GLP

DeezDogz13

Compounding GLP-1s is the misconception around this company. Everyone stop some focusing on that alone, look at their product mix, realize how undervalued this company is…

Intrepid_Witness_144

U.S. taxpayers, through federal research grants, funded approximately 6.2 billion of the foundational research for GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic between 1980 and 2024. While manufacturer Novo Nordisk invested heavily in final development, this massive public investment supported key scientific, biological, and metabolic studies necessary for the drug's creation

Jamnitrix

Drugs cost a lot to make and EU has laws to make them cheaper, so they have to get their money from the US. If companies had to sell at EU prices here, they wouldnt spend the R&D costs to make new drugs, and everyone would make GLP's. Its all about the shareholders.. there has to be a better way

Inevitable_Pin7755

This is a pretty interesting development. Hims basically gets distribution and credibility by working with Novo, while Novo gets access to a huge online customer base that already uses Hims for telehealth. The big question is whether this becomes a long term partnership or just a temporary truce after the legal fight. If weight loss drugs keep exploding in demand, platforms like Hims could become a major distribution channel. I’ve been following this whole GLP-1 trend and writing about the business side of it in my newsletter too because it’s turning into one of the biggest healthcare markets right now. If anyone’s curious it’s linked in my profile.

Smur_

I disagree, I think the reason it's down is due to an overreaction from people treating it at a pure GLP-1 stock. It has millions of subscribers and strong fundamentals but has been beaten down because people want to gamble. I think this news will ease the fear and allow some people to think critically about it

dinoplum

It's likely they'll price the GLP1's at the same discounted rate you can already get through NovoCare direct, Costco, GoodRX, etc. Their whole edge was stealing market share by undercutting pricing with a compounded product. You don't see big margins selling commercial GLP1s. Without any advantage in pricing I don't see people running to sign up. There might be a small bump Monday, but don't expect it to sustain.

External_Pattern9950

this is smart for both sides. novo gets distribution to the cash pay market they were never going to capture through traditional pharma channels. hims gets to sell the real thing instead of compounded versions that were always going to be a legal headache. the losers here are the compounding pharmacies that were riding the shortage loophole. wonder how fast the FDA moves to shut down the compounded GLP-1 market now that there is no supply argument left.

Hellmale

GLP-1 is making my vision blurry 🙁

small_dogs_rock

NOVO dropped the price of it's new pill version of GLP-1, and if so, it needs some way to sell more, for less.

Fit-Army7395

Interesting distribution angle for Novo. If Hims becomes a channel for GLP-1 demand, the real question is whether this expands the market or just shifts customers from traditional pharmacies.

RevansGambit

WHAT??? bro, what are you doing? there was no ruling on the GLP-1. the lawsuit was just filed in February. AND, the lawsuit just dissolved because NVO made an agreement to sell their drugs on the HIMS platform, hence, the run-up in the last hour. it's not a short squeeze. maybe there could be one on Monday, but every run isn't a squeeze. your response is shockingly uninformed if what you stated above is the gist of your "RESEARCHED" thesis.

SJWBeatsTheMarket

There is 40% short interest because the their GLP-1 offered was ruled against for patent infringement. Therefore they cannot sell GLP-1’s anymore. Many people took short positions on th company because of this but that was only a small part of their business and they are profitable. We can buy the stock and wait out the short sellers pretty easy on this one

FreedominMaine

partnering with NVO to sell GLP-1s effectively ending the feud and destroying the bear thesis. Also, 40% short interest means covering come Monday will be difficult.

Weak_Ostrich459

NOVO and HIMS ending feud, will work together to "fight obesity", i think theyre going to work together to bring back their GLP-1 drugs since NOVO has been slipping in that market

Weak_Ostrich459

HIMS and NOVO ending their feud and going to work together to fight obesity, im suspecting they gonna be using GLP-1 together

Yorokobi_to_itami

Look at it this way,  without groceries now you won't need that GLP-1 medication. Black rock just wants to get you beach body ready 😉

newtothelyte

So, everything is an estimate, that undoubtedly will get readjusted. Yet, markets overreact on fuzzy useless data? What the fuck kind of system is this? No wonder all the finance guys are on a litany of Zyn, peptides, and GLP-1

Plappedudel

GLP-1 agonists are literally free money. People can't quit them for the rest of their lives. Like a healthy version of opiates

Overall-Fold-9720

>Finding out people return to their baseline weight 1.5 years after ceasing GLP-1 medications and all other health benefits are also lost. "When you go back to eating 20k calories/day without the magic juice, you get fat" Don't laugh, you likely pay for those clowns salaries

ikasey24

I think I’m starting to develop a chubby fetish since every middle-aged woman who wasn’t skinny is now overdosed on GLP-1’s. BTW — you can easily tell who’s on it

borat_he_like_you

Jesus spent 40 days fasting in the desert And ya'll need to spend all that money on GLP-1 drugs to lose weight Tsk Tsk you fucking piggy 🐷 🐽

HotTruth999

Both do not cause the same side effects. Novo is GLP-1 only. As a result it has to use more GLP-1 than Zepbound for worse outcomes and much more severe side effects . Zepbound uses GLP-1 and GIP. Because it has two active drugs it can use less GLP-1 and still have a better outcome. It’s the GLP-1 that is the side effect problem. No one is going to suffer in silence just to save a few dollars. It’s just not worth it. The analogy of living in discomfort for years is just like having less features on a phone is crazy. Apples and oranges.

OpeDefinitely

im starving right now but I'm too lazy to go upstairs for food. instead of stress eat, I stress caffeinate & then lose my appetite I'd probably waste away if I took a GLP-1

OpeDefinitely

there was a period where I had to keep telling you fuckers that Lilly makes better GLP-1s than Novo, and all those comments I made during that time had led me to get ads for GLP-1s. i'm not even close to fat. fffff

sailorsmile

The stock market is eating McDonalds and taking GLP-1s?

GuyFieriFrostedTips

Stopped drinking yesterday. Indefinitely. I worked out for the first time in ages today. Also got prescribed a GLP-1. Took a “before” just for myself but i can see the vain allure of posting. In other news, i started using Medicated Goldbond again and my god do my nuts burn…

iThinkiStartedATrend

I have to make sure we offer room and board to our fast food workers. Without them my GLP-1 drugs would be worthless

Lanky-Top-1861

I don’t think they target the same audience. One is for chronically ill people and those who can’t take care of themselves, and the other is for people who *want* to be healthy (and aren’t chronically ill). Since I’d say the majority can’t stick to clean eating and basic activity, GLP-1s will capture a good chunk of the market. The protein market is kind of dumb, but people buy it because it *looks* healthy.

GordonGreko

I first started adding heavily in August after the massive drop post earnings and since then I have made it the no1 position on my portfolio (around 13k shares), with an average cost basis of 4. Sitting in big losses atm, while, paradoxically, the envisioned catalysts have played out (lowering of GLP-1 prices, massive oral GLP1 launch, crackdown on compounders) . Looking for a strong guidance and an overall rerating of telehealth and speculative assets that will turn the position into green and hopefully handsomely profitable. Imho the company has been penalised by both industry concerns, assets class concerns and idiosyncratic concerns (missed guidance multiple times, accounting reconciliations, lawsuits etc) so investors have adopted now a super conservative“show me” approach. Lets hope that they guide strong for 2026 and we get some profit FINALLY

dahman33

Maybe it’s because everyone is in the GLP1 Pills 💊 and injections they’ve become so thin and they’ve vanished into thin air

PandaCalves

A few tickers for you to consider; most are "value" from a "I think the Friday close was a reasonable entry point" rather than low P/E or small-cap value but, FWIW, I have positions in all of the below. - LUMN - Lumen Technologies. Enterprise fiber (legacy phone line provider) that I think/hope is on a successful turnaround path. I first entered <$2 a few years ago and had been trimming a large position...but I picked up more when they dipped following earnings earlier in the month. I think this is a $10-15 stock in 2026. - HEI, Heico Corp. Aerospace/defense component provider that unexpectedly dipped following an earnings beat last week. Heico makes the components that keeps the Air Force/Navy flying, and I think they're going to continue to run with all of the military deployment activity. Every hour of flight time eventually translates to revenue for HEi. -TXT, Textron. Industrial/Aviation conglomerate (best known brands include Cessna and Bell) with a very interesting defense business; I particularly like what they're doing with drones. P/E still under 20. - VEU, Vanguard ETF- all World not including US. This (plus a ton of commodities) is my play on the US debasement trade. I also have EWJ (Japan), FLKR (South Korea), AFK (Africa), and EPU (Peru) as specific country/region ETFs. - NVO, Novo Nordisk. Huge growth as the first GLP-1 provider...I think they're oversold now as the market is afraid of competition. This is a recent entry for me; they're now at pre-GLP 1 prices, with a P/E ~10. All that said, I think value is hard to find right now...but the current volatility makes for a lucrative (but risky) environment for swing trading.

Shobed

People on GLP’s need to focus on making protein a higher percentage of daily intake. More people will be seeking out protein bars, shakes, and snacks that are low calorie and high protein.

XRayZen84

It's a very hypothetical "could happen" in the future sort of thing... "As GLP-1 medications for weight loss become accessible to more Americans, they are expected to have a slimming down effect on society. The implication for airlines is lower fuel consumption and therefore cost savings, a recent analysis from Jefferies Research Services shows."

Atraidis

I've been interested in airlines in general after reading that GLP1's are saving airlines hundreds of millions in fuel costs

This_Salt7080

Dude you are not understanding what I am saying. For obese people with no other options, it is a positive thing. That is who the drug is for. However a MASSIVE part of GLP1 users ARE NOT obese and are abusing these drugs

throwingitanyway

we'll just nationalize the GLP1 industry and force-inject that shit to everyone with a BMI above 25

MeYouThemEveryone

Hmm.. with all this talk of wanting to avoid getting drafted and the generalisation of Americans being fat, I can see less people wanting to buy GLP-1 medication so they can avoid the risk of being drafted, so I should short LLY. Then calls on LLY after the draft as women look for new boyfriends and husbands.

HardlyDecent

What on earth do weight loss drugs have to do with weight gaining supplements--or more importantly specific stocks? For the record, there's no such thing as "healthy" snacking, and widespread nutrition illiteracy is on display in your conflation with protein with healthy. The only thing that matters for weight loss/gain is energy balance. Take GLP1 drugs and you'll eat less, period. Eat protein (or carbs or fat or alcohol...) after you've hit your maintenance calories and you'll gain weight, period.

Feltzinclasp5

If there's one industry that GLP1 could potentially upset, that last one I'd be worried about is protein snacks lmao

OkJelly7192

McDonalds is the true Ozempics powerplay, if this GLP stuff truly works, McDonalds only downside (health) will be completely eradicated. McDonalds consumption would increase by multiples, ultimately putting McDonald's at 5+ trillion market cap by 2030

charon-

Completely fair, but obesity is a serious health epidemic. A cure for obesity, or a food addiction - and studies have shown that GLP1 curbs addiction in general - is a miracle drug. However, it’s up to the person to take the medication but the responsibility to be better outside of it is on them. It is messed up though, but the potential is still there for further development and application of the drug in other ways.

CakeEater_8

I don’t think the GLP-1 in itself is going to influence that type of behavior modification, it’s just going to surprises the desire to eat, or the “food noise” many people who struggle with habitual over eating describe experiencing. Some/many will make those behavioral changes like adopting healthy eating habits and exercise, but I think the theory behind OPs approach is that the increase in GLP-1 utilizers leads to less units sold, overall.

DadGoblin

FYI - There is no good evidence that eating high protein foods prevents the loss of muscle mass associated with weight loss. I think you are giving bad advice to your GLP patients. Sometimes I see young dudes with fecal impactions on GLPs because their PCPs told them to increase protein in their diet. And, then they basically only eat protein since after forcing themselves to eat protein, they're not hungry for anything else. I'll also add that eating vegetables and fruits reduces the risk of strokes and heart attacks independent of weight. If you want to advise patients in their diets, Harvard Public Health has some good EBM reading you should be doing

VoidAndOcean

its not down enough, it only went up from $7 because of GLP1 that they cant' now legally sell. should go back up to $7/adjusted for inflation

Direct-Protection-81

Oh you’re new to investing right? Snapchat a failing company with a minimal value demographic and no moat. Hims absolutely crashing to the floor, it’s only a resell company of pre patented compounds. Get out while you can. Novo too big to fail? Eli Lilly is just about to release their third generation GLP1, novo is just a 2nd rate copy cat of Eli Lilly.

ohgodthehorror95

Novo's upper management has proven to be so hopelessly incompetent that I'd hesitate buying *even if* they had the superior GLP. Because even then, I wouldn't be surprised if they screw it up some how.

mtnrnnr802

GLP-1 doesn’t work for you and it shows

ReceptionSmall9941

The demand mix may shift, but a blanket “protein snacks get destroyed” thesis feels too simplistic if GLP-1 users are also being pushed toward higher protein intake. No position.

Savings_Refuse_5922

real big brains just get their GLP-1's from the grey market labs with actual testing. Reta already on market and all other GLP-1's for pennies on the dollar. All these companies are buying the API's in bulk and having them tested with mas spec/gas chromatography for purity and then packaging them up into their vials for 500%+ markups and it's still leagues cheaper than anything discounted. ie. I can get 10mg of Wegovy for $80CAD. Tirzepetide for $60. Or you can get Reta and use it without having to wait another year.

Decent-Photograph391

I’ve been doing intermittent fasting and lost 30lbs in 6 months. One of the things I researched is allulose. It’s a rare sugar found in minute quantities in certain fruits, although it can also be synthesized from corn, and the stuff is like $10 for a 1lb bag. Other than being a cane sugar substitute, it also naturally induces your body to release your own GLP-1, and it does so WITHOUT risking muscle loss. Anecdotally, when I consume two teaspoons of allulose with my tea, I completely lose my appetite shortly after. I simply don’t feel like eating anything. So I know it’s working like medical research says it would. Will allulose threaten the sales of GLP-1 drugs? Not likely, given how powerful big pharma is, but it’s something to keep in mind.

Arepas4vida

The triple acting GLP -1's in both pipelines are so close in weight loss and side effects It really doesn't matter, Novo stock price offers a better risk reward. Novo is a solid company. They're not going anywhere. Eli is priced to perfection already

Arepas4vida

Novo's triple acting GLP-1 called UBT251( they will rename this eventually) showed 19.7% loss @ 24 weeks vs Reta 17.5% @ 24 weeks. So I wouldn't call Eli's triple acting better. As with other competing GLP-1 's between Novo and Eli weight loss percentages are so close It doesn't really matter, what matters is how well each is tolerated, side effects, etc... with Novo's beaten down stock price the risk reward is better imo. Novo has been around for a long time. It's not going anywhere and plenty of fat people. Eli's stock is already priced to perfection.

GladPin1791

Rumor heard- Hims & Hers has secured authorized GLP-1 supply through a strategic pharmaceutical partnership. Just like Ro and the Wegovy deal

SuperGoodRookies

Every person I know, myself included, that has taken semaglutide has had some nasty side effects. Especially as you progress to the higher doses. Tirzepatide, while still having side effects, doesn’t have the worst ones that are present in semaglutide. I pay $30 more a month to get compounded tirzepatide than semaglutide would cost, and it’s worth every penny. LLY’s retatrutide is going to blow both drugs out of the water. It’s a triple agonist (GLP-1/GIP/Glucagon) in late stage 3 trials, expected to be commercially available late 2026 or early 2027. While NVO does have a triple agonist (UBT251) in its pipeline, it’s much earlier in development, and early results show nowhere near the effectiveness of retatrutide. The only real competition in the triple agonist race, at this point, is HM15211, developed by Korea’s Hanmi Pharmaceutical. But that drug is in Phase 2, just like NVO’s UBT251. So, it’s realistically 3 years away from being commercially available. Retatrutide concluded Phase 2 in June 2023, just for reference. The addition of a glucagon receptor agonist is a game changer. It promotes the breakdown of stored fat and increases energy expenditure (fat burn). The huge benefit is that you maintain more muscle mass as you lose weight. A huge issue for GLP users has been muscle loss, since your body uses whatever is the most readily available source of energy, which includes breaking down muscle alongside fat stores. Glucagon agonists help with that problem, providing more fat stores to use instead of muscle. LLY is going to have years of being the only company to offer this kind of drug (unless you want to chance going to the grey market).

Lucid_Chemist

With these direct patient pricing on GLP1s of $350 it’ll be interesting to see if Medicare does what it usually does and demands the same price. If so their profit margin is dropping like a rock.

gamjatang111

They actually have a lot of good calls, GLP boom, SNDK STX last summer, short blue owl etc

Savings_Refuse_5922

I never said it wasn't and none of the GLP-1's are really at that stage yet. Reta is more about less side effects, same or better results not time. If anything Novo's drug I mentioned in their pipeline's specifically only advantage is speed of weight loss which is 12 weeks which is why I said Novo has an inferior current product and future product pipeline.

Savings_Refuse_5922

? no it's not they are two different drugs, Wegovy is just the renamed Semaglutide that is specifically marketed as a weight loss drug, it was previously marketed to diabetics. Mounjaro is Terzepetide. Wegovy is just a GLP-1 while Mounjaro is GLP-1 + GIP.

Puzzleheaded-Net-273

GLP-1's are covered for those with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. That's lot of overweight people. The sales price of my 3 businesses is based on the EBITA of each. One will be sold for inventory, machinery only and closed. In the years that we did not take the low-ball offers, the business is now worth~ 2 million more. My SS belongs to me and my wife. It will give us a more comfortable retirement for future healthcare and aging concerns, more travel opportunities as well as preserving money for our 3 adult children/heirs.

RDjax

Two different industries. Higher returns in the GLP-1 vs. food snack stock. For that industry consider Cheesecake, CAVA, CMG.

slimyshade

Speaking from another GLP, yes there are side effects (interrupted sleep, nausea/constipation, skin sensitivity are my 3) but it outweighs the effects of living an unhealthy life imo

dvdmovie1

There does tend to be more consumption of protein with GLP-1; look at protein/protein shakes as a topic on r/ozempic, for example. The problem with that is that it doesn't guarantee investment success with a specific name/brand. Look at BRBR down 70% off the high.

Automatic_Vast_1858

Protein snacking is not solely consumed by GLP1 users

jigmaster500

People on GLP-1's continue eat crap food.. Just a lot less... They lose weight because they eat fewer calories

Sea_Bear7754

Ah see you’re looking at GLP-1 which is going to be effectively obsolete once retatrutide gets approved. First to get retatrutide wins.

platinumarks

Also, you can barely feel the injection, and it comes in an auto-injector. I use one of the GLP-1s for my diabetes, and most of the time when it injects, I feel nothing. Just hold it up to the skin, push the plunger, and two seconds later I'm done.

---Right--Tackle---

Imagine being so weak willed that you are open about taking GLP1s because you too weak to shut your 🥧 🕳️ and go to the gym

Savings_Refuse_5922

Lily also has their own pill they just weren't first to market. You can see my other post in a Novo thread on this and why I don't think Novo is a value buy but a value trap right now. Novo really only has one relatively close new one and all it does is make people lose weight faster (12 weeks) nothing world shattering at all. Lily also gonna drop the Retratutide hammer next year too while already having the better current GLP-1 injection on market right now. I don't see the upside when looking at Novo but I haven't done a serious deep dive.

but_i_dont_reddit

If you have the 'work til you die' mentality - good for you, then SS withdrawal doesn't matter. If you have any medical condition that qualifies you for GLP1 on medicaid - sorry, you ain't makin' it to 90, especially on medicaid health care.

JThor15

Long term steroids would eventually reverse everything you’re trying to accomplish with the GLP1.

wes714

Hims discloses SEC probe as its legal woes mountHims & HersHIMS $15.92 (2.64%) said that it is under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission, adding another legal challenge for the telehealth company. The SEC requested that it preserve records related to its compounded GLP-1 treatments, Hims disclosed in a regulatory filing on Monday. The news came after the company reported earnings results and gave soft full-year guidance. Shares extended losses to down more than 8% in postmarket trading after the 10-K, which detailed this probe, was released. Hims is already facing a patent infringement lawsuit from Novo NordiskNVO $38.68 (-2.40%) and a potential probe from the Department of Justice. Both arose after Hims released (and then discontinued) a copy of Novo’s Wegovy pill.

nclakelandmusic

They still have a currently wide economic moat due to their insulin business. One could argue that their own pipeline and competition intends on cutting into it, but people still will need insulin regardless of GLP-1. This isn't an early stage pharma company. Their debt is large, but manageable, and their margins are as of now not being heavily compressed.

Puzzleheaded-Net-273

Got plenty of money myself. Will file at age 70 to take advantage of the maximum benefit of $5181.00 a month. I am still working at age 69 and am in the process of selling 2/3 businesses that I co-own with my brother and selling off the assests of a 3rd. And yes, Medicare covers GLP-1's for type 2 diabetes and patients with cardiovascular disease already.

WarEaglePrime

Novo cutting GLP prices by half

Aware_Stable

They could have offered the same mix that everyone else is offering to stay in the game. Fifty410 Refills Pomhealth ect. They are all offering GLP-1s mixed with a “booster” Not to mention hims seems to be hesitant about offering tirze which is better a lot of cases

ihopethisworksfornow

Way more Americans are buying cigarettes and coffee than GLP and therapy sessions

Cold_Respond_7656

They’d probably say the same to Americans except substitute cigarettes and coffee with Therapy and GLP

Suspicious_War_8873

I use GLP1 to diversify my portfolio; i know a bit about this stock. Im long too but i 100% expect this stock to go down this year. Just a FYI - yes they have their wieghtloss drugs but the price is down significantly in their own guidance the year revenue is down and next year too is not really up much; they went from growing insanely to basically flat; their PE reflects that so theres not a MASSIVE downside risk i think but i dont see this going anywhere for a while. like i said its mainly a diversifier and i am long on GLP1 in general and i just felt like lily is WAY to fucking expensive. but just my two cents if you're holding for the bounce; it will probably happen; pfizer (which is a total ass company) has a better PE than NVO

theykeepbanningmebro

(Me) this is a bad trade. You’re buying weekly OTM calls that need a 25%+ move in one session on a stock that’s down 52% YTD, facing active litigation from Novo Nordisk, FDA scrutiny, and where analyst EPS estimates can’t even agree with each other — ranging from $0.02 to $0.19. The short interest cuts both ways too; those shorts might be right. You’re paying premium for a lottery ticket that expires in 4 days. Even if they beat, the GLP-1 guidance uncertainty alone could cap the upside and leave you holding worthless contracts by Friday. How much did you put into this?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Savings_Refuse_5922

As with all GLP-1's I see a lot of people quit them and the food noise returns and they regain weight. A lot of people do make lifestyle changes and learn to change their previous ways but if I was a betting man I would say most people who experience GLP-1's and hop off after their goals are met will be repeat customers and not one and done. Parents for example were on, hopped off and then back on. You are correct though even though they are all similar Reta really seems to be seriously impressive, not sure if I can chalk that up to the addition of Glucagon alone but the buzz around it via grey market use and in general before it's even out to market is insane. My thesis is GLP-1's are not a one and done for the majority of people that go on them, they will either use them long term for other health benefits and to maintain that food noise control or will hop off, and eventually come back when weight creeps back up.

Savings_Refuse_5922

Retatrutide is basically a 3rd gen (or what I call it I guess) of the common GLP-1 drugs that have been so popular for weight loss. Ozempic (Semaglutide) is a single action (GLP-1 agonist) drug, Terzepetide (Munjaro) is a dual action with GLP-1 + GIP, and Reta is a triple action drug with GLP-1, GIP, as well as the addition of Glucagon hormone. Reta seems to have less overall side effects reported, works just as well if not better showing more weight loss than Ozempic and people seem to feel it leaves them with a better overall body composition muscle wise than say Ozempic. The addition of the Glucagon aspect adds to the appetite suppression of the first two drugs by also increasing your metabolic rate/caloric burn. So you have a GLP-1 that seems to do everything better, with milder side effects, and happier people. The only argument I've seen is that appetite suppression wise Terzepetide is a bit stronger but you can just titrate your dosage of Reta up till you meet your appetite/food noise suppression needs. It's not even out yet and it's already everywhere via the API's being produced in china, tested for purity then shipped around the world and packaged and labelled by "grey market" labs. It's real reta and people are loving it. I know numerous people taking it and they range from bodybuilders on cuts, to normal people just to slim down, to the "wine mom" crowd. As I'm always interested in these things and have over a decade of ADHD levels of research on PEDs and other performance enhancing drugs I tend to go down a rabbit hole on the literature and also questioning the people I know that took it. Comparing the side effects and results to Ozempic which both my older parents took is night and day with better results. So unless Novo has something in the pipeline that can match that I think Lily is going to win out on the GLP-1 wars if they have their own pill version as well. I just don't see what Novo has that competes with the incoming release of Reta (End of Phase 3 trials I believe with a 2026/27 release date but don't quote me on that). tldr; Eli Lily owns the better GLP-1 injection right now with Terzepetide and has Reta coming very soon. They also have their own oral version coming even tho Novo was first to market with their's they both demonstrate close to the same weight loss % for their oral offerings. I just see Lily eating their lunch in this space in the next few years and it's the reason why I haven't jumped into Novo at these huge dips. From my cursory check it looks like Novo only has Amycretin which seems to offer a faster rate of weight loss (12 weeks) but less total weight loss than it's current oral offering and Lily's. So it doesn't seem ground breaking enough at all to move the needle. Reta is the play.

No-Improvement3164

There was a time Staples were considered a safe place/defensive. Now RFK jr and GLP-1 has stopped that.

Euphoric-Guess-1277

The foundational research on GLP-1, sure. The clinical R&D for Ozempic? Definitely not.

LonelyTAA

You haven't been paying attention to the GLP1 market lol. Ozempic is old news, only half as effective as newer drugs like Mounjaro. Hell, I'm pretty badly informed so Mounjaro js likely old news by now

LooseJuice_RD

Right except anything out now prior to the drugs approval is coming from an unknown source and is of unknown purity. There’s no FDA (or any other regulatory body) approved retatrutide on the market right now. Considering that we’ve already seen the purity of semaglutide from compounding pharmacies and online sources vary wildly, why would we assume this is anything different? Perhaps you have the means to evaluate the purity of drugs but the overwhelming majority of people do not. Sure we see that retatrutide has been safe in its smaller scale trials and GLP-1s have been around for decades with excellent safety, but it’s not ignorance to say that the compounds on the market now are of questionable safety. They could be extremely pure, they could have doses in excess of what you’re expecting or they might be a fraction of what you’re actually paying for. You don’t know. I don’t think that’s ignorance, I think that’s playing it safe. I’m all for free will, but I’d still say it’s foolish to take this drug right now. But please carry on about how I’m an idiot.

Comfortable_Goal9110

I can do it too just ask why NOT and it will shit you out the inverse. I also got emojis so it's solid DD Based on recent developments and financial data, investing in Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) presents significant risks. While the company has experienced impressive growth, it is currently facing a severe regulatory and legal storm that threatens its core business model. Here are the primary reasons why buying HIMS shares could be a bad idea right now. 🚨 The Core Problem: A Regulatory and Legal Meltdown The single biggest threat to HIMS is the collapse of its weight-loss business. The company's recent growth was largely fueled by selling compounded versions of popular GLP-1 drugs like semaglutide . This "gold rush" has come to a screeching halt. · End of a Loophole: The FDA removed semaglutide from the national shortage list, effectively ending the legal protection that allowed HIMS to sell these profitable compounded versions . The company has already had to pull its compounded semaglutide pill from the market . · DOJ Investigation: The situation escalated quickly in February 2026 when the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) referred Hims & Hers to the Department of Justice (DOJ) for a potential investigation into federal law violations . · Patent Lawsuit: Pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk has filed a patent infringement and "deceptive marketing" lawsuit against the company, posing a major financial threat . 📉 Financial Fallout and Deteriorating Outlook The regulatory issues are already hitting the company's finances and future prospects. · Shockingly Slowing Growth: The company's growth is decelerating at an alarming rate. Revenue growth is projected to fall from a staggering 111% year-over-year in early 2025 to just 26% in the fourth quarter . This suggests the GLP-1 fueled party is over. · Earnings Are Dropping: Analysts expect earnings per share to decline significantly. For the upcoming report, EPS is estimated to be $0.02, a staggering drop of 81.8% from the previous year . Estimates have also been revised downward recently . · High Expectations vs. Reality: The stock is expected to be extremely volatile, with options traders pricing in a potential 13% swing after earnings—much higher than usual . This reflects deep uncertainty about the company's future.

BuffaloSabresFan

Everyone has heard of HIMS, but I think they've captured the audience of people who want rubber stamp prescriptions without insurance and without leaving their house. They're an internet pill mill and people don't have disposable income for cash price GLP-1s and hair loss/boner pills.

kronus87

5.2's breakdown \- - - - - - - - - - - Good. Let’s structure this like a trader, not like WSB. I’m going to assume: * Spot ≈ **$15.50** * Earnings implied move (based on typical HIMS history + IV expansion) ≈ **±15–18%** * That gives an expected move range of roughly **$13.00 – $18.25** Now we build a **scenario probability table** instead of a single price prediction. # 📊 HIMS Earnings Probability Matrix |Scenario|Narrative|Price Target|% Move|Probability|Notes| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |🔴 Bearish Miss|Revenue or guidance disappoints|$12.50–13.50|\-13% to -20%|30%|Downtrend continues, GLP-1 concerns dominate| |🟡 In-Line / Choppy|Beat small, guidance cautious|$15.00–17.00|\-3% to +10%|35%|IV crush, no strong trend reversal| |🟢 Bullish Beat|Strong sub growth + raised guidance|$18.50–19.80|\+20% to +28%|25%|Short squeeze + relief rally| |🟢 Breakout Expansion|Strong beat + narrative shift|$21–22+|\+35–40%|10%|Requires institutional re-rating| # 🎯 Expected Value Calculation (Simple Weighted Model) Let’s assign midpoints: * Bearish avg: $13.00 * Neutral avg: $16.00 * Bullish avg: $19.00 * Breakout avg: $21.50 Now multiply by probabilities: (13 × .30) + (16 × .35) + (19 × .25) + (21.5 × .10) = 3.9 + 5.6 + 4.75 + 2.15 = **16.40 expected price** # 🧠 Interpretation Statistically: * The model leans slightly **positive skew** * Expected value ≈ **$16.40** * That implies roughly **+6% upside bias** * But distribution is wide and fat-tailed This is NOT a 60–80% probability to $22. That’s more like a **10% breakout tail event**. # 🧮 What This Means For Strategy If you're playing: # Shares Risk is asymmetric but manageable. Downside likely to $13 area. # Calls Need >20% move to overcome IV crush unless deep ITM. # Straddle If IV pricing is >18% move, you're likely overpaying. # Credit Spread High IV makes defined risk spreads more attractive than naked long premium. # 🔎 Key Variable The most important line on the call: > If they show operating leverage, upside probability increases materially. If you want, next we can: * Compare this to actual options market expected move * Build a risk/reward table for specific strikes * Or model a position (example: 17.5 calls vs 15/20 call spread) Your move. \- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

flumydumdum

TBH the technicals look pretty good on this. RSI and MFI are massively oversold on the daily and MFI on the weekly. Call/put ratio is bullish too, and \~$15 is a strong support/resistance level, so we could at least see a dead-cat-bounce to \~$19 before a further crash. With an SI of 33+% we could even see a little squeeze there, pumping this over $20. The bearish case is really just the GLP-1 lawsuit, but mebbe Andy Dudum can just call up Trump to get the case dismissed, buy America and all...

kronus87

Here’s a *data-anchored* look at **HIMS (Hims & Hers Health)** ahead of tonight’s earnings — putting aside r/WSB price predictions and anchoring instead to fundamentals, calendar, catalysts, and risks: # 📅 Earnings Event Details * HIMS is scheduled to report \*\*Q4 & full-year 2025 earnings after market close on **Feb 23, 2026**. AMC release confirmed by company filings. ([Hims Inc.](https://investors.hims.com/news/news-details/2026/Hims--Hers-to-Announce-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Financial-Results-on-February-23-2026/default.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) # 📊 Street Expectations **Consensus EPS:** \~low single-digit cents Historical results have been mixed: * Last reported EPS (Q3 2025) *beat revenue* but *missed EPS estimates*. ([MarketBeat](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/HIMS/earnings/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) * Analysts expect modest EPS growth, not explosive beats. ([Zacks](https://www.zacks.com/stock/research/HIMS/earnings-calendar?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) **Forward Analysts Targets:** * Avg 1-yr price target \~$45ish (wide range). ([www.alphaspread.com](https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nyse/hims/summary?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) * Street sees significant upside *over the next 12 months* if fundamentals reaccelerate — **not necessarily from one quarter.** # 📉 Recent Price Action & Technicals From your TradingView shot, HIMS chart shows: * **Steep multi-month downtrend** (52-wk low recently hit). ([Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/hims-stock-hits-52week-low-at-1562-usd-93CH-4511312?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) * Technical indicators show *oversold conditions* on RSI/MACD, which can lead to short-term mean reversion rallies rather than trend reversal. Right now it’s trading far below prior averages — which is typical for a stock that just had fundamental headwinds and a regulatory overhang. # 💊 Key Fundamental & Catalyst Backdrop **Bullish factors:** * Strong recurring revenue growth and subscriber base expansion historically. ([Hims Inc.](https://investors.hims.com/news/news-details/2025/Hims--Hers-Health-Inc--Reports-Third-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results/default.aspx?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) * Diversifying into additional health verticals beyond weight-loss drugs. * Large acquisition of telehealth company Eucalyptus aims at international expansion. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/hims-hers-health-acquire-australias-eucalyptus-up-115-billion-2026-02-19/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) * A long-term subscription growth narrative that justifies higher valuations. **Bearish/Neutral factors:** * Former revenue boost from GLP-1 compounds is *effectively over* due to regulatory constraints. ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/hims-tumbles-ceo-phasing-out-weight-loss-wegovy-ozempic-glp-2025-2?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) * Earnings consensus isn’t strong — beats would need meaningful margin improvement or guidance uplift. * Stock has already priced in a lot of negative sentiment recently. # 📊 Earnings Catalysts That Matter **What would likely move the stock meaningfully AMC or next day:** 📈 **Beat on EPS + raised guidance** — especially on profitability margins. 📈 **Bullish commentary on subscriber growth or retention**. 📈 **Positive outlook on GLP-1 or next wave products** (liraglutide pipeline). 📉 **Revenue miss or weak guidance**, or continued regulatory/legal overhang. Importantly: *a rally into the teens/mo cap at $19-22 doesn’t require HIMS to suddenly be a multi-year growth story — just a relief bounce from oversold conditions and a mild beat/guidance tone.* That’s why some models predict a short-term bounce — it’s positioning more on *technical oversold and relief rather than fundamental breakout*. # 📈 Probability & Price Projections (contextualized) Your “$19.80 base with breakout to $22 at 60-80% probability” is essentially a **short-term mean-reversion thesis**: Bullish scenario for AMC: * Stock often rallies on *earnings beats with guidance raises* and positive narrative shifts at earnings. * Short covering + technical oversold bounce can produce 10-20% upside even absent dramatic fundamentals. But from a **risk-adjusted standpoint**: * If HIMS *misses*, moves could be **downside continuation** as sentiment resets further. * A breakout above prior key levels would require *institutional re-accumulation* and narrative shift — not typical on one print unless guidance materially improves. So framing it as a **range reversion play rather than a full trend reversal** is more realistic. # 🧠 Summarized View (Neutral-Technical) **Bullish short-term case:** * Oversold setup * Relief rally on earnings beat * Positive commentary on future growth areas *Target range*: **$18–22** **Neutral/Downside case:** * Weak guidance ⇒ continuation of downtrend * Regulatory/GLP-1 uncertainty lingers *Target range*: **$12–15** **Longer-term fundamentals:** * Growth narrative intact but execution and regulation are the biggest variables. If you want, I can break this down into a **probabilistic payoff table** (with implied moves based on IV, expected move from options pricing, upside/downside scenarios), or we can map it to a **thinkorswim risk profile** using current options data.

Striking-Cattle3255

In my point of view this stock is like a once in a lifetime opportunity at current prices and I am confident this will go to the moon soon! After the recent aggressive sell-off, it goes without saying that HIMS is attractive at current levels from a valuation lens. On a sales basis, the stock now trades at 1.6x TTM revenue and 1.6x forward sales, well below the sector median. To keep it simple this is a solid business actually making cash not like BYND (which is losing). Also, HIMS continues to post sector-leading revenue growth, with 78% year-over-year growth and 46% forward growth, far outpacing the sector median. Stripping GLP-1 out of the narrative, HIMS should be valued as a scaled consumer health subscription platform rather than a structurally advantaged obesity-drug disruptor. At $15 the stock is no longer pricing in GLP-1 upside AT ALL, and a large portion of the multiple reset has already occurred, which limits near-term downside barring further legal escalation. (Just imagine what would happen on news if they make a deal with Novo) To summarize: High chance this breaks out soon with very limited downside risk at this price. Also, earnings coming up and they just announced another big acquisition! Looking forward to the journey to the MOON 🚀 Hopefully HIMS get short squeezed 🤞

gamjatang111

one of the best substack to sub. Early on GLP trade, early on storage trade (STX , SNDK) early on energy rotation (XLE)

zeezle

Semaglutide has the worst side effects for least weight loss of the 3 main GLP-1s. Then cagrilintide also has its own side effects. CagriSema just combines them so the sides for each are still there. Plus it’s also about the pipeline… Lilly already beats it with tirzepatide but has retatrutide in the pipeline which beats tirzepatide on both % weight lost and side effects.

Catch_ME

Fuck that shit. I'll reinvest in 2 years when their stock averages $60 and they fired enough MBAs that told them to not reinvest their ozempic headstart money into a 2nd generation weightloss drug.  NVO now going after hims. hims is bringing more access to GLP1 drugs. This train is moving regardless of NVO. The FDA will be forced by this president and the next one to approve more generics weightloss drugs.  NVO thinks their battle with hims means something. They are just a tiger chasing rabbits in a field of Buffalo.  Eli Lilly could be bigger than Nvidia because of their weightloss drugs. Hormone therapy is the next jewel of industry. NVO management sucks so hard, they can eat a dick. 

Weldobud

Copied from another post. The study is somewhat subject to bias. But does the public read details? Study Result Transcript Insights - 23rd Feb > So this was an open-label study... The people in the study knows whether they are taking CagriSema or the market-winning Tirzepatide. From the company POV, it seems like they are just releasing pharmaceuticals data (which is probably required by law?), and the market took it like it's the end of the world for Novo GLP-1 journey. > And apparently they are also "suprised" that the study from Tirzepatide reached 25%. Which also might suggest that some of this is also bias-driven. > And they said they are going to do a blind study at some point.

Kungfeet

Muscle mass loss happens with all weight loss, especially rapid weight loss! it’s not a specific side effect for GLP agonists just fyi!

SHIBashoobadoza

I think people are also talking into account Lilly’s GLP-3. Which is going to be a game changer IMO

Separate_Fold5168

Im a baggie so I hope you're right, but DIABETUS is going to be lessened in the long run thanks to GLP-1 uptake.

machinepeen

GLP1 pills aren’t the future. side effect profile is way worse than injections.

huyyqt15

Probably going to tank. I work for a competitor and the regulatory playing field for GLP-1s has changed a lot to the point where there is a LOT of competition but not even in the same way...some people run it out of their garages illegally, only packing the API and absolutely no liquids and people buy it and mix it themselves. If it's just the API, there's a much longer BUD, and buying in bulk makes more sense. Yes there are risks associated with this way, but it's disclosed and when people can save over $200-300 a month compared to HIMS, they usually don't care. A lot have been issued notices by the FDA but they don't care. In the owner's eyes, it's just raw API powder.