JPY
Lazard Japanese Equity ETF
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-50.00% Today
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In the last 24 hours, USD/JPY has dropped almost 2.5% without any new major announcements from BOJ or US Treasury.
Does the current market setup resemble the 2000 dot-com bubble?
Could we see a repeat of 1929 Wall Street Crash?
standing in the checkout line, milk and eggs, almost bought yen on my phone. still thinking about it
Mentions
>The last decades of low 10-year yields is indicative of American dominance in the global financial system That's a very simplistic view, and I only partially agree with it. TL;DR I believe things will have to change dramatically in the coming years for many reasons, and there will be a much needed re-balancing e.g. I've been short USD/JPY for quite a while now, which on its own will have a widespread impact as it unfolds.
**\[JAPAN / Subsidized National Project worth up to 158.7B JPY\] Official Admission of Inaccuracies in Resident Explanations and Factory Design Specs Permitting "Discharge of Firefighting Wastewater Out of Premises, Resulting in Flow into Lake Biwa" Under GS Yuasa's Latest EV Battery Factory Project** This is an official report based strictly on objective facts regarding the significant procedural irregularities, lack of administrative governance, and severe ongoing local opposition surrounding the lithium-ion battery factory construction project in Moriyama City, Shiga Prefecture, Japan. The project is being spearheaded by GS Yuasa Corporation and its affiliates (including GS Yuasa Technology) and has been granted a national subsidy of up to 158.7 billion JPY by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). Due to serious environmental and disaster-prevention concerns stemming from the factory's extreme proximity to a residential area (located just 40 to 80 meters from local homes), neighboring residents established a voluntary independent organization, "The Association to Connect a Safe Living Environment to the Future of Moriyama," and have been demanding official scientific safety evaluations and adequate containment infrastructure. During the official direct consultation held on September 13, 2026, between the incumbent Mayor of Moriyama City (Takafumi Morinaka), corporate executives from GS Yuasa, and local residents, the local authority and the company officially admitted and declared the following two critical procedural flaws and environmental discharge specifications on the public record, leading to a complete deadlock in negotiations: **\[Fact 1: Official Admission of Data Inaccuracies and Ongoing Revision of Safety Documents\]** In the official progress report distributed to residents by Moriyama City (the permitting authority) during the previous briefing on August 23, the administration included highly inaccurate descriptions claiming that the National Institute of Technology and Evaluation (NITE)—a public administrative institution of the Japanese government—had verified that the firefighting wastewater contained no toxic hydrogen fluoride and was completely safe. However, when the residents' association conducted a direct inquiry with NITE's official window on September 4, NITE officially and completely denied the claim, stating that NITE had never issued such a safety conclusion. Furthermore, during the public consultation on September 13, the Mayor of Moriyama City and the company executives officially admitted on the record that NITE had demanded the immediate removal and correction of these descriptions. They also confessed that as of that date, the correction process of the official government documents was still ongoing and incomplete. **\[Fact 2: Official Declaration of Factory Design Specs to Discharge Wastewater Out of Premises, Resulting in Flow into Lake Biwa\]** During the same public consultation on September 13, the corporate representatives officially admitted that regarding the design specifications of "Area A" of the factory, where construction is already underway, there is absolutely no disaster-prevention infrastructure—such as automatic shutoff valves, emergency retention dikes, or specific slope gradients—designed to isolate or retain firefighting wastewater within the facility in the event of an emergency (e.g., thermal runaway fires or a major earthquake). Concurrently, the corporate side officially declared that the current engineering specifications are set to allow firefighting wastewater, which would inevitably contain highly toxic substances (such as hydrofluoric acid), to be discharged out of the premises. Under these engineering specifications, it is an established physical fact that **\[ the firefighting wastewater will be discharged into the regional storm drainage system, resulting in a direct flow into Lake Biwa, the largest lake in Japan and the primary water source for 14 million people in the region. \]** The local municipal and prefectural administrations have approved the development permits and are pushing forward with construction, ignoring the residents' concerns, solely on the formalistic ground that the current paperwork satisfies the minimum requirements under existing local building and fire regulations. End of report. An Independent Whistleblower
yes because they're so good at intervention. Bessent's been on a roll with his JPY, Oil, Bonds bulshit
Meanwhile, real traders are using cheap JPY-denominated debt to for leverage when buying their bonds.
My fellow degens, it's legit time to go short USD/JPY
Honestly probably a better idea than buying Japanese Yen (JPY) 5-10 billion$
Hmm, I didn't look into it in detail, so take it with a grain of salt. Some assumptions of possible future events or risks that I would consider and their likelihood: - US dollar will almost certainly (continue to) devalue because the government sits on a huge pile of debt and the interest (bond yield) they have to pay on it increases for 30 and 10 year bonds despite the fact that the treasury is buying them back which is supposed to stabilize ir lower the yields. This means people don't trust the us as debtor anymore (especially US allies sell bonds, and Japan structurally has to, to support the yen value against the US dollar, see carry trade). The main cause is rising inflation that foreseeably stays high (Iran war, Ru-Ukr war, increasing fuel and gas prices for years to come). The only thing the US can do to address these structural inflation/debt/interest problems is: stabilize household (reduce spending, increase taxes, especially for the wealthy) but let's be honest, they have not a history of doing that. So money printer goes brrr, QE, US dollar devalues (also because it's on its way of not being the global curency standard anymore). - AI speculation may or may not work out. It cannot be reliably predicted yet because efficiency gains might seriously push prices lower and disruptive technologies are being developed. I'll not go into the details here, although I am very well informed, following it daily and heavy AI user for coding myself. What we can say: a lot (hundreds of billioln, possibly trillions) are in there, mag7 values are blown up horribly due to mainly future expectations and general US stock market is still at the upper limit of PE/Shiller (both not perfect but give an idea) valuation. So, the risk of a bubble, a pop and a major course correction is very real. What we can say: at least valuations are so high, most stocks are not are not worth investing, given the risk. So, what would I invest in? Difficult. Probably a good old diversified mix (for long term) or pick out specific stocks (short term, if you have the time to invest): - No US stuff - No bonds (dollar devaluation) - No US stocks, except single picks (not affected by USD devaluation but prices are high already and AI circle jerk outcome highly uncertain) So that leaves us with: - Global developed conuntry stocks (I have not informed myself here about global macros, industries, valuations, etc., so I cannot tell you which countries/industries). Random guess I would at least look into: EU (prices possibly more moderate than US), China (I know nothing about it, but the market has established itself and the government has proven to stable and working (so far) long term plans which - see AI, robotics, renewables, electric cars, electrinics). My best bet would be ETFs (for old-school boring global diversification long term, but global market ETFs will also go down if US stock market drops, so use it at your own risk or stay informed to be ready to jump the boat at the right moment, just in case) or get informed about Chinese stocks (heck, I think the memory company that recently IPOed launched with a 6x increase! If I would have the time to day trade, this would have been a huge win, as well as some other possible candidates, like the robot companies. The Cgov openly announces ehich industries they will pump money into, so that's free money for investors. Not a China fanboy, certainly not of the C-gov, but look at Singapore. A kind of dictatorship with a long term plan - it worked before - and it seems to work in China too). - Emerging markets I have no clue about. Never followed. India as well, no idea. I guess if you have time to spend, there might be some opportunities in emerging countries for specific picks but also risky. See quite a few examples of Indian fraud scandals. Ain't nobody got time for that. - Then some boring diversification mix. At least exchange your USD to any other currency (again, I have not done research on which would be best and what ratio). Maybe CHF, EUR, and some other "western democracy" currencies, maybe even chinese CNY (if they don't manipulate the shit out if it anymore, which they probably still do, would need to check. At least the gov will keep it relatively stable but gov might also lower it if possible but currently too much upwards pressure). No JPY, obviously! Maybe some gold. I don't have time for active trading currenlty. So, if you really want to avoid holding USD, which I would highly recommend (I would def not hold USD as it will continue to devalue): tld;dr: everything not USD, prob no US stocks (except specific picks) - global ETFs, look into China stock picks, EU/western/China currencies.
Am I fucking crazy or is this a good time to go short JPY?
Probably long GBP/JPY or EUR/JPY.
because a lot of institutional buyers of US bonds are only doing it because there is an unpatched free money glitch in the form of low interest Japanese money that they convert to USD and then buy bulk bonds. those bonds pay a higher return than the interest on the loan in JPY, they pocket the difference if the rates increase in JPY, this exploit gets patched and a lot of people's investment strategy gets nerfed but more importantly the US treasury can't sell (increasingly worthless) bonds
extra ironic considering his hedge fund closed down after he fucked up trades involving oil and JPY which led to his investors bailing on him
Forex wise you can do USD/JPY...or any other currency and JPY...
No connection to leverage or sizing. The yen get a lot stronger against the dollar in September. If I convert USD investments back to JPY to pay bills then they are worth a lot less than they were back in August.
I haven't traded USD/JPY long but honestly Bessent stepping in has made really nice shorts on it. Really strong, and this last one was almost too obvious since Bessent and Ueda met in NC for G20 and USD/JPY was over 160. However intervention without meaningful policy or fiscal change is only temporary. I expect it to drift up to 160 again eventually and I will be looking for another short. I'm debating if I want to long it at some point since I believe 153-155 is the sweet spot on what they want USDJPY to be. But I'm not sure so I don't know if I want to risk a long yet or just wait for the short.
Which is why he's defending the Yen. When USD/JPY gets up around 160, it puts pressure on the BOJ to hike rates, so that's roughly the ceiling where the carry trade runs out of gas and the markets get choppy. The BOJ doesn't want to hike. Their debt levels are worse than ours. So Bessent wants the Japanese to keep buying Treasuries, their pensions can get yield from us that they can't get at home and it's a win/win. But more importantly it keeps the global liquidity engine flowing so it continues funding investment in US AI companies. So what he's doing here is subsidizing the carry. It's like QE but in a foreign currency. Or like a Yen put replacing the old Fed put by moving one step upstream. They're using the FIMA facility to do this, which was created as COVID broke out to ensure global liquidity. Today it has a limit of $60B per day. Bessent has asked for unlimited access so he can use the full one trillion dollars the BOJ has in US Treasuries as collateral. Then it's not a drip of liquidity like QE was, but a threat of overwhelming force applied to each intervention episode. The way he's talking right now is more of the same. He wants to scare anyone away from trying him. And I wouldn't really doubt him on this. He's a global scale currency trader that ironically made his money betting against the Yen. And now he's working with the BOJ and has almost unlimited dry powder once the Fed expands FIMA for him, which they will.
this keep getting lower bad things gonna happen 1 USD = 153.5100 JPY
The current USD/JPY action is already pricing in a hike, so I’m not too worried about that specific move day-of or otherwise in this case.
Man, USD/JPY is moving crazy. It's definitely hitting 150 this week.
Bessent- **“To Do — Buy Japanese Yen (JPY) $5–10 bil.”**
I’m gonna warn y’all again. JPY strengthened to its highest levels since February. Expect yen carry trade margin calls at open and bond yields to spike since they sold treasuries to strengthen their currency. With oil rising, I think the 10 year yield will be in the 4.85 range. Dump coming at open tomorrow and I’m a bull lol
1 USD = 154.3200 JPY and dropping
So we buying calls on GLD at open tomorrow right? USD/JPY dumping today already with BOJ rate hike next week, with DXY dumping. Could also get some fun QQQ 09/18 puts
USD/JPY dropping more than 1% within an hour despite higher chance of rank hike, obviously intervention.
This JPY intervention is really working.
I've been trading oil, especially on the weekends (mostly on hyperliquid), it seems generally bullish. WTI is around 92 now and I think it could go to 95 next days (unless some deal / de-escalation is announced which to me seems unlikely right now). I think brent could get to 100 tbh. I have small long position now, curious what price it'll open at lol. The thing is Bessent can prop it up, but he also needs to keep intervening in bonds and JPY. I think you can structure a trade around all 3 of these predicated on the assumption that one of them will give.
I'm long oil, I've been considering long JPY but might be greedy.
Oh no Bessent logged into his Bloomberg terminal, JPY watch out
I'm playing with fire here holding the JPY short open till market close. I can hear Bessent's cheeks clapping as he's slowly sneaking up behind me
I really hope Bessent / BoJ are busy and not looking at the JPY chart rn, another 2 hours please]
So is Bessent gon ram his dick up my ass one last time before JPY/USD market closes tonight? Stay tuned!
JPY pumping, Nikkei pumping :ahyes:
Do we still have to pretend there isn’t a JPY intervention? Media waited until Japan admitted it the first time.
So why the fuck did the JPY dump so ahrd given the yields in the US are climbing up? Am I missing something?
Watching YEN re-weaken despite currency manipulation happening in realtime too. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPY=X/
the only green position I have rn is the JPY long, funny fucking times
Went long JPY earlie today at 155. Can't wait to get obliterated overnight
Today is just USD-JPY day, exactly the same movement like last time.
Drill team 6 has hit the USD/JPY
Why is USD/JPY drilling
wow JPY is up 1.7% in the past 4 hours lmfao
JPY is still gonna sell off again over the next weeks. Probably some more fuckery by Bessent and BoJ but they're cooked and not getting out of this shit long term
My god they keep plowing the JPY
JPY just rose 1% in 45 minutes. read the room
Wow carnage continues in realtime https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JPY=X USD being dumped hard. Gonna be some "nasth" tweets tomorrow, but VIX will probably do nothing.
JPY up almost 1% in just the past 60 minutes
Seems like JPY intervention and unwind of carry trade.
This JPY situation is funny. We'll see what FOMC says in a couple of weeks.
Did they intervene in USD/JPY or just a random dump?
USD/JPY deciding to dump for no reason 10 mins before the bell
It’s not just about the yield! Japanese investors also have to consider USD/JPY and the cost of hedging currency risk. After hedging costs, the Treasury yield advantage may be much smaller than it looks
The FX and hedging costs are the big factors. A 4.8% Treasury yield looks attractive until you subtract the cost of hedging USD back to JPY. At 3% JGB yields, the advantage is getting much thinner.
Oh what the fuck Hyperliquid let's you trade USD/JPY at 50x leverage :ahyes:
When USD/JPY and the 10 Year is in the “popular” section of your investing app you know it’s going to be a bad day.
Doesn't mean they are not going to try it. With those JPY 10-year rates at 3.011% today, they are well on their way. Their inflation rate is about to hit 2% annually after hovering around 0% for more than 20 years. As for the result this time around? I don't know because the Trump admin is doing their own crazy moves and we know their plans change on a day-to-day basis.
The key is that Japanese investors aren’t simply comparing a 3% JGB yield with a higher U.S. Treasury yield. For an unhedged investor, Treasuries come with USD/JPY exposure, so a strengthening yen could easily erase the additional yield. For a hedged investor, the cost of hedging dollars back into yen can significantly reduce or even eliminate the yield advantage.
Do I detect sarcasm sir? * Dumping SPR down to levels where caverns will collapse and cause permanent damage: Oil ⬆️ * Bond market manipulated with gimmicks like buybacks and restricted issuance: Bond Yields ⬆️ * Dumping Euro to manipulate Yen: USD/JPY ⬆️ Every metric is going up. I don't see the issue.
Dumping SPR down to levels where caverns will collapse and cause permanent damage: Oil ⬆️ Bond market manipulated with gimmicks like buybacks and restricted issuance: Bond Yields ⬆️ Dumping Euro to manipulate Yen: USD/JPY ⬆️
# The avengers are back! # Oil ⬆️ # Bond Yields ⬆️ # USD/JPY ⬆️
Bessent's Key Square Capital management fund shrank from $5b AUM to under $500m before closing shop after bad bets involving JPY and oil. He's definitely the right man for the job to fuck this up again. lol
Lower return on differential + higher cost of financing + greater forex instability = JPY/USD carry trade not worth it any more?
US10Y about to hit 4.8%, JPY above 160 Oh, and Brent pushing hitting 95 and WTI 89. Scotty doesn’t know why. Any more of that government intervention left, Bessent?
Sell everything. Bonds are thing you there’s a shit storm coming our way. JPY bonds the highest they have been in 3 decades…….
Sorry Bols, today is our turn for a fukking! War back on the menu, interest rate hike, JPY weakness.
It’s demonstrably false. It doesn’t take a genius to understand how USD/JPY, Japanese government bonds demand, current leverage trade in U.S. stocks and private credit industry is a full circle. FYI, the 2 year JGB auction last Friday was poor and weak demand. So let’s see what happens to the interest rate differential with the United States & then how far Mr. Bessent can save his buddies 😉
you can spend in many ways though, you can spend on wars, you can spend on propping up the JPY, you can spend on shorting oil or tax cuts, not all of them result in the same productivity growth.
Fed’s hands are tied. They won’t be doing anything because if they hike rates, they will trigger a bond crisis. The past couple of months prove it with the bond repurchases and the JPY rescue. Treasury long term yields are surging and the JPY weakening (sitting back at 160 again). Hiking rates will be the ultimate stupid move. They’re better off with inflation. The ultimate solution though that may actually work? The Trump administration and Congress needs to get their shit together and introduce significant austerity measures. Taxes on everyone including corporations…. Significantly. Cut back on social security, Medicare, benefits, military spending, etc. at least have a believable plan to bring back fiscal discipline. Somehow I doubt this is even on their agenda.
USD/JPY recently has had these mystery dumps right before markets close, as if someone wants to artificially inflate yen value before the rates get locked for the weekend Wonder if that'll happen today too
lol USD/JPY is ripping off of Warsh's dumb speech
If you think 🌽 is a scam, just wait until you learn more about USD, EUR, JPY…
just got registered mail right now granted access to a better casino watch USD/JPY hit the top once I actually commit to a carry trade
He even trolled reporters by including JPY
Anyone made on the short today, USD/JPY
Very good point about JPY. Despite the official story, US "helped" JPY for far more darker reasons than just "they are good allies". You are spot on here.
The CAD is up exactly the same as the JPY, GBP and AUD vs USD today. It's up less than the Euro and Swiss frank. Today has nothing to do with tariffs, the market has slowly been pricing in the TACO for the whole month.
Hmm looks like the US is hellbent on saving the JPY.
The purpose of the doubling 30yr buyback was more like the buy JPY notepad. Less about the immediate scale and more a reminder that QE or intervention will be deployed.
is the market hopeful that UAE and its embargo are gona choke out Iran? USD/JPY dropping now, I bet yields will follow tomorrow as well.
too many things to keep track of man. on top of whores muse, taco, fundamentals, forward PEs, i gota keep check on the USD/JPY and now 10 and 30yr treasury yields and whatever bess-ant wrote on his fucking notepad?
Bonds (JPY and USA), Oil, Mango, South Korea, Yen and Iran. There's plenty of news.
Treasury did something against all conventions: sold EURO to fund JPY intervention. They didn't notify EU until they already done that. BTW throwing B$ at JPY did nothing, JP isn't Venezuela... It is one of the most traded pairs on forex T$ per day exchanged. Scott is just gambling with US people's money, he think he's back at managing his hedgefund, what's the difference? money wasn't his anyway.
Bond markets trade expectation. Therefore inflation must not have materialized yet, higher oil prices can be enough. I don’t know which currency pairing you were looking at. JPY are a special situation on its own. EURUSD seems more or less the same for a longer time. CNH has actually gained against USD. I could not find any effect in regards to buying oil in USD.
You didn't mention the cluster that is Takaichi, who is determined to just print and spend money like there is no tomorrow, tax cut her way to maintaining popularity and go full right on immigration. The previous 2 PMs might not have been popular and boring but they were actually slowly paying down the national debt, trying to increase immigration to combat the dwindling tax base. The biggest factors in my opinion are aftermath of Corona that was been managed but the combo of the Iran war and Takaichi, is really putting Japan in a bad spot, since the JPY Carry Trade isn't new and has been going on for a long time (it is responsible for a significant amount of US stock investments).
can't wait for BOJ to sell treasuries to defend JPY
bessent will buy some JPY again using Schrutebucks
I don’t understand how this is a thing if the japanese rate hikes are already reflected in the TONA overnight futures, you would need something even more hawkish on the JPY side to trigger the thing youre talking about
Treasury and the BOJ are pulling out all the stops to keep the Yen from 160. They incinerated tens of billions of dollars less than 3 weeks ago, including using Euros to buy JPY, just to drop it from 163 to 157, and its already inching back up to 160 again
The August 2024 selloff showed the mechanism, but “eventually” is doing a lot of work here. A carry unwind needs a catalyst like rapid BoJ tightening, falling US yields, or a volatility spike that forces deleveraging; Japanese inflation alone doesn’t guarantee a crash. Fwiw, USD/JPY and cross-currency funding stress matter more than a generic story about institutions borrowing yen to buy SPY.
It's Wall street that's leveraged in JPY though. They buy JPY at a low, convert it to USD and but equities Decreasing the profitability by closing the gap between rates will just force the leveraged positions to sell their US equities to cover their yen positions.
Big mistake defending JPY from Scotty B. Traders smell blood and are about to test you 10x harder now 😬
Either oil or JPY, sorry :jpow:
I m in Japan and those interventions are just a good opportunity to sell our yen even more . People here as soon as they have a bit of saving are buying USD or US stock or whatever not in JPY. And for Japanese cies and insurers it makes no sense to repatriate their USD in japan , it is way better to buy US treasuries . There is a strong capital flight in Japan and it won’t stop unless US eco is totally collapsing
Yeah, this is the part people are failing to see, and it's actually fairly simple: 1. Japan will buy JPY using USD in order to protect its value. 2. Japan is running out of USD reserves due to several years of continuously doing this 3. Japan can secure more USD by selling US treasuries, of which they are the largest foreign holder. 4. The US does not want Japan to sell its treasuries, since our yields are already elevated. 5. So the US uses its own currency reserves (although notably not USD) to perform intervention on Japan's behalf Ultimately, it just buys Japan time. Whether or not they can defend the yen long enough for interest rates in the US to fall (unwinding the yen carry trade) is already an open question. Whether it can continue without selling treasuries is a closed one. Unless the US commits even more reserves to the yen, Japan will be forced to sell.
We are all waiting for the AI music to stop but the JPY wants to be the one to hit pause!😂
USD to JPY already creeping back up. Bessent gonna stage another “to-do” list 🤔