MA

Revenantjuggernaut

Whats dialing the numbers in mean??! Cuz I know for different coins BTC example they use different MA numbers

Revenantjuggernaut

I’ve seen for BTC they use different like 50 MA

toqchista4

# I built my own trading bot in Python I’ve been experimenting with automated scalping bots that focus on adaptability rather than static indicator signals. Instead of relying on fixed EMA/MA crosses or RSI 30/70 thresholds, the system adjusts parameters dynamically in real time. For example, in trending markets, RSI boundaries shift upward, allowing the bot to follow momentum more naturally. In non‑trending conditions, it reverts to a more static state but remains ready to adapt. Another key element is diversification. I run multiple bots with different profiles - some aggressive, some conservative, some focused on shorts, others on longs. They operate across different timeframes (1m, 3m, 5m, 15m) and use varied risk allocations. The idea is similar to hedge‑fund style portfolio diversification: when one profile struggles, another balances it out. The architecture is written in Python, around 5k lines, with persistence handled via JSON so the bots can recall state after downtime. Risk management is built in: each bot only uses a small fraction of capital, gradually laddering positions and adjusting older entries mathematically to improve exit probability. I’ve had this system running for over a year, including during volatile periods, and it has remained resilient. What I find most interesting is how the adaptive RSI logic and multi‑bot diversification interact — sometimes one bot closes early, while another rides the trend longer, creating a natural hedge. [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLmMfpnGuK0): [bot's files](https://www.mediafire.com/file/38azm0o5h36ydfq/Trading_bot_Bybit_API.rar/file)

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is trading at $589.50, showing short-term downside momentum as it remains below its MA-20 and MA-50 but above the long-term MA-200 support at $557.38. Mixed momentum signals and oversold conditions suggest potential for a rebound. BCH is expected to trade between $570 and $620 in the coming week, with a 75% probability of price increase if it holds above $570 support. Key resistance is at $616.45, and breaking this level could lead to further gains. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

ADHD-Developer

Not necessarily, if it doesnt get down there u can wait for price to cross 50W MA upwards (2 week confirmation) and get back on the bull bus

ADHD-Developer

Its not about 4yr cycle.. i don’t actually follow that, i just follow fair price value .. you know what a moving average is ? Its an average price, 200 W MA is a large data set of 200 weeks of price movement, ide rather buy the average on the longterm than buying the top on short term.. thats it really

ADHD-Developer

200 W MA .. price always goes down their even on big instruments like S&P , buying and holding at a higher price is a scam

MemeyOreos

honestly respect the discipline. everyone fomoing into random levels while youre waiting for the 100 day MA is the difference between trading and gambling. if it holds there SEI usually follows BTC structure pretty clean too

Arijan101

Where in your post did you specify you were shorting? You wrote that the 100 day MA($90.5k) is a good buying spot to place a buy order.

Enough_Angle_7839

Good approach. Focusing on real support levels instead of reacting to every dip is exactly the right mindset. The 100-day MA around $90.5k is a logical decision zone. Either price shows clear acceptance there, or the market confirms weakness and moves toward the next major level at the 100-week MA near $87.2k. Leverage definitely plays a role too — too many early longs often just delay a proper move. There’s a useful breakdown of how current liquidation positioning could affect these levels here: [https://btcusa.com/liquidation-map-signals-potential-short-squeeze-in-bitcoin-and-ethereum/]() Risk management first, always.

Either_Junket6500

I don't look for one specific thing. BTC doesn't hold on moving averages like more stable instruments do, it can look like it's broken them only to reverse. Wick rejections are a good indicator when they happen. I usually switch to a lower time frame, like the 1h and try to buy when that's showing support/resistance as well. For example, this short I opened, I watched it test the 100 day moving average, switched to 1 hour chart, all the short term MAs crossed below the 100, it went cleanly below the 100 hourly MA and I sold. My stop loss above the peak and target was 50 day moving average. I closed a bit at $92k and I've closed the rest now, it was pretty close to my target and I don't want to chart watch today 😅 I've got some price and movement notifications set that'll tell me when to look out for my next trade.

Sea-Environment-5938

Solid take. Too many people confuse a red candle with a "crash" and jump into leverage before price even finds real support. Watching the 100D MA and waiting for confirmation and setting a stop below is way more disciplined than trying to catch every dip. Curious what you’re using for confirmation volume, wick rejection, or a reclaim/close above the MA?

StopBitchinStartLivn

If the chart surfs the 10-20 I will not necessarily use it as a setup. I’ll use it as an indicator of longer term trends but I’m looking for further acceptance as well. I currently only trade US stocks that already have momentum, not necessarily speculative cryptocurrency. For my trades I’ll risk 1% portfolio (I may even decrease to 0.75% here) and base my position size on an appropriate support level / stop loss if there is one applicable. If trades are successful I trail my profit on a rising 10MA or 20MA if the stock is more volatile

Either_Junket6500

I'm currently shorting. *Queue gasps, mocking and warnings* 😂 The 50 and 100 daily moving averages have both moved below the 200 and the recent daily peak faltered at the 100 day moving average. I'm not saying it's going to crash, or keep going down, but I'll be watching closely if it gets to the 50MA. It's a high reward to risk ratio trade.

Glittering-Health889

Low percentage above the 200 day MA signals washout, not guaranteed upside, polymarket pricing usually reflects that alts are a conditional trade

ButtBooties

Remember bois, don't FOMO, stick to your plan. However, if you see BTC break above the 50 week MA \~102k, consider throwing your plan out the window.

Ok-Cardiologist2945

Still too high compare to 100MA and 200MA

SaltySn0w

It's over dude, if in any best case imaginable we could make some sort of double top. But propably not! Small pump into 100sh maybe and the market rolls over. We have Gaussian channels turning read on multiple time frames, we got a incredible bearish divergence in the RSI, we gut CMU turner red on the 2 Month, we got a 2 day death cross 200/50 MA, Stochastic RSI 1 Month is super low, 2 month turned sharply down. See you at the next bottom in a few month collecting Bitcoins

WEM-BenjaminGrahammy

You’re absolutely right: In a BTC bull (e.g., 150k/200k/1M+), fixed BTC principal could echo this—USD payments rise faster than house value, eroding equity monthly. Borrower “owes more” in dollars despite paying down, risking underwater scenarios (house worth $500k but payments hit $10k/mo). No one rationally sticks with that without hedging. It flips the crises (strong BTC appreciating vs. weak local fiat), but outcome could be similar: “financial suicide” for unhedged borrowers, plus higher default risk for lenders if collateral lags. But key differences/mitigations in this BDM setup: • 365-day MA smoothing: Lags rapid spikes (unlike instant CHF shocks), so payments rise gradually—time to hedge/refinance/exit. • 0% interest vs. usury: Total repaid is fixed BTC (no compounding doubles/triples like 7% fiat loans). Appreciation “replaces” interest, but only bites in bulls—and for BTC maxis, it’s a feature: borrow “cheap” early BTC, repay in inflated USD while holding BTC to hedge. • Borrower bet: Yes, it’s betting BTC stays stable/declines relative to house/income (or you hedge aggressively). Not for fiat-only folks; suits those viewing BTC as superior money. • Shared risk: Lender bears bear markets (payments drop), borrower bulls—but collateral (house) gives lender recovery option. It’s not mass-market safe—definitely riskier than stable fiat loans, and could worsen “burden” in hyper-bulls without caps/floors on MA adjustments or BTC collars. The anti-usury goal is ethical lending via BTC’s strength, but your point nails why it needs strong hedges/default protections to avoid crisis repeats.

WEM-BenjaminGrahammy

A lender could buy BTC, hold it, and get full appreciation with zero credit risk or hassle. That’s often the simplest play. But this Bitcoin-denominated mortgage (BDM) appeals to lenders who want to: • Deploy capital productively now (e.g., help someone buy a house today) instead of waiting. • Earn a return tied to BTC’s growth while providing real utility (liquidity to borrowers). • Use the house as collateral for protection—if default happens, foreclose and sell the property to recover value. • Avoid explicit interest (riba) for ethical/religious reasons, while still benefiting from BTC’s historical appreciation vs. USD (in bull/base scenarios, lenders see big USD profits from the fixed BTC principal repayments). It’s not risk-free (credit/default risk exists), but the collateral + MA smoothing make it more balanced than pure spot lending. Many prefer passive HODLing, but for those wanting to lend ethically without charging interest, this bridges the gap.

WEM-BenjaminGrahammy

Thanks for the solid critique—fair points all around. 1. Lender could just buy BTC instead?Totally valid—no credit risk if you HODL. But this setup lets the lender deploy capital now (fund a house purchase) while still capturing BTC appreciation through fixed BTC principal repayments. It’s productive lending vs. passive holding, with the house as real collateral for default protection. 2. Borrower defaults anyway?Default risk exists in every mortgage, but the 365-day MA smooths volatility so payments don’t spike wildly like spot BTC would. In bull runs, payments rise gradually (and borrowers can hedge with BTC). In bears, payments drop—burden shifts to lender. Still 0% added cost vs. traditional 6-7% mortgages that double/triple the principal over time. 3. Pricing borrowers out / favoring savers?The goal is flipping the script: BTC’s expected appreciation becomes the lender’s return without explicit interest/usury. Borrowers get true 0% cost access to capital; lenders get compensated by BTC’s growth (historically strong vs USD). In a pure BTC future, it’s just wallet-to-wallet with no riba at all. It’s not perfect—needs legal/tax work and risk modeling—but it’s a bridge idea to make lending halal/ethical (I’m not Muslim btw) while leveraging BTC’s properties. House collateral helps on credit risk. Does that shift the view at all, or still a non-starter for you?

ardus666

What's the current 200w MA?

-irx

There is no timeframe for you question, the markets are chaotic and unpredictable. But we will probably test the 21MA in the next 1-3 weeks. We also should see if the latest run up is impulsive or corrective. These only gives some more probability that we are in a bear market or not, Once we go below 75k then we can say with very high probability that it's the bear market.

MaMu_1701

Sorry. 50 week MA.

MaMu_1701

Not out of the woods yet. Hold your horses. Retest of 50MA rally very common in early bull. If we pass 50MA without major rejection however…

FastVideo9700

How do I find out 200 MA?

ADHD-Developer

Sell everything and buy back when btc is at 200 week MA. Simple and profitable

-irx

Bear market is not confirmed. If we can't climb above 21 weekly MA (which is around 100k currently) or if we go below april low (75k), then we can start talking about bear market.

Th3onib

Were technically still in a bull run, altho we are at the end of it, BTC has liquidity around 108k, so we might pump there n then that's it. The way you know when the next bull run is, go to BTC on monthly time frame, take your % ruler tool, and spread it from the top to -77% and the next run will be after we bottom around 40-30k. I suggest learning basic technical analysis, you do not need to spend any money, there is enough free info out there , learn about MA EMA SMA cross overs on big time frames then go back in time on the chart to see what happens when crosses happen. Good luck

coinfeeds-bot

tldr; Chainlink (LINK) has broken its 21-day moving average for the first time since summer, signaling potential upward momentum for altcoins in the next 2-3 months. Analyst Michael van de Poppe highlights this as a positive development, with historical data suggesting similar MA breaks often precede 20-50% rallies in altcoins. However, sustained growth depends on Bitcoin stabilizing above key levels, as altcoin strength remains fragile without a Bitcoin breakout. *This summary is auto generated by a bot and not meant to replace reading the original article. As always, DYOR.

Smooth_Imagination

Yeah it still happens all the way down to lower timeframes, the 50 and 200 MA and EMA levels are common ones that affect short term movements.  Liquiquidity sweeps will naturally mirror so you have both largely agreeing. 

Smooth_Imagination

If you pay attention to key moving averages on higher time frames you can see BTC is actually testing the 50 SMA.  It wasnt simply liquidity sweeping, price movements test price level hypotheses - in this recent periods case "is BTC worth the valie at a key MA?". It gets there and if the market says yes, it breaks and hold above flipping resistance to support, then it tests the next key level as determined by various methods used by significant numbers of traders. If the hypothesis "is BTC worth this much?"is rejected it retests recent lower support. Momentum may carry it below that, then the hypothesis is asked again, abd it will tend to revent back. Once it rejects a lower price the higher hypothesis will be retested. Momentum also plays a role in the shorter time frames.  Look at the 50 MA on the daily chart, everything is now clear. 

ardus666

It will hit the 200w MA in August and start rising after October 2026.

thecryptoguide13

The 200-week MA is the ultimate historical floor, but the current institutional bid depth has likely shifted that baseline much higher for this ccle

Kalaazam

Actually best time to buy would be when we go back to the 200 week moving average and or below, which is around $67K right now. Thats my signal to buy in not because its October 2026, we might be down at the 200 week MA by then maybe or maybe not

VariatCA

That was a pretty monster green candle of fresh Longs that just single-handedly pushed it back over $88k https://imgur.com/a/woUM4MA That will surely piss off the shorters for the rest of the day, because it only took another 10 minutes for an extra $1 Billion in shorts to show up to bring it down to 87.6k. The fuckery is on full-display this morning lol, even with a green day yesterday and currently today for stocks, they're still trying *so hard* to allow BTC to follow suit.

Zealousideal_Rain_79

BTC has dipped below the 50-week MA before and quickly reclaimed it within days, that alone hasn’t ended cycles. What matters is context. Historically, once you’re past Q4 of the post-halving year and BTC fails to reclaim the 50-week MA, that’s when the cycle is effectively over. A brief dip with a fast recovery is not the same thing.

OnChainSpecter

BTC has dipped below the 50-week MA multiple times in past cycles without ending them. Context matters more than a single indicator.

ROUCHBEN

TA can be useful for context, but it’s never certainty. Levels like the 200 MA matter to traders, yet price often moves before confirmation. That’s why for most people, position sizing and DCA matter more than trying to time every move.

riscten

Isn't a golden cross when 50-day MA crosses above 200-day MA? 50 is still far below 200 rn.

SnooMachines7409

You're claiming that some UTXO sales from the last week are representative of market manipulation. Coin days destroyed (CDD 30 day MA) reached an all time high of 40 million at the end of November 2025. The last time CDD was this high was in Aug 2017. In fact, there have only been 2 times in the history of Bitcoin when CDD reached above 40 million. If that is not old coins being destroyed, what is causing CDD to spike? Also, in the Hodl wave charts, > 1 year age band coins have decreased from 12.2 to 11.6 million coins in the last 1 month. Show the UTXO age band from Nov 14-30, 2025. Not just last week.

Denniszi

I wouldnt call it that till it hits the MA (200) to confirm... Stay safe 👍🏻

piggleii

Should see some bids around the 85k mark which is close to the 100W MA. Let's see what kind of a bounce we get.

Substantial-Sea3046

for me, with MA50 broken need to retest the MA200, everything that happens in between concerns only intraday traders. there may be pumps, rebounds, and increases, but it will retest the MA200 before a new ATH, That is my conviction

BottomTimer_TunaFish

If your only indicator is 50-week MA, I have a desert oasis to sell to you in Antarctica. Both fundamental and technical analysis are required to analyze markets. Using only one TA metric leaves you vulnerable to confirmation bias by zooming in on what you want to happen.

Zealousideal_Rain_79

Nah man, no way we’re getting an altcoin season this cycle. Maybe in 2028 or 2029, but not now. BTC’s been under the 50-week MA for weeks, so the cycle’s basically done.

Zealousideal_Rain_79

Nah man, no way we’re getting an altcoin season this cycle. Maybe in 2028 or 2029, but not now. BTC’s been under the 50-week MA for weeks, so the cycle’s basically done.

CXavier4545

let’s break the 50 MA then maybe the trend turns bullish it’s struggling to even do that with all the good news

Ping0u

Look the MA200 if btc touch it B U Y !

Substantial-Sea3046

Maybe. We don’t know. But in trading a confirmed weekly MA50 broken mean direction near or under MA200 in trading...

AutoModerator

Post is by: Constant_Ad1368 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1pj4y4e/btc_soon_90k/ Wouldn’t be surprised if BTC moves towards 90K retracting yesterday’s move. It looks a bit shaky. Usually when a pump like this halts we see a complete retrace. Took the previous highs around 94K and went back inside the range, suggesting that stops were hunted. Price also faked out and closed above the 4H 200MA and then closed back in and rejected it. Also, when price usually has such a pump before a major event we are likely to see that pump retrace. Too many confluences/confirmations to ignore such a move. Triple highs also forming on 4H time frame which shows price action weakening. Let’s see *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

pwnknight

Its not mixed signals. We know from past cycles we will atleast see a bounce back to 50 W MA after we crashed under it. It will either get rejected and go deeper into a bear market or break and close above showing the cycle theory is dead. Let's wait and see.

dalepo

going back to the 50w MA and obliterate all bears

CanadianCompSciGuy

I am stunned by the number of people who think this is the bottom. That it can only go up from here. The 200 week MA doesn't mean shit. Before you do something like that, you need to ensure you have the proper foundation. Do you have a stable job? If you lost your job tomorrow, are you able to survive for 1 year being jobless? Do you have a safety net? Enough cash on hand to pay for the shit life is going to throw at you? Car repair of at least 4k? Health issue? etc. How much disposable income to you have each month after the 320 Euro loan repayment? Are you debt free? If not, for fucks sake, go pay that off before taking on more debt.

FlatBlackMatte

No way btc visiting the 200 MA, objective truth directional right there lol… Get ready..

Substantial-Sea3046

No QE, MA50 weekly broken, fed cut rate the 11th ( sell the news ), PERFECT wickoff started in april, and a lot of people telling "this time it's different"... under 90k no need to wait, just make a DCA

InFLIRTation

Yeah things are changing. People like to use 50 week MA as confirmation of bear market. But our 50week is like 105k a 20% decline to trigger ir. Prior cycles you need 40% plus declines to touch it

kexpi

i'd assume it had to be SMA, like 50 or 200 day MA

Substantial-Sea3046

I'm concern about MA50 cross and MA200 rebounce or lost , like on stock, the rest is just noise, especially since we are not in QE... and I also don’t forget that QE arrives during a storm in the markets. No storm actually...

AutoModerator

Post is by: NightDJ_Rex and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1pffr3b/am_i_crazy_or_do_crypto_alert_apps_all_kinda_suck/ So i day trade crypto and i'm constantly missing moves because i can't sit and stare at charts all day (shocking, i have a life lol) I've tried like 5 different alert apps and they all have issues: Tradingview - alerts cost $15-60/month which is insane for literally just getting a notification. The free version gives you like 3 alerts which is useless Coinbase - only does price alerts. Cool but i want MA crosses and RSI stuff Crypto Alert - honestly not bad but it's buggy af on my phone and notifications are delayed sometimes Blockfolio - rip Binance app - works but only for binance obviously, and the alerts are super basic Maybe i'm just picky but i feel like there should be something simple that just: * Lets me set custom alerts (MA crossovers, RSI levels, whatever) * Sends instant push notifications * Doesn't cost $60/month * Actually works reliably Like i don't need charts or news or a social network. Just tell me when btc's 9 ema crosses the 21 on the 5min chart lmao Am i missing something obvious? What do you guys use? Been thinking about just building my own at this point but idk if that's dumb Edit: Not trying to promote anything just genuinely asking what people use. If there's already a good solution i'm an idiot and will use that instead *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

pwnknight

We usually go back up to the 50 W MA which is at 102k then continue to drop like all past bear markets. If it breaks past and uses as support the bull run is back

L00PYLL0YD

Damn, that is clever. We cannot access River in the UK, therefore use Strike. Hopefully they implement a similar feature with the 7 day MA, although I do allocate my funds to my DCA amount (Also hourly) as per my budgeting with wages etc, but did increase my hourly recently as BTC took a dump, to captivate on the sale sats. I did like though that Strike have recently added the ability to change the amount without resetting the fee timer. (It used to reset the fees when you changed the DCA amount).

Substantial-Sea3046

MA50 cross cycle? It’s happen also on stock market... I don’t know why everyone tell "this time it’s different" lol

pwnknight

Actually like all past cycles a bounce back to the 50 W MA happened like were seeing now. Btc needs to break 102k and not be rejected to invalidate the 4 year cycle theory.

HorsedickGoldstein

Bro I’ve been in the crypto space for 2 months bro, I’ve studied bitcoin and the entire crypto market bro. The 69MA and 67 (67 lol) MA are finally crossing. This is the golden bullish 67 (lol) cross. VWAP says buy, and MACD says don’t sell. The bottom is in bro and bitcoin is going to 150k end of year brother. God bless /s

pwnknight

You do realize a bounce back to the 50 W MA was expected like every past cycles. I wouldn't buy till we break back above 102k. All 3 times in the past we rejected off of it.

Baalhrezem

So 50/50 it goes up or down based on a 111 MA? I drew a line and it said 117k by 3/30.

jk3639

What’s the current 200 MA like $70k?

Aggressive_Spell2314

Awesome, are you loving this bitcoin journey? I know I am. Lots of FUD last month: 50-MA FUD, Quantum computing FUD, MSTR FUD, Japanese Carry Trade FUD. Just sitting back and chilling 🙂

gtwooh

It will spike to the 200 week MA. Just give it time

Due-Practice5507

Bitcoiners hating on TA but happily DCA at 120k instead of just following the 50+200 week MA and severely underperforming the simplest of TA will always be funny to me.

skyyyloo

Remember to keep emotions in check during corrections. The Fear & Greed Index is likely in "Extreme Fear" territory right now - historically a good contrarian indicator. Consider DCA instead of lump sum entry, set buy orders at key support levels (200-day MA, previous ATH). This pattern has played out multiple times in BTC history, but past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The correction size matters - 30%+ drawdowns typically need months to fully recover. Check funding rates on perpetual futures for market sentiment before making moves.

pwnknight

We closed weeks under the 50 W MA that confirms buyers are exhausted and we started the bear market like in all past instances.

Oddsee

Would you be confident enough to short it when it hits the MA?

pwnknight

Sure and that invalidation is closing 2 weeks above the 50 W MA. I'd love to be wrong too bro but new ppl need to know

pwnknight

Look at all past cycles after the drop under the 50 W MA we see a bounce off the 100 back to the 50 then the real bear market starts. Open trading view and look at the moving averages of all past cycles

pwnknight

Its expected to bounce back to its 50 W MA at 102k then continue crashing like all past cycles.

Extreme_Homeworker

Yeah the 50W MA bounce is key. Only thing I’m watching this time is how fast we reclaim it — the velocity of this bounce feels very “derivative-driven” more than spot-driven. If we get a clean weekly close above it again, then the historical rhythm kicks in.

pwnknight

Btc ALWAYS bounces back to its 50 W MA after it closes under it. Happens literally every cycle. That is 102k right now so don't get to hyped up.

Background_City2987

idk. ive never rly took those "techincal analys indicators" very seriously anyways. But I respect wy more the weekly/daily/4 hour charts and MA than the 5/15/1hour ones. Thus, even if it "fundametally doesnt mean anything and btc is fundamentally the same, the technical analysis may play some role. I still buy the dips, im just saying to expect it to be stagnant for a while (at least i'm ready for it since since i dont rly "need" the money i put in).

namieorange

Oh. And how about the other data that it goes close to the previous cycle ATH every single time as a bottom That it bottoms in the 200W MA Also that it always closes post halving year in massive green Also that it never reaches ATH before halving Thanks for letting us know your favorite cherrypicked stat

AutoModerator

Post is by: Desperate-Hurry-3205 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1p5i0g1/btc_weekly_technical_snapshot_pivot_at_869k/ **TL;DR:** As of 2025-11-24, Bitcoin (BTC) closed at $86,820 on the weekly chart, sitting just below the weekly pivot (86,895.6). Short- and mid-term indicators show a bearish bias: price is below the EMA10/20/50, MACD is negative, and ADX indicates a weak trend. Oscillators are near oversold (RSI \~32, stochastic in oversold with an early bullish cross) while price has breached the lower Bollinger Band — a volatility signal that can persist. Immediate support and resistance are tightly spaced (\~±1–3.7%), with a heavy resistance cluster at 93.6–98k and deeper historical supports well below 42k. This is a tactical environment; momentum and band signals conflict, so resolution may be reflected in weekly closes around the pivot, R1/R3 and S1/S3. **The current picture (quick facts)** The mid-term technical structure is biased down (lower highs & lower lows) while the market lacks strong directional momentum. \- Last weekly close: $86,820. \- Weekly pivot: 86,895.6 (price is fractionally below). \- Short/mid MAs: Price < EMA10 (101,354), EMA20 (105,130), EMA50 (99,668). \- Long MA: SMA200 at 55,798 — well below current price (long-term structural support). \- ADX: 11.9 — weak trend strength on the weekly timeframe. \- Market phase bearish drift with choppy range behaviour. **What the indicators are saying** Oscillators are showing oversold conditions while trend and momentum remain unfavorable. That creates a mixed signal set — short-term bounce candidates within a broader bearish context. \- MACD: Negative and below its signal line (MACD −2,243; signal 1,867; hist −4,109) — momentum is bearish. \- RSI (14): 32.3 — close to oversold but not an extreme reversal signal on its own. \- Stochastic: K 13.8, D 10.5 — in oversold territory with K above D (an early bullish cross that can precede short squeezes or temporary bounces). \- Bollinger Bands: Price is below the lower band (Upper \~130.7k, Lower \~90.1k) — a band breach that signals elevated volatility; breaches can persist during trending moves or violent chop. \- ATR (weekly): \~10.25k — points to high weekly volatility range. **Support, resistance and the pivot map** Price currently trades inside a tight weekly pivot band (\~±1–3.7%). Overhead supply becomes significant above \~93.6k and could stall any meaningful recovery. Immediate downside interest clusters around the S1–S3 band. \- Pivot (range mid): 86,895.6 (+0.09%). \- Resistance cluster (near-term): R1 87,911 (+1.26%), R2 89,002 (+2.51%), R3 90,018 (+3.69%). \- Extended resistance cluster (supply zone): 93,625 (+7.84%), 94,500 (+8.85%), 96,250 (+10.86%), 98,000 (+12.88%). Major resistance around 108,500 (+24.98%). \- Near supports: S1 85,804 (−1.17%), S2 84,789 (−2.34%), S3 83,698 (−3.61%). \- Deep, historical frequency supports (contextually distant): 42,000 (−51.6%), 29,750 (−65.7%), 26,250 (−69.8%), 19,250 (−77.8%). **Volume and recent market context** \- Notable volume spikes: 2024-11-11 (breakout volume surge, +100% vs typical) and 2025-03-03 (elevated selling, +35%). Recent selling waves showed expansion in volume, which supports the bearish mid-term narrative. \- Range (last \~3 months on the weekly): low \~86.8k, high \~123.5k — a wide range (≈42% width relative to the low), reflecting choppy behavior and elevated whipsaw risk. This is a technical snapshot intended to clarify structure and levels, not a forecast or financial advice. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

grammarguy5

At the end of previous cycles and indicator that the top was in was a rally to the 200d MA after the cycle top. Which would mean a short rally to around 100k - 110k before the cycle bottom.

SilverGoldSnowman

Respect the skepticism — healthy for the space. For anyone curious, each line is tagged with the exact weeks/wicks it’s based on. Feel free to check and draw your own. If they still converge within ±3 weeks of February 2026 at the 200w MA… well, that’s the conversation I’m here for.

Desert_rose21

There could be a retracement up to the 200 MA which will be around 100K

OhhhhBillly

200 week moving average is the mean trend line, bitcoin has always revisited that trend after extending away from it, last bear cycle it went below it for the first time down to the 300 week MA. 200 Week MA is currently at 55k, I believe it will drop below 65k at some point in the next year and 45k is in play, possibly lower. So to answer your question yes, there is a good chance it will hit 50k in the next year or two leading up to the next halving. Cycle over cycle bitcoin tends to under perform my expectations to the top (I called for 140k top this cycle) and over perform my expectations to the bottom (I called for 28k bottom last cycle) Key levels to watch are 48k and 42k, 200 week MA could potentially be between 60 - 65k by the time price meets it, so I do expect it to extend below the 200 week again in this bear market. I also expect a relief rally back to the 200 day resistance before we go much lower, 200 day is currently at 108k, this is the "were so back" phase where everyone thinks were headed back up but were actually heading lower. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/g7eR9QPc/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/g7eR9QPc/)

Aerocryptic

And I forgot : the 200W MA is always a good spot to start buying again

piggleii

Might see a relief bounce here on the 100W MA. Might not. NFA

OpenJolt

I think we will test the 200MA

South_Wear1484

It has repeatedly fallen to the 200 week MA during bear markets. IF the same thing were to happen this time around, BTC would fall to around 66k USD.

xbriannova

First things first. It is questionable if Bitcoin will return to a price of US$40k. I used to think that Bitcoin will drop down to the US$60k level, but that estimation is predicated on Bitcoin going higher than US$126k. I think the real answer is somewhere in between. The tools I use are the Fibonacci Retracement, SMA, particularly the 364 weeks MA, which predicts the absolute bottom price. Bitcoin is less volatile these days, so I think this makes sense. Secondly, loans. I've taken loans before to buy crypto, so you've found the right person to talk about it. Back in the day, I'd take small micro-loans, not loans of 40k though. There are smaller and newer banks in my country that offers microloans that have flexible repayment schemes. I would take loans of S$5000 at a time, and I did it only twice. The flexible repayment bit is important because it allows you to dodge most of the interest by paying it back quickly. That said, I don't think a 40k loan with instalments of 100/mth is favourable. The interest will eat away at your profits. If you're able to buy the bottom and sell the top confidently, this is not an issue. It will be a huge issue though if you make mistakes - basically, you can't afford to earn too little profits or make losses. The bar will be set higher. So my suggestion is this: fund your investments out of your own pocket. Only take loans at small amounts, at low enough interest, and with flexible repayment scheme if possible. Looking at the economy, the US fed rate is going down, so that could lead to loans with lower interest rates. Be patient and monitor interest rates. You'll have time anyway. \--- If it is any use to you, I'll tell you about my plans. I've done well enough this cycle. Not ideal thanks to altcoin underperformance, but I've made decent money. At this point, I've sold everything, shaved off a huge amount of the money to buy property and earn passive income, so I'm semi-retired. However, that doesn't leave much for reinvestment into crypto (mainly BTC). My goal in the next cycle is to reach millionaire status. I have only 31% of the funds I need to achieve this, by my estimation. Next year, I can make up for 20% of it through my own pocket. My plan is similar to yours, just on a smaller scale. I will be taking loans the moment Bitcoin reaches its bottom price. I can take the $5000 flexible loan, as well as $10k loans which allows me to repay in advance for a fee. I've been monitoring some loan offers and their interest rates are really getting low. That brings me up to 66% of the capital I need for my plan. The rest can come from me DCAing as the next cycle progresses. I can even taken more loans if my risk appetite allows it.

goinpro224

yep. this is exactly what I’m looking at too. In the history of bitcoin it only closes consecutively below 50W MA when entering a bear market. Unless we rally back up to $100K+ in the next 3-4 days we are almost certainly will close under the 50W MA again.

ValueScreener

This is on transaction at a small bank in Germany. https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/s/wwIoFAD5MA Read through the discussion and you’ll see this paper doesn’t prove much of anything.

ValueScreener

https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/s/wwIoFAD5MA R/economics covered this paper. I’ll let you read the comments and decide on their opinion.

ardus666

I'm not saying it has to or it will. But it closed once already under the 50w MA. If it does it again, usually a strong indicator the cycle is over.

Dark_Raiden_

Nah i was just high and being a bit of an asshole. Meant that the 50W MA is decently higher than where we are at rn

gowithflow192

We're back to the 50 week MA. Backing off from a top to revert to the mean is not a dive.

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Post is by: RealisticCycle4888 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: https://youtube.com/watch?v=XO8c5urc4pU&si=KIw7Fqi-mnUZgJq4 Bitcoin just broke below its 2-year weekly trendline for the first time since 2022 — and the move under $90K today looks more significant than a standard dip. Technical signals lining up: • First weekly trendline break since the 2022 capitulation • Death cross forming on the daily (50 MA crossing under 200 MA) • \~$1B in long liquidations in 24 hours • Rising ETF outflows into November • Whales (1,000+ BTC wallets) accumulating during the dip Key support levels I'm watching right now: • $85K–$88K (immediate support) • $78K–$80K (weekly demand zone) • $68K–$72K (macro support / previous ATH retest) This setup looks very similar to mid-cycle flushes in 2013, 2017, and 2021 — the kind that happen \*before\* the next major move. I put together a full breakdown with charts here for anyone who wants the complete analysis: \[YouTube link\] Curious what this sub thinks: Do we bounce at $85K or revisit the $68K–$72K zone first? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Acceptable-Take20

BTC will retest the 50 MA, be rejected and drop from there.

namieorange

It looks like it. But honestly it was only because whales decided it's over because dates No huge catalysts to end it like before. It should be a mid cycle correction because of liquidity issues but it got out of hand as we went under the "50W MA and the days of the run"