EU

Somewheredreaming

China needs a strong US/EU for export. If US market fails, they dont buy stuff from China. If EU also struggles neither do they. But even with just US having troubles its really bad for China. So simply said China is the last place you wanna be invested in. Outside the US and EU markets China has nowhere to export to that has enough demand. Plus the EU runs down preparing trade (many actual meaningful trade deals in the last months) and tech infrastructure for that Scenario. (Wero to taker over and develop alongside Visa/Mastercard till its big enough or in case of emergency) Wont be great, thats for sure but from all players the EU probably has the best chances, especially given it tries to network with other players on the World stage.

UglyT

What the hell are you talking about? You're babbling nonsense. Try and actually put a coherent thought together before just mashing the keyboard next time. I never said there weren't lobbyists. Honestly them spending 1.5bn is far less than I would have expected. And what you mentioned there isn't foreign policy. So I picked two different countries, well of course I did - I was demonstrating how they can choose their own foreign policy. Would be weird to choose two countries with the same policy to demonstrate that wouldn't it? What it does do is disprove your statement that the EU runs foreign "politics". And the reason why someone said that search was stupid was because the spike was after people had voted to leave the EU. Voting on the biggest policy change in 50 years without understanding it is absolutely fucking stupid.

Careful_Response4694

China still gets about 20% of their oil. Iran is not the only middle eastern country they used to import from. Even then, Iranian shadow fleets can't be relied upon if the war escalates. If this drags on two more months I would expect the EU to massively bid up saudi/US/african oil, due to spr depletion, and potentially even Russian crude due to sanctions waivers. At that point India has limited purchasing power compared to the EU, China, and tech-producing East Asian states (Japan, SK, Taiwan, Singapore).

ThePre-FightDonut

I think people need to realize the geopolitical implications of what has happened, and that there is functionally no way for the US to regain regional hegemony in the Gulf absent a protracted and costly land invasion. This is our Suez Canal moment. Coupled with the fact that the US has now bombarded Tehran and killed Iranian leaders in the middle of diplomatic talks three times in the last two years, even if the US said "let's end it," there's insufficient credibility for any short term ceasefire, and also no incentive for Iran give up their leverage on the Strait unless they're given guarantees that are politically and Institutionally untenable to the US (cessation of hostilities by US/Israel, no more weapons to Israel, complete withdrawal from the region, Iran can pursue their civilian nuclear program and military ballistic missile programs, etc.). Therefore: (A) Current scenario continues? Oil up. (B) Iran engages in bilateral agreements with China/Russia/India, passage in exchange for security or economic guarantees, tolls everyone else, and keeps the US/EU/NATO out entirely? Oil up. (C) US invades in an effort to open the Strait/reestablish military hegemony in the region? Oil up. The administration can talk all day, but they can't print barrels.

BatteryAcid420_

Propfreading would be the part where a guy on reddit doesn‘t repeat the „haha UK dumb“ narrative when that‘s a part of the following lore: EU makes sure Brexit hurts UK. EU media pretends UK is dumb for leaving EU. If you remember damaging EU countries is literally the opposite of what the EU is designed to do then it‘s easy to think about it for a second.

BatteryAcid420_

If the EU isn‘t a benefit for all, then why would googling „what is the EU“ be stupid under ANY circumstances? It wouldn‘t. You don‘t even see how you set up the frame yourself. Understanding what the EU does is relevant, pretending it‘s already understood and positive is as ignorant as having no clue about it.

BatteryAcid420_

„What makes you say there would be no wars in Europe without the EU“ That‘s such a hilarious statement when you‘re pretending to understand EU politics. You‘re clearly repeating misinformation that was spread by lobbys and you haven‘t spent any time thinking about it. „Very different policy of Hungary“ Well first off you‘re pretending the exception is the rule here, good riddance. Secondly the foreign policy the EU is following is not supported by the will of the people in member states. It does not matter how you describe this, the EU is taking up responsibilities that were never granted to it. And you have to be INSANELY ignorant to put what I‘m saying into question instead of questioning the narrative you believe in after they literally granted themselves legal immunity for bailing out corporations that probably have representatives spending a lot of time in the EU parliament which is called lobbyism. ##Estimates say there‘s 25000 lobbyists in Brussel spending 1,5bln € annually, you have to be a clown to not question this institution or at the very least its‘ potential harm.##

Smart_Implement

Well maybe you should check Russian state representitives from federal channels or any gov who atleast once a week for 4 years speak how different eu countries should come back to russia because they were once part of the soviet or russian empire aka can check any of their statements on all baltic states/poland(putin himself said stalin created poland and it should be taken back 2 years ago) , they spoke exactly like trump and even harsher because A they did say all that and acted in the past towards Georgia/moldova/ukraine/chechnya in the past 30 years. Idk how competant you are on the topic or your eyes are blind but so much already happened / said and was done that i got no clue how you can say that US is the real enemy and not russia , what a clown show , you had tens of drones at random EU countries falling on your soil including baltics/moldova and poland tens already , their gov openly speaks about it and laughs at your face , the only difference is that trump doesn't wages a war with European country for 4 years like russia does nor does his strike drones landed on eu soil only his orange mouth and his obession with tariffs , and if 1 day he decides to physacly invade greenland rest assured russia will invade from the other side and use that moment.

Plus-Professional-84

Maybe you should stop drinking battery acid. What you wrote makes absolutely zero sense, and I have a very very strong feeling you are someone who has no clue about the EU’s institutions nor their respective mandates/authorities/responsibilities. Learn how to make sense before spouting nonsense you illiterate muppet

UglyT

That was just word salad. The EU doesn't "take charge of foreign politics". What does that even mean? The EU taking charge of the politics of a "foreign" country? Makes no sense. If you are trying to say that the EU takes charge of its member's foreign policy then that's also bullshit. Witness for example the very different foreign policy of say Hungary and Ireland. Clearly the EU isn't a benefit for all. Literally nothing in the world is a benefit for all. I don't think anybody claims it is literally perfect for everybody. And wars in Europe without the EU? What makes you sure there wouldn't be?

BatteryAcid420_

I feel like those people are more intelligent than anyone who doesn‘t have a healthy amount of doubt for the media. Because latter think there will be wars in Europe without the EU, they think the EU is a benefit for all, and they are even further from understanding how the EU taking charge of foreign politics for example is a nightmare, whereas if you‘re clueless about the institution you can quickly get to the conclusion „it‘s the united states of Europe, and it‘s neither a guaranteed benefit nor a really necessary institution“.

Samjabr

I appreciate what your saying. I really do. you make solid points. I was going to do a DD this weekend on the war and what my gambling strat is - here's a bad attempt at a tl;dr We don't need hormuz. seriously - **Only 2% of US oil goes through it... 2% -** (you can google to check) - and that 2% would likely take a few months to redirect permanently. The reality is the US can produce all the oil we need within 6mos to a year. Remember, we are currently operating the lowest number of rigs on record. And are producing more oil than ever before. Adding a few rigs would pretty much cover the gap. So, yeah, Hormuz - The rest of the world needs it a fk ton more than we do. It doesn't mean that we feel zero effects. Proof? Since the war began - the costs have risen: EU = +100% Asia = +150% US = +20 \--- Heavy Crude? - Venezuela has entered the chat. Refineries? In the 80's, because of a fear of running out of oil (pre-fracking and other technological leaps), the US Southern states were developed to receive heavy crude from Venezuela and Mexico. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/16/why-access-to-venezuelas-heavy-oil-is-tremendous-news-for-us-refiners#:\~:text=%E2%80%9CMany%20of%20the%20US%20refineries,process%2C%20and%20export%20Venezuelan%20petroleum. Ultimately, it costs us an inordinate amount of money to keep the straight safe. But if the people that are most affected by it aren't going to step up (They will), I 100% expected Mango to tell them go pound sand.

Tokyogerman

There were people googling "What is the EU" AFTER the Brexit vote People can't be helped.

AssistanceCheap379

The US also showed how aggressive they are by first striking Iran. This has pushed other countries away from the US, in part because of this fiasco and in part because US allies can’t rely on the US. There is a big decoupling happening among US allies and trade partners to move their supply chains to being more diverse and rely less on US imports and exports. It’s slow, but it’s happening. Canada has probably gone the furthest, pushing to improve trade with the EU and decreasing their high reliance on the US while maintaining important infrastructure that the US relies on as a way to maintain leverage without facing extreme economic meltdown in case of the US deciding they can do whatever they want regarding Canada. But more long term and more dangerously, this is also pushing medium sized nations across the world to pursue nuclear weapons. In the next decade, we will see a whole lot more nuclear weapons programs as a way to deter threats to sovereignty by larger nations that believe might makes right

Jbball9269

If the Fed holds rates steady and UK, BOJ and EU all hike we should have a MONSTER rally

thegoodbadandsmoggy

I’m Canadian so I get that weird overlap of both medias plus some European focus due to large populations/EU focus

Dorkasteri

Well he could taco himself out of this, but he needs something to save his face. He needs to be able to say ”I brought peace to the middle east and destroyed their weapons of mass destruction”. But still the damage is done. The US has spent huge amounts of money for absolutely nothing. The EU and Asia are fuct because the inflation caused by this war. It still smells like global recession.

Powerful_Quarter691

Pardon my french but your post is shit. Many of the EU countries are not only reliant on Middle East crude oil but also their gas supply and we are already being warned of potential future supply constraints only 28 days in this war. On the other hand we are restricted/prohibited from Russia’s oil and gas supply so basically we are fuc*** due to the 🥭 having small 🍆 and ego.

Academic_Lock_1699

And again, this US pm dictating prices now, hence the sudden move. EU is relevant from 2am to 4am 

Academic_Lock_1699

This is US pm dictating now. EU is 2am-4am

Daymjoo

Well yes, because the EU gradually shifted from its position of preventing America's westward expansion to a position of spearheading it. + The euromaidan and the purges that took place around that time. 

Inevitable-Scheme-38

Yea, when China + India + rest of Asia come slamming on that door Trump will need to cut it out. This could be the catalyst for a geopolitical alignment where the EU becomes non-aligned like India positioning China as the same level as the US. Disastrous for the US, long term.

NotMe357

Not only that but he wants all oil in the world. Thats why he invade Venezuela and next is Cuba and Colombia. If he block all the oil tanks in the Strait of Hormuz then he directly go in war with not only China but the whole world. Right now he can make an excuse its Iran who block the oil and not USA. If you follow him then he keeps indirectly asking NATO, EU and China for help so he can't take the risk to make them angry.

Beginning-Luck-4026

EU and Asia will hit the max pain point before the usa when it comes to oil needs, they will need to act before the US or Iran, and they will force a resolution, one way or the other. This is probably included in the calculation of the war plans. Not saying it was a good idea but the US doesn’t have to make the first move. Also if people are now seeing how much impact Iran can have on the global economy, do you really want them to possess nuclear weapons? North Korea has some form of nuke but not a biggie since they can’t hold the world economy hostage.

MegaPorkachu

Nah, there is no suitable replacement app for texting thats cross platform rn. Discord is for gamers so non gamers wont touch it, Slack is for workplaces, Wechat is china so most US/EU wont touch it.

Ecstatic_Wheelbarrow

At this point I just hope the rest of the world is watching and learning from this. Every country in the EU is moving more and more towards this and this is their future in 10 more years if they don't sort it out.

liverpoolFCnut

Iran can claim anything it wants. Even Iranians won't take yuan once the war is over except for purchases from China. Gulf Kingdoms abandoning petrodollars is the end for them. For all the big talk, lets not forget IRGC generals have billions invested in the middle east, EU and the US, they are not about to give up their luxuries because of a brief war.

WattMotorCompany

What kind of ignorant comment is that? Germany alone is the 3rd largest economy, and the EU combined the second highest GDP after US and before china.

IvoryTowerResident

Well starting this war is already utterly apocalyptic for US but much worst for Asia/EU. I am not Trump and dont know how his administration thinks but one way of getting stronger / USD petrodollar dominance is making sure everyone realizes how much they need the US. Need US for protection, for LNG/Oil, it is just a way to exercise hard power. Again speculating here. Trump is giving up way too much for not having a greater objective. Elections are like done, his approval is in the toilet and his dream of rate cuts are looking less likely. I dont like the assumption that politicians are dumb. Their interests just does not align with yours.

surfingforfido

Such an idiotic take. Who’s going to join WW3 again? Exhausted Russia who can’t even take over a much smaller country, which is dragging on for 4+ years now. Lebanon (Hezbollah a terror organization) and Iran so far. How about China? What’s in it for China to enter in an armed conflict to protect Iran? Are they going to try and take Taiwan? Doubt it. Is Mexico and Canada going to join in? What about the EU? So again, I’m perplexed on how this will turn into WW3. Such ignorance and stupidity with the original comment.

Groomsi

"EU/NATO, Help me from my disaster mistake."

momsickle

So RDDT dumped 10% mostly because of the EU age verification measures, but how many teens do you know that use reddit?

Al-phabitz89

The EU is a BAD ally 👎

cloud_cafe

Compared to EU markets you guys need at least -5% to catch with us

Key-Speaker007

Where EU customers can switch from Azure, AWS and Google? To Alibaba Cloud? Europe is so far behind in IT that they still don't have solutions even for yesterday's problems

miata_only

EU didn't seem to care about the "devastating global consequences" of war when it was France's oil in North Africa that we invaded Libya for.

x2eliah

Well this certainly is a sign for EU/europe to wke the fuck up and become independent

TomatoSpecialist6879

This should be the sign for EU to intervene and blow up Treasury's short position

BWright79

Germany has recently said it will no longer use Microslop products and the EU will probably follow soon. There is a huge anti-US sentiment overseas. Check out /r/[BuyFromEU](https://www.reddit.com/r/BuyFromEU/)

StrongCelery

Why does the EU not just buy oil from Iran or just pay €2m toll per tanker for the time being. That may mean approximately €0.04 increase per litre which is a damn site less than this folly is costing us at the minute.

BeginningEar8070

Indra, Leonardo, and Thales are indirect because their 6G revenue comes through sovereign defence contracts, not telecom operator contracts- 6G networks for military, border control, air traffic management, and critical infrastructure: The EU's €900M+ SNS JU 6G sovereign programme specifically funds non-US architecture. Indra, Leonardo, and Thales all have seats on those standardisation committees.

Commercial-District1

EU says Russia gave Iran intelligence to ‘kill Americans’ in Middle East The EU’s top diplomat has accused Russia of providing intelligence support to Iran in the Middle East war to “kill Americans” calling on the United States to increase pressure on Moscow.

LemonTeaCool

Voting for Trump was probably a win for the world, but not so much for Americans. If you think about it, Trump has actually somehow got EU to unite each other, made NATO members to increase military spending, and rerouted trade alliances outside of US.

hardrock527

Ehh Microsoft is fine, they are just caught up in every single tech sector crashing one after another. Nobody knows what is actually Microsofts core business so they get hit with SaaS, AI, and now EU lawfare fears on top of their consumer software issues. I fully expect it to keep tanking short term until the next tech bubble starts up and they get all the investors piling back in as a value play.

Whipitreelgud

MSFT has gone too far with personalization as the guise for collecting data for ad revenue. This has alienated a percentage of the consumer market and is a nightmare for corporate administrators attempting to retain control of their data. Regulators in the EU have concluded in some instances that Microsoft’s telemetry implementations did not meet privacy laws. The EU is far more concerned with this than the US and rightfully so. This realization of telemetry overreach has a serious impact on revenue. Add too much spending/investment on AI and you have another impact on expenses. And, war is probably changing how companies look at cloud services.

Wide_Air_4702

Is there a European competitor that EU people are switching to to move away from US Big Tech? Gemini: Yes, EU organizations and users are increasingly switching to European alternatives to Microsoft to boost digital sovereignty, primarily adopting [Nextcloud](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Nextcloud&mstk=AUtExfDhnrfV4eVCOBpqqiwDo5jbY9-g--6rXUazO6kbdHTIQ3BMDBCiQ6KOMw2HPbF4EyxaIGbEHKs9fODI6xO2QOTD8WCwh7VV-7N2IVsOxGz6AJ6uxSHrdfBzofcrKZKDAkdIhw5HzB9T99tDvdPoAL5Ur7Qgcibikrq8QNxGSkEZiHY&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi89OO4z72TAxXlGEQIHe_9CuEQgK4QegQIARAC) for collaboration, [OpenDesk](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=OpenDesk&mstk=AUtExfDhnrfV4eVCOBpqqiwDo5jbY9-g--6rXUazO6kbdHTIQ3BMDBCiQ6KOMw2HPbF4EyxaIGbEHKs9fODI6xO2QOTD8WCwh7VV-7N2IVsOxGz6AJ6uxSHrdfBzofcrKZKDAkdIhw5HzB9T99tDvdPoAL5Ur7Qgcibikrq8QNxGSkEZiHY&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi89OO4z72TAxXlGEQIHe_9CuEQgK4QegQIARAD) or [LibreOffice](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=LibreOffice&mstk=AUtExfDhnrfV4eVCOBpqqiwDo5jbY9-g--6rXUazO6kbdHTIQ3BMDBCiQ6KOMw2HPbF4EyxaIGbEHKs9fODI6xO2QOTD8WCwh7VV-7N2IVsOxGz6AJ6uxSHrdfBzofcrKZKDAkdIhw5HzB9T99tDvdPoAL5Ur7Qgcibikrq8QNxGSkEZiHY&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi89OO4z72TAxXlGEQIHe_9CuEQgK4QegQIARAE) for productivity, and [OVHcloud/Scaleway](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=OVHcloud%2FScaleway&mstk=AUtExfDhnrfV4eVCOBpqqiwDo5jbY9-g--6rXUazO6kbdHTIQ3BMDBCiQ6KOMw2HPbF4EyxaIGbEHKs9fODI6xO2QOTD8WCwh7VV-7N2IVsOxGz6AJ6uxSHrdfBzofcrKZKDAkdIhw5HzB9T99tDvdPoAL5Ur7Qgcibikrq8QNxGSkEZiHY&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi89OO4z72TAxXlGEQIHe_9CuEQgK4QegQIARAF) for infrastructure. New, tailored options like [Office.eu](http://Office.eu) and [Proton](https://proton.me/blog/european-alternative-us-tech-survey) are also emerging as dedicated privacy-focused replacements

met_art

EU approved the trade deal with US. I was hoping SPY would go up on such news 🫩

RareGuarantee3532

Finally a world war not starting in Western Europe, thank you EU for making us a poor, weak and irrelevant part of the world

doolytokki

hodl my may sept puts and wait for oil shortage to unravel in EU/Asia laugh at 🥭

NOT1506

There is no such thing as EU GAAP. And what exactly is the policy change that made it in line with IFRS?

Chicagoroomie312

When huge, deep markets make big moves you have to accept they might know something you don't. You are projecting too many complex relationships as static. For example, to paraphrase doomberg, the market is going to figure out what the marginally least profitable use of oil and gas is and curtail that. That will plug some of the 20% gap. If the strait stays shut and prices pop over the medium term, that incentivizes producers, especially US shale, to ramp up as much as possible. Sure, there are physical limits to export capacity, but the market will figure out the least productive uses weighing on current capacity and price those out too. As another example, Ursula van der Leyen could see EU LNG storage redlining and walk back Russian oil sanctions (and signal to Kyiv they can't blow up any more oil infrastructure if they ever want another loan). Unless you're a genius and have inside sources in the Trump administration and IRGC, don't make asset allocation decisions based on a geopolitical call here.

Party-Ticker

"don't defend yourself and stop killing our geopolitical enemy who said multiple times the EU is a mistake and we're degenerates" >not just tankers, but also shutting off the oil pipeline to Hungary for instance, which is a direct negative impact on the EU. Poor babies.

Few_Slice_3514

The EU is not as dependent on oil and gas from these countries as one might think. I was surprised to learn that only a relatively small percentage would be affected. Asia, on the other hand, would face the greatest challenges if the situation escalates. Japan in particular would be highly vulnerable, as more than 90% of its imports come from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Triotroitori

Yea ofc and stupid EU buys their stuff because it will be outdated so fast. :( And if they just would have a layered approach and be the integrator of all kind of sensors and effectors.. that would make your argument so invalid. but damn... oh wait..

myrainyday

Don't forget that US has its own Resources. It exports oil and gas so for own needs it's covered. EU is in a much worse situation, since buying energy or minerals from Russia is not a good option. I expect inflation in US, EU but this whole situation might hit EU a lot worse from what I see. Some individual states are worse. But again, I am taking it all from a Macro perspective.

CharmingDarling02

Shorting the company that the EU just made their primary 'No-Fly Zone' provider is a bold strategy. Let's see how that works out for your margin call.

Lammerikano

here we go (petrol downward thrust) government jockeys apparently finally started working (11:15 EU time) lol.

L44KSO

Ironically the far right in the EU Parlament is still talking about how bad green energy is because it is making our prices more expensive. People really live in their own little worlds.

imunfair

It's more a question of not biting the hand that feeds you. They're screwing with the economy in the west while demanding that we fund them to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars a year - not just tankers, but also shutting off the oil pipeline to Hungary for instance, which is a direct negative impact on the EU.

CreatingBlue

I would agree with you, if this situation played out for an extended period of time. But it is far more likely that the US or someone else sees all this shit playing out as well and does something about it before it gets to your doomsday scenario, than your doomsday scenario happening. Could your theory play out? Sure. But what are the odds the US, China, EU, etc get involved and resolve the war one way or another? Or Iran suddenly backs down like they have so many times in the past? Pretty high. Lotta people with a lot of money tied up in this that don’t wanna see economic collapse. Most likely, we see a significant dip that some people buy, and then things get resolved.

ScarletHarpy93

The first waves of layoffs in the end of 2022, beginning of 2023, were about pulling back from WFH, eliminating low performers en masse, and testing to see which functions broke and which were necessary for continued functioning of the businesses. The second waves of layoffs in the end of 2023, beginning of 2024, were about consolidation and elimination of WFH completely and forcing people back into office real estate whose pricing threatened to become an albatross on corporate balance sheets due to changes in US GAAP in 2022 to bring it in line with practices in EU GAAP-equivalents. This third wave of hiring is targeted attrition at bad bets made in the last decade which haven't played out. Most of Meta's cuts are in the Meta piece, with some trimming of remaining fat in social. Amazon cut places like Devices, Games, drones, etc. that were either supposed to be expansions for their AWS money maker, or cost savings for their online store. Similar stories in the rest of big tech. A lot of these bad bets are being closed to free up revenue to pay for massive commitments in CAPEX towards AI infrastructure. None of these cuts are AI driven yet. If you're in big tech, you're probably watching dozens of small pilot programs internally to automate jobs away, but very few of those have had a full year to run yet. You can fully expect that if any of them show real returns in scaling up productivity or reducing the need for people, that those will be reflected in ongoing cuts throughout the next two years.

Daymjoo

>Greater military spending over the past few decades might have deterred Russia from invading Ukraine, something which economically would have been beneficial. Might have. But what it's more likely to have done is it would've caused Russia to invade Ukraine even sooner. According to Merkel and Hollande, what caused Russia NOT to invade Ukraine was preventing its accesion to NATO at the 2008 summit in Bucharest. But we're getting way, way off topic here. The likelihood of something happening is not a different discussion from the mathematical calculation of whether that thing is worth it. It's an intrinsic part of it. Not to mention that the statement that 'Russia not invading Ukraine would have been economically beneficial to us' is... a complicated statement, to say the least. It's only economically detrimental to us because we're making it that way. If we started throwing hundreds of billions at Iran to help against a US invasion that would be economically detrimental too, but that's not a good argument for attempting to build military deterrence against the US. >And if the NHS gets a pass because of keeping people productive, what about the 85 year old granny who had a stroke? Her productive days are well behind her. My argument was never that 'all political decisions are about min-maxing productivity', it was about the fact that 'European armament' is virtually unrelated to 'European energy security'. If anything, making guns costs energy and resources, and is thus detrimental to EU energy security.

typhon0666

To quote the European Commission's ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030 which is to invest 800billion in rearmament: "To uphold EU sovereignty, numerous MEPs highlighted the importance of boosting competitiveness,enhancing strategic autonomy, and ensuring secure and independent access to critical raw materials and energy supplies. " The EU is planning ahead to the near future so as to be effective in combat deployment with highly industrialized nations. You could think of it as being able to safeguard access to resources and energy supplies it currently relies on.

Bossanova72

If you did any research on this topic after the dust settled you know that the big banks realized they were the ones with the majority of the counterparty risk. So what did they do: They greedily took the fees from Burry one the one hand and then slow played Burry to buy time to get out of their positions on the other hand. I think GS was the worst on both sides, but still coming out of it better off due to the bail outs. The funds they couldn’t liquidate were marked to 0 as losses and then the bailouts came. Except for Lehman. The sad reality of all of this BS is the big EU banks didn’t have as much knowledge of the CDSs (time asymmetry) and they needed larger bailouts. Yes, the American taxpayer bailed out many large EU banks. In these scenarios the last to sell end up with the worst positions and no buyers left in the market.

purplewarrior777

Buying EU means it least that money goes back round again!

Daymjoo

Except we're **not** willing to take the inflationary effects. The rise of the far right is a direct result of that. Both AfD and the NF in france, as well as multiple governments in smaller EU countries, are moving right fast and hard. And the right has no interest in rearmament and, for that matter, in war with Russia. I think you're making my point for me rather than the other way around: Russia isn't even able to make significant ground in Ukraine. It has no business fighting a war with us. We're fine. All rearmament does is create more insecurity on the continent. Do you imagine Russia will just watch us militarize ourselves and not react? What's to keep them from arming even harder themselves? After all, if there is a necessity, there is a way to finance it, right?

Garbage-Disposal-938

I remember a time when economists said that interest rates could not go below zero. And then it happened in some of the EU countries.

zestykite

we already won the war its all over. but we need EU and NATO to pull their weight on this war, even though its already over and they have nothing left. we cant fight this war all by ourselves and need help to secure the area, but the area is secure and they have nothing left.

Creative_Wear_1972

I work at NW EU plastic resin distributor (local) and we are receiving price increases daily. also all producers that have some grades produced only in ASIA suddenly have 6 months lead-time from normally 2 months. April/May will be really crazy.

BeginningEar8070

i think i see it this way at this moment after doind some researches past few months: **Energy efficiency:** Ericsson → NEC → Nokia **Sovereignty:** NEC → Ericsson → Nokia **Commercial momentum 2026:** Nokia → Ericsson → NEC **Investment timing:** NEC → Nokia → Ericsson indirect : jx advanced metals, indra(spain), leonardo(italy), thales (france) Im investor only since the end of dezember, and hold NEC and Nokia in portofolio. I would like to have jx advanced metals but dont have budget xD orginally invested in Indra and leonardo for cybersecurity and defence and to increase my eu holdings, it is related to the topic indirectly. # some most relevant information that lead me to the above summary: there are 2 standards that are not exclusive that are being developed and relevant to 6g: 3GPP (Nokia/Ericsson) → IOWN (NEC/NTT) since 5g to 6g is a technology leap from electroninc to opto electronic there are opportunities from new supply chains i think nokia has still best entry now, but NEC is more appealing in general and longer term to me. I did some comparisons before, and from main focus (not the only solution they develop) nokia is more performance focused and partnering with nvidia which is looking to imprison users in their ecosystem- it is exposed to more power consumption, ericsson can work with nvidia but focuses more on open approach and cpu hardware which is more efficient- so depending on what investors think is more important performance vs efficiency the stock can move in favor of one or the other accordingly i think. obviously nvidia optimises and aims for more efficient hardware with time. as for NEC it gives impression of a completely different solution which offers a whole ecosystem around it and possibilities with way better efficiency and latency- NEC also appears to be ahead with tests and implementations. 6G privacy by design and sovereignity is a variable that customers might be looking for and will be expressed in customer and/or investor decisions. governments and enterprises that dont want US cloud infrastructure inside their 6G networks might pay a premium for NEC/NTT. its worth noting that nokia drives nvidia hype marketing and is exposed the most to the news and big articles. I noticed NEC is way more difficult to find in articles and news, but you are more likely to find actual numbers that would be important for any comparison. there are some tests to highlights which can be compared to tests that nokia with nvidia does and were presented on recent event. The February 2026 DOCOMO/NTT demonstration — they showed network-controlled AI inference where the 5G core network itself decides in real-time which GPU resource handles which inference task, routing through IOWN APN photonic connections with minimal delay. This is architecturally a generation ahead of Nokia's model where the edge chip does everything locally.​ And February 25: University of Tokyo, NTT and NEC successfully integrated AI agents for 6G/IOWN platforms covering streaming semantic communication, AI-oriented media control and In-Network Computing simultaneously. This is the most advanced AI-native network architecture currently demonstrated anywhere in the world — not a reference architecture, an actual working integration. March 11, NEC announced Physical AI that anticipates human movement and psychological states — reducing workplace stress through sensor networks that predict human behaviour before incidents occur. This is the VSS blueprint concept but with a completely different design philosophy: instead of recording events and summarising them, NEC's system predicts and prevents events before they happen.​ indirect investment jx advanced metals i havent looked into the specifics yet but EU is also investing into relevant programms that are directly or indirectly involved in 6g investment strategies- especialy France GAIA-X, EuroStack - EU SNS JU 6G programme. > The EU 6G Sovereign Programme — €900m+ Already Committed The broader European context is the SNS JU (Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking) — the EU's formal 6G sovereignty programme: €630m already deployed since 2021 across 100 projects €270m more confirmed for 2026–2027 €230m flagship call planned for 2027 specifically for pre-commercial 6G validation 1,000+ contributions to global 3GPP standardisation from EU-backed projectsMWC 2026 (March 4) confirmed Europe's explicit goal: "We don't want to follow, we want to lead 6G" as a result there are companies that are more or less direct investment opportunities: Indra (Spain), Leonardo (Italy), Thales (France), Airbus Defence — have a seat at the table when 6G network architecture is finalised. Im investor only since the end of dezember, and hold NEC and Nokia in portofolio. I would like to have jx advanced metals but dont have budget xD orginally invested in Indra and leonardo for cybersecurity and defence and to increase my eu holdings, it is related to the topic indirectly.

2020isgreat

EU AMBASSADOR TO THE US STATES THAT THERE IS NO POSSIBILITY OF RETURNING TO RUSSIAN GAS DUE TO THE MIDDLE EAST CRISIS. probably because Russia gas terminals are being fucked[](https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2036846821365235855)

Samjabr

It is the year 2050: Musk’s droid legions sweep cities, hoping to locate the last free rebels, to be "recruited" for SpaceX's, Mars mining colonies. The US continues strikes on the EU from the annexed western part of Greenland And MSFT finally trades above $400 - (How the hell is it even down today 🤦‍♂️)

Magnificent_luck

EU spends billions on rearmament now. They have long term contracts. RH is a good buy at this level in my opinion

typhon0666

Europe knows a thing or two about war. Most of Europe has been living in a bit of a fantasy delusion regarding resources and global politics. Suffice to say that has somewhat been snapped back to reality and are even openly using rhetoric to preparing the populace for direct war. In the foreseeable future there will be heavy reinvestment in rearmament. Without rearmament EU goals cannot be achieved, not counting the direct threat of war with Russia, it's political strength in economics and trade will dwindle over time. The question really is if Rheinmetall will be producing popular weapon systems used in the future conflicts. The no brainer is AI/silicon, drones, aerospace, as the delivery systems and of course the munitions payload manufacturers.

_aliased

MSFT own employees dont want to use copilot. Xbox is dead. People see the backlash to Adobe's SaaS model. EU divesting from MS, China doesn't use MS... plenty of reason to be down 30%

Ledd10

I like them for space/satellites exposure for long term. The European defense companies seem the most likely to lead the space exploration for EU and the UK

WinstonSalemSmith

I am bullish and holding the ADRs in the USA. I first bought in Jan 2024 and sold 25 pct of my position at 110 USD or something. I continue to hold the remainder of the position based on German/EU investment in the defense sector and the quality of RNMBY products. I add to my position whenever RNMBY falls to 380 and 360, then sell at 410 and 420. If it keeps falling I will purchase more around 310. There is no such thing as a sure thing, but buying defense shares in a time of expanding defense budgets is logical.

Financial_Loan1337

Next thing you know, EU make a deal with Iran =))

Orpa__

A ceasefire will of course require an international guarantor, a role only China or the EU could fill.

OP_Penguin

If you add up taxes, education and healthcare costs, Americans pay an effective tax that’s higher than most of the EU, and if you lose your job and get sick, medical debt that can follow you for life. Get laid off and your wife is pregnant, whoopsie fucked for life. Having healthcare paid single payer is worth the increased tax rate, especially once you factor in end of life healthcare cost. On average, retirees should expect to spend 175k on healthcare in the US. That’s average, and dying sooner helps keep that number down. So while Americans get to revel in their marginally lower tax rate, we get little in return for it. Imagine you’re at a restaurant. You have $100. The menu is two items. Item 1 is $35. You get a stale egg salad sand which from a vending machine, no drink, and the waiter takes half of that $35 and gives it to another table to get up and punch a different customer in the face. Before during and after the waiter tells you that that customer was coming to take your egg salad sandwich. Item 2 is $55, includes 3 courses, and the waiter uses half the money to give your kids new contact lenses.

Tusen_Takk

Yes, I live here now. I make a p deece six figgies with 4 kids, a wife, and a Labrador. We have 0 debt, are frugal other than organic food, and it’s to the point we can’t save much every month anymore. It cost me $642 to get 3 weeks of staple groceries and diapers at Costco the other day. I didn’t even buy anything fun. The cost of living is easily 2-4x Europe but my salary is maybe 1.75x EU wages for my career

Tusen_Takk

What percentage of your salary is your healthcare + taxes? I’ve lived in both EU and U.S. and can assure you US is way more expensive (which is why salaries are usually a little higher)

mentalweapons

You dont know how strong the labor laws are in EU. Except its also really hard to start your own company though.

Silver-Direction-938

I work plastic injection molding in North EU. Our chief said last friday that 10% of raw materials can't be bought and shit will hit the fan in 2 months time if the Hormuz stays closed. We produce basic components with basic materials for your A.I. datacenter needs. Soon it is possible we can't produce them, or have to produce horrible quality from 3rd rate plastic. For me it is OK. Summer vacation is coming. I am unionised so the possible furloughment is just extra holiday for me. I will miss the 4,5x overtime pay though, but apparently what Jensen giveth, Trump can taketh away.

Dorkasteri

Yeah, you are right about that. I’m just not sure if FED can step in anymore. Inflation is getting wilder and wilder. EU rates have gone vertical. Atleast two hikes this year by ECB. Euribor 12M has gone from 2.22 -> 2.92 with 3 weeks.

Accidental-Genius

I think, to some extent, the EU knows it has to raise the floor on defense spending. What the ceiling will be, who the fuck knows. I’m not selling EUAD but not really eager to buy a ton more at this level.

yaboyalaska

moves in US and EU stocks are correlated EU went down big, US, not so much He thinks US will follow but instead of saying that he decided to be a prick to prove he is smarter than the users of (checks notes) wall street bets the irony is that the vix will crush like it always does and that other guy who bought the ORCL leaps is going to make far more money than this guy ever will

KinglexNUM

So just cause 50 stocks of EURO exchanges are highly correlated, that means that 500 stocks of US exchanges will mean revert to become highly correlated again (since historically the spread between the 2 metrics correlate)? Bro what stocks does the SX5E have? 50 stocks vs 500 stocks, with fundamentally different sectors. US has AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, EU has Hennesy, LOREAL lol

RareGuarantee3532

I will , see you in 11 hours for asian closure and EU opening, I'll pick you up with my lambo

jrex035

It's hard to say. On the one hand, the conflict with Iran and ongoing war with Russia makes it more likely for European arms manufacturers to get big new orders. But on the other hand, Europe is going to get pummeled by this energy crisis worse than the US or China, which raises questions about how much thee EU will invest in defense spending.

Apprehensive_Rub3897

Yes, the same missile could reach most of Austria and almost to Munich. EU is not as crazy as Trump. The best case scenario from all of this is to return to where we were less than a month ago.

Apprehensive_Rub3897

Not only did we go the opposite direction, we started a conflict that cut them off at the path. When Trump is finally gone, EU will still never trust a word we say all for a few dollars more, to own the libs and distract for all the evidence (not allegations) of the president raping at least one 13 year old.

DanasSideWife

The entire EU is working to build competitive software for their governments to get off their platform. There is no future where they can replace that revenue stream

FartPolluter

EU: Okay Iran, youve made your point now please open the strait of Hormuz and let the United States and Israel bomb you without retaliation please. Eurogooners: Oh *snap*. orange man not gonna like this

YondaimeHokage7

That’s true for accessibility, but there’s a tax catch depending on where you live. For example here in Bulgaria capital gains realized on regulated EU markets are tax-exempt. ​However, the National Revenue Agency doesn't view fractional shares as being traded on a regulated market because they are usually a broker-side 'feature' not an actual exchange-listed security. So while whole shares of ASML on Euronext are tax-exempt, fractional shares are treated as over-the-counter transactions rather than trades on a regulated market. So basically if I buy and sell whole shares, I pay 0% tax. If I buy fractionals, the NRA sees that as an off-market transaction and hits me with 10%.

Roxorek

|**Type**|**Commodity**|**Country / Region**|**Severity**| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |EMERGENCY|electricity|Sri Lanka|MODERATE| |RATIONING|diesel|United Kingdom|MODERATE| |RATIONING|gasoline|United Kingdom|MODERATE| |PRICE SPIKE|gasoline|United States|MODERATE| |EMERGENCY|energy|Philippines|CRITICAL| |EMERGENCY|gasoline|United Kingdom|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|fuel|Nigeria|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|fuel|Philippines|CRITICAL| |SHORTAGE|gasoline|Bangladesh|SEVERE| |SHORTAGE|fuel|China|MODERATE| |RATIONING|fuel|EU country|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|diesel|Australia|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|LPG|India|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|gasoline|United States|MODERATE| |PRICE SPIKE|high-octane\_fuel|Pakistan|SEVERE| |SHORTAGE|gasoline|Australia|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|fuel|Sri Lanka|MODERATE| |RATIONING|gasoline|Slovenia|MODERATE| |PRICE SPIKE|diesel|Australia|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|LPG|Cambodia|MODERATE| |RATIONING|petrol|Kenya|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|gasoline|diesel|India (Gujarat)|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|diesel|United States|SEVERE| |SHORTAGE|jet fuel|Africa|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|diesel|Bangladesh|MODERATE| |PRICE SPIKE|diesel|Philippines|SEVERE| |PRICE SPIKE|gasoline|Philippines|SEVERE| |RATIONING|gasoline|Myanmar|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|natural\_gas|India (Gujarat)|SEVERE| |RATIONING|gasoline|Kenya|MODERATE|

te7037

$TUN is 32p while $TUNGF is $1.80. The UK is closer to the EU so $TUN will be a backup for the US and the EU markets.

jsands7

Why would it be the U.S. risking the lives? There’s oil tankers from 32 countries that have nothing to do with this that are legally allowed to sail through there. Iran is threatening to commit war crimes and murder EU, UN, and NATO civilian oil workers, and everybody is just going along with it

imalusr

Turkey is geopolitically unique. - Closest NATO ally to Iran, so Iran won’t attack it (again) - has unusually close relations with Russia allowing Russian citizens to fly in/out every day - could very well weather an energy crises better than most NATO/EU countries because it could trade oil/gas with Iran and Russia without needing that trade to occur via an ocean route. It has active pipelines to BOTH.

Ok_GAINZ

The EU has 0 SEC championships. Why tf would I invest there?