See More StocksHome

GDP

Goodrich Petroleum Corporation

Show Trading View Graph

Mentions (24Hr)

10

100.00% Today

Volume

$0

Avg Volume

$61.6K

Market Cap

$368M

52 Week High

$26.66

52 Week Low

$8.61

Day High

$23.02

Day Low

$22.97

Previous Close

$22.99

7 Days Mentions

84

Reddit Posts

Technical Analysis: Why the VIX is on its way to 150 and the SPX is on its way to <2000

Tonight's "scary data" has the risk of blowing up, how will it stir the market?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

BTFD and HODL till Fed hit 2%

$BEST inc is one of the top undervalued plays IMO: high short float; big revenue; and potential bullish surprises. Some brief dd

r/ShortsqueezeSee Post

$BEST inc is one of the top undervalued plays IMO: high short float; big revenue; and potential bullish surprises. Some brief dd

r/StockMarketSee Post

$BEST inc is one of the top undervalued plays IMO: high short float; big revenue; and potential bullish surprises. Some brief dd

r/pennystocksSee Post

$BEST inc is one of the top undervalued plays IMO: high short float; big revenue; and potential bullish surprises. Some brief dd

40 years of change: the last time the CPI "7 times" what happened?

r/stocksSee Post

Why are China stocks going up while China is imposing Covid Zero Policy?

r/optionsSee Post

Today's focus: All stocks in the green, Powell testimony not hawkish enough?

Last night and this morning: Powell's testimony not hawkish enough? Good situation for global equities----For shring

r/stocksSee Post

Rising interest rates? Remember the long-term trend.

The Fed is trapped, they have to hike rates, but they wont make it very far before breaking the markets this time. I predict only 5 rate hikes this cycle, details below

Is it different this time? A wider perspective.

r/stocksSee Post

Hiring falters in December as payrolls rise only 199,000, though the unemployment fell to 3.9%

r/pennystocksSee Post

$DTGI Digerati Closes Acquisition of SkyNet Telecom

r/investingSee Post

Going against the tide on growth. Simply do not care.

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Last night and this morning: U.S. stocks 2022 had a scare to open! Tesla rises 13% higher----For sharing.

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Freddie and Fannie

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Economist slash GDP est Q1 22’ Omicron’s Spread Will Slam First-Quarter GDP. Here’s How Bad Things Look. https://www.barrons.com/articles/omicron-covid-first-quarter-gdp-economy-51640739855?st=m0o9m1y0n9ph106

r/stocksSee Post

Hypothetical scenario of how Apple would become a Company worth far more than current World GDP in 50 years.

r/investingSee Post

Mega cap growth in the next 10-30 years?

r/stocksSee Post

Lemonade dd ($LMND) a speculative play in the old insurance market.

r/stocksSee Post

Palantir Technologies (PLTR): What's it worth? "Warren B" Analysis

r/stocksSee Post

BABA, the PERFECT opportunity

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

China's Currency Trouble.

r/optionsSee Post

Last night and this morning: see the Christmas carnival market again! U.S. stock indexes reap three straight gains----For share

r/StockMarketSee Post

Here is a Market Recap for today Thursday, Dec 23, 2021. Merry Christmas!

r/stocksSee Post

Here is a Market Recap for today Thursday, Dec 23, 2021. Merry Christmas!

r/optionsSee Post

Summary of market change news--For share

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Last night this morning: the US stock index rose two consecutive! Tesla surged more than 7%

r/StockMarketSee Post

Here is a Market Recap for today Wednesday, December 22, 2021

r/stocksSee Post

Here is a Market Recap for today Wednesday, Dec 22, 2021

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

GDP 3rd estimate better than expected (2.3 v 2.1) + FDA Pill Approvals + COVID + BBB + Tesla

r/optionsSee Post

Buy put or call? Tools to find out where the market will (probably) head

r/StockMarketSee Post

Are we heading into bull or bear market? Tools to help you decide for yourself

r/stocksSee Post

US 3Q GDP grows 2.3%, decelerating GDP growth was led by a slow down in consumer spending

r/StockMarketSee Post

Here is a Market Recap for today Tuesday, Dec 21, 2021. Please enjoy!

r/stocksSee Post

Here is a Market Recap for today Tuesday, Dec 21, 2021. Please enjoy!

r/StockMarketSee Post

Here's Your Daily Market Brief For December 21st

r/StockMarketSee Post

Here's Your Daily Market Brief For December 20th

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Why a financial crisis is bound to happen sooner or later

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

The Death of the Dollar

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

The Death of the Dollar

r/investingSee Post

On the Buffet Indicator and the current "Strongly Overvalued" Stock Market

r/investingSee Post

Debt & credit cycles and the role they play in portfolio strategy

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

If You Think Inflation Will Stay Around Longer Than Your Dad, Buy $TLT Puts

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Inflation is Not Going Away Soon

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

The Current State of Semiconductors

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

The Current State of Semiconductors

r/investingSee Post

The Current State of Semiconductors

r/optionsSee Post

Considering SPY 2023 LEAPS

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

AAPL The Greatest Short of All Time

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Dollar Static Ahead of Key CPI Release; Sterling Flat After GDP Data

r/investingSee Post

Pensions - Should I be overweight home country?

r/stocksSee Post

Credit Suisse sees S&P 500 reaching 5200 in 2022, citing economic growth

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Went all-in on $BABA

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Went all-in on $BABA

r/investingSee Post

Is the party coming to an end?

r/investingSee Post

Buy the Dip or Sell the Rip?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Chinese stocks in turmoil

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

u/Reduntu requested the graph with credit balance as a % of GDP and the S&P on a log scale. Sources, Finra margin stats, St Louis Fred quarterly GDP and Standard & Poors.

r/investingSee Post

Chinese Developer and Holding Company Sunshine 100 Defaults on Its Debt

r/investingSee Post

My Eureka Moment: Crypto, Equities, Inflation, and the FED's Monetary Policy

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

SITC (1308, HK, BUY, 70% upside) – Loading up

r/investingSee Post

Comparing macro trends from 08 to 21

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Imminent Stock Market Crash

r/investingSee Post

Calculate inflation by simply comparing the cost of everything to money supply – your opinions?

r/stocksSee Post

Why will stock markets fall drastically in 2021?

r/optionsSee Post

🕵️‍♂️ 🦃 I SPY TA - Friday Nov. 26, 2021

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

🕵️‍♂️ 🦃 I SPY TA - Friday Nov. 26, 2021

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

🕵️‍♂️ 🦃 I SPY TA - Friday Nov. 26, 2021

r/SPACsSee Post

PPGH-Gogoro Expansion/Partnership into India, China & Indonesia DD

r/StockMarketSee Post

Here's Your Daily Market Brief For November 23rd

r/StockMarketSee Post

Here's Your Daily Market Brief For November 22nd

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

A new type of analysis method about the country market for potential futures price changes

r/investingSee Post

US debt spiral, money printing, how does it end?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning November 22nd, 2021

r/stocksSee Post

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning November 22nd, 2021

r/stocksSee Post

Are stock still the best investment for an era of inflation? If so, what kinds of stocks perform best?

r/weedstocksSee Post

Opinion: Cannabis contributes almost as much to Canada's GDP as the dairy industry. Why isn't the government taking it seriously?

r/StockMarketSee Post

Africa as the next China?

r/StockMarketSee Post

What caused China's economy slowdown? Power shortages and real estate crisis (Evergrande)??

r/smallstreetbetsSee Post

What caused China's economy slowdown? Power shortages and real estate crisis (Evergrande)??

r/ShortsqueezeSee Post

Dodd Franks Act

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

What caused China's economy slowdown? Power shortages and real estate crisis (Evergrande)??

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Apparently, Chinese Railway Corporation (CRC) is 1.8 TRILLION+ in debt (!) losing 24 million a day! Shanghai GDP in comparison is only $600 Billion.

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Does anyone here do DCF models before they add stocks to their portfolio?

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

No Gay Bear crash. Maybe Japanification

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Virgin Galactic - The Ultimate Growth Stock

r/StockMarketSee Post

Virgin Galactic - The Ultimate Growth Stock

r/stocksSee Post

Virgin Galactic - The Ultimate Growth Stock

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Virgin Galactic - The Ultimate Growth Stock

r/stocksSee Post

Gross Domestic Product/ usa stocks

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

🕵️‍♂️ Market Crash of 2021, and "The Greatest Depression" of 2022? 🕵️‍♂️

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

Why this bull run is FAR from over. WARNING: NSFB (not safe for bears)

r/wallstreetbetsSee Post

How much slower can GDP go

Mentions

More GDP that developing nations and some developed nations

Mentions:#GDP

No idea, don’t follow him in that much detail. Consider that as a professional investor who has spent 8+ hours a day doing this for probably longer than you’ve been alive, with more capital at hand than the GDP of a small island nation, what he does to make money may be very different than what is good for the average investor to make money.

Mentions:#GDP

Idk what's making it blow up so fast, but the Buffett Indicator is over 200% Market Cap to GDP ratio. For comparison, the 2000 DotCom bubble maxed out at 140%, and the 2007 housing crisis was just over 100%. Full Market Cap to GDP history found here: https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/

Mentions:#GDP

Russia also has an artificially depressed GDP because of sanctions and currency. Their PPP is actually quite good, so domestic supply is greatly advantages over buying it even when there is oversupply.

Mentions:#GDP

Hyperinflation mainly occurs when the country has large amount of debts denominated in a foreign currency and is desperate to keep people employed. The (better) alternative is to raise interest rates which will also allow imports to become cheaper as the currency appreciates from capital inflows seeking higher real returns. That also makes paying back the foreign debt easier. But that does come at a cost of higher short term unemployment. The ideal monetary policy in this situation imo maximizes the nominal GDP denominated in a reserve currency so that foreign debts can be reduced most quickly. Either that or invest in a military so that you can enact leverage to reduce the debt (Germany’s strategy in the 1930s). Instead we see leaders cripple the country as they keep printing more money to give to the people who race to the exchanges and pay down the foreign debt before it becomes devalued yet again. It’s a bad look to raise interest rates since it’ll be corporations paying down the debt while the people become unemployed and politicians can’t handle bad looks. The US dollar is a reserve currency already so all the above doesn’t really apply until we have another currency that looks more attractive. US debt is overwhelming denominated in US dollars.

Mentions:#GDP

Fwd PE, PEG and debt in comparison to competitors are my heaviest used metrics. But right now all the market metrics (PE, PS, Market/GDP) are saying we have entered bubble territory, so I'm reducing my exposure to stocks. Cash is an awful place to be with inflation at 7% but much better than the 30% or more drop in the market that is needed to bring us back down to reasonable value.

Mentions:#PEG#GDP

We are objectively no where near hyperinflation. Don't mix it up with stagflation, the two terms are not interchangeable. At the moment GDP is still growing, so that's not an immediate risk either. Obviously growth is slowing down since our crazy bounce back, but we survived the stagnant economy of the 70s. Best to stay invested in quality

Mentions:#GDP

Lol you’re clearly the type of American that has a very limited perspective on the rest of the world, especially if you think raw GDP per capita stats mean shit about quality of life. But it’s ok, you do you. America #1, fuck the communists!

Mentions:#GDP

I expect 'reversion to the average' and possibly overshoot into better than averaging pricing. https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php By the Buffett indicator the US market would need to fall by more than 50% to reach the average again. To reach historical 'cheap' levels you're looking at a 75% drop from here. https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe By the CAPE shiller measure the US market would need to fall more than 50% to get to the average again. To reach historical 'cheap' levels, you're looking at a 75% drop from here. These measures of broad market valuation work in completely different ways so it's kind of interesting that they line up so well. Similarly from dividend yield, if we see 1.5-2.5% rise in interest rates moving closer towards the average, I would add that to the current SP500 dividend yield to get a rough idea. Again a 50% drop from here. If we need to reach the levels that were achieved historically to control inflation, again a 75% drop in the SP500 from here. Sales are another interesting measure. Sales tend to be a lot more stable than earnings over long periods so they are useful standard candle by which to measure overvaluation. The SP500 price to sales is 3.2 just now. The historical average is around 1.60 depending on which measure you take. The low is 0.8. This implies a 50% drop in the SP500 from here to get back to historical average valuations and a 75% drop if we revisit historical lows. Long story short: By all the varied measures that I know of, it would take a 50% drop to reach historical average valuations and 75% drop to reach historical lows, starting from where we are today. If we see a drop in sales or GDP or earnings for example: inflation effects, tax rises, recession, wage effects, then I would expect the necessary drop in SP500 to be a few percent greater e.g. 55% rather than 50% drop.

Mentions:#CAPE#GDP

There are a couple of things going on in financial news the first one is you have people pitching their position just like you do on the internet. You have people speaking their opinion which would benefit them. Then you have people trying to figure out why something happened and assign meaning to it. Every now and then you will find useful information on the financial news. They will say something about GDP or unemployment or inflation and it sets off a little light in your brain. Then you start doing some research and put together your theory. It's pretty rare though as most of it is marketing. Thankfully it's not as bad as political marketing. That is out of control these days

Mentions:#GDP

Good talk, some financially literate dudes right there but I think they got the household net worth to GDP analysis wrong. Yes, there's enough capital there for the theoretical self-sufficiency but I don't think the chart translates to an expanding economy. It's either asset valuation increases or all households are ~~hording~~ hodling and let's be honest averages can be misleading. Middle-middle class and lower I wouldn't say is a contributing factor in this stat. I don't know what it means going further but I don't think it means expanding economy and I think it contributes to binary (have's and have not's) wealth ownership.

Mentions:#GDP

Pretty much yes you are correct. Ultimately there will have to be a deleveraging due to our debt to GDP being in the triple digits in both public and private. Policy makes just prefer to take on more debt to push that problem later in the future. If they actually allowed the capital markets to function properly they would allowed it to work on the way down just as easily as they allow it to go on the way up.

Mentions:#GDP

I think you need to have two negative GDP quarters in order for you to call it a recession. So maybe whatever was two quarters plus one day?

Mentions:#GDP

The year is 2025, TSLA has split 4 times and comprises 100% of spy. Market cap is 5x US GDP.

Mentions:#TSLA#GDP

Atlanta Fed just cut Q4 GDP forecast by 1.8%. We are all fuk

Mentions:#GDP

You can’t know if you’re in a recession until about 6 months into by definition as it requires 2 quarters of negative GDP growth to qualify as a recession. Market action has nothing to do with recession.

Mentions:#GDP

yeah bc a spending bill of almost 20% of our entire GDP surely was a good idea

Mentions:#GDP

Also different euro zone countries have massively different rate of inflation, so I've no idea how they are going to control inflation through interest rates there. For instance portugals inflation for 2021 was 2.6%, pretty close to the 2% goal. Meanwhile Polands inflation was 7.4% way off the 2% goal. So what does the EU change interest rates for and what effect will it have on countries that aren't actually seeing inflation going too high already. Not to mention such as Greece with over a 200% debt to GDP ratio and the effects it will have on that. Italy is also sitting close to 140%.

Mentions:#GDP

To my knowledge the Fed has never borrowed money. I would assume this is due to the fact that printing money is free and borrowing is not. Now if we assume that the Fed doesn’t foot the bill for Uncle Sam then we must assume the banks are then forced to essentially liquidate trillions of dollars that the Fed has put into circulation off their books. All you have to do is look at the major issues the banks have had with the overnight lending rate over the past couple years to know that they are already struggling to stay liquid. You do this and now you have created a liquidity crisis almost 3 times the size of the 08 crisis and almost all major financial institutions would collapse. Now at that point I don’t think even doubling GDP growth would save the economy.

Mentions:#GDP

How do you know the Fed will clear off its balance sheet by selling dogshit bonds with crap yields compared to current to banks??? That has no sense. Plus bond market out of liquidity cuz who gonna buy bonds knowing the Fed has to sell tons of them??? On ‘normal’ circumstances yeah ur right, but this time different. No CB has ever done such a big QE culminating with 1/4 of GDP worth balance sheet. Bond market not attractive + inflationary pressures = equity market magnet

Mentions:#CB#GDP

wat. 7% is less than the average (over 100 years) stock market return annually, lol. Or like 2 years of GDP growth. One year to destroy what took... like one or two years to build. Also it wasn't "destroyed", it was SPENT on social programs.

Mentions:#GDP

GDP Growth at start of the Depression: 1930(-8.6%), 1931(-6.5%), 1932(-11.6%), 1933(-1.3%) 2022 estimate is 4%. Last time GDP was at 4% or higher was 1997-2000. Do you know what the return for the S&P 500 was during those 3 years that ended the decade? 1997(33.36%), 1998(28.58%), 1999(21.04%) How does that all factor in to your calculation of the stock market imploding on the same level as the great depression. Do you know what actually happened during the Great Depression? Covid can't hold a candle to Influenza and the strength of the US economy is not faltering. The interest rates in this country have been around 5.48% historically and before covid. Last time inflation was 7% was in 1982 but interest rates hit an all time high of 20% in 1981. I have no idea about anything, but I would wager it is not the same situation.

Mentions:#GDP

The Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio or Shiller P/E is the inflation-adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio of the S&P 500, where the Price is the current market price and Earnings used is an average of the past ten years. There have only been two times that the CAPE Ratio has exceeded 30, with very pronounced spikes: just before the stock market crash of 1929, and the stock market crash of 2000. There are also other indicators, like the Market-to-GDP ratio, and Global Liquidity Indicators from the Bank of International Settlements, as a couple of examples, that point to a similar pattern whereby excess valuation is linked to excess liquidity and steep increases in these markers are correlated with the worst crashes in stock market history.

Mentions:#CAPE#GDP

I agree! I had this discussion with a friend three years ago before covid. The basic premise was: 1. Persistent Inflation is driven buy central banks primarily coupled with the stickiness of corporate prices for products and services over time. The purpose of any corporate executive is to increase shareholder value. 2. Supply chain inflationary pressures are generally transitory. Demand driven inflation is also transitory. 3. Price elasticity of goods or services or key to the demand/supply dynamic as well but still temporary in nature. One must ask why, the price of a gallon of gas in 2019 was higher than the price was in 1999. One must ask why wages were relatively stagnant during the same period. One must ask why the price of a home was $25,000 in 1975 but the exact house we was $250k in 2019. On a basic level, nothing has changed with the products or services provided. There will always be new innovations that have their own price points but a free market would settle those prices on its own. The main issue since 1929 is that the banks, corporations, and other financial institutions work in a delicate dance to insure persistent price increases year over year. The whole idea of persistent inflation as a framework is that if prices are always expected to rise, the consumer will continue to to purchase products and services rather than wait. This is purely artificial and a figment of people's imagination. The reverse is what central banks try to avoid (deflation). This is the expectation of lower prices which result in consumers waiting to purchase rather than purchase at the present moment. This is also a figment of imagination. Deflation, in theory, leads to wage stagnation and lower GDP. But how about stable pricing, along with less fed central bank, corporate, and government induce market friction. Supply meets demand and prices stabilize at levels that resemble 1950s or earlier. The argument for demand out striping supply due to population growth does not hold. This is illustrated in the price of oil. When Opec releases supply to match demand, prices stabilize or drop. However, these organizations are not interested in 1:1 demand supply. Nobody cares that there could be price stability at 1929 or 1950's levels or earlier due to the profit motive, creating s increasing hareholder value (not just share holder value), and central bank motivations to continue increasing prices forever (the Fed is mandated to due so at 2%). If I have a business and charge enough margin to deliver 30-40% above cost. I could charge more and people would buy but why? If I did, eventually my customer volume would slow down and I would have to lower my prices. I could also charge less, but why? If the consumers are willing to pay then I'll take what the market will allow (within reason). So we have a mechanism for market equilibrium. As these input cost and consumer prices converge, we have even more equilibrium points. There is actually a point at which nearly everything in the world could be free or very low cost if you start with the beginning of every supply chain and adjust for labor cost that is not artificially inflated due to external forces. For example, if someone was in the woods alone, they would have to find ways to eat and provide shelter. Before all of these systems were in place, items were free or low cost and the price was the time it took to hunt or build shelter. Most things are outsourced now but human behavior and needs have not changed. The need for food, clothing, shelter are basic. Communication and entertainment is also basic, along with travel. These basic things really do not cost that much. Imagine, discounting current prices of everything from today by the persistent inflation rate to 1929 is what things should be. Eve then, they were too expensive. When 2008 hit and prices of homes and everything else dropped, they moved to fair value. Same thing with the 2020 drop in the stock market...prices went back close to fair value not as close to 2008 prices but close. Yes, I agree that value creation leads to higher prices at first but our world order has systematic price increases embedded regardless of value creation. My last example is the US Copyright laws. I have copyrighted material so I'm glad the law is structured this way but it is unnecessary and provides a monopoly and perpetual near infinite rights to monetary gains for corporations that usually end up with most intellectual property (not the original creator). Prices are and always will be artificially higher than they should be and will always increase. Since we know the game, we just have to figure out where this increase is happening and jump in early to get the big wave. If you miss it, it's ok since prices always increase, your rate of increase will just be lower.

Mentions:#GDP

Unfortunately GDP growth has very little correlation to stock market returns long-term. One of the best performing international markets over the long-term is Sweden.

Mentions:#GDP

"Yeah we're Totes McGoats going to essentially raise interest on our own debt that's now more than our GDP"

Mentions:#GDP

No Reagan was the catalyst that killed the middle class: Decades of union depletion, vastly unregulated capitalism & poorly regulated capitalism resulting in recession, stagnant wages, unaffordable college tuition, and last but not least the never ending rise of cost of living. Started in the 70’s. Go look at a chart graphing GDP growth with wages. Watch how it tracks until the 70’s then just majorly diverges

Mentions:#GDP

.... This is my 3rd time writing this lol... reddit keeps quitting on me... so I'm going to try and hyper shorten what I said since the first 2 times they were long. Yes, I knew El Salvador recognized Bitcoin as legal tender, but in doing some research on this, it's more due to how their economy works, than it's belief in viability. Apparently, 20% of El Salvadors GDP comes from El Salvdorians (?) who are abroad sending money home to their families in the country. The traditional route resulted in high fees being incurred, whereas bitcoin doesn't have that issue, so more money in, and higher GDP. >Frankly, even if it was banned in my country, I could just fly to El Salvador (legal) transact from bitcoin to usd while there (legal) and take my USD home (legal). I'm not super aware of how this works, but I assume you woukd have to convert it to El Salvadors native currency, and then to USD. But regardless, you essentially reduce the pool size of crypto traders substantially, since you would have to physically transport yourself to El Salvador, which most people woukdnt be willing to do (unless their accounts are worth a good amount), and you kind of create a supply issue and devalued it a bit. Even if 100% of the people did this, if enough countries saw it as a threat (or even just a few of the big ones) they couldd force the IMF to beat El Salvador into submission and ban it. >But I’d ask you to look at inflation rates, property prices and wage stagnation (none of which are bitcoins fault) I think we're both US (I assume just since you used USD in your example), and I recognize the shortcomings of the gov in handling a lot of the economic issue, and don't think bitcoin is the cause for any of the ones you stated. It's just what we see as threats, and what a government sees as threats, are very different. Allowing for an alternative currency to be used instead of the native currency, is a big threat. I'm not saying governments are bad, or anything like that, but at the end of the day, they're going to do what's best for them, even if it's a negative for the citizens (ie with Turkey).

Mentions:#GDP

A more bearish case for China would be: Declining population + Middle income trap + Military/defense eating up a large part of GDP (and larger if they want to get more aggressive in Taiwan and the Pacific)

Mentions:#GDP

I've said it on here before but I think a ton of people would also benefit from looking at the Fed's own projections for where they see inflation, rates and GDP growth over the next year. I've seen so many people act like the Fed doesn't publish anything quantifiable on the topic or there's no rough time line on all this when there actually is and always has been.

Mentions:#GDP

Banks ridiculous profits, dividends, and top are sitting in cash that would fund the GDP of multiple nations. Seriously, fuck right off with pumping banks.

Mentions:#GDP

Largest growth? https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?most_recent_value_desc=true Demographic crisis? Aging population? Net emigration rate? Regulatory risks. What growth are you talking about? Growth in debt?

Mentions:#GDP#KD#ZG

Only call options Congresspeople should be allowed to buy is on median US GDP. They will automatically start working for the people.

Mentions:#GDP

The market has over reacted to these policies and news. 50% market drop back to 2015-2017 lows is why China's stocks are surging. When you have multiple over valued market IE S&P TSX DOW NASDAQ; China is one of the only options that actually makes sense in this environment. China has the fastest and largest GDP growth in the decade. Lower class is becoming middle and middle to upper, upper to Uber elites like the USA. Except this time there's almost 4times as many people. There's buying pressure because most know the other markets are tapped out and this market is only beginning.

Mentions:#DOW#GDP

Highest long term GDP growth potential in the EM environment

Mentions:#GDP

We grew through three things. 1. GDP Growth 2. Printing a ton of money + low interest rates 3. P/E multiple expansion The real capacity for growth in the US economy is 2-3% at this point, according to all the economist. You can juice it here and there but that’s average. Multiples are already REAL high, historically so. In all likelihood you can’t expect further multiple expansion without negative interest rates. Now we come to inflation. It forces higher interest rates and doesn’t allow for more money printing. This actually causes p/e multiple compression, bringing stock prices down. If you want to know how bad this will suck, google: Japan Lost Decade

Mentions:#GDP

They will never see. They think the current market cap of GME is 50x of Earths GDP

Mentions:#GME#GDP

> What I don't understand is why people believe Powell is credible after this obvious reversal. How is The Fed so steadfastly credible when Powell was so obviously wrong? Because economics are - largely - cyclical, and depending on where you are in the cycle, there are certain rules n regs that macroeconomic theory says you should or shouldn't do. The dude was handed a global pandemic all the while dealing with DJT actively trying to influence Fed policy. US markets suffered a momentary market drop, only to see markets more or less recover. People got to remember that we FOMC was flirting with rake hikes all through 2018 and 2019. Then March 2020 hits, [GDP drops 10% by Q2'20](https://imgur.com/a/4H9uj1k) and everybody thinks global economic fallout is imminent, since we didn't really know the severity or scope of COVID. I'd say for a guy that was handed (1) a black swan event that last happened in the early 1900's - so before '33 or '34 were passed, fuck, back when the NYSE was just a bunch of dry goods merchants trading contracts on the corner of Broad and Wall - and (2) having to deal with a president that was attempting to influence Fed policy to not raise rates, while at the same time giving the image of an independent Fed chairman, relative to the president. I don't know about you man, but I for damn sure have not performed my job perfectly 100% of the time. You're nailing Powell to a cross for......not accurately predicting economic outcomes, in the very near term, after a one-in-a-century global pandemic? That's a hard ask.

Mentions:#GDP

but public and private debt was far lower as a % of GDP back then Those rate hikes hurt the economy a lot. Now it would end the country

Mentions:#GDP

We have negative real rates already, have for a while. Inflation increases nominal GDP. I agree that they're walking the line between inflating away debt, not destroying trust in the US dollar or foreign holders of that debt, stimulating the economy etc... If GDP does not increase through actual productivity to offset these debts we big fukt

Mentions:#GDP

In 1946 there was a rapid drop of government spending (military). The GDP shrink was entirely government spending. I'm not sure you can really compare what we're seeing now to 1946 or that the Fed is running the same playbook.

Mentions:#GDP

The period that most closely resembles the current one is 1946-47. Double digit inflation, 10 year treasury at 2.2% https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-consumer-price-index-decade-commentary/inflation-cpi-consumer-price-index-1940-1949/ http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lKlMuAO0eNQ/T--W5Oukg_I/AAAAAAAABlQ/iLtmR6DWSCg/s1600/Long+Term+10+Year.png The huge difference is that in 1946 we were the only modern economy not destroyed by WW2. But I think the Fed is following the same playbook. They want relatively high CPI to try to inflate away the debt to drive debt/GDP lower. They will do this via negative real rates. At the federal level the US is on the brink of insolvency. Tax revenues now roughly equal net interest plus entitlements and Medicare. The entire discretionary budget is debt financed. That debt is increasingly being monetized by the Fed. I’m maintaining long equity exposure but all my systems trade long/short (currently about 30% short). I think the current system can sputter along for many more years but the Fed charter will be expanded. CARES act let them buy junk bonds. The next equity crash will result in authorization for the Fed to buy equity indexes. How do you all see it?

Mentions:#WW#GDP

You are assuming that they can even make it to 5% before governments go insolvent, which doesn't seem likely with the current debt to GDP leveles.

Mentions:#GDP

Ever grande had total assets valued around 300 billion US. Chinas yearly GDP is 14.72 trillion US. You must not understand how numbers work, let alone markets 🤡

Mentions:#GDP

I think some good ol' inflation would be at least one way to reduce that debt-to-GDP ratio, since there is no way in hell we are otherwise ever paying it off

Mentions:#GDP

What really drives me up a wall that in reality if we really wanted to, and had the will to as a people we could wipe out the national debt in 2 years time. We could usher in an era of prosperity afterwards that would last for centuries. But nah, instead we won’t even get our debt to GDP ratio down to 100% before blowing it back up.

Mentions:#GDP

So, "It didn't happen before, so it will never happen?" What vague thinking. It's also a logical fallacy - specifically, a non-sequitor. "It hasn't rained for the past five days, so it won't rain tomorrow - nevermind what the weather itself is doing." This is not complicated. In the 70's, the Fed killed inflation by jacking up raising rates for several years, with rates peaking at 20%. (Much of that inflation had to do with geopolitics. It doesn't particularly matter what starts the inflation cycle.) What makes today different? Inflation has been low for decades, so rates could stay low. So politicians loaded up on debt. Debt-to-GDP exceeds 100%. Now we can't raise rates without blowing up the economy. But I'm sure we can pretend that it's 1971 and everything will be fine.

Mentions:#GDP

"Don't worry about rising prices, worry about rising wages." Huh. Meanwhile, [GDP growth causes a slight rise in inflation.](https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-d61d75ae8f2b694beb7e0f8bb117a16e) though [inflation causes slight decrease in GDP](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-relationship-between-inflation-and-real-GDP) (but, note that the outlier point on the right is near 10% inflation followed by positive GDP growth, and further note that both graphs are really uncoordinated blobs and the regression lines are about as defensible as a sandcastle in a monsoon...)

Mentions:#GDP

Our debt to GDP was 100% in beginning of 2020. To contrast, Chinas was 400%. Now we’re at 125%. Where’s China at?

Mentions:#GDP

To be fair, my debt to GDP is 225%….

Mentions:#GDP

Engineers are the worst when it comes to biases. Anyway since you are a data engineer, think in first principles and not the models handed it you in text books / some other idiots. Let me remind you some basic laws of nature 1) Law of conservation of energy (i.e Energy can neither be destroyed or created). So, you sound like a hillbilly and not a data engineer when you make statements like "We will run out of energy" 2) The universe itself has infinite energy and we are only using 0.00000000000000000001% of it. The problem with you is, you are too focused on the 'geo' and the hydrocarbons part that you are missing out the incredible innovation that are happening in other areas of renewable, clean energy and storage. Let go of silver. I myself is long some mining companies like GOLD, NEM. (< 2%). I'm also not a crypto fan (again < 2%). There are amazing profitable companies around the globe that are returning capital at 25%+ rate. Do your DD and find them. Stop wasting your time on non-productive assets like Gold/Silver/Crypto For a Data Engineer, you are wasting your brain cells on Silver. In my other post, I also asked you to not worry about Debt / GDP.

Mentions:#GOLD#NEM#GDP

I honestly didnt make that up. Look at GDP chart

Mentions:#GDP

>stagnation of the economy is always a very very bad sign. Good thing we have the opposite of stagnation, with a tight labor market and a labor shortage caused by the larger boomer generation finally retiring and not being replaced by smaller subsequent generations, as well as record low unemployment figures. And real GDP is also increasing at a pretty quick rate too.

Mentions:#GDP

Stock traders remember that GDP for 2021 is probably gonna be 7% too.

Mentions:#GDP

The inflation will decrease the amount of debt to GDP. As inflation goes up tax receipts will rise also, and the debt will diminish due to the additional income, which is why they can afford to increase rates now.

Mentions:#GDP

2008 didn't have a debt to GDP ratio over 120%.

Mentions:#GDP

I wrote that it is revenue of all Shopify stores in 3Q 2021. And I say that this number is unrealistic to me. It is more than Coca-Cola and phizer combined. It is around 33% of imports from China to US in the same period (2 largest world economies). It is more than GDP of Hungary (10 mln. population developed country).

Mentions:#GDP

Good analysis and a well argued case. I don't disagree but.... A few points. **A.** Dumbed down.... "The Problem" is: 1. Debt/GDP is high, also in [US, EU, Japan & some other](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/35/Public_debt_percent_gdp_world_map.PNG) pax americanas. 2. Debt\*Rate is a sum of money that the fed (ECB, etc.) must pay. 3. Point #1 means that raising rates means spending lots of money on interest payments. 4. Paying lots of money in interest payments means debt grows even faster. 5. Paying lots of money in interest payments also means more money "in the wild," causing inflation. 6. The Fed's (ECB, etc) solution to inflation is raising rates.... vicious cycle. **B.** End games don't end the game. There is always more game. 1. There are other ways to control inflation, at least in theory. Taxes, for example. 2. Fed rates have never really been a great way of controlling inflation anyway. 3. The debt isn't really real, in some sense. If rates are set to 0% forever, that debt becomes pretty theoretical. 4. Under the current game, there's no market discipline on interest rates. The Fed can do what it wants, including 0%. Medium-Long term, changing the rules of the game is probably inevitable. Debt/GDP will continue to rise, just like Japan. We've been playing this game for 40-50 years... ish. It's reached an endpoint. New game soon. My guess is that the new game means dropping rates as an inflation control. It might mean just accepting inflation. Maybe the print dollars and convert all securities to non yielding deposits. That's a reset button. Debt/GDP goes back to 0 and we can play the game again. Maybe they just declare 0-interest forever, and there's no difference between dollars and dollar securities. Yes, the Fed is in a trap. But, it's a trap they built and they also have the keys. The trick is guessing how and when they break out of the trap. They'll not stay in the trap forever voluntarily.

Mentions:#GDP

It’s a bit of both. Some supply side pressures should ease with the post-holiday slump in demand; next month’s readings could be where the drop begins. And with American Rescue Plan money dried up and the debt-to-GDP ratio currently on a prolonged decline, it’s highly unlikely we see 5-7% inflation on a YoY basis throughout 2022. Especially since this year’s numbers will be based on how inflation changes compared to 2021, as opposed to the sub-2% inflation of 2020 that last year’s numbers were based on

Mentions:#GDP

Every person in this country pays a marginal tax rate on every extra dollar they earn/profit. Inflation means US Gov will also getting a lot of extra tax dollars, which can easily overcome the extra interest they have to pay. Bottomline, people who scream Debt / GDP and inflation hasn't really thought through their analysis. Oh also Debt / GDP ratio also goes by **nominal** dollars. Inflation is always beneficial for debt holders and this time it's no different. Having said that, I agree with your thesis that Fed may go at the most 1.5%, that's because the inflation will come down pretty quickly this year and we are already seeing some slow growth

Mentions:#GDP

Yes, this is the point. Almost nobody actually paid the top tax rate because it was pointless to make that much money. This is not the counter argument you think it is. The overall revenue may of been similar compared to GDP, but the sources were not. 1960 Tax Revenue Sources: Income Tax - 44% Compare Income Tax - 23.2% Social Insurance/Retirement Receipts - 15.9% (Mostly Social Security and Medicare) Excise Taxes - 12.6% Other - 4.2% 2018 Tax Revenue Estimates: Income Tax - 49.8% Compare Income Tax - 11.3% Social Insurance/Retirement Receipts - 32.9% (Mostly Social Security and Medicare) Excise Taxes - 3.1% Other - 3.6% The main problem here is the changes in corporate taxes and social insurance taxes. Tax cuts to corporations is the same as giving a tax cut to the ultra wealthy that actually own these companies. It does not result in higher wages, lower prices, or anything of the sort. In 1960 the top 1% earned 9% of all income and paid 13% of taxes. In 2008 the top 1% earned 20% and paid 38%. On the surface it seems like they’re paying more, but when you compare it to their share of total wealth now and then it’s not even close. This has gotten especially bad in the last 10 years as the top 10% and top 1% continue to own more and more of the total wealth at an accelerating rate. This all stems back to changes in tax and fiscal policy from the Reagan that were *intended* to shrink the middle class as the ruling class got scared. It worked, the middle class started shrinking and the ultra wealthy ruling class got back the wealth (but more importantly the power this brings) that they had been losing. Except this *never stopped*. These same policies are still being implemented today and the middle class is near nonexistent and wealth inequality is at all time historical highs for pretty much all of history anywhere. As for social insurance taxes this is primarily borne by the working class. The biggest part of this is social security and the rest is Medicare. Social security is 6.2 of earnings matched by employers for an effective total of 12.4% of income. Medicare is the same way for a total of 2.9% of income. The problem is that the tax for social security has an income cap. Only up to $127,000 (top 10% of individual incomes) can be taxed for social security. This means that once you start going above the top 10% of income you pay a lower tax rate. Which is regressive and kind of defeats the point of SS in the first place. After WW2 the US implemented extremely progressive tax, economic, and fiscal policy. This combined with the economic boom of the rest of the world having their industrial sector blown up and relying on the US led to the middle class growing at an incredible rate. It was the single best time and place for the working class in history. The civil rights movement, anti-war movement, environmental movement, and other social movements of the 50s, 60s, and 70s were all born out of the rising wealth and expectations of the middle class after WW2. This sudden shift in power dynamic between the ruling class and the working class did not go over well with the ruling class and conservatives. They were terrified and losing the power they had held since basically forever. We saw the results of this with Reaganomics, which was just an attack on the working class. The ruling class had worked hard to spread the idea that the middle class getting to big would lead to social instability and eventual societal collapse. This was not a new concept and was already a many decades old thing. It’s full of fallacies and had already been disproven many times at this point. The efforts of the ruling class came to fruition in 1980 when conservatives took back power for the first time in close to 40 years. Ever since then the only goal of the right wing has been to destroy the middle class and push the working class back down. They succeeded and wealth inequality trends started to reverse and start rising again. Except whoops, we went past where we were before. But it’s too late, the left wing in America has already been destroyed and neither party has any interest in stopping rising wealth inequality or rebuilding the middle class. All they really disagree on how fast they want wealth inequality to continue rising. We’re facing down the barrel of a gun. Rising wealth inequality is unsustainable, it will inevitably result in some kind of economic and or societal collapse as it has historically. The greed of corporations and the ultra wealthy is what lead us to our current situation of nonexistent interest rates and huge debts everywhere, both national and personal. They will never stop the party of their own will for the sake of everyone else. They’ll lead us up the hill and then right off the cliff as the markets collapse. This is the exact same road the same class of people lead us on in the 20s resulting in the 1929 stock market collapse and the Great Depression. At this point a market and economic crash are more or less inevitable. The only question is which straw will finally break the camels back. We’ve got rising domestic instability and political violence, the a resurgence of fascism globally, ballooning debts, out of control inflation, rising international tensions between the West and everyone else, climate change, and probably other shit I’m forgetting. If we had a political party in the US that had any interest in actually solving problems then we might have a chance to course correct. Personally I don’t see us making it to 2040 before this happens. Unless you have an underground bunker city to run away to nobody can avoid it. The world is too interconnected nowadays, and the US is just a big enough domino to bring everyone else down with it. Economic collapse, the largest economy, fascism (mostly the xenophobia and ultra-nationalism part), and the worlds greatest military by a long stretch all in the same country is not a good recipe for the world.

Mentions:#GDP#WW

The bond market is more powerful than the Fed ultimately. If the bond market strongly thinks interest rates should be at 5%, then they will. The Fed’s only choice at that point is whether or not to bankrupt itself trying to stave off the inevitable. The higher the US debt and deficit to GDP ratios, the more likely this turn of events occurs.

Mentions:#GDP

First of all let’s address inflation currently we’re experiencing stagflation where demand outpaces supply this is due to pussies scared of covid and so the there are bottle necks in the supply chain which means there are less things being produced than people wanting to buy them that causes demand push inflation so actual inflation is lower than what we’re currently seeing as j pow has described a hundred times how will it pan out in the coming quarters we’ll we don’t know because it’s all dependent on how our suppliers decide to continue on with covid basically if all covid regulations and fear came to a complete halt tomorrow then supply would very quickly catch up to demand and inflation would deflate quickly to regular levels next how stupid do you have to be to think institutions have any interest in propping up companies their whole objective is to see a return so why would they be burning money? Next the whole reason for rate hikes is because liquidity is returning to normal levels when covid hit the fed dropped window lending to close to 0 levels and boosted quantitive easing to make sure the market doesn’t come to complete halt with people stoping spending and business loosing credit now that unemployment has hit 3.9% supply chain bottle necks are starting to clear up the fed can start increasing rates because economic activity is returning to normal and they don’t have to worry about the banks or the public running out of money and the economy coming to a halt causing a recession which by the way is one of the only two things that could kill out snp bull run now to address why “institutions are propping up the market “- they’re not with all the factors I just listed GDP will hit ath and so will corporate revenue not just that but these large businesses all have massive earnings coming up and soon it will be a race to who can get the cheapest shares then you’ll have panic buying everyone afraid they’ll miss the window for a profitable buy and if you would look at these companies you’d know that they’re fairly valued - undervalued by every valuation standard EV/EBITDA P/E intrinsic not to even take into consideration that most of these big tech companies gross profit is growing at 15%-20% annually meaning in speculation buying shares rn would have a huge profit In the future. So yeah you asked if you have spy puts you may profit tomorrow no one can predict the market day to day but if you hold them you’ll get absolutely fucked within the next two weeks you’re welcome dumbass go read some books and 10Q/10ks

Mentions:#GDP

Well post 2008 kind of adds to my point, that the Fed adding liquidity is the primary driver of S&P 500 returns. We've had 10 years of historically outsized returns. The correlation between the market and the Fed's balance sheet is stronger than with rates or GDP growth or basically any other economic factors. We're gonna get double digit PPI here in the next couple months. Feds gonna have to dump bonds for the first time in a very long time.

Mentions:#GDP

That’s been my bull thesis for the last few months. Some percentage of headline/core inflation is transitory, maybe half of it, and that inflation itself is global. The US is well-positioned to receive less of a blow on this: output and employment metrics remain strong, and stagflation hypotheses remain fruitless against rising wages and early boomer resignations. I do think it’s going to take several more months for a clearer picture to emerge and it’s heavily contingent on adjacent covid factors, but I think the biggest bottleneck moving forward for GDP growth will be labor markets, which are currently under squeeze. But hiring shortfalls are the literal definition of a “good problem”. Steady communication and stability alongside a bond market that will take *years* to recover are good arguments for equities markets to keep growing, despite volatility.

Mentions:#GDP

Yes I'm bearish but we're not gonna go down all at once. Markets still in an uptrend and so there will be buyers for the time being. Once we're in a world with 5% rates, 5% inflation and 2% nominal GDP growth the market will be acting differently

Mentions:#GDP

Inflation will be huge in next coming years...... Right now our debt to GDP ratio has almost touched 140%.......

Mentions:#GDP

Wtf is this shit? Literally anyone can get hotter chick than that one. And he is literally worth more than most countries GDP...

Mentions:#GDP

Yeah we should have been hiking while we had 6% GDP growth

Mentions:#GDP

Today, in support of these goals, the Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates near zero and updated its assessment of the progress that the economy has made toward the criteria specified in the Committee’s forward guidance for interest rates. In addition, in light of the strengthening labor market and elevated inflation pressures, we decided to speed up the reductions in our asset purchases. As I will explain, economic developments and changes in the outlook warrant this evolution of monetary policy, which will continue to provide appropriate support for the economy. Economic activity is on track to expand at a robust pace this year, reflecting progress on vaccinations and the reopening of the economy. Aggregate demand remains very strong, buoyed by fiscal and monetary policy support and the healthy financial positions of households and businesses. The rise in COVID cases in recent weeks, along with the emergence of the Omicron variant, pose[s] risks to the outlook. Notwithstanding the effects of the virus and supply constraints, FOMC participants continue to foresee rapid growth. As shown in our Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the median projection for real GDP growth stands at 5.5 percent this year and 4 percent next year. Amid improving labor market conditions and very strong demand for workers, the economy has been making rapid progress toward maximum employment. Job gains have been solid in recent months, averaging 378,000 per month over the last three months.

Mentions:#GDP

China could solve their economic recession by legalizing prostitution. ez GDP boost

Mentions:#GDP

What QE does is basically swaps long dates securities (bonds) with short dated securities (bank reserves). This reduces the supply of bonds which pushes down the yield because they have an inverse relationship, this makes borrowing money a lot easier for both consumers and corporations. Remeber Europe's economy is largely finance, touism and fashion and automotive based, not as tech based like the United States, there aren't quite as many growth companies in Europe like in the United States, so the process of QE which pushes down long term rates isn't as beneficial to European companies. It's also important to note that almost every economy in Europe has stagnated since 2008, you look at the GDP of the big three, Germany, France and UK theve all stagnated since 2008, this combined with low birth rates and taking a while to get imigrants fully intergrated into the economy aren't helping European stocks.

Mentions:#GDP

The only justification she had for Tesla's stock price is her own crockpot theories. What ridiculous number has she put on Tesla now? Something that puts it over half the entire US GDP?

Mentions:#GDP

The best way to apporach this is to adjust rate as we read economic data, labor participation, GDP, unemployment rate, corp earning, corporate debt level, U.S. treasury health to pay interest rate payment. Jpow just issued some dovish statements just now and sort of calmed the market a bit. We will hear him more tomorrow, and CPI data on wednesday. I dont have the answer, but clapping the stock market is not the correct way to reduce inflation and can have a long lasting consequences such as slow down in hiring, less innovation, more inflation due to cut back in hiring and investing back to the business.

Mentions:#GDP

Could be good for the next 3-6 months earnings and GDP figures. After that though, we might be fucked

Mentions:#GDP

Denmark's Debt/GDP ratio is like 0.42. America's is 1.28. There is a big difference there in how fucked the currency is

Mentions:#GDP

GDP Episode 359 will fix that

Mentions:#GDP

Did you make this comment without doing any research whatsoever? US had pos GDP growth every single year in that time-frame except 08,09. And who gives a shit about GME and AMC they're meme stock nonsense.

Mentions:#GDP#GME#AMC

if real GDP doesn't grow in those 12 years, you absolutely can expect to not have a rebound despite zero growth. stock growth requires GDP Growth, no matter what individual stock explosions in 2020 and/or 2021 seem to suggest. without GDP and real income growth, the market does not stay up very long and will pull back. amc and gme avoided the requirement of income growth for awhile but they are now falling back to earth along with all of the other growth stocks that have yet to show growth in the present vs. future

Mentions:#GDP

Inflation adjusted GDP is lower now than in 2019. So the country is poorer after the 8 Trillion spent. There is not another 8 Trillion coming. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ND000334Q

Mentions:#GDP

Not yet. recession: a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. I betcha consumer spending this quarter goes down the shitter though. We'll see if it's enough.

Mentions:#GDP

Look like debt vs GDP as well

Mentions:#GDP

Gamestop could absolutely turn around. They seem to have a good team in place. I'm actually rooting for them. If they execute really well and catch a few breaks, they may even be able to justify a $100-$200 share price in a few years. If turn-around was what apes actually cared about, they might be admirable. Most apes only care about a GME turnaround as a trigger for MOASS (which is where the bullshit cult aspects comes in). Successful corporate pivots are not unheard of. They happen fairly regularly. A single retailer becoming more valuable than the US GDP, because the whole system is colluding against it? that's a bit harder to swallow.

Mentions:#GME#GDP