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WBUY and MLGO: Exhibits #1,001 and #1,002 on why you stay away from shitty Asian small cap IPOs
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Chinas has NEVER follow any trade agreement since they joined WTO 25 years ago.. Why should they start with it now?
Politics aside, China has never really kept to any trade agreements. It doesn't follow any WTO rules, or any other rules of international court or law either. And so far, it has gotten away with it because no other country is actually doing anything about them. International courts and treaties are more of a suggestion than something to abide by. Hell, they haven't even curbed fentanyl precursor sales to drug cartels. The US is basically the only country with the balls to do anything about it, even if its going to cause them to loose shoot themselves in the foot. While I may not agree with the tariffs he put on every other country, I do agree in principle, of trying to get fair trade agreements with China, because right now, doing business in China is inherently unfair, since you can't own land or rights and even have to share tech, and they don't respect copyrights, but it isn't the same when their companies do business in other countries. That being said, I'm fine with re-empowering China if it means I don't have to pay over 30% tariffs for my imports. Low tech simple consumer product manufacturing were never coming back to the US anyways (profit margins were never worth building domestically, only higher quality precision equipment was the US's forte, like airplane parts). Whether we get things back cheap again, or the tariffs go back up and we have to source from more expensive other countries and China's economy gets another set back, it doesn't matter.
In 2001, CCP-China joined the WTO, with hopes it would integrate globally and reform. Instead, it’s grown wealthier while the U.S. faces challenges. The Chinese people, distinct from the ruling party, lack a voice in their system. So, is CCP-China’s WTO role working? **The Impact:** * U.S. trade deficit with CCP-China: $400B+ yearly. * 3.4M U.S. jobs lost. * Tech theft costing $600B annually. **What’s Happening?** * Companies drawn by low costs, only to lose tech. * Products copied, competitors outpriced. * Global projects like Belt and Road: Aid or control? **What Else?** * 23 U.S. complaints against CCP-China for rule-breaking. * Loans burdening poorer nations. * Control over key infrastructure. This feels less like fair trade and more like a strategic game. Tariffs have pressured CCP-China, but the WTO hasn’t enforced accountability. Should CCP-China stay in the WTO? Could free nations trade better alone?
Since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, the world hoped CCP-China would evolve—grow its economy, embrace democracy. But has that happened? CCP-China joined the WTO in 2001, sold as a step toward global integration. Instead, it’s gotten richer while the U.S. and others have paid a steep price. Let’s be clear: CCP-China isn’t the Chinese people. The Chinese people have no say, no vote, no voice under the Communist Party’s grip. So, what’s the deal with CCP-China’s role in the WTO? **What’s the Cost?** 1.U.S.-CCP-China trade deficit: $400B+ yearly. 2. 3.4M American jobs gone 3. IP theft costing up to $600B annually. 4. American middle class? Hurting. **What’s CCP-China Doing?** 1. Luring companies with cheap labor, then stealing tech 2. Copying products, bankrupting competitors 3. Belt and Road Initiative: Aid or a global power grab for ports and infrastructure? ....... **Hard Truths:** * 23 U.S. WTO complaints against CCP-China for rule-breaking. * Predatory loans trapping poor nations. * Strategic ports quietly under CCP control. This feels less like free trade and more like economic warfare. Trump’s tariffs shook CCP-China—unemployment, unrest, even cracks in the Party’s control. But the WTO hasn’t held them accountable for dodging agreements with the U.S. and the world. So, what’s the fix? Let's take down the CCP.
Um yes there is😂😂, its called being a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). China has been skirting WTO laws since 2001 when the joined😂
China has been violating trade agreements since it joined the WTO in 2001.
TACO violated the trade act with Canada and Mexico, both the USMCA and the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), of which all three countries are members.
Some people will never learn the difference between propaganda and truth. Most of what you get on Reddit now is propaganda. If it's "Trump bad" it gets posted and upvoted and any dissent gets immediately banned. The tariffs were over hyped by the Democrats. If there is one issue that is bipartisan it is foreign trade. For instance, Trump blocks nomination of judges to the WTO. Why? So we were weren't getting a fair deal and we needed retaliatory tariffs. And what did Biden do? He also blocked nominations to the WTO. Google Nancy Pelosi tariffs on China and you will see she was advocating for retaliatory tariffs against China for a long time. And let's be clear here: China is fucked. They have more people over 50 than under 50 and their birthrate is very low. Meanwhile, they have 100 million more males than females and those men will never find a wife. Meanwhile, the women are getting married much older. They feel they have unlimited choice and maybe they do, but they don't have unlimited time and there's a point where even a starving man won't eat spoiled fruit. It will take at least 25 years to produce a generation of 20 year olds and China hasn't even started. By 2050 their population will be around 500 million. The claim is that right now they have 1.4 billion but their census is wrong and including Covid it's believed to actually only be around 900 million. The cost of labor in China has gone up 12X in 20 years and they are no longer competitive. The US was always going to decouple from China and I'm amazed all the people on the Left who protested about the Uyghur genocide aren't thrilled that the US is finally punishing China, but virtue signalers are a fickle lot and always have been. They care until it actually costs them something. But anyway, China will be lucky to be a single country by 2030 and there history has had repeated cycles where empires devolve into warlordism and since Xi has purged anyone who might replace him then it will likely go once the Chinese are sick of his shit. But I digress. My employers purchased a few million pounds of steel before the tariffs hit. It's not like Trump didn't give people a chance to prepare. If you see businesses suffer then it's likely due to poor leadership rather than tariffs. Even Apple flew in millions of iphones before the tariffs hit, and you know they will sell them at the tariff price and make record profits because it's fucking Apple and their users have drunk that Kool Aid and are figuratively living in Jonestown and can never leave. But I digress.
Failure to adhere to the court ruling (after the appeals) would probably result in WTO penalties and complete loss of trusted partner status, thus making trade with everyone more expensive. And giving everyone else a legitimate excuse to impose trade barriers on US companies. All of this mess could've been avoided in sound minds prevailed, but well here we are.
So if Trump wants Tarriffs but the court refuses to allow him. He can as President pull out of the WTO and cancel all trade deals. This would by default place automatic tariffs on every country.
I thought this was a US court? What does WTO have to do with it? Idk it doesn't do anything really now.
There is another option he can take but it’s much worse. Pull out of the WTO and invalidate all trade treaties. Without trade treaties free trade would evaporate and everything would be tariffed.
It’s easy. Either pay the tariff or your shipment isn’t allowed through customs. What do you think will cost more, paying the tariff or paying storage for all of your shipping containers that can’t be unloaded from the shipping vessel? CBP wins no matter what, they control the flow of goods through customs. The legal system doesn’t allow these foreign companies to sue the US in our court system. They would have to sue through the World Trade Organization. This is not a fast process. Several countries filed against the US over steel tariffs in 2019 the ruling wasn’t handed down until 2022. The only recourse is for that country to collect tariffs against the US. Now the key here would be that rulings from WTO aren’t enforceable like court judgments so in the end the US still wins.
In that case, it would likely wind up in WTO arbitration, where he would again get his shit packed. This moron needs to have it spelled out for him that he’s not going to get it like he wants it, as far as tariffs go.
It's different because it's every facet of every component being produced by the government at the expense of the government. The subsidies Tesla received from the US are miniscule in comparison. Tesla's subsidies from China were essentially the cost the CCP paid for all Tesla IP and trade secrets tech that moved into China. US/EU/UK car companies in China are absolutely NOT benefiting from China's subsidies because they exclude themselves from the copy/cat supply chain that China has built because selling those products international would violate WTO...China gets around that by being classified a "developing country", which is utter nonsense in terms of industrial production. > Sorry other countries are... No one cares what anyone else does when it's on a level playing field. It's not, which is why the US is blocking Chinese cars and looking to subsidize their own industries that China has taken over in this way, e.g. semiconductor fabrication and electronics manufacturing. (But, Trump's corruption goals seem to have delayed the CHIPS Act).
The WTO bans tariffs on information flows (read services) so that would be a legal nightmare.
The 🍊is so full of 💩 1. EU Formation Purpose Claim: The EU was formed to take advantage of the U.S. on trade. • Source: European Union official history – EUropa.eu • Facts: The EU evolved from post-WWII treaties (Treaty of Rome 1957, Maastricht 1993) to promote peace, economic integration, and avoid future wars—not to target any external economy. • Conclusion: False. No credible economic source supports this claim. ⸻ 2. Trade Barriers & VAT Taxes Claim: The EU uses powerful trade barriers and VAT taxes to harm the U.S. • Trade Barriers: • Source: World Trade Organization (WTO) • Facts: Both EU and U.S. have average applied MFN tariffs between 2–4%. Sectors like agriculture or autos may be higher, but such differences are normal in trade policy. • Conclusion: Partially true, but exaggerated. Both sides apply trade rules within WTO norms. • VAT Taxes: • Source: OECD / European Commission • Facts: VAT is applied equally to all goods, domestic and foreign. The U.S. does not have VAT, but that doesn’t make the EU’s VAT discriminatory. • Conclusion: Misleading. VAT is not a protectionist tool. ⸻ 3. Corporate Penalties and Lawsuits Claim: EU fines U.S. companies unfairly. • Source: European Commission Competition Directorate • Facts: The EU fined companies like Google ($5B), Apple ($14B in tax), Meta—based on antitrust laws or GDPR violations. • U.S. Comparison: The U.S. FTC and DoJ also fine companies, but regulatory standards differ. • Conclusion: Subjective. Based on enforceable EU laws—not uniquely targeted at U.S. firms. ⸻ 4. Monetary Manipulation Claim: The EU engages in monetary manipulation. • Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) External Sector Report • Facts: The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains eurozone stability and inflation targets. The euro is not undervalued in a way that meets U.S. Treasury thresholds for “currency manipulation.” • Conclusion: False. No reputable institution considers the EU a currency manipulator. ⸻ 5. U.S.-EU Trade Deficit ($250B) Claim: U.S. has a $250B trade deficit with the EU. • Source: U.S. Census Bureau – Trade Data • Facts (2023 data): • Goods trade deficit: ~$202 billion • Services trade surplus: ~$60 billion • Net trade deficit: closer to $140–$150 billion • Conclusion: Exaggerated. The number is inflated by ignoring services. ⸻ 6. Proposed 50% Tariff Claim: Trump recommends a 50% tariff on EU goods. • Source: U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), WTO • Facts: A 50% blanket tariff would violate WTO rules, risk EU retaliation, and likely raise prices for U.S. consumers. • Historical Parallel: 2018 U.S. tariffs on EU steel (25%) triggered retaliatory tariffs on American goods (e.g., Harley-Davidson, bourbon). • Conclusion: Policy proposal, but economically risky.
The EU will sit back and relax. 🥭 will brainfart and sign an EO to implement 50% tariffs on June 1st. The EU will then respond with reciprocal tariffs, after which trade talks break down. Trade between the US and the EU will then happen on WTO terms (which are really unrefined) as tariffs creep up a la Gyna. Market will take a shit as both have absolutely massive trade volumes with each other.
Cutting imports from economies with weaker currencies will cause shortages and raise the cost of medicines or remove them completely. The US , in its imposition of tariffs here in Australia , did so when we had a huge deficit. If that was not bad enough it came with a demand from big pharma to dismantle our Prescription Benefits Scheme. Private health insurers also demanded an effective end to universal healthcare in Australia. This scheme forms a part of our Medicare universal health scheme. Public hospitals are free of charge in Australia . The PBS negotiates bulk purchases at the best price for the majority of medicines with a focus on generics which are based on expired patents. It also pays rebates to pharmaceutical companies supplying approved medications and this is a form of subsidy to keep prices low. The average cost of prescriptions in Australia is around $15. Newer, horrendously expensive new drugs are usually not covered by PBS but can be prescribed at full price if the patient wishes. Australia , a free trade nation , politely told the US to fuck off and that it would take it to the WTO. In the meantime this moronic tariff war has created a surge of gold exports and has Australia currently holding a trade surplus with the US. The US is ruled by nasty morons and will drive it into the ground with ordinary people paying the price.
In all likelihood? Slowly and over the next four administrations. Or the world bands together and the WTO sets a policy that the US must follow, and 🥭 eats some humble and accepts it - but that seems unlikely. Also probably invading Panama.
gina said fuck your deal we're going to WTO
The rich don't pay income taxes. It's the middle class and upper middle class that pay them. Lower taxes also create wealth because it encourages people to work more. There is a direct correlation between tax rates and hours worked. And of course a direct correlation between hours worked and wealth. Tariffs are bad, it would be MUCH better to cut spending but as far as taxes goes it's not as bad as people are saying. I am old enough to remember the protests against free trade, about how bad it is for worksrs who now have to compete with workers from other countries. Protectionism does protect your jobs and industries, it's why every country has them. Bernier Sanders on the topic: "When the U.S. joined the WTO in 1996, Sanders says the nation's trade deficit was $96 billion. There are estimates that this year's deficit will be more than $700 billion. And Sanders says this country's participation in the WTO is largely responsible for the growing deficit. (Sanders) "What these large corporations essentially want is American workers to be forced to compete against desperate people in China who have no rights, who make thirty cents an hour. And I think that is just unfair to the middle class of this country. " https://americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aacip-211-11kh1jzk
None paywalled version, but state media: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202505/1334311.shtml Basically they claim its anti-dumping measure allowed by WTO.
U.S. imposes a ton of anti dumping duties on PRC for decades. The idea is as long as implemented according to WTO rules these administrative duties are legal and not retaliatory or punitive. PRC uses that loophole to do stuff like this.
China has maintained higher tariffs on US goods than vice versa for as long as I can see. In the year 2000, 16 years before Trump, the average Chinese weighted tariff on US goods was 7x higher than US tariffs on their products. If tariffs are such an outrageous affront than China is guilty of the same BS they are complaining about today. The reality is it took a destabilizing trade war for China to lower tariffs to near (or beyond) reciprocal levels on their number one trade partner. How is that “fair”? China has been cheating the WTO for 75 years.
That would be hilarious. India went to the WTO a few days ago about tariff's as well and putting some of their own on to counter 'Mericas
From bug-hunter *This is, unfortunately, going to require a lot of discussion of events within the AH 20 year rule, as we are comparing three things: the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, the ongoing trade conflict with China that started in 2018 and never truly ended, and whatever Trump will do in the future. Importantly, we never actually removed all the tariffs from that trade war (such as the 60% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles), and that both candidates in this past election discussed some amount of increased tariffs against China, under the explanation of dealing with Chinese unfair trade practices (such as rampant IP theft). The reason for the tariffs is very different, and that means the character of them is as well, Smoot-Hawley was purely protectionist against the world. The anti-China tariffs are not wholly partisan as there is a bipartisan consensus that something should be done about long-term Chinese IP theft, industrial espionage, and purchase of American businesses with valuable IP (all three of which predate the sub's 20 year rule, but have accelerated). It should be noted that all three of these things also exist internally within the Chinese economy, with stories of Chinese inventors demoing a product only to find someone managed to see the demo and release it before they could get it onto the market. Importantly, the US is not the only one with this complaint, and Europe also has this same disagreement with China, though Europe also has protested the US's refusal to abide by WTO rulings that found the US in violation based on its actions. Notably, it was the Biden Administration that refused to abide by the rulings, as they came during that administration. What many detractors are remembering was the fact that the administration had to pay out over $30 billion to rescue American farmers (especially in soybeans) to protect them from the worst fallout of Chinese retaliatory tariffs, that led to an increase in farm bankruptcies and a decrease in farm income. This should be an important differentiator right there - the Smoot-Hawley Tariff kneecapped the national economy, the 2018 trade war kneecapped a subset of an industry, and Congress can bail out soybean farmers easier than they can bail out Ford. Part of that is because the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was not generally targeted at specific nations, and instead targeted everyone. As a result, most of America's major trading partners enacted retaliatory tariffs. Goods, generally, are fungible, so if China isn't buying, you can sell to Brazil, for example. Thus, a bilateral trade war might be damaging, but not to the same level as declaring a trade war with the entire world all at once. While Trump has also discussed other tariffs, he does not appear to be considering major tariffs against Japan or Europe, for example (at the moment). A second major difference is a wholly different concept of supply chains in 1930 vs. now. It's not just an issue that American manufacturing and consumer sales are getting things that might be under tariffs from China, but due to a drive to reduce warehousing costs, there is rarely a lot of stock on hand. Some factories strive for just in time logistics, so that a minimal amount of inventory is kept (saving warehouse space), which is great until you suddenly don't have supply. Moreover, consolidation means you have less choices of where to buy inputs and goods. In the case of a trade war with China and the evolution of consumer goods being much more complex, there's going to be a lot more businesses who suddenly find themselves forced to significantly raise prices and lower production (as higher prices will lower demand), or try and find another supplier (who may not currently exist). As a result, the effect of the Smoot-Hawley tariff wasn't instantaneous, but the effect of the short 2018-2020 trade war was felt pretty quickly in some industries (especially farmers). There's a huge political difference in that industrialists in 1930 generally wanted tariffs to protect their businesses, and many industries in 2024 have a much more mixed view of tariffs. Even some companies that benefit on one end from tariffs may pay a hefty price on another, because they also use Chinese inputs. The speed of effect and speed of information means that we may see rapid requests to modify tariffs and see those requests granted depending on who is asking. In essence, while there may be a promise of a flat large tariff, the last round of this game showed us that a Trump administration is absolutely willing to follow a targeted approach. It's also very important to note that business decisionmaking is a lot different. In 1930, if Ford lost access to an imported part, they might just stand up a new factory to build it. This is not the modern mindset for most companies - instead they will look for a new supplier. For some industries, there may not be one, or it can't handle the new volume of orders. Even if they can find a new supplier, regulatory and consumer demands mean that they will have to do more internal testing to make sure the new supplied part is compatible. Another difference is that there was no World Trade Organization in 1930, and there is now. The US both greatly benefits from the free trade endorsed by the WTO while also just ignoring it when it wants to. Thus, the political effect of eroding WTO authority was simply not an issue under Smoot-Hawley, but it is now. The amount of the tariff matters. What is covered by the tariff matters. Who Trump targets matters. Whether it sparks other countries to join in matters. How China responds matters. Most Americans support efforts to try to make China play fair (whatever that means to individual Americans, take your guess), but it's perfectly rational to support that effort and also not want someone whom you also feel is mercurial and shortsighted to be running those efforts. * Tldr: who knows.
Uniform strategies? Nobody was doing anything about it. No one. Multilateralism requires will from your allies. In this case, our allies were too busy selling fancy purses, watches, and autos to China to do anything about the blatent WTO violations. Now that China has tired of luxury goods and built an auto industry that makes Germany's look quaint, Europeans are scrambling to come up with a response. Too little, too late. Decades of inaction requires an unprecedented response. Like 145% tariffs. Now do we have their attention?
Besides violating WTO agreements, stealing IP, manipulating currency and other unfair trade practices I'd also say china did nothing wrong
The WTO has no practical power against the US anyway. The few times they tried, the US has generally said "lol try"
The WTO only serves businesses and cares nothing about workers. If I had anything to say about it I would have the USA resign from the WTO, they just get in the way. One example" Notice how you don't see "dolphin safe" labels on Tuna anymore? That is because the WTO rules that regulation requiring fishermen to use methods that would not kill dolphins was illegal discrimination against poor countries. So enjoy you tuna, now 15% dolphin.
Thanks to Clinton letting them in WTO.
The thing Demonrats will never admit is that China declared war on the USA when it joined the WTO in 2001 and has been waging that war since then. Any dumb fck who doesn't understand that we are at war with China is not paying attention. China has a 100-year war plan, which it has been executing since joining the WTO, with the goal of destroying the US and becoming the only world superpower. We now have a president who recognizes this and is willing to take on the challenge and defeat the enemy at all costs. Yes, China is officially classified as a developing country by the World Trade Organization (WTO). This status is based on China's self-designation as a developing nation when it joined the WTO in 2001, which allows it certain flexibilities in trade rules, such as longer implementation periods for WTO agreements and special provisions for economic development. However, this classification is contentious, as some countries, like the United States, argue that China's economic size and global influence make it less fitting for developing country status. Despite this, the WTO does not have a formal process to change a country's self-designated status, so China retains this label.
"MOST FAVORED NATION'S POLICY" Dude hates the WTO yet applied WTO/GATT rules to drug prices. Amazing.
Billy Clinton, who got China into the WTO going from a third world communist shithole to a wealthier than you communist shithole, that owns your balls?
Completely wrong perspective, this is what happened and you should know the perpetrators. America had production and manufacturing until the CEOs, shareholders and political elites in their endless greed wanted to increase their profit margins by outsourcing American jobs and know-how to cheap labor countries. Let's call them "traitors" so you get the picture. Billy Clinton, the good democrat from the Oral Office did everything he could to get China, a deranged near-collapse communist third world country in the 80ies, into the WTO, which also the Bushes (Neocons=Democrats=Uniparty) really really likes, because who doesn't like bigger profit margins acquired with cheap labor and slave labor, while fucking over the country whose president you are and destroy it for generations to come, for a quick buck. Fast forward to the shitty dystopian future the created, 2025. China manufactures all your shit and has all your contruction plans and factories, while still being a communist shithole, that got massively upgraded with the wealth transfered from America, so enjoy your new overlords the traitors sold you out to for personal gain.
> Not sure if this means the developing world will no longer get medicine WTO can issue compulsory licenses for manufacturing drugs without IP holder approval if US drug companies refuse to manufacture & sell into poorer countries. generic manufacturers can then step in and fill the void.
if US drug companies withdraw from entire countries the WTO allows for issuing compulsory licenses for the production of generics without authorization by IP holders. so its more like US companies would lose market share to generic manufacturers.
The irony is that anti global free trade is a liberal idea. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Seattle_WTO_protests
A few scratching on a napkin is not a trade deal. They are so granular and specific as to be wildly boring. An excerpt from the USMCA. “Egg and Egg Products: 1.67 million increasing to ten million dozen eggs and egg-equivalent products in year six of the agreement, growing one percent for an additional 10 years. Canada has agreed to allow 30 percent of import licenses for shell egg imports to be granted to new entrants as well. As with chicken, the United States will still be eligible to export up to 21.37 million dozen egg and egg-equivalent products under Canada’s WTO tariff rate quota regime.” That stuff takes time. The USMCA took two years. The TPP took seven.
Yes, but it is because of: 1. The alliance between insurance and pharma companies in the US in particular. 2. Other countries can't afford those prices, so they started producing generics, pharma freaked out, went to the US and the WTO (there are a few famous cases from the 90's and 00's maybe before and after). Realized they couldn't win, so they had to lower prices for a bunch of stuff to be able to compete. I don't think anyone here is against lowering prices, the problem is that these are the result of unbridled capitalism that the US has championed and made other countries play into for decades. It seems unrealistic that the US will just force pharama to lower prices, make them rise prices in other countries, and somehow, it's gonna work out. It's just not. What's just mind blowing, is that this administration shouts communism every time they don't like something, and yet, price control is completely against capitalism, and market freedom. So, ok, they are for market manipulation by the government, but that somehow is not communism? And this is different from regulations or antitrust laws, or trying to make things fair, this is just someone thinking that saying: do this, to a company with an executive order that can be challenged in court is gonna do anything.
I say we screw China send the Chinese citizens back to the villages to eat fish, rice and dirt wasn't it Bill Clinton and the Democrats, who invited them to the WTO and screw us ever since? The Chinese have tried to poison us and kill us with their fentanyl with a bamboo flooring with the drywall and baby formula and other stuff I forgotten about that they sent over here.
Violating WTO rules. Hacking into private US networks. Infiltrating US universities and companies to steal IP. The list goes on... educate yourself.
Yes of course we all know this. It's about China's IP theft, economic espionage, WTO violations, currency devaluation program, and dumping of goods from government subsidized industries. Yes of course this is about much more than just trade.
China has purposely taken control of the supply of a lot of vital portions of our society. The easiest one being rare earth minerals mainly magnets that go in every electric motor. This isn’t just a numbers game. It’s the fact that China is still counted as a 3rd world country by the WTO, they steal our intellectual property and we can’t litigate. Then they require our companies that do operate in China to have a Chinese partner that owns 51% of the company once they reach a certain size. And finally their tariffs are way out of proportion. You can hate trump, hate how he is doing things, but you can’t ignore the fact China is not this backwoods 3rd world country just starting to grow: they are an economic powerhouse and need to play fair.
When you devalue your currency and reduce prices on your goods (Which you can do when you're state subsidized, but it's a practice frowned upon by members who wish to be in good standing with WTO) A hypothetical for you, 50 lbs of steel costs $50. Trump puts 100% tariffs on it, it now costs the importer 50 for the steel and 50 for the tariff. But if China were to devalue their currency and reduce prices (another practice which is frowned upon and the #1 reason RMB will never be the reserve currency) it now costs the us 25 for the steel, and 25 for the tariffs. The lose in this scenario? Chinese exporters, effectively paying the tariff by way of taking less profits. [https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/who-paying-trade-war](https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/who-paying-trade-war) Have you heard headlines talking about China devaluing its currency and having no idea what that means? Here's your answer.
To be fair, free trade only works when trade is actually bilaterally free. The WTO purposely allows protectionism, for good reason -to help developing nations, but it can be abused. Furthermore, we have seen trade becoming a weakness - like during the COVID lockdowns, and EU energy dependence on Russia while Russia invades a NATO friendly country. American consumers do want cheap goods, because the consumer is largely willfully ignorant and self serving. National security and long term deterioration of independence doesn’t register in the mind of the consumer. That doesn’t mean the consumer is right. It’s a tough situation, and I don’t agree with Trump on his approach. However, he does recognize the elephant in the room.
You’re kidding, right? They stay true to their agreement? They’ve broken every agreement they’ve ever made all the way back from GATT, WTO , and Tokyo Round. there’s just no way to hold them accountable You see if a Chinese company has a problem in the United States they can take it to court If a US company in China has a problem, they can’t go to Chinese courts. They don’t have access.
Don’t forget most countries already have close to free trade with each other, especially rich ones. There’s no need for ‘new deals’, they just keep doing what they’re already doing but without the US. Yes that is worse than before, but don’t get stuck in mangos deal making logic. We have the WTO not the back of a van outside Wendy’s.
This is not new. China has been colonizing with the belt and road initiative which the U.S. pays for. (Look up China and black rock) they have been taking advantage of the U.S. and other western powers for years. They bribed Clinton for most favored trade status and entrance into the WTO with no stipulations on human rights or ip protection. Chinese companies traded on western exchanges are not under any obligation to report honest numbers in earnings and have been deseptive for years. I did make good money early on in baidu and a few other companies but even if they get hurt in the tariff issue (which they will) it will not be reported. Xi with all his power is scared shitless of civil unrest. Modern China is not accustomed to factories closing and job loss. They already have an unknown number of zombie companies.
Donald Trump knows more about economics than most of these so-called experts. He's been saying this stuff for 40 years. We're a bunch of suckers with horrible leadership that's only about enriching themselves while selling our country down the river. Trump takes a dollar salary and donates the rest. How about China stop stealing are patients and making cheap knock offs which is against WTO rules
Neither am I, I'm merely laying down the facts while keeping almost all other things like the national saving rate and cultural norms and ability to forgo pain totally out of it. 1.4Bn is indeed a lot of people but as many many economists have pointed out, China has a ageing population and almost half are retired. then include children and I wouldn't put the working population at more than 500m. Remember that China has a pension system and thus almost all of those retired are receiving a pension. Alot of the companies in China are SOEs and we must also include government bureaucracy in there too which takes out more who will not be affected. Much of the workforce is also domestic service based workers. So even at 3% of the full 500m, that is only affecting 15m workers. We can talk about the whether chinese GDP figures are correct or not all day but 15% of worldwide exports are coming from the WTO which I assume can be somewhat trusted? Now remember that much of Chinese GDP relates to infrastructure and domestic service based industries. If indeed 15% of exports relates to 3% of GDP, this would put exports at around 20% of overall GDP. Even if we increase that to 30% of GDP, we're still sitting at 4.5% of overall GDP. I can only show you numbers and logic, what you do with that logic is entirely up to you. But trust me, I doubt the number of workers being affected in China is higher than the amount of workers being affected in the Transportation industry alone in the US. Essentially why there is widespread panic of Americans while most Chinese are not even blinking. China is just taking this time to woo other countries while the US is battling a trade war with the entire world and pissing off all its allies including the only two on its borders.
It could be for a number of goals which could be for less reliance on China, boosting domestic production, reducing our trade imbalance, or increasing trades with other nations., I also think that China was specifically targeted because they are by far our biggest importers and they are actively working against us politically. No, the goal is not to cripple our economy, it was to level the playing field against a cheating China who has taken advantage of the US and other countries this past 40 years. They have cheated, lie, and steal IP since their entrance into the WTO. They should have been thrown out of it as they are the ones who have the most complaints against them than any other WTO member countries combined. Actually, we do have many friends. Long withstanding alliances don't just get cut in due to a change in presidents. They would rather deal with us than a totalitarian government like the CCP when it comes to trade. We also know who is backing Russia economically, so it is against ours and EU interest to continue to trade with them to the extent we do.
This is not how an open market works. Here US along with other countries should have forced labor laws in all countries through WTO, and should have isolated countries without labor laws and minimum wages. And it is not just the cheap labor why US businesses moved outside of US. It is an issue of strategical development of industries that needs a long term vision and dedication. US cannot produce as many things as they are consuming. US is a rich country (USD is valued high because of other geopolitical reason). A rich person cannot expect to have trade balance with all his/her employees. That's what happens with US. Once US stops bullying, using other means to control oil nations, and world stops using USD for most of the transactions, USD will lose it's value and everyone will be in the same playing field.
Not to mention the amount the exporter is willing to help pay to get their goods to the American market. The 25% tariffs Chinese goods have been subjected to is a drop in the bucket and does nothing to encourage the CCP to operate ethically in the WTO. Love Trump or hate him, the CCP needs to feel the heat if we want to see real change.
The frustrating thing is, I actually agree with him on this point, though he has so thoroughly destroyed any hope of bringing China in line with WTO rules through his own stupidity that China is going to be a hostile actor for the foreseeable future. Trump ripped up the Trans Pacific Partnership in 2017 before it even got off the ground (which was an international trading bloc of Pacific rim countries that would have forced China to play fair), he then started a trade war with China for no reason, and now with his current term he has greatly escalated a trade war with China. The United States has lost all credibility to lead these kinds of international efforts. It pisses me off because China's xenophobic and hostile manner of dealing with the rest of the world is a major problem, and Trump is stupidly doing everything in his power to make it even worse. Screaming about closed markets while your tariffing literally every country on the planet is a new level of insane, and the Chinese are just laughing about how mind numbingly stupid anyone could be to have voted for such a thoroughly illiterate retard.
I don't think you understand what global reserve currency means. It's not something the WTO just declares. It is a whole bunch of individual decisions by non-Americans about what currency to hold, what currency to do business in, and what bonds to buy. In that sense, the world really does get to vote on reserve currency. And the inflation thing... just look at the fucking charts on any individual currency and its inflation through covid and its dxy value. You will see the relationship. With China is isn't as clear because they had a huge and artificially driven real estate market crash and response in the middle of all that. But you can essentially always see a relationship between relative inflation and relative dollar value... Again, obviously. Such basic economics
So which one is truth? EU said they are filling complaints with WTO or UK has a trade deal?
Because nothing tariff related has happened yet or shown in the hard data. Normal people paying more at the grocery store does not lower stocks too much, recessions and global financial crises do. Overall the market will still suffer from this tariff stuff, it depends on chinas reaction as all these trade deals will hit their industries and leave them in the cold (if the trade deals even happen). This UK deal was useless as we already have a trade surplus with the UK anyway. You need to look at the EU which are already planning a response and have filed a complaint to the WTO. Japanese are also frustrating, and China is China.
|ctor|Pre-Liberation Day (Before May 8, 2025)|Post-Liberation Day (May 8, 2025)|Current Trade Deal (May 8, 2025)| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |**UK Cars to US**|25% (April 2025 Trump tariff); 2.5% before April 2025 (WTO rate)|Reduced to 10% (lower-tariff quotas, partial relief from 25%)|10% (same as Post-Liberation Day, per deal terms)| |**UK Steel to US**|25% (April 2025 Trump tariff); 0% before April 2025 (Biden-era quota deal)|Reduced to 10% (lower-tariff quotas, partial relief)|10% (same as Post-Liberation Day, per deal terms)| |**UK Aluminum to US**|10% (April 2025 Trump tariff); 0% before April 2025 (Biden-era quota deal)|Reduced to \~7-10% (partial relief, exact rate TBD)|\~7-10% (same as Post-Liberation Day, per deal terms)| |**Other UK Goods to US**|10% (April 2025 Trump blanket tariff); 0-3.7% before April 2025 (WTO rates, e.g., 0% for pharmaceuticals)|10% (no change for non-targeted goods)|10% (same as Post-Liberation Day, deal focuses on cars/steel)| |**US Cars to UK**|10% (UK global tariff, post-Brexit)|Reduced (exact rate TBD, likely 0-5% for quotas)|Reduced (same as Post-Liberation Day, likely 0-5% for quotas)| |**US Beef to UK**|12% + specific duties (£100-£200/100 kg, EU-style tariffs)|Reduced for compliant beef (e.g., no hormones, likely 0-5% for quotas)|Reduced (same as Post-Liberation Day, 0-5% for compliant beef)| |**US Poultry to UK**|10-22% (e.g., 10.9% for fresh chicken)|No change (chlorinated poultry banned, limited relief)|No change (same as Post-Liberation Day, standards upheld)| |**Other US Goods to UK**|2% average (WTO rates, e.g., 0% for pharmaceuticals, 4-7% for textiles)|No change (deal focuses on cars/beef)|No change (same as Post-Liberation Day)| |**UK Digital Services Tax**|2% on US tech firms (£800M annually)|2% (no change in deal)|2% (same as Post-Liberation Day, future talks pending)|
Idk I still feel like a major part of all this is still to somehow influence the world trade organization in some fundamental way. If the problem is predominantly china trade practices and china is not explicitly breaking the rules but “abusing” them then no new trade deal with other countries would quite hit the mark we are aiming for cause it is not feasible to say to every country do not trade with china or something along those lines cause we do not have an alternative trade solution. So count out a “boycott” of some sort on china. We can’t get the imports from other trade partners that would make anywhere as much sense as china either or flat out anywhere else like rare earth minerals. So why all the 1 on 1 negotiating especially with countries like Canada and Mexico who we pretty much talked it out with doing nafta. To me this is more like we are using what’s left of decreasing leverage to bring countries to the table to like secure votes or ease into the idea of restructuring the WTO or something like that cause honestly to beat china in the long run your gonna need a whole new game to play. The whole “Housing” bubble we use to speak of about china should have been our first wake up call that these guys are using our markets and not explicitly governed by them if any of that makes sense lol
Ok folks. Just one or two more days of pumping. Going to have great deals in the next few days. All eyes this coming friday to monday for the talks between US and China in Switzerland. No idea if we dump before the talks or after the talks. Regardless, there shouldn't be any "positive" outcome then. [https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/xwfb/xwfyrth/art/2025/art\_89f7cb660ffe49e6a70bfb778ede6e22.html](https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/xwfb/xwfyrth/art/2025/art_89f7cb660ffe49e6a70bfb778ede6e22.html) **MOFCOM Spokesperson Responds to Questions on Upcoming High-Level China-U.S. Economic and Trade Talks** *Source: Ministry of Commerce News Office | Original | May 7, 2025* **Question:** The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced this morning (May 7) that Vice Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland from May 9 to 12 and hold talks with the U.S. side. Can the Ministry of Commerce share more details about the background and context of this meeting? **Answer:** Since taking office, the new U.S. administration has adopted a series of **unlawful and unreasonable unilateral tariff measures**, which have severely impacted China-U.S. economic and trade relations, disrupted the international trade order, and posed serious challenges to the recovery and growth of the global economy. In response, China has **taken strong countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate interests**. Recently, the U.S. has repeatedly signaled intentions to adjust these tariff measures and has proactively reached out through multiple channels, expressing a desire to engage in dialogue with China on tariff-related issues. After careful assessment of these overtures—considering global expectations, China’s own interests, and appeals from U.S. industries and consumers—**China has agreed to engage**. Vice Premier **He Lifeng**, who leads China’s side on economic and trade talks with the U.S., will meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary **Bessent**, his counterpart, during the Switzerland visit. China’s position remains consistent: whether through confrontation or dialogue, **China will firmly safeguard its development interests** and uphold **international fairness, justice, and the global trade order**. If confrontation is chosen, **China will stand its ground**; if dialogue is sought, **China is open to it**—but any negotiation must be based on **mutual respect, equality, and mutual benefit**. As a Chinese saying goes, *“Listen to what they say, but watch what they do.”* If the U.S. genuinely wants to resolve issues through talks, it must **recognize the serious harm** caused by its unilateral tariff actions to both itself and the world, respect international rules and rational global voices, and **demonstrate sincerity** by correcting its wrongful practices. **China will not accept**, nor will it **sacrifice its principles or global justice**, for the sake of any agreement if the U.S. uses negotiations as a cover for coercion or blackmail. China has also noted that other economies are engaging in talks with the U.S. as well. But it must be stressed: **appeasement does not bring peace**, and **compromise does not earn respect**. The only right path is to **uphold principles** and **defend fairness and justice**. No matter how the global landscape evolves, **China will steadfastly continue opening up**, uphold the multilateral trading system centered on the WTO, and share development opportunities with the world. China is willing to work with all parties to deepen win-win cooperation, strengthen coordination, jointly resist unilateralism and economic bullying, and promote **inclusive and rules-based globalization**.
The onus is on China to, you know, actually follow the rules of the WTO. China needs to figure it out, they're economy isn't going to last. The CCP doesn't fear other nations, but they do fear a starving population.
Lol Bessent is most certainly not an idiot, he is one of the few *good* picks from this administration. Also he's right and his comment is bipartisan and has been said from both sides of the aisle with regards to China's WTO designation.
why? this is completely correct. it’s so unfair they still get developing status in WTO.
He’s talking about their WTO designation as “Developing Country” which offers certain advantages in trade. His point is that China is a much more advanced country now and shouldn’t be classified that way. It’s more of a compliment
Blanket tariffs on all countries, highest on China. Force bilateral deals with the smaller countries since the US is the 500lb gorilla. Pivot from Asia but just using the power you have rather than sucking up to other countries. WTO is crippled so there’s nothing anyone can do. Just have to wait it out.
Isn’t this just a WTO meeting that’s been scheduled for a long time and that both countries were attending regardless? The market feels really desperate.
China put their old WTO rep Li Chenggang in charge. He's known in Chinese circles for basically being a bean counter who hyper fixates on every single t being crossed correctly and i being dotted with the right type of ink. You're in for a bad, bad awakening if you think China is going into these talks with anything less than "give us Taiwan / massive concessions / go eat shit", because a few factories going bust is a small price to pay to cripple the US as their main geopolitical competitor in the East Asia-Pacific region. People last week were saying I was crazy for predicting that China is going to play hard ball if they play at all. I'll be vindicated in a couple of weeks.
I don't even know how we would facilitate a tariff on digital products; it's not supposed to be legal under the rules of the WTO, and we don't even have a mechanism in the Harmonized Tariff Schedule to track it. Like... I could see a tariff on DVDs burned with the movies but that's a small fraction of the distribution. I think the guy is just spit balling to the point I don't think there's a meaningful way to enact the policy. The stock reaction seems purely speculative.
What you’re insinuating is not a tariff in any definition of the term. Based on child comments of this you don’t know what you’re talking about. Tariffs are taxes on imported goods, not wire transfers or payments for services. Wiring $1M to a foreign company for film production doesn’t automatically trigger a tariff - those apply to physical or digital imports like a finished movie, not the act of paying foreign crew or companies. Hiring locals in New Zealand? That’s typically subject to income or withholding taxes, not tariffs. The IRS tracks transactions, sure, but “boom tariff” isn’t a thing here. Check WTO rules on digital goods for the real mechanics.
Here’s something I don’t understand on tariffing electronic transmissions (movies) and how it relates to a fight with the WTO from March of 2024. Apparently a lot of nations want to tax Netflix for streaming material and so that opens up some retaliation if this is what mango ment by tariffing movies. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/understanding-scope-definition-and-impact-wto-e-commerce-moratorium
If it’s digital, then WTO digital moratorium USA signed in March of 2024 would be canceled. A bunch of nations want to tax Netflix and it’s a trial balloon for other digital services, maybe fiscal instruments and services and that’s chilling. Or it’s just dvds in a shipping container and it’s yawn
only because the WTO CVA was written before the internet and fully digital goods/services existed. applying taxes to digital goods/services is pretty much something the EU has been wanting to do for years by arguing the added value is taxable. by that extension, if it is taxable, then it also can be dutiable.
those tax incentives give an opening though under WTO rules to impose tariffs/sanctions because they can be considered anti-competitive subsidies
https://kpmg.com/kpmg-us/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2022/2020-07-20-tax-notes-trade.pdf WTO has guidance on transfer payments, there can be cases that intellectual property can be dutiable
https://kpmg.com/kpmg-us/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2022/2020-07-20-tax-notes-trade.pdf transfer payments can be interpreted to be dutiable, its not restricted to physical goods per WTO rules
The WTO agrees, the Biden administration (and other presidents of both parties) didn't agree. Not defending the chaotic approach of Trump, or even that if done in an ordered way it would be good, but it is disingenuous to pretend that "using trade as a weapon" is a Trump thing rather than a longstanding piece of American foreign policy. At least Trump is doing it with economic goals.
Yes, it can be easier for US stores to purchase goods from Taiwan, Japan, and Indonesia compared to China, due to factors like trade agreements, political stability, and perceived quality and reliability. While China might offer lower initial costs, the long-term benefits of sourcing from Taiwan, Japan, or Indonesia can outweigh the higher upfront expenses. Here's a more detailed breakdown: Taiwan: Trade Agreements: Taiwan is part of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and has numerous trade agreements, making it relatively easy to do business there. Ease of Doing Business: Taiwan's relatively low trade barriers and streamlined import documentation contribute to a smoother business process, according to Zonos. High-Quality Products: Taiwanese manufacturers are known for producing high-quality, reliable products, often with a focus on innovation and sustainability, says Cosmo Sourcing. Manufacturing Alternative: Taiwan is often seen as a viable alternative to China for manufacturing, offering potential cost savings in the long run due to the reliable quality of its products. Japan: Quality and Innovation: Japanese products are renowned for their high quality, reliability, and innovative technology. Sourcing Option: Japan can be a good sourcing option, particularly for products requiring specialized manufacturing techniques or advanced technology. Higher Costs: However, products from Japan can be more expensive than those from China, due to factors like higher labor costs and stricter quality control standards. Indonesia: Business-Friendly Policies: The Indonesian government has implemented business-friendly policies, such as tax reductions on imported capital goods, which can make it easier and cheaper for businesses to acquire machinery and equipment. Potential for Growth: Indonesia is a large and growing market with a burgeoning middle class, making it an attractive destination for foreign investment. Logistical Challenges: While Indonesia offers a good sourcing option, US stores may encounter logistical challenges due to distance and infrastructure limitations. China: Lower Initial Costs: China often presents the lowest initial costs for goods, making it an attractive option for businesses looking to minimize expenses. Potential Risks: However, China's political and economic landscape, as well as concerns about quality control and ethical sourcing practices, can pose risks for US businesses. Global Supply Chains: China's dominance in global manufacturing has created complex supply chains, which can be vulnerable to disruptions.
Saying one thing and doing another. China recognizes that behavior readily as a nation that does the same thing. What the USA has been asking China to do since they joined the WTO in 2001... "The WTO requested that China make significant commitments to open its economy and reduce government intervention as a condition for joining the organization. These commitments included lowering tariffs on goods, opening trade in services, allowing markets to set prices, and removing export subsidies and taxes. Additionally, China agreed to eliminate dual pricing practices and differences in treatment between goods produced for domestic and export markets."
The principal mistake it was allowed China to the WTO.
The act should have been negotiated several times again since it was originally signed by Bill Clinton. And certainly Obama, who said Russia was not a problem to mitt Romney, could have done something to prevent the war in Crimea. The USA needs to decouple itself from China, or become a state of China "The U.S.–China Relations Act of 2000 is an act of the United States Congress that granted China permanent normal trade relations (NTR) status (previously called most favoured nation (MFN)) when China becomes a full member of the World Trade Organization (WTO), ending annual review and approval of NTR. It was signed into law on October 10, 2000, by United States President Bill Clinton. " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States%E2%80%93China_Relations_Act_of_2000#:~:text=The%20U.S,Bill%20Clinton.
So, Biden signed China back into the WTO back in 2001? Hmm, big if true.
Nice try Xi Jinping. China entered the trade war 25 years ago when China was admitted to the WTO and began blatantly cheating its trading partners. The U.S. is finally pushing back against China's bullying. P.S. Free Tibet! Free Xinjiang!
America should have initiated Tariffs when the Japanese were dumping consumer electronics below cost and charging above cost to the Japanese to make up for the losses dumping product to the US this started in the late 1960s. They should have never allowed China to the WTO knowing they did not allow the Yuan to trade on the open markets like the rest of the countries. We should have never initiated trade with china without any Tariffs. NAFTA etc.. was a mistake. The damage is done we demolished our factories etc and it is too late to fix it now with Tariffs. Currently we are offshoring white collar jobs overseas, we should look at Tariffs on such jobs before it is too late.
The CCP is not a saint either. As a result of abusing the benefits of WTO developing nation status, China’s competitive edge stems largely from aggressive industrial policies, extensive state subsidies, and the practice of dumping excess inventory into global markets. This is reinforced by lax labour protections and minimal environmental regulations. In its earlier development phase, China also manipulated its currency to gain a strategic foothold in global supply chains - and, capital controls and central bank actions still give the government indirect influence over the exchange rate. Moreover, China doesn't allow free access for foreign investment i.e. investment without CCP involvement in the company - this often results in extortion, IP theft, or in some cases, predatory corporate takeovers, buyouts, and seizures . I'm actually really impressed by Chinese neo-mercantilist capitalism, in the sense that, China co-opted neoliberalism, and abused the naivete of westerners, so that it could rapidly modernise its economy and military industrial base. China has the largest navy now, they can build ships like Toyota corollas. Meanwhile, the Americans are addicted to cheap consumerism and distracted from the fact that it's going to take decades to build a single nuclear sub. Neoliberalism has utterly failed in this regard in terms of an increasingly antagonistic world order as seen, in COVID supply chain vulnerabilities, and in Ukraine with RU-CN-DPRK-IR involvement.
I can buy a laptop and get a phone cover instead delivered within a week! Amazing stuff! On the matter of Trump negotiating: 145% Tariffs! Media and everyone goes mad Trump says: That got your attention Now what can we get you to do to cooperate? The EU has been screwing the rest of the world with its 15000 (!) lines of tariffs, China too has a similar arrangement with the outside world. The WTO doesn’t work, so free trade is subject to complaints which don’t get resolved for years. So, unilateral action, telegraphed in Trump 1.0 and everyone sits about in an echo chamber saying he won’t do it. So he did, and boy has he got their attention
China is not India. China violates dozens of trade laws and international laws. Duty evasion, transshipment, market flooding, forced labor, and fraud. Violating WTO rules, including those related to subsidies and forced technology transfer.
I say this without any political bias- Let me ask you this, how can the USA “become prosperous again” (trumps words) if our government does not try SOMETHING against the Chinese? No other leader has been as…. Bold? To do anything about it for better or for worse. The fact is that the major effect of China’s admission into the WTO (and their subsequent disregard for fair trade practice) Shifted wealth to the top 10% AND the created the Chinese middle class, at the expense of the American middle class? For this reason, I fail to see how this tariff policy would stick over the course of his presidency. It seems more likely he’s trying to shock the world into realignment, and unfortunately us common folk (worldwide) are paying the price. Unfortunately I can only hope he’s got some sort of plan, because if things go far enough south we’ll have to wait until the dems regain control of the house during midterms. It seems more likely they will, rather than not. Side tangent- I can’t quite tell if he’s serious about reshoring most manufacturing back to the USA, or just industries considered critical for national security. To attempt to reshore all manufacturing is a fools errand. It is almost as if we’d need more lax labor laws and immigrants to do it for us… but I sure as hell don’t want to see a modern day homestead strike.
If we didn’t have social media so everyone with TDS could whine all day about everything under the sun, I’d say both will be fine in the end. We’re people, we’ll live. For us a loud by small percent of people we’ll cry more on line about not being able to potentially buy our juice maker from China. It amazes me I can state something simple that is in support of America and the internet wants to melt down and support China. I don’t recall anyone complaining about tariffs or China not playing by the WTO rules when Pelosi wanted it in the late 90’s.
That is the amusing part about this… China has time on its side. Xi doesn’t have to worry about midterms coming up, or any other elections really. China only started seeing ~10%pa GDP increases from the late 1970s, and only joined the WTO in the early 2000s. Almost all of their workforce has known hard/tough times, and I’d be willing to bet they could handle it again. By contrast, almost all of the US population has only ever known being at the top of the ladder. They could barely tolerate COVID-19 without frequent mental breakdowns. I doubt their pain tolerance is as high as the US Gov thinks it is.
China is basically the only major international power that is, by their own admission, of a different economic philosophy than the Western world. The WTO and Western powers wrote the rules of the international trade game, and functionally exported manufacturing, low-paying jobs, and pollution to third world shitholes like China in the late 20th century. China, with a command economy and intelligent investment, played by those rules and somehow came out on top when it was the US and Europe who basically wrote them in the first place! I think it's a bit unfair to say we have grievances. The only grievance I can see from the US's POV is that China became successful when it was supposed to stay poor and weak, and is challenging us as top dog in the world, and I'm all for it. Fuck unilateralism.
The CCP has been stealing IP, using child and slave labor to keep costs low, manipulating its currency, and falsely claiming developing nation status with the WTO and the U.S. is the bully for wanting reciprocal trade deals? Hahaha What a crock of shit 😂
I am referring to WTO rules lol.
The US has blocked the appointment of judges to the WTO since Trump #1 so they have a large backlog of cases to deal with. The US doesn't obey international law now anyway.
Boeing has an immense backlog and based off the latest durable goods report and just received 192 aircraft orders for the month. Airplanes are also heavily protected by WTO agreements which negate most tariff implications. In terms of big tech, recent earnings are currently carrying this sector.
china ignoring WTO accession agreement, stealing global IP, preventing most influential US firms from operating there, and backstopping Russia's war in Ukraine amounts to them starting this shit, imho.
20% market correction is a best case. 50% is if Trump were to continue like he was 10 days ago. The guy did a u-turn on his kamikaze run at the fed only a few days ago. He’s had that grudge for a decade. It’s going to come round again. The best case scenario is we only have a recession, nato, WTO, & USMCA stay on life support till 2028 and we will see a 20% dip. If he resumes his efforts to unravel everything else, we’ll start to decouple as the reserve currency, you’ll see mass capital flight and the markets will easily dump 50%. The fact they’ve already talked about delisting US traded Chinese stocks means they now have no problem delisting any U.S. traded foreign equities. Moves like that don’t inspire safe haven confidence. Do not put anything more in the use market than you’d put down in a casino at the moment…
The American economy has been growing on an unsustainable trajectory for years, if not decades, because of the drug that is cheap Chinese imports. After opening the floodgates by politically recognizing Beijing over Taipei, and allowing the PRC’s ascent to the WTO despite it flagrantly flouting the rules governing international trade, we’ve in fact created a Frankenstein that we are at very real risk of losing control of. And all for what? Short term drug-induced highs that are not durable over the long term, that’s what. Today, the PRC is a malign nation that threatens the global order, cheats the system, and conducts industrial espionage on a global scale. Trump, during his first term, awakened the world to this fact, and the subsequent Democratic administration’s continuation of many of his tariffs and export controls proves that this is not merely a political stunt but a clear and present threat to national security. I will concede that while the intentions of the current tariff regime are good, the haphazard execution and the roll out has been poorly done. If 2020 has taught us anything, it’s this - eventually we need to have a robust and resilient domestic and nearshored supply chain of critical materials, even if it comes at the costs of some level of economic redundancy and maximal economic growth. Depending on a malign nation whose stated goal is to suppress our nation for critical needs like chips, industrial hardware, medications, masks, respirators, ventilators, etc, is not exactly sound national security policy.