FSAGX
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What's the point of a bond fund if the NAV still fluctuates so much? (versus owning individual bonds)
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Small correction, FSAGX has cash flow, it holds miners and distributors for precious metals, not just precious metals.
PHYS, PSLV, FSAGX. DCA weekly.
Target Date retirement funds are way too conservative imo, being too heavily invested in bonds and only adding more bonds to the mix as it gets closer to the target date. If you have the ability, you're better off putting at least half of your funds into an S&P index (FXAIX) and then a mix of other indices. Personally I like FSELX (semis) and FBGRX (blue chips) for growth and a smaller mix of funds like FSAGX (gold) and FLCOX (large cap value) for a little more diversity and defensiveness.
Over the next decade gold should do well, though for reasons that will be miserable for most. But there are growing signs of looming recession. Normally cash does better than gold when the market crashes, but gold quickly recovers. I was 80% FSAGX (gold miners) from January - October and rode it to a 100% return. Right now I'm cash until the market either crashes or stabilizes.
I was in FSAGX since January. Up over 100% when I sold 10 months later. Debt-free home-owning multimillionaire with 3 cars. I suspect I'm doing significantly better than most. Mostly by listening to Warren Buffett, Ray Dalio, and other good investors, rather than listening to the junior varsity idiots around here who *think* they're Warren Buffett.
The best proxy for gold is usually gold miner stocks. For small increase/decrease in gold price, gold miner stocks tend to increase/decrease by ~1.5x. For larger increase in gold price, that's not necessarily true. Gold is getting harder to find, more expensive to refine, so a doubling in gold prices doesn't necessarily translate into a doubling of gold miner stock prices. I should add that, while I rode FSAGX (gold miner fund) to a > 100% return since January, I suspect the "easy money" is gone, so I'm rotating to other assets like TIPS. I'd wait for a crash before piling back in.
It depends on where you work. 403b's are allowed to invest in gold funds like GLD provided your employers chooses to allow that. Mine does not. :-/ I have already written HR a letter asking them to change that policy, because it's a dumb-ass policy. I *do* have TIPS (FIPDX), and bought a bunch today. I'm 50/50 FSAGX/FIPDX now.
Until today, it was 85% FSAGX/15% FIPDX (TIPS fund) in my main retirement. The market is acting unusually odd today, even by recent standards, so I decided to de-risk, so I'm 50/50 now.
That's the same boat I'm in. I've been ~80% FSAGX since January and it was handsomely rewarded. Up ~121% YTD. Now I'd like to shift to actual gold and out of gold miner stocks, but don't have gold as an option in my 403b because my employer won't allow it.
I have the brokerage link option for the 403b. Unfortunately it can only purchase mutual funds. I bought a Fidelity gold fund FSAGX but unfortunately the expense ratio is high and these are gold miners, not like GLD. I’d like to know as well.
> So you’re telling me you avoided and then bought the lows? Yep. Read my posts from that time period. > I doubt you went back and did the counterfactual. The stocks/indexes I previously held did not return the same 40% performance as FSAGX during the same time period. Source: Have MBA from top 25 school, PhD in physics. Can math.
> How has that worked out for you in the past? Really fucking well, it turns out. I was 100% in FSAGX in December 2019 and made 40% in 6 months and dodged the COVID recession. I was also 80% FSAGX in January of this year, up 121% YTD. "You can't time the market" is a rule of thumb, not an ironclad law. It turns out you *can* time the market if you understand economic history well enough. When the yield curve de-inverts and stocks are stupidly overvalued, it's a really great time to be somewhere else.
Which ETF’s? Genuinely curious, because my mining fund FSAGX is up today.
It's possible, if you're very lucky, very smart, or very hard-working. But it isn't typical. Read Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, and Ray Dalio for a good start. I invested in FSAGX in January because I believed Trump would do exactly what he said he would do and realized what the economic consequences would be, and it's returned 108% YTD, and FSAGX was 80% of my retirement because I concentrated my bet because I like shooting fish in barrels. A good working knowledge of economic history can be can be quite valuable, as it lets you see when a good bet is coming your way, or when it isn't. If you're just Joe Average, please don't do try what I did. You'll almost certainly lose your ass. Far too many people on this sub are "Trust me bro!" investors who escaped from /r/wallstreetbets or otherwise treat investing like highbrow gambling. There's a strong survivorship bias in posts. The folks who randomly win make victory posts. You don't see posts from people who lost their ass (outside of /r/wallstreetbets, anyway).
After this insane run up,hell no. Gold funds like FSAGX are 100% gains from april dip
I've ridden FSAGX (gold miners fund) up 98% YTD. That said, I'm thinking about rotating into actual gold soon, as I suspect the risk of a market crash/correction is quickly growing. Gold tends to hover through a market crash, while gold miner stocks tend to crash in unison with them. Also, for large price movements of gold, gold miners stock often can't keep up, or lag gold. It's harder to find gold these days, takes more energy to refine, takes time to turn ore into gold, etc. which affects profits. For large prices movements, gold doubling doesn't mean gold miners double.
"It depends". For the 90% of the time when you don't have clarity, diversification is good. Easiest way is just buy an S&P 500 index, or maybe Berkshire Hathaway. But every so often a good bet comes down the road. When that happens, *concentrate* your investments, and don't diversify. "Diversification may preserve wealth, but concentration builds wealth." - Warren Buffett I invested 80% of my retirement in FSAGX back in January on the firm conviction that Trump would try to do exactly what he said he would, and it's up 98% YTD. In my investing life I've never made an easier call. Those don't happen very often, but when opportunity knocks, always open the door.
I've found that as long as you're willing to put in the effort to learn, and are dealing with smaller sums (< $1M), that outperforming the market isn't very hard. 1. Concentrate your bets when you see a good opportunity. I listened to Trump, and realized he intended to do exactly what he said he would, for better or worse. So 80% of my retirement was invested in FSAGX in early January, and it's up 86% YTD. 2. Diversify your bets when you don't have clarity, and do so simply. Buy a S&P 500 index, 10 year Treasury index, cash, etc. Doing something overly complicated will lose you money 9 times out of 10. 3. Don't be short-term greedy. Even the wisest can't see when "up" will switch to "down". Be conservative, take a win, and start looking for The Next Thing when everyone else is distracted. 4. Learn from experts, and actively avoid "experts". Warren Buffett, Ray Dalio, and others have a lot of wisdom to share. And there are others (Cramer in particular) who you should listen to, then do the exact opposite. Too many people complain about "experts" being wrong, when the problem is those people are too inexperienced to discern actual expert investors from "Trust me, Bro!" investors. 5. Use margin sparingly, and even then only in the early/middle stages of the business cycle. Margin is sky-high right now, and a lot of people will flat lose their ass when the stock market cries "enough".
I completely agree that understanding economic history and macro fundamentals is crucial. Patterns and technical setups can only get you so far if you ignore the bigger picture. It’s impressive how well you timed FSAGX. Preparation and context really make the difference.
Stop looking for "patterns" and go read a textbook on economic history. The US is facing stagflation, a debt crisis, a loss of confidence in US currency, an loss of faith in US Treasuries, a President who is determined to co-opt our central bank, a President who is determined to mismanage the economy, and the growing threat of Great Powers war. It was painfully obvious to anyone who's ever read an economic history book that gold was about to go on a major tear if Trump was elected. 80% of my liquid assets were invested in FSAGX as of early January. And FSAGX is up 77% YTD as of this morning, and while FSAGX's price won't update until 6 pm, gold is already up 1.67% this morning. I made 18% return *last month*. That wasn't luck. That was preparation. Stop looking for "patterns", numerology, or signs and portents, and go read a history book.
"Throw spaghetti at the wall" investing works when the tide is lifting all boats. It isn't lifting all boats right now. At all. In fact you can see a tsunami on the horizon if you look. FWIW, I invested in FSAGX in January, and it's up 77% year-to-date, though for reasons that are probably highly negative for the country and world. Read a good book on economic history. "Investing in US Financial History" is a good one. And read Ray Dalio's latest book on "How Countries Go Broke".
My retirement is up ~70% YTD with FSAGX (gold miner stocks). I've made my salary for the entire year, in just the last 4 weeks. But I also know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em. While no one knows exactly when a recession occurs, I was around in 2000 and 2008, and my gut feels the same way now that it did then right before the market went south.
Am I reading your comment wrong or what? You said you’re investing in “gold” but FSAGX is literally almost 100% stock equities in the form of gold mining companies which is not the same as gold commodity itself. And yes, this is literally one of the easiest years to make money INVESTING in stock lol. I’m up 76% YTD and 140% in 2024…
Been holding gold (FSAGX) since January. Up 69% YTD. And it was 80% of my retirement. Trust me, I'm laughing all the way to the bank...
FSAGX (gold miner stock) is up 69% YTD, and it was 80% of my retirement. :-D Anyone who's studied economic history knows how this is going to play out. :-(
I'm 80% gold (FSAGX), and even I wouldn't recommend physical gold. If things get bad enough, people will bypass physical gold and go straight to baked beans, whiskey, cigarettes, and 9 mm ammo.
Hey all, so I'm 33 living in the US and I wanted to get advice on my current portfolio. I'm relatively new to investing as a whole so I'm learning a lot as I go and want to avoid any obvious pit traps. I basically already have the mindset of any money I put into this whole venture is spent and gone so I'm pretty risk tolerant. I have a 401k from work with 41k in it and slap in 11% of my paycheck there along with a MMA from my bank that is at a 4.5% if I remember right with almost 4k. I currently have these investments in a Fidelity Individual account: * BBVA - 9.581 shares * FSAGX - 3.388 shares * SPMO - 1.205 shares * UTES - 1.748 shares * VGT - 0.2 shares * VOOG - 0.246 shares I'm able to invest about $300 a month which I am thinking of splitting between my investment portfolio, my newly made Roth IRA account and my MMA. I know that my investments in my Roth IRA should lean more aggressive since it's tax-free. Overall I just wanna know if this is a solid strategy or if I'm on a sinking ship and just don't know it yet.
Gold miners. Specifically I use FSAGX. It acts like "leveraged gold" in both directions, so you have to be careful. The US and to a lesser extent the world are starting to look too much like pre-1929 for my comfort. Odds are our politicians will do nothing about federal debt until it is too late. And geopolitical and US sovereign risk are rising. The dollar is a fiat currency. I suspect the debt bubble will become a crisis, the dollar will have to be inflated to prevent Great Depression 2.0, and there will be extreme pressure to re-link the dollar to gold or at least a basket of commodities in order to make the dollar a de facto hard currency again and prevent it losing its reserve status.
I'm 80% gold miners via FSAGX. YTD it's up almost 54%, so it appears that other people agree. The rest is a mix of BRK-B and cash. Gold is the most boring investment in the entire universe, so when it starts making moves of that magnitude, something is going south in Very Big Way. 80% gold allocation is probably overdoing it allocation-wise for most investors, but like Warren Buffett says, "Big opportunities come infrequently. When it's raining gold, reach for a bucket, not a thimble". I can't promise that gold/gold miners will continue to perform like that. But I suspect there are several reasons why gold will do better than average for the next several years. I wrote the reasons below down to show myself why gold would be a good investment. I can guarantee that they are worth every penny you paid for them. :-) So always think before doing. * Recession and the ZLB. The Fed rate is currently 4.3%, and the Fed on average lowers the Fed rate by 4-5% when a recesion hits. Which means that if a recession hits soon, the Fed rate will likely be at 0%, a condition economists call the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), since the Fed can't lower rates below 0% using conventional monetary policy. When the economy is at the ZLB, Treasuries have a net yield of 0%, and often negative real yield. Gold becomes more attractive relative to Treasuries when real yields are low or negative. So demand for gold increases at the ZLB, particularly when real yields are negative and inflation expectations rise. (That one piece of trivia made me 40% * (large 6-figure number) in 2020 when COVID hit) * "Wars and rumors of wars": The world appears to be entering a period of heightened geopolitical conflict. Scholars such as Graham Allison have identified a pattern - termed the Thucydides Trap - in which rising powers challenge established hegemons, often resulting in war. Historically, such power transitions have led to major wars in 12 out of 16 documented cases. WWI and WW2 serve as the most recent examples, where Britain was the existing world hegemon which Germany tried to replace, only to be succeeded by the United States. Present-day tensions (Russia -> Ukraine, India -> Pakistan, Israel -> Iran) suggest the world is heading towards greater instability. Wars have historically triggered high inflation, driven by surging government expenditures, commodity disruptions, and economic uncertainty. In anticipation of such risks, some countries build up their gold reserves. Gold serves as a hedge against currency debasement, a store of value during crises, and a potential tool to defend a nation's financial system under sanctions or wartime pressure. The US recently weaponized the dollar against Russia. China and other nations noticed, and are actively working to de-dollarize their economies. That simultaneously boosts demand for gold and reduces demand for dollars. * De-dollarization. Due to the US "militarizing" the dollar, exporting inflation to other countries via the dollar, and other negative behavior, many countries are looking to get away from the dollar. As there are no other reserve currency currently ready for that role, gold will increasingly be used. * Central banks around the world are starting to increase their gold reserves due to debt + more volatile world. The era of fiat currencies could come to an end if a debt crisis ensues or a great powers war occurs. Demand for gold looks strong going forward.
While you're celebrating the stock market reaching 0% in 5 months, I made ~38% on FSAGX in the exact same time. It takes more than 0% to excite me...
I hate gold as an investment. I doubly hate putting all my eggs in one basket. Yet... I'm currently ~80% gold (FSAGX, mostly since I work at a university and it's the closest thing to gold I can access in my 403b). Both stocks and real estate are stupidly overvalued by historical measures, and "debt sustainability" issues make bonds a riskier choice than is currently appreciated. I see a once-in-a-generation debt crisis heading this way at warp speed. Gold is a smart move, in the sense that pretty much every other major asset class looks worse. Gold is likely to perform well in a stagflationary scenario (or worse). That said, I will not hold gold a second longer than necessary. Warren Buffett has outlined all the reasons why 99% of the time it's a terrible investment. But both my brain and my gut tell me that 1% exception is heading this way quickly.
After the market popped 12% due to blatant manipulation, I noped the fk out of QQQ and rotated into precious metals (KGC & FSAGX).
Not OP but maybe you can give me similar insight. 32 years old. Long in the market for another30+ Based on my available cash this is what I’ve been doing… 583 into FZROX MONTHLY 400 into FXAIX MONTHLY 50 into FSAGX MONTHLY 50 into FTIHX MONTHLY Should I start to rebalance this?
Gold is not safe Right Now. The reason is that the credit crunch going on in the bond market will affect everything. Gold goes down as well. Check how FSAGX reacted lately.
If FSAGX dropped less than the overall market that's actually sort of a win, in a sense.
I think FSAGX only actually invest like 25 percent in the actual gold commodity and the rest is like gold related companies right?
FSAGX looks like it invests in gold producers , companies that mine or explore for gold. Investing in a company or companies that produce a commodity is not exactly the same as holding the commodity . If oil goes up in price, there may be other factors that influence oil producers , like regulations or just cost to drill that oil ect.
I'm not an investing genius but if I had to give criticism, you seem to be overweight on tech stocks. I would also ask if you have considered a small amount (maybe 10-20% of this) toward international stocks, and maybe 10% toward bonds. Not as lucrative, but it would hedge against a big tech drop. Especially given that you are investing 50% of your income, it comes down to your risk tolerance. For reference I'm similar to you - early 30s, single, but medium cost of living area and a house that's mostly paid off. I am putting closer to 25% of my income into these below bins. These are approximate values, recurring investments. - 60% total US stock market (FZROX, similar to VTI) - 10% total international stocks (FZILX) - 10% total US bonds (FXNAX) - 5% precious metal fund (FSAGX) - 5% each into small / mid cap (FSSNX / FMDGX) - 5% into real estate (FSRNX) - The last 5% is discretionary, individual stocks. Right now energy stocks seem like a good buy, maybe some defense as well. Smarter investors than me will probably be able to point out how I could improve so, so I am also open for criticism. The main thing I was going for was avoiding overlap between the funds, so I can re-balance it if needed with little fuss.
25% FSAGX 25% VOO 20% Home Equity 30% Cash + Other Investments
OIL IS HEDGE FOR INFLATION GOLD IS HEDGE FOR CURRENCY USD As for metals as hedge, on my platform these are a starting place: They’ve been printing since morning of 2/24/22 Tremendous pressure on the 10 Year TBill -FSAGX -GOLD -PSLV Risks of metals are accounting based re: physical custody etc Any investment houses with short plays (puts) on gold will most likely receive large margin calls Any investment house with plays (calls, puts) on the currencies will also feel the sting OIL -COP -ODC -XOM
I like PHYS and CEF. Those hold real metal. FSAGX is a gold mutual fund, holds gold mining stocks. FNV is a gold royalty stock.