DYOR

soleil---

Major liquidity drain from SPCX IPO. But RKLB has a big opportunity long term to take over a lot of the mid-size launch system market once SPCX starts shutting down the Falcon system (in favor of Starship). RKLB has been super consistent on their launch schedule & total payload delivery to orbit, so they need to keep executing in winning new contracts and growing their own launch capacity. That said, likely space stocks are generally going to chop for a while as continued industry sentiment around SPCX remains unclear + beta names remain under pressure due to macro themes. Rn is probably not the absolute best entry for RKLB/space generally but if you have a truly long term horizon and/or high conviction (DYOR) it could be considered pretty appealing after the sharp sell off.

Hypnot1se

It's not a bubble for AI, it's a dramatic hardware upcycle caused by the AI buildout. The bubble lies in hardware companies, but be advised that this is not some speculative bubble where people are throwing money into random companies making no money. This is a product of cyclicality in hardware. These hardware companies are selling what are essentially either commodities (DRAM) or products that are destined to become commodified over time (GPUs). Right now, hardware companies are enjoying absurd margins due to the land grab in capex from scalers and selling every chip they can produce. This never historically lasts. Digestion periods, supply gluts leading to margin collapse and execution missteps are all inevitabilities that are being priced in via a forward discounting mechanism in hardware. This is why we're seeing extreme multiple compression in companies like MU and even NVDA. The market isn't using a linear model to project the valuation of these companies. Scalers will keep increasing capex over the coming years, but the market prices these supply side cyclicals based on the *rate of change* not on the absolute change itself. Thus, when underlying commodity prices (the canary in the coalmine for cyclicals) begins to decelerate, smart money typically immediately begins exiting and the stock peak is reached up to a year before the earnings actually peak before eventually sliding. This is why the recent collapse in stock prices for the memory industry has occurred in my view. Right now these companies look cheap and like you're paying peanuts for their upcoming earnings (because you are). The issue is that when the earnings peak and they guide for no growth or even a decline in earnings (probably some time next year for the memory industry), people who have gotten stuck in the stock based on the 'fundamentals' of today are going to start to get very nervous and we'll see mass capitulation when the supply glut actually hits and margins collapse. AI is real. It will change the world. It won't change the economics of commodity markets and it won't mean that all companies involved in the AI sector will be printing infinite money with 80-90% margins forever. That just makes zero sense. NFA DYOR ETC.

eromynAwonKtnoDI

DYOR by using LLM so it adds to ai profits.

DDnHODL

How’s the bubble now ? There is no AI bubble and it’s real industrial shift. NFA, DYOR!!!

melvinzee

If SNDK moves green pre-market. It will immediately puke -15% when the market opens. NFA DYOR