MA

FlatBlackMatte

No way btc visiting the 200 MA, objective truth directional right there lol… Get ready..

Substantial-Sea3046

No QE, MA50 weekly broken, fed cut rate the 11th ( sell the news ), PERFECT wickoff started in april, and a lot of people telling "this time it's different"... under 90k no need to wait, just make a DCA

InFLIRTation

Yeah things are changing. People like to use 50 week MA as confirmation of bear market. But our 50week is like 105k a 20% decline to trigger ir. Prior cycles you need 40% plus declines to touch it

kexpi

i'd assume it had to be SMA, like 50 or 200 day MA

Substantial-Sea3046

I'm concern about MA50 cross and MA200 rebounce or lost , like on stock, the rest is just noise, especially since we are not in QE... and I also don’t forget that QE arrives during a storm in the markets. No storm actually...

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Post is by: NightDJ_Rex and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1pffr3b/am_i_crazy_or_do_crypto_alert_apps_all_kinda_suck/ So i day trade crypto and i'm constantly missing moves because i can't sit and stare at charts all day (shocking, i have a life lol) I've tried like 5 different alert apps and they all have issues: Tradingview - alerts cost $15-60/month which is insane for literally just getting a notification. The free version gives you like 3 alerts which is useless Coinbase - only does price alerts. Cool but i want MA crosses and RSI stuff Crypto Alert - honestly not bad but it's buggy af on my phone and notifications are delayed sometimes Blockfolio - rip Binance app - works but only for binance obviously, and the alerts are super basic Maybe i'm just picky but i feel like there should be something simple that just: * Lets me set custom alerts (MA crossovers, RSI levels, whatever) * Sends instant push notifications * Doesn't cost $60/month * Actually works reliably Like i don't need charts or news or a social network. Just tell me when btc's 9 ema crosses the 21 on the 5min chart lmao Am i missing something obvious? What do you guys use? Been thinking about just building my own at this point but idk if that's dumb Edit: Not trying to promote anything just genuinely asking what people use. If there's already a good solution i'm an idiot and will use that instead *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

pwnknight

We usually go back up to the 50 W MA which is at 102k then continue to drop like all past bear markets. If it breaks past and uses as support the bull run is back

L00PYLL0YD

Damn, that is clever. We cannot access River in the UK, therefore use Strike. Hopefully they implement a similar feature with the 7 day MA, although I do allocate my funds to my DCA amount (Also hourly) as per my budgeting with wages etc, but did increase my hourly recently as BTC took a dump, to captivate on the sale sats. I did like though that Strike have recently added the ability to change the amount without resetting the fee timer. (It used to reset the fees when you changed the DCA amount).

Substantial-Sea3046

MA50 cross cycle? It’s happen also on stock market... I don’t know why everyone tell "this time it’s different" lol

pwnknight

Actually like all past cycles a bounce back to the 50 W MA happened like were seeing now. Btc needs to break 102k and not be rejected to invalidate the 4 year cycle theory.

HorsedickGoldstein

Bro I’ve been in the crypto space for 2 months bro, I’ve studied bitcoin and the entire crypto market bro. The 69MA and 67 (67 lol) MA are finally crossing. This is the golden bullish 67 (lol) cross. VWAP says buy, and MACD says don’t sell. The bottom is in bro and bitcoin is going to 150k end of year brother. God bless /s

pwnknight

You do realize a bounce back to the 50 W MA was expected like every past cycles. I wouldn't buy till we break back above 102k. All 3 times in the past we rejected off of it.

Baalhrezem

So 50/50 it goes up or down based on a 111 MA? I drew a line and it said 117k by 3/30.

jk3639

What’s the current 200 MA like $70k?

Aggressive_Spell2314

Awesome, are you loving this bitcoin journey? I know I am. Lots of FUD last month: 50-MA FUD, Quantum computing FUD, MSTR FUD, Japanese Carry Trade FUD. Just sitting back and chilling 🙂

gtwooh

It will spike to the 200 week MA. Just give it time

Due-Practice5507

Bitcoiners hating on TA but happily DCA at 120k instead of just following the 50+200 week MA and severely underperforming the simplest of TA will always be funny to me.

skyyyloo

Remember to keep emotions in check during corrections. The Fear & Greed Index is likely in "Extreme Fear" territory right now - historically a good contrarian indicator. Consider DCA instead of lump sum entry, set buy orders at key support levels (200-day MA, previous ATH). This pattern has played out multiple times in BTC history, but past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The correction size matters - 30%+ drawdowns typically need months to fully recover. Check funding rates on perpetual futures for market sentiment before making moves.

pwnknight

We closed weeks under the 50 W MA that confirms buyers are exhausted and we started the bear market like in all past instances.

Oddsee

Would you be confident enough to short it when it hits the MA?

pwnknight

Sure and that invalidation is closing 2 weeks above the 50 W MA. I'd love to be wrong too bro but new ppl need to know

pwnknight

Look at all past cycles after the drop under the 50 W MA we see a bounce off the 100 back to the 50 then the real bear market starts. Open trading view and look at the moving averages of all past cycles

pwnknight

Its expected to bounce back to its 50 W MA at 102k then continue crashing like all past cycles.

Extreme_Homeworker

Yeah the 50W MA bounce is key. Only thing I’m watching this time is how fast we reclaim it — the velocity of this bounce feels very “derivative-driven” more than spot-driven. If we get a clean weekly close above it again, then the historical rhythm kicks in.

pwnknight

Btc ALWAYS bounces back to its 50 W MA after it closes under it. Happens literally every cycle. That is 102k right now so don't get to hyped up.

Background_City2987

idk. ive never rly took those "techincal analys indicators" very seriously anyways. But I respect wy more the weekly/daily/4 hour charts and MA than the 5/15/1hour ones. Thus, even if it "fundametally doesnt mean anything and btc is fundamentally the same, the technical analysis may play some role. I still buy the dips, im just saying to expect it to be stagnant for a while (at least i'm ready for it since since i dont rly "need" the money i put in).

namieorange

Oh. And how about the other data that it goes close to the previous cycle ATH every single time as a bottom That it bottoms in the 200W MA Also that it always closes post halving year in massive green Also that it never reaches ATH before halving Thanks for letting us know your favorite cherrypicked stat

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Post is by: Desperate-Hurry-3205 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1p5i0g1/btc_weekly_technical_snapshot_pivot_at_869k/ **TL;DR:** As of 2025-11-24, Bitcoin (BTC) closed at $86,820 on the weekly chart, sitting just below the weekly pivot (86,895.6). Short- and mid-term indicators show a bearish bias: price is below the EMA10/20/50, MACD is negative, and ADX indicates a weak trend. Oscillators are near oversold (RSI \~32, stochastic in oversold with an early bullish cross) while price has breached the lower Bollinger Band — a volatility signal that can persist. Immediate support and resistance are tightly spaced (\~±1–3.7%), with a heavy resistance cluster at 93.6–98k and deeper historical supports well below 42k. This is a tactical environment; momentum and band signals conflict, so resolution may be reflected in weekly closes around the pivot, R1/R3 and S1/S3. **The current picture (quick facts)** The mid-term technical structure is biased down (lower highs & lower lows) while the market lacks strong directional momentum. \- Last weekly close: $86,820. \- Weekly pivot: 86,895.6 (price is fractionally below). \- Short/mid MAs: Price < EMA10 (101,354), EMA20 (105,130), EMA50 (99,668). \- Long MA: SMA200 at 55,798 — well below current price (long-term structural support). \- ADX: 11.9 — weak trend strength on the weekly timeframe. \- Market phase bearish drift with choppy range behaviour. **What the indicators are saying** Oscillators are showing oversold conditions while trend and momentum remain unfavorable. That creates a mixed signal set — short-term bounce candidates within a broader bearish context. \- MACD: Negative and below its signal line (MACD −2,243; signal 1,867; hist −4,109) — momentum is bearish. \- RSI (14): 32.3 — close to oversold but not an extreme reversal signal on its own. \- Stochastic: K 13.8, D 10.5 — in oversold territory with K above D (an early bullish cross that can precede short squeezes or temporary bounces). \- Bollinger Bands: Price is below the lower band (Upper \~130.7k, Lower \~90.1k) — a band breach that signals elevated volatility; breaches can persist during trending moves or violent chop. \- ATR (weekly): \~10.25k — points to high weekly volatility range. **Support, resistance and the pivot map** Price currently trades inside a tight weekly pivot band (\~±1–3.7%). Overhead supply becomes significant above \~93.6k and could stall any meaningful recovery. Immediate downside interest clusters around the S1–S3 band. \- Pivot (range mid): 86,895.6 (+0.09%). \- Resistance cluster (near-term): R1 87,911 (+1.26%), R2 89,002 (+2.51%), R3 90,018 (+3.69%). \- Extended resistance cluster (supply zone): 93,625 (+7.84%), 94,500 (+8.85%), 96,250 (+10.86%), 98,000 (+12.88%). Major resistance around 108,500 (+24.98%). \- Near supports: S1 85,804 (−1.17%), S2 84,789 (−2.34%), S3 83,698 (−3.61%). \- Deep, historical frequency supports (contextually distant): 42,000 (−51.6%), 29,750 (−65.7%), 26,250 (−69.8%), 19,250 (−77.8%). **Volume and recent market context** \- Notable volume spikes: 2024-11-11 (breakout volume surge, +100% vs typical) and 2025-03-03 (elevated selling, +35%). Recent selling waves showed expansion in volume, which supports the bearish mid-term narrative. \- Range (last \~3 months on the weekly): low \~86.8k, high \~123.5k — a wide range (≈42% width relative to the low), reflecting choppy behavior and elevated whipsaw risk. This is a technical snapshot intended to clarify structure and levels, not a forecast or financial advice. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

grammarguy5

At the end of previous cycles and indicator that the top was in was a rally to the 200d MA after the cycle top. Which would mean a short rally to around 100k - 110k before the cycle bottom.

SilverGoldSnowman

Respect the skepticism — healthy for the space. For anyone curious, each line is tagged with the exact weeks/wicks it’s based on. Feel free to check and draw your own. If they still converge within ±3 weeks of February 2026 at the 200w MA… well, that’s the conversation I’m here for.

Desert_rose21

There could be a retracement up to the 200 MA which will be around 100K

OhhhhBillly

200 week moving average is the mean trend line, bitcoin has always revisited that trend after extending away from it, last bear cycle it went below it for the first time down to the 300 week MA. 200 Week MA is currently at 55k, I believe it will drop below 65k at some point in the next year and 45k is in play, possibly lower. So to answer your question yes, there is a good chance it will hit 50k in the next year or two leading up to the next halving. Cycle over cycle bitcoin tends to under perform my expectations to the top (I called for 140k top this cycle) and over perform my expectations to the bottom (I called for 28k bottom last cycle) Key levels to watch are 48k and 42k, 200 week MA could potentially be between 60 - 65k by the time price meets it, so I do expect it to extend below the 200 week again in this bear market. I also expect a relief rally back to the 200 day resistance before we go much lower, 200 day is currently at 108k, this is the "were so back" phase where everyone thinks were headed back up but were actually heading lower. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/g7eR9QPc/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/g7eR9QPc/)

Aerocryptic

And I forgot : the 200W MA is always a good spot to start buying again

piggleii

Might see a relief bounce here on the 100W MA. Might not. NFA

OpenJolt

I think we will test the 200MA

South_Wear1484

It has repeatedly fallen to the 200 week MA during bear markets. IF the same thing were to happen this time around, BTC would fall to around 66k USD.

xbriannova

First things first. It is questionable if Bitcoin will return to a price of US$40k. I used to think that Bitcoin will drop down to the US$60k level, but that estimation is predicated on Bitcoin going higher than US$126k. I think the real answer is somewhere in between. The tools I use are the Fibonacci Retracement, SMA, particularly the 364 weeks MA, which predicts the absolute bottom price. Bitcoin is less volatile these days, so I think this makes sense. Secondly, loans. I've taken loans before to buy crypto, so you've found the right person to talk about it. Back in the day, I'd take small micro-loans, not loans of 40k though. There are smaller and newer banks in my country that offers microloans that have flexible repayment schemes. I would take loans of S$5000 at a time, and I did it only twice. The flexible repayment bit is important because it allows you to dodge most of the interest by paying it back quickly. That said, I don't think a 40k loan with instalments of 100/mth is favourable. The interest will eat away at your profits. If you're able to buy the bottom and sell the top confidently, this is not an issue. It will be a huge issue though if you make mistakes - basically, you can't afford to earn too little profits or make losses. The bar will be set higher. So my suggestion is this: fund your investments out of your own pocket. Only take loans at small amounts, at low enough interest, and with flexible repayment scheme if possible. Looking at the economy, the US fed rate is going down, so that could lead to loans with lower interest rates. Be patient and monitor interest rates. You'll have time anyway. \--- If it is any use to you, I'll tell you about my plans. I've done well enough this cycle. Not ideal thanks to altcoin underperformance, but I've made decent money. At this point, I've sold everything, shaved off a huge amount of the money to buy property and earn passive income, so I'm semi-retired. However, that doesn't leave much for reinvestment into crypto (mainly BTC). My goal in the next cycle is to reach millionaire status. I have only 31% of the funds I need to achieve this, by my estimation. Next year, I can make up for 20% of it through my own pocket. My plan is similar to yours, just on a smaller scale. I will be taking loans the moment Bitcoin reaches its bottom price. I can take the $5000 flexible loan, as well as $10k loans which allows me to repay in advance for a fee. I've been monitoring some loan offers and their interest rates are really getting low. That brings me up to 66% of the capital I need for my plan. The rest can come from me DCAing as the next cycle progresses. I can even taken more loans if my risk appetite allows it.

goinpro224

yep. this is exactly what I’m looking at too. In the history of bitcoin it only closes consecutively below 50W MA when entering a bear market. Unless we rally back up to $100K+ in the next 3-4 days we are almost certainly will close under the 50W MA again.

ValueScreener

This is on transaction at a small bank in Germany. https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/s/wwIoFAD5MA Read through the discussion and you’ll see this paper doesn’t prove much of anything.

ValueScreener

https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/s/wwIoFAD5MA R/economics covered this paper. I’ll let you read the comments and decide on their opinion.

ardus666

I'm not saying it has to or it will. But it closed once already under the 50w MA. If it does it again, usually a strong indicator the cycle is over.

Dark_Raiden_

Nah i was just high and being a bit of an asshole. Meant that the 50W MA is decently higher than where we are at rn

gowithflow192

We're back to the 50 week MA. Backing off from a top to revert to the mean is not a dive.

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Post is by: RealisticCycle4888 and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: https://youtube.com/watch?v=XO8c5urc4pU&si=KIw7Fqi-mnUZgJq4 Bitcoin just broke below its 2-year weekly trendline for the first time since 2022 — and the move under $90K today looks more significant than a standard dip. Technical signals lining up: • First weekly trendline break since the 2022 capitulation • Death cross forming on the daily (50 MA crossing under 200 MA) • \~$1B in long liquidations in 24 hours • Rising ETF outflows into November • Whales (1,000+ BTC wallets) accumulating during the dip Key support levels I'm watching right now: • $85K–$88K (immediate support) • $78K–$80K (weekly demand zone) • $68K–$72K (macro support / previous ATH retest) This setup looks very similar to mid-cycle flushes in 2013, 2017, and 2021 — the kind that happen \*before\* the next major move. I put together a full breakdown with charts here for anyone who wants the complete analysis: \[YouTube link\] Curious what this sub thinks: Do we bounce at $85K or revisit the $68K–$72K zone first? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

Acceptable-Take20

BTC will retest the 50 MA, be rejected and drop from there.

namieorange

It looks like it. But honestly it was only because whales decided it's over because dates No huge catalysts to end it like before. It should be a mid cycle correction because of liquidity issues but it got out of hand as we went under the "50W MA and the days of the run"

Easy_Reflection_9128

I just sold at 60% loss. Theres a 25% chance it bounces back. But much higher chance that it goes much lower. So wasn't worth the risk for me. Also, it closed below 50 MA. That's also a big indicator for bear market

Street_Outside_7228

Since weekly closed below 50MA I’d watch for resistance forming there, around $100-103k zone. If it closes weekly above that, it’s possible to pull some more but that’s a big IF.

BTBL1

Moving averages simply tell you that the market is moving in a specific direction over a specific timeframe. If you’re using a 50-week MA, it becomes severely lagged. It should be used to measure the strength of the overall trend. In a bull market, if a countertrend move is strong, candles can drop below the MA and stay there for a while in a bear market the opposite happens. People here seem to use it to determine the immediate market trend, but it’s not designed for that.

Mandoo_gg

It's confusing reading you guys talking about TA. 3 different people have commented and they're using 3 different moving averages: EMA, SMA, MA. regardless of that, I absolutely agree that none of that can predict the future.

crazy_lolipopp

Every time we have closed below the 50 week MA in a bull market it has always been the start of the bear market..?

Natural-Word4928

Bitcoin finally closed below the 50-week MA... We're cooked? Still HODLing no matter what

Natural-Word4928

welp. It closed below the 50MA :/ Cycle over...

northcasewhite

Close below 50W MA just happened. Now we wait for next Sunday.

buxmell

good work. can you please add real time 20, 50, 200 day moving averages and 50 week MA? and I won't look at another site if you do it

gtwooh

Extend your time to the Weekly and look at the 200 MA. It’s just above 52 atm

gtwooh

Don’t catch falling knives and learn to place orders at fib levels and key MA to help preserve dry powder

postylambz

"this time is different". We'll find out in 14 hours if it closes the week under the 50 week MA. That's been the confirmation of a bear market in the last 3 cycles.

northcasewhite

50 week moving average. To me MA is almost meaningless but people trade by them so they become somewhat important for the rest of us.

northcasewhite

1 day remaining before closing below 50W MA. Ben Cowen said he will sell it all if BTC does that twice. I will hodl.

crazy_lolipopp

We're gonna make a weekly close way above the 50 week MA and some people are still bullish. 🤡

AutoModerator

Post is by: JonyBadoni and the url/text [ ](https://goo.gl/GP6ppk)is: /r/CryptoMarkets/comments/1oxy04f/my_gpt5_investment_automation_panic_before_i_did/ So i'm using this automation that scrapes the entire crypto market (indicators, news, on-chain) and lets GPT-5 interpret everything for me and tell me what to do. Up until one day ago it was leaning “bull-run flush.” Now it’s flipped to “early bear market” with about 55% conviction (not a confirmed call). Here's what it is telling me: Time to panic sell? \-------------------- # 1. Where we are * **Price:** \~95–96k * **Key levels:** * 50-week MA ≈ **102–103k** * Bull Market Support Band (20W EMA / 21W SMA) ≈ **110–113k** * **We’re below both** for the first time this cycle (depending on how this weekly candle closes). * **RSI weekly** is around 30. * **Fear & Greed Index = 10** (extreme fear). On the daily chart: * We just printed a **death cross** (50D moving average crossing *below* 200D). * Price tapped a **confluence zone** around **92–95k**: * lower “megaphone” trendline on the way up * **Fib 1.618 extension** of the last swing down (around 92k) * happens exactly as the death cross prints So structurally we look **hurt**, but tactically we’re hitting an area where a **bounce is very likely**. # 2. My high-level bias I’ve shifted from “this is just a clean bull-market flush” to: > The other side (\~40–45%) is still: > In other words: * **Short-term:** I expect **reaction up** from this 92–96k area more often than not. * **Mid-term (months):** until BTC is back *above* 103k and especially 110–113k, I treat the market as **guilty until proven innocent** (early-bear mindset). # 3. Macro / Meso / Micro in plain English **Macro backdrop (weeks):** * Long yields (10Y) are **softening**, oil is down → mildly supportive for risk. * Policy rate is still high / edging up, **M2 growth is slowing**, and **gold is strong** → that’s risk-off. * Net: macro is **mixed**, not screaming “big new bull leg”, more like “we can bounce, but liquidity isn’t amazing”. **Meso (weekly BTC structure):** * Price **lost the 20/21W Bull Band** first, and now is threatening a **weekly close below the 50WMA**. * 50WMA slope is flattening, not aggressively up anymore. * Futures basis is still **lightly positive**, so we don’t have a full derivatives blow-up; the market is bruised, not in total liquidation mode. * Cycle tools (Rainbow, S2F etc.) still place BTC in an **early-expansion / undervalued** zone *relative* to past cycles, but those models have clearly decoupled from price lately. This is exactly the kind of configuration you get either: * in a **mid-cycle “fake-out”** *or* * **early bear** before the real grind starts. Given we’ve already lost the main weekly support band and haven’t had a strong reclaim, I lean **early-bear**. **Micro (daily / sentiment / derivatives):** * Price is down \~6–7% on the week, \~11% on the month. * **RSI daily low 30s**, weekly around 30 → washed-out, not euphoric. * **Fear & Greed at 10** → everyone is miserable. * Funding is still **slightly positive** and open interest hasn’t fully nuked → there’s still leverage to squeeze both ways. That combo usually produces **bounces and fake-outs**, not smooth trend continuation. # 4. Altcoins, dominance & the “TOTAL3 bottomed” chart * BTC dominance is still high but **starting to roll over from a macro resistance zone**. * TOTAL3/BTC (alt market ex-BTC & ETH) may have **printed a relative bottom** with similar timing to last cycle. * Some majors are holding up *better* than you’d expect in this drawdown. In a strong bull, I’d call that **pre-altseason rotation**. In a fragile structure like this, I read it more as: > So my stance: * **BTC > alts** until BTC proves it’s back above 50WMA and the Bull Band. * I’d only touch **ETH / highest-quality alts** on oversold moves; broad degen alt exposure still looks dangerous if we are indeed stepping into a longer distribution / grind phase. # 5. How I’m personally treating this (mid-term investor mindset) Not advice, just my framework: * I assume **we’re closer to the start of an “early bear” than to the start of a new explosive leg up**, *but* * I also assume **this 92–96k zone is a high-probability reaction area**, not necessarily “straight to 70k”. So: 1. **Capital protection mode overall.** * No aggressive new leverage. * Keep cash dry rather than trying to knife-catch every dip. 2. **BTC overweight vs alts.** * If I want exposure, it’s mostly BTC + a little ETH / top quality, not a basket of low-cap alts. 3. **Tactically:** * I’m okay with **small, staged buys** in the **92–96k zone** *if* I also have a plan to **sell strength** into 102–110k while structure is still broken. * For me, the *big* shift back to more bullish risk only happens after: * at least **one weekly close back above the 50WMA (\~103k)** and * later, **one or two weekly closes above the 20/21W band (\~110–113k)** with calmer funding/OI. 4. **If we fail here (clean weekly close below 92k, no bounce):** * Then the early-bear case wins decisively and I’d expect **much lower prices over the next quarters**, maybe with brutal rallies in between. # 6. Condensed technical justification * **Structure:** BTC has spent 2 weeks below the 20/21W Bull Support Band and is attempting its **first weekly close below the 50WMA** of this cycle. In previous cycles, sustained time below these bands has *only* happened in bear markets or at the very end of distributions. * **Momentum & sentiment:** Weekly **RSI ≈30** and **Fear & Greed = 10** show capitulation-like conditions without any of the euphoric signatures we usually see at blow-off tops, pointing more to an **early bear / distribution breakdown** than to a classic parabolic top. * **Derivatives:** Funding slightly positive and basis \~+4% annualized show leveraged longs weren’t entirely flushed, which supports the idea of **choppy bounces and fake-outs** rather than a clean V-bottom. * **Macro:** Softening long yields and weak oil argue against immediate macro panic, but slowing M2 and strong gold keep the environment **risk-off / liquidity-tight**, unfavorable for a fresh explosive BTC leg. * **Local confluence:** The **92–95k region** lines up a **Fib 1.618 extension**, **lower megaphone support**, **death cross timing**, and extreme sentiment — a textbook **reaction zone**, but not yet enough to invalidate the broader structural damage. So yeah: I’m **leaning early bear**, but I expect **a meaningful bounce or sideways chop before the real verdict** — and until BTC reclaims 103k and then 110–113k on weekly closes, I’m treating every rip as something to **trade or de-risk into**, not as “we’re back to full send”. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/CryptoMarkets) if you have any questions or concerns.*

crazy_lolipopp

Looks like we're gonna get a weekly close below 50 week MA. Yeah we're cooked.

ChaoticDad21

If we close a weekly candle below the 50 week MA, that’s not good not going to be good

steaveaseageal

one small detail before we didn't break MA. We are in the bear market regards

Th3onib

By the time the MA does cross, it will be long over

parntsbasemnt4evrBC

The problem with conventional TA is it gathers everyone in group think to get rinsed by the sharks, Your reasoning is exactly why bitcoin could dump really hard Monday if everyoen thorws in the towel at the same time getting their confirmation that its over. The sharks front run you and manipulate the market to trigger the group following TA to get rinsed, Then as soon as your selling the sharks probably are using your liquidity to cover and then squeeze and magically the confirmation fails and wicks back above 200 MA and you guys suddenly buy back only for it to get rejected on another wick and go down even more. My suggestion is to use TA as a playbook for what not to do, where not to buy, where to avoid trading, and you'll do much better. If i know that there is no TA levels near then I can alawys feel more relief entering my positon knowing i'm not aligned with the herd so it is less likely i'm going to get rinsed along with them.

parntsbasemnt4evrBC

The problem, US market already blew its huge bounce from below to back above 200 EMA, and bitcoin erroded into lows instead of joining, So what now bitcon has to go up without any market support on its own when its been so weak for so long. If the Markets roll over again back below 200 MA its gonna be a blood bath sending Bitcoin high 80's ETH sub 3k.

Subject-Creme

It crossed over MA365, so it will be a long bear market. The last bear market, price was as low as 25-30% of ATH (16331/68990)

SCM92

You need 2 weekly closes below the 50MA to confirm the bear market. I think Ben Cowen just sneezed.

Frequent_Optimist

CME gap, death cross, 50 day SMA, 200 day SMA, DMA, MA crossovers, Fibonacci retracement, head and shoulders knees and toes, 1s chart. Am I missing anything in my arsenal?

Medium_Change4574

>We closed twice under the 50 MA in 2021 continued like nothing. Not true for the 50W SMA (that Cowen uses)

Despaciito

We are cooked once burgers starts panicselling in 6 hours. Everybody believing the narrative of the 50MA being some sort of doomsday portal. Self fulfilling prophecy to say the least

namieorange

We closed twice under the 50 MA in continued like nothing. What's more, we've wicked and closed under it soooooo many times to just continue rallying that the measure is as laughable as those who bring it up all the time

MaryyJuanaa

We cant close above weekly 50MA ($103k), officially bear market

Rude_Rub3536

If it closes below the 50 MA We are all fucked. Sunday will be the deal breaker. If it drops below that 50 MA in cashing out 80% of my entire portfolio. However, if it closes above we are headed to a blow off top at ATH. This is my game plan I would recommend you build your own strategy that works for your long/short investment plan.

G4RFX

Bull trap, wicked the 50MA and cmc fear and greed is on the extreme fear side. Sell everything and comeback in a year to DCA

Krimanezo

If BTC closes below the 200 day MA tomorrow you ain't seen nothing yet

Krimanezo

If BTC closes below the 200 day MA tomorrow you ain't seen nothing yet

obscureobject2574

Not if 98k doesn’t hold. Then it’s a quick ride back to 75k  We are already below 50 week MA

Dark_Raiden_

I was dismissive of the fact that you thought I was coping bro, read through these comments again. In more productive discussion, my final flag is the 2 weekly closes under the 50W MA. We are pretty cooked but that would seal the deal

SirRuleanSky

Ah, I see what you mean — yeah, I wasn’t talking about the zoom level, I was referring to the 50MA plotted on the 1-year timeframe view, not a literal 50-year average 😅. I get that it’s the 50-week MA that matters regardless of zoom, though. I definitely worded it poorly tho and ended up misrepresenting the data and myself a bit. Appreciate the correction 🤙🏼

ImMaury

So today we’re closing under 50 week MA?

SirRuleanSky

Fair — I’m here to learn and understand, I even mention that in the original post. I just know the 50MA’s usually a pretty solid trend signal in traditional markets, so I figured it might carry some weight on BTC’s longer charts too. Happy to be corrected if I’m off base 😅

ardus666

Wait. If the weekly price closes twice under the 50w MA, the top may be in a there's a chance for a bear market in 2026, as low as the 200w MA. Also if there's a confirmed head and shoulders pattern, good indicator of a bear market coming. I'd wait if you haven't started yet.

Kalaazam

We still above the 50 week MA though

kironet996

Or just close below 50MA then 200MA and stay there for at least 4 years.

DuckDuckMosss

It just closes above 50W MA. This makes investors and traders remain bullish. It seems we're going to make another high end of Q4

crazy_lolipopp

Looks like we're gonna close above the 50 week MA at least...

crazy_lolipopp

What's the 50 week MA price rn?

crazy_lolipopp

What is the price of 50 week MA?

Repulsive-Duck-4436

Long term yes, this year not so much... already below 50 and 200d MA

calethai26

DCA until price is under 200w MA. Then yes take the loan.

Laakhesis

Doesn't need to really IMO. Bitcoin just need to close < $103k, above 50W MA.

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davink91

The more I analyze the charts and look at all the data the more it starts to seem the top is in for this cycle. Everything is pointing towards the top being in for BTC. From bearish weekly RSI divergences, to Macds crossing down in high time frames, simillar distribution patterns as the 2021 top, to SPX retracing from the top of the channel, USDT dominance breaking out from its multi year resistance, to secondary signals such as privacy and dino coins pumping as per end of the cycle. And even the the litecoin pumps that technically precedes the dumps. And the complacency sentiment expecting "one last rally". The only thing missing as to technical confirmation of the top being in is the weekly close below 50 week MA below 103k. Which if we get this Sunday, I'd say there is about 95% chance the top is in.

yj292

Not gonna lie, the 365-day MA break spooked me a little. That line has a scary track record evry time we’ve lost it decisively, things got ugly fast.

Zestyclose_Acadia_40

This weekly candle isn't closing below the 50 week MA. It's going to be above 102k through Sunday. Next week is anyone's guess. But this is week the whales made a play on people's fears to create that wick below 100k and below the 50 wk MA. If we close below the 50 week MA in the following weeks we're into the bear market by definition and can expect further declines

anon-187101

Everyone is watching this MA. "When everyone know something, nobody knows anything."

__redruM

What do you do with this information? Sell at the down crossing, buy at the up crossing? I imagine you could structure limit buys at various points below the MA when the asset is under valued and limit sells above the MA when the asset is over valued. Like 0.1 BTC at 1% another at 1.5% out to 5-10% But generally this would be short and long moving average crossing. And ignores news event.