EU

FullCopy

I’m in charge of monetary policy of the EU block; yet, I don’t know how to operate the buttons on my tanning bed. - Christine LaGarde

Worldly-Constant5479

I work in liquid fuels so worth tempering the mandate excitement a bit. SAF is largely a compliance blending fuel right now and current ASTM standards limit it to a 50% blend due to engine seal compatibility issues with aromatics. On the mandate side, the EU and UK are currently at just 2% in 2025, rising to 6% by 2030. The US doesn’t even have a federal blending mandate, just tax incentives. Even as these percentages rise over time, the actual tonnage being produced remains tiny - we’re talking less than 1% of total global aviation fuel demand today. The total addressable market is always going to be a fraction of total aviation fuel demand. The opportunity is real but it’s not transformational, the mandates create demand but it’s a ceiling not a rocket ship

CoolConfusion3606

Bots to get people to buy assets by polluters before EU, Asia, and Africa decide that energy independence is far too juicy of a proposition to give up.

chessto

MSF falling is not just due to Copilot being not so good, and W11 being crap, also is about EU moving past Microsoft for some of their government agencies, it's a lot of money lost and it will ripple since it's now government offices but it will trickle down.

mark3kg

But these undertakings are happening. For example, Wero is being rolled out as an EU standard for payments. Tech wise, digital sovereignty is high on the EU agenda. I'm curious how that will play out since the tech industry in Europe is in a bad shape. The general sentiment about the US is low and many would like to see decoupling from the US.

TimelyBodybuilder121

Well if you look back market more or less ignored covid until there were layoffs + lockdowns. They ignored the Fed saying they will hike rates until they started doing it in 2022. They will probably ignore oil until there's an actual shortage and rationing in the more exposed regions (EU, China + SEA).

Brilliant_Object_847

Cuba I guess, or Greenland 2.0. Maybe some more tariffs in the EU since his buddy Orban didn’t win. Could be an annexation of the Vatican on the table as well.

trust_it_bb

Hungary unifying with the EU pressures end of Ukr/Rus war. This is what got priced in.

BeginningEar8070

the partnerships through METI delegation were mostly for companies that were blocked by the non-EEA ownership rule for sovereign/defense. For standard commercial procurement - enterprise, industrial, nonclassified- sony is already fully EU compliant. For classified defense- Sony sensors are apparently best available so Eu defense companies want to choose these sensors as integrations. Sony sensors are treated as best in world and has already existing distributor in EU, all they have to do is keep making best image sensor. Generaly speaking if you are eyeing Sony As investment- I am not sure what to think about sony- they had buybacks that protected the share price going below 3200yen. (250bilion yen up from initial 100bilion) Apple has tried to diversify from sony sensors for a while and now now driven by made in USA- is trying to partner with different company to replace the sony sensors in upcoming iphone18 (which has its own struggles with split release to reduce delays impact). but you need to fact check here- it looks like only one out of three sensors is being replaced by samsung- its critical becuase apple made like estimated 15-20% sensor revenue for sony so if its 1 sensor or three that are replaced has meaningful impact on revenue which has to be balanced by increasing number of sensors in cars - the current share price might be misunderstanding apples impact here? Sonys- crunchyroll has terrible reputation and quiet a bit drama. PlayStation increases prices, and patents real time censorship AI- and we dont know how it will be used with potential for platform wide content control. I read that sony sensors are doing amazing, and if they remain the best, all cars will want to use these- but EV market is also being delayed. Sony is Rapidus founder now combining it with Nihon AI application lead and their sensors stack, they can probably get some advantage with the early access to 2nm chip and later likely the 1.4nm in their tech like in playstation 6 and autonomous drivign chips i personaly bought small amount of share after seeing strong resistance at current price level, so there is not much to loose here at this entry point. Sensor market is realy promising, but im focused on the rapidus, and wanted to have exposure however smal to a founder that can profit from early access to chips which is relevant canceling Afeela (EV collab with honda) and apple might make this a value trap for a while, so Nokia/NEC/fujitsu seem like better growth engines with more clear situation vs sony conglomerate discount

apegen

He deserves it. He was a Trump supporter, admiring him and bashing the EU.

Belaroth

Too long to read it all, just come here to say that over half of Hormuz supply was redirrected to other routs so that shock some people expect is way smaller now plus ships for china and other biggest customers were normaly moving, even EU ships were moving so there is almost zero true shortage so far. Only Ships to US were on hold and US as far as I know has more than enough their own oil production and its still increasing it.

RandomTensor

I think Canada might push it further than the EU. That being said, if it seems like MAGA is going to become a marginal political force (I think will happen... but I'm not positive) everyone will be eager to get back to mutually beneficial business as usual. Reddit pushes all off these satisfying fantasies where the good guys fight the bad guys and everyone end up getting what (Reddit thinks) they deserve, and mixes these fantasies up with reality. Some of populace of these countries indulge these fantasies as well, but ultimately nobody has the stomach to make a costly point when they can just get straightforward economic benefits from not doing that.

RandomTensor

I really think you overestimate the EU. They will, by and large, just do what is cheap and convenient, it takes something huge to get them to value something other than that. The EU/Russia economic relationship 2000-2020 should make that clear. Once Trump is gone, and especially if a Dem is president, this will all reverse quickly.

brucebrowde

EU wouldn't be able to even start doing anything about these in the next 5 years. You don't just move off Visa or Microsoft or F-35s or Pfizer or whatever. Those are enormous undertakings. You're also giving way too much credit to "confidence". Nobody sane had any confidence in US before Trump took the seat. Or any other country, US is not special here. Every politician knows that everyone just tries to protect their own interests at that level. Friendships come and go, it's all business. On top of that, people have memories of a gold fish. We all know of all bad things that happened in the last 50 years, but all of them become faint images of what the reality very very quickly. People *know* about them, but quickly lose the *feeling* for the historical events and turn their attention to more recent problems.

xynith116

I get that oil companies are extremely hesitant to invest in higher cost oil infra if they’re not confident that oil prices will remain high in the future. But honestly I think it’s highly unlikely that oil prices will drop to 2025 levels anytime soon. It would probably take one or more of the following events: 1. Total capitulation by the US or Iran and return to confidence in freedom of navigation in SoH (unlikely). Note that a land invasion or Iranian civil war would likely not provide enough stability for this. 2. Investment in oil processing technology to reduce the costs of currently more expensive oil fields. This is happening but is really slow. 3. Miraculous discovery of new oil fields that are cost competitive (unlikely). 4. Investment in clean energy tech that reduces the demand for oil and thus the price of oil. This is also happening but is slow, although the rate of progress is different in different places. Out of all of these outcomes 4 seems the most promising, and also helps solve climate change which we want anyway. Even if the conflict is resolved it’s an overall win to move to renewables. Prior to this there just wasn’t the economic incentive when oil was still cheap. But it’ll still take time and countries like China and the EU are much more advanced in this than the US or global south. In regard to pipelines and other overland transportation, it’s an option but Iran has shown it’s very capable of striking infrastructure targets in the GCC. You can bury the pipeline (which is expensive) but then Iran can still strike wells and ports. I think it’s less about how much infra the GCC has, and more about how well it can be protected or how well Iran can be contained and unable to project power in the gulf.

Careless-Pin-2852

I more or less agree oil is priced correctly. Oil companies however are assuming this price is a fluke. It is not these prices are here for a wile. These prices are a recession in poorer countries and a drag on rich economies. I am wondering how fast pipelines can be built across Saudi to the red sea. Or if you are ambitious build a pipe line into turkey and then the EU. 1 year 3 5

Dry-Judgment4242

Send your oil tankers our way, I swear this all just Americans being tarded. If gas in the states cost the same as here in EU. This market would be shitting bricks. Even had riots in Ireland due to gas prices and this shit ain't even got started.

xynith116

Yeah I’m saying that if the oil market is already pricing in demand destruction and recession/stagflation, we’re not seeing the same pricing in in the general consumer/equities markets. You’re right that poorer countries, especially in East Asia where they directly get oil from the gulf, will feel the impacts first, but I have a hard time believing that the US, EU, and Japan/SK will be unaffected. So in my mind that lends to certain scenarios: 1. Oil markets have priced in demand destruction but equities markets have not. Oil won’t rise much but once the recession hits capital will flee from the equities markets and into stuff like commodities and bonds. 2. Both oil and equities markets are pricing in a “best case scenario” where the crisis is over soon. If this comes true then oil will drop back to near pre-war levels and equities can continue their rally. 3. If this doesn’t come true and we see a “long war”, then oil will rise and equities will fall. 4. The markets have already priced in a long war since Feb 28th, and these levels are the new normal. This would mean that the general sentiment that the crisis will cause a recession is incorrect. This scenario seems dubious to me based on how much volatility we see from day-to-day news announcements on the war.

Im_Basically_A_Ninja

Issue is it kinda will matter in 5 years, the EU is a massive economy and they are pushing to move away from US reliance, everything from payment infrastructure to defence contracts are being aimed at being brought in house so US markets are going to suffer from a lack of confidence for a very long time as EU governments shift their spending out of US companies. You can't ignore losing trillions in EU trading and think it won't effect it. Confidence in US companies outside of the US is shot, any contracts that get made can be torn up the next day or product not delivered on a whim. Americans dont understand that none of their allies or old main trading partners trust them anymore, 1 person gets into office and everything that was paid for can be turned off at their discretion, it isn't how independent countries work and the US can't keep themselves propped up without external trade.

SouthernBySituation

EU has the chance to do the funniest thing here

Moepenmoes

Why is MSFT even down, it's extremely undervalued It's still pumping out new cloud services/products and the userbase only grows And there is no reason to fear the EU will ditch them, because at that point MSFT will make a similar deal with the EU, like MSFT did with China in 2012: Selling and operating MSFT services through a EU mediator

DeepFriedAnoos

The United States literally can't "wipe Iran off the map" they literally do not have the strength to do it, other than using nukes. They can bomb all the power plants and bridges they want, Iran will just retaliate by crucifying the Arab Gulf States, sending the world economy into even more horrendous condition. The only way Trump can bring that to an end is a TOTAL WAR invasion, against Iran's 1m fighting force and an heavily insurgent population, for which he will require the draft. There's no world in which he will do that. If he tries, there will be a revolt. Americans do not have the political will or motivation to wage or win this war, while Shia Muslims will literally die for this, martyrdom is exalted in their religion, and Trump literally said their "ENTIRE CIVILIZATION WILL DIE". They are ready to fucking go, son. Do not believe the bs western propaganda of "iranians want us to bomb them, they are celebrating in the streets" If the US says fuck it and leaves, and lets "EU/Asia deal with the fallout" that just means the end of the petrodollar. No one is going to be forced to pay for oil using dollars because the US has just shown that all it's military and airforce and navy is ACTUALLY good for is taking a giant goopy shit on the carpet and letting someone else clean it up instead of enforcing free and "fair" maritime trade. Billions of people around the world who have no control over whom yankees put in the WH have now been put in a crisis through no fault or action of their own. They now have no incentive to pay for oil with dollars, have no reason to trust the US to uphold any trade agreement, alliance or goodwill promise and have active rage that the Americans have worsened their living conditions. So they'll simply sell our treasuries and stop buying oil with dollars. What's the US going to do about it? Fucking nothing, we have no teeth anymore, since Iran just made us their bitch. That crashes our economy because now who the fuck needs to buy our treasuries, but preserves the world economy in some roundabout way, albeit through a new world order, one which the US is not the policeman of, and everyone knows it. These two choices are dichotomous. Either one happens or the other. If Trump TACOes out to choice 2 after trying some version of choice 1 it will just turn into a worse choice 2 with even worse consequences for the US and longer hurt on the global economy than necessary. I'd love for someone to explain to me i'm wrong other than "ghey bear number go up"

Altruistic_Run4_

As a Christian I was very offended by the original post, but tell you what if we take him at his word, he wants to help people. . . Ok then, encourage the FDA to approve Immunity Bio’s Anktiva for broad based cancer treatment like the EU and Saudia Arabia already have . . .

faramaobscena

The US has spent the last year insulting and threatening both its allies and its enemies. They can’t handle one single war with one country with massive unrest that they planned ahead & started themselves. China, the EU, India, Japan, S Korea, Canada and many others it has pissed off would kick the living shit out of them.

AyDylo

My personal take is that the markets are betting that this conflict won't last long. We aren't talking about a year+ conflict here. Frankly, I bet most people assume this will be wrapped up within 2 weeks. Too many players at play here. Other countries will either back the US or get the US to back down. The US cannot keep this up long term by itself. They will either "wipe Iran off the map" and end the conflict that way, or just back off and let EU/Asia deal with the fallout. Either way, US companies should be fine. The consideration is the backlash worldwide on US markets. Obviously we won't be popular after this stunt. That will hurt US companies but that will not hurt every company equally.

Walternotwalter

These analytical posts are insane to me. It's not hard to figure out: You cannot short global savings accounts. There is massive money printing that mathematically has to happen unless sovereign nations default. China, the parts of the EU that are economically relevant, the US, Japan, even Russia, are massively indebted. People will say fiscal bullshit like "current account surplus" and other shit like "net exporter," but none of that matters. This is an inevitable conclusion. The best companies on earth, PM ETFs, and financial engineering ETFs will ultimately outpace inflation. Maybe even crypto. It doesn't matter there is no alternative. Bonds are trash because they are rolled over and reprinted or bought by central banks to maintain "liquidity." This is how the system has evolved. It generally works well. Shit your pants at every headline but those who are fucked hardest are those willing to entrust their ability to pay for things to the same entities indebted to the tits that have to print money to keep the entire system afloat. There is 3X global GDP in US dollar denominated debt. And let me be the first to tell you that no other currency wants to deal with that shit either. Go ahead and short and get clobbered over the rest of your life but every central bank on Earth will print away any major crisis until it doesn't work and when that doesn't work anymore who the hell even knows what will.

JustaBearEnthusiast

So what you're saying is puts on the EU. 🐻 🇪🇺 

Prudent-Leading-8835

Last time they did that, EU futes did deep hard

NotMe357

We either get our TACO tonight or early tomorrow. If not, then I think TACO will let the blockage last a few more days to bait EU/NATO or China to help him with the Strait of Hormuz.

Sir-Realz

I think what most people are missing is the other exchanges are much more directly hit EU, Japan, China, all dipping sharply so US markets are alot more appealing, as we still have fuel. Our stocks are getting pumped up, the war might even be a very brutal tactic to increase US domanice by choking out the rest of the world all at once. Russia is the only country I'm aware of that's also benefiting from the Iran situation financially. 

AssistX

> Like I said , the USA isn’t charging toll fee yet you keep coming back with more extravagant responses. Iran is bud, Iran is charging the toll fee. > Has USA indicated they would stop any other non Iranian ships docking at Iranian ports and leaving? No. Yes, they said as much on Friday and Saturday. Iranian government has said as much, Indian and Chinese government has confirmed it and the EU has commented on it. But, maybe you know more than all of these countries that put out official statements that you somehow can't find?

Europeanroadbycar

EU market is fucking lagging

Lord_Vesuvius2020

Yes. That’s the part I don’t get. Won’t there soon be a physical energy shortage throughout Asia, Australia, and soon the EU? 5 ships per day doesn’t fix that. Why doesn’t the market have more concern about this reality? Paper oil price won’t be real compared with spot price. And who can assure delivery from GCC?

BOATING1918

Don’t leave out the EU from the fun!!😃

taffy_laffy

They're following the NEE blueprint with massive amounts of diversification in the EU/Japan/Australia/US. Either they continue growing the share price or eventually turn into a dividend machine. 20% insider ownership(always increasing) - Toot money flowing in 2:1.

Appropriate-Run-7490

Waiting for the EU and China to get in on the blockade action

CoolEnergy581

Last I checked the US wasnt in the EU

SirButcher

Just the regular fascist doublethink. The enemy is always so strong that your very existence is in danger (and only **WE** can protect you), but so comically weak that they are never able to achieve anything. You can stop this everywhere, from Sleepy Biden (who is a criminal mastermind and controlling the whole world) to the EU (going to create a nightmare united Europe, but can't pass a single law and is on the verge of falling apart) and through countless other examples, including the original from the Nazis where the Jews controlled the whole world's banking sector killing Germany but never could stop the rise of fascism.

charleydaves

Thats why the EU is gearing up for war, double or bust at the big casino

Pete26l96

bers legit downvote all positive comments during late night - morning NA hours lol I got laid off from GE last week so I've started hanging out here during this time as well as during the day recently, and the late night - morning people here are legit the most disgruntled, bitter, and negative people. Can't tell if it's just because everyone is laid off / unemployed like me up at this time, or EU poors LOL

MarienBean

There is still the general 15% tariff on all goods from EU i think.

Fancy_Rice_2799

Didnt US and EU make a trade deal? When I try to order from [amazon.com](http://amazon.com) I still get slapped with import charges?

Apprehensive_Law7629

Did that after he started talking about taking Greenland. Still have some US stock but I reduced my exposure to US market from 70% to 30%. The Japan and EU ETF I integrated are indeed outperforming US market during last year.

AtlanticRelation

Who knows. Most likely they'll avoid confrontation. Still, the EU has previously boarded Russian shadow ships and there was little reaction from Russia. You don't have much ground to stand on when it's under a different flag and other ships are being blocked under the threat of destruction by Iran.

Apprehensive_Law7629

I don’t like Tesla but at the same time it’s been the first company with approval for self-pilot cars test in EU. That might change the “taxi/uber” market forever

randomwriteoff

Even when the US market is open and the ETF isn’t trading, its fair value is still moving in the background based on futures and pricing models. When the EU market opens, it usually gaps to reflect what happened overnight. That said, if you’re trying to react to intraday US moves, EU ETFs aren’t ideal. I ran into the same issue and ended up using etoro for US stocks directly, since you can trade in real time instead of waiting for the ETF price to adjust.

thornCircuit

If EU starts buying US oil then our price at the pump will increase.  They are willing to pay like $10/gal, are you ready to pay that so that exxon gets rich selling to EU?  You are correct that somebody is getting rich from this but it ain't us, we are gonna be the ones paying the costs

Pete26l96

Germany announced they're shifting away from Microsoft products including Azure, much of the EU has stated they're following suit, actually going as far as to make legislation regarding it. People on reddit downplay this but it's going to be a serious hit to MSFT's growth and bottom line. A lot of newer companies that are overtaking older ones also no longer use legacy MSFT software.

imunfair

Blockading the EU ports and making them pay a toll to leave is the real 6D moneymaker here.

OneTwoThreePooAndPee

I've got puts on Nvidia, calls on Google+Amazon, and the rest in China, EU, and IGOV... And other than that, man, I don't even know where to go right now.

Ok-Piece-2546

Maybe EU thought he was just bluffing and his admin wouldn't be this big of fools. Using hard measures against the USA could send the global economy down. South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan can't say much because they are dependent on U.S. for defense. Meanwhile China and Russia are more than fine watching U.S. destroy relationships. I'm hoping China does send some ships and weapons to Iran and EU and Asian counties reliant on oil also send their navy to stop this madness. Also stop Isreal too while they are at it, as Isreal seems to be salivating at any chance to stop peace talks.

Pete26l96

MSFT down 3.2% in pre-market LOL Microsoft be creating generational bag holders, why anyone would hold after Germany announced they're completely shifting away from MSFT legacy products and EU is planning to follow os beyond me.

Soossaaaa

Pakistan, Venezuela, Greenland, and Iran have all have 2 common themes: - They have resources US wants - They have heavy investments from China Everyone is missing the big picture this has all been to weaken China. 🥭 wants turmoil in the Middle East and EU so that US becomes an even stronger default currency. #### Here's my take on what happens next: - US secures the strait and oil+minerals - US will go for Afghanistan next to reclaim Bagram Air Base (using Pakistan as a proxy) - Russia will be invited back to the G8 with Ukraine land concession in exchange for oil+minerals

Pristine_Afternoon96

Seems like they’re doing this to draw the EU countries out to open the strait

Dutchpapersilver666

What? Diversification did not work back then bro... I had everything all over the world, lost 50+% stocks, funds, from USA, India, China, EU, etc...nothing was safe back then. Cash was the best thing to have and phyz gold coins

Consistent_Panda5891

Euro also gonna drop like a rock, after all it went 5% on a day last week on hopium ceasefire. And many EU airports reported they have... 12 days left of kerosene

puts_every_day

Orban lost, strati still closed. Can't wait for the middle of the night post introducing 100% tariffs on the EU on and about taking Greenland. My puts are ready!

EvilDrCoconut

\*Stares at EU, Australia, Brazil, India, etc logistics collapsing due to lack of fuel and diesel\* https://preview.redd.it/vhy6sgad5tug1.png?width=260&format=png&auto=webp&s=f60bb5a745e956812c8d83dac188bed4386c5397

Prottusha1

Not necessarily. Iran allowed EU countries to pay in Euros.

sbronchiol

That's the thing I like about EU market: you have time to make normal trades before the clown wakes up

NotMe357

TACO will TACO on Tuesday about blockage Strait of Hormuz when he found out no one (NATO/EU) will come and help him lol

Polysorbate800

Whoa the EU just announced an agreement to block the strait

postusa2

They just held up 180 billion dollars of funding... they aren't irrelevant to the course of the EU at all.

Wise_Monkey_Sez

\> This announcement is expected to weigh heavily on global energy markets, as it will bring the trickle of traffic through the Strait to a complete standstill. No, it won't. China or some other nation will order some ship with a skeleton crew to run the blockade, effectively calling Trump's bluff. If Trump fires on the ship it'll be WW3. The USA will have pissed off so many nations that they'll be fighting a war on a hundred different fronts. While the US military is powerful it is also not capable of fighting a global war on its own. US planes and ships will be vulnerable on a global scale and EU is likely to play the "NATO is a defensive alliance and you started this war you muppets." card. So Trump will chicken out. He always chickens out. Everyone knows this. Also, the US economy can't survive on its domestic oil supply. Blockading the Straits of Hormuz will hurt the USA more than it hurts anyone else. And Iran? Iran doesn't care. They'll continue to hit oil infrastructure in the Middle East. They'll be supported by less oil-dependant nations like China who are profiting heavily (both politically and economically) from this stupid conflict.

Salty-Bid1597

Only in the brains of nationalists. Functionally Hungary is irrelevant even in the EU. They will be glad to see the back of Viktor but they have found ways around him anyway.

_IsNull

Canada, Mexico, NATO, EU, Japan, Korea, Israel, Saudi , Iran, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Venezuela, Cuba. Well he seems to be going for nearly every county on earth. Next up would be mars, moon and the sun.

SirButcher

Without the US Iran wouldn't be under an embargo and goods would have flown freely for decades. The US strongarmed the EU to keep the embargo on Iran.

Vegetable_Good6866

Hormuz is a pretty good country in EU4

JennaTulwartz

I think the idea is pressuring their governments into applying more pressure on the US (a pretty low bar to clear since they’ve applied zero pressure so far) to cut the bullshit. EU nations have been the biggest cucks during 🥭 pt 2 and their citizens have noticed  

Yokoko44

Without the US, Iran would have closed the strait 40 years ago lol. EU has been freeloading off of US military protection since WW2, pay up or shut up losers

sadguy__

🥭 literally threatens EU with more tariffs if they dont join. He wants it so bad.

Superente_

EU won´t join this conflict and even if their ships sink they won´t give a shit because we are cowards on the global scale. Sadly thats how it is.

Admirable_Heart_271

Not for trading advice obviously but for verifying data presented is correct and up to date not some 2month old news etc because so much utter BS get’s posted these days and then add bots+100% AI posts also. I’m too lazy to Google myself so Gemini is really helpful and I use Gemini at work also. I don’t think there’s much difference if you use GPT,Gemini,Claude or Grok even but for me Gemini works the best. Annoying thing is it gets time wrong for example. Might be because I’m in EU and sometimes fails to get the right timezone or maybe I spam too much and it gets confused.

gul_bil

The US is a major benefactor from high oil prices, specially in light of Venezuela. I suppose he also blatantly rigs markets. The interesting thing is how China is going to deal with forcible disruption of a vessel headed to them. He has also alienated friends and allies, which would complicate matters. Which incentive does for instance the UK/EU have to uphold a blockade which messes with their economy, after the last year of stuff? 

Maxion

China will blockade the straight behind the US blockade and also charge a toll. Then EU blockades the straight...

Soffatjockis

Either Florida or Sibera for that fucker. So I guess Florida. Then again, he is no use to anyone when he's not cockblocking the EU.

ShittyUsernane1222

The US-Iran war will be one massive geopolitical shit-show. India is going to support Israel to keep its own Muslim population in check while also supporting Iran to keep Pakistan in check. Pakistan in turn will support Saudi Arabia to keep India in check and Palestine to keep India in check. NATO is going to probably dissolve into a multi-faction infighting mess due to pro-US and US-skeptical countries splitting away to form their own NATO alternatives due to 🥭 shenanigans. There might be an upcoming US-EU conflict since the US is supporting Orban and EU is supporting Magyar and the US is clearly supporting anti-EU groups inside the EU.

ohell

Yep. Like always, > our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran^(unless they belong to a country under the protection of China or Russia) EU will need to find its spine sharpish - no more touching Daddy's happy place so he will let us sleep in peace!

Kattilaeikka

In other news there is elections in Hungary today. Hungary is completely irrelevant as a country but the election results may have massive geopolitical implications. Based on polls the Russia & US backed pro-russian anti-european corrupt fascist autocrat will lose after 16 years in power. He has managed to veto a lot of good things EU has tried to accomplish through out the years.

KeySpecialist9139

"The finest in the world," all alone at the world's most important traffic jam, begging for backup while your allies are literally forming a group chat to clean up your mess. Let's run down the list. Germany called it "not our war" and asked what "a handful of European frigates" could do that the mighty US Navy can't, Canada flatly said "no intention of being involved", Japan, Italy, and Australia all said no, France and the UK basically went "let me check my calendar and get back to you", EU officials called it "a complete mess" and said they have "no desire" to help. And the cherry on top? About 40 countries are now working together to fix the Strait and the US wasn't even invited to the meeting. So yes, can you please be more stupid? It's going great - for China and Russia. 🤣

loveiseverything

EU ships will be stopped. USA will not stop Chinese or Indian ships.

CurvedTVGreen8788

Separating the political impact and Elon impact on the price of a stock is naive though. Elon's political stance is one of the primary reasons the rest of the world has basically stopped buying Tesla vehicles and set their sights on Chinese brands like BYD and Xaomi. As someone that has traveled to the EU and Asia recently, I don't think you realize how good those Chinese vehicles are compared to Teslas for a fraction of the price. The only reason Tesla is still relevant is US protectionism and the fact that companies like BYD etc. are still building out their supply chains worldwide. There is no universe where Tesla is going to win this EV game long term.

dzjay

No way the USA stops Chinese or Indian ships. This will be an attack against the EU only 

ReceptionFantastic25

France? Lol bruh France and EU have been trying everything to f* with US companies, not just MSFT, for decades. No hope if they have no real replacements lol

RevolutionaryGold325

China will just laugh, increase their ev production and wait for US to get through cutting its branch. EU will start negotiating a new trade deal with china by the end of the year and abandon the American voters idea of a beautiful world.

ShittyUsernane1222

we know US navy is gay and in general most world navies are gay too. I wonder if the ceasefire negotiations actually succeeded and the US navy is aiding Iran in its blockade so that US navy sailors and Iranian sailors do gay shit while fucking over the EU (one of 🥭's big enemies) by destroying their oil supply.

suur-siil

EU 14-day distance selling return window. Works with shares and options that you decided you want a refund on too. 

Xelonima

Spain is the only country in the EU to actually have testicles

cleverhobbits

If Asian economies are truly in trouble and EU is not far off due to energy shortages, then money will leave those shores and flow into US markets. That portends a green day to start the week unless there’s an escalation in the Hormuz.

Wowmuchrya

Well too late now, doesn't even matter if he TACO's. 7 weeks without ships going through the strait is gg lol. EU/Asia are fucked.

TarrifJacksonJr

Trumps about to rip into a podcaster and drop a ticker Isreal will keep dropping bombs (never stopped) Iran will misplace some more mines in the straight Uganda will lower demands to 500 million dollars and a GF China, Russia, and Turkey will keep supplying Iran Turkey could potentially join the war on the side of Iran EU and various countries like the UK and Germany potentially enter on the side of the USA to re-open the straight Spain, Japan, and Korea are haters and keep telling every1 they are regarded Uganda makes a deal for 250 million and an e-girl More epstein files get released

HFB_To_You

Orban can try his coup as well on Sunday for added EU instability, if there's not already volatility enough.

YeonneGreene

>Forking is a git command. Maintaining a sovereign operating system stack is a multi-billion euro, decade-long institutional commitment. "Just fork it" is the tech equivalent of "just print more money." Yes, and? You think the USA is going to blow up the entire FOSS industry tomorrow by shackling it with hard export controls (granted, today's the US government is virulently stupid)? You think France can't find a billion euros in its budget to move mountains if it needs to? You think France needs to in-house ALL of it at once and couldn't at least temporarily pivot to EU-sourced alternatives that have been spooling up over the last few years or been spooled up? You think it's unprecedented that an adversarial country might be able to maintain its own sovereign operating system within a relatively short timespan? Or that it must necessarily shun all relations with the US-driven FOSS to achieve its aims of sovereign control of its government software stack? Like, you are basing your assessment on the doomed effort of one city that doesn't have the budget, economic levers, regulatory powers, or compelling national security interests of a nation state. Frankly, LiMux is irrelevant. You should be looking at Kylin, which took 5 years to stand up in the early 2000s, or Astra, which took about 8 in the 2010s.

Rfunkpocket

the day the EU said they wouldn’t help open the strait until the fighting stopped, was the day Trump began only looking for a off-ramp allowing him to save face. this is over. nothing but all caps meltdowns from here on out.

Puzzled-Intern-7897

Why would you consider AstraZeneca a stable stock, to me Pharma-stocks where very patent reliant and swingy when it comes to new approvals. One wrong study and the stock can tank -80% sometimes. This is at least what I have always thought, happy to learn more. Regardless of this I have a similar approach, but it's all a bit shifted. My safe base is bonds and dividends, German Bunds, French OATs, IG EU-business bonds, and dividends payers such as BAT. My middle sleeve is good Cashflow names with growth such as SAP, and I was thinking about maybe adding Utility company's such as Iberdrola. Last is my bets, right now mostly aiming at stagflation, so commodities or companies that have inflation protection through contracts or other types of pricing power. Siemens Energy for example can tell the costumer what they want, because GE can't repair their turbines. This part of the Portfolio is around 30% when I make my macro bet, that either fails, or gets trimmed or sold, once it pays off. (BAT was a bet against Liberation day, I kept my winnings in it and allocated my original position to a new bet) I am basically creating a stable base, to do macro plays from. So far the bets have been all the movers in my portfolio, the base just pays coupons or dividends.

lOo_ol

Your comment misses the point. No one cares if it's made in Portland or Lisbon. Linux is open source. The idea is to gradually decouple from US arm-wrestling politics. In other words, in some not-so-distant future, if the US forces Microsoft to stop serving the EU if they're ever at war over, I don't know, let's say Greenland, the EU has the source code of Linux and can keep operating regardless of what the White House says.

dobik

Don't know and doesn't care. I think it may get be a strong president for the private sector there to follow as well as a trend within EU. I think lately the German government did something similar to France in ditching MS tools

YeonneGreene

Where Linux is managed is kind of a nothing-burger. If shit hits the fan that hard, France/EU just fork the project, give the middle finger to the US over licensing, and carry on.

Holiday_Sandwich3738

Imagine that China who is notorious for poor workers right and working conditions does the same else where? This is why the Reddit glaze on China I can’t take seriously. The same people screaming for better pay and workers right also glaze China and hate on the EU and U.S. who have not perfect but at least some protections.

Larry_3d

I'm European 🤣 when EU tells US companies to comply with EU regulations does not mean banning