ADBE

Amaeyth

Google and VOO/SPY. The rest is ADBE/IGV

RevolutionaryGold325

Market wants to grow. It rewards the companies that find a way for it to grow while punishing the ones that provide suboptimal (outdated) solutions. We are seeing this dynamic in realtime as the software companies are collapsing while the AI is starting to offer a new alternative (see ADBE).

LightseekerLife

Fair. This is just going to boil down to a difference of opinion and I am not a Wall Street insider, so I don't know for sure. What I do know is that ADBE already hit $190 based on this fear and now that the fear is codified I think it will do that again at minimum.

Liquidsnake959

SAAS is in a bit of trouble over the next 5 years. At least the likes of FIG, ADBE, INTUIT etc...

abandoned_idol

I was excited to see my ADBE position go +4% while I see the AI stuff plummet. My TSM went down, but I am holding that until I die anyways.

ykoreaa

Yeah, WMT sounds like the safer bet to have if you want exposure outside tech/Ai 😄 I'm not afraid of ADSK dying but since Ai now render 3d models (and illustration/wireframes too for ADBE).. if I have to have creative software companies in my port, I should've went with ADBE, for the reason you stated.

PassableForAWombat

ADSK moat smaller than ADBE, but they won't die -- at worst they get a buyout. NKE is def a LONG long play, imported factory line work but they still kept their warehousing system from direct to customer sales, WMT can turn around pretty quickly. The numbers are strong and they have assets to cover a longer downturn.

ykoreaa

Don't Nike import most of their inventory? With 🥭 and his tariffs, I'm not sure how advantageous Nike is rn, especially since it's losing market share of customers? I know you went long on them but since I'm borrowing money to trade idk if I have the time to have cash sit on it for an extended period. But really hope it brings in big bangers for you!! NOW made a really good comeback. I wish I invested in that or ADBE instead of ADSK 🥲

PassableForAWombat

Customer facing ones have taken a BEATING. Nike has potential to regain since their supply channels are still in place and can be sold out from under them. WMT is sitting cash-heavy but they had to swallow a lot of that PPI from tariffs and the war, and compared to tech about... 24 hours ago just was unappealing. People are running for whatever they can find, as evidenced by NOW and ADBE gains and staying there

Basement_Lover

rip ADBE bears

richard-b-inya

Apparently I do know how it works. AI has been selling off all week. ADBE pumping. They move inverse to each other.

Jazzlike-Maize8537

How is ADBE still alive?

Alive_Signal1722

Oh, I am totally going to hop on ADBE and NKE now /s

abandoned_idol

I could rotate my ADBE (green today), but I refuse to let go of my ADBE.

abandoned_idol

ADBE. Biggest mistake of my life. Bought it at $234 hoping that it would behave like a normal stock. I can't make sense of you ADBE. What's wrong with you? Bad adobe, bad. **strikes with rolled up newspaper**

ListerineInMyPeehole

There's open source ADBE suite now man... and it only gets better as people build it out.

CMDR_Shepard96

Wtf do I even do with my Feb'27 ADBE Calls. They're -60% and just depressing to watch. That stock can't hold a green candle for more than 5 minutes..

CMDR_Shepard96

Sooo, why is everything red? And I don't mean my ADBE. That's always red.

EndTheFed25

All I know is $ADBE, $MSFT, $CRM and $INTU are cooked because of anthropics Ai. Not to mention all video game stocks as well. ArtCraft is just the start, if you're not shorting big software you're missing out.

internetsoci0path

Alright. 50/50 with 10k between these options 145 ORCL Calls 10/23 exp X 227.5 ADBE Puts 10/23 exp ADD on to BAC Puts 10/23, rolled from the ones I'm holding now X 227.5 ADBE Puts 10/23 exp

LightseekerLife

Dude... I am a SWE at a major corporation. Almost none of us write code anymore lol. I think you are living on hopium like the ADBE bros on this thread. You are repeating the same strawman argument about Photopea. This is different. Opus 5.5 can crank out bug fixes almost faster than you can type them and these historical items were relying on the goodwill of the few devs who also happened to be photo enthusiasts and did work out of the goodness of their heart. Now, people hook up their agent to Github's issues and it is slamming tickets overnight while they sleep. If you are actually an SWE, then you must be older or out of touch. It will soon get to the point that if you are actually writing code as an SWE you are a liability and not an asset.

LightseekerLife

In the long-term I think. This will really start to dive after their revenue starts shrinking and the surprising amount of hopium ADBE fanboys realize their "fantastic P/E" ratio is a fallacy and is the mark of a dying company.

2Hosslovescash

Time to buy NVO and ADBE. Absolute pieces of shit.

ThetaEdgeHQ

The 200 SMA on its own is not telling you much because it is a trend and skew proxy, not a vol signal. Below it, put skew steepens, so your OTM put prices richer, but you are being paid more because the distribution has gone left skewed, not because the stock is done falling. The level matters less than two things: the slope of that average and where price sits in its recent range. A name below a falling 200 that keeps printing new lows, like ADBE, is a different animal from a name below a flat 200 that has been basing for two months with vol starting to mean revert. Same side of the line, opposite trades. So I would drop the 200 as a binary and ask whether the thing is still making lower lows and whether I actually want the shares at my strike. If the answer to the second one is no, the premium does not matter.

54108216

Still laughing at the whole ADBE ordeal. Tell me why I shouldn’t just short a r/valueinvesting basket at this point.

noobletato

Loaded up on ADBE puts. Let's get this shit to 0

NorthOfTheStrike

I still sell under the 200 day but I shrink size and push strikes down. The question is not the chart, it is whether you want the shares at that strike. ADBE is the trap. Premium looks fat because the market keeps pricing in more downside. Today I sold MARA Oct 16 $9 puts for $8 and SOFI Oct 16 $15 puts for $13. I will take both names at those strikes all day. Last week I rolled the HIMS Oct 9 $29.50 covered call out to Oct 16 $29.50. Bought it back for $141, sold the new one for $199, net $58 credit. That one was underwater and I would rather keep collecting than take assignment. Beat up and cheap is fine. Beat up and still expensive is a pass.

richard-b-inya

I think you are trying to apply logic to markets which generally doesn't work. More so in non buy and hold strats. Just simply go back and look at SMH days and see what ADBE, or really most SAAS companies do when SMH is up or down. I held CRM and ADBE puts earlier this year for really good gains so I was constantly watching. When the AI trade was pumping, SAAS went down. When the AI trade was pulling back, SAAS went up. They are inverse trades. At the end of the day short any SAAS is just long AI.

vivavip1

All in on ADBE puts? 😏

iron_condor34

I mean, if you're playing direction then yeah. My broker has ADBE implied vol at 52% percentile and realized only at 27%. Doesn't seem like a bad sell if you hedge your deltas

Bright-Wait-4572

Beaten-up names pay well because the market is pricing more downside, not because the downside is over. Below the 200 day you usually get elevated IV plus steeper put skew, so an OTM put looks rich exactly when the stock has shown it can keep falling. ADBE is the textbook case: every leg down reset the premium higher and the strike lower. The MA itself doesn’t change the math. The gap between implied and what the stock actually realized is the whole trade. If IV is well above what the stock has actually been moving, the premium is overpaying for the drop. If they’re close, you’re being paid fair value to catch a knife.

ButteryChivalry072

ADBE vol has been pretty quiet last I checked, not much edge there unless you catching a spike. i mostly avoid selling when the stock is already below that 200 line, feels like catching a falling knife most days

iron_condor34

I never look at a MA. How's ADBE vol doing should be the main concern, really.

drazayn99

God willing I live long enough to see dogshit ADBE and ORCL go to zero.

CMDR_Shepard96

Lol ADBE double downgraded and dumped.

CMDR_Shepard96

Sooo, ADBE green day when exactly?...

itsalwayscalls

This place is going to shit. ADBE is on the board.

Glittering_Dig3798

It's a little surprising that it took AI for ADBE to get some actual competition. They're a wretched company with sus business practices and I'm not just talking about how they normalized removing perpetual ownership of software. That was bound to happen but they take it to an extreme while they just enshitify their products. Preferred the last version? Too bad, now give me more money

BagholderForLyfe

ADBE puts seem too obvious in light of AI's ability to easily reverse engineer binaries.

Glittering_Dig3798

ADBE is most at risk of all the big saas names.

ItsyBitsySPYderman

So Ai reversed engineered all that Adobe software. Prolly buy some ADBE puts and other busines to client companies thats only product is software. Software As A Service may be dead in a couple years.

PaperHandsTheDip

ADBE puts? Some hackers using claude to make free versions of all their shit.

GregGirthman

ADBE did a little befkre AI and adjacents like FIG.

GregGirthman

Puts of ASTS, they lost their moat. Puts on ADBE, their products getting cloned.

Agreeable-Heron834

ie basically setting the floor at \~295, so unless ADBE really outperforms the AI moat narrative and climbs above that by Dec‑2027 you’re staring at a massive theta loss. the 250‑strike seems a stretch from today’s price, so the implied vol has to justify the premium you paid; if it doesn’t spike there’s a risk of a wipe‑out if the stock stays flat or falls. keep an eye on future volatility events and the burn‑rate of the LEAPS, and don’t get lulled by the hype around the new AI tools.

EdmontonLAD

Hmm, I think I might buy some ADBE puts on the news of the vibecoded Adobe suite release for free.

AbiesHot7081

First thing I thought when I saw "ADBE calls"

Antiwhippy

I used to, I don’t anymore because my company pays for it. And yeah my studio isn’t going to switch to this next week, but we’re talking about the LITERAL first days of this, not even the first WEEK. ADBE needs to find a new moat and value add

thenuttyhazlenut

Cloned software? That software is barely usable lol. And ADBE makes most of their money from enterprise contracts. Enterprise clients will not use cheap/free clone software and upload their proprietary content into it. OP clearly knows little about the industry and/or is a kiddo.

EvenCryptographer649

Bots shills supporting ADBE? Now I have seen everything. And their defense is as close to comical as you can get. ADBE needs to colab to enterprise with gemini like yesterday if it wants to survive. Not buying the old election harris bots to post nonsense.

miagill8

Why ADBE not SONY?

Fit-Argument854

Bought ADBE at $292 💀 Am I gonna make it out by the end of the year?

gigglychaddy

It’s crazy how ADBE has both long and short bag holders

Altruistic-Swing-224

Good time to buy some ADBE shares.

WendyDumpsterFire

Common LULU NKE MCD PEP INTU ADBE FISV

PigletBaseball

Ah another vibe coder who can only see the shiny bits. On the surface it looks great because afterall the model said it's "bug free and 100% working!" but if you actually understand the original software and required functionality, it is far from the case. Every single ADBE short post here all have fallen for the same trap. You aren't a professional designer. You don't understand the workflow. You see a copy and think it's a replacement when you have no idea. MMs thank you for your free money.

gizamo

Right, but I expect Adobe's legal team will cause hiccups for your position. Even if ArtCraft claims a clean-room build, Adobe can and historically has aggressively defended its intellectual property. They could send a cease-and-desist letter, pressure GitHub to take down repositories, or initiate a civil lawsuit claiming infringement or unfair competition. Those claims probably have merit, and a case would likely take months. More important, even the smell of such a suit brewing is enough to tank your puts. Still, I'm rooting for you and for ArtCraft. Personally, I'm waiting until after a suit is filed, and ADBE gets a pump from it. I expect they'll lose such a lawsuit, and that will cause a massive decline and it will help spur an exit from corporate America. Hopefully, you can get some gains here to ride that rollercoaster too. Cheers.

gizamo

I believe you wrote that yourself because AIstend to actually understand the law and previous court cases. Pretending that the US doesn't have precedent for cloned software is ignorant at best or worse, intentionally deceitful. As long as the clone stays away from patented features, it'll be fine, but that's easier said than done, and it will limit the cloning and parity. Adobe will still ultimately lose this battle, and I think this app cloning issue will spread throughout the overpriced software world. So, plenty of things to short once this concept actually grabs hold. It's just risky gambling on the first one, especially while it's so entrenched with companies and already at such a low PE with decent profits remaining. I think you're mostly correct, but I also think you're early for a true ADBE crash.

bubblegum-rose

“Guys I just used Claude to vibecode this machine that fucks my wife for me, I’m telling you Zuckerberg and Tim Apple are SHAKING IN THEIR BOOTS!!! They’re NEVER going to do better than this!!!” Just bought calls on ADBE, thank you for this post

1M-to-Zero

What do you think about ADBE

1M-to-Zero

What do you think ADBE play??

TomatoSpecialist6879

It's already broad enough, right now people are just coping that corporate won't switch and that means it won't affect ADBE's bottom line revenue. You have to understand prosumers and corporate won't give a shit unless someone can convince the higher ups that "Yes it is worth the switch", otherwise this will only kill the consumer side(which is sizable but won't end the business)

TomatoSpecialist6879

You don't need a ChatGPT writeup to know ADBE is cooked lmao, it just won't crash simply because you own puts

Mammoth_Control_364

ADBE has been cooked for two years. Thanks for just finding out lol.

SnortingElk

> 3k down in one day lmao true degeneracy Down even more today likely.. ADBE up to $241 now Those contracts are likely to be cooked before Adobe, lol

my_garagegym_name

Don't forget WMT and ADBE. 2000s are back!

prana_fish

$ADBE too. The premier safe-from-AI plays.

prana_fish

Ah yes. $ADBE. The premier, totally not a shitco, jacking up on complete fundamentals. Full port this dumb bitch.

Alwaysfavoriteasian

How are my ADBE calls doing?

halcyonandon

Adobe is actively launching AI assisted workflows across the entire creative suite and you are playing options at a $150 strike for March!? Those will definitely expire worthless even if you are incredibly bearish on the company. Every single intrinsic value model you can run has ADBE undervalued… by a lot

traderbusto

everything red but that ADBE some schmuck spent hours on bearish DD about

Whipitreelgud

The core issue with ADBE is their services have been replicated by freeware or AI. Combine loss of unique services with their aggressive subscription pricing that alienated any brand loyalty they had with their consumers and you have a bonfire. They will have a little stickiness with corporate customers who don’t want freeware on their desktop footprint. This company is going the way Wang.

Limp-Advantage-1663

At the speed ADBE moves at pivoting is not possible. If what OP is saying is true, and companies are ok with using open source photoshop, ADBE is mega fucked

Schwimmbo

This is what I have repeated endlessly in other software and ADBE threads. People who genuinely believe companies will replace the embedded software which offers security and enterprise grade support because Steve vibe coded something in the basement... They simply are students in their dorm rooms frustrated about their 4 shares which are down 25% who have never worked in a real company before.

appearstobeidiot

ADBE could have pivoted when Canva knocked the door down.

Deto

Isn't it also, just, that even at $70/mo, that's just really peanuts compared to a person's salary. Like why would you use some vibe-coded alternative if you are a serious professional? Now hobbyists and university students - they'll go with something else. But how much of ADBE's revenue comes from that?

Alwaysfavoriteasian

Sold PUT on ADBE, 1/15/27... $320. 1-10 how fucked am I?

abandoned_idol

You have convinced me OP. I am going to build a huge position in ADBE today. I just have to figure out which stocks I'll sell in order to do that.

banditcleaner2

For long puts to pay, the stock doesn't have to go to zero, and it doesn't even have to drop fast. It just has to drop faster then the market is currently expecting right now when you buy the puts, to make money. Look at 09/2027 puts. $230 put which is basically ATM right now is selling for $34. That means you need the stock to go below $195 at some point up until 09/2027 to profit. ADBE is down 33% YoY right now, if the slide continues at that exact same pace you are looking at about a 117% profit. If it accelerates then you're making more.

ashjohnr

How are these already down 25%? 💀 ADBE is still down 2% today.

TheRealRefuro

I'm actually totally with you here. I just opened up a very large short position last night. In the last week, the decomp field with AI just opened up broadly. ADBE is a SaaS company that relies on subscriptions. People have within hours now decompiled their entire suite and made it open sourcem. It's basically 1:1 and any new updates can be decomp'd within hours. It may take a few months, but their moat is dying. And it's not just ADBE, it's any SaaS without hardware or businesses intertwined such as Salesforce, so I'm in with you. Check out Photon studio if you want to see for yourself

DragonFuelTanker

Yeah this is not the price to short ADBE. I’m long at a 197 cost basis.

Stitch426

Too low of strike and not enough time. 52 week low is $190. In June they beat expectations, which shows the company still has the customers to surprise to the upside. Lowest analyst rating on Adobe’s Finviz is BofA at $190. They are below 20, 50, and 200 SMA and broke down below their channel. Looks like they have a gap below to fill and gaps above to fill. The gap below isn’t too far from current price, and gaps above are around $275. I think there is going to be a call back to more realistic looking graphics, pictures, advertisements, etc. AI slop is not a real sales driver. Sure, it can cut costs… but it can also open the door for lawsuits with false advertisement, misrepresentation, or having errors that aren’t factual. https://finviz.com/stock?t=ADBE&p=d

craigslisp

i remember getting smoked trying to go long $ADBE in 2024 when the thesis behind this due diligence began gaining steam. The stock was around $500 then, so I think you jump in here with the right idea, but late. So, tentative yes but have caution/hedge.

NerdSlamPo

I wish I bought ADBE back in July tbh. But CRM really has been the worst. down $700 today, $2k overall. It'll go back up at some point, but for now its wrecking my investment port

Ambitious_Snow840

You don't have the third horseman of RDDT falling knives, ADBE?

pewpewpewmoon

because if you see the code you'll understand how ADBE survives AI It isn't even feature parity yet, much less the questionable architecture choices I won't link it, but search for a gh user called storytold

pineapplekiwipen

it doesn't many software companies could survive AI at least in the short term but ADBE is probably not one of them

Vivid-Rip5227

Short ADBE?

Vivid-Rip5227

Surely with how everyone is creating their own photoshop and premiere pro, short ADBE?

DigitalKaiju2919

30% RDDT and 28% ADBE with the rest being cash.

Rameist2

ADBE, MSFT, RDDT 20% up in the next Fee weeks or calls in rope.

Flimsy_Sort9128

going all in ADBE at 8x forward PE lol

WendyDumpsterFire

LULU NKE MCD PEP FICO INTU ADBE etc

CMDR_Shepard96

Sigh. ADBE once again, ruining me. A month straight of dumping, when does it end. AVGO isn't much better.. ofc I pick the worst chip stock

CMDR_Shepard96

Which stock will dump more tomorrow, AVGO or ADBE.

CMDR_Shepard96

Praying for my ADBE & AVGO positions 😮‍💨 why am I so bad at this

CMDR_Shepard96

I think AVGO takes the cake for biggest POS. Maybe competing with my ADBE position

CMDR_Shepard96

47-14k in September. Red every day for a month straight. ADBE, CRM, INTU, AVGO.

CMDR_Shepard96

ADBE I really fucking hate you FYI