EU

Belaroth

I dont think situation is black or white as many people draw it. Yes situation can escalate and there can be energy crisis. Price of OIL will go up, but neither USA nor EU is dependant on oil from countires around Iran, US imports like 10%, EU like 20%. Japan and China are heavily dependant on it. And when prices of many things will even than go up, most companies will move extra cost on their customers which will lead to significantly higher inflation thats true. But that means nothing for companies earnings which with increased prices will go most likely up while salaries (company expenses) will lag as always. Than there is whole aspect of AI making everything more effective and replacing some proffesions, lowering expensis for many companies or increasing effectivity. All and All. If war with Iran will cause crisis it will be really bad for avarage person but that doesnt mean it will has to be bad for stocks, as I see it there is real chance stocks right now can even work as a hedge against crisis coss while everything will be more expensive, companies will have record revenue and margins. So paradoxically people who will wait on sideline with cash preparing for crash (as normaly would be smart thing to do) can this time be completely left behind. And with AI and robots replacing people in jobs, anyone who doesnt invest now can actually really struggle in next years.

RareGuarantee3532

Since when US backed down from carpet bombing a place into losing a war ? Step 2 will be to make beautiful movies about how they won the war. Will get global only when China consider that US is weaken enough to seize Taiwan, when gulf countries consider that US is weaken enough to take payments in other currencies than USD, when EU consider that US is weaken enough to free itself from US domination.

GnarlyBear

EU needed to protect one of its largest industries by uncompetitve behaviour from Chinese regional governments and it has worked. Chinese brands manufacture in the EU, create more jobs and build skills in modern car design.

iAmEzE

maybe this is a stupid question but is there a way to find out which ETF‘s will be affected by this? currently i am passive active investing in CORE MSCI World, IM and EU?

GnarlyBear

Volvo are made in the EU, their Chinese production is for China

GnarlyBear

Your comment is an example of why the electorate are so ignorant and communication on these decisions needs to improve. I understand the sentiment of your comment. All the Chinese car brands sell at unsustainable prices and are propped up by huge regional government grants. In China it is a massive regional pissing contest to be the winning brand and therefore region. It is so bas the national government got involved and told them to stop reducing to bottom pricing. EU companies cannot compete on the unfair terms at there are millions of jobs accross the EU off the back of these brands. It has also worked as the Chinese companies, in order to get rid of all their EV only stock, have opened near shore factories (Hungary mainly I think) which has created jobs and made the prices realistic. Most EU nations have EV subsidies on the consumer side. In Spain you can get about €8k off right now so they are protecting the consumer too.

AllCapNoBrake

No, people should be against him, and EVERY OTHER POLITICIAN that's backed by AIPAC/israel. See, here on whiny liberal reddit, most are either bad actors in the space or really that dumb to think that voting in a (D) will change things. It will not. Israel owns both sides of the aisle which can be confirmed by visiting AIPAC website. Israel does NOT care what the US Gov't does to its own people, so long as the US Gov't remains israel 1st, period. AIPAC makes one party bomb out the middle east, while making the other party open the borders and push policies that break up the nuclear family (they do not want more goyim). The end game is to collapse the US (like they have to Canada, EU, and AUS) and move the greater israel project forward or THEE files get released (which they never will...because that's how they lose the leverage). Now the bots from r/tinyhats will be deployed, because their $7k propaganda checks are on the line.

Diligent_Baseball239

To say it in a polite wey - lets say Vance has an agenda. Trump hasnt, instead we hear speeches moving markets, soldiers, warships and weapons... My point is there arent any fundamentals or any TA methods they would tell you to go long or short anywhere. I have had a chat with someone having a "Large Trader ID" and even he said the market is untradeable. We exchanged about oil and natgas... on crude I had my doubt but not on nat gas, he is long on crude since WTI was at $70 and I was short on US natgas in the front month. Just because noone from Europe is buying natgas anywhwere. There is only one fact, the daily growing supply deficit for crude and other stuff made in the UAE drains the supply. IF you wanna trade, wait for the refill months which do usually start in June for nat gas. Then the EU is also buying, they have to buy.

Python_Feet

Why can't EU buy from Canada?

SeaworthinessOwn2479

I mean they are going to have to replenish these stockpiles eventually and the EU is going to have to actually spend those earmarked euros, so maybe more upside is yet to come. But that may be wishful thinking on my part.

SamQuentin

EU making a Great decision to stay out of it. Lol Their people will die but by golly they stuck it to drumph

HelpfulNobody

# Where the US, EU, Israel, and China oil imports come from. [https://i.redd.it/g22ay6n7vgng1.png](https://i.redd.it/g22ay6n7vgng1.png)

TyroneSwoopes

Kinda funny all the posturing CF Vance did towards the EU for not ‘properly securing’ Greenland and we got the clown show trying to secure a 20 mile stretch of water.

pointsouttheobvious9

I think if there is a US-EU or world war vs US. There will become a civil war where half the US joins the otherside.

Skidpalace

I see a civil war before any US-EU or World War.

rwc5078

Was he saying it about each EU country? Or 🥭? I can see it applying to both

Rfunkpocket

EU said they wouldn’t help open the strait until fighting stopped. I think everything else is just noise

Redebo

A simple 1GW data center? One gigawatt is pretty damn large and you don't need a GW for inference processing of AI. All of your other points are spot on: It's hard to cool things in space. But here's a handy engineering data point for you: About the same surface area that you need in solar panels to power the space-based data center is needed to COOL said data center via radiation. The front side of your solar panels will always be pointed at the sun, which means the back side of the solar panels will always be pointed at the blackness of space. I also agree that we shouldn't be putting the GPU's in space, but you know what makes a TON OF SENSE up there??? The network. Do you as an operator of a DC in the UAE want to have your data have to hop through other EU or UAE type countries before it gets back to say the USA-based data centers? Or would you rather fire it out of your site in the UAE, to your space-based network, and then have it fire straight back down to your land-based data center on the other side of the world? Space is the obvious choice for this in this context and I think that's what Elon is gonna shoot up there.

Altruistic_Finger669

People keep telling me that im crazy when i say that the US is now the biggest threat to the entire world. It wouldnt be shocked if there was a US-EU war within the next ten years.

marvin_bender

The US is an oil exporter. It uses almost no oil from the gulf. Asia was hit badly and they are probably bidding for US oil so they drive the price up. But US oil takes a very long time to arrive in Asia, so probably they couldn't buy a lot of it, this is why the price is still not ultra high. If the worst case scenario happens in the next few days and more oil production is taken offline, the USA will probably restrict oil export to protect the internal market. Then Asia and EU will be even more fucked.

tachyonvelocity

LOL do you even fundamentals? Why do you think EU AI is nowhere to be seen? If you think the bottleneck for energy is bad in the US, the EU is literally decades behind, with energy costs more than triple that of the US. All commodity shocks do is make the countries holding commodity abundance more competitive over the long term.

Honest-Capital-4472

$ES April 7: Tracking EU and US session’s first hour range incl VIX’s resolution of 25 as a follow-on from April 6’s note

Honest-Capital-4472

$ES April 7: Tracking EU and US session’s first hour range incl VIX’s resolution of 25 as a follow-on from April 6’s note

2AMTrader

Stop asking about low volume, its easter monday, EU markets are closed. Dump is tomorrow.

CardOk755

No. You don't understand. It had nothing to do with NATO. Russia (or, rather, Putin) doesn't want Ukraine in the EU. He doesn't care about NATO.

Canyon2022

The EU is giving a gift to Trump. The gift being, a reason why he can back off his insane threat. “I was going to destroy everything but our allies pleaded with me not to.”

Orange_Codex

The last oil, nitrate, and natural gas shipments from Hormuz reach the US and EU from April 10th-16th. Even though the US (and much of the EU) doesn't rely on Hormuz shipping, global contract prices apply equally to all consumers. We can conservatively expect 10-15% consumer price inflation. That's *without* Yemen yet closing the Bab al-Mandeb, because they haven't yet been attacked, but when they are we can safely double that. Oh, and Americans are currently carpet-bombing Tehran. I don't know how Trump missed the memo that terrorising civilians doesn't force a surrender (a lesson German, Japanese, British, and USian strategists have learnt several times over), but he's trying it anyway. No truce will be arranged any time soon.

D4nCh0

So a fully loaded USN carrier easily outnumbers the F16s & F35s RSAF fields. Unless you can convince PRC to provide similar security guarantees against USA. Hack the launch codes for all their USA fighter jets, or replace them. Along with all the U.S. based cloud services. That allows the island to run as an international financial centre. Something even the mighty EU is unable to do. Since British colonial days, our job has been to help white money in & out of China for our cut. To the tune of one of the highest GDP per capita worldwide currently. Maybe offer something feasible upon your geopolitical soapbox instead? We’d hate to slump down to your living standards. Thank you very much.

ToddlerPeePee

Nobody is telling you how FUCKED the global energy situation actually is right now. Everyone is watching oil prices. $109 futures. $141 spot. Headlines everywhere. Nobody is talking about what happens when this goes on for 15 MORE days. I have a friend who works at a major oil trading desk in Singapore. He told me last week: "We're not even quoting prices for April delivery anymore. There are no barrels to sell." That's when I knew this was real. Here's what you need to understand: Philippines — NATIONAL ENERGY EMERGENCY. Reserves under 15 days. Diesel prices DOUBLED. Pakistan — 4-day work week for ALL government offices. Universities online-only. Bangladesh — ALL shops must close by 6PM. Office hours cut to 9AM-4PM. Thailand — HALF the fishing fleet shut down. Can't afford diesel. China — fuel EXPORT BAN imposed. EU considering fuel rationing for 400,000,000 citizens Germany reactivating MOTHBALLED coal plants Slovakia calling to LIFT Russian sanctions just to keep lights on They're showing you "ceasefire negotiations." They're NOT showing you that Iran said it won't reopen Hormuz under a temporary deal. This isn't an oil crisis. This is a civilization crisis hiding behind an oil crisis. Credits: RyotaCalledIt

GreatSince86

You’re looking at Tesla through a 2019 lens judging a tech pivot by its legacy hardware sales. Here’s why the 'impending collapse' narrative you're trying to spin is missing the bigger picture right now: The 'Sales Slump' is a Product Transition: Yes, Q1 deliveries (358k) missed, but look at the inventory build. Tesla isn't 'failing' to sell. They are clearing the deck and refitting lines for the Cybercab/Next Gen platform launch. Betting against Tesla right before a mass market ramp has historically been a losing trade. The April 10th Catalyst: You mentioned the NHTSA, but you’re ignoring the Dutch RDW approval expected this week (April 10). This is the 'holy grail' for FSD in Europe. If Tesla unlocks the EU market for Autonomy, they just gained a high-margin software revenue stream that legacy auto can't touch. Energy is the Hidden Giant: While everyone obsessively tracks car deliveries, Tesla Energy just hit a record 14.4 GWh deployment in Q1. That division is scaling faster than the automotive side and carries higher margins. It’s no longer 'just a car company.' Optimus is no longer 'Vaporware' Optimus Gen 3 production officially started at Fremont this year. Tesla is currently deploying them in their own factories to solve labor bottlenecks. Once they prove the unit economics of 'Labor as a Service,' the valuation floor shifts from billions to trillions. Tesla is currently in the 'valley of dread' between its two biggest growth waves. You’re betting on the dip; the market is betting on the pivot. Stock is undervalued.

PlayerHeadcase

Another week or so until the "gap"- the space usually filled with tanker transports - reaches the US and EU and the real shortages begin. The "Gap", if the war ends NOW, will be at least four weeks long. ..and the war wil probably roll on for at least 2 more months, probably for at least 5. And thats all not even considering the damge to ships and infrastructure that may take years to get back to "normal". TL;DR who said they are inflated? This is the new lowest price you will see fuel for a year.

Charming_Raccoon4361

i said "straight is not closed" what a no life weirdo, alhamdulillah US will take all the oil and all chinese and EU hates can not do anything about , praise allah for free oil

Leaf4Lucky

Outdated? Nokia owns the majority of the Networking cables in the EU.

Horcsogg

Too late to get into some oil stocks or nah? Elliot wave predicts it should start correcting soon, and now this 'EU and Chinar negiotiating with Iran' stuff too...

wunderspud7575

Iran's offer to the EU to open up access to the strait for the EU, and hence for oil trade in Euros has the US administration utterly shitting the bed. If that ends up happening, that's the end of the petro-dollar, and collapse of the US economy. Bring it on, I am sick and tired of the US fucking up the world.

pwn4321

Laughing all the way to the petrol station ;) (oh wait I live in the EU and drive electric hahaha)

Jasmine7707

I think that they are supposed to receive an EU approval for their product this month. Could be related?

failgubbe

I think Vestas(VWS) has a good future, 2026 is a year of investments for the future so the stock took a hit but has showed strength again this last week. New factories in Scotland and Japan are being built but the big play here is china facing regulatory bans in England which potentially can happen in the EU as well and then Vestas is perfectly positioned to take a lot of those deals.

Key-Appointment1064

For context I’m a US/EU dual citizen and travel frequently between both. Europe is in shambles. Swiss francs are somewhat independent of massive EU regulatory hurdles and the ECB’s years of “zero-interest policy.” Europe has some very incompetent leaders who have caused Europe’s economy to become anemic. German car industry, which is a motor of Europe and Germany, is struggling like never before. Energy prices are the highest they’ve ever been since COVID and will continue to rise once the real oil shock hits and the last remaining GCS energy arrives in Europe. Aside from a bit a few gas and oil fields in Norway and UK, Europe imports all of their energy. Gasoline in Germany is currently close to €2.50/l, around $10/gal. Diesel is already past that. Hitting Nordstream was one of the worst decisions that the west ever made. Right now, we could have pressured Russia to the negotiating table. Europe needs Russian oil, and if the idiotic Zelenskyy US puppet state hadn’t blown up nordstream, Europe would be in way less of a mess.

cheeshomie

Neste Oiy. Renewable jet fuel from Finland which becomes mandatory to use in the EU over the next thirty years. No brainer in my opinion

genjky

Short BABA. Plastics going up and China is resorting to buying high premium polymers from EU and USA

Deep90

I don't think this is what they had in mind, but there are actually a number of considerations. For starters, Hungary is in the EU which would be subjected to GDPR laws. India has similar with DPDP. On the US side of things, military, defense, aerospace, government, and even healthcare (especially medicare & medicaid) all strongly prefer or require their data to remain in the US. That is just the data centers. American nuclear technology is also regulated. If I'm correct, you need to go past the DOE, NRC, and maybe the EAR. Which is not even considering what agencies India or the EU would require you to speak with.

wha2les

When the world turns to shit, the dollar is still the safe haven. Maybe it is a knee jerk reaction, but its not like you have any alternative currency. Chinese Yuan isn't able to fill the void, the conflict affects the EU very hard so the Euro is kinda out of the question too. GBP isn't what it used to be since the empire is no more. So the dollar is the only thing we have right now as a safe haven. The stupidity of America is definitely going to hasten the development of alternatives though.

NotMe357

"Rubio: If Europe won’t allow us to use the bases we man and fund for their defense when we need them we ought to close them down and remove our troops from Europe. If they get attacked by Russia we can discuss whether or not we have the time to help." EU Defence stock probably is gonna pump in the next few days.

phillydawg68

I'm buying property in EU. It's a bond

GaryTheSoulReaper

The euro ? Brexit - then you have other countries bitching about EU overstep (while happily taking EU money)

Subject_Delay5447

Natural gas prices in the EU are insane right now. Thinking about selling my own actual gas to cover my losses

ChollyWheels

Ultimately, money is energy -- you're rich if you can buy things, and things take energy to create. Ideally a dollar (or whatever) is a measure of the energy to create the thing you're buying. The Technocrats proposed pegging the value of a dollar to a quantum of petroleum for that reason. Current events are a serious threat to the EU on many levels -- Russia is richer and emboldened, and the EU is energy deprived, for starters. Meanwhile the USA is approximately energy independent.

RareGuarantee3532

630 tomorrow, Asia will dump, EU is mostly closed but will also dump, great down gap, then green candle

RealMcGonzo

I first noticed the Dollar Gloomers when the EU formed. "The Euro is going to kill the UDS!" They screamed, LOL. There's nothing magical about the Greenbacks that say it'll be king forever but to switch means to switch to something better. So far better isn't out there.

cristalarc

Because for as shitry as the current state is, most other countries are in worse position. Most of my friend circle had to leave Venezuela, and everybody who went to the US is in a far better position than those at EU / Australia.

Rock_or_Rol

China is calling for a ceasefire too US diplomacy is shit rn, but with EU and China brokering a deal, we might actually get a ceasefire With that being said, I don’t know what it’ll take for Iran to play along after all the assassinations and bad faith negotiations from the US and Israel. Still, China is their best way to come out of this. Iran’s threat this whole time is MAD, so.. I’d assume they’d prefer not to be destroyed themselves If we do get a ceasefire today or tomorrow, it probably won’t be for very long

RareGuarantee3532

Ok but what's the point of firing the generals that were opposed to ground invasion 3 days before the end of his deadline ? The former Iranian minister chatting with JDVance through Pakistan got killed in Bombing. All EU and Asian govt are planning and going live about long oil shortage. I mean is there any sign, appart from Mangotweets, that are showing any sign of peace ?

asfbrz96

No, they just tax the hell outta y'all in the EU

ian_coke77

A core Iranian demand is America leaving the region, and it's leverage to achieve this is holding America's host countries and their oil hostage via closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacking their oil facilities which they have in the past (mostly just signalling capability rather than permanent impact) So even if Saudi Arabia is able to produce oil despite Iranian attacks, the question is still how these Gulf states release their oil to the market. Saudi Arabia exported 6.2m barrels per day via the Persian Gulf but due to closure has had to redirect it to the Red Sea via Yanbu port, but this only recovers at most 3m bpd at max capacity. Other gulf states don't have this option. However, even this funnel can be targeted. Iran controls the escalation ladder. In such an event where Iran is losing the Hormuz bargaining chip, they still have Houthis in Yemen to create a double blockade at bab el mandeb, closing both the Persian gulf and the red sea. Houthis in the past have demonstrated capability to close it. Saudi Arabia could consider paying the Iranian Hormuz toll, but this legitimizes their domination of the gulf, funding a geopolitical and religious rival, and would likely result in US/EU sanctions. So in summary, Iran has demonstrated ability to strike all oil facilities in the region, maintains Hormuz domination, and can call upon Houthi allies to trigger a double choke point. Ultimately, I do believe the world will find a way to get oil to the market, by increasing production in venezuela and canada, and adjusting refining facilities and logistics for these feedstocks accordingly. But this isn't something that can be resolved in 12 months as supply chains are very inflexible in the short term.

rahul91105

Nah man, Iran is in the position to strong arm EU into paying toll for Hormuz and even lift some sanctions if they are feeling greedy. Trump on the other hand isn’t backing down after this (looks like a failure after losing two jets and needing to rescue soldiers.

digital-didgeridoo

Some EU countries are mulling limits on price gouging, since heating oil, and other energy is so critical. Pretty sure lot of countries already have this in place, unlike USA. India (and Pakistan too I guess) have slashed the taxes on gasoline sales, so the government itself takes the hit

v3ritas1989

I am from the EU. We kinda think rationally the first time we open our mouth. At least most of the time.

AllCapNoBrake

While nobody is ready for that convo, we absolutely need to kill the control/hold that the tiny hats have over the US/CN/EU/AUS. Then we can let the world know what the tiny hat's degenerate cousins also like to do to little boys.

wormtheology

You’re on fucking tar if you think 2030s are peak oil. The huge differences between the 2000s is that in post-GFC the US started to see the effects of their technological advancements in extracting oil and natural gas. The shale revolution allows the US to leverage itself as a maritime energy exporter. More supply potential will keep prices in check. This notion being pushed in financial media with “experts” that paper crude or paper WTI is going to see $150 a barrel is asinine. Remember that Japan, the EU, and the US all have money printers. People will not be allowed to get rich on an energy crisis the same way people aren’t allowed to profit off of a financial crisis.

WinterDice

It’s too bad the Air Force killed the Super Tucano purchase effort. What the US (or Ukraine or the EU) should do is find the kid that showed off the DIY $100 MANPAD system, hire him at $500k/year, and then have some professionals setup a manufacturing operation to pump out his system by the tens of thousands. Warfare has completely changed over the last few years and the West is way the hell behind the curve.

Synergiex

I doubt there will be an attempt to take it. He is stupid but hopefully not that stupid right? Or at least the advisors around him? Well that’s possible too since they are all paid shills of israel/aipac too Anyway if i were to bet this is what he will do: Analysis: Trump finally realized he f’ed up and trying to militarily take it will be a huge undertaking by itself, not just financially and death toll wise but also the image of this war in the world’s eyes. Way out: Trump looked for a way to have a deal. Iranians of course didnt accept and mocked him because 1) iran has the upper-hand 2) they dont have much to lose left 3) they dont trust trump and they dont believe this would be their last attempt. Conclusion: Trump cant commit to ground invasion especially right before elections and it will result in stagflation. So, since he is a big baby with a fragile ego, he will destroy everything with no respect to civilian life including power plants and rest of the infrastructure in iran. Iran will respond in similar manner to israhell and gcc. Trump will declare victory, and announce they are going back and tell EU to deal with hormuz strait closure by either paying up fees or opening theirselves Overall this will result in outrageous issues with lots of refugees as people wont even find water to drink, once infrastructure will be destroyed just like the zionists want. And it will become a never ending war between iran and gcc/israel. Israel will continue to expand.

Wafflez424

I do agree but at the same time things change very quickly in world politics, America would be easy to invade from north or south but we have friendly nations that we purposely keep weak and reliant on us for that very reason to provide buffers. The way things are going, the world might realign itself and if Canada + Mexico seek better relations with Europe and Asia versus US then it wouldn’t be that hard to overtime sneak troops into both places and build up an invasion force. Hell might not even have to sneak, US has bases all over the world, why not China or EU? Their both more then capable of it, just not really willing but with how the world is fracturing might not be a bad idea, what is US going to do? Fight EU or China over some bases which is perfectly reasonable, we can barely handle Iran at this point and don’t think even Trump would be stupid enough to go to war with most of the developed world at once. US used to have soft power that could have prevented the scenarios I mentioned but we pissed it all away

Cornwallace88

- Most likely illegal - Where not illegal, most likely frowned upon by your employer and profession - If your trading activity got picked up by regulators (who have tons of scans on irregular trading that occured right before big announcements) - it would be a slam dunk to notice you were an editor with access to insiders Haven't seen any responses recognizing that this differs by jurisdiction - which can involve up to 4 countries if each of the following were different: - Country of the exchange you're trading on - Country of the company you're trading - Country you're performing your trading from - Country you're a resident of Those could easily all be the same place if you were US-based trading a US company, but something to keep in mind. The safest assumption would be assuming the strictest rules applying. The US and EU are generally similar with a slight nuance on EU making things stricter as you dance toward the line of material non-public info. For your case, info from govt officials even about general economic action can absolutely still fall under this umbrella.

I_am_Nerman

I've seen EU 1st hand. No thanks. I've also been a patient in a Sao Paolo private health facility. It was as nice as anything in America. But my son got sick once hours outside of Sao Paolo in a very rural area. We visited a health facility that was very 3rd world. My wife, who is from Brazil, wouldn't even allow them to inject him to receive fluids for hydraton. The conditions were not sanitary. My family had 4 surgeries last year in the US. It was a crazy year. We basically had no wait times, had the best doctors and surgeons in the world using the best technology and techniques in the world. We only had to pay max individual out of pocket for the surgeries. It was a small fraction of the 100s of thousands that were billed.

nsfwnsfwnsfw33333

I think here in the EU people have woken up and the machine is slowly distancing itself from the us.

TJMBeav

Is there really any doubt how we open on Monday? Futes open down about 30 points on the S&P. All evening the futes drift lower, sniffing 0.75% on the slow and steady fall. Unexpectedly, oil prices drop 3% on rumors that France, in cooperation with the Ethiopian navy, was studying using small boat screens to protect convoys thru the straight. The Ethiopian navy has had success with throwing wet blankets to thwart I-rans flying lawnmower attacks In Lebanon the HOOT-ters unsuccessfully attempted to attack Jerusalem thru the air using Chinese weather ballon technology (as effectively demonstrated evading US air defenses several years back). IDF forces commented, anonymously, that the trick to shooting them down was to not lead the target to much. No successful attacks have been reported so far, but experts cautioned that it is early and these weapons only travel at super subsonic speeds equivalent to a large tortoise. Markets are falling, even as oil prices retreat, after reports that England plans a "muslim love" day on Easter Monday in an attempt to convince the powers in I-ran, that the English people feel bad for the poor abused elder clerics, and in no way endorse any move that originated in President Chumps nightly rantings. Markets appear to believe that if immigrant illegals do not also get a full days wages on Muslim Love day they will team with Greta and glue themselves in all traffic circles. Markets also are concerned that both Germany and Italy, while privately voicing support for the total obliteration of Iran, believe that EU law makes it illegal for them to form an axis, or alliance of any kind, especially if Japan also joins. EU legal experts estimate it will take weeks (or longer) to get a preliminary judicial verdict and any verdict would be immediately appealed by Hungry. In other news, casualties in Chicago continue to exceed those in Iran. Chicago's mayor pointed at ICE for the increased violence. "If you leave the homies alone they will just get drunk and pass out". Also, Governor Newsome made news when he called put Joe Rogan in a live broadcast. The governors where abouts are unknown, so he has not been able to respond to Rogans childish "bring on that bitch" tweet yesterday. Prediction markets currently have it at 99% no show for "that bitch". And that is the news/predictions

crisco000

We have no treaty with Ukraine. None. We had political promises at the time, but that’s about as good as the president who agreed to them. The only point you made that I agree with is us not starting wars of aggression. I just go further by saying we shouldn’t fund wars that have nothing to do with our country. It’s Ukraines problem and maybe the EU. It is not our war and no tax dollars should be spent on it.

Dave_The_Slushy

Here's my take on the negotiations right now between the EU, China, the GCC and Iran that are going on in London "So we are all agreed then. The next time that fugly skank of an oxygen thief talks at the UN, we just all walk out"

TimelyBodybuilder121

It will not care until most of Asia and the EU start to forcibly dump US stocks and treasuries to outbid each other for oil. The US is self sufficient when it comes to oil. Most of the EU, SEA, China, Japan, S. Korea aren't. These regions hold the most US treasuries and their pension funds hold the most US equity. Make of that what you will. Iran and Russia being under sanctions do not hold shit and they do not give a shit.

WrexyWrex

If all they wanted was to stop oil from flowing to China why couldn't they just tell Oman to stop sending oil to China? Why couldn't they approach UK, EU, Japan, South Korea, Australia and tell them they would now be buying China's share of the oil from now on? Even still, the US has massive leverage against gulf states, they could have easily just told them that gulf oil is not to be sold to China. Very easily. China basically told every country that runs their refineries that they could put taxes on any products used by their machinery and everyone fell in line. Just my thought is that our administration has no communication with our allies or something? Like do we have state ambassadors anymore?

wibble17

Out of curiosity, Where have you traveled to? It depends on what I have but I think I prefer the system in the EU, Japan than the US.

Unfamous_Trader

Can you imagine Microsoft trying to operate in the EU?

DeLu2

Idk man.. everything is against them. Only the strait of Hormuz is their weapon and each and other day we hear about officials from the top of their pyramid getting killed. Also NATO and the EU can’t keep buying oil at these prices forever. And they will not cut ties with the US either.

JoseLunaArts

Iran offered EU to pay for oil in euros. Dedollarization in action. The sin of Khaddafi was that he wanted to issue a pan-African currency that could compete with US dollar. This is why US went after him. The sin of Saddam Hussein was that he wanted eurodollar instead of petrodollar. This is why US went after him after he was an ally.

throw_mob

there wont be monopoly for sending **** to space by spaceX as all players EU,China,India will have very good incentive to keep that ability in their own country. i don't see that in current politic environment spaceX can trust to get more share, what i would expect that France and India start to raise their image in commercial side.

Garbage-Disposal-938

Yeah. Before the 2003 Iraq War US officials actually had meetings with UK and EU and planned it out first, got their cooperation in advance. For this Iran debacle, EU allies weren't even informed of it.

Va3V1ctis

The main problem regarding US Dollar in the future is, that most countries around the world (and I am not talking about just EU, Canada; Japan and Australia) see what is happening to Russia, Iran, etc. as they are banned from global markets through SWIFT system and then US Dollar and EURO or sanctioned through US financial might, and they look for alternatives. For years there was no real alternative, but now it looks like Chinese Yuan might be. Currently there is talk about using Chinese yuan for international trade within BRICS nations, and now Iran is demanding payments in Chinese yuan to pass Strait of Hormuz and countries are paying in Chinese Yuan and not in USD anymore. Main question now is, if more and more countries start paying in Chinese yuan, is US Dollar still the de facto global currency? What then means for US Dollar, it is anyones guess ... IMHO in time USA will need to give higher rates for bonds, and then pay even more for servicing its own debt, now it is over 39 trillions USD and raising faster and faster, in the past it took years for raising one trillion, now it took less then a year for 1 more trillion, and soon it will be less and less, and many economists are saying that even US growth wont be enough with such a pace. Tell me why should any country still believe in holding US treasury bonds and US Dollars if there is only question of time before US goes bankrupt?

Beginning-Luck-4026

I have my doubts on the EU and Asia paying a toll to a country threatening safe passage through international waters.

NotMe357

Soon or later he will join Putin to fight EU/NATO. Probably next year.

A55BAG

I was thinking something sexier like recovering a spy with [Fulton surface-to-air recovery system](https://www.google.com/search?q=Fulton+surface-to-air+recovery+system&client=firefox-b-d&hs=0PyU&sca_esv=fe05beb909c08b04&biw=1920&bih=919&sxsrf=ANbL-n4X7G1X_I6AVZo_GIXvociNJpbJAQ%3A1775217343886&ei=v6rPaZTjNYWQ1fIPs5q2qQE&ved=2ahUKEwiK3LeD0NGTAxWSJBAIHQfoL1kQgK4QegQIARAD&uact=5&oq=surface+to+air+recovery+system+ac130&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiJHN1cmZhY2UgdG8gYWlyIHJlY292ZXJ5IHN5c3RlbSBhYzEzMDIHECEYChigAUiAgAFQ8QdYon1wCXgBkAEAmAHqAaABxiGqAQczMC4xMC4yuAEDyAEA-AEBmAIzoAL2JMICChAAGEcY1gQYsAPCAgQQIxgnwgIKEC4YgAQYigUYQ8ICDRAAGIAEGIoFGEMYsQPCAgoQABiABBiKBRhDwgILEAAYgAQYsQMYgwHCAg4QLhiABBixAxjHARjRA8ICBRAuGIAEwgIWEC4YgAQYigUYQxixAxiDARjHARjRA8ICDhAAGIAEGIoFGLEDGIMBwgILEC4YgAQYsQMYgwHCAggQLhiABBixA8ICBRAAGIAEwgILEC4YgAQYxwEYrwHCAggQABiABBjLAcICCBAuGIAEGMsBwgIIEAAYFhgeGArCAgYQABgWGB7CAgcQABiABBgNwgIHEC4YgAQYDcICBhAAGB4YDcICBRAhGKABwgIEECEYFZgDAIgGAZAGApIHBzI3LjIyLjKgB_PyArIHBzE4LjIyLjK4B7EkwgcJMS45LjI4LjEzyAeaAoAIAQ&sclient=gws-wiz-serp&mstk=AUtExfA900bcqXs2wYHvgeiySxSBhe9tVzCBcVZHQsY-etyFmC2yhxkqMdkwwboMP7M0P2Z9hMimbqgFflRTF3p0l7rcOLQ9TFH1LtreDGtKLyo7p7mOR4BG3DkEYrdHIcK0EU0r9R6XlngBvJ8uJXp1hTyVAI8wpFLnZrMAl9cdv8opVXqdIauEyy7GDbTldwAMBdrMUFqrW4fEMjY5pzZcGL9LE-0PdGFSOmokFoPE5Q3LHd5O6HfaAykZRwdA0ZoS6_h2yY_ARRNIXYHZ8GOR0rVm&csui=3) (STARS) 😀

the_econominster

I think the issues are real If you look at the valuation and bring it in line with NVIDIA (using it's massive PE and it's 70% margin), you're looking at ~1.5T USD that is basically hot air. If you divide that over all EU and US citizens; assuming 10% is actively exposed, you're looking at 20K hidden destruction of wealth. It be the world's largest wealth transfer in history from the middle class to the 0.01% into a black hole. The problem is imho the amount of liquidity that is needed to prop this up. Even with a "small" free float, the liquidity isn't there. We know liquidity is a problem with blue owl doing a soft default as we speak and BOJ reversing the carry trade. Heck, the yield curve is steepening and 10yr rate is up, even the Treasury can't tap into the liquidity. Also; look up what happened when Aramco went public; it basically sucked the markets dry for a full Q, and Aramco is liquid gold AND a dividend play. Musk will never pay out shareholders, he's a growth guy that wraps the last innovation in the next one. He's like the monorail guy with a Twitter megaphone. Finally the business model does not make sense. All xAi founders have left Grok because none of them want anything to do with LLMs in space. The energy envelope is tiny. Due to radiation you're 2-3 generations behind + once launched you can't switch out the hardware. FPGAs are super vulnerable so that's not an option and ASICs are obsolete once you launch. Musk wants do do COTS but we know this is a problem. SEU for 3nm and 5nm hardware in space are already brutal. Then there's starlink which has congestion problems. If it grows into its valuation, you'd go back to DSL type speeds; which is backwards + there's this small problem called the keppler syndrome. The valuation only holds if you extrapolate the current launch capabilities to a global military fully vertical monopoly (and even that is a stretch; that's basically saying China, India, Russia and Europe don't matter). Remember Musk is stubborn and has a known history of ignoring basic laws of physics (FSD, curevac, spaceship1, solar shingles Tesla SEMI). He's a loud guy who started rich, takes insane risks, got lucky and rode the EV tailwind then saw an arbitrage opportunity at NASA and exploited it. The guy has a long long history of zero-sum grifts. If anything this is a massive tailwind for Eutelsat which has a far better track record and is actually ran by credible people...

fabian_677

Or the EU makes a deal with Iran to get oil and gas through the street of Hormuz and distance themselves more from the US as the US is seen as an unreliable partner that starts wars without a plan

Apprehensive_Law7629

A French ship passed through Hormuz this morning. Looks like EU leaders understood it’s more reasonable to deal with Iranian leaders than with Trump. If more ships go through the strait during the weekend then we are going to have a nice well ahead…

Aggravating_Ad7022

EU should start getting in to hormuz and buying crude oíl in Euros and give the big old middle finger to USA, and when everything id finnish send EU companys to rebuild Irán. EU need to get far away for USA shitshow till we are fully green

Apprehensive_Law7629

Not a good moment to be allies of USA (if they still have some apart from Israel). Hope other EU countries do the same. It’s easier to deal with Iran than with Trump.

t3ch1t

We are entering the lowest demand part of the year for natural gas and we have a ton of it in reserve. The peak of summer and winter are when the demand for natural gas is highest for cooling and heating. I just checked and our export capacity for gas is at its limit. New infrastructure would have to be built to meet demand and that will take time to build. This will limit the effect on the US price even though the price in the EU is 3 times as high. As for your second question the answer is they will only do that if they absolutely have to. It’s a catch 22. Oil is a backup fuel in the event that gas is unavailable or too expensive. But if both are expensive you either shut the power off or pick the cheaper of the two and electricity gets real fucking expensive. Short term the US price is insulated from the conflict. But the longer the war goes on and global NG prices stay elevated the more likely we build out infrastructure to export more to higher paying markets. Also every AI data center built greatly increases the demand for power. Which means more NG will be needed even in the off-peak seasons. Which will raise the price.

zimon85

Which proves once more that the stupid deal the EU made was just a humiliating dumb thing. It's supposed to cap tariffs at 15% but hete he is back for more. Either you stand up to bullies of you end up being punched every day

Intelligent_Land_419

EU has to get involved in that timeline. Not with US military collaboration but rather legitimizing a tollbooth for Iran. 

Diligent_Fondant6761

The problem is that there is no better alternative! As you see everything else can Destroyed by USA within days ( Iran, Venezuela, EU etc.)

Consistent-Bake-5666

brent 125 soonish, trump has 3 full days+ 1 for the EU markets

Swimming-Positive-55

TLDR Our allies buy our bonds and we’re losing allies They’re our allies not cuz they’re our buddies, but because we share mutual interests, and combine our financial, military, and tech systems to impose sanctions, establish control, and provide systems services and processes Iran now has the mid east, Japan and others by the balls and declared US bonds as “soaked in Iranian blood”. Also our military, tech, and fin services are being targeted We’re pushing for control of Greenland and South American countries, most of the issue is Greenland and Canada, as the EU and NATO are drafting war plans to fight us over Greenland. Meaning any shared financial, tech or military services are being threatened to be used against them Look I’m a dipshit I’m ngl, I’m in no place to give financial advice, but the basic foundation of American foreign policy and economics abroad is being ripped out by the roots rn. If we don’t get Hormuz back, if we continue to threaten and pull out of nato, there’s simply going to be less and less reason to do business with us. Notice our allies not allowing us to use their bases and such. To quote the Dutch, when trade doesn’t cross borders, soldiers do

NotMe357

It looks like TACO is making a bet that Iran will be force to make a deal with him by Bomb the hell out of Iran and EU/NATO will also be force to "fix" Strait of Hormuz by join this war or else they can't get oil down since USA's oil mostly don't go through Strait of Hormuz so it doesn't hurt them compare to EU/NATO. When TACO says that he "doesn't care" about Strait of Hormuz is just a lie so he can scare Iran into make a deal with him. Lets see who wins this bet.

GrossFleshSack

Need some quick advice. Does the strait have progress towards opening over the weekend? EU moving to secure it? Iran allowing ships through with a toll fee? Hold NTR over the weekend or sell?

Mal4kh

🥭 reaching a deal. When has this ever happened before? Ah, right with Ukraine, China, EU, Greenland, India, North Korea. All big wins.

ShittyUsernane1222

we all know SEC, CFTC and FDIC is missing in action in the US. Mystery low volume candles which counteract rational market pricing mechanisms which either fuck over bulls and bears keep happening. Market movements are extremely sus, especially with rising oil prices. could we wsb regards collectively agree to call up EU, international financial regulatory authorities / regulators and Interpol.

Conscious_Act3595

prediciton spy calls and oil put. Iran makes deal with EU and trump says mission acomplished eassyyy

Dossi96

I am actually surprised that it didn't went to $10 by now. No one in the EU is buying cars after what went down the last few years with Elon. Asia has better and cheaper manufacturers. The US couldn't give two flying fucks about the environment. Who is teslas target demographic by now?

Me-Regarded

Did you miss the news that pumped the market today??? EU said 40 countries are meeting next week to work on a solution to the strait issue. They are looking to allocate military assets as well.

TheMericanIdiot

Love it! Hope more GCC and EU counties do this! Stick it to the NeoNazis!!!