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SunHydrogen (HYSR) — The overlooked penny stock sitting at the intersection of AI infrastructure’s two biggest unsolved problems
GTBIF has 100 million for share buybacks but couldn't afford to give good employees a $2 raise...
I got fired from Green Thumb Industries in 2018...
Higher Exchanges with Sammy J: Is Cannabis Finally Investable Again? Rescheduling, GTI, Vireo & C21 Breakdown
DD on the 10x Potential of Misunderstood company $RYM
THC Drinks Billboards going up across the US
Can $GTI and $RAYA go higher again?
$GTI Graphjet Technology Inc - A Malaysian Gem in the making from Graphite and Graphene
Tomorrow tickers 2nd opinion
DD: Graphjet Technologies, an Interesting Bull Case:
Huge announcement by Graphjet Technology (GTI) $GTI
📢 GTI Stock Update – Turning the Corner?
I did 4 Calls today... ZEO 32%, SGN 29%, IMNN 26%, (GTI -8%)
Few picks I saw on Squeezefinder AI 29MAY2025 $GTI, $ZEO, $SGN, $IMNN
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GTI's share structure isn't unique or particularly concerning. Most growth companies have similar structures. Google, Meta, Snap, and many others trade at premium valuations despite multi-class shares. Investors generally accept founder control when it produces good results.
Does anybody else consider the use of financial metrics like EBITDA to be little more than reading the corporate tea leaves? Aside from the cannabis REITs, Green thumb is fundamentally the only “investment” grade cannabis stock because it’s the only company in the sector that is profitable, and by some pretty handsome margins. I would also make a case that the near-profitable companies like Curaleaf and Trulieve are compelling investments, but not at these enterprise values relative to GTI. Everything else, with mind numbing amounts of debt and backed taxes, is essentially a speculation. Long: IIPR, GTBIF, MSOS
Don’t get down on ya self, past choices are past choices, a couple bad trade doesn’t make or break you that’s the beauty of the market. Always another opportunity out there just have to find it. It’s all about perspective, and being able to take emotions out of things. Truthfully nobody knows everything, a lot of people just learn as they go and try to not make the same mistake twice. The very first cannabis stock I bought was red white and bloom. They went bankrupt, and I lost 7k. I went back and looked at everything and realized emotion clouded my judgement. The signs were there I just ignored them. I understand filings and financials so for me to ignore them was crazy to me. I will say I’m waiting for a few more percentage points to drop and I’ll buy Cresco. & GTI, and potentially msos calls. I think Cresco will be merged/aquired. Charlie is too connected and Cresco competes in tough states and has good brand power. Trulieve could acquire them. State lay out would fit perfectly and Kim and Charlie spoke about it in the past before the harvest merger. I find it hard to justify msos going crazy because Dan has said numerous times the fund was created because the mso’s where on an otc and he wanted to help with liquidity, well if they uplist then what’s the point of the ETF? What restructuring happens? As far as Tilray goes, idk your reasons but last I check less then half rev came from cannabis, and they acquired brands and then those same brands loss market share. That’s a managerial/operational problem. In my opinion so I’ll never touch them. Blue chips are good, I have some reits that pay monthly. And then traditional blue chips. I don’t think you’ve missed your oil play, depending on what you owned. I think LNG will become massive. And I think we are in arguably one of the most transitional energy & infrastructure phases of my life time. companies like DUK, NEE etc will continue to grow via infrastructure upgrades and rising utility cost due to data centers. They charge to use electricity in the regions while technically having a monopoly for 4-5 years and guaranteed ROI on the build outs/upgrades. And then companies like ormat technologies will be very impactful to traditional oil drilling. Ormat isn’t as known but 67 to 144-148 in less than a year. I think AI is the gold but I think energy/infrastructure/utilities are the shovels. I’d rather be the one selling the shovels. Without the latter AI will stall. You hit load capacity on the grid amongst other things. So these trillion dollar companies or multi billion dollar companies will write a blank check to those infrastructure companies because without them the AI bubble will pop.
Oh I agree on that, but what about management? To be fair, my criticism of management is more targeted toward Curaleaf. I may begin building out a GTI position, but it's hard to justify when NLCP is paying so much with such little debt.
Yes. GTI absolutely. Look at the financials.
Your triggered. I don’t have a bear thesis, and that’s actually not true at all in regards to shelf offerings. The only bear point of view I have is none of these companies have any chance at growth until interstate commerce happens, and uplisting isn’t the end all be all. I’ve commented that I am buying Cresco, GTI and some MSOS calls I just haven’t yet. I trade the sector based off all of your and everyone else’s delusions and misunderstanding of market dynamics. When I buy I hold until 8-10 percent above my buy then I sell.
Trulieve already has a shelf offering on the table. Go look at the filings. GTI doesn’t tho that’s why I said 99 percent, that’s the only company who won’t.
Truly I've announced theirs already.GTI has been doing buy backs to reach the same end, imo
>but they all will rise when there is a rally so >why not hold the most efficient MSO with the least downside? Because GTI has had the least upside of the top companies so far? I agree they have the best fundamentals but the spat between Ben and Dan has led to less buying pressure since they've gone from #1 to #3 MSOS holding, translating to poor SP performance compared to its peers.
I can confirm - I’m not buying but I do see buy button on GTI, Cura and Trulieve as well! Neato burrito!!
Yes I think Cresco will fall to 80 cents usd, and I think GTI will go back down to $7.20-$7.30, I think msos goes back down to 4.85. Idrc about msos target price, I just need a pull back to get the options cheaper. It’s really a gamble and I’ll loose some money due to the spread of the bid and ask on the call option. I’m not buying options on Cresco or gti. I’ll own those out right. I’m buying options on MSOS.
History tells me tomorrow spike up then closes below 5 or 4.5 to kill options on expiry. I own MSOS (slightly green) as my trading vessel. I will sell if we gap up open. Added Trulieve recently, man it’s already 15% up wow. Holding GTI and Cron calls (2028) regardless.
I think GTI will get there eventually but their volume was atrocious compared to some of the other names today and I think there is more money to be made on most other names in the short term. Once fundamentals actually start to matter (i.e. uplisting) thing should pick up for them.
Do what? If you mean the RS, GTI & TRUL share prices are already compliant so there's no need. They could actually get uplisted before CURA if the only requirement is 90 consecutive days above $4. I'm sure there's more to it than that, just sayin'.
Yeah, he mentioned there's still risk and this is a gamble he wants to take early as the biggest company. He knows Trulieve and GTI don't need to RS so he needs to catch up ASAP if he wants to be first.
Nice spike GTI and TRUL
Everyone besides GTI. That’s the very first thing all these companies will do the second they uplist.
I don't expect TRUL or GTI but who knows.
Chat tells me What do you think will happen ? That Green Thumb is the only one that has been paying taxes You’re talking about the IRS 280E issue. A lot of U.S. cannabis MSOs either delayed paying full federal taxes or challenged the taxes in court because cannabis was federally Schedule I. That created massive “uncertain tax liabilities.” The biggest names people usually point to are: • Trulieve Cannabis — widely discussed as having very large unpaid/disputed 280E liabilities. Recent reports and filings discussions put it in the hundreds of millions.  • Curaleaf Holdings — reported around $531 million in disputed/unpaid federal tax liabilities tied to 280E.  • Cresco Labs — also has large liabilities, reported around $171 million.  • Verano Holdings — another one with very large tax exposure, reported around $378 million.  But Green Thumb Industries is generally viewed differently by investors. GTI has repeatedly said it continued paying its 280E taxes instead of aggressively withholding them. That’s one reason many investors see GTI as the “cleanest” large MSO financially. 
But they dont move by the same %. Cresco swings much more violently up and down that GTI for example.
Uplisting isn’t the knight and armor everyone thinks. These companies will immediately dilute like curaleaf or really tbh most of them besides GTI. Hell curaleaf as a 1 billion dollar shelf offering. They will be offering shares at some point when the market is favorable. $1 billion all at once prolly not, but then again they did $317 million equity offering with cancord in 2021 when the share price was 14-15 dollars. Being on a major exchange will put everything under more scrutiny. The stocks will be more heavily traded if more liquidity comes in. Management will likely shift and a lot of companies will indeed go bankrupt or get rolled up. I think we are far away from uplisting, will there be talks and hype driven headlines, prolly. Have some companies changed domiciles? Yes, it good? Yes but until you see management movements, or an S-3 filings, or anything of that sorts all those headlines are just headlines. My point being is smart money isnt going to move into a house that needs work. Theyll see the new foundation get put up, maybe a porch being built then they’ll see new paint and siding and then they might come see the inside at the open house. The outside being state / federal regulatory structure and the inside of the house being company financials. But you guys need to realize smart money comes in diff strategies- family funds, pensions, hedge funds, VCs and Institutional/ are all playing different games. Not all are good for a company.
I never thought refunds were in the cards (was pleasantly surprised by DOJ rec given that) but I also think a lot of detail is needed There’s many years prior to 2026 with accumulated 280E. I think if you’re investing you should still assume no refunds for prior years to be safe (hello GTI) but this is a specific instance to let’s wait and see
Imo there are many variables at play and Nov deadline is just one of them, also I don't see RYM as just pure hemp drinks play (GTI may lijely use it as vehicle uplist as well). To me RYM in low 20s is not a bad price to make an initial entry ( if I were starting now) and scale in if it goes lower, however since I am already in at a much lower avg I would prefer to only add to my current position if it goes below 18. It all depends on your risk appetite plus RYM is high beta and has wild swings, so be ready for it if you wish out put your money here.. glta
Yeah, holding out for a delay or regulation on the November 2026, but it will be here soon. Love the GTI $70M, however RYM's stock price is stuck here or lower with the ban lingering, would you agree??
Could be facilitating GTI's share buy backs. He likely did the same back in November last year when a GTI went out a bought a whole bunch as per their last ER
Scary thing is MSOS can easily close at 4.50$ or 5.00 or 5.50$ tomorrow. My bet is 5$. Would be ideal if CURA gets a major correction and GTI and TRUL make up the ground, but with the OTC nonsense we may be in for punishment until mid June. We will see….
Because curaleaf trades on a real exchange. GTI and Trul are caught in OTC hell
I think GTI should trade, at least at 2x p/s prior to any reform. Once 280e goes away, even if it's just for medical, I think it should quickly rerate to 2.5-3x p/s. MO is at around 5x, BTI is around 3.5x, PM is around 6x and STZ is around 3x. I am loading up on GTI.
FWIW, I’m not trying to compare sectors directly, but the disparity is insane. Is even a 2x TTM sales multiple too much to ask for GTI?
I'd be happy with enough volume (and options chains) to at least set up "regular" sup/res on the top MSOs. These things have been manipulated to shit on the low volume, no news weeks for a decade+. Flip the sector interest from TLRY/CGC to GTI/Trulieve and we'll see some real price discovery south of the border. Institutional investors have been waiting for a legal way to invest in the big US companies for years. I've talked with a handful of managers/analysts about this since 2017. They won't touch it until all the red tape is gone.
You believe its not wild that Curaleaf is worth as much as GTI and Trulieve combined?
No it’s not wild, s3 hit the register curaleaf is the most impacted by it. Not trulieve. Not GTI. It goes curaleaf Cresco verano than trulieve.
I'm so sick of GTI SP underperforming so I sold 440 shares. Expect it to rocket up now.
Wow! Trulieve and GTI are so oversold right now, it's crazy. Thinking about buying more in the morning before it rebounds hard. Watching closely, boys
GTI would need a correction to $14 to reach curlf’s market cap.
We're more or less on the same page for all but 5. I'm sure we could find a point of contention on *how* important those specific issues are, but at that point I think we'd be arguing just to argue lol. Here's my reasoning for where we disagree: MSOs are built for their current environment which means each state needs its own grow, distribution, and store fronts. When interstate commerce opens up, that's a lot of redundant assets and inefficiency. Streamlined businesses that emerge will eat their lunch. A lot of the success also comes from a lack of competition. For example, GTI has great financials, but it has less to do with having a uniquely efficient business and more to do with where they've done business. Its also why GTI doesn't really grow. To your point on margins: MSOs have such a large margin entirely because of being unable to deduct almost anything due to weed being S1. When those costs can be deducted, there will be downward pressure on prices as businesses fight for market share. A lot of people seem to think those 280e saving will go directly to the bottom line going forward, but there will absolutely be price compression that follows in response. So you are correct that efficient operators will succeed over the less efficient, but margins of MSOs are not apples to apples of other fully legal businesses at this point.
Their brand deal through GTI sets a bit of a floor for where they can go. [https://ir.rythminc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rythm-inc-announces-amendments-license-agreements-green-thumb/](https://ir.rythminc.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rythm-inc-announces-amendments-license-agreements-green-thumb/) >Effective April 1, 2026, Green Thumb will pay RYTHM an aggregate fixed annual cash fee of $70 million, subject to an annual increase equal to two times a Consumer Price Index-based escalator.
GTI is generally recognized as one of the best managed companies in this sector, and as the most efficient (i.e. actual GAAP profits), and as one of the healthiest (balance sheet). Doing pretty good is already calculated into its valuation.
Earning season should be avoided for now with seasoned traders and hedge funds preying on weedstock rookies who think earnings will actually move the needle. Wish I would’ve shorted GTI - they continuously get punished for having excellent financials. This sector sucks ass.
The only two bullish things that has happen is their Kentucky & Texas opportunity. I hold a core position in Cresco & GTI , and I agree with your take. I think they are position their selves to get acquired. Cleaned up balance sheet, and operational efficiencies now. What kills them is the non controlling interest fee they pay which is 50-60 mill, and then being in very competitive states that others shy away from. They don’t loose market share but man their margins are clobbered in those states. The non controlling interest fee is for a group of individuals that owned dispos in IL, if they could get that off the balance sheet plus 280e it would make them look good.
Are you saying GTI’s earnings was bad?
dug deeper. * Adjusted EBITDA: Down YoY ✗ * Operating Income: Down YoY ✗ * Gross Margin: Compressed 340 bps ✗ * Same-store sales: Down 0.5% ✗ * CPG revenue: Down 1.6% ✗ BUUUT **RYTHM is GTI's vehicle for eventual Nasdaq presence in cannabis**.
Someone dislikes GTI today. Not sure why.
Am I missing something or is Curaleaf a better company than GTI and TRUL?
Yeah, 280E removal is expected to cut a lot for them. I would put their 2025 full year 280E owed at $126M. So they now get that cash back to deploy vs paying in taxes, while already being profitable and having a big chunk of cash with manageable debt 💸 The question is what they will use the cash for. They have done an amazing job of managing debt and not fudging numbers. They have done buy backs. What they really need now it to show double digit growth - they have a good footprint in VA, PA, and FL which will eventually show up in growth once rec happens. But they really need to use that cash to be much more aggressive and change their philosophy a bit. I think Cura has taken on a tremendous amount of risk and operational complexity to be the scale play. GTI has extremely low risk and while revenue per store is exceptional with limited license and geo strategy, they need to close the narrative gap on also having the kind of scale / size others have.
First of all, macro is dipping and oddly enough, MSOS has been following it for most of this week. Secondly, GTI and Curaleaf had great earnings...Trulieve wasn't great, not "shit the bed" earnings, but also not great...Mostly expected. I think we may finish in the red today if macro doesn't pump up.
You can’t compare GTI other companies based on EBITDA. Those companies were not paying there tax and were not profitable. GTI paid its tax and was profitable. GTI had over $340m in cash on hand, has only 200m debt and has $RYM on the balance sheet which isn’t really even accounted for.
Time for GTI and TRUL market cap to surpass Curaleaf. LFG
I sold a bunch of my Tilray shares two weeks ago for just under 8USD once it became clear the DOJ medical S3 ruling was another STN (sell the news) event. I held on too long after the EO on 18 Dec and did not want to repeat that mistake. Intent was to buy it all back at some point and right now under 6USD is enticing...BUT I think I have finally come to realize Tilray is not going to turnaround, or at least to the level I see some of the MSOs potentially achieving. I have come to the conclusion that Irwin Simon has diluted one too many times and there is just too much negative sentiment after that ill-timed reverse split on Thanksgiving (quite the turkey). Thinking it is time to buy some MSOs beyond CL. Tempted on Trulieve, but am cautious about Florida; will there be competition and price compression? Also thinking about buying some GTI. I listened to the conference call; impressive. Has Charlotte's Web run its course? I regret not jumping into it earlier when GeoLogic suggested .13CAD was a bargain. I note BAT exchanged debt for shares at .94CAD but CWEB is presently trading at .63 (it experienced some significant recent declines off of mid .80s). I am disappointed in Tilray, and perhaps more in myself for falling in love with a company and not letting go of the denial aspects of admitting (to myself) I made a mistake. I've been in and out of Tilray since it was Aphria. Now looking to recoup some major losses in other weedstocks. Recommendations?
I chose to not trim AMD to gamble on GTI financials today so it should go through the roof tomorrow lol I will regret my inaction
Still feel pretty good about my Entire net worth in only GTI and RYM.
A large percentage of US investors can’t invest in GTI!
Strong start to 2026 for GTI- results ahead of expectations, good YoY growth, and a significant sequential OpEx reduction that continues to support cash flow generation and a balance sheet ripe with opportunity. Like Q4, adult-use sales in Minnesota led the quarter along with share gains in several states as management now claims the #1 market share in Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Ohio and Minnesota. GTI repurchased 6M shares at $5.51/share during Q1, with another 7.4M shares in Q2 at $6/share, both well below the recent trading prices and the company used their buy back program very effectively. Interestingly, management took out an additional $45M in debt despite the cash generation during Q1 (cash now at $346M), and noted that there was an abundance of M&A opportunities at the moment suggesting movement ahead. Full review: **Revenue:** QoQ: $311.1M to $300.2M / YoY: $279.5M to $300.2M *Down sequentially but up a very strong 7.4% YoY ahead of expectations ($298M), led by Minnesota's AU launch and the 11 new store openings over the last year. Retail was up 4.7% while CPG was down 1.6%. No new stores online in Q1.* **Adjusted EBIDTA:** QoQ: $100.2M to $93.5M / YoY: $85.2M to $93.5M *Huge beat on consensus here ($80M), with YoY growth of 9.7% YoY- good to see. Margin comes in at 31.1%, down modestly from 32.2% in Q4 but up from 30.5% last year. Very strong relative to peers who have reported so far.* **Gross Margins:** QoQ 45.4% to 47.9% / YoY: 51.3% to 47.9% *Up sequentially good to see and down YoY, but note that this includes the $9.0M licensing fee paid in the quarter and would have been 50.8% in Q1 with that adjusted so closer to flat YoY. At a good level.* **Operating Expenses:** QoQ: $122.3M to $102.9M / YoY: $100.8M to $102.9M *Huge drop sequentially and only a modest rise YoY- good cost controls considering 11 new store openings and the Minnesota launch over the past year.* **Operational Cash Flow:** QoQ: $90.1M to $75.8M / YoY: $74.2M to $75.8M *Very strong cash generation and this included $8.7M in AP/Accrued liabilities paydown during the quarter. CapEx was $18.9M for FCF of $56.9M.* **Cash:** QoQ: $274.3M to $346.2M *Big jump to start the year as positive OCF combined with $45M in net debt taken out, well offsetting the CapEx spend and $33.3M in share repurchases. Debt stands at $289.9M and a UTP of $220.6M*
Is GTI clowing us by ghosting the call?
There certainly are more links to them than to a lot of others. If you look at synergies, think of it from the perspective of Altria. * Altria is mostly focused on smokeable products, while having a smaller investment in beverages with AB. * GTI is mostly focused on smokeable products, while having a smaller investment in beverages with RYM. In theory, Altria/GTI pushing smokeables while AB's distribution network carries their beverages would make sense. I could definitely make the case for a few other companies too, but GTI/Altria doesn't seem too crazy.
Pretty solid! Well done GTI!
GTI **Highlights for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026:** * Revenue of $300.2 million, an increase of 7.4% over the same period in the prior year. * Cash at quarter end totaled $344.5 million. * GAAP net income of $15.4 million or $0.07 per basic and diluted share. * Normalized EBITDA of $93.5 million or 31.2% of revenue. * Cash flow from operations of $76.0 million. * Repurchased approximately 6.0 million of the Company's Subordinate Voting Shares for $33.3 million. * Increased syndicated credit facility by $50.0 million. **Subsequent to Quarter End** * Conditionally awarded a Texas Compassionate Use Program license for vertically integrated operations. * Repurchased approximately 7.4 million additional Subordinate Voting Shares, bringing 2026 year-to-date repurchases to approximately 13.4 million Subordinate Voting Shares for approximately $77.7 million. Since initiating its share repurchase programs in September 2023, the Company has repurchased approximately 29.0 million shares for approximately $200.0 million. * Submitted registration applications with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration for certain state-licensed medical cannabis operations following the federal rescheduling of medical cannabis to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act.
Is my bias leading me to see links and synergies between GTI/RYM/Altria that aren't necessarily there? Probably the bias.
Target is expanding several brands, including the brand **Trail Magic.** This is an investment by Dumont Global, which is the cannabis investing arm of the partners from **3G Capital**. * 3G Capital is the private equity firm behind AB InBev. * Altria is 3G's longtime co-investor in AB InBev * Target started lobbying for hemp in **2026Q1** with their in-house lobbyist. Target also registered the firm Akin Gump in late 2024, but never logged any actual activity with them. Finally in 2026Q1 they reported lobbying (tariffs on textiles). The lobbyists they are using are named Deatherage and **Olswanger**. * AB InBev has used Akin Gump for years. They just started using Olswanger in 2025Q3. This is the same and only quarter AB InBev ever used Deatherage. * Altria has also used Akin Gump for years. They just re-added Olswanger to the team in 2026Q1. * Altria used to use Olswanger between **2023Q3 - 2024Q3** * GTI used to use Olswanger between **2023Q3-2024Q4**. Some quarters the [only lobbyist Green Thumb used was Olswanger.](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/0c91b36a-8c04-4542-9785-95a6aab55eac/print/) GTI registered with Olswanger on 6/13/2023. Altria then added Olswanger to the team starting 7/1/2023. GTI now uses the lobbying firm Forbes-Tate. Besides Jeff Forbes being a decades long Altria lobbyist, [one of the lobbyist GTI is using (Rick Murphy) has lobbied for Altria since 1999](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/185a7622-0ad4-4ec7-9459-98af893245ae/print/). Even having [Altria named in his biography](https://forbes-tate.com/member/rick-murphy/). Olswanger, who has only recently started being used by AB InBev, also has a specific connection to AB InBev from his very first lobbying disclosure. Olswanger was on one registration way back in 2014, and not on another until 2016. The company that he first started lobbying for was Burger King. Besides AB InBev, Burger King is one of the most prominent long term investments by 3G Capital. [On Olswanger's very first lobbying registration ever, the associated organization listed was 3G Capital](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/dc325695-804f-467b-90c9-1be4f1bf96f6/print/).
Yah…. The thing about L.Ps is… The Canadian market is already over saturated & indoor grows are extremely expensive, (this is why they don’t grow oranges in Alaska). The U.S has untapped markets like North & South Carolina & Texas, just to name a few. Also, while L.Ps are doing reverse splits, GTI is buying back shares so there’s that.
Yah…. The thing about L.Ps is… The Canadian market is already over saturated & indoor grows are extremely expensive, (this is why they don’t grow oranges in Alaska). The U.S has untapped markets like North & South Carolina & Texas, just to name a few. Also, while L.Ps are doing reverse splits, GTI is buying back shares so there’s that.
Consider upping GTI & TRUL, their market potential is kinda high. If course, we are all investing based on speculation
You and u/Orennji gave me some food for thought today. I have nearly-equally weighted GTI, TRUL, and TLRY in my gambling portfolio. I know the shortcomings of Tilray, and I feel very confident in Trulieve, but I may be overconfident in Green Thumb. May be time to reassess, with interstate commerce for medical probably coming soon and rec may be following if summer commission rumors are true (which I doubt)
I became wary of GTI because of the cultish behavior of the "investors" on this sub. Very few normal consumers are even aware of the brand in the real world, because their cash cows are Minnesota and border dispensaries. Not markets where people actually live.
I’ll second that on Glass House. I’ve got large positions in Green Thumb and Trulieve too but think in the long term, the cost of duplicity of operations may saddle them and become GH’s competitive advantage. That’s why I’m thinking GH as a long term hold and GTI/Trul as a medium term trade. As a runner up conviction play, I’ve built a good sized position in LEEF which I feel will follow in GH’s shadow but maybe lag by a year or two as they continue to ramp up operations and drive costs down. Only difference being theirs is a target niche market for concentrates.
GTI and IIPR. They’re essentially the only companies in the space that are profitable.
IIPR - yeah, but always going to be able to trade cannabis real estate assets, JAZZ - proven, medical efficacy, OGI - backing from big tobacco, GTI - best in class in the United States. Trul - Florida medical I guess.
I sold a couple thousand shares of PLTR around $24 in 2021-2022 and moved it into GTI/Cresco/Trul (+MedMen) on the way down. Also had a fat sack of shitcoin run through my wallets in the early days when I was deep in the game during college. Timing is everything. I'd be retired on an island in my 30s if I had kept a fraction of that. I have nothing to show for it other than a halfway decent retirement account for my age/income lol
For me, GTI has the cleanest balance sheet in the entire space. If you’re planning to rotate some, keep in mind that they report Q1 earnings tomorrow after the close (could go either way). GTI is my main position. After that, my second and third largest positions are HITI and MSOX. I still hold a small position in TLRY because I’m betting on their European expansion. I just hope Irwin stops diluting the hell out of everyone.
Just a reminder GTI is forecasting mid-single digit declines this quarter. Ben usually doesn’t talk much but glad the calls are back and hoping he shares a little bit of the playbook with us
GTI never goes up on earnings, and from what we are seeing industry wide (price compression eating into margins) it's becoming increasingly difficult to turn a profit. I'm not expecting shit.
Anyone getting hyped about GTI and TRUL earnings on the 6th, 7th? Can't wait to listen to Ben and Kim this week.
Not exactly sure what the exchanges would look at, would unpaid tax liabilities be a consideration. That would be my reason for GTI being at the head of the line.
All signs are pointing towards Trulieve being the first, but I wouldn't be surprised if Curaleaf beats them to the punch thanks to their TSX listing. I'm not sure if Curaleaf has submitted their application on the same day the DEA website went live or later on, but Trulieve did it on the first day, GTI only submitted theirs today.
From what I can gather it will be a race for who can uplist first and preference will be for "*MSO’s like GTI with better balance sheets"* I think the top three to up list will be GTII, TRUL, CURA. I'm betting on GTII to be first.. but what do I know.
If uplisting comes into play, would the exchanges give more consideration to MSO’s like GTI with better balance sheets or accept all companies? It’s hard to believe GTI has a lowly market cap of 1.8 Billion. Even 5X would only be 9 Billion valuation.
Looks like the market makers want to land at 5$ MSOS. Maybe Curaleaf can eat major shit and GTI and TRUL can rally a bit.
To answer your question indirectly…. GTI just announced an additional $100M stock buyback 8 days ago….
My thought is that it doesn’t matter because it doesn’t really do anything for share price. GTI stellar as always and it often goes down. Sector is retarded.
CL makes me nervous. I never know what to expect from them around Earnings... But with GTI, I expect a great report and conference call, positive for SP. Yes, I'm biased when it comes to Greenthumb. lol
I have been in TS since I started leaning into the MSO’s over LP’s. So yea, my avg is not ideal, but I have kept adding and avg’ing down. Emotionally, I am pulling for GTI and Terra the most.
Thoughts on upcoming CL and GTI financials ?
**escheduling Only (2-3 years)** |Stock|Current|Target|Upside| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |GTI|C$11.27|C$19-22|\+70-95%| |Trulieve|C$13.00|C$24-30|\+85-130%| |Curaleaf|C$4.69|C$3.20-4.50|\-30 to -4%| |Cresco|C$1.60|C$3.00-4.30|\+88-169%| |TSND|C$1.07|C$1.20-1.85|\+12-73%| **Rescheduling + Uplisting (2-3 years)** |Stock|Current|Target|Upside| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |GTI|C$11.27|C$32-40|\+185-255%| |Trulieve|C$13.00|C$36-50|\+175-285%| |Curaleaf|C$4.69|C$5.90-8.50|\+26-81%| |Cresco|C$1.60|C$5.00-6.50|\+213-306%| |TSND|C$1.07|C$1.95-2.80|\+82-162%|
**SCENARIO 1: FULL RESCHEDULING ONLY (no uplisting)** For each company, the analysis combines: * Forward 280E elimination on all revenue (not just medical) * Sector multiple expansion (4-5x EBITDA → 7-9x) * Earnings flow-through to GAAP * Lower cost of capital * Some retroactive relief possibility (call it 30% probability included) **GTI** * 2026 normalized EBITDA estimate: $400-450M (with full 280E removed) * Sector multiple: 8x EBITDA = $3.2-3.6B EV * Plus net cash position: \~$60M * Implied market cap: $3.3-3.7B * Per share: \~C$19-21 USD ÷ 232M shares * **Target range: C$19-22 CAD** * **Upside from current: +70-95%** * **Upside from your entry: +106-139%** **Trulieve (** * 2026 normalized EBITDA: $500-550M (Trulieve has biggest tax benefit) * Sector multiple: 7-8x EBITDA = $3.5-4.4B EV * Net debt: \~$70M * Implied market cap: $3.4-4.3B * Per share: \~$18-22 USD ÷ 192M shares * **Target range: C$24-30 CAD** * **Upside from current: +85-130%** **Curaleaf** * 2026 normalized EBITDA: $350-400M * Sector multiple: 7-8x EBITDA = $2.45-3.2B EV * Net debt: $657M (significant) * Implied market cap: $1.8-2.5B * Per share: \~$2.30-3.20 USD ÷ 775M shares * **Target range: C$3.20-4.50 CAD** * **Downside/flat from current: -30 to -4%** Note: Curaleaf has the most disappointing math because it's already trading at 14x EBITDA. Multiple compression to 8x sector average actually hurts them even with EBITDA growth. This is the "already priced in" problem. **Cresco** * 2026 normalized EBITDA: $200-230M * Sector multiple: 7-8x EBITDA = $1.4-1.84B EV * Net debt: $337M * Implied market cap: $1.06-1.5B * Per share: \~$2.20-3.10 USD ÷ 445M shares * **Target range: C$3.00-4.30 CAD** * **Upside from current: +88-169%** **TerrAscend** * 2026 normalized EBITDA: $90-110M (modest growth) * Sector multiple: 7-8x EBITDA = $630-880M EV * Net debt: $179M * Implied market cap: $451-701M * Per share: \~$0.85-1.30 USD ÷ 372M shares * **Target range: C$1.20-1.85 CAD** * **Upside from current: +12-73%**
GTI heating up. Just need Verano to wake up!
For 2027 before they said 0.16 now they say 0.10. Every other company has earnings improving. Weird. How on earth is this “price compression”? Every other company sees higher earnings in 2 yrs except for GTI?
You are right. I should diversify and buy some GTI.
read the report. They model GTI as (2025, 2026e, 2027e) = (0.49, 0.10, 0.10). Trulieve (-0.57, 0.12, 0.27). Get even grandular and the estimate for GTI before adjustment were (0.49, 0.01, 0.16). Net Income for GTI in (2025, 2026e, 2027e) = (114.2M, 22.7M, 24.3M). The prior estimate for 2027 was 37.6M. They are modelling that eps will get worse in 2026 and netincome gets worse in 2027. bizzare. Every other company metric all improve.
The current projections: EPS est Company 2025 2026e 2027e GTII 0.49 0.10 0.10 TRUL (0.57) 0.12 0.27 Are GTI's numbers wrong here
Yes they recently expanded their trial to the whole state of Minnesota. They are "hemp" drinks in the US though, to be specific (because the arbitrary difference in the US matters). Another important company that is one of the most aggressive in pursuing hemp beverages in the US is Circle K. Their parent company is a major player in Canada, with a long history with the Canadian cannabis sector. I am sure they will be pushing for expansion of access to beverages. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alimentation\_Couche-Tard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alimentation_Couche-Tard) Before trying to partner with Green Thumb at Circle K stores in the US, they were trying to do the same deal with Fire & Flower in Canada. [https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/alimentation-couche-tard-announces-a-strategic-investment-in-fire--flower-a-leading-cannabis-retailer-300889989.html](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/alimentation-couche-tard-announces-a-strategic-investment-in-fire--flower-a-leading-cannabis-retailer-300889989.html) [https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/fire-amp-flower-launches-pilot-with-alimentation-couche-tard-through-circle-k-co-located-stores-857428328.html](https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/fire-amp-flower-launches-pilot-with-alimentation-couche-tard-through-circle-k-co-located-stores-857428328.html) Fire & Flower was connected to Aphria early on. Early investors in Aphria like Poseidon Asset Management are now also investors in GTI/RYM, who are currently expanding through Circle K. Fire & Flower's other biggest investor was Aphria insider Shawn Dym, who has stayed on lots of cannabis companies with Aphria's former President Jakob Ripshtein after they both left Aphria. With Ripshtein being known for his liquor connections (Diageo).
Wow. Did I bet on the right horse in Trulieve. Kim seems to have lucked into a medical first, 280E exempt rollout. My eyes are on the Big 5. Trulieve, GTI, Curaleaf, Cresco and Verano. Have a fantastic day everyone 🦬📈🌿🚀
>A 10% market share Where do they have anywhere near 10% market share? Minnesota for now, because literally no other company is allowed there except vireo and GTI. Check the latest OMMU numbers and you'll be very disappointed if you think they're even breaking 5% of products sold there. >Especially if they can do interstate commerce allowing to cut costs But if they can do it, everyone else will already be doing it. I am honestly asking how GTI is going to grow with their current model. They're printing cash now with limited license states and border dispensaries. But how long are those opportunities going to last? If they actually had just one market where they actually competed with other MSOs in major metro areas and won, there would be so.e evidence they have some kind of brand power.
i don't get it either? i own both, but still. Even with all the good points brought up by posters below, GTI is a well run company and will be one of the winners IMO. this whole medical recreational nonsense could be settled by July 14th.
This is very much true for the other 2 in the top three though. Trulieve: * \~234 stores. 8 States. * \~167 (72%) are in Florida * 11 new stores opened last year * 10 of which were outside of Florida (Ohio, Arizona, Georgia). That shows a growth plan focusing on states other than Florida. So that right there, is part of your answer. * Pending Approval for Cultivation, Manufacturing, and Dist. in Texas (no stores currently). Green Thumb: * 113 Stores, 13 states (5 more than Trulieve) * 20 of these stores are in Florida and face the exact same issue that you cited for trulieve * 11 are in Nevada, which faces a much worse issue than Florida due to the massive drop in Vegas tourism * 6-7 are in Massachusetts. Mass. has a new bill which increases the number of licenses allowed and promotes the opening of more small businesses. This will lead to more competition and (once S3 for AU) price compression CureLeaf: * 160 stores, 12 states * 71 stores in Florida (44% versus TCNNF's 72%, but still very high) So, Trulieve is definitely in fewer states than the other 2, but only by a handful. Yes they are majority allocated in Florida. This can certainly be a weakness, but it can also be a strength if things turn around in Florida (future adult use, improved medical process/cost, increase acceptance/use due to federal rescheduling). It is also pending approval in Texas. Green Thumb is already active in Texas, but they did that through an acquisition. Green Thumb and Curaleaf are most definitely more diversified in their states. Green Thumb also has a very positive net income. Trulieve also has substantially more stores in total (almost all in Florida). Regarding growth, Trulieve can leverage their 256M in Cash to acquire operators in other states and expand their footprint, as the others have done. They can also apply and be granted licenses in other states just as they have already done (eg. Texas). Regarding Florida, one of two things will happen: 1. Things don't get better in Florida and they begin shutting down unprofitable stores (which they have likely been dragging on in anticipation of government reform causing a surge in use) 2. Things DO get better in Florida and the scale of use and the scale of their dominance in market-share there are highly positive. All that to say, GTI clearly has a better balance sheet and the better buy. But there is plenty of opportunity for growth for Trulieve and I wouldn't say it's a "Bad buy". I just would hedge my investment through other MSOs or an ETF
Pretty bullish now that we finally got schedule 3(even if it's just partial) but I want to see the whole plant rescheduled and these MSOs treated as federally LEGAL businesses so they can uplist. If they do uplist, I'll split my MSOS shares into GTI and TCNNF since I will have no reason to hold the ETF anymore.
If the IRS does let marijuana companies receive refunds for 280E, I hope GTI can recoup everything they paid and doesnt get punished for doing the right thing. I’ve heard that Marijuana companies are, in some cases, filing protective claims to secure their positions for 2020-2022, particularly as some 2022 tax years are approaching expiration.
...Ben posts about GTI and RYM almost every day?
That's my point though? Glass House is just in California, where they are doing well financially and are an extremely low cost grower. I'm saying that Trulieve would need to divest their growing, because Glass House flower (and others from interstate) would be insanely cheaper than what they can currently grow in Florida. An MSO partnering with Glass House (if interstate happens) would put them in back into a strong position in California while simultaneously securing them low cost biomass for their other markets so that they can divest their vertical intergration. Or they could partner with some other low cost grower from another state. My point being that the current vertically integrated model of a company like Trulieve would be devastated by interstate commerce. GTI is another company that seems absolutely safe by many, but still sells tons in high price per gram markets that could easily get flipped on their head with any sort of interstate commerce.
Yea that could definitely make sense. I really don't see them pursuing the exact same business model as MSOs. LPs have previously been connected to those sort of huge grow companies (Sunniva, Copperstate, etc.) that'd make sense for interstate. I think Copperstate still seems like a good acquisition target if interstate happens, and I think Glass House is prime target due to their low cost growing. If interstate happens, a company like Trulieve better partner with Glass House or someone similar immediately. Or if LPs do just go for the MSO model, there's lots of ways for LPs to do stuff in the US that isn't even in direct competition with the current MSOs. Plenty of states they aren't even in. I think the idea that anything besides a "tier 1" isn't valuable is ridiculous. Most of the companies with decent financials are probably smaller companies that didn't take on massive debt loads to expand into markets, only to pull out of half of them. Everyone here is so often focused on who has the most revenue. I'd have to look for them, but there were surveys not super long ago where there was a decent percentage of cannabis companies that claimed they turned a profit. I can't remember but like 25%+. We know practically zero of those were publicly listed MSOs. And not only that, but there are probably tons of distressed assets to pick up right now. Including some recent MSOs lol Obviously this is at least part of the strategy, considering that's exactly what SNDL and Cronos (via Gotham Green) are doing. A few smaller operators that are pieced together could have plenty of revenue, while not having massive debt to pay off. Or as you say, maybe they don't want to be in retail whatsoever. Why wouldn't a company like Tilray/CGC not leverage their beverage retail connections to focus on federally legal hemp products? Several LPs already sell low dose hemp edibles. Tilray is already partnered with CWEB. LPs could focus on getting their low dose hemp products in a store like Walmart, where they could sell recreational beverages, hemp supplements over the counter, and also pharmaceutical hemp products via in-store pharmacies. That fits their current business trajectories way better than acquiring themselves into what MSOs are currently doing. Or how about just doing a RYM/GTI type setup. What is Tilray doing with MedMen right now? How about licensing that brand to an MSO, while also launching MedMen hemp products through Tilray? Could be just waiting for the hemp situation to resolve, which of course people have questions about. I'm personally extremely confident low dose products are going to continue to be sold in regular retail. Or how about LPs just acquire brands? MSOs could have just done a great job helping expand plenty of outside cannabis brands over the years, which are then just going to get bought by other companies. Insiders like Jason Wild, the Aphria guys, Michael Auerbach, etc have all made investments in brands in recent years. I feel like we could be creative with these sort of discussions if people weren't so desperate to shoot down any idea that the current largest revenue MSOs might not be the only viable way to make money in the US cannabis market.