EU

Quick_Bet5660

I learned the UK and EU did away with the requirement in 2013 and it didn’t really change anything. Companies continued to report quarterly. I don’t think this is a major deal

LeeS121

I would fricken love to see the EU and all stick to their guns…! Arrogant SOB struts in puffing his chest out saying “we got this…!” Allies are caught totally off guard as the U.S. goes and whacks a hornets nest and can’t understand why the Iranian government wouldn’t bow to his whim… after chastising the allies for over a year he wonders why none of them will come out and play in the sand! Unfortunately, we will lose service personnel over Trumps irrational behavior and jeopardizing the world at large… he deserves everything he has coming… EVERY STINKING BIT OF IT!!!

Gom_KBull

Wait, did he start all this bullshit because the EU didnt give him Greenland? That's petty as hell.

conikwa

$CING likely to spike today (or tomorrow) and once again in ~2 months. So very short term. They received Notice of Allowance from US patent office today, not yet PRd by the company. When they got granted the same for EU last year it spiked from 5x. Link: https://data.uspto.gov/patent-file-wrapper/search/details/18560039/documents End of may they have the PDUFA scheduled for their new drug. Likely major catalyst. 12M shares outstanding, no options shenanigans available but strong potential

garden_speech

Only redditors can complain nonstop for a decade about how companies focus on short term quarterly profits and then suddenly decide that going to semiannual reporting, standard in the EU, is a bad thing

Careful_Response4694

In 1 month we're gonna see speculators fleeced on near term oil futures because the tanker shortage will not reach the US and EU yet and emergency releases+russia sanctions temporary lift will cause oversupply of oil.

icydragon_12

Meh I've been an analyst at a global wallstreet firm. In the EU and UK, quarterly reporting is technically not mandatory. Companies that actually want investors still do it though. Basically.. It'll be optional. But not really, if you want investors, because investors like quarterly updates: they wanna know how things are going with their money.

toxicomano

Thank you. I legit thought I was in WSB with all the bird brained comments at the top claiming capital will leave the US because of this. To where? The EU, which stopped requiring quarterly reporting over a decade ago?

Afraid_College8493

You're overestimating the dissatisfaction of the Gulf states with the war, and the benefits to the US of a strong dollar. No other bonds, including those of the EU, have the safety, liquidity and depth of US bonds. However, countries like China that are gradually reducing their US bond holdings (in spite of what I mentioned above) are actually doing the US a favor. We need to cut our deficit - not grow it because foreigners throw money at it.

sin94

It might as well be worth exploring the prediction market and, eventually, online casinos. In fact, even websites or games with loot boxes often have more transparent disclosures. People should start investigating overseas operations that are subject to some regulatory frameworks. Certain EU countries, for instance, have implemented age limits for social media usage.

cantsleepwithoutfan

At this point waiting for him to tweet that Iran and USA have teamed up to take on the EU menace, if it meant oil prices go lower for a minute or two.

ghendler

Why though. The EU eliminated quarterly reporting and a lot of jurisdictions only require mandatory semi annual reporting. The SEC‘s proposal is going to be for semi annual reporting so it should align with other jurisdictions. I do believe quarterly reporting is best for investors, but the world seems to be moving away from that. Maybe when we have another financial crisis that will change.

Adventurous_Storm356

The problem is the talent and capital mobility - across the EU but also globally. If you're making yourself attractive for the average to poor person, that's whom you're going to attract and retain. While the top performers go to countries where they can become wealthy. We're already seeing massive brain drain in Europe, with a lot of entrepreneurs going to the US or Dubai or Singapore. And if your top earners leave, who is going to pick up the bill for all the low earners? That's right - the middle class, which in many Western European countries is being squeezed to death. I'm from the Netherlands myself, and while I love Europe for many reasons, our idealism is financed by a fairly small percentage of the population, and it's not sustainable forever.

BendDelicious9089

Except it's going to pass and money will continue to flow into the US because it's the US. And next year you will be proven very wrong. When EU switched to semi, no impact to investment or the flow of capital. The same will happen to the US. A multitude of factors are why investors prefer the US, and a switch to semi is not going to mitigate those other, far more important factors.

16semesters

I don't think my opinion of the Chinese Communist Party effects companies in that country ability to make money. Nor do I think that the US at large like or dislike of the CCP has a large effect. [China has a very poor unfavorability ranking in the US](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2025/04/17/us-views-of-china-and-xi/) But their companies still make tons of money in the US. Why is this? It's because money is the only thing that matters here. And the EU is still importing from the US at a record clip regardless of public perception. The stats do not life and the money does not care about redditors opinions. You're making the opposite point you think you're making.

vasquca1

Its going to be interesting if this sentiment changes as oil and gas prices start to increase in cost across the EU, GB and US. Here in USA you already know mfers are ready for full on war mode if prices stay high.

Sensitive-Talk9616

FYI semiannual reporting us standard in EU, China, UK, Australia, and many other places. So with this US would go more in line with most other big markets.

16semesters

This sub has thrown economics and discussion of stocks out of the window to discuss lame political opinions. Someone saying "Europe is disappointed" means nothing when imports from the USA into the EU are at an all time high. You guys will never make money in the stock market if you turn everything into a weirdo online popularity contest. Lest you think I'm supporting Trump, I have literally never voted for him and voted for Clinton-Biden-Harris in that order. Just I'm here for stock talk based on fundamentals not here for 17 year old redditors political takes.

BendDelicious9089

What on earth are people blabbering about as if it's the end of the world? EU is semiannual, Australia is, Singapore is (for the most part) By god, it's really just Canada and the US. This is going to be better for asset managers who can stop chasing quarterly reporting earnings.

finance-mcp-001

semi-annual reporting. a lot of other countries/regions do this to combat short-termism (I'm not taking a stance), including Japan, the UK, the EU.

znite

To help the US secure Hurmuz, get Trump to sign something saying NATO is secure, they'll support Ukraine til they win, Iceland is off the table and Denmark/EU ownership back on the table, all global tariffs rescinded, and US 100% in on WHO and Paris agreement, then we have a deal. 

znite

To help the US secure Hurmuz, get Trump to sign something saying NATO is secure, they'll support Ukraine til they win, Iceland is off the table and Denmark/EU ownership back on the table, all global tariffs rescinded, and US 100% in on WHO and Paris agreement, then we have a deal. 

znite

To help the US secure Hurmuz, get Trump to sign something saying NATO is secure, they'll support Ukraine til they win, Iceland is off the table and Denmark/EU ownership back on the table, all global tariffs rescinded, and US 100% in on WHO and Paris agreement, then we have a deal. 

ClaytonRook

Real question: why is the market up? Aside from EU and Japan releasing oil reserves this is going to dump back down right?

AnalytickAi

The Nebius thesis is the most interesting one here — infrastructure layer first, then enterprise AI operationalization is exactly the playbook that tends to win in platform shifts. The Yandex DNA is either a massive edge or a geopolitical overhang depending on how the next 18 months play out. What's your current thinking on the Russia/EU exposure risk given the war context?

_Doomer_Wojack_

Hot off the presser! EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas says Europe won't join attacks on Iran and has no plans to expand its naval mission in the Strait of Hormuz, while warning Israel's actions in Lebanon are making things worse.

WSB-mods-are-

EU is going to monitor the fuck outta this situation

Vanillas_Guy

I dont think they *want* to, but as we've seen since trump got in, the EU is very dependent on america economically. They didn't develop their own digital infrastructure so most of the software and cloud computing in Europe is america based. They didn't protect their own manufacturing sector, so American brands have penetrated their market. They didn't invest aggressively enough in home grown renewable energy, so they had to switch to american energy suppliers after breaking diplomatic ties with Russia and they're still buying some Russian anyway.  To the point where Putin even said he might ban even *that* https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-suggests-russia-could-stop-supplying-gas-european-markets-now-2026-03-04/ I am less frustrated these days because I've been paying more attention to what leaders *do* than what they say. It is in the financial and political interest of EU leaders to prevent an energy price crisis. They want to simultaneously look like they're opposing trump and the Russians while continuing to remain economically dependent on them and it just isn't going to work. For example, next year there will be an election in France. Macron's party will need to explain what he's done to actually stand up to america and russia while keeping costs down for the french public. He's sending French military personnel to try and keep goods flowing through the strait of hormuz because if this can't happen, prices will keep going up and he will be in hot water politically at home. The EU HAS to become digitally independent, and it has to become less dependent on petroleum. Its not just an environmental issue, its a matter of national security. They could completely sit this one out and actually be able to push back if they were less dependent on america but they can't so whether they like it or not theyll have to get dragged into this and on top of that, theyll have to pay the same americans theyre supposedly standing up to, to reload on any materiel that they lose trying to force the strait of hormuz open.

2020isgreat

EU'S KALLAS SAYS WE DISCUSSED OPTIONS TO BETTER PROTECT SHIPPING IN THE REGION[](https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2033585580525887727)

rollinhating

Trump gonna bash NATO/EU for not helping in middle east probobly.. Market gonna fall, then he will say Oil will be 30 USD market will rally probobly

Happy-Champion1661

SPY still flat for EU on the 5months, cuz USD recovered a bit literally cannot escape this stupid theta range even if $ SPY seems to move unreal

Complex-Video-2202

How long can EU and Japan resist to not spread the cheeks for daddy and send all they have in the ghey of hormuz. Max one day or longer?

OrdinaryMix4013

EU allies to taco: are you fucking retarded?

Vanillas_Guy

They will run out of missiles and drones. We don't know how many they have, and EU states are willing to get involved. An invasion won't need to happen if there are no more missiles left. The problem is that the american missiles and drones Israel, the EU and america itself are using are extremely expensive and their manufacturing capacity is inferior to that of China. China is the real winner here because this buys them time to continue investing in their defense sector. This is also giving them valuable data on how effective the weapons they sold iran actually are and how they can improve them. Meanwhile the American tax payer will have to foot the bill for the millions of dollars spent on weapons not only for america to reload on its supply, but also for israel too. If democrats break from their tradition of unlimited support to israel and unlimited spending on the military, this will force Republicans and trump to have to make the case for why voters tax money should go to the weapons for Israel(which has become increasingly hated by the public) and money for the military(which is being sent to kill for israel and giving americans nothing in return other than higher gas prices). But thats a big IF on democrats which are despised by their own voters because they consistently put their own financial interests ahead of the interests of the people who actually vote for them to the point where many of them are just staying home because they feel its pointless to vote for someone who will just immediately ignore the base if they win.

twitterfluechtling

We do have EVs competing with combustion cars, and higher gasoline prices should shift the demand to EVs. Even current generations EVs are suitable for most daily needs. Solar panels are already being mass produced, delivering electricity cheaper per kW than most other options, and the current energy prices should make them even more competitive. (Yes, I'm aware electricity does not directly compete with oil and LNG. But heat-pumps and EVs are already commercially viable and can replace oil/LNG-based equipment.) Governments especially in the EU should be highly motivated to reduce their dependency on oil and to invest in the required infrastructure to support the economy. I for one feel highly encouraged to extend my pv installment to add storage, get it black start ready and install a charging station in front of my house, based on current technology.

Moepenmoes

Last couple of hours: Pretty much all EU countries said "Nah thx gl tho" to 🥭's demand for EU countries to join the war And the market is green?

akunisg

Gonna state the obvious, don't get mad EU men: EU is a bureaucratic joke right now. Weak leader. Weak men. America doesn't need the whore moose oil and it is trying to keep the commerce going and EU won't help. I guess good times do produce weak men. Sad that Now the time is up A strong leader would send in help just for training the navy with some real action. Gain real data. Bureaucrats From the Belgian to the Balkan , from Germany to England, generations of weak men and women deep in the mire of dichotomy of nazism and modern leftism, wasting their lives away. Ancient Greeks and the Romans all valued valor, strength as well as wisdom, boasting the military excellence to be integral part of civil experience. Plato stated explicitly democratic capitalism without honor and wisdom is doomed to fail, ranking it below Timocracy and Aristocracy. And who is carrying their mantle now ? Is there anything else left to take pride in on this cultural wasteland?

lemuever17

EU wouldn't be in this mess if some orange man had some sense in his mind.

akunisg

EU is a bureaucratic joke right now. America doesn't need the whore moose oil and it is trying to keep the commerce going and EU won't help. A strong leader would send in help just for training the navy with some real action. Greeks and the Romans all valued valor, strength as well as wisdom, boasting the military excellence to be integral part of civil experience And who is carrying their mantle now ?

emotionallyFreeware

In many EU and Asian countries you are not even allowed to criticise the decision of court. The judges can book you for it.

KittyLover-7

No leader is going to commit political suicide and get involved in this shit show Mango will go on a rant and start alienating allies even more, 50% tariffs on EU and UK incoming Withdrawal from nato threats too

Charming_Raccoon4361

NBIS is the only EU one with multiple locations

TomatoSpecialist6879

Not just UK, [Italy and France are openly talking to Iran](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-italy-open-talks-with-iran-securing-safe-hormuz-passage-ft-reports-2026-03-13/) and ignored US calls to form a coalition lmao. China has been sailing through the strait like nothing happened, meanwhile our EU allies are open to trading in yuan just like Iran asked. US is in such a fucked position, and we're even more fucked because we're Americans(well I am Idk if you are).

Accurate_Pay_2242


Locus_In_Quo

* deal * no deal * China navy * EU misc mixed mutts navy * US navy [ about 600 km away from the action, at a safe location] * Pete Hogsbreath paddling a keg across the strait of Hormuz like a madman to open it up with live grenade in hand. Which likely bs scenario will keep the market afloat on Monday ?

MrYOLOMcSwagMeister

Different types of oil from each field so it's a lot more complicated. USA both imports and exports, Venezuelan oil is difficult and their infrastructure needs upgrades (which takes years). So USA will be hit too (not as hard as EU of Asia)

deltaface

If the guy believes the strait is open because Trump and Hegseth said so, they went crying back to EU for help then it's clearly not open. Bootlicker is an understatement.

spac420

EU will either have to accept Putin oil and gas, or help escort. All of Europe is trapped. no options.

tofumonsterz

The entire EU is a joke theres no way lol

AF2005

He’s talked shit about NATO and the EU for almost 10 years now. What an embarrassment he is

thousandfoldthought

They might not. But they're using our military to make Greater Israel. When they get that we will be so overextended they'll ditch us and re-partner with Russia, begin exerting pressure on EU. Still might not go their way but this is what's happening. Think about everyrhing back to 2015, look at it through this lens it's obvious. Epstein files are forcing their hand BEFORE the midterms and trump's sloppinness might actually be the thing that gets us to fix this but still. The moment a dem wins r's with screech debt/deficit/austerity. We are cooked. Epstein files confirm it all.

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONING

ok, so the EU is just going to pile a bunch of navy vessels within easy striking distance of Iran? idk seems so stupid its almost like we're trying to manufacture justification for boots on the ground

_Doomer_Wojack_

EU FOREIGN AFFAIRS MINISTERS WILL DISCUSS POTENTIALLY A WIDENING OF THE EU ASPIDES NAVAL MISSION TO THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ- FT And as Iran has stated “we are waiting for them”

ShowerMotor

Buy in Euros if the option is there, otherwise you end paying FX from currency exchange. As for ETFs, I keep buying UCITS because it's the only option available in Europe, you can't buy certain US etfs because in EU there are regulations, for instance SMH (semiconductors) is different in US and EU, the EU is capped at max 10% allocation to one company, while US is around 18% into NVIDIA for instance (more risk and more return).

ConinTheNinoC

How about they change the yuan to the euro instead. No way is anyone going to give China power over oil since they are as bad as the USA and Russia. The EU is the most normal of the big powers.

MostDouble7144

most people still think of tesla as a car company but the energy business is quietly becoming huge. their energy storage revenue has been growing faster than the auto side and if they start selling electricity directly that's a completely different margin profile. the uk approval is interesting but the real question is whether other countries follow. if they get similar approvals in the EU and asia this could be bigger than the car business long term

MuricanWisecrack

this is bullshit. Iran is \*always\* open to negotiations. But currently not with USA or Israel, because that makes no fucking sense. They are negotiating with EU for a sidedeal and EU pressuring USA and Israel to stop the aggression. Why should Iran seriously negotiate with Trump again?! He used the last negotiations to bomb. There is no game-theoretic logic for Iran to assume anything but maximum damage can increase their negotiation-position in the face of Trump. Only trumps allies begging him to stop this shit is going to help iran - so they do exactly press for that: Destroy everything that is allied with the US in the whole region, until the US finally grasp that this is not a war that is economically feaseable. (WHO COULD HAVE KNOWN THAT POSSIBLE BEFORE? SURELY NOT THE CIA AND EVERY FUCKIN NATION IN EU OR IN GENERAL)

y_u_so_madd

Why would the EU want that ? US has spent the last 14 months being hostile and telling them to fuck off. Let the US figure it out, after they backstabber all their friends.

RemarkableVictory990

In 2024–2025, the average annual full-time salary in the European Union (EU) is just under €40,000 lmao

TabulatorSpalte

Fertiliser I don’t know, but for LNG it’s also less than 10%. Qatar is the biggest exporter to EU in that region at 3.8% https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/where-does-the-eu-s-gas-come-from/

Commercial_Deer_7114

Ok so you are not American then, so why are you complaining about 0.65 expense ratios on a thematic EU ETF? Most index ETF's in Europe have higher expense ratios unless you opt for iShares or similiar US-issued-EU-domiciled. Based on your complaint, it would make sense to assume you are American and anyway it is not an insult so I really dont understand what you are upset about.

Commercial_Deer_7114

I dont think you Americans really understand how awesome your capital markets are for retail investors. This is a relatively cheap ETF by European standards. Our expense ratios are high because there is essentially no competition among banks/financial institutions and it is illegal to buy US-issued ETF's as the EU tries to protect the financial oligopoly. Some US-issued ETF's are available in a EU domiciled version, which is always worse than the original US one.

Grmplstylzchen

Gonna tell you that Starlink has little to no footprint in some markets like EU or Southeast Asia. Total subscriptions is around 10million. No idea how many of those were Russian drones (which could imply a hefty lawsuit due to export limitations have been circumvented for dual use goods). Aldi Talk, the mobile contractor for German food Discounter has 10mio active subscriptions aswell. The impact Starlink, SpaceX and xAI has is highly over priced and mostly based on how much money Enron Musk is spending from his pseudo wealth to keep it going. It’s AI circlejerk on solo player mode.

TabulatorSpalte

EU doesn’t import much oil via the strait, it’s less than 10%. It is though affected by the global oil prices. Most of the oil goes to Asia.

Sharp1Claw

That's a bit rude. I've been watching this stock for months, and it's already up a massive percentage, yet the shorts are still trapped and seem unable to cover their positions. Keep in mind, JSW is basically the ONLY coking coal producer in Europe that's actually expanding. With new steel mills opening across the EU that rely on coking coal, the fundamentals are much stronger than people think. This isn't just a random play; it's a strategic asset in a growing market.

old_Spivey

It will become WWIII. Trump wants Iran's oil, just like he wanted Venezuela's. China won't let him take control of it. China gets @ 20% of their oil from there, although because it is sanctioned by the USA and EU, it goes through intermediaries.

flyingdutchmnn

Hate* speech on X, and manipulative algorithms. The EU should force X and Meta to be sold off, as was done to Tiktok

PhilosopherSudden675

Weird reason? What about the fast that Ukraine spent the last 30+ years dealing with the aftermath of the Soviet collapse, corruption from that era, and then since 2014 we’ve been in a war with Russia. A lot of economic energy went into stabilizing the country rather than building a large capital market. On top of that, Ukraine never had the same early integration into the EU financial system that many Eastern European countries had in the 90s and 2000s. That makes it much harder to develop deep stock markets. Even now, a lot of investment goes through government bonds or private funding rather than public equities. And during an active war, launching IPOs or building a large retail investor market isn’t exactly the top priority for us.

daners101

As far as the terms go : The 🍊administration makes it clear that they are pulling out by the end of the month. If they leave a small contingent around the area or something, that doesn’t count as staying in the war. I mean, they declare success. The planes come home. They tell the EU or regions actors “hey you guys gotta step in, we’re done here” kinda thing. They effectively make it clear that this is not going to be a long term commitment, or reach some kind of ‘agreement’ with Iran and step back. Israel is not part of the deal. Those people are in it for the long haul. I’m not betting they do the same.

rollinhating

Yeh but, who dares..? They also said, the strait is mined, and they would shoot down allies of israel and US which is basiclly every EU country..

HEK293INVAX

Change your focus *now*, **XLU XES XLE TAN WIN** are the only 5 areas to concentrate on, oil supply isn't as important as oil delivery, TheWar is choking out EU Asia and the far east, higher for longer oil will make book in those 5 areas now, Everything else is in danger, not a fan off any other areas now.

kevphilly36

Lots are out of EU

MuricanWisecrack

EU was always and will always try to have a negotiation deal, as it knows very much that bombing teheran does not solve any problem.

Alone_Owl8485

Invest in a property etf for somewhere in the EU (preferably for the country you think you will live in). You manage the risk of the properties you will want to buy going up without the problems associated with owning one property.

arothen

I mean that's the reason why Iran won't let oil flowing to Europe. They still will have market for it, and EU is going to buy it through intermediaries, but that's the official stance so far

MuricanWisecrack

ofcourse, its a murderous regime. But EU will not and is not participating in this war. Forget it crosswise. Not going to happen.

The_300_goats

For a very complete war, why haven't hostilities ended? Where's the peace agreement? If 100% of Iran's military is destroyed, what are they lobbing at military installations all around the gulf? Bricks? If, as he repeatedly claims, the US military is by far the most advanced and powerful in the world (and it is), then it should be able to extricate itself from the mess it got itself into, all by itself I feel other world leaders have just about had it with Trump. He's emotionally volatile, unpredictable, petty, vindictive and impulsive. Also apparently astoundingly ignorant and almost unbelievably stupid. All terrible traits to find in a wartime leader. Nobody will join this escapade. If the EU has half a brain, it will ignore the USA and strike a deal with Iran on its own.

katorias

You’re not wrong, Russia’s invasion has been overwhelmingly useful for NATO countries in general, even if that does sound cold. It’s also woken up a lot of EU countries. While Trump being his Russian asset self is a temporary advantage for Putin, the whole campaign has been a general disaster for Russia and they can’t be allowed to win.

flyingdutchmnn

I cant wait for the EU to force X and Meta to sell off their shit

BarracudaDismal4782

He's desperately begging other countries for help now lol I just hope France doesn't accept, I don't want EU countries involved in this.

CryptoBoy-007

And Kurdish population. I'm sure Turkey will be very happy to give its immortal enemies control over the life line for EU energy.

thebestnames

China and the EU should broker a peace agreement between the US and Iran without inviting US representatives. They don't hold the cards anyways they should just surrender at this point.

PhilosopherSudden675

We issue war bonds. They are called “Ukrainian war bonds” and have been sold since 2022 by the Ministry of Finance. Ukrainian citizens, companies, and banks buy them through local banks and brokers. Foreigners technically can buy them too, but it’s not very easy because you usually need an account with a Ukrainian broker and have to deal with local regulations and sometimes hryvnia currency risk. It’s also bureaucratically difficult to list and distribute them on major international stock exchanges under EU financial regulations.

arothen

EU imposed sanctions on Iran.

MuricanWisecrack

Israel can wage their fuckin wars forever alone. but the hell any EU is going to support or join this shite.

MuricanWisecrack

and he completely ignores the fact iran can just do a side-deal with countries. Why should Iran no sell oil to EU & Japan? both are not going to start a war with Iran and also will not support USA more than the bare minimum (and not even that for countries like Spain) of allowing to use Airfields. Iran will selectively allow European ships and others who stay Neutral, but will not allow anything that is associated with US & Israel.

Kkbelos

When it comes to the yuropeans this is after talking shit, threatening them, trying to annex the territory of one of them, imposing tariffs after having negotiated a deal with them, actively trying to destroy the EU itself... Sure they will be happy to help!

gamjatang111

but energy problems in EU, Japan and Korea is very real

arothen

It's not only bessent. If they communicate with EU over releasing oil reserves we can keep price under 95 easily.

amartya_dev

Outside the US, liquidity is weaker. That means wider spreads and harder execution. Best alternatives: • **India** – very high retail volume • **Commodities** markets • **EU indices** (but limited liquidity) The US still dominates options trading. Most pros stay there.

WrexyWrex

EU is derisking from China, this is a good conversation about that. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FABADSseC-g&t=2403s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FABADSseC-g&t=2403s) and this [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mhy35jqgL-Y](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mhy35jqgL-Y)

whodey84

All this assumes we maintain the rest of the world as allies to continue to pressure, but we see CAN/EU/evenfuckingIndia allowing more Chinese investment and trade.

MethylphenidateMan

Not in the sense that actually matters for the war. The military will not run out of fuel before every single civilian switches to a bicycle and Ukraine's civilian economy has been supplied by an umbilical cord from Europe since day 1. The oil crisis tilts the economic balance between this Ukraine-EU pairing and Russia in latter's favour, but Ukraine will not collapse economically to a degree preventing it from defending itself until every significant European country decides to allow it to collapse which won't happen because such a decision ranges from a strategic blunder to unthinkable treason the further East you go in Europe. Like sure, some EU countries will probably get stingier with the financial aid as the oil-price-induced recession hits them and things will probably get harder for Ukrainian people forcing more of them to emigrate, but it won't get to a point where Ukrainian soldiers won't be getting fuel and salaries.

Halbaras

Traders have got used to Trump messing with domestic US policies and with rational actors like the EU and China who have a lot to lose. These incidents result in Vs because nobody else benefits from continual escalation. Though Greenland came a lot closer than the US thought to something very ugly because they decided to mix trade policy with invasion threats. Iran is ruled by people even more ideological than Trump. They've already been sanctioned to hell for decades, bombed in multiple incidents, and Trump launched the war by killing many of their leadership and hitting targets all over the country. They have nothing to lose now, the only ways the US can escalate now involve hurting Iranian civilians or spiking oil prices further (because seizing Kharg island would just cut off Iranian oil as well). There won't be a ceasefire any time soon because the US attacked them during negotiations - according to Oman they actually made big concessions on the final day of talks and the bombs still fell. What's worse is that this one came during what looked like the early stages of the US market correcting, and it came in tandem with horrible jobs, inflation and GDP numbers and disturbing private credit noises. There's a good chance that Trump has made the correction longer, deeper, more violent and more U-shaped, and it's now going to involve structural damage to the economy as fuel prices surge, memory chips get more expensive, and fertiliser get squeezed.

Possible-Pirate9097

Like naked options but for EU/UK.

szczszqweqwe

I agree, but it's even worse than that, it's a most likely endless war. Iran isn't Venezuela they have 90m people, who now hate USA, even opposition hate USA when US bombed civilians, like that school. Iran is only 6 times smaller than USA, Iran is very mountainous country, they are prepared for asymmetrical war, Arab countries won't help because they would risk rebellion on the streets. EU might help US in very minimal way, not with actual fighting, because EU seems to understand that it's not our war. And US will get much more terrorist attack on the US soil. In my opinion the only way out of it is for Trump to say that he won and back back down and then to pretend that Iran isn't attacking, and raised terrorism isn't connected with attack on Iran.

PqqMo

Here in the EU gas is above 8$

ruphustea

I didn't say the average American, the US is broke and the petroldollar is all we have to prop up the deficit spending. Iranian oil supports mainly China. The thing to watch now is whether Russia seels their oil to the EU or instead sells it all to China. Either way they go will be the start of WWIII.

edyang73

If AI is the new Internet, and all the dominant AI players are in the US, it's hard to see how Ex-US will outperform the US. Not saying it's not possible, but I don't see it happening. Esp considering the poor state of the Chinese economy, lagging EU, etc.

EatPie_NotWAr

But it doesn’t matter that Russia cant takeover Ukraine, only that Iran can hurt the US enough to make it say “well fuck, this is looking like a bad idea”. Also, by having the US divert additional money and attention to Iran it frees up the battlefield in Ukraine which is currently (at least somewhat still) supplied and monitored by the US. Think back to old Soviet-US proxy wars, that’s more like what Putin is familiar with. By helping Iran he forces the US away from helping Ukraine. If Iran hurts the world economy enough, of which Russia is severely removed from due to sanctions, it could cause the EU/NATO partners of Ukraine to scale back support as well. All in all, each missile gifted to Iran would be more beneficial to the Ukrainian war (from russias perspective) than if they bombed another random building in Kiev. Especially if Iran spends that investment hurting the global oil markets, which further helps Russia.