KSA
iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF
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$NCI.v at $0.035 on the TSX-Venture (Canada) news: NTG CLARITY REPORTS A RECORD FIRST QUARTER 2023 WITH $635K PROFIT AND A REVENUE OF $6.1M
$NCI at $0.035 on the TSX-Venture (Canada) news: NTG CLARITY NETWORKS ANNOUNCES YEAR-END 2022 FINANCIAL RESULTS WITH $788K PROFIT AND Q4 REVENUE OF $5.74M
Why $LCID will Dominate the MEA’s $3B+ EV Market
Oil prices are already +4.7% in private trading after >1 mln bbl supply cut announced this AM. Source: my cousin trades oil for a big firm in Switzerland.
KSA Injects Nitro on CBDC Study. Plans to Rely Less on Oil
Market Crash and Food Crisis YOLO Update 10/24
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Yeah, Iran and Saudi Arabia have been adversaries for a long time. If it were that easy to force a regime change in KSA, Iran would have done it. You're simply talking out of your ass.
Iran is open to diplomacy insofar as they get to keep their nuclear program and their regime. If Iran gets nukes, KSA and Turkey get nukes next and maybe even Iraq and UAE and suddenly the whole region is a tinderbox.
>Again, you’re spinning yourself into a doom spiral. Idk what makes you think this, I'm not saying this is WW3 or the end of the world or something, just that Iran and its proxies have a *ton* of ways to cause oil prices to skyrocket. It's long been a pillar of their deterrence plan, and if the regime thinks they're in trouble there's little stopping them from doing so out of spite. >Iran has been disrupted and... nothing that bad happened. Iranian oil hasn't been disrupted at all, nor have they attempted to disrupt global oil... yet. My point is that this conflict and US involvement in it, raises the likelihood of that happening significantly. >Turns out lots of people have oil to sell and they scoop the market share seamlessly. You really shouldnt comment on things you clearly have zero understanding of. >We’re not even engaged with Iran and you’re already imagining 3 countries going offline. I'm not. Your response to my OP was talking about risk. My response therefore discussed the risks associated with the conflict, which includes possible disruptions to oil output from Saudi, Iran, and Iraq. My entire point is that the market does not appear to be factoring in the huge potential risks of a major conflict with Iran, so I pointed out some of those risks. I didn't say those things *will* happen, only that there's a growing risk they *might*. >For the blink of an eye. Then it rapidly returned to $60-70 Oil prices didn't return to the $70 range for over a year after the 2022 spike, and only entered the $60 range in late **2024**. Again, you clearly have no idea what you're talking about. >You can let yourself imagine a doomsday collapse of world economies without there being demand destruction. I never said anything about a "doomsday collapse of world economies" at all. I said there's a good chance that the price of oil skyrockets, which would be bad for the economy... >You imagine that Iran who is too overwhelmed to even handle Israel is somehow going to own us. Then you go further and throw Iraq and KSA in there. Where did I say anything about Iran "owning us"? Seriously, you're tilting at windmills here. What I said is that Iran and its proxies (which it doesnt have full control over mind you) have many ways of targeting Iraqi and Saudi oil output as well. We saw attacks by Iran/Houthis a few years ago on Saudi oil facilities for instance. The PMF in Iraq are a powerful force that could target Iraqi oil facilities as well. Again, the entire point of my posts isn't to suggest a nightmare scenario or something, just to point out the very real *risk* of high oil prices the conflict could bring about, and noting that I'm surprised that the market seems to be largely ignoring those risks.
> Its a global market, if there are major disruptions to one of the world's biggest producers Again, you’re spinning yourself into a doom spiral. Iran has been disrupted and... nothing that bad happened. Iran and others have restricted *themselves* and nothing that big really happened. Turns out lots of people have oil to sell and they scoop the market share seamlessly. > (or more, Iraqi and Saudi oil are both in striking distance of Iran and its proxies), See, this is what I mean with the spiral. We’re not even engaged with Iran and you’re already imagining 3 countries going offline. > it will send prices sky high in the US too. Keep in mind, the price of oil went to more than $150 a barrel 3 years ago after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For the blink of an eye. Then it rapidly returned to $60-70 > What does any of that have to do with what I'm saying? It doesnt have to be a Covid-level disruption of daily life for it to be disastrous for the economy and for corporate profits. You can’t have it both ways. You can let yourself imagine a doomsday collapse of world economies without there being demand destruction. > Who's saying anything about an "imagined doomsday weak economy"? You imagine that Iran who is too overwhelmed to even handle Israel is somehow going to own us. Then you go further and throw Iraq and KSA in there.
ABC had an update saying they were apparently reaching out to KSA, Qatar, etc. to call the US to open negotiations back up.
Keep in mind that China 🇨🇳 continued to cancel buy order for US Shale. So you can place puts on oil but not for long. We’ve been over supplied for months so 2.5million bpd is about to be removed from market. OPEC has a set release of additional crude in July - pre planned - but only by 350k bpd. So prices will just jump as value shifts into a smaller supply. Until then, KSA among others, can fill the gap in deliverables to China that will be lost in the strikes or closing of the Straits. It’s going to get even gnarlier for the oil markets if the trade talks between the 🇺🇸 and 🇨🇳go sideways. The USA has 22 billion in open bonds and China has sold off a considerable sum in recent times. But the get a ton of discounted petroleum from Iran and lot from Russia. Im short on Russian LNG in the Arctic because they are next.
Keep in mind that China 🇨🇳 continued to cancel buy order for US Shale. So you can place puts on oil but not for long. We’ve been over supplied and something has had to give...so 2.5million bpd is about to be removed from market. OPEC has a set release of additional crude in July but only by 350k bpd. So prices will just jump as value shifts into a smaller supply. Until then, KSA among others, can fill the gap in deliverables to China that will be lost in the strikes or closing of the Straits. It’s going to get even gnarlier for the oil markets if the trade talks between the 🇺🇸 and 🇨🇳go sideways. Im short on Russian LNG in the Arctic because they are next.
4/10. Small caps are for trades and not good during high rate cycles. They will be good coming out a recession. Why make it so complex? 10% AVDV seems high. I’d rather buy some global ETF’s. KSA, a German one, Mexico maybe, EUAD a good European defense. Add gold or silver. I have PAAS and AEM, but SIL or SIVR for less risk maybe for you. BTC is missing. And long term treasuries I don’t see the point.
Looking at Saudi ETF KSA with all the attn and investing going in and out of the Kingdom during this administration. Or opening up an account with IBKR and looking at specific companies to invest in in the Tadawul stock exchange. Also looking at silver, PAAS and some junior rare earth companies.
I’d ask you if you’ve ever been dropped in your head as a kid but this feels deeper. I’ll start with this, firstly this is UAE not KSA, but given the rest of your comment I’m not even surprised you can’t make the difference. Now second of all since you wanna go there the age of consent to marry in the UK just 150 years ago was 12 keep this in mind. In the bible Isaac was with Rebecca between the age of 12-14 in the bible - no numbers given just with the maths given from the bible, as for the Prophet and Aisha the marriage was consumed after she had hit puberty. My point is, today’s standards will always be different from what used to happen a very long time ago, 200 years ago if you’re 18 years old still living at home and jobless you would seem like a useless tool whereas today it’s normal in America and Canada Now don’t think to hard and go deeper about this and instead go enjoy the rest of your weekend
Leverage. He had significant properties in all 3 countries, especially KSA AND UAE.
Since you seem informed, where does KSA land on the depth chart?
Guess its not finalized yet? Otherwise why does KSA get the grandiose presentation?
It’s not a fact that they won’t buy all 210 or even the 160, but knowing Trump and the politics involved, current economic uncertainties, this number is very likely inflated. Same goes for KSA’s 600b investment in the US.
LOL, now tell me how much time you have spent in KSA.
lol the 4 year deal KSA signed is just their normal amount they spend on defense from the usa x4. what a scam lol
"the towers" yeah I remember KSA, I remember
You get both as an honored guest in KSA.
Breaking news: USA and KSA sign agreement to pump each other's stocks pyramid scheme style Bullish
That's Qatar. Different country, different interests than KSA.
See my prior comment. Canada and KSA also need to produce to meet their budgets. But for majors like Chevron and Exxon, selling below $55 is optional and they don’t want to lose money so they’ll just nope out. The short story is spending cuts and job cuts here at home.
This headline and some of the conjecture is only half true, or at least it’s technically true but about to get rocked. Yes, their current stated positions are to maintain production. But as the well regarded Paul Sankey explains, it’s only a matter of when they capitulate, because they will. Their stated positions are from when oil was at least $60, and $60 is kind of their fulcrum. This week’s drop to $55, and the predicted imminent sub-$50 pricing means major parties will absolutely scale back to avoid losing money. Smart operators like Diamondback already have. Desperate entities like Russia and Iran will not. Canada also has to produce. KSA is sort of in that camp too, as they basically produce whatever amount they need to meet the income expectations of their princes. And their current overproduction is fulfilling a favor to the current administration. Real companies have and will ignore slogans to “drill baby drill” but KSA does so happily. How this plays out then is the majors mentioned above do some painful layoffs across America, especially Texas and Midwest up to North Dakota. And that employment shock hurts sentiment which hurts economy which creates downward oil price. Players like Total have global markets so will be more insulated. I’m slowly accumulating in things like a CVX but under no illusion that it won’t go down before it goes up. I’m counting on them to maintain 6% yield while we wait.
It will turn away domestic investments in the US because it won't be profitable, the whole drill baby drill thing won't make money. Upside is cheaper gas for a short time and KSA is trying to push out Russia. Downside long run, our domestic investments.
highly unlikely for any real productive changes to existing trade relationships for both India and KSA. Saudi has been pivoting to China for a while now, dealing with Trump only when its convenient. India is still very non-aligned, especially for the current Pakistan tensions. They may leverage their position as a counterweight to China for US concessions, but Trump cant really claim a victory with "we're moving all manufacturing to India" as his slogan, but it is what India really needs. I doubt a forward MFN status would be enough
One simple reason: The only developed country on earth with relevant consumption is the US. It’s the greatest market on the face of the earth to sell a product. No other country can say that. The US is a consumer. It is also generally vastly more resource, energy, food, and militarily secure and politically stable than any other country you could possibly name. Despite what globalist propaganda outlets would have you believe. China is an export and manufacturing based economy locked in a trade war, amid a financial collapse and population free fall who will be forced to dump their products on the rest of the world. They are fully dependent on other countries (including and especially the US) for food, energy, and most natural resources, as well as for security of the trade routes they depend upon. Europes economy is irrelevant to anything since they don’t have a consumer base nor do they make very much of anything. Russia is locked out of the global economy. Where else are you gonna go? India? KSA? Mexico? Good luck with that.
We do align with “Bone Saw specialists” KSA where women until recently were not allowed to drive cars.
All his "success" has been through selling out his country to Russia, KSA and the Persian Gulf states
Have people not learned by now that when trump says something so outrageous that it seems cartoonish that he’s using it as a negotiating tactic, because the US has spent the last 75 years giving concession after concession to every country on earth that nobody takes us seriously anymore? “We’re just gonna take Gaza, we’ll just have it beautiful oceanfront!” Resulted in a new coalition of Muslim countries led by KSA to finally get off their asses and propose solutions and investment dollars to the solving crisis happening in their back yards. “We won’t protect you if you don’t pay your share” to NATO in his first term led to every single member increasing their defense spending. “We will retake the Panama Canal by force if we have to” has led to American companies with the help of the Panamanian government booting Chinese companies out of control of vital port infrastructure. Like do people really not get it yet? He wrote an entire fucking book about how he specifically negotiates deals.
> How will he fund the wealth fund? US has a $1.83T budget deficit which is expected to increase to $2T if the new tax bill, GOP proposed, becomes law as it is. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a proposal from this admin to sell California to KSA or something like that.
Trump will have something to say about Taiwan for sure. They're not sharing shit with USA/Intel, but have effectively given significant parts of TSMC's tech and secrets to SMIC. Well China took it against their will, but they failed to protect it, while they are putting in a lot of effort in keeping it away from America. America is the only reason they have any kind of independance. They have a skilled military and a conscript force with tons of patriotism and morale, but China is China. The commies can take Taiwan in a day if they wanted if not for USA. And Trump has a history of calling out allies who he thinks are taking advantage of America, eg getting KSA to pay billions for weapons, and trying to get Germany to stop paying Russia for gas. So he's coming for Taiwan for sure. Taiwan is not going to want to give up their silicon shield, but they'll have to give up something.
They didn't steal all the intellectual data. The majority was handed to them via joint ventures. It's only very recent that China allowed 100% foreign ownership of companies, previously you had to partner with a local company via a JV which allowed knowledge transfer, investment, etc. American / European manufacturers handed China the intellectual rights and as they learned, they eventually were able to compete against western companies. A similar approach is using in KSA / GCC in oil drilling, banking, insurance, etc.
Hey man I am also in KSA and was wondering this exact same question as I have been presented with the same offer. Please do let me know if you came up with an answer!
You literally don't know what you're talking about. They do have their 2nd mfg plant in KSA. Their first one is in Arizona. KSA ordered 100K cars so it made sense to build a plant there, and they have an EU/APAC market.
You're saying we can buy Israel or KSA if we got rid of Nvidia?
Do the people writing these articles have brains, or are they bots? They can't sell 9mmbbls/d of their finite resource at $100/bbl so they're going to sell 11mmbbls at $50/bbl instead? For market share? Why does the article even mention market share as if KSA cares, revenues are what matter. They should retitle this "Saudi Arabia plans to cut it's own revenues by 25% just for fun!" KSA production peaked at 11mmbbl/d in 2022 and are currently at 9mmbbl/d. They plan to slowly raise production to 10mmbbl/d over the next year based on OPEC growth projections, that is not "dumping onto the market". After trying (and failing) to liquidate US shale growth in 2014 they didn't make a new high in GDP PPP until 2021. I understand that oil investors of the past 10 years have major PTSD, and likely a closet full of brown stained pants, but I am highly doubtful KSA would try that again given that US shale growth has slowed considerably.
doesn't China produce more renewable energy than US? Also KSA has the largest oil reserves and pumps on standby, they keep production low to raise the prices.
Saudi Arabia is capitulating on its $100 target --> oil is going lower. Price war to kill US shale? Reality is OPEC was full of cheaters this whole time, so while KSA was cutting (causing deficits to blow up), it was effectively subsidizing US / Russia / Iran / non-compliant OPEC producers.
A journalist with family ties to the intelligence community who participated in Iran contra and IIRC meddled with internal KSA politics…not that anyone should get done up like that, but there was some fuckery afoot before it all went down and was part of the palace coup
You must be kidding, u realize KSA has a sliver of the population of those countries while having a larger GDP. Qatar and UAE are the closest beneficiaries but again can barely be considered super powers due to their low populations. But I'd argue their royal families are practically cousins with KSA's royal family.
They get the contract then the houthis sink their ships and KSA sues them for not cleaning up the oil.
>US ends ban on offensive arms sale to Riyadh wild how that happens only after KSA and Iran reestablish ties
'Cant' use jordanian or KSA airspace and thats a problem for them
The US basically exported the infrastructure we use here to the ME, considering almost all contractors/architects/planners that initially built those countries' infrastructure (UAE, KSA, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, etc.) were all US contractors (in 1950s/1960s). No wonder almost the entire middle east is a car dependent shithole just like the American suburbia.
Actually I'm remembering wrong. The S.A. vs. Houthi War was going on in 2015 but the series of strikes on KSA oil facilities was only in 2019, and then briefly in 2022. Question is, is oil more or less 'tight' than in 2019?
Graham, I have been and lived there. Do you know why you haven’t heard of all that? Because you form part of the privileged immigration (pretty sure you call yourself “expats”). Do you know who suffers the consequences the other redditor is talking about? The “browner” immigrants that you don’t see in your social circles. I know when you live in there it’s easier to convince yourself of how great it is (you get the same from “expats” living in KSA… ffs). But come on… using ANY of the gulf countries as an example of respect to human rights it’s so ridiculous that probably better to just laugh about it instead of thinking you truly believe it.
> Saudi Arabia, weirdly enough, is buying up US LNG. The US currently exports like 90 MPTA (rapidly growing), and KSA is committing to 5 MPTA for 20 years. Their plan is to import US LNG and then act as an intermediary and send it to whoever needs it. I imagine the Kingdom sees an arbitrage opportunity given that U.S. LNG is - for the couple of years anyway - cheap to produce. Currently the real margins lie in storage, transportation and distribution. Qatar is tied up in long-term contracts so the regional opportunities for the Sauds are scarce unless they want to strike up a deal with Kazakhstan.
Some random thoughts about energy (mostly LNG) today: - [This graph shows the growth in natural gas consumption by country](https://i.imgur.com/cZR1MKk.jpeg). The color indicates whether that country is a net exporter or importer. So it shows US consumption grew by 65 BCM but also that it is a net exporter. That growth in China is insane. What's remarkable to me, though, is that India is barely growing its natural gas consumption. Instead, they are heavily relying on increasing coal output. I'm assuming they are a few years out from repeating China type growth in natural gas, though. - [Another cool chart](https://i.imgur.com/taaRLgO.jpeg) showing that more natural gas trades as LNG over the ocean than in pipelines! The recent decline for pipeline trade is in part due to Russia-Europe pipeline flow either being intentionally choked off or sabotaged. - [Bloomberg estimates on fossil fuel demand by type](https://i.imgur.com/K3ycZlm.png). - [Saudi Arabia, weirdly enough, is buying up US LNG](https://x.com/SStapczynski/status/1805943704131412404). The US currently exports like 90 MPTA (rapidly growing), and KSA is committing to 5 MPTA for 20 years. Their plan is to import US LNG and then act as an intermediary and send it to whoever needs it. - [Lufthansa (effective today) introducing a 1 to 72 Euro surcharge](https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/1805587130577473925) on all flights. The reason is the EU is mandating a growing proportion of jet fuel to be 'sustainable' (SAF). This is imposing costs on airlines and forcing price increases. Lufthansa, like many airlines, is struggling with profitability, and so EU regulations are making business even tougher. A few other airlines are also adding surcharges, but not all of them. - Yet another [big weekly oil inventory build reported by the EIA](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Moves-Lower-on-Surprise-Inventory-Build.html) but for some reason crude oil is up 0.79%. Wonder what traders are thinking. Maybe fears over war expanding to Lebanon?
There is no real source for this. Everybody references a tweet from an unofficial BRICSNews account. There is also no source that this is even a 50 year agreement. It is the 50 year anniversary though, This news has been circling for over a week with no public statement from KSA or USA. They have always been able to transact in other currencies. They prefer the USD because of our liquid treasury market. They are also negotiating a military treaty with the USA similar to that of USA-Japan. If you can find a source (Statement from an official government website), I would love to see it. I have been searching for over an hour. What is also weird that that I have found: conflicting news sources on Saudi Arabia joining BRICS. They have attended meetings without formally joining. They were officially invited in January, but they said they were still considering accepting the application later that month.
There is no official source for this. I have been looking for the past hour. Everything references a tweet with no source or are blog posts with 0 sources. This has been circling for over a week. There is also no source for this "50 year agreement," I have been searching for that too. It has been 50 years since the creation of the Petrodollar, but there is no reference to a timeline. Some news pages are even saying 80 years or 70 years which is obviously false. Some are saying that KSA has always been able to transact in other currencies, they choose to transact with the USA because of how liquid our treasury market is. That is still currently unmatched by every other major economy. KSA and USA are currently in negotiations for a defense treaty similar to that of USA-Japan.
He paid nowhere close to 44 billion, there were billions from lovely people like Ellison and KSA, and also it was a leveraged buy-out, where Twitter took on a ton of debt.
you could have put puts on him back when MBS consolidated power at the Ritz in KSA.
50% tax rate 😯 ? I will keep living in KSA then 🏃🏻♂️
Remember stock is up because when you buy shares you get a president who will work for the shareholders. The more shares the more access. I bet Russia and KSA bought a shit load of stonk. Trump opened a new door to legal bribery. Soon every presidential candidate will list on the market.
So what are his options? 1. he's hosed. he can't get any money from TS because of the 6 mo. lock up. 2. he needs to post the bond by Monday; however, he shot himself in the foot by bragging on TS that he has $500m. If he doesn't offer up that money, Letitia James filed judgement against him and will begin seizing assets starting with Seven Springs. If he was bragging and doesn't have the $500m, bye bye assets. Oh, and he's hosed. 3. The rumor mill has circulated he might look towards Russia or KSA for the money. He'd need them to guarantee his bond ASAP or he's hosed wrt to his judgement; however, if he gets money from them, he's hosed politically because he'd be in hock to either an adversary or a frenemy. Either way he's hosed. 4. He could get himself, Melanie, Ivanka and Jared, Jr. and his Elvira impersonator, Ewik and tone deaf Lara to go out behind a Wendy's dumpster to \*ahem\* raise the funds, but they'd have to had started months ago. So looks like he's hosed. Op, assuming DWAC shareholders approve the merger, you know this company is overvalued and has what likely will be a shrinking user base. Never mind that they cannot keep the site up and running without major outages or the fact they have other DOJ/SEC-related worries. Only one way for TS to go should it ever make it out of the gate, so you know what to do.
If you think it’s likely that Russia/KSA/UAE will prop it FOR Trump you can assume it’s MORE LIKELY that the Dems will wreck this.
I agree that he wants to pull money out of this, but I tend to think the rug doesn't get pulled until after the election. Trump may sell his shares, but I'd suspect that Russia/KSA/UAE will prop the price up in order to funnel money to Trump. Alternatively, he might borrow against the shares, and those same actors would work to prop the price up.
Lol to who and for what? You think KSA and all the other goons backing him are ready to realize that haircut and lose control of the app?
FYI Aramco sold **1.5%** of it's stock The KSA still owns the other **98.5%**. It pays an annual **dividend** larger than the entire MC of AAPL.
Where the news?????? They opening a factory as they took Saudi money. They will build in the US, dismantle, ship to KSA, and reassemble.... You saying that not the future????
Much more than that you can track them more to Saudi policy going back to the 1934 end of the War between them and the KSA at Ta’if. That treat gave away four Yemeni states but had a 20 year sunset. It was resigned every year until being finalized in Jeddah in 2000. King Aziz told his sons to always keep Yemen week. The 4 states and the Houthis are Shia and KSA Sunni. The current war was really spurred more closely the the Arab Spring. You could have made that argument for AQAP, but it’s far more complex than just the US.
No, because that's not how diplomacy works. It's not tit for tat. The US and the myriad of coalitions we are working with can degrade these capabilities specifically much more quickly than their ability to defend against and reach out into KSA and UAE. GCC states are holding us back. There is a tipping point where we will no longer put such weight on those factors. The US will change the profile of strikes in Iraq and Syria and more openly target the IRGC proxies. Hezbollah isn't being used at scale because Iran can't afford to lose them. There are a lot of pain points. Houthis really aren't a huge part of that over all plan. Also, if you fall into the proxy trap, you will forget that the Houthis have their own grievances and a sense of self-preservation. Take my words for what you will; I just think a lot of people are way off base here.
Absolutely KSA is the next China of Middle East. Huge country, lots of oil, well Educated young population...I have noticed lots of project and running side by side 2030 vision is for REAL.
The US already put together a task force. KSA didn't join, they've had enough of getting their asses handed to the by the Houthis and don't want them to target their oil infrastructure in retaliation.
Nah, KSA has consisently failing to meet quota for years. There's just more production elsewhere and once you hit 2.55 Shale is profitable.
The part I'm nervous about is the KSA involvement. It means the normal rules of road/laws/laws of physics etc won't apply here.
could KSA saudi arabia ETF be a good buy?
Jordan: They got fucked by PLO, and is not touching Palestine with a 5 foot pole. Egypt: Good relation with Israel. Not intervening. Turkey: Excellent relation with Israel. Israel even supported Azerbaijan in the Nagorno Karabakh war. Yemen: In the middle of a civil war. They don't have an army. KSA: Incompetent army. Their defense is dependent on USA. No way they are risking that. Oman: ???? Russia: They are getting ass handed China: They are watching Russia getting pounded very carefully Tldr, take your schizo pills.
Yes, unfortunately the SPUS ETF actually has a fairly low dividend rate. Trying to retire off 1% dividends would require an awful lot of savings. I'm somewhat surprised no one has devised an ETF that concentrates on stocks that are both halal and high dividend. If you are going to pick individual stocks, it would be good to diversify across as many companies and sectors as you can. Classically, there are 11 sectors: Health care, Materials, Energy, Consumer discretionary, Consumer staples, Industrials, Utilities, Financials, Information technology, Communication services and Real estate. There are a few sectors where it may be difficult to find halal companies (financial: interest oriented, real estate: often highly leveraged) but it would be less risky than just 3 companies which are stable companies but all in the consumer staples sector. You could also diversify a bit internationally by putting some money into a country based ETF for an Islamic country like KSA for Saudi Arabia. It pays 2.4% dividends and the banks it holds are presumably halal?
With all the barbarity we've witnessed over the last few days, we tend to forget that more than Hamas, Hezbollah or even Iran, Qatar is the single most dangerous country in the middle east. They are small but punch way above their weight thanks to their wealth and a belief that the US will never antagonize them because they are needed as a counter to KSA and UAE. Qatar, however, has been in the thick of ME politics, and it is no surprise that everyone from Al Qaeda to Taliban and Hamas have found friends and real estate in Doha. The unimaginable atrocities we've witnessed in Israel were most likely planned in Doha than Tehran considering Hamas' leadership lives there under the protection of Qatari establishment. Fuck these guys and their gas!
This could also increase tension in shipping if Iran and KSA start messing with each other in the gulf and straight. If the Sunni/wahabi factions side closer to Israel and against Shia Iran and Hamas, that could really kick a hornets nest in the ME. Israel is likely to use a fuck ton of weapons and ammunition in this war so MIC spending could go up globally.
Doing something is better than doing nothing. Governments are powerful, or at least they used to be. You can use laws and prosecutions of select offenders and I guarantee that will chill out the majority. You can soft nationalize things. It's somewhat crazy for example that our DoD is dependent on a megalomaniac with a private company who routinely meets with murderous foreign dictators for fun. Past governments would have turned Starlink into a very controlled situation in the flick of a lamb's tail. And besides law/crime, you can apply all kinds of massive carrots and sticks. Oil barons are colluding with KSA to keep oil supply artificially tight. Government could say produce now or lose licenses leases and leeway. Similar with housing. Imagine if the creative energy that goes into producing some micro transaction video game were applied to smarter rapid construction housing? We built more housing in a month post WWII than we do in a year now, and that's after 75 years of advancement. A committed effort to massively increase low cost housing could be the mother of all stimulus programs that also *lowers* one of the biggest drivers of inflation. We could be using carrots to do efficient building construction and design, like all the other smarter civilized nations do. There's a universe of attack vectors besides just sitting back and letting the blind mole rats in the fed just jack rates and not understand why that has done nothing constructive and will continue to do nothing constructive.
Iraq happened partially because of the naive and incorrect belief that one can just invade a country and install a new government and somehow it will make the region more stable. US did have and still does have strategic interests in the Middle East and oil exposure is a risk for the US economy. "Stealing the oil from Iraq" doesn't explain it, but on the other hand, US never would have gotten involved if they were fully energy independent at the time. And probably KSA would not be aligned with the US at all if it were not for their oil supply.
Nothing happens in KSA without massive money being thrown at it. If Tesla did this, the factory would be approximately free.
It’s getting harder to call as pressure is going to start coming down on KSA from the US. The rig count was collapsing which means that US supply isn’t going to come to the rescue very soon, but it looks like it’s flattening out and if it resurges the market could start factoring it in. Was no one else listening when KSA was mocking short sellers? That was the real time to buy. But to your end state likely question - the profit margins of current pricing means variable dividends will pay out well so it’s a pretty nice space to be still imo.
The obvious time was when KSA was threatening short sellers and the rig count was collapsing. But I still think it’s a great place to be. Rig count hasn’t turned around yet, and outside of this weeks report, storage levels were collapsing. The variable dividends will likely be high if the price simply holds current levels, so from an ownership perspective you would have some nice projected future receipt of payment.
That was so mid-late 2010s The game has changed since we cant draft a president with competent foreign policy chops. They're playing ball now with Iran and China. The Turkey, KSA regional war never happened. Looks like Iran wants to court them both.
I made a ton of money in the oil trade. I rode XOM from $35 to $99, OXY from $23 to $49, XLE from $30 to $57, and still hold a little bit of SHEL from $25. I bought all of these shares/calls in summer/fall 2020 through spring/summer 2021 and rode it until about fall 2022. What I am saying is that in 2020 and 2021, every single central bank, all producers, and generally everyone was working to stimulate consumer demand. Since last summer, the exact inverse is occurring. The only player who is trying to push oil prices up is Saudi Arabia. Every single other country and market participant is working against that. As I said, I was absolutely certain that KSA was going to maintain their cuts in 2021, but they did not and surprised the entire world by unwinding them considerably earlier than anticipated. Saudi Arabia understands the oil market better than probably anyone, and the idea that they will let prices go up without stopping is foolish. Demand destruction is worse for them than almost any circumstance. At about $90/barrel, that’s what happens. Again, oil is an indirect segment of core inflation. Further, goods prices are dropping fast, and they are well back in the range of 2% inflation. The input costs driven by oil and transport are not the biggest needle movers. They are a contributor, but it is not as though every single product is 100% oil. Heck, airline tickets are probably one of the most oil-sensitive goods/services around and those are actually less expensive right now than they were pre-COVID. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SETG01 The reason I am continuing to harp on shelter is because it is the largest individual segment of CPI and PCE. No other specific item contributes more to inflation than shelter. It operates with an extraordinarily long lag and the higher frequency measures of that inflation component have been dropping for about a year now. We should start to see those drops reflected in the official data going forward. Not to put too fine a point on it, but BLS said it themselves in the most recent two CPI press releases. Shelter was 70% and 90% of the monthly increase in the overall index respectively. You can tell what will happen to the M/M figures as that begins its descent. Core services ex shelter is also moderating to the pre-COVID growth rate, that is the other thing the Fed is watching carefully. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SASL2RS If you are so sure of inflation coming back heavy, then you should be short IEF or SHY. There is considerable money to be made if you’re right about the path of interest rates. Personally, I would not be betting that Saudi Arabia will keep up their dicking with the oil market.
The most drilling rigs in operation in the US in history happened under Obama. US producers got deeply in debt drilling while KSA destroyed oil prices. Every barrel they produced cost them money. COVID gave them perfect cover to reset and fuck us all. Joe Biden could grant XOM a lease for your front yard and they wouldn’t develop it because they like selling barrels at $85 instead of $60. However, the discipline is not likely to last, nor is Saudi Arabia going to shoot themselves in the foot by trickling oil out.
Last time a country tried this, we went into Iraq. KSA is being quite unloyal lately.
Fuck the KSA. They’re doing all shit to buy Mbappe
Market rents going down is going to put more pressure on real estate valuations. You are assuming there is going to be an even swap: oil for housing and services, and I think you’re mistaken. If nothing else, energy is excluded from core as it is known to be volatile anyway. Obviously energy prices contribute to inputs everywhere, but the Fed is going to ignore those big swings and any headline inflation gyrations which come along with it. PSU’s ACY inflation index has housing sharply negative as of June 2023, and their modified core CPI and PCE indices are already in the Fed’s target range. ApartmentList is forecasting deflation, not just disinflation, in housing by year end, and CoreLogic has the swan dive of shelter inflation continuing on its downward trajectory as of May (their most recent release). Personally, I don’t see oil being nearly as much of a factor, particularly given that the reason for the current price spike is KSA unilaterally cutting supply. Chinese demand is getting hit from all sides, so the Saudis are attempting to artificially shore up prices. If oil demand was as high as it was in 2021, I’d be more nervous.
And XLE is up 12%. Meanwhile, JPM is up 14%. The last time KSA did their unilateral cuts, crude ramped 20% in less than a month. However, they also surprised markets that March by unwinding their cuts, I remember because I lost money on my OXY calls at that time. The oil trade was when oil prices went negative and every central bank in the world was trying to stimulate demand. You do realize what happens when oil gets expensive, right? Inflation pressures increase. The more expensive oil gets, the more tightening that is going to continue to happen. Saudis are smart. They aren’t going to let oil get too expensive because their entire security apparatus depends on the US government selling them guns so they can keep their neighbors at bay. Fleecing the US consumer will draw the ire of the State Department, who is also working to bring Iranian barrels back to market. Now that Israel looks to be going authoritarian, why would the US care if Iran has nukes? Soon, the balance of interests will shift away from being a good partner and ally to desiring cheaper oil.
Long term holds KSA & TSM
So KSA cuts oil exports by about ~1M (out of ~10.6M - ~3.6M = ~7M export barrels per day). Destroy ~14.3% of revenue (plus market share), to push up prices by ~2%. How do they not when tard of the year on this idea?
Yep, there is a glut of supply coming from Russia + Iran + partly Venezuela that is keeping markets oversupplied in the short-term. Iran for example has been storing a lot of oil (as of 2022, some 50M to 100M barrels) that is able to release despite sanctions. The WSJ reports on diplomatic tensions between KSA and Iran over this, although people on oil Twitter (who like to portray things as Saudi Arabia + Russia versus the US for their political reasons) claim the WSJ is lying. It makes sense though: Saudi Arabia is cutting off its oil sales *and* prices are falling, basically subsidizing Russian / US production which are unconstrained. [Yet US production is falling anyway] Check out my [comment from yesterday](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/13upxy7/rstocks_daily_discussion_monday_may_29_2023/jm54q53/) about US production. /u/Tfarecnim
Lived there for a year…those inbred Saudis are racist against anything none KSA…
Good evening /r/stocks. Today I would like to provide some data points and headlines about the oil market. Skip to the end for the TL;DR on why you should ignore ALL Of this and sell: ## US Shale - [Bloomberg:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-19/oil-drilling-plunges-the-most-in-two-years-as-shale-producers-retreat?srnd=markets-vp) "Oil drilling is collapsing in the US as producers rein in output, mirroring a recent plunge in rigs searching for natural gas. Rigs targeting crude declined by 11 to 575 this week, according to data released Friday by Baker Hughes Co. It’s the biggest weekly drop since September 2021. The pullback was led by the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, the most prolific US shale play, where four rigs were dropped." [Visual](https://i.imgur.com/RgS9xH4.png). - Key driver of US production seeing productivity fall: "Lea + Eddy county, responsible for 50% of Permian's production increase over the last 2 years, look to be suffering from an almost comedic well productivity degradation!" [Source](https://twitter.com/WhiteTundraSG/status/1659333130569015297). ## OPEC - [Visual: OPEC exports falling](https://i.imgur.com/GVLjdaJ.png) - Saudi Arabia needs higher prices: "The International Monetary Fund expects Saudi Arabia won’t balance its budget if oil is below $80 a barrel, a revision that means the kingdom will move back into fiscal deficit after its first surplus in almost a decade." This is 'up by more than a fifth from what it had forecast in October.' Here's a [table of break-even prices by OPEC country](https://i.imgur.com/AammJke.png). "The assessment aligns with the view of Bloomberg Economics, which estimates Saudi Arabia needs an oil price above $80 and perhaps closer to $100 to meet all spending commitments and ensure the stability of the social contract between the government and the citizens." [Source](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-03/saudi-arabia-needs-pricier-oil-to-balance-its-budget-imf-says). - From [Tweet](https://twitter.com/WhiteTundraSG/status/1656016484513255429), here is a visual of [cargo loaded from OPEC+ ex-Russia](https://i.imgur.com/QJuLV7T.png), and you can see recent declining numbers. Why is this important? As [another thread](https://twitter.com/econ_713/status/1657883709238829057) from a different author points out, "The physical oil mkt is slow-moving. A tanker loaded in KSA [Saudi Arabia] will take ~44 days to reach the Houston Ship Channel. Thus, cuts that ‘start’ on May 1st will not impact data until mid-June. This leads inexperienced pundits to prematurely pronounce that the cuts ‘aren’t working’ or won’t matter. These are amateur takes, & the key data to be watching [right now] is *loadings.* And these data confirm that the cuts are real & will print mid-June. " - A long [comment from October 2022](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/y8thxi/rstocks_daily_discussion_options_trading_thursday/it3rjpm/) on OPEC spare capacity. ## Financial Markets and Sentiment - Visual from [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-20/hedge-funds-ultra-bearish-oil-bets-signal-us-recession-angst?srnd=markets-vp): Paper markets [extremely bearish](https://i.imgur.com/cXgJBvC.png). Why does this matter? If prices start to rise, "any large gains in oil prices could unleash as much as $40 billion worth of buying in US crude and Brent alone from trend-following commodity trading advisers" and shorts turn long. - [Visual from Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/articles/energy-oil-gas-stock-picks-roundtable-f0171204?mod=hp_HERO): Energy sector with [historically small](https://i.imgur.com/zyVDTYh.png) share of S&P 500. ## Global Demand - [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-20/hedge-funds-ultra-bearish-oil-bets-signal-us-recession-angst?srnd=markets-vp) on refining demand + inventories: "Refineries are processing the most crude for this time of year since the pandemic began. Air travel is rising just about everywhere, and gasoline demand in the US is now at the highest level since December 2021. At the same time, fuel inventories are below seasonal norms for gasoline and diesel in the US, and OPEC+ cuts and Canadian wildfires have limited crude supply." - IEA raising forecasts via [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/iea-says-oil-price-downturn-ignores-looming-supply-crunch-2023-05-16/): "Prices were pressured lower by muted industrial activity and higher interest rates, which, combined have led to recessionary scenarios gaining traction," the Paris-based agency said in its monthly oil report. "The current market pessimism, however, stands in stark contrast to the tighter market balances we anticipate in the second half of the year, when demand is expected to eclipse supply by almost 2 million barrels per day (bpd)." The IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand by 200,000 bpd to 102 million bpd, noting that China's recovery after the lifting of COVID-19 curbs had surpassed expectations with demand reaching a record 16 million bpd in March." By the way they hold this view *despite* also thinking diesel demand contracts. - [Visual of IEA's supply/demand forecast](https://i.imgur.com/8ti8IIg.png). Sharp tightening of markets anticipated in H2 2023. Here is a more [recent update](https://i.imgur.com/h3BWVSi.png) that shows entering supply deficit in this very quarter! - Visuals: [International commercial flights](https://i.imgur.com/cqZEe4S.png) and [US air travel](https://i.imgur.com/witexEj.png) from [Twitter](https://twitter.com/WhiteTundraSG/status/1659747215974481920) - [Chinese crude imports](https://i.imgur.com/layZBdp.png) from [Tweet](https://twitter.com/WhiteTundraSG/status/1656016492251742209) ## My Past Claims and Data w/ Reading Recommendations - By the way, I'm not a oil permabull. Here is [me in September 2022](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/x762ow/rstocks_daily_discussion_technicals_tuesday_sep/ind1cfn/) warning that the gloom over European natural gas [s extremely overdone. Indeed, prices have [tanked](https://www.ft.com/content/ba8f7a30-954b-4620-b8f1-40de771e77fb), with "European natural gas prices fell back into their normal trading range for the first time since the start of the energy crisis on Thursday, falling below €30 per megawatt hour to reach the lowest level since June 2021. The price of benchmark TTF fell as low as €29.75/mwh, down more than 8 per cent on the day, to levels last seen before Russia started squeezing Europe’s pipeline gas supplies ahead of its invasion of Ukraine." Just [look at this chart](https://i.imgur.com/DsGSL4T.png) from [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-18/europe-gas-futures-fall-below-30-for-first-time-since-june-2021#xj4y7vzkg). - Me in November pushing back against [imminent skyrocketing of energy prices](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/ynb88z/winter_is_comingenergy/iv8ffwc/) - [Me in late December](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/zwmp18/putin_bans_sale_of_russian_oil_to_the_west/j1wvci8/) arguing that the threat that Russia can sabotage oil markets and send them to new highs is gone. - [Me in July 2022](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/wa0lut/blackrock_energy_crisis_hits_europe_stay_away/ihydv8w/) arguing that European stocks are very cheap and (by extension) suggesting not to sell out of or avoid Europe. And this was when energy prices were through the roof. The Europe ETF $VGK is up 14% since then, the German $DAX and FTSE 100 would hit all time highs. Japan too, recently. - But I am generally bullish for the long term, as [argued in this October comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/ygqxb1/5y_perspective_on_global_markets/iuapp8i/). - Am I positioned for this thesis? [You bet](https://i.imgur.com/eXM1HkW.png). - [A set of 20 bullet points](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/wgqxn0/rstocks_daily_discussion_fundamentals_friday_aug/ij3081u/) with various bull/bear cases for oil. In general I got wrong how much crude would fall, but the one claim I was consistently right on is that natural gas markets would tank. Both Henry Hub (US) and TTF (Europe). And tank they did. - My start of year predictions [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/zzwrcp/rstocks_2022_roundup_looking_ahead_at_2023/j2gvesp/) on the broader market. I say oil falls to low $70 and stays range bound $80-90, and no stratospheric jumps. We shall see if I get that part right. Check out all the wrong tech calls I made though. - Would you like a list of reading recommendations? [I made a compilation here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/11gp31l/energy_sector_stocksetfs/japrjd3/). But I have news for my portfolio and the energy bulls. [This week's front cover of Barron's](https://i.imgur.com/FhX0um7.png). If you actually took the time to read even >50% of this enormous comment, let me know by upvoting/downvoting/commenting or whatever so I feel *someone* got something out of it and I'll make more in the future.
they need to bc opec got mad and cut. It takes 44 days on average for a tanker to go from KSA to texas. So just a few weeks from here till we see the cuts starting May to have effect
> If the price of oil is allowed to trade freely, its going up. Period. If the price of oil goes up, inflation goes up. Interesting usage of the word "free". You mean if oil states can manipulate markets freely? Like OPEC already does? They charge as much as they can, and have for some time. The dollar isn't doing anything. The Middle East getting peaceful is bad for oil. KSA has been sabotaging the middle east for decades to keep other countries having lower production so they don't need to cut as much to keep prices high.
The components of XEQT are : XEF ITOT XIC and IEMG (Emerging Markets, or a cover for mainly Chinese stocks) so you could buy XEF ITOT and XIC seperate from IEMG, which would cut all or most of the Chinese exposer and if you want other 'emerging markets' do your research into what countries you want to be exposed to and the similar or other risks that come with that there are other country specific etfs like EGPT KSA EIS UAE EIDO. but I'm almost completely in US equities because I trade and don't want to be confused with foreign tax complication.
One of many articles talking about Iran and Pakistans deteriorating relationship https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.trtworld.com/magazine/why-pakistan-is-coming-down-hard-on-iran-55499/amp The deal they're making with KSA that is being overseen by China proves that Iran was providing covert arms to Houthis https://www.wsj.com/articles/iran-agrees-to-stop-arming-houthis-in-yemen-as-part-of-pact-with-saudi-arabia-6413dbc1 UN report says the same thing lol https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/1/9/iran-likely-smuggling-weapons-to-yemen-confidential-report
It's well known that Iran provides their arms. Even the drones used to attack UAE / KSA are Irani origin. The houthis did not create arms overnight. They were supplied by Iran. Iran continues to be a problem because they help ignite Sunni Shia problems. This is why Pakistan even avoids deals with Iran. It has little to do with US blockade and alot more to do with issues Iran causes on the Balochistan border. It's why Pak sealed their border with Iran and Afghanistan to prevent terrorism into the country. Since they did that, terrorism has fallen dramatically.
I'm not pro Israel and yet I can comment about how I hate Israel all over Twitter. Try saying that you're pro Israel or pro Saudi in Iran. Watch how u get hanged The war in Yemen is between Iran and Saudi. Houthis are Irani backed and KSA backs the previous govt. The blame of that war falls on Iran and Saudi and always had. No one forced either side to attack Yemen. You both decided you hated each other because or religious divisions and decided to fight a proxy war. Iran and Saudi weapons and indirect attacks in Yemen have killed far more than 80,000 children
The Israel lobby will absolutely demand that any US president to honor security agreements with the KSA while it acts nice with Israel. This agreement has been in place for decades. It's political suicide in US politics to deviate from this path.
Banning US energy contractors from operating with Saudi clients (we have a lot of professionals involved in Middle East oil production), cutting off access to NATO weapons, turning a blind eye to any action Iran takes against KSA, alter the naval protection agreements in the Persian Gulf, making Saudi investments restructure ownership in US companies, etc. Most of it would be akin to violence but in that sticky “we didn’t actually do anything” kind of way. KSA has been given a huge global pass, due to their place in the oil industry but also because of how deep the US has supported them, that allows international businesses and governments to treat them as mostly untouchable. Any cracks in that arrangement makes very big problems for that house of cards. They have two major cards; their ability to affect the global oil market, and that unspoken little problem that they have the means to kick up another round of sectarian terrorism…and the last 20 years is a good example of why that’s a big card, but imagine how much the US military-industrial-intelligence complex would enjoy that.