TCAF
T. Rowe Price Exchange-Traded Funds, Inc.
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Echoing some of the above with Invest Like The Best, The Compound shows (Animal Spirits, TCAF, Ask the Compound). Also like Prof G Markets and Odd Lots.
https://podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/netflix-reports-why-the-bull-market-has-legs-into-year-end-with-nick-and-jessica-warner-bros-for-s/ The first half of this is a good listen to explain historical sentiment to current market valuations. I’m still bullish, but I’ve started pulling out of slow movers and selling losers to offset capital gains since it’s nearing the end of the year.
To borrow a line from last week's TCAF: crypto is a rounding error in the financial markets. It could disappear tomorrow and not a single thing would change to the system. Worldwide, all crypto combined is worth $4 trillion. That's the size of NVIDIA. Ask yourself: how would the world's financial markets change if NVIDIA went private tomorrow? Answer: it wouldn't. Not a single bit.
I enjoyed TCAF last week when they were trying to figure out what Bessent's motives are because "he's not stupid, but the stuff coming out of his mouth lately is some of the dumbest shit in the world. There's no way he believes the stuff he's saying."
Just fyi that wasn't a proper TCAF episode, just a discussion with CRWD CEO, so it was more of an advert to a certain extent.
Anyone listen to TCAF today? My goodness did CRWD sound like a great long term play.
I like TCAF podcast because of their commentary on this exact issue. Consolidation like we see in the Mag 7 is more of a feature of a bull market, the economy has continued on strong despite the rate environment which can be seen as a good sign of strength, and the consumer hasn’t truly blown through all of their disposable income or savings from COVID. The kicker is that the Fed always cuts a little too late because their indicators are all lagging indicators. And unless they buck that trend, they’ll cut too late and then the problems will begin. So until they start seriously talking about cutting, I’d stay in the market and enjoy the gains.
Last trim went into SPY, QQQ, and TCAF ETFs to diversify more. Plan on doing the same, but MA hits you with a higher LTC gain tax when selling over a million of gain. Will sell more by year end to make sure it's under a million, then rip a little less than a million again in 2025, then try and hedge into 2026. Big gains are great, but trying to be as tax efficient on it is a little daunting.
Watching DAN IVES on TCAF
I recognize the value of contrarian takes. I actually listen to Dan Nathan, Guy Adani, and Danny Moses or Liz Young in their podcast family a bit each week in order to stay connected to bearish perspectives. One of the things that I’ve come to believe strongly in is positioning in consideration of upside and downside possibilities. This is how I’ve landed on looking for upward mean reversion trades. Part of this is aiming to buy low relative to the index. That keeps me out of chasing runners, and it reduces downside if the market turns. Those voices help answer the question, “if things went to the downside, why might that be, and what could it look like?” My issue with Dan Nathan is that he lands on the wrong side of the line between conviction and condescension at times. That should be difficult in that profession, since it’s so hard to be right on a consistent basis. An example of this was his posture recently when on a panel with Savita Subramanian on CNBC, or even his TCAF appearances. I think there is a lot of value in weighing opposing takes. That means being willing to consider both sides.
I got that same sentiment about him. I watch TCAF, What Are Your Thoughts and the other podcasts as well.