EU

NotMe357

After Iran, TACO will go after Cuba and Colombia. Then he will target Greenland again and this time he will use an excuse like NATO did not helping him with Iran so he don't need to respect them anymore. Thats why Greenland should belong to him now. He will also use that as an excuse to get out of NATO too. A few months later he will be surprise why new NATO and EU not buying armerican's weapons anymore. Russian, Israel and USA will team up and start WW5. Far....far away North Korea still didn't get any invitation to World War 😕

Subspace13

Step 1. Elect someone who will sow chaos and confusion. Step 2. What geopolitical event will cause maximum damage to Western nations? Iran war. Step 4. Attempt to move military assets across multiple nations to the Gulf nations. Cause exposure. Step 5. Remove sanctions on the pretext of war. Step 4. Collapse EU nations/Nato and US-allied Asia nations (Japan, Taiwan, S.Korea, etc) via economic chaos aka Oil/Gas and then ultimately everything else. Step 5. Something something Taiwan and EU before end of term. Step 6. Profit

NotMe357

Luckily I'm from EU.....

marcelsounds

I just learned about this and very happy that Europe is, again, going forward to build a better place for its citizens. I don't know all the details but this makes me remember when EU announced they regulated the phone and tablets chargers. I know this is totally different but it shows that they're tired of being controlled by outsiders.

PaperHandsTheDip

It could - but the effects of this drop are due to energy prices spiking. That's caused by oil -- which is not coming down while the strait remains closed. We have barely felt the effects of oil yet. The first EU country started rationing fuel this week, expect others to start as well. Oil is upstream of basically everything... if the cost of business suddenly doubles everywhere, the economy is going to hurt.

Gom_KBull

*"There is no way this will end up being ww3."* **Military Involvement** * *USA* * *Israel* * *Houthis* * *Iran* * *UAE* * *Saudi Arabia* * *Kuwait* * *Qatar* * *Bahrain* * *Lebanon* **Military, Intelligence and Logistical support** * *UK* * *Russia* * *China* **Collateral nations** * *Cyprus* * *Azerbaijan* * *Jordan* * *Iraq* * *Oman* **Rhetorical involvement** * *Ukraine* * *Finland* * *NATO + EU + UN* * *Romania* * *Poland* * *Spain* * *Venezuela (lol)* * *India (on fence tilting pro Israel/usa)* # OK BRO

slimyoldbastard

> they will be better off if they started accepting more workers to be bus drivers and restaurant cooks especially if they're from culturally more similar places like southeast Asia, but its still going to be a big shock to the system. Which is what they're already doing, cmiiw. What Japan has been doing is trying to replace some blue-collared work with Robots for decades, then they also used foreign labour (through the controversial "internship" and other programmes). I still think that the more ideal system is somewhere in the middle of what Japan is doing and what the EU is doing too. Unfiltered immigration only adds more problem to your aging or unproductive population. But close-to-zero immigration is also not really the solution. What Japan is doing right now seems okay (with trying to fill the gap in their labour force with SEA labour), but it's definitely just a stop-gap. Japan is slowly trying to fix its labour laws, working culture, childcare environment, etc. but it's going to be a slog to go through a future where the societal change they want can be achieved. That and maybe they should just make more animes, music, and J-Dramas about wholesome families and making babies lol.

PaperHandsTheDip

180 is possible is why. Analysts have stated that 200+ is possible if the strait remains closed. We are a bit "insulated" to the impacts of the oil shock (gas prices go up a little bit) but the real world consequences are just starting to hit. IE: Slovenia is the first EU state to start rationing fuel. Reserves in other EU countries are starting to run dry. The energy crisis this has created is going to be the worst we've ever seen. Oil isn't magically going to come down overnight. [https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c77m4zx6zvmo](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c77m4zx6zvmo)

csakish

I'm pretty sure it will be a bummer in EU/US as im these areas it is kind of crazy to use any components coming from the PRC. Russia/China might release an even greater wave of agents, hacking and misimformation, given the chip is viable at all.

Va3V1ctis

Tell me where are those solar panels produced? In your country? Same with batteries? Yes, they are made in USA, but most of the components are not mined in USA, but in ...? Recycling batteries, solar panes, ... , you read to much green hype. If you have the cost of solar and claim it is the cheapest, please add to it cost of battery and cost of overbuilding those solar or wind farms, as we need energy also through the night, through winter, through cloudy days, etc., not just on sunny days. On paper the numbers look phenomenal for renewables, but in praxis, the grid suffers for it, and they need alternatives when there is no sun, wind, etc. Germany per example is leading EU country in terms of renewables, but their electricity is one of the most expensive in EU, plus lots of days they buy coal energy from Poland and nuclear from France, as their solar producers are bellow capacity due to cloudy or rainy days, however on a sunny day, their energy production is so plenty they pay others to take their energy as the grid can not handle excess production.

RD_006

What do u think of EU dumping Visa and MC for domestic alternative?

Opening-Photograph68

Read a recent article about Ford reentering the F1 gig with Red Bull sponsorship. In the article Farley talks about fossil based fuels, EV plan at Ford in USA and EU and how the company is changing with regional markets. Very interesting, Farley is very smart and is looking to the future - toured China automotive plants and blown away by their efficiencies. He’s willing to reevaluate way of building, design.

TheGodPePe

Down about -.67% YtD, so not crying. But a big chunk of my portfolio is EU defense, which I expect to see a surge in vaule after we reached the bottom. Currently hedging my portfolio losses with Gas and Oil futures as well as Fertilizer producers like Yara and K+S. Plan to sell those gains to buy the EU defense dips as evaluations are starting to be in buy territory again. I expect many of these companies to have anywhere between 15-30% revenue increases YoY for the foreseeable future.

No-Delivery-7048

You can aign up for robinhood (EU) using my referral, we ll both earn 50 euro. You can then start to refer people yourself! https://linktr.ee/BestReferral07

FlipZip69

EU is going to have a real bad time. They introduced Windfall Taxes in 2022/2023 with a minimum rate of 33% on "excess profits" (those 20% above the 2018–2021 average). This resulted in a capital flight of 60-70 billion dollars from nearly every major gas producer. The statement by Shell (CEO Wael Sawan) "When you have such volatility [in tax policy], it fundamentally saps your conviction around your ability to see the returns... therefore you move your capital to the areas where you see healthy returns at lower risk.". Pretty much every major producer said the exact same thing and pulled out investment and moved it to other countries. That short term gain has resulted in the EU being are far higher exposure to rising NG prices and no longer having the local production to help it out.

iratezero

They get universal health care in the EU and they have great roads in Germany and Italy where driving is a pleasure so you can argue that by and large the extra tax on gas is being put to better use there. In the UAE they pay less than $1 a gallon for 103-107 octane, plus they get universal health care and have zero income tax and the roads are also well maintained. Doesn't apply to the economy in America.

realityhiphop

You missed the part where the GCC and EU bribe Trump with a nobel piece prize, Big Mac & Diet Coke

MethylphenidateMan

Trump bails on Iran after first videos of American troops getting shredded by FPV drones hit the Internet, just straight-up says he won and withdraws the ships, Gulf states have to make peace with Iran themselves. Putin falls out of the window before Christmas. OpenAI goes the way of FTX in the first half of 2027. Orban loses elections, his successor reveals just how much Russian meddling there was in Hungarian information space which in turn causes the EU to freak out and go ham with regulations on tech. Gold goes to 6000 this year. Nobody from the files sees jail time. Tesla makes no visible progress on either self-driving or the robots but the stock price stays in the stratosphere.

___redacted_

MSFT is a money printing tech sovereign that is a multi trillion company and STILL has not fully matured, still has completely nuts quarterly growth and with no reason to slow down. I keep seeing posts that EU and others would move away from MS enterprise products... brother, to what??? GNU, lol?

OffGridBid

OP, who are your tech plays in EU?

WickOfDeath

A chimp imposting for a silver back Gorilla won the election. 50.0000001% of amreicans voted for him. the world has to bear him. He said he loves the stock marksts going up but he actually doesnt care, it seems to be worse, he doestn even understand the caus-effect chain of his actions... so it will be. Dow, SP500, Nasdaq100 10% down, 10% more to come... Rose garden 2025 can repeat. In April 2025 this was just fear, and markets got up again. Thins time it's real, and what has fallen to -20% in 4/2025 it could do this in 4/2026. I personally keep my EU centric mid cap stocks, they're only 6% down, my kids acocut is 2% down... I cant say that I am a bad investor at least not when I follow a conservative approach in wealth management for my kid.

TomatoSpecialist6879

I was gonna be nice until you sprouted that revisionist bullshit, are you genuinely retarded or were you just not trading then? The war stopped being the main cause after it took a year to resolved all the problems the war brought up. 1. That's why market started crashing early on "inflation rumors" as institutional traders were pulling out record cash. Then we later found out it was because US Q1 GDP for 2022 posted its first decline since covid, EU also posted stalled GDP growth rates. So insiders got out early, while retails had to found out the hard way when the numbers were announced in April<-- First crash that lead to a 2 month long -20% crash . 2. Russia started selling oil via dark fleet in international waters, which crash the price despite sanction. In response OPEC and OPEC+ decide to hike production in June to counteract ships rather risking sanction to buy below market rate oil than from gulf states. The oil stabilized by June which curbed fears of inflation growing further, hence the recovery till Aug as market started coping on rate cuts. Which was hilarious because we had a hike in July and market responded by rallying because JPow was dovish and they thought the hike meant the system is fine. 3. Then we had another crash in Aug through September as JPow was insanely fucking hawkish and straight up said more rate hikes possible at the Jackson Hole symposium, the entire rally before that was on copium hope that Feds would not hike rates. This was when the legendary reported dead eyes meme were born in this sub because that retard pissed JPow off enough to straight up just drop the "No rate cuts for rest of the year." line. SPY ended 2022 -19% btw. It's a multifaceted issue but the GDP numbers were 100% due to the surprise invasion that nobody expected, followed by Europeans pulling out of US markets in record numbers due to economic situation worsening at home. Then BLS commissioner William Beach said the supply chain shock the surprise war brought upon absolutely changed everything about how inflation went in US. This was a war that barely affected us. Strait of Hormuz was actually the saving grace during that period, now it's the one that's putting the globe in a crisis. US market the most globally invested market in the world, now other countries are pulling out trillions of dollars to deal with issues at home the same way Europeans did in 2022. As I said, you can double down on calls early while downplaying everything just like the retarded permabols did in 2022. Just don't cry like them when you regret going in too early and either get theta fucked, or have too little funds to deploy by the time the market is back to rallying.

Murklan12

I’m not betting on Europe being strong and perfect, I’m betting on Europe being pushed to change. The EU is already moving in that direction, with strategies and investments trying to depend less on others. This will benefit certain companies, it actually doesn't matter where they are located as long as they do business in Europe.

Separate-Tough-9075

Zero Iranian oil or Iranian backed USA oil is the point. Either way the EU, Russia and China are going to have some problems soon

Chrizzle87

Well, European companies move out of the EU over excessive bureaucracy and excessive taxes (energy, labor, and income). In particular, Germany decided to go wind & solar only, and consequently the most innovative nuclear power companies had to move away (e.g. Dual Fluid Energy Inc, Marvel Fusion). Your idea sounds creative, but I definitely wouldn't do it. IMHO the climate is straight out hostile for industries and AI tech.

Overhaul2977

I doubt most people realize that Japan, South Korea, etc. import massive amounts of oil and LNG (90%+ in some cases) and can only go off the stock piles for awhile. EU’s public also can only withstand the high prices for so long with their lower incomes compared to the USA, combined with them having a limited stockpile. The US has a decent while before mid-terms, they can sit it out and other nations will need to step up once their stockpiles reach the ~1 month from depletion, with Asia likely stepping up sooner because of the distance needed to cover for their navy. This is vastly different from the 1970s, the US won’t face any shortages, just higher prices. Australia is already facing shortages due to panic borrowing and Philippines declared a national emergency. If the US waits long enough (likely 1-2 months), I could see most relevant nations (besides Russia and China) being forced to create a coalition to reopen the strait. It would be interesting seeing so much of the world working together, similar to Operation Desert Storm.

Feltzinclasp5

Your question is totally ambiguous. Are you asking about divesting from US defense companies into EU energy and IT?

imunfair

The problem with politicians is 99% of them have too much ego to admit when they're wrong and change course. They have to find a "win" in every situation, rather than just apologizing and doing better. So for big policy issues like Trump attacking Iran or the EU sanctioning Russia they can't find an off-ramp that allows them to change course without looking like fools, so they just keep repeating the same mistake like robots stuck in a loop.

chuckrabbit

Libya was started by the French and the British. Most of Libyan oil was headed to the EU. We joined early to support our allies, but it wasn’t our fight to start.

thedabking123

God help us if Iran says that- the west and i do mean ALL the west would invade instantly and they wouldn't hold back. Iran would be signing the deathwarrants of several large economic blocks - they can't be that stupid. Ukraine just damaged a good portion of Russia's oil- presumably to prevent EU from capitulating and siding with them as a preemptive move.

ShittyUsernane1222

my controversial opinion: the only difference between whatever the the EU is doing and what US is doing is just that EU can hide some of their regarded actions behind academic sounding language. France and UK are justifying a military intervention to Iran with "freedom of trade, supporting middle eastern allies" meanwhile US justifies it with "Iran bad" the underlying action of intervening in iran is bad regardless of the language used to justify it. EU sane-washes and supports US actions, provides diplomatic cover and support. EU Commission acts rn no different than how🥭 would wearing an academic gown and vore-ing thesaurus. therefore any bearish thesis on the US necessarily applies to the EU too.

BatteryAcid420_

Yeah because it makes no sense to do research after the decision has made right, it‘s just over at that point, the EU stops existing. Or it has such a good purpose that nobody needs to research it. 1.5 B€ is less than you expected because that‘s a reliable figure and because EU politicians are cheap. And as long as politicians can vote other politicians to have the authority to change constitutional laws in member countries it will only get cheaper to fully corrupt this entire continent which is why it‘s absurd to frame the „what is the EU“ question as stupid in any context, at any time, until the EU inevitably stops existing.

xjcln

Add petroleum export restrictions and the US might get off essentially free? Except for the oil companies, but who cares about them. Just take our ball and go home. EU and Japan/Korea would be on fire, but I don't think that would affect Trump's decision-making at all. If Iran literally has nobody to negotiate with and no way of hitting the US at some point they'd have to settle for a ceasefire eventually. You are right that it'd look like capitulation and Iran would probably take the opportunity to push for a nuke though.

Somewheredreaming

China needs a strong US/EU for export. If US market fails, they dont buy stuff from China. If EU also struggles neither do they. But even with just US having troubles its really bad for China. So simply said China is the last place you wanna be invested in. Outside the US and EU markets China has nowhere to export to that has enough demand. Plus the EU runs down preparing trade (many actual meaningful trade deals in the last months) and tech infrastructure for that Scenario. (Wero to taker over and develop alongside Visa/Mastercard till its big enough or in case of emergency) Wont be great, thats for sure but from all players the EU probably has the best chances, especially given it tries to network with other players on the World stage.

UglyT

What the hell are you talking about? You're babbling nonsense. Try and actually put a coherent thought together before just mashing the keyboard next time. I never said there weren't lobbyists. Honestly them spending 1.5bn is far less than I would have expected. And what you mentioned there isn't foreign policy. So I picked two different countries, well of course I did - I was demonstrating how they can choose their own foreign policy. Would be weird to choose two countries with the same policy to demonstrate that wouldn't it? What it does do is disprove your statement that the EU runs foreign "politics". And the reason why someone said that search was stupid was because the spike was after people had voted to leave the EU. Voting on the biggest policy change in 50 years without understanding it is absolutely fucking stupid.

Careful_Response4694

China still gets about 20% of their oil. Iran is not the only middle eastern country they used to import from. Even then, Iranian shadow fleets can't be relied upon if the war escalates. If this drags on two more months I would expect the EU to massively bid up saudi/US/african oil, due to spr depletion, and potentially even Russian crude due to sanctions waivers. At that point India has limited purchasing power compared to the EU, China, and tech-producing East Asian states (Japan, SK, Taiwan, Singapore).

ThePre-FightDonut

I think people need to realize the geopolitical implications of what has happened, and that there is functionally no way for the US to regain regional hegemony in the Gulf absent a protracted and costly land invasion. This is our Suez Canal moment. Coupled with the fact that the US has now bombarded Tehran and killed Iranian leaders in the middle of diplomatic talks three times in the last two years, even if the US said "let's end it," there's insufficient credibility for any short term ceasefire, and also no incentive for Iran give up their leverage on the Strait unless they're given guarantees that are politically and Institutionally untenable to the US (cessation of hostilities by US/Israel, no more weapons to Israel, complete withdrawal from the region, Iran can pursue their civilian nuclear program and military ballistic missile programs, etc.). Therefore: (A) Current scenario continues? Oil up. (B) Iran engages in bilateral agreements with China/Russia/India, passage in exchange for security or economic guarantees, tolls everyone else, and keeps the US/EU/NATO out entirely? Oil up. (C) US invades in an effort to open the Strait/reestablish military hegemony in the region? Oil up. The administration can talk all day, but they can't print barrels.

BatteryAcid420_

Propfreading would be the part where a guy on reddit doesn‘t repeat the „haha UK dumb“ narrative when that‘s a part of the following lore: EU makes sure Brexit hurts UK. EU media pretends UK is dumb for leaving EU. If you remember damaging EU countries is literally the opposite of what the EU is designed to do then it‘s easy to think about it for a second.

BatteryAcid420_

If the EU isn‘t a benefit for all, then why would googling „what is the EU“ be stupid under ANY circumstances? It wouldn‘t. You don‘t even see how you set up the frame yourself. Understanding what the EU does is relevant, pretending it‘s already understood and positive is as ignorant as having no clue about it.

BatteryAcid420_

„What makes you say there would be no wars in Europe without the EU“ That‘s such a hilarious statement when you‘re pretending to understand EU politics. You‘re clearly repeating misinformation that was spread by lobbys and you haven‘t spent any time thinking about it. „Very different policy of Hungary“ Well first off you‘re pretending the exception is the rule here, good riddance. Secondly the foreign policy the EU is following is not supported by the will of the people in member states. It does not matter how you describe this, the EU is taking up responsibilities that were never granted to it. And you have to be INSANELY ignorant to put what I‘m saying into question instead of questioning the narrative you believe in after they literally granted themselves legal immunity for bailing out corporations that probably have representatives spending a lot of time in the EU parliament which is called lobbyism. ##Estimates say there‘s 25000 lobbyists in Brussel spending 1,5bln € annually, you have to be a clown to not question this institution or at the very least its‘ potential harm.##

Smart_Implement

Well maybe you should check Russian state representitives from federal channels or any gov who atleast once a week for 4 years speak how different eu countries should come back to russia because they were once part of the soviet or russian empire aka can check any of their statements on all baltic states/poland(putin himself said stalin created poland and it should be taken back 2 years ago) , they spoke exactly like trump and even harsher because A they did say all that and acted in the past towards Georgia/moldova/ukraine/chechnya in the past 30 years. Idk how competant you are on the topic or your eyes are blind but so much already happened / said and was done that i got no clue how you can say that US is the real enemy and not russia , what a clown show , you had tens of drones at random EU countries falling on your soil including baltics/moldova and poland tens already , their gov openly speaks about it and laughs at your face , the only difference is that trump doesn't wages a war with European country for 4 years like russia does nor does his strike drones landed on eu soil only his orange mouth and his obession with tariffs , and if 1 day he decides to physacly invade greenland rest assured russia will invade from the other side and use that moment.

Plus-Professional-84

Maybe you should stop drinking battery acid. What you wrote makes absolutely zero sense, and I have a very very strong feeling you are someone who has no clue about the EU’s institutions nor their respective mandates/authorities/responsibilities. Learn how to make sense before spouting nonsense you illiterate muppet

UglyT

That was just word salad. The EU doesn't "take charge of foreign politics". What does that even mean? The EU taking charge of the politics of a "foreign" country? Makes no sense. If you are trying to say that the EU takes charge of its member's foreign policy then that's also bullshit. Witness for example the very different foreign policy of say Hungary and Ireland. Clearly the EU isn't a benefit for all. Literally nothing in the world is a benefit for all. I don't think anybody claims it is literally perfect for everybody. And wars in Europe without the EU? What makes you sure there wouldn't be?

BatteryAcid420_

I feel like those people are more intelligent than anyone who doesn‘t have a healthy amount of doubt for the media. Because latter think there will be wars in Europe without the EU, they think the EU is a benefit for all, and they are even further from understanding how the EU taking charge of foreign politics for example is a nightmare, whereas if you‘re clueless about the institution you can quickly get to the conclusion „it‘s the united states of Europe, and it‘s neither a guaranteed benefit nor a really necessary institution“.

Samjabr

I appreciate what your saying. I really do. you make solid points. I was going to do a DD this weekend on the war and what my gambling strat is - here's a bad attempt at a tl;dr We don't need hormuz. seriously - **Only 2% of US oil goes through it... 2% -** (you can google to check) - and that 2% would likely take a few months to redirect permanently. The reality is the US can produce all the oil we need within 6mos to a year. Remember, we are currently operating the lowest number of rigs on record. And are producing more oil than ever before. Adding a few rigs would pretty much cover the gap. So, yeah, Hormuz - The rest of the world needs it a fk ton more than we do. It doesn't mean that we feel zero effects. Proof? Since the war began - the costs have risen: EU = +100% Asia = +150% US = +20 \--- Heavy Crude? - Venezuela has entered the chat. Refineries? In the 80's, because of a fear of running out of oil (pre-fracking and other technological leaps), the US Southern states were developed to receive heavy crude from Venezuela and Mexico. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/16/why-access-to-venezuelas-heavy-oil-is-tremendous-news-for-us-refiners#:\~:text=%E2%80%9CMany%20of%20the%20US%20refineries,process%2C%20and%20export%20Venezuelan%20petroleum. Ultimately, it costs us an inordinate amount of money to keep the straight safe. But if the people that are most affected by it aren't going to step up (They will), I 100% expected Mango to tell them go pound sand.

Tokyogerman

There were people googling "What is the EU" AFTER the Brexit vote People can't be helped.

AssistanceCheap379

The US also showed how aggressive they are by first striking Iran. This has pushed other countries away from the US, in part because of this fiasco and in part because US allies can’t rely on the US. There is a big decoupling happening among US allies and trade partners to move their supply chains to being more diverse and rely less on US imports and exports. It’s slow, but it’s happening. Canada has probably gone the furthest, pushing to improve trade with the EU and decreasing their high reliance on the US while maintaining important infrastructure that the US relies on as a way to maintain leverage without facing extreme economic meltdown in case of the US deciding they can do whatever they want regarding Canada. But more long term and more dangerously, this is also pushing medium sized nations across the world to pursue nuclear weapons. In the next decade, we will see a whole lot more nuclear weapons programs as a way to deter threats to sovereignty by larger nations that believe might makes right

Jbball9269

If the Fed holds rates steady and UK, BOJ and EU all hike we should have a MONSTER rally

thegoodbadandsmoggy

I’m Canadian so I get that weird overlap of both medias plus some European focus due to large populations/EU focus

Dorkasteri

Well he could taco himself out of this, but he needs something to save his face. He needs to be able to say ”I brought peace to the middle east and destroyed their weapons of mass destruction”. But still the damage is done. The US has spent huge amounts of money for absolutely nothing. The EU and Asia are fuct because the inflation caused by this war. It still smells like global recession.

Powerful_Quarter691

Pardon my french but your post is shit. Many of the EU countries are not only reliant on Middle East crude oil but also their gas supply and we are already being warned of potential future supply constraints only 28 days in this war. On the other hand we are restricted/prohibited from Russia’s oil and gas supply so basically we are fuc*** due to the 🥭 having small 🍆 and ego.

Academic_Lock_1699

And again, this US pm dictating prices now, hence the sudden move. EU is relevant from 2am to 4am 

Academic_Lock_1699

This is US pm dictating now. EU is 2am-4am

Daymjoo

Well yes, because the EU gradually shifted from its position of preventing America's westward expansion to a position of spearheading it. + The euromaidan and the purges that took place around that time. 

Inevitable-Scheme-38

Yea, when China + India + rest of Asia come slamming on that door Trump will need to cut it out. This could be the catalyst for a geopolitical alignment where the EU becomes non-aligned like India positioning China as the same level as the US. Disastrous for the US, long term.

NotMe357

Not only that but he wants all oil in the world. Thats why he invade Venezuela and next is Cuba and Colombia. If he block all the oil tanks in the Strait of Hormuz then he directly go in war with not only China but the whole world. Right now he can make an excuse its Iran who block the oil and not USA. If you follow him then he keeps indirectly asking NATO, EU and China for help so he can't take the risk to make them angry.

Beginning-Luck-4026

EU and Asia will hit the max pain point before the usa when it comes to oil needs, they will need to act before the US or Iran, and they will force a resolution, one way or the other. This is probably included in the calculation of the war plans. Not saying it was a good idea but the US doesn’t have to make the first move. Also if people are now seeing how much impact Iran can have on the global economy, do you really want them to possess nuclear weapons? North Korea has some form of nuke but not a biggie since they can’t hold the world economy hostage.

MegaPorkachu

Nah, there is no suitable replacement app for texting thats cross platform rn. Discord is for gamers so non gamers wont touch it, Slack is for workplaces, Wechat is china so most US/EU wont touch it.

Ecstatic_Wheelbarrow

At this point I just hope the rest of the world is watching and learning from this. Every country in the EU is moving more and more towards this and this is their future in 10 more years if they don't sort it out.

liverpoolFCnut

Iran can claim anything it wants. Even Iranians won't take yuan once the war is over except for purchases from China. Gulf Kingdoms abandoning petrodollars is the end for them. For all the big talk, lets not forget IRGC generals have billions invested in the middle east, EU and the US, they are not about to give up their luxuries because of a brief war.

WattMotorCompany

What kind of ignorant comment is that? Germany alone is the 3rd largest economy, and the EU combined the second highest GDP after US and before china.

IvoryTowerResident

Well starting this war is already utterly apocalyptic for US but much worst for Asia/EU. I am not Trump and dont know how his administration thinks but one way of getting stronger / USD petrodollar dominance is making sure everyone realizes how much they need the US. Need US for protection, for LNG/Oil, it is just a way to exercise hard power. Again speculating here. Trump is giving up way too much for not having a greater objective. Elections are like done, his approval is in the toilet and his dream of rate cuts are looking less likely. I dont like the assumption that politicians are dumb. Their interests just does not align with yours.

surfingforfido

Such an idiotic take. Who’s going to join WW3 again? Exhausted Russia who can’t even take over a much smaller country, which is dragging on for 4+ years now. Lebanon (Hezbollah a terror organization) and Iran so far. How about China? What’s in it for China to enter in an armed conflict to protect Iran? Are they going to try and take Taiwan? Doubt it. Is Mexico and Canada going to join in? What about the EU? So again, I’m perplexed on how this will turn into WW3. Such ignorance and stupidity with the original comment.

Groomsi

"EU/NATO, Help me from my disaster mistake."

momsickle

So RDDT dumped 10% mostly because of the EU age verification measures, but how many teens do you know that use reddit?

Al-phabitz89

The EU is a BAD ally 👎

cloud_cafe

Compared to EU markets you guys need at least -5% to catch with us

Key-Speaker007

Where EU customers can switch from Azure, AWS and Google? To Alibaba Cloud? Europe is so far behind in IT that they still don't have solutions even for yesterday's problems

miata_only

EU didn't seem to care about the "devastating global consequences" of war when it was France's oil in North Africa that we invaded Libya for.

x2eliah

Well this certainly is a sign for EU/europe to wke the fuck up and become independent

TomatoSpecialist6879

This should be the sign for EU to intervene and blow up Treasury's short position

BWright79

Germany has recently said it will no longer use Microslop products and the EU will probably follow soon. There is a huge anti-US sentiment overseas. Check out /r/[BuyFromEU](https://www.reddit.com/r/BuyFromEU/)

StrongCelery

Why does the EU not just buy oil from Iran or just pay €2m toll per tanker for the time being. That may mean approximately €0.04 increase per litre which is a damn site less than this folly is costing us at the minute.

BeginningEar8070

Indra, Leonardo, and Thales are indirect because their 6G revenue comes through sovereign defence contracts, not telecom operator contracts- 6G networks for military, border control, air traffic management, and critical infrastructure: The EU's €900M+ SNS JU 6G sovereign programme specifically funds non-US architecture. Indra, Leonardo, and Thales all have seats on those standardisation committees.

Commercial-District1

EU says Russia gave Iran intelligence to ‘kill Americans’ in Middle East The EU’s top diplomat has accused Russia of providing intelligence support to Iran in the Middle East war to “kill Americans” calling on the United States to increase pressure on Moscow.

LemonTeaCool

Voting for Trump was probably a win for the world, but not so much for Americans. If you think about it, Trump has actually somehow got EU to unite each other, made NATO members to increase military spending, and rerouted trade alliances outside of US.

hardrock527

Ehh Microsoft is fine, they are just caught up in every single tech sector crashing one after another. Nobody knows what is actually Microsofts core business so they get hit with SaaS, AI, and now EU lawfare fears on top of their consumer software issues. I fully expect it to keep tanking short term until the next tech bubble starts up and they get all the investors piling back in as a value play.

Whipitreelgud

MSFT has gone too far with personalization as the guise for collecting data for ad revenue. This has alienated a percentage of the consumer market and is a nightmare for corporate administrators attempting to retain control of their data. Regulators in the EU have concluded in some instances that Microsoft’s telemetry implementations did not meet privacy laws. The EU is far more concerned with this than the US and rightfully so. This realization of telemetry overreach has a serious impact on revenue. Add too much spending/investment on AI and you have another impact on expenses. And, war is probably changing how companies look at cloud services.

Wide_Air_4702

Is there a European competitor that EU people are switching to to move away from US Big Tech? Gemini: Yes, EU organizations and users are increasingly switching to European alternatives to Microsoft to boost digital sovereignty, primarily adopting [Nextcloud](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Nextcloud&mstk=AUtExfDhnrfV4eVCOBpqqiwDo5jbY9-g--6rXUazO6kbdHTIQ3BMDBCiQ6KOMw2HPbF4EyxaIGbEHKs9fODI6xO2QOTD8WCwh7VV-7N2IVsOxGz6AJ6uxSHrdfBzofcrKZKDAkdIhw5HzB9T99tDvdPoAL5Ur7Qgcibikrq8QNxGSkEZiHY&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi89OO4z72TAxXlGEQIHe_9CuEQgK4QegQIARAC) for collaboration, [OpenDesk](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=OpenDesk&mstk=AUtExfDhnrfV4eVCOBpqqiwDo5jbY9-g--6rXUazO6kbdHTIQ3BMDBCiQ6KOMw2HPbF4EyxaIGbEHKs9fODI6xO2QOTD8WCwh7VV-7N2IVsOxGz6AJ6uxSHrdfBzofcrKZKDAkdIhw5HzB9T99tDvdPoAL5Ur7Qgcibikrq8QNxGSkEZiHY&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi89OO4z72TAxXlGEQIHe_9CuEQgK4QegQIARAD) or [LibreOffice](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=LibreOffice&mstk=AUtExfDhnrfV4eVCOBpqqiwDo5jbY9-g--6rXUazO6kbdHTIQ3BMDBCiQ6KOMw2HPbF4EyxaIGbEHKs9fODI6xO2QOTD8WCwh7VV-7N2IVsOxGz6AJ6uxSHrdfBzofcrKZKDAkdIhw5HzB9T99tDvdPoAL5Ur7Qgcibikrq8QNxGSkEZiHY&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi89OO4z72TAxXlGEQIHe_9CuEQgK4QegQIARAE) for productivity, and [OVHcloud/Scaleway](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=OVHcloud%2FScaleway&mstk=AUtExfDhnrfV4eVCOBpqqiwDo5jbY9-g--6rXUazO6kbdHTIQ3BMDBCiQ6KOMw2HPbF4EyxaIGbEHKs9fODI6xO2QOTD8WCwh7VV-7N2IVsOxGz6AJ6uxSHrdfBzofcrKZKDAkdIhw5HzB9T99tDvdPoAL5Ur7Qgcibikrq8QNxGSkEZiHY&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi89OO4z72TAxXlGEQIHe_9CuEQgK4QegQIARAF) for infrastructure. New, tailored options like [Office.eu](http://Office.eu) and [Proton](https://proton.me/blog/european-alternative-us-tech-survey) are also emerging as dedicated privacy-focused replacements

met_art

EU approved the trade deal with US. I was hoping SPY would go up on such news 🫩

RareGuarantee3532

Finally a world war not starting in Western Europe, thank you EU for making us a poor, weak and irrelevant part of the world

doolytokki

hodl my may sept puts and wait for oil shortage to unravel in EU/Asia laugh at 🥭

NOT1506

There is no such thing as EU GAAP. And what exactly is the policy change that made it in line with IFRS?

Chicagoroomie312

When huge, deep markets make big moves you have to accept they might know something you don't. You are projecting too many complex relationships as static. For example, to paraphrase doomberg, the market is going to figure out what the marginally least profitable use of oil and gas is and curtail that. That will plug some of the 20% gap. If the strait stays shut and prices pop over the medium term, that incentivizes producers, especially US shale, to ramp up as much as possible. Sure, there are physical limits to export capacity, but the market will figure out the least productive uses weighing on current capacity and price those out too. As another example, Ursula van der Leyen could see EU LNG storage redlining and walk back Russian oil sanctions (and signal to Kyiv they can't blow up any more oil infrastructure if they ever want another loan). Unless you're a genius and have inside sources in the Trump administration and IRGC, don't make asset allocation decisions based on a geopolitical call here.

Party-Ticker

"don't defend yourself and stop killing our geopolitical enemy who said multiple times the EU is a mistake and we're degenerates" >not just tankers, but also shutting off the oil pipeline to Hungary for instance, which is a direct negative impact on the EU. Poor babies.

Few_Slice_3514

The EU is not as dependent on oil and gas from these countries as one might think. I was surprised to learn that only a relatively small percentage would be affected. Asia, on the other hand, would face the greatest challenges if the situation escalates. Japan in particular would be highly vulnerable, as more than 90% of its imports come from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Triotroitori

Yea ofc and stupid EU buys their stuff because it will be outdated so fast. :( And if they just would have a layered approach and be the integrator of all kind of sensors and effectors.. that would make your argument so invalid. but damn... oh wait..

myrainyday

Don't forget that US has its own Resources. It exports oil and gas so for own needs it's covered. EU is in a much worse situation, since buying energy or minerals from Russia is not a good option. I expect inflation in US, EU but this whole situation might hit EU a lot worse from what I see. Some individual states are worse. But again, I am taking it all from a Macro perspective.

CharmingDarling02

Shorting the company that the EU just made their primary 'No-Fly Zone' provider is a bold strategy. Let's see how that works out for your margin call.

Lammerikano

here we go (petrol downward thrust) government jockeys apparently finally started working (11:15 EU time) lol.

L44KSO

Ironically the far right in the EU Parlament is still talking about how bad green energy is because it is making our prices more expensive. People really live in their own little worlds.

imunfair

It's more a question of not biting the hand that feeds you. They're screwing with the economy in the west while demanding that we fund them to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars a year - not just tankers, but also shutting off the oil pipeline to Hungary for instance, which is a direct negative impact on the EU.

CreatingBlue

I would agree with you, if this situation played out for an extended period of time. But it is far more likely that the US or someone else sees all this shit playing out as well and does something about it before it gets to your doomsday scenario, than your doomsday scenario happening. Could your theory play out? Sure. But what are the odds the US, China, EU, etc get involved and resolve the war one way or another? Or Iran suddenly backs down like they have so many times in the past? Pretty high. Lotta people with a lot of money tied up in this that don’t wanna see economic collapse. Most likely, we see a significant dip that some people buy, and then things get resolved.

ScarletHarpy93

The first waves of layoffs in the end of 2022, beginning of 2023, were about pulling back from WFH, eliminating low performers en masse, and testing to see which functions broke and which were necessary for continued functioning of the businesses. The second waves of layoffs in the end of 2023, beginning of 2024, were about consolidation and elimination of WFH completely and forcing people back into office real estate whose pricing threatened to become an albatross on corporate balance sheets due to changes in US GAAP in 2022 to bring it in line with practices in EU GAAP-equivalents. This third wave of hiring is targeted attrition at bad bets made in the last decade which haven't played out. Most of Meta's cuts are in the Meta piece, with some trimming of remaining fat in social. Amazon cut places like Devices, Games, drones, etc. that were either supposed to be expansions for their AWS money maker, or cost savings for their online store. Similar stories in the rest of big tech. A lot of these bad bets are being closed to free up revenue to pay for massive commitments in CAPEX towards AI infrastructure. None of these cuts are AI driven yet. If you're in big tech, you're probably watching dozens of small pilot programs internally to automate jobs away, but very few of those have had a full year to run yet. You can fully expect that if any of them show real returns in scaling up productivity or reducing the need for people, that those will be reflected in ongoing cuts throughout the next two years.

Daymjoo

>Greater military spending over the past few decades might have deterred Russia from invading Ukraine, something which economically would have been beneficial. Might have. But what it's more likely to have done is it would've caused Russia to invade Ukraine even sooner. According to Merkel and Hollande, what caused Russia NOT to invade Ukraine was preventing its accesion to NATO at the 2008 summit in Bucharest. But we're getting way, way off topic here. The likelihood of something happening is not a different discussion from the mathematical calculation of whether that thing is worth it. It's an intrinsic part of it. Not to mention that the statement that 'Russia not invading Ukraine would have been economically beneficial to us' is... a complicated statement, to say the least. It's only economically detrimental to us because we're making it that way. If we started throwing hundreds of billions at Iran to help against a US invasion that would be economically detrimental too, but that's not a good argument for attempting to build military deterrence against the US. >And if the NHS gets a pass because of keeping people productive, what about the 85 year old granny who had a stroke? Her productive days are well behind her. My argument was never that 'all political decisions are about min-maxing productivity', it was about the fact that 'European armament' is virtually unrelated to 'European energy security'. If anything, making guns costs energy and resources, and is thus detrimental to EU energy security.

typhon0666

To quote the European Commission's ReArm Europe Plan/Readiness 2030 which is to invest 800billion in rearmament: "To uphold EU sovereignty, numerous MEPs highlighted the importance of boosting competitiveness,enhancing strategic autonomy, and ensuring secure and independent access to critical raw materials and energy supplies. " The EU is planning ahead to the near future so as to be effective in combat deployment with highly industrialized nations. You could think of it as being able to safeguard access to resources and energy supplies it currently relies on.

Bossanova72

If you did any research on this topic after the dust settled you know that the big banks realized they were the ones with the majority of the counterparty risk. So what did they do: They greedily took the fees from Burry one the one hand and then slow played Burry to buy time to get out of their positions on the other hand. I think GS was the worst on both sides, but still coming out of it better off due to the bail outs. The funds they couldn’t liquidate were marked to 0 as losses and then the bailouts came. Except for Lehman. The sad reality of all of this BS is the big EU banks didn’t have as much knowledge of the CDSs (time asymmetry) and they needed larger bailouts. Yes, the American taxpayer bailed out many large EU banks. In these scenarios the last to sell end up with the worst positions and no buyers left in the market.

purplewarrior777

Buying EU means it least that money goes back round again!

Daymjoo

Except we're **not** willing to take the inflationary effects. The rise of the far right is a direct result of that. Both AfD and the NF in france, as well as multiple governments in smaller EU countries, are moving right fast and hard. And the right has no interest in rearmament and, for that matter, in war with Russia. I think you're making my point for me rather than the other way around: Russia isn't even able to make significant ground in Ukraine. It has no business fighting a war with us. We're fine. All rearmament does is create more insecurity on the continent. Do you imagine Russia will just watch us militarize ourselves and not react? What's to keep them from arming even harder themselves? After all, if there is a necessity, there is a way to finance it, right?

Garbage-Disposal-938

I remember a time when economists said that interest rates could not go below zero. And then it happened in some of the EU countries.