FTC

amy33amy33

I have a bigger conspiracy, that Peter Thiel took out SVB to take out all of the small social media startups, so that when Meta gets Congress to outlaw all of Chinese Social Media (TikTok, Discord, etc), and when Elon Musk inevitably runs Twitter into the ground, Facebook has a perfect monopoly without the easy ability for the FTC to contest it, and the profitability therein.

Jrecondite

He likes a good rebuffing. FTC Chair probably getting a horsie.

VisualMod

>ELON MUSK TRIED TO MEET WITH FTC CHAIR ABOUT TWITTER, BUT WAS REBUFFED - NYT ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-30 ^15:36:08 ^EDT-0400

Affectionate-Idea690

OpenAI faces complaint to FTC that seeks investigation and suspension of ChatGPT releases - CNBC 

noneblanktrue

The FTC has entered the chat 🤣

ww_crimson

They are doing this to get deeper into the advertising business. They created privacy systems on their hardware that prevent third parties from using the device IDs for advertising without the apple users opting in. Then they started hiring people to build a DSP which is an enterprise advertising platform. Now they are building a content platform so that they can own and operate the entire advertising stack and hardware from beginning to end. It's a huge walled garden effort that will allow them to compete with Google, and in fact it's the exact thing Google did that so many people despise and is the basis for a lot of the anti trust lawsuits against Google. It's disgusting that the FTC allows this to happen

Grouchy_Fisherman763

Even if the FTC approves, $95 can still be negotiated. So can the dealings of each company. For all we know Activision will have to part ways with Call of Duty in order for this deal to meet requirements. Also, MSFT has failed to produce documents after 24 requests, it's not going as smoothly as people think. I personally think this is overvalued at what it is currently sitting at and am shorting it.

avi6274

Why isn't ATVI much nearer to $95? There market is still pricing in a significant chance of the deal not going through. The FTC has no teeth and incompetent leadership, the deal is obviously going to go through after this whole dog and pony show. Am I missing something here?

moutonbleu

FTC: “we’ll let you merge because everyone has a bike!”

Comprehensive_Bad650

Show me a better place to put my money than a US FDIC insured bank & I will go there. I was a believer in crypto but the crypto bros chose greedy pump & dump schemes over actually creating a self sustaining, transparent, & an actually decentralized system. They chose to centralize it around themselves. Chinese banking system means Xi can just take your money wherever he wants, just ask Jack Ma. No way in hell I’d ever put my money in china. Not putting money in any country with an authoritarian leaning government. Europe has chosen the too-big-to-fail route, which could become a serious problem in the future. The US tried that in 2008, there are many things wrong with it. Mainly antitrust behavior against consumers. The US decision to guarantee deposits signals to the world there there is no place safer to park your money than in a US FDIC insured bank. The decision to let SVB shareholders lose all their money now forces investors to be more diligent when investing in a bank, making the US banking oversight system even more self sustaining. And I guarantee you Lina Khan from FTC would not approve the acquisition of SVB by a too-big-to-fail bank because of antitrust issues against consumers. While I feel it was too generous, the deal to allow First Citizen Bank to buy SVB assets increases competition in US banking overall. Now we just have to make sure banks that hold too many non FDIC insured deposits pay more FDIC insurance & are put through states tests.

grimkhor

I would be careful with June 16 calls. MSFT said they will close the merger in their fiscal year which ends June 30. They also said they will proceed with the merger regardless of the FTC if CMA and EU approve. [https://www.tweaktown.com/news/89925/microsoft-prepared-to-defy-ftc-and-face-federal-merger-trial/index.html](https://www.tweaktown.com/news/89925/microsoft-prepared-to-defy-ftc-and-face-federal-merger-trial/index.html)

SmarterThanAll

Well see you're wrong on multiple fronts the FTC has little to no power to stop a deal only really delay until the Judiciary decide and the Judiciary are historically not favorable towards the FTC. In fact the Supreme Court is expected to make a decision this summer that will pretty much take the power to regulate mergers and acquisitions from the FTC and give it almost exclusively to the Judiciary.

BrainsNotBrawndo

The US FTC Lina Khan is still the biggest headwind. Author of *Amazon Antitrust paradox*, [her battle with Amazon is about to launch into the public square](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/20/ftc-amazon-irobot-antitrust-00087711), arguing against them buying MGM and iRobot (Roombas)

echobox_rex

True but remember: SVB fails: FDIC on the scene. FTC fails: crickets.

Covashed

*FTC wants to know your location*

Hallal_Dakis

I don't really understand how they have so many anti-trust cases going without making the argument (in many of them) for why what they're suing against is bad for the consumer. >Though many FTC staffers saw that behavior as anti-competitive and illegal — acquiring a competitor rather than competing on the merits — the agency ultimately decided it would be too challenging to define exactly what market Amazon was monopolizing, ... Because they're not monopolizing anything with these acquisitions.

french-caramele

>FTC picking its cases with caution America, the litigious game of life or death

qwertyaas

FTC dumped 50%, now up 42% from bottom and halted

decibelnv

I do it in Google Sheets, but my formulas are not 100% accurate yet. I don't factor in or track the FTC fees, and probably have a couple other things wrong. I've only started options a week ago.

LearnNewThingsDaily

Sorry but bny Mellon will never go under...but I'll take moass across the top with FTC, bac and the rest

Cute_Activity5930

Doesnt look good for my FTC with that record

Amazin_Pig-Savin_Boy

I was working at FTC fresh out of law school in the early 2000s and the whole agency was buzzing with talk about regulating day traders, even though it wasn't even really our wheelhouse. All this shit was almost not allowed to exist to begin with and I always considered the critics to be unreasonably cynical, but here we are and everything has gotten stupid as fuck, so I guess I was wrong. That also explains how I've lost so much money trying to invest for myself. Huh...

Comprehensive_Bad650

There are essentially 3 big banking systems in the world. The European system, the Chinese system and the US system. Europe is right now trying to sell a bank bail out of Credit Swiss to its people. Sorry to say the European taxpayer & particularly the Swiss taxpayer won’t be too happy about bailing out the Saudis who were the biggest shareholder in Credit Swiss. Good luck Euprope, we did that in 2008 & it didn’t solve the systemic risk. Lol. The Chinese banking system can bail anyone it wants out with no need to ask the Chinese taxpayer for any approval. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can be as fair as it wants or be completely UNFAIR, because they control the Chinese courts, the banking system. If they were willing to put Jack Ma, the richest Chinese citizen in indefinite house arrest & take a HUGE chunk of his money away & poor Jack couldn’t contest it in court, think of how safe a foreigners money is in the Chinese banking system. That is why Jack is now permanently living in Japan. Lol. I believe the checks & balances between the US government & the private baking sector make the US banking system the fairest & most stable compared to the European or Chinese banking system. What the US government is basically saying to its citizens & the world is any money DEPOSITED in a U.S. bank will be the safest than anywhere else. And if you invest in the US there is HUGE opportunity for growth & wealth but YOU as an investor MUST be VIGILANT into what YOU invest in. INVESTMENTS are NOT guaranteed, you must do your homework on what you invest. If you buy shares in a bank, you must hold the board & management of that bank accountable to make good investments, if they don’t, then invest in a company that listens to you. That is why the US requires public companies to disclose financial information quarterly. If you invest in a private company, than it’s up to you to have that company disclose financial information to you, and if they are secretive about it, then it’s your choice to stay invested in that company or leave it. Now we just have to make sure Signature & SVB are not allowed to be acquired to a Too-Big-To-Fail bank. The FTC must block such acquisitions because it’s bad for consumers, and would only make the Too-Big-To-Fail problem bigger. Allowing midsize banks to acquire Signature & SVB will create more competition to the Too-Big-To-Fail banks, which in effect make the Too-Big-To-Fail problem less of a problem.

Comprehensive_Bad650

It’s looking to me like FTC chairperson Lina Khan won’t approve the acquisition of SVB or Signature by the too-big-to-fail banks due to antitrust fears against consumers. She is very against monopolistic power by too-big-to-fail corporations. Allowing the big banks to buy the competition will only make the too-big -fail-problem even bigger. (Look up why Facebook hates Lina Khan). So Signature & SVB will likely be allowed by the FTC to be sold to midsize banks in a bidding process. Creating two substantial competitors to the big banks. So to prevent from the government from creating more competitors, the big banks will prevent another smaller bank from collapsing. Seems to me like the too-big-to-fail banks are caught in a catch22 scenario. It seems like the response by the government will actually make the US banking system even more stable. Bill Akman did tweeted Friday that Bank of America is rumored to buy Signature bank. NEVER EVER fully trust anything Bill Akman says. He’s got a big mouth & is a market manipulator from what I’ve see over years. I HIGLY doubt B of A will waste its time because the acquisition will VERY likely be BLOCKED by Lina Khan.

Comprehensive_Bad650

So when a bank pays their employees every week, that’s also with taxpayer money? That makes no sense. It seems to me that the government won’t allow the big banks to acquire SVB, due to antitrust fears & making too-big-fail banks even more too-big-to-fail. The FTC (Federal Trades Commission) has the authority to block any acquisition by on grounds of antitrust against the consumer. Lina Kahn will do everything in her power to NOT let these big banks get bigger, she has proven to be very much against monopolistic power by giant corporations. (That’s why Facebook & Amazon were so against her appointment). So these too-big-to-fail banks are realizing they won’t benefit from 1st Republic bank collapsing by buying it up. The FTC will only likely authorize the acquisition of SVB to a midsize bank therefore creating a new significant competitor to the too-big-to-fail banks. So the next best thing for these too-big-to-fail banks is to keep the system the way it currently is by taking the deposits that flowed out fear into their banks & injecting it back to 1st Republic. Because of 1st Republic fails, management & shareholders will lose their money. And 1st Republic will de sold to another midsize banks, therefore creating yet another competitor to the top-big-to-fail banks. What i’d like to know is, if the Big banks bought up shares of First Republic right before this 30 Billion deal was made. That would have been insider trading, which is illegal & Gary Gensler of the SEC (Securities & Exchange Commission) would need to investigate. We should all be keeping a close eye on who is allowed to buy up SVB & how. That’s the BIG question right now. This is an opportunity for the US banking system to show the world that deposits put in the US banking system are the SAFEST in the world because of checks & balances that are in place between the private institutions & the government institutions. Much safer than Chinas banking system, in which the CCP can literally just do whatever it wants. Literally Jack Ma, a Chinese citizen, was put in house arrest indefinitely & had a huge chunk of wealth taken away & he had no way to contest this injustice in a Chinese court.

Pope_Beenadick

Not returning the premium and not honoring the contract is a breach and they're opening themselves up to big dick daddy SEC and FTC coming aswingin'. This isn't a game, they're playing with the essence of the options market with these moves. Put up or shut it down.

Frank_Caswole

If you're already all-in on FTC, soon, you won't need to worry about money.

Tootard

It fell during this period due to 2 key events: Luna crash and FTC crash... both of them were applying a centralised approach (traditional banking, recklessly investing customer assets) to crypto purposed to the exact opposite (keep a store of value in your own hands, away from someone else) I respect your opinion, I might be wrong moving some of my savings to different asset classes (crypto and gold) but have been doing so for a while and despite the crashes overall still doing well. It is everyone's choice to do as they wish with their money, I do not feel like it should be used the way it is by banks or governments but if you are good for you

moonman138

FTC might as well come out now and say Meta is not allowed to buy tiktok. 

0dteSPYFDs

FTC wouldn’t allow it.

VisualMod

>FTC: ORDERS WERE SENT TO META PLATFORMS, INSTAGRAM, LLC, YOUTUBE, TIKTOK, SNAP, INC, TWITTER, INC, PINTEREST, INC, AND TWITCH INTERACTIVE ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-16 ^13:48:34 ^EDT-0400

VisualMod

>FTC: ISSUES 6(B) ORDERS TO META, TIKTOK, YOUTUBE, TWITTER, OTHERS SEEKING INFO ON HOW PLATFORMS SCREEN FOR MISLEADING ADS FOR SCAMS, COUNTERFEIT PRODUCTS ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-16 ^13:45:55 ^EDT-0400

TantraMantraYantra

BBBY returning to its FMV is long overdue. There's no fomo buying yet because RC sold in Aug 21 and got sued. Plus he is still under standstill and can't tweet or do anything that can land him in more legal trouble. From all the movements at the company, it is evident that a M&A is in the works. And I believe it is being delayed by FTC

EarbudScreen

That $20 billion Figma deal still working its way through the FTC with a $1 billion break up fee...

orangechicken21

If FTC had just been left alone nothing bad would have happened!!!... For Kevin O'Leary...

veilwalker

“Where was the FED when FTC collapsed…reeee!!” - Kevin O’Leary

Comprehensive_Bad650

FDIC insured Banks, which is most of them, continually pay into the FDIC insurance. (Credit unions have a similar insurance program) Money in the FDIC is money collected from BANKS, not taxpayers. Read up on the how the FDIC works & it’s history. Here is a link: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Deposit_Insurance_Corporation And there has been no deal made to buy SVB since the FDIC had taken control of it. It has to be auctioned to the highest bidder & the FTC makes sure it’s acquisition does not go against any antitrust laws. It could also be broken up into separate parts & sold that way. Not sure how the process is determined. But the whole process will take time. As of now the FDIC has taken control of SVB. It immediately fired management after taking over. (Apparently management paid out 2022 bonuses hours before bank shut down) Once sold, there will likely be money to pay bond holders & if there is leftover money from that (which is unlikely) some shareholders will get some money too. Again no taxpayer money will be used in this whole process, Other than the money we pay the people managing the Treasury department, the FTC & the FDIC, courts etc. But this is why we fund these government agencies, so they can run smoothly to keep our system safe from greedy idiot bankers. But this also why we don’t want bankers, like Jamie Dimon (JP Morgan chase bank CEO, running these government agencies. Fun fact: Trump wanted to have Jamie Dimon be Secretary of the Treasury. Yes, the CEO of the largest US too-big-to-fail bank was offered the job of Secretary of the Treasury by the Trump. But Jamie Dimon said no, because he had more power being CEO of the largest bank in America than being secretary of the US treasury. Plus bankers don’t go to prison ever for breaking laws in the US, but if he was a government employee he could go to prison for breaking the law. Apparently Republicans believe corporations are people, but of course we all know we can’t jail a corporation. It’s a great system for the corporations. (Read up on Citizens United Supreme Court ruling: saying corporations are people and money is speech. Yes that is what Republicans believe. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/donald-trump-jamie-dimon-jp-morgan-top-job-transition-team-treasury-a7423186.html?amp The fact that SVB shareholders & management won’t be bailed out, gives me more trust in our banking system. It sends a message to other banks’ shareholders that they better actively keep an eye on the bank management so they don’t take too much risk.

Comprehensive_Bad650

No money will be printed. The FDIC funding was already paid for by the banks. Yellen already said No shareholders will be bailed out. People are already saying they want to buy SVB, a very good sign also that the question is who will regulators allow to acquire SVB & will it be broken into parts to be sold. There are anti-trust laws in place that can allow the FTC to challenge an anti-competitive acquisition. We as consumers must advocate to make the FTC challenge any acquisition of SVF that is bad for consumers. And/or have congress pass a laws that does NOT allow a failed bank that has been funded by the FDIC to be acquired by a foreign entity, and Not acquired by an already too-big-to-fail bank.

sescobreezy727

Just ran the numbers. Check this train of thought. Vanguard Alone. Just tracking the majority share positions they possess on four TOP banks plus SVB Shares. Of course they are majority with ever major cap. Vanguard would surpass losses of 43.5 billion for the week through JUST BoA,JpM,Wells ,US Bancorp and puny SVB would surpass 44.5 billion, negating any lending returns. That's just reported shares. Of course they were short. Of course those corporations won’t even be mentioned in the turmoil. Would be awesome to watch these question’s posed to the FTC or the CFTC. Pertaining to their goals and understanding. What are the largest holding companies doing for the country? The world? GME and Bobby to the moon tomorrow.

Walternotwalter

That is not regulating. Regulation would be like "a bank is legally obligated to hedge long term bonds at dogshit rates for interest rate risk to maintain withdrawal liquidity" or "you need a job and income and credit to get six figure loans to buy real estate". That's regulation. I could go on. The repeal of Glass-Steagall is another winner of long term stability..... I can go on. But at the end of the day, the leadership of the SVB was stupid and the depositors not using sweeps for FDIC insurance or a major bank are equally dumb. I have built and sold two companies and I always held payroll and operating accounts at two separate large national banks. When I start another I will likely use a sweep through a single entity at this point because Congress, Treasury, the FTC, and SEC are clearly incompetent of any sort of pragmatic application of regulatory policy. And I don't care what administration it is. It's not political. These people are straight up stupid.

DRKMSTR

I'm sure the FTC will find another reason to spy on twitter. Because lets face it, that company is more dangerous than any bank failure. /s

Comprehensive_Bad650

Yellen seems to be saying the right things. But WHO will be allowed to acquire all of SVB or parts of it if it’s it’s broken up. Too-big-to-fail banks should NOT be allowed to buy the competition & make the too-big-to-fail problem even bigger. Chairperson Lina Khan from the FTC should block any attempt for a too-big-to-fail bank from acquiring any part of SVB.

expressadmin

There are worse out there. Freedom in particular for VA loans. They aren't bad in the service part of the loan. They are just going to call you repeatedly and use every opportunity to try and market their services to you. They really take the whole "prior existing business relation" thing to heart and just call you every month. It got so bad I had to send them a letter to stop calling me. Then they tried to do the "straight to voice mail" thing at which point I sent them another letter informing them that was still considered a "call" in the whole "do not call" sort of thing. I think they finally got the point because I haven't gotten a call from them since. But it's a shame I had to threaten them with an FTC and FCC complaints to get them to stop. Don't try and sell me shit, just shut up and take my intrest payments for the next 30 years.

Zealousideal-Lie-173

Yeah. It’s totally that. Bro. Or he did it specifically not to be an insider. You know. Due to the FTC and all. Bro. 🤡

smokeshowwalrus

Watch $ptve tomorrow. Just announced they’re shutting down two of their major paper mills and three of the execs are probably in hot water with the FTC soon. All of this is not to mention that they’re about to run up against NC as they’ve gotten quite a few tax breaks and then shut down that mill very soon after.

BEAR_STEARNS_CEO

If you bought those yesterday the FTC would be calling you today lmao

VisualMod

>U.S. FTC SAYS IT ACTS TO BLOCK DEAL COMBINING THE TWO TOP MORTGAGE LOAN TECHNOLOGY PROVIDERS \>U.S. ANTITRUST ENFORCER WILL SEEK TO STOP INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE FROM BUYING MORTGAGE DATA VENDOR BLACK KNIGHT ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-09 ^13:52:49 ^EST-0500

Deep90

Standard oil was over 100 years ago. Back when the FTC had teeth. Standard oil was broken into 33 companies. Today they have merged into just 4. Exonmobil, Chevron, BP, and Marathon. AT&T spilt and merged into AT&T, Verizon, and Qwest.

Foriegn_Picachu

>The FTC doesn’t have teeth Tell that to Standard oil. The FTC was created to prevent monopolies like what door dash wants. But I do agree with your last point, there is a way around if they play it smart

Deep90

The FTC doesn't have teeth and they can partially avoid federal scrutiny by targeting only the areas where there are still competitors.

Foriegn_Picachu

Even if this plan works, a single antitrust lawsuit from the FTC would shatter them

Alarmed-Apple-9437

Well it exists and it is called the FTC.

VisualMod

>FTC TWITTER INVESTIGATION SOUGHT ELON MUSK’S INTERNAL COMMUNICATIONS, JOURNALIST NAMES- WSJ ^First ^Squawk ^[@FirstSquawk](http://twitter.com/FirstSquawk) ^at ^2023-03-07 ^16:34:44 ^EST-0500

edgar__allan__bro

Eh, not really. Miss Cleo was just the public figurehead for the Psychic Readers Network; she wasn't the one at the top of the scheme collecting all of the money. Also, of the $1bil that the company raked in, the FTC ordered half of it to be paid back to customers. I believe Youree Harris (Miss Cleo's real name) herself passed away with a net worth of about $200k.

droans

The FTC and DOJ have to agree that the acquisition can go through. They want to ensure there is no negative impact for the marketplace and for consumers. Sony is currently trying to block it by proving it is anticompetitive. Microsoft has to prove it isn't.

Professional-Fig3346

The issue being FTC sold securities supposedly backed by shares.

PapaCharlie9

FWIW, that merger is looking less and less likely to happen, since there is rising anti-trust concern in Congress and the FTC. The fact that ATVI is priced at $79 today vs. a $95 offer is a pretty good indication that the merger isn't a certainty. In any case, what usually happens is that the expiration date of all outstanding contracts is accelerated to some day near or on the day ATVI is delisted, so that day in July 2023 probably. Then whatever the terms of the deal are become the deliverable for all contracts. If it's an all cash deal like you said, instead of a call delivering shares, it will deliver some amount of cash instead.

SirLeaf

Yeah bro if TSLA chokes itself any more on profits big daddy FTC might have something nice to say.

VisualMod

>U.S. FTC SAYS IT ISSUES ORDER TO BAN BETTERHELP FROM REVEALING CONSUMERS' DATA TO FACEBOOK AND OTHERS FOR TARGETED ADVERTISING $META ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2023-03-02 ^11:21:07 ^EST-0500

BernardoDeGalvez

Why would/should the FTC block their acquisitions?? Not talking about an investor standpoint, but as a freedom/free market advocate

Seanspicegirls

Their infrastructure and FTC’s inability to block their acquisitions leads me to believe they will be the lead horse in this sector for the foreseeable future. Cost cutting is the hype for investors in 2023 and meta will surely continue to do that as they ramp up R&D.

VisualMod

>House Republicans Launch Probe Into Pharmacy Benefit Managers -- WSJ \>Oversight Committee Seeks Rebate-and-Fees Documents From CVS Caremark, OptumRx and Express Scripts -- WSJ \>House Pharmacy Benefit Managers Probe Follows FTC Investigation Launched Last Year -- WSJ ^\*Walter ^Bloomberg ^[@DeItaone](http://twitter.com/DeItaone) ^at ^2023-03-01 ^08:15:32 ^EST-0500

No_Weakness_7920

What does it mean that there are a score of law firms spamming their suits against MPW? Doesn't the FTC sue using whomever they please? Will investors just sort themselves into several class actions? Why is it more desirable, that there be several actions, than for these firms to coordinate and file together?

AthousandThoughts

Well. Same catch as with Activision. If the deal doesn't go through Black knight's stock price will fall. Personally though, I'd rather have Black knight shares than Activision shares (their last quarterly report wasn't great due to the high interest rates, but as a general company I prefere them over Activision). The shareprice of Black knight dropped quite harshly today as it was announced that the FTC is likely to block the deal (or so it has been reported). I still think it will go through and as such i bought more shares today. I would propose the pros and contras of taking the Black knight merger over the Microsoft one like so: **Pro:** * ~34,5% vs 24% (not sure on the exact number) gain * PE of Black Knight is almost half of Activision. I am unaware of any scandels on the side of Black Knight. * No EU and UK to overcome. **Cons:** * Smaller compensation (750 M vs 3B) if the deal should fall through, even when considering market cap (for special dividend or share buyback). Additionally, either Black Knight as well as ICE (the buyer) can terminate the deal before May afaik and then ICE wouldn't have to pay the 750 M termination fee. Microsoft is beyond this point and has to fork over the 3B if the deal doesn't come to pass. The 750 M and 3B is 2% and 5% of Black Knights and Activisions Market cap, respectively. So Activision wins here. * ICE's CEO is a major GOP donor. Not sure if this would have any influence, it's just something I read and this is at-best neutral when going up against the FTC under Biden. I don't know much, please inform yourselves!

HereForTwinkies

Coin has been a mess because people don’t know if the FTC and SEC are going to do anything with staking.

Zwatrem

It won't close soon. With the FTC lawsuit, it won't close before 2024.

Dull_Cheesecake4982

I won’t and can’t go into details, because I cover this specifically. But here are some points. You can easily find out more info online as it’s widely available data and info. - upside case obviously is a 24ish % at current prices, and best part is you get it all back in cold hard cash, not MSFT shares. - downside case is a failure of the deal to go through, but then MSFT has to pay ATVI a breakup fee of 2-3bn in cash, which ATVI can use to buyback shares or conduct a special dividend. Of course most people would be concerned w the question: how far will ATVI fall if the deal falls through? - assuming that ATVI would return to trading at the multiples of its closest peers (Nintendo, Sony, EA, take two), a reasonable estimate would be ~$65-69 range EXCLUDING the impact of the break up fee, which is just about its price range before the acquisition announcement. - if (AND A BIG IF) you include the cash breakup fee and assume that ATVI decides to return part of that to shareholders, one could see an additional $0.50 to $2 per share added on top of the range above. - So actually the downside doesn’t seem all too bad, at around ~15% (assuming it really does fall to $65). This puts risk-reward ratio at 1.6 (24%/15%), which ain’t too bad at all. Morgan Stanley has also done it’s own downside analysis as well and predicted a price floor of $65 as well, and currently rates it a buy. - to top it off it’s a fundamentally strong company as well, with game IPs and brands that are globally recognised and successful. It’s latest call of duty release was it’s most successful ever as the company continues to be able to execute strongly on how to capture more gamers yet retain its existing one and monetise them well. Balance sheet is healthy and there really aren’t much complaints with its fundamentals other than some controversies here and there. - there are really only 3 regulators the deal needs to clear, FTC, EU and UK CMA. All 3 are seemingly on the side of not letting this pass. FTC has alr filed a lawsuit against ATVI, while both EU and UK CMA have raised concerns and papers of their own. Perhaps they are all playing the waiting game - if one regulator opposes it as the first mover, its much easier to “rationalize” opposing it as well, but the question is who would want to be that first mover? On the flip side, If one regulator approves it first, the chances of the deal going through would jump significantly as the others might just follow suit. Perhaps if you don’t like the uncertainty now, you could wait for some positive news (like a first major approval) and sacrifice some upside potential for more certainty. Prices could easily jump up to 83-86 by then. Personally I hold q a significant amount of ATVI (~12% of my pf), because I hold conviction that MSFT has the right people in place to recognise how impt this deal is to them and to negotiate a concession agreement that makes everyone happy. MSFT has never failed an acquisition in its entire history and it lends some confidence that it has the right people, strategy and relationships in place to see this out. Interestingly enough, as the price has been so flat since the announcement of the acquisition I had the extra benefit of this position buffering my portfolio from some of the market downside (reducing volatility) and actually I somehow (luckily) outperformed many indexes last year. The price action is lowly correlated to the market at this point but rather to developments on the deal. People saying that “this deal is too big to fail” know nothing, don’t listen to them. Any deal, no matter the size, can fail still, so do still manage how risk adverse you are.

lotus_bubo

Not while Lina runs the FTC.

RedBeard1967

Probably the summer. The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority and EU need to work out some concessions with Microsoft in order to get the deal done, which likely won’t happen until after April some time. The FTC has also tried to block the deal, but they will lose. If you want to enter, you need to consider doing it before the CMA or EU come to terms with MSFT because I imagine a lot of people will enter once that uncertainty is gone, and the price will go up. Not financial advice though, as obviously the market writ large is skeptical the deal will go through, or there wouldn’t be such a gap between the prices.

Ehralur

Yep exactly, and Mary Barra has been saying such outrageously nonsensical stuff I personally believe it should qualify as misleading investors and warrant an FTC indictment.

hambone_83

Appreciate the work you've put into this. I'm saving this post as I think it would be very interesting in the future to look back and see how much meat was on the bone. Its easy to go down the rabbit hole of conspiracy on things like this. Especially after staring at a market that has been beat up so badly due to so many stupid factors. I'm not going to say whether there is validity to this or not because truth be told I have no idea. However I think it would be helpful to realize the following: 1. It would be difficult to get all of this past the FTC Competition Bureau 2. There are more big players that would be involved than what you've mentioned. I don't think they would go down quietly. Pharma, CPG, private equity, etc. will want their slice of the pie. Sometimes the simplest explanation is the correct answer, even though the conspiracy seems to fit. At the end of the day, I hope you are wrong. Once again appreciate the work

Iconoclastices

Look at why Intel was fined billions by the FTC, EU (still ongoing), Japan and South Korea. Off the top of my head two of the worst: - Designing their compiler to create worse versions of software on non-Intel CPUs and outright lying about it to users - Arranging it so customers, like HP, couldn't take CPUs from AMD even if they were for free. This was because it would make them uncompetitive with their competition as Intel provided all of them with huge kickbacks

defnotabot_bot

Nah… it’s gonna be some random shit like a no-name supplier for a very specific tool used in a tank, the ticker will blow up (so to speak) 500% one day and there will be that one guy who posts his gain porn off of it and the responses will be “FTC? Yeah this guy right here”

NeedleworkerSolid564

Sorry this is so long you don't have to read. I'm Downvote not a parinoid scitzo for the record. Help me get clarity and explain what happened here, all this was within about a 1 week time span, I sound bat shit crazy which is why I am aaying this was a gaslighting. I feel like I was gaslighted by Amazon for openly speaking about issues I was having while working there. I've already wrote a letter to the FTC but never heard anything back in 3 years which is why I'm turning here to post this until I get some answers from someone involved, I want the truth if anyone can help. When I worked at Amazon a few years back I got a new manager and had a meeting which after I started getting strange calls, I was apart of their work from home program. I let my boss know about the strange calls I was getting like calls above averagely strange like wierd vibes from every customer and he said he didnt notice anything. After I let my boss know the wierd calls intensified to a point that I was even more so noticing because I had already been doing this a year and could tell what the average call was like. I felt like I was vaguely being directed messages in these calls which felt threatening and were all almost seemingly like they were sending me threats vaguely/indirectly with how they worded things similar to what politicians do. Next I went to go to store down road and a cop ambulence and another cop passed in front of my road which I thought was strange. When I get to the store there is a beat up car there with a door ripped off and guy just sitting there in his seat but even stranger thing was there was a life size blow up doll with arms moving around like it was a real person in car next to it. I noticed this all as I was walking into the grocery store. When I came out that dude in car with the door gone was by bushes next to enterance to store putting something in bushes, I walked to my car and drove back home which was near a river and guy on boat was barking at me like a dog which I just walked into my house scared shitless. The morning I went back to that same grocery store and some kid in there s all excited something about Amazon all I could overhear which was even more sus to me that I saw that manequin/blow up doll and dude in car night before had to be related to me. After that I had about an hour drive to visit family and I was literally calling people freaking out I was being followed after I was swarmmed with a couple dozen more beat up cars like night before, I get cut off by them a few times but finally make it to my destination safely, on my way home I encountered the same dozen or so beat up cars. After I had some packages that I sold and went to post office to find my mail lady acting strange and asking me what I did and I was just confused and handed her the package next thing I knew some dude with a big hat was standing awkwardly shuffling through the postcard rack and about 10 people walked in 1 after another staking packages not saying anything which was odd for a small town post office like mine that was never busy this was just one more strange incident I had that day. Next day a car pulls up next to mine while Im in Wendys drive through trying to wave me down next thing I know a cop pulls up right behind them and flicks them. At this point I am sus of everything and begin screaming at my phone because I think Im being watched through it and I break my laptop. Following days I start noticed dozens of beat up cars everywhere ago, like super beat up, which was odd, and they kept zig zagging and cutting me off till I got almost home. I decided to quit Amazon and the strange things stopped, can anyone help me understand this crazy situation, it does not appear to be coincidental. I was just an everyday employee, I had a seller account too but I think that was allowed. Please im confused why all this shit happened to me and it literally drove me insane to point my family was broke up because of it but I know what I was and I remember the vibes that happened, I'm pissed that this happened to me and I'm not gonna stop till I find out why. Thanks for reading, hoping to get any clairty.

NeedleworkerSolid564

Sorry this is so long you don't have read! I'm in search of anyone who can understand what I went through without falling for the gaslighting yourself. Help me get clarity and explain what happened here, all this was within about a 1 week time span, I sound bat shit crazy which is why I am aaying this was a gaslighting. I feel like I was gaslighted by Amazon for openly speaking about issues I was having while working there. I've already wrote a letter to the FTC but never heard anything back in 3 years which is why I'm turning here to post this until I get some answers from someone involved, I want the truth if anyone can help. When I worked at Amazon a few years back I got a new manager and had a meeting which after I started getting strange calls, I was apart of their work from home program. I let my boss know about the strange calls I was getting like calls above averagely strange like wierd vibes from every customer and he said he didnt notice anything. After I let my boss know the wierd calls intensified to a point that I was even more so noticing because I had already been doing this a year and could tell what the average call was like. I felt like I was vaguely being directed messages in these calls which felt threatening and were all almost seemingly like they were sending me threats vaguely/indirectly with how they worded things similar to what politicians do. Next I went to go to store down road and a cop ambulence and another cop passed in front of my road which I thought was strange. When I get to the store there is a beat up car there with a door ripped off and guy just sitting there in his seat but even stranger thing was there was a life size blow up doll with arms moving around like it was a real person in car next to it. I noticed this all as I was walking into the grocery store. When I came out that dude in car with the door gone was by bushes next to enterance to store putting something in bushes, I walked to my car and drove back home which was near a river and guy on boat was barking at me like a dog which I just walked into my house scared shitless. The morning I went back to that same grocery store and some kid in there s all excited something about Amazon all I could overhear which was even more sus to me that I saw that manequin/blow up doll and dude in car night before had to be related to me. After that I had about an hour drive to visit family and I was literally calling people freaking out I was being followed after I was swarmmed with a couple dozen more beat up cars like night before, I get cut off by them a few times but finally make it to my destination safely, on my way home I encountered the same dozen or so beat up cars. After I had some packages that I sold and went to post office to find my mail lady acting strange and asking me what I did and I was just confused and handed her the package next thing I knew some dude with a big hat was standing awkwardly shuffling through the postcard rack and about 10 people walked in 1 after another staking packages not saying anything which was odd for a small town post office like mine that was never busy this was just one more strange incident I had that day. Next day a car pulls up next to mine while Im in Wendys drive through trying to wave me down next thing I know a cop pulls up right behind them and flicks them. At this point I am sus of everything and begin screaming at my phone because I think Im being watched through it and I break my laptop. Following days I start noticed dozens of beat up cars everywhere ago, like super beat up, which was odd, and they kept zig zagging and cutting me off till I got almost home. I decided to quit Amazon and the strange things stopped, can anyone help me understand this crazy situation, it does not appear to be coincidental. I was just an everyday employee, I had a seller account too but I think that was allowed. Please im confused why all this shit happened to me and it literally drove me insane to point my family was broke up because of it but I know what I was and I remember the vibes that happened, I'm pissed that this happened to me and I'm not gonna stop till I find out why. Thanks for reading, hoping to get any clairty.

NeedleworkerSolid564

Help me get clarity and explain what happened here, all this was within about a 1 week time span, because I sound bat shit crazy but I feel like I was gaslighted by Amazon. I've already wrote a letter to the FTC but never heard anything back in 3 yearswhich is why Im turning here to post this, I want the truth if anyone can help. When I worked at Amazon a few years back I got a new manager and had a meeting which after I started getting strange calls, I was apart of their work from home program. I let my boss know about the strange calls I was getting like calls above averagely strange like wierd vibes from every customer and he said he didnt notice anything. After I let my boss know the wierd calls intensified to a point that I was even more so noticing because I had already been doing this a year and could tell what the average call was like. I felt like I was vaguely being directed messages in these calls which felt threatening and were all almost seemingly like they were sending me threats vaguely/indirectly with how they worded things similar to what politicians do. Next I went to go to store down road and a cop ambulence and another cop passed in front of my road which I thought was strange. When I get to the store there is a beat up car there with a door ripped off and guy just sitting there in his seat but even stranger thing was there was a life size blow up doll with arms moving around like it was a real person in car next to it. I noticed this all as I was walking into the grocery store. When I came out that dude in car with the door gone was by bushes next to enterance to store putting something in bushes, I walked to my car and drove back home which was near a river and guy on boat was barking at me like a dog which I just walked into my house scared shitless. Next morning I went back to that same grocery store and some kid in there s all excited something about Amazon all I could overhear which was even more sus to me that I saw that manequin and dude in car night before had to be related to me. After that I had about an hour drive to visit family and I was literally calling people freaking out I was being followed after I was swarmmed with a couple dozen more beat up cars like night before, I get cut off by them a few times but finally make it to my destination safely, on my way home I encountered the same dozen or so beat up cars. After I had some packages that I sold and went to post office to find my mail lady acting strange and asking me what I did and I just laughed next thing I knew some dude with a hat was standing awkwardly shuffling through some stuff and about 10 people kept walking in 1 after another staking packages which was odd for a small town post office like mine. Next day a car pulls up next to mine while Im in Wendys drive through trying to wave me down next thing I know a cop pulls up right behind them and flicks them. At this point I am sus of everything and begin screaming at my phone because I think Im being watched through it and I break my laptop. Following days I start noticed dozens of beat up cars everywhere ago, like super beat up, which was odd, and they kept zig zagging and cutting me off. I decided to quit Amazon and the strange things stopped, can anyone help me understand this? I was just an everyday employee, I had a seller account too but I think that was allowed. Please im confused why all this shit happened to me and it literally drove me insane to point my family was broke up because of it but I know what I was and I remember the vibes that happened, I'm pissed that this happened to me and I'm not gonna stop till I find out why. Thanks for reading, hoping to get any clairty.

NeedleworkerSolid564

Help me get clarity and explain what happened here, all this was within a 1 week time span, because I sound bat shit crazy but I feel like I was gaslighted by Amazon. I've already wrote a letter to the FTC but never heard anything back in 3 yearswhich is why Im turning here to post this, I want the truth. When I worked at Amazon a few years back I got a new manager and had a meeting which after I started getting strange calls which I was apart of their work from home program. I let my boss know about the strange calls I was getting like calls above averagely strange like wierd vibes from every customer and he said I was crazy. After I let my boss know the wierd calls intensified to a point that I was even more so noticing because I had already been doing this a year and could tell what the average call was like. NEXT DAY I went to go to store down road and a cop ambulence and another cop passed in front of my road which I thought was strange. When I get to the store there is a beat up car there with a door ripped off and guy just sitting there but even stranger thing was there was a life size blow up doll in car next to it. I noticed this all as I was walking into the grocery store. When I came out that dude in car with the door gone was by bushes next to enterance to store putting something in bushes, I walked to my car and drove back home which was near a river and guy on boat was barking at me which I just walked into my house scared shitless. Next day I went back to that same grocer store and some kid in there s all excited something about Amazon all I could overhear which was even more sus to me that I saw that manequin and dude in car night before had to be related to me. After that I had about an hour drive to visit family and I was literally calling people freaking out I was being followed after I was swarmmed with a couple dozen more beat up cars like night before, I get cut off by them a few times but finally make it to my destination safely, on my way home I encountered the same dozen or so beat up cars. After I had some packages that I sold and went to post office to find my mail lady acting strange and asking me what I did and I just laughed next thing I knew some dude with a hat was standing awkwardly shuffling through some stuff and about 10 people kept walking in 1 after another staking packages which was odd for a small town post office like mine. Next day a car pulls up next to mine while Im in Wendys drive through trying to wave me down next thing I know a cop pulls up right behind them and flicks them. At this point I am sus of everything and begin screaming at my phone because I think Im being watched through it and I break my laptop. Following days I start noticed dozens of beat up cars everywhere ago, like super beat up, which was odd, and they kept zig zagging and cutting me off. I decided to quit Amazon and the strange things stopped, can anyone help me understand this? I was just an everyday employee, I had a seller account too but I think that was allowed. Please im confused why all this shit happened to me and it literally drove me insane to point my family was broke up because of it but I know what I was and I remeber the vibes that happened, I'm pissed that this happened to me and Im not gonna stop till I find out why. Sorry this is so long of a story there's actually more but I'm not gonna get into anymore, but I want people to understand this is not a troll . Looking for if anyone know what couple have possibly happened to me because I felt straight up gaslighted and all lawyers I talked to said they aren't messing with Amazon. I have no idea why or what could have caused something like this to happen to me but it has never happened again since then.

crashhhyears

Dear Hiring Manager, This sounds crazy but I need some help from going crazy, I've already wrote a letter to the FTC but never heard anything which is ehy Im turning here to post this because I want the truth. When I worked at Amazon a few years back I got a new manager and had a meeting which after I started getting strange calls which I was apart of their work from home program. I let my boss know about the strange calls I was getting like calls above averagely strange like wierd vibes from every customer and he said I was crazy. NEXT DAY I went to go to store down road and a cop ambulence and another cop passed in front of my road which I thought was strange. When I get to the store there is a beat up car there with a door ripped off and guy just sitting there but even stranger thing was there was a life size blow up doll in car next to it. I noticed this all as I was walking into the grocery store. When I came out that dude im car eiith door gone was by bushes next to enterance to store putting something in bushes, I walked to my car and drove back home with nothing happening but just seeing all this. Next day I went back to that same grocer store and some kid in there s all excited something about Amazon all I could overhear which was even more sus to me that I saw that manequin and dude in car night before had to be related to me. After that I had about an hour drive to visit family and I was literally calling people freaking out I was being followed after I was swarmmed with a couple dozen more beat up cars like night before, I get cut off by them a few times but finally make it to my destination safely, on my way home I encountered the same dozen or so beat up cars. After I had some packages that I sold and went to post office to find my mail lady acting strange and asking me what I did and I just laughed next thing I knew some dude with a hat was standing awkwardly shuffling through some stuff and about 10 people kept walking in 1 after another staking packages which was odd for a small town post office like mine. Next day a car pulls up next to mine while Im in Wendys drive through trying to wave me down next thing I know a cop pulls up right behind them and flicks them. At this point I am sus of everything and begin screaming at my phone because I think Im being watched through it and I break my laptop. Following days I start noticed dozens of beat up cards everywhere ago which keep zig zagging and cutting me off. I decided to quit Amazon and the strange things stopped, can anyone help me understand this? I was just an everyday employee, I had a seller account too but that was allowed. Please im confused why all this shit happened to me and it literally drove me insane to point my family was broke up because of it but I know what I was and I remeber the vibes that happened, I'm pissed that this happened to me and Im not gonna stop till I find out why. Sorry this is so long there's actually more but I'm not gonna get into anymore. Help me get clarity and explain what happened here because I sound bat shit crazy.

NeedleworkerSolid564

This sounds crazy but I need some help from going crazy, I've already wrote a letter to the FTC but never heard anything which is ehy Im turning here to post this because I want the truth. When I worked at Amazon a few years back I got a new manager and had a meeting which after I started getting strange calls which I was apart of their work from home program. I let my boss know about the strange calls I was getting like calls above averagely strange like wierd vibes from every customer and he said I was crazy. NEXT DAY I went to go to store down road and a cop ambulence and another cop passed in front of my road which I thought was strange. When I get to the store there is a beat up car there with a door ripped off and guy just sitting there but even stranger thing was there was a life size blow up doll in car next to it. I noticed this all as I was walking into the grocery store. When I came out that dude im car eiith door gone was by bushes next to enterance to store putting something in bushes, I walked to my car and drove back home with nothing happening but just seeing all this. Next day I went back to that same grocer store and some kid in there s all excited something about Amazon all I could overhear which was even more sus to me that I saw that manequin and dude in car night before had to be related to me. After that I had about an hour drive to visit family and I was literally calling people freaking out I was being followed after I was swarmmed with a couple dozen more beat up cars like night before, I get cut off by them a few times but finally make it to my destination safely, on my way home I encountered the same dozen or so beat up cars. After I had some packages that I sold and went to post office to find my mail lady acting strange and asking me what I did and I just laughed next thing I knew some dude with a hat was standing awkwardly shuffling through some stuff and about 10 people kept walking in 1 after another staking packages which was odd for a small town post office like mine. Next day a car pulls up next to mine while Im in Wendys drive through trying to wave me down next thing I know a cop pulls up right behind them and flicks them. At this point I am sus of everything and begin screaming at my phone because I think Im being watched through it and I break my laptop. Following days I start noticed dozens of beat up cards everywhere ago which keep zig zagging and cutting me off. I decided to quit Amazon and the strange things stopped, can anyone help me understand this? I was just an everyday employee, I had a seller account too but that was allowed. Please im confused why all this shit happened to me and it literally drove me insane to point my family was broke up because of it but I know what I was and I remeber the vibes that happened, I'm pissed that this happened to me and Im not gonna stop till I find out why. Sorry this is so long there's actually more but I'm not gonna get into anymore. Help me get clarity and explain what happened here because I sound bat shit crazy.

ExEmergingmktPM

Is there a good record of acquisitions blocked by FTC somewhere?