ADBE

CMDR_Shepard96

Lol ADBE double downgraded and dumped.

CMDR_Shepard96

Sooo, ADBE green day when exactly?...

itsalwayscalls

This place is going to shit. ADBE is on the board.

Glittering_Dig3798

It's a little surprising that it took AI for ADBE to get some actual competition. They're a wretched company with sus business practices and I'm not just talking about how they normalized removing perpetual ownership of software. That was bound to happen but they take it to an extreme while they just enshitify their products. Preferred the last version? Too bad, now give me more money

BagholderForLyfe

ADBE puts seem too obvious in light of AI's ability to easily reverse engineer binaries.

Glittering_Dig3798

ADBE is most at risk of all the big saas names.

ItsyBitsySPYderman

So Ai reversed engineered all that Adobe software. Prolly buy some ADBE puts and other busines to client companies thats only product is software. Software As A Service may be dead in a couple years.

PaperHandsTheDip

ADBE puts? Some hackers using claude to make free versions of all their shit.

GregGirthman

ADBE did a little befkre AI and adjacents like FIG.

GregGirthman

Puts of ASTS, they lost their moat. Puts on ADBE, their products getting cloned.

Agreeable-Heron834

ie basically setting the floor at \~295, so unless ADBE really outperforms the AI moat narrative and climbs above that by Dec‑2027 you’re staring at a massive theta loss. the 250‑strike seems a stretch from today’s price, so the implied vol has to justify the premium you paid; if it doesn’t spike there’s a risk of a wipe‑out if the stock stays flat or falls. keep an eye on future volatility events and the burn‑rate of the LEAPS, and don’t get lulled by the hype around the new AI tools.

EdmontonLAD

Hmm, I think I might buy some ADBE puts on the news of the vibecoded Adobe suite release for free.

AbiesHot7081

First thing I thought when I saw "ADBE calls"

Antiwhippy

I used to, I don’t anymore because my company pays for it. And yeah my studio isn’t going to switch to this next week, but we’re talking about the LITERAL first days of this, not even the first WEEK. ADBE needs to find a new moat and value add

thenuttyhazlenut

Cloned software? That software is barely usable lol. And ADBE makes most of their money from enterprise contracts. Enterprise clients will not use cheap/free clone software and upload their proprietary content into it. OP clearly knows little about the industry and/or is a kiddo.

EvenCryptographer649

Bots shills supporting ADBE? Now I have seen everything. And their defense is as close to comical as you can get. ADBE needs to colab to enterprise with gemini like yesterday if it wants to survive. Not buying the old election harris bots to post nonsense.

miagill8

Why ADBE not SONY?

Fit-Argument854

Bought ADBE at $292 💀 Am I gonna make it out by the end of the year?

gigglychaddy

It’s crazy how ADBE has both long and short bag holders

Altruistic-Swing-224

Good time to buy some ADBE shares.

WendyDumpsterFire

Common LULU NKE MCD PEP INTU ADBE FISV

PigletBaseball

Ah another vibe coder who can only see the shiny bits. On the surface it looks great because afterall the model said it's "bug free and 100% working!" but if you actually understand the original software and required functionality, it is far from the case. Every single ADBE short post here all have fallen for the same trap. You aren't a professional designer. You don't understand the workflow. You see a copy and think it's a replacement when you have no idea. MMs thank you for your free money.

gizamo

Right, but I expect Adobe's legal team will cause hiccups for your position. Even if ArtCraft claims a clean-room build, Adobe can and historically has aggressively defended its intellectual property. They could send a cease-and-desist letter, pressure GitHub to take down repositories, or initiate a civil lawsuit claiming infringement or unfair competition. Those claims probably have merit, and a case would likely take months. More important, even the smell of such a suit brewing is enough to tank your puts. Still, I'm rooting for you and for ArtCraft. Personally, I'm waiting until after a suit is filed, and ADBE gets a pump from it. I expect they'll lose such a lawsuit, and that will cause a massive decline and it will help spur an exit from corporate America. Hopefully, you can get some gains here to ride that rollercoaster too. Cheers.

gizamo

I believe you wrote that yourself because AIstend to actually understand the law and previous court cases. Pretending that the US doesn't have precedent for cloned software is ignorant at best or worse, intentionally deceitful. As long as the clone stays away from patented features, it'll be fine, but that's easier said than done, and it will limit the cloning and parity. Adobe will still ultimately lose this battle, and I think this app cloning issue will spread throughout the overpriced software world. So, plenty of things to short once this concept actually grabs hold. It's just risky gambling on the first one, especially while it's so entrenched with companies and already at such a low PE with decent profits remaining. I think you're mostly correct, but I also think you're early for a true ADBE crash.

bubblegum-rose

“Guys I just used Claude to vibecode this machine that fucks my wife for me, I’m telling you Zuckerberg and Tim Apple are SHAKING IN THEIR BOOTS!!! They’re NEVER going to do better than this!!!” Just bought calls on ADBE, thank you for this post

1M-to-Zero

What do you think about ADBE

1M-to-Zero

What do you think ADBE play??

TomatoSpecialist6879

It's already broad enough, right now people are just coping that corporate won't switch and that means it won't affect ADBE's bottom line revenue. You have to understand prosumers and corporate won't give a shit unless someone can convince the higher ups that "Yes it is worth the switch", otherwise this will only kill the consumer side(which is sizable but won't end the business)

TomatoSpecialist6879

You don't need a ChatGPT writeup to know ADBE is cooked lmao, it just won't crash simply because you own puts

Mammoth_Control_364

ADBE has been cooked for two years. Thanks for just finding out lol.

SnortingElk

> 3k down in one day lmao true degeneracy Down even more today likely.. ADBE up to $241 now Those contracts are likely to be cooked before Adobe, lol

my_garagegym_name

Don't forget WMT and ADBE. 2000s are back!

prana_fish

$ADBE too. The premier safe-from-AI plays.

prana_fish

Ah yes. $ADBE. The premier, totally not a shitco, jacking up on complete fundamentals. Full port this dumb bitch.

Alwaysfavoriteasian

How are my ADBE calls doing?

halcyonandon

Adobe is actively launching AI assisted workflows across the entire creative suite and you are playing options at a $150 strike for March!? Those will definitely expire worthless even if you are incredibly bearish on the company. Every single intrinsic value model you can run has ADBE undervalued… by a lot

traderbusto

everything red but that ADBE some schmuck spent hours on bearish DD about

Whipitreelgud

The core issue with ADBE is their services have been replicated by freeware or AI. Combine loss of unique services with their aggressive subscription pricing that alienated any brand loyalty they had with their consumers and you have a bonfire. They will have a little stickiness with corporate customers who don’t want freeware on their desktop footprint. This company is going the way Wang.

Limp-Advantage-1663

At the speed ADBE moves at pivoting is not possible. If what OP is saying is true, and companies are ok with using open source photoshop, ADBE is mega fucked

Schwimmbo

This is what I have repeated endlessly in other software and ADBE threads. People who genuinely believe companies will replace the embedded software which offers security and enterprise grade support because Steve vibe coded something in the basement... They simply are students in their dorm rooms frustrated about their 4 shares which are down 25% who have never worked in a real company before.

appearstobeidiot

ADBE could have pivoted when Canva knocked the door down.

Deto

Isn't it also, just, that even at $70/mo, that's just really peanuts compared to a person's salary. Like why would you use some vibe-coded alternative if you are a serious professional? Now hobbyists and university students - they'll go with something else. But how much of ADBE's revenue comes from that?

Alwaysfavoriteasian

Sold PUT on ADBE, 1/15/27... $320. 1-10 how fucked am I?

abandoned_idol

You have convinced me OP. I am going to build a huge position in ADBE today. I just have to figure out which stocks I'll sell in order to do that.

banditcleaner2

For long puts to pay, the stock doesn't have to go to zero, and it doesn't even have to drop fast. It just has to drop faster then the market is currently expecting right now when you buy the puts, to make money. Look at 09/2027 puts. $230 put which is basically ATM right now is selling for $34. That means you need the stock to go below $195 at some point up until 09/2027 to profit. ADBE is down 33% YoY right now, if the slide continues at that exact same pace you are looking at about a 117% profit. If it accelerates then you're making more.

ashjohnr

How are these already down 25%? 💀 ADBE is still down 2% today.

TheRealRefuro

I'm actually totally with you here. I just opened up a very large short position last night. In the last week, the decomp field with AI just opened up broadly. ADBE is a SaaS company that relies on subscriptions. People have within hours now decompiled their entire suite and made it open sourcem. It's basically 1:1 and any new updates can be decomp'd within hours. It may take a few months, but their moat is dying. And it's not just ADBE, it's any SaaS without hardware or businesses intertwined such as Salesforce, so I'm in with you. Check out Photon studio if you want to see for yourself

DragonFuelTanker

Yeah this is not the price to short ADBE. I’m long at a 197 cost basis.

Stitch426

Too low of strike and not enough time. 52 week low is $190. In June they beat expectations, which shows the company still has the customers to surprise to the upside. Lowest analyst rating on Adobe’s Finviz is BofA at $190. They are below 20, 50, and 200 SMA and broke down below their channel. Looks like they have a gap below to fill and gaps above to fill. The gap below isn’t too far from current price, and gaps above are around $275. I think there is going to be a call back to more realistic looking graphics, pictures, advertisements, etc. AI slop is not a real sales driver. Sure, it can cut costs… but it can also open the door for lawsuits with false advertisement, misrepresentation, or having errors that aren’t factual. https://finviz.com/stock?t=ADBE&p=d

craigslisp

i remember getting smoked trying to go long $ADBE in 2024 when the thesis behind this due diligence began gaining steam. The stock was around $500 then, so I think you jump in here with the right idea, but late. So, tentative yes but have caution/hedge.

NerdSlamPo

I wish I bought ADBE back in July tbh. But CRM really has been the worst. down $700 today, $2k overall. It'll go back up at some point, but for now its wrecking my investment port

Ambitious_Snow840

You don't have the third horseman of RDDT falling knives, ADBE?

pewpewpewmoon

because if you see the code you'll understand how ADBE survives AI It isn't even feature parity yet, much less the questionable architecture choices I won't link it, but search for a gh user called storytold

pineapplekiwipen

it doesn't many software companies could survive AI at least in the short term but ADBE is probably not one of them

Vivid-Rip5227

Short ADBE?

Vivid-Rip5227

Surely with how everyone is creating their own photoshop and premiere pro, short ADBE?

DigitalKaiju2919

30% RDDT and 28% ADBE with the rest being cash.

Rameist2

ADBE, MSFT, RDDT 20% up in the next Fee weeks or calls in rope.

Flimsy_Sort9128

going all in ADBE at 8x forward PE lol

WendyDumpsterFire

LULU NKE MCD PEP FICO INTU ADBE etc

CMDR_Shepard96

Sigh. ADBE once again, ruining me. A month straight of dumping, when does it end. AVGO isn't much better.. ofc I pick the worst chip stock

CMDR_Shepard96

Which stock will dump more tomorrow, AVGO or ADBE.

CMDR_Shepard96

Praying for my ADBE & AVGO positions 😮‍💨 why am I so bad at this

CMDR_Shepard96

I think AVGO takes the cake for biggest POS. Maybe competing with my ADBE position

CMDR_Shepard96

47-14k in September. Red every day for a month straight. ADBE, CRM, INTU, AVGO.

CMDR_Shepard96

ADBE I really fucking hate you FYI

CMDR_Shepard96

MSFT Green enough to fuck my puts. ADBE/CRM Give up 5% pumps within an hour and fuck my calls. I hate this shit

CMDR_Shepard96

Ofc ADBE/CRM/INTU/SAP/SHOP give up basically their entire pump within an hour

sayinmer

anyone arguing about ADBE being dead has obviously not used Adobe Analytics or AJO. guess what your precious AI needs to be able to determine user engagement? see y’all in a few years when we’re up double digits

Own-Preference7010

I like that the ranking is not just low P E equals cheap. Penalizing things like cash conversion, cycle risk and capex makes the comparisons much more interesting. Adobe and Intuit are probably the clearest tests of whether AI fear is already over-discounted. I might watch names like ADBE or NVDA on Moon for the shorter-term reaction, but the three-to-five-year thesis obviously needs a completely different framework.

appearstobeidiot

ADBE is a landline in the era of mobile phones.

VlauderLauder24

ADBE

DressedInPolo

If this is what Grok is being used for I guess, puts on ADBE, and puts on America https://preview.redd.it/cyg68qkh47sh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa27bc9f5ed67d00299e23b32c2feb0bcd3920ee

Ambitious_Snow840

Everyone and their mom that uses ADBE is looking to get out of it, ASAP. All it will take is one company or creation. THEY ARE HATED.

greenpride32

Yup I remember sometime ago GIMP was very popular (perhaps it still is) for more simple edits. But many of these users are either using freeware or nothing; they aren't exactly a loss of sale for ADBE. With that said, the true reason for stock decline is slowing from 20%+ top line growth YoY to 10%. It's s similar story/numbers with a CRM. Without the growth, you lose the premium. That's what separate the outstanding companies (megacaps) from the good to great. The megacaps are still growing top line at anywhere from 18-100%, and that's on much larger base number than and ADBE or CRM.

Original-Poet1825

I don’t think this vibe coded app in particular will impact ADBE, but I will be surprised if in the next 5 years a small serious team will not compete away ADBEs non enterprise users… or atleast entirely commoditize their pricing power to the point that they will be forced to destroy their margin. It can happen really fast (see how fast Figma ate the design space).

Reyals140

**Title:** Autist discovers a software company that makes money, assumes everyone involved has brain damage. --- **BEARS:** "Adobe is dead! ChatGPT made a picture of Shrek fighting Jerome Powell in a Costco parking lot, so Photoshop is going to zero! Sell the office chairs!" **THE CHARTS:** 📉 (Stock down 60% from ATH down to $239 like it got taken behind a Wendy's and shot) **THE ACTUAL BUSINESS:** * Revenue? Up 13%. * Cash flow? Printing billions. * 1 Billion monthly users trying to rotate a PDF. * Doing massive share buybacks (*Schlorrrp*) instead of diluting us like typical tech degenerates. **WALL STREET:** "Eww, legacy software. Dead company. Must be Blockbuster." **OP WHO LEARNED DCF 15 MINUTES AGO:** "Where is the corpse?? I cannot find the fucking body!!" **Conclusion:** Buying a company because it prints cash instead of purely gambling on 0DTE options? What are we even doing here? Anyway, taking out a second mortgage to buy ADBE at 13x earnings. *Not financial advice. See you behind the dumpster.*

arbitraryBlue

Fuck ADBE and their stupid ass subscription model

LaMeraVergaSinPatas

Hey Gemini please summarize this and then make me a cute picture of a regard sinking on a ship called S.S. ADBE

Free_Consequence3123

Yup, and that's why ADBE is screwed. Also this post is garbage since op didn't post their positions.

ElkEven1407

I got in on ADBE a couple of months ago. I search for durable compounders that are down significantly with their core value prop in tact. Adbe fits, big upside potential

DarrenOTM

There never was a SaaSpocolypse. There was a sale on SaaS stocks though. CRM, NOW and ADBE were all hit but it was clear that they are infrastructure and AI will help them increase revenue and profits. They were never competing.

Mother-Style6479

Naah, we were swinging $RDDT and $ADBE and trying to find a good exit. We already have memory at home.

CMDR_Shepard96

Woke up to see my Feb'27 ADBE 300C even further through the floor.. "There are a lot of tech stocks that are down today on Muse-related ⁠fears of one sort or another," said Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management. "People fear that Muse will be used to manage your insurance relationships, book your travel and search for stuff to buy" Sorry but who the fuck is trusting an AI agent to handle any of that stuff.. *You're right to push back, I should have included ambulancer cover in your healthcare"

Rameist2

Dear lord, I promise I’ll take profits this time. Just bring MSFT back to 520, ADBE back to 285, and NOW to 170.

prana_fish

Die $ADBE you piece of shit. Went up on nothing but podboi inverse AI balancing.

sharkenleo

ADBE a buy here?

DressedInPolo

Unfortunately i dont have a very streamlined method, I jsut stopped trading 20+ stuff and just focused on like 5 stocks that I found success with. Only thing i can say is instead of buying a bbunch of options, i bought the stock, watched how it moved in my portfolio then just bought options based on what kinda makes sense at the time, sorry this isnt too helpful Its not guarnteed to work, no method is, 70% of it is luck, I didnt know AI heads would say somethign stupid, I just knew STRL was sitting in my portfolio for a month, hit 455, then randomly went to 520 in a week? I bought puts ADBE hasnt changed anything and is still the same company but climbed from 190 to 280 in a month? I bought puts

DressedInPolo

NVDA calls when the market was skittish about AMD earnings BE Calls after the sell off ADBE puts when it was climbing to 280+ on nothing but sentiment

iYoloNDX0DTEs

Long ADBE……you realize their business model is cooked right?

steem99

short: MRNA, RBRK, SNOW long: ADBE, UBER, GFS, TTWO, KTOS

United_Weight3580

Unionically ADBE

CMDR_Shepard96

So, INTU -3% on Monday at open, ADBE -2.5%, and CRM -1.2%?

ImSoClassy

It is interesting how reliably ADBE goes up when all the AI stocks go down. I hold some as a hedge as well but I'm not bold enough to start shorting the pure AI stocks.

Special_Director2813

So ADBE will go down for a long time from now 🙋🏻‍♂️

Beginning_Juice_4296

How is ADBE down premarket

Beginning_Juice_4296

FIG and ADBE finna go on an ABSOLUTE TEAR. yall big face heauxs ain't fuckin with me

Beginning_Juice_4296

ADBE and FIG mooning today

fakemedicines

Was so so close to offloading my heaviest bags in NVO and ADBE and they both just pulled back hard

MBNLLC

does $ADBE have big news coming? Seems too cheap to ignore at this level