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Next week should be a great week for Trulieve. I expect Trul will surpass GTI in SP. If this happens, I'll go all in on Greenthumb...
I’m waiting biggly for GTI about $5 and Verano below .75. It will happen.
I've been adding only GTI on the drops below 6 usd. No selling other than trimming Cresco/Trul to bank some more cash for the inevitable next drop to the lows. We aren't moving up big until this admin is gutted. Slight chance of a political play before the midterms, but a lot of R-voters are coming around to the fact that conservatives will not budge on social issues fueled by religious fuckshit within the party.
So let me ask you this, when you talk about product, what is it to you? In my opinion it’s a commodity. That’s why prices of flower etc will continue to drop. Bad for businesses, hard on margins. And There isn’t any product differentiation or moats amongst companies. And as far as LPs they won’t be able to export to US anytime soon. So in my opinion it’s branding that wins, and similar to coffee but with the flower being the “beans”. I think strongest brand gets acquired first and others get rolled up. And to be the strongest brand you have to compete in unlimited licensed states so right there I think GTI and trulieve are crossed off. Although GTI might be able to stand on its own without being acquired. Idk everyone is different. Different perspectives. But that’s my opinion.
GTI also moving forward in process for medical license (along with Cresco) https://www.cannabisequipmentnews.com/manufacturing/news/22964180/texas-awards-additional-cannabis-licenses
Which of us is inventing our own narratives? You said a GTI insider said rescheduling was 100% in 2026. Bit this is what he actually said: https://x.com/Bkov9/status/2026822738115977239 I agree that it's highly likely to happen. All I said was that the AG transition adds a bit of near term uncertainty. And you flipped your lid to that. Take a breath, mate. You don't need to live your life with so much hostility.
Please show me where named insiders of GTI said its 100%.
Lol well get used to it, GTI also joined the ranks yesterday, with Trulieve and Verano.
I agree with this assessment...TRUL and GTI will go hard!
Can you expand on this take? I know very little about the structure and opportunities of the new Texas market, let alone GTI's zone.
In Phase II of the Compassionate Use Program, the Texas Department of Public Safety awarded Region 9 to GTI and Region 5 to Cresco Labs.
Anyone here has a view on how the near licensing agreement between GTI and RYTHM affects each other's financials. Do we think this now is better RYTHM's bottom line and hence the price action?
So this is essentially Peter paying Paul? I haven’t fully looked into this, I only looked into why GTI would go with agrify when it was first announced, I assumed it was sale through channel for tax purpose but correct me if I’m wrong but if GTI has majority stake in RYTHM wouldn’t they just be taking money from petter to Paul while it shows false growth in GTI since it’s just pretty much the same company?
Makes me less worried that GTI is just going to go on a bad revenue buying spree in order to prop up RYM. I still think RYM is primarily a vehicle for partnering with someone like Boston Beer. Switching to a flat rate makes it much clearer what you are investing in if you were BB. Now instead of someone coming in with an investment and not knowing exactly how much GTI is contributing, this clears that up.
I remember how elated I was when Zorn got the HHS report released, and going through it felt like validation it was happening 🥲 And then I was surprised that one of the few things the GOP publicly disputed with Trump the was rescheduling. What a thing to side against 😂 I think it will happen; but who knows that the timeline will be for the real benefit to materialize (removal of 280E). I love GTI, but man…fundamentals and other realities (competitors restructuring) just won’t show up in stock prices without reform.
Going off Visual and particularly GTI being fairly valued? up-listing will follow S3 which shouldn't be over looked. Also will be the start of a wave of M&A where companies were hesitant touching a Schedule 1 substance imo and just greater general acceptance as time goes. But you do you. Everyone's entitled to their opinion, it's usually the ones that sold for a loss that turn sour to feel better about their choices and just have a negative outlook.
Got my stage 1 GTI up to 130mph
The have a very nice VA footprint; me thinks GTI will want to add some to their current footprint before the rec market opens GTI really pulled back on new location openings, and piling up cash 💰 Hope these fire sales are what they’ve been wishing for and we get to see some capital pushes
Trulieve ant GTI are the top dogs. Which is why I feel sick looking at Curaleaf up 6% today currently
My conviction is intact. Buying more GTI, HITI and MSOs on Monday.
I have a feeling that we're never going to see another 2015-2016/early-2021 type run on these even with uplisting. I've been slowly consolidating my Cresco/Trulieve positions into GTI over the last couple years of pumps because I think they'll be the first CPG play, but idk how we're going to see those 10-15x off the lows like we did with APHA in 2021. It would take a full blue sweep with someone even moderately pro-industry for the stars to align. The 2021 thing was different because we had the presidential election followed by an uncertain runoff win in GA. It was perfect timing. This year's midterms could make a pop, but my prediction is that it will be similar to when the orange pedo said he was going to do something and then the entire admin was disrupted by another weekly scandal. 2x-5x-10x etc will depend solely on a candidate committed to opening up the US industry through pressuring the DEA and Congress for SAFE/Schedule II-V (or de-scheduling). Either way around it, I'll just hold this POS sector until the bombs drop or we somehow get past this fuckass timeline lol
A good but modestly mixed Q4 from GTI. On the positive side, revenue and aEBITDA were well ahead of expectations with Minnesota adult-use sales leading the way in Q4 as GTI remains one of the few companies continuing to show top-line growth. Negatively, margins came in further and expenses were elevated, consistent with most of 2025 as price compression continued in key states. GTI continues to generate significant cash flow and boasts an extremely strong balance sheet (with further debt taken out recently in Q1), suggesting they may become more acquisitive in 2026. Full review: **Revenue:** QoQ: $291.4M to $311.1M / YoY: $294.3M to $311.1M FY 2025: $1.14B to $1.18B *Big jump sequentially (up 6.7%) and YoY (up 5.7%) to close out the year, well ahead of expectations ($296M) led by the onset of AU sales in Minnesota where GTI has 8 stores. FY revenue was up 3.4%, led by 12 store openings and strong performance in MN/OH/FL/NY, offsetting price compression in other states.* **Adjusted EBIDTA:** QoQ: $80.2 to $100.2M / YoY: $97.8M to $100.2M FY 2025: $371.3M to $348.4M *Big jump in Q4 to close out the year, good to see after YoY declines in the first 3 quarters of the year. FY 2025 aEBITDA was down 6.2%, with management highlighting double-digit price compression in multiple markets. Note that management is adjusting out the licensing fees paid to partner-asset Rythm in this figure now.* **Gross Margins:** QoQ 49.4% to 45.4% / YoY: 53.7% to 45.4% FY: 52.9% to 48.9% *Steep drop sequentially, YoY, and for the FY 2025, with management again pointing towards price compression as the culprit. Note that the Q4 figure includes the licensing fee to Rythm for the first time, so a comparable figure would be 47.6% with the $6.8M licensing fee added back.* **Operating Expenses:** QoQ: $107.3M to $122.3M / YoY: $101.0M to $122.3M FY: $376.7M to $437.2M *Big jump to close out the year, in part due to new licensing fees but also with added costs for new store openings and increased SBC.* **Operational Cash Flow:** QoQ: $74.1M to $90.1M FY: $294.9M to $195.2M *Big OCF generational to close out the year as GTI stopped paying 280e taxes like peers as they expect rescheduling in 2026. 280e adjusted OCF was $177M in 2025 compared to $199.6M in 2024. CapEx was $14.7M in Q4 and $81M for 2025, in-line with 2024 and forecasting a similar spend for 2026.* **Cash:** QoQ: $226.2M to $274.3M / YoY: $171.7M to $274.3M *Big jump to close out the year driven by the OCF generation, offset somewhat by CapEx and share repurchases ($14.1M in Q4 and $38.9M in 2025). Note that GTI took out an additional $50M in debt in Q1 and also won a $17M legal judgment from Ascend so this will balloon further in Q1- certainly bringing up the question of where they want to spend beyond the $80M capex forecast.*
It’s took reschedule forever, Jamie diamon(I know I spelled it wrong) did mention 5 months ago that if S3 was to happen then the exchanges would be more willing to uplist companies. I take everything with a grain a salt but AV from TDR did mention he thinks uplisting would happen before finalizing S3 , he said this earlier this week. I think the most important thing to realize is that IF this bill passes it doesn’t mean everyone will automatically be uplisted. I think there are only 5 companies in compliance that would move exchanges over nnight. GTI , curaleaf, Cresco and verano, trulieve. Also this would mean a short lived pump and doesn’t mean share prices sky rocket , look at LPs. Moving exchanges does give it access to more brokerages which could help SP but one thing it ensures is easier dilution, which everyone of these companies will do the second they uplist. I could be wrong about this but I think MSOS gets hurt by this move. They are a synthetic ETF that uses cash swaps to hold “shares” of other companies since the funds can’t hold them. Also still against a fund manager that has “YOLO” as an etf. That’s kinda wild lol.
Looks like a death cross approaching for GTI. I know technicals here on OTC traded stocks meaning nothing, but it's still not a good sign. Glta
Yes. In my opinion once your losses hit 10-15 percent. No matter the sector. Cut them. Why hold longer based off rumors and hype? You see and feel a 10-15 percent loss. Everybody is different. You have to be disciplined enough to get out but then you have to face reality that your thesis was wrong. I’ve been wrong in other sectors. But instead of being emotionally about it, I take the loss & ask where I fucked up, then try my best not to do it again. Or maybe you were just way too early but again cut your losses. When it comes to holding long term it’s really based off business model, and financials. The reality of this sector is, vertical integration hurts a lot and 280e hurts even more. 280e goes away cool, but margins will come down. That’s a fact. Not opinion, that’s literally what will happen. Then you run into the same old question. Where will growth come from? Not new states coming online. This happens- new states come online—> uptick in rev—> market stablizes—price compression happens—> rev ticks down. Topline is down for every company. Insert GTI, GTI is in limited license states majority. They control who the compete against and the price floor. They will have to compete eventually and will see declining topline, which they will try to off set with hemp bev. Trulieve is over leveraged in Fl, economies of scale allow for better price protection against top line. Thats why they spent 250mill for rec in Fl. So where’s the moat? All other companies in diff sectors have moats w products, or services, even energy and infrastructure, even liquor or tobacco, have some type of moat. Whether it’s processes, or partnership. Cannabis doesn’t have any. So it becomes strictly about branding similar to coffee from a branding standpoint. Best brands will eventually get acquired by liquor, & maybe Tobacco even tho tobacco is shifting big towards smokeless. MSOS becomes worthless. & smart money increases stakes in the liquor or alc companies that have exposure to cannabis and hemp.
GTI Ben came out and said it’s happening, they’re even accumulating unpaid taxes. It’s in his best interest to say that but that guy still didn’t do it the last few years when everyone else did. The EO shows you what Trump wants; just lots of bureaucracy and the DOJ has a lot of messes 🥲
Only one who cares is trulieve, that’s why they burned a quarter billion in cash instead of paying UTP. If it was such a high probable thing other companies would have thrown more cash with trulieve, especially GTI. They didn’t. It was a long shot anyway. Trulieve could have quite literally bought 100 plates at that trump dinner, bribed him for whatever that way and still had 150 to go towards the utp lol.
Yeah I’m close to capitulation and have considered selling all my shares in the sector- but will hold off on sales for now to see what prices are like after S3 , likely will hold some Tru , Cresco, GTI but will sell most of my LPs and ETFs. Likewise- Never again will I invest on anything requiring federal action- going forward I’m only buying divi stocks, index funds, mega cap and stable dividend payers.
Yeah, GTI always the outlier in that regard (and most regards 😂)
That's the reason I have my money in debt free companies, like GTI and HITI.
I think there’s some clear cut long term winners for the US market - 1. Liquidity ratios, unpaid debt (including 280E) and negative net income = restructuring; so survivors can pick up their assets cheap 2. Limited market entrants, it’s extremely hard to get capital to start or enter this sector + current companies die off = less competition for (1) 3. The US market is massive, it can be easy to forget that even for Fortune 500 companies the operate globally the US often makes up 60 to 70% of their revenue. The easy choice it GTI - a. No massive 280E owed, so they have the most benefit from 280E removed as others not paying b. Only consistently profitable operator c. Actually have more cash than debt, a lot of MSOs have liquidity ratios under 0.5 (even when excluding 280E)
1. Trajectory of the sector There are lots of moving parts here with lots of unknowns such as how the hemp ban pans out, does S3 actually happen, and how do regulations look at both the federal/state level in response to a potential rescheduling. I think S3 does eventually happen and my thesis is that even though this will kick start more price compression there will be a window of 12-18 months where cashflow will look far better than today. I see consolidation via M&A and balance sheets getting cleaned up (as best as possible) during this window. I think over the next 12 months after rescheduling the strong will get strong - and I categorize strong as bigger players with access to capital that have scale. I don't this S3 saves small players or weak operators 2. Cresco company health First off I haven't read through the filings yet and I plan to do it over the weekend so this is just an initial reaction to what was shared. I've always respected Charlie, liked their brands and overall had a positive view on Cresco. However I think their balance sheet is getting too levered for the size of their operation. I also think there in a cycle of revenue churn, cost cut, more revenue churn, leading to eventual more cost cuts. They've done a good job taking out costs but its affecting top line which is understandable. Hopefully their international strategy helps bring in some growth which is desperately needed. The big positive is based on their existing footprint there are lots of assets then can acquire which would be helpful - compared to a Curaleaf or GTI that already has operations in most markets. 3. Trump doing favorable stuff for the industry My answer is I hope so. If S3 gets across the finish line I would be more than happy. When he was elected my thoughts were he would do nothing for cannabis. So him even signing an EO for S3 was a huge surprise for me. I just hope it materializes, which I think it will eventually.
Would make sense considering other MSOs had secretive joint ownership in Illinois dispensaries together. GTI and Verano owned ILDISP LLC together. There was a lawsuit a while back alleging GTI, Verano, and others in Chicago were coordinating to push their brands together. A key tech company involved was Akerna, providing sales and consumer data. Akerna was controlled by the Pritker family (governor of Illinois). Akerna was running the US Cannabis Roundtable at the time, where the Chicago companies were members. I have long said those big MSO advocacy organizations are a fraud that are just used to coordinate insider deals and the pending oligopoly of cannabis.
They’ve shifted to international, but it won’t reflect in their earnings yet. I think they will be one of the first to get acquired, once 280e is removed they, along with everyone else besides a GTI, will dilute and then use funds to pay down debt and then I could see them getting acquired. They compete in hard markets and hold their own, like Michigan. But welll see.
RYM and GTI will be the best combo to invest in this space. There is immense value to be unlocked in the intertwined structure/setup of these companies.
I tens to agree very much woth your take on this. Appreciate you taking the time to outline it for us. Sad that the GTI/RYM.cant be bothered to do so. Quite frustrating, actually.
Let me bring in Tilray as an example as I think it will help this entire discussion out. People have been saying they are just buying alcohol and its a wasted strategy. You've been vocal that Tilray is screaming to investors about infrastructure and future capabilities about a THC beverage strategy that will bring scale and reach that nobody else will be able to replicate right away. Everybody has their opinion of the true motivation of their alcohol strategy but time will tell as more moves are made I'm saying the same thing here with GTI/RYM. Ben is screaming at investors and keeps referencing John Malone consistently when discussing the relationship between the two companies. Let's look at what John Malone did. He: 1. Used complex capital structures and leverage to create additional value 2. Found ways to lower taxes and be efficient with cash by using alternative ways to structure companies 3. Consolidated distressed and undervalued assets in a Media space that was highly fragmented and struggling at the time. Does that not sound extremely familiar to what is happening now and what the cannabis space looks like? Now to answer your questions >Why spend millions on buying and setting up RYM? GTI injected $75M into RYM and it has a fully diluted market cap of around $250-$300M depending on where the stock trades (at one point over $400M as you well know). They created extra real value by doing this strategy and its still early innings for it (as per what Malone did) >You can have one internal subsidiary the "brand" company and one internal subsidiary the "operating" company, but there seems to be little point in physically separating the companies in this complex way to me. Did Curaleaf see significant appreciate when they created "The Hemp Company"? That is a somewhat similar example as they created an internal subsidiary focused entirely on hemp when hemp was at its absolute peak. They also launched beverages at the same time. Very similar with the exception of a spin-off into another publicly traded entity - the market didn't care. >And if it's so beneficial on its own, why is GTI the only one to do it? Which other company has a balance sheet, cash flow generation and war chest to be able to absorb a highly complex and risky venture like what GTI did? The way I see it, this is a way for GTI to consolidate the industry and unlock more shareholder value under 2 entities than one. I don't think this is one big beverage play. As I previously mentioned, if this was 100% about beverages there would be no reason to license Dogwalkers, Doctor Solomon's, &shine and Good green. These have nothing to do with beverages and are pure cannabis brands. From my reading of the situation I think they will expand more into beverages and cannabis as a whole. All brands in all form factors in RYM, all operations/distribution/etc. in GTI. It will be complex but it should ultimately unlock way more value for GTI & RYM shareholders. If they announce a big partnership with a beverage company and you are right you have my blessings to gloat and make fun of me daily for as long as you want and I'll take it like an adult.
If the goal is not to partner with someone who is only able to invest in federally legal beverages, then why not just keep it all as one company? Why spend millions on buying and setting up RYM? You can have one internal subsidiary the "brand" company and one internal subsidiary the "operating" company, but there seems to be little point in physically separating the companies in this complex way to me. Unless you wanted to partner with an alcohol company who can't touch cannabis and needs you to be on the NASDAQ. I just don't see the actual benefit, unless they get a partnership. And if it's so beneficial on its own, why is GTI the only one to do it?
You can structure a deal pre-reform and have it beneficial for both parties, without having to give a "nice" premium. I don't believe Wyld vastly overpaid for Gron with an enormous healthy premium. There is just as much incentive for smaller operators to want to be acquired by bigger players as regulation change would be harder on people with less capital The other day we both agreed that private equity could enter the space in a meaningful way and piece together strong assets. I don't see why MSOs can't do the same. The only difference would be they would divest what is overlap. But the expansion strategy can be done. But like with all M&A there are risks and not every deal will be a good one. Some will do it well and others won't. >I just see no point to RYM existing as a company if they sell the same stuff GTI does? The only way that works in my mind would hurt GTI a lot. If one company is a branding company and the other is an operating one then they don't sell the same stuff. This is separation of revenue streams to extract more value than if it is all under one umbrella and a hedge against future reform. I also don't see how it hurts GTI as they own RYM. GTI shareholders also indirectly own RYM equity
Profitable operators have no reason to sell on the cusp of reform unless you are giving them a nice premium. So to me you either need to pay a big premium for good revenue, or buy a bunch of bad revenue on the cheap. The latter is going to be much easier to find. You can still cut costs and optimize, but I'm worried they're going to go for a big expansion of revenue at the cost of GTI's financials. That'll give RYM lots more money to expand with. But hurting GTI to do that could be one reason Ben doesn't want to talk with shareholders right now. I just see no point to RYM existing as a company if they sell the same stuff GTI does? The only way that works in my mind would hurt GTI a lot. But yes, I think the whole point is setting up RYM to participate in a tier system. But not a future new one "like" alcohol. RYM is set up for the three tier alcohol system that is already there specifically for beverages. Leave RYM in the beverage distribution channel, while GTI stays in the flower/vape distribution channel. That sounds like optimization to me, rather than one company running two completely separate distribution/retail channels. But who knows. I'll have to go hop into the comment section of Twitter to try to figure out Ben's plan lol
>So of course the licensing revenue is higher right away? You are just dropping that licensing deal into a full fledged cannabis business, right? How does that revenue grow significantly? GTI will have to expand their cannabis business, but right now growth isn't that good. So they'll have to buy growth, which has historically hurt profits a lot. Through M&A is how I think they achieve it. You buy smaller operators that are profitable, growing with decent brands (mostly smaller privates). You move the grows and dispensaries under GTI and brands under RYM. Rinse and repeat as often as you can with whatever makes sense. Now they could just buy up a bunch of beverage brands only which would make me change my thesis. But looking at how the structure is I still believe there are decent brands out their that can be plugged into GTI/RYM that is good for both companies >You think Ben just forgot about Boston Beer? I notice you are coming around to my long standing point that RYM is supposed to be independent of GTI and the plan was never to merge them. The plan was to have a completely separate, federally legal business, without massive debt, that only sells THC drinks. I still am not seeing a 100% THC drinks only focus here like you've mentioned. If that was the case I don't see they would sell and license their pure cannabis brands like Dogwalkers into it. As I mentioned above, M&A is going to happen and if they just buy up beverage brands/assets then I'll pivot and agree with you. My rationale for thinking they would be separate is to deal with the future upcoming regulations when interstate commerce is allowed and we morph into a tiered system like alcohol. I think RYM will be more like Coke/Pepsi. Coke sells a syrup formula into third party bottlers and spends money on sales and marketing to keep demand up. When we have a fully regulated system RYM will just license their brands into third party production facilities and have a capex light model. I think this will be across all their Cannabis portfolio - flower, edibles, beverages, pre-rolls, vapes, etc. That's why I believe over the last 6 months they've vastly increased SG&A to bring brand awareness.
GTI's cannabis business has been built and developed for many years and was already generating tons of revenue. So of course the licensing revenue is higher right away? You are just dropping that licensing deal into a full fledged cannabis business, right? How does that revenue grow significantly? GTI will have to expand their cannabis business, but right now growth isn't that good. So they'll have to buy growth, which has historically hurt profits a lot. They've barely started selling beverages though. This is a bet on regulations and Senorita and Rythym gaining thousands of retail and event points of sales without having to own dispensaries. And they have the ability to partner with a real beverage maker like one of the many alcohol companies interested in selling beverages and not smokeable products. You think Ben just forgot about Boston Beer? I notice you are coming around to my long standing point that RYM is supposed to be independent of GTI and the plan was never to merge them. The plan was to have a completely separate, federally legal business, without massive debt, that only sells THC drinks.
I think the Strategy is to always show a loss on $RYM to avoid tax. The excuse always to grow the brand, but really to grow GTI and the beverage segment as well
That's for 12 months but includes write-down of the legacy extraction business, sales/marketing and related party transaction to GTI All though the last 3 months is still high at $21M. Preliminary read through shows its mostly sales and marketing (GTI has said in the past they want to ramp up to get brand awareness up), amortization of the licenses and the share services agreement/related party transactions with GTI
100% - the only license agreement RYM has is with GTI
Ahh I see. Now I wonder how much of the $7.8 MM is via GTI.
The beverages (Rythm/Senorita) are owned outright by RYM. There is no licensing revenue there. GTI licenses all their core cannabis brands through them - Rythm, &shine, Dogwalkers, Beboe, Doctor Solomons, incredibles and Good green. So the license revenue isn't tied to beverages
My view - RYM gave optionality to create value for GTI under 3 pillars Hemp/cost of capital/M&A 1. Hemp - When this structure was done Hemp was showing crazy growth in all form factors. RYM allowed GTI to sell hemp (like edibles via Incredibles and beverages via Senorita) outside of the retail dispensary. If the hemp ban did not come out of nowhere I think this would have been a way for GTI to play in the hemp space away from parent co GTI 2. Cost of Capital - the licensing structure reduces the overall cost of capital for GTI. GTI pays a licensing fee to RYM to use the brands they sold. This is incorporated in their COGS and because it's not plant touching it isn't subject to 280E - so they can get around some 280E taxes with this structure even with cannabis as S1. Obviously if rescheduling occurs and 280E taxes are taken away then this licensing structure loses some of its benefits that GTI receives now over others 3. M&A - GTI has already signaled they plan to ramp up M&A. This allows them to acquire a company, move grow operations under GTI and their brands into RYM. Over time you could potentially have RYM generating serious amounts of licensing revenue with very little comparative expenses. This cash generation can fuel future growth either via sales/marketing or more consolidation Obviously this is a moving target, when the landscape changes the above will change as well. However there are some clear sight lines here. Licensing starting in November so the $7.8M is only 2 months worth - that annualizes to $47M as long as GTI's wholesale business stays consistent (plus whatever they do with the beverages/hemp side). I originally thought that when uplisting occurs they would merge GTI/RYM under one company but now I'm on the fence as they can keep them separate indefinitely. RYM can be a cash generating machine that owns brands and does sales and marketing for parent company GTI that grows products. GTI still would own majority of RYM so benefits would find their way to parent co.
Looks like a great earnings at first glance but can someone help me understand the hype with RYM in general. I’ll preface with saying I’m a big GTI fan and thought this was a great acquisition in the moment but it seems like everyone is ignoring the incoming hemp ban. Who cares if seniorita is in 6000 retail locations today if that will drop to almost none after the hemp ban and online shipping will be nonexistent. I get the licensing side and benefit of the uplisted ticker but that’s where the story ends for me. What else am I missing here?
Tilray did in fact make cannabis moves recently. Their beverage purchases. Notice how GTI bought Senorita? And they contract manufacture their beverages in various states. Tilray bought beer and then created THC brands. So they did make a beverage move, exactly like I'm saying they are doing. Buy beverage assets and convert to THC beverages. Instead of buying THC beverages. Their method is the better one if you expect beverages to be regulated and put through the three-tier system like alcohol. But more expensive upfront. Irwin definitely is deceiving people when he talks about revitalizing certain brands though. Imo some are purely placeholders for hemp THC beverage expansion, but you can't just say "yea we aren't trying to make money off this brand". Regarding whether it's going to be regulated or not. I follow the money and the lobbying. Circle K is going ahead with nationwide expansion. Multiple brands have launched and/or received new funding rounds recently. The WSWA and other lobbying organizations are on board. Companies like Oak View (who Trump recently pardoned their co-founder) are trying to put hemp beverages in arenas. Texas itself is currently regulating beverages instead of banning them. There is not a more influential state on Republican politics than Texas. States have already put through regulations or want to regulate will keep the market going just fine. Unless the federal government is going to enforce hemp beverage legality (and not rec cannabis?) then those states are fine. I'm not saying it's a sure thing. But I personally feel confident that low dose hemp beverages are here to stay. Whether or not Tilray can capitalize on that is another story.
GTI and HITI seem very profitable for me
As for Best Company in the Sector I am referring to both GTI and RYM, its the same company. Just structuring for benefits . There is no question GTI is the best company in the Sector and has been
How is RYM a best company in the sector? Literally the only thing it has going for it is it's affiliate with GTI, and even that deal doesn't seem to be panning out for either side of the equation.
It’s not a pump, and if you read my post I clearly said I’m not saying that will happen. I’m only here for GTI and RYM the best companies in the Sector. So yes that is what I talk about. I will confidently say again and again RYM is underpriced, not due to financials, due to negative sentiment regarding the hemp ban. Its an overreaction and anyone that is paying attention can probably tell Drinks are not going away. The price correction will come that is for sure in my opinion. I was saying a good ER could do it, but maybe not, maybe sentiment will not change until we get hemp news. But for specifically, I know this is why you always comment negatively on my post. RYM is going to blow out TLRY sorry bud, your shares just going to keep getting diluted and the bussiness never takes off while you line Irvines pockets
$RYM ER Tomorrow I’m excited and expecting another big win for the GTI Team. Not saying this will happen, but I think there is a real possibility a good ER could lead to repricing. I would say $30 is extremely realistic just on fair value with neutral sentiment. But maybe $RYM needs hemp news before the market allows it reprice, we will see .
If they dont, GTI can sue due to unfair competition. And they will win
Have you thought that if Trulieve does not pay, then they would have to compensate those who paid? Like GTI?
Honestly dude I don’t have them on hand. But as you know I obsessed with GTI and RYM. I promise you they have definitely been claiming they are paying 280e tax all year, I read everything about the company and for sure know they been saying that
Ha, right? Mike should take some notes from Ben! Fwiw, I've bought Cronos over the past year. Surprisingly, I don't believe I've bought any GTI (though Rym, yes, as swing trades). Kovler's immaturity and the overall lack of corporate transparency are primary factors. Reading and listening to Cronos gets me excited. Not because they are flashy or in anticipation of explosive growth, but rather because they are a grown ass company with a conservative strategy that is based on market realities.
Interesting thought. GTI stopped paying their taxes in late 2024, though, which would precede the Agrify acquisition.
Private companies have the same makeup as public ones. It happens in every sector. You need leverage to grow, doesn't matter what industry you are in. If you want to believe there are these bootstrapped private companies that scaled up large without debt or private funding then go ahead. I agree with PE entering hence why I said it in my original comment >But saying it's laughable that people could be concerned about GTI comes off as overconfidence. In a market where overconfidence has been punished again and again. It is laughable at the current state of affairs. People are thinking the best in breed will be taken out my price compression and competition. The bottom 95% will shut down long before GTI does. As more and more competition goes away market share gets redistributed to the remaining. The more difficult the environment becomes the better for GTI. If GTI's financials take a hit, everyone else will feel it 2-3x more. If something changes, I'll stop laughing. But until then I stand by my comments
This will play out exactly as it did in Canada. Nobody was making money as there was too much supply and too much competition. Over the last 3 Qs LPs have shown strong improvements in their Canadian operations. This is because new entrants stopped coming and all the bottom players folded up. The sales that were generated by the bankrupt companies gets redistributed to whoever is still standing. Conditions will get worse I fully agree with that. But that doesn't mean GTI will be heading for trouble. Both private and public companies will fold up long before GTI and when that happens market share will get redistributed. You can't look at GTI in a vacuum thinking price compression will take them down. Consider how their financials will look when 30% of their competition closes their doors. Add to the fact all the capital they have and how much they can consolidate the remaining 70%
You have no idea what the financials of private companies are. Especially regarding debt. And you know as well as anyone that having a bunch of revenue doesn't mean a high valuation. A company with 1 billion in revenue could go bankrupt easily. It's about cash, profit, and liabilities. Private equity could go through and combine a bunch of small private operators and take over fully developed markets. It's a possibility. I'm not saying it's going to happen. But saying it's laughable that people could be concerned about GTI comes off as overconfidence. In a market where overconfidence has been punished again and again.
Multi billion dollar valuation is a bit misleading as nobody has more than $2B. Plus those that have it are doing around $1B in revenue. Prices in Illinois have gone from $17.5/gram down to $6. Even Florida with their strong barrier to entry has seen strong price compression as well. There is price compression everywhere and GTI is navigating better than anyone else. Thinking Private companies are spitting images of the public ones. You will have a small number of large ones that have things dialed in, a bunch saddled with debt and then a ton of smaller operators who don't have the capital to scale in a meaningful way. Thinking there is a swarm of private companies going to eat everyone's lunch is not realistic. What is realistic is the companies that have access to large amounts of capital will likely win. I do see private equity entering more meaningfully (ex: the firm that bought the VA license from Cannabist).
Relative to the other public US companies, yes that's laughable. But there are plenty of scenarios where none of the big public US companies are ever in a place to financially support their multi billion dollar valuations. GTI is less risky for sure, but we just shouldn't lose sight of how many other private cannabis operators are out there. None of these public companies are safe investments. I haven't looked into it in a bit, but pricing in Illinois is still very high compared to other developed markets, right? Price compression is going to happen. It's just something that GTI investors (including myself) should be thinking about.
I've heard some wacky takes in here but the people coming out trying to make it seem like GTI is heading for trouble is truly laughable.
GTI is mainly in limited licensed states, I’ve mentioned this time and time again. This means they create a price floor, control who they compete against their own stores and control the “selectivity” consumers have. They haven’t had to compete yet. GTI breaks down rev, retail v whole sell, and retail for them means their own stores. (Everyone breaks it down diff). Roughly 70 percent of their rev comes some their stores. I’d assume since GTI margins came down that they are tryna balance that out now. Maybe get it to 50/50 but I haven’t took a deep dive into most recent release.
Well boyz. We did not make it on the federal register for today. Surprising I know. However, I see no reason GTI and TRUL cannot rally 10-30% today in preparation for our destiny which relinquishes us from our eternal bag holding. Hopefully all of you who could used this recent correction to DCA if that was an applicable scenario for your portfolio. 💼
I haven't thought this completely through, but could this be just as much related to RYM? Part of the idea of RYM was that their net losses would help offset GTI's tax bill, right? So while they were reducing their bill through RYM losses it made sense to pay the taxes. There'd be no point to saving money on your taxes if you weren't planning on paying them anyway. [From MJBiz](https://mjbizdaily.com/news/cannabis-industrys-growing-pains-produced-seasoned-operators-new-funding-opportunities/405213/): * Net operating loss mergers: **Pairing profitable cannabis operators with defunct entities that hold large net operating losses or tax credits allows investors to reduce future taxable income.** While complex, such transactions can meaningfully enhance after-tax earnings when structured correctly, particularly in anticipation of 280E reform. So if he were anticipating RYM taking steps forward, they wouldn't be able to pair GTI profitability with RYM's net losses to reduce their taxable income anymore. So might as well not pay the taxes. Sorry, like I said haven't had time to think about it a lot this morning, but just throwing that out there.
According to Kovler, GTI stopped paying taxes this Q in anticipation of rescheduling this year. Kinda skews the QoQ and YoY a bit...?
GTI did good as expected but they scheduled RYM ER to March 3rd, thats what I really wanted to see
That's the real story. As the S3 decision keeps dragging on and on, the hemp beverage market just keeps growing. GTI having a big stake in that market with RYM keeps me from selling any shares.
Their top line revenue has grown every quarter the last two years. Most MSOs have had top line revenue shrinking materially (Cresco -8% last quarter YoY, Verano has fallen every quarter for over a year). If the entire industry is facing a challenge and they’re seeing top line revenue shrink vs. GTI able to expand it, that’s them off setting it 💪🏻
And last q without the adjustments which can vary quarter to quarter it was at 38 million. It’s dropping like a rock honestly. They plussed up their SGA a bunch to pay for the revenue increase (new stores, salary increases) This piece was also snuggled in near the end of the bad news: “The Company expects first quarter 2026 revenues to be sequentially down mid-single digits due to continued pricing pressure and seasonality.” Next quarter is going to continue this trend. GTI is not ramped and ready to deploy their cash on fire sales - this recent raise of $50 million is for protection. Their days of being profitable may be ending. Of course they’re still far better protected than all other MSO’s
Can’t wait to see what that cash gets used for 🥳🙏🏻 Hello fire asset sales. Must MSOs have had falling revenues for consecutive quarters, kudos to GTI for finding ways to offset price compression every single quarter.
Seeing increased competition and price compression routinely throughout this release. Gross profit down a lot, SG&A up a lot… income from operations down to 16 mil in the 4th quarter. These are dropping very fast. You can’t just come out and say another awesome quarter from GTI. It’s all relative.. yes these are still better than most companies out there but this trend is not looking good at all.
Looks like the licensing revenue being moved over to RYM was $6.8M for Nov/Dec. Transparently that was lighter than what I was expecting. Still run rate of $40M licensing revenue on a 12 month basis but hopefully that will scale as Minnesota ramps along with VA/PA hopefully that will have lots of branded GTI products in the early stages
Did something new and decided to consolidate all my cannabis holdings. Instead of having a whole bunch of small positions. I now only have a very large position in Auxly, and a small position in VFF and LOVE. I previously had some HITI, some CRON, some GTI, some OILS, some ROMJ. But I think the best strategy is to pick the one you are the most confident in. We shall see how it goes when the annual fins for Auxly come out next month.
Curious as to what some of your material assumptions are for the modeling to show that downside risk? They’re the only big MSO that’s profitable consistently, no 280E owed, should be at $300M in ish in cash with that loan with no debt due until 2029. And while growth is slow they are increasing revenue every quarter while some fall They’re also the MSO benefiting the most from 280E removal given they’re actually paying in full I get being down on the sector (been in it for years, not fun haha), but really only see downside for GTI if S3 doesn’t go through (in which case they still survive but no investor appetite)
After that $50M loan GTI must be just under $300M on cash, with no 280E owed and debt not due until 2029 (also very manageable for them) Safe assumption is they’re patiently waiting for fire sales on assets 🥲…but it’s hard to be patient haha; very keen to see them deploy for growth as you said soon S3 clarity on 280E removal also does really matter for them; that’s going to add even more cash in the future for them but really want to see some investment soon 😭
I remember a while ago doing a full calculation with all warrants in and out of money coming in at $400M at around this price but to be honest its not important. This company is not "undervalued" as you keep claiming. A company that is doing $4M quarterly revenue with $10M loss is not undervalued at $100M let alone $250M. The market is pricing in the potential of what "could" happen which is heavily skewed towards the licensing potential. I'm hoping RYM goes from $4M Q revenue to around $15M - broken down around $5-$6M beverages and $9-$10M licensing. If that happens you can take the $9-$10M they posted in Nov/Dec and x6 to get an approximate annual revenue of $54-$60M in licensing revenue. Add on beverage revenue which will probably come in between $15-$30M annually now you have and $70-$90M annual 2026 revenue estimation for RYM With those numbers you can start to have informed viewpoints as to whether they are under/over valued. Buy calling them undervalued with the little beverage revenue they have today is not appropriate. If licensing comes in well under than $9M then this is way overvalued and GTI will have to ramp up M&A in order to add branding revenue to have the market cap make sense.
>It is priced as if the company is on verge of collapse, which is not the case. The current share price is still very expensive compared to the recent financials they have showed. Small revenues with steep losses and a market cap around $400M (if you include all warrants) is not something that is trading on the verge of collapse at all. >I believe this might report might finally show the a better picture of whats going on with RYM. This I definitely agree with and I believe that most are not seeing the true story. These earnings will have 2 months of licensing revenue and 3 months of beverage revenue. I'm optimistic that the 2 month's worth of licensing revenue will be greater than 3 months worth of beverage revenue and we should get a run rate of what the licensing revenue will generate for 2026. Also add to the fact that GTI has hired muscle to get M&A done very recently. Makes sense that they will start to acquire smaller companies and move operations to GTI and brands to RYM. Early assumptions from me would be $40-$60M in licensing revenue this year with little expenses giving them ample cash to spend on sales and marketing for GTI brands to help combat the price compression the industry is seeing. I've taken a decent sized position over the past few weeks as I'm banking on visibility of the licensing revenue from RYM and a re-rating from the market. Who knows if it comes to fruition but the strategy seems clear to me.
Green Thumb down 20%ish on the month, back near 3 mo average. I’m in for more shares in this mid-high $8 range. Very few growing, retail businesses out there with $1.7B ARR and zero debt. If GTI was operating in any other sector it would be $30 a share. Schedule III is coming, I’m increasingly confident the framework and timing will be announced in March before the planned April CBD pain trials. Feels like a cycle repeating itself. Pre-EO it was scromitting, now it’s ‘psychosis’, then silence, then complaints/capitulation by SAM. Downside from here feels like 20%, upside could be 100%. If you’re buying shares rather than options, it seems worth trying to catch another wave.
Do yourself a favour, go to GTI’s linked in page, click on people and do a search with the name Jackson
Who are some of the majors besides GTI?
[https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1756390/000162828026008154/aawh-20260211.htm](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1756390/000162828026008154/aawh-20260211.htm) As previously disclosed in the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) on February 6, 2026, an arbitrator issued an award (the “Award”) in favor of Green Thumb Industries Inc. and TWD18, LLC (collectively, “GTI”) relating to a June 2018 side letter agreement between the parties, resulting in a net award to GTI of approximately $19.7 million. Subsequent to the issuance of the Award, the Company entered into a settlement agreement dated February 11, 2026 with GTI (the “Settlement Agreement”) pursuant to which the parties agreed to resolve and fully satisfy the Award in exchange for a negotiated payment of $17.0 million. The Company has paid the settlement amount in accordance with the Settlement Agreement, and the Award has been fully satisfied, discharged, and extinguished.
Yeah i think GTI was the last of the majors
It will be interesting to see what today brings. I'll be watching GTI, Trulieve, and TerrAsend closely. Having major regrets selling Cweb two weeks ago, big mistake on my part.
They used to overpay for used cars. Back in May 2024 they offered $3k more than any other dealer for my 11y old GTI.
Trulieve and GTI are the way to go, a safe bet. Invested in both companies, they will do well...
This guy has it. RIVN rocks. Wait till the GTI-like R3X comes out.
My GTI would kick your ass on a track. You won't dust me in an SUV, lol
Good. I bought 1K more shares of GTI today
What Beetle? Maybe one day it will come back. Would be a great EV, especially if it buzzed when driving slow. The Golf/Rabbit is only sold as a GTI/R model in the NA market. ID Buzz should have been 15k cheaper and offer more for the price.
I threw 6x6s and bags of concrete in a VW GTI…these fuckers running trucks to drive 5 minutes because “they need the space for their golf bag” makes me laugh
You’re right it just states as expeditious as possible, somewhere I got Jan 30 in my head. Either way, not NOT buying these stocks IS the best investing strategy to date lol. Even trading is tough here. Long trades in down trend can lead to a lot of small losses that add up - that’s what happened to me. Just holding my GTI shares I bought 5 years ago and some call options for 2028
Cannabis is a commodity and trades like so- when are we going to realize this? That’s why all companies for the most part are flat to declining rev & before someone says GTI grows, it’s cause they participate in a majority of limited licensed states so they haven’t had to compete and they are able to control their competitors within their store. Same reason they are heavy heavy in whole sell. GTI would get swallowed whole in MI for example.
Looks like GTI’s breach was worth $19.3m less than AWH’s breach though haha
From the 8k from Feb 6th referenced in this release: “Item 8.01. Other Events. On February 5, 2026, Ascend Wellness Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) was notified that an award was issued in favor of its counterparty, Green Thumb Industries, Inc. (“GTI”), to a confidential arbitration matter. The dispute revolved around a side letter (the “Agreement”) entered into by the Company and GTI in June 2018 as part of the Company’s capital raise at the time, which provided for, among other provisions, purchase obligations by the Company from GTI. The arbitrator found that both the Company and GTI breached their obligations under the Agreement, awarding GTI approximately $22 million of damages and the Company approximately $2.3 million, resulting in a net award to GTI of approximately $19.7 million.” Not sure why GTI wasn’t pushing this good news