MA

splishysplashy35

I don't have any experience with Trevor, so I don't have a opinion about that. I can say im using ledger for about 6 years and im more than happy. About the immediately transfer I would not do that for the fees. I don't how much money you want to spend and ofcource would not share that. But I have a rule that not more than 5k euro on the exchange. I usually transfer round the 2.5k+ to the ledger from the exchange. Once we are good in the bullrun and we are high in the MA I slowly start to transfer back and sell again.

VettaQ

The zero-fee rerun is the control that makes this convincing - it kills the "fees ate the edge" objection in one shot. One addition that would make the luck conclusion formal instead of eyeballed: an explicit multiple-comparisons correction across the family of 75. A best p of 0.24 is about what you expect from pure noise at that family size, and your split-half result (2 of 75 ahead in both windows) is already saying the same thing informally. A deflated Sharpe or even a blunt Bonferroni over the 75 would put a number on it. Question on trial accounting: did parameter variants inside a rule count as one trial or many? A 50-point MA grid per strategy quietly inflates the effective family well past 75 - which only strengthens what you found.

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Post is by: Embarrassed-Ad-7032 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1wp3tyi/i_backtested_75_crypto_trading_strategies_against/ this is the crypto slice of a bigger project testing trading strategies against buy and hold. data is from binance, mid 2017 to march 2025, daily and hourly depending on the strategy, on BTC and a basket of the bigger alts. trading costs of about 0.1% a side get charged on every trade. the benchmark is just holding the same coins over the same period. what got tested: trend following (MA crosses, donchian breakouts), mean reversion, volatility breakouts, momentum across coins, funding rate / carry trades, a few ML classifiers, calendar stuff like the weekend effect and turn of the month, and a batch of the setups that do the rounds on crypto twitter and youtube (pivot bounces, VWMA crosses and so on). results: 8 of 75 beat holding after costs. none of those 8 was statistically significant, the best p value was about 0.24, so not far off a coin flip. the median strategy trailed holding by about 52 percentage points a year. crypto went up so much over this window that being out of the market even part of the time hurt a lot. i reran 67 of them with zero fees and zero slippage and 59 still lost. so it isn't the exchange fees eating you, the signals just didn't beat holding. splitting the window in half, only 2 of the 75 were ahead of holding in both halves. the worst ones were the most active. an hourly random forest direction classifier and an hourly volatility expansion trigger both trailed holding by more than 150 points a year, and daily pivot point bounces weren't far behind. the best two raw results were volatility adjusted momentum across coins and a VWMA cross, about 29 and 23 points a year ahead. both would look great in a screenshot and neither could be told apart from luck (p around 0.24 each). i'm not saying nobody makes money trading crypto. but for the kind of rules you can find written down, holding beat almost everything, and the few that beat holding didn't do it by enough to trust. if someone's selling you a crypto strategy off a backtest, ask how many versions they tried and whether it still wins with fees set to zero. happy to answer questions on the method in the comments *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

sQtWLgK

I suggest you take a Random Walk chart and calculate its 200D MA. You will find those "structural momentum swings" in it too. "Widely accepted" are weasel words; for all we know the entire framework of your approach is meaningless with respect to the underlying dynamics.

BILLYBUTCHER_2

The 237-day average is interesting, but I wouldn't treat it like a countdown clock. If the definition itself is based on the 200D MA, then using the same historical data to predict how long the next run lasts feels a little circular.

khai0001

The consecutive days filter is to prevent any single day pumps/dumps from being classified as a bull/bear market. 200D Moving Averages is a widely accepted and used technical indicator (200D SMA is also used) for long-term market trends. Closing above the 200D MA for 30 consecutive days strongly suggests a structural or at least huge momentum swing in Bitcoin prices which at least back tested on 12 years of data is in line with all the bear/bull markets we have experienced thus far.

Realistic_Essay5441

But still it hasnt gone below 200 MA. So I still feel it wil.go

revanevan7

Thanks! Nice job! 200w MA is always a good indicator, but I just noticed bad news wasn't pushing the price lower anymore. To me that screamed we ran out of sellers. A week later we were at 80k!

SnooShortcuts2235

Immaculate execution, well done! I have 297 shares at $114 in my Roth IRA and 161 shares at $129 in my brokerage. I also have 2,195 shares of MSTY at $24 which I am using the distributions to DCA back into MSTR every week. I'm excited for this bull run into 2029 to see how my whole stack performs! Plan to sell entrie stack sometime in 2029 (constantly keep an eye on the market to see if there are signals to sell before then) and watch the next bear market to full port back in when there are signals to buy. Just curious, did you have a specific signal that indicated to buy back in? Was it regaining 200w MA?

Soulwalrus

It’s about to correct back to weekly 50MA from here so I’m with you we ARE back in the bull but hold strong until the FOMO and leverage is cleared out for the next run up

FitCompetition1804

The 200 day MA has increased since then, it could create a higher low around this area. Add a significant macro like the stock market tanking, and we could see a lower low. Any of this can happen within the next 2-3 months. If it doesn’t we should be good to go.

Vegetable_Stretch69

Danger of a systemic shock next week is increasing. We have Clarity Act voting in the senate, fomc and a very probable rate hike by the BoJ. Historically when the fed increases rates, it's not a single hike but a series of hikes. Depending on how hawkish the outlook becomes and what the market subsequently prices in, two scenarios are quite likely: Capital will flow out of risky assets into safe-haven investments with high yields (bonds), and there could be a major wave of liquidations, particularly in the crypto sector, but also in tech stocks. This, in turn, could trigger a sudden carry unwinding, causing capital borrowed in yen to flow back to Japan (we’re talking about an estimated amount of up to $2 trillion). If that happens, the financial markets will crash—this would be a systemic macro shock in which prices could easily fall below historical support levels (200-week MA, power law, etc.) for an extended period. I’ve been extremely bullish ever since Bitcoin broke through 65k. I’m now out of the market and won’t be ready to re-enter until a higher high is reached on the annual chart. To eliminate the last glimmer of hope for crypto: the vote on the Clarity Act won’t pass. The Democrats would be pretty stupid to hand the Republicans such a political victory right before the midterms.

WiskeyUniformTango


randalthor1980

Check out the weekly chart, positive divergence with rising PPO, bounced off 200 week MA, flirting with breaking out above 50 week MA. Very similar setup was seen in 2023 prior to bull run.

painfulglucose

The 50 week MA is one of those lines that almost feels too simple to work, yet it keeps doing its thing. Watching it on the weekly always gives a cleaner read than all the noise on the lower timeframes. 82-83k acting as resistance-turned-support would be the real signal, until then it's just price floating above a line. Volume confirmation is the piece that's been missing in a lot of these moves lately, without it the pumps tend to fade back into the range.

Hefty_Mongoose691

Been watching BTC around the 50 week MA again and it’s got me thinking. This level seems to matter every single time we get into one of these big moves. On the way down it acted as a really important area and now we’re back above it. BTC is pushing up towards the 82–83k area now. So I’m wondering what everyone thinks… Are we actually seeing the start of a proper change in structure here, or is this just a really strong relief rally before we get another leg down? I’m still not convinced either way. For me the important bit now isn’t BTC pumping another few grand. I want to see what happens when it gets tested properly. Does the 50 week hold? Does 82–83k turn into support? And does the volume actually back the move up? Interested to hear what you guys are seeing because there are arguments for both sides at the moment.

travelhiatus

Said 50 weekly MA needs to break and HOLD which is 80k atm.

longonbtc

You believe that I'm not able to send & receive bitcoin without third parties? Well you are wrong. I assure you that I definitely can send & receive bitcoin without third parties. Read the Bitcoin white paper. Being able to send & receive digital payments without needing permission from anybody and without having to trust any third parties is literally the main purpose of Bitcoin. Billions of people cannot drive cars at the same time, because of that you must believe that cars cannot be used to get from point A to point B. Billions of people cannot ride in airplanes at the same time, because of that you must believe that people can't travel by air. You obviously didn't read my entire comment and you're just looking for someone to argue with. The person I replied to said, "blockchain is the revolution, not any coin." and I replied to them and explained why blockchain is not the revolution, Bitcoin is. Furthermore, a separate on-chain transaction will not be required for each lightning channel being opened/closed in the future. Bitcoin and Bitcoin's second layer protocols are still being developed, and that development never stops. Some of the potential solutions that are currently being developed are channel factories, sidecar channels, inherited IDs, and statechains. I've included links to their papers below. And I'm sure that more potential solutions will be developed in the future. https://nakamotoinstitute.org/static/docs/scalable-funding-of-bitcoin-micropayment-channel-networks.pdf https://lightning.engineering/lightning-pool-whitepaper.pdf https://github.com/JohnLaw2/btc-iids/blob/main/iids14.pdf https://essay.utwente.nl/80780/1/Wijburg_MA_EEMCS.pdf And Bitcoin's block size limit could safely be increased a bit sometime far off in the future, but that would require consensus, so that may never happen.

ElectionRealistic301

those are MA's 5 & 10 high low

Honest-Warning-7116

Yeah, I have similar situation too, then I start to avoid round numbers, always place the limit order a bit above the target, I find out this helps a lot. For instance if the 200 MA sit at 41000 I’ll place a limit order at 42567

Topspeed_PT

No. I use MA50, MA100, MA200, BB and I check the daily/weekdly candles and patterns. When I sold there was 3 red candles in the last 4 weeks and the price was under DMA50 so I decided to sell it all.

FunIcy4223

I have a strong suspicion he’s right we need to break the 50w MA before we can say bull market, most of this pump was driven by short covering ie a short squeeze and the largest one bitcoin has ever experienced in fact, I see a pull back to the low 70s before the rocket launches

Historical_Candle511

Agreed. The probability is fairly high that we reject the 50-day MA and fail to break above the previous high/peak. After (the likely) retracement from here, I will be fully confident that the following uptrend will be the one taking us into the bull market. If we break above 83k on the weekly candle, I would also excitedly say we're heading into the bull market. Either way, we're super close to entering the next macro uptrend, and it's going to be a party!.

Death-0

I just pulled it up EMA’s are lagging I don’t use them for entries just general directional bias. On the weekly timeframe 25 EMa cracked 50 EMA cracked 50 VWMA sitting right on top of it and already cracked it on the daily timeframe. My analysis is levels and magnets based on all the MA’s though we have a long signal to the upside I’m just showing where we’d like to head and actually why not just support resistance or random wicks or structure breaks or even highs and lows. But I’ll continue to update as we go happy to be wrong but I trust my levels

MrKillerKiller_

No. Never buy weakness. Slow declines mean extended downtrend. Crypto is the single worst asset class for extended downtrends. Pro’s enter longs on signs of strength. Eg. a hige sudden green candle breaking resistance and MA’s then pulling back to that resistance and holding it as support. That pullback is where the RR is increased and where longs enter for the wave 3 or wave C bounce. Ignore feelings and assumptions and stick to chart only. The rest is noise and attempts of manipulation. A clear “1-2” setup is irrefutable. Start there

OtherwiseNeat9617

Every cycle has differences and similarities... the relative price it comes back down to in every bear market is the 4 year MA... regardless of USD price. Measure the USD price from low to low.. it always makes a new higher low

daniel2640

The $81K rejection is real. But jumping from “BTC was rejected at the 50-week MA” to “$50K is next” is a pretty big leap. The 50-week MA around $81K is clearly an important resistance level, and BTC still needs a weekly close above the ~$81K–$83K area to confirm a meaningful trend change. But the current data doesn't make $50K the obvious next destination. Spot BTC ETFs have seen roughly $2.5B+ of inflows over the latest six sessions, while CryptoQuant's indicators have shifted strongly bullish. That's not proof that BTC can't fall — it simply means there is significant spot demand that needs to be considered alongside the technical rejection. A rejection at $81K can mean a pullback, consolidation, or another attempt at the breakout. It doesn't, by itself, establish a path to $50K. $50K is a bearish scenario, not a confirmed target. The more interesting question now is whether BTC can hold the ~$75–76K area on a pullback and eventually reclaim $81–83K with a weekly close. If it does, the $50K narrative becomes considerably weaker. If it loses key support and spot demand dries up, then the bearish case becomes much more compelling. Resistance is data. A prediction is an interpretation. Let's not confuse the two.

OtherwiseNeat9617

The thing is.. nobody is saying buy at 80k.. this is the 50 week MA.. you dont buy here because it has more chance of rejection. You buy whenever it trades below the 4 year MA... if you want to look at cycles. Look at the 2017 cycle for the 4Y MA test. Very similar to this cycle.. not as deep or as prolonged as 2021 cycle at the low equivalent. The point we are making is. You had the opportunity to buy under the 4 year MA and DCA around it.. then your average would be close to 60... you didnt do that. Now you're caught in limbo... i can continue my DCA regardless of the price, because I do small daily DCA as well as heavy DCA.. my average doesnt change much even on these pumps

OtherwiseNeat9617

Thats correct.. 70k.. doesnt mean it goes to 40k does it ?? How long would a capitulation to 40k actually take ?? They have no idea, because they're clueless. You are talking about leverage mostly and the 10/10 crash happened when BTC was at 110k plus... we are talking about a 50% move from the 50 week MA in a bear market.. BTC isnt the same as it used to be.. it cant be sold off to nothing anymore

OtherwiseNeat9617

If thats is the case then why would you wait... you are contradicting yourself.. you want to wait for a 10% discount on 60k, when you are saying you'll end up at buying at 80 instead... The BTC cycles are changing slighty. Every cycle is slightly different. Diminishing returns to the upside, almost means Diminishing returns to the downside.... As if you are really saying that... it makes no sense at all. I have an average price of 65k. This cycle and I can bring thay down if it falls. Because I wasnt sidelined. You're admitting to being prepared to pay 50 week MA prices... silly

DanSan369

Accumulate now. 400MA on top of 1D.

Ready-Government-954

Well I'm already heavily allocated but I still think a lower low is possible. The chance of getting to 40k however got a lot smaller these past days. We already broke the 200 D MA which is a pretty convincing signal of a bullmarket if we stay above it, but breaking and staying above the 50 W MA will make it pretty sure we're in a bullmarket. Breaking it will cause me to again allocate a bit more to btc and testing and staying above the 200 D MA will cause me to allocate more although I hope we go lower for my final allocation.

blaivas007

Follow Pareto principle to manage the portfolio. Avoid shitcoins and stick to the big 3. Use GLI, 50W MA, RSI, Fear and Greed index and BTC.D to gauge the public perception and make the decision of whether to buy, sell, or sit on hands. Only make financial decisions on Mondays, and only follow the weekly charts.

Guccimayne

I only got in around the 200 week MA. Won’t add more until it comes back

CarbonKLR

Market maker, plus the 50 MA resistance

No-Anybody2826

It’s about to cross the monthly MA so I would say the usual cycle has begun. Could go to new highs by Jan or could go to 300K by 2028

Ready-Government-954

That's why you start buying partially befoew the price you want. Doesnt matter how sure some people sound of themselves. No one knows for sure whats gonna happen. I was waiting for lower prices too to buy more but I am already heavily allocated. While this last rally happened it became less sure a lower low will occur. That's why I again bought after it convincingly broke the 200 D MA. But be aware a lower low is still possible! Thats why I still have a decent amount of usd left in case see lower prices. Also nothing goes up forever so buy some now and buy some when te dip occurs. Hopefully the dip goes very low.

Kommandant_Milkshake

I think it’s in. My post earlier today going over this got removed for “talking about price” which is ridiculous. Anyway, I think it’s in because BTC has broken through and held above the 200 day MA, this signaled the end of the bear market in the last two cycles. I was hoping for an October low as well but I think that will no longer be the case sadly.

gtwooh

It just hit the 200 MA nothing to see here

NerdyKid1101

It's been so crazy this cycle haha the only other time we've stayed under the 200 week MA is when FTX collapsed so we very well could stay under it for a while but regardless, It's a good sign we've hit bottom.

PatternAgainstUsers

Bitcoin is pristine collateral, it is A) a tool to provide the OPTIONALITY of reducing counter-party risk (this comes with a tradeoff, but for some is an absolute life line when needed), and B) a long-term debasement hedge. Long-term because of it's immaturity as an asset, but this is what solutions like STRC try to give people who want to try and front-run that long-term capability and bring SOME of that functionality forward into the future. The best way for MOST normal, first world people to use BTC right now is to heavily accumulate when it is below business cycle fair values (so, now) and have a long duration view, using it (if comfortable with some counter-party risk) to reduce the rate on their mortgage for example. Actually locking it up, saving it, and getting a financial benefit in the here and now. Bitcoin isn't about changing the government or something, it is about diversifying your risks from debasement - at least on the financial investment side of things. BTC is not a good currency for spending, because it is too valuable for that. Unless you are "SPENDING" (trading) it to buy undervalued (or fair-valued) strong assets to diversify your book at times when BTC is specifically over-valued. This is a bit difficult to do (not that hard though, just plot a 0 to 1 fib between the 2 year and 2 year x 5 MA on a log chart, and when BTC crosses the 0.5 threshold, put in a trailing stop below monthly bullish higher closes). So if you think Apple is cheap or fairly valued at a given time when BTC is ripping... great, go get her tiger... but assets for assets. Dollars are ONLY FOR IMMEDIATE LIQUIDITY, particularly in a crisis.

anonuemus

possible bottom, check the weekly 200 MA, below or around there is a good time to buy. I don't think it's a big mistake to buy in already, but I still expect a leg down, not that much tho.

MrKillerKiller_

It’s an alt coin. Yes. People trade alts. The alt market is dead until BTC pumps off sudden large gains and goes sideways for an extended period of time. Wait til the bear market is over and BTC changes behavior suddenly surging above MA’s and shows a healthy pullback. Signs of strength would increase these dismal probabilities of what we the market is about to go through.

xaviemb

You sound defensive. 2021, 2024 and 2026 are the years that Bitcoin hit $62,000 Narrative? You're the one claiming Bitcoin "lost value if..." while ignoring that the 200-week MA is and always has been trending 30% higher year over year since 2021. But go ahead, and reframe things to your own narrative... I'm sure that's coming next, because you clearly want to suggest Bitcoin is loving value while it's at the bottom of a bear market by comparing it to its top in 2021 - all while it continues to trend upward 30% annually on average ;)

BrilliantAccess7595

I've been watching that 100 week MA for years now, it's uncanny how well it's worked as a signal. People get caught up in the daily noise but that line doesn't lie The hand-drawn arrow on the chart made me laugh, feels like something out of a trading group chat from 2018. Still, that 2023 bounce off it was so clean My only hesitation is how much institutional money has changed the market structure since the last real bear. Not sure if the old patterns hold the same weight when there's ETFs and billions of corporate treasury flowing in I'm gonna start scaling in small once that MA flattens out, no reason to try and nail the exact bottom

MrKillerKiller_

Entry is on signs of strength NOT pushed against resistance or support. Huge sudden green candle above MA’s and the pullback. That pullback will be the actual interesting spot with the best risk/reward calculation. The bear market can bottom and bottom and bottom for months. Guessing we are at lows is noob trader words. You want to see the actual evidence of strength and make sure the probabilities calculated and are measured leaning your way.

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Post is by: Fair_Cookie7527 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1vng019/why_4h_momentum_outperforms_standard_1d_breakout/ When BTC trades \~9% below its 200-day moving average, most trend-following strategies get chopped to pieces trying to catch daily breakouts that fail. In backtesting 6+ years of data, we found that switching to a relative-strength 4H momentum engine specifically during bearish regime filters (when BTC < 200d MA) cuts drawdown by over 30%. It scans the universe for short-term relative strength, holds for a fixed 3-day window, and exits regardless of noise. Curious how others here handle regime filtering when macro direction is flat/down? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

PearPuzzleheaded4633

200 w MA is cope. uttered by people just before they capitulate and sell. like cramer

PearPuzzleheaded4633

damn, i should have bought blockbuster stock at the 200 w MA, how stupid of me.

PearPuzzleheaded4633

200 w MA means nothing

kardanokid

200W MA - Cheap BTC Cold Card Hack was the FTX of this cycle, BTC still didn't dump BIP 110 was outcast by miners.

Ready-Government-954

I am waiting for 67-69k to go short. So it can take the liquidity there and also normally btc makes a structure of higher highs before going down. So 67-69k would be the fake breakout before going down again. Also it's closer to the 200 D MA and I think if we break that the trade is invalidated and the bullmarket might start.

BeautifulSeason8387

This is will be important when you reach the 300MA. Reach the 200W MA mean nothing actuality if the cycle aren't broken.

Sad_Experience_2516

I think “zone, not signal” is probably the better way to look at it. The part about sellers running out matters more than the MA itself is what I’m watching now.

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Post is by: Sad_Experience_2516 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1ve7iqq/btc_is_testing_the_200week_moving_average/ BTC: \~$62.9K 200W MA: \~$63.8K Ratio: 0.99x Bitcoin is currently sitting around its 200-week moving average, one of the most watched long-term indicators in crypto. Historically, major cycle bottoms have formed around this zone. But history doesn’t guarantee repetition. In 2022, BTC spent months below the 200W MA before recovering, so this should be viewed as a zone rather than a perfect bottom signal. The question: Are we seeing long-term accumulation levels again, or is there still one more capitulation event ahead? Bull case: * 200W MA holds * sellers lose momentum * accumulation continues Bear case: * BTC loses this level * support turns into resistance * deeper correction follows Is the 200W MA still one of Bitcoin’s most reliable cycle indicators, or has the market structure changed? UPDATE： A few days later, BTC has moved back above the 200W MA. But after reading the comments here, I think the more interesting question isn’t whether this line “holds.” The sample size is tiny, we’ve only had a handful of meaningful 200W MA tests. So I’m starting to see it more as a zone than a bottom signal. What matters more is whether sellers are actually getting exhausted, and who’s absorbing that supply. This cycle also has a different market structure: spot ETFs, institutional flows, OTC desks, and deeper exchange liquidity weren’t really part of previous tests in the same way. I’ve been looking at the exchange side too. MEXC’s latest PoR showed BTC reserve coverage around 281%, vs. 269% previously. Obviously that doesn’t predict price, but it’s another reason I’m more interested in liquidity and where the actual buying capacity sits than in the MA itself. So the next test seems pretty simple: If BTC retests the 200W MA and holds it from above, the accumulation case gets stronger. If it loses the level again and turns it into resistance, the bear case is still alive. Maybe the 200W MA isn’t the signal. Maybe it’s just the zone where we find out whether real buyers show up. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

ninenulls

I agree with the 200W signal but I'm probably going to wait a few weeks. Just because we're at 200W MA doesn't mean the price won't go below it for awhile. We're also on the edge of everything becoming more expensive because of gas prices

rechtim

Trying to time the absolute bottom is a fools errand, now is the time to DCA and accumulate (when we're trading on or around the 200W MA)

Glass_Lane_Mirror

Spot ETFs didn't exist for any of the previous 200W MA tests. The 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022 tests all happened in a market dominated by retail + leveraged capital. Now there's a new class of buyer institutional allocators with fixed rebalancing schedules, OTC desks, and custody-first positioning. They don't trade the 200W MA, but their flows create a structural bid that didn't exist before. This doesn't mean the level can't break. But if it holds, the "why" might have less to do with the MA's historical significance and more to do with a fundamentally different market structure under the hood.

eris-discordian

If it is under the 200MA, it is below fair price. You don't need to buy at the exact bottom to make money off the cycle.

Upset-Guard383827

The 200W MA hasn't lost its value—it has lost its certainty. In today's market, macro liquidity may matter more than any single technical level. Confirmation still beats prediction.

Rare_Inflation3178

Still relevant, but I wouldn’t treat it as a magic bottom line. A clean reclaim with stronger spot demand would matter more than simply touching the 200W MA. Market structure has changed, so the reaction around the level is probably more important than the level itself.

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Post is by: Sad_Experience_2516 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1ve7iqq/btc_is_testing_the_200week_moving_average/ BTC: \~$62.9K 200W MA: \~$63.8K Ratio: 0.99x Bitcoin is currently sitting around its 200-week moving average, one of the most watched long-term indicators in crypto. Historically, major cycle bottoms have formed around this zone. But history doesn’t guarantee repetition. In 2022, BTC spent months below the 200W MA before recovering, so this should be viewed as a zone rather than a perfect bottom signal. The question: Are we seeing long-term accumulation levels again, or is there still one more capitulation event ahead? Bull case: * 200W MA holds * sellers lose momentum * accumulation continues Bear case: * BTC loses this level * support turns into resistance * deeper correction follows Is the 200W MA still one of Bitcoin’s most reliable cycle indicators, or has the market structure changed? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

newMoneyStyle

500 MA rarely gets touched in a bull run tho, you might just be sitting on cash forever. dca hits different when you actually follow through

LetWinnersRun

So you’re setting aside the amount that you’d DCA but waiting for price to cross below 500 MA to buy?

SerenityCerulean

Since the peak of October 2025, what confirmed the bear run was the price closing below 50 MA in November 2025

PeaceAgitated1978

Well you're talking about? Rsi, MA, ? That kind of stuff,? My go to for trend following is ATR.. and EMA in fast TF.. normal or SMA in slow TF.. like daily or weekly even monthly ( though that one usually stays in normal MA) look up ATR channels.. they're interesting if you got the right settings.. from 12h candles to weekly one's.. you can find nice reactions zones.. it's my take on it .. gold and BTC mainly for longer trends following.. you need quicker reactions if you go with others crypto assets..

System_Constructor

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Ollie_639

Not really a regret, but I wish I were older. I was tracking Bitcoin throughout its 2022 lows. I was a uni student at the time with 0 capital to buy, which was really frustrating because I saw what was coming. I bought what I could, but I couldn't buy life-changing amounts. Now we are in the same position and I have an actual salary, so you can bet your ass I'm accumulating like crazy at the 200 MA. But Bitcoin is maturing so I don't see the upside being as crazy as it once was!

Thomasball417

No ones catching a falling knife by DCA. Actually the opposite… “catching a falling knife” would be going all in at 60k (previous ath) because bitcoin rarely dips below previous cycle ath. Instead, start building your long position slowly, otherwise you’re completely out of buying power to take advantage of potentially lower prices. Sure we’re still under the MA’s, its a bear market, but why tf would I wait to flip bullish and buy once price if back above MA’s? You buy when there’s blood in the streets. Not go all in, but build a long position with plenty of capital behind. Sorry i just think your opinion is objectively wrong and you’ll hear DCA as a fantastic strategy far more often than not. You’re probably the first person i’ve heard to call it a “losing strategy.”

Smiling_Jack_


PatrolPortfolio

I have a dynamic DCA setup where it doubles my purchase if its lower than 200 week MA. This occurs weekly.

Hour_Flounder1405

I bought at 110 (after the all time high peaked at 125K). I sold at 98K (all of it). And measured in again at 58K. I don't own a crystal ball, but I know when my trade performance is screaming: "take action and stop being hard headed". So I listen to that ...it's not hard to know when your trades are horrible. You P/L record PROVES IT. but how do I KNOW when to get back in, when to get out? 200 MA MACD RSI sure those TA indicators can give you "SOME" insights. but they are NOT the predictors. For bitcoin, which is now a global asset, traded on every major classic trading exchange, and hedge funds and even with some nation state central banks trading it and buying it for a "reserve". It behaves now, quite correlated to the overall global market. In particular the tech sector, specifically NASDAQ. Bitcoin IS a tech "stock". It is also subject to the same drivers. interest rates, war and crisis, uncertainty, gold prices, nasdaq performance, S&P and DOW performance. So you have some correlations ..and of course, transparently you can actually see the ETF's failed miserably. That WAS TELLING. now there is more to this than even those fundamentals. specifically. THE POWER LAW. Look into this. I have. Albeit a little late to avoid making foolish trades I mentioned above. Here are the current figures. I'll start with the most important and immediate levels Lower Bounds (solid hard floor): 58700 (does this sound familiar? We just hit that and it went just slightly lower...a rounding error). That already happened. If you believe in the POWER LAW and understand how to calculate it, then we already had a floor for bitcoin. (but THIS ONLY APPLIES TO BITCOIN...don't even try that for etherium or any other coin. For etherium, use metcalfe's law...do the calculation but also understand that eth has broken down and violated metcalfe's law numerous times. However, BITCOIN has NEVER broken down and violated THE POWER LAW! It's not magic. it's just a very good way to measure price bounds for bitcoin. regression: this is 165,000. This is "fair value". This is where we are headed next. There is no frame of reference for time to hit this level. No one knows. But that is the current fair value regression. It will definitely mark AT LEAST that level in the next leg up. and the next level and understanding of the POWER LAW explains why Upper Bounds (cycle top, peak exuberance) - 582,000. This is the specific level of the next cycle all time high. Again, like regression level, there is no time specifics for this level to get hit. No one knows. But that is the cycle top. It will act as resistance. You will definitely want to take profit at or just below that level. notes: these figures are based on the ENTIRE data set of prices (absolute) for every single 10 second interval of bitcoin since the genesis block originated in a open public trading condition. These values DO CHANGE OVER TIME AS BITCOIN PRICES CHANGES AND MORE DATA POINTS ARE ESTABLISHED. also noting with emphasis: because we have hit the hard floor of support (lower bounds = approx 58,000), our next level IS regression (165K). When that level happens and it will, we recalculate THE POWER LAW including the new data points. And thus we will furnish a new set of LOWER, REGRESSION and Upper levels. But for now, we can depend on the levels here based on prior data. This has been incredibly accurate since the origination of the first genesis block was traded as bitcoin. It has never, not once violated the power law. (other crypto have failed miserably to follow any such power law with etherium only holding about a .58 correlation to metcalfe's law, proving there are no good mathematical formula or theories of past performance of ETH upon which to determine three dependable trading levels in the long term. (or the short, arguably). bitcoin is king for a reason. it's mature, limited in supply with only 1 more million to be mined between now and 2040 (approx). this feature makes is not only popular and understandable in terms of limited supply and comparison to a store of value (like gold), but mathematical formulas and theories such as THE POWER LAW prove that it conforms to a correlation of volatility that is dependable enough to be profitable for the long term trader. (not the short term day trader, no sir) You are welcome. Have a happy trading season and don't get greedy. It's not bitcoin that will punish greedy traders...it's market makers. Help them along by trading bitcoin with the POWER LAW and they look favorably on your participation. Go hog wild and fight against the trend...and you get rewarded with nuts in your face. God Bless America

SerenityCerulean

Maybe it's not a bottom but it would be stupid to sell. We are literally at 200MA, that screams accumulation.

NerdyKid1101

I've stopped focusing on dollar amounts and started focusing on the 4 year cycle/200 week MA.

PatrolPortfolio

Yes but no? It’s automatic timing the market, not manual payment. No emotion, just statistics. I have it set based on 150 week MA.

NerdyKid1101

Technically, the beginning of October should be the bear market bottom but honestly, being under the 200 week MA, now is a GREAT time to buy.

deltamark_btc

depends when you're asking. btc wicked below the 200-week MA (\~$61,300) this morning on 4x normal volume and recovered in a few hours. that's not a gradual slide, that's a hard flush that got absorbed fast. historically that pattern tends to mark short-term bottoms rather than continuation. not saying load the boat. but if you were waiting for something that looked like capitulation, that was this morning.

YogSothothIsTheKey

No,grazie che mi hai dato ragione pagliaccio,io non posso sapere che salirà ma neanche tu puoi sapere se scenderà ancora come non lo può sapere nessuno,quindi questo per quanto ne sappiamo può essere il bottom.Tu guarda caso hai messo un time frame ampio senza alcuna media mobile.Visto che ti piacciono così tanto i time frame ampi e non credi che i time frame più bassi che stanno rompendo progressivamente le medie mobili EMA e MA abbiano valore,allora ti metto qui il time frame mensile che è tra i più ampi che puoi guardare così puoi vedere come sia media mobile MA 50 che la EMA 60 stanno indicando che questo è il bottom. https://preview.redd.it/86mdiuwv88bh1.jpeg?width=2400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1d3e5fb8e69514787b3dbe0c00119aba45e0a228

Beginning_Ask_9930

Always watch USDT.D. It's tether dominance and works inverse of the market. Use a 20,50,90, 200 MA. Test simple and exponentialThe bands and RSI will help a bit with movement but after time you will see the magic. Watch the 200 Day crossings. 30 AND 45 Minute are telling for breakout or breakdown. Learn the movements of this chart. Overlay BTC or any major coin and you will see how it mirrored in reverse. I will be clear, spikes and weekends are still tough.Jackson Hole last august ripped on Friday and dumped on Sunday. It's the game. Trends it works. USDT.D

titsngiggles69

I'm still a novice, but here are some lessons I've learned: 1) BTC is king. As BTC goes, so goes the crypto market. I am a paramecium riding on the back of a flea, riding on the back of a dragon, and I can only make money predicting where big (smart) money goes. 2) BTC has the four year cycle baked into the algorithm thanks to halving. Big money also knows this. 3) zoom out - on the daily chart, the 200 day MA & 50 day EMA trend lines, as well as the 28 day MA & 7 day EMA have been helpful to me, comparing past cycles. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but it's pretty darn close. I used to catch falling knives and hodl with hopium, fearing short-term capital gains taxes, but sitting through two cycles made me realize I missed out on a lot of potential earnings.

b1mm3rl1f3

It'll likely break below the 200MA support with a quick 4H wick or flash crash before finally bottoming out. BTC should be $250k+ by 2028

delphiquant26

The sentiment cycle is one of the most reliable indicators we have. When bear posts dominate the feed, it's usually closer to a bottom than a top. The 200-week MA holding has historically been a strong accumulation signal — though timing the exact bottom is always the trap.

LarryBlured

For me “bottom is in” = weekly HH+HL, reclaim/hold 200W MA, OI flush with flat/neg funding, MVRV/SOPR back >1, Puell + Hash Ribbons turning up—then I only touch small leverage with invalidation under that HL.

Nrs_Vecna

BTC has dipped below ıt's 200 week MA before. It will dip again, shortly but surely. Waiting for that. Dont tell me to DCA and shit, i am not an investor, i am a gambler, this is what i like.

OtherwiseNeat9617

What are the hell are you on about ??? Its the power law trend... you are clueless... 4 year MA and 6 year MA are in the same trends.

Educational_Cable405

Calling any three indicators "unbreakable" is the part that makes me nervous. Every cycle people anchor on a metric that worked beautifully until it didn't. The 200 week MA, the rainbow chart, NUPL bands, they all held until a macro shock or an ETF or a halving changed the supply dynamics underneath them. On-chain data is genuinely useful for context, but treating it as a law instead of a probability is how people end up overleveraged at the wrong moment.

FnAardvark

Can you tell what the market is going to do? Do you know when there's going to be a dip, or how deep it will be? Look at the 200 week MA. It's sitting at 62k right now approximately. That means if you bought every week for the last 200 weeks, your cost basis would be approximately 62k right now. If you want to try your luck timing the market, then go ahead, but calling a proven strategy "brainless" is a horrible take.

indomitus1

DCA. Bitcoin will drop further. It's at the 200MA on the weekly and historically, it drops below and stays there for a while before resuming up. Entirely up to you

Patient_Craft2195

Smart instinct — this is a relief bounce, not a trend change. Why it ran: * RSI hit 24 (oversold extreme) → mechanical bounce * $1.7B in liquidations on the $60k break → short squeeze going back up * Stop hunt below $60k cleared longs, then ripped shorts What's bearish about it: bounce is on **declining volume**, 13/15 daily MAs still in sell. So this looks like a liquidity grab, not new buyers. Levels that matter: * **$63-64k:** must close above on volume to break bearish daily trend * **$62,800:** 200-week MA (the historical floor) * **$59,100:** recent low — break = next stop $55k * **June 17 Fed meeting:** the actual catalyst Real question: are you trying to swing trade this or DCA through the zone? Different strategies for the same data

_SlipperySalmon_

I hope they aren't trolling cuz it's hilarious if their plan is to get super bearish AFTER we hit 200 week MA

LionRivr

Just do the 200 week moving average. Is it going up? BTC is up. Is BTC below 200 week MA? It’s a good deal. Buy.

Hollowpoint808

We will know in a couple of weeks into October. If we close below the 200 MA there’s a possibility. But the 50’s range is a safe bet definitely will DCA in that range or below.

Traditional-Fan-9315

4 out of 4 bear markets the market has hit the 200MA and created a bottom. This is most likely near the bottom.

Ok_Golf_6467

Buying at BTCs 200 MA is typically always a good long term play

That-Equivalent8515

Bitty has been fighting the 200 week MA. Why aren't you buying?

slacknoise8

Not selling when it breaks the 200D MA cloud and not buying when it breaks it up

Fine-Marketing-8134

Bitcoin is potentially going to the weekly MA300 which it touched in every bear market.

Low-Method3448

I think we see above giant bounce at 60k or even 61k at the 200W MA. Remember, the 200W MA has NEVER trended down

_SlipperySalmon_

This advice sucks. You can analyze past patterns and then draw projections of what COULD likely occur.... Fact is, every bear market we go below 200 week MA and it's about to happen again. Then the next cycle people will get burnt ignoring it. Rinse and repeat. I understand you can't 100% assume it'll happen, but this outright denial of the facts is not helpful. In fact, I think it's probable that many ppl introduced to bitcoin sell off at a loss and never buy again because they only listen to the constant echochamber bull narratives

Strong_Trade8549

Waiting for it to drop below the 200 week moving average, then I will buy. I am currently short until it gets to the 200 week MA.