EU

Beginning-Luck-4026

EU and Asia will hit the max pain point before the usa when it comes to oil needs, they will need to act before the US or Iran, and they will force a resolution, one way or the other. This is probably included in the calculation of the war plans. Not saying it was a good idea but the US doesn’t have to make the first move. Also if people are now seeing how much impact Iran can have on the global economy, do you really want them to possess nuclear weapons? North Korea has some form of nuke but not a biggie since they can’t hold the world economy hostage.

MegaPorkachu

Nah, there is no suitable replacement app for texting thats cross platform rn. Discord is for gamers so non gamers wont touch it, Slack is for workplaces, Wechat is china so most US/EU wont touch it.

Ecstatic_Wheelbarrow

At this point I just hope the rest of the world is watching and learning from this. Every country in the EU is moving more and more towards this and this is their future in 10 more years if they don't sort it out.

liverpoolFCnut

Iran can claim anything it wants. Even Iranians won't take yuan once the war is over except for purchases from China. Gulf Kingdoms abandoning petrodollars is the end for them. For all the big talk, lets not forget IRGC generals have billions invested in the middle east, EU and the US, they are not about to give up their luxuries because of a brief war.

WattMotorCompany

What kind of ignorant comment is that? Germany alone is the 3rd largest economy, and the EU combined the second highest GDP after US and before china.

IvoryTowerResident

Well starting this war is already utterly apocalyptic for US but much worst for Asia/EU. I am not Trump and dont know how his administration thinks but one way of getting stronger / USD petrodollar dominance is making sure everyone realizes how much they need the US. Need US for protection, for LNG/Oil, it is just a way to exercise hard power. Again speculating here. Trump is giving up way too much for not having a greater objective. Elections are like done, his approval is in the toilet and his dream of rate cuts are looking less likely. I dont like the assumption that politicians are dumb. Their interests just does not align with yours.

surfingforfido

Such an idiotic take. Who’s going to join WW3 again? Exhausted Russia who can’t even take over a much smaller country, which is dragging on for 4+ years now. Lebanon (Hezbollah a terror organization) and Iran so far. How about China? What’s in it for China to enter in an armed conflict to protect Iran? Are they going to try and take Taiwan? Doubt it. Is Mexico and Canada going to join in? What about the EU? So again, I’m perplexed on how this will turn into WW3. Such ignorance and stupidity with the original comment.

Groomsi

"EU/NATO, Help me from my disaster mistake."

momsickle

So RDDT dumped 10% mostly because of the EU age verification measures, but how many teens do you know that use reddit?

Al-phabitz89

The EU is a BAD ally 👎

cloud_cafe

Compared to EU markets you guys need at least -5% to catch with us

Key-Speaker007

Where EU customers can switch from Azure, AWS and Google? To Alibaba Cloud? Europe is so far behind in IT that they still don't have solutions even for yesterday's problems

miata_only

EU didn't seem to care about the "devastating global consequences" of war when it was France's oil in North Africa that we invaded Libya for.

x2eliah

Well this certainly is a sign for EU/europe to wke the fuck up and become independent

TomatoSpecialist6879

This should be the sign for EU to intervene and blow up Treasury's short position

BWright79

Germany has recently said it will no longer use Microslop products and the EU will probably follow soon. There is a huge anti-US sentiment overseas. Check out /r/[BuyFromEU](https://www.reddit.com/r/BuyFromEU/)

StrongCelery

Why does the EU not just buy oil from Iran or just pay €2m toll per tanker for the time being. That may mean approximately €0.04 increase per litre which is a damn site less than this folly is costing us at the minute.

BeginningEar8070

Indra, Leonardo, and Thales are indirect because their 6G revenue comes through sovereign defence contracts, not telecom operator contracts- 6G networks for military, border control, air traffic management, and critical infrastructure: The EU's €900M+ SNS JU 6G sovereign programme specifically funds non-US architecture. Indra, Leonardo, and Thales all have seats on those standardisation committees.

Commercial-District1

EU says Russia gave Iran intelligence to ‘kill Americans’ in Middle East The EU’s top diplomat has accused Russia of providing intelligence support to Iran in the Middle East war to “kill Americans” calling on the United States to increase pressure on Moscow.

LemonTeaCool

Voting for Trump was probably a win for the world, but not so much for Americans. If you think about it, Trump has actually somehow got EU to unite each other, made NATO members to increase military spending, and rerouted trade alliances outside of US.

hardrock527

Ehh Microsoft is fine, they are just caught up in every single tech sector crashing one after another. Nobody knows what is actually Microsofts core business so they get hit with SaaS, AI, and now EU lawfare fears on top of their consumer software issues. I fully expect it to keep tanking short term until the next tech bubble starts up and they get all the investors piling back in as a value play.

Whipitreelgud

MSFT has gone too far with personalization as the guise for collecting data for ad revenue. This has alienated a percentage of the consumer market and is a nightmare for corporate administrators attempting to retain control of their data. Regulators in the EU have concluded in some instances that Microsoft’s telemetry implementations did not meet privacy laws. The EU is far more concerned with this than the US and rightfully so. This realization of telemetry overreach has a serious impact on revenue. Add too much spending/investment on AI and you have another impact on expenses. And, war is probably changing how companies look at cloud services.

Wide_Air_4702

Is there a European competitor that EU people are switching to to move away from US Big Tech? Gemini: Yes, EU organizations and users are increasingly switching to European alternatives to Microsoft to boost digital sovereignty, primarily adopting [Nextcloud](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Nextcloud&mstk=AUtExfDhnrfV4eVCOBpqqiwDo5jbY9-g--6rXUazO6kbdHTIQ3BMDBCiQ6KOMw2HPbF4EyxaIGbEHKs9fODI6xO2QOTD8WCwh7VV-7N2IVsOxGz6AJ6uxSHrdfBzofcrKZKDAkdIhw5HzB9T99tDvdPoAL5Ur7Qgcibikrq8QNxGSkEZiHY&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi89OO4z72TAxXlGEQIHe_9CuEQgK4QegQIARAC) for collaboration, [OpenDesk](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=OpenDesk&mstk=AUtExfDhnrfV4eVCOBpqqiwDo5jbY9-g--6rXUazO6kbdHTIQ3BMDBCiQ6KOMw2HPbF4EyxaIGbEHKs9fODI6xO2QOTD8WCwh7VV-7N2IVsOxGz6AJ6uxSHrdfBzofcrKZKDAkdIhw5HzB9T99tDvdPoAL5Ur7Qgcibikrq8QNxGSkEZiHY&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi89OO4z72TAxXlGEQIHe_9CuEQgK4QegQIARAD) or [LibreOffice](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=LibreOffice&mstk=AUtExfDhnrfV4eVCOBpqqiwDo5jbY9-g--6rXUazO6kbdHTIQ3BMDBCiQ6KOMw2HPbF4EyxaIGbEHKs9fODI6xO2QOTD8WCwh7VV-7N2IVsOxGz6AJ6uxSHrdfBzofcrKZKDAkdIhw5HzB9T99tDvdPoAL5Ur7Qgcibikrq8QNxGSkEZiHY&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi89OO4z72TAxXlGEQIHe_9CuEQgK4QegQIARAE) for productivity, and [OVHcloud/Scaleway](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=OVHcloud%2FScaleway&mstk=AUtExfDhnrfV4eVCOBpqqiwDo5jbY9-g--6rXUazO6kbdHTIQ3BMDBCiQ6KOMw2HPbF4EyxaIGbEHKs9fODI6xO2QOTD8WCwh7VV-7N2IVsOxGz6AJ6uxSHrdfBzofcrKZKDAkdIhw5HzB9T99tDvdPoAL5Ur7Qgcibikrq8QNxGSkEZiHY&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi89OO4z72TAxXlGEQIHe_9CuEQgK4QegQIARAF) for infrastructure. New, tailored options like [Office.eu](http://Office.eu) and [Proton](https://proton.me/blog/european-alternative-us-tech-survey) are also emerging as dedicated privacy-focused replacements

met_art

EU approved the trade deal with US. I was hoping SPY would go up on such news 🫩

RareGuarantee3532

Finally a world war not starting in Western Europe, thank you EU for making us a poor, weak and irrelevant part of the world

doolytokki

hodl my may sept puts and wait for oil shortage to unravel in EU/Asia laugh at 🥭

NOT1506

There is no such thing as EU GAAP. And what exactly is the policy change that made it in line with IFRS?

Chicagoroomie312

When huge, deep markets make big moves you have to accept they might know something you don't. You are projecting too many complex relationships as static. For example, to paraphrase doomberg, the market is going to figure out what the marginally least profitable use of oil and gas is and curtail that. That will plug some of the 20% gap. If the strait stays shut and prices pop over the medium term, that incentivizes producers, especially US shale, to ramp up as much as possible. Sure, there are physical limits to export capacity, but the market will figure out the least productive uses weighing on current capacity and price those out too. As another example, Ursula van der Leyen could see EU LNG storage redlining and walk back Russian oil sanctions (and signal to Kyiv they can't blow up any more oil infrastructure if they ever want another loan). Unless you're a genius and have inside sources in the Trump administration and IRGC, don't make asset allocation decisions based on a geopolitical call here.

Party-Ticker

"don't defend yourself and stop killing our geopolitical enemy who said multiple times the EU is a mistake and we're degenerates" >not just tankers, but also shutting off the oil pipeline to Hungary for instance, which is a direct negative impact on the EU. Poor babies.

Few_Slice_3514

The EU is not as dependent on oil and gas from these countries as one might think. I was surprised to learn that only a relatively small percentage would be affected. Asia, on the other hand, would face the greatest challenges if the situation escalates. Japan in particular would be highly vulnerable, as more than 90% of its imports come from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Triotroitori

Yea ofc and stupid EU buys their stuff because it will be outdated so fast. :( And if they just would have a layered approach and be the integrator of all kind of sensors and effectors.. that would make your argument so invalid. but damn... oh wait..

myrainyday

Don't forget that US has its own Resources. It exports oil and gas so for own needs it's covered. EU is in a much worse situation, since buying energy or minerals from Russia is not a good option. I expect inflation in US, EU but this whole situation might hit EU a lot worse from what I see. Some individual states are worse. But again, I am taking it all from a Macro perspective.

CharmingDarling02

Shorting the company that the EU just made their primary 'No-Fly Zone' provider is a bold strategy. Let's see how that works out for your margin call.

Lammerikano

here we go (petrol downward thrust) government jockeys apparently finally started working (11:15 EU time) lol.

L44KSO

Ironically the far right in the EU Parlament is still talking about how bad green energy is because it is making our prices more expensive. People really live in their own little worlds.

imunfair

It's more a question of not biting the hand that feeds you. They're screwing with the economy in the west while demanding that we fund them to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars a year - not just tankers, but also shutting off the oil pipeline to Hungary for instance, which is a direct negative impact on the EU.

CreatingBlue

I would agree with you, if this situation played out for an extended period of time. But it is far more likely that the US or someone else sees all this shit playing out as well and does something about it before it gets to your doomsday scenario, than your doomsday scenario happening. Could your theory play out? Sure. But what are the odds the US, China, EU, etc get involved and resolve the war one way or another? Or Iran suddenly backs down like they have so many times in the past? Pretty high. Lotta people with a lot of money tied up in this that don’t wanna see economic collapse. Most likely, we see a significant dip that some people buy, and then things get resolved.

ScarletHarpy93

The first waves of layoffs in the end of 2022, beginning of 2023, were about pulling back from WFH, eliminating low performers en masse, and testing to see which functions broke and which were necessary for continued functioning of the businesses. The second waves of layoffs in the end of 2023, beginning of 2024, were about consolidation and elimination of WFH completely and forcing people back into office real estate whose pricing threatened to become an albatross on corporate balance sheets due to changes in US GAAP in 2022 to bring it in line with practices in EU GAAP-equivalents. This third wave of hiring is targeted attrition at bad bets made in the last decade which haven't played out. Most of Meta's cuts are in the Meta piece, with some trimming of remaining fat in social. Amazon cut places like Devices, Games, drones, etc. that were either supposed to be expansions for their AWS money maker, or cost savings for their online store. Similar stories in the rest of big tech. A lot of these bad bets are being closed to free up revenue to pay for massive commitments in CAPEX towards AI infrastructure. None of these cuts are AI driven yet. If you're in big tech, you're probably watching dozens of small pilot programs internally to automate jobs away, but very few of those have had a full year to run yet. You can fully expect that if any of them show real returns in scaling up productivity or reducing the need for people, that those will be reflected in ongoing cuts throughout the next two years.

Daymjoo

>Greater military spending over the past few decades might have deterred Russia from invading Ukraine, something which economically would have been beneficial. Might have. But what it's more likely to have done is it would've caused Russia to invade Ukraine even sooner. According to Merkel and Hollande, what caused Russia NOT to invade Ukraine was preventing its accesion to NATO at the 2008 summit in Bucharest. But we're getting way, way off topic here. The likelihood of something happening is not a different discussion from the mathematical calculation of whether that thing is worth it. It's an intrinsic part of it. Not to mention that the statement that 'Russia not invading Ukraine would have been economically beneficial to us' is... a complicated statement, to say the least. It's only economically detrimental to us because we're making it that way. If we started throwing hundreds of billions at Iran to help against a US invasion that would be economically detrimental too, but that's not a good argument for attempting to build military deterrence against the US. >And if the NHS gets a pass because of keeping people productive, what about the 85 year old granny who had a stroke? Her productive days are well behind her. My argument was never that 'all political decisions are about min-maxing productivity', it was about the fact that 'European armament' is virtually unrelated to 'European energy security'. If anything, making guns costs energy and resources, and is thus detrimental to EU energy security.

typhon0666

To quote the European Commission's ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030 which is to invest 800billion in rearmament: "To uphold EU sovereignty, numerous MEPs highlighted the importance of boosting competitiveness,enhancing strategic autonomy, and ensuring secure and independent access to critical raw materials and energy supplies. " The EU is planning ahead to the near future so as to be effective in combat deployment with highly industrialized nations. You could think of it as being able to safeguard access to resources and energy supplies it currently relies on.

Bossanova72

If you did any research on this topic after the dust settled you know that the big banks realized they were the ones with the majority of the counterparty risk. So what did they do: They greedily took the fees from Burry one the one hand and then slow played Burry to buy time to get out of their positions on the other hand. I think GS was the worst on both sides, but still coming out of it better off due to the bail outs. The funds they couldn’t liquidate were marked to 0 as losses and then the bailouts came. Except for Lehman. The sad reality of all of this BS is the big EU banks didn’t have as much knowledge of the CDSs (time asymmetry) and they needed larger bailouts. Yes, the American taxpayer bailed out many large EU banks. In these scenarios the last to sell end up with the worst positions and no buyers left in the market.

purplewarrior777

Buying EU means it least that money goes back round again!

Daymjoo

Except we're **not** willing to take the inflationary effects. The rise of the far right is a direct result of that. Both AfD and the NF in france, as well as multiple governments in smaller EU countries, are moving right fast and hard. And the right has no interest in rearmament and, for that matter, in war with Russia. I think you're making my point for me rather than the other way around: Russia isn't even able to make significant ground in Ukraine. It has no business fighting a war with us. We're fine. All rearmament does is create more insecurity on the continent. Do you imagine Russia will just watch us militarize ourselves and not react? What's to keep them from arming even harder themselves? After all, if there is a necessity, there is a way to finance it, right?

Garbage-Disposal-938

I remember a time when economists said that interest rates could not go below zero. And then it happened in some of the EU countries.

zestykite

we already won the war its all over. but we need EU and NATO to pull their weight on this war, even though its already over and they have nothing left. we cant fight this war all by ourselves and need help to secure the area, but the area is secure and they have nothing left.

Creative_Wear_1972

I work at NW EU plastic resin distributor (local) and we are receiving price increases daily. also all producers that have some grades produced only in ASIA suddenly have 6 months lead-time from normally 2 months. April/May will be really crazy.

BeginningEar8070

i think i see it this way at this moment after doind some researches past few months: **Energy efficiency:** Ericsson → NEC → Nokia **Sovereignty:** NEC → Ericsson → Nokia **Commercial momentum 2026:** Nokia → Ericsson → NEC **Investment timing:** NEC → Nokia → Ericsson indirect : jx advanced metals, indra(spain), leonardo(italy), thales (france) Im investor only since the end of dezember, and hold NEC and Nokia in portofolio. I would like to have jx advanced metals but dont have budget xD orginally invested in Indra and leonardo for cybersecurity and defence and to increase my eu holdings, it is related to the topic indirectly. # some most relevant information that lead me to the above summary: there are 2 standards that are not exclusive that are being developed and relevant to 6g: 3GPP (Nokia/Ericsson) → IOWN (NEC/NTT) since 5g to 6g is a technology leap from electroninc to opto electronic there are opportunities from new supply chains i think nokia has still best entry now, but NEC is more appealing in general and longer term to me. I did some comparisons before, and from main focus (not the only solution they develop) nokia is more performance focused and partnering with nvidia which is looking to imprison users in their ecosystem- it is exposed to more power consumption, ericsson can work with nvidia but focuses more on open approach and cpu hardware which is more efficient- so depending on what investors think is more important performance vs efficiency the stock can move in favor of one or the other accordingly i think. obviously nvidia optimises and aims for more efficient hardware with time. as for NEC it gives impression of a completely different solution which offers a whole ecosystem around it and possibilities with way better efficiency and latency- NEC also appears to be ahead with tests and implementations. 6G privacy by design and sovereignity is a variable that customers might be looking for and will be expressed in customer and/or investor decisions. governments and enterprises that dont want US cloud infrastructure inside their 6G networks might pay a premium for NEC/NTT. its worth noting that nokia drives nvidia hype marketing and is exposed the most to the news and big articles. I noticed NEC is way more difficult to find in articles and news, but you are more likely to find actual numbers that would be important for any comparison. there are some tests to highlights which can be compared to tests that nokia with nvidia does and were presented on recent event. The February 2026 DOCOMO/NTT demonstration — they showed network-controlled AI inference where the 5G core network itself decides in real-time which GPU resource handles which inference task, routing through IOWN APN photonic connections with minimal delay. This is architecturally a generation ahead of Nokia's model where the edge chip does everything locally.​ And February 25: University of Tokyo, NTT and NEC successfully integrated AI agents for 6G/IOWN platforms covering streaming semantic communication, AI-oriented media control and In-Network Computing simultaneously. This is the most advanced AI-native network architecture currently demonstrated anywhere in the world — not a reference architecture, an actual working integration. March 11, NEC announced Physical AI that anticipates human movement and psychological states — reducing workplace stress through sensor networks that predict human behaviour before incidents occur. This is the VSS blueprint concept but with a completely different design philosophy: instead of recording events and summarising them, NEC's system predicts and prevents events before they happen.​ indirect investment jx advanced metals i havent looked into the specifics yet but EU is also investing into relevant programms that are directly or indirectly involved in 6g investment strategies- especialy France GAIA-X, EuroStack - EU SNS JU 6G programme. > The EU 6G Sovereign Programme — €900m+ Already Committed The broader European context is the SNS JU (Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking) — the EU's formal 6G sovereignty programme: €630m already deployed since 2021 across 100 projects €270m more confirmed for 2026–2027 €230m flagship call planned for 2027 specifically for pre-commercial 6G validation 1,000+ contributions to global 3GPP standardisation from EU-backed projectsMWC 2026 (March 4) confirmed Europe's explicit goal: "We don't want to follow, we want to lead 6G" as a result there are companies that are more or less direct investment opportunities: Indra (Spain), Leonardo (Italy), Thales (France), Airbus Defence — have a seat at the table when 6G network architecture is finalised. Im investor only since the end of dezember, and hold NEC and Nokia in portofolio. I would like to have jx advanced metals but dont have budget xD orginally invested in Indra and leonardo for cybersecurity and defence and to increase my eu holdings, it is related to the topic indirectly.

2020isgreat

EU AMBASSADOR TO THE US STATES THAT THERE IS NO POSSIBILITY OF RETURNING TO RUSSIAN GAS DUE TO THE MIDDLE EAST CRISIS. probably because Russia gas terminals are being fucked[](https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2036846821365235855)

Samjabr

It is the year 2050: Musk’s droid legions sweep cities, hoping to locate the last free rebels, to be "recruited" for SpaceX's, Mars mining colonies. The US continues strikes on the EU from the annexed western part of Greenland And MSFT finally trades above $400 - (How the hell is it even down today 🤦‍♂️)

Magnificent_luck

EU spends billions on rearmament now. They have long term contracts. RH is a good buy at this level in my opinion

typhon0666

Europe knows a thing or two about war. Most of Europe has been living in a bit of a fantasy delusion regarding resources and global politics. Suffice to say that has somewhat been snapped back to reality and are even openly using rhetoric to preparing the populace for direct war. In the foreseeable future there will be heavy reinvestment in rearmament. Without rearmament EU goals cannot be achieved, not counting the direct threat of war with Russia, it's political strength in economics and trade will dwindle over time. The question really is if Rheinmetall will be producing popular weapon systems used in the future conflicts. The no brainer is AI/silicon, drones, aerospace, as the delivery systems and of course the munitions payload manufacturers.

_aliased

MSFT own employees dont want to use copilot. Xbox is dead. People see the backlash to Adobe's SaaS model. EU divesting from MS, China doesn't use MS... plenty of reason to be down 30%

Ledd10

I like them for space/satellites exposure for long term. The European defense companies seem the most likely to lead the space exploration for EU and the UK

WinstonSalemSmith

I am bullish and holding the ADRs in the USA. I first bought in Jan 2024 and sold 25 pct of my position at 110 USD or something. I continue to hold the remainder of the position based on German/EU investment in the defense sector and the quality of RNMBY products. I add to my position whenever RNMBY falls to 380 and 360, then sell at 410 and 420. If it keeps falling I will purchase more around 310. There is no such thing as a sure thing, but buying defense shares in a time of expanding defense budgets is logical.

Financial_Loan1337

Next thing you know, EU make a deal with Iran =))

Orpa__

A ceasefire will of course require an international guarantor, a role only China or the EU could fill.

OP_Penguin

If you add up taxes, education and healthcare costs, Americans pay an effective tax that’s higher than most of the EU, and if you lose your job and get sick, medical debt that can follow you for life. Get laid off and your wife is pregnant, whoopsie fucked for life. Having healthcare paid single payer is worth the increased tax rate, especially once you factor in end of life healthcare cost. On average, retirees should expect to spend 175k on healthcare in the US. That’s average, and dying sooner helps keep that number down. So while Americans get to revel in their marginally lower tax rate, we get little in return for it. Imagine you’re at a restaurant. You have $100. The menu is two items. Item 1 is $35. You get a stale egg salad sand which from a vending machine, no drink, and the waiter takes half of that $35 and gives it to another table to get up and punch a different customer in the face. Before during and after the waiter tells you that that customer was coming to take your egg salad sandwich. Item 2 is $55, includes 3 courses, and the waiter uses half the money to give your kids new contact lenses.

Tusen_Takk

Yes, I live here now. I make a p deece six figgies with 4 kids, a wife, and a Labrador. We have 0 debt, are frugal other than organic food, and it’s to the point we can’t save much every month anymore. It cost me $642 to get 3 weeks of staple groceries and diapers at Costco the other day. I didn’t even buy anything fun. The cost of living is easily 2-4x Europe but my salary is maybe 1.75x EU wages for my career

Tusen_Takk

What percentage of your salary is your healthcare + taxes? I’ve lived in both EU and U.S. and can assure you US is way more expensive (which is why salaries are usually a little higher)

mentalweapons

You dont know how strong the labor laws are in EU. Except its also really hard to start your own company though.

Silver-Direction-938

I work plastic injection molding in North EU. Our chief said last friday that 10% of raw materials can't be bought and shit will hit the fan in 2 months time if the Hormuz stays closed. We produce basic components with basic materials for your A.I. datacenter needs. Soon it is possible we can't produce them, or have to produce horrible quality from 3rd rate plastic. For me it is OK. Summer vacation is coming. I am unionised so the possible furloughment is just extra holiday for me. I will miss the 4,5x overtime pay though, but apparently what Jensen giveth, Trump can taketh away.

Dorkasteri

Yeah, you are right about that. I’m just not sure if FED can step in anymore. Inflation is getting wilder and wilder. EU rates have gone vertical. Atleast two hikes this year by ECB. Euribor 12M has gone from 2.22 -> 2.92 with 3 weeks.

Accidental-Genius

I think, to some extent, the EU knows it has to raise the floor on defense spending. What the ceiling will be, who the fuck knows. I’m not selling EUAD but not really eager to buy a ton more at this level.

yaboyalaska

moves in US and EU stocks are correlated EU went down big, US, not so much He thinks US will follow but instead of saying that he decided to be a prick to prove he is smarter than the users of (checks notes) wall street bets the irony is that the vix will crush like it always does and that other guy who bought the ORCL leaps is going to make far more money than this guy ever will

KinglexNUM

So just cause 50 stocks of EURO exchanges are highly correlated, that means that 500 stocks of US exchanges will mean revert to become highly correlated again (since historically the spread between the 2 metrics correlate)? Bro what stocks does the SX5E have? 50 stocks vs 500 stocks, with fundamentally different sectors. US has AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, EU has Hennesy, LOREAL lol

RareGuarantee3532

I will , see you in 11 hours for asian closure and EU opening, I'll pick you up with my lambo

jrex035

It's hard to say. On the one hand, the conflict with Iran and ongoing war with Russia makes it more likely for European arms manufacturers to get big new orders. But on the other hand, Europe is going to get pummeled by this energy crisis worse than the US or China, which raises questions about how much thee EU will invest in defense spending.

Apprehensive_Rub3897

Yes, the same missile could reach most of Austria and almost to Munich. EU is not as crazy as Trump. The best case scenario from all of this is to return to where we were less than a month ago.

Apprehensive_Rub3897

Not only did we go the opposite direction, we started a conflict that cut them off at the path. When Trump is finally gone, EU will still never trust a word we say all for a few dollars more, to own the libs and distract for all the evidence (not allegations) of the president raping at least one 13 year old.

DanasSideWife

The entire EU is working to build competitive software for their governments to get off their platform. There is no future where they can replace that revenue stream

FartPolluter

EU: Okay Iran, youve made your point now please open the strait of Hormuz and let the United States and Israel bomb you without retaliation please. Eurogooners: Oh *snap*. orange man not gonna like this

YondaimeHokage7

That’s true for accessibility, but there’s a tax catch depending on where you live. For example here in Bulgaria capital gains realized on regulated EU markets are tax-exempt. ​However, the National Revenue Agency doesn't view fractional shares as being traded on a regulated market because they are usually a broker-side 'feature' not an actual exchange-listed security. So while whole shares of ASML on Euronext are tax-exempt, fractional shares are treated as over-the-counter transactions rather than trades on a regulated market. So basically if I buy and sell whole shares, I pay 0% tax. If I buy fractionals, the NRA sees that as an off-market transaction and hits me with 10%.

Roxorek

|**Type**|**Commodity**|**Country / Region**|**Severity**| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |EMERGENCY|electricity|Sri Lanka|MODERATE| |RATIONING|diesel|United Kingdom|MODERATE| |RATIONING|gasoline|United Kingdom|MODERATE| |PRICE SPIKE|gasoline|United States|MODERATE| |EMERGENCY|energy|Philippines|CRITICAL| |EMERGENCY|gasoline|United Kingdom|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|fuel|Nigeria|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|fuel|Philippines|CRITICAL| |SHORTAGE|gasoline|Bangladesh|SEVERE| |SHORTAGE|fuel|China|MODERATE| |RATIONING|fuel|EU country|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|diesel|Australia|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|LPG|India|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|gasoline|United States|MODERATE| |PRICE SPIKE|high-octane\_fuel|Pakistan|SEVERE| |SHORTAGE|gasoline|Australia|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|fuel|Sri Lanka|MODERATE| |RATIONING|gasoline|Slovenia|MODERATE| |PRICE SPIKE|diesel|Australia|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|LPG|Cambodia|MODERATE| |RATIONING|petrol|Kenya|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|gasoline|diesel|India (Gujarat)|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|diesel|United States|SEVERE| |SHORTAGE|jet fuel|Africa|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|diesel|Bangladesh|MODERATE| |PRICE SPIKE|diesel|Philippines|SEVERE| |PRICE SPIKE|gasoline|Philippines|SEVERE| |RATIONING|gasoline|Myanmar|MODERATE| |SHORTAGE|natural\_gas|India (Gujarat)|SEVERE| |RATIONING|gasoline|Kenya|MODERATE|

te7037

$TUN is 32p while $TUNGF is $1.80. The UK is closer to the EU so $TUN will be a backup for the US and the EU markets.

jsands7

Why would it be the U.S. risking the lives? There’s oil tankers from 32 countries that have nothing to do with this that are legally allowed to sail through there. Iran is threatening to commit war crimes and murder EU, UN, and NATO civilian oil workers, and everybody is just going along with it

imalusr

Turkey is geopolitically unique. - Closest NATO ally to Iran, so Iran won’t attack it (again) - has unusually close relations with Russia allowing Russian citizens to fly in/out every day - could very well weather an energy crises better than most NATO/EU countries because it could trade oil/gas with Iran and Russia without needing that trade to occur via an ocean route. It has active pipelines to BOTH.

Ok_GAINZ

The EU has 0 SEC championships. Why tf would I invest there?

PositionJournal

Good question. Vast majority of rev is within the NA steel group. International sales is about 11-12% of net sales and even there they’ll have tailwinds because of renewed EU focus on infra . The tarrifs help because it protects CMC from cheaper importers

sneekyleshy

He did this to get the option to say that EU won’t help for all time to come and at the same time fuck with the stockmarket… As of early 2024, Iran is a full member of the BRICS bloc, having officially joined on January 1, 2024, alongside Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. Here are the key details regarding Iran's involvement in global blocs and sanctions: BRICS Membership: Iran joined BRICS (originally Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) to help advance a "multipolar world order" and strengthen ties with developing nations, often seen as a move to counter Western influence.

kaapooj

EU, Australia agree to free trade deal --bloomberg

AZMotorsports

Americans will pay a high price, but it’s the rest of the world, especially the EU, is F’d. Over 20% of natural gas has been removed from global trade for at least the next 5 years (this is per Qatar). Even more has been removed by Iran not shipping and the gas isn’t moving through the straight. The EU has a very large amount of NGL power plants and they can’t mine it. Come winter they are in massive trouble even if the war ends today.

Amori_A_Splooge

Why is this war different? Why do you feel the closing of hormuz is some big unforseen doomsday scenario? Covid shocked supply chains for years. Evergreen got stuck in the Suez. Russia invades Ukraine (again) and holds the EU hostage over high energy prices (again). I'm honestly curious what you think the long-term consequences that the closing of the straight of hormuz will be, and what makes you think they are hard to see when we've got pretty good contemporary examples to look at. Let alone the closing of the straight of hormuz is the card Iran has threatened to pull everytime so the situation is hardly a surprise. I'd argue that the US and the world are fairly well insulated against how bad a prolonged closure could have be if it occured five years ago. Each country has taken a look at the lessons above and recognized how fucked they're supply chains can be in times without war. The US is nowhere near as vulnerable to oil going through hormuz as it has been in the past. Maybe you can argue the EU is more vulnerable since they just got off Russian gas, but it's an easy counter to point out that the import and export infrastructure that takes years to build (and rebuild) was aggressively built out in response to Russians invasion in 2014 and 2022. For example, in 2014 the US had to change its export laws in response to Russians invasion and then had to build out everything before it could reasond. Similar efforts were needed in EU (in 2014 and again in 2022) to be able to receive and transmit energy. Now, this issue is not so much of an existential crises that literally causes Germany to wave regulatory and environmental laws to build out lng gas infrastructure in months rather than years, the issue is how long is this going to be and do countries need to sign long-term contracts elsewhere. War in the middle east is not some unforseen issue.

ChollyWheels

What is really interesting, and terrifying in this situation, is "TACO" is not an option. The USA can't say "let's just agree we won" and go home. The game is Iran's now. The only thing clear is nothing is clear -- in the background, cooler heads (especially in the EU) are actually having conversations; meanwhile death looks gigantically down.

Dizzy_Maybe8225

I am aware of this deal, so you think this is a good deal for the EU or India? I guess EU!!

beefstake

They need a Chinese security guarantee. EU is incapable and unwilling to provide one. China -might- be, but it would be a hard sell despite the upsides for China (probably bases in Iran, force projection in the middle east, etc) because it would cost them a shit ton. However it makes the most sense because they would essentially be spending money to protect their own oil supply. This would prevent further US attacks as then an attack on Iran would be an attack on China and that isn't a war the US wants to fight for a long time still.

Amori_A_Splooge

Wow, thanks for the link. Such useful info. Is this like the first trade deal that's ever been negotiated without the US? It's hard to imagine that either of the EU or India would trade with anyone other than the US. The thought of them doing so has absolutely changed my perspective. Thabk you!

WinningWatchlist

r/wallstreetindia is a better place for your posts IMO, r/stocks is mainly for US/EU investors

rychy_rych

Why listen to our allies when we already have our GREATEST ally consulting us. Best part is they're even paying us to consult with us when our other allies just want stuff in return or are greedy swamp ppl that won't pay us like Adelson. What does EU/SK/Japan know about war anyway? Remember when HAMAS escaped their little camp and crossed the Canadian border to kill and kidnap 1000s of Americans back across the border. Who stepped up for us? Our greatest ally.

Dying-Intern

The EU and UN are impotent and aren’t capable of enforcing a mortgage contract

mido_sama

Iran also wants deal but with 3rd party (EU, UN) enforcing it since they don’t trust USA anymore plus some benefits.

KateCrash87

yeah but I'm in the EU and traded a european index (moving all the same)

orange-heroin

I would generally agree w you cuz I had the same view during tariffs, harder to TACO by himself out this war though because if he cant sell it as a “Iran begged me” typa story - the middle east and EU could lose confidence in the states to be their military daddy and the lack of confidence then leads to shaky USD + if he taco by himself, then to pass through hormuz the other countries are forced to trade in Yuan - losing reserve currency status might suddenly make our 36t debt real money and not fake monopoly money and then its joever

Emergency_Dish_1213

Bullish if he actually gets an oil deal with Iran for US and EU.

NotMe357

Ya, but both mean he TACO. There is nothing much TACO can do now other than do what Iran asks him to do. If he dares not to attack Iran's Energy Facilities then he wouldnt dare to take Kharg Island either. EU and NATO need this oil problem to resolve fast so I think they'll join TACO to stop this war by be the middle-man and help TACO make a deal with them.

psyfregle

Idk, there was some Crazy Posts before. But in the EU the market startet Green.

acart005

Whats funny is EU poot holdera had a chance to get out.

leeuwvanvlaanderen

EU markets well into correction territory we’re fucked 

DMT1703

Going to invest stocks of companies that is either a renewable energy company in EU or related to the infrastructure of electricity or someshit. Might throw more on bateries related companies. I kinda doubt this "conflicts" in middle east gonna go wells cause so far I have more reason to believe it will rising tension than just de-risking atm/.

aja_18

I agree. But it's not only US that is now suffering... pretty much EU and big Asian countries are now starting to feel the effect of Iran war.

Commander_Celty

Nah, firmly out on the EU. Portfolio is looking good. Avoiding losses in high probability uncertainty is a gift. Still, how’s your portfolio doing? If it were in the EU would it be doing better? 😬