SVV

Short_Swordsman

TDUP and SVV. Someone will eventually be the Amazon of used stuff, and I figure they’re in good position. Won’t be Amazon sized. But their combined market cap is about 2B right now.

wanderfullylost

SVV and Lumen

Short_Swordsman

SVV. It’s still below its ipo price, but I like management and, having once been a full time reseller, I can tell you that it’s a best of breed kinda business. If you think a chain of thrift stores can reach 10% the valuation of tj maxx (there’s a lot of overlaps) then you should invest in SVV.

iThinkiStartedATrend

SVV going back up. I love that my hedge stock against the economy is popular

iThinkiStartedATrend

Please check out SVV. It’s the largest publicly traded resale store. We are fucked. That’s basically Walmart heading in to Christmas. Can’t have 30 dolls? I hope this winter is short

iThinkiStartedATrend

If it makes you feel any better I’ve been praying for your name since I can remember. Check out SVV. If you would like to join the wheel that is a great place to start

iThinkiStartedATrend

Gents: I’m going to cash out and call it. If I were you I would check out SVV. I will be selling covered calls.

wrestlingchampo

Discount grocery/consumer staple brands (DG, GO, SVV) Mining Gold potentially BTC and other crypto related stocks Depending on whether you think foreign nations will dump treasuries, there's always bond ETFs like TLT and ZROZ VIX There's also The various short leveraged ETFs you could buy like SQQQ or TSLL

iThinkiStartedATrend

If it’s going to be 550 again for a day - then may I please introduce you to SVV

iThinkiStartedATrend

Check out SVV - I’ve been doing calls with them and it’s been good

iThinkiStartedATrend

Thrift stores/resellers. Look at SVV performance since the tariff drop. Resale/thrift/consignment will go up quite a bit if/when inventory runs dry

iThinkiStartedATrend

SVV

Short_Swordsman

TDUP. They’re becoming a service provider to brands through official resale exclusivity contracts, more than a standalone retailer. There is at the moment no successful platform for clothing resale that’s not a marketplace requiring individual users to be both buyers and sellers. I think there will be and I think it will be TDUP. Also SVV. I think a privately owned thrift store can become ten percent as valuable as TJX. SVV is the largest and frankly best. (And about 1.5% as valuable as TJX.) They’re getting screwed by Canada but I think the business is well run and will see that through while growing in the US.

boomboomusa

News then…. VLCN ✅ SVV ✅ JAGX ✅ GAUZ ✅ IVP ✅ ASNS ✅

Stevie_Wow_Wow

SVV is everyone’s first date spot around here. Clothing retailers are all crushing earnings, and they’re next

iBoughtAtTheBottom

SVV is a long play but leaps will pay handsomely. Don’t ignore this potential.

iBoughtAtTheBottom

Trust me I had no idea Savers (SVV) was now public but I can confidently say that way OTM call leaps will print.

theGuyWhoOnlyShorts

Look there are lots of other garbage companies to short. Leave this one they sell alright clothes man. Joby is garbage valuation… take Savers value SVV tons left. This has SEO running and the management is smart so you might get burned.

Electrical-Agency224

Or SVV they’re getting ready for a buyback

Jpais07083

Thrift stores are not the issue that I see with SVV. What I see as the issue is how bad of a company they have become. If you dig a little, you'll see that they've been pissing off a ton of their customers with their management decisions. I have inside information on them that I won't disclose right now, but what I will say, is that I am extremely disappointed with what this company has become in such a short amount of time. I personally am disgusted with Savers Value Village, Inc., I feel they lack morals and are just a downright horrible business. It would be a joy to me to see them fall.

Jpais07083

SVV just opened in the RED. Ouch, ouch, ouch‐--that smarts!

jusjones314

Wool pulling how? Are they like shorting SVV shares or suppressing the price somehow?

Jpais07083

Ok, I believe ARES is pulling the wool over your eyes, that is if you are investing in SVV, a stock that they own something like 88% of, or at least it was that last I saw in the media. I hope that helps answer your question, and remember, my opinions are not financial advice, and I always think doing your own due diligence is very important and highly recommended.

Jpais07083

I've been following Ares Management Corporation, since they are the majority shareholder and owner of Savers Value Village, owners of 2nd Ave Thrift, and I believe that they are using technical analysis to manipulate trades, in order to influence what may, at first glance, appear to be decent short-term technicals, thus creating a gap into which unsavvy investors could be lured. The main theory I have at this moment, is that ARES has a long-term plan of siphoning profits from SVV, in order to pay off the massive debt that they have from acquiring it, and they can't do that if they allow it to fall, especially if investors helped push the price down further. So, that would explain to me not only the reason for the recent trend changes that I am seeing, but also for the end of the day volume on the last trades from both, which to me is interesting as well, and I think that a lot of it has to do with the market caps of both, and how easily it is to transfer wealth from one stock to the other in order to create illusions that inspire the investor decisions that favor them the most, not the investors. In short, I believe that ARES has become quite professional at playing investors like fiddles, specifically by manipulating technical movements, which to me, is a testimony to how low of an IQ the average investor actually has these days. Timing is everything, and I do believe it's high time we made some changes around here. My publications reflect my opinions, all of which are based on my research, and none of them are being provided as financial advice. P.S. You wouldn't believe the BS reasons my publications are getting flagged for. I think ARES and SVV are PISSED OFF.

Jpais07083

Wrenching Suspected for Savers Value Village, Inc. I've been following Ares Management Corporation, since they are the majority shareholder and owner of Savers Value Village, owners of 2nd Ave Thrift, and I believe that they are using technical analysis to manipulate trades, in order to influence what may, at first glance, appear to be decent short-term technicals, thus creating a gap into which unsavvy investors could be lured. The main theory I have at this moment, is that ARES has a long-term plan of siphoning profits from SVV, in order to pay off the massive debt that they have from acquiring it, and they can't do that if they allow it to fall, especially if investors helped push the price down further. So, that would explain to me not only the reason for the recent trend changes that I am seeing, but also for the end of the day volume on the last trades from both, which to me is interesting as well, and I think that a lot of it has to do with the market caps of both, and how easily it is to transfer wealth from one stock to the other in order to create illusions that inspire the investor decisions that favor them the most, not the investors. In short, I believe that ARES has become quite professional at playing investors like fiddles, specifically by manipulating technical movements, which to me, is a testimony to how low of an IQ the average investor actually has these days. Timing is everything, and I do believe it's high time we made some changes around here. *My publications reflect my opinions, all of which are based on my research, and none of them are being provided as financial advice.* P.S. My publications are getting flagged a lot today. That should tell all of you a few things.

Jpais07083

I've been following and posting about Nasdaq's SVV and ARES stocks for several days now, and so far, the stocks are behaving nearly exactly as I had expected. The technicals have been looking prime to me for shorting SVV. Just my opinion. *Also, if you check the stores that they operate under the names 2nd Ave Thrift Store and 2nd Ave Thrift Superstore, you will notice a huge change in public opinion during recent weeks. In my opinion, SVV is going to be super volatile with a high spread and good shorting opportunities, as it appears to me to be on its way downhill from every POV I can look from at this point.

Jpais07083

Lots of selling on SVV? NYSE Nasdaq's Savers Value Village, Inc. (SVV) looks to me like it had a lot of selling volume hit, but if it's majority stake holder is NYSE Nasdaq's Ares Management Corporation (ARES), is it them selling?

Jpais07083

Very interesting. So, if I understand you correctly, you are saying that the future is looking a lot better for ARES than it is for SVV, right? That would make sense to me at least, and it would help to explain further some of the underperforming I am seeing from SVV in comparison to ARES, and in general. Isn't this strategy risky though? Is there a risk that investors might see less value in SVV because of ARES strategy? If confidence was diminished in SVV, wouldn't ARES also suffer a hit? What would all of this mean for SVV in the long-term?

Jeff__Skilling

> The real issue is how does an 80%+ owner exit the position? The only rational way is to sell it to another company. Ares doesn't own Savers because they think their share price will rise and it will enhance their portfolio returns - they're a buyout shop. Their goal is to acquire SVV by levering up as much as possible, streamlining operations to enhance FCF (and hopefully widen margins), use that FCF to hammer down as much debt as possible, exit in 5 - 7 years and use the proceeds to pay off the remaining debt while Ares keeps the remaining cash. It's a textbook LBO, using acquisition debt to amplify cash returns to equity at exit. It's literally how KKR, BX, TPG, APO all rose to be billion dollar PE funds, and Savers is also a textbook buyout candidate for a PE shop.

BetweenCoffeeNSleep

Do you have a specific thesis? SVV looks rough at a glance, but they’ve posted revenue beats in each of their last four earnings reports and have grown their cash on hand. I’m not saying it looks rough, but I do wonder exactly how slow the death spiral may be. When you short, it’s not enough to be directionally correct. Your timing has to be right.

Jpais07083

Hi, I am interested on your opinions regarding Nasdaq's SVV & ARES. In my opinion, SVV looks like a good position to short. ARES has my attention as well, because I am detecting some interesting patterns and correlations between the two. ARES is the bigger of the two, and if they own roughly 88% of SVV, plus SVV is 66% of their portfolio, I think there are multiple complex stretegies that can be thought of and executed here, and if done correctly, to very profitable ends.

MissDiem

I didn't partake in your other posts on this, but am still wondering what you mean by these comments: > After reading their SEC filings, **many inconsistent details are found that don't coincide with their actual business practices**, leading me to think **they have not been honest with investors**, or worse, **they have been completely incompetent**. If ARES continues to support them, they might take a huge financial hit in the next months, and if they don't, I can't see the thrift chain surviving at all. Diving into SVV's debt, cash on hand, assets, revenue, etc, I don't see them in a position that allows them much room for **mistakes, yet they are making them left and right**. What are you meaning specifically? When this showed up in the pipeline I found it interesting but confusing, and I generally don't invest if I don't have at least a decent understanding of what a company does or is about. My sense was that it's a for-profit copy of Goodwiil, possibly poorly run. On one hand, getting free product from people who think they're doing a good deed must be great for costs and margins. But I sense a risk if too many people figure out they're about profit not charity. On the third hand, they can probably take advantage of dirt cheap commercial real estate for their locations and on the fourth hand, if the consumer trade down is a serious as some suggest, maybe it could be boom times for a lower version of TJ Maxx. Seeing all the financial engineering and machinations of their structure, my one second superficial observation would be that the owners are doing a lot of unnecessary financial smoke and mirrors which usually coincides with trying to cash out, exit, or similar.

Jpais07083

Trading has started, and SVV is following the trend I have been seeing, underperforming their majority stake holder, ARES.

Jpais07083

Did anyone else find the trading volume to be really low yesterday for SVV? Volume 312,185 / Avg. Volume 729,900 ?? Should we expect price volatility? Yesterday, I really thought it was going to finish red, but it put up a good fight. I wonder if it's out of gas though, especially after seeing it underperform again.

Jpais07083

The day is going more or less as I was expecting it to for both of these stocks, and I thought SVV was going to be red today, but maybe it had to be green after recent losses. I will keep following it to look for a short opportunity.

Jpais07083

I'm watching ARES and SVV closely today, and I feel like SVV is trying to dip, but it's being tugged upwards because of ARES rising? Is it likely that SVV can still dip if ARES is rising because of its other holdings? Either way, it looks to me like SVV is, yet again, an underperformer in their portfolio.

Jpais07083

Hi, thank you for your input. I am also wondering about that last question you proposed, as well as how a sale could change SVV's valuation.

saudiaramcoshill

SVV is a $4 B market cap company that's what, 88% owned by Ares Capital? Ares Capital and Crescent infused $165 million in equity and $500 million in debt in 2019 and then Ares bought out Crescent for $600 million financed by debt in 2021. So Ares is in to Savers for at most like $750 million, and they IPO'd 12% of Savers for ~$450 million to pay back loans (to themselves). Ares has about $300 million, at most, invested in a position worth $3.5 billion. That's what I'm piecing together from rumors about finances of the deals, since most of them are private. Seems like selling off Savers would incur a huge tax for Ares since the gains are 10x. Also, they have a decent amount of debt, but their TTM interest expense (likely fixed) is ~$80 million against operating income of $190 million. Their margins would have to drop 42% (or 5.5% absolute) for them to be in a challenged position where they'd need to dip into cash on hand or pull on a revolver to finance interest.

Jpais07083

Do you think they will be dropped by their biggest backer? Ares Management Corp NYSE: ARES It seems 66% of their holdings are for SVV, but SVV seems to be underperforming their overall performance, so, why would they keep them? I'm wondering if they will colapse from this.

dudestir127

Savers SVV? The thrift store that I never knew was a for profit business.