

TRUMP: IF IRAN DEAL NOT DONE IN 60 DAYS, BACK TO BOMBING >u/Spy300 5 points 5 days ago >Do a fake deal >Get 100 bps of rate cuts >Come back 90 days later with NATO >Send WTI to 150 ✅️ This is how you devalue your debt via **financial repression**

Icommandyou

Low key sucks to be oil bull because they are still bombing the strait and WTI is sitting at 77 lol

CODEX_LVL5

Wait until after june 22nd to see if the current WTI oil contract explodes at expiry and takes the economy with it. Then re-evaluate.

Icommandyou

Considering one of the largest SPR release, I am honestly surprised at WTI green

Weekly_One8412

USO has some serious catching up to do with WTI 😡

illinformed-will

WTI 75 tHoU sHaLL nOt pAsS

Sufficient_Habit5091

$75 WTI is wild. I say this as a market bear, goes to show all those doomers that said futures few months out were wrong. And that usually oil traders are pretty smart. They're hired by the biggest companies in the world to manage their inventory. Unlike equities that can get detached from reality, competitive commodities are usually unbelievably efficient at incorporating known information. Close to impossible for retail to gain an edge.

Aggressive_Bit_91

Dude we lost over a billion barrels and we are at $75 WTI nothing is real lmao

Provolone-Jones

WTI is headed for contango, which means the market is no longer pricing a supply shock. I can’t believe my eyes.

No_Cod972

I'm gonna need WTI crude to at least be half of what it is right meow. Thanks

Ok-Thought-9960

Litterally everything i said affects oil even WTI wtf r u smoking my dude 

Weekly_One8412

none of what says matters. the etf is supposed to track WTI prices, which has fallen further

Poptart_Salad

WTI gonna go negative with zero ships traversing the strait yet meanwhile SPY rallies 1 day and then has to burn theta cause omg what if the fed raises rates 25bp one single time later this year?

Weekly_One8412

yeah... now I need USO to be at the same price before war too. dumbass etf is supposed to track WTI...

WordsHappenedHere

Oil is cooked. Look at the December WTI contracts.

PenguinOfB00m

WTI going down is great cause that will restore demand and drain reserves faster

OilBull

I made a lifetimes worth on the way up. I told that sub the timeline to go long was months ago lol. Being long past the literal top of the cycle margins is legit insanity, even if the fucking world is ending. USO was pricing in a level that would see catastrophic demand-side destruction if WTI actually rose to those levels

Weekly_One8412

Big buy wall at 80 for WTI... idk if we will see enough selling to break through without another news announcement.

__nameless____

no u https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/cash:WTI

skimmerguy85

It's gonna be a great week 💪🏽 ***The Tokyo Stock Exchange's Nikkei 225 index rose to an all-time high above 69,000 points on Monday as investors reacted to the news of the long-awaited peace deal between the United States and Iran. The benchmark surged more than 3,600 points, or 5.5 percent, at one point in the morning session. Meanwhile, crude oil prices tumbled after US President Donald Trump's announcement of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Benchmark WTI futures traded in New York fell to the 80-dollar per barrel range at one point, a drop of about 5 percent from last week.*** 🤙🏽😎🤙🏽

Weekly_One8412

Dumbest etf ever… it barely drops and WTI is getting back to normal levels… it should already be at 100!

Provolone-Jones

Going all in on August WTI at $79. Down 14k so far, but I don’t think 🥭 can hurt me anymore. Feel like peace has to be priced in at this point.

illinformed-will

WTI below 70 ain't happening for months pal wake up

LadderAdmirable

Need to open at 760 to have any chance of this not getting sold off . WTI needs to go below 70 for the 4-5% gap up at open on stocks

illinformed-will

Okay oil analyst, when will the traffic resume to the point that buyers will have enough offers to negociate lower price ? Someone need those futures contracts delivered and will pay for it. They can't wait 6 months to see if prices can drop further WTI bouncing 80-90 for months is more likely than dropping back to before all the damages done to ME (and Russia) productions and unlilited traffic through soh Oil companies are gonna print so much in the meanwhile buybacks and dividends increases will have boomers fund flocking with H2 uncertainties For Monday calls on semis, was trying to look further than 2 weeks my bad

Sufficient_Habit5091

WTI was 29 cents away from $70s oil. Basically back to prewar levels. Wild.

illinformed-will

If $80 WTI is the new floor, long XLE after the initial sell off could pay nicely Q4'26 Q1'27 Hope it dives hard to load cheap

Weekly_One8412

Yeah, if that etf followed WTI more closely, it would currently be around 105, and you would have had a chance this week…

Weekly_One8412

Thursday? No chance. WTI down to 83 and USO still above 125. That etf has very sticky pricing, even if oil drops to 75, USO will still probably be at 110.

Provolone-Jones

I wish I was in USO. I’m a proud WTI futures bag holder (much much worse).

Sufficient-Skill9530

Why not just go long oil? WTI is like $85 when we are 4 months into the closure of Hormuz and global SPRs are being drawn down like crazy. Why not just buy some Canadian oil sands producers which trade and a discount to the US? The US needs heavy oil for their refineries but produce very little heavy oil themselves. 

iwasshotbyatigeronce

As USOIL/WTI and the CL's fade - US10Y is going to be the main mover for this market. We can thank 🥭 for a perfect setup for Q3-Q4 2022 V2.0

Weekly_One8412

Another big dump on oil, it’s looking like WTI will go into the 70s. Anyone know why?

Sufficient-Skill9530

No shit. Yet the algos sent WTI and Brent futures down 4%

Icommandyou

WTI committed seppukku on nothing is funny

Spy300

Do a fake deal Get 100 bps of rate cuts Come back 90 days later with nato Send WTI to 150

Icommandyou

WTI fell at one headline although nothing changed and we will run out of SPR soon

-user222

bought a 100$ put on WTI before working out and came back with 2k

No_Feeling920

>USO seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing primarily in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, diesel-heating oil, gasoline, natural gas, and other petroleum-based fuels. From Yahoo Finance. It's not 100% WTI.

FindingZen4

Long USO Sep - Dec calls. Fake announcements of peace for last 3 months haven't materialized, so why would they do so in the next 3 months? Meanwhile, Cushing will hit tank bottoms in early July or sooner, causing panic and WTI price increase. Heavily-shorted USO and general belief that US president will work something out. Iran knows its best option is dragging its feet and waiting out the situation. Meanwhile, the world's oil reserves get to miniumums and oil prices increase.

Spy300

>TRUMP ON IRAN: AT SOME POINT IN NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE, WE WILL BE TAKING KHARG ISLAND As it was scripted >u/Spy300 15 points 1 month ago > - Do a few weeks of a fake ceasefire / peace talks > - Get the puppet fed chair confirmed > - Blow up kharg island / Invade / Start Iranian revolution **<-- (You Are Here)** > - Send WTI to 150 > - Puppet fed chair cuts to 1% >✅️ This is how you devalue your debt via **financial repression**. [[1]](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1sxes3c/what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_april_28_2026/oimpwpg/)

BFLO-Retail

USO is an ETF that tracks West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil. Big funds think oil price is going down and they have sold over 100% USO shares short plus a shitload of oil futures short. Opposite is about to happen and oil is going to up

PenguinOfB00m

Woke up Talks going well Everything is green WTI is <90$ A great day for bols

Apprehensive_Rub3897

Remember, he said we're oil independent and we don't need their oil and Europe needs to figure it out. I personally am shocked WTI isn't $1m per barrel and keeps floating around $90.

Sufficient_Habit5091

I'm a bear but I think Trump is too scared to have WTI above $100.

Provolone-Jones

Operational stress levels hit in July. The current WTI front month contract is a July delivery. We might be early, but we might also be perfectly positioned for a spike in the July contract before expiration.

Spy300

>u/Spy300 15 points 1 month ago > - Do a few weeks of a fake ceasefire / peace talks > - Get the puppet fed chair confirmed > - Blow up kharg island / Invade / Start Iranian revolution **<-- (You Are Here)** > - Send WTI to 150 > - Puppet fed chair cuts to 1% >✅️ This is how you devalue your debt via **financial repression**. >https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1sxes3c/what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_april_28_2026/oimpwpg/ Scripted. >[TRUMP: “I LOVE THE INFLATION”](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1u1xslp/daily_discussion_thread_for_june_10_2026/oqvvoxj/)

PenguinOfB00m

3-10 ships per day went through the strait hugging the north coast. It's a very small additional buffer merely delaying the inevitable by days at best. WTI is low cause strategic reserves are flooding the market, that's all there is to it. By July we're in a 7mb/d deficit.

putinsbloodboy

I should’ve put everything on WTI but I only put a bit. 13% gain

Siriricu20

$WTI just buy oil at this point

SteakEater137

WTI Oil chart is hilarious. Any time it hits 90 it gets immediately slapped down with a vengeance. Someone working overtime here.

Tay_Tay86

WTI back over 90

demonhunterking

In short CPI result will get better soon. WTI crude getting lower and by end of June Iran deal is done

FriedRice2682

>When it comes to the US, we know that their massive domestic production and reserves alone are enough to push them toward near- independence regarding the local import and export of all energy and energy derivatives. US is still dependant on crude import which are priced on an international benchmarks (WTI), of course there's always been a local discount since Canada can't get most of it's oil out. But that changed with the TMX pipeline and its expansion. If for some geopolitical reason the price of crude stay high, there's a good chance Canada will build another pipeline East, but that would take some years. Anyway, as for the reserves, the oil company are saying that at the pace the US is emptying out it's reserves, we could see some problems as soon as early july, because thought it's got 365mb, not all of the reserves can be draw down as the salt wall of the reservoirs could collapse, and there's some level at which the pipeline pressure could be insufficient to sustain the same drawdown quantity. Is the US better positionned than the EU and Asia in this conflict, yes, is it hurting less, yes, does it mean that it doesn't have an impact on the economy, especially if the situation last for months, absolutely not.

Cav829

I'm going to bed. I can't wait to wake up finding out nukes are dropping, an oil-consuming kaiju has appeared in the Persian Gulf, and somehow WTI is down $2/gallon.

ActivatingEMP

> US stops bombing for 1 second > WTI immediately drops below 89 Oil to -40 within 2 months at this rate

whomakesthetendies

WTI still pumping.....

Sufficient_Habit5091

Believe it or not, $80s WTI lol.

ActivatingEMP

WTI already has a sell wall at 90$ despite just dropping below it today lmao

Provolone-Jones

Alright who the fuck is actually selling oil to combat the current spike? The API numbers released today show Cushing (WTI commercial storage) is at 20.9 million barrels, with 20 being the operational stress level and 18 being the tank bottom. And the US is currently bombing Iran. How anyone can possibly be bearish oil is beyond me.

Aggressive_Bit_91

Gonna be comical when all oil ceases to exist and WTI will be $85

ActivatingEMP

More ridiculous is why the fuck WTI is back down to 88 as there is still AT MINIMUM a 2 million barrels deficit in the oil market, even with the largest spr release in history

Icommandyou

It’s been like 100 days of strait closure and WTI is $88, all those strait “experts” in shambles

jrex035

Most energy equities are priced for ~$70 WTI which we haven't seen in 3 months and won't see for years to come. At current prices these companies will have enormous FCF which they'll use for dividends and stock buybacks in addition to paying down debt, which will further improve their profitability. >BTW this includes China which had great demand pre-war and now can stop imports because they literally prepared for this. China cutting imports by ~5m bdp has been one of the most important factors keeping a lid on prices thus far. But it can't last forever either. They're drawing down stockpiles of crude and refined products to the tune of millions of bpd. Sure they have been stockpiles to draw on, but even they can't keep this up for more than a few additional months.

Spy300

>US ECONOMY IS ON THE PRECIPICE OF A RECESSION SAYS MOODY'S TOP ECONOMIST ... Peace deals and rate cuts Then war and WTI 150

illinformed-will

Quick Axios spew another fake headline, WTI is daring to start a bounce !

Icommandyou

I wonder how long can shorting WTI last

amanj41

Every time WTI hits $95 / USO hits $140 they dump it like clockwork lmao. Might as well just sell some weekly $140/145c spreads

Provolone-Jones

I’m trading WTI futures? It’s a 24 hour market.

Tirikemen

Hard to go wrong with a supermajor, unless its BP lol. Some of the larger Permian pure-plays like PR or DVN are also worth looking at. Short-term, anything can happen. Once an agreement is actually reached, there will almost certainly be a temporary spike down on the news. Longer term is a different story. The thing is, at this point inventory levels (commercial and strategic) matter almost as much as the strait does. Inventory is so low, and getting lower, that Brent is probably going to average over $100/bbl all the way through 2027. WTI usually has a \~$5-10 discount to Brent, so you can do the math on that. And that assumes a deal by the end of June. Add $10-15 to the average for every month it takes past that. Also, it will take months to normalize flows through the strait even after it does open. Even if it begins to open by end of the month, good chance flows only reach 80% of pre-war levels by early next year. Probably want to avoid natural gas-heavy names though. As oil activity picks up in the Permian, so will associated gas production (that is gas that is produced incidental to oil). That will push Henry Hub down.

TJMBeav

Forgot to post my moves. Bought "NO" WTI will not close above $93.99 and "YES" the S&P will CLOSE above 7425. Both were right at 1 to 1 when I placed the predictions Probably close them both soon after the open and reload

Psychological_Fly109

Two straits being closed mean twice as many blockades. Bullish AF WTI to 60

Jaded_Drink8872

spy back to 600 and qqq to 500, back to where you belong 🫵🤡 BZ & WTI to 200 or else 🫵🤡

PenguinOfB00m

WTI crossed 95$ The bear argument is that the lies must stop

WSB_Dre

WTI to the moon

illinformed-will

That 4% gap up on WTI... axios gonna have to double shift til open

Equivalent_Map951

WTI Futures will still go down.

Provolone-Jones

Not gonna lie, was very stressed about holding 10 July WTI contracts through the weekend, but you can’t bet against bibi dropping bombs

GrammarNaziii

When I saw the Asian markets overheating (esp with the KOSPI drawing down big early Friday), I immediately sold all of my single stocks but kept the long-term diversified ETFs. Turned out to be a good decision (my stock picking portfolio ain’t that big but still feels good to have made a good call). I feel your macro sense is right - I just don’t know if the market will agree. If, as you say, the fed (or whatever) will just intervene again, what’s the catalyst to give them reasoning to suddenly not do so? Curious what you think oil will do too. It’s been months of no resolution but - weirdly enough - we’re still at relatively low prices for WTI and Brent.

Academic_Rooster_886

praying for a WTI crash over the weekend. It would bring the world and our markets so much prosperity

Subspace13

Think something is going to happen this weekend. Market dump, increase in US Navy flights in the Middle east, Germany travel/evac notice this morning, and no true ceasefire. Not to mention there was a 1-2 minute large injection in WTI oil yesterday at around 1:30PM that let to a $1 increase. Someone knows something.

Vind2

Remember the “price of oil” referenced is the price of WTI crude for delivery in July

Psychological_Fly109

I am so confident that we will not see WTI over $100 that I would be willing to suck all of your big toes if I am wrong

peterpeer9

The year is 2028: - The Strait’s still closed - Trump’s managed to jawbone of the price of WTI crude all the way down to $2 a barrel - Despite the paper price, gas at the pump is $175/gallon - Elon Musk is now worth $38 trillion and accounts for ~65% of global GDP - Regardless, the average annual income in the US has fallen to $10k per year after the Trump coined “Bigly, Very Big. Maybe The Biggest” Financial Crisis devastated the global economy (BVBMTBFC for short) But despite all this, you just got back to the US after your third tour in Iran and this is the week of the month you’re allowed to buy beef and drive a distance greater than 3 miles Life is good

dash_trash4255

WTI will be the next trillion dollar company

amanj41

Yes indeed. Did that this week with USO calls. Did not buy puts tho, was waiting for WTI to cross $100 :/

Academic_Rooster_886

WTI 60 by monday

Happy-Philosophy9211

Oil is down 3% WTI crude

Either-Lie-9000

if we are getting an equity sell-off can we atleast get WTI $105

Leveraged_Lots

Please tell me where to buy crude for $81/bbl today because I see WTI at $95.25/bbl at the time of writing.

AgitatedJump8459

Ok today: need MRVL to pop 20%, MSFT 7%, SMCI 10%, WTI 5% 📬

confused_teabagger

Curious how with Brent and WTI both looking thick, how Dow futes are pumping? What are delusional people hallucinating about why that works?

Repulsive-Floor-3987

I've traded futures the last 17 years, including WTI, and I agree 100% with your analysis and assessment that a spike in oil prices seems inevitable as current inventories are drawn down (including floating). I've argued as much in recent WSB comments [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ts3ub5/comment/ooteptq/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) and [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1tqdlrp/comment/oog0wy0/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button). Others have said the same thing lately, and repeatedly, famously including Exxon and Chevron bosses. In fact, EVERYBODY has been saying this for many months now. You will be hard pressed to find any outspoken oil bears. And therein lies the rub: when has EVERYBODY been right when it comes to markets? Anytime EVERYBODY knowns what markets will do next, it always turns out that those really in the know were quietly executing accumulation or distribution campaigns, using the liquidity of those narratives as they played out. I still believe oil has to spike, no matter what happens in Hormuz. But I am increasingly worried about how popular that narrative has become and wondering if we have a surprise ahead of us. I have spoken.

AgitatedJump8459

Sell order for WTI $119. 3x leverage

Leveraged_Lots

WTI was $87/bbl less than a week ago...