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Anyone have information on what’s in current CMBSs? (Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities)
Abacus Life $ABL, A Sleeping Dragon With Interesting Ownership
Oversold stocks offer opportunity to buy undervalued companies in financial sector.
Mentions
Throw in ABX (formerly ABL) UFPT, NATL, CCOI. Good day for rotation indeed.
Totally. The one drawback with screening is that it misses things that don't really screen well. KFS can grow sales at 20% or more in my opinion, but the numbers are kinda a mess looking backwards. However, yeah, you get a lot of good prospects. I've definitely been taking your screen criteria to heart! ABL is still sitting on a PEG of .43. Soooo cheap!
ABL with another upgrade and $11 price target. I don't think their not bullish enough. That's about 11x 2026 estimates (which are probably low).
Buy some ABL - this stock has a good business, a good plan, and smart Wall Street guys on the board. It is currently $8+ and I am in at $6 and $7 dollars. Back in again at $9-10 as my theory proves out. Thinks it has legs to keep going and growing.
ABL Trading at 8x forward earnings and growing 80% y/y. This thing should double just to achieve a market multiple, not factoring in the insane growth. CRMD Trading at 4x earnings due to concerns about long term earnings. They expect to have some longer term contracts signed in the first half of 2026.
With the non-binding letter of intent between ABL SA and ProPhase labs, PRPH for a proposed reverse merger being the PRPH news released now, what is giving people the confidence to sit through the RS? People must be thinking it's still going to rocket? What's the logic on this one?
PRPH letter of intent to perform reverse merger with ABL Diagnostics (currently trading on euronext under ABLD at roughly 3.64 a share) Definitely good news for PRPH, interested to see how the market reacts today.
https://preview.redd.it/rfgtji20s48g1.jpeg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=42d32e7f69478db0cf25128baa15a86c14974f72 Quick Google since I didn’t understand the proposition of a reverse merger fully but it seems like a bullish move for PRPH considering shareholders are now holders of the tech that ABL provides
PRPH surprise latw night announcement. ABL Diagnostics Informs the Market of a Non‑Binding Letter of Intent Between ABL S.A. and ProPhase Labs (Nasdaq: PRPH) for a Proposed Reverse Merger https://www.stocktitan.net/news/PRPH/abl-diagnostics-informs-the-market-of-a-non-binding-letter-of-intent-mb1vk9lhwrkn.html
I own an irresponsible amount of ABL already but jesus this AMA video makes me want to dump the rest of my port into it
ABL up 1.5% despite paying out a 3% dividend today. Shoots that theory out of the water.
Was looking into those companies and saw the big ABL dip AH did they miss earnings?
Small caps as far as the eye cam see... I own a ton of ABL, but it's still super cheap. It could double and be cheap. JXN is still below book value and shredding their share count. NATL is still at single digits forward earnings. I've started buying a few shares of TWST. Trucking is still pretty cheap. CRMD could explode if they get pricing certainty.
ABL charging towards double digits. Still majorly undervalued: Consistently annihilate their earnings, huge growth, low forward p/e, an emerging untapped market, the only publicly traded company of their kind. The management team is fired up with share buybacks, initiated dividend, CEO insider buy, constant communication from their team to shareholders. The dark horse of 2026
Also true. I'm just mad I'm not going to get one more crack at ABL around $6.
Maybe the fears are just subsiding? ABL has also been on a roll, they tend to be thrown in with PE names.
Lets go ABL, closing above $7 today looks like!
CRWD and MS on the large cap / ABL on the small cap
ODD- several year hold (already held for a year). Extremely cheap for its growth. ABL- extremely cheap. Extremely. Hope to hold for a few years, but $20 might warrant a trim. SJT- holding until it relates due to resumption of its dividend, hopefully in 2026. Possibly beyond because it's just going to gush cash. CRMD- bought June calls. It's extremely cheap due to fears of its pricing getting cut. I feel like when this issue is resolved, the price will rerate.
My recent buys: ODD ABL CRMD SJT
ABL really wants to break over $7....thanks again to the author of that bogus short report.
If anyone wants the .20 dividend for ABL , you need to have some by end of day. Pays out 12/17
The only way to get a 20X is catching them at the early stage with stocks like the ones you have above. I have been long CRWD since $120 and have a large position and doubled down when they had the tech issue that was totally overblown by cnbc and delta airlines. I bought CYBR for $22 about 15-20 years ago and rode into their purchase by Palo Alto for $460 a share. Good luck with these stocks as I am sure there is a 20X in there. You have a mix, as you know, of quantum, nuclear, data center, etc. I just bought KRKNF a small defense company involved in drones and ABL a financial company trying to catch them in the right sector with strong upside while very small companies. Also with the intent of long term holds. Good luck!
ABL dividend update: "The Company’s Board of Directors has declared an annual cash dividend of $0.20 per share, payable on December 17, 2025, to shareholders of record as of December 2, 2025, which will also serve as the ex-dividend date." I like the annual dividend based on profits during the previous year strategy. This is a out a 3% yield at current prices.
Low teens ill consider OUST again. 12ish range: QXO. 5-6ish range: VG If i didnt already have a full position: ABL
Great time to get some ABL after they smashed earnings. Pretty much gave back all their post ER gains (again)
I was buying NATL recently, I think it's super cheap and they're turning on the buyback machine, which is really helpful in this environment. SJT is interesting with nat gas being hot. When they restart the dividend I expect good things. I've also been buying ODD. Chart is terrible, but I can't resist adding to my position down here. It's too cheap. Otherwise I'm being very discerning right now. Everything I look at has a Terrible chart and I'm not particularly bullish. CCOI is cheap, but plummeting. SHLS is interesting, but not super cheap. ABL is dirt cheap, but I own a ton already. CRMD is one I'n really interested in, but I'm still evaluating it. It looks too obvious and I'm sure I'm missing something.
I post pretty frequently (probably too much). I've been pitching ODD for over a year when it gets cheap. If it traded at similar valuation to its peers it should be around $60, minimum. It's also launching some really interesting new lines. I'm incredibly bullish on this one, though I don't think it has instant multi-bagger potential. ABL should be a $15-18 stock, plus it's growing at insane rates. SJT is my other recent buy. It's a trust that owns a ton of natural gas reserves. Their royalty structure is that they only get a portion of profits, not revenue (like TPL does) and their tenant has been investing in Capex for awhile and this not making any "profits". The capex is ending and even at current nat has prices SJT will likely pay out $1/share in dividends, or about a 16% yield. Normally the stock trades around 4-5% yield, which would imply a share price around $18. It's currently at $6. So I've been buying that. I still think BW is a $15-20 stock, even if they don't announce any new business.
since this post didn't get automatically removed... here's my DD \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* I think a sale of the company is coming soon. Grove Collaborative caught my attention when Larry Cheng came on board, and then again when HumanCo wrote their letter to the board pushing them to sell the company. Recently, key people have all been laid off: brand managers, packaging engineers, even their chemists that make their products. I estimate, they're saving 2.5 million or more per year in salary & benefits with this recent layoff. There are only one reason for letting go of so many key people: 1. I suspect that Grove is about to be sold to another company who already has their own chemists, engineers, brand managers, etc. So, **this recent layoff juices the books by immediately creating future profitability** — we may even see profit in their next earnings report on 11/13, since they've been agressively cutting costs to be profitable. Here's some of my AI assisted, awful DD: Grove Collaborative customer list * Grove Collaborative has 664,000 active customers * Grove customers are educated, affluent and have more disposable income Recent Debt Paydown: * After full repayment of their term loan, remaining debt is around $7.5 million under an Asset-Based Loan (ABL) facility. Way More Assets Than Debt: * Total Assets (June 2025): $57.8 million USD * Inventory: $20.7 million - The value of products ready for sale. * Cash and Cash Equivalents: $10 million - Available liquid funds. \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* Grove is trading for $1.41 as of this writing, down from an average of around $1.52 over the past couple months (52 wk high $1.95). Why is it down? Because looking at the jobs listed on LinkedIn, their employees get equity. By cruising linkedin pages of past employees, I can see that there have been layoffs every 6 months or so for the past 3 years at least. **I believe the constant layoffs have been pushing down the share price** because everytime someone gets let go, they quickly sell all their shares, often at market price. Looking at [the letter that HumanCo Investments wrote](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/humanco-investments-sends-letter-to-the-board-of-directors-of-grove-collaborative-302500563.html) to the Board of Directors back in July, HumanCo believes that in an acquisition or sale transaction, Grove Collaborative's share value could be in the range of $2.25 to $2.90 per share I've been accumulating shares for a while now so I'm hoping that my hunch is correct and that HumanCo's price target is spot on. Earnings coming out on 11/13 so hopefully we have good news then.
**Grove Collaborative buyout coming soon? $GROV** I think a sale of the company is coming soon. Grove Collaborative caught my attention when Larry Cheng came on board, and then again when HumanCo wrote their letter to the board pushing them to sell the company. Recently, key people have all been laid off: brand managers, packaging engineers, even their chemists that make their products. I estimate, they're saving 2.5 million or more per year in salary & benefits with this recent layoff. There are only one reason for letting go of so many key people: 1. I suspect that Grove is about to be sold to another company who already has their own chemists, engineers, brand managers, etc. So, **this recent layoff juices the books by immediately creating future profitability** — we may even see profit in their next earnings report on 11/13, since they've been agressively cutting costs to be profitable. Here's some of my AI assisted, awful DD: Grove Collaborative customer list * Grove Collaborative has 664,000 active customers * Grove customers are educated, affluent and have more disposable income Recent Debt Paydown: * After full repayment of their term loan, remaining debt is around $7.5 million under an Asset-Based Loan (ABL) facility. Way More Assets Than Debt: * Total Assets (June 2025): $57.8 million USD * Inventory: $20.7 million - The value of products ready for sale. * Cash and Cash Equivalents: $10 million - Available liquid funds. \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* Grove is trading for $1.41 as of this writing, down from an average of around $1.52 over the past couple months (52 wk high $1.95). Why is it down? Because looking at the jobs listed on LinkedIn, their employees get equity. By cruising linkedin pages of past employees, I can see that there have been layoffs every 6 months or so for the past 3 years at least. **I believe the constant layoffs have been pushing down the share price** because everytime someone gets let go, they quickly sell all their shares, often at market price. Looking at [the letter that HumanCo Investments wrote](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/humanco-investments-sends-letter-to-the-board-of-directors-of-grove-collaborative-302500563.html) to the Board of Directors back in July, HumanCo believes that in an acquisition or sale transaction, Grove Collaborative's share value could be in the range of $2.25 to $2.90 per share I've been accumulating shares for a while now so I'm hoping that my hunch is correct and that HumanCo's price target is spot on. Earnings coming out on 11/13 so hopefully we have good news then.
I posted this a few times now today other places. This is a different ABL this time around. They seem fired up to keep the momentum going and communicate with their investors
u/creeemeeseason nice move on $ABL, hope they can keep some momentum.
Apparently it took until 2:00 for the market to read the ABL report....
ABL earnings: Company Delivers 10th Consecutive Quarter of Strong Earnings Growth ~ ~ Record Revenue Growth of $63.0 Million, Up 124% Y/Y ~ ~ GAAP Net Income of $7.1 Million ~ ~ Adjusted Net Income Up 60% Year-over-Year to $23.6 Million ~ ~ Adjusted EBITDA Grew 127% Year-over-Year to $37.9 Million ~ ~ Increases 2025 Outlook Above Prior Range; Now Expecting Year-over-Year Adjusted Net Income Growth Between 72% & 81% ~ Also initiated a dividend and more buybacks.
u/creemeeseason what are your thoughts on upcoming $ABL earnings?
Most interesting buys for me right now (for discussion). Trucking. I own HTLD, but there's tons of players. I think the next 1-3 years are set up to be really good for truckers, as I've posted about frequently. ODD. No idea why this sold off, other than weak consumer and technical trades. Mid teens EV/earnings and projecting 20% or more growth. NATL. About 6x forward earnings for a growing company that's buying back a ton of stock. Don't own this one yet, and I have no idea why. ABL. Everything is going great for these guys and the market has had no reaction. I'm excited for earnings in 11/5, but Q4 could put up obscene numbers based on a deal they just completed that will add ~$10 million in net income in Q4.
Ya me too :) ABL always be losin.
# Portfolio Considerations[](http://localhost:8501/chat#portfolio-considerations) **Given your concern about position count, consider consolidating around your highest-conviction ideas.** $RIG (offshore drilling) faces structural headwinds from energy transition policies and volatile oil prices—this position appears speculative rather than strategic. **Selling $RIG could fund additional $IVV accumulation**, restoring your core allocation while maintaining exposure to energy through the S&P 500's diversified holdings. **Your planned $XPEL position deserves scrutiny before initiation.** At a P/E near 37 and P/S around 5.8, you're paying a significant premium for a company with 11% net margins in a specialized but competitive automotive aftermarket. While $XPEL demonstrates strong fundamentals (ROE of 21%, minimal debt), the valuation leaves little room for execution missteps. Consider whether this capital might better serve you in $FOA or $ABL—existing positions where you've already done the diligence. **Rebuilding $IVV should be your priority.** Your admission of feeling "bad" about the sale signals psychological discomfort with your current risk profile. Dollar-cost averaging back into the S&P 500 over 60-90 days provides downside protection while maintaining exposure to any year-end rally. \- Open Fieldbook Intelligence Team
RBC has an American arm for wealth management. They offered me the cheapest ABL, so I went there. My personal banking is somewhere else
Who knows, the entire thing is just getting increasingly nutty. A group of VCs got together to form a weird GPU collaterallized ABL for xAI and NVidia bought some equity in them I guess to get the first payments going for all that. Half of these companies are interinvested and dependent on each other to continue operating. It's increasingly starting to look like some weird tech version of the subprime mortgage crisis where everyone's valuations are shooting up based on orders that they're expecting to materialize down the line and GPUs that won't retain their values for 2 years let alone 5. Maybe Sam Altman will finish his Borg Cube and the models really will get good enough to actually be useful and they'll make that money back someday, but at this point everything is contingent in these companies managing to pull in hundreds of billions of dollars in financing and revenue over the next few years to meet the contracts they've already signed. Bad news it's not pension fund or foreign fixed income investor holding the bag this time around though but equity investors buying these companies that have already pulled ahead a lot of the potential value involved.
I posted this previously [Imgur: The magic of the Internet](https://imgur.com/a/UaPMVAo) Only changes since then are I got small positions in JXN, ROOT, RIG, and DLO and bought more FOA, CAAP, HTLD. Also sold a bunch of my IVV (S&P 500) which I feel bad about but gambling on more short term gains on more exciting stocks. May be starting a position in XPEL soon, stocks I am open to buying more of are FOA, ABL, CAAP, DLO, HTLD and ROOT, and I want to build back up my IVV.
Might as well just insert $ into an ABL stock machine. You might actually get lithium in return at this point. And love two problems at once.
Can't link to it because it's hosted in Substack, but value degen and Royalty king had a podcast in which they threw out the idea that someone has learned to manipulate 0DTE options into increasing volatility. The initial premise is that for the first time buyers of options made more money than sellers of options. The second aspect is the extreme volatility of names on relatively small news. They used the CROX earnings as an example. The IV was like 8% and the stock dropped 25%. The result is that we see extreme moves in stocks that can be pushed around, but those moves are frequently buying/selling opportunities. Interesting discussion if anyone is inclined to find it. Also, discussion of ABL, JXN and a few other names I hold (both of which are potentially multi baggers).
ABL seems to be a difficult one to understand. Wasn't there a short report recently claiming something is not right with the way life expectancies are estimated?
NBIS is a weird one....I bought it at $23, which was below the value of its assets. I figured it was a solid risk/reward at that point. It's definitely gotten expensive since then, which is why it's so big for me. My recent buys are ABL, CRMD, and NE, as well as OPRA. I'm not able to make the leap to Japanese names unfortunately. However, I'm still finding plenty of value out there.
I firmly believe that the "everything is expensive" crowd just doesn't look at enough names. OPRA: rule of 40 web browser trading at 16.5x earnings. Also pays a 5% dividend. NXT: utility solar isn't as rough as residential, and this gem is trading at 14.7x earnings. ODD: cosmetics name with 25%+ annual growth, trading at 22x EV/earnings. That's not even counting names with cheap forward earnings like CRMD (6x) or ABL (7x). Like Peter Lynch, turn over rocks.
ABL finally grinding up. Was such weird movement the other day
Looks like ABL gunna be dead money until another killer ER, unfortunate
Pretty surprised ABL has barely moved from the monster print they had
ABL earnings: Second Quarter 2025 Total Revenue Nearly Doubles Year-over-Year to $56.2 Million - - Longevity Funds Attracted $123.1 Million in Capital Inflows - - GAAP Net Income of $17.6 Million - - Adjusted Net Income Grew 87% Year-over-Year to $21.9 Million - - Adjusted EBITDA Grew 89% Year-over-Year to $31.5 Million Ok shorts, your move.
NE- offshore is sooooo cheap. AMTM - probably still about 25% upside this year ($30 price target for me). ODD- after today's selling, the valuation is more reasonable with new lines dropping later this year. ABL- waiting on the shorts to cover.
Solid so far. HWKN, NBIS, ABL, and MUSA all having nice days.
I've been buying ABL and CRMD. ABL was beaten down by a short report. The company is very complex, but is probably very oversold. CRMD is cheap, and if they execute well, extremely cheap, based on forward earnings. Risky though as they have a single product they sell. If that demand dried up, it gets expensive in a hurry. There's a lot more deals in the small cap space, imo, but it is also more risky.
ABL filed a defamation lawsuit against Morpheus research regarding it's short report. Solid.
Well played sir! I was considering that same move, but bought more ABL instead.
ABL got hit by a short report, which seems to be a nothing burger (management is acting accordingly). BNED is transitioning to a high margin recurring revenue business, but is not yet priced as such, in my opinion. CRMD is trading around 7-8x their guided earnings for next year, but growing at massive rates. CHE sold off yesterday on a Medicare issue, but it's a great company. NXT gets sold off as a residential solar play, but they do utility solar which is less sensitive. IBP is a builder and will benefit from lower rates. REAX is real estate, same rate play.
Been buying: BNED, ABL, and CRMD lately. High on the watchlist: CHE, REAX, NXT, IBP
[Abacus Global Management Announces Commencement of Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation Relating to Warrants](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/06/30/3107451/0/en/Abacus-Global-Management-Announces-Commencement-of-Exchange-Offer-and-Consent-Solicitation-Relating-to-Warrants.html) \- ABL ABLLW "The Company is offering to all holders of the outstanding warrants the opportunity to receive 0.23 shares of common stock in exchange for each warrant tendered by the holder and exchanged pursuant to the Offer. Pursuant to the Offer, the Company is offering up to an aggregate of 4,743,381 shares of its common stock in exchange for the warrants. The offering period will continue until 11:59 p.m., Eastern Time, on July 29, 2025"
ABL dumping on warrant news today. I know a few of us in here scooped up shares after the short report. “Abacus Global Management, Inc. announced its plan to conduct a registered exchange offer and consent solicitation for its outstanding public and private placement warrants. The company intends to offer holders 0.23 shares of common stock for each warrant exchanged, while also seeking consent to amend the Warrant Agreement to allow a mandatory exchange at a slightly lower ratio. This move aims to streamline the company’s capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.”
[Abacus Global Management Announces Intention to Conduct Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation Relating to Warrants](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/06/27/3106510/0/en/Abacus-Global-Management-Announces-Intention-to-Conduct-Exchange-Offer-and-Consent-Solicitation-Relating-to-Warrants.html) \- ABL ABLLW "The Company intends to offer to all holders of the warrants the opportunity to receive 0.23 shares of common stock in exchange for each outstanding warrant tendered by the holder and exchanged pursuant to the Offer." "The Company expects to commence the Offer following the filing of a Form S-4 registration statement setting forth the terms of the Offer."
@creemeeseaon @hiddenscout still buying $ABL down here? Seems like a no brainer?
Any news on $ABL? Or just a small cap / low volume move down?
Second USLM Actively buying ABL and BNED right now.
Finally got through all of the ABL short rebuttal. I think the company handled everything splendidly. Quick initial response with the promise of a detailed review to follow. Lots of insider buying and a share buyback authorization. A few days later they hired the gold standard of auditors for their business and had them refute the claims. They then go through and parse out exactly why the short report reached incorrect conclusions. Then end it with this: Conclusion In summary, Abacus strongly refutes the misleading and incorrect claims made by the short seller. We are supported by outside market research analysts, third-party actuarial firms, our auditor, and our transparent accounting methodology used in fair market reporting driven by mark-to-market valuations. Abacus is a leading alternative asset manager, market maker, technology company, and growing private wealth manager. We will not allow this distraction to slow our growth and expansion. (Mic drop).
It's too long to repost, but ABL put out a full rebuttal of the short report, available through any news site. They give the following arguments: Executive Summary Section 1: Third-Party Analysis Confirms that Lapetus Is Not a Meaningful Input to Our Valuation Model Section 2: Mark-to-Market Valuation Depends On Much More Than Life Expectancy Section 3: The Most Recent Market Transactions Confirm the Accuracy of Our Valuation Model Section 4: Shareholder Commitment to Success of the Business and Anticipated Additions to Russell 2000 and 3000 in August 2025. For the first section they hired a reputable independent auditor to evaluate their balance sheet and found the following: "The new Lewis and Ellis valuation concurred with our prior valuation, resulting in a total policy valuation of $449 million as of March 31, 2025. The valuation provider aligned with a discount rate and range of ±2% as disclosed in the Q1 2025 10-Q filing. The Lewis and Ellis valuation of $449 million falls within a 1% margin of error from our stated valuation of $446 million." Adding more ABL this morning.
I can see all 3 in the original post: BWLP, ABL, GAMB. Is it something missing?
Sold out of RSKD because I'd only put a small amount in and was able to reallocate the proceeds to ABL, which I think is an easy 40-50% upside in the near term. Just a better risk/reward profile coming off the short report. Also trimmed a few more shares of ODD at open. Rally is running out and the stock is really expensive. Still holding, just trimming. Will buy more if it retests the $50 level.
Yeah, the UFPT short was basically old info with a few "ex-worker" stories. Even the NSSC report, which was right, was basically just a slowdown in the business. Definitely a lot of new entries, but that makes opportunity I guess. I've been buying ABL.
Abacus Global Management (ABL) has authorized a share buyback worth $20 million after Morpheus Research published a report accusing the company of an accounting scheme in its life settlements business. The alternative asset manager said Friday the authorization is effective June 5 for a period of up to 18 months.
We're not entirely dependent upon SpaceX. We still have the ULA, Blue Origin, Rocket Labs, ABL Space Systems, and others. They'll just fill that void.
They really do. I made off like an absolute bandit on the LRN short. As for ABL in particular, the site that published the short report has had three other reports, and those three stocks have all recovered nicely. You can’t convince me Morpheus research doesn’t make a report to dump a stock and get shares for cheap themselves.
Bought some ABL on the short report selloff. I think most of the claims in the report have been refuted, and even if they haven't, it's really cheap now. Might add a bit more if it stays in the $6 range. Also looking to add to BNED. RSKD still stuck in consolidation range, but watching for a breakout. Adding more around $5.
ABL was down 20% on a short report yesterday. Management issued this response: Abacus has been buying and selling life insurance policies for over two decades with long-standing and trusted counter-party relationships. If Abacus used flawed data causing over-valuation of the underlying insurance product assets, the Company would be going out of business, not consistently producing positive realized returns. As highlighted in the first quarter 10-Q Abacus filed on May 8, 2025, Abacus realized gains of nearly 40% while deploying capital of 126 million. These realized gains were within a margin of error of 2% of the mark from the prior quarter. "Our returns and valuation are audited, and consistent with a 20-year track record of generating positive revenue. This is a copy and paste of fiction from our largest competitor, who has been shopping this story for months. Our success and growth put a bullseye on us, that’s fine – we are going to continue to grow,” said Jay Jackson, Chief Executive Officer at Abacus Global Management. Abacus is highly regulated in nearly every state, and Abacus is the only top player in the category that is publicly traded, receiving higher scrutiny than our privately-held competitors. Abacus will be producing a more detailed response to the inaccurate and false claims made by the short seller in the coming days. Abacus is committed to pursuing all available legal remedies against the individuals and entities responsible for orchestrating and disseminating the false and misleading short attack.
$ABL Abacus Life has announced a private exchange of public warrants. [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/abacus-life-announces-private-exchange-133400816.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/abacus-life-announces-private-exchange-133400816.html) Why would an institutional investor want shares over warrants? Liquidity?
Only reason we thrive. Any launch only company is going to become obsolete and the evolution of how SpaceX has become so dominant serves almost like an extinction level event for many space focused companies. Relativity is next. ABL already bowed out honorably. Firefly? Let’s see what happens to them but again launch focused. That will be their Achilles heel. The window is small before SpaceX destroys the field. I think RKLB is fortunate to have made these amazing strides.
Ask the ABL investors how that worked out for them
"Today we’re announcing major changes to our mission at ABL. We are stepping away from the commercial launch market and focusing our efforts on missile defense." Another one bites the dust, what rklb did in even small launch very impressive when so many who raised as much or more didn't get anywhere near their outcomes
ABL filed form "POS AM" today. I have never seen this type of filing before, nor do I really understand why they are amending the S1. Can anything be inferred by this filing? This "offering" is for insiders or "selling holders", so is the stock ready to fly, as this filing covers warrants (including private placements)? or i it going to tank? Does it change the insider lock-up period? Any insight from past SPAC cases would be great, thanks!
Got a few in SOUN and ABL
JBI is a great one! ABL has yet to prove itself. The others I have mentioned have been around long enough to weather the market and whatnot.
OWL ABL JBI (whacked recently)
Two of the rare legit deSPACs with news: ABL buying FCF Advisors. Also, Resolute Holding acquiring majority interest in CMPO.
[Abacus Life Provides Preliminary Second Quarter 2024 Results](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/07/18/2915633/0/en/Abacus-Life-Provides-Preliminary-Second-Quarter-2024-Results.html) \- ABL ABLLW [Abacus Life Announces Agreement to Acquire Carlisle Management Company SCA](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/07/18/2915613/0/en/Abacus-Life-Announces-Agreement-to-Acquire-Carlisle-Management-Company-SCA.html) \- ABL ABLLW ABL closed at $8.38; up about 10% after hours to around $9.25 "Abacus Life, Inc. (“Abacus” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: ABL), a leading buyer of life insurance policies and vertically integrated alternative asset manager specializing in specialty insurance products, today announced a definitive agreement to acquire Carlisle Management Company SCA (“Carlisle”), a leading Luxembourg-based investment manager in the life settlement space, **for approximately $200 million**. The acquisition of Carlisle, with approximately $2.0 billion in assets under management, is firmly aligned with Abacus’ continued expansion as a global asset manager." "Carlisle shareholders will receive consideration in the form of **$73.5 million in par value of Abacus bonds and 9.3 million Abacus common stock**, which are subject to closing adjustments and certain performance thresholds." $200 million - $73.5 million = $126.5 million; divided by 9.3 million shares = **$13.60 per share**. The 8-K filing says: "[Under the terms and conditions of the Share Purchase Agreement](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1814287/000181428724000045/abl-20240718.htm#:~:text=Under%20the%20terms%20and%20conditions%20of%20the%20Share%20Purchase%20Agreement), the aggregate consideration to be paid to the Sellers in the Transaction of approximately $200 million will consist of (a) newly issued shares of Abacus common stock, par value $0.0001 per share, with an aggregate value equal to 62.3% of the Estimated Purchase Price, **using a price per share of $13.05** (the “Closing Stock Consideration”)" Either way, seems Carlisle is valuing ABL shares about 50% higher than the market currently is valuing them.
The market is pricing in that it will blow up, and it's very likely correct. Just look at the first launch of a new rocket by other startup companies: Starship - blew up after 5 minutes, Firefly Alpha - blew up, ABL RS1 - blew up, Astra Rocket 3 - failed (several times), Relativity Space Terran 1 - failed, and their own Electron also blew up (although it was a ground software failure). I believe RKLB will dump on the news, even if Neutron gets relatively far into the launch (see LUNR). If you are bullish on them long-term, the real opportunity is buying them at a discount.
Even if you take SpaceX out of it, since there is a niche for small launch vehicles, there is a lot of competition. You have Firefly, ABL, Orbital, and Astra as direct competition just in the US. Rocketlab is ahead of Firefly, ABL, and Astra. Orbital Sciences has been around since the 80s though and has deep government connections. Plus there are a bunch of similar companies popping up globally. Though I suppose if you are going to gamble on a space start up then Rocket Lab is the best of the bunch.
$ABL issues 10 million shares, stock drops and the warrants go up. Could someone offer theories on why the warrants moved up? Thanks
$ABL issues 10 million shares, stock drops and the warrants go up. Could someone offer theories on why the warrants moved up? Thanks
BO: Still no consistent launch program to send cargo and crew anywhere. But BE-4 engines are pretty cool... RKLB: Electron is 4 feet in diameter and can only lift up to 600ish pounds to orbit. Basically it can only do tiny science projects. Neutron still years out. Firefly: Not fully proven out. Also current rocket too small for crew. ULA: For what it's worth, they're capable, just slow. And they have a much more diverse orbit offering. And now for the others: Astra: Bankrupt? Also too small. Virgin Orbit: Bankrupt. Also too small. ABL: Delayed almost 1.5 years on their second flight. First flight failed within 10 seconds. Relativity: Terran 1 cancelled. Terran R in development (2026?) Stoke: Too early to tell And that's it. That's the entire landscape of the US Space Program minus SpaceX and SLS. The gap between SpaceX and the others is only going to grow too. There was a thesis floating around for the last few years that all the small launch vehicle companies were there to fill in the gap SpaceX would leave behind once Starship came online and Falcon9s were retired. Which, to me, increasingly becomes an asinine theory. 1) SpaceX launch cadence on F9s is insane. They're launching almost every other day from multiple sites. 2) "Starship only!" is all marketing from Elon. They are demonstrating currently they can run both programs simultaneously. 3) Even if they go Starship only, the $/kg makes it so that previously cost inefficient orbital-tug + payload setups are cost efficient. Why bother launching to specific trajectories when you can just slap a tug onto the back of your sat for 1/10th of the cost of a F9 or dedicated small launch and burn into your target orbit. 4) "But the backlog!" Bro that backlog is getting decimated the minute starships start launching once a week. 5) "but muh tactically responsive launch". Okay sure. But this is purely a strategic decision. If the Space Force decides that the best way to mitigate the fact that launches are hard targets during WWIII is to just...make every launch site in the US a fortress, tactically responsive, anytime anywhere is a dead idea. SpaceX to 1trillion valuation by 2030. The game is up.
In my opinion, Right now it might only be non-bag holding if you bought before May 14th, otherwise this stock will hurt in June if you bought after. Like me. But, the level dropped this far makes feel okay, I'm at a 50% loss from my Wednesday at this casino. However, "Upon closing of the Transactions, which is currently expected to occur in June 2024: -- BNED will receive gross proceeds of $95 million of new equity capital through a fully backstopped $45 million Rights Offering and a $50 million new equity investment (the "Private Investment") led by Immersion Corporation (NASDAQ: IMMR) ("Immersion"); the Transactions are expected to infuse approximately $75 million of net cash proceeds after transaction costs; -- The Company's existing second lien lenders will convert approximately $34 million of outstanding principal and any accrued and unpaid interest into BNED Common Stock; and -- The Company has received commitments to refinance its existing asset backed loan facility, pursuant to an agreement with its first lien holders, providing the Company with access to a $325 million facility (the "ABL Facility") maturing in 2028. The refinanced ABL Facility will meaningfully enhance BNED's financial flexibility and reduce its annual interest expense. Through the Rights Offering, BNED will issue 900,000,000 shares of its common stock, par value $0.01 per share (the "Common Stock") at a cash subscription price (the "Subscription Price") of $0.05 per share. In the Rights Offering, BNED will distribute to each holder of record of its Common Stock on May 14, 2024 (the "Record Date") one non-transferable subscription right (each, a "Subscription Right") for every share of Common Stock owned by such holder on the Record Date, and each Subscription Right will entitle the holder to purchase 17 shares of Common Stock. Each holder that fully exercises their Subscription Rights will be entitled to Over-Subscription Rights to subscribe for additional shares of Common Stock that remain unsubscribed as a result of any unexercised Subscription Rights, which allows such holder to subscribe for additional shares of Common Stock up to the number of shares purchased under such holder's basic Subscription Right at $0.05 per share." What's even a bit more sus to me is "If any Subscription Rights remain unexercised upon the expiration of the Rights Offering after accounting for all Over-Subscription Rights exercised, the standby purchasers led by Immersion, Outerbridge Capital Management, LLC and Selz Family 2011 Trust will collectively purchase, at the Subscription Price, up to $45 million in shares of Common Stock not subscribed for by the Company's stockholders." Free money for the wrong side? Even though it is still subject to a vote on 6/5. My move is I am going to try to turn 50% to a less ball crushing loss, but still take the loss.
No you’re the one confused. The ABL has payments. If someone who’s supposedly wealthy and doesn’t have a job, how are they paying the loan if they’re not selling assets to pay for it? Man I guess you’re the best investor in the world since you’d know when the bottom of the stock market is? You realize if your collateral value drops below a certain amount it gets liquidated to pay for your ABL right?
You are confused my friend. You don’t sell assets to get an ABL, you pledge them as collateral, but they are still “yours” (unless you get blown out of your trade) “Ask yourself if you’d be willing to leverage up when borrowing is cheap” ….. uh, yes, obviously, that is the ideal time to take on leverage.
It's not over until it's over. But yea those probably will expire worthless. ABL. Always buy leaps
It did appear to work out for ABL in this instance.
ABL. Always be loosing. Loss porn is tactical to keep them guessing. About 96% of the loss porn you see here is evidence for tax and opsec purposes. I shouldn’t really say anymore. Don’t want to spoil the party.
Counter: small-sats are non-viable as a business as evidenced by every single small-sat provider pivoting to small-medium/medium in the 1,000kg+ range. Relativity just cancelled their Terran 1 program to go straight to Terran R. Astra is currently struggling to stay alive after failing one too many Rocket 3 launches. Virgin Orbit straight up just went bankrupt. ABL Space Systems skipped that entire weight class and went straight for 1,000kg+ range. Rocketlab is also trying to do develop bigger with Neutron. The unit economics won't work out. Electron is a TINY rocket and anything in that weight class will soon be better served by taking a Transporter mission on a Falcon 9 strapped to a space-tug that boosts it into it's actual orbit. Anything bigger...well it won't fit on Electron anyways and who knows when RKLB's Neutron will be ready. Not to mention they're only 4 years younger than SpaceX and in that time, they're still stuck on Electron.