IBKR
Interactive Brokers Group Inc
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I once read somewhere that major brokers will deal with the issue of physical delivery on futures expirations, for a fee, but can't find it again. (self.investing)
Interactive Brokers closing account, won't let me deposit funds to avoid liquidation
I had my best trading day all year and in a very long time but have no one to talk to about it
Blackrock just added up to their $LUMN position
+8 million/2500% gain in 2 months, +20 million/5000% since April 2023
No reimbursement policy if hacked - IBKR Canada
Rates cut will send BETR to the moon (Better Home & Finance Holding Co)
If you want to day trade professionally, it's ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL that you trade with a professional platform that charges options fees.
Would you guys have handled it differently if you were in the same situation?
Would you guys have handled it differently if you were in the same situation? Sharing my investment experience with bad risk management strategy.
Worst brokerage platforms errors you have seen?
Worst brokerage platforms errors you have seen?
$COIN / Bitcoin ratio is stupid. Long BTC short $COIN
Just got approved for Options Trading on IBKR
USA: Options for automatically moving small amounts of excess funds from a bank into a money market mutual fund or similar? (is this "sweep"?)
Only 700 shares available for shorting on IBKR
A bullish case (w/DD) for Fisker FSR (SI: 41%)
Taking advantage of high lending rate and dividend yield
Lending out ABR and securing 15% annualized return
What’s the point of selling naked calls if you need to have the cost amount of shares regardless?
Interactive Brokers not filling orders, filling orders above limit price
HEAVY CAUTION!!! Closing a Short Put Option deep ITM...
Questions about bonds, mainly US treasuries
$LMND - Potential Gamma Squeeze
I want the same Column in Interactive Brokers to help my option game.
Price of Crude Oil vs Middle East death & injury tolls as reported by CNN
ITM put options expiring, but not enough cash in my account to purchase them
Last 35k left and looking for strategies to 10x in a short time
How is MooMoo? Recommendation for Canadian trading platforms.
CHEATSHEET: The Basics of Short Squeezes - A 3-min Read
Starting a fund partnerhip. How to go abiut it?
Must US brokers send an FYI about market orders to their clients who placed a market order in the past month by law?
is there a broker that allows automating weekly put writing?
Why does Fidelity have such terrible Treasury bond spreads and yields vs. market?
TD Ameritrade is beginning to charge users USD$50/month maintenance fees
Td Ameritrade to Schwab: how's order execution quality in Schwab?
Which free bond scanners(with ratings) are out there and which ones do you use?
Investing from Switzerland: IBKR vs Trading212 vs Degiro
Help finding spiked up/down stocks
Capital gains / Dividend tax on taxable MMF's for a foreign investor
Which online brokerages should I consider?
Can I get a count? DRS Price Hike: Would You Change Brokers?
How do American investors directly access foreign markets?
How are brokers like Lightspeed or Dash Prime for portfolio margin buying power?
Cost of options contracts:- AAPL / NVDA comparison
Mentions
No sean duros con el cuate! Si puedes invertir en Robinhood, Schwab, IBKR
I’m surprised, yet not surprised that IBKR would participate in this. Robinhood, sure. But IBKR was more solid. However, the fees for everything they offer have become insane over the years. I used to think of them as one of the most legit places you could use, but it seems they are headed downhill.
Did anyone here successfully participate in over subscribed high profile IPOs, what's your experience? As a retail investor do you even have a chance to get 5-10k USD (say with IBKR) if the IPO is hot or does one end up with just a few hundreds (since everything goes to HFs, and other institutional clients)? Thinking to participate at their IPO. I have account with solid European bank as a broker which covers all my needs except US IPOs, but I think even if their IBD participates, they won't route it to retail. Was thinking if it makes sense to open IBKR account but then again if IPO is over subscribed then will have to buy later on T or on T+1 and if it's not over subscribed then probably doesn't matter anyways buying on T+1 at 20-30% premium, which is not a big deal since I hold my positions for years anyways.
IBKR is one of the better alternatives for non-US people. You do not say which country you are located in. If you do tell us, perhaps some will have better suggestions.
0dte SPX 6200p, in @ 0.80 apiece and out @ 6.00. Thank goodness for IBKR's trailing stops on options, that V was pretty nasty.
Never heard of IBKR. Downloaded it, registered, it's time for CLBR. Thanks man!
Oh actually I was mostly wrong. It’s very confusing bc at IBKR they are marking today and the 4th together for some reason. So red relative to the 3rd, but they did actually gap up
Weird IBKR is marking the 4th and today as 1 day in futures
The P&L from IBKR just hits different. I don't know how to explain it.
I only use my TD EASY INVEST for TFSA account& just for TSX stocks, normal trades go with the IBKR
I only use my TD EASY INVEST for TFSA account& just for TSX stocks, normal trades go with the IBKR
You can hold USD with them and not have to convert back to CAD when buying and selling, but it's $10 a month to keep the USD account open. Fee also waived with a total balance above $100kCAD. If you transferred in USD as is, and then transfer it out and do currency conversion outside of WealthSimple then it is essentially commission-free if you aren't doing the $0.75CAD option contracts. I hate IBKR's UI but their conversion fees and commissions are pretty cheap and you don't have to worry about finding workarounds.
Positive expected value just means over the long run, it should generate profit. But that assumes you have 1 sample and you can adjust it across various instruments. So if you trade lot\`s of different positions, with only criteria being positive EV - law of large numbers doesn\`t apply there (shame on you TastyTrade!). This is my opinion - I am neither educated, nor skilled! So take my opinion with gram of salt. To to have statistical edge - or "to make option selling sensible", you need defined criteria and distribution sample. Then you need to find positive EV inside those critera that are repeated historically under certain conditions and with certain instrument. Then you need to backtest it and try with another instrument. So the option pricing has to be repeatable (payoff). Also, probably, certain instruments behave diferently in same conditions. Find those conditions that produce more profit than market is pricing in. Then - what theory says (as far as I know) - you should have long-term profitable strategy. And it does not mean to sell options! It could very well be long options/spreads. You got plenty of backtests for options strategies (IBKR), and if you research a bit - you will find that some long spreads had hundreds percent return and you will also find that selling options mostly doesn\`t beat holding the stock. TLDR: There is no simple way to profit, but there are numerus fun ways to lose!
Use IBKR then. No PFOF and problem solved. What’s the issue?
Ignore everyone else, yes IBKR is the cheapest broker for options in canada.
There’s no articles out yet. It is interesting because someone a month ago posted the same IBKR notice but I didn’t get a notice. This time I have. Might be an error but unlikely. Watch the chart early Monday. I actually think that it would be positive. They were risking delisting and this will keep them compliant, they have had a run of fantastic news lately and consistently been moving up or staying steady the last month. With a compliance confirmation this stock is at the bottom it’s likely to go up because there’s been so much hype around it lately.
Apparently 200k/year wasn't enough for them to give access to Options with IBKR. I had to get approved through Moomoo. Funny enough, IBKR does Moomoo's backend. Make that make sense.
I got an email from IBKR yesterday to inform me as I am a holder.
Thought you were just talking about trades. IBKR is the best bet for options.
The thing about payment for order flow is that if you are trying to get any kind of spread filled then you need (in my opinion) market makers and they will provide services based on incentive. That said, certain brokerages have better set ups (Schwab is much better at filling these than RH. Both are better than IBKR at these kinds of fills).
I chose EUR transfers because I'm transferring from a EUR account. I buy US stocks though. IBKR will convert it for you. I wasn't even really able to find an easy way to transfer USD. If you live in the EU, EUR is easiest. My transactions are in my account after 10 minutes! And you can set up your account to display your account balance and etc. in USD regardless. The only thing you're not allowed to do is manually make the currency conversation in IBKR, but they will do it for you whenever you buy stocks that are in USD and when you sell them, it will be in USD.
My broker doesnt offer them for this ticker. I am switching to a different one, connected to IBKR. I am not based in the US but in NL so I also get to enjoy shitty EU regulations that are completely useless. There are many US based ETFs I am literally not allowed to buy because they don't offer a KID document in my local language (Dutch). Apparently, the EU thinks EU investors don't understand English and that a KID is useful. It's infuriating to say the least.
IBKR should be much cheaper
IBKR for day trading Schwab for investing
What brokerage did you use for that? The big banks suck in Canada. Only use Wealthsimple or IBKR in Canada. They are the only ones that make sense if you’re trading frequently!
Hello fellow Canadian retard, use IBKR
You decide, there’s basically no difference. You can transfer EUR even if your base account is in USD, that’s how I do it. When I transfer EUR, the money stays in the EUR account until I manually convert it to USD. IBKR fees aren’t high, $2 per transaction up to $100,000.
If i recall IBKR is multi. Just make sure they have an account in your country that you can send your native currency to. I would then set IBKR as USD primary for easy conversions. If IBKR doesnt have an bank account in your native currency, make sure you use something like Revolut to conver it, most likely your bank will have bad exchange rate. Overall goal for you is to not loose money on conversion fees within your bank. The FX conversion will happen either way but its better to do it inside IBKR.
That is why I prefer to bet professionally.... using 0D puts/calls and betting in IBKR ForecastTrader if the global average temperature will be going up this month.
Same for me on Saxo. I have amassed 7812 shares now, but can't buy options. I'm wondering if LYNX has them, they seem to be the Dutch daughter of IBKR.
if you have experience with IBKR, what should I do then? convert it to USD or just have it auto-converted once I place the order? should I hedge against the currency risk?
n the end, it comes out the same because, as you said, having your account in EUR doesn't matter since you're trading stocks that are in USD. If the price of the stock stays the same and the dollar drops, the value of your account will go down. I set mine to USD, even though it would have been better in EUR, because it's easier for me to deposit EUR. This way, I convert my EUR to USD (on Revolut, without a fee), then pay for the transfer and wait a few days. If I deposit EUR directly to IBKR, the deposit is instant, and then I convert EUR to USD, which usually costs me around 2 EUR, less than what I pay for a USD transaction (even with a Revolut Metal).
Where are you looking at futures now? IBKR is not showing and neither is CNBC
I have IBKR and Fidelity too. I got a 2% match for bringing cash over to Robinhood, and I think their mobile platform is better than the others. The margin rate is also lower.
I guess holding my calls on SOFI and IBKR was the right decision
The commissions are relatively low on IBKR and I usually get up to 0.25% slippage and I don’t ever a position if it’s more then that Also, I forgot to mention that it generates about 24 signals a year and that’s why I thought about a strategy that will make more profit from the signal
Why the broker risk tho ? Doesnt the risk depend on the order type and account type ? For me IBKR is just so useful and professional. I really dont see myself using any other broker that does something Ibkr couldnt. Maybe should try out. Fills are incredibly good and commissions and int rates are very cheap on the pro account.
> What margin requirements would there be when borrowing with box spreads? As already explained to you elsewhere (https://www.reddit.com/r/ibkr/comments/1lqvml4/comment/n166nde/), there are no margin requirements when trading a box spread in a Portfolio Margin account. It doesn't make any sense to trade Box Spreads in a non-Portfolio Margin account, as then there would be margin requirements. > If Premium is kept in the account and used to sell csp or buy broad indexes is there a limit? This doesn't make sense. The premium cannot be used to "sell csp" — you don't need cash to see a CSP, you get a _credit_ for selling a CSP. What you need is excess liquidity to sell a CSP, and the box spread does nothing to your excess liquidity — i.e., it does not take margin, and it does not free up margin either. > Do I just have to have excess liquidity to cover assignment at expiration day? Excess liquidity is irrelevant for Box Spreads. > Could I withdraw the funds before that time to pay other loans at higher rates? As long as you have excess liquidity, you can withdraw funds. This is 100% independent of the box spread. You could withdraw funds even without borrowing with a box spread, and you'd pay your broker's interest rate on the loan. Since you asked this exact question in r/ibkr, I'm assuming you're planning to do this with IBKR. So the _only_ difference between trading and not trading a box spread when borrowing money from your broker would be how much interest you're paying on that money: IBKR charges a little spread on loans above the benchmark rate, while with a box spread you'd essentially be paying risk-free (plus whatever you pay above that due to the bid-ask spread). I'd recommend reading up on how margin works in Portfolio Margin accounts.
WTF. Broker (IBKR) closed my bull call spread at $1.38 when it is fully ITM and expired with $2.00 intrinsic value.
Like the replies below, even local brokers not like IBKR has it.
What do you mean? I am based in EU and I hold position on CLBR. I use IBKR
Yep I know that so I was kinda worries for a while I was doing naked calls on IBKR because it didn't explicilty show it. But I have the shares to cover the amount of CCs so in the end it didn't matter. All the same though, I realised because of your comment that it doesn't really matter if they are blocked or not because it's writing a covered call anyway and in my scenario nothing changes necause of it being blocked or not. Thanks for the clarification, no worries!
There are two things a broker would need to support for that, a **conditional order** and a **sequential order or scripted order**. The first enables triggering an order on something other than the price of the asset controlled by the order, like buying to close a short call on the bid of the stock (or any stock or index), not the bid of the call. The second enables orders to execute in sequence, since you want the sell to close of the shares to come after the buy to close of the short call. Many brokers support conditional orders, but few support sequential orders, other than very specific order types like One Cancels the Other (OCO). For something this complicated, it would be better to write your own script and use trading APIs provided by the broker. Schwab thinkorswim has such trading APIs, I believe, and I think IBKR does also, but I'm not 100% sure.
Using IBKR in canada. Penny stock trader , looked at the commision fees. Highway robbery something I use to pay 0$ for with other broker. Thought 1% was the max. Can the commision be reduced? Shares 59200 Value $4493 Commision & fees $54.48 + 202.48 USD !!
IBKR is available, but isn't aligned with our tax system while others are. I do my own taxes now. Since I'm more of a swing trader/medium-term investor the amount of trades I make might overcomplicate filing taxes. How do you do it?
I'd recommend IBKR, if you're still looking for a broker with less fees.
> look exactly like sports betting. Let me introduce you to IBKR ForecastTrader. Same shit, but made to look "professional".... Bets like "Will the Average Global Temperature in July 2025 be greater than 1.26 degrees Celsius above the 20th century average?"
Fidelity and IBKR (and maybe others, not sure) allow you to trade Section 1256 contracts (e.g., SPX, NDX, VIX, XSP, etc.) in premarket hours.
IBKR calls. thank me later
yes it does. im holding BULL options on IBKR right now.
IBKR trying to eliminate competition. 💀
But my broker, IBKR, doesn't yet offer options on BULL
Not familiar with IBKR, As for the premium charts, its literally just a chart showing the prices the option has traded at, like a bar chart on a stock or future, only the chart is plotting the options prices. Each option strike and duration has its own ticker And just because the underlining goes up and down doesn’t mean that the option will increase or decrease. An option chart can also make you more picky with your premium. If the option is trading at $11 today, but two days ago it was at $30, You could probably get a fill if you set a limit order for $24 and just wait (might take a day or two)
lol you've hit the nail on the head. you can really tell how "intelligent" a person is by reading their messages/posts. with that being said, you can see that some moderators aren't that intelligent. just because you have administrative controls in a "group" doesn't mean that you were the brightest and most qualified for the role. sometimes it's just right place right time. anyways. $WOLF is currently sitting at 459.49% CTB fee, 20k shares left to borrow, and ~48% short interest. I didn't use ChatGPT, I used IBKR, Fintel, and Ortex. thank you for your time!
Thanks for the clear explanation. It makes intuitively sense. Yes gamma with a short term option has big impact on the delta of course. Exactly have to learn this option theory for technical trading interviews right now haha. One more question I have though: I constantly read in your posts that you have to look at the option premium graph. For myself I use IBKR, I am European, not sure if I can easily get a Think or Swim account. However for this option premium graph do you mean specifically the extrinsic value in the option value? Or just the complete value, that I can see at an option quote price chart in IBKR? Cause I don’t understand if that’s the case why to look at it, if underlying goes up, a spike in the option value is naturally clarifying the spike. But if there are charts specifically for the vega value, would be giving good insights into when to act upon certain cases. 2. Are you familiar with the IBKR trading app. They also have an IV rank and percentile. Are these numbers most likely the same for a certain stock as in the Think or Swim platform? Thanks sir
Who gets the call in 30 minutes? HOOD, IBKR, other
Dude, I know nothing, but I'd probably sell. Also, if anyone wants to open an IBKR account and gain free shares depending on how much you invest, use my referral link: [https://ibkr.com/referral/robert2693](https://ibkr.com/referral/robert2693)
I don’t use IBKR so I have no idea. But Schwab does have international accounts so you could open a brokerage account with them in Canada and will then have free access to Think or Swims platform.
I'm in Canada, does IBKR show this info?
I haven't looked too deeply into HOOD tbf. But I can tell you the other big brokers are trash except maybe IBKR and they appeal to a very small group of retail. The largest SCHW is garbage. ToS also part of SCHW same thing.
Damn such an accusational tone. My broker is doing exactly what I want since I purposefully didn't choose the trader level to be able to trade naked calls. Since I obviously don't know a lot about options I don't want to trade them naked by accident. It's just that the broker from my country explicitly shows it while IBKR doesn't (or at least bot that explicit because I haven't seen it). So I wanted to clarify that in my original comment and be as transparant as possible even if it doesn't change anything about the hypothesis. No blame shifting on decisions or anything is going on here. Anyway, thanks for the help I won' write CCs on them.
How did you unlock options on IBKR? I thought you needed 250k in an account to do that? They rejected me for options....
A lot of brokers offer instant exercise of options nowadays. (Atleast IBKR when you select the "make final" checkbox) If there is no liquidity on options,exercise on margin and dump the shares.
Alright boys, I'm going to tell you an actionable secret that will make you rich today. Juniper is being bought out by HPE, it will be removed from the S&P500 today. They typically replace it with a different stock on the same day, which means there will very likely be an S&P 500 addition today after the close. You'll see all of the top candidates like Hood, App, and IBKR are all up today as speculators get in. Big upside for whatever is added.
Been learning about them, really interesting but I need a little bit more money to get a margin account with IBKR. The app I’m using currently doesn’t allow PMCC
You should also post the performance, since in IBKR, if you deposit money, that's going to contribute to the increase in value of your portfolio
That’s just an IBKR visualization error Real performance is +600%’ish From 15K to 90K
Can you show us performance instead? For anyone not familiar with IBKR, the value graph is just the fund you have on the account. You could’ve just deposited alot of money.
How’d you set IBKR to show positions on the Dynamic Island?
Not sure on IBKR, on think or swim you just hold your finger on the strike on the mobile app
# INMB Short Squeeze Analysis: Probability and Expected Impact Based on the comprehensive short interest data and current market dynamics, **INMB has a moderate-to-high probability (35-45%) of experiencing a short squeeze within the next 30-45 days**, with potentially dramatic price movements if it occurs. ## Current Short Interest Dynamics ### Extreme Short Interest Metrics Your IBKR screenshot reveals critical short squeeze indicators: - **Shortable shares: 0** - No shares available to borrow for new short positions - **Borrow rate: 46.1%** - Exceptionally high cost to maintain short positions - **Rate volatility: 97.4% to 10.2%** - Extreme fluctuation in borrowing costs over the past month ### Institutional Data Confirmation Multiple sources confirm heavy short positioning: - **Short interest: 5.83 million shares (25.37% of float)**[1] - **Days to cover: 20.8 days** - indicating it would take over 20 trading days to cover all short positions[1] - **Alternative measurements show up to 38.48% short float**[2] ## Short Squeeze Probability Assessment: 35-45% ### Supporting Factors (Increasing Probability) **Technical Setup (High Impact)**: - **Zero borrowable shares** creates supply constraint for new shorts - **46% borrow rate** puts severe financial pressure on existing short positions - **20.8 days to cover** suggests significant time needed for orderly covering **Fundamental Catalysts (Medium-High Impact)**: - **AAIC presentation (July 27-31)** could provide positive subgroup data - **BTD filing response** expected within 60 days - **Market oversold conditions** after 61% weekly decline may attract contrarian buyers **Market Structure (Medium Impact)**: - **Small float** (16.5M shares) amplifies impact of covering[3] - **High retail interest** evident from social media and trading volume - **Biotech sector** historically prone to sentiment-driven squeezes ### Limiting Factors (Decreasing Probability) **Recent Negative Catalyst**: - **Phase 2 primary endpoint miss** provides fundamental justification for short positions - **Multiple analyst downgrades** with targets as low as $0.60 - **Continued bearish sentiment** may attract additional short interest despite high costs **Market Environment**: - **Biotech sector challenges** with limited funding and regulatory uncertainty - **Risk-off sentiment** may limit speculative buying needed to trigger squeeze ## Expected Impact If Short Squeeze Occurs ### Price Target Analysis **Conservative Squeeze Scenario (60% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $4.50 - $6.50** (115% - 210% upside) - **Duration: 2-5 trading days** - **Trigger: Positive AAIC data or BTD approval** **Aggressive Squeeze Scenario (25% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $8.00 - $12.00** (285% - 475% upside) - **Duration: 1-3 trading days** - **Trigger: Multiple positive catalysts + technical breakout** **Extreme Scenario (15% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $15.00+** (600%+ upside) - **Duration: Intraday to 2 days** - **Trigger: Major breakthrough + perfect storm of covering** ## Historical Context and Benchmarks ### Biotech Short Squeeze Precedents Recent biotech short squeezes provide context: - **Typical magnitude: 200-500% over 1-5 days** - **Sustainability: Most gains fade within 2-4 weeks** - **Volume characteristics: 5-20x normal volume during squeeze** ### INMB-Specific Factors - **Current price: $2.08** provides low base for percentage calculations - **Market cap: ~$53 million** allows for dramatic percentage moves - **Float: 16.5 million shares** creates manageable covering requirements ## Timing and Catalyst Sequence ### Most Likely Squeeze Triggers (Next 45 Days) **Primary Catalysts**: 1. **AAIC presentation positive reception** (July 27-31) - 40% probability 2. **BTD approval announcement** (August 2025) - 25% probability 3. **Technical breakout above $3.00** - 30% probability **Secondary Triggers**: - **Social media momentum** and retail buying surge - **Options activity** creating gamma squeeze dynamics - **Institutional covering** ahead of potential positive news ## Risk Management Considerations ### If You're Long INMB - **Profit-taking strategy**: Consider selling 25-50% of position if price reaches $4.50-$5.00 - **Stop-loss management**: Trail stops to protect gains during squeeze - **Volume monitoring**: Extreme volume (>10M shares) often marks squeeze peak ### Short Squeeze Sustainability **Historical pattern**: Most biotech short squeezes are **not sustainable**, with prices often returning to pre-squeeze levels within 2-4 weeks unless fundamental improvements materialize. ## Conclusion INMB presents a **compelling short squeeze setup** with 35-45% probability of occurrence. The combination of extreme short interest (25-38% of float), zero borrowable shares, and upcoming catalysts creates conditions similar to historical short squeeze events. **Expected magnitude**: 200-600% price appreciation over 1-5 trading days if squeeze occurs, with conservative targets of $4.50-$6.50 representing the most likely scenario. **Key insight**: The high probability reflects technical setup rather than fundamental improvement, making any squeeze likely to be **temporary unless accompanied by genuine positive clinical/regulatory developments**. For traders, this represents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity** requiring careful position sizing and active risk management given the binary nature of both the short squeeze potential and underlying biotech catalysts.
# INMB Short Squeeze Analysis: Probability and Expected Impact Based on the comprehensive short interest data and current market dynamics, **INMB has a moderate-to-high probability (35-45%) of experiencing a short squeeze within the next 30-45 days**, with potentially dramatic price movements if it occurs. ## Current Short Interest Dynamics ### Extreme Short Interest Metrics Your IBKR screenshot reveals critical short squeeze indicators: - **Shortable shares: 0** - No shares available to borrow for new short positions - **Borrow rate: 46.1%** - Exceptionally high cost to maintain short positions - **Rate volatility: 97.4% to 10.2%** - Extreme fluctuation in borrowing costs over the past month ### Institutional Data Confirmation Multiple sources confirm heavy short positioning: - **Short interest: 5.83 million shares (25.37% of float)**[1] - **Days to cover: 20.8 days** - indicating it would take over 20 trading days to cover all short positions[1] - **Alternative measurements show up to 38.48% short float**[2] ## Short Squeeze Probability Assessment: 35-45% ### Supporting Factors (Increasing Probability) **Technical Setup (High Impact)**: - **Zero borrowable shares** creates supply constraint for new shorts - **46% borrow rate** puts severe financial pressure on existing short positions - **20.8 days to cover** suggests significant time needed for orderly covering **Fundamental Catalysts (Medium-High Impact)**: - **AAIC presentation (July 27-31)** could provide positive subgroup data - **BTD filing response** expected within 60 days - **Market oversold conditions** after 61% weekly decline may attract contrarian buyers **Market Structure (Medium Impact)**: - **Small float** (16.5M shares) amplifies impact of covering[3] - **High retail interest** evident from social media and trading volume - **Biotech sector** historically prone to sentiment-driven squeezes ### Limiting Factors (Decreasing Probability) **Recent Negative Catalyst**: - **Phase 2 primary endpoint miss** provides fundamental justification for short positions - **Multiple analyst downgrades** with targets as low as $0.60 - **Continued bearish sentiment** may attract additional short interest despite high costs **Market Environment**: - **Biotech sector challenges** with limited funding and regulatory uncertainty - **Risk-off sentiment** may limit speculative buying needed to trigger squeeze ## Expected Impact If Short Squeeze Occurs ### Price Target Analysis **Conservative Squeeze Scenario (60% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $4.50 - $6.50** (115% - 210% upside) - **Duration: 2-5 trading days** - **Trigger: Positive AAIC data or BTD approval** **Aggressive Squeeze Scenario (25% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $8.00 - $12.00** (285% - 475% upside) - **Duration: 1-3 trading days** - **Trigger: Multiple positive catalysts + technical breakout** **Extreme Scenario (15% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $15.00+** (600%+ upside) - **Duration: Intraday to 2 days** - **Trigger: Major breakthrough + perfect storm of covering** ## Historical Context and Benchmarks ### Biotech Short Squeeze Precedents Recent biotech short squeezes provide context: - **Typical magnitude: 200-500% over 1-5 days** - **Sustainability: Most gains fade within 2-4 weeks** - **Volume characteristics: 5-20x normal volume during squeeze** ### INMB-Specific Factors - **Current price: $2.08** provides low base for percentage calculations - **Market cap: ~$53 million** allows for dramatic percentage moves - **Float: 16.5 million shares** creates manageable covering requirements ## Timing and Catalyst Sequence ### Most Likely Squeeze Triggers (Next 45 Days) **Primary Catalysts**: 1. **AAIC presentation positive reception** (July 27-31) - 40% probability 2. **BTD approval announcement** (August 2025) - 25% probability 3. **Technical breakout above $3.00** - 30% probability **Secondary Triggers**: - **Social media momentum** and retail buying surge - **Options activity** creating gamma squeeze dynamics - **Institutional covering** ahead of potential positive news ## Risk Management Considerations ### If You're Long INMB - **Profit-taking strategy**: Consider selling 25-50% of position if price reaches $4.50-$5.00 - **Stop-loss management**: Trail stops to protect gains during squeeze - **Volume monitoring**: Extreme volume (>10M shares) often marks squeeze peak ### Short Squeeze Sustainability **Historical pattern**: Most biotech short squeezes are **not sustainable**, with prices often returning to pre-squeeze levels within 2-4 weeks unless fundamental improvements materialize. ## Conclusion INMB presents a **compelling short squeeze setup** with 35-45% probability of occurrence. The combination of extreme short interest (25-38% of float), zero borrowable shares, and upcoming catalysts creates conditions similar to historical short squeeze events. **Expected magnitude**: 200-600% price appreciation over 1-5 trading days if squeeze occurs, with conservative targets of $4.50-$6.50 representing the most likely scenario. **Key insight**: The high probability reflects technical setup rather than fundamental improvement, making any squeeze likely to be **temporary unless accompanied by genuine positive clinical/regulatory developments**. For traders, this represents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity** requiring careful position sizing and active risk management given the binary nature of both the short squeeze potential and underlying biotech catalysts.
I haven't used option time and sales on IBKR, but pretty sure its there.
# INMB Short Squeeze Analysis: Probability and Expected Impact Based on the comprehensive short interest data and current market dynamics, **INMB has a moderate-to-high probability (35-45%) of experiencing a short squeeze within the next 30-45 days**, with potentially dramatic price movements if it occurs. ## Current Short Interest Dynamics ### Extreme Short Interest Metrics Your IBKR screenshot reveals critical short squeeze indicators: - **Shortable shares: 0** - No shares available to borrow for new short positions - **Borrow rate: 46.1%** - Exceptionally high cost to maintain short positions - **Rate volatility: 97.4% to 10.2%** - Extreme fluctuation in borrowing costs over the past month ### Institutional Data Confirmation Multiple sources confirm heavy short positioning: - **Short interest: 5.83 million shares (25.37% of float)**[1] - **Days to cover: 20.8 days** - indicating it would take over 20 trading days to cover all short positions[1] - **Alternative measurements show up to 38.48% short float**[2] ## Short Squeeze Probability Assessment: 35-45% ### Supporting Factors (Increasing Probability) **Technical Setup (High Impact)**: - **Zero borrowable shares** creates supply constraint for new shorts - **46% borrow rate** puts severe financial pressure on existing short positions - **20.8 days to cover** suggests significant time needed for orderly covering **Fundamental Catalysts (Medium-High Impact)**: - **AAIC presentation (July 27-31)** could provide positive subgroup data - **BTD filing response** expected within 60 days - **Market oversold conditions** after 61% weekly decline may attract contrarian buyers **Market Structure (Medium Impact)**: - **Small float** (16.5M shares) amplifies impact of covering[3] - **High retail interest** evident from social media and trading volume - **Biotech sector** historically prone to sentiment-driven squeezes ### Limiting Factors (Decreasing Probability) **Recent Negative Catalyst**: - **Phase 2 primary endpoint miss** provides fundamental justification for short positions - **Multiple analyst downgrades** with targets as low as $0.60 - **Continued bearish sentiment** may attract additional short interest despite high costs **Market Environment**: - **Biotech sector challenges** with limited funding and regulatory uncertainty - **Risk-off sentiment** may limit speculative buying needed to trigger squeeze ## Expected Impact If Short Squeeze Occurs ### Price Target Analysis **Conservative Squeeze Scenario (60% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $4.50 - $6.50** (115% - 210% upside) - **Duration: 2-5 trading days** - **Trigger: Positive AAIC data or BTD approval** **Aggressive Squeeze Scenario (25% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $8.00 - $12.00** (285% - 475% upside) - **Duration: 1-3 trading days** - **Trigger: Multiple positive catalysts + technical breakout** **Extreme Scenario (15% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $15.00+** (600%+ upside) - **Duration: Intraday to 2 days** - **Trigger: Major breakthrough + perfect storm of covering** ## Historical Context and Benchmarks ### Biotech Short Squeeze Precedents Recent biotech short squeezes provide context: - **Typical magnitude: 200-500% over 1-5 days** - **Sustainability: Most gains fade within 2-4 weeks** - **Volume characteristics: 5-20x normal volume during squeeze** ### INMB-Specific Factors - **Current price: $2.08** provides low base for percentage calculations - **Market cap: ~$53 million** allows for dramatic percentage moves - **Float: 16.5 million shares** creates manageable covering requirements ## Timing and Catalyst Sequence ### Most Likely Squeeze Triggers (Next 45 Days) **Primary Catalysts**: 1. **AAIC presentation positive reception** (July 27-31) - 40% probability 2. **BTD approval announcement** (August 2025) - 25% probability 3. **Technical breakout above $3.00** - 30% probability **Secondary Triggers**: - **Social media momentum** and retail buying surge - **Options activity** creating gamma squeeze dynamics - **Institutional covering** ahead of potential positive news ## Risk Management Considerations ### If You're Long INMB - **Profit-taking strategy**: Consider selling 25-50% of position if price reaches $4.50-$5.00 - **Stop-loss management**: Trail stops to protect gains during squeeze - **Volume monitoring**: Extreme volume (>10M shares) often marks squeeze peak ### Short Squeeze Sustainability **Historical pattern**: Most biotech short squeezes are **not sustainable**, with prices often returning to pre-squeeze levels within 2-4 weeks unless fundamental improvements materialize. ## Conclusion INMB presents a **compelling short squeeze setup** with 35-45% probability of occurrence. The combination of extreme short interest (25-38% of float), zero borrowable shares, and upcoming catalysts creates conditions similar to historical short squeeze events. **Expected magnitude**: 200-600% price appreciation over 1-5 trading days if squeeze occurs, with conservative targets of $4.50-$6.50 representing the most likely scenario. **Key insight**: The high probability reflects technical setup rather than fundamental improvement, making any squeeze likely to be **temporary unless accompanied by genuine positive clinical/regulatory developments**. For traders, this represents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity** requiring careful position sizing and active risk management given the binary nature of both the short squeeze potential and underlying biotech catalysts.
# INMB Short Squeeze Analysis: Probability and Expected Impact Based on the comprehensive short interest data and current market dynamics, **INMB has a moderate-to-high probability (35-45%) of experiencing a short squeeze within the next 30-45 days**, with potentially dramatic price movements if it occurs. ## Current Short Interest Dynamics ### Extreme Short Interest Metrics Your IBKR screenshot reveals critical short squeeze indicators: - **Shortable shares: 0** - No shares available to borrow for new short positions - **Borrow rate: 46.1%** - Exceptionally high cost to maintain short positions - **Rate volatility: 97.4% to 10.2%** - Extreme fluctuation in borrowing costs over the past month ### Institutional Data Confirmation Multiple sources confirm heavy short positioning: - **Short interest: 5.83 million shares (25.37% of float)**[1] - **Days to cover: 20.8 days** - indicating it would take over 20 trading days to cover all short positions[1] - **Alternative measurements show up to 38.48% short float**[2] ## Short Squeeze Probability Assessment: 35-45% ### Supporting Factors (Increasing Probability) **Technical Setup (High Impact)**: - **Zero borrowable shares** creates supply constraint for new shorts - **46% borrow rate** puts severe financial pressure on existing short positions - **20.8 days to cover** suggests significant time needed for orderly covering **Fundamental Catalysts (Medium-High Impact)**: - **AAIC presentation (July 27-31)** could provide positive subgroup data - **BTD filing response** expected within 60 days - **Market oversold conditions** after 61% weekly decline may attract contrarian buyers **Market Structure (Medium Impact)**: - **Small float** (16.5M shares) amplifies impact of covering[3] - **High retail interest** evident from social media and trading volume - **Biotech sector** historically prone to sentiment-driven squeezes ### Limiting Factors (Decreasing Probability) **Recent Negative Catalyst**: - **Phase 2 primary endpoint miss** provides fundamental justification for short positions - **Multiple analyst downgrades** with targets as low as $0.60 - **Continued bearish sentiment** may attract additional short interest despite high costs **Market Environment**: - **Biotech sector challenges** with limited funding and regulatory uncertainty - **Risk-off sentiment** may limit speculative buying needed to trigger squeeze ## Expected Impact If Short Squeeze Occurs ### Price Target Analysis **Conservative Squeeze Scenario (60% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $4.50 - $6.50** (115% - 210% upside) - **Duration: 2-5 trading days** - **Trigger: Positive AAIC data or BTD approval** **Aggressive Squeeze Scenario (25% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $8.00 - $12.00** (285% - 475% upside) - **Duration: 1-3 trading days** - **Trigger: Multiple positive catalysts + technical breakout** **Extreme Scenario (15% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $15.00+** (600%+ upside) - **Duration: Intraday to 2 days** - **Trigger: Major breakthrough + perfect storm of covering** ## Historical Context and Benchmarks ### Biotech Short Squeeze Precedents Recent biotech short squeezes provide context: - **Typical magnitude: 200-500% over 1-5 days** - **Sustainability: Most gains fade within 2-4 weeks** - **Volume characteristics: 5-20x normal volume during squeeze** ### INMB-Specific Factors - **Current price: $2.08** provides low base for percentage calculations - **Market cap: ~$53 million** allows for dramatic percentage moves - **Float: 16.5 million shares** creates manageable covering requirements ## Timing and Catalyst Sequence ### Most Likely Squeeze Triggers (Next 45 Days) **Primary Catalysts**: 1. **AAIC presentation positive reception** (July 27-31) - 40% probability 2. **BTD approval announcement** (August 2025) - 25% probability 3. **Technical breakout above $3.00** - 30% probability **Secondary Triggers**: - **Social media momentum** and retail buying surge - **Options activity** creating gamma squeeze dynamics - **Institutional covering** ahead of potential positive news ## Risk Management Considerations ### If You're Long INMB - **Profit-taking strategy**: Consider selling 25-50% of position if price reaches $4.50-$5.00 - **Stop-loss management**: Trail stops to protect gains during squeeze - **Volume monitoring**: Extreme volume (>10M shares) often marks squeeze peak ### Short Squeeze Sustainability **Historical pattern**: Most biotech short squeezes are **not sustainable**, with prices often returning to pre-squeeze levels within 2-4 weeks unless fundamental improvements materialize. ## Conclusion INMB presents a **compelling short squeeze setup** with 35-45% probability of occurrence. The combination of extreme short interest (25-38% of float), zero borrowable shares, and upcoming catalysts creates conditions similar to historical short squeeze events. **Expected magnitude**: 200-600% price appreciation over 1-5 trading days if squeeze occurs, with conservative targets of $4.50-$6.50 representing the most likely scenario. **Key insight**: The high probability reflects technical setup rather than fundamental improvement, making any squeeze likely to be **temporary unless accompanied by genuine positive clinical/regulatory developments**. For traders, this represents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity** requiring careful position sizing and active risk management given the binary nature of both the short squeeze potential and underlying biotech catalysts.
This might be the case, thought I changed it to max fill instead of max rebate.. hm. Thanks. I see time and sales on TWS IBKR for shares, but not sure how to get it for options? Do you know? Thanks again
# INMB Short Squeeze Analysis: Probability and Expected Impact Based on the comprehensive short interest data and current market dynamics, **INMB has a moderate-to-high probability (35-45%) of experiencing a short squeeze within the next 30-45 days**, with potentially dramatic price movements if it occurs. ## Current Short Interest Dynamics ### Extreme Short Interest Metrics Your IBKR screenshot reveals critical short squeeze indicators: - **Shortable shares: 0** - No shares available to borrow for new short positions - **Borrow rate: 46.1%** - Exceptionally high cost to maintain short positions - **Rate volatility: 97.4% to 10.2%** - Extreme fluctuation in borrowing costs over the past month ### Institutional Data Confirmation Multiple sources confirm heavy short positioning: - **Short interest: 5.83 million shares (25.37% of float)**[1] - **Days to cover: 20.8 days** - indicating it would take over 20 trading days to cover all short positions[1] - **Alternative measurements show up to 38.48% short float**[2] ## Short Squeeze Probability Assessment: 35-45% ### Supporting Factors (Increasing Probability) **Technical Setup (High Impact)**: - **Zero borrowable shares** creates supply constraint for new shorts - **46% borrow rate** puts severe financial pressure on existing short positions - **20.8 days to cover** suggests significant time needed for orderly covering **Fundamental Catalysts (Medium-High Impact)**: - **AAIC presentation (July 27-31)** could provide positive subgroup data - **BTD filing response** expected within 60 days - **Market oversold conditions** after 61% weekly decline may attract contrarian buyers **Market Structure (Medium Impact)**: - **Small float** (16.5M shares) amplifies impact of covering[3] - **High retail interest** evident from social media and trading volume - **Biotech sector** historically prone to sentiment-driven squeezes ### Limiting Factors (Decreasing Probability) **Recent Negative Catalyst**: - **Phase 2 primary endpoint miss** provides fundamental justification for short positions - **Multiple analyst downgrades** with targets as low as $0.60 - **Continued bearish sentiment** may attract additional short interest despite high costs **Market Environment**: - **Biotech sector challenges** with limited funding and regulatory uncertainty - **Risk-off sentiment** may limit speculative buying needed to trigger squeeze ## Expected Impact If Short Squeeze Occurs ### Price Target Analysis **Conservative Squeeze Scenario (60% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $4.50 - $6.50** (115% - 210% upside) - **Duration: 2-5 trading days** - **Trigger: Positive AAIC data or BTD approval** **Aggressive Squeeze Scenario (25% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $8.00 - $12.00** (285% - 475% upside) - **Duration: 1-3 trading days** - **Trigger: Multiple positive catalysts + technical breakout** **Extreme Scenario (15% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $15.00+** (600%+ upside) - **Duration: Intraday to 2 days** - **Trigger: Major breakthrough + perfect storm of covering** ## Historical Context and Benchmarks ### Biotech Short Squeeze Precedents Recent biotech short squeezes provide context: - **Typical magnitude: 200-500% over 1-5 days** - **Sustainability: Most gains fade within 2-4 weeks** - **Volume characteristics: 5-20x normal volume during squeeze** ### INMB-Specific Factors - **Current price: $2.08** provides low base for percentage calculations - **Market cap: ~$53 million** allows for dramatic percentage moves - **Float: 16.5 million shares** creates manageable covering requirements ## Timing and Catalyst Sequence ### Most Likely Squeeze Triggers (Next 45 Days) **Primary Catalysts**: 1. **AAIC presentation positive reception** (July 27-31) - 40% probability 2. **BTD approval announcement** (August 2025) - 25% probability 3. **Technical breakout above $3.00** - 30% probability **Secondary Triggers**: - **Social media momentum** and retail buying surge - **Options activity** creating gamma squeeze dynamics - **Institutional covering** ahead of potential positive news ## Risk Management Considerations ### If You're Long INMB - **Profit-taking strategy**: Consider selling 25-50% of position if price reaches $4.50-$5.00 - **Stop-loss management**: Trail stops to protect gains during squeeze - **Volume monitoring**: Extreme volume (>10M shares) often marks squeeze peak ### Short Squeeze Sustainability **Historical pattern**: Most biotech short squeezes are **not sustainable**, with prices often returning to pre-squeeze levels within 2-4 weeks unless fundamental improvements materialize. ## Conclusion INMB presents a **compelling short squeeze setup** with 35-45% probability of occurrence. The combination of extreme short interest (25-38% of float), zero borrowable shares, and upcoming catalysts creates conditions similar to historical short squeeze events. **Expected magnitude**: 200-600% price appreciation over 1-5 trading days if squeeze occurs, with conservative targets of $4.50-$6.50 representing the most likely scenario. **Key insight**: The high probability reflects technical setup rather than fundamental improvement, making any squeeze likely to be **temporary unless accompanied by genuine positive clinical/regulatory developments**. For traders, this represents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity** requiring careful position sizing and active risk management given the binary nature of both the short squeeze potential and underlying biotech catalysts.
I saw Mercury as well. My execution platform shows time and sales (WEX) IBKR should show this as well. Do you have your smart router set for "max rebate" at IBKR? Based on what you have said, here is my guess. You tried to hit the .10 bid. IBKR sent the order to another exchange (to give you a rebate) vs the exchange the bid was on. MM's on that exchange didn't want to pay .10 so the exchange than sent the order to the exchange the bid was on. The MM's on that exchange then took the order themselves before you were filled. You then kept dropping your offer until it was filled at .06.
# INMB Short Squeeze Analysis: Probability and Expected Impact Based on the comprehensive short interest data and current market dynamics, **INMB has a moderate-to-high probability (35-45%) of experiencing a short squeeze within the next 30-45 days**, with potentially dramatic price movements if it occurs. ## Current Short Interest Dynamics ### Extreme Short Interest Metrics Your IBKR screenshot reveals critical short squeeze indicators: - **Shortable shares: 0** - No shares available to borrow for new short positions - **Borrow rate: 46.1%** - Exceptionally high cost to maintain short positions - **Rate volatility: 97.4% to 10.2%** - Extreme fluctuation in borrowing costs over the past month ### Institutional Data Confirmation Multiple sources confirm heavy short positioning: - **Short interest: 5.83 million shares (25.37% of float)**[1] - **Days to cover: 20.8 days** - indicating it would take over 20 trading days to cover all short positions[1] - **Alternative measurements show up to 38.48% short float**[2] ## Short Squeeze Probability Assessment: 35-45% ### Supporting Factors (Increasing Probability) **Technical Setup (High Impact)**: - **Zero borrowable shares** creates supply constraint for new shorts - **46% borrow rate** puts severe financial pressure on existing short positions - **20.8 days to cover** suggests significant time needed for orderly covering **Fundamental Catalysts (Medium-High Impact)**: - **AAIC presentation (July 27-31)** could provide positive subgroup data - **BTD filing response** expected within 60 days - **Market oversold conditions** after 61% weekly decline may attract contrarian buyers **Market Structure (Medium Impact)**: - **Small float** (16.5M shares) amplifies impact of covering[3] - **High retail interest** evident from social media and trading volume - **Biotech sector** historically prone to sentiment-driven squeezes ### Limiting Factors (Decreasing Probability) **Recent Negative Catalyst**: - **Phase 2 primary endpoint miss** provides fundamental justification for short positions - **Multiple analyst downgrades** with targets as low as $0.60 - **Continued bearish sentiment** may attract additional short interest despite high costs **Market Environment**: - **Biotech sector challenges** with limited funding and regulatory uncertainty - **Risk-off sentiment** may limit speculative buying needed to trigger squeeze ## Expected Impact If Short Squeeze Occurs ### Price Target Analysis **Conservative Squeeze Scenario (60% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $4.50 - $6.50** (115% - 210% upside) - **Duration: 2-5 trading days** - **Trigger: Positive AAIC data or BTD approval** **Aggressive Squeeze Scenario (25% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $8.00 - $12.00** (285% - 475% upside) - **Duration: 1-3 trading days** - **Trigger: Multiple positive catalysts + technical breakout** **Extreme Scenario (15% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $15.00+** (600%+ upside) - **Duration: Intraday to 2 days** - **Trigger: Major breakthrough + perfect storm of covering** ## Historical Context and Benchmarks ### Biotech Short Squeeze Precedents Recent biotech short squeezes provide context: - **Typical magnitude: 200-500% over 1-5 days** - **Sustainability: Most gains fade within 2-4 weeks** - **Volume characteristics: 5-20x normal volume during squeeze** ### INMB-Specific Factors - **Current price: $2.08** provides low base for percentage calculations - **Market cap: ~$53 million** allows for dramatic percentage moves - **Float: 16.5 million shares** creates manageable covering requirements ## Timing and Catalyst Sequence ### Most Likely Squeeze Triggers (Next 45 Days) **Primary Catalysts**: 1. **AAIC presentation positive reception** (July 27-31) - 40% probability 2. **BTD approval announcement** (August 2025) - 25% probability 3. **Technical breakout above $3.00** - 30% probability **Secondary Triggers**: - **Social media momentum** and retail buying surge - **Options activity** creating gamma squeeze dynamics - **Institutional covering** ahead of potential positive news ## Risk Management Considerations ### If You're Long INMB - **Profit-taking strategy**: Consider selling 25-50% of position if price reaches $4.50-$5.00 - **Stop-loss management**: Trail stops to protect gains during squeeze - **Volume monitoring**: Extreme volume (>10M shares) often marks squeeze peak ### Short Squeeze Sustainability **Historical pattern**: Most biotech short squeezes are **not sustainable**, with prices often returning to pre-squeeze levels within 2-4 weeks unless fundamental improvements materialize. ## Conclusion INMB presents a **compelling short squeeze setup** with 35-45% probability of occurrence. The combination of extreme short interest (25-38% of float), zero borrowable shares, and upcoming catalysts creates conditions similar to historical short squeeze events. **Expected magnitude**: 200-600% price appreciation over 1-5 trading days if squeeze occurs, with conservative targets of $4.50-$6.50 representing the most likely scenario. **Key insight**: The high probability reflects technical setup rather than fundamental improvement, making any squeeze likely to be **temporary unless accompanied by genuine positive clinical/regulatory developments**. For traders, this represents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity** requiring careful position sizing and active risk management given the binary nature of both the short squeeze potential and underlying biotech catalysts.
# INMB Short Squeeze Analysis: Probability and Expected Impact Based on the comprehensive short interest data and current market dynamics, **INMB has a moderate-to-high probability (35-45%) of experiencing a short squeeze within the next 30-45 days**, with potentially dramatic price movements if it occurs. ## Current Short Interest Dynamics ### Extreme Short Interest Metrics Your IBKR screenshot reveals critical short squeeze indicators: - **Shortable shares: 0** - No shares available to borrow for new short positions - **Borrow rate: 46.1%** - Exceptionally high cost to maintain short positions - **Rate volatility: 97.4% to 10.2%** - Extreme fluctuation in borrowing costs over the past month ### Institutional Data Confirmation Multiple sources confirm heavy short positioning: - **Short interest: 5.83 million shares (25.37% of float)**[1] - **Days to cover: 20.8 days** - indicating it would take over 20 trading days to cover all short positions[1] - **Alternative measurements show up to 38.48% short float**[2] ## Short Squeeze Probability Assessment: 35-45% ### Supporting Factors (Increasing Probability) **Technical Setup (High Impact)**: - **Zero borrowable shares** creates supply constraint for new shorts - **46% borrow rate** puts severe financial pressure on existing short positions - **20.8 days to cover** suggests significant time needed for orderly covering **Fundamental Catalysts (Medium-High Impact)**: - **AAIC presentation (July 27-31)** could provide positive subgroup data - **BTD filing response** expected within 60 days - **Market oversold conditions** after 61% weekly decline may attract contrarian buyers **Market Structure (Medium Impact)**: - **Small float** (16.5M shares) amplifies impact of covering[3] - **High retail interest** evident from social media and trading volume - **Biotech sector** historically prone to sentiment-driven squeezes ### Limiting Factors (Decreasing Probability) **Recent Negative Catalyst**: - **Phase 2 primary endpoint miss** provides fundamental justification for short positions - **Multiple analyst downgrades** with targets as low as $0.60 - **Continued bearish sentiment** may attract additional short interest despite high costs **Market Environment**: - **Biotech sector challenges** with limited funding and regulatory uncertainty - **Risk-off sentiment** may limit speculative buying needed to trigger squeeze ## Expected Impact If Short Squeeze Occurs ### Price Target Analysis **Conservative Squeeze Scenario (60% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $4.50 - $6.50** (115% - 210% upside) - **Duration: 2-5 trading days** - **Trigger: Positive AAIC data or BTD approval** **Aggressive Squeeze Scenario (25% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $8.00 - $12.00** (285% - 475% upside) - **Duration: 1-3 trading days** - **Trigger: Multiple positive catalysts + technical breakout** **Extreme Scenario (15% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $15.00+** (600%+ upside) - **Duration: Intraday to 2 days** - **Trigger: Major breakthrough + perfect storm of covering** ## Historical Context and Benchmarks ### Biotech Short Squeeze Precedents Recent biotech short squeezes provide context: - **Typical magnitude: 200-500% over 1-5 days** - **Sustainability: Most gains fade within 2-4 weeks** - **Volume characteristics: 5-20x normal volume during squeeze** ### INMB-Specific Factors - **Current price: $2.08** provides low base for percentage calculations - **Market cap: ~$53 million** allows for dramatic percentage moves - **Float: 16.5 million shares** creates manageable covering requirements ## Timing and Catalyst Sequence ### Most Likely Squeeze Triggers (Next 45 Days) **Primary Catalysts**: 1. **AAIC presentation positive reception** (July 27-31) - 40% probability 2. **BTD approval announcement** (August 2025) - 25% probability 3. **Technical breakout above $3.00** - 30% probability **Secondary Triggers**: - **Social media momentum** and retail buying surge - **Options activity** creating gamma squeeze dynamics - **Institutional covering** ahead of potential positive news ## Risk Management Considerations ### If You're Long INMB - **Profit-taking strategy**: Consider selling 25-50% of position if price reaches $4.50-$5.00 - **Stop-loss management**: Trail stops to protect gains during squeeze - **Volume monitoring**: Extreme volume (>10M shares) often marks squeeze peak ### Short Squeeze Sustainability **Historical pattern**: Most biotech short squeezes are **not sustainable**, with prices often returning to pre-squeeze levels within 2-4 weeks unless fundamental improvements materialize. ## Conclusion INMB presents a **compelling short squeeze setup** with 35-45% probability of occurrence. The combination of extreme short interest (25-38% of float), zero borrowable shares, and upcoming catalysts creates conditions similar to historical short squeeze events. **Expected magnitude**: 200-600% price appreciation over 1-5 trading days if squeeze occurs, with conservative targets of $4.50-$6.50 representing the most likely scenario. **Key insight**: The high probability reflects technical setup rather than fundamental improvement, making any squeeze likely to be **temporary unless accompanied by genuine positive clinical/regulatory developments**. For traders, this represents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity** requiring careful position sizing and active risk management given the binary nature of both the short squeeze potential and underlying biotech catalysts.
# INMB Short Squeeze Analysis: Probability and Expected Impact Based on the comprehensive short interest data and current market dynamics, **INMB has a moderate-to-high probability (35-45%) of experiencing a short squeeze within the next 30-45 days**, with potentially dramatic price movements if it occurs. ## Current Short Interest Dynamics ### Extreme Short Interest Metrics Your IBKR screenshot reveals critical short squeeze indicators: - **Shortable shares: 0** - No shares available to borrow for new short positions - **Borrow rate: 46.1%** - Exceptionally high cost to maintain short positions - **Rate volatility: 97.4% to 10.2%** - Extreme fluctuation in borrowing costs over the past month ### Institutional Data Confirmation Multiple sources confirm heavy short positioning: - **Short interest: 5.83 million shares (25.37% of float)**[1] - **Days to cover: 20.8 days** - indicating it would take over 20 trading days to cover all short positions[1] - **Alternative measurements show up to 38.48% short float**[2] ## Short Squeeze Probability Assessment: 35-45% ### Supporting Factors (Increasing Probability) **Technical Setup (High Impact)**: - **Zero borrowable shares** creates supply constraint for new shorts - **46% borrow rate** puts severe financial pressure on existing short positions - **20.8 days to cover** suggests significant time needed for orderly covering **Fundamental Catalysts (Medium-High Impact)**: - **AAIC presentation (July 27-31)** could provide positive subgroup data - **BTD filing response** expected within 60 days - **Market oversold conditions** after 61% weekly decline may attract contrarian buyers **Market Structure (Medium Impact)**: - **Small float** (16.5M shares) amplifies impact of covering[3] - **High retail interest** evident from social media and trading volume - **Biotech sector** historically prone to sentiment-driven squeezes ### Limiting Factors (Decreasing Probability) **Recent Negative Catalyst**: - **Phase 2 primary endpoint miss** provides fundamental justification for short positions - **Multiple analyst downgrades** with targets as low as $0.60 - **Continued bearish sentiment** may attract additional short interest despite high costs **Market Environment**: - **Biotech sector challenges** with limited funding and regulatory uncertainty - **Risk-off sentiment** may limit speculative buying needed to trigger squeeze ## Expected Impact If Short Squeeze Occurs ### Price Target Analysis **Conservative Squeeze Scenario (60% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $4.50 - $6.50** (115% - 210% upside) - **Duration: 2-5 trading days** - **Trigger: Positive AAIC data or BTD approval** **Aggressive Squeeze Scenario (25% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $8.00 - $12.00** (285% - 475% upside) - **Duration: 1-3 trading days** - **Trigger: Multiple positive catalysts + technical breakout** **Extreme Scenario (15% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $15.00+** (600%+ upside) - **Duration: Intraday to 2 days** - **Trigger: Major breakthrough + perfect storm of covering** ## Historical Context and Benchmarks ### Biotech Short Squeeze Precedents Recent biotech short squeezes provide context: - **Typical magnitude: 200-500% over 1-5 days** - **Sustainability: Most gains fade within 2-4 weeks** - **Volume characteristics: 5-20x normal volume during squeeze** ### INMB-Specific Factors - **Current price: $2.08** provides low base for percentage calculations - **Market cap: ~$53 million** allows for dramatic percentage moves - **Float: 16.5 million shares** creates manageable covering requirements ## Timing and Catalyst Sequence ### Most Likely Squeeze Triggers (Next 45 Days) **Primary Catalysts**: 1. **AAIC presentation positive reception** (July 27-31) - 40% probability 2. **BTD approval announcement** (August 2025) - 25% probability 3. **Technical breakout above $3.00** - 30% probability **Secondary Triggers**: - **Social media momentum** and retail buying surge - **Options activity** creating gamma squeeze dynamics - **Institutional covering** ahead of potential positive news ## Risk Management Considerations ### If You're Long INMB - **Profit-taking strategy**: Consider selling 25-50% of position if price reaches $4.50-$5.00 - **Stop-loss management**: Trail stops to protect gains during squeeze - **Volume monitoring**: Extreme volume (>10M shares) often marks squeeze peak ### Short Squeeze Sustainability **Historical pattern**: Most biotech short squeezes are **not sustainable**, with prices often returning to pre-squeeze levels within 2-4 weeks unless fundamental improvements materialize. ## Conclusion INMB presents a **compelling short squeeze setup** with 35-45% probability of occurrence. The combination of extreme short interest (25-38% of float), zero borrowable shares, and upcoming catalysts creates conditions similar to historical short squeeze events. **Expected magnitude**: 200-600% price appreciation over 1-5 trading days if squeeze occurs, with conservative targets of $4.50-$6.50 representing the most likely scenario. **Key insight**: The high probability reflects technical setup rather than fundamental improvement, making any squeeze likely to be **temporary unless accompanied by genuine positive clinical/regulatory developments**. For traders, this represents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity** requiring careful position sizing and active risk management given the binary nature of both the short squeeze potential and underlying biotech catalysts.
# INMB Short Squeeze Analysis: Probability and Expected Impact Based on the comprehensive short interest data and current market dynamics, **INMB has a moderate-to-high probability (35-45%) of experiencing a short squeeze within the next 30-45 days**, with potentially dramatic price movements if it occurs. ## Current Short Interest Dynamics ### Extreme Short Interest Metrics Your IBKR screenshot reveals critical short squeeze indicators: - **Shortable shares: 0** - No shares available to borrow for new short positions - **Borrow rate: 46.1%** - Exceptionally high cost to maintain short positions - **Rate volatility: 97.4% to 10.2%** - Extreme fluctuation in borrowing costs over the past month ### Institutional Data Confirmation Multiple sources confirm heavy short positioning: - **Short interest: 5.83 million shares (25.37% of float)**[1] - **Days to cover: 20.8 days** - indicating it would take over 20 trading days to cover all short positions[1] - **Alternative measurements show up to 38.48% short float**[2] ## Short Squeeze Probability Assessment: 35-45% ### Supporting Factors (Increasing Probability) **Technical Setup (High Impact)**: - **Zero borrowable shares** creates supply constraint for new shorts - **46% borrow rate** puts severe financial pressure on existing short positions - **20.8 days to cover** suggests significant time needed for orderly covering **Fundamental Catalysts (Medium-High Impact)**: - **AAIC presentation (July 27-31)** could provide positive subgroup data - **BTD filing response** expected within 60 days - **Market oversold conditions** after 61% weekly decline may attract contrarian buyers **Market Structure (Medium Impact)**: - **Small float** (16.5M shares) amplifies impact of covering[3] - **High retail interest** evident from social media and trading volume - **Biotech sector** historically prone to sentiment-driven squeezes ### Limiting Factors (Decreasing Probability) **Recent Negative Catalyst**: - **Phase 2 primary endpoint miss** provides fundamental justification for short positions - **Multiple analyst downgrades** with targets as low as $0.60 - **Continued bearish sentiment** may attract additional short interest despite high costs **Market Environment**: - **Biotech sector challenges** with limited funding and regulatory uncertainty - **Risk-off sentiment** may limit speculative buying needed to trigger squeeze ## Expected Impact If Short Squeeze Occurs ### Price Target Analysis **Conservative Squeeze Scenario (60% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $4.50 - $6.50** (115% - 210% upside) - **Duration: 2-5 trading days** - **Trigger: Positive AAIC data or BTD approval** **Aggressive Squeeze Scenario (25% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $8.00 - $12.00** (285% - 475% upside) - **Duration: 1-3 trading days** - **Trigger: Multiple positive catalysts + technical breakout** **Extreme Scenario (15% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $15.00+** (600%+ upside) - **Duration: Intraday to 2 days** - **Trigger: Major breakthrough + perfect storm of covering** ## Historical Context and Benchmarks ### Biotech Short Squeeze Precedents Recent biotech short squeezes provide context: - **Typical magnitude: 200-500% over 1-5 days** - **Sustainability: Most gains fade within 2-4 weeks** - **Volume characteristics: 5-20x normal volume during squeeze** ### INMB-Specific Factors - **Current price: $2.08** provides low base for percentage calculations - **Market cap: ~$53 million** allows for dramatic percentage moves - **Float: 16.5 million shares** creates manageable covering requirements ## Timing and Catalyst Sequence ### Most Likely Squeeze Triggers (Next 45 Days) **Primary Catalysts**: 1. **AAIC presentation positive reception** (July 27-31) - 40% probability 2. **BTD approval announcement** (August 2025) - 25% probability 3. **Technical breakout above $3.00** - 30% probability **Secondary Triggers**: - **Social media momentum** and retail buying surge - **Options activity** creating gamma squeeze dynamics - **Institutional covering** ahead of potential positive news ## Risk Management Considerations ### If You're Long INMB - **Profit-taking strategy**: Consider selling 25-50% of position if price reaches $4.50-$5.00 - **Stop-loss management**: Trail stops to protect gains during squeeze - **Volume monitoring**: Extreme volume (>10M shares) often marks squeeze peak ### Short Squeeze Sustainability **Historical pattern**: Most biotech short squeezes are **not sustainable**, with prices often returning to pre-squeeze levels within 2-4 weeks unless fundamental improvements materialize. ## Conclusion INMB presents a **compelling short squeeze setup** with 35-45% probability of occurrence. The combination of extreme short interest (25-38% of float), zero borrowable shares, and upcoming catalysts creates conditions similar to historical short squeeze events. **Expected magnitude**: 200-600% price appreciation over 1-5 trading days if squeeze occurs, with conservative targets of $4.50-$6.50 representing the most likely scenario. **Key insight**: The high probability reflects technical setup rather than fundamental improvement, making any squeeze likely to be **temporary unless accompanied by genuine positive clinical/regulatory developments**. For traders, this represents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity** requiring careful position sizing and active risk management given the binary nature of both the short squeeze potential and underlying biotech catalysts.
# INMB Short Squeeze Analysis: Probability and Expected Impact Based on the comprehensive short interest data and current market dynamics, **INMB has a moderate-to-high probability (35-45%) of experiencing a short squeeze within the next 30-45 days**, with potentially dramatic price movements if it occurs. ## Current Short Interest Dynamics ### Extreme Short Interest Metrics Your IBKR screenshot reveals critical short squeeze indicators: - **Shortable shares: 0** - No shares available to borrow for new short positions - **Borrow rate: 46.1%** - Exceptionally high cost to maintain short positions - **Rate volatility: 97.4% to 10.2%** - Extreme fluctuation in borrowing costs over the past month ### Institutional Data Confirmation Multiple sources confirm heavy short positioning: - **Short interest: 5.83 million shares (25.37% of float)**[1] - **Days to cover: 20.8 days** - indicating it would take over 20 trading days to cover all short positions[1] - **Alternative measurements show up to 38.48% short float**[2] ## Short Squeeze Probability Assessment: 35-45% ### Supporting Factors (Increasing Probability) **Technical Setup (High Impact)**: - **Zero borrowable shares** creates supply constraint for new shorts - **46% borrow rate** puts severe financial pressure on existing short positions - **20.8 days to cover** suggests significant time needed for orderly covering **Fundamental Catalysts (Medium-High Impact)**: - **AAIC presentation (July 27-31)** could provide positive subgroup data - **BTD filing response** expected within 60 days - **Market oversold conditions** after 61% weekly decline may attract contrarian buyers **Market Structure (Medium Impact)**: - **Small float** (16.5M shares) amplifies impact of covering[3] - **High retail interest** evident from social media and trading volume - **Biotech sector** historically prone to sentiment-driven squeezes ### Limiting Factors (Decreasing Probability) **Recent Negative Catalyst**: - **Phase 2 primary endpoint miss** provides fundamental justification for short positions - **Multiple analyst downgrades** with targets as low as $0.60 - **Continued bearish sentiment** may attract additional short interest despite high costs **Market Environment**: - **Biotech sector challenges** with limited funding and regulatory uncertainty - **Risk-off sentiment** may limit speculative buying needed to trigger squeeze ## Expected Impact If Short Squeeze Occurs ### Price Target Analysis **Conservative Squeeze Scenario (60% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $4.50 - $6.50** (115% - 210% upside) - **Duration: 2-5 trading days** - **Trigger: Positive AAIC data or BTD approval** **Aggressive Squeeze Scenario (25% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $8.00 - $12.00** (285% - 475% upside) - **Duration: 1-3 trading days** - **Trigger: Multiple positive catalysts + technical breakout** **Extreme Scenario (15% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $15.00+** (600%+ upside) - **Duration: Intraday to 2 days** - **Trigger: Major breakthrough + perfect storm of covering** ## Historical Context and Benchmarks ### Biotech Short Squeeze Precedents Recent biotech short squeezes provide context: - **Typical magnitude: 200-500% over 1-5 days** - **Sustainability: Most gains fade within 2-4 weeks** - **Volume characteristics: 5-20x normal volume during squeeze** ### INMB-Specific Factors - **Current price: $2.08** provides low base for percentage calculations - **Market cap: ~$53 million** allows for dramatic percentage moves - **Float: 16.5 million shares** creates manageable covering requirements ## Timing and Catalyst Sequence ### Most Likely Squeeze Triggers (Next 45 Days) **Primary Catalysts**: 1. **AAIC presentation positive reception** (July 27-31) - 40% probability 2. **BTD approval announcement** (August 2025) - 25% probability 3. **Technical breakout above $3.00** - 30% probability **Secondary Triggers**: - **Social media momentum** and retail buying surge - **Options activity** creating gamma squeeze dynamics - **Institutional covering** ahead of potential positive news ## Risk Management Considerations ### If You're Long INMB - **Profit-taking strategy**: Consider selling 25-50% of position if price reaches $4.50-$5.00 - **Stop-loss management**: Trail stops to protect gains during squeeze - **Volume monitoring**: Extreme volume (>10M shares) often marks squeeze peak ### Short Squeeze Sustainability **Historical pattern**: Most biotech short squeezes are **not sustainable**, with prices often returning to pre-squeeze levels within 2-4 weeks unless fundamental improvements materialize. ## Conclusion INMB presents a **compelling short squeeze setup** with 35-45% probability of occurrence. The combination of extreme short interest (25-38% of float), zero borrowable shares, and upcoming catalysts creates conditions similar to historical short squeeze events. **Expected magnitude**: 200-600% price appreciation over 1-5 trading days if squeeze occurs, with conservative targets of $4.50-$6.50 representing the most likely scenario. **Key insight**: The high probability reflects technical setup rather than fundamental improvement, making any squeeze likely to be **temporary unless accompanied by genuine positive clinical/regulatory developments**. For traders, this represents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity** requiring careful position sizing and active risk management given the binary nature of both the short squeeze potential and underlying biotech catalysts.
# INMB Short Squeeze Analysis: Probability and Expected Impact Based on the comprehensive short interest data and current market dynamics, **INMB has a moderate-to-high probability (35-45%) of experiencing a short squeeze within the next 30-45 days**, with potentially dramatic price movements if it occurs. ## Current Short Interest Dynamics ### Extreme Short Interest Metrics Your IBKR screenshot reveals critical short squeeze indicators: - **Shortable shares: 0** - No shares available to borrow for new short positions - **Borrow rate: 46.1%** - Exceptionally high cost to maintain short positions - **Rate volatility: 97.4% to 10.2%** - Extreme fluctuation in borrowing costs over the past month ### Institutional Data Confirmation Multiple sources confirm heavy short positioning: - **Short interest: 5.83 million shares (25.37% of float)**[1] - **Days to cover: 20.8 days** - indicating it would take over 20 trading days to cover all short positions[1] - **Alternative measurements show up to 38.48% short float**[2] ## Short Squeeze Probability Assessment: 35-45% ### Supporting Factors (Increasing Probability) **Technical Setup (High Impact)**: - **Zero borrowable shares** creates supply constraint for new shorts - **46% borrow rate** puts severe financial pressure on existing short positions - **20.8 days to cover** suggests significant time needed for orderly covering **Fundamental Catalysts (Medium-High Impact)**: - **AAIC presentation (July 27-31)** could provide positive subgroup data - **BTD filing response** expected within 60 days - **Market oversold conditions** after 61% weekly decline may attract contrarian buyers **Market Structure (Medium Impact)**: - **Small float** (16.5M shares) amplifies impact of covering[3] - **High retail interest** evident from social media and trading volume - **Biotech sector** historically prone to sentiment-driven squeezes ### Limiting Factors (Decreasing Probability) **Recent Negative Catalyst**: - **Phase 2 primary endpoint miss** provides fundamental justification for short positions - **Multiple analyst downgrades** with targets as low as $0.60 - **Continued bearish sentiment** may attract additional short interest despite high costs **Market Environment**: - **Biotech sector challenges** with limited funding and regulatory uncertainty - **Risk-off sentiment** may limit speculative buying needed to trigger squeeze ## Expected Impact If Short Squeeze Occurs ### Price Target Analysis **Conservative Squeeze Scenario (60% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $4.50 - $6.50** (115% - 210% upside) - **Duration: 2-5 trading days** - **Trigger: Positive AAIC data or BTD approval** **Aggressive Squeeze Scenario (25% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $8.00 - $12.00** (285% - 475% upside) - **Duration: 1-3 trading days** - **Trigger: Multiple positive catalysts + technical breakout** **Extreme Scenario (15% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $15.00+** (600%+ upside) - **Duration: Intraday to 2 days** - **Trigger: Major breakthrough + perfect storm of covering** ## Historical Context and Benchmarks ### Biotech Short Squeeze Precedents Recent biotech short squeezes provide context: - **Typical magnitude: 200-500% over 1-5 days** - **Sustainability: Most gains fade within 2-4 weeks** - **Volume characteristics: 5-20x normal volume during squeeze** ### INMB-Specific Factors - **Current price: $2.08** provides low base for percentage calculations - **Market cap: ~$53 million** allows for dramatic percentage moves - **Float: 16.5 million shares** creates manageable covering requirements ## Timing and Catalyst Sequence ### Most Likely Squeeze Triggers (Next 45 Days) **Primary Catalysts**: 1. **AAIC presentation positive reception** (July 27-31) - 40% probability 2. **BTD approval announcement** (August 2025) - 25% probability 3. **Technical breakout above $3.00** - 30% probability **Secondary Triggers**: - **Social media momentum** and retail buying surge - **Options activity** creating gamma squeeze dynamics - **Institutional covering** ahead of potential positive news ## Risk Management Considerations ### If You're Long INMB - **Profit-taking strategy**: Consider selling 25-50% of position if price reaches $4.50-$5.00 - **Stop-loss management**: Trail stops to protect gains during squeeze - **Volume monitoring**: Extreme volume (>10M shares) often marks squeeze peak ### Short Squeeze Sustainability **Historical pattern**: Most biotech short squeezes are **not sustainable**, with prices often returning to pre-squeeze levels within 2-4 weeks unless fundamental improvements materialize. ## Conclusion INMB presents a **compelling short squeeze setup** with 35-45% probability of occurrence. The combination of extreme short interest (25-38% of float), zero borrowable shares, and upcoming catalysts creates conditions similar to historical short squeeze events. **Expected magnitude**: 200-600% price appreciation over 1-5 trading days if squeeze occurs, with conservative targets of $4.50-$6.50 representing the most likely scenario. **Key insight**: The high probability reflects technical setup rather than fundamental improvement, making any squeeze likely to be **temporary unless accompanied by genuine positive clinical/regulatory developments**. For traders, this represents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity** requiring careful position sizing and active risk management given the binary nature of both the short squeeze potential and underlying biotech catalysts.
# INMB Short Squeeze Analysis: Probability and Expected Impact Based on the comprehensive short interest data and current market dynamics, **INMB has a moderate-to-high probability (35-45%) of experiencing a short squeeze within the next 30-45 days**, with potentially dramatic price movements if it occurs. ## Current Short Interest Dynamics ### Extreme Short Interest Metrics Your IBKR screenshot reveals critical short squeeze indicators: - **Shortable shares: 0** - No shares available to borrow for new short positions - **Borrow rate: 46.1%** - Exceptionally high cost to maintain short positions - **Rate volatility: 97.4% to 10.2%** - Extreme fluctuation in borrowing costs over the past month ### Institutional Data Confirmation Multiple sources confirm heavy short positioning: - **Short interest: 5.83 million shares (25.37% of float)**[1] - **Days to cover: 20.8 days** - indicating it would take over 20 trading days to cover all short positions[1] - **Alternative measurements show up to 38.48% short float**[2] ## Short Squeeze Probability Assessment: 35-45% ### Supporting Factors (Increasing Probability) **Technical Setup (High Impact)**: - **Zero borrowable shares** creates supply constraint for new shorts - **46% borrow rate** puts severe financial pressure on existing short positions - **20.8 days to cover** suggests significant time needed for orderly covering **Fundamental Catalysts (Medium-High Impact)**: - **AAIC presentation (July 27-31)** could provide positive subgroup data - **BTD filing response** expected within 60 days - **Market oversold conditions** after 61% weekly decline may attract contrarian buyers **Market Structure (Medium Impact)**: - **Small float** (16.5M shares) amplifies impact of covering[3] - **High retail interest** evident from social media and trading volume - **Biotech sector** historically prone to sentiment-driven squeezes ### Limiting Factors (Decreasing Probability) **Recent Negative Catalyst**: - **Phase 2 primary endpoint miss** provides fundamental justification for short positions - **Multiple analyst downgrades** with targets as low as $0.60 - **Continued bearish sentiment** may attract additional short interest despite high costs **Market Environment**: - **Biotech sector challenges** with limited funding and regulatory uncertainty - **Risk-off sentiment** may limit speculative buying needed to trigger squeeze ## Expected Impact If Short Squeeze Occurs ### Price Target Analysis **Conservative Squeeze Scenario (60% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $4.50 - $6.50** (115% - 210% upside) - **Duration: 2-5 trading days** - **Trigger: Positive AAIC data or BTD approval** **Aggressive Squeeze Scenario (25% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $8.00 - $12.00** (285% - 475% upside) - **Duration: 1-3 trading days** - **Trigger: Multiple positive catalysts + technical breakout** **Extreme Scenario (15% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $15.00+** (600%+ upside) - **Duration: Intraday to 2 days** - **Trigger: Major breakthrough + perfect storm of covering** ## Historical Context and Benchmarks ### Biotech Short Squeeze Precedents Recent biotech short squeezes provide context: - **Typical magnitude: 200-500% over 1-5 days** - **Sustainability: Most gains fade within 2-4 weeks** - **Volume characteristics: 5-20x normal volume during squeeze** ### INMB-Specific Factors - **Current price: $2.08** provides low base for percentage calculations - **Market cap: ~$53 million** allows for dramatic percentage moves - **Float: 16.5 million shares** creates manageable covering requirements ## Timing and Catalyst Sequence ### Most Likely Squeeze Triggers (Next 45 Days) **Primary Catalysts**: 1. **AAIC presentation positive reception** (July 27-31) - 40% probability 2. **BTD approval announcement** (August 2025) - 25% probability 3. **Technical breakout above $3.00** - 30% probability **Secondary Triggers**: - **Social media momentum** and retail buying surge - **Options activity** creating gamma squeeze dynamics - **Institutional covering** ahead of potential positive news ## Risk Management Considerations ### If You're Long INMB - **Profit-taking strategy**: Consider selling 25-50% of position if price reaches $4.50-$5.00 - **Stop-loss management**: Trail stops to protect gains during squeeze - **Volume monitoring**: Extreme volume (>10M shares) often marks squeeze peak ### Short Squeeze Sustainability **Historical pattern**: Most biotech short squeezes are **not sustainable**, with prices often returning to pre-squeeze levels within 2-4 weeks unless fundamental improvements materialize. ## Conclusion INMB presents a **compelling short squeeze setup** with 35-45% probability of occurrence. The combination of extreme short interest (25-38% of float), zero borrowable shares, and upcoming catalysts creates conditions similar to historical short squeeze events. **Expected magnitude**: 200-600% price appreciation over 1-5 trading days if squeeze occurs, with conservative targets of $4.50-$6.50 representing the most likely scenario. **Key insight**: The high probability reflects technical setup rather than fundamental improvement, making any squeeze likely to be **temporary unless accompanied by genuine positive clinical/regulatory developments**. For traders, this represents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity** requiring careful position sizing and active risk management given the binary nature of both the short squeeze potential and underlying biotech catalysts.
# INMB Short Squeeze Analysis: Probability and Expected Impact Based on the comprehensive short interest data and current market dynamics, **INMB has a moderate-to-high probability (35-45%) of experiencing a short squeeze within the next 30-45 days**, with potentially dramatic price movements if it occurs. ## Current Short Interest Dynamics ### Extreme Short Interest Metrics Your IBKR screenshot reveals critical short squeeze indicators: - **Shortable shares: 0** - No shares available to borrow for new short positions - **Borrow rate: 46.1%** - Exceptionally high cost to maintain short positions - **Rate volatility: 97.4% to 10.2%** - Extreme fluctuation in borrowing costs over the past month ### Institutional Data Confirmation Multiple sources confirm heavy short positioning: - **Short interest: 5.83 million shares (25.37% of float)**[1] - **Days to cover: 20.8 days** - indicating it would take over 20 trading days to cover all short positions[1] - **Alternative measurements show up to 38.48% short float**[2] ## Short Squeeze Probability Assessment: 35-45% ### Supporting Factors (Increasing Probability) **Technical Setup (High Impact)**: - **Zero borrowable shares** creates supply constraint for new shorts - **46% borrow rate** puts severe financial pressure on existing short positions - **20.8 days to cover** suggests significant time needed for orderly covering **Fundamental Catalysts (Medium-High Impact)**: - **AAIC presentation (July 27-31)** could provide positive subgroup data - **BTD filing response** expected within 60 days - **Market oversold conditions** after 61% weekly decline may attract contrarian buyers **Market Structure (Medium Impact)**: - **Small float** (16.5M shares) amplifies impact of covering[3] - **High retail interest** evident from social media and trading volume - **Biotech sector** historically prone to sentiment-driven squeezes ### Limiting Factors (Decreasing Probability) **Recent Negative Catalyst**: - **Phase 2 primary endpoint miss** provides fundamental justification for short positions - **Multiple analyst downgrades** with targets as low as $0.60 - **Continued bearish sentiment** may attract additional short interest despite high costs **Market Environment**: - **Biotech sector challenges** with limited funding and regulatory uncertainty - **Risk-off sentiment** may limit speculative buying needed to trigger squeeze ## Expected Impact If Short Squeeze Occurs ### Price Target Analysis **Conservative Squeeze Scenario (60% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $4.50 - $6.50** (115% - 210% upside) - **Duration: 2-5 trading days** - **Trigger: Positive AAIC data or BTD approval** **Aggressive Squeeze Scenario (25% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $8.00 - $12.00** (285% - 475% upside) - **Duration: 1-3 trading days** - **Trigger: Multiple positive catalysts + technical breakout** **Extreme Scenario (15% probability if squeeze occurs)**: - **Target range: $15.00+** (600%+ upside) - **Duration: Intraday to 2 days** - **Trigger: Major breakthrough + perfect storm of covering** ## Historical Context and Benchmarks ### Biotech Short Squeeze Precedents Recent biotech short squeezes provide context: - **Typical magnitude: 200-500% over 1-5 days** - **Sustainability: Most gains fade within 2-4 weeks** - **Volume characteristics: 5-20x normal volume during squeeze** ### INMB-Specific Factors - **Current price: $2.08** provides low base for percentage calculations - **Market cap: ~$53 million** allows for dramatic percentage moves - **Float: 16.5 million shares** creates manageable covering requirements ## Timing and Catalyst Sequence ### Most Likely Squeeze Triggers (Next 45 Days) **Primary Catalysts**: 1. **AAIC presentation positive reception** (July 27-31) - 40% probability 2. **BTD approval announcement** (August 2025) - 25% probability 3. **Technical breakout above $3.00** - 30% probability **Secondary Triggers**: - **Social media momentum** and retail buying surge - **Options activity** creating gamma squeeze dynamics - **Institutional covering** ahead of potential positive news ## Risk Management Considerations ### If You're Long INMB - **Profit-taking strategy**: Consider selling 25-50% of position if price reaches $4.50-$5.00 - **Stop-loss management**: Trail stops to protect gains during squeeze - **Volume monitoring**: Extreme volume (>10M shares) often marks squeeze peak ### Short Squeeze Sustainability **Historical pattern**: Most biotech short squeezes are **not sustainable**, with prices often returning to pre-squeeze levels within 2-4 weeks unless fundamental improvements materialize. ## Conclusion INMB presents a **compelling short squeeze setup** with 35-45% probability of occurrence. The combination of extreme short interest (25-38% of float), zero borrowable shares, and upcoming catalysts creates conditions similar to historical short squeeze events. **Expected magnitude**: 200-600% price appreciation over 1-5 trading days if squeeze occurs, with conservative targets of $4.50-$6.50 representing the most likely scenario. **Key insight**: The high probability reflects technical setup rather than fundamental improvement, making any squeeze likely to be **temporary unless accompanied by genuine positive clinical/regulatory developments**. For traders, this represents a **high-risk, high-reward opportunity** requiring careful position sizing and active risk management given the binary nature of both the short squeeze potential and underlying biotech catalysts.
Using IBKR, I did not enter all or none. Apologies, looks like I actually got filled for 3 contracts at the exchance "MERCURY" not "NASDAQOM". How are you seeing the times that was traded? Which broker?
We recommend at least $1000, but more is better. As a risk management rule-of-thumb, keep the managed max loss of each trade to be no more than 10% of your total account value, so on $1000 that is a $100 max loss per trade. You can use a paper trading platform to learn the ropes without putting real money at risk. Schwab thinkorswim, WeBull, Power Etrade, and IBKR all offer paper versions of their real money options trading platforms.
Dude, at least spend 100 bucks / month to get live options data. I am getting PTSD from seeing these yellow backgrounds on IBKR pricing info…
I’m also in Europe, my IBKR mobile works fine
This may be the first time in a while that I open IBKR during my lunch break and SPY is red. Time to pack it up guys, bers won, SPY 578 end of the day is all but confirmed now.
Schwab .68 cents, Fidelity .65 cents, IBKR $1.06
They took the auto loan and turned it into the synthetic CDO. They’re no shares available to short through IBKR. Someone is pumping it up on low vol.