ADBE

default_accounts

what about ADBE?

Aggressive-Donkey-10

Investing from the top down is Macro-economic investing, very difficult to do, but would recc anything by Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Capital, he employs macro to rotate billions into different sectors depending upon which of the four inflation/growth quadrants the economy is currently in. Also look into Stanley druckenmiller too. Better way to invest is value investing from bottom up approach of looking for individual high quality companies temporarily down due to limited events. ie META 3 yrs ago when CEO had the idea to waste 80 Billion on "Metaverse", or ADBE, CRM, NOW, WDAY etc 3 months ago when world thought AI would destroy software as a service. GOOG 2 years ago when AI would end search. wait for transient weakness then pull the trigger

abandoned_idol

This is WSB!!! I am saying this as a loser that buys boring tickers like VFIAX, ADBE, GOOG, MELI, TSM, DLO, QCOM We are not shaming them, smart investors are shameful!!!

CMDR_Shepard96

I don't reckon this pump will hold into the weekend. But what I do know is that my ADBE calls will dump for the second month in a row

Thetagang888

so glad i own ADBE leaps. What a safe haven today. But they are down 99% already this year lol

Junpei_desu

Call the market police, ADBE is up

CMDR_Shepard96

So, the death of AI. So ofc ADBE is flat.

Cav829

Bargain bin stock shopping rarely pays off outside of after a market crash. MSFT last year and GOOGL the year before are rare examples of the opposite. But look at how many people have chased the likes of ADBE all the way down. And like you alluded to, if the AI bubble pops. Why do you want to buy AI stocks? Yeah, when the dust clears you can buy them for years in the future. But there’s no rush on that.

ItsyBitsySPYderman

Im holding puts on ADBE instead of literally anything else. You can't make this shit up.

CMDR_Shepard96

Yeah I'm a retard. Should've just FOMOd into memory at the start, probably would've had some profits left. Instead I bought Gold Miners & Software in March, rode that down to basically zero, then pivoted to AVGO, and held onto some ADBE (Which so far has managed to be the only software stock that hadn't really recovered at all). I should start inversing myself.. Did buy an ARM put yesterday though so maybe this is the bottom for chips.

Schwimmbo

I have PYPL, ADBE, MU, and AMD. Does that make me schizophrenic?

CMDR_Shepard96

After losing all my money on ADBE, AVGO, and SOXL calls, I'm having a go at ARM Puts

Cav829

The sold out orders are requisite on Open AI and Anthropic being able to pay their bills when they're massively unprofitable cash incinerators. You're going to be sitting there waiting months if not another year to hope to win a debate with the market. I don't make the rules. I don't agree with a lot of shit in the stock market. It don't matter. Arguing with the market is how ValueInvesting is stock with portfolios consisting 80% of PYPL, ADBE, and NVO.

CMDR_Shepard96

I should never have touched ADBE.

CMDR_Shepard96

Me looking at my ADBE & AVGO Positions

Pension2options

Due to selling exclusively naked puts, I rarely force myself into a position--my recent "horrible" entry was in Jan with ADBE: held it for about 6 months before exiting with 50% gain (220P STO at $309; dropped to Low $190...yea....; on up swing BTC at $252). The math was still in my favor: 220P x 20% = $4,400 held in collateral which would earn $154 INT (SPAXX 3.5%) in 12mo or $77 in 6mo, but I realized $239 in 6mo. Cutting losers is not my trading style (EL and NVDA \[and SCHW\] got called away; same will be with DUOL): https://preview.redd.it/z3nnyhqqy3zh1.png?width=985&format=png&auto=webp&s=877897e11bc713e66391adccef3005c06b24ba21

Redditor2000000

Yawn. Why are you fighting for pennies on this when there are massively inflated stocks you could be making massive profits on? INTC, CAT, PLTR, all have had big losses, all still in the stratosphere too. As people have already tried explaining to you, what you’re betting on with ADBE was priced in 10 months ago.

IG_Triple_OG

Comparing GOOGL to ADBE is wild. Not even an apple to oranges comparison.

TheNplus1

I’ve been in some non-AI stocks and definitely can’t complain. Like ACN, ADBE, AAPL… I’m slightly in the red today, almost all from CRWD which makes sense lol

Quixotus

ADBE +2% the market is saved

deslyfox

I've also become highly regarded after gambling with HUB, NOW, BA, ADBE, INTC, AVGO

TheGoodSurgeon

ADBE will save us all 🔮

blerg-blip

How is ADBE up? Seriously.

ItsyBitsySPYderman

Of course the ticker im holding puts on is up 1.6% this morning. I swear to god ADBE is the inverse of SPY

gregzicstock

You're exaggerating, ADBE is green, up .25%.

CoC_Axis_of_Evil

My hesitation to buy AI proves true today. Santa rally is in doubt if YTDs go negative into Q4. Dems regulating AI as polls get worse, will snowball this.  IGV is being blasted today. Software even worse. I still think ADBE is cool at some price, I’ll keep lurking in the bushes. 

carnitas_mondays

NOW is part of a SAAS bucket investment along with ADBE, INTU, TEAM, CRM, and a few smaller others. NOW and TEAM are the highest multiples of the bunch and need to grow to defend that multiple thesis. If the thesis breaks, i’d sell it all quite quickly.

Left_Spite4379

Tbf the value tards have been on GOOG for several years now, and the NKE and ADBE slop gets laughed away fast. Birkshire has also been buying anything below 350. I do think we maybe see 250s or lower but I’ll be buying the way down

CharlesElwoodYeager

Yeah that's what these retards are missing. NOW assfucked the entire SAAS sector. That's just a straight up rotation play. It's down from ADBE to CRM and all that money is going into semis

CMDR_Shepard96

Of course ADBE dumps for literally no reason.

CMDR_Shepard96

I genuinely do not understand ADBE stock price. Kangaroo behaviour.

CMDR_Shepard96

The rest of the software stocks had a solid few weeks. But ADBE, nope. More dumping immediately

CMDR_Shepard96

I fucken hate ADBE.

CMDR_Shepard96

I really thought ADBE was rounding a corner last week. Sigh

CMDR_Shepard96

Can ADBE just not be a piece of shit for once

Icy-Sheepherder-7595

42% MSFT at $390 per share 25% VTI at $357 10% ADBE at $247 9% GOOG at $317 6% METU at $19.52 6% META at $595 2% FXAIX at $207 Total portfolio value $145,880

Own-Recipe5908

Wonder if ADBE mooning today was a sign of leopoldo getting murdered, since he shorted SAAS to buy AI last time, too.

Bagholder147

LULU, ADBE and IWM calls. The great rotation is here

TheGoodSurgeon

ADBE called to say f\*ck you all 🫵😤

bullishchilipepper10

ADBE 260p

DDnHODL

You used Muse ? If u used Claude u would have run out of tokens , but yea ADBE will soon file chapter 11 !!!

CMDR_Shepard96

So, uh, what's green?.. my AVGO and SOXL are red as hell, which usually means my ADBE is green (once a month).. but nope.

Valkyrie_Skuld

nothing is too big to fail, at one point ADBE was too big to fail.

Ambitious_Snow840

Can the earnings call save NFLX bulls? Or is NFLX the new ADBE over at r/valueinvesting?

ShankThatSnitch

I don't think you understand the moat that ADBE actually has. Some broken AI photoshop is not killing Adobe's moat.

ero3535

too early, that ai slop repo isn't enough to crush their moat. I'm waiting for the open source image editing & t2i to get better. One or two more krea versions will definitely fuck ADBE up for good, at least on the retail side

DancingCow

If you have ADSK, get out. They'll be the next ADBE

Beginning_Juice_4296

KOSPI dropping. NKE, ADBE, FIG finna be a safe haven

Amaeyth

Google and VOO/SPY. The rest is ADBE/IGV

RevolutionaryGold325

Market wants to grow. It rewards the companies that find a way for it to grow while punishing the ones that provide suboptimal (outdated) solutions. We are seeing this dynamic in realtime as the software companies are collapsing while the AI is starting to offer a new alternative (see ADBE).

LightseekerLife

Fair. This is just going to boil down to a difference of opinion and I am not a Wall Street insider, so I don't know for sure. What I do know is that ADBE already hit $190 based on this fear and now that the fear is codified I think it will do that again at minimum.

Liquidsnake959

SAAS is in a bit of trouble over the next 5 years. At least the likes of FIG, ADBE, INTUIT etc...

abandoned_idol

I was excited to see my ADBE position go +4% while I see the AI stuff plummet. My TSM went down, but I am holding that until I die anyways.

ykoreaa

Yeah, WMT sounds like the safer bet to have if you want exposure outside tech/Ai 😄 I'm not afraid of ADSK dying but since Ai now render 3d models (and illustration/wireframes too for ADBE).. if I have to have creative software companies in my port, I should've went with ADBE, for the reason you stated.

PassableForAWombat

ADSK moat smaller than ADBE, but they won't die -- at worst they get a buyout. NKE is def a LONG long play, imported factory line work but they still kept their warehousing system from direct to customer sales, WMT can turn around pretty quickly. The numbers are strong and they have assets to cover a longer downturn.

ykoreaa

Don't Nike import most of their inventory? With 🥭 and his tariffs, I'm not sure how advantageous Nike is rn, especially since it's losing market share of customers? I know you went long on them but since I'm borrowing money to trade idk if I have the time to have cash sit on it for an extended period. But really hope it brings in big bangers for you!! NOW made a really good comeback. I wish I invested in that or ADBE instead of ADSK 🥲

PassableForAWombat

Customer facing ones have taken a BEATING. Nike has potential to regain since their supply channels are still in place and can be sold out from under them. WMT is sitting cash-heavy but they had to swallow a lot of that PPI from tariffs and the war, and compared to tech about... 24 hours ago just was unappealing. People are running for whatever they can find, as evidenced by NOW and ADBE gains and staying there

Basement_Lover

rip ADBE bears

richard-b-inya

Apparently I do know how it works. AI has been selling off all week. ADBE pumping. They move inverse to each other.

Jazzlike-Maize8537

How is ADBE still alive?

Alive_Signal1722

Oh, I am totally going to hop on ADBE and NKE now /s

abandoned_idol

I could rotate my ADBE (green today), but I refuse to let go of my ADBE.

abandoned_idol

ADBE. Biggest mistake of my life. Bought it at $234 hoping that it would behave like a normal stock. I can't make sense of you ADBE. What's wrong with you? Bad adobe, bad. **strikes with rolled up newspaper**

ListerineInMyPeehole

There's open source ADBE suite now man... and it only gets better as people build it out.

CMDR_Shepard96

Wtf do I even do with my Feb'27 ADBE Calls. They're -60% and just depressing to watch. That stock can't hold a green candle for more than 5 minutes..

CMDR_Shepard96

Sooo, why is everything red? And I don't mean my ADBE. That's always red.

EndTheFed25

All I know is $ADBE, $MSFT, $CRM and $INTU are cooked because of anthropics Ai. Not to mention all video game stocks as well. ArtCraft is just the start, if you're not shorting big software you're missing out.

internetsoci0path

Alright. 50/50 with 10k between these options 145 ORCL Calls 10/23 exp X 227.5 ADBE Puts 10/23 exp ADD on to BAC Puts 10/23, rolled from the ones I'm holding now X 227.5 ADBE Puts 10/23 exp

LightseekerLife

Dude... I am a SWE at a major corporation. Almost none of us write code anymore lol. I think you are living on hopium like the ADBE bros on this thread. You are repeating the same strawman argument about Photopea. This is different. Opus 5.5 can crank out bug fixes almost faster than you can type them and these historical items were relying on the goodwill of the few devs who also happened to be photo enthusiasts and did work out of the goodness of their heart. Now, people hook up their agent to Github's issues and it is slamming tickets overnight while they sleep. If you are actually an SWE, then you must be older or out of touch. It will soon get to the point that if you are actually writing code as an SWE you are a liability and not an asset.

LightseekerLife

In the long-term I think. This will really start to dive after their revenue starts shrinking and the surprising amount of hopium ADBE fanboys realize their "fantastic P/E" ratio is a fallacy and is the mark of a dying company.

2Hosslovescash

Time to buy NVO and ADBE. Absolute pieces of shit.

ThetaEdgeHQ

The 200 SMA on its own is not telling you much because it is a trend and skew proxy, not a vol signal. Below it, put skew steepens, so your OTM put prices richer, but you are being paid more because the distribution has gone left skewed, not because the stock is done falling. The level matters less than two things: the slope of that average and where price sits in its recent range. A name below a falling 200 that keeps printing new lows, like ADBE, is a different animal from a name below a flat 200 that has been basing for two months with vol starting to mean revert. Same side of the line, opposite trades. So I would drop the 200 as a binary and ask whether the thing is still making lower lows and whether I actually want the shares at my strike. If the answer to the second one is no, the premium does not matter.

54108216

Still laughing at the whole ADBE ordeal. Tell me why I shouldn’t just short a r/valueinvesting basket at this point.

noobletato

Loaded up on ADBE puts. Let's get this shit to 0

NorthOfTheStrike

I still sell under the 200 day but I shrink size and push strikes down. The question is not the chart, it is whether you want the shares at that strike. ADBE is the trap. Premium looks fat because the market keeps pricing in more downside. Today I sold MARA Oct 16 $9 puts for $8 and SOFI Oct 16 $15 puts for $13. I will take both names at those strikes all day. Last week I rolled the HIMS Oct 9 $29.50 covered call out to Oct 16 $29.50. Bought it back for $141, sold the new one for $199, net $58 credit. That one was underwater and I would rather keep collecting than take assignment. Beat up and cheap is fine. Beat up and still expensive is a pass.

richard-b-inya

I think you are trying to apply logic to markets which generally doesn't work. More so in non buy and hold strats. Just simply go back and look at SMH days and see what ADBE, or really most SAAS companies do when SMH is up or down. I held CRM and ADBE puts earlier this year for really good gains so I was constantly watching. When the AI trade was pumping, SAAS went down. When the AI trade was pulling back, SAAS went up. They are inverse trades. At the end of the day short any SAAS is just long AI.

vivavip1

All in on ADBE puts? 😏

iron_condor34

I mean, if you're playing direction then yeah. My broker has ADBE implied vol at 52% percentile and realized only at 27%. Doesn't seem like a bad sell if you hedge your deltas

Bright-Wait-4572

Beaten-up names pay well because the market is pricing more downside, not because the downside is over. Below the 200 day you usually get elevated IV plus steeper put skew, so an OTM put looks rich exactly when the stock has shown it can keep falling. ADBE is the textbook case: every leg down reset the premium higher and the strike lower. The MA itself doesn’t change the math. The gap between implied and what the stock actually realized is the whole trade. If IV is well above what the stock has actually been moving, the premium is overpaying for the drop. If they’re close, you’re being paid fair value to catch a knife.

ButteryChivalry072

ADBE vol has been pretty quiet last I checked, not much edge there unless you catching a spike. i mostly avoid selling when the stock is already below that 200 line, feels like catching a falling knife most days

iron_condor34

I never look at a MA. How's ADBE vol doing should be the main concern, really.

drazayn99

God willing I live long enough to see dogshit ADBE and ORCL go to zero.

CMDR_Shepard96

Lol ADBE double downgraded and dumped.

CMDR_Shepard96

Sooo, ADBE green day when exactly?...

itsalwayscalls

This place is going to shit. ADBE is on the board.

Glittering_Dig3798

It's a little surprising that it took AI for ADBE to get some actual competition. They're a wretched company with sus business practices and I'm not just talking about how they normalized removing perpetual ownership of software. That was bound to happen but they take it to an extreme while they just enshitify their products. Preferred the last version? Too bad, now give me more money

BagholderForLyfe

ADBE puts seem too obvious in light of AI's ability to easily reverse engineer binaries.

Glittering_Dig3798

ADBE is most at risk of all the big saas names.

ItsyBitsySPYderman

So Ai reversed engineered all that Adobe software. Prolly buy some ADBE puts and other busines to client companies thats only product is software. Software As A Service may be dead in a couple years.

PaperHandsTheDip

ADBE puts? Some hackers using claude to make free versions of all their shit.

GregGirthman

ADBE did a little befkre AI and adjacents like FIG.

GregGirthman

Puts of ASTS, they lost their moat. Puts on ADBE, their products getting cloned.

Agreeable-Heron834

ie basically setting the floor at \~295, so unless ADBE really outperforms the AI moat narrative and climbs above that by Dec‑2027 you’re staring at a massive theta loss. the 250‑strike seems a stretch from today’s price, so the implied vol has to justify the premium you paid; if it doesn’t spike there’s a risk of a wipe‑out if the stock stays flat or falls. keep an eye on future volatility events and the burn‑rate of the LEAPS, and don’t get lulled by the hype around the new AI tools.

EdmontonLAD

Hmm, I think I might buy some ADBE puts on the news of the vibecoded Adobe suite release for free.

AbiesHot7081

First thing I thought when I saw "ADBE calls"

Antiwhippy

I used to, I don’t anymore because my company pays for it. And yeah my studio isn’t going to switch to this next week, but we’re talking about the LITERAL first days of this, not even the first WEEK. ADBE needs to find a new moat and value add

thenuttyhazlenut

Cloned software? That software is barely usable lol. And ADBE makes most of their money from enterprise contracts. Enterprise clients will not use cheap/free clone software and upload their proprietary content into it. OP clearly knows little about the industry and/or is a kiddo.

EvenCryptographer649

Bots shills supporting ADBE? Now I have seen everything. And their defense is as close to comical as you can get. ADBE needs to colab to enterprise with gemini like yesterday if it wants to survive. Not buying the old election harris bots to post nonsense.

miagill8

Why ADBE not SONY?

Fit-Argument854

Bought ADBE at $292 💀 Am I gonna make it out by the end of the year?