EU

cleverhobbits

If Asian economies are truly in trouble and EU is not far off due to energy shortages, then money will leave those shores and flow into US markets. That portends a green day to start the week unless there’s an escalation in the Hormuz.

Wowmuchrya

Well too late now, doesn't even matter if he TACO's. 7 weeks without ships going through the strait is gg lol. EU/Asia are fucked.

TarrifJacksonJr

Trumps about to rip into a podcaster and drop a ticker Isreal will keep dropping bombs (never stopped) Iran will misplace some more mines in the straight Uganda will lower demands to 500 million dollars and a GF China, Russia, and Turkey will keep supplying Iran Turkey could potentially join the war on the side of Iran EU and various countries like the UK and Germany potentially enter on the side of the USA to re-open the straight Spain, Japan, and Korea are haters and keep telling every1 they are regarded Uganda makes a deal for 250 million and an e-girl More epstein files get released

HFB_To_You

Orban can try his coup as well on Sunday for added EU instability, if there's not already volatility enough.

YeonneGreene

>Forking is a git command. Maintaining a sovereign operating system stack is a multi-billion euro, decade-long institutional commitment. "Just fork it" is the tech equivalent of "just print more money." Yes, and? You think the USA is going to blow up the entire FOSS industry tomorrow by shackling it with hard export controls (granted, today's the US government is virulently stupid)? You think France can't find a billion euros in its budget to move mountains if it needs to? You think France needs to in-house ALL of it at once and couldn't at least temporarily pivot to EU-sourced alternatives that have been spooling up over the last few years or been spooled up? You think it's unprecedented that an adversarial country might be able to maintain its own sovereign operating system within a relatively short timespan? Or that it must necessarily shun all relations with the US-driven FOSS to achieve its aims of sovereign control of its government software stack? Like, you are basing your assessment on the doomed effort of one city that doesn't have the budget, economic levers, regulatory powers, or compelling national security interests of a nation state. Frankly, LiMux is irrelevant. You should be looking at Kylin, which took 5 years to stand up in the early 2000s, or Astra, which took about 8 in the 2010s.

Rfunkpocket

the day the EU said they wouldn’t help open the strait until the fighting stopped, was the day Trump began only looking for a off-ramp allowing him to save face. this is over. nothing but all caps meltdowns from here on out.

Puzzled-Intern-7897

Why would you consider AstraZeneca a stable stock, to me Pharma-stocks where very patent reliant and swingy when it comes to new approvals. One wrong study and the stock can tank -80% sometimes. This is at least what I have always thought, happy to learn more. Regardless of this I have a similar approach, but it's all a bit shifted. My safe base is bonds and dividends, German Bunds, French OATs, IG EU-business bonds, and dividends payers such as BAT. My middle sleeve is good Cashflow names with growth such as SAP, and I was thinking about maybe adding Utility company's such as Iberdrola. Last is my bets, right now mostly aiming at stagflation, so commodities or companies that have inflation protection through contracts or other types of pricing power. Siemens Energy for example can tell the costumer what they want, because GE can't repair their turbines. This part of the Portfolio is around 30% when I make my macro bet, that either fails, or gets trimmed or sold, once it pays off. (BAT was a bet against Liberation day, I kept my winnings in it and allocated my original position to a new bet) I am basically creating a stable base, to do macro plays from. So far the bets have been all the movers in my portfolio, the base just pays coupons or dividends.

lOo_ol

Your comment misses the point. No one cares if it's made in Portland or Lisbon. Linux is open source. The idea is to gradually decouple from US arm-wrestling politics. In other words, in some not-so-distant future, if the US forces Microsoft to stop serving the EU if they're ever at war over, I don't know, let's say Greenland, the EU has the source code of Linux and can keep operating regardless of what the White House says.

dobik

Don't know and doesn't care. I think it may get be a strong president for the private sector there to follow as well as a trend within EU. I think lately the German government did something similar to France in ditching MS tools

YeonneGreene

Where Linux is managed is kind of a nothing-burger. If shit hits the fan that hard, France/EU just fork the project, give the middle finger to the US over licensing, and carry on.

Holiday_Sandwich3738

Imagine that China who is notorious for poor workers right and working conditions does the same else where? This is why the Reddit glaze on China I can’t take seriously. The same people screaming for better pay and workers right also glaze China and hate on the EU and U.S. who have not perfect but at least some protections.

Larry_3d

I'm European 🤣 when EU tells US companies to comply with EU regulations does not mean banning

g3tr1ghttt

So you essentially in agreement that it is purely political. And as I mentioned above, the pendulum in the US will swing as it always does, and US will restore relations with their partners. Also, if you have been following the EU regulations, there is a clear indication of the Gov’s milking money from the largest companies under the guise of human rights and personal data protection, while increasing domestic surveillance. Now, I’m not blaming just the EU, you can see the trend pretty much across the globe.

Endogamy

It won’t be a French solution alone, it will be an EU (and possibly UK, Canada, Australia, NZ, Japan) solution. The risk of using US tech is beginning to look a lot like the risk of using Chinese tech. With the long term trends in geopolitics there will absolutely be a “middle powers” tech ecosystem, it’s a matter of national security. If Aleph Alpha was publicly traded I’d be buying.

g3tr1ghttt

You’re comparing whole Europe with the lagging political climate in the part of the US. Back in the day when the US tech was getting started, neither California nor the US was as regulated and taxed as is Europe today. That climate boosted the startups decades ago, and they did not have much global competition, financial risk was negligible, money was free because the US was the world’s financial hub. Trying the same enterprise today in Europe is not feasible due to pre-existing competition, heavy regulations, taxes, a pile of EU Gov’s debt. The US overall is less taxed and regulated and the companies you might have in mind are typically incorporated in Delaware or Wyoming while claiming California as their headquarters, as well as their structure is not as simple as most might think.

Fineous40

🥭 - All these countries can’t count on the US anymore EU - we need to move away from US tech because we can’t count on it anymore. * EU moves away from US tech. Pikacho face

avalon68

I think the US has been greatly underestimating the downturn in opinion towards it of late, especially from within the EU. Y'all need to control your oligarchs over there

FlamboyantPirhanna

There’s also a good possibility some of their new tools will be shared with other EU members.

MaitieS

Yep switching to Linux is very easy for just every day work, but without Azure Dev Ops? Yeah good fucking luck with that EU. Like there is no fucking way EU could ever replace AWS or Azure. Like do we even have something like this?

tobofopo

Apparently it's been in the works for some time, even before Emperor Mango started getting shitty with the EU.

1-Dollar-Doge-Coins

> the entire EU moving away from microsoft and onto linux I realize Linux is open source, and isn't owned by one country, but you know it's heavily supported by US organizations, right? The Linux Foundation is based in California. Linus Torvalds, the lead developer and maintainer of the Linux kernel, lives in Portland, Oregon.

BabyDog88336

Yes- this is EU for “even if you have a better, cheaper product we DGAF because now it is a risk to our sovereignty.”  This is gonna go far beyond MSFT.

Julez_Jay

“They don’t even talk that big a game” Yep. The yappin is a US specialty. Forcing your iPhone to have a usb port is EU action.

chronoistriggered

EU don’t have the balls to do so. They don’t even talk that big a game

I_am_Nerman

What other countries? And what are they working on? Europe is overtaxed and over regulated. That's why capital is not interested. Life as we know it is going to change over the next decade. The US and China are at the forefront of the revolution. The EU is so far behind they'll never catch up. They'll try to tax and regulate what the US builds but at the end of the day, they're cooked.

BeginningEar8070

well the main argument is that they dont have to ban it from the sectors that are treated as risk (even if the word ban is mentioned it doesnt mean the cloud services cant be sued by normies), but EU the arguments i wrote clearly show that without banning explicitly the policies restrict some non EU company presence and sovereign planning is realistic. and this is where i want to see other people constructive arguments and opinions.

BeginningEar8070

As sidenote- Palantir also is slowly having bad sentiment in EU and some governments slowly look to get rid of it- NEC is mostly active in Japan, but with Leonardo and Indra its becoming a great alternative to something like palantir. switzerland terminated palantir contract over data sovereignity risk nhs england - 40 health groups demand concellation - contract review feb 2027, and general scrunity over 670 pund contract with allegations of flawed procurement EU in general - cloud act exposure means palantir data can be compelled by US government- structuraly incompatibile with EU AI Act Palantir will be going strong in USA (funnily trump tweeted the ticker this week)

Larry_3d

EU is not banning any companies, get your ducks in a row.

Different_Career1009

The point people are missing, is that this will likely spread over EU. MS starts losing government contracts in several countries. Then in all countries. I hope you are following the general decoupling strategy of EU from the US since Donald proved to be an enemy. US companies that can be weaponized against the EU are not welcome.

Julez_Jay

Basically any that could find some replacement that's more local. There's a lot of companies in the EU that will actively leave out Microsoft, Amazon or Oracle from new contracts in Hosting, Infrastructure and Cloud in the future and will look to replace them with european competitors.

HoneyBadger552

EU restricts their access to the markets. they have this silly thing called  penision..penisipice..Pension! thats the one. silly thing

Kekopster

A one way death spiral? That’s your words, not mine. The EU will replace American tech, including MSFT, in the same way that China has had to.

FrogLickr

That *is* happening though. It's being executed slowly because that's both the natural speed of geopolitical change, and the smartest way to go about it. For instance, my country Australia has enacted a free trade agreement with the EU, has restarted homegrown manufacturing efforts, and is making deals with China and Japan to ensure the economy keeps running uninterrupted despite this stupid fucking war.  Anti-US sentiment in Aus has never been higher, and while anecdotal, I know numerous people who have cancelled travel plans to the States as a result of Trump's new border policies and fear of illegal persecution (they already got one Aussie, why risk it?) Their concerns may be exaggerated, but the mood in the room is still obvious and not completely unfounded. The US has obliterated all the trust it built up within the space of a year, and the rest of the world is very much beginning to move on. Start learning Mandarin, because Trump's America is handing the world to China.

amiibohunter2015

Look up [Project Nimbus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Nimbus) Its Google, Amazon, the US government and the Israeli Government using A.I. in war against Palestinians, and Iranians. This  a whole military war plan, an illegal war at that where war crimes are committed against Iranians and Palestinians. Iran / Palestine are knocking out the A.I. data center out of survival and other countries should too. Why because if it can happen to them, it can happen to you. Trump already targetted Venezulea, and then Palestine/Iran, he has spoken about targetting Greenland. By the day, Trump is getting more power crazy. So who and what is stopping him from going full global [Blitzkrieg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blitzkrieg)? It echoes exactly Hitlers tactic of [Blitzkrieg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blitzkrieg) and it echoes historical warnings like: [First They Came](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_They_Came) Which goes: >First they came for the Communists >And I did not speak out >Because I was not a Communist >Then they came for the Socialists >And I did not speak out >Because I was not a Socialist >Then they came for the trade unionists >And I did not speak out >Because I was not a trade unionist >Then they came for the Jews >And I did not speak out >Because I was not a Jew >Then they came for me >And there was no one left >To speak out for me The sooner The People snub them out the sooner better quality of The Peoples lives will get, the less lives lost to an unneccessary war, the more jobs will return, employment prospects for human beings will increase, the economy will get better faster, disparity will go down, the UN, EU, and NATO will strengthen, Iran, Palestine, Ukraine will be strengthened via time of healing, by the reinforced NATO, UN, and EU.

Consistent_Panda5891

"Quickly recovers". Lmao. If you think this bear market rally is recovery you need to go to 2000's year. Economy is actually cooked now, and that 500 points pump in pure fake ceasefire negotiations & fake ceasefire only proves how desperate are MMs to get exit liquidity and low price puts of newbies who keep selling them. SaaS stocks got pretty much done because of Anthropic new capabilities (which is not yet in public market). Then because of strait which IS NOT OPENED, there is an incredible amount of 13 days of kerosene left in Europe (airports just issued a warning to EU today). And other locations are in similar position. Apart of sticky oil inflation & gas which will trigger new BoJ rate hike by EoM and destroy all cuts chances, the most concerning is asia helium disruption. 75% of it was coming through hormuz and there is only 60 days of reserves. And without it a decrease in 60% Nvidia chips hardware, or even ram which because shortage will make AI pop

RED-DOT-MAN

FSD approved in Netherlands and may get EU approval, cheaper EV “coming soon”.

LimboLottoLambo

I agree with you both. S&P valuation looks quite inflated ex-tech (defensive looks way more attractive in JP, UK, EU), and with a lot of hopium individual names. But I think the value atm is actually those mega-cap tech with actual cash flow supporting it

exegenes1s

EU is building it's own office alternative.

Qwxzii

it will likely be most if not the entire EU moving away from microsoft and onto linux

2ReluctantlyHappy

It won't be overnight but if France is able to demonstrate a suitable replacement that will just lead to further investment and growth. Eventually all of the EU would move to a European solution if for no reason other than security. US companies are not trusted to be aligned or even neutral with EU goals anymore.

Consistent_Panda5891

Drill baby drill. He can't longer turn a red stock in green with a tweet. Market is so cooked. EU airports has just told UE they have 20 days of kerosene left, then 70% planes can't longer fly

HFB_To_You

Slightly worse. There are no oil cargo shops passing through the Strait, even during this "ceasefire". In parallel more US military presence en route (Bush aircraft carrier & strike group). Typically 20 - 30 day lag time on tankers passing from Strait to EU destination (as a geographic example). We haven't even started to feel the impact / shortages yet.

FlyConfident6622

Or just based in the EU lol

Happy-n-Healthy

Did PLTR lose some EU and Nato contracts? What's the deal?

Olorin_1990

MSFT has lost nearly all it’s good will with users, EU countries are purging Windows and Office, which means Cloud and Enterprise services take a hit as well. So… no I don’t think MSFT is in a good place right now

Knarre30

Oil shortage seems to be massive bull signal. IEA calls that EU could run out of Kerosene and petrol. But i guess that doesnt matter in this market. This shit will run till it collapses.

ShittyUsernane1222

\>US-EU critical minerals deal negotiations beginning \>US has threatened greenland before EU can learn it the easy way that negotiating with 🥭 is no better than talking to a lake full of piranhas, you look stupid and you might lose an hand. EU can learn it the hard way via losing influence over greenland, canada to an US invasion.

daedalus_dance

>The EU and the US are near a critical minerals deal to combat Chinese control Ameripoors looking like that one cousin who insults you at the wedding then needs a lift home at the wake.

throwaway9gk0k4k569

I work in tech. The problem is that the Google FUD last year was mostly untrue. Microsoft does have problems. Azure really does suck and is a total joke among security people for repeatedly having major disaster security problems. Everyone hates Windows 11. Locking out EU lawyers cloud accounts at the request of the USA may not have been a smart move either. But my favorite top Microsoft story of the last couple of years just happened last year and wasn't really a hot topic. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/microsoft-stop-using-engineers-china-tech-support-us-military-hegseth-orders-2025-07-18/ This is treason. Literally textbook treason. Like executions. This was is a major major extreme scandal, but we have Trump so it's a mild yawn.

Intrepid_Result8223

Not only the EU. China has not forgotten the trade wars, trust me. And plenty of middle east countries that dislike US. Oh and Canada, rememeber Canada? What about Mexico? Venezuela? The list is getting longer.

daedalus_dance

Okay but what the fuck did he think would happen with his specific administrations foreign policy? The problem was never weaponisation of the dollar it was that whilst the US / EU agreed on it everyone else had to play ball to trade with both. Now you've got record issuances of Euro and Yuan bonds, and a flight to gold, and the US did nothing to suppress Cryptos illegal money printing. Gold up, dollar down has been a trade last 18 months and its still in the green despite the oil shock.

Rednavoguh

I'm running Linux and for years the narrative has been that this could replace windows. I don't see that happening anytime soon honestly. There is a risk of the EU moving toward local tech though. Maybe they will keep using windows on the user side but there's no way they will keep using Azure/AWS/Gcloud to store their data. This might have some impact.

kra73ace

EU has zero sovereignty in tech. I'm also bag holding SAP, so European software hasn't been spared. It was cut from close to 300 to below 150.

interstellara_

brother i do not know why you thought this was a good idea then except vibes??? lmao. i will say, i think people think differently about charging when they live in apartment buildings with not enough chargers (I did this before, in the bay area) vs when they can charge freely at home but even then, i wouldn't have invested because it's niche. i think it's a better business model in the EU and i would invest there.

michahell

well, yes, orange fail president is making sovereign data and cloud totally a thing in the EU, so that will count towards loss of subscriptions at least there. Actually, I think this is happening worldwide

BaguetteInMyPant

> I'm planning to publish lists of suggested ETFs for US and EU-based investors on my website soon Waiting.

Loud-Butterfly3426

You're overcomplicating the matter. China (and Russia) are concerned about the massive damage to the world economy and the possibility the conflict further escalates. So it wants peace and, probably, the US military pushed back from Iran's border. The UK and EU know they can squawk and nobody will listen. Meaningless words by US vassals.

Daxaconda

No love for IBRX on this list? Anktiva is still up for FDA approval and has already been approved in EU

scrllock

Fast food is (or was) really cheap and is extremely unhealthy. For many people it's the easiest option for a lot of their meals. When you're out of the US you notice just how much better food is, even fast food is much higher quality at least in EU/Asia.

Sorry-Usual6906

Hussain Abdul-Hussain • @hahussain X.com Sorry Macron, Sanchez, NYT, EU and half of US Congress, Lebanon is a sovereign state, will negotiate directly with Israel an end to their war, should not be under the US-Iran ceasefire. Iran should never have a say over Lebanon, in war or in peace.

stickman07738

I was in BLNK during the OTC days until NASDAQ listed. I sold at $25 after reading a DOT report that 80% of the people will charge at home and drive less than 120 miles per day. I did a simple back of the envelop calculation based on the number of gasoline stations servicing US and EU and assumed 8-10 charging stations per location and 50-60% of the people will charge at home. The numbers did not add up to all the glorious marketing projections. Thus, I got out. Wish I sold early but still a nice profit. I have now been reading that hotels, condos and apartments buildings are installing charge stations. Hilton just announced a deal with TSLA to install charging stations. In addition, the major oil companies are now entering the field and TSLA is increasingly sharing its network.

Club96shhh

It needs to be available over the counter. Then this will truly explode. Would I try it out if I could just pull it off the shelf? Absolutely. But I am not interested in trying to find a doc to prescribe this to me even though I don't "need" it for health reasons. I am in the EU btw. Might be more lax in the US. I have a feeling there are many like me that would love to lose a few but aren't unhealthy enough to get it the proper way.

NextLevelInvesting

Which ETFs do you want? :-) There are multiple providers of ETFs tracking each of the 15 indices, and the availability for each investor depend on the rules of the country they live in and the brokerage account. I'm planning to publish lists of suggested ETFs for US and EU-based investors on my website soon (they will not have access to the same ETFs by law).

PWCIV

Right but this is only possible in a tax advantages account like roth ira. Not possible in the EU really

daedalus_dance

I know a number of Jewish people who don't support what Israel is doing, including some who live in Israel. They think its all Bibi and that he's making a historical mistake by losing the support of the other main US party, half of the governing one, and the EU, all in one go.

oatmeal-claypole

Everyone wanted a ceasefire, they just rushed to get it over the line without hashing key details. The EU needs to sanction israel to get them to back off.

thealex7r

I mean they sold it their hold in US, and bought in EU. Seems like withdrawal for me. At least my bank doesn't want to call me getting my money to other bank as "swap". Swap it is if they buy back new gold in US. They did not. So dollar got south.

Overall-Rush-8853

The US is adopting green energy, albeit slower than the EU, and we produce more crude than we export. The US should be fine. China will have issues.

ga643953

EU just doesn't have tech, innovation, and regulated environment that draw capital and entrepreneurs the way the US does. Money shifts around when there're geopolitical conflicts but when the dust settles, money flows back to the US not because it's less risky, but because you can't find companies coming up with tech that can spearhead the next industrial revolution elsewhere, hence the higher multiple.

daedalus_dance

You know who else hates europe? The Israeli far-right over west bank settlements sanctions. 🥭Been doing their work all this time and that's why this ceasefire will eventually fail and oil is going back up. It may even be worse now because he's barking up the wrong tree again with the US's largest trading partner (the EU, btw).

Spinoza42

I'm not so sure. Apparently China told Pakistan to tell Iran to take the ceasefire. China would apparently guarantee that Israel and the US would hold to the ceasefire. But clearly that didn't happen. China is facing this moment in a really unusual way compared to other powers: very few public statements, working through intermediaries. The EU and UK are today very vocal about the absolute need for Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire, but where is China? I think there is a lack of clarity of the Chinese position, it seems as if possibly Beijing doesn't really mind if this conflict escalates as long as they can keep their hands clean longer than most.

imrickjamesbioch

Fun fact, France liquidated and completely pull out all its gold from the federal reserve. Just waiting for Japan to start selling off their US treasury bonds to offset their soon to be recession caused by the US starting an illegal war for Israel. As well as EU and UK since the US is no longer a reliable ally to anyone in the world except to Russia / Israel and will be facing hardships due to SoH being closed again, I guess. So one glorious green day based on fake news doesn’t mean the bears are in hibernation for the spring/summer. A lot of investors weren’t around for the 2000’s when there was the dot com bubble, 2 wars, a finical crisis, and to boot the fake Christian party gave the largest tax cut in history at the time. Sound familiar? Im not saying shits gonna get that bad (I hope), but certainly all signs point towards that direction cuz you have a fake Christian war criminal pedo in the white house who’s gone bankrupt 6x after his daddy gave him $400 mil in the 90’s and you really can’t rely on any economic data coming out from the Pedo-47 admin.

Budget-Ocelots

This is a global problem, and I am surprised that EU, Asia, ME, India, US haven’t made a pact to agree to nuke Iran from all sides, and agree that it isn’t a war crime to do so. This will destroy a future threat due to one civilization.

wyldstallionesquire

47% renewable in the EU vs 25% in the US

lizardhistorian

Attacking Iran harms Russia. France made a deal with Iran, which is making a deal with Russia. Putin invaded under Obama - who did nothing - and Biden. The US is still sending billions to Ukraine. The EU still isn't doing shit.

kevphilly36

Buy, oils going to 120. This isn’t close to over. Iran let 12 ships thru today and is charging a ‘toll’. Israel wasn’t happy with the cease fire, Iran’s ‘10 point plan’ is a non starter despite what administration says. The US is under massive pressure from Gulf states, Europe, to get the strait reopened. Gulf states are ready to join the fight and I’d imagine eventually US will get military support from a couple EU nations. It’s going to be a battle for the strait. I just can’t see any other conclusion to this conflict. We can’t just walk away. Should have just left it alone in the first place.

el_cid_viscoso

The world's also realizing that the USA isn't exactly the worthiest arbiter of global hegemony, and the petrodollar's days are numbered if Iran continues to control the Strait. I don't disagree that the USA is a savage pack of bloodthirsty crybullies (I should know, I'm an American). Iran is neither Iraq nor Afghanistan, and the USA doesn't have nearly the international support it had at the end of the Cold War, nor is its military hardware up to the task of dealing with drone swarms. The USA could flatten Iran, but it will be so costly it makes the GWoT look frugal by comparison. The USA flattens Iran, and the EU and Gulf states pull all their money out of our markets and start paying for oil in yuan. There goes American hegemony. Lots of people will die in that process. Trump is in obvious cognitive decline and isn't in charge. His key-jinglers are. He's just a figurehead now, propped up by a medical team. And minimal collateral damage my ass. Tell that to the 150 dead schoolgirls. The USA is a collapsing empire, and this is its death throes.

clockwork5ive

Even if they did, which they won’t, the combined market pressure of the EU is akin to a fart in the wind.

Ok-Session6679

Oil will pump in 2 hours when EU wakes up

trade_thriving

oh shit you're right, that's actually way worse lol. I hadn't thought about that angle. so you're basically getting screwed twice - first the futures tank it overnight, then your just sitting there watching your EU ETF get obliterated when the market opens. at least with regular stocks I can see the damage in real time and panic sell like a true ape 💀 I've got a buddy who tried playing EU stuff and he literally gave up after a week. said it was too much guessing game mixed with jet lag.

moldyjellybean

https://www.reddit.com/r/technology/comments/1mwsg0q/microsoft_says_us_law_takes_precedence_over/ https://www.reddit.com/r/aws/comments/1m9h22t/microsoft_admits_it_cannot_guarantee_data/ Think EU, AUS and Asia are going a different route now that data on an EU server will just be given with no warrant. So they are getting ready to move things off MSFT and AMZN cloud services. It starts as a trickle and then soon you'll see the bottom line

Draco_xGreek

1. Start war 2. See. If our NATO allies will step up and help US 3. No ok not really our war 4. Let Iran charge tax on oil 5. countries who purchase oil that primarily passes through the straight will start purchasing from us or our allies. We’ve already seen it happening. 2026 US is averaging 7 million barrels of oil exported per day and a majority of that is to EU countries. With Iran driving the price of their own oil up more people will come to US, Mexico, Canada for oil.

RichIndependence8930

Yeah, I agree. I think an EU model is much better but even that has flaws. But that will never happen here until it is forced to happen.

Bigcheese665

Agreed. Im betting Tri-polar US, China, EU/EF

Yos13

Only 50??? He has threatened EU and China with over 100%…

Competitive_Flan_330

It makes sense if you factor in the fact that there's no repercussions for massive fraud. I stopped trusting the US market a while ago. Chinese EV companies, groceries, and EU military companies all the way baby. At least I can trust the numbers on those markets.

Soossaaaa

EU can't afford to dump the treasuries

Thin-Competition3018

Trump, we have a two week cease fire and I have no idea what is going to happen with the strait. Its up to EU. Iran: Hold up the strait. Cue laughter.....

hnglmkrnglbrry

More like 3 step backwards, 10 steps backward. We had the JCPOA. Iran wasn't going to get nuclear weapons. 90% of the sanctions still remained while they had ballistic weapons. Russia, EU, China, UK, Iran, and US were all in on this agreement. But Israel wasn't and Obama is Black so it had to go.

h1zchan

Israel can't survive without strategic depth, otherwise it's always one war away from ceasing to exist. The only way Israel can have strategic depth is by annexing parts of Lebanon and Syria which means Hezbollah which is supported by Iran is in the way. This means Israel can't survive without eliminating Iran. Iran can't survive when Israel is forever trying to break Iran apart through covert actions. To counter Mossad covert ops, Iran has to keep propping up proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen to keep Mossad busy. The US can't survive without the petrodollar being the sole reserve currency of the world. At 130% debt-to-GDP ratio, the financial system immediately implodes if the debt owed to foreign countries can't be inflated away through money printing. To maintain this status quo, the US must knock out anyone who dares to trade crude oil in currencies other than the US$. Saddam and Gaddafi who tried to sell oil in Euro and gold are long dead, but Iran and Russia are now selling oil in CNY. This means the US can't survive without regime-changing Iran and Russia. The EU can't survive without energy security. The only way to get long term energy security is if Russia somehow disintegrates and the energy-rich parts of Russia were integrated into the EU. In other words, the EU can't survive if Russia doesn't disintegrate. Russia can't survive when the US and the EU are forever trying to force it to disintegrate through proxy wars and psyops. It has to knock out Ukraine which it sees as the forward operating base of all the western regime change campaigns against Russia. China can't survive without energy security which means it cannot allow Iran and Russia to be regime-changed by the US. We're at the endgame stage of the global competition now. All roads lead to WWIII. Whatever ceasefire deals you see is a just mid game break, because the only way the war really ends is when half of the players cease to exist on the world map.

Specialist_Ant116

The world is a big fkng messy hoax. As soon as you understand that there are no good guys and they are all (mostly) in the same team, you stop paying attention to the background noise (news). You can see right through them, follow the money trail, follow their hypocrisy, see who makes profit on misfortune (Blackrock/Vanguard), see who's a financial partner with who ( Qatar/USA/EU/UK) , then see who's sponsoring terrorists like Al Qaeda, The Taliban Hamas. You might find the same names. It's a big monopoly game, the world is rotten and twisted beyond your belief, humanity has great potential, but the human race is a... I'd say a cancer

Ill-Mousse-3817

No. I think two separate things are happening. The main thing is that the US wants out badly. The Gulf countries invest all their money in the US for protection, not to hear pathetic excuses. The US NEEDS to fix this ASAP. Or China will. The other thing that is happening is that the US is indeed pissed off by the behavior of the Europe (and in much minor measure Asia) "fence sitting". We may discuss whether Europe is right or wrong, but it is irrelevant. The US uses the temporary stalemate to at least pressure the EU and the other NATO allies into military action. This is just a consolation prize. We'll see if the ceasefire holds. Iran also wants out BADLY. However they want to inflict maximum pain to the US, hoping that this will lower the odds of future attacks.

snesk0008

Not defending Trump, huge mistake to start this war. Here's how it 'ends' with both sides 'happy' 1. Reparations - Trump is going to lift sanctions and will provide 'aid' through the remnants of USAID. This will be money and food, which Iran needs to reduce water usage for crops which has caused an almost total collapse of their water system. Trump will also lift some sanctions (Venezuela style). 2. Uranium - The US will acknowledge Iran's right to enrich, to a non-nuclear standard, basically the previous deal Obama negotiated. IAEA will monitor  3. Control of Strait - US will acknowledge that the Strait is "managed" by Iran and Oman commission but can't charge tolls.  What does the US get: 1. Iran will conduct oil sales in USD. Iran DGAF about the Yuan and was using USD previously.  2. Iran won't be allowed to sell weapons to 'terrorists' basically ending Iran's proxies. Iran knows it's proxies deterrent failed anyway, and they need to rebuild the Iran military before support regional partners anyway (although they may continue to arm houthis to control the red sea). 3. Iran, US, GCC and Israel stop hostilities. Israel knew they couldn't topple Iran, as did the US, but if they can turn Iran from hostile to distrustful that's a big win for Israel in particular. This is the crown jewel for the US & Israel and is part of the US strategy of flipping middle powers from China to US. Cuba, Venezuela and Iran are all aligned against the US and therefore would align with China. Plus it reinforces petrodollar dominance. If the US gets this, they functionally win. Now will Iran be a friendly? No. But they effective neuter Iran, force the GCC to oblige the US lest they restart hostilities and shore up power through the USD.  Ultimately the US fucked up here. But the US strategy is genuinely to open simmering conflicts to expand power. It's a bad strategy in the long term, because the US is showing itself to be a bully rather than a reliable partner. It's forcing allies and enemies to re-arm and will ultimately lead to a multi-polar order as the US lead collation fades as allies get fed up with bending the knee. Each conflict also leaves the US massively exposed for other corners of the globe to take advantage of the distraction. Next up Cuba. A much weaker power with almost no leverage. The US showed its quite willing to bomb the shit out of any country and leaders that don't go along with its plans, so you can bet that this one will go alot smoother. Trump has wounds to lick, but they will use this show of force against Iran to scare Cuba into heavy concessions.  After Cuba, we'll have a break for the mid-terms but then we have 2 years of Trump uninhibited. He's going to get something from Canada, Greenland or Europe that they don't want to give up, he wants that 51st state and you better believe he's going to find a lever in there to take a big step in that direction. My guess, Canada as they aren't part of the EU. Probably removal of their tariffs.

TraditionalAd8415

I do think a lot of people questioned America's ability and its willingness. Iran chanted death to America every day, the Maduro taunted the US to "get him", because they calculated the US leadership would not dare to attack them. The willingness to use the weapons and endure the pain is as much part of the calculations and is very much in doubt after Iraq. Obama etc. largely banked on civility, international laws, and "the power of persuasion" to push other countries to do what they want, and Trump obviously believed in raw power. So far, I don't think he was disappointed. To make sure we don't live in a bubble and just spin events to fit a narrative, sometimes it is beneficial to force yourself to make a prediction that is falsifiable. Before today's ceasefire, did you predict Iran would allow the passage of ships even temporarily, or did you predict, as most on Reddit do, that there was going to be a long closure of the strait? I did and I made some money from that prediction. You can also make a prediction today, will the strait be closed after 2 weeks, or will it stay open. My belief is the starit will remain open and Iran's nonsensical demands will mostly not be met. The US will not pay reparation, and will not abandon the bases in the Middle East. The best they can do is some empty promise to never attack again. As for the tolls, I believe it won't be sustainable, or better yet, Donald Trump would actually get to share part of the tolls collected, if Iran is to actually receive tolls, at the expense of the EU, Japan etc. as always. Do you wanna right now say whether you believe will happen in 2 weeks,rather than somehow spin it to mean another "Trump lose "narrative after the events have happened? The wonder of falsifiable prediction is that it clears minds and counters the tendency of human beings to spin whatever events to suit a preexisting bias. I watched before Trump's election, every pundit in the media saying how this is a scandal, that is a gaffe, to try to paint him as stupid and crazy, yet only to see him beating supposedly sophisticated political operatives like Hilary and Harris. If your judgment about the world is accurate, you should be able to make reasonable predictions with more than 50 percent accuracy. And of course, you should also be able to turn it into financial advantages rather than Reddit karma. So, care to predict the future?

DeezCodeNutz

EU algos should be fun to watch soon. 😂

MirthandMystery

Wouldn't surprise me to see some overlap given Predictit was doing the same the and was basically first but had other academic partners in the Us including MIT. I watched it developed and took part in making a few small bets to see how it worked. You could see how it could be used to foment sentiment, skew opinions and make bettors real money if they knew how to manipulate users and data they needs to make bets. Later a few made big money betting on Trump winning in 2016, a similar shock to the Brexit vote where in both cases, Cambridge Analytica and the Mercers gave inside info to a small number of people. In the case of Brexit 'Leave EU' in the UK some used it to their advantage betting on the £ currency drop since they had better data how many were actually for voting for Leave versus falsely fed info from Nigel Farage openly saying in the late stages oh it looks like we lost and Remain will win, though he too was in on it. They intentionally held back their data and wickedly celebrated as the shocked majority of average people ended up upset, realizing what just happened and even being asked the question initially they'd been duped.

DeezCodeNutz

EU algos @ 1AM EDT

TraditionalAd8415

Is there a scenario, in your imagination, where Iran would be seen as "losing" other than just outright begging on Twitter? I imagine if they even did that, it would still be seen as some cunning plan to manipulate Trump or something. I am going to guess you decided the US "lost" before any news developments happened. The way I see it, Iran capitulated under duress. Their leverage is the Strait of Hormuz, and they allowed the passage of ships, which would stabilize the market and dampen the fear of stagflation, not because they got anything other than the US's promise not to attack. Of course, it was never a match between equals. The US had the overwhelming power, and Iran couldn't even hurt the US without hurting other countries that had no connections to the conflict. Even in a scenario where they controlled the strait indefinitely, the EU, Japan and Korea would be hurt much more than the US, which is a net oil exporter. The United States, in the process, demonstrated its unquestionable military superiority, especially in the daring rescue operation of the missing crew. Unlike Russia, which was exposed as a paper tiger, the reputation of the US military was largely intact. Of course, you could say this is not a good trade for the money spent, and maybe the US didn't really get anything positive out of it, but the result of the war is quite unambiguous: the US bombed the shit out of Iran, killed its leadership, and the Iran had no choice but to capitulate to open the Strait of Hormuz. The premise of Donald Trump's foreign policy philosophy is that the US was constrained by niceties and he was more willing to deal with countries through raw power, which is why he largely avoided antagonizing those he considered strong, like Russia and China, and dealt contemptuously with Europe and Iran, and Venezuela. At this moment, his thesis has not been disproved. Though sometimes the cost benefit analysis is hard to calculate without hindsight. Russia overestimated its strength and was now paying a price for this miscalculation. But I don't think we are yet for the US. Donald Trump's "bullying", so to speak, is largely successful. EU dared not to fight back against his tarrif wars, Venezeula and Iran largely capitulated even after heavy beating and didn't mount a serious attack on the US. On the grand scheme of things, so far at least, I don't think Donald Trump has seen negative consequences from his very dark, very cynical view of power relationships.

NightOfTheLivingHam

except look at what vance has been doing over in europe. He's been actively involved with undermining the EU in favor of Russia. The chain of succession is not much better, if not worse. Vance has years ahead of him.

bigorangemachine

My thoughts... * This is not a message from Iran * Pakistan bought a lot of Trump Coin * Iran has repeated they have no clue who he is talking to * Iran has threatened to go weapons free if Trump followed through on his threats * Mid-April is the beginning of the new moon which would be ideal for a night mission to capture Kharg Island * Trump has intentionally been delaying to get boots on the ground somewhere * Without capturing ground Trump doesn't have leverage eventually they'll run out of bombs * Losing access to EU airspace makes the strikes less effective and stretches resources especially considering the loss of key airframes (AWACS/Re-Fuelers) * I'm inclined to not believe Trump unless we actually hear about Aircraft Carriers out of the Gulf