EU

Commercial_Deer_7114

Same with SAAB and it took a 20% hit on new news lately, behaving like a meme stock, high froth. What the bulls are not able to answer is that lets say there are 500 new planes purchased on a Europe-wide level, where are the pilots coming from? Let's say you purchase 2000 tanks, where are the crews coming from? The EU has a manpower problem that money can not fix.

Raichev7

I don't know about India and China, but I live in Eastern Europe, and I've visited the US a few times. From what I've seen so far I wouldn't live in the US. I feel much safer here at midnight in a shady part of town than I did 3 blocks away from Times Square. I really liked the nice neighbourhoods of San Francisco, but in terms of safety it's not even close to Eastern Europe. In terms of local purchasing power - if you're a good engineer in Eastern Europe you can be just as well off if not better than in the US. And when you take into account the social benefits - I doesn't make sense to live in the US. The only reason you would want to move there is if you're in the top 1%. The top end of salaries just does not scale as extremely in the EU as it does in the US. In the EU you might make €250k for a skillset that could command $1mil in the US

Horcsogg

FFs people kept saying this in mid March but I still bought into several EU defense stocks and I am up between 50-70% with some of them. Sold the ones that didn't go anywhere. It's not priced in, just need to find stocks that will still move.

ShipTheRiver

You’re far from the only one. It was the EXTREME consensus on Reddit stock subs in April that the stock market would never hit an ATH again, America was over, Trump was deliberately crashing the economy for the benefit of billionaires (incredibly regarded conspiracy theory on multiple levels), and the bottom was SP 3000 or lower.  I got downvoted absolutely to hell all throughout April for calling people out as doomers and saying that it would go back up. Even I didn’t think it’d go up as fast as it ultimately did, but still.  I was laughing my ass off a week or two ago when Trump threatened the 50% tariff on the EU a week or two ago and the market briefly tanked and then he almost immediately canceled it. The biggest reddit stock thread about it had the by-far-most-upvoted comment saying something sarcastic like “wow who could’ve seen this coming”. Like motherfucker, not anybody here. Funny how suddenly it’s so obvious to everyone that nobody’s deliberately tanking the US economy and it’s all gonna be fine. 

GlobalEvent6172

I started with EUAD and switched to NATO because it had several EU defense companies that EUAD did not (like Dassault). I’ve also put funds into VGK (Vanguard’s European markets ETF), and also added FLGR (Franklin Templeton’s Germany ETF). Yes I know there will be “overlap” and I’m fine with it. Germany is really going all in on defense and will become the European leader in that regard. Global X has a defense ETF that is a decent mix, but I liked how NATO really did include more European defense companies than EUAD.

TomatoSpecialist6879

Israeli attack on Iran isn't surprising, it's Iran's retaliation that is. The current agreed upon consensus is that Iran will just hold it in and attack non-important target with drones to appease their people and stall till Oct when the UN sanctions are set to expire. Once sanction lifts, their funds get unfrozen and they're back to trading like a regular country. US can't force other countries to comply with US' own sanctions against Iran when majority of the countries including EU(Minus France) are anti what's happening in Middle East. US will have to reapply for UN sanctions that will 100% be rejected, then at least stalled because Russia will be holding presidency of UN Security Council in Oct, then 3 Russia & China allied countries(Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Somalia) gets the monthly presidency seat until start of February 2027 when UK takes over for the month.

RaechelMaelstrom

This was my play as well. I managed to time the oil bottom perfectly and got a large position in US/EU oil stocks and they all offer sweet dividends on top. CVX, XOM, COP, BP, TTE

milkplantation

The military industrial complex doesn’t function like that. It doesn’t stop. The EU can build up their capacity to produce defense and supporting technology and then you get other countries buying it. Every time a country like Australia or Canada places a large order, there will be added profit. Every time a large collaboration project like [that undertaken by Japan, England, and Italy](https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Japan-s-next-gen-fighter-progressing-on-time-Italy-UK-defense-execs)…There will be profit. When Russia expands its front, when Europe increases its support of Ukraine, this sector will continue to increase. It’s not static, it’s growing. There is so much yet to be priced in.

Swred1100

I like SPRY… one product pharma, but that one product is an epinephrine nasal spray. I see a world where they have >75% of the epinephrine market in the next 5-7 years. Who would rather stab themselves with an auto-injector when there’s an alternative that is just as effective? They have enough cash + st investments for ~3 years of runway, approved in the US, approval pending in most EU countries + China. Epinephrine market size is projected to grow between 8.3-11.8% annually through 2032 (depending on which study) from $2.8B in 2023. Additional label expansion is also in the works, which would increase TAM.

builder45647

To pertect freedom of navigation. Allow goods to enter the EU. Prevent inflation. Posture and threaten Iran so that it doesn't escalate. It's cheaper to park an armada it the gulf then to allow shipping to be disrupted

AstaDivel

> A few data points I’ve been watching: Budget growth: EU defence budgets are on track for a ~7–9 % CAGR over the next 5 years to hit NATO’s 2 % GDP targets. Capex lead time: Major contracts (fighters, ships, land systems) have 3–6 year development cycles—buying before awards can mean catching the rally into revenue. Valuations: The sector ETF sits around 18 × forward earnings versus ~16 × for the S&P 500; pure-play names like BAE or Airbus Defence trade nearer 15 ×. FX dynamics: A softer euro boosts US-dollar returns but can squeeze margins on non-USD costs. If you’re truly in for a 5–10 year horizon, I’d start a position now and dollar-cost-average around contract-award news. Does anyone here track backlog growth or tender pipelines as their timing signal?

cherenk0v_blue

If Israel targeted Iran's oil facilities, US and EU would shit a brick. High oil prices will jack up US inflation and be a boon to the Russian economy - endangering the support Israel is getting from the Western powers wouldn't be worth what they would gain from striking Iranian oil production.

NVDAismygod

Alright let’s relax now, they wouldn’t be doing shit if the US and EU didn’t feed them tens of billions of dollars every year for decades.

Namehisprice

The EU itself stated in a strategic review last year that they would target 50% of procurement needs being sourced domestically by 2035, they are low 40s today (IE only a marginal increase). EU defense stocks, especially RHM, are already effectively priced to perfection on 5% of GDP defense spend which has been the latest signaling from Germany (and some other Nato members). You can see price action reaction to each incremental increase in assumed % of GDP increase decelerating. 2%->3.5%->5%, each bump has seen diminishing returns on share price gains. EU has no military industrial base (realistically), now they are working towards having a minimal one which is why we have seen the massive short term share price appreciation. At this point a long position on RHM is all execution risk on what is effectively a welfare economy converting a significant % mix of its government spend to military production. It's possible they pull everything off perfectly, but risk weighting is to the downside in my opinion relative to a BAE, LMT, CW, etc.

Impressive-Cat-2680

Late to the party is an easy answer but… Depending on your investment horizon. If you are okay to hold for more than just these two years. I don’t think you are late to the party, given the PE so far is around 30x (if you don’t take into account of Rheinmetall). The price atm will only be reflecting the expected contracts that are likely to materialised. But the EU and German and the U.K. all agree that this will be the key policy focus to increase the gpd share of defence. If you take this views of a long term investment and forget about the last surge of share price that you missed , likely you will still be able to enjoy the second or the third party ….  The risk would be when the Ukrainian Russo war stop, the share price might take a hit but regarding the overall strategic shift of priority in Europe there still be a lot of room for growth. 

chotchss

I saw the new Mission Impossible in the theater last night and Rheinmetall had a minute long add, something that would never have happened just two years ago. EU defense stocks will only grow as the EU and rest of the world starts to slowly move towards alternatives to US providers.

DayAffectionate4077

Trump launches missiles at Iran. EU goes ham, sanctions everyone and their mothers. And SPY goes sideways on Monday.

greytoc

You didn't share where you live. What is your tax residency status? If you live in the EU - there are tons of UCITS options. If you are in the US - you may have to worry about PFIC tax. If you live in any other country - you have to consult your local tax laws. Since you already have an account that is domiciled in the EU - why can't you just use one of the many ex-US funds available?

xiongchiamiov

This seems hardly useful. Also, given that they live in the EU, they've already done the international investing with the US, and are now looking to figure out home country investing.

Zealousideal-Bug6651

not even started yet and EU military stocks already pumping

Tricky_Statistician

lol that would cause a 5% drop easily If Russia were to send assistance to Iran and declare a “no fly zone” as peacekeeping operation in Iran, we gap down 2% Sunday night If Iran declares straight of Hormuz closed, we gap down 2% Sunday night There is no catalyst for a 1-2% Green Day on Monday. No trade discussions happening now, no Iran nuclear deal, no peace in Ukraine happening at the moment, EU isn’t interested in a trade deal negotiation over the weekend while there’s a war breaking out.. the market priced in Iran just being angry and launching random missiles that will usually get intercepted, not an escalation

EnergyOwn6800

We are free to have our own opinions and make our own predictions. But when you look at the fact that: * Model Q is coming (Cheaper more affordable Tesla) * Hardware 5.0 (10x more powerful than the current hardware 4.0. even 5x would be insane) * Tesla Robot maybe * Robotaxi Also keep in mind U.S and EU rely heavily on SpaceX and Starlink now. It is unlikely Tesla will become worthless.

gnanwahs

>Is india still scooping up russian oil? of course, even the EU is buying Russian LNG 🤣

StonkAnalysis1

Knee jerk reaction. Look for escalation and more capital controls out of the EU and you’ll be happy you bought the dip.

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

Mixed technicals and broader overbought issues vs news flows, particularly China @ 55% and EU trade a mystery 

thebiglebowskiisfine

IDK, politics aside... Investors should look through the noise and politics and invest based on fundamentals. The fund could donate money to whatever entity they want to support based on profits. Having someone inside a fund push around capital on their personal politics isn't a fund I want to be invested in. I have followed this dispute from day 1 and the Union isn't playing with a full deck. Withholding license plates from EU customers isn't the way to negotiate with a company you want to form a Union in. Tesla employees have struck down the idea of joining, so these efforts will only widen the gap.

Desperate-Hearing-55

Swedish pension funds that had sold all Tesla stocks. AMF Folksam AP7 Denmark: PensionDanmark EU biggest pension fund. ABP

give_me_coin

By helping and guiding Iran on developing its nuclear capabilities, the US would not only control its progress but also have intelligence on the inner workings of the program. By working together, both countries would show goodwill, foment bilateral agreements and trade. The whole region would be safer. This is why the EU and US sunk millions into this agreement. Israel, on the other hand, could no longer wreak havoc in the region without any consequences, which is why they bribed Trump into destroying the agreement.

michalsosn

can the EU even pressure Israel

Cool-Intention9207

Oui les USA sont finis, c'est de la merde avec Trump. Investir en EU c'est une bone idée

wes_ly

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Efficient-Magician63

I think USA, regardless of their president, has always been pro-Israel, regardless of what this entails. It's kind of the same for the EU too. Sure, they may condemn Israel in words but nobody will take the same actions that were taken against Russia. Israel is an ally of the EU and USA and such is allowed to do whatever.

koettahuve

EU proxy good, US proxy bad.

Desperate-Hearing-55

Tariffs pause indefinitely. It's clear after Bessent said EU will give another 90 days pause if trade deals not set after deadline.

Doomwaffel

I am also curious why the EU (who was a big part of the deal) didnt push for a normalization on its own.

cyborgnyc

The WH already said they would be delayed again "Bessent said the U.S. is currently in talks with 18 of its most important trading partners. As long as the negotiations continue, the tariff pause for those countries could continue beyond its July 9 expiration, he said. "It is highly likely that those countries—or trading blocs, as in the case of the EU—who are negotiating in good faith, we will roll the date forward to continue good faith negotiations," Bessent said." (Investopedia)

CatsalsoCookies

BYD is selling really well in EU, what do you mean?

DrMelbourne

Yes. Most EU countries have them. Prices are much higher than in China though. Much higher.

go_go_tindero

EU has BYD cars ?

Choice_Doctor_966

You can buy them in the UK and Scandinavia they are (supposedly) starting to role out to parts of the EU

Bright_Albatross649

who actually buy BYD cars, like they cant sell to the US, EU, or india?

chrisjd

Iran could disrupt the flow of oil to get Trump and the EU to put pressure on Israel to back down completely though, they could decide to use it as leverage

BadBadGrades

I am going to do a prediction , EU gets more tariffs than china….

Routine_Slice_4194

Trump wants low oil prices because of inflation risks, EU wants low oil prices to hurt Russia's economy. Both will have told Israel not to touch Irans oil industry.

iThinkiStartedATrend

A war between Israel and Iran wouldn’t involve Europe and I’m pretty sure the EU will say the attacks were stupid. China isn’t getting involved in anything that isn’t Taiwan. Russia needs its weapons manufactured or it loses its only edge in the war (drones produced by Iran). This already happened once and all Iran did was shoot a bunch of missiles at nothing.

grumpvet87

he took the US out of the deal, he didn't "end the deal" "The [United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) announced its withdrawal from the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA), also known as the "Iran nuclear deal" or the "Iran deal", on May 8, 2018.[^(\[1\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#cite_note-1)[^(\[2\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#cite_note-bbc-2)[^(\[3\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#cite_note-:0-3)[^(\[4\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#cite_note-4) The JCPOA is an agreement on [Iran's nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran) reached in July 2015 by [Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran) and the [P5+1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P5%2B1) (the five [permanent members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council)—[China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China), [France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/France), [Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia), [United Kingdom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), United States—plus [Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany))[^(\[5\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#cite_note-5)[^(\[6\])](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#cite_note-6) also called E3/EU+3."

Legionnaire11

Germany and Japan are highly respected. Germany is probably the most influential nation in the EU. If they can come back within ~60 years, the US eventually will and much sooner. People were saying the same thing during the first term, and Biden restored a lot of what was lost. This term is worse so far, and we still don't know where it bottoms out, but we will eventually rebound.

goodbodha

Bad sign for global economic activity not so much the dollar. The US may feel like they are doing terrible vs what people expect but how are they doing vs the other major economies? China is imploding from debt and demographics. Ditto Japan, Korea, and a good chunk of the EU. The weakening dollar is likely more because globalization is either failing outright or is going to be run at smaller scale. Either one requires fewer dollars. This period of trouble might be short or long. No one knows, but we can all see the system is having a major problem. Debts globally have exploded with large amounts owed by consumers, local governments, and nations. Demographics in most of the developed world is far from ideal. Nationalism and populism is on the rise. None of that is helpful for a unified global trade system.

Competitive_Ride

I wonder how the EU pension funds will do if the market crashes on top of the euro strengthening

SpicyLemonZest

People don't forget things that *directly* affect them, yes. But the US's current economic warfare consists almost exclusively of tariffs, where the direct effects apply only to American importers who can't boycott the US and foreign exporters who have strong incentives not to. If EU tariffs end at the beginning of 2029, and a French winery in 2030 gets approached with a big new contract to buy some bottles for export to the US, are they really going to turn down the money because the US had dumb trade policy from 2024-2028? (Perhaps they might insist on having the contract terms align with US presidential terms so they don't get rugpulled in 2032.)

Livio63

If Trump will attack Greenland, i.e. EU., it will be the end of dollar

Inconceivable76

EU is already starting to moonwalk

AdPristine5131

Remember that any valuation of currency or stock is not based on inherent value, but on trust. A company can have great assets, but if buyers do jot trust that they are well managed, they will find a better solution. Now the US currency has had the highest level of trust for about a century. And the reason why people buy our bonds is because we were a monolith. We had massive natural resources, the largest investment community both internationally and domestic, and we were global leaders. The last one is in several different ways, but UN security council, NATO, and USAID were arguably the top 3. What has happened in the last month is that the US is no long a powerhouse, lets look at why. The natural resources is an interesting case because the crux of that resource comes down to food production. We have massive territorial waters and the midwest. However these have been slowly diverted to focus on inefficient food production. I like beef and soda as much as the next American, but they use an excess of resources for little payoff, and are heavily subsidized despite that inefficiency. And in the modern markets, we’re well behind on manufacturing because we invested overseas rather than keep it in house. We don’t have the manpower required and corporations realized it was cheaper to ship out rather than automate. We have some of the largest conglomerates of capital in the world, but its not actually stable. I’m a millennial, so this is my 3rd/4th recession. And because our manufacturing is based overseas, what we have to invest in is not as stable as it appears. Where I live we have a ton of government contracts. Everyone in my family is either contractor or employee. But DOGE staffing cuts has put literally all of that at risk. My state is now experiencing major unemployment concerns, and our only solution is to retrain thousands of former gov employees. These are specialists, they don’t slot into much, except gov contracts which they legally cant work on. Housing is the one everyone is talking about, but at the same time its become bloated because it is the hot commodity, meaning that we’re one huricane away from another housing crisis because we just need one corporation to crash. Divesting ownership away from the individual means that housing is now a all or nothing risk, which sounds great except I wrote my thesis on the housing crash of 08. Finally we have global leadership. The US has had immense power since WW2 because we handled crisis management. Not always ethically, but we were in the top spot. But that means that we’ve been in more wars in the last 3 decades than any other country. That makes us scary, sure, but adds uncertainty. And in the past 90 days, we’ve cut USAID, losing our allies in the 3rd world countries. We’ve spoken quite openly about leaving NATO, destroying alliances with the EU. And spoken openly about invading Canada and Greenland. And the one place where we theoretically had negotiation power, Ukraine vs Russia, we have essentially pulled out of it, against our allies wishes, right before Ukraine pulled off what is probably the third most single expensive bombing run attack in history. So we look both dangerous and unstable.  And this could be managed on a case by case basis, but the problem is that our allies simply worked around us. Canada is actively working on trade deals with the EU. China is sourcing away from the US, because Australia does everything we do but cheaper. Ukraine is now offering to just buy our military surplus, instead of having it donated, probably because the EU knows this is a proxy war and knows how to invest in one historically. And its easy to talk about Mexico as if its a third world country, but they’re arguably the third most powerful country in the Americas, they have plenty who wish to trade with them, they’re not hurting for allies, they just never had a leadership role in part because we filled it with the monroe doctrine. And all of this right when the country is erupting in riots because of military and paramilitary on the streets. Honestly, if we were any smaller of a country, this would be a grizzly. I’m just happy its only a brown bear.

Aetius3

I don't think everything will ever go back to normal. Here in Canada, the mood is "our deep brotherhood with America is over. Every 4 years they go from being nice to c\*\*ts so we are going to take our business elsewhere for good". And EU, LATAM etc are all doing the same. The movie "The Fall of the American Empire" will start with a scene showing Trump's second inauguration.

Just1ncase4658

As an EU citizen who works in tech, the US still has solid footing here. Most of our tech relies on US made tech, but don't be fooled. There are already plans of moving away from that reliance. Our memory is short and I'm sure if the president (Trump or the next one) would do a kick ass job of fixing PR it's very much a salvageable position but if the US today goes down this path I'm pretty sure it'll become economically isolated.

RaechelMaelstrom

I think people are still fleeing the US market for all sorts of reasons. If you're in Europe, and looking at the SP500, you're way down since April, because of the dollar falling about 10%. Then in the huge embarassing bill the deficit will be huge, and talk of increasing foreign investment taxes via the section 899 "unfair foreign investment" will make things a mess for foreign investment. Nobody knows or trusts what the US is going to do. I've been rebalancing to get heavier into international stocks, especially Europe, even if the European markets go down, with the dollar weakening, you make money. The shoe is now on the other foot. My view is that the EU is going to be the next superpower to replace the US.

No-Veterinarian8627

This is quite interesting, though. Dow Jones is going up while the dollar decreases in value compared to i.e. the euro. What does it mean? Hell I know, but I suspect that less governments are trusting the US while people still buying stocks, knowing that even though the US government may be failing, strongly established companies, much less. The stock market is just an ammalgimation of companies and those are usually led by more astute people than Trump. MS for example already showed that they are ready to open up a purely European subsidaries, not under US control to soothe any fears. How much of it is true? Nobody knows, but EU companies slowly divest from US companies. It's just there is hope that Trump, at some point, simply reverses all decision (as he has done already... partly) and everything goes back to "normal." I think that increases the stockmarket while the dollar becomes less worth.

Stanard-

Well, according to the information on the internet, the number is a lot, mostly EU tho.

susulaima

My plan is to keep buying VOO. But I'm worried if the USD keeps devaluing it will ruin my gains. Is it a good idea to diversify to EU like VXUS?

Due-Tea3607

The USD is an extension of the government, and given the unserious fiscal nature in dealing with... ...everything, I don't see a reason to take the USD seriously either. The more the USD goes down, the less the yields on treasuries can make up for it plus inflation. The net loss of purchasing power causes investors to dump USD and USD denominated assets/equities even more--and there is the death/debt spiral. There are very sizable USD outflows to more stable places, primarily EU which has seen its markets expand and grow compared to the SPX, YTD. Take a look at the yields in EU equities compared to the US if you have time. It's no coincidence that Blackrock made an announcement to expand EU investment recently.

ReadyThor

I cashed out all US stocks 6 years ago and closed all my US accounts and opened EU and UK ones.

ZeroWallStreet

Surprisingly, the EU market is doing well, and the main booster is defense spending.

AI-Is-A-Scam

I repeat, EU is on the brink of collapse

Xihl

i feel like 🥭 might actually just tariff the EU at 50% lmao

ThisKarmaLimitSucks

The Eurozone bond market is worth about another $20T when you sum the member states up. In total, the US is about 35% of the global sovereign bond market ([from 2024](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/102-trillion-of-global-debt-in-2024/)). We're definitely the biggest player, but we haven't crowded out the entire room. As far as other places not being able to absorb all of our money, I don't see that as a problem. I think the opposite will actually be the issue with the sovereign debt market, where investors won't put up enough money for everyone to borrow. The US, China, EU, and Japan are all issuing like crazy and sticking their hands out into the market, and I don't know if there are enough lenders around the world willing to give that to them. Not unless yields jump. There's capital out there in the world that can be sucked up (Chinese real estate has even more capital tied up than the US Treasury market does), but that money won't be unlocked and flow into government debt unless that debt starts offering higher yields. That's why I think these nations are all going to start printing. But hey, if investors want to liquidate US debt and jump into Eurobonds at 2.5%, then so much the better.

Mothrahlurker

Airbus is very much an EU project.

Consistent-Duck8062

"Inflation is a global phenomenon". That's the biggest lie. It was US+EU phenomenon that flooded whole world due to the outsized influence these 2 currencies have. As to the "outstanding job", I think the absolute democrat wipeout in elections clearly shows what americans think about this success.

Das-Noob

Pharma stuff could possibly come from Canada and EU. The only issue I see from this is shipping, and the way we’re going the Northwest passage might open up and fix that for em too.

Beatless7

I'm Canadian. I'd rather join the EU. Trump will break the deal on a whim.

Roxorek

bitcorn 4% away from ATH US wanna raise debt ceiling by 5 trillion trump wants new fed chair that will lower rates and devalue dollar even more EU already at very low 2% interest rates so people buying bitcoin as money markets don't pay shit i'm ready for 200k corn

SZJX

The EU and UK markets are also making ATHs though

terrybmw335

Also keep in mind the USA and world bond markets do not operate in a vacuum. Other major economies, including Chnia and EU have their own economic growth and debt issues. Depending on how they do overtime relative to the USA you may went up with less overall inflation than you expect even over time. Ideally though, USA spending needs to be drastically cut IMHO.

GiftToTheUniverse

Are you kidding? [No design??](https://whatisproject2025.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=21456317456&gbraid=0AAAAAp0mBCFnwOwNnCVFHRN50GghVg60s&gclid=CjwKCAjw9anCBhAWEiwAqBJ-c0fc-5EQBECBrM51ceoufWsxDA2V81OdVkMbROkr1trBJ3b-F7hWjxoCj8UQAvD_BwE) The Heritage Foundation spent years putting together their plan for what to do if they got another shot at ConDon's unrestrained chaos. Peter Navarro’s chapter, “The Case for Fair Trade,” is implemented in Trump’s second term. It specifically targets China, India, the EU, and others for tariffs starting April 2 “Liberation Day.” **The term "Liberation Day" was coined by Peter Navarro, Trump’s former trade adviser, in his own materials and public statements.**

nkkkkky99

I see no growth whatsoever in the future for the EU stockmarkets and the US still has the best companies in the world, but yeah I’m still down 20% from ATH, even after the recovery.

TestInteresting221

Firstly, the fed does not have a mandate on exchange rates. 🥭 also does not want higher rates. Higher rates are just going to decimate exports. Also, lower rates are good for big corp profits! The lower the USD exchange rates, the worse it will be for the EU and Chyna companies. If USD continues to drop, watch the EU and Chyna economies going into recession soon!

Hot-Problem2436

Rklb just made it so they can do business in the EU, so there's that. Plus they already have a bunch of gov contracts.

BouchWick

There's literally nothing going on in Europe and this guy says civil unrest lol. I live in Brussels and I'm in Berlin. Two capitals of EU.

ColdZal

I have flown quite often and without even trying, only flew Airbus. No idea which airline has that many Boeings in EU.

Open-Employ3158

$ is on it’s way to become the new Turkish lira. Thankfully i hold lot of EUR which is basically growing stronger fast everyday against the $, bad thing is when investing from EU to US everything just keeps going down. Hoping for the $ to stabilize after Orange man is gone.

skrabytomo

Yeah i just cant stand losers saying lies. Googlable facts. * **Appeals court found procedural flaws** * In **December 2024**, the Bucharest Court of Appeal deemed the human trafficking and rape indictment legally flawed and returned the case to prosecutors for revisions [en.wikipedia.org+15abcnews.go.com+15newsweek.com+15](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/romanian-court-andrew-tate-case-trial-missteps-prosecutors-116951579?utm_source=chatgpt.com). * This **did not dismiss** his charges—it meant prosecutors must gather more evidence or amend their case before moving toward trial. * **Restrictions lifted, but not acquitted** * In **July 2024**, a court eased his travel restrictions: he could leave Romania—but only within the EU—while under judicial control [abcnews.go.com](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/romanian-court-andrew-tate-case-trial-missteps-prosecutors-116951579?utm_source=chatgpt.com)[apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/andrew-tate-asset-seizures-court-romania-a90b9ee6e91b0a2a4c58eeb3d8fd3304?utm_source=chatgpt.com)[theguardian.com+2apnews.com+2reddit.com+2](https://apnews.com/article/andrew-tate-romania-human-trafficking-8fac1b98bbe012d2633cd6654950a51b?utm_source=chatgpt.com). * In **February 2025**, Romania allowed him (and his brother Tristan) to leave the country entirely; this was a procedural decision, not a clearance of charges

skrabytomo

Please educate me. * **Appeals court found procedural flaws** * In **December 2024**, the Bucharest Court of Appeal deemed the human trafficking and rape indictment legally flawed and returned the case to prosecutors for revisions [en.wikipedia.org+15abcnews.go.com+15newsweek.com+15](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/romanian-court-andrew-tate-case-trial-missteps-prosecutors-116951579?utm_source=chatgpt.com). * This **did not dismiss** his charges—it meant prosecutors must gather more evidence or amend their case before moving toward trial. * **Restrictions lifted, but not acquitted** * In **July 2024**, a court eased his travel restrictions: he could leave Romania—but only within the EU—while under judicial control [abcnews.go.com](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/romanian-court-andrew-tate-case-trial-missteps-prosecutors-116951579?utm_source=chatgpt.com)[apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/andrew-tate-asset-seizures-court-romania-a90b9ee6e91b0a2a4c58eeb3d8fd3304?utm_source=chatgpt.com)[theguardian.com+2apnews.com+2reddit.com+2](https://apnews.com/article/andrew-tate-romania-human-trafficking-8fac1b98bbe012d2633cd6654950a51b?utm_source=chatgpt.com). * In **February 2025**, Romania allowed him (and his brother Tristan) to leave the country entirely; this was a procedural decision, not a clearance of charges

Fit_Neighborhood9251

I am the EU poor you are talking about.

Educational_Face_610

You are on EU Poor time atm

Fox_n_Roll

DAX, especially the TOP 10 included by market cap don't make much revenue in germany.. the others, also do make most money outside germany and even EU

PeaceIsFutile

Finally, the US can now focus on the real enemy. The EU.

shakdnugz

There's no point wondering 1. Fiscal policy may want to find better rates to rollover but it's a nicety not a necessity. The US prints the Usd so they cannot default, direct monetisation is end game, that's what's beneath the fancy suit 2. Yes, no; most inflation is driven by impacts on technology (and window guidance; directed flows) 3. The narrative in aggregate is baby boomer capital being stored away for retirement, meaning less being distributed for lending, meaning higher borrowing rates, while also less international demand for treasuries or outright dumping of treasuries (EU selling to fund war preparations, china selling to fund stimulus) means bonds need to offer higher yields while term premia pushes marginal costs of bonds a little more (due to the inertia of this delta), so the rolling/refinancing at the long end is more expensive which just makes future rolls even worse. Short end is higher frequency and less desirable. And budget cuts did not work, most everything is essential. Only thing to do is monetise directly and roll till infinity. Or fiscal adopts btc lol For investors: no margin(no liquidations) and just hold tech and btc, outperform debasement while sitting in secular industries, they can only debase and print there's literally nothing else. Tl;dr imo bond yields don't matter to Wall Street they matter to the government If bonds edge higher: they want to print If bonds edge lower: we still deal with everything that has been printed

FullDerpHD

My guy, you have been propagandized or something because all of that is ridiculous. It's not shocking though, you seem to be from the EU and EU nations certainly have a vested interest in propagandizing people to continue the status quo. Stop for a second and look at where most of the major world organizations get funding from. I mean for fucks sake... The second largest investor of the WHO is a is literally not even a country. It's a foundation created by Bill Gates, a private American citizen. The entire EU military is subsidized by the fact the USA basically outspends the rest of the world combined and are generous enough to stay in NATO and defend you from the not one but TWO nuclear superpowers that are on the same landmass as you. The "good" is not the US Dollar and it never has been. The actual "good" is the US consumer and these unfair trade markets are tapping us out. The American dream is quickly dying. Our jobs are shipped overseas, We have shitty healthcare, Housing prices have become unsustainable, but hot damn were subsidizing your military, and buying everything from from medical supplies to plastic toys from our literal biggest threat and enemy. It's insanity and it needs to change. You're also making the wild mistake of assuming we're advocating for isolationism. We're not. Nobody is talking about isolationism or becoming an export heavy economy. We will still buy things, we just won't be doing it with such wildly uneven trade deals. You can't bar us from your markets while making barriers that prevent us from selling to you too.

Lepurten

You need to understand that the US-Dollar itself is (was) a good in high demand. It was a very convenient position for the US to be in for decades that did allow trade deficits. Trump is pissing it away. Your simplistic view on this is ill-advised. Higher exports than imports cause deflation (others need your currency, the price of your currency goes up), bigger imports than exports cause inflation (people need other currencies more than your own to buy all this stuff). That's usually the case. Not for the US dollar because others want the US dollar as a world currency. Of course there is a deficit because they are willing to basically give you stuff on top because your currency is worth it on its own. The US holds the printers for what everyone needs to buy stuff internationally. I hope this makes it a bit more understandable why you are just really really wrong and how angry I would be for my government to give up this position. And really, I don't really need this reshuffle of balances of power in my life, but the EU might actually come out on top, so okay with me I guess. Let's just hope it's us and not China.

Lepurten

Why? If it was a problem, you would see huge US-Dollar inflation. Now, there was inflation, but it was a world wide phenomenon, relatively speaking the US-Dollar is (was) very stable. Why is that? Because the entire worlds economy needs US-Dollars. And the US has the printers for them. And then, foreigners also bring their US-Dollars back into the US to buy the allegedly safest bonds there are in the world. This system worked extremely well for the US for decades and Trump is destroying it by destroying trust in the US dollar. Once trust is destroyed, other countries moved away from the US-Dollar, yes, the deficit will absolutely become a problem. Trump doesn't seem to understand the system, his followers certainly aren't. Sure, you can make the US more independent of the world, but wealth will be on a sharp decline. Very sharp. And so will be the US' leading position in the world, which is kind of scary from a Euro-perspective. On the plus-side, EU-policies are not dominated by the anti-intellectuals yet and the EU is moving to seize the opportunity for itself. It's very convenient to have a "world-currency", and the Euro qualifies in many ways. There are indicators that German bonds are replacing US bonds as safe haven bonds. We might be taking over the role the US doesn't want to play anymore. Fine with me.

Sofakingwhat1776

EU tariff pause ends in 2 wks...

bladzalot

lol… awesome… The last time I got my hopes up and thought I might be able to post impossible numbers was the last time he said some stupid shit about tariffs on the EU of 50% a few weeks ago. I closed the day holding puts and the market crashed 13 points in after hours… I was so hyped and woke up at 6am MST to see that it had already recovered 80% of that and climbing… by the time the market opened I made $100… at 8pm the night before those puts were worth 1300% I cannot wait til 2028

Constant_Story8217

Isn't US on the same side as Russia? Should be US+RU+NK vs UKR + EU vs Iran vs Israel. Fucking FFA

Usual_Profit_2309

Haha, I've been to a few 49ers games. 1. I don't like all the extra debt we're taking on, but the tax cuts might pay for themselves if it results in more economic activity. I think we seriously need to spend less even if it means cutting some services like medicare for undocumented families who have one legal kid, and just give it to the kid instead. I think we could save a lot if the government stayed out of education, but again that could cause a short term lack of funding which we need to stay ahead of China on Ai. I think defense is a good investment, especially the Golden dome. That would essentially make our country immune to nuclear threats so we have a much higher bargaining power when it comes to trade deals. There is so much regulation that's costing taxpayers money right now that we really need to cut though. 2. For the trade war, I'm ok with it as it seems Europe needs us more than we need Europe right now. 90% of what we use is produced domestically and we create 10% more energy than we consume, so even if the entire world embargos us, we will be fine. That said, it will defeinitely hurt in a few areas like game consoles, and chips. I know our weapons are world class, and that's where we get a lot of our power, so I don't like the idea of the EU having the capability to make current gen fighters for example, as then we may be left out of NATO type deals and won't be able to negotiate as good trade deals. EU on the other hand already seems to be dealing with high unemployment compared to the US, and the additional migrants make it even harder for the manufacturing as they drive the wages down quite a bit. The US is responsible for about 5% of your GDP, which you could bounce back from I'm sure, but would obviously suck for us as we have the best tech and stuff and theres only so many high income consumers in the world not in the EU. 3. I think the Aid to Ukraine is seen as a hot topic because of a few reasons. But we've contributed/commited like 180 Billion so far, and we're just one country who has nothing to lose if Ukraine gets taken over by Russia. Europe on the other hand has sent less than that despite being in Putins path potentially. I think the taxpayers don't like the idea of paying for it when it feels like other countries expect us to do the heavy lifting. Another reason is that we just want the war done. Lots of people are dying left and right, both sides, and Russia can't lose as they have like 4x the people and 10x the GDP. We're just prolonging the inevitable. Third, a lot of people think that getting to involved could lead to WW3, and we don't want that. They don't want any escalation of the conflict and want it to just stay between those two countries. Then finally, Ukraine is very corrupt. They've already taken a lot of our aid and funneled it into the pockets of businessman. One case an official bought a bunch of overpriced coffins for the dead, and gave himself huge kickbacks. Not to mention Zelensky doing some shady stuff, like charging his political opponents with crimes. Why would Americans want to donate if only 75 cents on the dollar actually makes it to the front lines? And we still have to pay to replace that military equiptment if its in that form instead.

ComradeShorty

Tell that to my EU pie which is up 150% YTD LMAO

TechTuna1200

Any country they can't strong-arm. So probably China and the EU

JohannesTT

Oh before I go, I wanted to ask something. You seem like a person who actually argues US economic policy through - well, economic policy. It also seems apparent that you are at least partly in alignment with the current government or at least their economic policy. So my questions to you is: 1. Is there any particular part of it that you can't understand the reason to or you disagree with. 2. How do you feel like about the potential trade war with the EU (personal interests, as you might've guessed) 3. Economically speaking, why was aid to Ukraine become such a hot topic (in a negative sense) When it's rather miniscule and honestly not all bad for the US economically. Just the politics behind it or? I don't expect an answer to all or any of these, just thought I'd ask when I have a chance. Really trying to wrap my head around the current US politics and all insights especially from the non-haters is very interesting and valuable information to me. So thank you if you answer, if you don't have the time. Don't worry you don't owe me anything, I know. Cheers! (also go 49ers as a retired European American football player)

casullivan0704

If not long term US Treasuries… what is a better long term flight to quality asset? EU Bonds? lol. The quality has diminished but the next best is a big step down.

Plastic-Guarantee-88

Europe (especially Germany) has done well this year, probably in part because they're picking up the pieces of trade that we are shutting ourselves out of. Valuations are still a bit better in Europe than here but things have narrowed a bit. If we get another 25% outperformance EU > USA, it will be time to reconsider.

Valianthe

My guesses: Perhaps because the tariff percentages with China aren’t changing and the deal is only for 6 months, more inflation numbers this week, plus two treasury auctions this week. Also, EU deal isn’t supposed to make the deadline date, maybe a framework, but they still may miss it. Jamie Dimon’s comments earlier today, and other articles about stocks (S&P) being overvalued and near highs.

Bxdwfl

"EU likely to be at 'very end' of US deals" - Nutlick 😬