EU

Ill-Mousse-3817

No. I think two separate things are happening. The main thing is that the US wants out badly. The Gulf countries invest all their money in the US for protection, not to hear pathetic excuses. The US NEEDS to fix this ASAP. Or China will. The other thing that is happening is that the US is indeed pissed off by the behavior of the Europe (and in much minor measure Asia) "fence sitting". We may discuss whether Europe is right or wrong, but it is irrelevant. The US uses the temporary stalemate to at least pressure the EU and the other NATO allies into military action. This is just a consolation prize. We'll see if the ceasefire holds. Iran also wants out BADLY. However they want to inflict maximum pain to the US, hoping that this will lower the odds of future attacks.

snesk0008

Not defending Trump, huge mistake to start this war. Here's how it 'ends' with both sides 'happy' 1. Reparations - Trump is going to lift sanctions and will provide 'aid' through the remnants of USAID. This will be money and food, which Iran needs to reduce water usage for crops which has caused an almost total collapse of their water system. Trump will also lift some sanctions (Venezuela style). 2. Uranium - The US will acknowledge Iran's right to enrich, to a non-nuclear standard, basically the previous deal Obama negotiated. IAEA will monitor  3. Control of Strait - US will acknowledge that the Strait is "managed" by Iran and Oman commission but can't charge tolls.  What does the US get: 1. Iran will conduct oil sales in USD. Iran DGAF about the Yuan and was using USD previously.  2. Iran won't be allowed to sell weapons to 'terrorists' basically ending Iran's proxies. Iran knows it's proxies deterrent failed anyway, and they need to rebuild the Iran military before support regional partners anyway (although they may continue to arm houthis to control the red sea). 3. Iran, US, GCC and Israel stop hostilities. Israel knew they couldn't topple Iran, as did the US, but if they can turn Iran from hostile to distrustful that's a big win for Israel in particular. This is the crown jewel for the US & Israel and is part of the US strategy of flipping middle powers from China to US. Cuba, Venezuela and Iran are all aligned against the US and therefore would align with China. Plus it reinforces petrodollar dominance. If the US gets this, they functionally win. Now will Iran be a friendly? No. But they effective neuter Iran, force the GCC to oblige the US lest they restart hostilities and shore up power through the USD.  Ultimately the US fucked up here. But the US strategy is genuinely to open simmering conflicts to expand power. It's a bad strategy in the long term, because the US is showing itself to be a bully rather than a reliable partner. It's forcing allies and enemies to re-arm and will ultimately lead to a multi-polar order as the US lead collation fades as allies get fed up with bending the knee. Each conflict also leaves the US massively exposed for other corners of the globe to take advantage of the distraction. Next up Cuba. A much weaker power with almost no leverage. The US showed its quite willing to bomb the shit out of any country and leaders that don't go along with its plans, so you can bet that this one will go alot smoother. Trump has wounds to lick, but they will use this show of force against Iran to scare Cuba into heavy concessions.  After Cuba, we'll have a break for the mid-terms but then we have 2 years of Trump uninhibited. He's going to get something from Canada, Greenland or Europe that they don't want to give up, he wants that 51st state and you better believe he's going to find a lever in there to take a big step in that direction. My guess, Canada as they aren't part of the EU. Probably removal of their tariffs.

TraditionalAd8415

I do think a lot of people questioned America's ability and its willingness. Iran chanted death to America every day, the Maduro taunted the US to "get him", because they calculated the US leadership would not dare to attack them. The willingness to use the weapons and endure the pain is as much part of the calculations and is very much in doubt after Iraq. Obama etc. largely banked on civility, international laws, and "the power of persuasion" to push other countries to do what they want, and Trump obviously believed in raw power. So far, I don't think he was disappointed. To make sure we don't live in a bubble and just spin events to fit a narrative, sometimes it is beneficial to force yourself to make a prediction that is falsifiable. Before today's ceasefire, did you predict Iran would allow the passage of ships even temporarily, or did you predict, as most on Reddit do, that there was going to be a long closure of the strait? I did and I made some money from that prediction. You can also make a prediction today, will the strait be closed after 2 weeks, or will it stay open. My belief is the starit will remain open and Iran's nonsensical demands will mostly not be met. The US will not pay reparation, and will not abandon the bases in the Middle East. The best they can do is some empty promise to never attack again. As for the tolls, I believe it won't be sustainable, or better yet, Donald Trump would actually get to share part of the tolls collected, if Iran is to actually receive tolls, at the expense of the EU, Japan etc. as always. Do you wanna right now say whether you believe will happen in 2 weeks,rather than somehow spin it to mean another "Trump lose "narrative after the events have happened? The wonder of falsifiable prediction is that it clears minds and counters the tendency of human beings to spin whatever events to suit a preexisting bias. I watched before Trump's election, every pundit in the media saying how this is a scandal, that is a gaffe, to try to paint him as stupid and crazy, yet only to see him beating supposedly sophisticated political operatives like Hilary and Harris. If your judgment about the world is accurate, you should be able to make reasonable predictions with more than 50 percent accuracy. And of course, you should also be able to turn it into financial advantages rather than Reddit karma. So, care to predict the future?

DeezCodeNutz

EU algos should be fun to watch soon. 😂

MirthandMystery

Wouldn't surprise me to see some overlap given Predictit was doing the same the and was basically first but had other academic partners in the Us including MIT. I watched it developed and took part in making a few small bets to see how it worked. You could see how it could be used to foment sentiment, skew opinions and make bettors real money if they knew how to manipulate users and data they needs to make bets. Later a few made big money betting on Trump winning in 2016, a similar shock to the Brexit vote where in both cases, Cambridge Analytica and the Mercers gave inside info to a small number of people. In the case of Brexit 'Leave EU' in the UK some used it to their advantage betting on the £ currency drop since they had better data how many were actually for voting for Leave versus falsely fed info from Nigel Farage openly saying in the late stages oh it looks like we lost and Remain will win, though he too was in on it. They intentionally held back their data and wickedly celebrated as the shocked majority of average people ended up upset, realizing what just happened and even being asked the question initially they'd been duped.

DeezCodeNutz

EU algos @ 1AM EDT

TraditionalAd8415

Is there a scenario, in your imagination, where Iran would be seen as "losing" other than just outright begging on Twitter? I imagine if they even did that, it would still be seen as some cunning plan to manipulate Trump or something. I am going to guess you decided the US "lost" before any news developments happened. The way I see it, Iran capitulated under duress. Their leverage is the Strait of Hormuz, and they allowed the passage of ships, which would stabilize the market and dampen the fear of stagflation, not because they got anything other than the US's promise not to attack. Of course, it was never a match between equals. The US had the overwhelming power, and Iran couldn't even hurt the US without hurting other countries that had no connections to the conflict. Even in a scenario where they controlled the strait indefinitely, the EU, Japan and Korea would be hurt much more than the US, which is a net oil exporter. The United States, in the process, demonstrated its unquestionable military superiority, especially in the daring rescue operation of the missing crew. Unlike Russia, which was exposed as a paper tiger, the reputation of the US military was largely intact. Of course, you could say this is not a good trade for the money spent, and maybe the US didn't really get anything positive out of it, but the result of the war is quite unambiguous: the US bombed the shit out of Iran, killed its leadership, and the Iran had no choice but to capitulate to open the Strait of Hormuz. The premise of Donald Trump's foreign policy philosophy is that the US was constrained by niceties and he was more willing to deal with countries through raw power, which is why he largely avoided antagonizing those he considered strong, like Russia and China, and dealt contemptuously with Europe and Iran, and Venezuela. At this moment, his thesis has not been disproved. Though sometimes the cost benefit analysis is hard to calculate without hindsight. Russia overestimated its strength and was now paying a price for this miscalculation. But I don't think we are yet for the US. Donald Trump's "bullying", so to speak, is largely successful. EU dared not to fight back against his tarrif wars, Venezeula and Iran largely capitulated even after heavy beating and didn't mount a serious attack on the US. On the grand scheme of things, so far at least, I don't think Donald Trump has seen negative consequences from his very dark, very cynical view of power relationships.

NightOfTheLivingHam

except look at what vance has been doing over in europe. He's been actively involved with undermining the EU in favor of Russia. The chain of succession is not much better, if not worse. Vance has years ahead of him.

bigorangemachine

My thoughts... * This is not a message from Iran * Pakistan bought a lot of Trump Coin * Iran has repeated they have no clue who he is talking to * Iran has threatened to go weapons free if Trump followed through on his threats * Mid-April is the beginning of the new moon which would be ideal for a night mission to capture Kharg Island * Trump has intentionally been delaying to get boots on the ground somewhere * Without capturing ground Trump doesn't have leverage eventually they'll run out of bombs * Losing access to EU airspace makes the strikes less effective and stretches resources especially considering the loss of key airframes (AWACS/Re-Fuelers) * I'm inclined to not believe Trump unless we actually hear about Aircraft Carriers out of the Gulf

Belaroth

There is more renewable energy sorces than before. Hrom Hormuz is coming only 20% of global supply andm ost of it is for China and Japan. US and EU wont have any true lack of oil, just prices will be higher coss oil has global market. On other hand a lot of oil producers in EU and US are making new drills, starting new projects and so on. So on one hand is not that insane oil crisis as many makes it to be and on other hand is rapdi drop of oil prices to previous values if US takes control over Hormuz or Iran makes a deal. With prices of oil companies already up 100%+ and price of oil being completely overvalued right now especialy in US which is paradoxicaly least dependant on Hormuz. Potential make money on this speculation vs potential of losing them is more 50/50 in my view so not worht a risk.

johndsmits

just brent crude. wti is up. maybe EU struck a deal?

Calculonx

Why would they negotiate with them? Their best bet would be to negotiate with the EU and the other Arab countries. ...I think I saw this guy shoot at the Olympics

znightmaree

The sheer weight of global sanctions against the U.S. would cripple U.S. equity value. Forget if other countries form a united front against the U.S., not to mention the numerous scenarios where China and Russia would use this as justification to use tactical nukes on Ukraine, Taiwan, or if they decide to join a fight against the U.S. in the scenario where the EU and other global powers sanction the U.S. It would be such a catastrophic disaster, the circuit breakers would absolutely trigger. Crash would be an understatement.

Czar1987

We can only hope. I've felt sick all day (over in EU so I've had extra stew time)

Bewbonic

Its not america first, its russia first. They want to weaken/destroy NATO and the EU, so russia can attempt to invade and dominate europe one country at a time, meanwhile the US and China can dominate their spheres of influence. Its authoritarians trying to destroy the western democratic world order. Even the flawed, billionaire and corporation corrupted version we have is too much democracy as far as these psychopaths are concerned.

John_T_Conover

Absolutely not. The best case scenario would be a rise of the EU or an alliance of them and other developed wealthy countries like Australia, Japan, South Korea & New Zealand filling the void. China being given the reigns to policing and economically running the world is NOT a good idea.

Final_Valuable_5998

LMFAO voting never mattered, both parties are paid by the same people that gets paid in EU to flood the countries with age men middle easterns and Africans... What's going on today would have happened with a Democrat in the office. 

1mp3rf3c7

Just watched him give a speech praising Orban and shitting all over the rest of the EU. Fascist scumbags are taking over.

melanthius

Words will, no doubt, be uttered by the EU and UN about this development!

Angry_X_574

The US pulled out, the EU, Russia and China did not. Iran stopped complying. Facts matter I know that must really make your hole pucker in your desire to blame all things on Trump or Republicans. Trump's a dick for the handling of Iran in its current state. But he didn't off load 2B that went to funding terrisom around the world so he could gas light his political opponents down the line. That's on Barry. I'm party agnostic. Since that's probably a new phrase for you, it means I do not commit Blue no matter who Red till I'm dead. I'm an adult. I also don't play with boys. But you do you

No_Aerie_2717

Men has already fleed to EU? 😂

aidettec

Perspective from the Netherlands here. I have a friend that works closely with the Dutch Pancreatitis Study Group (PWN) with his uni, and they’ve been tracking CRAC channel inhibitors like Auxora for a while. People in the US might not realize that in Europe, Acute Pancreatitis (AP) costs our healthcare systems roughly €10,000 per patient because we literally have no pharmacological tools to prevent progression to organ failure. We’ve been stuck with supportive care (fluids/nutrition) for decades. The Phase 2b CARPO data published in The Lancet this February is a massive topic of discussion in our rounds. Seeing a 100% reduction in new-onset respiratory failure isn't just a statistical win, it’s a game changer for ICU capacity and patient survival. Here in the EU, Auxora already has Orphan Designation, which shows that regulators on this side of the pond are just as hungry for this as the FDA.

mattinjp

So what happens if Iran decides to exclusively sell to everyone but the US? Open the Strait of Hormuz to the EU and let America buy from them?

Ticksdonthavelymph

Yes actual kiddo. 89.2%% of FX trades are in USD as of this year. 59% of global reserves are in USD, 49% of global market value is in US markets, and 77% of top 100 companies, are also in USD… but sure dump 80% of your pocket money somewhere else??? Further Hormuz is going to (and is already killing) all international markets. As EU and Asia are both energy importers. The US by contrast is an exporter and the largest single producer.., Are you starting to see the point? Yes diversify, yes increase international allocation. But to a US/nonUS at 60/40. Not your absolute insane 0/100 ratio

RareGuarantee3532

Yeah I mean, Korea and Japan are "politely" getting away and building their own defense. EU is ridiculously trying to also already. Gulf countries are looking for a way out. In few years from now USA will stay with puppet Venezuela and Argentina, maybe a few puppet baltic countries left. I dont see any country with ressorces to be drained enough to keep US economy floating in that list.

Soffatjockis

JD urging EU to buy Russian oil and praises Orban who is a Russian asset who has a shaming kink is peak shit. US is a split ownership between Israel and Russia at this point lol.

MizarX

There is an article on the frontpage of corriere.it - Italy's biggest and most politically neutral government, in which the italian minister of defense openly admits his fear that this is "madness" and Hiroshima and Nagasaki have taught us nothing. Italy is led by far right, ans has been up to recently on very friendly terms with Trump. Understand this: the minister of defense, of a big EU country, usually friendly towards Trump (before Iran), on a centrist newspaper, is essentially saying "this may very well end in nukes". And then think about, even if it doesn't, what about next time? This criminal isn't stopping here.

JKorv

Oh so that justifies killing them all. Great. Now look up the crime rates between US and EU countries and you realize what a shithole US is. There were 425 mass shootings in US in 2025. There were 3 mass shootings in EU in 2025. US is a very violent country by all statistics, so your point is pretty weak.

hhAgent

Money talks, USA and Western EU is ran by Financial Institutions, most of the wealthiest FIs are ran by Jews. Crime is merely what the poor inflict upon the rich. Here they call it justice, self-defense, …

RareGuarantee3532

well they are actually doing quite well, they have 2 "power of siberia" linked to China flowing at full. And still three up with EU that are only empty because EU is trying all it can to experiment poverty. The one that was blown up by US"kranian(lmao)" was already empty, and more a threat to EU puppet states than one to Russia.

Ravenous-Hydrant

I mean, who the hell is preventing Iran to send a container vessel and land it in Suez like Evergiven? That would be so funny. USA and EU straight into the stone age 😂😂😂

RareGuarantee3532

The only source of USD is the US bro. And you can only buy US stocks and bonds with USD, so needs to check who is getting USD and funny enough, Asia is getting rid of USD, EU is flat on the USD change, trying to fix it's own industrial/energy situation. Gulf states are not really buyers for the past month. Are you saying its Greenland and Antartica's money ?

Belaroth

I dont think situation is black or white as many people draw it. Yes situation can escalate and there can be energy crisis. Price of OIL will go up, but neither USA nor EU is dependant on oil from countires around Iran, US imports like 10%, EU like 20%. Japan and China are heavily dependant on it. And when prices of many things will even than go up, most companies will move extra cost on their customers which will lead to significantly higher inflation thats true. But that means nothing for companies earnings which with increased prices will go most likely up while salaries (company expenses) will lag as always. Than there is whole aspect of AI making everything more effective and replacing some proffesions, lowering expensis for many companies or increasing effectivity. All and All. If war with Iran will cause crisis it will be really bad for avarage person but that doesnt mean it will has to be bad for stocks, as I see it there is real chance stocks right now can even work as a hedge against crisis coss while everything will be more expensive, companies will have record revenue and margins. So paradoxically people who will wait on sideline with cash preparing for crash (as normaly would be smart thing to do) can this time be completely left behind. And with AI and robots replacing people in jobs, anyone who doesnt invest now can actually really struggle in next years.

RareGuarantee3532

Since when US backed down from carpet bombing a place into losing a war ? Step 2 will be to make beautiful movies about how they won the war. Will get global only when China consider that US is weaken enough to seize Taiwan, when gulf countries consider that US is weaken enough to take payments in other currencies than USD, when EU consider that US is weaken enough to free itself from US domination.

GnarlyBear

EU needed to protect one of its largest industries by uncompetitve behaviour from Chinese regional governments and it has worked. Chinese brands manufacture in the EU, create more jobs and build skills in modern car design.

iAmEzE

maybe this is a stupid question but is there a way to find out which ETF‘s will be affected by this? currently i am passive active investing in CORE MSCI World, IM and EU?

GnarlyBear

Volvo are made in the EU, their Chinese production is for China

GnarlyBear

Your comment is an example of why the electorate are so ignorant and communication on these decisions needs to improve. I understand the sentiment of your comment. All the Chinese car brands sell at unsustainable prices and are propped up by huge regional government grants. In China it is a massive regional pissing contest to be the winning brand and therefore region. It is so bas the national government got involved and told them to stop reducing to bottom pricing. EU companies cannot compete on the unfair terms at there are millions of jobs accross the EU off the back of these brands. It has also worked as the Chinese companies, in order to get rid of all their EV only stock, have opened near shore factories (Hungary mainly I think) which has created jobs and made the prices realistic. Most EU nations have EV subsidies on the consumer side. In Spain you can get about €8k off right now so they are protecting the consumer too.

AllCapNoBrake

No, people should be against him, and EVERY OTHER POLITICIAN that's backed by AIPAC/israel. See, here on whiny liberal reddit, most are either bad actors in the space or really that dumb to think that voting in a (D) will change things. It will not. Israel owns both sides of the aisle which can be confirmed by visiting AIPAC website. Israel does NOT care what the US Gov't does to its own people, so long as the US Gov't remains israel 1st, period. AIPAC makes one party bomb out the middle east, while making the other party open the borders and push policies that break up the nuclear family (they do not want more goyim). The end game is to collapse the US (like they have to Canada, EU, and AUS) and move the greater israel project forward or THEE files get released (which they never will...because that's how they lose the leverage). Now the bots from r/tinyhats will be deployed, because their $7k propaganda checks are on the line.

Diligent_Baseball239

To say it in a polite wey - lets say Vance has an agenda. Trump hasnt, instead we hear speeches moving markets, soldiers, warships and weapons... My point is there arent any fundamentals or any TA methods they would tell you to go long or short anywhere. I have had a chat with someone having a "Large Trader ID" and even he said the market is untradeable. We exchanged about oil and natgas... on crude I had my doubt but not on nat gas, he is long on crude since WTI was at $70 and I was short on US natgas in the front month. Just because noone from Europe is buying natgas anywhwere. There is only one fact, the daily growing supply deficit for crude and other stuff made in the UAE drains the supply. IF you wanna trade, wait for the refill months which do usually start in June for nat gas. Then the EU is also buying, they have to buy.

Python_Feet

Why can't EU buy from Canada?

SeaworthinessOwn2479

I mean they are going to have to replenish these stockpiles eventually and the EU is going to have to actually spend those earmarked euros, so maybe more upside is yet to come. But that may be wishful thinking on my part.

SamQuentin

EU making a Great decision to stay out of it. Lol Their people will die but by golly they stuck it to drumph

HelpfulNobody

# Where the US, EU, Israel, and China oil imports come from. [https://i.redd.it/g22ay6n7vgng1.png](https://i.redd.it/g22ay6n7vgng1.png)

TyroneSwoopes

Kinda funny all the posturing CF Vance did towards the EU for not ‘properly securing’ Greenland and we got the clown show trying to secure a 20 mile stretch of water.

pointsouttheobvious9

I think if there is a US-EU or world war vs US. There will become a civil war where half the US joins the otherside.

Skidpalace

I see a civil war before any US-EU or World War.

rwc5078

Was he saying it about each EU country? Or 🥭? I can see it applying to both

Rfunkpocket

EU said they wouldn’t help open the strait until fighting stopped. I think everything else is just noise

Redebo

A simple 1GW data center? One gigawatt is pretty damn large and you don't need a GW for inference processing of AI. All of your other points are spot on: It's hard to cool things in space. But here's a handy engineering data point for you: About the same surface area that you need in solar panels to power the space-based data center is needed to COOL said data center via radiation. The front side of your solar panels will always be pointed at the sun, which means the back side of the solar panels will always be pointed at the blackness of space. I also agree that we shouldn't be putting the GPU's in space, but you know what makes a TON OF SENSE up there??? The network. Do you as an operator of a DC in the UAE want to have your data have to hop through other EU or UAE type countries before it gets back to say the USA-based data centers? Or would you rather fire it out of your site in the UAE, to your space-based network, and then have it fire straight back down to your land-based data center on the other side of the world? Space is the obvious choice for this in this context and I think that's what Elon is gonna shoot up there.

Altruistic_Finger669

People keep telling me that im crazy when i say that the US is now the biggest threat to the entire world. It wouldnt be shocked if there was a US-EU war within the next ten years.

marvin_bender

The US is an oil exporter. It uses almost no oil from the gulf. Asia was hit badly and they are probably bidding for US oil so they drive the price up. But US oil takes a very long time to arrive in Asia, so probably they couldn't buy a lot of it, this is why the price is still not ultra high. If the worst case scenario happens in the next few days and more oil production is taken offline, the USA will probably restrict oil export to protect the internal market. Then Asia and EU will be even more fucked.

tachyonvelocity

LOL do you even fundamentals? Why do you think EU AI is nowhere to be seen? If you think the bottleneck for energy is bad in the US, the EU is literally decades behind, with energy costs more than triple that of the US. All commodity shocks do is make the countries holding commodity abundance more competitive over the long term.

Honest-Capital-4472

$ES April 7: Tracking EU and US session’s first hour range incl VIX’s resolution of 25 as a follow-on from April 6’s note

Honest-Capital-4472

$ES April 7: Tracking EU and US session’s first hour range incl VIX’s resolution of 25 as a follow-on from April 6’s note

2AMTrader

Stop asking about low volume, its easter monday, EU markets are closed. Dump is tomorrow.

CardOk755

No. You don't understand. It had nothing to do with NATO. Russia (or, rather, Putin) doesn't want Ukraine in the EU. He doesn't care about NATO.

Canyon2022

The EU is giving a gift to Trump. The gift being, a reason why he can back off his insane threat. “I was going to destroy everything but our allies pleaded with me not to.”

Orange_Codex

The last oil, nitrate, and natural gas shipments from Hormuz reach the US and EU from April 10th-16th. Even though the US (and much of the EU) doesn't rely on Hormuz shipping, global contract prices apply equally to all consumers. We can conservatively expect 10-15% consumer price inflation. That's *without* Yemen yet closing the Bab al-Mandeb, because they haven't yet been attacked, but when they are we can safely double that. Oh, and Americans are currently carpet-bombing Tehran. I don't know how Trump missed the memo that terrorising civilians doesn't force a surrender (a lesson German, Japanese, British, and USian strategists have learnt several times over), but he's trying it anyway. No truce will be arranged any time soon.

D4nCh0

So a fully loaded USN carrier easily outnumbers the F16s & F35s RSAF fields. Unless you can convince PRC to provide similar security guarantees against USA. Hack the launch codes for all their USA fighter jets, or replace them. Along with all the U.S. based cloud services. That allows the island to run as an international financial centre. Something even the mighty EU is unable to do. Since British colonial days, our job has been to help white money in & out of China for our cut. To the tune of one of the highest GDP per capita worldwide currently. Maybe offer something feasible upon your geopolitical soapbox instead? We’d hate to slump down to your living standards. Thank you very much.

ToddlerPeePee

Nobody is telling you how FUCKED the global energy situation actually is right now. Everyone is watching oil prices. $109 futures. $141 spot. Headlines everywhere. Nobody is talking about what happens when this goes on for 15 MORE days. I have a friend who works at a major oil trading desk in Singapore. He told me last week: "We're not even quoting prices for April delivery anymore. There are no barrels to sell." That's when I knew this was real. Here's what you need to understand: Philippines — NATIONAL ENERGY EMERGENCY. Reserves under 15 days. Diesel prices DOUBLED. Pakistan — 4-day work week for ALL government offices. Universities online-only. Bangladesh — ALL shops must close by 6PM. Office hours cut to 9AM-4PM. Thailand — HALF the fishing fleet shut down. Can't afford diesel. China — fuel EXPORT BAN imposed. EU considering fuel rationing for 400,000,000 citizens Germany reactivating MOTHBALLED coal plants Slovakia calling to LIFT Russian sanctions just to keep lights on They're showing you "ceasefire negotiations." They're NOT showing you that Iran said it won't reopen Hormuz under a temporary deal. This isn't an oil crisis. This is a civilization crisis hiding behind an oil crisis. Credits: RyotaCalledIt

GreatSince86

You’re looking at Tesla through a 2019 lens judging a tech pivot by its legacy hardware sales. Here’s why the 'impending collapse' narrative you're trying to spin is missing the bigger picture right now: The 'Sales Slump' is a Product Transition: Yes, Q1 deliveries (358k) missed, but look at the inventory build. Tesla isn't 'failing' to sell. They are clearing the deck and refitting lines for the Cybercab/Next Gen platform launch. Betting against Tesla right before a mass market ramp has historically been a losing trade. The April 10th Catalyst: You mentioned the NHTSA, but you’re ignoring the Dutch RDW approval expected this week (April 10). This is the 'holy grail' for FSD in Europe. If Tesla unlocks the EU market for Autonomy, they just gained a high-margin software revenue stream that legacy auto can't touch. Energy is the Hidden Giant: While everyone obsessively tracks car deliveries, Tesla Energy just hit a record 14.4 GWh deployment in Q1. That division is scaling faster than the automotive side and carries higher margins. It’s no longer 'just a car company.' Optimus is no longer 'Vaporware' Optimus Gen 3 production officially started at Fremont this year. Tesla is currently deploying them in their own factories to solve labor bottlenecks. Once they prove the unit economics of 'Labor as a Service,' the valuation floor shifts from billions to trillions. Tesla is currently in the 'valley of dread' between its two biggest growth waves. You’re betting on the dip; the market is betting on the pivot. Stock is undervalued.

PlayerHeadcase

Another week or so until the "gap"- the space usually filled with tanker transports - reaches the US and EU and the real shortages begin. The "Gap", if the war ends NOW, will be at least four weeks long. ..and the war wil probably roll on for at least 2 more months, probably for at least 5. And thats all not even considering the damge to ships and infrastructure that may take years to get back to "normal". TL;DR who said they are inflated? This is the new lowest price you will see fuel for a year.

Charming_Raccoon4361

i said "straight is not closed" what a no life weirdo, alhamdulillah US will take all the oil and all chinese and EU hates can not do anything about , praise allah for free oil

Leaf4Lucky

Outdated? Nokia owns the majority of the Networking cables in the EU.

Horcsogg

Too late to get into some oil stocks or nah? Elliot wave predicts it should start correcting soon, and now this 'EU and Chinar negiotiating with Iran' stuff too...

wunderspud7575

Iran's offer to the EU to open up access to the strait for the EU, and hence for oil trade in Euros has the US administration utterly shitting the bed. If that ends up happening, that's the end of the petro-dollar, and collapse of the US economy. Bring it on, I am sick and tired of the US fucking up the world.

pwn4321

Laughing all the way to the petrol station ;) (oh wait I live in the EU and drive electric hahaha)

Jasmine7707

I think that they are supposed to receive an EU approval for their product this month. Could be related?

failgubbe

I think Vestas(VWS) has a good future, 2026 is a year of investments for the future so the stock took a hit but has showed strength again this last week. New factories in Scotland and Japan are being built but the big play here is china facing regulatory bans in England which potentially can happen in the EU as well and then Vestas is perfectly positioned to take a lot of those deals.

Key-Appointment1064

For context I’m a US/EU dual citizen and travel frequently between both. Europe is in shambles. Swiss francs are somewhat independent of massive EU regulatory hurdles and the ECB’s years of “zero-interest policy.” Europe has some very incompetent leaders who have caused Europe’s economy to become anemic. German car industry, which is a motor of Europe and Germany, is struggling like never before. Energy prices are the highest they’ve ever been since COVID and will continue to rise once the real oil shock hits and the last remaining GCS energy arrives in Europe. Aside from a bit a few gas and oil fields in Norway and UK, Europe imports all of their energy. Gasoline in Germany is currently close to €2.50/l, around $10/gal. Diesel is already past that. Hitting Nordstream was one of the worst decisions that the west ever made. Right now, we could have pressured Russia to the negotiating table. Europe needs Russian oil, and if the idiotic Zelenskyy US puppet state hadn’t blown up nordstream, Europe would be in way less of a mess.

cheeshomie

Neste Oiy. Renewable jet fuel from Finland which becomes mandatory to use in the EU over the next thirty years. No brainer in my opinion

genjky

Short BABA. Plastics going up and China is resorting to buying high premium polymers from EU and USA

Deep90

I don't think this is what they had in mind, but there are actually a number of considerations. For starters, Hungary is in the EU which would be subjected to GDPR laws. India has similar with DPDP. On the US side of things, military, defense, aerospace, government, and even healthcare (especially medicare & medicaid) all strongly prefer or require their data to remain in the US. That is just the data centers. American nuclear technology is also regulated. If I'm correct, you need to go past the DOE, NRC, and maybe the EAR. Which is not even considering what agencies India or the EU would require you to speak with.

wha2les

When the world turns to shit, the dollar is still the safe haven. Maybe it is a knee jerk reaction, but its not like you have any alternative currency. Chinese Yuan isn't able to fill the void, the conflict affects the EU very hard so the Euro is kinda out of the question too. GBP isn't what it used to be since the empire is no more. So the dollar is the only thing we have right now as a safe haven. The stupidity of America is definitely going to hasten the development of alternatives though.

NotMe357

"Rubio: If Europe won’t allow us to use the bases we man and fund for their defense when we need them we ought to close them down and remove our troops from Europe. If they get attacked by Russia we can discuss whether or not we have the time to help." EU Defence stock probably is gonna pump in the next few days.

phillydawg68

I'm buying property in EU. It's a bond

GaryTheSoulReaper

The euro ? Brexit - then you have other countries bitching about EU overstep (while happily taking EU money)

Subject_Delay5447

Natural gas prices in the EU are insane right now. Thinking about selling my own actual gas to cover my losses

ChollyWheels

Ultimately, money is energy -- you're rich if you can buy things, and things take energy to create. Ideally a dollar (or whatever) is a measure of the energy to create the thing you're buying. The Technocrats proposed pegging the value of a dollar to a quantum of petroleum for that reason. Current events are a serious threat to the EU on many levels -- Russia is richer and emboldened, and the EU is energy deprived, for starters. Meanwhile the USA is approximately energy independent.

RareGuarantee3532

630 tomorrow, Asia will dump, EU is mostly closed but will also dump, great down gap, then green candle

RealMcGonzo

I first noticed the Dollar Gloomers when the EU formed. "The Euro is going to kill the UDS!" They screamed, LOL. There's nothing magical about the Greenbacks that say it'll be king forever but to switch means to switch to something better. So far better isn't out there.

cristalarc

Because for as shitry as the current state is, most other countries are in worse position. Most of my friend circle had to leave Venezuela, and everybody who went to the US is in a far better position than those at EU / Australia.

Rock_or_Rol

China is calling for a ceasefire too US diplomacy is shit rn, but with EU and China brokering a deal, we might actually get a ceasefire With that being said, I don’t know what it’ll take for Iran to play along after all the assassinations and bad faith negotiations from the US and Israel. Still, China is their best way to come out of this. Iran’s threat this whole time is MAD, so.. I’d assume they’d prefer not to be destroyed themselves If we do get a ceasefire today or tomorrow, it probably won’t be for very long

RareGuarantee3532

Ok but what's the point of firing the generals that were opposed to ground invasion 3 days before the end of his deadline ? The former Iranian minister chatting with JDVance through Pakistan got killed in Bombing. All EU and Asian govt are planning and going live about long oil shortage. I mean is there any sign, appart from Mangotweets, that are showing any sign of peace ?

asfbrz96

No, they just tax the hell outta y'all in the EU

ian_coke77

A core Iranian demand is America leaving the region, and it's leverage to achieve this is holding America's host countries and their oil hostage via closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacking their oil facilities which they have in the past (mostly just signalling capability rather than permanent impact) So even if Saudi Arabia is able to produce oil despite Iranian attacks, the question is still how these Gulf states release their oil to the market. Saudi Arabia exported 6.2m barrels per day via the Persian Gulf but due to closure has had to redirect it to the Red Sea via Yanbu port, but this only recovers at most 3m bpd at max capacity. Other gulf states don't have this option. However, even this funnel can be targeted. Iran controls the escalation ladder. In such an event where Iran is losing the Hormuz bargaining chip, they still have Houthis in Yemen to create a double blockade at bab el mandeb, closing both the Persian gulf and the red sea. Houthis in the past have demonstrated capability to close it. Saudi Arabia could consider paying the Iranian Hormuz toll, but this legitimizes their domination of the gulf, funding a geopolitical and religious rival, and would likely result in US/EU sanctions. So in summary, Iran has demonstrated ability to strike all oil facilities in the region, maintains Hormuz domination, and can call upon Houthi allies to trigger a double choke point. Ultimately, I do believe the world will find a way to get oil to the market, by increasing production in venezuela and canada, and adjusting refining facilities and logistics for these feedstocks accordingly. But this isn't something that can be resolved in 12 months as supply chains are very inflexible in the short term.

rahul91105

Nah man, Iran is in the position to strong arm EU into paying toll for Hormuz and even lift some sanctions if they are feeling greedy. Trump on the other hand isn’t backing down after this (looks like a failure after losing two jets and needing to rescue soldiers.

digital-didgeridoo

Some EU countries are mulling limits on price gouging, since heating oil, and other energy is so critical. Pretty sure lot of countries already have this in place, unlike USA. India (and Pakistan too I guess) have slashed the taxes on gasoline sales, so the government itself takes the hit

v3ritas1989

I am from the EU. We kinda think rationally the first time we open our mouth. At least most of the time.

AllCapNoBrake

While nobody is ready for that convo, we absolutely need to kill the control/hold that the tiny hats have over the US/CN/EU/AUS. Then we can let the world know what the tiny hat's degenerate cousins also like to do to little boys.

wormtheology

You’re on fucking tar if you think 2030s are peak oil. The huge differences between the 2000s is that in post-GFC the US started to see the effects of their technological advancements in extracting oil and natural gas. The shale revolution allows the US to leverage itself as a maritime energy exporter. More supply potential will keep prices in check. This notion being pushed in financial media with “experts” that paper crude or paper WTI is going to see $150 a barrel is asinine. Remember that Japan, the EU, and the US all have money printers. People will not be allowed to get rich on an energy crisis the same way people aren’t allowed to profit off of a financial crisis.

WinterDice

It’s too bad the Air Force killed the Super Tucano purchase effort. What the US (or Ukraine or the EU) should do is find the kid that showed off the DIY $100 MANPAD system, hire him at $500k/year, and then have some professionals setup a manufacturing operation to pump out his system by the tens of thousands. Warfare has completely changed over the last few years and the West is way the hell behind the curve.

Synergiex

I doubt there will be an attempt to take it. He is stupid but hopefully not that stupid right? Or at least the advisors around him? Well that’s possible too since they are all paid shills of israel/aipac too Anyway if i were to bet this is what he will do: Analysis: Trump finally realized he f’ed up and trying to militarily take it will be a huge undertaking by itself, not just financially and death toll wise but also the image of this war in the world’s eyes. Way out: Trump looked for a way to have a deal. Iranians of course didnt accept and mocked him because 1) iran has the upper-hand 2) they dont have much to lose left 3) they dont trust trump and they dont believe this would be their last attempt. Conclusion: Trump cant commit to ground invasion especially right before elections and it will result in stagflation. So, since he is a big baby with a fragile ego, he will destroy everything with no respect to civilian life including power plants and rest of the infrastructure in iran. Iran will respond in similar manner to israhell and gcc. Trump will declare victory, and announce they are going back and tell EU to deal with hormuz strait closure by either paying up fees or opening theirselves Overall this will result in outrageous issues with lots of refugees as people wont even find water to drink, once infrastructure will be destroyed just like the zionists want. And it will become a never ending war between iran and gcc/israel. Israel will continue to expand.

Wafflez424

I do agree but at the same time things change very quickly in world politics, America would be easy to invade from north or south but we have friendly nations that we purposely keep weak and reliant on us for that very reason to provide buffers. The way things are going, the world might realign itself and if Canada + Mexico seek better relations with Europe and Asia versus US then it wouldn’t be that hard to overtime sneak troops into both places and build up an invasion force. Hell might not even have to sneak, US has bases all over the world, why not China or EU? Their both more then capable of it, just not really willing but with how the world is fracturing might not be a bad idea, what is US going to do? Fight EU or China over some bases which is perfectly reasonable, we can barely handle Iran at this point and don’t think even Trump would be stupid enough to go to war with most of the developed world at once. US used to have soft power that could have prevented the scenarios I mentioned but we pissed it all away

Cornwallace88

- Most likely illegal - Where not illegal, most likely frowned upon by your employer and profession - If your trading activity got picked up by regulators (who have tons of scans on irregular trading that occured right before big announcements) - it would be a slam dunk to notice you were an editor with access to insiders Haven't seen any responses recognizing that this differs by jurisdiction - which can involve up to 4 countries if each of the following were different: - Country of the exchange you're trading on - Country of the company you're trading - Country you're performing your trading from - Country you're a resident of Those could easily all be the same place if you were US-based trading a US company, but something to keep in mind. The safest assumption would be assuming the strictest rules applying. The US and EU are generally similar with a slight nuance on EU making things stricter as you dance toward the line of material non-public info. For your case, info from govt officials even about general economic action can absolutely still fall under this umbrella.

I_am_Nerman

I've seen EU 1st hand. No thanks. I've also been a patient in a Sao Paolo private health facility. It was as nice as anything in America. But my son got sick once hours outside of Sao Paolo in a very rural area. We visited a health facility that was very 3rd world. My wife, who is from Brazil, wouldn't even allow them to inject him to receive fluids for hydraton. The conditions were not sanitary. My family had 4 surgeries last year in the US. It was a crazy year. We basically had no wait times, had the best doctors and surgeons in the world using the best technology and techniques in the world. We only had to pay max individual out of pocket for the surgeries. It was a small fraction of the 100s of thousands that were billed.

nsfwnsfwnsfw33333

I think here in the EU people have woken up and the machine is slowly distancing itself from the us.

TJMBeav

Is there really any doubt how we open on Monday? Futes open down about 30 points on the S&P. All evening the futes drift lower, sniffing 0.75% on the slow and steady fall. Unexpectedly, oil prices drop 3% on rumors that France, in cooperation with the Ethiopian navy, was studying using small boat screens to protect convoys thru the straight. The Ethiopian navy has had success with throwing wet blankets to thwart I-rans flying lawnmower attacks In Lebanon the HOOT-ters unsuccessfully attempted to attack Jerusalem thru the air using Chinese weather ballon technology (as effectively demonstrated evading US air defenses several years back). IDF forces commented, anonymously, that the trick to shooting them down was to not lead the target to much. No successful attacks have been reported so far, but experts cautioned that it is early and these weapons only travel at super subsonic speeds equivalent to a large tortoise. Markets are falling, even as oil prices retreat, after reports that England plans a "muslim love" day on Easter Monday in an attempt to convince the powers in I-ran, that the English people feel bad for the poor abused elder clerics, and in no way endorse any move that originated in President Chumps nightly rantings. Markets appear to believe that if immigrant illegals do not also get a full days wages on Muslim Love day they will team with Greta and glue themselves in all traffic circles. Markets also are concerned that both Germany and Italy, while privately voicing support for the total obliteration of Iran, believe that EU law makes it illegal for them to form an axis, or alliance of any kind, especially if Japan also joins. EU legal experts estimate it will take weeks (or longer) to get a preliminary judicial verdict and any verdict would be immediately appealed by Hungry. In other news, casualties in Chicago continue to exceed those in Iran. Chicago's mayor pointed at ICE for the increased violence. "If you leave the homies alone they will just get drunk and pass out". Also, Governor Newsome made news when he called put Joe Rogan in a live broadcast. The governors where abouts are unknown, so he has not been able to respond to Rogans childish "bring on that bitch" tweet yesterday. Prediction markets currently have it at 99% no show for "that bitch". And that is the news/predictions

crisco000

We have no treaty with Ukraine. None. We had political promises at the time, but that’s about as good as the president who agreed to them. The only point you made that I agree with is us not starting wars of aggression. I just go further by saying we shouldn’t fund wars that have nothing to do with our country. It’s Ukraines problem and maybe the EU. It is not our war and no tax dollars should be spent on it.