USM
United States Cellular Corporation
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Bitcoin is going to hit $102, 020+ by 2025 - Here's Why
Why It's a Trader's Market (and will be for the foreseeable future)
A sweet graph to yolo your savings at next week! $USM
Ahoy Its been a while, UXIN looks good to squeeze
United States Cellular Corporation SR NT 120163 (UZB) Gone from my list?
Mentions
Look at USM2.. lowering interest rates > forces people to put capital at work real estate is a horrible investment right now TINA = There Is No Alternative but equities.
We loading up on USM today?
This is misleading. There was a huge jump in M0 in 2020. But M0 is flat over the past 4 years. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ECONOMICS-USM0/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S M3 is down from 2 years ago... I think the private money and M2 would usually be correlated long term.
The United States of Memes (USM)
“The United States of 🥭 is about to shake up the world. We’re gonna troll the world better than anybody has ever done before. The best troll of all time. The last guys that trolled this hard were the germans in the 1940s - great people btw, the best - and we’re gonna put them to shame with our fantastic, beautiful, and most important of all, *economically beneficial* tariffs. Go USM, thank me, and fuck you all”
What if this is all just a way to convey the thoughts of Brokies and give you an investment thesis for $USM?
I would agree with you, but I encourage you to take a look at US M2 money supply on trading view for instance (USM2). You can clearly see a 5% up trend yearly until the pandemic, where it started increasing much more, but now they are returning to the normal, decreasing even. The Eurozone M2 supply followed a similar trend. So it's not like things are getting out of control ATM or anytime soon. In terms of federal Debt, to put into perspective, you can look (USGDG trading view) debt to GDP ratio historically, you can see we have had levels like this in 1946 and have recovered from it. However, that was right before a 3 year long drop in SP500. Finally, look at price to book ratios on SP500, I could not find a very historical graph, but [this one](https://www.gurufocus.com/economic_indicators/4240/sp-500-price-to-book-value) goes back 26 years. You can see we are 2 standard deviations away from the mean, the last time was this high was right before the dot-com bubble. I would not invest a single $1 on SP500 until we are at least back to 1 std, which would be a (still very high) P/B ratio of 4, instead of 5.
That definition change is a brilliant excuse to make it look like that, but that barely made a noticeable change. Look at M3, which didn't change: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S We just printed a ***lot*** of money.
[USA M3 Money Supply](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S)
Whats the play with the USM sale of assets to T-Mobile
"Boeing started supplying Used Serviceable Material (USM) for the Bell 212 model helicopter in September 2023, which is the exact model helicopter that the Iranian president (Ebrahim Raisi) was in at the time of the accident."
USM absolutely exploded.
USM up on buyout rumors.
From the perspective of individual investors and their grocery bills, M2 is the not the important measure though. Here is the important measure of money supply: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S) And 2020 is not the time frame we should look back too. We should be looking back further. And 2010...holy shit.
Gold is not immune to being overpriced. Guys like Beck and Schiff will always tell you to buy gold because their model assumes the US dollar is going to lose reserve status any minute now (fwiw, if USD loses reserve status, then gold could be 10s of thousands an ounce). For the time being though: Gold price = USM2 / 8 billion ounces of gold believed to exist above ground and in proven reserves. Or roughly $2,600 / troy ounce. You can also compare gold to other assets like the S&P to see which is the better deal. For example, the S&P historically trades for an average of 1.5oz of gold. Today, it's trading for 2.2 ounces. A decade ago, it was trading for 0.8 ounces. So gold is a good deal today and was a bad deal a decade ago.
TSM should change to USM if it continues to stay coupled to SPY like this 🤦♂️
Lol, you really dredge around these forums far too much. I don’t recognize many usernames, but yours has always been a crazy standout. You’ve been saying “inflation isn’t falling” since last year and now you’ve goal shifted to “rising inflation”. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting https://truflation.com/dashboard https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CP0000USM086NEST I’m sure you’re response will be full of reasons why not one of these is useful and include some antagonizing wording.
Divide the S&P by the USM2 and see how well it’s working out. When accounting for the money supply the market is still down 25% over the past 24 years.
I think it's time to load up on TDS and USM. TMobile is going to buy out US Cellular and TDS owns 84% of US Cellular. Right now you get a 36% discount on US Cellular shares by purchasing it through TDS.
I’m not the type of person to fall for or sum up the entire US economy with a couple strokes when trying to paint the entire picture. I use that website all the time. Some others to consider and even more should be considered than this, but I’m to busy to share the amount of information it would take: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CCLACBW027SBOG https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MYAGM2USM052S If you combine the good with bad, you can start to draw conclusions. These charts aren’t black and white. You have to combine other data a lot of the time and start tallying up the result. It does not look good. Again, way more data to add up than what I’m sharing here.
What's the diffrence between SPY/USM2 and S&P500? When I compare gold vs s&p500 I get that gold beats the market over 1972-2022 I'm using [Macrotrends S&P500](https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data) and [Mactrotrends Gold Prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart). When I use Nasdaq I get closer to your numbers but gold I dont get the same as you, only if you dont account for inflation for only gold. Is it wrong doing like this? Have I missed something?
SPY/ECONOMICS:USM2 with dividends ​ https://preview.redd.it/g158o8lcaibc1.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=cbbccfb3251111324c8b1939693ca209e7e24a59
SPY/ECONOMICS:USM2 without dividends ​ https://preview.redd.it/vwk8zur9aibc1.png?width=2048&format=png&auto=webp&s=80f6e66f7d2d0022ee5a0886e980050fa345ce81
Also just take the M2 money supply claim. I'll admit there are problems with deficits etc. But your chart shows again SPX which ignores dividends. Do SPY/USM2 (not SPX) and make sure the ADJ button in the bottom right is blue. You will see since 1993 there is growth. If you undo the ADJ you will see much lower growth since 1993.
Any target date fund is guaranteed to underperform USM2 and anyone not in the top 1% of earners following the idea to dca into SP500 for retirement is a re.tarded boomer and is ngmi
Op sees the documents. Show it’s going to be a heavy loss this quarter. Gets a bunch of puts…. And on earnings day the stock as he saw missed earnings big time…. Stock proceeds to pump like a mother fucker and Op is broke off those puts. There’s a line of a bunch of companies like this - latest one is USM. Good luck buddy but even with the info doubt it will work out…. Keep us posted though.
I presume you didn't sell anything if you wanna hold as long as possible - keep in mind a few steep red days could erase a year of paper gains. And you could throw darts at NASDAQ tickers and be up 13%+ to the market. Growth names that haven't booked a single profitable quarter are up 1000% YTD. Not trying to crush your spirits but we've been straight up since last October; basing any performance on that timeframe tells you nothing about your capacity as an investor. Your portfolio is a less diversified SPY, which you may consider a safe bet, but let's discuss that. SP500 went up \~8000% in the last \~60 years. What's your thesis for why even a tenth of this will happen again, as oppose to say a major recession or depression or stagflation miring us for the next decade or three? You're effectively betting on the greatest economic golden age in recorded history (post-WW2 economy in the US) + a decoupling of gold to currency type scenario + financialization of the West + hyper-globalization...somehow repeating back to back. Basically betting on 4 black swan events that positively impact SPX happening again. I believe the days of set it and forget it mad gains are behind us as far as US market index funds are concerned. There will always be pockets of opportunity, but you're effectively buying the top on a parabolic hockey stick chart - I don't care that it's on a multi-year timeframe, it's a parabolic chart with the same anatomy as a pump and dump stock. And even if we keep grinding higher, how much more juice do you expect to squeeze from something that's already up 8000%? And if you account for inflation (SPX/USM2), you'll see the sobering reality that all time highs are over 20 years in the rearview mirror, and not returning any time soon. And why do you want to hold as long as possible? Beyond 1Y capital gains, there's no prize for holding longer than the next guy. Goal should be to book as much profit as possible in a manner that suits your style. And I'm not entirely against buy and hold plays, but in this environment it's not my primary pursuit. I'll plug my view that we're already in a trader's market and this will persist for the foreseeable future. We live in an incredibly and increasingly complex global economy with geopolitical seismic shifts happening, and the pole of global economic power slowly but surely moving away from the US. There will be pockets of huge returns (themes like AI, crypto-currencies, individual companies, certain commodities etc.), but the curtain is drawing on the "up and to the right" trend that has persisted in broader US markets since WW2 (80 year cycles anyone?). The one area of consistency will be volatility (not the way the VIX measures, but in the sense we'll see more of an up and down market). Slow, steady, predictable gains out, volatility in. This means learning how to trade (holding for weeks or months vs. years) is an investment in your financial future. If you're dead set on the "passive" investor approach, I'd learn about crypto like it's my job. If you can sift through the trash to find the crypto equivalents of Amazon, Google, Apple etc., it's time well spent.
I didn’t save anything I was just clicking and reading. But USM -7% and TDS -10% at close 🫡
Puts on USM… shit is gonna drop, they don’t have anything new…
TDS/USM are doing some meme shit but they aren’t disclosing anything or commiting to anything and so there’s no real reason YET as I could tell for the stocks to shoot up like that. TDS owns USM but their sister companies and their stocks are weird I got heavily confused with their SEC filings but i think I know bullshit when I smell it
my thoughts exactly.. and i dont like how TDS owns majority of USM but comes in at a lower market cap because of all their debt. dont listen to anything i say tho, i do heating and air conditiong  but it doesnt take an educated regard to see this move wasnt done from a position of power, but at the same time, AI could save us all! ​ however invoulentarily long term investing for the next few weeks until $SPY calls print . until then im cheering from the sidelines
So you read the quarterly call and saw that there were no promises of what they’re going to do and when their going to do it. Me too. It was BS. Position: USM $30 Put 8/18 (3)
No we need the CYBO etf. Cut Your Balls Off. It's an index of all companies that promote cutting off your balls. Next up is the underage self-mutilation ETF, USM. USM to the moon!!!!
Except this time we are in the bubbliest of any bubble that’s ever bubbled. Just look at the money supply increase. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ECONOMICS-USM0/
The USM might take notice if we keep stealing all their crayons.
Well, they printed 41% more money: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S One would imagine prices would adjust accordingly.
TDS Telecom and United States Cellular \*\*\*02/09/2023: \*TDS has a market cap of $1.23B \*USM has a market cap of $1.73B \*TDS owns 82% of USM. 82% of USM = $1.42B \*With TDS you are getting a 13% discount on USM Shares plus the dividend plus the telco and broadband businesses for free versus buying USM Shares straight up. \*Dish, Verizon, T-Mobile, AT&T, American Tower, Crown Castle, SBA Communications, and a Plethora of Private Equity Firms have eyes on TDS/USM Assets. \*\*\*US Cellular holds some very high demand assets: Subscribers: \*4.3M Postpaid Subscribers at $50 ARPU with 1.4% Churn, 493K Prepaid Subscribers at $30 ARPU \*TMUS Market Cap per Postpaid Subscriber is $1800, ATT and Verizon are approximately $2000 but they have many other lines of business beyond what TMUS has. \*Verizon/TracFone Acquisition $340 per Sub, $28 ARPU, 5% Churn \*Private Equity/Consumer Cellular $500 per Sub, $30 ARPU, 2% Churn \*4.3M Postpaid Subscribers at $850 per = $3.6B (Heavily Discounting beyond TMUS / TracFone / Consumer Cellular Valuations) \*493K Prepaid Subscribers at $300 per = $150M Cell Towers: \*4329 Cell Towers. Many Tower Acquisitions in recent years, $400K per give or take At $300K per Tower $1.3B (20% Discount) Spectrum: \*Spectrum Licenses, on the books at $4.7B Discount 50% = $2.35B Los Angeles Partnership: \*Los Angeles Partnership with Verizon $160M in Revenue for 2022 Heavily Discounting to $400M Debt: Stacked up against US Cellular’s Net Debt of $3.1B Postpaid Subscriber Base $3.6B Prepaid Subscriber Base $100M Towers $1.3B Spectrum $2.35B Los Angeles Partnership $400M Total Assets $7.8B Total Net Debt $3.1B 82% of US Cellular Heavily Discounted Asset Value less Debt $4.65B = $3.8B, $33 per Share So with TDS and massively discounting the USM assets you arrive at $33 per Share for TDS just for the Wireless Assets. Add in the Telco/Broadband which can be monetized and TDS massively discounted is flirting with $40 per share if the Carlson family shopped and possibly chopped the thing up for a Tower Company, a Wireless Player, and or a Private Equity Outfit. Now you could argue the Postpaid Subs and Spectrum should be valued together in the subscriber value but notice the heavy discounting I applied to both. More than 50% on the Postpaid Base and 50% of the Spectrum Value I discounted.
The fed said, Let there be $ 16 T and, there was $ 16 T. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL) 4 T to 20 T is 16 T. They "only" created like $7T, but money multiplier. The M1 went from 4T to 12T overnight. What do you do with free money? Buy stock! M3 is more stable and illiquid, but it also jumped up. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S)
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSCICP03USM665S](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSCICP03USM665S) [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S All of those things were happening in 2008 during the financial crisis. Check out the bump in money supply. The fed is dragging it's feet on raising interest rates because it needs inflation to inflate away the unpayable debt accumulated by world governments. They can't increase interest rates substantially without causing massive defaults so they talk about how a big tough 0.75% increase is going to slay the inflation dragon (it isn't). They want inflation in all things except people's wages.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S Yup. Inflation has been slain! The fed has it under control. Whew.
Weird bc this goes back to 1971: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US) and this goes back to 1960: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRLTLT01USM156N](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRLTLT01USM156N)
Chair USM Hyde (middle name, US Marine)
And what do they do to sop up the money that is sloshing around? In the 90's loose money pushed dot com stocks, then when that crashed they printed money, and that pushed up housing. Then when the housing market crashed they just started blatantly printing money (quantitative easing) and that pushed up everything (stocks, crypto, housing, used cars, etc). Now that it's starting to affect things like food and energy it's too late. You can't take the inflation out of one area, without taking it out of everything. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S Look where money supply was 20 years ago, where it is today, and where it appears to be going. Ukraine isn't the issue, it's the distraction.
T-note futures (USM2 / ZB)
Inflation is always and everywhere a monitory phenomenon. There are temporary supply disruptions and the like, but inflation is caused by printing money at a rate in excess of the speed at which the economy is expanding. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S As can be seen from the chart above of the money supply in the US, whether or not the war in Ukraine happens, inflation is out of control.
its an interesting idea (ive been following svol to see how its carry performs) and its not been terrible, but there is currently better carry in USO. SVOL for reference right now holds -28% in UXK2 and -1.5% in USM2 (its rolling the may/june spread now) and just cash otherwise, there are no options (and it only rebalances quarterly) so if you dont put options on in the (upcoming) quarterly rebalance, it will remain just a straight short front month vix futures curve roll down carry trade. the main issue I have with it, is that when the curve if flat and then steepens, it has no way to roll out as a trigger, and youre stuck in the near term future as it moves against you. if its rules had more flexibility as to when to roll or what conditions could trigger positions further out on the curve it would be a better implementation.
Well, the printing of money is not that much when you look at the money supply [M3 - money supply](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S). You’ll see your QE’s effect when you change the scale to log scale.
​ 
Suck my dick USM is mooning before June
Last time the monthly RSI for 30-year T-Bond futures (USM2) was this low was November 1999. However, the RSI of SPY is lower today compared to Nov 1999. Maybe the market is smarter this cycle and is not going to rally as much in the face of tightening conditions. Only time will tell.
I've looked into recession forecasting. Forecasting accuracy is abysmal and even nowcasting is difficult given the lag time and initial release / revision error in a lot of the economic data. I was initially inspired by this blog post: investingforaliving.us/2017/06/16/mapping-the-top-economic-indicators-june-2017/. Here are some citations of relevant papers that I found online: Nymen, 2016, Predicting Economic Recessions using ML Algorithms Silva, 2018, Can Machine Learning Improve Recession Prediction Biau, 2010, Euro area GDP forecasting using random forest approach 2015, Dopke, Predicting Recession With Boosted Regressions Trees David, 2017, Model economic phenomen with CART and Random Forest Algorithms Fornari, 2010, Predicting recession probab with financial variables over multiple horizones Bok, 2017, Macroecon Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data Bandura, 2013, Nowcasting and the real, time data flow Giannone, 2008, Nowcasting The real, time informational content of macroeconomic data Higgins, 2014, GDPNow A model for GDP Nowcasting I put a lot of effort into building classifier models on economic data series, evaluating how to transform the raw data to give best prediction of recession state, evaluating the influence of publication lag and data revisions on accuracy, evaluating the accuracy of forecasts at varying time horizons. I ended up building a multi-factor logistic regression model based on the following economic data series on FRED: UNRATE, ICSA, CCSA, PAYEMS, USCONS, RRSFS, CSCICP03USM665S, IPDCONGD, INDPRO, GACDFSA066MSFRBPHI, AWHMAN, HTRUCKSSAAR, PERMIT, MSACSR, HOUST, T10Y3M, T10Y2Y, NFCI, ANFCI, NFCICREDIT, NFCIRISK, NFCINONFINLEVERAGE, SP500. First live test of the model was the Covid recession. The model was about 5 weeks late in predicting the start of the recession primarily due to publication lag. But NBER didn't recognize and define the official start of the recession until 3-6 months later. Given the very short dip in the market and subsequent rapid recovery it did not provide a usable trading signal. In fact, trading monthly would have locked in the market bottom loss and missed out on recovery. I subsequently built a model based on economic data that is published at a weekly frequency with minimal publishing lag for more timely predictions. It is based on ICSA, CCSA, T10Y3M, T10Y2Y, BAA10Y, NFCI, ANFCI, NFCICREDIT, NFCIRISK, NFCINONFINLEVERAGE, SP500. Here are a few comment on the topic: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/72r57w/which_general_economic_indicators_would_have/dnky88n/
I'm gonna say this again because I'll need more comments for my compilation when this happens, but USM is about to bounce up to $40+ again soon.
USM2, TYM2, FVM2, TUM2 are the four I watch.
I'm just gonna say this once for any lucky retards who stumble upon this absolute monster of a sleeper pick. $USM is going to fucking moon soon
no man. I care for America. I just hate they are abusing the dollar. You wanna know the truth. " Divide SPX/USM2 " in trading view
Look what happened is we were gonna go into recession but saved us. They increased the money supply i.e. M2 like crazy by buying MBS&TB. So although it looks like our stock market S&P500 went above the before covid lvls. It aint so. Smart money know all of this. They simple used SPX/USM2 chart. Saw the double top happened in nov 2021 and sold or rather sold half (coz its what they do ) and shorted with rest. Now if you see the SPX/USM2 its looking super scary. 0.18 lvl is where you need to see a bounce and thats at -21% currently we are in 15-16%. So rest 4-5% you will fall next week. After that question remain what happens if FED sell their balance sheet too? I am guessing you will fall -20% more but not rn. Its for q4 imo.
1) You can look at graphs of different money supplies, IIRC M2 and M1 were suspiciously discontinued during 2008 but this is M3 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S 2) Zimbabwe isn't equivalent to the US GDP and other factors like being the reserve currency for the world. Also they changed how inflation is measured leading to this lower number going off the old numbers we're at 13.5 3. Just wait 4. Besides American sanctions and America doing dick-smashes in the country nothing stops them.
AKA math https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S
Yeah I must have printed this US money supply chart out to paper and then used it to roll up and smoked https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S Lol
The question is, how much did your wealth go up? We measure out wealth in terms of dollars, but the purchasing power of dollars has continually gone down, and is now going down in huge leaps and bounds due to money printing to cover government debt. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S Buy real assets in order to preserve your purchasing power. I personally think assets like gold and silver are the safest assets out there as they are real and haven't participated in the insane run up in asset values.
False. Here is USD M3 money supply: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S If you put the graph in log scale, there is noticeable bump, but nowhere close to 40%
Uhhh... The Fed?? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S
1. Incorrect. [M3 Money Supply](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S) 2. Technically true, but SPY was created in 1993, so there haven't been many bull runs to compare. I am not saying that there won't be crash.
thanks for this, but just to reiterate, i think you misread or I was unclear. I don’t support this shit in any way. I was simply stating that I believe a specific new policy of USM was to build low yield nukes...meaning “i could be wrong” or “don’t quote me” about that fact. That’s all.
Tomorrow I’m gonna buy $TDS, $DISH and $USM! 🚀🚀🚀
I haven’t heard about that, but gonna YOLO and get some $DISH and $USM while I’m at it
>What “sudden influx of money?” https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MABMM301USM189S
I am a USM welcome brother to the AMC Ape army
Looking at USM I sold too early. Damn.
Tinfoil hat me thinks USM will be a target of consolidation. I'm a random idiot on reddit not a finance professional though.
You know telecom? Thoughts on USM?
ASO and USM are my conviction plays
$USM 5th largest telecom US. Pretty decent financials and large insider % owned reporting two insider purchases the last few days.
Things that didn't massively tank for me today: sporting goods $ASO and cellular $USM.
I'm too retarded to trade options. Still trying to learn. Could someone who isn't offer an opinion on $USM 35c July?
Is anyone else having trouble viewing USM’s chart on Robinhood mobile?
ASO sells guns and USM sells burner phones for drug dealers.
Buying ASO and USM. My thesis is the numbers look good and I hope they go up.
Could someone not retarded look at $USM and give me an opinion?