EU

Official05

It might be US officials bluffing to involve the EU

CoughRock

i mean their demand is literally stop bombing us and offer security guarantee. EU would need to stop their "allies" usa and israel from bombing. Kind of hard to do with two mad man going at it unrestrained. Kind of hard to negotiate for opening while the bombing still on going. It's asking them to give up their only leverage while the enemy is at the door knocking. It's a war of survival for them.

Vanillas_Guy

The EU is basically the last bastion of customer and property rights. GDPR is probably the greatest piece of legislation in years. By tying the fine to a percentage of income, companies actually have to take legal obligations seriously. Laws stop becoming suggestions and actually start becoming a financial threat which forces CEOs and boards to take them seriously.

NotMe357

There is also repot that EU or NATO leaders is in talk to find a way to open Strait of Hormuz, so if they can find a way to work with Iran this week then oil will dump and the stock market will pump. Anything can happen in this market lol

NotMe357

If TACO send boots to Iran then sell because its gonna be a bloodbath. IMO, in this market its best do day-trade and sell anything that pump until there is somehow a confirmation about peace on Iran war. There is report: "The Pentagon is deploying thousands of additional Marines and three warships to the Middle East, per Reuters" I think TACO is going all in on Iran now. The only one who can save hin is EU and China and none of them want to join this war.

rieux1990

Because Iran also faces pressure from neutral countries like China, India, the EU, etc to tell them to keep the strait open. Nobodies wants the strait closed and nobody can handle it being closed for a long time, not even the Iranians. Well, maybe except the Russians.

CaskJeeves

🥭 seriously just Leroy Jenkins'ed Iran out of nowhere and is now gonna pull out like a college kid without a rubber, and then blame the fallout on the EU lol It would be hilarious if it wasn't gonna result in $200/barrel

BlueSonjo

Any of the many non-US ETFs, in whatever brokerage you use.  EU, Emerging Markets, Asia, Canada. Whatever brokerage you use will have an ETF tab where you can look these up.

Ashamed_Ad_8365

Well if EU has any ambition, they will make a deal with Iran and the Gulf States to buy their product in EUR and to hell with the dollar.

Revolutionary-Fuel25

Iran asked NATO and the EU and UK to get involved, but they refused — which was actually Trump's goal all along. Then, when Iran responded militarily in the Gulf, it drew those countries into the situation anyway — but through the disruption of oil exports. This created pressure on the EU and China due to oil and gas shortages and rising prices. Now, all those countries are begging to participate and get involved, but Trump is in no rush to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

8--2

This is what I see as the most likely outcome unfortunately. Every other country not already implicated in our bullshit is going to do whatever they need to in order to protect their national interests. If that means the EU, China, India, etc. get all buddy buddy with Iran and trade right of passage through the strait for a commitment to stay out of the war and/or place sanctions against the U.S. (such as not trading oil with them) they're going to jump on it.

tachyonvelocity

There are major implications for this: Did Trump just surrender control of Hormuz to Iran? That means Iran can control or selectively allow ships through in the future, unless EU/others provide their navies (not going to happen). This is extremely beneficial to China as it's possible some oil trade will actually be settled in Yuan.

StrongCelery

“ A little learning is a dangerous thing “. The EU is not a single country the US is. The EU does not have an independent military and thus cannot murder people worldwide in our name. There is no single person in Europe that can send us to war on a whim to stay out of jail for being a pedophile. And there is no single person in Europe that can threaten our allies with invasion because they want to get their hands on minerals contained beneath said country. So size and population is immaterial, I suggest you read some good books on the politics of Europe it may help you.

Vykrumsky

That's his point we look at it from the US dollar, but because OP has to convert it to EU he loses money, cause the US dollar is worth less and is continuing to decline in value. Here in the states the S&P is up, but when you liquidate to US it doesn't go as far as it did a year ago thanks to tarrifs and wars inflating goods. And don't tell me inflation is at 2-3% cause I have fucking pulse and know my grocery bill has skyrocketed well above 2-3%

sarges_12gauge

And for people who use that currency instead of other currencies? It’s like telling French people that they’re morons for using EU markets because the Swiss franc appreciated against the euro

DizzyDentist22

Yeah. EU stocks aren’t really doing any better right now. US stocks are down -4.72% YTD, while EU stocks are down -6.45% YTD. All of Reddit has told me to rotate out of US stocks and into EU stocks though lol. Wonder how that’s panning out for them right now

shartpants187

The US is twice the size of the entire EU and has 75% of the population size. Do people of France coordinate protests for people in Italy? We also have state laws, which is why I live in a blue state Not saying there shouldn’t be more outrage, but it’s naive to think of America as just another country

LarryStink

I think this is about as good of a take as any.  > Here is the main reason of this stupid War. Chevron & Exxon said NO in January to Capex in Venezuela With $60 Oil. But just 24h after Iran War and especially with Oil at $100 a Long Queue of Big Oils is ready to please POTUS. The Plan is to endures Iran War at least for 1 year...The time needed for having Capex deployed in Venezuela. > EU like during RU-UA will now have no alternative to buy A LOT of Dollars to pay Oil from USA. Fix US Trade Balance via IR War. trump not worried about dollar going doing and he said "I can make the dollar go up and down like a yo-yo." And yesterday announced no intentions of oil export restrictions. If high oil prices were a concern they would be limiting exports like other countries. But they are not. They want higher oil prices and to export to countries affected by this war.

SteakGoblin

Odds for the EU or USA rate? Off a quick search, EU rate is significantly lower than USA rate currently.

teh_herper

#BREAKING: EU NATO members preparing to discuss the approval of a tactically worded letter, during office hours

ThatOneRedditBro

Idk man. I know trump gets a lot of shit but he just took out Venezuela like it was nothing to help secure oil. Im pretty sure the EU is in it with him on Greenland to build up troops there to put pressure on russia on making a miscalculation. Its all political theater and I assure you NATO and the US are working together. Its all distractions. We wouldn't go in unless we knew we could take them out quick to avoid being pulled in. I doubt China wants to get involved and there's likely aome deal with US and Xi on giving them Taiwan in exchange for Iran's regional power.  I bet Iran shits the bed and surrenders either before Kharg invasion or immediately following.

tika_dengu

There is no incentive to help if Oil prices stay around $100. Ban exports of Oil, decouple USO from Brent. Watch how EU countries will come sailing when Brent shoots past $500.

RareGuarantee3532

yesterday F35 hit in Iran, BB lyin about not hittin more oil facilities, pdf poopin on Japan, Iran not ready to chat, Oil reserves release over if it lasts more than 10 days, Oil pumpin, Gaz pumpin, EU dumpin. US clients gettin poor, rich people not wanting to be US clients anymore, US gonna dump, mi put gonna pump.

Irishbros1991

People are also forgetting that Asia need that oil alot more than us so they will pay through the teeth for it and drive the prices up so yes China can now hurt the American/EU economy this way while still getting cheap oil from Iran and Russia...

moorhound

Alright, this shits about to blow the fuck out by Monday. EU's not riding along with this shit, and they're ready for a pivot towards Asia/India. Dumbass Kahanist extremists got control of Israel and dragged the US into the war they've been trying to get since 9/11. The fucking *RUS/UKR war* is about to come to and end due to this fuckery, and no major player in the world is going to be strongly supporting the US/Israeli side. If you're leveraged long, *get the fuck out*. Hold your 401ks; this shit will hopefully blow over with an impeachment, but I suggest diversifying into Japanese semis (ATEYY/TOELY/CAJPY). American markets are about to get long-term fuckin wrecked. IP is a mobile commodity, these guys don't care where the fuck they're doing work as long as it's the right place, and with the climate the US isn't the right place. Permbols; *get the fuck out or lose your goddamn money*. This Iran shit is getting bigger than your pea brains can comprehend. Bessy's floats aren't gonna hold this past April.

LarryStink

Trump yesterday "no plans on oil export restrictions" they want higher oil prices. And they want EU to buy it, from us. 

LarryStink

I think this is about as good of a take as any.  > Here is the main reason of this stupid War. Chevron & Exxon said NO in January to Capex in Venezuela With $60 Oil. But just 24h after Iran War and especially with Oil at $100 a Long Queue of Big Oils is ready to please POTUS. The Plan is to endures Iran War at least for 1 year...The time needed for having Capex deployed in Venezuela. > EU like during RU-UA will now have no alternative to buy A LOT of Dollars to pay Oil from USA. Fix US Trade Balance via IR War. > trump not worried about dollar going doing and he said "I can make the dollar go up and down like a yo-yo." 

DMT1703

Oh wow the EU indexes are going for a recover. Russian still green thou. Will next week be green ? Or this is just a hopeful bounce that will going for drop next week?

_Doomer_Wojack_

EU LEADERS: "WE SHALL NEVER HELP OPEN THE STRAIT, OUR GREEN TRANSITION IS SACRED" EU LEADERS 2 DAYS LATER AFTER ENERGY PRICES JUST DID A 10X AND YIELDS ARE MOONING HARD ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A 2008 BANK HEEMING: "ACTUALLY ON SECOND THOUGHT MAYBE WE SHOULD HELP OPEN THE STRAIT REAL QUICK LADS PLS SEND THE NAVY THX" LMAOOOOOOOOO these paper-handed Eurocucks folded faster than a French surrender flag. Your entire continent's "diversified" energy portfolio just got absolutely margin called into oblivion while Deutsche Bank is sweating bullets praying the ECB printer still works.

daedalus_dance

The EU has a stronger industrial base than the United States by virtue of internal developing economies to outsource too. Whilst the US is having a huge debate about re-shoring manufacturing in the EU much of it is happening in Poland, Romania, Bulgaria. You don't know this because its unlikely you have access to the Polish Stock market but it massively outperformed the United States last 5 years. Its covered here: [https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/09/17/europes-great-stockmarket-inversion](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/09/17/europes-great-stockmarket-inversion) The US believes growth is tech, yet its currently panicking about critical resources, manufacturing, labour regulation, healthcare. Your economy is too lopsided and benefitted greatly from the tech boom but its failing to create growth for the population and you all know it. Besides that, when you add in the UK, Switzerland, Norway, Turkey - the European economic region has greater GDP than the US. That's precisely why the trade war with Europe was highly misguided at we are at year 2 without a tariff deal :) Paul Krugman has a good exploration of it all here - whether or not you agree with him its worth looking at the counterpoints to how Americans currently assess what an economy *should be doing*: [https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/europe-v-america-whos-really-winning](https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/europe-v-america-whos-really-winning)

emperorjoe

Yes... these are long term agreements that are done with the US government the foreign government and the independent companies. They aren't able or allowed to jack up the prices because it's Tuesday. They need US approval to sell, US approval for technology transfer, US approval for the industrial base build out, US approval for who gets what orders and when. The US government manages foreign military sales as it's a vested interest of the US government. > Tho given how Trump is trashing our diplomacy im not sure there is much room for them to do so. The USA is 44% of the world's foreign military sales, And it's not changing for decades. For let's say Canada to buy something other than a f35 or something there needs to be an alternative, and spare industrial capacity for that alternative. There are a handful of nations that have the base military demand to actually fund the R&D, build and maintain the industrial base and keep production running for decades. Once again taking billions of dollars in capex to build out that Industrial base and supply chain. There are a handful of nations capable of even participating in FMS while everyone else is forced to buy from those players. > What about EU mil comp? Virtually identical. No nation is tolerating a military company doing anything like that. They would be nationalized, or they would go to another company.

ValuableOven734

Is this true if they are selling abroad? Tho given how Trump is trashing our diplomacy im not sure there is much room for them to do so. What about EU mil comp?

superstevo78

diversity your stocks with some EU and asia funds with a mix of value and growth, put some into cash 5% just in case you need to withdraw, and get a few broad bonds in different government bonds versus private sector... and buckle up, buckaroos. it's going to get weird.

bigbossmitch

They both are on the brink of revolutionary cancer treatment. Both are financially stable to complete their trials. IBRX has their drug approved for use in Saudi Arabia and EU, but are also working on getting it approved in the US. Their revinue increased by over 700% in the last quarter, and there are many other reasons. Definitely worth looking into though. Also, fuck cancer!

Douchelampe

Well, tbf the current industry and economic problems are not only because of high energy prices. One could even argue that since the price of natural gas dictates the price of electrical power in the EU, and Germany only net imported a small percentage of energy, that the lack of nuclear power plants is not the biggest problem for the german industry right now. Sure, it would've been better for the environment to prolong the usage of nuclear power for a few more years, but from a cost perspective the exit was not as bad as some make it out to be.

skymagic

EU LEADERS are *not* fucking around rn holy shit 🫣

pineapplekiwipen

it's EU they're about to send a letter threatening a strongly worded letter

wmzula

Thoughts and prayers, but from EU

2020isgreat

EU LEADERS: STRONGLY CONDEMN IRAN’S INDISCRIMINATE STRIKES AND EXPRESS SOLIDARITY WITH AFFECTED COUNTRIES so you gonna do something about it or???[](https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/2034744604638290204)

skymagic

> EU LEADERS: STRONGLY CONDEMN IRAN’S STRIKES AND EXPRESS SOLIDARITY WITH AFFECTED COUNTRIES 👀 *oh...shit!* SPY 700 by open 🙌

2020isgreat

The good news is the EU gets fucked more than us

Special-Remove-3294

How would they be regarded? If USA blocked oil exports then like 50% of the world's oil supply would be off limits for EU and AFAIK almost all of that remaining 50% would be getting eaten by China and other East Asian nations. EU would literally have no energy if both US and Hormuz were blocked. Like it would not even be a matter of high prices but a physical huge oil deficit. We would not have a choice if this happened. Tbh at least the right wing regard weirdos would have their way and go back to the "good old times" as they call them.....ahh that sweet 2 hours of electricty per day and rationing of everything😍

lOo_ol

The Israeli government welcomes carnage. It radicalizes their population, justifies a constant state of war, and triggers all sorts of financial aid from the US and the EU. A bloodbath on all sides is pretty much their one and only playbook.

Careful_Response4694

Operation Epic Desert Storm with a coalition of the USA, Israel, Japan, South Korea, China, Britain, the EU, India, the Gulf states, South Africa, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina! Awesome!

EmotionsInWine

I totally agree, even if inflation going up again and no cuts, it's still surprising that everything dropped except oil, especially so heavily! Some stated in Feb that the top was in, so that this leg could have maximum reached the top again before dumping. It didn't even reach that point, so now we have lower high. Is it done? Tough to believe since the world mess is still favouring precious metals, but in short term I agree that dollar is getting strong. Luckily I didn't trust holding in this phase but am still losing something in March, then crypto is showing some energy lately and somebody who rode some coins for sure made good gains especially in last week, but it still seems to me to be short rallies since bottom shouldn't be in yet, especially with ongoing war. Indeed if Trump finds a quick way out now that seems any disagreement rising with Israel, things could turn quickly, but short term inflation is guaranteed and economies are already f\*\*ked, especially old countries like Japan, South Korea and most EU ones. So I think that we will still see bull run for gold and silver but probably only because of general situation, not because of the chart! My expectation is that it may take time to see gold above 5600...

D74248

After all these years he still does not grasp how trade with the EU works. Clearly in his mind he still sees each country as a different trading partner. I don’t think that we should give him any benefit of the doubt. He is just an emotionally driven, fundamentally stupid man.

UsernameTaken_123

Electricity prices in Germany/EU just spiked 250% since last week lmao They get a 60% of their electricity from Nat Gas/LNG

Independent_Term5790

EU natural Gas up from 25 to 62. This is gonna go really south soon

TheEagleDied

You are arguing a bunch of nonsense while ignoring main point. The EU is uniquely unqualified to get through the next ten years.

Bravadette

Yeah. They got 40 million from the EU and apparently theyre doing ethanol-to-jet fuel. Also profitable now.

waterpup99

Where is the DB DD? Oh. You'd didn't do any? Shorting Deutsche Bank based on the 2023 "solvency crisis" playbook is a risky bet in 2026. Back in 2023, DB was a "recovery story" vulnerable to contagion; today, it’s an "execution play" coming off its most profitable year in nearly two decades (€7.1B net profit in 2025). With a 14.2% CET1 ratio and €260B in liquid assets, its reserves are significantly deeper than during the Credit Suisse collapse. The recent 7% dip isn’t a solvency red flag but a specific market "stress test" of the $30B private credit portfolio disclosed in the March 2026 annual report—a portfolio management claims is 73% investment-grade with conservative 65% advance rates. While the Iran conflict has spiked Brent crude to $115 and created macro-uncertainty for European growth, this is a systemic headwind for all EU lenders, not a DB-specific death spiral. In fact, higher-for-longer rates driven by Iran-related inflation could actually bolster DB’s net interest income, provided the "shadow banking" sector doesn't see a correlated default. Shorting here assumes a 2016-style liquidity trap

SpotlessCheetah

The US needs a regime change... ok so who wants to stop Iran or other terror states then? Seems like nobody will do the dirty work. EU is finally waking up. You're gonna be mad when EU decides to take action when threatened by calling them old guard imperialists? Who should do it? The U.N. is toothless. I'd like to actually hear what your pick would be.

FxkCanA

I think solar will boom next. Yes nuclear is great. But the earliest possible reactors we’re hearing about are 2030 and thats doubtful. There are EU and Asian countries that have been less affected by natural gas prices right now thanks to their investments in wind and solar.

OscarCapac

Watch the EU launder their losses with taxpayer money if that happens.  Other that that, I completely agree with the DD, and Germany's economy is not doing really well to begin with. Since they closed nuclear plants and can't buy cheap Russian gas anymore, they have no energy. Polish companies are buying out their entire industry as we speak

ieatballoonknot

80% of their exports go to Asia so there’s some argument this attack fucks over China. 8% goes to EU so there’s some collateral damage.

elpresidentedeljunta

They´ll probably just renunite Persia and greece under Athens traditional rule. This would also shift any costs for reconstruction to the EU,

timeforknowledge

I'm from the UK where do you want me to put money I earn every month? The EU and UK economy grows half as much as the US. China economy is fake. Russia is screwed, Africa, ok I put a percentage into emerging markets. I really can't fathom people that denounce the US markets you can hate trump or any politician but until they do what the EU has done and destroy their economy with woke rules and regulations you're just an idiot for not putting money there. The potential for growth and stability cannot be matched by any other country in the world. Really think about that.

VenomBite214

EU can easily come back to Russia and beg. No tankers needed. They have 2 pipelines!

The_Albertino

EU will have to wake up eventually, they don’t source their own fuel and these facilities keep getting hit

Designer-Muffin-5653

Would probably be the end of US EU relations and also lead the the closure of all US bases in Europe.

proflashlol

probably end game for Trump seeing that hes been vocal about EU not having with the Strait

creemeeseason

I brought it up here a year or two ago and got laughed at... Poland is to Europe what Mexico is to the US. Newly free market (since the cold war) with relatively cheap labor. They do a lot of manufacturing for the EU, is my understanding. Pretty long runway, however they do have that history of constantly being conquered by neighboring great powers..

calm_discussion_3500

Poland is being mandated by EU to lower its deficit from 6.5% to under 3%. Plus they have their own currency, not on Euro yet. Very risky IMO.

Cajun2Steppa

> Iran has the US empire by the balls. This is their leverage and exploiting it is key to their national survival. The US can produce enough oil to sustain and still export. Other countries who shifted to depend on Russia in the EU are who are going to get fucked by this. Hell, Australia is getting double deep dicked right now because they weren't prepared. America is going to be least impacted by this and that is saying something for the rest of the world.

RevolutionaryGold325

EU green parties organizing parties while ignoring trumps calls for help

Soffatjockis

That would completely fuck the EU beyond fucked. Or rather, it would mega fuck Ukraine cus the right wing politicians and the regarded people would scream to end the war asap so that they can get Russian gas again.

DMT1703

Israel red , the other Middle East countries close their stock markets. Russian , Norway ,Bosnia-Herzegovina green. The Rest of EU is either close their market or red. Last night only Venezuela and Argentina are green on America the continents. I expected today it will get repeated.

John_OSheas_Willy

It's weird that Trump is getting the blame for Putin getting finance for his war, yet the EU are literally still buying gas from Russia 4 years later.

leeuwvanvlaanderen

Like not even 6 months ago the US ambassador to the EU was writing guest essays for the FT about how the US is the EU’s most reliable energy partner, fucking lol

Leather_Mention5916

Wat you see is yesterday USA drop that happened when EU was closed.

Special-Remove-3294

1. If China goes to war the EU has no reason to stop trading with them since China poses zero threat to EU due to distance and has no beef with the EU. Only reason they would embargo China would be because they are the USA's number 1 dickrider and our leader will crush our economies to help the USA. 2. Unlike oil and gas, any country can make solar panels. If you are scared of being reliant on China then make them yourself. If you fail to make them yourself then the nation in question suffers from a skill issue

lexmozli

>invest even more in solar & battery tech than they already are. Then China goes to war with someone and that pipeline bursts as well. AFAIK there are no factories outside China big enough to supply the whole EU with solar & batteries, if China's exports get cut off completely.

DigiHumanMediaCo

Never underestimate how stupid they are across the pond. The EU is always divided, with countries looking out for thier own ass. Russia should have been their wake up call.

TradeThoughts

All right cheers, I will check them out. Currently not holding a passport as it expired and I an trsvelling within the EU with my indentity card so for registering I will need to renew it. Thanks for the information and for sharing!

zenspeed

>I think the EU and everyone else has figured out that Trump is ~~in~~ huge trouble. FTFY.

fuzzybunnies1

The real concern is the bill material. I can say from experience that a paper currency can give a damn fine wipe and for the cost of the bills, it was a savings over the pay toilet that provided TP. Now, if you know if Iran has some of those plastic bills like they have in the EU and Canada, then I'll have to agree with you. Those have no cling-on collection ability and you're just smearing without cleaning and its truly a worthless investment.

ChronoLink99

They wouldn't migrate immediately. Iran hitting the fresh water supply will just trigger in-fighting between the gulf states for nearby (i.e. closer than EU) fresh water sources (lakes, rivers, etc). Within a year after that, you'll see the migration to be closer to fresh water sources.

Better_Reputation_71

EU might send another letter; Iran better watch out

HDauthentic

$800, and we’d be talking about her “girls in STEM” initiative and how great we get along with the EU and Canada

7YearOldCodPlayer

That’s incorrect. The IEA pledged to release 400 million barrels of that: the U.S. has released 172 million, Japan has released 80 million, and most EU countries have released 10-15 million barrels… Japan and other Oceana countries have already started and every other country has a timeline created over the next 120 days. This is all as of March 15th.

mido_sama

RIP India and EU.

cheeky-173

What do you think if Revolut as a long term investing platform and for a lifetime savings account? Detail: I have started my carreer recently and have started putting aside some money monthly invested in safe investments like SNP500 and other stocks. Furthermore have a fail safe money set aside for rainy day but the local bank charges fees as its stagnent while revolut offers good apy on such savings. However I am a bit sceptical on the long term and thus want some feedback. I live in the EU.

apurimac777

I would sell everything and go cash but I dont live in the EU so cash is trash too

tobofopo

So it's all the fault of the EU?

The_Albertino

Going to see some interesting global behavior soon, all of these EU NATO countries can’t produce their own oil and won’t help open the strait.

mido_sama

RIP India and EU

KarlLachsfeld

US, EU buddy.

pathways_to_EU

Hard to call it a “golden bottom” or a “falling knife” yet. Real estate markets, especially in places like Dubai, tend to react quickly to geopolitical events, but they also recover quickly once confidence stabilizes. A few things I’d personally look at before jumping in: • Whether the price drop is sentiment-driven or fundamentally driven • If foreign investor demand slows down over the next few months • How the rental yields hold up, since that’s been one of Dubai’s main attractions • Whether developers start offering incentives or discounts Dubai’s market has historically been very cyclical, so timing can matter a lot. Waiting a few months to see if prices stabilize or if further corrections happen might reduce risk. Another thing some investors consider is diversification. Instead of putting everything into real estate in one market, some people look at business investment opportunities in other regions, especially in the EU where there are pathways tied to entrepreneurship. For example, Lithuania has been attracting foreign entrepreneurs through business investment structures where people can establish or acquire companies with capital starting around €28k. The idea isn’t just property investment but building a business within the EU market. If you’re curious about how that structure works, this video explains it fairly well: https://youtu.be/ngiGFq9dEZI?si=qfX_YcgA1dlxp8UF You can also find more details at Pathways.lt. But purely from an investing perspective, I’d personally wait to see how the next quarter plays out in Dubai before making any major moves.

jeffbaehr

Markets are absolutely underestimating this, and the asymmetry of the risk is what concerns me most. I've spent years watching how energy supply shocks move through capital markets, and the pattern here is textbook but at a scale we haven't seen since the 1970s. Goldman's data showing flows through Hormuz collapsing from 19.5 million barrels per day down to 0.5 million isn't a marginal disruption. That's roughly 17.2 million barrels per day offline after pipeline rerouting. To put that in context, the entire SPR release during 2022 was about 1 million barrels per day, and that was considered historic. The math doesn't work. The stagflation setup Mattie describes is the right framework, and I'd argue the transmission channels are faster than most models assume. A 10% increase in oil prices tends to push CPI up by 0.2-0.3%, and we're already looking at Brent up 12% since late February with WTI and EU gas prices moving even harder. If crude sustains above $125, as Mill Creek Capital's CIO flagged, energy spending hits 2% of global GDP, which is historically where you start seeing demand destruction layered on top of inflation. Central banks genuinely have no good options at that point. Cut rates to support growth and you pour fuel on inflation. Hold rates or hike and you accelerate the slowdown. What I've seen in prior supply shocks, including the disruptions around the Gulf War and the 2019 Saudi Aramco attacks, is that markets tend to price the initial move quickly but consistently underestimate duration risk. The 2019 Abqaiq attack knocked out 5.7 million barrels per day and prices snapped back in weeks because production was restored. The critical difference now is that Iran's cost to keep the strait closed is a fraction of the cost to keep it open. That's a structural asymmetry that favors prolonged disruption. The food import angle is underappreciated too. Roughly 70% of Gulf food imports pass through Hormuz. That creates a humanitarian pressure that could force regional actors into unpredictable decisions, adding another layer of risk that's hard to model and almost certainly not priced in. One thing I'd watch closely: insurance and freight rates on tanker traffic. Those repriced almost overnight during the Houthi Red Sea disruptions, and they're a leading indicator of how the physical market views duration risk versus what futures curves are showing. Right now there's a gap between the two, and in my experience the physical market is usually right.

Ok_Share2131

**IBRX jumped above $9 after NCCN Category 2A listing — then closed red. If you’re worried, read this. If you’ve seen this before, you already know what comes next.** --- ## The pattern that repeats in every heavily shorted stock There’s a playbook short sellers use on catalyst days. It works like this: News drops. Retail buys the breakout. Short sellers aggressively sell into the momentum — not because they think the news is bad, but because they *have to* prevent a sustained breakout. A sustained move triggers margin calls. Margin calls trigger forced covering. Forced covering triggers a cascade. So on catalyst days, they throw everything they have at the stock to keep it down. The stock drops. Retail sees red and panics. “Not even good news could move it.” Short sellers win the day. But the catalyst doesn’t end at market close. Revenue grows. The next catalyst loads. And eventually, short sellers run out of ammo. --- ## Tesla. June 2019. Record deliveries reported. Stock drops 1.5%. Shorts celebrate. Tesla sits at $178. Deliveries keep rising. Revenue keeps growing. Twelve months later: $2,213. Every catalyst day between $178 and $2,213 followed the same pattern — spike, pullback, sometimes red. Shorts sold every single one. They lost $40B. --- ## GameStop. January 13, 2021. Ryan Cohen joins the board. Stock spikes to $31, closes at $19.94. Red day — despite a major catalyst. Short sellers increase positions. Two weeks later: $483. Melvin Capital loses 53% in a month and shuts down permanently. --- ## Volkswagen. October 2008. Porsche reveals 74% ownership. Stock *falls* 6% the next morning as shorts pile in. Then it goes from €210 to €1,005 in 48 hours. $30B in short losses. --- ## ImmunityBio. February 18, 2026. EU approves ANKTIVA across 30 countries. Stock drops 42%. Then continues to pull back. What happened next? * Lung shipment approval to Saudi Arabia * EAU26 shows HR 0.4 * NCCN lists papillary cancer as Category 2A Every drop after each catalyst was shorts buying time they don’t have. --- ## What actually happened yesterday NCCN gave ANKTIVA a **Category 2A** rating for papillary bladder cancer. This is their highest level of recommendation — uniform consensus that the treatment is appropriate. This is the indication the FDA refused to review. NCCN reviewed the same data and gave a unanimous recommendation. Starting now — permanently — every urologist in the U.S. can prescribe ANKTIVA for papillary disease with full NCCN backing. All major insurers and Medicare use NCCN Category 2A as the standard for reimbursement decisions. Every new patient = revenue that didn’t exist last week. This doesn’t stop at 4PM. It compounds. --- ## The math short sellers can’t escape 132M shares short vs ~160M float. NCCN just expanded the prescribing base. * sBLA resubmitted March 9 * BLA for BCG-naive patients targets Dec 28 * Saudi Arabia ramping * Europe just launched * Six new catalysts loaded Every catalyst increases prescriptions. Every new patient increases revenue. Every revenue beat weakens the short thesis. A weaker thesis makes shares harder to borrow. Harder borrow = higher cost. The math turns against them — just like it did with Tesla. --- ## Daily price doesn’t matter. The trend does. Red days after catalysts are oxygen for shorts. Catalysts are the fire. Eventually, the oxygen runs out. The stock closed red yesterday. The NCCN Category 2A listing is permanent. The question isn’t today’s candle. It’s how many red days shorts have left before the math catches up. **The trap is tightening.** 💯🚀🚀🚀

SaladAndEggs

Maybe. But they already hold a similar patent in the US and EU, so why would Japan make it worth a fuck ton more?

Academic_Lock_1699

It's US pm dictating now, not EU

JustWordsSnowflake

Nailed it. 100%. NATO and the EU has basically told Trump to fuck off. China wants nothing to do with opening the straight. (They and Russia are almost certainly helping Iran in the background). This won’t end well. Period. About of damage done. And the orange turd is already planning on taking Cuba. I seem to remember a guy in the 1930/40’s doing something similar……

RoughVegetable5319

yeah this feels like a massive overreaction. Trade with Spain isn't just gonna stop overnight, too many tangled EU/US agreements. Santander getting dragged down with everything else seems like a panic sale more than anything fundamental. Might be a good entry if you've got the patience for it. y

Patient-Stand-8040

My friend, what was lifted was secondary sanctions. Even the EU doesn't secondary sanction. Only the US.

SonOfLuigi

Oh please. USA will declare victory after we’ve decimated Iran and let the region deal with the fallout while oil flows and we gain Cuba as a vacation destination. USA diminishing as a world power 🤣 Please, who is going to overtake us? The EU? Russia or China? Nah

Charming_Raccoon4361

imo, its less to do with Epstein Files and more to do controlling oil and pressuring india, EU and china

Bravadette

Nah. It was something I was looking at but didnt realize there were any EU decisions coming up.

Bravadette

It went up 40%+ today... cus of EU funding.

MaleCowShitDetector

It hurts the Asian and EU market more than it hurts US. There is not much to intercept. Iran is gone, it's a matter of weeks. China doesnt benefit from prolonging the war either, they are more hurt by it as they need oil reserves. Russia does benefit from it. You can't really get the level of info i'm getting unfortunately.