Reddit Posts
Lexaria Bioscience (NASDAQ:LEXX) Letter to Shareholders from 1/24/24
The hedgies who sniffed out Wirecard have a new target: the AI bubble
check out Hydreight, it is like Uber For Nurses, and it's parent company Victory Square Tech is Undervalued to its NAV by over 80%
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals: Abbreviated New Drug Application For A GLP-1 Agonist?
Upcoming ALT conference, Thoughts?
Upcoming ALT Conference? Thoughts or predictions?
Altimmune and Viking are the last two companies left for Pharma to FOMO into the Obesity market
Altimmune and Viking are the last two companies left for Pharma to FOMO into the Obesity market
Mounjaro is more effective than Ozempic for weight loss in overweight and obese adults, real-world study says
Eli Lilly $LLY weight loss drug still needs a green-signal
Eli Lilly's Zepbound got FDA approval and expected to outcompete Ozempic
Eli Lilly's Zepbound got FDA approval and expected to outcompete Ozempic
Eli Lilly's Zepbound got FDA approval and expected to outcompete Ozempic
FDA approves Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide for obesity, paving way for even wider use of blockbuster drug
Highly shorted biotech stocks like BEAM and DNA (Ginkgo Bioworks) getting squeezed right now
Wall Street hikes forecasts for anti-obesity drug sales to $100B and beyond.
Medical instruments, devices and facilities pummeled today from weight-loss drugs. Overreaction?
Eli Lilly stock hits new 52-week high amid Ozempic study news
NVO YOLO update - 21k to 70k. I sold some NVO and bought some LLY, details inside
Forbes - Walmart Says Ozempic Could Be Impacting Food Sales: ‘Slight Pullback In Overall Basket’
Looking for advice for ETFs around Health, esp GLP-1 Agonistics etc
What are your thoughts about Weight Watchers (WW)? I prescribe weight loss medications, and they are very good. WW could be primed.
NVO has majority market share for obesity care which has TAM 50x from current market. Why are calls so cheap ? 20k YOLO inside
WeightWatchers International: Meme Stock Potential
ORMP - Opinions about Oramed's upcoming phase 3 results that are expected in January.
FDA has approved tirzepatide for treating Type 2 Diabetes: Eli Lilly is about to moon
Curative Biotech Announces Toxicology Studies Under Good Laboratory Practices (GLP) for Metformin Eye Drop Formulations for Treatment of Macular Degeneration
IPA Updates on Investigational New Drug (IND) Enabling Program for PolyTope® TATX-03
Skye Bioscience reports positive results for SB-100 in GLP toxicology study; Phase I clinical trial expected in 2Q 2022
POAI Drops PIONEER Initiative Preliminary Results: Let's Get Parabolic
$RDGL Vivos Inc A Human and Animal Cancer Treatment
Vivos Inc A Human and Animal Cancer Treatment
$RDGL Vivos Inc A Human and Animal Cancer Treatment
$PROG: PGN-OB2, not sure why no one is talking about this, it's a GLP-1 agonist, or a potential oral anti-diabetic medication.
GLP oversold on multiple timeframes, shorted and thinly traded
GLP oversold on multiple timeframes, shorted and thinly traded
$VTVT, severely undervalued biopharmaceutical company (diabetes) for the long term, with short-term catalyst this week DD
$VTVT, severely undervalued biopharmaceutical company (diabetes) for the long term, with short-term catalyst
Mentions
I hear Eli Lilly is coming out with a new GLP1 without the muscle loss...seems bullish.
This one is different, it includes Maintenance Extension Study results showing Enobosarm reduces weight regain, prevents fat regain, and preserves muscle after stopping semaglutide, unlike prior updates that focused only on muscle preservation and fat loss during GLP-1 treatment. It also confirms a Q3 2025 FDA meeting
I'll tell you what. If you want to donate to a charity that provides - of all things - soda to the needy and provide demonstration of your donation, I'll match it. However, as a PhD working in pharmaceuticals (generics, to make drugs cheaper), any donations I make will be to something more reasonable than an exacerbation of the healthcare crisis and the absurd profitability of semaglutide products (GLP-1 inhibitors) for diabetes and weight loss induced in no small part by the considerable irresponsibility of the masses on sugar consumption and lack of exercise. AI personally don't consume soda at all, because each can has about 40mg and 10% of your net daily calories, totally empty. Now, most folks - particularly those on govnrment programs - are unlikely to do this proactively, thus the need among many for GLP-1 inhibitors to essentially short-circuit their metabolism into telling them they no longer crave something at all so as to eliminate the indulgence. There are a variety of ways to stem (even STEM) the flow of subtly destructive substances, be it environmental science or the law therein or healthcare equivalents, but if you don't know the Dr. Science fundamentals of it, it's hard to say much about the Mr. Esquire legal and political policies around it, much less simply turn it into an "enjoyment based" budget civil rights movement here. In the end, diabetes creeping up on you doesn't really bring enjoyment epidemiologically, Mr. Esquire.
The stock movements track GLP news. I believe that is overblown. HIMS is a vertically integrated technology company with 80% gross margins. They lead with customer obsession in a highly scalable, personalized format, lowering the barriers to affordable healthcare in a historically undisrupted market with a significant total addressable market. I’m buying more
I'm already invested. The moment their Phase III results come back positive, every single pharma company will want a piece of this as a rider to their GLP medications.
If GLP1’s receive any negative press, i feel HIMS will crash heavily. Just on sentiment. Its a smaller percentage of its business though.
I want to invest in HIMS but I cant get past the Mass Compounding accusations from Novo. How do you feel about the claim of Mass Compounding? If a drug is short supply the FDA allows pharmacies to compound a patient tailored dosage pharmaceutical currently under patent. However the FDA already ruled that GLP 1 is no longer in short supply and all three GLP 1 receptor drugs are under Patent until 2030. Pharmacy/Telehealth companies like BlueChew are able to compound Viagra (generic Sildenfil) because the drug is generic, is a unique dosage and does not hold a New Drug patent with the FDA.
HIMS without their precious GLP-1 fat loss drug is like sydney sweeney without her massive puppies. How are they come up with another golden goose Glp-1 now that Novo Nordisk cut off their supply? Highly doubt Eli Lilly is willing to step in.
I dunno, man. You may just want to cut losses. They lost the GLP1 deal that was pushing the stock higher. Without a replacement growth factor, do you think the stock will more than double in a couple weeks?
GLP legislation could kill this stock overnight. As is, it has a ~10b valuation on less than 2b in revenue with slowing growth. I presume that it's still profitable even with the Novo deal ending, so it's not the worst stock I've seen pumped on Reddit. But it's such a risky business that it's valuation makes no sense to me.
I think overblown, they still have GLPs so makes no difference to them. If you want branded GLP, they can still subscribe it from ELI Lilly. They sell compounded.
It's 200M for their entire GLP and obesity products. So the Wegovy hit would be in the 10s of millions max esp since they only started selling them literally a month ago
Yep, it is. Compounded GLP1s are around 20% of the revenue, with most coming from other solutions. The compounded sales are legal and legit, they arent the only ones continuing it. Novo definitely expected them to stop selling Compounded Semaglutide and push their Wegovy. HIMS didnt budge and kept both. Novo then pulled out and shits on them. Buy.
Talks broke down after Hims refused to halt enrichment of their GLP-1s, insisting that the program was peaceful and that they had every right to do so under international law.
Wasn't GLP-1 only 15% of their revenue stream as well? So in my eyes an overreaction.
they knew all of this before the partnerships. My guess is when hims started selling wegoovy and marketing it, they also heavily marketed their own GLP products along side it, so they probably baited and switched some people, NVO realized this and canceled, or there was some hand shake deal where they would stop the GLP and focus solely on Wegoovy. Just a guess though.
HIMS gets tanked on any negative news. Someone on here had a Reddit post last year buying PUTS before they got hammered by the FDA declaring GLP-1 drugs were no longer ‘in a shortage.’ Could be OP
Go buy it They can buy altimmune and finish the testing- then have their own GLP1. ALTs market cap is 1/4 of what HIMS lost today
It seems like HIMS should just go buy Altimmune (alt) and bring their own GLP1 to market Not sure why they let their stock price be dictated by Novo - they’re down 30% today and it’s almost ridiculous
Hims makes compounded GLP-1s as well as selling Wegovy. The compounded drugs are made (allegedly) in China. The FDA allows compounding while drugs are in shortage. Now the FDA has said Wegovy is no longer in shortage however, it’s super lucrative for hims. So they are using another FDA grey area/loophole called “personalization” to say they are making drugs for the individual that are different to wegovy. In this case I think it’s adding B12 to the GLP-1. Novo seems unhappy with this arrangement now bc their drugs are probably still more expensive, but Hims is using the name brand legitimacy to draw customers in and then likely pushing them towards the compounded option that’s more profitable for Hims.
You figure out the math on how much HIMS business is reliant on the GLP drugs and see how much more downside there is
I guess you havent studied their financials, they dont need GLP-1 their balance sheet doesnt account for GLP-1
Wasn't the compounded GLP-1 banned by FDA earlier this year (that's what caused HIMS to drop substantially earlier this year)? >According to Novo Nordisk, the decision comes after Hims & Hers allegedly failed to comply with laws prohibiting mass sales of compounded drugs Seems that's what this statement is in reference to. Though HIMS might have a bigger issue now with FDA if that is the case.
Hims kept selling knockoff versions of Wegovy, and NVO said they didn't like their deceptive marketing of calling them "personalized" medications to get around the law banning generic GLP-1s (weight loss shots)
They still have their own proprietary GLP-1 drug, but I agree that this is far from the end since the collab Wegovy iteration was a way superior product according to research and sales numbers
Not disagreeing with your thesis. Here is just more context. The reason the stock is down is because of GLP-1s (in part). Discretionary surgical procedures are down and growth is predicted to be negative. 75M shares are in the float. The total institutional position is \~40%, not 89%. Here is the recent institutional data. Our data is not lagging one quarter. This is up-to-date. The last column is the percentage change in holdings you can see that institutions have been selling the recent price jump since the company acknowledged the offer in January. [https://ir.surgerypartners.com/news-releases/news-release-details/surgery-partners-inc-confirms-receipt-non-binding-acquisition](https://ir.surgerypartners.com/news-releases/news-release-details/surgery-partners-inc-confirms-receipt-non-binding-acquisition) If these "whales" felt the company was worth $25 or higher they wouldn't have sold for $23 and $22/share. Now there are often games being played. It is possible the stock was shorted last week just so a fund could buy the stock. Best of luck. || || |[5/13/2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1638833/000127417325000145/0001274173-25-000145-index.htm)|JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC|11.6M|12.1M|9%|\-1%| |[5/11/2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1638833/000090221925000199/0000902219-25-000199-index.htm)|Wellington Management Group LLP|6.7M|5.6M|6%|1%| |[5/11/2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1638833/000031506625001577/0000315066-25-001577-index.htm)|FMR LLC|10.0M|16.1M|8%|\-5%| |[4/28/2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1638833/000205211325001832/0002052113-25-001832-index.htm)|BlackRock, Inc.|5.5M|7.3M|4%|\-2%| |[2/11/2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1638833/000031506625000813/0000315066-25-000813-index.htm)|FMR LLC|16.1M|18.2M|13%|\-2%| |[2/9/2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1638833/000090221925000073/0000902219-25-000073-index.htm)|Wellington Management Group LLP|5.6M|8.9M|5%|\-3%|
Not disagreeing with your thesis. Here is just more context. The reason the stock is down is because of GLP-1s (in part). Discretionary surgical procedures are down and growth is predicted to be negative. 75M shares are in the float. The total institutional position is \~40%, not 89%. Here is the recent institutional data. Our data is not lagging one quarter. This is up-to-date. The last column is the percentage change in holdings you can see that institutions have been selling the recent price jump since the company acknowledged the offer in January. [https://ir.surgerypartners.com/news-releases/news-release-details/surgery-partners-inc-confirms-receipt-non-binding-acquisition](https://ir.surgerypartners.com/news-releases/news-release-details/surgery-partners-inc-confirms-receipt-non-binding-acquisition) If these "whales" felt the company was worth $25 or higher they wouldn't have sold for $23 and $22/share. Now there are often games being played. It is possible the stock was shorted last week just so a fund could buy the stock. Best of luck. || || |[5/13/2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1638833/000127417325000145/0001274173-25-000145-index.htm)|JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC|11.6M|12.1M|9%|\-1%| |[5/11/2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1638833/000090221925000199/0000902219-25-000199-index.htm)|Wellington Management Group LLP|6.7M|5.6M|6%|1%| |[5/11/2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1638833/000031506625001577/0000315066-25-001577-index.htm)|FMR LLC|10.0M|16.1M|8%|\-5%| |[4/28/2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1638833/000205211325001832/0002052113-25-001832-index.htm)|BlackRock, Inc.|5.5M|7.3M|4%|\-2%| |[2/11/2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1638833/000031506625000813/0000315066-25-000813-index.htm)|FMR LLC|16.1M|18.2M|13%|\-2%| |[2/9/2025](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1638833/000090221925000073/0000902219-25-000073-index.htm)|Wellington Management Group LLP|5.6M|8.9M|5%|\-3%|
BREAKING: US MILITARY TO STOCKPILE GLP-1s, FIGHTING RECRUIT OBESITY, BOOSTING RANKS
“Pump and dump!” the bear’s favorite term when they’re scared and short. Imagine traders posting non stop about a biotech stock like $GLMD you know, one with a billion dollar GLP-1 catalyst, no debt, cash on hand, and trading 90% under its fair value. What a scam, right? 😂🤣 It’s almost like people post when they find something undervalued. Not really that hard to understand. The float’s tight, shorts are sweating, and every day we get closer to catalyst windows. But sure, keep yelling “scam” while we load at levels you’ll wish you bought. I know you wanted it to be for your own shorting interests but this isn’t a pump, get ready for the ride of your life. 🩳
Hahaha. That’s funny. GLMD Oh no, GLMD is based in Israel… so I guess that means it’s instantly worthless, right? Meanwhile, it’s trading below cash, way under book, has zero debt, and GLP-1 + fibrosis catalysts that could ignite anyday. B maybe yelling “WAR!” will somehow increase the float. Spoiler it won’t. Double digit potential, the war will pass. The medicine is world wide. Targeting many countries that having nothing to do with this war
It honestly still does not matter. I have been watching Shkreli get pummeled on his short against quantum stocks since November…..he thinks it’s an easy play, but his margin calls would say otherwise. He should have walked away months ago. So many investors missed BTC, missed AI, missed GLP-1s….quantum is the new story and all that money still one the sidelines will not miss this play.
> “At particular risk are brands that cater to lower-income consumers — a category to which McDonald's belongs. That's because spending on food away from home among lower-income households who start using GLP-1 drugs declines and tends to remain depressed, according to the report, creating "material implications for chains with broad mass-market exposure." Losing the lower-income consumers couldn’t have anything to do with the fact that their prices have doubled in the last few years?!?!?GLP-1 use is such a stretch for this argument.
I second this, their hit is coming from GLP1 drugs and the fact they didn't bring them up on the earnings call. Blamed it on Tariffs instead.
I am already in. Have been DCAing for the past 3 months or so. If there Phase 3 trial data comes back positive (anywhere near the 71% their previous data suggested) every big-boy GLP-1 producer will want a piece of this.
If the Ozempic segment actually ate salad, they would not need GLP-1. I Think MCD know their segment quite well.
Come on Fed Just cut rates to zero so Taco and bull can have all their wildest dreams come true. Invest every extra cent to Cover the country with datacenters and robotaxis. Make GLP1 shots mandatory for all Mericans!
Nothing in their business model has changed. That’s bad. No salads on the menu anymore for the Ozempic crowd. A growing portion of their customers won’t be able to eat their food as GLP-1s become more and more popular. If they don’t bring back salads, McD may follow Wendy’s stock into the toilet.
Why the downgrade now when their food has been pricey for years now yet they continuously missed revenue estimates? Not to mention GLP-1 is not anything new.
it's not big deal: 1. At least half of people GLP-1 drugs discontinue them after 1-2 years, for various reasons. No one knows why this is exactly, but it's common. 2. GLP-1 drugs work well for only 20-40% of users, who lose a lot of weight. Individual responses are highly variable. About half lose a modest amount of weight to none, so these people are most likely to stop taking the drug. This means even with full market penetration and compliance, there will still be lots of overweight of obese people. 3. McDonald's can respond by raising prices to negate loss of sales. Smaller portion sizes means potentially higher profit margins. They can offer a greater variety of items optimized for GLP-1 drugs, like food with higher protein content.
Overreaction. McDonald's is popular with the lower income classes, they don't have insurance to cover the ongoing cost of Ozempic and other GLP-1 drugs. The decline in prices is because McDonald's prices are too high to attract said customers.
GLP-1 sure is a funny way of spelling double dip recession.
GLP-1 is bad for American capitalism, ban it Bobby!
GLP-1 is a Dem conspiracy to destroy American capitalism, ban it RFK Jr.!
It’s what Trump called Ozympic/GLP1s in a press conference the other day. “I have a friend, he’s a billionaire and he called me and said President, I’m on this damn fat shot. And I said ‘it’s not working’”.
It's not about GLP-1 drugs, it's the fact that McDonald's food is hugely overpriced and people decided they could go to any sit down restaurant and get better food for cheaper, or better yet, just eat at home.
GLP1s in particular also make deep fried and junk food less appealing for a lot of people taking them
They have already been granted secondary extensions in the US and EU. They lost this in China. They will now need to defend these extensions, more so in EU than US but still. An example is Hims, they lost the legal rights to compound but then settled with Novo to keep supplying. This is less lucrative than novo selling sema products. The patents protect at the core " the molecule" and then secondary are things like "dosage, use, formulation, delivery, etc". Why it is important the china is going to be able to start in 2026 going full throttle is both readying capacity, opening in their own market, and critically starting to produce biosimilars or adjacent that can challenge secondary patents. No this does not necessarily grant them AMD/NVDA status. They have unique and proprietery methods of MFG that others can't replicate. Here we have a drug class, that shares a common MFG method, although some are more efficient than others. For example tirzepatide is more efficient to mfg than cagrilintide and semaglutide (comparing synthetic route). In the pharma world the leader of this can change based upon clinical. A better glp-1 is a better glp-1, abd much of the actual MFG and development is outsourced (which is where I come in). So the only IP advantage they have is in drug screening and familiarity with the market. Everything else can be contracted. Right now almost every single new peptide project bid I see is GLP-1, everyone and their mom is trying to bring one to market. The advantage lily and novo have now is they arent at market and there is less pricing pressure, so they get to really juice those margins. Over time margins will compress as both generic and new compounds flood the market. Taking the market is just a matter of efficacy and cost. If there is a drug product that outperforms and/or has wildly cost effective mfg they can. For insulin its already super efficient and margin compressed everywhere outside the US. Just not much market to get into. You would have to deploy massive capital to chase down not much return. And the market you can get wild margins on (US) you couldn't sell to anyway. How insulin still is priced as it is here... well you should write to your senator and ask them how much longer they wish to keep this going. Anyway this is true for glp-1s as well. Consider the capital investment to start manufacturing. Unless its a clear winner it may not even be worth trying, especially when you consider opportunity cost of other investment or drug products.
GLP1's would like to have a word.
Thanks, so either way they have to fight for extension in the US at very least? What do you make of the “moat”? Novo and Lilly look like they’ve been developing GLP-1s since the early 2000s. Does that give them an NVDA & AMD status in GLP-1s or is it easy for others to copy? It seems like GLP-1s are one thing, but getting it to stay around for a week/not require daily injection have been the biggest challenges (along with efficacy). You think others can come in and take the market? If so why didn’t anyone take insulin market from these two? Thanks for the help!
Well, they are developing a GLP-1 pill which may attract more customers and would be cheaper than the precise injectable pens that dissuade many from trying it.
CAPL, GLP, DLK Anyone else buying these? Essentially pipeline partnerships with a good yield that isn't taxable. (Its defined as a "partnerahip" payout, not a "dividend"
HIMS is a game of chicken now. Ever since lost rights to bootleg GLP-1s it's 📉
Liraglutide for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes, in addition to GLP1R by NVO will be a "blockbuster", I would be accumulating here, not shorting!!!
Eli Lilly GLP-1 offerings are much better offerings than Novo. Hard to compete and they aren’t a US company
🚨🚨🚨 dont miss this life changing opportunity’ 🚨 Best Sub$20M Setup in the Entire Market? The obesity stock trend is just heating up and $GLMD might be the hidden gem everyone’s missing. We’ve already seen what happens when this theme catches fire $LLY, $HIMS, and $VKTX have all made lifechanging moves thanks to their exposure to the booming GLP-1 weight loss sector. But the one name no one’s watching yet is $GLMD and the setup here is insane. Tiny float (2.2M), over $6 cash per share, and a market cap under $5M… this is arguably the most asymmetric opportunity in the entire market right now. While others have already exploded, $GLMD is coiled and ready, with utilization nearing 100%, float locking underway, and a chart that screams “news is coming.” Shorts are starting to cover, but intraday shorting is surging meaning they’re running out of ammo fast. This is a classic float trap in progress. You’re not late… you’re early. This isn’t just undervalued it’s a loaded spring with GLP-1, NASH, and M&A potential all on deck. When it breaks out, it could be violent. This setup has everything low float, high short interest, insane valuation gap, and catalysts. It’s not just a trade… it’s a potential 1000% squeeze. Most people will laugh now, then chase it at $10+. That’s how it always goes. Let them call it a pump. Let them ignore it. I’ll bring eyes to this because it deserves attention and people deserve to catch it early. 💊 $LLY, $HIMS, and $VKTX already ran. $GLMD could be the final GLP-1 sleeper no one sees coming… yet.
HIMS and their now banned bootleg GLP-1s is toast. GRND and buttsecks is forever.
Check out VANI, they have 2 different businesses in the same company, one that focuses on Neuralink type implants, and the other focusing on GLP-1 diabetes weight loss implants…shareholders of VANI will get shares of the new company after the break up in Q3.
Down...falls? Big pharma saved millions of lives just with covid vaccines and now they're making money hand over fist with GLP-1's. They're doing *just* fine
Trump tariffs aren’t that much of a headwind for them. They just acquired massive sterile fill finish sites (one in Indiana) to produce GLP-1s. Nordisk’s largest shareholder, Novo Holdings, acquired Catalent in that deal for the manufacturing expertise.
I do FP&A for a PBM. Everybody was pricing in GLP-1s being insane blockbusters. They haven’t been. Utilization is much less than expected. For Novo, it doesn’t have a stranglehold on the niche, like Humira in anti inflams did for awhile.
Actually with GLP-1s I think America *is* getting healthier
Hi literal peptide MFG specialist here. I can speak to some straight technical items in the space. 1. Patent expiration is big. And novo has had little luck so far on evergreening it. 2026 is next year. Sema on the brink of a being a generic and mfgs are ready and waiting. 2. Sema and their next gen sema/cagri both are not outperforming trizepatide. 3. Trizepatide is wildly scalable, probably one of the best peptides I've seen in my career for both relative complexity and ease of mfg. Sema both recombinant and synthetic route not nearly as easy to mfg. 4. LLY has also recently announced small molecule API oral GLP one. (This is the news that crushed viking who just took trizepatide and modified it for oral dosage). 5. Every major pharma company is trying to bring their own GLP to market. Throw this all together and there is major market dominance and price pressure on Novo. A big pivot was their cagri/sema not outperforming trizepatide. Investors likely looking forward and realizing that although they will continue to print obscene amounts of money, that they aren't leading this space anymore. The forward outlook of Novo growing rapidly in the glp space is not as good after the last year or so of data. Again this doesn't mean they out of the race, just being priced from taking the gold to silver. Price range is much more in the moderate growth projections.
Blue Cross Blue shield a major health insurance in the Northeast US is not going to cover GLP-1's in 2026!
I think the biggest headwind going forward for their stock price is that Eli Lilly has a ton of trial data coming down the pipe in the next 10 months on both tirzepatide & orforglipron(their oral GLP-1 drug) AND their next gen retatrutide. That'll be a big headwind. Additionally Boehringer Ingelheim will have trial data for their drug survodutide in early 2026. I think they'll continue to grow but I think for now Lilly is going to take control of the GLP1 market for a while. They've just got more and better products.
Retratude is the best GLP1 injection on (or close to on) the market at present; perception is Novo lagging behind there. The oral GLP1, as you say, should be a game changer. Undervalued though - bullshit like a .5% difference in effectiveness hammers their share price.
GLP1 - Failed Paxrovid - Ending Seagen - So so Vaccine and other major product - patent ended or gonna end Can't get that juicy dividend forever cuz it's from cutting budget, squeezing blood vessels.
It’s better. My assumption would be it will still have a significant amount statistically with more studies, but the stuff out now is crazy like 25-40% of weight lost is muscle. Antibody Activin T2 receptor blockers are in the pipeline that will actually stop most muscle loss with GLP-1s. But all antibody drugs have the potential to increase infections and typically cancers too 🤷♂️
What? GLP-1 doesn't cause cardiac muscle wastage
Imagine getting on a GLP-1 because you’re too mentally weak to stop eating absolute garbage and then they come out and say “Oops it may cause wasting of cardiac muscle.”  The long term follow ups are going to be INSANE.
There is no shortage in GLP-1 drugs anymore so compounded generic versions cannot be legally made and sold. Novo nordisk recently partnered with Hims who used to make those generics, to now sell Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy. CVS Caremark also partnered with Novo Nordisk to prioritize selling Wegovy to its customers. Ro and LifeMD are also partnered to promote Wegovy.
Didn’t some insurance companies just announce impending $200 caps on GLP-1’s? That might counteract the recent LifeMD news
Fast mover has limits because those drugs 1) require a shot 2) are expensive as hell now. Whoever gets the first GLP pill to market at a low cost will "win". But that isn't Viking.
You're true that they are fueled by GLP compunds, but they had strong growth before and without it. Additionally, if GLP-1s have side effects, they can put their customers on compunds with extra contents that mitigate those side effects. They have more margins on that, and also more customer retention with those customized compunds compared to the branded ones, as the patients have less side effects. I have no idea where theyll be in 1-2 years from a stock price perspective, but Im sure theyll be a lot higher in 5 years than now, if they can continue to execute and use their operational leverage.
Availability of compounded GLP-1 is relatively new, and it's popularity is new. But it's been around long enough that I think the market is starting to saturated and I think the growth of the revenue is not going to keep going. Also competitors are starting to eat away at they growth too. Home and hers has other profitable parts of their business, but I think the glp-1s put a ton of fuel in their fire and it's going to burn it in the next couple years. Kinda like zoom in the pandemic. Explosive growth, but temporary.
The GLP space is massively crowded and the first mover advantage of LLY and NOVO is a big thing. For NASH, there is madrigal pharma - industry leading drug with blockbuster potential. Personally, don’t like Vikings.
At some point wouldn't GLP-1 be commodotized enough that it's basically the same as investing in aspirin? The profits are when it's taking off, I feel like it's probably too late now.
America's going to be taking GLP-1 drugs like candy and you're cooked.
it was compounded GLP, FDA banned it
**You're right, the $299 is only for the first month, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.** **What** ***is*** **impressive is that LifeMD is offering FDA-approved, brand-name GLP-1 meds like Wegovy $599/month price without needing insurance. Compare that to Hims, where the brand-name version (Ozempic/Wegovy) costs \~$1,799/month out-of-pocket, and suddenly LifeMD looks like a legit disruptor.** **While $599 isn't cheap, it's:** * **\~65% cheaper than what Hims charges for the same branded medication (no insurance)** * **Inclusive of concierge-level care, virtual visits, med management, and doorstep delivery** * **Aimed at premium consumers who want one monthly payment and real GLP-1 access not compounded alternatives or separate billing** **So yeah, the $299 hook is just the intro, but the $599 all-in bundle is actually one of the best deals in the market right now for those who don’t want to deal with insurance headaches or inflated pharma pricing.** **Plus, from an investor standpoint that price point means stronger margins and higher LTV per customer. If they scale it right, that’s bullish AF**
Feel that, I’m going to sell Jan 16ths 26’s tomorrow on 2300 shares and see what we bottom at then buy calls with the premium. I think the news is a huge overreaction since HIMS does use insurance anyway. Their business model acquiring GLP-1 only helps it but it wasn’t why their recent earnings did so well
> they made a “deal” with that drug company Like every GLP-1 is made by Eli Lilly or Novo Nordisk lol. I feel like this ‘deal’ is entirely on CVS’s end and meant to ensure they profit the most cause I’m sure the drug company would prefer to use their newer drug that the patients want and they make more money selling.
CVS/Caremark doing the same thing right now with weight loss meds. They are constantly and conveniently “out of stock”, needs reapproval, you have to sign up for a nutrition program, now they are only approving 1 older GLP1 brand for coverage because they made a “deal” with that drug company. Etc etc etc.
I assume you're what 5'3? 5'4? That's pretty hefty. Just calls HIMS and get yourself a GLP-1 inhibitor that way you can stay lazy and lose weight.
I dunno fat,bald men are gonna keep buying GLP-1s, finasteride, and boner pills forever. What does HERS sell?
"GLP-1 drugs will hurt McDonald's and Walmart": clown emoji
HIMS is set to peak relatively soon, then take elevator down. Their name brand GLP-1 is offered at no real discount. Their far better selling 'generic' is a glorified placebo. Demand, and market, is far too big for price fixing to occur. First true GLP-1 producer, and allowed generic, to bow in price, will win. Sorry, but HIMS is one of the bot darlings here, and it's for a reason. Wonder if they have a product for karma. But, what do I know 🐸🍵
Watching a GLP-1 ad on TV made me realize. ‘Murica is the greatest nation when it comes to short cuts and processing. People would rather take GLP-1 than eat healthy or workout. No way these people suffer through tariffs. 🥭 gonna find out the hard way
Why isn't this sustainable? People buy a super expensive phone and pay monthly subscription fees? People pay monthly subscription fees to gym and GLP drugs. I'm not really following.
Lilly is also trading at >3x PE compared to NVO which is just 18 P/E (TTM) and even lower forward. I think the notion that Lilly's drugs completely outcompete NVOs is overblown. Price erosion is already happening, and right now Wegovy is the only one being prescribed for various reimbursements due to its approval for heart disorders. The biggest mistake was during the short supply where GPs started to prescribe Lilly drugs since Wegovy was clogged up. I think they lost a lot of momentum then. NVO is not just a obesity company, they have best-in-class bleeding disorder drugs, moving into gene therapies, and various late stage programs in other areas. Their GLP1s are already showing good data in CNS disorders (Alzheimer’s, Parkinson's), and they could be first-in-class with Phase 3 in oral GLP1 for AD. Personally, I would not bet against them, but at the same time, who knows where the bottom is. But it will increase upon new CEO being named. Lilly on the other hand, I would not touch at the multiple they are carrying. They are not a high growth company, it is big pharma, a heavily regulated industry, highly sensitive to pipeline developments (clinical trial risks), buyout opportunities (in competition with other companies fo rtheir pipeline), and the reimbursement scene which already have seen pressure for the last 10 years. The P/E they are carrying makes it hard to make them a good buy, when you have GOOGL at 18 P/E, and other companies growing vastly more.
This is my own D.D. deduction. $LEXX do MTA with an unknown Pharma Co. Results from GLP-1 studies are successful so far. A $2,000,000 worth of shares buyout at $1 each has been made by a single individual. Novo Nordisk as just fired their CEO after 8 years of service even after he led the company to the top of their sector. All this because rival company Eli Lilly took 1st place in the segment with their obesity pill success. Now, the creators of Ozempic need a new CEO and, a new technology or something revolutionary in order to get back at the top of their game. This is where Lexaria comes in play. DehydraTECH has already proven better than Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide (or Semaglutide.. I don't know) pill. Is Novo Nordisk the secret Pharma Co. in the MTA negotiations? I have no clue. But Lexaria Bioscience have a secret ingredient who surpasses Eli Lilly's product who just surpassed Novo Nordisk. I did my D.D. and I may be completely offside.. then again, it's almost like some stars are aligning themselves imho. We will see. Holding 950 share and need more.
Still not admitting GLP-1’s are cutting into sales, lol.
He does. This is exactly what people do. They have no idea what the clinical success rate of dieting is for long-term weight loss. The reason diet is the option of first resort is because the side effects are the lowest. If it doesn't work, that is when other options with higher success rates and higher side effects should be weighed ...but the alternative of accepting a lack of success and the significant negative side effects of continued morbid obesity will in many cases be much worse than successfully treating it. Just because diet works for me doesn't mean I would shame others who cannot make it work. Not being alcoholic is easy for me, I don't drink at all, that doesn't make me assume that beating alcoholism is easy for everyone. I don't need gender reassignment surgery either, but I don't pretend other people can't suffer from challenges that I don't experience. Many people still just cling to the ability to look down on others to feel good about themselves, and that's their main problem with GLP-1s.
Any thoughts on BRBR? With all of the GLP-1 talk, their Premier Protein is literally overflowing all of the racks of Walmart, CVS, etc...
Every single thing they sell is a pointlessly compounded drug, soon to be banned GLP-1’s aside. They aren’t offering special sauce just charging 10x the price to put two dirt cheap generics in the same pill. 90% of what they offer is mundane medicine that any NP, MD or urgent care clinic write a script for if you just ask and insurance would cover that. The other 10% is weakly evidenced and more than likely a waste of money. It takes 10 minutes of looking at your insurance plan telehealth options to make Hims totally obsolete.
Which is extra weird because frankly IMHO what Lilly is doing is making a 15 year plan with all that they have in their pipeline for obesity/diabetes. Novo seemingly got high on their own supply about semaglutide, ignored/dismissed viable hormones for development (adding GIP and glucagon to GLP1 meds for dual and triple agonism) and now this is where we are. Richard DiMarchi who is basically the father of dual and triple agonists cautioned in 2012(!!) that development of a drug like CagriSema would be a folly because trying to balance the action of two molecules is more difficult than making a unimolecular dual agonist...and looks like he was right as well.
It's simple. Lilly has better products and will have more of them than Novo within the span of about 18 months. Right now Lilly has overtaken Novo with tirzepatide By fall of 2026 Lilly will have tirzepatide, orforglipron and retatrutide. All of them will be superior to what Novo has. Retatrutide especially looks to be revolutionary as a drug. Novo will have... semaglutide and CagriSema. And the problem for CagriSema is it's less weight loss than expected and seemingly doesn't have great tolerability. So yeah they're in trouble. And that's without even mentioning the other companies that are developing GLP1 drugs that will be coming out in 2026 and 2027
As someone who's deeply into the GLP1 space as a provider and also on one of these meds this is definitely surprising but also given that their current GLP-1/obesity pipeline(for the next 2ish years) is about to get absolutely spanked by Eli Lilly I sorta don't blame the guy for stepping down now. They need someone more like a Dave Ricks from Lilly who's willing to push the boundaries and pipeline. I realize they're a Danish company and naturally more conservative in their moves but their first mover advantage is essentially over with Ozempic/Wegovy and ironically they're about to be playing catch up.
If you’re going to pick five companies for the rest of your life, I don’t know why you wouldn’t just pick ETFs instead. If you want to stock pick, you need to do the homework (and quite frankly, most of us suck, which is why we underperform). That being said, if I had to pick five: - Google: mature company with safe valuation, clean balance sheet, high growth rates, and exciting innovations - Microsoft: same except valuations are a bit stretched now. But they’ve proven to be dispensable for decades while reinventing themselves with a growth story. - TSMC: I prefer Nvidia overall for the next few years while we’re in the early phases of the AI build out, but if we have arbitrary rules that we have to stay invested for the rest of our life, I’d rather go with the supplier that makes the shovels - BYD: the auto industry is in shambles, but BYD has grown rapidly despite tariffs in the US, Canada, and Europe. If Canada or Europe remove these tariffs, this will take off like a rocket ship - Novo Nordisk: Lilly’s GLP-1 but its valuation is more than three times higher, plus the US has clowns running the HHS right now which will cause extreme uncertainty both in terms of R&D and in revenue streams.
What little I could find about the executive order, the idea of putting "America first" seemed convincing even thought I don't like Trump. There is a real problem of Americans in the USA not getting access to health care. A cancer treatment phase may cost $2000 in Canada but the same treatment may cost $35,000 in the USA. A package of GLP-1 medicine may cost $150 in China, but a comparable GLP-1 may cost $1200 in the USA. Many American simply can't get access to life saving health care. This [chart](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy#/media/File:Life_expectancy_vs_healthcare_spending.jpg) shows the problem of run-away cost: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy#/media/File:Life_expectancy_vs_healthcare_spending.jpg