EU

Key-Appointment1064

For context I’m a US/EU dual citizen and travel frequently between both. Europe is in shambles. Swiss francs are somewhat independent of massive EU regulatory hurdles and the ECB’s years of “zero-interest policy.” Europe has some very incompetent leaders who have caused Europe’s economy to become anemic. German car industry, which is a motor of Europe and Germany, is struggling like never before. Energy prices are the highest they’ve ever been since COVID and will continue to rise once the real oil shock hits and the last remaining GCS energy arrives in Europe. Aside from a bit a few gas and oil fields in Norway and UK, Europe imports all of their energy. Gasoline in Germany is currently close to €2.50/l, around $10/gal. Diesel is already past that. Hitting Nordstream was one of the worst decisions that the west ever made. Right now, we could have pressured Russia to the negotiating table. Europe needs Russian oil, and if the idiotic Zelenskyy US puppet state hadn’t blown up nordstream, Europe would be in way less of a mess.

cheeshomie

Neste Oiy. Renewable jet fuel from Finland which becomes mandatory to use in the EU over the next thirty years. No brainer in my opinion

genjky

Short BABA. Plastics going up and China is resorting to buying high premium polymers from EU and USA

Deep90

I don't think this is what they had in mind, but there are actually a number of considerations. For starters, Hungary is in the EU which would be subjected to GDPR laws. India has similar with DPDP. On the US side of things, military, defense, aerospace, government, and even healthcare (especially medicare & medicaid) all strongly prefer or require their data to remain in the US. That is just the data centers. American nuclear technology is also regulated. If I'm correct, you need to go past the DOE, NRC, and maybe the EAR. Which is not even considering what agencies India or the EU would require you to speak with.

wha2les

When the world turns to shit, the dollar is still the safe haven. Maybe it is a knee jerk reaction, but its not like you have any alternative currency. Chinese Yuan isn't able to fill the void, the conflict affects the EU very hard so the Euro is kinda out of the question too. GBP isn't what it used to be since the empire is no more. So the dollar is the only thing we have right now as a safe haven. The stupidity of America is definitely going to hasten the development of alternatives though.

NotMe357

"Rubio: If Europe won’t allow us to use the bases we man and fund for their defense when we need them we ought to close them down and remove our troops from Europe. If they get attacked by Russia we can discuss whether or not we have the time to help." EU Defence stock probably is gonna pump in the next few days.

phillydawg68

I'm buying property in EU. It's a bond

GaryTheSoulReaper

The euro ? Brexit - then you have other countries bitching about EU overstep (while happily taking EU money)

Subject_Delay5447

Natural gas prices in the EU are insane right now. Thinking about selling my own actual gas to cover my losses

ChollyWheels

Ultimately, money is energy -- you're rich if you can buy things, and things take energy to create. Ideally a dollar (or whatever) is a measure of the energy to create the thing you're buying. The Technocrats proposed pegging the value of a dollar to a quantum of petroleum for that reason. Current events are a serious threat to the EU on many levels -- Russia is richer and emboldened, and the EU is energy deprived, for starters. Meanwhile the USA is approximately energy independent.

RareGuarantee3532

630 tomorrow, Asia will dump, EU is mostly closed but will also dump, great down gap, then green candle

RealMcGonzo

I first noticed the Dollar Gloomers when the EU formed. "The Euro is going to kill the UDS!" They screamed, LOL. There's nothing magical about the Greenbacks that say it'll be king forever but to switch means to switch to something better. So far better isn't out there.

cristalarc

Because for as shitry as the current state is, most other countries are in worse position. Most of my friend circle had to leave Venezuela, and everybody who went to the US is in a far better position than those at EU / Australia.

Rock_or_Rol

China is calling for a ceasefire too US diplomacy is shit rn, but with EU and China brokering a deal, we might actually get a ceasefire With that being said, I don’t know what it’ll take for Iran to play along after all the assassinations and bad faith negotiations from the US and Israel. Still, China is their best way to come out of this. Iran’s threat this whole time is MAD, so.. I’d assume they’d prefer not to be destroyed themselves If we do get a ceasefire today or tomorrow, it probably won’t be for very long

RareGuarantee3532

Ok but what's the point of firing the generals that were opposed to ground invasion 3 days before the end of his deadline ? The former Iranian minister chatting with JDVance through Pakistan got killed in Bombing. All EU and Asian govt are planning and going live about long oil shortage. I mean is there any sign, appart from Mangotweets, that are showing any sign of peace ?

asfbrz96

No, they just tax the hell outta y'all in the EU

ian_coke77

A core Iranian demand is America leaving the region, and it's leverage to achieve this is holding America's host countries and their oil hostage via closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacking their oil facilities which they have in the past (mostly just signalling capability rather than permanent impact) So even if Saudi Arabia is able to produce oil despite Iranian attacks, the question is still how these Gulf states release their oil to the market. Saudi Arabia exported 6.2m barrels per day via the Persian Gulf but due to closure has had to redirect it to the Red Sea via Yanbu port, but this only recovers at most 3m bpd at max capacity. Other gulf states don't have this option. However, even this funnel can be targeted. Iran controls the escalation ladder. In such an event where Iran is losing the Hormuz bargaining chip, they still have Houthis in Yemen to create a double blockade at bab el mandeb, closing both the Persian gulf and the red sea. Houthis in the past have demonstrated capability to close it. Saudi Arabia could consider paying the Iranian Hormuz toll, but this legitimizes their domination of the gulf, funding a geopolitical and religious rival, and would likely result in US/EU sanctions. So in summary, Iran has demonstrated ability to strike all oil facilities in the region, maintains Hormuz domination, and can call upon Houthi allies to trigger a double choke point. Ultimately, I do believe the world will find a way to get oil to the market, by increasing production in venezuela and canada, and adjusting refining facilities and logistics for these feedstocks accordingly. But this isn't something that can be resolved in 12 months as supply chains are very inflexible in the short term.

rahul91105

Nah man, Iran is in the position to strong arm EU into paying toll for Hormuz and even lift some sanctions if they are feeling greedy. Trump on the other hand isn’t backing down after this (looks like a failure after losing two jets and needing to rescue soldiers.

digital-didgeridoo

Some EU countries are mulling limits on price gouging, since heating oil, and other energy is so critical. Pretty sure lot of countries already have this in place, unlike USA. India (and Pakistan too I guess) have slashed the taxes on gasoline sales, so the government itself takes the hit

v3ritas1989

I am from the EU. We kinda think rationally the first time we open our mouth. At least most of the time.

AllCapNoBrake

While nobody is ready for that convo, we absolutely need to kill the control/hold that the tiny hats have over the US/CN/EU/AUS. Then we can let the world know what the tiny hat's degenerate cousins also like to do to little boys.

wormtheology

You’re on fucking tar if you think 2030s are peak oil. The huge differences between the 2000s is that in post-GFC the US started to see the effects of their technological advancements in extracting oil and natural gas. The shale revolution allows the US to leverage itself as a maritime energy exporter. More supply potential will keep prices in check. This notion being pushed in financial media with “experts” that paper crude or paper WTI is going to see $150 a barrel is asinine. Remember that Japan, the EU, and the US all have money printers. People will not be allowed to get rich on an energy crisis the same way people aren’t allowed to profit off of a financial crisis.

WinterDice

It’s too bad the Air Force killed the Super Tucano purchase effort. What the US (or Ukraine or the EU) should do is find the kid that showed off the DIY $100 MANPAD system, hire him at $500k/year, and then have some professionals setup a manufacturing operation to pump out his system by the tens of thousands. Warfare has completely changed over the last few years and the West is way the hell behind the curve.

Synergiex

I doubt there will be an attempt to take it. He is stupid but hopefully not that stupid right? Or at least the advisors around him? Well that’s possible too since they are all paid shills of israel/aipac too Anyway if i were to bet this is what he will do: Analysis: Trump finally realized he f’ed up and trying to militarily take it will be a huge undertaking by itself, not just financially and death toll wise but also the image of this war in the world’s eyes. Way out: Trump looked for a way to have a deal. Iranians of course didnt accept and mocked him because 1) iran has the upper-hand 2) they dont have much to lose left 3) they dont trust trump and they dont believe this would be their last attempt. Conclusion: Trump cant commit to ground invasion especially right before elections and it will result in stagflation. So, since he is a big baby with a fragile ego, he will destroy everything with no respect to civilian life including power plants and rest of the infrastructure in iran. Iran will respond in similar manner to israhell and gcc. Trump will declare victory, and announce they are going back and tell EU to deal with hormuz strait closure by either paying up fees or opening theirselves Overall this will result in outrageous issues with lots of refugees as people wont even find water to drink, once infrastructure will be destroyed just like the zionists want. And it will become a never ending war between iran and gcc/israel. Israel will continue to expand.

Wafflez424

I do agree but at the same time things change very quickly in world politics, America would be easy to invade from north or south but we have friendly nations that we purposely keep weak and reliant on us for that very reason to provide buffers. The way things are going, the world might realign itself and if Canada + Mexico seek better relations with Europe and Asia versus US then it wouldn’t be that hard to overtime sneak troops into both places and build up an invasion force. Hell might not even have to sneak, US has bases all over the world, why not China or EU? Their both more then capable of it, just not really willing but with how the world is fracturing might not be a bad idea, what is US going to do? Fight EU or China over some bases which is perfectly reasonable, we can barely handle Iran at this point and don’t think even Trump would be stupid enough to go to war with most of the developed world at once. US used to have soft power that could have prevented the scenarios I mentioned but we pissed it all away

Cornwallace88

- Most likely illegal - Where not illegal, most likely frowned upon by your employer and profession - If your trading activity got picked up by regulators (who have tons of scans on irregular trading that occured right before big announcements) - it would be a slam dunk to notice you were an editor with access to insiders Haven't seen any responses recognizing that this differs by jurisdiction - which can involve up to 4 countries if each of the following were different: - Country of the exchange you're trading on - Country of the company you're trading - Country you're performing your trading from - Country you're a resident of Those could easily all be the same place if you were US-based trading a US company, but something to keep in mind. The safest assumption would be assuming the strictest rules applying. The US and EU are generally similar with a slight nuance on EU making things stricter as you dance toward the line of material non-public info. For your case, info from govt officials even about general economic action can absolutely still fall under this umbrella.

I_am_Nerman

I've seen EU 1st hand. No thanks. I've also been a patient in a Sao Paolo private health facility. It was as nice as anything in America. But my son got sick once hours outside of Sao Paolo in a very rural area. We visited a health facility that was very 3rd world. My wife, who is from Brazil, wouldn't even allow them to inject him to receive fluids for hydraton. The conditions were not sanitary. My family had 4 surgeries last year in the US. It was a crazy year. We basically had no wait times, had the best doctors and surgeons in the world using the best technology and techniques in the world. We only had to pay max individual out of pocket for the surgeries. It was a small fraction of the 100s of thousands that were billed.

nsfwnsfwnsfw33333

I think here in the EU people have woken up and the machine is slowly distancing itself from the us.

TJMBeav

Is there really any doubt how we open on Monday? Futes open down about 30 points on the S&P. All evening the futes drift lower, sniffing 0.75% on the slow and steady fall. Unexpectedly, oil prices drop 3% on rumors that France, in cooperation with the Ethiopian navy, was studying using small boat screens to protect convoys thru the straight. The Ethiopian navy has had success with throwing wet blankets to thwart I-rans flying lawnmower attacks In Lebanon the HOOT-ters unsuccessfully attempted to attack Jerusalem thru the air using Chinese weather ballon technology (as effectively demonstrated evading US air defenses several years back). IDF forces commented, anonymously, that the trick to shooting them down was to not lead the target to much. No successful attacks have been reported so far, but experts cautioned that it is early and these weapons only travel at super subsonic speeds equivalent to a large tortoise. Markets are falling, even as oil prices retreat, after reports that England plans a "muslim love" day on Easter Monday in an attempt to convince the powers in I-ran, that the English people feel bad for the poor abused elder clerics, and in no way endorse any move that originated in President Chumps nightly rantings. Markets appear to believe that if immigrant illegals do not also get a full days wages on Muslim Love day they will team with Greta and glue themselves in all traffic circles. Markets also are concerned that both Germany and Italy, while privately voicing support for the total obliteration of Iran, believe that EU law makes it illegal for them to form an axis, or alliance of any kind, especially if Japan also joins. EU legal experts estimate it will take weeks (or longer) to get a preliminary judicial verdict and any verdict would be immediately appealed by Hungry. In other news, casualties in Chicago continue to exceed those in Iran. Chicago's mayor pointed at ICE for the increased violence. "If you leave the homies alone they will just get drunk and pass out". Also, Governor Newsome made news when he called put Joe Rogan in a live broadcast. The governors where abouts are unknown, so he has not been able to respond to Rogans childish "bring on that bitch" tweet yesterday. Prediction markets currently have it at 99% no show for "that bitch". And that is the news/predictions

crisco000

We have no treaty with Ukraine. None. We had political promises at the time, but that’s about as good as the president who agreed to them. The only point you made that I agree with is us not starting wars of aggression. I just go further by saying we shouldn’t fund wars that have nothing to do with our country. It’s Ukraines problem and maybe the EU. It is not our war and no tax dollars should be spent on it.

Dave_The_Slushy

Here's my take on the negotiations right now between the EU, China, the GCC and Iran that are going on in London "So we are all agreed then. The next time that fugly skank of an oxygen thief talks at the UN, we just all walk out"

TimelyBodybuilder121

It will not care until most of Asia and the EU start to forcibly dump US stocks and treasuries to outbid each other for oil. The US is self sufficient when it comes to oil. Most of the EU, SEA, China, Japan, S. Korea aren't. These regions hold the most US treasuries and their pension funds hold the most US equity. Make of that what you will. Iran and Russia being under sanctions do not hold shit and they do not give a shit.

WrexyWrex

If all they wanted was to stop oil from flowing to China why couldn't they just tell Oman to stop sending oil to China? Why couldn't they approach UK, EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia and tell them they would now be buying China's share of the oil from now on? Even still, the US has massive leverage against gulf states, they could have easily just told them that gulf oil is not to be sold to China. Very easily. China basically told every country that runs their refineries that they could put taxes on any products used by their machinery and everyone fell in line. Just my thought is that our administration has no communication with our allies or something? Like do we have state ambassadors anymore?

wibble17

Out of curiosity, Where have you traveled to? It depends on what I have but I think I prefer the system in the EU, Japan than the US.

Unfamous_Trader

Can you imagine Microsoft trying to operate in the EU?

DeLu2

Idk man.. everything is against them. Only the strait of Hormuz is their weapon and each and other day we hear about officials from the top of their pyramid getting killed. Also NATO and the EU can’t keep buying oil at these prices forever. And they will not cut ties with the US either.

JoseLunaArts

Iran offered EU to pay for oil in euros. Dedollarization in action. The sin of Khaddafi was that he wanted to issue a pan-African currency that could compete with US dollar. This is why US went after him. The sin of Saddam Hussein was that he wanted eurodollar instead of petrodollar. This is why US went after him after he was an ally.

throw_mob

there wont be monopoly for sending **** to space by spaceX as all players EU,China,India will have very good incentive to keep that ability in their own country. i don't see that in current politic environment spaceX can trust to get more share, what i would expect that France and India start to raise their image in commercial side.

Garbage-Disposal-938

Yeah. Before the 2003 Iraq War US officials actually had meetings with UK and EU and planned it out first, got their cooperation in advance. For this Iran debacle, EU allies weren't even informed of it.

Va3V1ctis

The main problem regarding US Dollar in the future is, that most countries around the world (and I am not talking about just EU, Canada; Japan and Australia) see what is happening to Russia, Iran, etc. as they are banned from global markets through SWIFT system and then US Dollar and EURO or sanctioned through US financial might, and they look for alternatives. For years there was no real alternative, but now it looks like Chinese Yuan might be. Currently there is talk about using Chinese yuan for international trade within BRICS nations, and now Iran is demanding payments in Chinese yuan to pass Strait of Hormuz and countries are paying in Chinese Yuan and not in USD anymore. Main question now is, if more and more countries start paying in Chinese yuan, is US Dollar still the de facto global currency? What then means for US Dollar, it is anyones guess ... IMHO in time USA will need to give higher rates for bonds, and then pay even more for servicing its own debt, now it is over 39 trillions USD and raising faster and faster, in the past it took years for raising one trillion, now it took less then a year for 1 more trillion, and soon it will be less and less, and many economists are saying that even US growth wont be enough with such a pace. Tell me why should any country still believe in holding US treasury bonds and US Dollars if there is only question of time before US goes bankrupt?

Beginning-Luck-4026

I have my doubts on the EU and Asia paying a toll to a country threatening safe passage through international waters.

NotMe357

Soon or later he will join Putin to fight EU/NATO. Probably next year.

A55BAG

I was thinking something sexier like recovering a spy with [Fulton surface-to-air recovery system](https://www.google.com/search?q=Fulton+surface-to-air+recovery+system&client=firefox-b-d&hs=0PyU&sca_esv=fe05beb909c08b04&biw=1920&bih=919&sxsrf=ANbL-n4X7G1X_I6AVZo_GIXvociNJpbJAQ%3A1775217343886&ei=v6rPaZTjNYWQ1fIPs5q2qQE&ved=2ahUKEwiK3LeD0NGTAxWSJBAIHQfoL1kQgK4QegQIARAD&uact=5&oq=surface+to+air+recovery+system+ac130&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiJHN1cmZhY2UgdG8gYWlyIHJlY292ZXJ5IHN5c3RlbSBhYzEzMDIHECEYChigAUiAgAFQ8QdYon1wCXgBkAEAmAHqAaABxiGqAQczMC4xMC4yuAEDyAEA-AEBmAIzoAL2JMICChAAGEcY1gQYsAPCAgQQIxgnwgIKEC4YgAQYigUYQ8ICDRAAGIAEGIoFGEMYsQPCAgoQABiABBiKBRhDwgILEAAYgAQYsQMYgwHCAg4QLhiABBixAxjHARjRA8ICBRAuGIAEwgIWEC4YgAQYigUYQxixAxiDARjHARjRA8ICDhAAGIAEGIoFGLEDGIMBwgILEC4YgAQYsQMYgwHCAggQLhiABBixA8ICBRAAGIAEwgILEC4YgAQYxwEYrwHCAggQABiABBjLAcICCBAuGIAEGMsBwgIIEAAYFhgeGArCAgYQABgWGB7CAgcQABiABBgNwgIHEC4YgAQYDcICBhAAGB4YDcICBRAhGKABwgIEECEYFZgDAIgGAZAGApIHBzI3LjIyLjKgB_PyArIHBzE4LjIyLjK4B7EkwgcJMS45LjI4LjEzyAeaAoAIAQ&sclient=gws-wiz-serp&mstk=AUtExfA900bcqXs2wYHvgeiySxSBhe9tVzCBcVZHQsY-etyFmC2yhxkqMdkwwboMP7M0P2Z9hMimbqgFflRTF3p0l7rcOLQ9TFH1LtreDGtKLyo7p7mOR4BG3DkEYrdHIcK0EU0r9R6XlngBvJ8uJXp1hTyVAI8wpFLnZrMAl9cdv8opVXqdIauEyy7GDbTldwAMBdrMUFqrW4fEMjY5pzZcGL9LE-0PdGFSOmokFoPE5Q3LHd5O6HfaAykZRwdA0ZoS6_h2yY_ARRNIXYHZ8GOR0rVm&csui=3) (STARS) 😀

the_econominster

I think the issues are real If you look at the valuation and bring it in line with NVIDIA (using it's massive PE and it's 70% margin), you're looking at ~1.5T USD that is basically hot air. If you divide that over all EU and US citizens; assuming 10% is actively exposed, you're looking at 20K hidden destruction of wealth. It be the world's largest wealth transfer in history from the middle class to the 0.01% into a black hole. The problem is imho the amount of liquidity that is needed to prop this up. Even with a "small" free float, the liquidity isn't there. We know liquidity is a problem with blue owl doing a soft default as we speak and BOJ reversing the carry trade. Heck, the yield curve is steepening and 10yr rate is up, even the Treasury can't tap into the liquidity. Also; look up what happened when Aramco went public; it basically sucked the markets dry for a full Q, and Aramco is liquid gold AND a dividend play. Musk will never pay out shareholders, he's a growth guy that wraps the last innovation in the next one. He's like the monorail guy with a Twitter megaphone. Finally the business model does not make sense. All xAi founders have left Grok because none of them want anything to do with LLMs in space. The energy envelope is tiny. Due to radiation you're 2-3 generations behind + once launched you can't switch out the hardware. FPGAs are super vulnerable so that's not an option and ASICs are obsolete once you launch. Musk wants do do COTS but we know this is a problem. SEU for 3nm and 5nm hardware in space are already brutal. Then there's starlink which has congestion problems. If it grows into its valuation, you'd go back to DSL type speeds; which is backwards + there's this small problem called the keppler syndrome. The valuation only holds if you extrapolate the current launch capabilities to a global military fully vertical monopoly (and even that is a stretch; that's basically saying China, India, Russia and Europe don't matter). Remember Musk is stubborn and has a known history of ignoring basic laws of physics (FSD, curevac, spaceship1, solar shingles Tesla SEMI). He's a loud guy who started rich, takes insane risks, got lucky and rode the EV tailwind then saw an arbitrage opportunity at NASA and exploited it. The guy has a long long history of zero-sum grifts. If anything this is a massive tailwind for Eutelsat which has a far better track record and is actually ran by credible people...

fabian_677

Or the EU makes a deal with Iran to get oil and gas through the street of Hormuz and distance themselves more from the US as the US is seen as an unreliable partner that starts wars without a plan

Apprehensive_Law7629

A French ship passed through Hormuz this morning. Looks like EU leaders understood it’s more reasonable to deal with Iranian leaders than with Trump. If more ships go through the strait during the weekend then we are going to have a nice well ahead…

Aggravating_Ad7022

EU should start getting in to hormuz and buying crude oíl in Euros and give the big old middle finger to USA, and when everything id finnish send EU companys to rebuild Irán. EU need to get far away for USA shitshow till we are fully green

Apprehensive_Law7629

Not a good moment to be allies of USA (if they still have some apart from Israel). Hope other EU countries do the same. It’s easier to deal with Iran than with Trump.

t3ch1t

We are entering the lowest demand part of the year for natural gas and we have a ton of it in reserve. The peak of summer and winter are when the demand for natural gas is highest for cooling and heating. I just checked and our export capacity for gas is at its limit. New infrastructure would have to be built to meet demand and that will take time to build. This will limit the effect on the US price even though the price in the EU is 3 times as high. As for your second question the answer is they will only do that if they absolutely have to. It’s a catch 22. Oil is a backup fuel in the event that gas is unavailable or too expensive. But if both are expensive you either shut the power off or pick the cheaper of the two and electricity gets real fucking expensive. Short term the US price is insulated from the conflict. But the longer the war goes on and global NG prices stay elevated the more likely we build out infrastructure to export more to higher paying markets. Also every AI data center built greatly increases the demand for power. Which means more NG will be needed even in the off-peak seasons. Which will raise the price.

zimon85

Which proves once more that the stupid deal the EU made was just a humiliating dumb thing. It's supposed to cap tariffs at 15% but hete he is back for more. Either you stand up to bullies of you end up being punched every day

Intelligent_Land_419

EU has to get involved in that timeline. Not with US military collaboration but rather legitimizing a tollbooth for Iran. 

Diligent_Fondant6761

The problem is that there is no better alternative! As you see everything else can Destroyed by USA within days ( Iran, Venezuela, EU etc.)

Consistent-Bake-5666

brent 125 soonish, trump has 3 full days+ 1 for the EU markets

Swimming-Positive-55

TLDR Our allies buy our bonds and we’re losing allies They’re our allies not cuz they’re our buddies, but because we share mutual interests, and combine our financial, military, and tech systems to impose sanctions, establish control, and provide systems services and processes Iran now has the mid east, Japan and others by the balls and declared US bonds as “soaked in Iranian blood”. Also our military, tech, and fin services are being targeted We’re pushing for control of Greenland and South American countries, most of the issue is Greenland and Canada, as the EU and NATO are drafting war plans to fight us over Greenland. Meaning any shared financial, tech or military services are being threatened to be used against them Look I’m a dipshit I’m ngl, I’m in no place to give financial advice, but the basic foundation of American foreign policy and economics abroad is being ripped out by the roots rn. If we don’t get Hormuz back, if we continue to threaten and pull out of nato, there’s simply going to be less and less reason to do business with us. Notice our allies not allowing us to use their bases and such. To quote the Dutch, when trade doesn’t cross borders, soldiers do

NotMe357

It looks like TACO is making a bet that Iran will be force to make a deal with him by Bomb the hell out of Iran and EU/NATO will also be force to "fix" Strait of Hormuz by join this war or else they can't get oil down since USA's oil mostly don't go through Strait of Hormuz so it doesn't hurt them compare to EU/NATO. When TACO says that he "doesn't care" about Strait of Hormuz is just a lie so he can scare Iran into make a deal with him. Lets see who wins this bet.

GrossFleshSack

Need some quick advice. Does the strait have progress towards opening over the weekend? EU moving to secure it? Iran allowing ships through with a toll fee? Hold NTR over the weekend or sell?

Mal4kh

🥭 reaching a deal. When has this ever happened before? Ah, right with Ukraine, China, EU, Greenland, India, North Korea. All big wins.

ShittyUsernane1222

we all know SEC, CFTC and FDIC is missing in action in the US. Mystery low volume candles which counteract rational market pricing mechanisms which either fuck over bulls and bears keep happening. Market movements are extremely sus, especially with rising oil prices. could we wsb regards collectively agree to call up EU, international financial regulatory authorities / regulators and Interpol.

Conscious_Act3595

prediciton spy calls and oil put. Iran makes deal with EU and trump says mission acomplished eassyyy

Dossi96

I am actually surprised that it didn't went to $10 by now. No one in the EU is buying cars after what went down the last few years with Elon. Asia has better and cheaper manufacturers. The US couldn't give two flying fucks about the environment. Who is teslas target demographic by now?

Me-Regarded

Did you miss the news that pumped the market today??? EU said 40 countries are meeting next week to work on a solution to the strait issue. They are looking to allocate military assets as well.

TheMericanIdiot

Love it! Hope more GCC and EU counties do this! Stick it to the NeoNazis!!!

epyonxero

EU meeting to do 'something'

Upper-Difficulty660

This wasn't their responsibility. This was all tRump. The EU should never have to clean up after the sociopath screws the pooch. tRump should have to sit in the shit he created.

Sean_VasDeferens

Headline at AlJazeera "UK-led coalition of 40 countries vows action on Hormuz Strait gridlock". This may be what lifted the markets. It warms the heart to see the UK and the EU attempting to grow up and take care of themselves.

Orange_Codex

The US won't become a pariah overnight, but plenty of long-standing allies are out (e.g. Pakistan) and others (e.g. the UK and EU) are officially distancing themselves. Defence and big tech are specifically targeted.

LightOverWater

US economy is still impact by price of oil, inflation, and contagion. We're long enough in this conflict that others are getting more creative in wanting this open. Iran hurts more by having it closed; it's a big hit to their economy. Iran will not close it forever. UK is holding a meeting with 35 countries to get the Strait opened diplomatically. Basically, a lot of this is reaching a culminating point. Iran doesn't want the Strait forced open. It's inevitable that it will be. Iran's military has also been decimated. They're just bleeding out, not thriving. It seems Iran might loosen up and open the Strait with tolls and maintaining some control. I'm not sure if the West is okay with that. But that's certainly better for Iran than the current regime getting wiped out by the US and forcing the Strait open or other countries doing something as they feel the pain the most (EU/Asia).

inex001

Fair take but I’d push back on a couple points. BEV buses dominate short urban routes nobody’s arguing that, but try running 300 buses through a depot in a 2-hour window on battery charging, or maintaining range in -30°C Canadian winters, or running 500km express intercity routes without pulling the bus out of service to charge. Hydrogen wins those specific use cases and that’s exactly where Ballard plays, so it's not BEV vs hydrogen since they serve different route profiles and both grow in a mandated transition. Bottom line is you don’t need hydrogen to win the war, just its corner of it. On marine, agreed methane and methanol are the near-term shipping play and Ballard’s marine business is tiny right now, but that’s not required for them to see the turnaround I described. The thesis is bus and rail where they already have 1,800 buses deployed, 250 million km of field data, and the EU and California legally requiring zero-emission fleets by 2029-2030. At $2.41 with $1.83/share in cash, the market is pricing that entire operating business at essentially zero despite record revenue growing 43% YoY. Niche product yes, but niche in a market legally mandated to grow 50x with no serious competitor that has remotely comparable field data or OEM relationships.

pashalka31

In 1994 Viktor Bout was dispatched by an ex KGB officer, St Petersburg politician, and current mobster named Vladimir Putin to trade soviet surplus arms to the Taliban for heroin that the Russian Mafia who took over the government could use to enslave/trade to the people of Russia for their paper shares of the former Soviet socialist state awarded to them by Yeltsin.   Behind Trump and Epstein, Viktor Bout was the most important piece on Putins Russian mafia chessboard.   The Soviet Union was the largest war machine in world history. The entire economy was based on destroying the west.  When it collapsed it had more arms than any empire in human history.   And those weapons all made it to every genocide, war, conflict, or massacre in the world by way of one man-  Viktor Bout.   From Charles Taylor in Liberia to the ethnic cleansing in Yugoslavia to the invasion of Ukraine, you can track it by its supply chain logistics.   Army runs on food, fuel, and ammunition.  And they all get moved by way of the path of least resistance to their point of use.  For anyone whose army or gang ran ak-47's chambered in 7.62x39mm that means it came from Russia.   In 1994 Putin also engineered the Russian invasion of Chechnya.  Since Kazakstan declared its independence, Chechnya and Iran became the necessary gateway to Afghanistan where the worlds heroin was produced in the 1990's.   Weapons are heavy so they tend to travel by rail or truck.  So they take the low road rather than the high mountain pass as much as possible.  That path led through Iran.   Drugs are much lighter and easier to carry so in the 1990's they are the preferred currency of organized crime next to cash or more recently, crypto.  As Putin and his Mafia of gangsters traded the worlds largest surplus of guns for heroin, then traded the heroin for all the critical industry, oil and gas, metals, fertilizer, uranium etc that made them billionaires in Russia, they had almost everything they needed to complete their conversion from psychopathic street thug to legitimate respectable oligarch.  ( Putin now makes $750M a day off of this war. ) But they were still trapped in the hyper violent hell on earth they themselves created between St. Petersburg and Moscow and wanted out.   So they laundered that money into the UK and US using Jeffrey Epstein and Donald Trump's commercial real estate.  They tried Trump's casinos first but collapsed them under the mass of $1.4 TRILLION.  It's a lot to hide in a craps table. But they made an asset out of Trump by having Epstein set up and produce a VHS of Trump raping a 13 year old little girl. (This was the video that DEA/FBI agent Bob Levinson was shown just before Russian intelligence baited him to their proxy state: Kish island Iran)  So they collapsed the casinos into bankruptcy, murdered Mark Etess, Jonathan Benanav, and Stephen Hyde and started using commercial real estate instead. They would hyperinflate the valuation, then sell it back and forth to each other passing the bulk of the cash back under the table.   As you worked 40-60 hrs a week to save up for a down payment on a house down the street and run comparables, the cost of your place went up 4-12x by comparison,  but your wages didn't. So you paid the corruption tax multiple times. (You are the victim in Leticia James lawsuit against Trump and this is why he claims Mar-a-Lago is worth $1B and refuses to share his tax records.)  But it all tracked back to Viktor Bout and a Egyptian man named Al Zawahiri whom Putin brought into Russia between 1996-97, managed by  young patriotic FSB officer named Alexander Litvenenko and cashflowed to fund an organization the Saud ruling family started called Al Qaeda.  Al Zawahiri was the key man in Iran that allowed the Russian jewish Mafia to move those same guns and heroin through a muslim country as long as Putin could hold Iran as it's proxy state perpetually. (Same basic play as Assad in Syria until it collapsed and assad ran to Moscow. His replacement was a Al Qaeda operative handpicked by Al Zawahiri)  Hence why Putin and Trump rely on their co-conspirator Netanyahu to pound the drum of Iranian nuclear capacity for 30+ years. In 1999 Putin then blamed a non-existent islamic entity called the "Liberation Army of Dagestan" from Chechnya for blowing up some Russian apartment buildings. Putin committed that terrorism, but that started the "War on Terror" that 2 years later took U.S. troops to Afghanistan and Iraq.   Putin created the demand for the weapons he had in abundance by dragging the US into a 20 year war at the same time he started an economic war against the U.S. by devaluing the dollar with rigged real estate while leasing U.S. and EU politicians and podcasters cheaply and secretly (FBI Arctic Frost investigation that Trump had Patel disappear then fire every FBI agent that investigated him) It was all enabled by the greed of wall street bankers  and hedge fund managers who would do business with anyone for money: (Jeffrey Epstein and Jes Staley at JP Morgan Chase, Leon Black at Bank of America etc)  But it left an evidence trail of deep trafficking ruts through Ukraine, Iran and Venezuela. Putin invaded Ukraine as the decorruption audits for NATO and EU membership exposed his corruption there (Kolomoiskiy).  Putin instructed Trump to assassinate the Iranian general Qassem Soleimani as the General began realizing that the same drug gangs he fought earlier in his career were funded by the same people shooting at his men from Israel.   So when Viktor Bout was recorded by the DEA on the border of Colombia and Venezuela trading soviet rocket launchers for cocaine it stalled Putins operation.   Putin then used his asset Trump to clean up.  Trumps son and security guard awarded a contract to Silvercorp (Jordan Goodreau) to send Luke Denman and Airan Berry into Venezuela where they were set up to be captured and traded back to the U.S. for Fat Leonard and Alex Saab. (Key men in Putins espionage and money laundering circuit) Putin assassinated Litvenenko with polonium laced tea and  kidnapped Britney Griner who was then traded for Putins most incriminating secret chess piece- Viktor Bout.  Bandar Saud had ran interference in the UK demanding prime minister Tony Blair disband the special investigation unit researching Zawahiris Swiss accounts or he "would no longer be able to help the UK stop terrorism".  The 7/7 bus and tube bombings in London sealed the deal and Blair disbanded the SIO.  Tonys is now bolting out of retirement and on Trump's "board of peace" as his wife had been funded by both Prevezon (Russian real estate front) and the Saud ruling family via the Al Yamamah arms trafficking case she represented them in.  This is what "the Epstein files" is.  During the Cold war there were only a few gateways across the iron curtain.  Israel was the major one because it was formed in 1948 by 650,000 refugees.  70% were from the Soviet bloc.  Robert Maxwell traded espionage stolen from the US to Moscow  to build the IDF with arms smuggled through Ukraine.  The Zionist Mafia created the Likud party/Netanyahu to control Israel at the same time they infiltrated the US Republican party via Ronald Reagan and Zionist operative Henry Kissinger managed all the U.S. presidents from inside the oval office. The Saud ruling family funded the Zionists for Iran Contra as Jeffrey epstein ran aviation logistics for les Wexner out of Rickenbacker AFB.  Now they can't stop lying as their transnational corruption eats them alive. Corruption is cancer. But it ALWAYS takes the path of least resistance-   Politicians and Billionaires.  

Prudent-Corgi3793

Because it responded to comments from the Iranian president, reported by their state media, as told to the EU Council president, not to anything Trump said

wishful_tinker

I mean some of it is priced it - refineries are definitely priced in. Midstream is partially priced in. But definitely has a lot more potential for upside. Never trust orange man. I guess the only thesis for oil recovery is if EU manages to break a deal that excluded U.S. Any case, I'm with you brother.

Kinu4U

US oil is different. Europe doesn't have refineries for it. And if EU tanks .. then you can bet USA will tank, maybe not at the same pace .. but things will go downhill for everyone. The same is if USA tanks

swagpresident1337

EU doesn‘t have much of a navy u fortunately.

MaleCowShitDetector

Oh no lets get this straight, I'm just saying that the market is overblowing the whole thing. That doesn't mean price wont go up or down, it's just that it's so detached from reality that if you pull up radar data and decide to bet on the fact that war is happening you will still end up losing money just because the market is irrational. There is definitely a disruption in the chain but most of it will ease out in a few months, making the dent absolutely minimal. I would've bet against either Asian markets or EU markets if you wanted to succeed.

thunderbird89

He also underestimated just how committed the new Ayatollah would be. Like dude, you killed his father, you really expect him to kowtow to you after that?! I *will* challenge #3, though. It's not a matter of strength, because funny enough, the EU has more minesweeper hulls than the US does, especially considering that the four Avenger-class vessels kept in Bahrain were decommissioned last year. Those sure would have come in handy now... As things stand, he's forced to rely on the LCS hulls with minesweeping packages, which are not nearly effective or numerous enough to make a difference in the theatre.

TimelyBodybuilder121

Well the small spikes will definitely be based on news, but I'd say the rise in WTI crude from 60 to 95 is 100% to do with the fact that around 40% of global supply has been disrupted. Could also go a lot higher given China and most of Asia has a bigger oil problem than the EU so they will certainly be forced bid up oil prices the longer this goes on.

Treverer

To your government? Bruh, you’re German as well. And I don’t even live in Germany currently, but another EU state. And oh jolly me, what a loser slave I am for I have to drive to my fucking job

Footner

I’m sure middle powers, EU and china could project force if they came to an agreement

NoBailOnReddit

Odd day: we are winning, so much winning, Iran is begging Even day: we gonna bomb them for some more weeks Somewhere in between: screw you EU. you and your strongly worded letters.

Equivalent-Sea-9006

I think the EU is gonna try real hard to stay out of this one, even sacrifice NATO over it. They have nukes of their own and are sharing them as a detergent towards Russia. The Ukraine war is a much more important issue for the EU than Iran. And as long as Russia is busy in Ukraine it cant join in the middle east, that would be suicide.  An escalation in Iran with involve its neighboors, and whatever defence deals they have. Like Pakistan, then China at some point.  The real issue here is that yet again the US will go clear of a treat on their own soil. Just like the previous 2 times. Given that they started this them coming out on the other side as yet a even larger super power is a dreadful thought. Basically an insentive to fuck around elsewhere cause they wont ever find out. 

Equivalent-Sea-9006

So, a nothing new burger?  He has the chance, an historic one, to address the Athemis 2 launch and stake out a course to the MOON, its HUGE you know! Could have done a JFK kind of speach.  But no. After a day of getting snubbed by everyone from Iran, the EU and his own Supreme Court, he upheld the worst possible senario.  Draw out the conflict well into april. Not give any confirmation as to neither a goal or retreat strategy. Marked gonna continue to yoyo in the meanwhile. 

BleuBrink

Funny EU doesn't get oil thru the strait either. Mangotard can't comprehend the price of a global commodity isn't region bound.

Responsible-Corgi-61

It's a World War if major powers step in to start fighting... but the EU wants nothing to do with this, Russia is getting devastated by fighting Ukraine who is also using the drone strategy to cripple them, and China is figuring out the best way to come out on top of all this or capture Taiwan while the US is going through its empire's death throes. If the infrastructure is gone then there is nothing left to do but suffer. There is nothing the world can do to stop this from causing a global recession/depression. Numerous nations are going to suffer to an unimaginable degree these fragile supply lines being rendered obsolete. Everyone is going to strongly hate the US and Israel.

Whipitreelgud

Uncle Phil never imagined tariffs in the Nike business model. Competition in key categories is fierce and Nike doesn’t take fit as seriously as other brands. The Brannock device isn’t the gold standard for fit. Pinning your hopes of growth on China is a flawed strategy is almost funny. The idea of a global brand never contemplated geopolitical repercussions of the home country. And they’re bloated in head count. They need to slash EU and US HQ headcount.

Looking_For_FunX6969

The world isn't waiting for the US 😂 China way ahead and EU trying to keep up Middle East countries know and have been trying to prepare for oil demand going down by going for solar as well Trump going for "clean" coal and trying to sell US oil to the world 🙄

BrightEnd2316

Well he did say 1) we don't care about their oil  2) EU countries if you are suffering that much go and take it or buy ours 3)And finally the most important he didn't say as we speak our brave marines are swimming closer to Kharg island So he is happy to bring them back to stone age from distance and I guess in this context that's a positive But stocks were high on some unsubstantiated hopium to the point that no immediate resolution/ not enough positive news somehow is a negative..

EyeSea7923

Nah, read off the teleprompters. Just called EU a bunch of pussies, but that's priced in for decades.

Competitive_Ride

He should leave and China and EU can deal with it. Paying them a toll or whatever has to be cheaper than intercepting missiles all day. Then GCC can go back to blowing billions on football players and line shaped cities on deserts

NotMe357

If they only need Uranium then Iran can leave it somewhere and tell TACO to come and collect it without any fight. That will help TACO save faces and Iran can stop the war when NATO/EU/China make a deal with them to open Strait of Hormuz. The problem is Netanyahu. That guy is evil so he may do something sick to keep this war going until Iran is no longer here.

mido_sama

That what’s the prices are in Asia the shortage hit them 1st now it’s hitting Africa and EU soon it’ll be the Americans.

inex001

$BLDP Ballard Power Systems. They're the dominant fuel cell engine supplier for hydrogen buses and trains with 40-60% Western market share, $550M cash against a $715M market cap meaning the entire operating business is essentially free right now. The new CEO just posted the best quarter in company history flipping gross margins from -13% to +17% in 12 months using the exact same turnaround playbook he ran at SunPower, and a cost reduction program called Project Forge hits serial production mid-2026 and cuts their manufacturing costs 70% which isn’t priced in yet. Beyond that the Iran war just made $100+ oil the new baseline which for the first time in this technology’s 47-year history makes hydrogen buses cost-competitive with diesel on total cost of ownership, and the EU and California mandates legally require zero-emission bus fleets by 2029-2030 so this demand isn’t discretionary and the market they already dominate is projected to grow from $1.6B to $78B by 2034 meaning they don’t need to capture new share they just need to hold what they already have. Their next earnings is May 12 and will be the first report that will show whether the oil shock is converting to signed orders which is the institutional re-rating trigger, downside is structurally limited because $1.83/share in cash means you can’t lose more than 21 cents on the dollar at current prices, and the reverse DCF is almost comical: for this stock to be fairly valued today you’d have to assume a 47-year-old company with dominant market share and record revenue somehow generates zero cash flow forever. Not financial advice, do your own DD, but if you want a high-upside asymmetric setup with a hard floor this is the cleanest one I’ve found.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

chaide123

Wait until we leave NATO too and lose support and EU sells American securities

WrexyWrex

US exports of distilled spirits to Canada fell 70% (!) last year. That's because there has been a ban on U.S. spirits sales across most Canadian provinces Perhaps even more striking was the 35% decline in US whiskey exports to the EU -- where there was neither a ban nor retaliatory tariffs. (EU retaliation was announced but has been suspended multiple times and never gone into effect) per Catherine Rampbell, Economist at Bulwark We don't even need tariffs anymore, countries are just boycotting us lmao [](https://bsky.app/profile/crampell.bsky.social)

WSB-mods-are-

EU is about to monitor the shit out of this situation 

Diddly_eyed_Dipshite

Dude that's naiive as hell. Fwiw I agree with you, and I feel pretty secure investing im the transition here in Europe because the pathway is clearly laid out, all sides are aligned on the problem, there is a long term strategy and its easy to see the industries that are growing and have the most potential to grow as the transition spreads across electrification, transport, energy, and so on. Energy independence is Europe's key goal over the next decade, initially spurred on by environmental needs but now reinforced and sped up from geopolitical needs. I would find it hard to do the same thing in the US. Trump is the most anti-renewables hater ever, paying billions in taxpayers money just so wind farms dont go ahead, the US is going backwards, undeveloping itself by investing in coal and oil. Its a very short term strategy, has no continuity, has no political agreement. And to he honest when Dems were in they were better sure, but still not that great and oil still was favoured. If I was investing in sector ETFs like energy, ESG, Electrification, I'd go developed world ex-US or maybe even developed + EM small caps. But in 10 years time the leaders will be those who are safer and more prosperous i.e. China, EU, parts of Africa... and way way way down the list will be the US.

PrettyPleaseYo

The American school system is built to form obedient factory workers. Not critical thinkers who would be tempted to start any kind of revolution. Plus most people are stuck in survival mode working all the time, if you risk your job you risk your right to health care. By attending a protest you risk loosing your job. It’s simply not as safe to protest as it is in the EU. You and your family risk getting f#cked.

rmp266

Thats kinda the dream scenario for Iran (power and influence at all time high) China (enemy economy crippled) and Russia (EU reverts to russia for oil and gas again, Ukraine probably be forced to concede the war). How are people not understanding Trump is a Russian asset yet after all these years and events lol

DroppingGrumpies

How about you dispute what I said.. Give me actual factual information as to why I’m wrong. There’s a reason why the EU parliament just voted in tougher immigration policies on “irregular immigrants” lol… cause you can’t call them “illegal immigrants”. Tougher policies including sending them to “hubs”… lol… but no, there’s no problem in the EU and it’s just all Fox News propaganda

JamUpGuy1989

Everything is still shit. The leaks for the speech tonight is basically saying we’re losers AND the Strait is still closed (telling our EU partners to figure it out). And the DOW is up because…?

Me-Regarded

Ber case: Boots on ground, leaving NATO, more unhinged threats I can't even fathom. Bol case: Taco packs up and leaves, let Europe clean up his mess. Most likely this will open the strait because EU didn't help us and Iran only hates us. Does this sum things up?