WW

ercanbas

WW3 at 4pm.

RustledForeskin

The US has invaded 8 sovereign nations since 1950 along with innumerable clandestine hostile acts of various forms of terrorism, primarily economic. The first 2 wars after WW2, the dems were in power, the last 6 the reps were in power. Every time there is a massive propaganda campaign to guilt other countries into joining some coalition of the damned with americans threatening to leave NATO. You're viewed now as the bad guys and leaving NATO will make you North Korea adjacent.

Tallwhitedude123

I’m not assuming anything. I’m applying RISK. A 30yr bond carries DURATION RISK. You have to factor in the fact that inflation has been way above target for 6yrs now, the government continuing to massively increase debt and deficits vs GDP, geopolitical risks, oil shock risks, and most importantly now that not only is the government not actively fighting inflation but are actually MANIPULATING government debt which will likely full inflation higher, not lower. So when you factor all of this in buying a 30yr treasury at 5.3% is not a good proposition. No more talking. Just watch. You already provided the example, Japan. When they implemented financial repression to spur growth after WW2 bonds severely underperformed while asset bubbles were created everywhere else. This led to the opposite of financial repression which is when bonds actually massively outperformed.

quipcow

Boomers parents? The gen referred to as the "Silent Generation"? Boomers got their start in 46, and they grew up in a prosperous era, so unknown in any world history prior to them that it could be described as fiction. They were pumped out in a post war moment that would be hard to describe to anyone prior.  The amount of resources, land, houses, jobs, roads, infrastructure, not to mention money or access to capital and technology like cars, phones, tvs, airlines, etc that was available to them is insane. And will probably never happen again. Their parents gen started in 1927 and they had to grow up in the aftermath of WW1 and great depression. And as they got their footing, they had to prepare for and build the US economy in WW2. I doubt the silent gen were as entitled as the boomers, but they built the world took over.

Tallwhitedude123

You’re simply wrong. First off the US government has already done this in the past. They did it post WW2 in order to decrease the massive debt from the war. Simple question. Who regulates the banks? The US government! The US government tells the banks what to do. The banks have no say in the matter.

Garbage-Disposal-938

we can't beat China. it's just too big, wealthy and industrial. but, to answer your question: yes, he will definitely double down into WW3 because he's an idiot

Me-Regarded

So if China keeps supporting Iran does 🥭 TACO or does he double down into WW3? Asking for a friend?

Choice_Potato_6279

WHY EVERYTHING IS GOING UP!? we should be going down! don't you understand? OIL SHORTAGES!!! OIL SHORTAGES!!! IT'S LITERALLY WW III WHY WE AREN'T CRASHING BY 90%?

XysterU

At this point another option is the US starts WW3 and nukes competing economies to save the value of the dollar so that's why they won't cut the military budget (even though the US military is useless, incompetent, and incapable)

Electrical_Panda_326

Since WW2 America always inflated it's debt away, so option nr 2.

Web3Ohio

Time for WW3 War Bonds?

Competitive_Race_388

I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t think people realize we are absolutely 3 years balls deep into WW3 and there’s only one more wrung up the ladder of escalation. The AI race, data centers, flock cameras/surveillance state, elites building bunkers and the White House “ballroom” 100 meters under ground with a state of the art hospital and everything you would need to survive and apocalypse is not a coincidence. They might as well have a book open that says “look what’s coming”

wormee

Kamala Harris’ laugh was going to start WW 3

NoOneMan79

If you have the moral high-ground to decimate a population with an economic D-Day, why are atomic weapons so scary? Did you know an economic D-Day wiped out 2-million people in Iran after WW1? [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian\_famine\_of\_1917%E2%80%931919](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_famine_of_1917%E2%80%931919) But bombs are scary?

WSBpeon69420

Taxes are only going to go up just to offset some of this debt as well. No matter who is in office we don’t cut spending so the only real other lever to pull is increase taxes. We are already at low tax rates historically right now it could realistically go up to post WW2 rates in extreme scenarios

GeX_64_

No war with China, china wants regional control. Mexico can be bribed and knows war with US is bad for business. Iran is led by batshit crazy people with nothing to lose. Like fighting a Japanese soldier in WW2, still in the jungle 20 years later waiting for the enemy.

airbud9

I am very aware of the 'Beyond the status quo" paper, I have made many comments where I bring it up and link to it. Its a good paper but I do have some trouble with certain aspects of it. I do worry about the data in the paper used for government bonds, I believe they used a dataset for government bonds that included bonds that went basically worthless, like post WW1 Germany bonds. I would be interest to see if they used a bond set that followed a largely US total bond market index. Also when the simulation was allow to choose the optimal allocation for each year, in the simulation using a constant dollar 4% withdraw rate, the simulation decided the optimal portfolio included a "bills" allocation in the first \~5 years of retirement as high as \~25%. Also in the context of a 529 plan that OP is talking about, it is likely that the withdrawal rate will be significantly higher than what the paper covered and would require some level of bonds to have the highest possible chance of having the best withdraw outcome.

Electrical_Panda_326

That's exactly the plan. Since the end of WW2, America always chose to inflate the debt away rather than reduce spending.

Daymjoo

>If the well-being of our country relies on constant warfare, there is something fundamentally wrong with it.  No arguments there. Basically, the US needs a huge army for a number of reasons, such as backing the petrodollar, preventing other powers from rising etc. And the problem is that amassing a powerful army leads you into armed conflicts by the very virtue of having it. It's how WW1 started. Militarization, militarization, militarization... at some point it leads to war, right? Otherwise, your economy will collapse from the unsustainability of maintaining a huge army.

palindromic

“One’s own employees ought to be one’s own best customers.” — Henry Ford, Today and Tomorrow (1926) Even though Ford was a bit of a crank, this philosophy in part it could be argued, led to the economic boom that was the post WW2 US (and also the baby boom, because families with some economic security- you guessed it, have babies) It’s the huge “person shaped hole” we are looking at in all this automation talk and ai crap.. who is going to be buying anything if we have outsourced or automated all the jobs?

istalri96

My Dad collects colonial currency. I enjoy collecting WW1 propaganda pieces. My favorite is a french piece I have. It's just about 6 feet tall and around 4 feet wide in its frame. The frame cost about as much as the piece itself since it was too big and needed a custom framing job.

Free-Initiative7508

WW3 would be insane

xghtai737

What makes you think the US has shifted to the right on economic policies in recent decades? In 1988 the marginal tax rate was 33%. In 2026 it is 37%. Federal, state, and local taxes combined as a percentage of GDP was around 28.8% in 1988 and around 28.2% recently, so pretty close to flat in terms of GDP. In 1988 the number of pages in the Federal Register (a common proxy for the number of regulations) was 50,000. In 2026 it is estimated to be 85,000. Government transfer payments to households (what the Bureau of Economic Analysis labels as Government Social Benefits To Persons - things like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security) amounted to approximately 10.5% of GDP in the late 1980s and is currently around 16.0% of GDP. So, taxes are flat with maybe slightly more on the highest bracket, regulations have expanded, and social benefits payments have expanded. But, more directly as it relates to socialism rather than progressivism, Trump has taken or has plans to take a government stake in approximately 30 companies and counting. That is unheard of outside of temporary measures during a major war or major economic crisis. Woodrow Wilson did it during WW1, FDR did it during the Great Depression and WW2. Carter did it for Chrysler. Bush 2 and Obama did it during the GFC. All of those were temporary measures and were almost always non-voting shares. What Trump has done by taking voting shares and with the intent of permanent positions outside of any crisis, is an alarming degree of government command economy for the US. People sometimes forget what capitalism is: the *private* ownership of the means of production. What Trump is doing by taking a government stake in companies is destroying capitalism in favor of a socialist, command economy. That is true regardless of what he does with the tax rates or with regulations.

Free-Initiative7508

WW3 would be insane

Me-Regarded

WW3 rumors

MainAd9627

man, this is not how priced in works, i just tried to explain... There is a risk of a worst case scenario, of course that is thought about when pricing a asset. You simply say wait If that worst case szenario has happend, than the price was wrong. You are exactly thinking what I tried to show with my example. You say, look, the 1 was rolled, the asset wasnt worth 95$ all along. Which is just plain wrong. If WW3 doesnt happen, and the stocks keep rising, was the price also wrong?

Proudrugby

If one can't determine the correct value it's not priced in. It's partially priced in. As in my example above....if WW3 happens because of current events....You'll see what's priced in

Proudrugby

To a degree yes, hence why I said predicting the probability of an outcome based on what is known. That's priced in or partially priced in. Say for example WW3 breaks out in 2 months time because of current events. Would you say that it's priced in. We both know the answer. Not everything is priced in

Ok_Sugar_8942

What do the insiders know that we don't? is WW3 tomorrow?

DemandOk5785

Nope. Just how WW3 goes.

skarfbeaulonee

can you imagine how bad WW3 and theGreat Depression 2.0 would be right now if Kamala had won?

Own-Recipe5908

We're relying on Xi not taking the biggest opportunity he's ever had to avoid economic collapse + WW3 proper.

mafugga77

Better than being conscripted into WW3

MionMikanCider

Your average gen Z has north of 30 years before they can touch their 401ks. In that time, we may get WW3 with Iran or a terminator style AI apocalypse. So yeah, I would be bearish on the future too.

_BreakingGood_

Will Home Depot earnings moon this week because of all the soldiers coming home to spend their money on houses and home improvement like in WW2??

hyldemarv

The Paris exchange went up almost all the way through WW II.

liuqiu_rangers

A war in Korea is not bullish for MU you fucking retards. If South Korea goes to war then the global tech industry straight up collapses with half of all data center projects getting cancelled. Jensen and all his AI circlejerk buddies are going to be in a bunker waiting for WW3, not buying chips.

Onnimation

Bruh... no fucking way! WW3?! Even the thought of using nuclear weapons by the US is crazy... US Considering Potential Nuclear Weapon Use **Former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene posted on social media platform X alleging high-level strategy meetings are considering the use of nuclear weapons against Iran and lowering the threshold for their use. The former lawmaker warned that such an escalation could trigger a global "nuclear holocaust," leading to an economic depression and unprecedented casualties. "America is not untouchable," Greene said, urging the public to stop what she called the "insanity." She added that current leaders would be held responsible by history if a nuclear conflict occurred.**

PaperHandsTheDip

Money printing causes inflation & currency to faceplant in value. IE: If you doubled the amount of currency in existence without changing the output of any country, we would roughly expect everything to double in price... including the price of equities. It's not "past performance does not guarantee future results" it's literally - they can and will print money. They introduced laws that allow them to, and called it Quantative Easing. Look at what QE does. It first introduced in 2008 and we've only had two crisis's since - 2008 & covid... it wasn't a thing before. We have a plethora of evidence of what happens when governments print money tho (see germany post WW2 as an example). It reduces down to the above - everything goes up in value relative to that currency. Interesting thing about our markets are they are priced in... that exact currency. US markets are priced in USD. If USD faceplants in value due to inflation / being printed, you'd expect markets to go up relative to how much USD goes down - assuming economic output remains constant. Since QE was introduced the fed has made it very clear it will be utilized during any crisis. In that sense - yah - our economic output may actually go down. But the value (quoted in USD) is going to go up, since markets go up to compensate for the faceplanting value of USD. \> When money printing fail to solve the problem, it would fail spectacular. Yah, it doesn't work very well. But when markets are quoted in USD, your retirement is quoted in USD - why in the world would you EVER want to hold USD when they print it like no other? They've already shown they don't care about the dollar, making sure number go up is more important. You're betting against that saying market is going to crash...

Landman518

We’ll kick their asses just like our parents kicked the nazis asses in WW2 Screw these morons

supposedlyeasy

Oh great, now WW3 is coming. Thanks a lot, OP, you dick!

totalthrowawayyy6365

For sure haha If no WW3 should be ok

Specific_Mountain716

Do you see how your explanation sucks? Oil prices fluctuate, never a long term issue, debt will keep rising, yet we have bull years, dot com 2.0?? Might as well say WW3 is coming and buy puts. Your logic is flawed this results show. But we need suckers like you when we sell puts so thanks.and data center hatred? Ar eyou insane? Theres more cap ex for data centers and ai than ever before and continues.

KIngoftheimmortals

This is a diagram from (I think) WW2. It basically shows the places a plane could be shot and still return home. The ones that were shot in the blank spaces didn't return at all. Tl;dr For every winner you see, there's a lot of losers you don't

Ragnoid

WW fucking 3 calls on drones

ComfortablePiglet842

He bought? Activate WW3

No_Drama8032

Are we long or short on Meta when WW3 breaks out?

HotBrownRainDangus

Actually it’s usually government spending/stimulus that gets countries out of trouble. See: WW2, the American jobs act and TARP act, Cares act, chips act, and infrastructure bill. All these interventions are what calmed the waters and encouraged investment again.

Fit_Feedback5981

Bears are so mad that WW3 hasn’t started and stocks are going up 🤣🤣🤣

jsands7

I thought you muted me, I felt so alone! I legitimately have almost zero concern about Biden and Trump illegally enriching their own bank accounts from the Presidency and then pardoning themselves at the end of their terms. I just has so minuscule of an effect on the average person and I have much bigger fish to fry. In general, I hear what you’re saying. It's just that I've seen so many doomsayers in the past that it's just hard to take you guys seriously now: Russian/Ukraine War - “With sanctions/without Russian oil the market will crash!" Nope. “Ukraine is the world's bread basket, without them global food shortages will be rampant!" Nope. Israel/Hamas War - “This will draw the entire region into conflict!!!" "The start of WW3!!!" Nope. Another 50 things: "The world is at a tipping point and this will push us over the edge!!!" Nope, still here. I've set hundreds of RemindMe's on Reddit to people making hyperbolic comments over the last 3, 5, and 10 years... and gone back and said "Well...? It's been a year, everything is fine. What happened to your thesis?" and heard crickets. The world is very resilient. People are resilient. Localized conflicts like we're currently seeing in Ukraine, Sudan, Myanmar, Israel, Iran - they all stink for the people in those areas but the rest of the world will continue on and prosper as it always has. A new romantic comedy movie will still come out each week. People will fill up their cars and go to McDonalds. Another Olympics will happen, and then another World Cup. "Life... uhh... finds a way."

jsands7

I thought you muted me, I felt so alone! I legitimately have almost zero concern about Biden and Trump illegally enriching their own bank accounts from the Presidency and then pardoning themselves at the end of their terms. I just has so minuscule of an effect on the average person and I have much bigger fish to fry. In general, I hear what you’re saying. It's just that I've seen so many doomsayers in the past that it's just hard to take you guys seriously now: Russian/Ukraine War - “With sanctions/without Russian oil the market will crash!" Nope. “Ukraine is the world's bread basket, without them global food shortages will be rampant!" Nope. Israel/Hamas War - “This will draw the entire region into conflict!!!" "The start of WW3!!!" Nope. Another 50 things: "The world is at a tipping point and this will push us over the edge!!!" Nope, still here. I've set hundreds of RemindMe's on Reddit to people making hyperbolic comments over the last 3, 5, and 10 years... and gone back and said "Well...? It's been a year, everything is fine. What happened to your thesis?" and heard crickets. The world is very resilient. People are resilient. Localized conflicts like we're currently seeing in Ukraine, Sudan, Myanmar, Israel, Iran - they all stink for the people in those areas but the rest of the world will continue on and prosper as it always has. A new romantic comedy movie will still come out each week. People will fill up their cars and go to McDonalds. Another Olympics will happen, and then another World Cup. "Life... uhh... finds a way."

Sufficient_Habit5091

WW3 threats ---> fake peace deal to new ATHs. Hike threats ---> fake CPI to new ATHs. Rinse and repeat.

Sufficient_Habit5091

WW3 threats ---> fake peace deal to new ATHs. Hike threats ---> fake CPI to new ATHs. Rinse and repeat.

Fit_Feedback5981

lol downvotes from bears who are praying for WW3 rn

Fanytastiq

Freedom of Navigation has always been US Navy's objective for the post WW2 global order. Look at where we are

Scriptum_

You need to learn the mechanics of an IPO. Typically, they squeeze upwards. That's engineered by the sponsors with public float and the hype train. There's also no shares to borrow yet, which means no shorts - another mechanic to provide a pop on ipo day. Given the vested interests in AI it's virtually guaranteed to pop. The shorts will show up over the coming months - that's where overhyped ipos get wrecked. Long term investors are hesitant to accumulate because of the 6 months (typically) share unlock schedule. Do you see how insanely inexperienced you are yet? Remember the "vested interests"? They would eat you for breakfast with volatility. That IPO will be WW3.

jsands7

Eh I hear you… it’s just, I guess I’ve seen so many doomsayers in the past that it’s just hard to take seriously now: Russian/Ukraine War — “With sanctions/without Russian oil the market will crash!” Nope. “Ukraine is the world’s bread basket, without them global food shortages will be rampant!” Nope. Israel/Hamas War — “This will draw the entire region into conflict!!!” “The start of WW3!!!” Nope. Another 50 things: “The world is at a tipping point and this will push us over the edge!!!” Nope, still here. I’ve set hundreds of RemindMe’s on Reddit to people making hyperbolic comments over the last 3, 5, and 10 years… and gone back and said “Well…? It’s been a year, everything is fine. What happened to your thesis?” and heard crickets. The world is very resilient. People are resilient. Localized conflicts like we’re currently seeing in Ukraine, Sudan, Myanmar, Israel, Iran — they all stink for the people in those areas but the rest of the world will continue on and prosper as it always has. A new romantic comedy movie will still come out each week. People will fill up their cars and go to McDonalds. Another Olympics will happen, and then another World Cup. “Life… uhh… finds a way.”

jsands7

Eh I hear you… it’s just, I guess I’ve seen so many doomsayers in the past that it’s just hard to take seriously now: Russian/Ukraine War — “With sanctions/without Russian oil the market will crash!” Nope. “Ukraine is the world’s bread basket, without them global food shortages will be rampant!” Nope. Israel/Hamas War — “This will draw the entire region into conflict!!!” “The start of WW3!!!” Nope. Another 50 things: “The world is at a tipping point and this will push us over the edge!!!” Nope, still here. I’ve set hundreds of RemindMe’s on Reddit to people making hyperbolic comments over the last 3, 5, and 10 years… and gone back and said “Well…? It’s been a year, everything is fine. What happened to your thesis?” and heard crickets. The world is very resilient. People are resilient. Localized conflicts like we’re currently seeing in Ukraine, Sudan, Myanmar, Israel, Iran — they all stink for the people in those areas but the rest of the world will continue on and prosper as it always has. A new romantic comedy movie will still come out each week. People will fill up their cars and go to McDonalds. Another Olympics will happen, and then another World Cup. “Life… uhh… finds a way.”

Onnimation

That would be WW3 and most likely 🍑 would resort boots on the ground and last resort would be nukes

Timmerz120

Cheap solution is a low-end AA system to deal with Shahed style targets, Shaheds aren't hard to shoot down with them ultimately being very similar to Japense Kamikazes back at the end of WW2 in regards to both speed and payload and frankly towards the end of the Cold War there was a bunch of systems that were in development that was meant to deal with massed soviet Helicopter Aviation such as the Italian Otomatic that were cancelled when the USSR collapsed that would work perfectly against Shaheds(heck with the US currently C-RAM/Phalanx and any ship's main gun works great against Shaheds, the issue is that no-one ever wants to Convoy Up and there's just a lot of targets, and such systems are relatively short ranged compared to heavier SAMs like Patriot) For Patriot's role assuming we have some in storage the older Hawk missiles would fill the same general role and would still be overkill for Shaheds but wouldn't be as effective against ballistic missiles

zonk84

Besides the financial obvious? I love the complexity, the min-maxing, the multi-path way to "win", and the 'snowball effect' (i.e., compounding). You did say *besides the obvious* \- so I don't want to sound too blase, but I always loved playing what lots of people jokingly call "spreadsheet games". I.e., I've bought/played every edition of Out of the Park Baseball (an MLB team management sim) that gets deep into the weeds of org management (payrolls, scouting, ticket prices, roster management, et al) and getting to the point where I could literally build a juggernaut that would win 120 games a year. Ditto a lot of the complicated world builder titles from the Paradox game studio (Europa Universalis, Hearts of Iron/WW2, Victoria, Stellaris, etc). I *loved* finding all the nooks and crannies to "min-max" -- getting to the point of winning at the highest difficulty levels by finding *just the right* seams to exploit and hit the 'snowball' effect. Of course - real money, not a game! Now 7-8 years in (not counting the prior \~15-20 years of standard 401k/IRA saving/investment)? I make sure to continually measure and reassess -- basically, "If I can't beat the S&P? I've just got an expensive hobby and I should buy a Railroad Tycoon type trading game". So far, so good! But my love of "spreadsheet games" has served me well: Swim the complexity. Continually learn what works for me and what doesn't. Always measure and reassess based on results.

outworlder

This could be a temporary pause. Most of the peace has to do with how intertwined economies have become, and also nukes. If attacking another country means your own economy will utterly collapse and you lose access to important goods, you'll stay put. See also: US and China. If your thesis had merit, WW1 would have guaranteed no WW2. Historically, violence generates more violence.

F4113n54v102

We’ve low key lost every war since WW2.

23-1-20-3-8-5-18

That makes it WW7 because 4 is so bad it skips over the next 3.

farfaraway

I have to admit that I also hold this view. Iran, Russia, N. Korea, etc. All linked. Just still expanding. WW2 also started with smaller scale conflicts and expanded. 

Recent-Animator6941

I think we are skipping WW3 & jump right into WW4

farfaraway

I'm pretty sure that a recession is the best-case scenario at this point. I'm planning around a Greatest Depression followed by WW3.

vermilli21

So when does everyone think WW3 draft will start?

CrossOfRoachAndSlime

None of whom have any intentions on attacking China. Japan has been de-fanged ever since WW2. Taiwan and PH are tiny islands that pose zero threat to China... So why the sudden arms buildup between a new carrier, 5th gen fighter jets, etc. when none of China's neighbors ever had any intentions on going kinetic?

GenderJuicy

Obviously it's not on the same scale as Amazon or Uber, and I wouldn't even compare the importance. "Nothing comparable in human history" isn't right, there's the railroad, WW2, etc. It's big, yes, it's just not unprecedented. Microsoft and Google are funding most of this out of operating cash flow from businesses that are already very profitable. If demand disappointed they could just cut, and their earnings would look better immediately. They can keep it rolling as long as they choose to, the question is whether they'll want to. If you're talking about Anthropic and OpenAI, then yes, they're burning a shitload and don't have other ways of making money. I don't think Microsoft or Google actually want those companies to disappear necessarily, because they're providing them very valuable data, even if indirectly. Probably a good part of why Microsoft has so much money in OpenAI for instance. What do you think these companies will end up doing? I think they'll keep pricing each other out and forcing each other to spend enormous amounts training the next best model to keep demand up, until one of them can't keep pace. Companies are building infrastructure and workflows around these services, and they'll pay enterprise rates for them, the same way firms happily pay Autodesk thousands per seat per year when Blender is free. I'm not saying anyone's locked into a single vendor, but they'll keep paying for one, I don't think there's a future where everyone's stopped developing AI models and offering a service like they are especially to enterprise. It probably isn't going to be Anthropic or OpenAI hitting zero. Could be next quarter, could be five years, I really don't think there's some imminent thing happening in the next year. Google can subsidize off search cash flow essentially forever and they're probably okay being behind the people who are spending WAY more climbing to the top as they, slowly, probably train off everything they're providing the same way something like Alibaba is.

IncidentSouthern2119

Kevin Warsh will most likely follow the same path the US used post WW2 to manage the debt 1945-1975 or so. Inflate out of it. Savers in cash like assets get stuck with the bill. Own Assets. Diversify.

Coffee_Ops

Yeah. And there is talk of getting rid of the debt ceiling, so unlike post WW2 where that number went down, we are going up and Congress wants it to go up with fewer roadblocks.

Coffee_Ops

We topped out at 118% debt-to-gdp during WW2. As recently as 10 years ago discussions on this were treating that number as a Bad Place, but "at least we're not there yet". Where are we now, have you looked?

Me-Regarded

Right!? I can't handle slow and boring anymore. I need cusp of WW3 and global financial collapse to feel anything

Budget-Ocelots

Except for WW2. Russians committing war crimes across Europe. And then the US with the atom bombs. We haven’t gotten another WW because the potential war crimes will be too immense on humanity with modern weapons.

Sensitive_Pudding599

Put leaps? What was your logic, WW3?

african_cheetah

Air power is powerful. Being able to click anywhere in a map and have it blown to pieces is a powerful capability.  The problem is US air power is pretty diminished compared to the cheap drones.  Russia and Iran can produce a million drones per year under sanctions.  They can drive their economies to the ground to win a war of attrition.  US is stuck in the past with boomers making boomer decisions thinking WW2 strategy will help them win. 

Academic_Power_7473

If it were WW III then Iran would be a radioactive dust cloud by now

Sweaty-Dust6405

In the old days, the children of presidents would actually participate (ex.: Teddy Roosevelt's son died in WW1)...nowadays, forget about it, especially Trump's family.

FortyYearOldVirgin

I’m old enough to remember that dent clock being installed in NY and we had these same conversations. It’s been literally decades (1989). And we’ve been having the same damn argument to this day. Just like the doomsday clock when one country launches a nuke into the air. Or talks of Xomg it’s WW3! when there’s conflict. If I’ve learned nothing else in my old age is that fear sells. And I’m not falling for it.

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

Glad we agree on that.  It speaks to the complexity of "imminent threat" concept. They are clearly a militarized nation, they are clearly trying to inflect (upwards) their military dominance over the region, and they clearly have no issue with killing 10x more civilians, routinely, than died in the largest US bombing campaign since Vietnam, perhaps since WW2 idk.  I understand your pov, but feel there are more civilians and issues at risk from the IRGC's continued existence than from the US bombing IRGC facilities.  Hopefully that makes sense. That said, to be totally honest with you, minimizing Iranian civilian deaths is not my #1 concern. Maximizing quality of life for US citizens and US allies' citizens is. It's just the world we live in today, and as I said previously, there would be less risk today if the US and its allies had been much more aggressive stomping upstart military rivals earlier in the past. Best wishes to you and your family. 

goodbodha

The toll is economically devastating for Europe. Europe might live with it for a bit, but some enterprising politician may decide this needs to be revisited with a war on a few years. The demands the US leave is quasi unreasonable. The Gulf states would be left wide open potentially. Note the Saudis now have a 3 way defense agreement with Pakistan and Turkey. That is directly to mitigate that risk. What it looks like is Iran wants us out and then they intend to topple Iraq and move beyond that into the Gulf states. Go look at the other tolls on cargo ships. The fees are dramatically lower and a large amount of those fees are to support tugs, pilots, and other expenses to make things go smoothly. This fee is far higher like hundreds of times higher and for nothing other than pay or else... As for accountability they could make several far more reasonable demands that would be lasting. They could demand Trump and Netanyahu resign to get a deal. They could demand the US has to join the ICC. They could demand the blockade stop. They could demand the US lose their seat on the UN security council. End of the day it will be what it will be, but this isn't resolved until everyone can live with the outcome. That was the WW1 mistake. Reparations were so stupidly high Germany couldn't endure them and turned to extreme political leaders. Did you know when Hitler took power the second place party was communist? That is what happens when people are told to pay for decisions others made and those payments make their lives unbearable.

_Reporting

Depends entirely on how successful it is. If it goes well. It will be seen as the best strategic military victory since WW2. If it goes bad it will be seen as the biggest self own since I’m not even sure

music_is_gud

WW4 will be fought with sticks and stones

Hwangoutpltr

100yrs from now, after WW4, the only music relic found will be an MF DOOM mixtape

Own-Recipe5908

I mean, bond market collapses happened all the time post-WW2. I think current fed has basically given up. They'll raise a little but it won't be as fast as '22 I'd guess. Either way, the way to play that is TLT and TMF short or longs.

Key-Organization3158

People earn way way more today than they did after WW2. Over the last 50 years, the real median personal income has risen 52.1% So the individual worker is getting a lot more in their paycheck.

westisbestmicah

This is unironically one of the major causes of WW2. Germany’s inflation deleted the debts of wealthy Junker landlords while their physical assets maintained value. So they encouraged to government to inflate more causing a positive feedback loop of hyperinflation.

LittleTrack858

That is well above long term average.  Taxation has run about 17% of gdp plus or minus 1 since WW2.  Spending has gotten out of control especially since 2020.

Onnimation

**Saudi Arabia braces for attacks on ports and airports by Iraqi militias working with Iran-backed Houthis** GG, I'm no doomer but damn this feels similar to WW1-WW2 years before it happened if you know your history

DisgrunltedDan

WW3 -.003 %  Deal made - +2% Nuke - 00000001% I’m sorry bout that ! Deal? +8%

imustbegthequestion

It's the most unnecessary company ever created. Just let BB NOKIA HTC MOTO GOOGL ZUNE AND IPOD be controlled by $DIS. WW2 IS OVER. WE GET IT. WE'LL BE READY FOR WW7.

IronyElSupremo

U.S. and ex-U.S. “world” (aka “developed” countries) used to trade leadership post WW2 recovery until the late ‘00s. “Emerging mkt” stocks became popular in the ‘00s led by China too. Since then it was mostly US stocks until mid 2024, when non-US started to take off. In 2022 Fidelity JP Morgan etc.. released research that for several decades the optimum mix was U.S. 70%, non U.S. 30% Bogle and others said non-U.S. wasn’t really needed but if desired, they recommended 20% max. Your call, though 80/20 is the mix for the top 100 global stocks (see iShares IOO etf). The last few months, stodgy European bank stocks beat the tech-rich S&P 500; the only excitement about European banks is when they show you the flower pot the banks founders used for a loo when Napoleon’s armies were invading outside. Just goes to show you can’t really predict what’s “hot” next. Why the U.S.? One big reason: The U.S. leads in tech for now and that tends to give explosive earnings when tech sizzles .. though the sector has always had a warning of competition and government regulation even back in the mutual sector fund days ‘80s-‘90s (spelled out in a paper prospectus). Guess what’s happening now? Also the U.S. tends to be more equity friendly with more of its GDP made up of stock. Still the last couple years, non-U.S. has rallied and is probably here to stay.

UnitedCup1814

I wonder if it's actually true the the is military can't afford to throw any more resources at that war without beconig vulnerable. I think the whole largest stack since WW2 was just bullshit to make it look 🥭 was on full controll of the situation and had to be held back

wanmoar

Hi OP, rebalancing to sleep better is always good. Sure, you might give up a few points in gains. Investing is about risk and reward. Earning a million but the process being having to have an open heart surgery in a WW1 trench isn't a good bet. You're okay far as I can tell

wanmoar

Hi OP, rebalancing to sleep better is always good. Sure, you might give up a few points in gains. Investing is about risk and reward. Earning a million but the process being having to have an open heart surgery in a WW1 trench isn't a good bet. You're okay far as I can tell

notmarduke

Biggest attack since WW2..  That would mean nukes right???

NoMore_stu

Man, WW3 really could kick off this year

darthjarhead

I guess WW3 just kicked off

justathought178

I think so, I'm guessing Nvidia will hit $300 around Dec earnings unless WW3 breaks out