Reddit Posts
Lexaria Bioscience (NASDAQ:LEXX) Letter to Shareholders from 1/24/24
The hedgies who sniffed out Wirecard have a new target: the AI bubble
check out Hydreight, it is like Uber For Nurses, and it's parent company Victory Square Tech is Undervalued to its NAV by over 80%
Amphastar Pharmaceuticals: Abbreviated New Drug Application For A GLP-1 Agonist?
Upcoming ALT conference, Thoughts?
Upcoming ALT Conference? Thoughts or predictions?
Altimmune and Viking are the last two companies left for Pharma to FOMO into the Obesity market
Altimmune and Viking are the last two companies left for Pharma to FOMO into the Obesity market
Mounjaro is more effective than Ozempic for weight loss in overweight and obese adults, real-world study says
Eli Lilly $LLY weight loss drug still needs a green-signal
Eli Lilly's Zepbound got FDA approval and expected to outcompete Ozempic
Eli Lilly's Zepbound got FDA approval and expected to outcompete Ozempic
Eli Lilly's Zepbound got FDA approval and expected to outcompete Ozempic
FDA approves Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide for obesity, paving way for even wider use of blockbuster drug
Highly shorted biotech stocks like BEAM and DNA (Ginkgo Bioworks) getting squeezed right now
Wall Street hikes forecasts for anti-obesity drug sales to $100B and beyond.
Medical instruments, devices and facilities pummeled today from weight-loss drugs. Overreaction?
Eli Lilly stock hits new 52-week high amid Ozempic study news
NVO YOLO update - 21k to 70k. I sold some NVO and bought some LLY, details inside
Forbes - Walmart Says Ozempic Could Be Impacting Food Sales: ‘Slight Pullback In Overall Basket’
Looking for advice for ETFs around Health, esp GLP-1 Agonistics etc
What are your thoughts about Weight Watchers (WW)? I prescribe weight loss medications, and they are very good. WW could be primed.
NVO has majority market share for obesity care which has TAM 50x from current market. Why are calls so cheap ? 20k YOLO inside
WeightWatchers International: Meme Stock Potential
ORMP - Opinions about Oramed's upcoming phase 3 results that are expected in January.
FDA has approved tirzepatide for treating Type 2 Diabetes: Eli Lilly is about to moon
Curative Biotech Announces Toxicology Studies Under Good Laboratory Practices (GLP) for Metformin Eye Drop Formulations for Treatment of Macular Degeneration
IPA Updates on Investigational New Drug (IND) Enabling Program for PolyTope® TATX-03
Skye Bioscience reports positive results for SB-100 in GLP toxicology study; Phase I clinical trial expected in 2Q 2022
POAI Drops PIONEER Initiative Preliminary Results: Let's Get Parabolic
$RDGL Vivos Inc A Human and Animal Cancer Treatment
Vivos Inc A Human and Animal Cancer Treatment
$RDGL Vivos Inc A Human and Animal Cancer Treatment
$PROG: PGN-OB2, not sure why no one is talking about this, it's a GLP-1 agonist, or a potential oral anti-diabetic medication.
GLP oversold on multiple timeframes, shorted and thinly traded
GLP oversold on multiple timeframes, shorted and thinly traded
$VTVT, severely undervalued biopharmaceutical company (diabetes) for the long term, with short-term catalyst this week DD
$VTVT, severely undervalued biopharmaceutical company (diabetes) for the long term, with short-term catalyst
Mentions
Excellent new data Fractyl Health Reports Positive 6-Month REVEAL-1 Open-Label Results Showing Sustained Post-GLP-1 Weight Maintenance After a Single Revita® Procedure
All mutual funds should be replaced by ETFs with the same investing philosophy. Of course, ETFs can suffer the same problem as mutual funds in that because the financial institution sponsoring them need their vig, there will be the fees that eat at the return. I used to hold some non-index ETFs (I repositioned into some beaten down stocks that were more attractive to me), and I think there is still some value - but there are some ETFs that claim to have some flavor but they really don't. One in particular was focused on GLP-1 drugs; I had figured that with American obesity being off the scale (pun intended), this would be great - but most of it was big pharma names, so I really was simply investing in pharma. I am the type of investor whose 2nd activity when I wake up in the late morning (after looking at my current position's zoo of stocks) is to look at Yahoo Finance's biggest losers to see what's on sale. These specialized ETFs aren't as good as Yours Truly looking at every stock individually. I put any extra cash that I get from ringing the register into something like IWM or BRK.B until I see something I want to invest in.
Calling GLP1 a saturated market? While people do pay 1.000,00 usd for one month in usa and +-200 usd in the rest of the world, for a pen with 5 dollar of product. While most pens are constantstly sold out trought the world. While there is still no pill out yet, maybe novo in 6 months. While Phizer? payd 6 miljard for a oral GLP1 patent. While people dont even know what GLP2 is. While Novo is building factories, with the speed usa builds data centers.
My best plays this year were APP MDGL and TER, not AI or GLP
Not at all. There’s a lot more to both industries other than AI and GLP-1s.
Your first part is dead wrong. Prices are going up for all plans, in the ACA and employer plans. Several reasons, but GLP-1s are playing an increasing role. Also, subsidies aren’t going away, extra pandemic era subsidies will go away at the end of the year, and probably temporarily. The people who go without health insurance will be relatively small.
I'm curious what this thread's thoughts are on LLY and its Retatrutide will have on other GLPs and GLP-1s. I'm long VKTX and wondering if I should feel worried about Retatrutide or will there be room for everyone to play in the obesity space?
Healthcare sector. Lots of solid companies that make money. Hasn’t done much last 10 years while rest of market went nuts. Aging population in US and GLP-1s are only going to get better and more popular. Can capture the upside of AI without the capital expenditures.
GLP-1 stops the food noise and destroys their business model.
I think it’s 12-14% of the US population has admitted to using GLP-1 at least once. Read it in an article.
There are studies going on for both retatrutide and VK2735. I definitely like the weight loss industry and think it will grow massively in the coming years so I do own positions in a few companies in there. GLP-GIP are truly incredible medications in my opinion.
World health organization recommending GLP-1s for adults with obesity. https://youtube.com/shorts/pELZ-f-nNp4?si=2Giu7D8QgkOc5D13 This has me even more bullish for the potential future of Fractyl Health.
What’s the cheapest and fastest way to get GLP1s?
Things are messy in biotech and I think macro tech growth causes investment to move away from biotech ex: ELDN makes an immunesupression medication tegoprubart that may eventually replace tacrolimus, the drug appears to work in kidney liver transplant patients as well as in islet cell transplants. this should be a huge market op. BUT with GLP-1 agonists reducing rates of diabetes and kidney failure, plus better treatments targetting transplants arriving much faster (ex https://www.jci.org/articles/view/190034) than the rate at which drug discovery occured in the 80s when tacrolimus was discovered, the forward revenue calculations are quite hard to do I suppose. Just an example, I don't currently hold eldn but I keep an eye on the transplant sector and am often confused about the low forward multiples on some of these large tam companies.
I get the concern, but I think the competitive picture is more nuanced. Lilly’s drugs may show stronger efficacy on some metrics, but the GLP-1 market isn’t winner-take-all — it’s supply-constrained, demand is global, and switching costs for patients are extremely sticky. Novo doesn’t need to be the best drug to compound; it just needs to continue being one of the two dominant suppliers in a market where demand massively exceeds capacity. As for pricing power and margins, those are determined by payers and regulators, not consumer choice, and both companies are still negotiating from a position of strength. Growth is slowing from extraordinary to normal, but FCF, margins, and global penetration still support long-term compounding. Being first to scale — not just first to market — is a moat that doesn’t decay nearly as fast as people assume. Either way you don’t “print cash” on stock price — stock is associated with sentiment and hype. The core finances prove that novo is a financial stalwart even if you personally like their competition better.
That's because markets are future looking and it's looking more and more like novo isn't going to win the GLP race. Their growth rate is slowing and competitors are coming up with better products. Also new competitors are entering the race. I'm interested in the investment returns - which novo has not been delivering (and is very likely to - given the future outlook). Revenue now != revenue in 5 years. Markets are pricing that.
With the way inflation is trending, it will actually be cheaper to consume GLP-1 drugs to suppress your appetite instead of buying groceries to eat real food
$ALT indiscriminately shorted (23.2M shares) promising biotech is a 2nd gen GLP 1 with improved tolerability, muscle retention and a 2nd mechanism that repairs scarred liver. Huge market and phase 3 coming in '26. 48 wk data any day now. A huge couple weeks here. Green 11 of last 13 days.
I think LLY and NVO (a better value play at the moment) could both 10x in 10 years. There’s a future where 1/3 of the world is on GLP-1’s. These things are the wonder drug people have been hoping for and are just getting started.
GLP-1s are dropping, and test, so that's good. Otherwise, I ain't seen any movement down...
NVO. Pill GLP1, new more effective 2nd gen, Medicare coverage are all tailwinds. And it's dirt cheap compared to LLY
God bless the fatties who need their GLP1s . NVO!
What stock / ETF do I buy to get GLP exposure
Not stop, just eat less. That's the whole point of GLP GIP drugs. So like instead of eating 4 BigMacs you'd eat one and feel full.
NVO is old news. The new thing is dual agent GLP GIP (NVO is single GLP) such as tirzepatide from LLY. Better efficacy, better tolerability, a lot less side effects like nausea/vomiting. LLY is actually not up that much. They have crazy growth with tirzepatide (especially if you compare it to NVO's semaglutide, which is in the low single digits) and are price very, very, very conservatively. Lots of room to grow. NVO is riskier because as I said they don't have a dual GLP GIP and their internal pipeline is not great. Which is why they tried (and failed) to acquire MTSR recently. They will try again with VKTX imo, if they do get it, they may be able to compete with LLY => NVO may grow 500%+ in the next 5 years, easily.
Honestly I believe if the use of GLP GIP expands as I am predicting, consumption of food as a whole (not only junk food) may go down significantly, which would be bearish for PepsiCo yes but also MCD and similar stocks.
Guggenheim raised the firm’s target on Pfizer ([PFE](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pfe)) to $35 from $33 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Pfizer’s acquisition of Metsera (MTSR) is “a wise strategic move” to gain traction in the rapidly growing obesity market following recent setbacks with the company’s internal oral GLP-1 programs, the analyst tells investors. Based on 15 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Pfizer in the last 3 months - the average price target is $29.23 with a high forecast of $35.00 and a low forecast of $24.00. The average price target represents a 13.65% change from the last price of $25.72. Just my take, but I would hang in there for a bit longer (although I understand why you want to sell it). Right now, most of the health care sector is out of favor. I recently bought CI, which had an outstanding quarter the end of last month, but dropped over $60 a share from around the $310 level . . . I immediately bought a 1000 shares at a $250 cost basis. Fast forward today, it is up to $278. A bargain in my mind. Similarly, the same thing has happened to 2 other health stocks Elevance and Humana. My point is that the sector was severely effected by the Administration's attitude toward health care in general, and "Obamacare" specifically. I think things are looking better for this sector. I am curious, what attracted you to Pfizer it in the first place? Regardless, good luck on whatever you decide.
>They want to still be able to go out to eat with friends and family and not feel sick after their first bite. How do you think weight loss actually works, if you think you can eat the same and still see visible results quickly? >as a GLP1 user Oh right you're obese, that would explain the knowledge gap
Stupid analogy. The hormones involved in diabetes are the same exact hormones that control hunger. We've LONG known that glucagon causes people to feel full and therefore not feel hungry, but we didn't know how to trigger that response with a drug until GLP-1s were developed.
Yeah it's a possibility. Doesn't change the fact that Lilly is still going full steam ahead with Alzheimer's drug development & they have nearly 10x the market cap of of Novo. Lilly is winning the GLP-1 race, which is giving them the capital to dump resources into other avenues of research. They literally just became the first pharma company to reach a market cap of $1T.
GLP1 started it all with Sema by being the breakthrough receptor that Sema was coded to affect (this is known as an amino acid sequence). But then Tirzepatide came out and became a “dual agonist” which touches on the GLP1 receptors in addition to GIP receptors. Then there’s Retatrutide which is a novel tri agonist which has those first 2 and then a new receptor which name is escaping me now. Each one better than the last with its own special recipe building upon previous innovations.
Wow TIL. I thought all the GLP1 drugs were semaglutide. I never invest in biotech or pharma because I just don’t understand any of it well enough.
GLP-1 agonists can still be clinically useful for the prevention of Alzheimer's. This trial just means that you can't put someone who already has it on them and slow disease progression.
I'm with you here. But what really killed it for me was when mango lowered the price on GLP1 drugs by 80%. Impossible to turn the shit train around when margins getting absolutely destroyed. Lily is up in a pink cloud. They will also get absolutely wrecked by this. Q1/Q2 next year will be absolute shit for both of these companies.
it's been hilarious as a GLP1 user (i've tried Sema/Tirz and now Reta) watching these dummies sort by "P/E" and think Novo is some misunderstood deepfuckingvalue bet. Sema fucking blows. It's the worst of the GLP1's and they don't have anything good in the pipeline (CagriSema? LMAO good luck). People want to lose weight AND not feel like shit while doing it. They want to still be able to go out to eat with friends and family and not feel sick after their first bite. Sema is the thing that started it all so they get credit for that but technology and innovation have passed them by significantly. The only thing that can save them at this point is winning the race to the bottom in terms of price... Which I guess, great?
100% Puts on McDonalds. Ain’t nobody gonna be eating that shit when their body is pulsing GLP-1 agonists into their brain.
They already losing GLP-1 race, they were being priced as winning other ones. They're now losing other races too, that's not good
So pick up DNUT and ALT - either GLP-1 or diabetes will take off - either way your betting on Americans being unhealthy, pretty safe play! Plus Krispy just announced a line of Peanuts (picture Snoopy) products, who doesn’t love Snoopy!
Who knew GLP-1s wouldn’t impact Alzheimer’s (me that was a stupid trial)
I am buying more as this has no impact on my basic thesis that the company will continue to deliver strong growth in revenue and EPS over the next five to ten years, primarily driven by the sustained expansion and success of their GLP-1 medications. While waiting for the share price to rebound, I am enjoying the current 3-4% dividend yield.
Yep. Lilly's truly profound success with GLP-1s/weight loss meds + relatively decent success with Alzheimer's treatments = first pharma company to be worth a trillion dollars.
No because it means GLP1’s might not be viable for Alzheimer's.
Doesn't the GLP-1 2 3 and the upcoming pill form destroy this company. People are losing 20% fat on Retratrutide puts pressure on sales.
The GLP1 is obviously a huge driver here but LLY also has some awesome stuff in the pipeline like their breast cancer and Alzheimer’s drugs. When it tanked after the $150 statement from the White House it was an absolute bargain going into earnings.
Yeah there’s a reason pharmacists don’t develop drugs, they just dole them out. There’s nothing about the stomach that makes oral drugs ineffective if they’re correctly designed. An oral GLP-1 doesn’t have to be a peptide like the injectable. Small molecules are plenty bioavailable when taken orally. Get back to filling scripts, goofus.
Pharmacist here: very dubious that an oral GLP-1 will be as anywhere near as effective as injectable. There's a reason we don't do oral insulin -- the stomach fucks it up (even if technically we could engineer the molecule to be resistant, it's more variable and fundamentally less effective) Rybelsus already exists and it's dogshit
google says : Reports of an 80% price cut on GLP-1 drugs for obesity by a company named Mango appear to be part of a misleading marketing campaign by the online healthcare company Mangoceuticals
Honestly, Eli Lilly hitting $1 trillion just on a couple of GLP-1 drugs is wild. Mounjaro and Zepbound are obviously selling like crazy for diabetes and weight loss… but come on, let’s not forget the **real game-changers** in pharma: **=> Roche**: *Ocrevus* has slowed MS progression for thousands of people; *Tecentriq* has actually extended lives in advanced lung and bladder cancer; *Hemlibra* turned hemophilia from a life-threatening disease into something people can manage. => **Novartis**: *Kymriah* CAR-T therapy can literally cure certain leukemias in one shot; *Entresto* helps heart failure patients live longer; *Cosentyx* completely changed life for people with severe psoriasis. These are **life-saving, life-changing drugs**, backed by decades of R&D and billions of dollars in investment. And yet, Roche and Novartis aren’t even close to a trillion-dollar market cap… while Lilly, riding the hype of a couple of trendy weight-loss drugs, suddenly hits the club. It just shows how the market today rewards **short-term hype and huge sales potential**, not the drugs that actually make a lasting impact on people’s lives. **The algos are buying US stocks in bulk because the money comes from the US. That’s it.**
Mango lowered the price on GLP1 drugs for obesity by 80% (from just six months ago). LLY Is extremely over valued at PE of 52. Their earnings and margins will take a massive hit and it will show in Q1 or Q2. They will need to 4-5x their sales, in volume, just to cover this gap.
Lilly is blowing past Novo Nordisk in terms of quality though, their GLP is simply better results with less side effects. And that's before the new, even more promising drug that should be available early 2026
The GLP-1 injection is great, it wasn’t the reason why I invested though. Orforglipron is amazing, and will truly be a world changer with how cheap and effective the pills are!
It’s becoming increasingly clear that Novo Nordisk ($NVO) is losing the GLP-1 race. Eli Lilly’s drug is simply ahead - both in efficacy and tolerability. Zepbound (tirzepatide) delivered **47% greater weight loss** compared to Wegovy (semaglutide), while also showing fewer side effects. Novo will need to play catch-up - fast.
Mango killed the GLP1 market. Lowered the price over 80% from just 6 months ago. Novo is fairly priced right now while Lily is extremely over-valued. Puts on lily before next earnings report. Regarding novo, the pill will sell for 149 dollars per package (1 month supply). Each tablet contains 25 mg semaglutid. That's 10x the highest sc dose. Producing peptides at this scale is expensive. So their margins will be very low. Hence, why I believe their earnings will take a serious hit going forward. The alzheimers study concluded in September I believe. If the results where over-whelming they would have released the results already. It will likely show some significant benefit, but not enough to through people off their chairs. Semaglutide has very little transport over to the brain from the bloodstream. Short summary: novo is fairly priced right now, lily is over-valued like crazy.
On December 3rd Novo Nordisk will release drug trial results on whether their GLP-1 drug can slow Alzheimer’s progression. If there’s anything that could make a stock this depressed shoot up 8-10% in a day it would be this.
[Research from reinsurance group of America projects GLP-1’s will reduce US mortality by 3.5% over the next 20 years](https://stocks.apple.com/AyzdhSZkDS-KeHlIhieDoaQ) Thought this was interesting to read from an insurance company.
obesity was repulsive enough before GLP-1s. the fact that there are still people right now choosing to be fat is a slap in the face of god.
Calls on $LLY and whoever else makes GLP1 drugs
for medicare patients, both Wegovy and Zepbound will be $50 copay... i don't think it's going to go the way you think it will lol... Medicare patients will be yet another battleground that LLY is going to slaughter NVO... For the oral, even if we accept that NVO's pill is more efficacious which may not be the case in reality, LLY 's pill is small molecule with small molecule margins and scale. If the real world data is that orfo can match sema, then its completely game over... the 16% weight loss in Wegovy pill is based on the OASIS-4 trial that only had 307 patients, 79% were women, 92% white... not very diverse for the real world... as for P/E, sometimes the market is smarter than you think... the market is forward looking and they see NVO only has CagriSema and amycretin near term... both are GLP/Amylin the absolute epitome of cannibalizing your own product... long term they have a GGG triple agonist and a new GGA triple agonist... LLY has their own amylin in eloralintide that finished phase 2 going into phase 3, they have retatrutide in phase 3 with results soon, and the big one bimagrumab in phase 2 with results maybe next year... NVO has nothing, i repeat NOTHING, in the next few years that can compete with this pipeline. LLY has moved on to fat loss and not weight loss. reta and bimagrumab if there are no crazy side effects, will be REVOLUTIONARY for fat loss and lean muscle mass preservation. the reality of the situation is that NVO under-invested in their pipeline for years and they can't buy that time back.... LLY invests a quarter of their revenue in R&D.... the more they make, the more they spend to stay on top... have you seen the moves they've been making in the biotech & genomics space?
The future is bright for both NVO and LLY imho. Patients may want one drug or the other depending on price, availability, insurance coverage, etc. It won’t all boil down to efficacy, although that is definitely an important consideration. We have seen the data, and there is a huge amount of people that would like to take GLP-1 drugs but simply cannot afford the price tag. So having more options with different prices (cheaper would be low dose and lower efficacy ranges) is a good thing, and certainly both pills by these companies will make a huge difference, as I think most patients would prefer a pill over a shot. It looks like NVO’s Wegovy in a pill should be first to market, but LLY is also right behind them with priority review. I really think the future is bright, but if I had to bet on one company, it would be the one that isn’t at a P/E of 50, but rather a P/E of 12.
I try not to use to much logic when it comes to the market but I can’t help assume that eventually governments will figure out covering GLP-1’s for wide use throughout healthcare systems dramatically decreases long term utilization and total spending.
All diet programs are doomed. Not because they are too expensive but because GLP-1.
Which active funds? I find mine are Tech exposed, with an overweight on GLP-1 companies, but their weighting is more quant driven than market cap.
Biotech and pharmaceuticals. GLP1 is that dude right now and there’s tons of diseases still out there that have yet to be solved.
Purely based on “vibes”, it feels like we’re on the cusp (next decade or so) of some pretty major break medical break throughs. GLP-1s are not without their drawbacks but can effectively “cure” obesity which would have been unthinkable a decade or so ago. Similarly I think we could see some novel breakthroughs in Alzheimer’s, cancers, and general life extension. This might sound nutty but I can even see a market for life extension applications (like what Bryan Johnson is doing). In fact I’m somewhat surprised that it hasn’t become more mainstream, I could totally see someone like Musk or Bezos pouring tens of billions into that à la Blue Origin or SpaceX.
Wow, this is the first time I've seen US TV commercials because I'm watching the NFL game that's being played here in Spain, and I just saw Serena Williams injecting GLP-1 in a fucking commercial! That's insane!
That's what I've heard. I was chatting high level with a few investors who had high conviction for it here. I don't know why (haven't figured it out yet) - but that means vibes were alright. With super low IV the risk vs reward matrix made sense. A 10% movement literally doubles my investment. The payoff matrix is very similar to GAP - I don't have a thesis yet tho. Just vibes. GLP-1 market is growing rapidly, it's good they have a stake.
Their recent acquisition, beating out novo, will help their GLP-1 pipeline which has been an issue the last year.
You are probably not wrong. Just not right enough. If we're talking pure alpha in the metabolic disease game, let's zoom east to Hong Kong where the real fireworks are popping off. I'm eyeing Innogen-B (02591.HK) and PegBio (02565.HK) as straight-up superior moonshots right now, all laser-focused on the GLP-1 revolution that's exploding in Asia's massive diabetes and obesity market. These aren't diluted plays like UNH's insurance sprawl or HOOD's trading volatility; they're razor-sharp biotechs riding China's 1.4 billion-person wave, with approvals incoming and valuations that make US counterparts look like overpriced lattes. Let me break down why swapping some of that bag for these HK gems could 5x your portfolio by 2028—pure fire, no fluff. First off, the macro setup in Hong Kong biotech is straight dominance mode. While the US Nasdaq biotech index is grinding up a measly 20% this year, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Biotech Index has ripped 80%+, outrunning even AI hype. Why? Beijing's pumping state cash into "Made in China 2025" for pharma independence, with 14 fresh listings already raising over HK$18 billion in 2025—quadrupling last year's haul—and 36 more queued up. Valuations? HK biotechs trade at 8-10x forward sales on average, versus 18x+ for US peers, giving you dirt-cheap entry into 30%+ CAGR growth as Asia's diabetes epidemic (hello, 140 million cases and counting) meets ultra-long-acting GLP-1s that crush Ozempic's dosing hassle. No DOJ probes or Medicare cuts here—just streamlined NMPA nods and export pipelines to Southeast Asia. HIMS is cute with its telehealth subs, but it's a US middleman facing Amazon's boot; these HK plays own the IP and manufacturing in the world's fastest-scaling market. Take Innogen-B: This beast just exploded 296% on debut in August, opening at HK$72 after pricing at HK$18.68, and it's still humming around HK$50-60 with HK$683 million fresh in the tank from an IPO oversubscribed 5,365 times—HK$370 billion in bids from 260k investors, second-hottest in Hong Kong this year. Their crown jewel, Efsubaglutide Alfa (branded Diabegone), is Asia's first homegrown humanized long-acting GLP-1 agonist, already greenlit for type 2 diabetes in China and barreling through late-stage trials for obesity and MASH (that fatty liver goldmine worth $30 billion globally). Early data? 7% weight drop in four weeks, with monthly dosing that laps weekly shots—perfect for compliance in a market where 80% of patients ghost treatments. They're deploying IPO cash for Phase III global pushes, commercial ramps, and CNS add-ons, turning red ink (losses narrowed to HK$175 million last year) into black by mid-2026. Compared to HIMS' 50x P/E bloat and GLP-1 supply glut risks, Innogen's at <5x sales with zero revenue yet—pure asymmetry. Bears whine about Eli Lilly/Novo competition, but Innogen's local pricing edge (half the cost) and China-first moat mean they snag 10-15% market share easy, printing HK$10 billion revenue by 2030. UNH? It's a sleepy dividend cow at 13x earnings, dodging cyber headaches but capped at 8-10% growth; Innogen's your uncapped rocket to HK$300/share. Then PegBio seals the deal as the stealth assassin. Listed earlier this year at HK$15.60, raising HK$301 million for a HK$6 billion val, it dipped to HK$10 on open but clawed back to HK$15+ on pipeline heat—up 7% monthly despite broader volatility. Their lead, PB-119, is another long-acting GLP-1 banger for diabetes and obesity, with NMPA acceptance last year and marketing greenlight eyed for Q1 2026. Preclinicals on PB-2301 (GLP-1/GIP dual) and PB-2309 (triple agonist) target NASH and rare endocrines, diversifying beyond HIMS' one-trick pony. R&D burn was HK$280 million in 2022, tapering to HK$76 million YTD as trials wrap, with cash at HK$27 million pre-IPO now beefed for launch and expansions. Losses ticked up slightly to HK$283 million last year on zero revenue, but that's biotech math—post-approval, ARPU from chronic scripts hits HK$500/year per patient in a 500 million obese Asian pool. Versus HOOD's cyclical 70% transaction reliance (hello, 35% revenue crater in '22), PegBio's recurring revenue moat is ironclad, with PEGylation tech for custom peptides adding service upside. Analysts are mum on ratings yet, but the sector tailwind screams Buy; at 4x projected sales, it's a steal next to UNH's regulatory quicksand (DOJ antitrust, 85% loss ratios). PegBio could 4x to HK$60 by 2027 if PB-119 captures 5% China share, while HOOD prays for bull markets. Bottom line, apes: HIMS/HOOD/UNH are fine for balanced bags, but Innogen and PegBio are the asymmetric edges—cheaper entries, explosive China growth (20% GDP healthcare slice by 2030), and GLP-1 purity without US baggage. HK's policy rocket fuel means 50-100% pops on approvals alone, while US names grind through comps and comps. I'm allocating 20% here; dips under HK$45 for Innogen and HK$12 for PegBio are no-brainers. DYOR, markets flip fast, but this is where the smart money's flowing east. Who's jumping in? 🚀🇭🇰 #HKBiotech #GLP1Bets
Yo apes, dropping my two cents on the long-term bull/bear showdown for HIMS, HOOD, and UNH because someone asked for the real tea, not the CNBC fluff. This is 3-5 year horizon stuff, not day-trade noise, so buckle up. Everything here is fresh off Nov 2025 data—earnings, filings, analyst takes, short interest, the works. No copypasta, all reworded in my own voice. Let’s ride. Starting with HIMS, the telehealth rocket that’s up triple digits this year and chilling around forty-five bucks a share. Forward earnings multiple is chunky at 50x, but the growth is stupid: 80%+ revenue pops projected straight through 2027, mostly riding the GLP-1 weight-loss wave plus mental health and women’s health add-ons. They’ve got 1.5 million subscribers now, average revenue per user climbing 20% year-over-year, and EBITDA margins just cracked 15%. Cash flow per share could hit five bucks by 2028 if they keep compounding. Hedge funds are stacking in—38 big players now versus 31 last quarter. Zacks slapped a Strong Buy on it. Bull case says they grab 5% of a hundred-billion-dollar telehealth pie and the stock prints two hundred or higher by decade’s end. The Novo Nordisk breakup? Shorts calling it a disaster, but bulls say it’s a nothing-burger—HIMS just pivots to their own compounded versions and keeps the party going. Flip the script to the bear side and things get spicy. Short interest still north of 15%, gross margins are juicy at 80% but operating costs are ballooning. GLP-1 supply is gonna flood the market by 2027 and crush pricing power; right now 40% of revenue is one category. Amazon Pharmacy and Teladoc are lurking with deeper pockets and real infrastructure. DCF on the dark side spits out twenty bucks a share if growth throttles to 20%. One guy on here already dumped his entire bag calling the moat “non-existent.” DOJ is sniffing around compounding rules, and recessions make people skip the $99/month subscription real quick. Net-net, I’m tilting bullish if you buy dips under forty, but if the weight-loss hype dies, bears feast. Next up, HOOD—the meme broker that turned legit and sits at $130 after a 150% YTD rip. Funded accounts over 25 million and growing 30% year-over-year, average revenue per user north of $150 thanks to crypto trading (20% of revenue), margin loans, and Robinhood Gold subs hitting a million users. They’re sitting on six billion cash, zero debt, and just bought a crypto wallet to keep expanding. Crypto ETFs are soaking up fifty billion in inflows, retail is back in force, and 24/7 trading plus new ETF launches scream “everything app” for millennials and Gen Z. Technicals show a consolidation triangle ready to break; Mizuho’s old fourteen-dollar target got obliterated months ago. Bull case says three hundred to four hundred by 2030 if the risk-on party keeps rolling. Bears, though? Oof. Seventy percent of revenue is still transaction-based, so any bear market and volumes crater—remember 2022 when revenue dropped 35% overnight. RSI is 72, stock’s a hundred percent above its 200-day moving average, classic overbought territory. Schwab and Fidelity are eating lunch with better tools and no payment-for-order-flow drama. SEC fines and regulatory heat never fully go away. If interest rates tank and volatility dries up, monthly active users stall hard. Bear DCF lands around fifty bucks. I’m riding the bull wave in a bull market, but I’ll be adding on any 20% pullback to eighty. Recessions turn HOOD into a pumpkin. Last but not least, UNH—the healthcare behemoth that’s down 20% YTD to $310 after the cyberattack mess and Medicare headwinds. Still a dividend king with a 3% yield and four hundred billion in annual revenue. Optum is the growth engine—projected to two hundred billion by 2028 with AI squeezing costs and margins climbing past 8%. Medicare Advantage enrollment up double digits every year, EPS compounding 12% like clockwork. Post-dip, it’s trading 13x forward earnings versus an 18x historical average. Bull DCF says five hundred easy by 2028 as healthcare eats 20% of GDP. Ten billion annual buybacks and a track record of beating the S&P in ten of the last twelve bear markets. Management says full recovery in three to five years. Bear case is regulatory Armageddon. DOJ is probing Optum acquisitions, Medicare could slice premiums 5%, medical loss ratios are stuck above 85% after the Change Healthcare breach cost them two billion and counting. Claims inflation is real, pricing power is slipping. Bear DCF lands at two hundred flat—35% downside from here. Policy risk under any administration is the wildcard. Still, I’m calling this a screaming value play. Bulls win the long game unless the regulators go full scorched earth. Wrapping it: HIMS and HOOD are your growth moonshots—10%+ CAGR if stars align. UNH is the defensive cash cow that prints in any weather. Spread your bets, watch Q4 earnings for the next leg, and always do your own homework because Wall Street changes its mind faster than a diamond-hand paper-hands. What’s your play, degenerates? 🚀🩳
Doesnt LLY why a next gen GLP-1 in the pipeline?
Just wait till the GLP-1's become generics. the BMI standards will change and they will push everyone onto ozempic
They need to look into GLP1s
There are some rumblings that PFE tried for another GLP-1 company before Metsera but found the price to be too high (more mature product?). Novo potentially wanted Metsera's amylin product to shore up Cagri.
They are gonna have to find an additional layer of differentiation and moat pretty soon before the competition just replicates them. They got a big boost from GLP-1 but even Costco has that now.
Sorry I get my GLP-1 from Costco now. Same for stretchy exercise pants. No moat. No barriers to entry. No buy.
Literally no GLP-1 or any peptide has good oral bioavailability… LLY will have the same issues Source - I’m a pharmacist
Look, Pfe will climb to $50 as it hits on oncology and GLP. It has 108 late stage trials. I am about making millionaires.
support broken and still over-valued. Its hard to know if they are even necessary anymore. Cheap GLP-1s for the US pretty much ruined their business model
See my other response to you below, but this illustrates why dilution is zero concern for me. Pfizer just won a bidding war to acquire Metsera for $10 billion for their two GLP-1 (weight loss) drugs that may not get to market before Gain’s GT-02287. Those two drugs are estimated to have peak sales of $5 billion per year, whereas the first disease modifying drug for Parkinson’s would be somewhere in the $5 billion to $30 billion range. Due to the nature of Parkinson’s disease and they’re being no disease modifying treatment, GT-02287 could be expedited through the development process and available within 2 to 3 years, maybe less. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-sweetens-offer-metsera-bidding-war-against-novo-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-11-08/
It may come to life and be profitable when the patents on the current GLP-1's expire.
Dr. Oz claimed that Americans could collectively lose 135 billion pounds due to the administration's new deal on GLP-1. That’s 396lbs per American. You all better get out there and start working out.
I think you are misunderstanding. Off label use is not the concern. It literally would make zero sense for a practicing physician to not prescribe a DIABETIC patient Mounjaro or Ozempic. This simply puts all liability on the physician for no reason. The idea that subQ will die because patients will not take these drugs and instead will find someone instead to prescribe oral formulations for their diabetes is bananas. GLP-1 agonists are adjunct treatments. Nobody is upending their treatment plan and no doctor is going to risk their patient’s well being and legal ramifications.
"The global GLP-1 receptor agonist market was estimated at approximately USD 53.46 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 156.71 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.46% from 2025 to 2030." there is never a guarantee in m&a; but 10B is a small investment for a piece of the growing market.
URGENT: If Ozempic Hurt You or Your Child We Need to Hear From You My name is Penelope and I was 320lbs at the age of 15 I lost 160lbs naturally and now my mom and I help women lose weight naturally ONLY no injections no pills. Whole foods and exercise! Now we are standing up for families who trusted these injections and were harmed. We are currently filming a documentary documenting GLP 1 injured families stories. GLP1 drugs like Ozempic Wegovy and Mounjaro are now tied to severe injuries More than three thousand lawsuits in the United States for stomach paralysis organ damage and pancreatitis Over two hundred children are permanently blind Eighty two deaths reported in the United Kingdom in government safety data Children already being prescribed these drugs with no long term data known Real families are suffering Vision loss Digestive paralysis Organ removal Fatal complications If you or someone you know has been injured by a GLP1 injection please email us sstepitupss@gmail.com. Thank you for helping us protect our children and our community Helene and Penelope Popken
All amylins are similar, WL lower than dual GLP/GIP, higher AE rate, potential bradycardia issues. Lots of studies with amylins had higher DC rates too. Once monthly is a differentiation, yes, but I'd argue not as much as you think. My thesis is in this market the king differentiation will be an oral option such as oral VK2735 (same molecule oral + subq) that can be used alone but the most efficient way will be as a maintenance after initial WL with subq, see Viking's oral VK2735 maintenance study for more information.
Elaborate why you believe that the complement of amylin is not competitive. Amylin and GLP-1 both work on similar satiety pathways. Studies show alot of promise as of now. However, I think you missed the actual point of the Metsera shot being one time per month not once every week. That is a huge differentiator in this market. It improves patient adherence. Limits infection risk and is more convenient for the patient.
You mean the oxycontin written in to medical guidelines to be used for everyday pain based on fraudulent evidence provided by the Sacks family? You mean the countless physicians who have been sued for that type of practice and the harsh regulations that followed? There is no physician that is going to put their license and malpractice insurance on the line to prescribe off guideline oral GLP-1 only to have the lights sued out of them after a patient presents with Dka complicated by cerebral edema and is now functionally incompetent. Imagine how that conversation goes on the stand? You are living in a fantasy world my guy.
I am not sure you are aware of how malpractice works in the US but physicians adhere to strict guidelines when prescribing medications. Prescription GLP-1s already are cost effective for diabetic patients and liability to prescribe a patient a medication indicated for another usage to a disease that has the potential consequence of a litany of adverse events is not something to mess around with.
10 billions for a product in phase II that, once approved, will enter a highly competitive market that has turned generic (semaglutide and possibly tirzepatide will go off-patent when this hits the market). Not to mention the obesity GLP-1 space is already, practically, generic since mango just lowered the prices over 80% from half a year ago. 1 month injections is cool and all, but will it be able to compete against much cheaper pills? Metseras share holders made the deal of a century, Pfizer did not.
quad agonist GLP-1/GIP/Glucagon/Crack
Shorting GLP-1 companies while snap starvation kicks in. I’m a sick fuck
Was the guy who collapsed at the White House meeting yesterday really a patient taking GLP-1 drugs? And they were going to use him as a success story before he collapsed? Dear God, were they starving the guy to make him even thinner for the meeting? Why are they so obsessed with weight less all of a sudden?
>White House reporter with Washington Post says man who fainted at White House yesterday was not a pharma exec but rather "an Eli Lilly patient, who had been invited to the White House based on his experience taking a GLP-1 drug." Is it bad when your trial participants die on live tv?
I know, but still regarded that investment community thinks Thad people are going to spend money on GLP-1s when grocery stores are gouging consumers.
DIED after being inject with GLP1.
GLP meds are going to be so great they'll have to rename them to GOPs. You'll faint when you see the prices.