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What’s awesome about GTI is even with reform near term, other MSOs still have to deal with crushing debt hitting now through early 2026. Expect some of them to go away fully / partially, and they’re sitting on $200M+ on cash. They’ve been adding to that cash recently and are not spending, so primed for growth.
Here’s to hoping we get Cole into the DEA head by July 😅…been a long saga. At this point, I just want someone at the helm so they can give a more clear sense of what will or won’t be done. Some of the state momentum is nice, but early days and PA has disappointed often before. The Pew Research was promising, GOP voter support for reform is in a strong place. And as the population ages, a lot of voters against it will no longer be with us (so that drives more incrementally). For anyone new here, I would caution on taking a basket investment approach. Most of the MSOs (even if 280E liabilities are forgiven, which is not certain) have less than $0.40 for every $1.00 in current liabilities. And they’re not profitable either, so the cash position (unless taking on more debt) gets worse over time. A lot of that debt is coming due in the next year. The ETFs are not weighted for the best operators. Common wisdom is that GTI (profitable and paying all 289E already, with $200M+ in cash; exceeding current debt) and Truleive (massive FL potential with legalization, massive footprint, and still manageable debt) are the two best options for MSOs. Cresco has an okay balance sheet as well. Others look very risky.
Its funny I made all my money with CGC/Aphria as well which turned out to be dud companies yet I'm down a decent amount on GTI which actually produces cash with a solid balance sheet - the irony LOL
Correct, I’ve been essentially swapping ACB/GTI trading it kinda like a spread, minus the pair trade (not shorting these companies). But I’ve been rolling the ACB a lot by writing calls against it, purchasing calls (different strike and expiry), writing outs, all along with keeping an eye on how GTI moves. I have a ridiculous amount of capital GTI longterm (along with Trulieve about 1/4th the size and a tiny OGI). In the unlikely event something big actually happens with MSOs in the states I’ll reap the rewards on my GTI/Trul, but if nothing happens I’ll keep rolling the ‘trade able’ part of my capital. Back in the day all of this would be put into leveraged long/short pair spreads, but I don’t have the time or energy to do that anymore.
They’re going away. GTI, TL and Cresco will make it, imo.
GTI @ $8.75 and out ... see you at the baggage checkout later
Anyone have any opinions on Ascend Wellness Holdings after they recently secured more financing? I current only the obvious one (GTI) and my higher risk higher reward MSO is Ascend. Any feedback would be appreciated!
Well everything for my hobby, cycling, coming from China has gone up ma man….oh wait my second hobby my Golf GTI aftermarket stuff has gone up up and away
I’m glad you still are! I still carry mild guilt for abandoning them for GTI and TCNNF
If it's a real run, based on actual reform, IMO Cresco will likely outrun GTI and Trulieve. But it's a higher risk play in case it's just a pump and dump.
Ha yeah my average on GTI is about $7.80 so I’m close to -30% as well , and that’s one of the better ones.
Yeah my GTI position is at -30% as well
All of AYR’s assets are secured, so a big deal with a GTI makes more sense than some sort of debtor in possession liquidation. Almost any scenario from here leaves AYR shareholders with nothing.
Makes sense for all the major players and new entrants to look at them. My assumption is Trulieve already has too many stores that are in close proximity to Ayr's so might be too much geographical overlap for them to be serious bidders. But I haven't done the work to see if this is true or not. GTI has much better chance with their lower footprint to have stores spread out more and not in competition to their own dispensaries. I can see Sunburn or other private/smaller operators going after the cultivation assets. MSOS will want the storefronts and they could outbid players like Sunburn if push came to shove
If a major competitor like GTI were looking at those stores, would it make sense for Trulieve to out-bid them? There's not much point of hoarding cash from not paying your taxes if you aren't going to use it for something, right? My prediction for AYR's Florida assets is that at least some of them end up with Sunburn.
What we can trust is if it makes sense to buy, GTI will do it; if it makes sense not to buy - GTI won’t do it. These guys just get it right - selling more units while prices fall to offset, profitable, not over investing in FL and then amendment 3 didn’t go through, etc.
Ahh good catch, though it's not extra, it's the appropriate number of H's. I keep forgetting GTI's is spelled wrong.
GTI has mentioned that they will be using some future capex spend for Florida expansion. Also I've seen that they opened some more grow rooms in Ocala to fuel the supply of the new stores they've opened. So absolutely they want to expand Florida so why not buy distressed assets like Ayr. They'll have the ability to absorb 67 stores for probably less than $20M if its under receivership. Its an option, not saying it will 100% happen but its a cheap way to expand in an area they are already looking to do so.
Man, forget Tillray, they're junk!!! I've done well swapping ACB and GTI, rolling the spread when it diverges and converges and loaded up dumping a big portion of GTI last week when ACB bottomed, immediately selling further out calls and using those proceeds to purchased short-dated lower strikes.
Does GTI even want them? We haven't seen the bottoming out in this sector; prices, sales. etc.
[https://ir.ayrwellness.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/259/ayr-wellness-provides-update-on-senior-note-interest-payment](https://ir.ayrwellness.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/259/ayr-wellness-provides-update-on-senior-note-interest-payment) What do you think are the Vegas odds that GTI buys Ayr's Florida assets for pennies on the dollar when they enter receivership?
Got to love Ben Kovler for leading the charge on this and pressuring Advisorshares to shut down MSOX. As per GTI's last earnings call: >I think in the buyback, it is sometimes a little bit tricky to look at. You have got to be a little careful in terms of the size. And so, with our limits in terms of daily liquidity and things like that, trying to see the bigger picture and take a little bit more of a longer term, meaning, even if we buy up to the max in the open market, there could be a chance bigger blocks show up. And there are larger blocks of stock out there that could come available for sale that we would be very interested in buying as a strategic asset for the business in the best interest of shareholders. So, it could be an opportunity to collect $0.75 when playing in one way only gets us a nickel or a dime. Ben has his sights squarely at MSOS/MSOX for his buyback program. I know in the past he has told Dan/Noah to call GTI whenever they wanted to sell GTI and rebalance, that they would rebuy from them directly. But after they brushed him off it looks like he is taking it a step further to try and unwind the funds (at least MSOX) to get bigger chunks of stock to buyback.
Charlie is cool, but Ben and his guys know their way around a balance sheet/cap mgmt. I hold both, but I've trimmed Cresco a few times on their big moves and that cash slowly moves its way into GTI. I'm aiming for a 2:1-3:1 GTI:Cresco/Trul portfolio going forward. I'm a lot more comfortable going long GTI vs the other two combined. CRLBF's debt and Kim's desperation moves are concerning going into the next year or two.
Just a random thought from GTI discussions below. GTI probably thinks that THCa flower will be going away soon. Otherwise they would've included their Dogwalkers pre-roll brand in their hemp licensing deal with Agrify. The only thing GTI lobbies for is [cannabis-related provisions in the Farm Bill](https://lda.senate.gov/filings/public/filing/e33359dc-40ac-4cba-9cd9-f45171061d57/print/), so I would hope they have good grasp on what to expect from it. The lobbying firm they are using is a major one that also lobbies for Altria, AB InBev, Monsanto, and DoorDash (among many others). They are the [second largest lobbying firm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akin_Gump_Strauss_Hauer_%26_Feld) in the country according to wikipedia, with a major presence in Texas.
How does Cresco/Trulieve have "branding unlike any other"? Between them they have one single overpriced hemp product (Trulieve's Onward drink). Meanwhile there are tons of hemp companies creating brand equity across the entire country. I personally think MSOs are way way behind on branding. Nobody buying dispensary flower really cares about brands. It's all about price/THC ratio with flower. In my opinion, if you want to push a brand, you need hemp products that are sold all over the country. GTI has realized this, and has licensed their brands to be used in hemp products through Agrify. Between dogwalkers, rythym, incredibles, senorita, beboe, etc. I'd say just GTI by itself is leagues ahead of a combined Cresco/Trulieve when we are talking about branding.
I'm very aware of that. They just announced a lease agreement and that their plan with the lease agreement was to expand their footprint using stores adjacent to Circle K. [Green Thumb to Launch “RISE Express” Dispensaries](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/10/19/2537516/0/en/Green-Thumb-to-Launch-RISE-Express-Dispensaries-in-Florida.html) >"...announced **plans to expand** its medical retail footprint in Florida through a lease agreement with Circle K, the global convenience store retailer. Starting in 2023, Green Thumb **plans to launch its test and learn phase of the rollout** with approximately ten “RISE Express” branded dispensaries adjacent to Circle K stores in various Florida locations." The material portion of this announcement was about the lease agreement. Then they said their plan would be to launch a "test and learn phase" in 2023. They kind of had to let people know the material change that they made a lease deal with Circle K. And of course they'd need to explain to shareholders what their plan was with the lease agreement. At the time, there was nothing indicating this would be an issue with Florida. They had previously approved plenty of cannabis companies right to convenience stores and stuff. But they did have a problem, and it's been a public fight ever since. Nobody is trying to hide anything here though. Idk I guess you could call that a "lie" if you want to, but I don't see it that way. Nor do I think it has any material impact on my view of GTI as a company. Especially considering GTI's current plans with hemp beverages align very well with Circle K's current plans with hemp beverages.
They announced the partnership before the commission and the state said “no”. You should know that if you’re long. I wouldn’t say anything negative about GTI if I thought what we post here affects the price but remember, excluding campaign contributions, trulieve’s OCF was almost $100 million more than GTI’s last fiscal year. Still I’m not being obtuse, it’s impossible to argue GTi isn’t the best MSO…I just think it’s close.
Rivers and Cresco have a strong financial incentive to say those things publicly. Do you think this treasury is going to give a massive tax break to cannabis companies selling high-dose cannabis products for recreational purposes? When most recreational states are blue states? I don't. If they do they're also going to have to go back and correct taxes for hundreds of cannabis companies. The ones that have paid and the ones that haven't. They don't have the manpower or the willpower to do that. In my opinion it is way way more likely they just tell people to pay the taxes that they owe. These companies knew they were selling a controlled substance and were subjected to 280e. It's nobodies fault but their own. The board resignations were a long time ago, but I agree those are concerning. Nothing ever came from it though, and GTI is still chugging along. I am actually extremely bullish on their Circle K connection, as I have commented a lot recently about how Circle K is actively moving into selling hemp beverages. So that relationship could be very good for GTI/Agrify. What did they lie about in regards to Circle K?
Rivers and Cresco say everyone agrees it’ll end in litigation with the treasury. But no, I wasn’t comparing GTI and Cresco directly. GTI’s tax policy, which I agree is a positive, has to be weighed against the board resignations, the Circle K lie and a small handful of other things. Cresco also has a better revenue per storefront. I’m not saying I like the tax strategy from Cresco and TL but you guys who laugh off the notion that GTI isn’t the runaway best are blinded, imo. And I am long GTI in close proportion to my Cresco stake.
I’ve held both since 2018. I traded GTI over the years but always held cresco. I’ve continued to average down on both. I guess it depends on your time horizon. You could buy GTI from here on out and probably do pretty well. If you are looking for a trade and a quick flip, cresco will move quick if PA legalizes or if there is any positive news with S3 /Safe banking. I get the sense it could 4x from here pretty easily over a few months if things really move. Their cash position is actually pretty solid but agreed the debt is concerning. If another year goes by and no positive developments they could be in some trouble, maybe we put that at 25% chance of happening. Maybe 75% shot at some reform, progress, etc, fresh capital moves in and takes a fresh look at these valuations.
Question for my numbers nerds. Long time holder of Cresco and GTI (and very sad). Holding for the long run, 50/50 of my money in both companies. I like Charlie more than Ben, and like Cresco’s marketing and business plan more. But nervous about upcoming debt, and lack of profitability. I’m pretty nervous about 2026 when they have to start paying money back. If you were me, what would you do? Can Cresco weather the storm, or do you think I should re jig things? Not taking anything too seriously, but sometimes there are a few smart cookies here.
Matt Gaetz hired to lobby for Trulieve. MSOS had 2x avg volume today and volume continuing to go up. Sitting near all time lows. I think weed stocks pop off in the next 30 days. Only sector that hasn’t moved despite everything else ripping. Trulieve, GTI & Grow Gen are my picks
"They" don't? YES I DO! Who are you? What do you know??? I hope you have been long GTI and maybe Agrify too!!!
What about cresco labs? I enjoy their products. Love GTI, but liquidated my weed stock portfolio in 2019
So if the farm bill gets sorted and the hemp market gets regulated, do we think GTI just buys a ton of the profitable and successful hemp companies though agrify to grow revenues? Would they not look at who has the best products/sales in a state like Texas and just buy them, pour cash in and then try to dominate the hemp side to become and Cannabis and Hemp company? Again this only after clear changes to the farm bill.
MRMD longer term might work. GTI also. HITI.
Just comes down to liquidity. GTI has $200M+ cash and profitable while paying all 280E; total debt is $250M but a large chunk isn’t due until 2029. And they always find a way to sell more units to offset price compression. They have the least risk as far as collapsing, Verano has like $0.17 for every $1.00 in debt and taxes owed, and isn’t profitable. Even if they don’t change their footprint at all or grow they survive.
MN screws GTI? What can they do in NY? GTI is a bit scary and can easily collapse a bit. I’m looking for a covid retest like all others did
What’s all this green shit on my Tru, GTI, MSOS, Cresco tickers!?!??
Stay away from MSOS and MSOx. Trul, GTI and cresco should make it through the consolidation/failures to come the next year or so.
Hang in there man, I think GTI at $7 long term will be good. The question is just how long is long 😂 What’s painful being a GTI investor is I actually think long term they benefit from stalled regulatory change. Rationale being others will die off sooner and new entrants face a ton of barriers. Slowly allows them to strengthen. Of course them strengthening doesn’t help share price at all haha…we need reform for that.
Glass house has pivoted to hemp converting to THCa flower GTI is also starting to with Agrify (maybe not flower yet but probably will happen in future). My opportunistic self sees GTI/AGFY acquiring VFF to sell cannabis into Europe and convert their texas facility to sell THCa in the US. But that is my pipe dream and dreams don't materialize in this sector
There was someone on twitter who was predicting that Trulieve, GTI and others would hit new all time lows. That was after the election when prices were twice what they are now. I didn’t believe it. Moral of this story: if you see predictions for cannabis stock prices accept the most pessimistic estimate.
Only solace I can take is I made a big tactical move swapping out most of my ACB into GTI right before earnings as I had previously made the tactical shift in March. I captured close to $3 in spread and I'm watching it to reverse it again as the spread has narrowed considerably.
The address in Des Plaines, IL, comes back to a place called GTI Energy when Googled. Their phone number is also different than it appears on this form here. "The Fastest Labs of South Austin" appears to be an actual lab in Austin, and the address and phone number are the same listed here.
I live near the Illinois address when I look it up it says GTI energy not what’s stated there. Also I work in substance use counseling in this area and do drug testing for some of our clients I have never heard of that location in Illinois. Now I don’t know everything in our area but that’s really close and the address isn’t listing the same thing as it’s listing on the document.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news OP, but TOS Mobile is actually superior because you CAN see level 2! Here’s $GTI, the PM volume leader thus far. https://preview.redd.it/s5j1sqf88h7f1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fcadbb5b47bd6e6f7d916c9058f999a0c67d213e
Since when? I have GTI in my schwab account
With the expected rally to come from this rumor circulating thjs weekend, wondering if I should sell all my GTI and TCNNF?
I’ve consistently averaged in on GTI as they’ve fallen, they’ll be around in the future regardless of how long reform takes. It’s likely other companies will die and that’s an opportunity for them, and new market entrants (well good luck there 🤣). That being said, I have losses - no gains. While GTI doesn’t need reform to survive, I do believe they need it for their stock price to appreciate materially. Nothing on the reform front has materialized yet. It’s really hard to see how long it will take. If you are going to invest in the US, GTI is the safest pick and over a long time frame there’s upside…but I’ve been waiting 5 years, so be prepared to not see appreciation for a long time.
won’t GTI get suspended today?
Top picks tonight: IXHL, ONDS, GTI and INTS.
GTI is the best company. That said, they are slipping and no one is rising. I’m talking company, not product.
$GTI tonight! I’m sure there will be a breakout soon
Always spewing that 'GTI is king' is kind of like how folks used to talk about Aphria in this group. It's a mediocre stock at best, and in what is currently the worst investment sector out there Y'all need to broaden your horizons. Odds for putting all your money on green at the roulette table are 35/1 and still better than turning a profit by buying and HODL'ing any company here ... ps .. odds get much worse buying into garbage like TSND and/or PLTH too!
Can we stop with comments like these? Literally every cannabis company, besides GTI, is a money burning dumpster fire when you consider the existence of 280E. Continuously commenting that cannabis companies are bad investments based on financials is like arguing with someone about which slot machine to play based on some irrelevant game mechanics. The fact that someone is here is already proof enough that they're willing to take the risk of cannabis stocks in the first place.
Why? This is from their last earnings curtesy of CannaInvestments.... QoQ: $27.0M to $29.2M / YoY: $26.4M to $29.2M *Rise here as positive OCF offset CapEx spend. Debt stands at $190.4M, income tax payable at $11.5M, and an uncertain tax position of $114.7M* I just don't get why anyone continues to put money into these companies with high debt loads and high unpaid taxes? There's nothing to suggest that 280e is going away at this point. Unless it does, companies with this kind of balance sheet are toast. Wait until a rescheduling announcement before you put money into a company like this, there will be plenty of upside even if you miss the first pop. Or just stick to GTI, which might be the only company still around in 3-5 years.
GTI. Rationale being: $200M in cash, positive cash flow, gross margins of 50% in last quarter even with compression (and managed to grow, even being flat is impressive). Only $106M in debt matures this year, remaining $146M not due until 2029. Which is incredible, they can pay all current liabilities and still have plenty left for growth. Also nothing in 280E owed. So don’t have that question.
If JW was the face of GTI it would prob 2x. Prob most legit ceo in industry.
Look at some of the Canada LPs that aren’t CGC or TLRY. Not a ton of investable companies in US other than GTI, might as well get international exposure. Safest would be CRON for balance sheet and pretty good business trajectory, negative EV but doesn’t burn cash. ACB good numbers but not really in rec - basically a Europe/austrlaia medical company (just historically was more of a Canadian LP and now just does medical). OGI and VFF high risk high reward but run well. oGI ceo on way out but BAT still backing. VFF ceo is buying shares everyday which is a good sign I think. Also TPB is kinda cannabis adjacent with zig zag but more nicotine. Has some cannabis investments. Good company. Terrascend I trust Jason wild but that’s basically the only reason to buy it.
Is the bottom in yet? I’m following a few names and they rarely move up or down for the last couple weeks. By all metrics Trulieve and GTI seem to be at fair value or below. I’m aware the sector could be demolished entirely at the stroke of Trump’s pen, but I also feel like if he just ignores cannabis entirely from here we must be near the bottom for most MSOs.
I’ve said all along GTI retests covid. I don’t see anything to stop it.
We are back to that point where GTI, our shining star, is down 50% since November. If you can call it our second, TCNNF down 75% since November. We're skirting just above total capitulation ATLs once again, either we bounce or this is going to be yet another painnnnful summer for longs. I really don't even know what we have to look forward to in the short term, Cole is as far as I can tell a red herring, hemp loophole could be major but I seriously doubt much will go in our favor (it'd take an outright national ban which is awful for consumers (citizens trapped in illegal states) and awful precedent for weed reform as a whole, but great for our companies surviving short term). Its really hard to justify keeping anything invested in this sector when all of our catalysts are the equivalent of throwing it all on black. No one knows anything, nothing is clear, we could get random good news and find an oasis or die of thirst from another mirage. Rest of the markets beat up names have already jumped 30% in the time this sector gave everything back from its ATLs once again. As usual the opportunity cost of investing in this sector is multiplicative.
Make me thing of Buffet's old saying. Buy companies that if they closed the stock market for 5 years you wouldn't be worried. Having said that, hemp and competition is clearly effecting companies through margin compression, GTI included.
GTI will be fine....or at least, the last one standing.
Not paying 280e. Only one that pays it and is profitable is GTI I believe
WRX was on my list. I was actually gonna buy a camero but they wouldnt give me 0% in 2020 so I bought the GTI. At this point I will probably buy German the rest of my life, become to accustomed to it.
That was my 2020 that got hit and I hated it from that day onwards, it was never the same. Bought a really expensive 2024 GTI last year I am totally in love with.
Yup, and once you get hit your valuable. My GTI got hit at a red light, nit to bad but I couldn't kick his ass. So I called a lawyer and they got me 300k. He should have just gotten out of the truck and fought me lol.
I think most of the tier ones will be fine and will actually benefit from the consolidation. GTI, TRUL, Cresco mainly.
I guess I’ll take that this as a way GTI gets attention 😂
Yahoo is never wrong 😂; Google had me thinking Cresco had bigger market cap than GTI
Good thing MSOS was selling GTI to buy Ayr this year. Even I knew not to do that
End of the month rebalances on the ETFs today and I've seen this GTI pattern so many times Might put in some bids down in the 6.7x to 6.8x CDN range, looking for a quick flip on the dump
This is what I did yesterday; I swapped out 1k from ACB to Greenthumb - putting me at 4250 and 10k respectively. I knew CGC would be garbage, and a lot of the CAD movers was short covering, but I really like ACB and have a variety of puts/long calls and covered calls - I think it will rally next month on earnings. And if it doesn't, I might buy back the covered LEAP calls if it peels off hard, or buy LEAP calls further out. If it really rallies hard I swap out my capital and dump it into GTI.
I buy GTI products from hemp sites already, particularly edibles and drinks. They don't seem to be shying away from the hemp market especially given their AGFY play.
GTI has been the most disciplined MSO and their reward for it is getting plundered at the bottom to prop up their competitors who were much more profligate
Everyone in here and on Twitter would be complaining about CNBS instead, since it offers the same basket of stocks via swaps(since no institutions can hold these stocks directly), with considerably less exposure to GTI, Trulieve, CURL and Cresco, more exposure to bottom tiers. As we saw on Monday with the US market closed but the Canadian market open: Tiers 1 like Green Thumb would be trading around 15k stocks per day. Fundamentally *NOTHING* would change with these stocks without these ETFs besides having even less daily volume, because where they are today is a by product of the lack of federal reforms for the cannabis industry, debt obligations and taxes piling up, and the farm bill Hemp industry taking a considerable chunk of their market share. I swear, whenever I go to that hellhole that is Twitter just to see what folks are talking about these stock, I keep feeling the of ripping my eyeballs out whenever people keeps saying that the ETF is the problem and that these stocks somehow would magically soar if the ETF were to shutdown. It's just madness.
Swapped out 1k shares from ACB to GTI today, the stocks have really diverged over the last month or so. Still have a shit ton of both, plus others. :/
As long as GTI maintains profitability and doesn’t do anything crazy with cash they’re good. That’s always been a nice thesis with them haha They don’t need reform to survive, BUT they do need reform for the stock price to appreciate 🥲
Worked up some technical analysis on GTI https://imgur.com/a/PCQIQk0
GTI has a problem that isn’t being discussed. The street always knows quarters in advance. They are so weak right now. I’m a holder and would not add any here. Frustrating.
I think Gh is too expensive for them. They are doing well and GTI doesn’t need to spend a premium
There are a lot of good matches with GTI/Agrify. Which to me is the amazing thing about how GTI got here. While everyone else is busy adding uncertain tax positions and struggling they are a kid in a candy store with their parents credit card.
I think another potential move for GTI/Agrify could be to partner with Glass House. Agrify has extraction and branded hemp products. They got rid of their cultivation assets. Glass House are great cultivators, and are just turning on a whole new greenhouse of cheap hemp biomass. They have said they would supply MSOs, and they aren't really a competitor to GTI because they are just in California. I'm biased because I'm also invested in Glass House, but i think they would be a very good match.
Rich people don't get to be rich people by looking out for poor people. Focusing on the moves the business makes is good. Thinking you know what is in Ben's mind is bad. What does being "the best" tend to mean for rich people? It tends to mean having the most money. So if Ben could make an obscene amount of money screwing over retail investors, I think he would. I'm an investor in GTI/Agrify, but I don't trust any CEO, and will keep a close eye on all of them. It's no different from trying to make money in Tesla. You can try to make money on a growth business, while assuming the top executive doesn't care about you and is going to do everything they can to enrich themselves along the way. Wanting to be "the best" in a capitalist society often means you need to exploit other people along the way. It's not always a merit based system. It's often about who is the most ruthless. There's a reason you don't want a CEO to hold all the voting rights, you want an independent board, and other routine governance stuff like that. Assuming a rich business executive is a selfish person is usually a good way to protect yourself.
>I don't think you need to think about it this hard to know Agrify is going to be doing more M&A. It's not like they have much of a current business (or the luxury of time) to just grow organically. The underlying point I'm making is that this would have been foreseen long before execution. Its not like with GTI where they probably had an abundance of M&A opportunities but decided not to pull the trigger. So with knowing that they would get here and be forced to make deals - my underlying thesis is the acquisition targets are already done and its just a matter of time to transact. Conversations have already happened is what I'm implying >Imo you have too much faith in CEOs caring about retail shareholders though I dont believe I do. I trust Ben, hence why I'm invested in both GTI & Agrify. I don't trust Ben because I think he is going to do the best for me as a shareholder. I trust him because he is the smartest man in the room and an amazing capital allocator that's showing he is steps ahead of everyone else. I guarantee you this is fun for him and he has an ego that he wants to be the best. He got $30M of cannabis money into a nasdaq listed company for him to play with - that is extremely impressive and no other CEO in the industry is even close to making moves like that. That is why I'm investing in his companies.
Agrify/GTI - Much more to come, my guess has to be M&A To start, not telling anyone what to do. This is not investment advice and I'm not telling you to invest or not in this stock. I'm just sharing information with what I've researched from filings and reading opinions from others smarter than me **Original loan agreement between GTI and Agrify:** On Nov 5, 2024 GTI entered into an agreement to provide a $20M secured not to Agrify which $10M was drawn immediately [https://ir.agrify.com/news-releases/news-release-details/agrify-secures-financing-green-thumb-industries-and-announces](https://ir.agrify.com/news-releases/news-release-details/agrify-secures-financing-green-thumb-industries-and-announces) >Board of Directors has approved a $20 million convertible secured note (the “Financing”), of which $10M will be drawn upon at closing, from a wholly-owned subsidiary of Green Thumb Industries Inc. (“Green Thumb”) (CSE: GTII) (OTCQX: GTBIF), [https://ir.agrify.com/static-files/270e1c73-1d3a-4038-91a4-f6c16aec5e37](https://ir.agrify.com/static-files/270e1c73-1d3a-4038-91a4-f6c16aec5e37) In the filings they say GTI can elect to convert the note to equity at a conversion price of $3.158 >If the Investor elects to convert the Note, the conversion price per share will be $3.158, subject to customary adjustments for certain corporate events. The conversion of the Note will be subject to certain customary conditions and the receipt of stockholder approval to the extent necessary under Nasdaq listing rules. It also states that due to limitations, GTI can not own more than 49.99% of the outstading shares **May 20, 2025 Agreement:** Recently they entered into an agreement where Agrify purchased the Incredibles branding plus entering into a licensing agreement with GTI for Rythm, Beboe, Incredibles. [https://ir.agrify.com/static-files/48964259-357c-4420-b592-930065390677](https://ir.agrify.com/static-files/48964259-357c-4420-b592-930065390677) They issued a new $30M convertible loan - which is senior except to the original $20M loan >On May 22, 2025, the Company issued Secured Convertible Notes with an aggregate original principal amount of $30.0 million (collectively the “Notes”) to RSLGH, LLC (“RSLGH”), an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Green Thumb, and to certain other accredited investors. Each Note is a secured obligation of the Company and will rank senior to all indebtedness of the Company except for the Secured Convertible Note issued to RSLGH on November 5, 2024 (the “Existing Note”), with which rank on parity with the Notes. The Notes will mature on November 22, 2026 and will contain a 10.0% annualized interest rate, with interest to be paid on the first calendar day of each September and March while the Note is outstanding, in Pre-Funded Warrants, beginning September 1, 2025. The principal amount of the Note will be payable on the maturity date. They put in a clause that the original loan still have the same conversion price >Amendment to Convertible Note As previously disclosed, on November 5, 2024, the Company issued the Existing Note to RSLGH. On May 22, 2025, the Company and RSLGH entered into a second amendment to the Existing Note (the “Existing Note Amendment”). The Existing Note Amendment amended the terms of the Existing Note to, among other things, (i) permit RSLGH to elect, subject to any required approvals under Nasdaq listing rules, to receive Pre-Funded Warrants in lieu of shares of Common Stock upon conversion of the Existing Note at a conversion price equal to the existing conversion price under the Note of $3.158 less the $0.001 exercise price of each Pre-Funded Warrant, and (ii) provide that the Existing Note ranks on parity with the Notes. **Why is all this important:** [**https://ir.agrify.com/static-files/48964259-357c-4420-b592-930065390677**](https://ir.agrify.com/static-files/48964259-357c-4420-b592-930065390677) GTI owns 34% of equity in Agrify >Green Thumb is an indirect owner of 34% of the outstanding shares of common stock of the Company (“Common Stock”), and Benjamin Kovler, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Green Thumb, serves as Chairman and Interim Chief Executive Officer of the Company GTI in unable to own more than 49.99% of commons shares in Agrify as per regulations >. The Pre-Funded Warrants may not be exercised to the extent that the holder, together with its affiliates, would beneficially own more than 49.99% of the number of shares of Common Stock outstanding immediately after giving effect to such exercise. * GTI is sitting on pre-funded warrants they are EXTREMELY IN THE MONEY ($3.158 vs $23 share price today) * It would be stupid not to convert these as it leaves a whole bunch of equity on the table for GTI and their shareholders * However they can't convert these as the capital structure stands as it would put them way over 50% ownership The solution: 1. Ben/GTI need to increase the share float in Agrify in order to exercise and stay compliant 2. Only logical way for this to happen is via accretive M&A with issuing shares (simply diluting shares for cash would devastate the share price 3. Today - they could acquire more hemp companies, LPs with Euro exposure or European assets, or horizontal companies that don't touch the plant (pick and shovel plays) and still keep their NASDAQ listing in tact. This makes the most sense to me today, and as laws change the M&A pool should widen to add more capabilities I don't think Ben would have done all this to not realize he would have a problem with the share float. He has proven he is smart enough to think many steps in advance. The question is how will he increase the float to make Agrify shareholders happy and give GTI shareholders the benefit of all this equity they have on the balance sheet Feel free to throw rocks at this in case I have a blind spot or am wrong on this
GTI always safe haha, just hope returns come sooner rather than later 🥳
Its more than Hemp was my statement. Hemp is part of the story but more to come. It will be a holding company for hemp assets, European/LP assets/horizontal & tertiary cannabis assets and eventually be GTI's uplisting vehicle. Its not one or the other, can be both
This would go directly against your statements from yesterday. You explicitly said Agrify was not about hemp edibles, beverages, or THCa flower, and that they are just setting up to expand beyond hemp products. I was the one saying they are going to expand more into hemp products. Your comments: >"This is much bigger than edibles and beverages, and no I'm not talking about THCa flower." >"Ben needs much more than a hemp company for this to be worth it" "What if its not a hemp company but instead a holding company." "Remember when I said GTI wanted to **drag Boston Beer into cannabis. Well this is what the plan was and its only the early stages. More to come"** Your "more to come" statements are explicitly about Agrify **not pursuing hemp** but somehow shifting into cannabis (despite them being a NASDAQ company). Stop moving the goalposts. You used to say hemp beverages were a complete dead end as a product. Now you are saying they are going to be a big market, but just that they will be owned by alcohol companies. You see the writing on the wall that you were wrong about hemp beverages, so you are slowly shifting your position into the one that I've had the entire time.
To add to your point about possibly acquiring Lifted. Yes this could be a strategy that can be leveraged with Agrify. Agrify is GTI's ring fenced strategy for anything the can buy that uplists immediately. On the last GTI call Ben noted M&A interest from horizontal players and Europe was starting to become attractive. So as per our conversation yesterday, there is more to come.
I think I understand licensing deals lol have you figured out what registered shareholders are yet? Or still think only 50 people in the world own shares in Agrify? GTI now only has the rights to the products that are sold as **cannabis products.** Agrify now owns the brand, which had **already been licensed out by GTI to Lifted to sell hemp product**s. GTI sells **cannabis products**. Agrify sells **hemp products.** Lifted sells **hemp products** Agrify is going to one of the following: * Continue to partner with Lifted and have them sell their products. * Cancel the deal with Lifted and only sell Incredibles through Agrify. * Roll up Lifted into Agrify.
You seem to be missing the point of this whole thing. Agrify just owns the right to the brand name and is licensing it back to GTI to use it on their products. See the edit I added to my original comment
With GTI selling the Incredibles brand to Agrify to use for hemp (but GTI licensing it back for cannabis products) I wonder where this leaves Lifted Partners? GTI was already licensing the Incredibles brand to Lifted to use for hemp products. You can still see multiple Incredibles gummies products being sold on Lifted's website (Urb Finest Flowers).