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2024 Shorting Ideas - Companies that has exposure to used car market
Franchise (New) Auto dealer info for plays by EOD 10/18/2022
$ACST - Some companies keep investor better informed than others. Here's the update from Acasti Pharma. Good days ahead!
The high prices of used cars may finally be dropping: Sonic Automotive president
This was a Wendy's once. It can be again.
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I've been eyeing on Google for a long time, and they will probably be one of the tech giants that will struggle in future. Never forget what's their main business mode - ads. Google Search is their main cashcow. Remember how Google used to be very sleek and neat? Just 2 ads at the top, then 10 blue links below. No BS, straight to the point, and you get accurate and relevant websites and you can be sure you get your questions answered. But since COVID, something happened. They got greedy. They know people are all WFH and staying in-doors due to SAH mandate. That's when the CEO got greedy and started changing the search results layout. From 2 ads, become 3 ads, then 4 ads. Then they started putting images, shopping panel ads, Youtube videos on the search results, and so on. Well, I wouldn't mind if they do that, but they started intentionally dumbing down the search results. So users were getting frustrated. I'm sure you and the others here have witnessed it before - you search for something on Google but you get inaccurate search results, or the websites are spam sites, .etc. Or AI-generated garbage. That is why when ChatGPT came out in Nov-Dec 2022, it was a huge shock to Google. They never expect an AI chatbot agent to pop up and it was a huge threat to them. Why would people search for something on Google and see all the messy ads, at the same time, irrelevant search results and not getting their questions answered... Whereas if you ask on ChatGPT, it will answer it directly and you can refine by asking more questions to get all your questions answered. Example, you ask ChatGPT, "What should I cook today?" ChatGPT can recommend a few recipes. You can follow up by asking, "I want vegan recipes only." and it will narrow down to give you a specific answer. From there, you can keep narrowing down like "No diary too." and ChatGPT will keep giving you the answer that you really want. Imagine you ask in Google Search, you will get frustrated because you can't refine and narrow down and you still see all the ads and sh*t. Then in 2023, several months after the release of ChatGPT, Google released "Bard" AI to counter ChatGPT. It was a tremendous failure - it is full of bugs and give nonsensical answers, even their presentation was ill-prepared and not convincing at all. Their stock dived after the presentation. It was so bad that Google renamed "Bard" to "Gemini". However, ChatGPT kept releasing newer models and it drew more users instead. In late 2023, people noticed Reddit was starting to rank very well on Google. Google Search Team, John Mueller, claimed that they did so because they notice users like to add 'reddit' behind their search term, so they're just delivering what users want. But is it the truth? Well, no. Because in Jan-Feb 2024, Google and Reddit revealed they got a data deal together. So Reddit's content are all fed to train Google's AI like Gemini. Huge conflict of interest. In 2024 onwards, Google got desperate... Though they always report good earnings call, the problem is it is 'manipulated'. Manipulate in the sense that they just stuff more ads on Youtube, force webmasters and app developers to use their fellow products as a bundle (e.g: you use Google Analytics, but they make it damn hard if you want to use a third party tracker, however if you use Google Cloud Services, it is one-click integration but damn exp. And Microsoft Azure and Amazon AWS are so much better). Then they kept tweaking the search results and now you see it is so messy because it is configured to make users click on their ads nia. They spent so much effort and money trying to associate Google with "AI". During their 2024 I/O event, they kept saying "AI", "AI", "AI". You will notice they kept using the word "AI". So by mid-2024, I'm sure you all noticed something. They started showing "AI Overviews" on top of the search results now. But it drew a lot of criticism because webmasters aren't getting much traffic. And if webmasters don't get traffic, they aren't getting revenue from ads or whatever. So in the end a lot of webmasters gave up on their websites instead. In future, data mining will be an issue if more and more webmasters stop publishing from their own expertise or experience. But wait! Remember Reddit data deal? They know when they rank Reddit at the top, many users will sign up and participate in Reddit; many would ask questions and answers without all the BS and 'introduction text'. It is a win-win. Google practically threw all those webmasters who trusted them under the bus. Google initially claim it is those "SEOs" who destroyed the search results. But this is NOT true. If you ask a question now in Google, you get "AI Overviews" and they cite all the correct websites. What does this tell you? It means they can make the search results accurate and smart again, but they refused to. Just last week, Google tweaked "AI Overviews" - it now links back to the search results. Why? Easy, so they will keep showing you 4 ads at the top over and over to users to increase the likelihood of users clicking on them. It also explains why they always purposely rank Youtube videos (instead of textual content, or when there's a video search tab for it) so when users go to Youtube, they are forced to watch ads again. Ask yourself - is this a feasible strategy? Users are getting fed up, many are installing adblockers. Many also started leaving Google and use Perplexity, ChatGPT, Bing Search, Brave Search, DuckDuckGo, .etc. ChatGPT takes 60% of the AI chatbot marketshare; Co-pilot (by Microsoft, and big funder of OpenAI and uses ChatGPT to power their AI) takes 14.4%. Google Gemini only 13.5% despite all their heavy advertising, marketing, and giving out free trials. They now want to try releasing "AI Mode" on Google Search very soon but there's a problem.. Google admits they have issue monetising AI Overviews already, so I don't know how they gonna monetise AI Mode Search. I'm sure they will just stuff more ads and it will piss users off instead. And that leaves the other question - what about those people who paid for Gemini Pro when they can use AI Mode for free soon? And now with this antitrust lawsuit case, They will either have to split Chrome browser or split their ad unit away from Google Search. This is disasterous because they won't be able to track users to serve relevant ads liao (yes, Chrome is questionable - it tracks you, especially when you logged in with your G account). This is exactly what happened to Facebook back in early 2020s when Apple banned Facebook App from third-party tracking... When they did that, it means Facebook App cannot send user's behaviour and metrics back to their ad center to serve relevant ads. Later, Google was despicable to follow suit for Android OS - they claim it was for user's privacy but it is intentionally to sabotage Facebook. Google is even now so despicable they want an antitrust investigation being done on OpenAI and Microsoft. They claim it is conflict of interest and trying to monopolize the AI market. They want Microsoft to stop supplying cloud/server services to OpenAI). In reality, it is because Google knows they are losing... So they are playing dirty. In summary: Google will be walking on thin ice. Their future is bleak.
Saw you say in another comment that she’s functionally a SAH and you’re the primary breadwinner.
This is when everyone on finX (whether they're CMTs or self-verified SAH dads) goes "yall crying about -1%? this is normal" then on Monday it'll be "total overreaction" then next Friday it's "Thanks for the cheap shares, I added even more", rinse repeat
Yeah I want to see the Type 2 army get off their fat asses and wage war, flanked by SAH mom militia.
EBS! Huge opportunity for this thing to go up not on a meme but on fundamental data. Also looking at shorting SAH. Market technicals are a little funny lately but I’ve crushed it shorting them
Despite record highs in home ownership rates, even higher than the golden 1960s when supposedly janitors can support a SAH wife, 6 children own their home plus 2 cars. They'll complain no one can buy a home. On top of this, millenials have no fucking clue the headache, money and work involved in maintaining a home. Right now they just call the landlord every time there's an issue.
YourPath Passive 2065 Mod SAH6 That’s what comes up that says I am investing in, he said it was the least risk because that’s when I’ll retire is year 2065 How do I find out they switched company’s? Because all my Logins and information seems the same
Who here wants to gamble on SAH long term decline. Historically always falls significantly from Feb-May
The people screaming bubble “I’m low middle class and don’t want to pay this much for a house! I want to have a new f150 and a boat how tf am I supposed to afford all this and have kids with a SAH mom? BUBBLE!!!”
With this wave of women wanting ‘soft life era’, basically SAH, does it go both ways? My SO is a high earner and I’d get laughed out of the park if I suggested that… but she’s def joked/heard her mention it to her friends
Used car market is also another category that I will be watching closely for shorting in 2024 \*\* Traditional Used Car Retailers: CarMax (KMX): Up over 50% YTD, CarMax is the largest American used car retailer with a strong physical presence and growing online platform. Their focus on quality and customer service has positioned them well in the current market. AutoNation (AN): Up over 25% YTD, AutoNation is another major player in the traditional used car space, with a focus on omnichannel retailing and digital experience. Their acquisition of EchoPark, an online used car platform, strengthens their position in the online market. Sonic Automotive (SAH): Up over 20% YTD, Sonic Automotive operates dealerships across the US and has seen strong used car sales volume growth. Their diversified portfolio including parts and services helps mitigate risks. \*\* Online Used Car Platforms: Carvana (CVNA): Up over 80% YTD, Carvana is a pure-play online used car retailer known for its innovative vending machine delivery system. While their stock has been volatile, their growth potential in the online market is significant. Copart (CPRT): Up over 30% YTD, Copart is a salvage auction platform that indirectly benefits from a strong used car market. Their business model involves selling damaged vehicles to repair shops and individuals, with increasing used car prices driving demand for salvage vehicles.
Kudos to those that had puts on SAH and others like it.
Never, very serious. It will only get harder as the years go forward, and if you aren't actively adapting and maximizing your investment efficiency you will be left behind. The changing environment landscape will make it so (assuming you're in US). Retirement likely won't be a reality for most in the coming decades, but with the way jobs are shifting it should be far easier to take on remote and/or SAH jobs that older people can do and earn some basic income to supplement their (likely) poor portfolio.
I took offense as a full time stay-at-home son. Us SAH-ers got to stick together.
Puts on AN, LAD, SAH. Those are a few of the largest dealer groups. I used to work in the automotive industry and christ do I hate dealerships.
SAH, 13% short float, record revenues, held up today 👀
There is no pretending. Literally the exact inverse of what happened to cause inflation is what is happening right now, and in keeping with seemingly true recent history Fed fashion, they might have already gone through the stop sign. https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2023/august/where-is-shelter-inflation-headed/ The SF Fed is projecting that we may see shelter deflation. That has only happened two or three times in a meaningful way ever, the last time in 2008: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAH1 Plus, if China's weakness continues, oil demand is going to further drop. Saudi Arabia will not unilaterally support oil prices forever, and if they do, eventually US producers will bring back their artificially-low supply to capture the premium on Brent. https://sites.psu.edu/inflation/ https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data The Fed can pause right here safely and wait. I don't know about you, but I would rather pay $5/gallon than be out of work and pay $4.50/gallon.
I don't play the earnings game but I have puts for AN, ABG and SAH. So far they've had their net income decline, with interest rates and people holding onto their vehicles more I was expecting this. Bought a prior day before and already at a 10%+ return. I'll see how SAH does on Thursday,
If you want a cautionary tale, one of the nearest historical parallels might be [1969-1970](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession_of_1969%E2%80%931970). The Fed hiked to 6% by May 1968 and held there. It ended up not being enough, and they had to start hiking again in 1969, going to over 9%. The recession started in December and lasted most of 1970. Core PCE inflation in 1968, when they paused, was similar to now. But nominal GDP in 2nd half of 1968 was still growing almost 10%, didn't fall <8% until the recession hit, really. So I don't think we're heading for a repeat, yet. But if wages don't co-operate, I think we *could* be heading down that kind of road. I've been more optimistic than that though, up to now. I think labor markets do tend to lag, and there has been some indication they are weakening (quits rate starting to increase, continued claims starting to increase). But you don't want to see the economy heating up again to soon right now. And the real estate market already starting to heat up again isn't a good sign, either, given how much inflation recently was in [housing](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAH1#0). [CPI less Shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SA0L2#0) has been low over the past 6 months. There's really a lag in housing impacting CPI, rents and home prices were falling in the 2nd half of 2022. But if they are increasing again now that will show in CPI near the end of the year.
>There could be a number of reasons why investors are bearish on $SAH despite the company's strong fundamentals. Perhaps they believe that the current share price is not sustainable and that it will eventually come back down to earth. Or, maybe they think that there are better opportunities out there with other companies and don't see much upside potential in $SAH anymore.
Last time I looked into steel in Early Sept of 22, all the Mid-Level cut up shops that take cold roll here in the Midwest were hanging on excess rolls with shrinking warehouse to store it. Actually, their business model doesn't include setup for long term storage. The companies here deal with cold rolled and cut sheets used for car panels and tops. They ship out to all car manufacturers, electric and ITC. The manufacturing of rolled steel continues despite this. Of course, used and new cars selling on the lots aren't affected by this says SAH and PAG from their last ERs. Maybe in another 6mo that log-jam being created will showup.
Don't say that to SAH or PAG. Those fuckers help up during the last drop and increased on super low volume and more selling.
Yes, they report earnings Thursday morning. I have put on them SAH and PAG
It is heavily institutionally owned. I knew it would be a small bleed, but a persistent bleed, after the first reporting dealership group, but next week when they report, institutions will need to dump it if it doesn’t price right for the portfolio. That’s why the November 18 put is perfect. But the SAH and PAG plays are better because of what will be a part of their report
Because after two ok days of declines They are due for a rebound. The new ER’s for SAH, AN and PAG are Tuesday and Wednesday. So late Monday entry would lower your exposure to theta
I bought at or near the money puts using the pre Covid stock prices as a guide to where the stocks would move toward. There was heavily institutional ownership and the implied volatility was low, and The Greeks were not in my favor either. But I knew it would be a slow two day bleed, and there are two unique reports next week . PAG has 40 % of their dealers in the UK, so the FX will be a big hit. Also SAH has 34 percent of their dealers in CAlifornia. So expect more losses next week
Nov 18 SAH 40 put for $2 or less or Nov 18 SAH 45 put for $5 or less Nov 18 PAG 95 put for $5 or less. Can you play any plays out of the money, they most likely will pay more. I choose to play players that are near or in the money.
I exited the 10/21/22 LAD 210 puts. I still have all of the 11/18/22 SAH, AN, and PAG puts in play for the Earnings 10/26 and 10/27. Good luck all!
You are welcome . There is more to be made with PAG SAH and AN , all report next week Tuesday or Wednesday. And they have less institutional ownership. Congratulations!
!remindme 1 month "how are LAD, PAG, SAH, and AN?"
Thanks, maybe double check my LAD/SAH/AN play for this week. LAD reports earnings and I am expecting them to miss earnings big time. I am studying theta on the october 21 expirations. Please let me know what you think
Puts on AN and SAH. Has anyone looked at PAG (Penske Automotive Group)? Shouldn't tit go down as well?
The options chain on SAH is completely illiquid though, and it’s likely they’re going to spin out Echo Park through IPO
The SAH options chain is completely illiquid though I checked them out a long time ago
Agree for CVNA and KMX. But AN and SAH haven't, as mentioned in the Daily discussions
>The car industry is in trouble. Used car prices are plummeting, sales from rental companies are drying up, and delinquencies are on the rise. The big boys (Carmax and Carvana) are struggling to keep their heads above water. Puts on AN and SAH look like a good play here.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|19|**First Seen In WSB**|9 months ago **Total Comments**|369|**Previous DD**|[x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/wwsf9f/time_to_wheel_sofi/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/xpew0a/the_rate_hikes_do_nothing_and_its_not_as_bad_as/) **Account Age**|2 years|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=y37bj8)|**Vote Approve**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=y37bj8) Hey /u/PleasantAnomaly, **positions or ban.** Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit. >TL;DR: Car dealers are fucked. Puts on AN and SAH
I am adding puts forth soy and LAD SAH and AN with every spike
Hey buddy, asked you about AN and SAH on the WSB call yesterday. I like both plays and jumped on board. It’s just impressive how SAH held up again today after cpi came out. Can the market be that blind to the auto industry crisis’s effect of SAH or could it be that we’re missing smth? I
u/Ok_Helicopter_3825 can you update your thoughts on the AN & SAH puts? I went in with you on those.
Thanks, I sent you a chat. Do you mean SAH Nov 18 $40 P for < $1?
AN puts October 21 85 strike price I bought fir .25 Any Nov 18 put under $100 lol SAH Oct 18 $40 put for anything under $1 Nov 18 $35 put anywhere under $1.50 Good luck everyone!
What was the SAH play for 21st of October?
u/Ok_Helicopter_3825 can you outline those SAH & AN plays again? I tried to catch them.
Add AN, SAH, and ABG to that set up and you will print
Here’s the thing with auto stuff- it’s a bubble for sure, but it’s not close to popping. I’ve sold 5 cars this year to different buyers and they’re just buying at higher and higher prices. It’s gonna pop, but good luck timing that. I got burnt with SAH and CVNA puts
I got destroyed in CZR and SAH puts. I put myself in options time out.
Awesome advice, what calculator would you use for the compounding test? I have life insurance for my wife who is a SAH mom, and doesn’t work….
Pull back coming puts on Automotive before the SAAR release. Auto sales makes up 3.5% of total US GDP Tickets to watch: AN ABG LAD PAG SAH GPI CACC
AN, SAH bith going down, no new inventory and yes margin on auction purchases are super low
The Shelter CPI number is closer to 10%. ​ [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAH1](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAH1) ​ And the definition of Shelter and how it is calculated is here: ​ https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/owners-equivalent-rent-and-rent.pdf
[Our society is doomed](https://news.yahoo.com/demi-lovato-aliens-094818944.html?guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALLrdrHFpvWPANQFOdC5OweVek6SAH-T5IoqnWB7F157E7ZjpLcjWcIY8BRz-vh1URhtrPD0wOrMeXgU8eZ-7_mxlzZuFkOeVbNn-aQL8gzvQUZe6j4I0yohAmmlgx8IMOkAUqqxiV9h9QWHntzZ3the10hAxBZV-6NZNJRPgYwL)
"Bottlenecks" is the polite way of washing the issue of massive labor shifts lol. Theres folks looking for work, but they arent looking to work just to pay to work anymore. Married folks reassessed their finances and realized that the cost of childcare and transportation ate up most if not ALL of their incomes, so why would they even bother to keep working instead of doing SAH? Others with kids realized that the instability was bad, so they moved back in with parents to help. Loads of folks are gone from the labor pool for good, even more when you think LOCALLY at how many folks had to straight up move away. And I bet you even with all this inflation, corporations will post profit growth next year too lol. This "inflation" is just a subsidy for their own reckless greed.
3.5 trillion over 10 years in addition to the next trillion+ agenda that will be on the table next year. And the year after that. This is like being married to a SAH spouse who's financial abuse manifests trough compulsive spending and gaslighting.
https://i.imgur.com/E6c8SAH.jpg
I wouldn't touch this dogshit company with a 10 foot pole. Go look at AN, LAN, SAH. All 3 have posted monster 2021's, as all dealers will. Do you own homework.
If anyone is interested I do a daily stock of the day on my substack. Today I’m suggesting tickers: SAH, LAD, and AN
Yeah I've averaged up too. Tendies gonna be SAH-WEEEEEET at the end of this!
SAH moms are on GME now? haha thats hilarious
Last week and the week before. In KMX and SAH. LAD is also very good. CVNA as well. Debating on rental car gang with CAR earnings AH today
Thinking that Carmax (KMX) is a very good play. The chip shortage is killing new car inventories so used car sales are through the roof and the prices are insane. There are some used cars going for more than the sticker price of when they were new. They just had a pretty good earnings beat and dropped from it which always seems to happen with them. Expecting a good bounce back. I may write a mini-DD and post in the daily later. Gonna look at ATM/slightly OTM calls a couple months out and sell into earnings. Other car dealers like LAD, SAH, ABG and AN are likely good plays as well.
KO - Coca Cola. Never bounced back fully from SAH orders. Currently about 20% under ATH. With restaurants, sports venues, and social gatherings on the near term horizon, demand for soda will spike. I know it’s not the sexiest play but KO is a undervalued and high dividend. Should see a ramp up rest of 2020.
I like Overwatch I like RKT I like GME I don’t like SAH
i've been riding the tsla train since thanksgiving - told my dad to buy some when we went to see him and mom for thanksgiving. He never took an interest, ​ Finally yesterday, i get a call from him "just calling to check how you're doing?" ​ "lokks like tesla had a rough day - i had a good day, SAH up, JWN, overall I'm 5.4% for the day" ​ Incredible, but bot more on dip
CNBC WILL I BE ABLE TO SAH HI TO MY DAD YES OR NO!