WWII

CoughRock

they are forced to give up all the colonies due to the crushing WWII debt. Before it was the reserve currency supply and bank of the world. Let this be a lesson on excessive borrowing and running huge national deficit to the next reserve currency nation.

marsman706

Since it says from 1946 onward, its probably to help with rebuilding after WWII. Same with the UK

Dont-be-a-cupid

"lol, Trump and Putin are just burning down the post WWII order." That happened long ago for the global south. Every US president from the cold war onwards has played their part. And European cowardice after Iraq just emboldened Putin.

Character_Minimum989

Ya Iran never ratified UNCLOS so tough shit, post WWII order lol, that includes US invading several countries right?

ChaseballBat

Didn't the CIA set up the current leadership in Iran decades after WWII?

Current-Function-729

It’s an international waterway. lol, Trump and Putin are just burning down the post WWII order.

Manufactured_feces

My favorite part of the speech was when he compared this war to WWI AND WWII

Spez_is-a-nazi

Demographics spell bad time for Nike and a lot of companies like it. Their growth has always depended on an endlessly increasing number of brand conscious teenagers and young adults who are willing to pay a premium for a brand name on their apparel. In absolute terms the number of teenagers hasn’t been this low in the US in about 40 years, in relative terms it’s never been this low. And the US has one of the better looking population structures in the affluent world. There really isn’t a growth story for Nike.  Honestly I think the market hasn’t yet priced in the demographic realities unfolding. The focus on demographics is mostly around the working age to retiree ratio but there are so many other downstream effects that just aren’t really paid much attention. One is that the consumer base is now no longer endlessly expanding like it has for the past 80 years after WWII. Companies are going to have to shift their mindset in order to grow.

sweeetscience

The US has been the guarantor of _global maritime_ security since WWII, not just this particular strait. The true repricing moment is when everyone realizes that this singular event dismantled that guarantee without an effective or capable replacement. What happens if pirates start seriously threatening the Malaca Strait? Who’s going to do the work to make it safe for commercial traffic? What happens if socialist narco-terrorists start deploying kamikaze USVs outside the Panama Canal? Who would take the lead to break a blockade of Taiwan? Not that anyone bothers to enforce EEZ infringement anyways, but who takes on the responsibility of cracking down on Chinese overfishing by commercial fleets in protected waters (sounds minor until you see the scale of it. It’s a globally shared resource after all and we definitely depend on it like everyone else)? There isn’t a single navy on earth that can do any of these except the US Navy. As of today it is no longer a reliable guarantor. It’s a weird time to be alive for sure

Dorkicus

The last time Congress declared war was WWII. There have been hundreds of military operations since then. The executive branch has been wiping its butt on the Constitution for over 80 years.

GreyMatter22

He basically said how long WWI, WWII, the Korean, and other recent wars are, going from 4 years to decades. And how we are only 32 days in, and that stocks haven't even fallen by that much. Super low energy demeanor. It all sounds how we need to strap in, and face the upcoming oil/energy crisis, which will absolutely lead to a contracting GDP.

redhed16

Comparing the length of this to WWII. oh good.

jersey856

No, I, neither have 98% of ppl on this thread, listened to either man. Should we also listen to African and S American leaders the talk crazy, or just ones that threaten Israel, I mean red herring? We waited until the bitter end to enter WWII don’t see why we couldn’t do the same for 3

FreshestCremeFraiche

Yeah look at the years. Great Depression, WWII, 2008 financial crisis, COVID. These are all surrounding disaster

poozyfloor

No kidding. Let's just dismantle the post WWII era which was the most stable in history. Markets go up.

Funk_Apus

How was Germany’s stock market after WWII? I figure it’s about 50/50 at this point, that is where we will be.

econoDoge

Listen , I hear your concern, WWII War bonds were sold in post offices but we all know mail is evil and full of fraud, that's why these are being sold exclusively on the finest affiliated stores, and just like the millions that were donated to the campaign the funds will go where they are intended and not into a giant talking gold statue in the middle of central park with a casino in the basement and a McD franchise.

coldandhungry123

The Iranian military by way of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and the local militias cannot be killed with an aerial bombardment. That doesn't seem to be the objective. Destroying their capabilities for nukes, greatly damaging their air defenses and degrading their supplies of drones/missiles was a priority and largely that has been accomplished. To a certain extent, we bombed the Axis powers into submission during WWII. Firebombing military and civilian targets in Germany and Japan with such intensity as to produce casualties far exceeding the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The relentless bombing runs by Allies decimated those two countries, which basically had to be rebuilt from scratch.

CoughRock

depend on if the toll is higher than the cost of maintain navy/air force there. Our military contractors aren't exactly know for budget efficient and running under cost. IE: cost of afghan war was around 2.3 trillions. It's going to cost you a huge sum of cash while our nation is running a huge deficit. Not sure if it's worth to pay that much just to protect one man's ego. Let's not forget, Prior to WWII. Great Britain was the world's de facto banking system. Every one borrow from them and has to obey them financially. WWII put them through huge amount of war debt and force borrowing from usa. Effectively gave up their banking power and destroy any ability to maintain oversea colonies. Who's to say the same thing won't happen to us if we escalate this to a world war. The neutral country that finance the next world war will be the winner post war and control the global currency.

DrawMeAPictureOfThis

WWII had a ton of public works programs. WWIII doesn't have a government that will fund productivity

James161324

Tariffs: Well, they are stupid. The question is, who else are you going to trade with? The US makes up 33% of global consumption. Cutting off trade with the US will create a depression in most nations. Military: it's nothing new, the US has been in countless wars since WWII. Internal investment: this is nothing new, and isn't just a US problem. Political instability: A bit of revisionist history. U.S. politics have always been pretty polarizing, and social media makes it seem far worse. Once again, it's also not a US issue either. It sounds like you're highlighting broader global issues that aren't just isolated to the US. Could there be a catch-up trade in international markets of course, is America on the brink of collapse that much more than most other developed countries no.

JakeTappersCat

Why can't we just create synthetic oil like the germans did in WWII? Maybe stocks remembered that and that's why the market is up

JonathanPhillipFox

This is a Tragedy, >"Tragedy is when I cut my finger.  ***Comedy*** is when you ***fall*** into an ***open sewer*** and ***die***." *Mel Brooks* ...but if Keir Starmer and Donald Trump spend a few hours in a room alone together and Keir Starmer emerges to, "apologize, on behalf of Myself **alone** ***and humbly, with humility, accept the shame and the scorn I have earned,"*** **It Might have been him, I do not know** I do not remember and I think it might have been >***...due to my failures as a husband, as a Minister*** **as a result of....** Pensive moment >Cowardice, C\_ckoldry, and The **R Slur I have become the Straight of Hormoz,** This might be a Chicken and Egg situation all I'm saying, "I think to hate him as a lawyert if I was on the wrong end of a Human Rights Violation," can almost see those eyes pop through the spectacles *so you'd have to make them pop through the spectacles* ***you'd have to see what his face does when you throw out the old, "What do*** **you think about Carlos the Jackal,"** not even kidding thus was a conversation foisted upon me by a Prominent Local Attorney when I went to the Victims of Domestic Violence Ball While His Mom *yes in her 90's told my girlfriend at the time what an Honor it has always been to be a graduate of Ursuline* the highschool in town **fastest, easiest and Most Appropriate at which to cast a remake of the 2008 James Franco film** ***Spring Breakers*** while her son was like, "I used to read about him a lot in college, used to read about him and think," I was not going to take this bait but he insisted, "what if he'd been **right, you know, what if he'd been,"** ***right about how to LIVE*** [Grasping, Desperately, for a panic button under the wood table as we speak](https://www.economist.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1424,quality=80,format=auto/content-assets/images/20260110_BRP504.jpg), "I think that Naked Lunch is **underrated, sir Kier, You?"**[ He's going to have to call his own lawyer,](https://www.thenation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/GettyImages-2175312180.jpg) **You have that kind of Conversation back at his day job, "I'd bet but cannot prove and I'll roll the Dice on the airport conversation about this at the possible expense of a trip to the V&A Museu**m," that you might be in a Hot Pickle you ever depended upon him as an actual Litigator of ~~Civil~~ Human Rights Law, an actual, Lawyer, of Human Rights >Keir Starmer is a British politician and former high-profile human rights lawyer who became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in July 2024. As a barrister at Doughty Street Chambers, he specialized in international law, civil liberties, and criminal law, earning distinction as Queen’s Counsel in 2002 and serving as Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) from 2008 to 2013 Yeah that **would have been no fun as a defendant but Etiam Pecatta, Etiam Pecatta, Etiam Pecatta, we've got the Vicar of Christ out there arguing, "I agree** ***so much I agree," to outlaw aerial bombing in warfare internationally, "we have not disarmed in the 108 Years since the First War," and that*** *could be the difference between war becomes* ***just aerial bombing, of just civilian areas, in just total warfare against the entire state society, economy, and culture also from the civilian infastructure*** **out to the front lines of lesser and lesser importance, "or," or,** **People went out for picnics to watch Civil War Battles** 100% certain that they'd been the sickest f\_cks on field, that no one would then do a little Carthage on the Town, "fell in 146 BC," Carthage and from **then up until about Dresden remained the unique example of such behavior all at once and Deliberately, "numerous examples to follow," innumerable** ***and if Chenghis Khan Burnt half the world down he was also a lot more judicious in his approach to the aftermath*** **I'll cite that for the doubters, "I remember when I was like** ***oh that Andrew Tate," and My Own Little Brother won the Bareknuckle Boxing Round Robin Tourney, in Dadaal Suum for Naadam, "just forgot,"*** **but just forget that in the context of, "guys."** **Because these guys are so vulgar, these guys are so gross** *anyone out there see the featherweight champ from the real Mongolia win at UFC this last year, "didn't even ever see an UFC Fight I think," those guys watch Sumo on Satelite from NHK* ***he 100% could have but I don't think he bothered to he fought him for real,*** **"Mongolia is Blessed with an Eternal Blue Sky," real bushi stuff** real real bushi stuff no aerial warfare from Mongolia; there are some boys from America or the UK out there trying to **do the enclosure act, "they've not got one," and I get their intentions** ***you have all the land on paper with anyone, "for sheep*** **that's the project is Real Nice Wool," but franchised like a machine** enclosure act stuff literally, that's what they'd told their uncle or somesuch, "out the Gobi there is an Apotheosis of War Statue," a real one made of all the Shin Gunto Blades of the **entire Japanese Land Invasion of WWII, "they'd just dissapeared," it's out in the Gobi and if you consider that they're made from House Blades of Samurai, that all of them Japan got cut in half and those just piled up the desert I'd bet I dunno** **Several Hundred Million, might be, those swords, "doesn't matter," Mongolia is blessed with an eternal blue sky; not a problem** those kids from I hear, "not a problem," as wicked as that plan is **I do have the former president of Mongolia's personal chess set and Family Photo Album as a result of what happens when politics becomes** ***involuntary, there, "Rory Stewart stuff," and yes literally, both still REAK of fire they've been a wood box for years now, like*** I say, Let the Coward Keir Starmer apologize for this mess he got us all into, "as I recall he'd done this," how it goes, really, **no one remembers who broke the window at the Phillips 66 Gas Station Robbery, but, it is always a guy** ***a lot like Keir Starmer***

Arhys

The USA really pissed on everything built in terms of international diplomacy and rules built ever since the WWII. I know it wasn't perfect but now it's basically worthless. I hope when the rebuilding is finished there are no longer permanent members of the Security Council or at least there is a working mechanism to shut them down when they or their allies/vassals commit transgressions.

floridabeach9

“far worse” tarriffs and russia invading ukraine werent worse than this, and covid was obviously just a bad 3 months. this has potential to be much worse than anything we’ve experienced since WWII. if the red sea and persian gulf BOTH get locked down, it 100% will be.

CantaloupeSea48

Pretty much. They are all PUUUsies. Poland is the only one with balls any more. They remember WWII. Pepperidge Farm remembers.

Nervous_Building109

A total US victory Total surrender and elimination of the Iranian government New Iranian government that is friendly like Germany and Japan after WWII We need boots on the ground. Let's go!

Complaintsdept123

There is no evidence after WWII of any nuclear country using their nukes. Why is this situation any different?

Exact_Entrepreneur66

You can go pretty much go to any reputable newspaper(US as well as international) as well as social media and check it out yourself.....There were no videos of nazis mass murdering in WWII, so by your logic you shouldn't believe in the number of people they said died in WWII?

asetniop

>The Soviet Union sustained around 27 million total deaths (8.7M military, 19M civilians), while Germany lost roughly 5.3 to 7.4 million people... By your logic Germany beat the Soviets in WWII.

PJM123456

Because the number of people that change their own oil, let alone fix their own cars is approaching thw number of surviving WWII vets. And I’m a grease monkey in my spare time.

ButtCoinBuzz

The US will need to commit troop numbers significantly greater than the 2007 surge to hold the Straight meaningfully. The US will need to hold enough terrotory inland to make strikes on occupied coastlines areas difficult. I don't see these objectives being accomplished without a draft and casualty numbers we havent seen since WWII. I dont think the petrodollar was a concern here. In fact, I dont think any serious analysis or consideration for global balance, hegemony happened. This was pure hubris gone too far. I foresee this war lasting well into the next administration.

yasashinosegei

Maybe they will execute the last protocol the Japanese government announced but failed to do at the end of WWII. I believe the unofficial name was ‘ichioku gyokusa’, roughly translatable to 100 million shattered jewels, meaning sacrificing the entirety of the 100 million Japanese population to resist their enemies. Iran’s last census has them at 93 million, so it wouldn’t be that far off if they went with it.

westchesterbuild

When I was 9, my grandfather, who landed in Normandy, during the second wave, suffered a heart attack. I was into WWII Tamiya models at the time and built him a Spitfire model for him. He kept it at his bedside in the hospital and then in their home til he passed decades later. These dickheads never saw combat, dodged drafts, manipulate our life savings, rape children and give each other awards for it. No Kings

artificialidentity3

I mean I hear you and the condescending tone you're using with the 😂, but let me ask you a question… why is it actually amusing to you? I’m an American and I’ve been voting for decades and fighting against this kind of shit with actual actions. I’ve educated myself and I’ve educated hundreds of other people. I’ve tried really hard to make a good and positive difference in this world. But I guess I deserve whatever is coming to me at the hands of the current administration because I’m an American, right? In the same way that all the Germans who got killed in WWII, whether or not they were the ones being persecuted or the ones doing the murdering, deserved it - because they were Germans? Where’s your empathy? Do you think that the American people of color who are being deported or imprisoned for no other reason than their skin color "deserve all of it"? I mean, isn’t this problem serious and worthy of more than mockery? Aren’t you worried about people of nations around the world who are affected by this disgusting regime that is now running the United States of America? I know I am. But I guess as long as we can reduce it to a 🤣 and laugh at the "Americans" it’s all good right?

_BMS

All they had to do was not invade China and they would've never experienced the US oil embargo that ultimately led to WWII and their cataclysmic defeat.

Full_Boysenberry_198

“Worst since WWII” SELL SELL SELL

ryanvsrobots

> "Only 33%" that's a huge percentage if you knew anything about the military and military operations. Over a quarter of their arsenal destroyed in weeks. Compare that to ours which is probably not even a fraction of a percent. Iran has destroyed several THAAD and other highly advanced radar systems which combined with our arms cost more than the 33% we destroyed and are effectively irreplaceable. Iran can still build missiles at a high rate and is being resupplied by allies like China and Russia. >Their military is panicking and attacking everyone nearby with no clear, strong leadership. That's a feature, not a bug. This strategy has been highly effective for them, resulting in much of the world condemning this US venture into Iran and isolating us from our Allies. Trump is the one panicking, asking NATO for help and having tantrums when they refuse. >Power has moved from up top to individual commanders doing whatever they want. This also has been highly effective, resulting in Iran's complete control over the strait. >If we killed Hitler and his second in command took over would you say that's a failure? No. Hitlers dead = good thing If we killed hitler and WWII continued unchanged? Yes that would be a failure, because the **goal** would be end the war, not just kill hitler. **Again, I am talking about GOALS not "good things."** You keep focusing on "good things" those are not goals. >And yes the straight of hormuz is now a secondary goal but that's not what the war is about that's just a side effect. It's not a secondary goal it's a fucking disaster and it's now our primary goal. Iran now has MORE power than it did before the war started. US blowing some shit up means nothing. The world is not any safer. Everything is more expensive. **We are all worse off. We have no plan on how to achieve success and like you our leadership is unable to define what success even is. The war so far is a failure.**

McKoijion

The best indicator to sell every single stock you own is how much effort Reddit's owners and executives are putting into promoting the war and censoring criticism of America's greatest, and now only, "ally." At least half of my comments here can't make it past the filter. The same thing applies to every other social and traditional media outlet in the US. I've never seen this much propaganda and censorship in my entire life. There's gonna be a massive reckoning over this similar to how WWII ended. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Huffman#Personal_life

MrTemecula

This is a US war. We started it. We killed the Iranian leadership. We killed over 1,000 Iranians. We gave the world no choice at all. This is our war. Trump calls this America First. It's America Alone. He's thrown away a world order which we basically ran since WWII.

GhostofBreadDragons

The reason for the American highway system is that Eisenhower saw how vulnerable the train lines were in WWII. This doesn’t mean you roads are safe. It just means that it is a lot harder to disrupt roads.  The same goes for renewable energy vs no renewable energy. Renewable energy is vulnerable to disruption as well, but it is less vulnerable than oil. You can still damage solar panels or windmills but they don’t have the same supply line problems of oil. They don’t require the tankers, refineries, power plants or pipelines. It’s a matter of how vulnerable something is not if it is invulnerable or not. Renewables are less dependent on supply lines and less toxic when damaged. Solar is safer than oil refineries and when damaged solar doesn’t pollute the earth. 

Ok-Barracuda39

Anyone want to join together to pool resources to buy a 200-300 acre plot of forest in the upper midwest? I can contribute by handling all of our networking/videogaming/IT needs as well as making a mean pizza and burgers. I also bring some student loan debt and a small collection of WWI and WWII firearms.

Playful_Stick488

Thats because the war machine is turning. Which makes everything else turn. Its slow getting started but once moving it makes the economy just buzz along. Thats what end the depression in the early 40's was WWII.

rbt321

Not always. USA paid reparations to Spain and Mexico after winning those wars; effectively paid for land after taking it. USA also provided assistance to West Germany and Italy after WWII.

ChaseballBat

No the mines are WWII era cartoon bombs, that is all that exists!

PowerfulHomework6770

I think mining technology has improved since WWII, you can switch off the sensors remotely (they just better hope nobody hacks them)... saw it on a youtube video or some shit

Critical_Concert_689

tbh, you're describing a niche perception pushed by a very small group of western radicals, primarily elitists pushing a savior's narrative. Literally no one sensible is comparing this conflict to WWII. Claiming Iranians support their regime is like claiming 50501 protestors are supportive of Trump, after he (hypothetically) ordered troops to mow them down; it's an argument that makes zero logical sense.

FancifulLaserbeam

That was a description of Iraq, not Iran. There's basically the pro-theocracy people and the anti-theocracy people. What I keep wondering, though, is how big the proportions of the total population each one is. We're kind of led to believe that the Islamist faction is some kind of detested minority, but I'm of the long-considered opinion that *all* governments are democratic, because if people don't like theirs, they always outnumber it and can replace it. It's not like the police and military are recruited from some separate population or grown in the lab to the mullahs' specs; these people are just normal Iranian people. So my question is not whether we needed to stop Iran from getting nukes, especially when we now know that they were lying about their missile stockpiles and range, but whether we can put an end to that with precision strikes and wiping out the military. I think that what we actually would need to do is a full invasion, occupation, hanging of the establishment leadership, set up a puppet state and make it popular, and make sure everything is running smoothly before mostly pulling out, which is what we did after WWII with both Germany and Japan. It was phenomenally expensive, but we could afford it because we were the last man standing, and both Germany and Japan are much more culturally similar (Japan may look/seem different, but it's basically the UK of East Asia—source: I've lived here for over 20 years) to the US. I don't think Trump et al. are really *dumb* (well... Hegseth doesn't strike me as the sharpest tool in the shed...), but I *do* think that whomever wargamed this underestimated Iran's willingness to just soak up abuse and keep fighting. It's the difference between a political war and a religious one. The truly religious cannot be rational.

LegitimateSituation4

Yeah, but they also smugly say "we haven't actually had a declared war since WWII!" But then go silent when asking "okay, so what was meant by 'no new wars,' then?"

McKoijion

The revolted against the British Empire after WWII.

AnnoyingEditor

Great depression did happen right before WWII 🤔

BellacosePlayer

I post a lot in shitpost subs and History subs discussing WWII. the reddit ban AI does not like me very much, no.

Tanpopomon

1. Get into office by framing it as a battle between the people and the elite. 2. Blame certain groups of people that could be considered "outsiders" for various problems. 3. Develop a branch of the government to get rid of those groups forcibly. 4. Start to call anyone against him "delusional", "egotistical", or "incompetent". 5. Start literally demanding other countries for their land. 6. Start a war and threaten to eradicate an entire group of people. 7. Half the country still supports The German stockmarkets rose considerably during the beginning of WWII, then went flat for a few years, then tanked to Hell towards the end.

Melonskal

> Orange man ready to create largest humanitarian and economic disaster since WWII I am serious about this, are you retarded?

sleepystockmarket

History gives us a reasonable template here. During WWII, the obvious beneficiaries were defense contractors and steel, but what held up quietly were utilities, food processing, tobacco, and railroads - things with inelastic demand. People still needed to eat, heat their homes, and move goods regardless of what was happening in the Pacific. The Korean and Gulf War periods tell a similar story. Energy spiked, defense did well, but the companies that simply kept collecting recurring fees - insurance premiums, utility bills, essential logistics contracts - tended to preserve capital better than most. Not spectacular gains, but they didn't crater either. Your toll-booth framing is historically accurate. The businesses that survived every cycle tend to share one trait: the customer has no real alternative and can't easily defer the purchase. Payroll has to run. Cybersecurity can't be switched off. Waste gets collected regardless of headlines. The one caveat history keeps throwing up: even resilient sectors can get hit by the recession that often follows the initial shock. Defense spending goes up, but consumer staples can still compress margins if supply chains break. Resilient isn't the same as uncorrelated - it just means the floor tends to be higher. Curious what names you're finding that fit the toll-booth model outside the obvious defense plays.

Spez_is-a-nazi

Orange man ready to create largest humanitarian and economic disaster since WWII in order to get exact same deal brown man got but with his name on it instead. Nikkei down 4% and counting.

Quietabandon

The US can invade a lot of countries, but historically has only rarely invaded. A change in the equation is a disruption of post WWII stability and order and would definitely threaten the global stability that modern economic systems depend on. 

poorman_stocks

This is one of the most common psychological traps in investing, and it's worth naming it directly: geopolitical anxiety causes people to hold cash waiting for "clarity" that never comes, and they miss years of compounding. Here's the historical pattern: markets have operated through WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, the Gulf Wars, 9/11, Russia-Ukraine, and dozens of other conflicts. In virtually every case, investors who waited for the conflict to "resolve before buying" either missed the recovery or bought at higher prices after everyone felt safe again. A few frameworks that help: 1. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) removes the timing question entirely. Instead of asking "should I buy now?" you invest a fixed amount every month regardless of headlines. You automatically buy more shares when prices are low and fewer when they're high. Over time, this beats most market timing attempts. 2. Ask what the market already prices in. War risk, energy disruption, and geopolitical uncertainty are already partially reflected in current valuations. When everyone is scared, stocks often have more margin of safety, not less. 3. Separate your time horizons. If you need money in 2-3 years, keep it in cash or short-term bonds — this isn't the question. If you're investing for 10+ years, short-term geopolitical events historically have minimal impact on long-term compounding. The question "what would you do if the war continues past 2026?" has a straightforward answer: the same disciplined investing you'd do if it ended tomorrow. DCA into diversified assets and let time do the work.

BaronVonMittersill

ends justify the means. pax americana has a cost. europe or any else could step up and do it. but they don’t. the quality of life most first world countries enjoy is directly the result of the post WWII american military hegemony. as much as it would be nice if everyone could sit in a circle and sing kumbaya, that’s not how the world works.

gdkod

Russia was never considered a post-WWII superpower. Soviet Union - yes, not russia.

JustGiveMeANameDamn

We haven’t been at “war” since WWII though. This is just a special military operation lol

Common-Second-1075

> "Oil spiked before every major US recession post WWII" That's not true. I think you're thinking of the previously true statistic that every m time oil prices have spiked 50% a US recession has followed. Which used to be true, until 2022 when the price spiked by more and there was no resulting recession (also one of the only time the yield curve inverted and there was no recession). For reference, there was no oil price shock before the following US recessions: - 1960-61 - 2001 - 2020

EarthquakeCrater

Say what you will about Tom Nash but he said markets bottom within 35 days of US foreign skirmishes starting (since WWII). We have 2-3 weeks to lows.

Pretty-Balance-Sheet

I'm close to early retirement (or was, lol). Not as old as you, but not far off. I went 50% cash last Monday. I was still up 30% yoy and even after being down 4% from my ATH. I'll start buying back in when we hit -8%. If we hit -20% I'll go fully back in unless things are looking genuinely worse. Not that anyone asked but ,y take is that Trump's in way over his head. He can't just cancel this war like he canceled tariffs to pump the market. I believe that Trump's handlers Israel and Russia both benefit from this action and that both have compromising material on DJT, so even if he could back out gracefully or otherwise he won't. 4,400 marines headed to the gulf. Boots on the ground in less than a week. We have zero leverage in this fight other than brute force and we've seen military fail over and over and over again since WWII. Iran can keep hitting energy infrastructure with $40k drones. If the US takes Iranian territory to open the Straight they'll keep flying those drones into refineries. Trump's mental illness and $5m in drones might crash the entire world's economy and frustrate a $1T military built to fight hypersonic jets, not cheap fiberglass flying bombs...

sleepystockmarket

The historical precedent that always gets overlooked in these discussions is post-WWII America. In 1946, debt-to-GDP hit around 119% — far worse than today's ratio — and the US didn't default or collapse. It grew its way out over two decades through a combination of strong real GDP growth, moderate inflation, and financial repression (keeping interest rates below inflation). The critical difference now is that 1946's debt was the result of a one-time emergency spend, while today's trajectory is structural — driven by demographics and entitlement obligations that don't switch off. So the "it's always been fine" argument has limits. The question I'd actually worry about for a portfolio is less "will the US default" (almost certainly not) and more "what's the exit mechanism this time?" — because historically it's always been some mix of inflation and financial repression, both of which quietly erode real returns on bonds. Has anyone adjusted their fixed income allocations with that historical pattern in mind?

Flaky_Acanthaceae925

Some excellent comments on regional politics here. I'll just say that the people who rule Iran are true fanatics, just like the Japanese military leaders at end of WWII, they will Never surrender and will take down everyone with them, civilians, Qatar, UAE, Saudis, etc. They have nothing to lose but their ego and pride. Trump is a business person, he is clueless about dealing with true religious fanatics. They will fight to the end, any student of history will remember the brutal long Iran Iraq war. One of the most ugly wars of second half of 20th Century.

calm_discussion_3500

I would say yea it definitely contributed very much to inflation during Covid. Doesn't mean we should have had zero stimulus but we clearly overdid it. Having WWII deficits now during peacetime is definitely contributing to core PCE being 3% 5 years later.

McKoijion

Nah, it was like that until they discovered oil and Britain attacked them. The US just took over Britain's imperialism after WWII. We were supposed to spread democracy, but we instead decided to support brutal monarchies to stop communism.

Upset_Development_64

Of course they are, fascists loathe accountability and the Bored of Peace committee exists solely to usurp global institutions that were established after WWII to actually facilitate peace and free trade. Isolationism isn’t good for Line Go Up

SevereLog9181

Most SBR rubber that you will find in tires (a synthetic that was made out of necessity for WWII), has sulfur in its system. This is true of a lot rubber, synthetic or otherwise. Just thought I'd put that out there because everybody has to buy tires at some point.

I_am_Nerman

Just like WWII

Roxorek

new Dalio dropped Dalio's like: "Forget the nukes and politics, whoever controls this oily choke point WINS the whole war." Iran dragging it out with mines/drones? US looks weak AF, allies ghost, dollar gets heemed vs gold, inflation goes full BRRRR, and the post-WWII world order turns into a smoking crater (Suez Crisis 1956 vibes on steroids). Trump threatens "Death, Fire, and Fury"? If we actually reopen that strait and flex on Iran, America stays the alpha, oil flows, portfolios moon. Fail? Everyone's bagholding while China/Russia laugh.It's all Stage 6 Big Cycle chaos – debt bubbles popping, empires crumbling like your 0DTE calls, history repeating since Spanish/Dutch days. No agreements, just raw "might makes right" until one side taps out.Dalio's not picking sides (he's just a history autist betting on outcomes), but basically: Hormuz decides if we're all fucked or if the empire holds. Gold gang diamond hands? Probably. Talent over money in this clown market? Always. TL;DR: IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ – THIS IS THE FINAL BOSS BATTLE, BRO

ptwonline

Canada was given the power of independent foreign policy in the 1930s. So when Britain went to war in WWII Canada could make its own choice to join or not. In WWI Canada was still under British foreign policy and was at war as soon as Britain was, but the Canadian govt still had control about how and how much to contribute.

Soffatjockis

WWII? But considering how many nazis there seems to be now I'm not too sure.

Kaymish_

Your feelings are badly wrong. The Iranians have said they're prepared to fight this war for years and they won't entertain any negotiations right now. Trump has already tried to send envoys but they have been rebuffed. They fought the US backed Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein for 8 years; endured daily bombings and chemical weapon attacks. The bombings of the schools hospitals and sports teams have hardened Iranian resolve and support for their government, there are no viable separatist forces the US can make use of. Think October minimum before there's even talk of a peace deal. Unless the USA and Israel break before then. A modern nation state can take a lot of beating before it breaks, just look at Ukraine it has been 4 years and the whole country has been bombed into dust they're losing whole generations of men to the front line still fighting bravely and they were extremely weak at the beginning they didn't have anywhere near the wide based institutional structures Iran has put in place they don't have the same 3000 year old history of Persia they have Stephan Bandera from WWII as their hero and they're still standing. Iran is going to stand much stronger than Ukraine has.

actuarialisticly

No. Not much correlation between wars and markets. For example, during WWII the market was BOOMING.

soad1331

Did they refer to it as WWI as it was happening? Or did they just call it WW? Or afterwards were They like, yeah that was the WW. They probably didn't call it WWI until there was WWII. I mean, WWIII we'll just know what to call it.

Garbage-Disposal-938

in Israel, 93% now favor the war. earlier this year, before the war started, the percentage in Israel that favored attacking Iran was much lower. but I guess what's happening in Israel is the same thing that happens everywhere during air bombing campaigns: people rally around their country and its leaders. also happening in Iran. also happened in the blitz bombings of London in WWII. and when Allied forces bombed the hell out of Germany. I believe it also happened in Vietnam.

sleepystockmarket

Something worth thinking about that nobody's mentioned — the data on market returns during active conflicts is pretty counterintuitive. During WWII the Dow roughly tripled from the 1942 bottom to VJ Day. The Gulf War in 1990-91 is a particularly clean example: the S&P fell about 20% in the run-up, bottomed almost exactly when ground troops went in, then fully recovered within a few months. People who sold at maximum fear in January 1991 missed the entire recovery. The harder question isn't "should I stay in" — it's "am I actually going to buy back in, and at what signal?" Most people who sell in a downturn never re-enter at a lower price. They either wait for certainty (which never comes) or chase back in after the recovery is mostly done. If you don't have a specific, pre-written rule for when you'd re-buy, that's worth thinking through before you do anything.

Malnilion

All pathways are safe if you're a friendly ship because the mines are almost definitely remotely activated. This isn't WWII, technology has come a long way.

Money_Term8366

Aren’t they killing more people this year through their suicide program than the amount that died in WWII

SpellAccomplished541

US hasn't nuked anyone since WWII ('45). Trump obsesses over stock market, family enrichment/crypto, Trump hotels worldwide. Nukes tank *all* that. To the contrary, he's backed down *every single time* markets/bonds dipped (he'll do it again here, declare "victory" after oil volatility peaks).

Rainbow_Frenz4vr

can not do it all they can do is drop the 82nd airborne. they are light infantry and not really good for anything (dont tell them that!). as far back as WWII they realized airborne is pretty much useless (look at operation varsity in 1945) even eisenhower realized the resources needed to drop and then break through to the airborne (Because they need almost immediate resupply and casualty evacuation) would be better used just applying it to the main ground push. airborne is only any good for very specific smash-n-grab raids (like rescuing mussolini) but there's no one to rescue on Carguy Land, dropping them there just makes them an immediate target in an Alamo type situation with no way out. Americans will not tolerate casualties remember this is the TikTok generation where everyone is a main character and future celebrity not Band of Brothers where the 21 year old soldiers actually believe in the cause

IJustBoughtThisGame

Iran has 70 million more people and 950,000 more military personnel (compared to when we invaded Afghanistan in 2001) and is 2.5 times the size. The US would struggle to occupy the country even if its entire military (across all branches) were in theatre simply because Iran has half the military size we do and so many people there would become insurgents since foreign invaders tend to inspire that kind of thing (a la pretty much every war we've fought post-WWII). This would basically be the Korean War + the Vietnam War + the Afghanistan War + the second Iraq War all rolled into one.

Dr-McLuvin

US Presidents have been deploying troops since *checks notes* WWII

TernTheNumbers

Israel was willing to share the land since 1947, even getting the worse half of British Palestine from the UN after WWII. "We're going to kill you and take it all" was the Muslim response to the idea of sharing, peace proposals, and compromises ever since. I think Israel was driven to this by decades of terrorism and genocidal threats. They're not deliberately aiming for civilians like Hamas does, they're just not holding back anymore. "You wanna shoot at us from an apartment building? Apartment building goes boom." The death and destruction in Palestine is horrific but I can't bring myself to condemn Israel under the circumstances. The Muslims have wanted a fight to the death against the Jews for 75 years.

RiseIfYouWould

Yes in war there are civillian casualties, a lot of casualties died in WWII in order to make Hitler suicide. War sucks. There is also a lot of fake news and false flags in wars. Lots of countries have a history of false flags to worse the image of their enemies.

Unemployable1593

that was just WWII

Pffffftmkay

And I'd take him over Carter, but I'm an independent who leans right, so that's not too surprising we disagree here and there (I'm assuming your left since you're on reddit). At any rate, people with no memory or education of the past often hyperbolize recent events. It's pointless for me to get so frustrated, but with how people are reacting to the Iran conflict (or war or whatever it "is"), I'd love to see them react to Vietnam or WWII. And for all the complaints about what Trump has done to our norms and with immigration enforcement, I'd love to see them react to Jackson and the trail of tears. I'm NOT defending his actions. I'm just saying on the spectrum of Hitler to George Washington, he's objectively and factually far far far closer to George Washington than the NYT and people on Reddit act. I do think there is value to properly calibrated reactions. Part of the reason we're here now is because the Biden admin and various state prosecutors undoubtedly did overreach and use law fair in the same ways they accused Trump of doing (including to a much greater and worse degree in his second admin). As far as evidence shows, Trump is an immoral human being, but he's not completely irredeemable. Neither is his presidency. There have been flashes of good amidst all the muck. There's far more muck to be sure, but things and people are never all good or bad.

depressed_panda49

Based on the all-time high (ATH) closing price of $697.84 for SPY, here are the calculated price points: · 5% down: $662.95 · 10% down: $628.06 · 15% down: $593.16 For VOO: · 5% down: $609.72 · 10% down: $577.63 · 15% down: $545.54 During the 2008 financial crisis SPY drop 57%. - WWII (Pearl Harbor): -19.8% to -23% (S&P 500/Dow) - Korean War: -12.9% (S&P 500) · Vietnam War (Cambodian Campaign): -14.9% (S&P 500) · Yom Kippur War/Oil Embargo: -16.1% to -41% (S&P 500; -41% over 1 year) · Gulf War (Iraq invades Kuwait): -15.9% to -16.9% (S&P 500) · Afghanistan War (2001): -11.6% (S&P 500; linked to 9/11) · Iraq War (2003): -5.6% (S&P 500) · Russia-Ukraine War: -7.4% to -12.4% (S&P 500; -12.4% over 1 year)

Boomer_With_Dementia

My moves for tomorrow? I dunno, Peter Zeihan says that continued loss of Persian Gulf Oil to Asia will cause things to collapse pretty quickly over there in Asia. But I think the obvious destruction of the past WWII global order will continue to cause military stocks to go up everywhere. So trying to figure out wether the militarization play matures before the financial collapse happens is really hard to figure out. So I don't have energy for that, instead I will probably follow some zany trade idea posted by some other WSB account.

Quick1711

These aren’t old traditional mines. This isn’t WWII

siali

What happened to stocks during that short-term 1939 excursion that is called WWII?

Putrid-Caregiver7407

The basis of your argument is flawed, relying heavily on hindsight bias. You're saying just because we know the inner workings of USSR near the point of collapse, that all policies implemented prior were fluff. Which is blatantly false. I don't even know what your objective is. But lets go over what you are saying. >What do you call a punching bag that started the Yom Kippur War over a false flag operation by killing innocents in Egypt, struck the USS Liberty, and actively funds a superPAC that is anti-American at heart? My argument is that Israel doesn't control us. We don't do anything we dont want to do. You say they are terrorists, which isn't relevant to my argument because I never said they weren't. This designation of good and bad is immature. We worked with Soviets as allies right before they became our mortal enemy in the cold war. We have objectives in the region and we use resources to best accomplish those objectives. >We were never involved in the Middle East until the Yom Kippur War and they & Great Britain begged and pleaded for Americans to help them. The fact that we did and continue to do so out of "obligation" is a massive mistake. The communist argument was a facade, Israel wanted Jordanian land and control of the Nile. We have been involved in the middle east officially since we voted on the resolution. Period. Light involvement existed earlier, but the U.S. became a real Middle East power in the mid-1940s, and fully committed by 1947–1957. Everything else afterwards was a primary influence of deterring communism with our vested interest in maintaining Israel against mutual enemies and a base in the middle east. >Yeah, the communist scare was a joke. The USSR was a paper tiger. Poorly managed, their entire economy was contingent on essentially feudal labor and too inflexible to provide for the needs of both the state and its peoples. They could never realistically survive an all out conflict- look what happened in Afghanistan in the 1980s. They were a complete joke militarily, and still are (also, they literally almost lost to the Finns before WWII in the Winter War. How do you almost lose to townies on skis?) Through our official policies, funding and military commitments and lives lost, whether or not communists were pretending to be bigger than they were is irrelevant, fact is WE thought they were and our polices reflected that. You can argue that it was a mistake to continue to assist, though that is countered by every uncertainty during that time that Soviets were rational actors. You wouldn't be able to go back in time to play out that reality so its really groundless on whether it was a mistake. You cant control what other nations do but you can control the resources at your disposal. The positioning to obtain greater US resources has been a major philosophy of every clandestine operation since OSS. But the real fact is USSR was not a joke in the sense of being harmless or fake. It was a real superpower with a huge military, a massive nuclear arsenal, and enough power to threaten the United States and dominate Eastern Europe for decades. U.S. historical assessments in the 1950s described the USSR as heavily armed and capable of inflicting serious damage on the U.S., including atomic attack. But I suppose you know more than the experts. [https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1952-54v02p1/d18](https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1952-54v02p1/d18) >Don't forget the entirety of the Mossad-Epstein ring goes all the way back to the Contras... Even if we didn't want to help them if their aims hurt ours, our politicians are blackmailed into going along with it  Also: [https://www.commondreams.org/news/2010/07/18/netanyahu-us-easily-manipulated](https://www.commondreams.org/news/2010/07/18/netanyahu-us-easily-manipulated) Bibi said it himself, and in 2010! "Don't forget". What Mossad-Epstein ring? What blackmail? The link you put doesn't speak to any of that. This is just tin foil hat speculations with no ground. Your argument here is that we are engaged due to blackmailing of political officials and we would continue to be engaged even if it hurts our interests, largely pointing to covert Israeli cabal influence at the highest levels. There is no evidence of this which negates the overwhelming reason for the cold war and involvement in the middle east. All this stemming from your hindsight bias that Soviets were never a threat? You are all over the place. Again, just because our interests align doesn't mean there's some secret Israeli black ops mind controlling our politicians. >Korea and Vietnam accomplished reducing international support for American actions so Israel and the US could be more isolated internationally, and thus the US could be beholden to proIsraeli goals instead of global unity. Your attempt to frame every US policy and action on an Israeli focused ground is nothing but propaganda and brainwashing. You do know the world doesnt revolve around this right? You do understand that these types of conflicts were occurring before Israel became a state. The immediate reason for the Korean War was that North Korea invaded South Korea on June 25, 1950, and the U.S. intervened under a **United Nations mandate** to help repel that attack. The bigger reason was the Cold War. U.S. leaders believed that letting South Korea fall would strengthen Communist expansion in Asia and weaken U.S. credibility with allies. State Department history describes the war as the point where the Cold War turned into open armed conflict, and later U.S. policy documents explicitly framed Korea as part of resisting further Communist expansion in the Far East. [https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/short-history/koreanwar](https://history.state.gov/departmenthistory/short-history/koreanwar) [https://clintonwhitehouse4.archives.gov/WH/EOP/OVP/speeches/KoreanWarAnniversary](https://clintonwhitehouse4.archives.gov/WH/EOP/OVP/speeches/KoreanWarAnniversary) The U.S. fought in Vietnam because it wanted to prevent North Vietnam and the Viet Cong from defeating South Vietnam, and it saw that as part of stopping communist expansion during the Cold War. The war escalated dramatically after the Gulf of Tonkin incident in 1964. [https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/gulf-of-tonkin](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/gulf-of-tonkin) [https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v05/d177](https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1964-68v05/d177) You want to know what all these have in common? No relation to Israel other than it all being under the same umbrella with the primary objective in the cold war which is to contain Soviet expansion without triggering a direct nuclear war. NSC-68 and related U.S. history sources frame that as deterrence, military buildup, and resistance to further Soviet gains. [https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/NSC68](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/NSC68) >Why the fuck did we veto UN propositions that literally everyone else in the world vehemently disagreed with, except Israel? Why do we shield UN? Easy because their position is to our benefit in the region. >Why do we actively disparage the institutions we built after WWII for global unity? Take it up with the charter and formation legalities of the UN. Any permanent member back block action with a veto. This is not a special reserved US power. >Israel wants everything for itself and cannot imagine a non Jewish world they cannot "inherit". It's literally the Haredi point of view, which is the fastest growing sect of Judaism: [https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9734595/](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9734595/) All this run around. Just say you are biased against Jews instead of denying history. The Cuban Missile Crisis was started because the US escalated the situation with our Minutemen in Turkey pointed at Moscow. The Soviets wouldn't have sent their nukes to Cuba if we hadn't placed them there to begin with. Stupid policy blunders like that were entirely self inflicted. First of all the U.S. missiles in Turkey were Jupiter missiles, not Minutemen. Second it was not started because of that. there were multiple motives: deterring another U.S. attempt to overthrow Castro after the Bay of Pigs, countering ongoing U.S. pressure such as Operation Mongoose, improving Soviet strategic position, and also responding to the missile balance that included Turkey. In other words, Turkey was one cause, not the whole cause. This of course is not relevant because it does not provide ground to your "ussr is a joke" statement or your anti israeli bias. It sounds like you grew up watching too much Alex Jones or the like. I wouldn't say you can claim critical thinking either, as all your references have little to no ground. Simply put, you speak out your ass on things you dont know about.

External_Anteater730

Yeah, the communist scare was a joke. The USSR was a paper tiger. Poorly managed, their entire economy was contingent on essentially feudal labor and too inflexible to provide for the needs of both the state and its peoples. They could never realistically survive an all out conflict- look what happened in Afghanistan in the 1980s. They were a complete joke militarily, and still are (also, they literally almost lost to the Finns before WWII in the Winter War. How do you almost lose to townies on skis?) The Cuban Missile Crisis was started because the US escalated the situation with our Minutemen in Turkey pointed at Moscow. The Soviets wouldn't have sent their nukes to Cuba if we hadn't placed them there to begin with. Stupid policy blunders like that were entirely self inflicted. I know how to read between the lines. You grew up listening to propaganda. Learn to use common sense and critical thinking next time

External_Anteater730

The communist argument was a facade, Israel wanted Jordanian land and control of the Nile. Korea and Vietnam accomplished reducing international support for American actions so Israel and the US could be more isolated internationally, and thus the US could be beholden to proIsraeli goals instead of global unity. Why the fuck did we veto UN propositions that literally everyone else in the world vehemently disagreed with, except Israel? Why do we actively disparage the institutions we built after WWII for global unity? Israel wants everything for itself and cannot imagine a non Jewish world they cannot "inherit". It's literally the Haredi point of view, which is the fastest growing sect of Judaism: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9734595/

bulldozer_66

Wars continue till people are sick of them. In the 1980s the Iranians and Iraqis fought for about a decade over basically nothing. Why would they stop now? They have many layers of backup clerics to take over. They kill their own people for speaking up. They just do not care. This could go on for a while. With the US having little say in anything. We're not the boss here. Haven't been since WWII. Too bad MAGA can't figure that out.

AggieDem

Merchant subs have not been built since WWII. A sub would have nowhere near the capacity of a tanker. Finally, submarines can still hit mines in a strait.

SaveTheAles

Time to bring back WWII ship convoys or just mass rush it.

Dr-McLuvin

That’s what they used to say during WWII