GLP

glp1guide

This is a massive deal, but keep in mind that there is going to be a massive amount of generics [made available in Canada](https://glp1guide.substack.com/p/hims-is-going-to-sell-generic-semaglutide?utm_source=publication-search) in 2026. Also, CagriSema (Novo's new subcutaneous GLP1) is putting up numbers but [it's underperforming IMO](https://glp1guide.substack.com/p/cagrisema-underperforms-in-latest?r=3jmr7l), but it produced almost the same weight loss as Orforglipron (Eli Lilly's new *oral* GLP1). Yes, I am neck deep in this shit, sorry for the paywalls, just click the links where appropriate.

glp1guide

None of them -- that's how society wins. There is going to be a torrent of generic GLP1s in 2026.

Techun2

Why didn't you also list these side effects? "This included a 22 per cent lower risk of a cardiac arrest, 11 per cent lower risk of heart failure, 9 per cent lower risk of a heart attack and 7 per cent lower risk of ischaemic stroke. As well as heart and circulatory diseases, people taking GLP-1 agonists were 24 per cent less likely to have liver failure, 22 per cent less likely to have respiratory failure and 12 per cent less likely to develop Alzheimer’s disease." Also, this study was on people with diabetes. That may or may not be the same as people taking it for weight loss without diabetes. Lastly, most of those side effects are user error.

New-Association5536

From a large term study done in British study. [https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/behind-the-headlines/weight-loss-injections](https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/behind-the-headlines/weight-loss-injections) "However, people taking GLP-1 agonists also had a higher risk of 19 side effects or diseases compared to those receiving their usual medicines.  Most notably, they were nearly 2.5 times more likely to develop drug-induced acute pancreatitis, which is a serious condition where an organ called the pancreas becomes inflamed.  Other side effects included a 30 per cent higher risk of nausea or vomiting, 11 per cent higher risk of arthritis and a 6 per cent higher risk of [low blood pressure](https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/risk-factors/high-blood-pressure/low-blood-pressure)." Nothing comes for free people. The body is extremely complex.

Many5010

I'm only starting a long position in NVO now since it's down 60% in the past 12 months. It's a long play with GLP1s (and similarly drugs) just getting started for diabetes and obesity and other therapeutic areas in clinical trials at a company that has a healthy PE Ratio. This is not advice to do the same.

ANARCHY_KID

What is a GLP-1 if you don’t mind me asking . Obviously I’m uninformed

Wolfy-1993

Do you know if this behaviour is common across all GLP-1's or are there particular structural qualities to tirzepatide which support stability?

JeggsRN4

GLP-1s are the future. We are only just starting to learn what these drugs can do for us and it would be wise to invest now. The vast majority of Americans will be on this drug in the next 5-10 years.

JeggsRN4

As someone in healthcare and knows the power of these drugs, this is 100% a buy. We have only scratched the surface of the true power of GLP-1s. Invest NOW🚀

Select-Finish-9371

I'm very worried about the flood of compound GLP-1, I think the bottom line of these companies is at real risk.

CathyBikesBook

They inked a deal with $NOVO for the GLP-1s. Trying to decide between buying shares or doing the $5 call for 9/19.

RGN_Preacher

There are two year supplies of compounded GLP1s for less than $400 on the grey market. It’s just bullshit to allow it during a shortage and then make it illegal.

MOLAR65

Compounded drugs are still being sold as this stuff is being litigated. Only the smaller pharmacies stopped selling. I might ad that a compounded GLP1 goes for around $150 a month now.

CommunicationNo3650

LLY has a better GLP1

DunkinsOwner

Sort of like they are finding GLP-1s are good for not just weight loss but also migraines and now a fibromyalgia treatment or something like that. Not that rare for a drug to have off label treatments or treat more than one condition

anthronyu

This is a bullshit take. They have done amazing for patients. Recent oral GLP1s did not provide the aggressive results many wanted. Injectables we have and currently in development likely will

Old-Commission2782

You’re coping. They became the first GLP-1 RA approved for MASH treatment.

Capt1an_Cl0ck

I gambled $45k on LLY when it tanked 160 points in a week after crushing earnings by .72 per share and GLP-1 pill with less than expected trial results.

Some_Local_2433

I get where you’re coming from. It’s easy to feel like everyone should have been buying the dip when you see a big move like this. But sometimes, the market just doesn’t work that way. The news about Wegovy getting FDA approval for MASH (metabolic-associated steatohepatitis) is huge, but it’s also a reminder that timing and sentiment can be unpredictable. The approval is a big win for Novo Nordisk, especially since Wegovy is now the first GLP-1 therapy approved for this liver condition. But even with positive news, stocks don’t always react as expected. There are a lot of factors at play—investor sentiment, broader market trends, and even the timing of the news release. So, while it might feel like everyone should have seen this coming, the market often has its own rhythm. It’s a good reminder that timing the market is tough, and sometimes, the best move is to stay informed and stick to your strategy.

Ok-Recommendation925

No probs. Initially I bought NVO because i recognized their brand and on a surface level of what they produced/offered (product). But i look at the Bear Thesis, and determined if its just noise or legitimate. These were the points raised by bears. 1. Pipeline sucks. 2. Increased Debt. 3. El Lily's drugs are better. 4. Compounder Drugs (Ozempic/Wegovy Substitutes) are eating into Novo's Lunch Money. 5. Supply Chain Issues. Hence i researched to see if its noise or really trouble ahead. And as explained in my earlier reply to you: 1. Pipeline doesn't suck, because Novo is looking into areas like heart disease, while pressing on with focus on GLP-1 drug Market. 2. Increased Debt, to solve the Bear Point No. 5. Plus existing increased debt is managable, thanks to great Balance Sheet Management track record. 3. Yes agreed on Number 3, but cmon the Market is HUGE. We need both of El Lily and Novo Nordisk. Also don't forget bears, you be bitching about El Lily Supply Chain too one day. 4. The Compounders are eating a tiny fraction of Novo's Lunch, and Novo has also launched lawsuits against some of these Compounders. 5. Refer to No. 2. One last thing, the patents. Some have pointed that their prized patents expire in 2032.....thats 7 freaking years away. And its on a drug that Novo itself can potentially improve upon into a new clinically approved upgrade. As for allowing their patent in Canada to expire, Novo's Management planned for that to happen. This isn't copium, its literally mentioned in Denmark News back then. Giving up the patents means allowing themselves to not be bounded by a fixed pricing in Canada. Last thing, do note that if you wish to start a position, NVO is issuing dividends on 18th Aug. So you may consider waiting to see if the Share Price corrects itself by $0.55 per share next week.

AcidCitrus99

I generally sell a stock when I find something else interesting. When the GLP-1 news started hitting, I sold some Tesla to buy some Lilly. At your age, as many people have already said, just ride out the market for several decades, keep putting money in, and you will be rewarded!

Ok-Recommendation925

1. Scaling up their supply chain solutions with heavy investments geared towards manufacturing (Factories, Packaging, API Labs, etc) to meet their drug sale demands. They are moving towards building their 4th factory in North Carolina, 1,000 jobs estimated incoming. 2. Pipeline is still robust. With the latest FDA application submitted, and awaiting approval for Oral Semaglutide. ETA: Late 2025. 3. Well managed Balance Sheet. The increase in debt isn't reckless, but is incurred due to scaling up their internal supply chain. Their avg FCF has increased from approximately $5B in 2014, to $10B in 2024. 4. New CEO appointment. 5. The GLP-1 Market is just getting started. Expected to grow to $130B in 2030. 6. The stock market has mis-priced Novo, as though Obesity/Diabetes are dead. Also I'm not going to shit on LLY, because the truth is, the market needs both NVO and LLY to meet the growing obesity numbers. Not just within the USA, but also globally.

pubic_Static_void

It’s crazy they dipped on news that the GLP-1 pill had 12% weight loss results as opposed to the 13-15% projected. As if 12% isn’t still amazing and won’t absolutely sell as well as or better than the injections…

dvdmovie1

Various thoughts: 1. I think there is some degree of arms race going on where you have mega cap tech spending like there's no tomorrow because - *in part* - they can't others win in AI. Countries don't want other countries to win. The question becomes, what if the best case scenario isn't as compelling as everyone thinks it is or what if it is further off than believed and we are pricing it in as if it's tomorrow? Meta is already going into debt to build more infrastructure. (https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/meta-taps-pimco-and-blue-owl-for-29bn-data-center-financing-report/) 2. Mag 7 are becoming more asset-intensive businesses, which may reshape how they perform down the road (https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1953788029195223107/photo/1) 3. In terms of AI I think there are names that are astronomically valued, but I don't think the entire sector is. Is anything that's done well over the last few years cheap? Can't think of anything cheap and a lot of it is overcrowded, but I don't think it's all astronomically, PLTR-y expensive. What is going on in software right now where people are dumping because of AI concerns is probably creating some opportunities, somewhat similar to GLP-1 concerns did with medtech a while back where's it's just "sell everything in the sector." 4. It's early innings and we are already running into fairly major issues where the cost of electricity is ramping. There is the possibility that if we don't improve the grid and build more capacity, data centers become politically problematic. If we don't get to building more power infrastructure, eventually that will put some degree of ceiling on more data infrastructure. Or we just have electricity cost go through the roof and reliabilty gets majorly imacted as houses fight with data centers for power. 5. "So, how long will it take for this perspective to trickle to the broader investing public?" What is the catalyst? What is the disappointment that sets people's expectations back and causes the stocks to re-rate lower? A recession that causes investors to be less tolerant of all this investment? I don't know. Personally, I've started gradually trimming *some* of the AI names and AI beneficiaries. Have had a very good year and 1) there'd have to be a correction (not a bubble bust necessarily, but an old-fashioned correction) to get some of these names more appealing again and 2) there's a point where the AI theme (and not just tech, but everything else ai adjacent) becomes too much of the portfolio and was bumping up against that. So I'm not negative on AI, but am what I'd like to think is realistic.

bullfromthesea

Maybe the GLP1s kicked in and women can buy some attractive clothing. Do they make something for extra skin?

Ill-Ad1603

Idk, how exemptions on pharma works. I think LLY will take a huge hit most of their drugs are made in Ireland. Even a slight hit will be bad for them considering that they are not winning the GLP-1 weight loss drug race

BankSinatrabtph

This is my accumulation zone for sure. The more I read the more I like. I’m not sure on specific date but the MTA. Here is a little help from you know who lol. Why I’m Bullish on $LEXX (Lexaria Bioscience) 1. Unique Position in GLP-1 Delivery – LEXX’s DehydraTECH platform can make oral delivery of large, injectable-only drugs possible. Right now, GLP-1 drugs (like semaglutide and tirzepatide) are the hottest thing in biotech, and LEXX is the only public company with a proven oral delivery tech in human studies for these drugs. 2. Ongoing Human Trials – The current GLP-1-H24-4 trial has multiple arms, including one with tirzepatide (Lilly’s blockbuster). This isn’t a mouse study—it’s human clinical data, which is the milestone that usually catches Big Pharma’s attention. Topline results are expected late Q3–early Q4 2025. 3. MTA Mystery – LEXX signed a Material Transfer Agreement earlier this year with an undisclosed Fortune 500 pharma company to test DehydraTECH with their proprietary molecules. They haven’t said who, but in the GLP-1 space, the realistic candidates are very limited—think Novo Nordisk or Eli Lilly territory. 4. Patent Moat – Over 40 patents globally, covering delivery of GLP-1s, nicotine, cannabinoids, NSAIDs, and more. Even if GLP-1 is the current market darling, LEXX could monetize in multiple verticals. 5. Why This Matters – If their human trial shows meaningful efficacy and safety, it’s a de-risking event for the tech. That opens the door for licensing, co-development, or outright acquisition.

MarginCuck

Just the beginning for GLP-1

Individual-Habit-438

I went out last night and hit up the 20 something bars for the first time in a while. The ladies were both thinner and flatter than I remember. Very few fatties but the itty bitty titty committee membership was bursting out the door. Calls on GLP-1s?

ArtisticFrame5790

I missed the boat on HIMS. But my wife has been paying $600/month for GLP1 and I’ve been telling her she can get it cheaper. Now her friend tells her she’s buying it for $199/month from hers so my wife decides to make an account hers and order it for $199/month and just told her mom to do the same. Where can I buy HERS stock before it takes off like HIMS?

DunkinsOwner

Because market sentiment surrounding the “failed” GLP-1 oral study overshadowed a lot of the positives and the market oversold. Bet it settles above $700/share next week after it corrects back up.

lurker165473

GPT5, no wait, it's GLP1

Lunar_Excursion

im not talking about "investment potential" or anything like that, im talking facts... only LLY and NVO have Phase III trials for an oral GLP.... VKTX is years behind any real product coming to market... whether it's better or not, or sells better or not, is of no relevance to LLY (or NVO for that matter) in 2026 or 2027...

Competitive_Touch_86

LLY also has the better pipeline. Retatrutide is set to be FDA approved somewhere around early 2027, assuming nothing crazy happens during trials. Given the amount of grey market "experimentation" going on and the results folks are reporting, I personally doubt any surprises are going to happen. The pill form GLP-1s are more or less all identical - the issue is not a few percentage difference in weight loss results, the issue is amount of side effects due to the massive dosing needing to be effective and the highly variable tolerance of this between patients. I don't see them as being game changers yet.

Historical_Stage2622

No one eats salads now due to GLP-1

Todtie

Chronic diseases are undeniably shaping the future of global healthcare. Among them, diabetes stands out — not only because of its growing prevalence, but also because of the way it intersects with other global health challenges, like obesity and cardiovascular disease. The data is clear: every year, the number of people diagnosed with diabetes increases. Obesity rates are also rising, and since obesity is one of the strongest predictors of type 2 diabetes, this trend feeds directly into the growth of the diabetic population. Experts worldwide warn of a coming “diabetes tsunami,” and the healthcare systems of most countries are not fully prepared to manage it. Novo Nordisk is uniquely positioned in this landscape. Unlike many large pharmaceutical companies that spread their focus across dozens of diseases, Novo is specialized. Their deep focus on diabetes and obesity gives them a competitive edge in innovation, research, and product development. They're not trying to be everything to everyone — they're trying to be *the best* in their field. They already have proven products with strong adoption, including best-in-class GLP-1 therapies like Ozempic and Wegovy. These are not only being used for diabetes, but increasingly for obesity and even being investigated for other metabolic conditions. Their pipeline is robust, and their R&D team is full of world-class talent. Financially, they have the capital to keep innovating, and their growing global customer base provides consistent revenue and scale. Novo Nordisk isn’t just riding the wave — they’re building the surfboard. As the chronic disease burden rises, their relevance and profitability are likely to increase. In my view, they represent one of the most compelling long-term investment opportunities in the healthcare space today.

_hiddenscout

I also wonder if the GLP1 stuff is just a drag on medical companies as well.

Affectionate-Day2743

I think you're being a little shortsighted here. Sure, "millions of people are happily taking shots of GLP-1 shots" because (1) they are desperate, and (2) it's the only option they have currently. If given the option, very few people will willingly take a shot if a comparable (both in effectiveness and price) oral option is available.

Express-Mongoose-738

$VKTX - Truist JOON LEE Bottom line $VKTX VK2735 takes best of both worlds from $LLY & $ NVO obesity playbooks. VK2735 takes the more effective GLP1/GIP dual agonism strategy from $LLY &takes more seamless SQ to oral maintenance strategy from NOVO. There is a lot to like heading into Ph2 VENTURE Oral topline in the fall time frame. $PFE Bourla finally has a shot at obesity and Lilly if he has the guts to do the right things

dvdmovie1

China expires in 2026, as does Brazil and India. Sandoz already has portions of investor presentations dedicated to the generic GLP-1 opportunity. "Most significantly, its patent in China is set to expire in 2026, which means that the entry of generics could make China the largest market for semaglutide medications. Ozempic was approved in China in 2021. Currently, at least 15 Chinese pharmaceutical companies are developing generic versions, with 11 candidates in final-stage clinical trials. Major companies such as United Laboratories, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, and Huadong Medicine are expecting launches of their generics between 2025 and 2027." (https://journals.library.columbia.edu/index.php/stlr/blog/view/653) "Semaglutide will be under patent in many countries until the early 2030s. **However, its patent will expire in several countries starting in 2026. This includes large countries such as India, Canada, China, Brazil and Turkey which make up 40% of the world’s population and an estimated 33% of the world’s population of adults living with obesity (see Figure 1).** Interesting dynamics will be observed in each country, such as in India, where off-patent semaglutide will enter the market within a year of the launches of both Lilly’s Mounjaro (launched March 2025) and Novo’s Wegovy (launched June 2025), marking a short timeframe in which these originators can gain patient share before increased competition. Given India's significant role in the generic pharmaceutical market, this development is expected to be positively received by manufacturers, healthcare providers, and patients. The Indian government's Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, which incentivises domestic manufacturing, has spurred significant interest from leading domestic pharmaceutical companies in developing their own version. Over 10 companies have filed Subject Expert Committee (SEC) submissions in India to conduct Phase III studies for semaglutide, with 7 of them focusing on oral semaglutide, seemingly looking to differentiate away from the most common presentation. In addition, Indian companies have begun laying the groundwork for international expansion with Biocon partnering with Biomm who will file and commercialise their off-patent candidate in Brazil. China is an equally formidable manufacturing powerhouse and there 17 candidates have progressed to PIII clinical trials or are in the pre-market application stage, with 9 of them specifically running trials in obesity. Amongst these manufacturers are competent players with prior experience in commercialising GLP-1s and so intense competition is anticipated in the coming years." (https://www.iqvia.com/locations/emea/blogs/2025/07/off-patent-semaglutide)

Paul_Robert_

Earnings was fine, but they ran into issues with their GLP-1 trials

AskGrok

Based on premarket data from sources like Yahoo Finance and TradingView as of August 8, 2025, HIMS is trading around $16.50—down another 2% from yesterday's close after that brutal 13% earnings dump earlier this week. Your $53 calls expire today, so unless Elon tweets about hair loss cures or some GLP-1 hype ignites a 200% moonshot in the next few hours (spoiler: sentiment on X is bullish long-term but screaming "bagholder" short-term), they're expiring worthless. Prior performance shows volatility, but this post-earnings bleed isn't your friend. Cut losses and YOLO smarter next time, ape. Sources: - https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=HIMS - https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HIMS/ - https://www.cnn.com/markets/stocks/HIMS

Get_Ashy

☝️ this. It's a game of whackamole I don't believe Lilly or Novo can win. There are subreddits full of people talking about importing raw materials to compound their own GLP1s, which doesn't even get into the compounding pharmacies and doctors subscribing unique doses or additives. Relatively cheap raw materials, motivated patients, and an overpriced on-label drug from the pharma giants is a recipe for workarounds.

joeyoung043

LLY gained $100 Billion valuation when oral GLP1 phase 2 turned out good: "oh yeah it is totally justified, as oral GLP1 market is gonna be BIG!!" LLY lost $100 Billion valuation when oral GLP1 phase 3 turned out bad: "it is totally not justified. I don't understand why oral GLP-1 is important."

joeyoung043

Says a sour LLY investor. Oral GLP-1 will be massive. Me and my wife, and many friends of ours are healthy non obese people (not even over weight). But we are all eager to try out an oral GLP-1 to shave off a few pounds, given no tolerability issue. Injectable GLP-1? No thank you. Ratatrutide has a third agonist of Glucagon, which is ONLY effective for liver fat. Unless these people have liver issues like cirrhosis or MASH, triple agonist doesn't add any benefit vs GLP1/GIP

joeyoung043

This is some made up bullshit. First no rumor whatsoever. Second VKTX jump today has nothing to do with the fabricated rumor but LLY's oral GLP1 trial failure. Strong recommendation that if you don't understand the bio space, don't invest. You will get burnt.

Lonely_Refuse4988

I don’t understand the maniacal focus on oral GLP-1s. Millions of people are happily taking shots of GLP-1 agonists. Sure, oral medications offer slightly better convenience, but most people would probably prefer the best efficacy and tolerability over convenience. Lastly, Lilly has a beast of a therapy, retatrutide, that is a triple agonist, given as a shot, and will likely eclipse anything currently on market. People are begging to get into clinical trials for retatrutide. The whole oral therapy game is dumb. The recent meltdown offers a great buying opportunity!

BigWarning8696

And they'll have first crack at oral GLP now that LLY's is a dud.

d3arleader

It’s gonna come out that these GLP-1’s cause ass cancer

Apoxie

NVOs oral GLP not only has results, its much better than LLYs and its already pending approval from the US drug administration. 15,1% at highest dosis over 68 weeks vs LLYs 12,4% at highest dosis over 72 weeks

LazerBurken

They do, and it's similar to what LLY has. The problem is, the new stuff is equal or very similar to the old stuff. The new generation of GLP-1 analogues and combination treatments are not much better, if any difference at all, compared to semaglutid or tirzepatide. The oral treatments that they are all aiming for are not good enough. Generics are going to take over the market when semaglutide and tirzepatide goes off patent. Semaglutide loses its patent in 2026 in Canada and 2031 in the rest of the world.

cinciNattyLight

Have they tried a GLP-1 ice cream??? Idiots.

RemoveCommercial7558

Either retiring with a six-pack made of tendies or applying for a GLP-1 trial himself

BigWarning8696

Big miss on their oral GLP trial

Capt1an_Cl0ck

They beat earnings. Weak GLP-1 data. Still going to have revenue and it’s a drastic 110 pt single day drop. They are below 12 month low. It’s only logical it will recover some of that. If he has shares and calls for months out they should print. This seems like a lower risk play. I grabbed a couple 650 calls a few months out.

GWillHunting

Not sure where you’re getting 9.1% from. Lowered average weight by 12.4% compared to 0.9% in the placebo group. I think the results are still very marketable for patients who don’t want to deal with the injection route. Take a pill and lose 25-30 lbs on average in a year or so. And IIRC NVO’s oral GLP-1 is still a while from coming to market, so LLY will have the only oral pill in 2026

ernestothegecko

Probably driven by this news: **"Lilly's GLP-1 pill cuts body weight by 12.4% in trial, lagging Novo's injection"** https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/lillys-glp-1-pill-cuts-body-weight-by-124-trial-lagging-novos-injection-2025-08-07/

Pleasant-Hall-2898

they had disappointing trial results for GLP-1 (weight loss drug)

GWillHunting

I’m long on both with a preference to LLY for winning the long term GLP race. One thing is LLY’s oral pill had 12% weight loss vs the expected 15%. That’s a slight miss, not a huge miss. And NVO doesn’t have any oral GLP results yet, correct? So NVOs oral GLP could be lower than LLYs, and given how LLY has had superior results on Zepbound, it would surprise me if NVOs oral pill was better.

Pazzaaaaaa

I wonder how this changes the GLP-1 sector. LLY had the better injectable but NVO has the better pill, will be interesting to see over the next 2 years

CMDR_Shepard96

How was it terrible?? "INDIANAPOLIS, Aug. 7, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) today announced positive topline results from the Phase 3 ATTAIN-1 trial, evaluating orforglipron, an investigational oral glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist, in 3,127 adults with obesity, or overweight with a weight-related medical problem and without diabetes. At 72 weeks, all three doses of orforglipron, met the primary endpoint and all key secondary endpoints compared to placebo, delivering clinically meaningful weight loss as an adjunct to a healthy diet and physical activity. For the primary endpoint, orforglipron 36 mg, taken once per day without food and water restrictions, lowered weight by an average of 12.4% (27.3 lbs) compared to 0.9% (2.2 lbs) with placebo using the efficacy estimand"

dvdmovie1

"I think btc would be a good hedge but your response is constructive thank you." You're welcome and sure, some crypto but I'd have a balance of crypto and prec metals. "What’s your personal move if you don’t mind me asking." I don't see some sort of crisis occurring, but I do see higher inflation in the coming years and possibly a lesser version of 2022 sooner than later. I have done well with thematic investments over the last five years and particularly the last 3 with GLP-1/AI/etc. I am reaching a point where I'm seeing less compelling options in hot themes and have trimmed some of that but will not sell all of it; what came out of that has been re-deployed recently into real assets (although with energy, still some thematic relevance with something like nat gas given electricity demand.) Bought back some garbage stocks again lately. Already have owned Gold etfs for a while. Made major move towards international early this year. I think Russell Napier has had a couple of very good interviews in the last few years about debt and inflation in the coming years: From late last year: https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-we-are-headed-towards-a-system-of-national-capitalism-ld.12718 From 2022: https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-the-world-will-experience-a-capex-boom-ld.7606

Skibbittbeebop

VANI -- America is not only fat, but lazy, and they just announced that they are delivering the new GLP-1 agonist drugs (Ozempic) in a long term implant like birth control for degenerates. Holy shit, I think this is gonna be fucking huge. ASTS -- down, so buying more, because towers will be a thing of the past soon and my cell reception blows where I live. LETS FUCKING GOOOOOO

Starcast

Because the numbers are back down to where they were pre-GLP craze and they are still very well positioned in the diabetes space.

GWillHunting

Just wild that NVO is below its price four years ago before all the GLP-1 hype while printing money. And yet so much negative sentiment around the stock.

Stayvan

Strong H1 numbers, but the lowered full-year outlook says a lot about the headwinds they’re facing especially with compounded GLP-1s and slower market growth. The 340B adjustment was a standout too. Still, 25% profit growth is impressive.

Rumis4drinknburning

What lol GLP-1’s are their entire business. Without it, their margins would TANK and so would the multiple

MitchCurry

I commented [the below](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1je10ha/comment/mii6v8k/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) on Inspire Medical (INSP) in the March 18th daily thread: >Inspire Medical, a company with a pretty revolutionary sleep apnea treatment but is considered at risk from the GLP-1 weight loss drugs, has had inside ownership between 4.1% and 5.0% from 2020 through 2023, roughly 1.3MM shares held on average. >By the end of 2024, inside ownership had fallen by nearly 50% from the previous 4 year average. Insiders owned 696,065 shares (2.3%) when 2024 ended. Some of the share decrease is due to board members retiring (one had owned nearly 93,000 shares but isn't an insider anymore) but included in those big share decreases is the CEO (who sold 45% of his shares, nearly 300,000 of them) and the EVP of Patient Access and Therapy Development (who sold 47% of his shares, nearly 47,000 shares). >I had remained cautiously bullish on INSP as I believed the tech would continue to see strong demand and adoption even in the face of potentially decreasing cases of sleep apnea as obesity dropped from GLP-1s but this insider selling has given me second thoughts. Looks liked insiders knew what was coming. A recent 4.4% cut to FY guidance has driven the stock down 40% today. I stick think the tech is impressive and truly makes a difference but DermTech also had incredible tech that improved patient lives... and they went bankrupt because management couldn't execute. Inspire may rebound a bit. They may get bought out at a slight premium. This may be the bottom. That's fine. I'm out. Sold for a 68% loss (SPY was +44% and QQQ was +58% over the time I held) and put my remaining money into VOO, QQQ, AVUV, and AVDV. [One position closer to my target of 15-25 core positions](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1merxze/comment/n6cyo8k/?context=3&utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) and the rest of my money in those 4 ETFs.

AttemptBeneficial627

HIMS will be fine. Their numbers were great, this is about the GLP-1 compounding issues. You can't pull cheaper drugs from the market arbitrarily. Regardless they will keep selling them. Get long it goes higher.

Playful-Doctor2087

The company was on its way up even before they got into GLP-1s. Think they'll be fine. Don't know about the stock though. I originally bought a bunch of shares at $6 and sold after it went way up to like $50.  If it goes down to a reasonable price I'll buy back in. 

Deep_CFC

That’s because it is an amazing growth company lol. Growing quarterly revenue from 19m in 2019 to to 586M beating every quarter since the company going public is beyond impressive. Sure core growth slowed down and for the first time they missed the streets guidance (generally tracked to their own guidance tho). Which company with a base of half billion in revenue is growing sequentially by double digits?! Yes GLP-1 revenue is important tho and requires attention till it’s not.

RetardedChimpanzee

Wasn’t their main driver that they had GLP-1 drugs in stock, where other doctors didn’t? then the FDA flooded the market.

Retropixl

It’s been picked up by retail as this amazing growth company, in reality it’s a company that is heavily reliant on GLP-1 drugs and they’re now being challenged in court over it.

BlackAdder7

The earnings miss is the least of the problems for HIMS. How will they explain illegal sale of GLP-1??? The FDA aproval for them expired in may! And NVO just got sued by shareholders because od poor sales. You bet they are going to sue HIMS to save their bottom line.

nopenope12345678910

They are propped up on GLP-1 sales which they can’t legally compound anymore.

MienaiYurei

Nvm did some research. The lost of GLP meds are huge imo. Perhaps they are popular but diet med lost is a huge revenue lost especially in the fat ass filled America if it's so huge even in Korea where I live. Can't see them having a buish case unless they have so much subscribers that does nothing but mindlessly paying the subscription fee of a whopping $99 per month.

bearhunter429

>Novo Nordisk (NVO) is facing a shareholder lawsuit due to its recent decision to lower its full-year growth outlook for revenue and operating profit, citing headwinds in the GLP-1 market. Why not? We fired BLS lady for calculating weak labor report LMAO🤌

BlackAdder7

NVO was just hit with an investor class action over revenue falloff. This heavily increases the pressure on the new CEO to crack down on competition meaning time is seriously ticking for HIMS as they will likely be the first victim. What hims is doing with GLP-1 has not been FDA approved since may. Something to keep in mind if you are planing on playing HIMS today.

Dry_Roof6413

Safety profile comparison – Pemvidutide vs Survodutide vs Retatrutide: Pemvidutide (GLP-1 + glucagon): Well-tolerated, GI side effects (nausea ~30–50%), no increase in heart rate (key differentiator), low discontinuation rate, liver-friendly — promising for NASH. Survodutide (GLP-1 + glucagon): Similar GI profile, but heart rate increase (~2–4 bpm) observed. Higher dropout rate at top doses. Strong liver fat reduction but more tolerability issues vs pemvidutide. Retatrutide (GLP-1 + GIP + glucagon): Potent weight loss but highest GI burden (nausea up to 70%+), notable heart rate increase. Still early in safety evaluation. Max efficacy, but tolerability is a concern. 👉 Bottom line: Pemvidutide stands out for its clean heart profile, lower dropout, and strong NASH/liver safety — may be the best balance of efficacy + tolerability so far.

Dry_Roof6413

Pemvidutide has demonstrated a favorable safety profile, particularly for a molecule that combines GLP-1 and glucagon receptor agonism. The GI side effects are consistent with other incretins and manageable. The absence of heart rate increase and low discontinuation rate make it a strong candidate for long-term use in obesity and NASH.

ohgodthehorror95

I think losing that GLP money, if that ever happens, will destroy their share price far more than just a weak quarterly earnings reports or soft forward guidance ever could. But yeah. Regardless, I wouldn't be surprised if HIMS issues some cautious FY2025 guidance due to general macroeconomic uncertainty anyway. Whether that potential outcome has already been fully priced-in or not leading into Monday is another story. My thesis is that it hasn't. And that they could end up pulling back to as low as $40 per share. But hey, for all I know they could crush EPS and revenue expectations and end up issuing rockstar FY2025 guidance.

ohgodthehorror95

Yeah I retract my statement about them having a grim long term outlook. In the immediate future though, losing that GLP revenue stream would be devastating to their current valuation (at this exact point in time). If they lose that, there will be a lot of financial analysts deeply slashing their 12 month price forecast for HIMS shares.

Otherwise-Ad6670

GLP-1 isn’t the only source of revenue, they are leader in telehealth and got many streams of revenue which they can use to off set loss from glp1 compounding ban. I am bullish long term on them too, but short term they lost partnership with NVO and current admin came out to say that Medicare might start accepting weight loss drugs into its services there would be no reason to buy compounded drugs from HIMs when you can get original through your insurance for free pretty much

ohgodthehorror95

I don't play options so idk. I'm not bearish on HIMS in the ultra long term, but I am very bearish at its current valuation. And if the FDA ends up ruling against compounded GLP-1 drugs, which I believe is very possible, then HIMS is completely and utterly boned

moazzam0

Centene outlook already bottomed when they reported Q2 guidance. This was evidenced by the fact that the stock didn't set a new low below $22.35, despite several other health insurers setting new lows this week and the broader market selling off 2-3%. What was the pivot? Management revealed that the hit to Centene before margins normalize comfortably allows for a profitable 2025 and 2026. The Medicare segment is profitable and growing again. Trump admin put pressure on drug prices and gave $36 billion to Medicaid/Medicare for GLP-1. Republicans don't actually want health insurance premiums to rise 20%+ for millions of Republican voters months before the 2026 midterms. They will implement their own substitute for ACA subsidies that keeps premiums low, but also allows them a political win against ACA.

Scoredit7

Not much discussion on here since earnings. They were mostly in line though it would have been nice to seen an uptick. However, per comments on the call, we know they FYQ126 is going to be excellent (this is basically next quarter for them). You can use the Quartr app online for free to read the transcript. My key highlights below (all numbers in CAD): \- BioStrand growth over 180%, albeit from a very small base, hope to see this number sustain or grow \- BioStrand gross margin c.90% \- Adjusted EBITDA loss to $316k (vs 1.7m last quarter). Take this data with a pinch of salt, adjusted EBITDA is not a real metric and no one cares what they cook up as a datapoint. It does just mean they continue to get close to breakeven, which I hope happens within the next 2-3 quarters \- Orders from new clients up 93% yoy, 80% qoq \- Lab divestiture in final parts of the process, expected within next 2-3 weeks \- FY25 full year revenues were 24.5m \- $10.8m in cash in the treasury, expect lab sale to add to this significantly \- GLP-1: 2 partners agt the moment, one for drug product manufacturing and one for administration (has done the preclinical design and validation in terms of how to execute on preclinical IND-enabling data). IPA will not take this to the clinic themselves, but have a financial sponsor \- For the $8m (up to 10m) partner, expect to see those revenues come in next quarter, though not in lump sum form. I suspect this will be anywhere from 1-3m next q \- Near 100% success rate for these programs on the IPA platforms \- Expect progressive ramp up for fully in silico decision making from majors That's a few of the highlights. Next quarter is going to be very exciting IMO. We should add 10-20m to the treasury from the sale. Also will see sales ramp up but also have a gap from the lab sales, so flat sales would be really great to see. Time will tell

Pazzaaaaaa

Are you scared of a bounce? Retail loves piling into the GLP sector

roxrv

As much as I think 25-50% of Americans will be on GLP-1 drugs in 10 years, pharma is too political for that to translate to guaranteed profit. Both parties pay lip service to lower drug prices. They're both incompetent and will fail to meaningfully do so, but this keeps a permanent downward pressure on pharma stocks. I've been looking for an angle on this that isn't so politically exposed, but straight up investing in LLY isn't much better than roulette IMO.

AwkwardObjective5360

They do work, I am on one, I am still fat though, just not severely obese. Its way more effective than just dieting and exercise. I'm down 50 lbs in 9 months with with GLP-1 plus diet/exercise vs about 10 lbs the prior year doing diet/exercise alone.

PleasantAnomaly

The rate negotiations were well under way. UNH pulled guidance May 13th. That being said, it's been discussed at length about the possibility that these GLP-1 Drugs might be included, given the widespread adoption. I doubt that companies like Centene and United would fail to recognize such a trend

BlackAdder7

HIMS puts because of a higher probability for litigation as HIMS continues to sell compounded GLP-1s at scale under the 503A personalization exemption. Deteriorating core growth that puts pressure on the company’s full-year guidance combined with near ATH stock price.

Avish_Golakiya

Yeah, I'm bullish on the VKTX asset too. The GIP agonism is the real deal for superior weight loss over GLP-1 alone. Safety looks standard for the class (mild GI issues), which is exactly what you want to see.

NewActionPotential

Semaglutide (Ozempic) is now an older 3rd generation GLP-1 drug. Novo Nordisk really only has one weight-loss peptide in their pipeline and that is Cagrilintide, an Amylin agonoist; which is going to be combined with Semaglutide, "CagriSema". Eli Lilly currently has Tirzepatide (Zepbound), which is a GLP-1 & GIP agonist, and is superior to Semagultide. Eli Lilly also has Retatrutide (No trademark name yet) that is a GLP-1, GIP, and Glucagon agonists in the final stage of Phase 3 trials. People on grey-market peptide forums, including me, have been injecting Retatrutide with Cagrilintide and been achieving massive results for any body type. Basically: Semaglutide is Playstation 1 Tirzepatide is Playstation 4 Retatrutide is Playstation 5 Pro Caagrilintide is Deep Learning Super Sampling.

Get_Ashy

Your theory here is that: 1) a federal agency will crackdown on a low effort loophole after all of the DOGE-ing, 2) that companies will begin covering GLP1s for weight loss which they haven't done thus far, and 3) that Trump will get these covered under medicare/medicaid despite budget cuts... capped off by a "see you in a year" statement. I simply do not think the math checks out.

Get_Ashy

Raw ingredients are cheap and plentiful. Consumers are motivated to find workarounds because employer health plans largely won't cover the med. Doctors and pharmacists have a lot of latitude to compound different dosages and add things like B12 to make it a tougher legal argument for both the FDA and Novo. For that matter, Novo isn't even the only GLP1 on the market. Next gen GLP agonists are already in clinical trials. I'm not saying Novo is a bad investment, simply that your logic around GLP1s as bulletproof DD is wrong.

PleasantAnomaly

>Insurance coverage for such drugs is currently typically approved when patients have other conditions that are often tied to obesity, such as diabetes, heart disease and cancer. The new proposed plan would permit state Medicaid programs and Medicare Part D insurance plans to voluntarily cover GLP-1 drugs, including those from market leaders Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the report said.

lickled_piver

There is no world where GLP-1 counts as gene therapy. Gene therapy typically refers to viral vectors (for treating genetic disorders by editing or adding to the patients genome). GLP-1s are pretty straightforward peptides. Viral vectors cost millions per "dose" but it's one "dose" per patient (dose in quotes because depending on the platform and indication it may actually be multiple injections). GLP-1s are in the hundreds per dose ballpark but dosed weekly.

Revelati123

Uhh... Yeah, for the first few years, until the knock on effects of not having to deal with the co morbidities of diabetes, heart disease, and cancers associated with morbid obesity kick in. If everyone who wanted GLP1 could get GLP1 health insurance would become even more obscenely profitable than it is. The minute a generic is available, the insurance industry rocket is blowing through the moon and headed for Alpha Centauri.

rslarson147

GLP-1 medications have nothing to do with gene therapy.

Get_Ashy

Just about every compounding pharmacy in the US is making GLP1 alts and adding things like B12 to get around enforcement. Individuals are also importing raw materials and making their own. Betting on Novo based on this is exactly as idiotic as you think.