GLP

RalphTheIntrepid

Danish retirement funds have massive holdings in [Novo Nordisk](https://www.google.com/search?client=opera&q=Novo+Nordisk&sourceid=opera&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&mstk=AUtExfCuQH9fUyqhEjVyJW5TbRrfxKYJtuqhWy1CPkJDNb0uw2uSyGoPbSy8hssw7_XS2_rCa40oVFUJIv8o1oRzTa2Y4fPa40awmp4zj1qVM74lUgKBLymWacdG5wQ-1MVkEAR9TTM4uC0gfAz2pXW3CGiVrPux5WL3jx1IHtB29BVOEBM&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi6i8r85pqSAxUtv4kEHbVoDFoQgK4QegQIARAB), making the pharma giant a cornerstone of many Danish pensions, though this also exposed them to significant losses when the stock dipped in 2025 due to increased competition. While funds like [ATP](https://www.google.com/search?client=opera&q=ATP&sourceid=opera&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&mstk=AUtExfCuQH9fUyqhEjVyJW5TbRrfxKYJtuqhWy1CPkJDNb0uw2uSyGoPbSy8hssw7_XS2_rCa40oVFUJIv8o1oRzTa2Y4fPa40awmp4zj1qVM74lUgKBLymWacdG5wQ-1MVkEAR9TTM4uC0gfAz2pXW3CGiVrPux5WL3jx1IHtB29BVOEBM&csui=3&ved=2ahUKEwi6i8r85pqSAxUtv4kEHbVoDFoQgK4QegQIARAC) bet on Novo's long-term revival, investing heavily, other funds experienced reduced returns from their substantial exposure, highlighting both the potential rewards and risks of this concentrated investment strategy.  **Key Aspects:** * **Major Holdings:** Danish pension funds hold billions in Novo Nordisk, with some owning a significant portion (around 40%) of the company, making it a central part of Danish retirement savings. * **Investment Strategy:** Funds like ATP have increased their stakes, seeing potential growth beyond the U.S. market, while acknowledging short-term pressures. * **Impact of Stock Fluctuations:** Recent volatility, including profit warnings in 2025, led to substantial losses for some funds, impacting their overall returns for the year. * **Economic Link:** Novo Nordisk's success has become so intertwined with Denmark's economy that its stock performance significantly influences national economic growth and pension fund performance. * **Ethical Concerns (US Employees):** While Danish funds focus on the company's overall performance, some reports highlight that Novo Nordisk's U.S. employee pension investments (through global funds) included junk food companies, creating a contrast with Danish ethical investing.  In essence, Novo Nordisk is a double-edged sword for Danish pensions: a powerful engine for growth, but also a significant source of risk due to its concentrated investment.  Novo Nordisk's sales are heavily concentrated in the **United States**, often accounting for roughly **60% or more of total revenue**, with North America as the dominant segment, followed by International Operations (including Europe, China, and Rest of World markets like Latin America/Asia). For example, in 2024, North America sales were around $27 billion versus $18.5 billion for International sales, with the U.S. alone exceeding all other regions combined, driven by high demand and pricing for GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy.  Now, say Trump cuts off sales of their products. We did it with Huawei. What do you think will happen to Novo Nordisk's stock if it loses 60% of its revenue overnight?

Responsible-Milk-259

Dude, 2017 called and wants its trade back. GLP-1 drugs have come a long way since Ozempic. Mounjaro/Zepbound (tirzepatide) is now the gold standard and works a good bit better than Ozempic. Retatrutide is the new game-changer and is by far the best yet; it’s currently in phase 3 trials, yet it’s available on the grey market and already has a cult following by those in the know. Everyone from your average fatty to bodybuilders cutting well into single-digit body fat are using Retatrutide. Now both Mounjaro and Retatrutide are owned by Eli Lily. In short, you’re buying the wrong drug company.

Heferti

Doctors were prescribing those medications off label and the need for those medications for diabetes treatment was high. Novo Nordisk couldn’t keep up with the demand and the FDA stepped in. Was a huge blow to NVO and continues to be highly impactful for the company. The only bright spot for them is they’re still leading the development of oral GLP1s and will likely have the first patent in the US for one.

OptimysticPizza

The dip seems to coincide with the announcement that 5 states were rescinding coverage for GLPs for weight loss. I would expect it to climb steadily back up as more people find loopholes to get covered. Also, prices may actually drop now that lots of single players are not paying top dollar, which could make it more accessible for self funding. Final point - the data is starting to imply that GLP1's are a lifetime drug for many people. I'm long NVO

Turbosuit

Retatrutide is just flat better. GLP-1 sides are nondiscriminatory and ever present. So what? It grinds back up to ath, retatrutide comes out of phase 3 and it drops. That's my best case for it imho. I take peptide and have been for ~5 years. You can get much better stuff than GLP-1 on the gray market for anyone who's serious. Also it's use case, okay you take it for a while lose the weight and never buy their product again because you don't need it. Or gain the weight back take it some more, sides become more prevalent then you stop cause you're scared about the damage it's doing to year heart valves? Or your doctor recommends something else because of the sides. I'm a midwit, but I do fuck with peptides GLP-1 is D tier. Retatrutide is A tier. Reta approval estimated late 26-27 guess who? lly. GLP-1 wont be able to be given away. Meanwhile you can buy retatrutide cycles right now for $60-80. This is not an endorsement of any experimental chemicals, financial or medical advice.

SeemoarAlpha

Everyone and their fat mother is in the GLP 1 game now and NVO (along with Lilly) got the price cram down from Trump. I smell a bag holder here.

ThotMobile

Retatrutide is significantly better than even zepbound and especially Ozempic and is phase 3 with LLY. It’s a GLP-3 and is insanely good at shedding weight while maintaining muscle. Will absolutely be passing ozempic and zepbound as the best option once approval happens.

JoeDiAmo

Especially when the demand for GLP1 receptor is at peak demand

Thin_Onion3826

Retatrutide is going to dust the GLP1s.

Swagastan

Every company in pharma is making their own GLP-1 or combo and Lilly already has the best one and market leader.  So going hard now on the worse option in just pill form seems dubious.

goudarziha

Reta is going to blow any other GLP out of the water. Short this shi

jadthomas

I don’t see the argument of 6 month exclusive window of the “first pill” GLP as being more meaningful than numerous better molecules (ozempic might actually be the worst of the compounds in terms of benefit/side effects) having much better supply and in zepbound’s case being produced by a domestic mfr.

ChirrBirry

I buy a 10 vial kit of Tirzepitide from China for $70, with Janoshik testing. There’s absolutely no reason to buy name brand GLP-1 drugs.

SquareWaveFlexorcist

It had a huge run up in price until other drug makers got their own GLP-1 drugs, now their sales are dropping as people are on competitor drugs such as zepbound, mounjaro, trulicity, etc…

Bob_the_peasant

Denmark has supplied them with a GLP-1 dome system that can shoot those all down

c4sshernsin

# 4. The "Pension Doom Loop" is Exaggerated The poster claims a NVO crash destroys Denmark's solvency. * **The Rebuttal:** While NVO is a huge part of the Danish economy, Denmark has one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in Europe and a massive sovereign surplus. * **The Logic:** Even if NVO's stock dropped 80% (which is unlikely given that the rest of the world still needs insulin and GLP-1s), Denmark is not a "company town." It is a highly diversified, wealthy nation that can survive a market correction. # 5. The "Eli Lilly" Fallacy Some argue that Eli Lilly (LLY) would just "take over" the market share. * **The Rebuttal:** Pharma production is not "plug and play." Eli Lilly is already struggling to meet its own demand. They cannot magically manufacture Novo's proprietary molecules. A total removal of Novo Nordisk from the U.S. market would create a permanent supply vacuum that would lead to a public health crisis, not a simple "rotation" into a competitor's stock. # Summary "Mic-Drop" Counter-Argument: *"This thesis assumes the U.S. would commit economic and diplomatic suicide—destroying NATO, tanking the S&P 500 through EU retaliation, and causing a domestic healthcare riot—all to buy an island from an ally who has already said 'No' for 80 years. It’s a creative Tom Clancy plot, but it ignores how supply chains, international law, and voter priorities actually work."*

randizze

In fact, Morgan Stanley predicted a widespread adoption rate not unlike the "introduction of smartphones," with 11% of being on some form of a GLP-1. with the US already being the biggest market in the world for obesity drugs with about 8 million patients—a number that could rise to 30 million in 2035. Is this sufficient enough ?

OpeDefinitely

Pulling Ozempic from the US isn't really a lever that Denmark has. Lilly's GLP-1s are better across the board. Lack of competition sucks, but the American healthcare system is already ass while we have better American GLP-1s. That said, obviously we shouldn't fuck with Greenland/Denmark. Just some really stupid shit.

OpeDefinitely

Going after Greenland/Denmark is stupid, but Eli Lilly's GLP-1s are objectively way better than Novo's.

LennyKimes

It’s funny you think someone telling Trump he can’t do something would stop him from doing it. Who’s going to stop him Congress? Lol ok. 1. maybe. 2. He doesn’t care and Congress won’t stop him. He put $500M in a Qatari Account outside the treasury. 3. Most likely they rule against him. He hasn’t talked about Venezuela because they abducted Maduro. The market will pull back Tuesday. Also Denmark makes 76% of US insulin and 100% of GLP-1.

Ok-Parfait-9856

The only thing GLP1 agonists and IL-15 agonists have in common is that they’re agonists…comparing this drug to GLP1 agonists is ridiculous. GLP1 and IL-15 have literally nothing to do with each other. IL-15 isnt some secret. Agonizing it does stimulate the immune system but many cancers grow specifically because they avoid the immune system. So T cells and NK cells won’t do shit. It’s likely a great add-on treatment, but only if the cancer hasn’t already mutated to the point of avoiding the immune system. That’s why CAR-T therapy is so effective, it’s essentially extracting the patients T cells, then training T cells in the lab to target and attack cancer cells by using crispr to add the gene coding for a marker in the cancer cells, then reintroducing the modified T cells to the body. I know and worked in the same lab as a doctor (PhD MD dual degree) who’s pioneered CAR-T therapy; now he’s an expert. Sadly CAR-T isn’t a profitable drug but rather an expensive procedure, so profits are low but it’s the literal cure to cancer, due to its highly personalized nature. Since every cancer is different, there’s no one size fits all approach, but I digress. If your T cells are blind to cancer cells, which happens a lot, activating them won’t do anything. This drug, like many others, is a gamble. I work in biotech and have developed cancer therapies fwiw, and know much more than the average redditor…who knows nothing about biology besides a high school class they slept through. I don’t consider myself an expert, but my definition of an expert in this case would be someone who has a phd in cancer biology or immunology at the least, plus relevant research experience. And no, being an expert in IT or CS or finance doesn’t make you an expert in cancer biology and immunology.

cybot2001

This is a fantastic idea, cut America out of GLP-1 access completely. A lot of good ones will unfortunately suffer but it'll bring the prices down and cause massive digestion pressure. 

dvdmovie1

I've done well with Sandoz - one of the biggest generic drug cos (and will start to benefit from generic GLP-1 options in some countries this year.) Has been almost a triple since the late 2023 spin-off.

TraditionalMango58

You're right about the current dynamism. US companies are monsters at scaling. Look at Eli Lilly - they took the GLP-1 concept and just ruthlessly optimized it. They're dropping billions on new factories (like the $9B recently committed to manufacturing) just to flood the market. Novo can't seem to match that raw capital firepower. But looking long term, I think we're coasting on momentum and eating our seed corn. The foundations that built that advantage are eroding: \- Education is slipping. You can't have tech dominance without a skilled workforce, and we are failing to produce it locally. US math scores in PISA rankings dropped to 28th place worldwide. We're relying entirely on importing talent, which works until it doesn't. \- Basic research is drying up. The "inventing" part used to be funded by the government (Internet, GPS, early biotech). Federal R&D spend has crashed from nearly 2% of GDP in the 60s to under 0.7% today. Corporations do R&D now, but they focus on next quarter's profit, not the deep science that creates the next industry. We are great at harvesting the crop right now, but we stopped planting the next field.

No_Release5354

Anktiva is an IL-15 receptor agonist, similar in concept to GLP-1 receptor agonists. Both work by activating specific receptors to drive powerful biological outcomes. In this case, IL-15 signaling activates natural killer cells, instructing the immune system to aggressively hunt down and kill cancer cells. The key insight, and why the market is so excited, is that this mechanism is not cancer-type specific. Meaning, whether it’s lung, brain, breast, or any other cancer, natural killer cells are signaled to broadly find and destroy all cancer cells. GLP-1s showed what receptor agonists can do for obesity and changed obesity care forever. IL-15 receptor agonists represent that same breakthrough moment for oncology and are poised to do for cancer treatment what GLP-1s did for obesity. Oncology is now entering its GLP-1 era, and Anktiva, the world’s first FDA-approved IL-15 receptor agonist, is leading the charge

gopoohgo

NVO won a battle in the fat wars, huh? Either that or has discovered that GLP1s can be used as SSD memory

wright_on_

just invest in AI and GLP1s don't overthink it

Garbage-Disposal-938

if a GLP-1 drug gives you cancer, can't you just shrink the tumors by giving them some GLP-1?

borat_he_like_you

I look forward to the day when RFK Jr. tells everyone that GLP-1 drugs cause cancer lmao 🤣

buffotinve

Has that pharmaceutical company researched and completed all the necessary steps to bring its GLP-1 drug to market? I don't understand the lawsuit.

CrumbBCrumb

The last part is probably the bigger deal. Get a new indication? The patent gets extended. It's why they're pushing to get GLP-1s approved your a variety of weight based disorders.

Lollipopsaurus

In very basic layman’s terms, the compounding pharmacy is claiming that mixing the GLP-1 solution isn’t difficult nor novel. Therefore, Eli/Novo shouldn’t have exclusive permission to create them.

F00zball

No, Compounded GLP-1's are still widespread & easy to get at a fraction of name-brand price. The compounding pharmacies / telehealths are doing non-standard dosages (14mg vs 15mg) & putting in vitamin additives like B12 to get around the ban.

Single_Quail3165

Big pharma getting called out for monopolistic BS? Shocked pikachu face This could actually be huge if it sticks - compounding pharmacies have been getting squeezed hard lately and GLP-1s are literally printing money right now. Might be time to grab some cheap calls if this drags out

callsonreddit

Eli Lilly -5%, Novo Nordisk -4% after compounding pharmacy files federal antitrust lawsuit over GLP-1 competition [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1qdp7ks/eli\_lilly\_5\_novo\_nordisk\_4\_after\_compounding/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1qdp7ks/eli_lilly_5_novo_nordisk_4_after_compounding/)

explorer_soul99

**Key Metrics (GLP-1 Leaders)** | Metric | NVO | LLY | |:--|:--|:--| | Market Cap | $1,695B | $955B | | ROE | **77.9%** | 102.3% | | ROA | **23.0%** | 16.0% | | EV/EBITDA | **11.5x** | 39.1x | **Income Statement (TTM)** | Metric | NVO | LLY | |:--|:--|:--| | Revenue | $315.6B | $59.4B | | Op Income | $132.7B | $26.1B | | Gross Margin | 82.0% | 83.0% | | Op Margin | **42.0%** | **43.9%** | **Cash Flow (TTM)** | Metric | NVO | LLY | |:--|:--|:--| | Operating CF | $123.8B | $16.1B | | Free Cash Flow | **$62.7B** | $9.0B | NVO vs LLY comes down to valuation: - **NVO:** 11.5x EV/EBITDA, $62.7B FCF, 42% op margin - **LLY:** 39.1x EV/EBITDA, $9.0B FCF, 44% op margin LLY trades at 3.4x NVO's multiple despite similar margins. NVO's recent drop (oral GLP-1 concerns) created a valuation gap. **OZEM ETF** dilutes exposure across the value chain. If you're bullish GLP-1, concentrated positions in NVO (cheaper) or LLY (momentum) outperform diversified ETF. OZEM makes sense only if you can't pick between them.

leveragedtothetits_

EUV lithography is American technology that relies on American components, Eli Lilly already is beating the pants off of Novo on GLP-1s. Airbus would suck but we have Boeing, there would be some tension but really nothing crazy

PaperHandsTheDip

that's why we have the GLP-1's

lysergalien

They put drugs in the food though. Right now food scientists working for Big Snack are trying to chemically alter the flavor profile of snack foods to make them more addictive and appealing for people using GLP-1 drugs. America is a crazy place

PaperHandsTheDip

\> no metabolic disorders What is the metabolic disorder is their body isn't producing enough GLP-1's naturally? Strong willpower is different for every person. Normalize the results - have the same %'s of GLP-1's in their gut to make the test fair.

InvestigatorPlus3229

Jefferies argued that a 10% reduction in average passenger weight could translate into roughly 2% total aircraft weight savings, up to 1.5% lower fuel costs and as much as a 4% boost to earnings per share. Patients are already getting their hands on the first GLP-1 pill for obesity from Novo Nordisk, and a similar product from Eli Lilly isn’t far behind

Cool_Flamingo6779

It's a very dumb idea.  There isn't the same kind of abuse potential for GLP 1s as there is for opiates - I feel like you should be able to figure out why without me explaining it.  They're also already regulated.  Comparing them to Sudafed doesn't make sense as they aren't used as a precursor for illicit drug manufacturing. Your entire thesis boils down to - this drug is being heavily marketed, so it must be bad in some way.  That's a dumb thesis. You shouldn't make any investments based on that. If you're not still a child in grade or high-school, you should look at your local community college and see if they have a class like [this](https://outline.madisoncollege.edu/courses/20809264) one.  That might be the best investment you could possibly make.

NomSaneMan

Anyone else eating basically nothing right now in a futile attempt to lose weight? I wish I was wealthy enough to go on GLP1s instead 😔

zbern

Day 1 at the healthcare conference was pretty cool. Mainly about AI and healthcare especially the Lilly and Nvidia announcement. There was talk about improving GLP-1 so patients lose less muscle and more fat with the drug. There is a focus today on biotech/biopharma and with the efforts in data center infrastructure and on-shoring I think this could be exciting in general for nuclear medicine!

Yellggfghgf

I understand the concerns about misuse and over-marketing, but I also think it’s important to recognize how helpful GLP-1s have been for many of us. I’ve been on a GLP-1 for a while now with shemed , Wegovy (semaglutide) , and it’s genuinely benefited me. It helped quiet food noise, control appetite, and made healthy habits easier to maintain. Wegovy (sema) has also been one of the more cost-effective GLP-1 options and, in my experience, comes with fewer side effects compared to what many people report on other meds. Yes, there are shady compounders and influencers, and regulation needs to catch up, but that’s not the fault of GLP-1s themselves. Used properly, they’re a powerful and positive medical tool.

College_finals

Some of your points don’t hold up. 1. There are already regulations in place. Companies have to conduct rigorous clinical trials and present their data to the FDA for them to review and approve the drug before they can release it into the market. 2. NVO and LLY is already suing multiple compounding pharmacy for their abuse of an order/law from COVID time which allowed them to compound those GLP 1 drugs. Maybe that’s why you don’t see an ad about compounded GLP1 drugs anymore. 3. GLP1 drugs are never going to go away unless people around the world suddenly got skinny and healthy, as these drugs also are beneficial in patients who have lower kidney and cardio function.

Redcrux

If GLPs turn out to be another opioid crisis (unlikely but possible) what makes you think the stock of the drug companies will decrease? They weren't harmed by opioids. There's no such thing as shorting just GLP-1s, those companies make other drugs that might do well too. You are playing with fire, and you could easily lose everything on a short gone wrong since there's no limit to how high a stock can go. It's not like a long position where if the stock goes to 0 you lose only what you invested.

monitorcable

Everybody prefers tirzepitide over semiglutide now. Just go to any facebook group with over 20,000 members; some have more than 50,000 members. The overwhelming preference is tirzepited. The kicker is that tons of people are still getting their GLP-1s through compounded pharmacies; the majority of the population on GLP-1s are neither getting it from Elli Lilly or NovoNordisk. They royally screwed up by not securing the market/distribution lines. You don't even have to see a doctor anymore. Ther are telehealth websites writing Rx's for compounded GLP-1s without even seeing you on video; all you gotta do is fill out a from where you can lie about your weight and 2 minutes later you have an Rx that you can take to one of the countless "providers" of GLP-1s that people get ads for on facebook; not even Hims or Ro are getting most of the clients despite having endorsements from celebrity like Serena Williams.

Humble-Marketing-694

Trading CJMB with the news: Callan JMB Unveils Strategic Shift Toward Cold Chain Logistics For The $100B GLP-1 Drug Market With Texas cGMP Facility Upgrade Underway

Southern-Piglet857

$CJMB popped on open: Tiny float + GLP-1 sector news. Looking at the order book, the path to $2.10-$2.20 is clear once it consolidates this opening move. Relative volume is already looking insane, might be a multi day runner

toomuchgoodstuff9

Mentioned 1 time to my wife that I want to lose some weight (just 10 fucking lbs), and now all my social media feeds are just loaded with GLP-1 ads

Southern-Piglet857

What does this mean exactly? They are going to pivot to GLP-1 cold chain infrastructure?

Alarmed-Camp8489

It looks pretty good. News came out today too: [Callan JMB Unveils Strategic Shift Toward Cold Chain Logistics For The $100B GLP-1 Drug Market With Texas cGMP Facility Upgrade Underway ](https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CJMB/callan-jmb-inc-nasdaq-cjmb-announces-major-strategic-pivot-to-cold-71rv9c1ickaa.html)

nevergambitpawns

Idk. TLT was under valued. Still stuck on the venture exchange but work with a reputable pharmaceutical company might legitimize their operation and ruvidar, rutherrin is incredible the reach it has. They just need money and GLP work for topic and I.V. bladder trial is 88 patients of 90 treated

CurrentFantastic4611

Has anyone seen CJMB news? Callan JMB Inc. (NASDAQ:CJMB) Announces Major Strategic Pivot to Cold-Chain Infrastructure for the $100 Billion GLP-1 Pharmaceutical Market; Initiates Retrofitting of Texas cGMP Facility

stonkgoesbrr

Just came across this ticket whilst researching Mithril holdings. After reading a lot about this stock it seems very interesting. Tempted to throw in a couple of $$$ into it. Only thing I still can’t quite grasp yet is that 1) the revita treatment requires an endoscopic procedure, which is quite invasive and hence possible treatment barrier for possible patients compared to ‚just taking a pill‘ and 2) are health insurance companies really interested in solving an issue that is truly relieving patients from obesity? Because they simply can always recommend taking GLP-1 medication for ever, which will potentially result in more revenue. What are your thoughts on that?

Smooth-Spot2119

LLY is 16% NVO is 20% 74% of the stock value in the ETF is invested in companies that have no GLP-1 sales, but might some day.

nevergambitpawns

Its probably for ruvidar bladder cancer trial. If Rutherrin for herpes and cancer ever passes GLP this will be worth untold amounts now that they are likely about to be legitimized with a large pharma company I think. No more mom and pop shop. Big players will have to take them seriously. I don't expect much tomorrow to be fair. Maybe a jump to 30 or 40 cents for TLTFF. But thats a start. Some think this is going to the $1 range tomorrow but who knows.

stockmaste4r

I 100% agree Hims will go to at least 70$+ this year. Don't worry about all the bearish sentiment the hardest part about making money is following the fundamentals while ignoring the noise. They have everything lined up this year and they have consistently beat guidance. The only exception was 3rd quarter last year due to GLP-1s but they managed to show that they could continue to grow the quarter after. They have multiple products launched that will eventually help boost sales as well and get them slowly away from Weight-loss which is only like 7-8% of the business. We will see the effect in the next 2-3 quarters (Summer). At 2.8x Sales this is dirt cheap I wouldnt be sitting on the sidelines at this risk/reward.

borat_he_like_you

Shout out to all the PAWGs out there You don't need GLP-1 drugs, there are guys like me that still like you thick, baby. 😏

dvdmovie1

CPG names raised prices too much in recent years and imo, store brands have become increasingly competitive. I think GLP-1s are having an impact but I do think that there are instances imo at the grocery store in recent years where it's almost the principal of the thing. Looked at a large pack of gum (not a Mondelez brand, but they do have gum brands) the other day that was $5. Forget it. Doritos $5-6? I stopped drinking Diet Coke after like 30 years because it just became absurd for what it is (a 12 pack is around twice what it was pre pandemic) and it didn't even taste as good as it once did. Haven't changed grocery store spending but definitely spend less in the center aisles - where all these CPG brands are - than I used to.

Time-Reveal-1056

Persons using the GLP-1 drugs consume fewer calories, especially processed foods.

StewardOfCapital

Novo’s strong fundamentals, like high ROIC and low debt, are solid, but there are a few risks to consider. Eli Lilly is a strong competitor with Tirzepatide, which could capture a larger share of the obesity market, pressuring Novo. While Novo’s insulin and rare disease segments provide stability, its reliance on GLP-1s makes it vulnerable if it loses market share. Regulatory risks and pricing pressures could also impact both companies, especially as healthcare policies evolve. Lilly’s higher P/E reflects optimism about its pipeline, but it’s a risk if expectations aren’t met. Novo’s more conservative valuation could offer a safer bet. Diversifying your strategy makes sense, but keep a close watch on both companies’ pipelines and external market conditions.

Fearless_Concept_589

Totally see your point. Its tough to ignore market sentiment, but having both could balance risks while betting on the GLP-1 space.

Mihermano2002

They’ll fail because people don’t change the habits and think GLP will solve the issue. The issue is the persons own habit and combo of exercise and diet always works better than any other drug, or bariatric surgery

LongroddMcHugendong

I’m a bariatric surgeon, GLP1’s have been buttfucking our business for a couple years now, the orals are going to make it worse. Thing is though, eventually everyone who wants to take them will have tried them and 90%+ fail

MephistoHamProducts

Couple other things to take into consideration with the GLP-1 agonists: * There's been some moves in [Myostatin inhibitor research](https://today.uconn.edu/2025/02/next-generation-of-weight-loss-drugs-being-researched-at-uconn/) that are showing a lot of promise. Ostensibly it's to help people with diseases that cause muscular wasting, but there was a big spike of interest in the Fitness Community. * Myostatin inhibitors show minimal side effects and allow your body to build more muscle than it would normally. They also have far, far fewer side effects than normal steroids. This, combined with effective weight control from GLP-1 agonists, is going to vastly change the fitness and sporting industries. Or, from another viewpoint, it's step one in creating people that look like Space Marines or battle anime characters (or whatever your particular fandom is). * GLP-1 agonists are showing potentially interesting uses for addiction and substance abuse treatment. This is sort of new though and with all the hype around the weight loss effects, probably won't get a lot of attention for now (especially in the USA where we tend to treat addiction as a moral failing rather than a medical issue). So, yeah, if you're sniffing around for one product as a potential for value, make sure you're also looking at some of the related research that ties back to that product.

atlanto-axis

Yeah I guess the thing with that is it has exposure to loads of other companies that I know nothing about, notably Pfizer which as you seem from the table is massively bloated and not particurly efficient at turning investment into cash with a ROIC 7.04%. They are only in the race because they aquired Metsera for a boat load of money (see their debt/ equity ratio). That's just one example. I could have a balanced bundle far fewer GLP1 stocks that I pick myself and still achieve some diversification.

Alasaze

Dulaglutide launched before semaglutide in the GLP-1 class. Its market share / revenue is very low compared to semaglutide. This happens all the time in Pharma, superior products can completely dominate a 2 product market.

Seadog98

Yeah I like the pill too. But I fear Eli Lilly is too far ahead with GLP-3s/retatrutide. Much more promising imo - if they find a pill for that it’s game over for NVO

Zeitzen

I still don't get the GLP craze. Yes, it's fast, and works, but being realistic (and seeing what the doctors are recommending) taking Phenteremine and Metformin works really well, and it's about 10 bucks a month. It's definitely slower, I'm on those and I'm 34lb down since last August. The fast solution also doesn't help establish better habits, both doctors and friends who used Ozempic told me people get the weight back super fast. So the market for GLPs seems to be people who are in a rush or are morbidly obese, and didn't get results from the 2 meds I mentioned?

Lunar_Excursion

YES.... there is a reason why the price is where it is... NVO is only relying on the TAM expanding and holding on to whatever market share they can... they are not actively taking market share and expanding margins... and what's worse is that their new injectables are literally the same thing CagriSema and amycretin are both GLP/amylin agonists... amycretin oral will be interesting though. but both are not exactly the most tolerable drugs and has high nausea and vomiting side effect incidence at high doses.

AngularOtter

By fat? Try GLP-1.

Defiant_Zebra2767

I originally did it as a hedge, my feeling was that if there was selling in tech money would flow into Pharma, plus $NVO being severely undervalued compared to the rest of the industry and with promising things in the pipeline like the GLP-1 pill it was my favorite candidate to do mini-leaps on, when the news hit, I knew I would just need to wait and made a deal with my future self to cap gains when stock reaches 56-57 so I sold today :)

SilentHuntah

> Are people still not worried about the long term impact? GLP-1s have been prescribed for diabetes in the US since at least 2005. If there are long-term side effects, we know about them.

Ok_Blacksmith1684

ASBP: Met 16 of the biggest pharma players, including Bayer a few weeks ago. - Aspirin trial showed 5x more effective and considerably less toxicity vs chewed Aspirin. - Exploring ED and GLP1 markets. - Already 'positive response' from FDA. - Kraig Higginson CEO hasn't sold any shares - Appointed an expert in In-Vivo drug delivery, as well as having an extensive team of medical and ex-FDA people on their medical advisory board/scientific team. Jan 2 was not a deadline for an announcement, just when the FDA would notify ASBP. The news will come when it comes.

0xHermione

If pricing holds, this is a big deal. Pill + $149/mo nukes the biggest barrier to GLP-1s. Margins might take a hit short term but volume could explode. LLY finally has real pressure instead of vibes. Holding NVO makes sense here

samyidak

There is a comparison table of efficacy with current GLP-1 and it is far superior in efficacy. This drug is an oral as well

Kagemand

One problem is existing GLP1s can already be used to treat MASH, it is unclear how much better ALTs drug is even if theoretically an improvement. This sets a limit to how ALTs drug can be priced. Moreover, existing GLP1s are now getting approval as oral drugs, which many might also prefer.

Thescorerocket

Core Differences • Business model: $GUTS builds and commercializes therapies; $LEXX builds a delivery platform for licensing/partners. • Stage of development: $GUTS is in pivotal, device-oriented clinical progression; $LEXX is in early clinical and discovery/optimization phase.  • Market positioning: $GUTS targets a concrete therapeutic niche (post-GLP-1 weight rebound), while $LEXX targets broad pharmaceutical delivery opportunities across multiple APIs.  • Risk profile: $GUTS is still early but further along operationally and with broader analyst coverage, while $LEXX is higher risk with a smaller footprint and more dependency on partnerships. ⸻ Bottom Line • $GUTS is a metabolic device/therapy company with ongoing clinical catalysts and clear regulatory milestones.  • $LEXX is a micro-cap biotech platform company with a unique delivery technology and early human validation, but far more speculative and partnership-dependent.  They both play in the broad metabolic/health innovation space, but their paths, risks, and investor profiles are very different.

fousekis7

The main issues with a lot of GLP-1 treatment is that we do not know long-term side effects and that once you are off, you gain your weight back. I like how $GUTS addresses these issues and I think it is the next big thing in this space. My dd can be read [here ](https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/1q0bced/why_guts_and_achv_are_my_top_biotech_picks_for/)and [here ](https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/1p0803b/why_i_feel_that_fractyl_health_guts_is_the_most/)for those interested.

thiskillsmygpa

Q for you then with your experience. Ive been trading and investing for 15ish years. In my experience sometimes the easiest most obvious big trend, trades really do work quite well. For example, you could buy AAPL in '15 on a couple qs of slowing iPhone sales AFTER buffet bought it and showed up on the 13s. You could buy MRNA and BioNTech AFTER we knew the vax was gonna work and still make a huge return. Same for WFH stocks like zoom after it was clear WFH was gonna be a thing The travel names when it was already apparent people were booking trips again NVDA , AFTER chatGPT came out and AI was the hot thing. LLY well after hundreds of articles and everyone plus their sister on GLP1 Euro weapons companies well into Ukraine war and re-arming under way. So this trade is a simple one, yes, but does HAL and VLO make sense even if it's kinda obvious and consensus?

DoubleFamous5751

Should have ended with him injecting himself with their GLP-1. Puts indeed

borat_he_like_you

She says they lost 20 pounds at the gym. You know the real credit likely belongs to GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. So why would I congratulate her lmao 🤣

Street-Badger

Go on a GLP-1 that shit is magic.  Unless you’re already skinny in which case get fat eating delicious food, and then go on a GLP-1

SlfImpr

For all the new gym goers today - losing fat by exercising is VERY VERY VEY difficult. Contact HIMS for some GLP-1 medication and buy $HIMS stock. Exercise for cardio fitness and muscles, not for losing fat

ForsakenRacism

How am I totally wrong? They already have a pilll GLP1 that no one takes.

wefarrell

The head of the FDA was the CMO at a compounded GLP-1 pharmacy. They ain't cracking down on shit.

pancak3d

They would crack down on compounding, not on GLP-1 itself.

Kick_Natherina

Why would they crack down on GLP-1? The research shows it is an overall win for health. If anything, making it more readily available would be what you’ll see.

Avocadonot

Garbage 2024 revenue and 2024 subscriptions gains were an outlier due to GLP drug adaptation - both of which stalled in the second half of 2025 due to US administration crackdown on compounding laws. HIMS also lost their deal with LLY (or NVO, I forget which one) and they're gonna be BTFO once oral GLP drugs become mainstream - everyone would prefer pills over injections - which they don't have currently

Kblast70

HIMS is going to be hurting once the government gets around to cracking down on compounded GLP-1.

Emotional_Sentence1

I got into HIMS a while ago (over the summer) after being inundated with GLP-1 ads, talking to several people who all told me they were starting it for one reason or another. Millennials are at the age where they’re going to start needing more prescription medical care and they’re going to value getting it from a modern telehealth platform.

Conscious-Rock3765

What do you think about Novo Nordisk? Could it be a good buy at the current conditions (e.g. GLP-1 success vs competitors and still a third compared to ATH)?

toonon

MELI and NVO. Diversifying away from AI tech and US stocks. I think MELIs fintech will have strong growth and NVOs new GLP pill will cause a big comeback in the stock.

Separate_Fold5168

A lot less people eating bergers now, thanks to high beef prices and GLP use.

mermaid6891

I've been following WW too. Your analysis makes sense. The risk that I see is if people will come to them for GLP-1s. Do you think there's an advantage over obtaining these medications in other ways?

ai-moderator

#TLDR --- **Ticker:** HIMS **Direction:** Up **Prognosis:** Buy Dec '26 $60 Calls & Jan '27 $105 Calls **Catalyst:** "High-calorie humans" seeking pill-form GLP-1s for New Year's resolutions. **Short Position:** Human Discipline (unavailable ticker).

General-Success-2968

The ones you mentioned aren't really pure consumer staples though - pharma has its own tailwinds with GLP-1s and tobacco is basically sin stock territory now. OP is talking about the boring stuff like P&G and Walmart that everyone's ignoring for AI hype

MannerProfessional24

NVO is my only position. Been in throughout the downturn but have 100% conviction that the first oral GLP-1 pill just getting FDA approval will be game changing. The jabs have had a major effect on lifestyle but the convenience of a pill form will be seismic.