ODD

QHONTOLIAR

interesting. ODD has the best balance sheet, however insider and institutional are selling.

tomtomthebest

Thanks, they have 300 mio cash and 600 mio debt. Is that a convertible bond? Any idea how many shares they have to issue and at what price? I will wait for the next quarter update. The price action looks a bit scary. Company is based in Israel so they might face some push backs. When will the legal case be settled, any idea. Maybe they have to pay a big settlement so it sounds a bit risky. Anyway thanks for your time writing about ODD.

KDingo2

ODD slammed in pre. Buying at $10 for the bounce

CALAND951

CRDO calls, you're welcome. ODD calls, you're welcome. RELY calls, you're welcome.

KDingo2

ODD

KDingo2

ODD has very little float. CEO owns 24%, several 10% holders. Moves on low volume. Interesting set up with earnings next week.

KDingo2

ODD Oddity Tech Keybanc see 3 weeks positive credit card spending in May. Bullish Outlook

KDingo2

Oddity Tech ODD up 5%. Earnings 6/2 🚀

Xcentric7881

If we then ask AI to use this as the stock choice thesis, after some thought it gives us: The thesis you gave points to small, cheap, profitable, cash-generative companies that can reinvest without EBITDA falling behind asset growth; valuation and FCF yield matter more than pure revenue growth.  # 1. ODDITY Tech — ODD **Why it fits:** The strongest “fallen but still profitable” setup. ODD has a market cap around **$691m**, EV around **$523m**, **EV/EBITDA \~4.0**, **EV/FCF \~6.25**, **ROIC \~20.6%**, and the stock is down about **81% over 52 weeks**. That is exactly the kind of valuation-reset + profitability profile the thesis likes.  **10x case:** If the current customer-acquisition-cost problem proves temporary, ODDITY could rerate sharply because 2025 revenue was **$810m**, up **25%**, with **$163m adjusted EBITDA** and **$84m free cash flow**. The big risk is real: management said ad-platform disruption could make Q1 2026 revenue fall about **30% YoY**, so this one depends on CAC normalising.  # 2. Payoneer — PAYO **Why it fits:** PAYO is small enough at about **$1.6bn market cap**, has **EV/FCF \~6.8**, **FCF yield \~12.4%**, net cash, and **ROIC \~22%**; the stock is also down about **33% over 52 weeks**.  **10x case:** It is a profitable cross-border payments platform in a huge B2B digitisation market. Q1 2026 showed **11% revenue ex-interest growth**, **44% B2B volume growth**, and management raised 2026 guidance to **$1.1bn–$1.14bn revenue** and **$285m–$295m adjusted EBITDA**.  # 3. dLocal — DLO **Why it fits:** DLO has a market cap around **$3.4bn**, **EV/FCF \~6.3**, **FCF yield \~12.2%**, **ROIC \~22.4%**, low debt relative to cash flow, and very high insider ownership.  **10x case:** Emerging-market payments still have a long runway, and Q1 2026 was strong operationally: **TPV +73%**, **revenue +55%**, and **gross profit +40% YoY**. The caution is margin pressure: reported net income fell, although management attributes part of that to a one-off tax adjustment.  # 4. StoneCo — STNE **Why it fits:** This is the cheapest on raw numbers: about **$2.5bn market cap**, **P/FCF \~3.8**, **EV/EBITDA \~2.7**, **EV/FCF \~5.6**, **ROIC \~31%**, and **FCF yield \~26%**. The stock is down about **24% over 52 weeks**, which also fits the “not already loved” part of the thesis.  **10x case:** If Brazil SME payments/financial services continue compounding and the market regains confidence, the valuation has massive rerating potential. The 1Q26 release showed adjusted EPS up **15.4% YoY**, helped by aggressive buybacks; the risk is that growth/margins are not yet cleanly accelerating.  # 5. GigaCloud Technology — GCT **Why it fits:** GCT has a market cap around **$1.37bn**, **PE \~9.4**, **EV/FCF \~9.9**, **FCF yield \~10.9%**, and **ROIC \~23%**.  **10x case:** It is building a B2B marketplace/logistics platform for large-parcel goods, with Q1 2026 revenue up **32.2%**, adjusted EBITDA up **37.3%**, active buyers up **25.2%**, and 3P-seller GMV up **23.7%**. The caveat is entry price: unlike the others, the stock is up nearly **98% over 52 weeks**, so it is less “near the lows” than the thesis ideally wants.  My ranked shortlist would be: **ODD, PAYO, DLO, STNE, GCT**. The first four fit the “cheap, profitable, cash-generative, unloved” thesis more cleanly; GCT has perhaps the clearest profitable growth engine, but the current price action is less thesis-perfect. \----- ChatGPT is not me; neither of us give financial advice.

KDingo2

Oddity Tech... Private Equity needs to step in and break up company. Great brands horrible marketing thru Algos.. ODD 3X Ceo holds 24%.

KDingo2

Oddity Tech ODD @ $12.84 💥

KDingo2

Oddity Tech ODD... Down 10% yesterday, 5m shares short, very little float, earnings Tuesday. 😬

YesterdayAmbitious49

Any other $ODD post earnings disaster dip-buyers still hanging in there?

Subie-

I’m actually suspicious of this market. War is going on and yet markets keep going up? And of course there’s insider trading. It’s been known for years. Nancy Pelosi is the biggest one. Then the Shawn Ryan show exposed Dan Crenshaw. Senators make like 200-250k yet he’s worth millions? ODD.

KDingo2

ODD Oddity Tech up 40% off low. Headed back to $30

KDingo2

ODD has massive insider holdings. Low float. 4.5m shares short. Up 9% on 200k volume

KDingo2

Oddity Tech ODD 📈

creemeeseason

For ODD I depended heavily on my wife and her habits. It was actually the thing that pushed me over the buy line on that one. She has excellent taste.

throwaway9gk0k4k569

You invested in ODD.

Nicky_Feathers

What competitive space are we talking about here? WeRide's markets are not homogenous. If you’re implicitly treating WRD like a single-line robotaxi operator. It isn’t. WeRide is a multi-domain autonomy platform with 3 very different revenue qualities: Hardware-led (robotaxi, robobus, robovan, robosweeper), Licensing / software (ADAS, autonomy stack), Services and operations. So the current P/S is anchored on a front-loaded revenue mix, not steady-state economics. You’re valuing a transition phase as if it’s the end state. The relevant question is: What does P/S look like when software share increases and utilization stabilizes? Sure deep pockets help. But it assumes all capital is equally useful. It isn’t. Example: Waymo has deep pockets, but scaling is constrained by ODD, cost, and ops. Tesla has capital, but is still unresolved on full autonomy deployment. I think the better question is: Who converts deployments into repeatable, contracted revenue fastest? I believe WeRide is doing a very good job here.

AntoniaFauci

ODD seems to have dodged a bullet. It got a huge pump on what I thought was a nothing story. The headline was a $200 million buyback, but it was really just an adjustment of the existing $150 million buyback authorization. Then during the day and since both ELF and ULTA have crashed. ODD was unmoved.

creemeeseason

ODD showing a lot of confidence, which is impressive. I might add to my calls.

creemeeseason

Oddity Tech (ODD) said Thursday the board approved a plan to buy back up to $200 million of the company's Class A shares. The buyback plan replaces Oddity Tech's previously announced $150 million repurchase program and expires on March 31, 2029, the company said. This would equal about 30% of the current market cap.

AntoniaFauci

ULTA (26 P/E) reports tomorrow. Wonder what the read-through to ODD (6 P/E) will be.

KDingo2

Ceo buys 857k shares of Oddity Tech ODD. It might be time to buy the dip!!

KDingo2

Oddity tech ODD CEO acquired 875k shares open market the last 2 days. Up 8%

KDingo2

Inverse Cramer....Oddity ODD

KDingo2

Oddity tech ODD after getting crushed on earnings/guidance its bounced 30% and moving today. $103m in share buybacks, very little float. In again 😬

creemeeseason

ODD CEO bought $13.7 million worth of shares.

YesterdayAmbitious49

I was seeing $ODD pop up here quite a bit the last few months. Now that it’s tanked 85% what are people’s thoughts? I bought at 37, sold at 45 for a small profit. After the crash I bought at 13.33 and holding, obviously I missed the bottom.

creemeeseason

A few thoughts on some holdings I've mentioned on here before.... ODD. So I sold my shares and used a small portion to buy Jan 2027 OTM calls. The stock is priced for failure and if management salvages anything in the next few quarters, there's upside. Wouldn't rule out an acquisition bid in the interim. If I'm wrong, I lose a few more bucks. However, I think the company will rightly trade at a low multiple for awhile. If they're at this much risk from an algo change, it's warranted. If it's really promising come next year I can always act on a few of my options to buy some shares. UFPT. One of my longest holdings and personal favorite companies. However, their organic growth has dramatically declined and they're becoming more and more dependent on acquisition. Not that that is bad, it just changes the nature of the company. 15x EBITDA is kinda a standard for that type of company and that's right where the company is trading. So, I'm not sure how much upside there is left. That's what the market has been reflecting since earnings. I'm still holding as of now, but I might consider trimming/selling for some options that appear to offer better returns. ABX. Man, I can't wait for earnings here. MIAX. Absolutely destroyed earnings last week, but got very little response. I think it's too new to get momentum, but I added a few more shares around $40 last week. It's not often a new stock exchange gets listed.

ShootsnLadders

Did $ODD ever provide any more detail as to how they expect a 30% decrease in revenue for Q1?

throwaway9gk0k4k569

Big yikes on ODD. They said ad spending got out of control. That's not credible. They either have serious control and competence issues or there's malice going on.

throwaway9gk0k4k569

How do you feel about ODD now? They are currently apologizing for apocalyptically abnormal advert auctions, but I'm not sure I accept the excuse.

creemeeseason

Flatbed trucking rates going absolutely nuts, above COVID levels, and particularly in the Midwest. LTL still high, but not seeing the same spike. Possibly because of increasing equipment sales. Still sorting out ODD. It's trading for cash on hand right now, but if an algo change at Instagram can hurt business this much...it's questionable. Watching to see what the company does. They can buy back 12% of the company with their current buyback authorization. I expect to see them do it, plus some insider buys if they have any confidence in fixing this.

creemeeseason

One more ODD thought for the day.... The company had $776 million in cash at the end of last quarter. The current market cap is $846 million. The market is valuing the business, that put out $84 million of fcf last year, at $70 million.

reddit-abcde

ODD 50% drop

OmegaThree3

I was going to short $ODD which is like a tech minded make up company but didnt do it and they are down 50% today wow!

Normal-Phase-1252

lost 20k on ODD, what now

creemeeseason

Well, ODD 20% off the morning lows, so that's something.

death_putt

what happened with ODD Tech??? down 50%!

Glimmerofhope

Great options returns on ODD CRCL GDDY WDAY… Should still be a little potential on NVTS but maybe it’s flat this time. HUT might have some potential by the end of the week but it’s reduced from the move

creemeeseason

ODD earnings: Fourth quarter net revenue of $153 million, up 24% year-over-year Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA of $13 million Fourth quarter net income of $6 million and fourth quarter adjusted net income of $12 million Full year net revenue of $810 million, up 25% year-over-year Full year adjusted EBITDA of $163 million Full year net operating cash flow of $88 million and free cash flow of $84 million Also guiding for a 30% revenue decline in Q1 due to a one off marketing algo problem. This actually seems fishy to me, but I'll read more. Stock getting murdered.

ShootsnLadders

Man $ODD is toast.

KDingo2

Oddity Tech ODD 15PE 24% growth Earnings 2/25 Let's Go! 📈

superareyou

I'm not sure if they didn't win but there was some ODD stuff around a few of Trumps comments and Elon. The fact they won all seven swing states was very unusual and hasn't happened in 40 years. Still I think there's probably more reason to think that many people are misogynist and racist, and an even greater amount are subconsciously so or in ways they rarely if ever admit to. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if two things were true - some cheating happened, but also many swing voters silently voted trump.

SelfDiagnosedUnicorn

I wouldn’t even recognize ODD if it didn’t hit a new 52 week low every week.

YesterdayAmbitious49

$ODD shareholders have been cooked

creemeeseason

Been buying ODD, BYRN, and MIAX recently. Also small cap industrials.

creemeeseason

Two large holders of ODD have added bigly to their positions in the last week. I've done the same.

KDingo2

The Oddity train is leaving the station. ODD 📈🚀

creemeeseason

Oh definitely. Silver and gold too. Massively overbought with leverage. It wouldn't surprise me if some SaaS investors got margin called as well. Everyone loves a reason for selloffs, but a lot of time it's just market mechanics. Got to buy BYRN and added to ODD and some OPEN calls. I'll take it.

KDingo2

Oddity Tech ODD Strong EPS and Revenue growth.

KDingo2

ODD Buy the Dip!!

Boomer_With_Dementia

ODD disorder is the best disorder !! When I see a toddler with ODD, I say to the parents.. what a wonderful child. When I meet a women with ODD, I propose to them. In short ODD humans are the best humans.

KDingo2

Oddity Tech ODD breakout in to earnings

Mikey-Litoris

Its ODD that there's only a small possibility that the SCOTUS will interpret the constitution to mean what it CLEARLY SAYS IN PLAIN ENGLISH. The corruption is deep and wide.

creemeeseason

I asked Gemini to load the 10 most common methods of technical analysis. Then asked it to apply them trying to find a possible bottom for ODD. It answered around $35.10. Added a few more shares, we'll see what happens.

salty0waldo

Started small positions in ODD and SKWD. ODD is a cool company and valuation is attractive. SKWD is growing fast with fair valuation. They have tilted into agriculture insurance which should continue to grow.

youngtylez

My goodness ODD has gotten pounded lately. Might be time to nibble again

YesterdayAmbitious49

Is anyone buying $ODD under 36 today?

YesterdayAmbitious49

So when do we buy back in to $ODD

Rule_Of_72T

ODD great looking income statement, balance sheet, and cash flows. Clear path to growth. Share price appreciation could come in back half of 2026. Their new product line extension into the medical side of beauty reminds me of HIMS. Big potential, while the share price is supported by the core business.

creemeeseason

I'm having a harder time pinning down an exact fair value. However, there's a very legitimate case to be made they do 25-30% growth annually over the next 2-3 years. So 25% for three years gives me $734 million in revenue. This is about inline with consensus. I'd also be banking on some multiple expansion since they're the only player large enough to meet much of the demand. 7-8x sales for a moaty company growing at obscene rates? That would be a $5 billion market cap or 2.5x in three years. Inflection to cash flow positive helps this case, and that should happen this year. Slightly bullish numbers. I'm not convinced enough to make it a huge position like ABX or ODD, but happy to put a standard starter on it, with the possibility of adding opportunistically.

YesterdayAmbitious49

$ODD creeping down into the buy zone soon.

Rule_Of_72T

ODD - Strong financials, clear growth path

JJLite

I have been watching ODD - Odditty Technologies. Its not at all time lows but I think its undervalued. Earnings have been good, management team is good and I like the company viability long term. Not advice, just another stock pick.

AntoniaFauci

Thought I had robbed a bank with $39 ODD. Agree with the energy thesis, if by energy you mean electricity. Agree that sometimes left for dead sectors can have zero logical reason to rally on a given date, then months later we look back and say it was obvious. Today, there seems to be glut potential for fossil energy with everyone including us pumping, with the rest of the world ignoring our administration’s weirdness, with potential surrender deal in Ukraine. But as I say, often those logical outlooks come completely undone. Sometimes technical charts matter more than fundamentals. I’m still accumulating solar names even 2025 wasn’t their turn. Biotech seems like an obvious good prospect. Same with M&A stuff. Agree on metals and mining. Can’t believe how long and brutal it has been for some chemicals. You’re the axe on trucking, I take your word for what you’re saying.

creemeeseason

As I read the suggestions of great stocks for 2026 I'm surprised by one thing: most of the suggestions are the biggest winners from last year. NBIS, RKLB, SMR..... So the consensus seems to be last year's winners will win big again. However, not a lot of gold related names in there which is interesting, and possibly telling. I'll throw out a few: ODD. Very few people are talking about the amount of stimulus written into the OBBB. We're probably looking at the highest tax refunds in awhile and people are going to spend that cash. Consumer names are beaten down by the recession talk but we're seeing above average Christmas shopping levels. Trucking. Huge amounts of capacity have come off the road. Tender rejections are the highest in years. Any kind of demand is going to spike rates. Biotech I own TWST and CRMD. Falling rates are generally good for biotech. Hopefully next year will provide some clarity on healthcare too.

DOE_ZELF_NORMAAL

Yeah, I think that’s a much closer framing than the earlier “crutch vs. purity” takes. Both systems do have safety nets, and both use them as fallback layers when the autonomy stack loses confidence. But there’s still an important distinction in where the safety net lives and what it implies. Waymo’s fallback is inside the autonomy stack itself (map validation + remote ops → conservative behavior). Tesla’s fallback is outside the autonomy stack (human takeover → L2/L3 handoff). So functionally, yeah, both have guardrails. But architecturally, the difference is. Waymo is L4 today (no human fallback within its ODD). Tesla is L2/L2+ today (human fallback everywhere). And that’s where the comparison matters. Waymo’s safety net = machine redundancy. Tesla’s safety net = human supervision. Both companies claim the end goal is to remove their respective nets and reach generalized autonomy. There’s no disagreement there. Where the debate still exists is if they do converge on similar architectures. Or do they continue to scale along different priorities? But I agree with you on the core point. Neither company intends the current safety layer to be permanent. Both are using it as scaffolding to gather data and validate the stack. So yes, long-term ambition is the same: remove the safety net → reach true L4/L5. The disagreement is about which path gets there faster, safer, or at all, not whether they’re playing the same game fundamentally.

YesterdayAmbitious49

I bought ODD at 37 and dumped all of it at 45.

creemeeseason

Now that u/_hiddenscout is back, backlog of information to dump.... Trucking tender rejections are over 10%, the highest in years. That's really good for truckers. If we get a little demand juice as tax refunds roll in, trucking stocks are primed. HTLD calls. TWST has become my new obsession. I think AI will dramatically speed drug discovery (ODD has been doing this with cosmetics) leading to a huge surge in demand for synthetic DNA for testing. Also, they have a stake in a company that uses DNA for data storage which is a really interesting play on data centers down the road. No position yet.

DOE_ZELF_NORMAAL

I get the analogy, but it kinda falls apart because Tesla isn’t lifting weights here, they’re rewriting the rulebook on how autonomy even works. Waymo/Cruise-style demos are basically lifting a very specific 10-pound dumbbell: mapped route, limited conditions, curated ODD. Tesla’s trying to build the general-purpose strength to lift any weight in any gym. Different sport entirely. And yeah, in the real world most companies show incremental progress. Totally fair point. But Tesla’s approach isn’t incremental by design, they aren’t building the “highway only mode,” then the “city only mode,” then the “left turns after 3pm” mode. They’re training one brain to handle the whole thing. That’s why a single demo doesn’t tell you much about whether that brain is actually generalizing or just memorizing a loop. If Tesla trotted out a single autonomous ride tomorrow, people would (rightly) say: “Cool, now do it at night. Now in the rain. Now with construction. Now in Boston. Now during a solar eclipse.” A one-off demo doesn’t validate the thing they’re trying to build. None of this means Tesla is guaranteed to nail it, obviously. But pretending a flashy PR run is some magic indicator of technological maturity is rough logic. Waymo did their demos a decade ago and still can’t scale outside tightly groomed ODDs. Cruise aced demos then faceplanted in real deployment. If Tesla’s gamble pays off, it’ll look like “nothing nothing nothing… BAM, widespread rollout.” If it doesn’t, sure, they’ll have overreached. But holding them to the demo standard of systems built on a completely different architecture is just comparing apples to orbital rockets.

DOE_ZELF_NORMAAL

You’re acting like “just do L3 on highways” is some trivial checkbox, but that’s exactly the philosophical split here. An L3 system isn’t just “drive well on highways and beep when the exit’s coming.” It’s a frozen, auditable, legally bounded mode with a defined ODD and deterministic behavior. Tesla’s whole stack is built around continuous learning and probabilistic outputs which is great for generalization, but a nightmare for certifying something that regulators can treat like a calculator. And yeah, of course Tesla could build a separate, hand-tuned, map-heavy, geofenced highway-only mode. They just don’t want to maintain two code paths and split their effort the way Mercedes and Waymo do. You can call that stupid or over-ambitious, but pretending that L3 certification magically falls out of a general neural net once it “works well enough” is just not how any of this works. Also, you’re oversimplifying the pull-over scenario. L3 requires safe fallback in all conditions within its ODD, not “hope the shoulder is free.” That means redundancy, failover compute, and predictable planning, which again is easier when your system is built around constraints and crisp rules instead of a giant end-to-end policy. You don’t have to like Tesla’s approach, totally fair if you think they should do the Mercedes route instead, but acting like the only reason they’re not L3 is “lol the tech sucks” is just a Reddit fantasy. Different architecture, different goal, different certification path.

DOE_ZELF_NORMAAL

You’re kinda missing what I’m actually saying. Nobody is claiming Tesla is being held back by regulators. The whole point is Tesla isn’t aiming at the same milestone Mercedes was, so of course they’re still in L2, their tech isn’t designed to be “frozen and certified” in a narrow box. And yes, the SAE levels existed before the regs, but regulators still use them as the framework. L3 isn’t just “driver can look away,” it’s the manufacturer legally takes responsibility within a strictly defined ODD. Tesla’s system isn’t built around that concept at all. It’s built to expand, not to lock itself into a tiny, guaranteed envelope. Like, if Tesla wanted a geofenced 40 mph traffic jam mode tomorrow, they could probably hack one together. But they’d rather push a general vision model that works basically everywhere. That comes with more growing pains, for sure, but it’s also the only path that scales beyond luxury-car demos. And yeah, today FSD is L2, no argument there. Everyone sees that. The debate isn’t “what level is Tesla right now,” it’s why they’re not chasing the incremental level certifications like Mercedes. Different strategy, different end goal. We can absolutely revisit it when it changes, but acting like the only reason it’s L2 is because the tech “failed to reach L3” kinda ignores that L3 requires a whole different design philosophy than what Tesla’s even trying to build.

YesterdayAmbitious49

I liquidated all of my $ODD shares this morning at $45 for a 21.6% short term realized gain.

creemeeseason

ODD- several year hold (already held for a year). Extremely cheap for its growth. ABL- extremely cheap. Extremely. Hope to hold for a few years, but $20 might warrant a trim. SJT- holding until it relates due to resumption of its dividend, hopefully in 2026. Possibly beyond because it's just going to gush cash. CRMD- bought June calls. It's extremely cheap due to fears of its pricing getting cut. I feel like when this issue is resolved, the price will rerate.

creemeeseason

My recent buys: ODD ABL CRMD SJT

GeneLow40

This is what I was referring to "The ODD approved by the FDA opens a world of opportunities for advancing the company's cancer therapy as it moves into the next clinical phases."

GeneLow40

Sorry what I meant to say was they got FDA approval for the ODD - I can see why thats confusing ha. From what I understand, getting ODD is no easy feat?

MaxReddit2789

Orphan Drug designation (ODD) and FDA Approval for commercialization are two completely different things ODD status is something that definitely offers certain "perks", but the drug is still very far from being "approved" for commercialization

Be-ur-best-self

Yes, there are plenty of quality growth stocks using the applications of Teck in other industries. Examples would be, ODD HOOD RKLB TOST.

_hiddenscout

ODD has been on a nice little run. Always great when stuff you own gets some steam. Like NRDS has been on a solid run. Same with AMTM.

YesterdayAmbitious49

Things to be thankful for: 1. Berkshire +7% since buying 2. Google +16% since buying (yeah I was late) 3. ODD +14% since buying

creemeeseason

A lot of smaller names also have very high short interest though. Including growing and profitable names. ODD is at 11%. UFPT is at 15%. There's more than active selling, there's active shorting.

YesterdayAmbitious49

My current individual stock holdings are BRK.B, GOOG, and ODD Thots?

youngtylez

Seems like what is keeping ODD down are a bunch of analyst price target reductions. GS reasoning was due to “consumer weakness” - This hasnt been the case yet for ODD

YesterdayAmbitious49

Watching $ODD get trampled after that great earnings is nuts. Straight back to the downward trend.

youngtylez

Brutal, ODD gave back its ER gains

KDingo2

ODD

_hiddenscout

Man it’s wild sometimes owning individual stocks and learning to stomach volatility.  Like ODD is up like 15% today. That’s basically a good year of SP gains in one day for an asset.  Also biggest thing is knowing what you buy. Helps when holding when going down.

creemeeseason

A few notes on ODD after coming down from an earnings high... We're probably going to see increasing cash burn with methodIQ launching. Fortunately the company has been hoarding cash, but the cash flow might look ugly for a few quarters. Ditto brand 4. Looks like a gap up to $45 or so, which has been a big volume area historically. Wouldn't be surprised to see it touch $50. Also sort of expecting it to bounce around between $44-50 range for awhile while the technicals shore up a bit. I had fair value around $60 going into earnings. After running some numbers last night I'm more in the $60-65 range. More upside is there, but cash burn is worth watching. Even blowing all their cash on marketing I still think $60 is fair, plus 20% growth there after as the company grows.

KDingo2

Oddity Tech ODD 😎

creemeeseason

It's actually one that I trimmed back when it was over $70, so some of my cheapest shares are gone. Bought plenty down here though! It's also a great rest of conviction. Like, ODD went from $75 to $37. You have to have conviction there. It's turned me on to starter positions, really see how a drawdown feels.

creemeeseason

ODD raising 2025 guidance is baller. There are 6 weeks left in the year, and they're raising. Guiding $2.10/share on the low end. $12 cash per share, no debt. That was 11.9x EV/Earnings leading into this report. Growing 25% annually.

_hiddenscout

$ODD **Q3 net revenue $148M (+24% YoY)** and **nine-month net revenue $657M (+26% YoY)**. Q3 gross profit was $106M and gross margin improved to **71.6% (+170 bps)**. Q3 adjusted EBITDA was **$29M** and nine-month adjusted EBITDA was **$151M**. Q3 net income was **$18M** and adjusted net income was **$25M (+26% YoY)**. Cash, equivalents and investments totaled **$793M** with **$200M** undrawn credit facilities as of Sept. 30, 2025. The company raised full-year 2025 outlook to **$806–809M revenue**, gross margin \~**72.5%**, adjusted EBITDA **$161–163M**, and adjusted diluted EPS **$2.10–2.12**. METHODIQ brand formally launched in November 2025. * **Q3 net revenue** $148M (+24% YoY) * **Nine‑month net revenue** $657M (+26% YoY) * **Gross margin** 71.6% (+170 bps YoY) * **Cash and investments** $793M with $200M undrawn credit * **Q3 net income margin** 12.0% (down from 14.9% YoY) * **Adjusted EBITDA margin** 19.5% (down 140 bps YoY) * **Q4 adjusted EBITDA guidance** $10–12M (lower quarterly midpoint) “ODDITY delivered strong third quarter results, including financial performance that once again exceeded our guidance across revenue, profit, and earnings per share,” said Oran Holtzman, ODDITY co-founder and CEO. “We are well positioned for a strong finish in 2025 with multiple engines to drive future growth, and we continue to invest in new brands, ODDITY Labs, and tech innovation.” “We achieved a major milestone this week with the official launch of our newest brand: METHODIQ,” Holtzman continued. “Our goal with METHODIQ is to transform a broken medical care system with precise treatments, pioneering technology, and the highest standard of care. This is the next frontier for ODDITY, harnessing the power of our data and technology platform to offer medical grade solutions for our users.”

creemeeseason

I was buying NATL recently, I think it's super cheap and they're turning on the buyback machine, which is really helpful in this environment. SJT is interesting with nat gas being hot. When they restart the dividend I expect good things. I've also been buying ODD. Chart is terrible, but I can't resist adding to my position down here. It's too cheap. Otherwise I'm being very discerning right now. Everything I look at has a Terrible chart and I'm not particularly bullish. CCOI is cheap, but plummeting. SHLS is interesting, but not super cheap. ABL is dirt cheap, but I own a ton already. CRMD is one I'n really interested in, but I'm still evaluating it. It looks too obvious and I'm sure I'm missing something.

creemeeseason

ODD lots with a great episode on the politics of AI, found [here](https://open.spotify.com/episode/7DifQVNr0WxbAVJF7fH4ua?si=8F_lhR_VSIy1aYGB1SdtHg). I've been watching this bubble and I'm fairly convinced this could be a big driver of future business. For example, there's going to be huge pressure on politicians to bring down electricity rates to pre AI levels. Worth a listen.

creemeeseason

Oddity Tech (ODD) said Tuesday it launched Methodiq, a telehealth platform that provides tailored treatments through online diagnosis, removing the need for in-person doctor visits or pharmacy trips. The platform debuts with online treatments for acne, hyperpigmentation and eczema, with plans to expand into additional medical areas. Developed with board-certified dermatologists, Methodiq uses AI-based skin analysis, computer-vision progress tracking and a mix of prescription and non-prescription treatments to support online dermatology care. Methodiq launches with 28 core products and more than 100 personalized treatment plans, including formulations that feature proprietary ingredients from Oddity Labs, according to the company.

creemeeseason

ODD officially launching MethodIQ, previously referred to as brand 3. The goal is to launch personalized skin health products. Curious to see how this works out. I still think the market hasn't priced in any gain out of brand 3 and 4, much less the existing brands.