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MTSR calls might glow back to life on Monday.. please bless 🙏
Exactly, I agree on all points. I do think NVO will eventually acquire VKTX, or at least try. I mean, they tried with MTSR for a reason: their CEO understands NVO needs M&A to remain competitive. They could go the cheap way with GPCR/SMMT and not become competitive with LLY, or they could pay a higher premium in VKTX and have the possibility of becoming #1, surpassing LLY. As you said, the maintenance possibility with a placebo-like tolerability profile and great efficacy is basically unheard of. VKTX really has its hands on a great drug.
Depressing because you didn't do enough research. There's a reason why LLY is up so much and why NVO is down so much. LLY with its tirzepatide is eating NVO's lunch. Crazy growth, we're talking 80%+ growth YoY, meanwhile, semaglutide's growth is in the low single digits to flat. Wayyy better efficacy, wayy better tolerability. The only reason why someone would be on semaglutide would be that it's cheaper. Add to that the fact that competition is coming extremely fast (VKTX with its VK2735 that will dominate on both subq and oral [only dual GLP-GIP oral = better efficacy than orforglipron & oral semaglutide and better tolerability]). NVO's only long term hope at this point is quality M&A. If they can do quality M&A (the only one that would be worth it to acquire would be VKTX imo), then they may get back to the top place on the podium. But if they don't do quality M&A, then.... I wouldn't want to be a NVO shareholder in that case. They already lost their MTSR deal recently to Pfizer (which is good actually because they still wouldn't have become competitive, the only one worth it is, again, VKTX). With pharma/biotech stocks, you can't invest based on technicals or based on the fact that it's down. It's not like other sectors where there can be quick rebounds after a dip. You always have to do deep research before buying pharma stocks.
There's also countless other, better healthcare companies than a company that has done horridly over both the short and long-term that has a lousy track record with M&A including about 5.4B on GBT (whose drug was eventually pulled) and getting bid up by NVO recently for MTSR. PFE on here feels like it's the healthcare name so many people go with simply because it's the healthcare name they've heard of. It's like O and REITs - if someone mentions a REIT on here there's about a 90% chance it's that - people just going with what they read everyone else owns.
MSTR's leverage isn't that bad. They are about 1.2-1.4x leveraged. Not that bad. mNAV is sitting at 1.12 with BTC at 85k. They can still afford some downside. Now, is the debt and dividends an issue? Yes, but not right now, and not for a few years to come. 2028 is when their debt starts coming due, and will snowball into the 2030's. But, that debt is cheap. Their convertible notes, issued in 2024, that mature in 2029 and 2030, have interest rates lower than 1%. More recent issuances that mature in 2031 and 2032 have slightly higher rates, but they are still really low, .875% and 2.25%. Low. MTSR is fine until 2030, they can tank sideways movement just fine. They have the reserves to cover dividends, even if BTC stays flat. Specifically, they have enough cash on hand to pay dividends until right around the next halving. It's perfect. The next halving will happen mid 2028. This will also coincide with a general election. Both events, historically, will lead to a rally. That is the bet, and they've timed it accordingly. If MSTR has made the right bet, that BTC will rally towards decade end after the next halving, they are perfectly positioned for that. Now, if they get it wrong, yeah... things will unravel quickly. MSTR has positioned themselves to win this bet, and quite well. As for your ETF argument, yeah I'm not sure about that.
NVO is old news. The new thing is dual agent GLP GIP (NVO is single GLP) such as tirzepatide from LLY. Better efficacy, better tolerability, a lot less side effects like nausea/vomiting. LLY is actually not up that much. They have crazy growth with tirzepatide (especially if you compare it to NVO's semaglutide, which is in the low single digits) and are price very, very, very conservatively. Lots of room to grow. NVO is riskier because as I said they don't have a dual GLP GIP and their internal pipeline is not great. Which is why they tried (and failed) to acquire MTSR recently. They will try again with VKTX imo, if they do get it, they may be able to compete with LLY => NVO may grow 500%+ in the next 5 years, easily.
Guggenheim raised the firm’s target on Pfizer ([PFE](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pfe)) to $35 from $33 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Pfizer’s acquisition of Metsera (MTSR) is “a wise strategic move” to gain traction in the rapidly growing obesity market following recent setbacks with the company’s internal oral GLP-1 programs, the analyst tells investors. Based on 15 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Pfizer in the last 3 months - the average price target is $29.23 with a high forecast of $35.00 and a low forecast of $24.00. The average price target represents a 13.65% change from the last price of $25.72. Just my take, but I would hang in there for a bit longer (although I understand why you want to sell it). Right now, most of the health care sector is out of favor. I recently bought CI, which had an outstanding quarter the end of last month, but dropped over $60 a share from around the $310 level . . . I immediately bought a 1000 shares at a $250 cost basis. Fast forward today, it is up to $278. A bargain in my mind. Similarly, the same thing has happened to 2 other health stocks Elevance and Humana. My point is that the sector was severely effected by the Administration's attitude toward health care in general, and "Obamacare" specifically. I think things are looking better for this sector. I am curious, what attracted you to Pfizer it in the first place? Regardless, good luck on whatever you decide.
No hurry to sell, but prospects are not great. Their MTSR deal was a blunder and they will not enter the obesity market for years (assuming that pipeline is even viable, which it doesn't necessarily seem like it is). Their Seagen acquisition has also not borne much fruit. Not too bullish long-term.
With all that said, I agree that NVO is undervalued right now. Attractive price imo. Most important thing is we now know they want to do M&A with at least 10B firepower (from MTSR offer). New CEO is very aggressive, I like it. My thesis is still very bullish on NVO if they can get the deal done with VKTX. They very likely tried and offered at least 150% MTSR's offer (~15B), not enough to close it. If they can get it done, NVO will 5x over the next 5 yrs. Otherwise, it will probably still rise but not as steeply.
The main appeal of buying MSTR instead of BTC is because of their use of debt instruments to buy BTC at a rate that most cannot. This is measured in the KPI of BTC per share, the portion of MSTR BTC holdings that a share. You can buy a share of MTSR once and then Strategy works to increase your underlying amount of BTC your share represents, increasing your share price. However, you pay a premium to the BPS. Strategy's premium to the BPS is justified by their rapid acquisition of BTC, at around 26.1% increase this year, is funded by the preferred stocks. Here they sell the preferreds of around 10% USD yield, which is payed indefinitely. This allows them to immediately buy BTC and gain from BTC typically increasing at a higher rate then the dividend payments. You are right that most of the preferreds are down right now, but their largest product, STRC, is engineered to stay at the fixed par value of $100, with the dividend being variable to keep it at that price. So if someone like you is worried about price retention, that is what STRC is for, and yields higher than many other products. MSTR is a levered play on BTC, its been down rn bc BTC hasn't been doing hot. It's underlying fundamentals haven't changed, and if you believe in BTC appreciating faster than USD, then you would inact a similar strategy of aggressive acquisition. I don't have the means to justify the risk of such acquisition, so I pay a premium to the BPS.
Dont you think MTSR is acquired purely because it was cheaper than VKTX (VKTX being expensive bcz they are ahead in drug development)?
VKTX is just a slightly longer half life tirzepatide. Retail investors love it, the buyside not so much. We don't think it's materially differentiated from tirzepatide. And you need differentiation to stand out in the obesity race. That's why MTSR got bought out. Also Lian imo is not a good CEO. IOVA is imho junk. Margins are terrible. Improving but a long way to go. The bulls hope it will see approval in NSCLC use after immunotherapy and chemo off open-label data. I think that's an absurd premise and even if it were to happen, you would still struggle to find payers to cover it. And even if that barrier were to fall, you still have a company burning tons of cash with terrible margins. Also REPL has their competing therapy in Melanoma on April 2026 that could put further pressure.
I fat fingered MSTR --> MTSR Almost cried thinking microstrategy was $70 and I missed the opportunity
retail got cucked by both $MSTR and $MTSR 😭😭🙏🙏
MTSR coming out with an obesity drug that just past phase 2 🚀🚀🚀🚀 calls on MTSR
I just bought an MTSR strangle position. Check it out, gonna be easy $$$, bought $65 puts and $75calls for May 2026. MTSR moves ten bucks either way in the next 7 months and easy tendees
So fr someone please explain if I should sell my MTSR 3/26 90 call since they got bought by Pfizer
It's not official, but it is an educated guess based on the fact that NVO aggressively bid on MTSR (which has an inferior pipeline compared to VKTX).
If you did last Monday on MTSR $80 calls , by Friday it would have been a reality.
Either way I'm not out any money. I could sell right now for profit. Lol. And if I'm wrong so what. It's a gamble. Hoping for a bidding war cause of all the IPs and studio value netflix and others will be wanting for their future projects. Plus DC, Looney tunes, Harry potter, etc. How much you think the studios and IPs alone are worth. They are looking to maximize shareholder value. And if we get a bidding war we will see an MTSR situation till one folds . You do you bro. Don't sorry about my money. Go buy some 0DTEs or some dumb shit.
I accidentally bought MTSR instead of MSTR and made money!
Honestly that wasn't a bad move. NVO's bidding war was very unexpected and kinda out of nowhere. Makes me think they offered a large amount to VKTX (15-20B?) who said no, and then they panicked and made a bid on MTSR.
Yes, exactly. If an inferior actor (MTSR) can get acquired for ~10.5B, then VKTX's price would be closer to 25-40B. VKTX received offers from probably everyone, but they were all too low. The CEO wants at least 30B imo.
The latest offer was approved by MTSR an hour ago, $89.25/share. This is why I am saying MTSR will not move more. MTSR's afterhours share price is $89
The agreement is amended already, there will be no additional share price movement on MTSR. The play could be NVO leaps and VKTX leaps.
NVO just lost the MTSR deal. NVO needs another obesity asset to remain competitive vs. LLY. The only options left are GPCR (WL not competitive, same for tolerability) and VKTX. NVO already tried to acquire VKTX but didn't offer enough. Then, they turned around and tried to acquire MTSR (way lower cost vs VKTX) and were not successful. They will bid on VKTX soon, again, probably something like 18B which is a lowball. They will need to, as their CEO said this week, "dig deep in their pockets" for an appropriate 30B offer. Then, they may get back their #1 spot on the leaderboard and get ahead of LLY. If this scenario happens, my expectations are as follows: VKTX +600% by 2026 NVO +400% (share price of $225) by 2030.
https://preview.redd.it/7i79t8v5uxzf1.png?width=864&format=png&auto=webp&s=8cb5023962092fad1d6f00b966956cb96cd2d070 Sold this and moved them out to June and bought more. So how will I lose money. Did you see the bidding war this week for MTSR between NVO and PFE?. MTSR price soared. The $80 dollar calls were $0.01 Monday at open ,ended the week worth $5.45. if I'm missing something please tell me and I'll adjust my position or sell.
If you would have told me to buy MTSR $80 calls for a $1 and they would print buy Friday I would have called you crazy. But this is the market we ride in .
I Bought some put for NVO not because the guy that fainted in front of mango man but because I dreamt Pfizer will win the bid on the drug for fat ass people. Also bought calls for MTSR because either bidder win it will win anyways. I’m I retarded enough?
Shoulda got MTSR instead of MSTR
Hey guys, a little green to brighten the red day. Bought a 70 MTSR 2/26 call on 9/22 for $20 bucks. It’s now sitting at $1250 for an astounding 6150% gain
MTSR is still booming. Wish I didnt sell my 65 calls I have a feeling it will hit 100 soon.
Lol saw MTSR green and got confused
Snagged a MTSR 20 call 2/26 for a whopping $20, it now sits at $450 lololol
MTSR develops obesity products like VKTX.
I didn't see any of that. Again, not the person to ask. How does MTSR relate to the other one?
Thanks. I am curious because the stock has been rising with buyout rumor with Pfizer and Novo are trying to bid for MTSR.
I full ported MTSR thinking it was MSTR feels good
MTSR mooning on news that record number of people bought last quarter thinking they were buying MSTR
Yes because this is the reason why NVO is down so much and why their Board was ousted. Semaglutide is not competitive and its growth is negative, meanwhile tirzepatide (LLY) has incredible growth (= it's not the market, it's semaglutide). NVO had every chance to do M&A and acquire someone more competitive to stand their ground against LLY and at least remain #2, and they didn't for reasons we don't know (probably ego) BUT the positive thing is that the new CEO appears to be more inclined to do M&A (multiple offers on MTSR that we know of, probably many, many offers on VKTX too but refused because they were too low). What you want as a NVO shareholder is an acquisition. Because NVO's internal pipeline is not competitive against LLY.
NVO trying to outbid Pfizer for MTSR is the first time in a while that company has shown some balls
NVO starts a bidding war with PFE by bidding more on MTSR. Results: MTSR +19% LLY +6% VKTX +6% This is almost unheard of. I'm speechless. VKTX is definitely a buy.
Doesn't matter, we're not expecting any new data, so the stock will be flat. This is a long term play, 7 parties were interested in MTSR and offered up to $10B, VKTX would be worth at the very least 2.5x max offer or 25B.
MTSR PUTS short Pfizer
VKTX = floor is now 15B based on AKRO, 89bio and MTSR recent acquisitions. This is a 280% upside btw!
Thank you bro. I got into MTSR last week because I read about it here . Today is a good day
PFE is now not an option anymore, yes. They chose MTSR over VKTX because they didn't want to pay VKTX's asking price. Bourla said some time ago that there were "crazy demands", we now know they were referring to VKTX (as MTSR didn't have "crazy demands"). It is very likely Viking asked for at least 15B (which would absolutely be fair), and Pfizer didn't want to pay this much. Ultimately, it's their loss. There's no shortage of Big Pharma who may want to acquire VKTX. The thesis stands firm.
When you think MSTR went up 50%+ but its actually MTSR.
MTSR was the play all along.. mix up with MSTR
ROFL did you not get the memo? MTSR getting bought out by PFE. VKTX is toast
If it makes you feel better my husband sold our 5 bitcoin (average purchase price around 25k) and sound 200k from our 401k on MTSR and MARA calls since earlier this year. Lost it all. Behind my back 🙃
MTSR is a bio tech company you donkey. 🫵🤡
they correlate but not well, have you seen the variance just in $MARA, $MTSR, $MSTR alone?
MTSR has been my best. BTBT is the worst by far
I think stocks connected to weight loss drugs are the next big thing. Take a look at MTSR, for example.
Does MTSR have a product besides Bitcoin these days?
MTSR volume up, price up, my pecker up
Spelling it wrong it’s MTSR
MTSR up 10% I’m telling y’all
MTSR strong start today like yesterday
I live in Australia. Usually I trade first 2-hours when the market is open. And when I wake up I look at how market will close and decide if I can close some positions or buy some . Anywho, I woke up and my MTSR puts (exp April ,)are up 250%. Great let me cash out . Turns out it's daylight savings in the US and I am 30 minutes late. I have a feeling it will bounce tomorrow.
MTSR = LTCM Just a matter of time...
Yeah I pulled out of MTSR. Prefer much less volatile investments. I think PLTR will continue to grow, just like NVIDIA. Data, Ai, Quantum computing will all pay out over the next 10-20 years the way things are going.