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Considering the large amount of downvotes from angry bers during trading hours, I doubt that. But FGI shows p/c ratio recovering to pre-April crash despite the current environment though so who knows
Ok I finally got done reading the whole post. Some of my own personal insight into robotics as it stands based on where I worked (S&P 250 component at a robotics BU, Series A Robotics startup). Medical Robotics firms specifically benefit uniquely from an insane amount of regulatory capture, meaning the only forms which can compete in this space are incumbents who have thrown billions into the initial R&D and regulatory filing work needed to get their projects off the ground. That regulatory filing work also has to be done for every subsequent product release. This helps lock in a very strong moat for these firms, but also creates a disincentive for true innovation. It's no surprise the most dominant players in the space are Intuitive and the medical equipment manufacturers. This happens to create a scenario where CapEx is relatively low, margins stay high due to limited competition, and R&D is done carefully. This is why I'm basically always checking the stock price of IRSG (it's an elite company). In general consumer robotics, scale is always needed to reach the escape velocity needed by startups to create a profitable venture. Most supply chains are based in a mix of Southeast Asia and Mexico. Like Semi analysis mentioned, sub suppliers that the main fabrication companies use are in China. That's where the macro problem lies. From an individual company perspective, if you're a small company looking to innovate in the robotics space, you will need A LOT of funding to take off in most scenarios. Think close to a $100 million to afford the software and hardware dev talent, product support, and initial orders for the FGI. It's still really expensive from a COGS perspective for American companies to develop complex consumer robotics. It's funny that KUKA was heavily mentioned, as the startup that I was at was quoted an insane amount for a custom version of their robotic arm (~$40-50k). We ended up trialing it and not proceeding further due to the cost at low volumes. It is really difficult to be competitive as a small robotics company, and only the larger conglomerates can afford to burn capital to standup a robotics division (like an Amazon or a JNJ). Having worked at a Series A that was looking to garner investment, I got to see how potential investors and venture capital funds looked at the industry. To them, humanoids are the future, but humanoids are limited by our own physiological constraints. It is wholly advantageous to create better multipurpose robots not confined to our constraints. An undisclosed robotics startup was granted $140 million in Series A funding so they could go out and build a humanoid under $50k COGS, but my boss and I laughed when we heard that pitch (and cried a bit that they got that much funding). US companies are constrained on how they get raw materials, constrained by the logistical hurdles of having them shipped overseas to our main suppliers, constrained by assembly, constrained by working capital requirements, etc. Humanoids are one piece of the puzzle, but the only ones catching the eyes of larger investment vehicles and their management. All in all, it's dawned upon me that venture capital looks at robotics from a consumer perspective like a pipe dream they would like to chase like all their other moonshot projects. The problem is that like Semi analysis mentioned, China is taking a strategic approach and is beginning to carve out dominance in industrial automation. The US needs to have that kind of strategic alignment or else it will fall so behind. Private companies CANNOT underwrite hundreds of billions in this kind of investment.
when the Fear and Greed Index peaks, it is the time to buy, look at the FGI and compare it to the market! Thanks for that, hope it pans out, I went in big personally.
The FGI literally tells you the metrics they use if you click on it
Everyone coming out to cry about the last 2 days posted similar positions, it dropped exactly because that's what silent majority are holding. Current overall put/call ratio is 0.64, and options are the only thing in Extreme Greed in the FGI, everything else is in Fear-Extreme Fear. All calls are fucked.
ATM .50-.65 delta, as far out as possible. Am wanting to start building intrinsic value immediately, buying when fear is high in the market, getting a deal on the long term. Using the short term swing trade to lock-in profit, covering the original debt paid of the LEAPS. When FGI dumps again, reopen swings and keep profiting while letting LEAPS ride until expiration and collecting deep intrinsic value.
Exactly, buy ATM and hope becomes deep ITM, which ATM usually .65-.50 delta - My entire goal is to buy when fear is high, getting deal on long term, build as much intrinsic value as possible from there, while using short term swings to lock-in profits and offset original debt paid of the LEAPS. Then can re-open swings when FGI sell-off on tickers have LEAPS on, or find new companies to open swing + LEAPS on.
Man thank you for this comment, you're the reason I made this post. You have my mind racing on how can possibly make the most cost effective way to profit when market goes bearish. Buying LEAPS allows to keep running if market stays hot like first half of year, five months running hot where there would be no opportunities to open swings + LEAPS cause there's no fear in the market, *but* the LEAPS would keep running during this period. So hot periods are covered. If FGI dumps, it's moment to open swings + LEAPS. So the down periods are covered taking advantage of cycles and getting a head start on LEAPS which will stay active if market runs hot for months eliminating entry opportunities. However, if market is dump which have suspected will continue and only get worse in Dec., with santa rally being saving grace, have no effective means to profit to the downside. My hedges were too expensive, many leveraged ETF's decay too fast. This is a great question, maybe worth to skip trying to profit to downside and play scenario #1 and #2 and skip this cause idk if there is a viable easily downturn profitable ticker like that.
Thank you, good factor to consider the seasonality. I thought selling IV on earning's at .15 delta would be viable, but one big move up and then a continuation could be a costly mistake. Receive small chump change from premium, while losing big gains from position now deep in intrinsic value. I was thinking to sell covered calls while fear and greed index was over 60+, when it tanks to 20ish the whole market comes down which at that point could close the short legs, or if have been rolling up and out for a while even break ahead of price. Sell now, keep selling, close when FGI tanks and let it recover before selling, so if overran by share price can have confidence should pullback to some degree within few months so can keep rolling up and out until then. What do you think about that?
Did the rally start cause of an earning's event? Seems that's the worst time to sell a CC even though IV at its highest, for generating income but they may be selling short in long run like in your example. Imagine if the rally went to $25-$30 or company really moved like $50-$60 so idk if should sell CC's or not Unless market tanks, looking at fear and greed index when goes to 20ish, share price comes down a lot for most companies as market sells off and fear takes over. Keep rolling up and out and close then, hmm actually this helps me a ton, I don't mind selling covered calls as long as fear and greed index is high like now cause I know when it comes down share price will too so I can keep chasing, rolling up and out and wait for that moment to either catch up and close, or close and wait for FGI to rebound.
Fear and Greed Index is at 74 no way am buying shares right now. Last time to buy shares was August 9th, and Sept. 5th when FGI dipped hard.
An FGI of 63 means more if it comes after a long period of low values rather than after a streak of high values. Context is key.
He's looking at a local high. A FGI of 63 may be more important when it shows up after a long streak of low values, than when it shows up after a long streak of higher values.
https://youtu.be/sYWNhkKUCPk?si=gZ8FGI_yPkv5hCrp Same shit I was saying earlier in the thread. Fucking assholes.
I was making the point I won't buy shares unless it's like an ETF such as SMH when Fear and Greed index hits 20, I wouldn't buy LEAPs on it for example. I made the point because shares are undefined risk. Am only trading double & triple calendars from now on, will buy shares prob after Sept. when bloodbath is over or maybe not buy shares at all and just trade options where my risk is always defined. I'd like to buy back in Nvda but I can see price dumping back to $80s as well as market continues selling off. These next 2 months are really ugly months historically with Sept. being the worst. I don't want to buy shares with that ahead unless FGI is at 15-25.
Ty! I'm trying to create systematic response to events, discovering which tools will create best results. Cost effective, risk defined, neutral, high reward and not needing to constantly search charts for opportunities, want to actually have a life. CPI, GDP, PCE all seem like greatly monthly events to play. Earning's of individual stocks cause am not at your level to use ETFs. The put/calls ratio with VIX/50ma, fear and greed index's two best indicators imo to time buying calls or puts on SPY. For example, April 19th FGI reached 33 so I loaded up on shares in IRA and bought the literal floor. I didn't expect reversal from there, I just begin buying aggressively when FGI dumps below 35, really aggressively below 25. I just never knew about wielding options before so wasn't maximizing my results at all. So those are 3 events can routinely look forward too and use the set of tools which have proven themselves like OTM long calendars, which prefer over butterflies and are better imo. Was up 43% for the year, now 25% after paying to learn more. I decided am not buying shares ever again unless for buy & hold. I always want my risk defined in any trade, not having it defined only takes one bad day to take years of progress.
Go look at Fear and Greed index, April 19th tanking wasn't this cyclical event you're prophesying, middle east has the drone event and fear errupted quite quickly. Throwing out gut feels and number predictions. Unless FGI tanks, NVDA will consolidate, dip little more or make a recovery with GDP next week.
Black swan event everybody is losing, check the news you'd wait to go in, I use the fear and greed index, if we're at 50 and we dump to 40 but negative news is ongoing like the recent drone strike I won't buy back in yet. When we reached 31 on April 19th or the lowest point I bought too, fear and greed index guides me on macro economic conditions. I'd lose 15-20% on the first spread, wait a week and open again depending how FGI guides me.
So my strategy is wait until Fear and Greed index tanks to 25, wait exactly one week and then begin to buy aggressively. With earning's season around the corner, I took positions 2nd week of April or about three to four weeks before reporting. After waiting 5 months for FGI to tank, which'll happen this week. What's the better play, earning's or FGI? In this case with banks and Goldman reporting next week, would've been FGI it seems. Or maybe earning's pulls through and sell day of reporting. We'll find out soon but going forward I'll decide which is better event to play.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGI3WO7jK9w](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGI3WO7jK9w)
Ford? [You mean Fix It Again, Tony](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FGI3WO7jK9w&pp=ygUVRGFsZSB0aG91Z2h0cyBvbiBmb3Jk)
Here's what I mean, TA has to match up with FGI though if not don't play it [https://imgur.com/a/1gZIK5Y](https://imgur.com/a/1gZIK5Y)
This is the second retail FOMO I’ve see after the close today. Granted, I don’t come here often. The other OP deleted their post. I’m thinking of Warren Buffet’s FGI axiom chiseled into a Japanese Tsunami Stone by our ancestors. Now we all live on the beach and pay a premium for the pleasure only to have the fabled wave come along when we think it never will and wash us all away a few times in our lifetimes, but not often enough to teach us. Just when I think I’m out, greed _”pulls me back in!”_ and rinse and repeat. Everyone become a bear … … someday. Mark my words. I’m pushing 60. I lived through an entire lost decade in the 70’s. That shit hurts. This isn’t the “stonks only go up” crowd. This is a neophytes rolling up with a wad of cash to fuel the last melt up. The saying that stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down isn’t really true for the biggies. There is always the Space Shuttle Columbia that appears at the last moment and returns with this final entry into the mission commanders log: “Fate: disintegrated during re-entry” … right the effe over my house when that baby really came down. Anyway, retail FOMO gives my guh bear SPYdr Senses a woody. Probably the nicest person in the world showing up 10 minutes before the game ends after paying full price for the ticket. If I were licensed to give advice, I might recommend 5% bonds and wake up every day and watch Bloomberg and CNBC, watch ALL news channels, even (or especially) the ones that you don’t agree with and always watch the after market analysis. Read Buffet’s work. Relax and dip the toe in in small chunks so the education he will acquire losing money hand over fist won’t be quite as expensive. I think the mods should graph retail FOMO for us. WSB would probably alter market sentiment. It’s all a self-fulfilling prophecy. See you all in bankruptcy court.
If we all say FGI at once, we could be rich (well some of us). Look at that float.
I'm going back to the basics, what's worked for me best since the beginning, buying when fear and greed index is low and there's lots of fear. Can time market bottoms lowest date to FGI bottoms. It's at 50 now so am just kinda in limbo waiting to lump sum into QLD again lol
So I think I understand relative volume, but what’s a curling chart..? Tried filtering on finviz like OC recommended and found some potentials. Would you consider BFRG a curling chart? BNOX? FGI? What are the criteria you’re looking for?
Found some serious ability to move FGI Industries at the retail level. Ticker FGI. Volume is at almost Zero and almost any retail purchase drives this stock up temporarily. If just 10 people read this comment and bought 20 shares each (around $40) it could break $3
FGI is the play guy. I already gave alerts on HKD, GCT AMD STBX. FGI will be the next parabolic runner
That's why I am buying FGI like mad.
All I know is that I am buying FGI like mad and find the market to be wildly irrational at this moment.
FGI to rocket...and somebody to tell me that this post violates *something* on this board.
I am in on BBAI, but far deeper in FGI. GLTA.
If your holdings are conservative, a recession is not horrific. If you are in speculative biotech... Personally, my risky stock is FGI, but it is a profitable company in a good segment, and wildly underpriced. So there's that.
Be of good faith! There is always FGI. And now with a Reddit page, too!
$FGI. I will say no more. Always nice to invest in a stock deep down low in its range, with valuation several times as much. But like all stocks, when it dropsm, you must weather it, and you must not be too greedy on the top side either. But I would play with that. You are only playing with $1,000, so your downside is low. Good luck!
I dunno about Home Depot, but $FGI, which is the company behind HD's Glacier Bay line, IS A VERY GOOD BUY. Like a SERIOUSLY WILDLY AMAZING good buy right now.
I now own over 5% of the public float of FGI. Strapping in.