Reddit Posts
Wall Street hunts next casualty from AI threat to white-collar work
IREN Play and why it has more room to run
2007 Round Two - Potentially the worst financial meltdown this country has ever experienced is looming
Offices Around America Hit a New Vacancy Record
Why are commercial real estate stocks still doing fine?
SF commercial real estate: Office vacancy 28% (CBRE). Rents have fallen 15% (JLL)
Puts on the Builders-The Triangle of Death Theory
Broker Dealers & Mutual Funds/ETFs Have A LOT of GME Securities Lending Counterparty Exposure - Let's Explore Some Numbers
Sports betting stocks are called out by CBRE for attractive valuation - DKNG
$INKA - Data Intelligence Firm Near in Talks With KludeIn SPAC
$CBAH - Altus Power Merging With SPAC Created by CBRE in $1.58 Billion Deal
Why I think CLF is a STEEL! Check out these FundaMETALS!
CBRE is up 50% in 6 months. Commercial Real Estate Surging in Pandemic because...
Mentions
I mean you pointed out the most important factors at your examples section. Real estate is a bit different compared to other sectors in the sense that each asset is unique and it both requires a bit more in-depth look at the story itself rather than ratios only. E.g. You could look at one office asset at one company having 2% vacancy ratio and another office in the same district 3 streets away having 8% with lower rents, why? Is it worse lease management that could be improved, or is because the better office is just superior? I’ve seen many mismanaged real estate portfolios. My message is here is that first you need to understand the story itself, but in real estate it’s far less homogeneous and you’ll never have full certainty. In general I look for WAULTs, balance sheet, dividends, management, prime market yields/yields for the specific assets, vacancies, what is the rental fee structure in general, etc. Also CBRE/JLL/etc. publish very good research materials on each segment for most markets for free. Also I like to look at what yields are the assets kept in their books (whether it is in-line with market trends- conservative or aggressive , is there room for further compression etc), for valuation FFO yield, P/NAV, P/B , dividend yield are fairly good.
CBRE🟢 WFC 🟢 RSG🟢 ABT 🟢 CTAS🟢 IR🟢 MDT🟢 SSNC🟢. Munch munch munch 🦧🍿
Took starters in HURN, XYL, CBRE
I know we live in the upside down, but 706 P/E for CBRE?!? Puts on Cerebras. No way this hype holds.
# Real Estate (3 stocks)Equal-weight: +4.97% |Ticker|Name|Dec 22, 2025|Apr 28, 2026|% Change|JPM Target| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |**CBRE**|CBRE Group, Inc|$164.06|$146.22|\-10.87%|$196.00| |**DLR**|Digital Realty Trust|$152.47|$196.34|\+28.77%|$210.00| |**TRTX**|TPG RE Finance Trust|$8.70|$8.44|\-2.99%|$10.50| |**Category Average**|—|—|**+4.97%**|—|
# Real Estate (3 stocks)Equal-weight: +4.97% |Ticker|Name|Dec 22, 2025|Apr 28, 2026|% Change|JPM Target| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |**CBRE**|CBRE Group, Inc|$164.06|$146.22|\-10.87%|$196.00| |**DLR**|Digital Realty Trust|$152.47|$196.34|\+28.77%|$210.00| |**TRTX**|TPG RE Finance Trust|$8.70|$8.44|\-2.99%|$10.50| |**Category Average**|—|—|**+4.97%**|—|
# Financials |**Ticker**|**Dec 22, 2025 Price**|**Apr 28, 2026 Price**|**% Change**| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |**ALL**|$175.40|$198.20|\+13.00%| |**CBRE**|$128.40|$146.83|\+14.35%| |**SCHW**|$99.91|$88.50|\-11.42%| |**C**|$58.40|$65.20|\+11.64%| |**GL**|$112.30|$125.40|\+11.67%| |**TRTX**|$10.20|$12.15|\+19.12%| |**VLY**|$9.40|$10.25|\+9.04%| |**Category Average**|||**+9.63%**|
It’s 50% plus on just shares. I didn’t lose a huge amount but still it’s dumb saying this. Intuit, CBRE etc are strong companies.
lol CBRE violated for the 2nd day in a row. Down 18% in 2 two days. This sell off is getting out of hand
Bought the DIP on CBRE and caught the knife. First batch of shares at $149 and kept buying at $148/$135/$132. 🫣
All i wanna say us fuck CBRE
Commercial real estate (JLL, CBRE, and CWK) in the toilet today ahead of JLL and CBRE earnings tomorrow. Seems to be primarily based on the zillow outlook.
CBRE the only thing green in my portfolio
CBRE just quietly pumping. Real estate data centers stock are going to be the next big thing
CBRE, big 4 of real estate. A bunch of facilitates, data centers and every company is moving to TX
CBRE, big 4 of real estate. A bunch of facilitaties, data centers and every company is moving to TX
CBRE is about to hit $164
CBRE just going under everyones noses 🤭
Buy real estate stocks like CBRE. Cough cough data centers
CBRE is the only stock you need
Yes CBRE keep going under everyones noses 😮💨
Oh man I used to work for Cyrus one before they were taken over by JLL. JLL then tried to bounce out of the purchase because the buildings were held together by duct tape and bubble gum. CBRE the previous company that took care of the data centre buildings were pocketing as much as possible while doing the least amount possible to maintain them. A quote that was used after the purchase was “it’s a 5 year old building that’s 7 years behind on maintenance “
I work at Amazon so planning on keeping the RSU's for long period. Live in Poland, so the WIG20 index which is and ETF of top 20 companies is doing quite well. Real Estate companies like CBRE are on my watchlist and Walmart is doing well in my portfolio.
So are we shorting CBRE, JLL, CWK, SLG, and VNO?
Wait till you meet the private equity guys from Goldman or brokers from CBRE need two baggies and a Zyn
Yeah those are good. Also a lot of these places the management and daily ops of the data centers critical facilities are contracted out. CBRE and JLL are two I know of off the top of my head at the moment who works with these companies. Switch keeps everything internal.
To get bullish with IREN, all one has to do is take a view on monetization of energy & land portfolio. Time to power is one of the most important pieces of the story. If the hyperscalars have 3 years to get to GW scale they can build their own energy. Oracle searching for 5 1GW+ sites ready in early 2026 - who else has this? CBRE new update yesterday shows data center rents are very strong Mining Business ~650M, 550M, 450M, 300M If bitcoin does well or network difficulty stays constrained this can be much higher. If AI takes as much energy as people estimate, mining will only be done in markets with extreme power oversupply Cumulative cash flows = 2B ($9 per share undiscounted) though all of this will be reinvested Horizon 1 & 2 125M EBITDA ($1.25M/MW) - valued at $12M/MW (100 MW IT load, 150MW gross) = 1.2B value ($5.5/shr) Cloud Service 30M EBITDA * 8x = ~$1/shr value IREN has 47MW with redundancy, great latency in Canada ready for conversion. If someone is willing to sign 2-4 year leases they will get GPU financing. Assume they do convert it, 1B of financing, lease for $3/hr (cheap, CRWV rents for $8.5) over whole 3-year chip life, 90% utilization (much higher now) - 3-4% of rev energy cost = 190M EBT * 10 = 1.9B value ($8.5/shr) Debt 820M convertible notes at 3.25% interest rate (27M yearly) = -3.6$/shr Corporate Overhead 150M * 10 = 1.5B = -$6.5/shr - currently subtracted from bitcoin cash flows but will double count for conservatism and dilution risk Sweetwater 1.4GW April 26 Sweetwater 600MW Mid 27 Bitcoin Mining Childress 600MW Remaining Bitcoin Canada 110MW Pipeline 1GW (2GW+ but assume they only get one) Estimated Present Value = $1M/MW = 3.7B = $16/shr Potential Value if Monetized in a Time-To-Power Advantage Based on Precedent Transactions = $6M-12M/MW = 22.25B to 44.5B = $98-$196/shr If some of these were used for cloud, value creation would be higher, so no use distinguishing Horizon illustrates the value capture clearly, costs 350M yet will deliver 60M-75M EBITDA valued at 15-20x, or 900M-1.5B, thus captures 7.3M-20M/MW in value. Even at 750k/MW on 1.92M/MW data center revenue ($160/kw/mo 2024 avg. rent, Cushman & Wakefield) you get valued at 15M/MW on a 7M cost, creating 8M/MW of value. At extremely low multiple for data center of 15 x 750k/MW = 11.25M/MW, capturing 4.25M/MW or 16B across the portfolio = $70/shr What initially gave me conviction - comparing 3.5 cents / kwh vs 6 cents for natural gas, >10 cents for nuclear, saves 220-570k/MW/yr. Capitalizing that along with other costs at 15x gives 3.3M-8.5M/MW value from energy savings alone. Then potentially couple M/MW from time savings, latency advantage, land value, power infrastructure, grid connected secured energy SOP Target = $21/shr Mining Cash Flows $9 Current Infra Value $16 Horizon I & II $5.5 Cloud $1 Corporate Overhead ($6) Debt ($3.5) Horizon II Funding ($1) Bull Case SOP = $84-$210/shr Potential Cloud $8.5 Potential AI DC $70-$98-$196 Risks - AI slowdown, data center oversupply, bitcoin crashes >40%
To get bullish with IREN, all one has to do is take a view on monetization of energy & land portfolio. Time to power is one of the most important pieces of the story. If the hyperscalars have 3 years to get to GW scale they can build their own energy. Oracle searching for 5 1GW+ sites ready in early 2026 - who else has this? CBRE new update yesterday shows data center rents are very strong Mining Business ~650M, 550M, 450M, 300M If bitcoin does well or network difficulty stays constrained this can be much higher. If AI takes as much energy as people estimate, mining will only be done in markets with extreme power oversupply Cumulative cash flows = 2B ($9 per share undiscounted) though all of this will be reinvested Horizon 1 & 2 125M EBITDA ($1.25M/MW) - valued at $12M/MW (100 MW IT load, 150MW gross) = 1.2B value ($5.5/shr) Cloud Service 30M EBITDA * 8x = ~$1/shr value IREN has 47MW with redundancy, great latency in Canada ready for conversion. If someone is willing to sign 2-4 year leases they will get GPU financing. Assume they do convert it, 1B of financing, lease for $3/hr (cheap, CRWV rents for $8.5) over whole 3-year chip life, 90% utilization (much higher now) - 3-4% of rev energy cost = 190M EBT * 10 = 1.9B value ($8.5/shr) Debt 820M convertible notes at 3.25% interest rate (27M yearly) = -3.6$/shr Corporate Overhead 150M * 10 = 1.5B = -$6.5/shr - currently subtracted from bitcoin cash flows but will double count for conservatism and dilution risk Sweetwater 1.4GW April 26 Sweetwater 600MW Mid 27 Bitcoin Mining Childress 600MW Remaining Bitcoin Canada 110MW Pipeline 1GW (2GW+ but assume they only get one) Estimated Present Value = $1M/MW = 3.7B = $16/shr Potential Value if Monetized in a Time-To-Power Advantage Based on Precedent Transactions = $6M-12M/MW = 22.25B to 44.5B = $98-$196/shr If some of these were used for cloud, value creation would be higher, so no use distinguishing Horizon illustrates the value capture clearly, costs 350M yet will deliver 60M-75M EBITDA valued at 15-20x, or 900M-1.5B, thus captures 7.3M-20M/MW in value. Even at 750k/MW on 1.92M/MW data center revenue ($160/kw/mo 2024 avg. rent, Cushman & Wakefield) you get valued at 15M/MW on a 7M cost, creating 8M/MW of value. At extremely low multiple for data center of 15 x 750k/MW = 11.25M/MW, capturing 4.25M/MW or 16B across the portfolio = $70/shr What initially gave me conviction - comparing 3.5 cents / kwh vs 6 cents for natural gas, >10 cents for nuclear, saves 220-570k/MW/yr. Capitalizing that along with other costs at 15x gives 3.3M-8.5M/MW value from energy savings alone. Then potentially couple M/MW from time savings, latency advantage, land value, power infrastructure, grid connected secured energy SOP Target = $21/shr Mining Cash Flows $9 Current Infra Value $16 Horizon I & II $5.5 Cloud $1 Corporate Overhead ($6) Debt ($3.5) Horizon II Funding ($1) Bull Case SOP = $84-$210/shr Potential Cloud $8.5 Potential AI DC $70-$98-$196 Risks - AI slowdown, data center oversupply, bitcoin crashes >40%
u/Old_Government3718 >What about banks being super under on commercial real estate? Can this cause a crash? We're at the inflection point in CRE, people have accepted reality and the world can move on: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/02/office-space-net-reduction.html >“This net reduction – albeit slight – of office space across major markets likely will contribute to lowering the vacancy rate in the quarters ahead, which would benefit building owners,” said Mike Watts, CBRE Americas president of investor leasing.
If y’all want a medium term play, look at CBRE. You are welcome
Probably the last place to ask, but anyone here have deets on CBRE’s debt schedule? Wondering if they will take a hit before earnings.
Why would President Trump get rid of his favorite guy? This is all an act between the two because those two got together and this is what they did for the billionaire buddies and you got screwed large hedge funds and real estate investment corporations (REITs) borrowed at historically low rates in 2019 and used that capital to buy up real estate and other assets. This access to cheap money allowed them to scale up acquisitions and benefit from rising property values, often outcompeting individual buyers. Commercial real estate investment sales in the U.S. reached over $560 billion in 2019, with firms like CBRE leading the activity and reporting a 19% increase in investment sales volume compared to 2018. Major investment funds and REITs, such as Ares, raised billions in new capital and increased their real estate holdings during this period. These institutional buyers could indeed undercut local sellers if they chose to liquidate quickly, which can put downward pressure on neighborhood home prices. The profits and market power gained by these large players were driven by their ability to borrow cheaply and deploy capital at scale—advantages not available to the average homebuyer or small investor. This dynamic has contributed to concerns about housing affordability, asset inflation, and the outsized influence of institutional investors in real estate markets.
Given the 5x/week RTO plague sweeping the nation, I threw some smaller amounts at CBRE and CIGI (the #1 and #3 largest corporate real estate companies in the US). They’re boring but seem stable with good room to climb
Poor and commercial real estate sales do not go together. Google CBRE
CBRE up 85% in a year, Every fuckin stock I look at is like this. I can't buy this shit at these prices!
What about the other ones that are planned now? Read some CBRE marketing, tell me then.
CBRE would benefit, sales gets quick commissions, property management gets the cream. Government and banks / REO's write the checks.
Too bad they didn't mention the rampant fraud at the "big five" commercial appraisal firms including CBRE, Cushman and Wakefield, Newmark, Colliers and BBG. Ultimately, appraisers are supposed to prevent this kind of fraud, but the market is controlled by 5 companies. Appraisers who want to eat have to go along with the fraud. This is going to be worse than 1991 and FIRREA.
This has been obvious for years, but here's the issue: you don't know when it is gonna crack until someone tries to sell a skyscraper and it goes for 10 million instead of 500 million. This is most likely to happen when the mortgage-holders just walk away, allowing their collateral to be seized and sold by the bank rather than waste money paying their mortgage. Maybe this happens soon, when Trump tries to sell a tower or two to pay his bills. Maybe they kite it down the road for years. The play is to figure out which banks have the most commercial real estate exposure (CBRE, for example, has tons) and buy puts that stretch out as far as you can. The problem is that you're fucked, they're not gonna collapse until after your puts expire, and also you're fucked because the government can see this coming and will just give them free money and you'll lose and they'll give themselves big bonuses. The real play is to just avoid this field entirely.
>If $1.2 billion is a fair valuation, then $15 a share would be a fair stock price I'm talking about enterprise value, not about market cap. Current enterprise value is $1.34b with a market cap of $970m >$700 million worth of Total liabilities, including the debt on those assets Right. They take on debt to build the project. Then they pay back the debt to take on more debt to build more projects. That's how construction business works. It's basically an endless debt snowball. Based on HVS and CBRE valuation reports, they valued murano at \~$2.1 billion (enterprise value, not market cap). That'd be around \~$15-16 per share I believe. CBRE provides valuation and consulting services for real estate, I trust them. The current earnings report doesn't matter that much, because of seasonality and because baja industrial park and grand island cancun i aren't operational yet. The main question is whether they are able to repay the debt or not.
One of JLL or CBRE or colliers or cushman will probably go Lehman
I worked for a NP last year that honored a CBRE mid-level exec. Both corporate and employees were just throwing cash at the fundraiser. They didn't seem too concerned about tightening their belts.
Executives and employees of every big public company sell at least enough shares to cover taxes when they exercise once give stock options. They are **advised** to do so, and not doing so can be at their peril. Somebody beat you on the “warning” about CBRE here at least a couple weeks ago. Meh. I’d be more concerned about the commercial real-estate market, don’t ya think?
You already tried to post this shit. do you have puts on CBRE?
I work in the datacenter industry and have a good general knowledge of all of the companies involved in the space- investment, land, design & build, collocation, real estate, consulting, vendors/service providers including cooling, servers, racks, water treatment, power busway systems, physical security, cabling, backup generators, batteries, etc. Liquid immersion cooling has been talked about for a long time and is viable but expensive to implement. But now with more and more push for sustainability we may see further adoption. Vertiv is a solid company and easy to work with. They seem organized. I’ll list off a bunch of random companies that are publicly traded you can just look them up- Colocation- equinix, Keppel, digital realty, adaniconnex(part of adani enterprises) EQT recently purchased EdgeConneX also Vendors: Corning, vertiv, Schneider Electric, commscope(price way down), Panduit, Legrand, Eaton Consultant: CBRE, JLL
New to this sub but not to investing. Ive work in commercial banking in So Cal the last 20 years. I’m seeing an impending explosion to the CRE market in the next 6-12 months. I’ve been saying this the last 12 months but delinquencies are at an all time high and rates aren’t going down any time soon …. I feel the bigger CRE companies such as CBRE will take a huge hit in the coming months. The CRE market will drop like the residential market from 2008.
Ticker CBRE. They own/manage the most commercial real estate in the US.
DOUBT. I see those CBRE plants in Jersey pumping out hot gas--why do they even have losses??
CBRE leases tons of warehouses to Amazon. CBRE has required metering at most sub panels to better understand energy usage at each type of Amazon facility. Also they have contractors reenforce bar joist to allow for solar panels in the future. Electrical systems in their warehouses are also being install with future Solar installs taken into consideration.
It's all PR. CBRE is a cesspool. The stock could 5x and I would still never buy it on principle. Too much opportunity in the market to bother with a company that is below average in every way.
CBRE manages properties. How on earth can they call themselves green? They don’t use bad cleaning chemicals on their tile floors or what!? lol
you realize you are comparing a trillion plus dollar market cap with a 130 billion market cap...really doesn't make logical sense to put the two companies on the same footing. The only reason Jensen wanted ARM is because he knows they have the talent to compete against Nvidia if they started manufacturing thier own chips. Particularly with Softbank backing them. (Son already announced he is looking to start something like that) Jensen played his hand at an acquisition but that failed for a variety of reasons outside of his control. As for short term price...yeah probably will be some SOftbank profit taking...but at the same time shares will flow into the market and as such options will be less pricy, the Delta will be volitile and options traders will have a hey day. Softbank already mentioned they want to use much of the stock as collateral for their own options trading. So there is that. After looking into the datacenter expenditures from a commercial real estate firm CBRE (they have a new report on datacenter market inventory, build out and expansion for 2024 out, very detailed and good read.) I am still leaning on holding my stock.
I have family working in commercial real estate. Business has slowed dramatically obviously but companies like Avalonbay and CBRE are here to stay.
OT: If there’s vaccine for commercial real estate, too bad San Diego didn’t know! https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/thread/2023/101-ash-street-full-coverage (Latest in a long-running saga) As far as CBRE, from my minimal inside experience (I helped develop an app for a CBRE company that does field service) it’s an extraordinarily well-run company. Which of course means squat for market valuation lol.
Thoughts on $CBRE? Largest CRE company out there and it has a nice predictable 2 year trend.
Would love to hear anyone's thoughts on $JLL puts for their earnigns this week. The pressure cooker that is the CRE industry seems primed to explode. The amount of CRE loans maturing in 2024 is projected to be >30% greater than in 2023 as many were extended with the hope the industry would recover. Add to this the likelihood of a high rate environment through at least the next two quarters.... I would love to hear anyone's thoughts on $JLL puts for their earningsboom. CBRE (JLL comp) predicts that office vacancy will **peak** in 2024 at 20%, and more than 50% of their customers plan to further reduce office space in the next 12 months. You might think, oh, well JLL is diversified away from just CRE ownership. They also do transactions and construction management. Bad news: CBRE projects that # of completed construction projects in 2024 will be **the lowest annual amount since 2014**. JLL has missed expectations the past two quarters and tried to put a rosy spin on it by saying their "resilient business lines" like "Work Dynamics" and "Property Management" did well. In my opinion, this is picking up pennies in front of a steam roller. I think the reckoning of maturing CRE loans and continued high rates can't be ignored in their guidance. Might write a longer dd.
> CBRE "Pumping" is a very strong word to describe is YoY return. I would need to see the fund's holdings in order to really comment on why it's seeing a positive YoY return. If I had to take a guess, they've diversified their CRE which means office space isn't the only thing they have. Not all sectors of CRE are in bad positions.
Why is a company like CBRE still pumping? Just too big to fail at this point?
Are fears of CRE overblown? Here's what the largest CRE service provider, CBRE, has to say: “We are cautiously optimistic that the worst is over for office leasing, particularly for Class A properties where we generate approximately two-thirds of our leasing revenue,” CBRE said in a call with analysts Thursday morning. “We think it is bottomed out,” said Robert Sulentic, chief executive officer. “There’s just a clear amount of pressure from companies to get their people back into the office. You’re going to see the future be better than the current circumstances have been for a variety of reasons.” If somehow office properties aren't doing so bad, what exactly is wrong with other parts of Commercial real estate? The high interest rates are only propped up by lagging high shelter inflation which gets passed through to multifamily CRE, if inflation was caused by re-opening boom, the increased volume gets passed through retail and hotel CRE.
>Edit: CBRE had their earnings report today, and they killed expectations. Beat EPS by 16.71% and Revenue by 6%. This likely caused the rest of CRE to pull up too. This is probably it. CBRE really sparked the optimism amongst the CRE sector: [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cbre-optimism-sparks-rally-embattled-231618214.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cbre-optimism-sparks-rally-embattled-231618214.html) I'd buy CWK puts ASAP.
* Report calms some worries of contagion from wobbly loans * Optimism could have positive read-through to regional banks >“We think it is bottomed out,” said Robert Sulentic, chief executive officer. “There’s just a clear amount of pressure from companies to get their people back into the office. You’re going to see the future be better than the current circumstances have been for a variety of reasons.” [CBRE ‘Optimism’ Sparks Rally in Embattled Commercial Real Estate](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-15/cbre-optimism-sparks-rally-in-embattled-commercial-real-estate)
It looks like CBRE reported earnings before the bell. Looking at the chart there were probably a lot of shorts that probably set a stop at around the 91-92 dollar level expecting a bad report. When earnings surprised to the upside, it triggered a lot of buying to happen as those shorts were getting stopped out of their trades. This caused a cascade of excess buying, which can push price up quite a bit. Whenever you see price rip on an ER beat, it's not just people feverishly buying to go long. It's also people that were short desperately trying to close their trades as fast as possible. If you're short, you close your trade by buying to close. JLL is probably the same story - stocks in the same sector have a contagion effect during earnings season (e.g. good ER for AMD winds up being good for other semis too)
CBRE reported earnings today and crushed their earnings expectations
CBRE is up bigly. VNO would be a good play for anti office, and anti NYC as well, a small bonus.
Yeah I have my eyes on CBRE, BXP, WPC, and O puts. Any suggestions of what your looking at? - "Casually dips Wendy's nugget into BBQ sauce"....
Puts on CBRE. Commercial real estate is 💩
CBRE hurtin, but that doesn’t mean they can’t scrape the couches for change to report this Q.
I work in CRE and you value a company for different reasons. Reits need values for books, but besides that they also want a value for sale, for tax write offs, for lenders, and a whole host of other reasons Externally done valuations are great for lenders, and books but usually the asset portfolio manager will have an ongoing relationship with a valuation team. Example would be if CBRE did valuations this quarter and they gave a valuable not favourable to the client be it for tax or for the books so you think they’re going back to CBRE. Nothing is valued objectively including stocks. There are “objective” ways to look at it but there’s ways to fudge the objective numbers. Tennant improvements for office right now is an easy example. It’s below the NOI as an adjustment so landlords would increase tenant improvements so they can steadily increase rent every year. Right now in strong markets the TIs are reaching 2-3 years worth of rent. So you might see the market as having strong rent growth but that’s all inflated
Shorting CBRE might be the easiest money out there.
# [Rising Interest Rates Curb Q3 Global Investment Activity](https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/rising-interest-rates-curb-q3-global-investment-activity) * Global commercial real estate investment volume fell by 51% year-over-year in Q3 2023 to US$142 billion. Volume fell by 53% in the Americas, 54% in Europe and 30% in Asia-Pacific. * Investment totals for all major property sectors fell year-over-year in Q3. * Rising interest rates and tight credit conditions, along with expectations of slower economic growth in the U.S. and Europe, likely will further reduce commercial real estate investment activity through the first half of 2024. * CBRE forecasts that global investment volume will decrease by 44% this year before stabilizing in 2024.
It's about 15 million SF total across a few hundred locations across the entire United States. The areas where WeWork is located tend to be areas with well performing office real estate >While the overall U.S. office vacancy rate hit a 30-year-high of 18.2% in Q2, it is not indicative of the performance of most buildings. Only 10% of all U.S. office buildings account for 80% of the occupancy losses between Q1 2020 and Q4 2022, according to a recent CBRE Viewpoint. These tend to be older buildings in downtown submarkets with relatively high crime rates and few surrounding amenities. https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/most-us-office-buildings-more-than-90-percent-leased
Yeah the commentary on CRE grabbing headlines has petered out but the problem is very much still there CBRE probably going to get clocked hard
CBRE with the first leg...boom
CBRE just spoke at barclays conference and sounded bearish saying "deals are down 50% in europe and US" hard to tell how far sell off goes but either way its gonna keep moving throughout day IMO
Think of how much civil, mechanical, structural and electrical engineering will be required for implementing this tech at scale, then look at the firms out there with the capability to implement across country and help utilities capture and distribute the now “cheap energy”. Design firms like Jacobs, AECOM, Mott MacDonald, GHD, HDR etc. would be able to take this tech and actually get utilities to benefit from it, or firms like CBRE and AECOM could program manage the implementation of it. I would also caution you that if you don’t understand how it works, and it sounds too good to be true, you may want to challenge your perception of why someone is telling you this and what they may gain from it.
Not typically, but currently nationally they are. There's an index that CBRE offers that tracks this: https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/new-mortgage-payments-now-well-above-multifamily-rents There are a few other sources where you can pull the data by city, but they don't consistently update the charts.
#### I dont think Banks will get much hit. Also that phase seems to be gone. What will sure take impact is stocks like CBRE and SYSCO. Service Providers to these 'Commercial Real Estate' will for sure take a hit. I am not confident of Banks falling, especially now.
That ship has sailed somewhat but you can still buy long dated puts on CBRE and SPG
If the Fed sticks to their word, they should increase rates in June. If they don't, I think they'll be seen as untrustworthy. I don't think a pause is sufficient if they want to bring down the sticky part of inflation. ​ Its interesting though how now MMFs are paying more than inflation finally (\~5% vs 4% inflation). Frankly, its great that inflation even dropped to 4% without anything breaking, I think the 2% inflation target wasn't realistic for this year, more like for late 2024, but its their rodeo. ​ I'm bullish on tech companies and skeptical of the other companies. Im not sure tech companies should be going back to ATHs when money isn't free anymore, but the non-tech companies are definitely in for a reckoning. Non-tech is capital intensive, which is tough when money isn't free. Also CBRE sector will be crashing soon with rates being so high. ​ Personally buying VXUS and VTWO right now, but shy of VTI due to the recent run up and high P/Es...
Hrm. CBRE with the big beat and puts are on sale. I don't like them through the next few quarters and shorts are on sale so that's where I'm putting some pennies in for a little action. Fuzzy macro data again, so might move more into fixed income again, depending on rates.
This is a story of the have and have-nots. Class A office real estate will be fine. Class B and Class C will struggle. The smaller PE funds and/or banks who bought some of these CMBS or outright loaned to some of these funds with mostly Class B/Class C will struggle. These redemption gates on REITs are doing their job and preventing people from all pulling out at once and crashing CRE prices further. Average vacancy rates pre-pandemic in office were around 12%, now its closer to 15%. This was an unfolding crisis prior to 2020. I don't know if this is a GFC moment, simply because we are all talking about it. It's not a Black Swan if you see it coming and can potentially soften the blow in time. There will be pain, but bet that this will wipe out the zombie funds that would've blown up years from now anyway, and the systemically important companies (Blackstone, CBRE, etc). will survive because of their size and ability to throw their weight around and make deals. Don't bet against America because you will lose every time.
Any regards here shorting or have puts on CBRE to play the potential CRE Crisis?
I managed investments directly into healthcare REITs as part of a diversified equity REIT fund. I was the middle man generating alpha. The whole point of any managed fund is to be better than the benchmark and like I said, you can pick good stocks and weight your sectors better. VNQ is trash because it includes big investments into other Vanguard funds as well as non-REITs like CBRE and JLL.
INB4: Coomercial Real sTate fuked. People forget, or might not know that in [Sep '22 Gavin Newsom signed a state law](https://journal.firsttuesday.us/governor-newsom-opens-up-commercial-zoning-for-residential-use/86680/#:~:text=Governor%20Newsom%20signed%20two%20pieces,support%20across%20California%20labor%20unions.) opening up commercial real estate for residential development. NIMBY cities have no choice, as the location isn't re-zoned, the state just allows the construction to convert from Com to Res. There is going to be a construction boom as commercial real estate demand and costs continue to fall, and companies start to look at what to do with their vacancies. If you think CBRE is going to take a big hit in this, they could come out on the other side of the transition much stronger. During the boom and bust cycles of the Bay Area, especially in SF, some long term commercial tenants could use vacancy rates to argue to lower their lease. By converting to Residential, the owners have nearly no risk. Each tenant represents a smaller portion of their overall income from the building, versus dealing with larger commercial tenants, so if one of them tries to threaten to leave it's no big deal. In SF they will have 100 applications in the first hour. Or years long wait lists to get in. I already know of several buildings in SF that have been commercial for 70+ years that are being converted. Some of them are offsetting the low income or below market value guidelines by doing multiple buildings at once and calling it one development. Prime location is all luxury apartments and the 10% of the low income apartments that should be there are in another building entirely. It also shores up their street level commercial spaces because all those fucking people need coffee and food. The spaces have built-in customers. [This is ground-up construction, but basically what they will try and do elsewhere](https://sfplanning.org/project/trinity-plaza)
It was a Flash Call, so there wasn't a memo or executive summary released. They might release the call as a video with a summary later on, but they don't always do that. CBRE does these calls from time to time, so you should get yourself on their contact list to join. https://deal.town/cbre/reminder-to-register-flash-call-implications-of-banking-turmoil-for-commercial-real-estate-P3KYCFAY9 https://www.cbre.com/insights#sort=%40publishdate%20descending&numberOfResults=9
CBRE right now: >Most of our real estate developer clients are completely "pencils down" for 2023. Need a 6% or greater yield on cost, and they simply can't get there due to labor, financing costs, and uncertainty on cap rates. There will be a lot of completions in 2023 for things that were already in process from 2021-2022, but otherwise there is gap until at least 2024.
I'm on a CBRE "Implications of Banking Turmoil for Commercial Real Estate" webcast right now, and their research arm seems to think real estate is at peak cap rates right now.
True but CBRE has also been aggressively paying down thier debt which makes me think their getting ready for something big.
CBRE is badly exposed in the SEa and Australian markets. Hemorrhaging money atm.
So which firms would you buy puts on specifically? For instance, CBRE is a mixed portfolio and likely held up by industrial which isn't dropping.