AMC Partner and Competitor IMAX CEO on Movie Theaters "Globally are back and breaking records" So many records being broke. The ultimate 1-2 punch with Avatar 2 around the corner. As an AMC Entertainment Stockholder, I am so proud of the investment I own.
AMC is primed for the #MOASS and when it inevitably squeezes, it will be a far more violent short squeeze than we've ever seen before. This will be the largest redistribution of wealth in our lifetimes. More than B.T.C. When it squeezes, don't blow your load early - HOLD!
The “Eras Tour” concert film will be showing in theaters across the U.S., including AMC, Cinemark, and Regal. While the ride with AMC was fun while it lasted, I'm not a fan of meme stocks anymore. I prefer pure-play cinema stocks like CNK and IMAX that still trade on fundamentals.
Correlation and coincidence doesn’t always flow together, so initially in my opinion based on some early article that the Hollywood writer’s strike may not effect theaters in the short term, however, a longer one would mean, perhaps summer end of 2024 and through holidays and 2025, won’t have the movies already written and filmed as in current. Since home theaters are becoming increasingly inexpensive with your own gourmet popcorn and snacks, I feel the theaters will be doomed. It would be like asking if buying a CD case printing company would be a good investment. And my wife and I managed theaters, nostalgia doesn’t payback those debts. Technology maybe surpassing what these theaters are capable of pumping upgrades and renovations to keep up. IMAX perhaps could be a savior, but prime locations with lots of traffic. I’d pass, but my opinion doesn’t come with experience in the stock, just the experience managing one 12 years ago and seeing the one my wife managed closed several years between.
This is very helpful, thank you. I know option pricing is extremely complicated. With that being said, is there any sort of rule of thumb to go by in terms of how much IV would affect the pricing? Like, the IMAX pricing obviously wasn’t AS affected by the IV crush because it went up so much. So my question would be how much does an underlying need to move for IV to not matter as much?
A couple of comments on this. 1. IV crush can certainly happen, but a big price movement can overcome it. IMAX is up 12% today which is usually a big move for most stocks. That tells me that for your option, delta overwhelmed Vega. 2. You are dealing with very low priced contracts. That tells me that there is only so much IV baked into them. You bought this contract at .17. Assuming it was OTM at the time that means that time value and IV together we’re valued at .17. Assuming you had any decent time left on the contract you didn’t have a ton of IV to start with. Yes, it likely did drop after earnings with as little as you had (even at a price of .30) a big price move would matter more. Has the price not really moved, you would likely have noticed. Had it dropped a lot, you could have done even worse. 3. You got about a 30% gain. That’s not bad. You have to evaluate if you want to hold through earnings by looking at the risk vs reward. If it’s a small trade maybe it’s worth sitting through and taking the risk. Or maybe it’s not. I can’t answer that entirely for you.
What happened to IV crush? So, I am pretty new to options and I’ve been messing around with cheaper options contracts because I obviously don’t want to risk too much. I bought 5 IMAX $19 8/18 calls at $.17 per contract last week. I had heard/read some good things regarding their earnings (reported yesterday after close). I also thought Oppenheimer was going to do numbers which should have an effect on their stock (which it did). I had read a lot of posts on this subreddit regarding IV crush and why you probably shouldn’t keep your contracts through earnings. So, that is what I did. I waited until Wednesday before close to sell my position at $.30 per contract, and I was pretty satisfied with that return. However, I just woke up to IMAX opening at well over $19 and reluctantly looked at the exact option I had and saw the price at $4.30 so I was pretty disappointed. Obviously, this is very inflated, and I wouldn’t actually be able to sell them at that mark, but I know I would’ve been able to sell for WELL over what I sold yesterday. So, my question is, what happened to the IV crush? It was still in the upper 40s/lower 50s this morning which is higher than what it’s been all week.
Wow, I haven’t seen that one yet! I’ll be sure to check it out. Is there still a way to see it in IMAX as Christopher Nolan intended? Even though I have a (forgive me for boasting) 65 inch flatscreen television, I wouldn’t want to disrespect his craft by watching it at home.
I appreciate this post. It's longer but not too long. And it has nice little graphics and decent explanations. Would love to see more of this on here. I would have appreciated hearing your thoughts on the short side even if you are biased long. As others have mentioned analyst price targets are largely irrelevant, especially in the short term. Doing detailed fundamental analysis yourself is a lot of work but you can look up some basics info to gauge if there's a margin of safety (meaning if $28 is an optimistic case price target, what's a pessimistic case price target? How do their revenue and debt numbers look?). How has IMAX stock done on past earnings reporting? Does the market react quickly or slowly? Stocks often don't react as expected after earnings. Stocks can fall on good earnings, or climb on bad earnings. So even perfect analysis can lose sometimes. It's complicated. As you can probably tell this trade is basically a coin toss. You could lose a dollar, you could make a dollar. How do the bid ask spreads look? are you stuck holding this trade thru expiration because of expensive bad ask spreads? What's market sentiment like? Barbie and Oppenheimer are no secret (fuck you can't avoid the marketing and movie talk if you tried). These events should in theory be partially priced in. but what does the market think about the stock right now? And is that sentiment reflected in recent price movements? what happened to earnings and the stock after Avengers and Spiderman? Obviously things have changed but an adjustment to historical trends can be made. Still good to know how the markt reacted in the past.
I suspect it will have a big drop off, as most women do not like watching/paying for a film more than once. Oppenheimer however, has repeat value, so, over a longer period (and with IMAX takings) it will make more money. I will say this: congrats to the producers of Barbie, just like the plastic toy has manipulated and exploited young girls for decades via Mattel, the movie is doing the same, just for older women in their 30's who are not married. Well done, you have succeeded in making tonnes of money by doing the very thing you are suggesting men have done. I hope women everywhere do not realise this, because then they will flay you, figuratively speaking ♥
I work overnights, so it's a little awkward going to the theater, but I want to see *Oppenheimer* in IMAX. For some reason though the theaters want to give *Barbie* like 3x the amount of slots lol. I understand *Oppenheimer* is an hour longer, but come on, there has to be some good demand for it, it's a Nolan movie.
Single projector 16k resolution on the IMAX 70mm film vs dual projector 4K on the digital IMAX presentation(resulting in actual resolution of 5-8k depending on projection conditions)... The advantage of the digital presentation is that it will be brighter and not have any film grain, but lower image clarity, sharpness and resolution so it won't be the "preferred version of the filmmaker" anyway. Normal 70mm film is higher 8k resolution but again with "classic film grain" vs slightly brighter 4K Digital with no film grain on your Dolby Atmos Superscreen. In the end, you're all watching the same fucking movie anyway.... Lol.
Im honestly thinking of watching Oppenheimer in 70mm IMAX... But the damn sessions all sold out... Fuk Nolan and his Airline-style approach to releasing movies..... Premium First Class - IMAX 70 mm with Dolby Atmos in select airplanes First Class - IMAX Digital with Atmos in select newer airplanes. Business Class - 70mm film (Dolby Digital, but the cinema will probably be a cool single sceen massive theatre cinema from the 30s, so you'll still get to act like a snob!) Premium Economy - 4K Digital Superscreen with Dolby Atmos included Economy - Digital for the Poor's with no trimmings at all. And maybe no aircon either....
Hi, as yall know, Oppeheiemer is being released and its drawing alot of attention towards 70mm IMAX as well as IMAX film vs IMAX digital. Especially given that there are only 30 such cinemas in the world(or so i think). My main question is, will this new interest cause the stock price of IMAX to rise and should I be buying the stock now? I'll break the question into 2 parts, will the stock price rise and should I buy the stock. I'm not sure if the stock price will rise as while the movie has definately hyped up IMAX 70mm film, it is definately not a cheap investment and digital will eventually replace film when it technology makes it good enough. So I doubt any cinema will seriously consider installing new IMAX screen especially since films specifically made for 70mm IMAX arent the norm(at least to my knowledge). Hence I dont think the revenue of IMAX will be affected neither will their future prospects, so no stock price change. But then again stock prices can be driven by just pure hype and no actual profits so im not sure. Maybe I can just ride the wave and cash out. The second part of my question is whether it is a good idea to buy the stock. The stock price for IMAX has been falling on average for past 5 years and I dont want to buy this stock and just have it fall. So I'm not sure if its even worth it to take the risk. Looking for your advice. Thanks
true but I think for certain movies it is correct. For example I saw Avatar 2 in IMAX 3d and it was the most fun I ever had watching a movie and it made me a superfan of the franchise and movie. If I watched it on my TV I do not think I would be gushing about to everyone like I did.
Having an IMAX screen in your house would be nice but shit is way too bulky and I already wear glasses all day and I don't want more shit over my face. Plus, it would fuck up my hair so the only time you can use one is in your house at night before you go to bed.
I’ve done very well with CNK this year. Call me nostalgic, but I’m still a big believer in movie theaters. All of them got crushed during Covid. AMC was the first to recover (thanks to WSB). IMAX was next. And now CNK has been making its move since January. I still believe it’s undervalued and ripe for a squeeze.
And why is it impossible for these advances to change habits? What if a VR headset is comfortable enough and small enough to produce any amount of virtual displays you want, such an IMAX theater for media viewing or a triple monitor setup for work - without taking up any physical space, and it enables better posture and utilizes faster input than a keyboard and mouse through a neural interface input like EMG? What if the more unique aspects of VR like social telepresence is realistic enough that people find the value over the unrealistic alternatives of a monitor? Have you thought about that?
I think that most VR attempts screwed up in trying to carve out a new niche in consumer electronics instead of trying to create an alternative to laptops and desktops. The portable headset is a bit bigger than a laptop but it has much greater visual capabilities. The device has a phone sized screen which is perceived as IMAX sized (disregarding resolution). I think Meta VR would be in a different situation right now if they focused on creating a computer replacement experience instead of a gaming / social platform. This is especially the case because VR 2D media can be a superior experience to browsing on the phone, just because you can lie down flat. But there were key decisions that were made and are still happening on the Quest which shows the key decision makers haven’t realized this - like forcing the avatar to be there, no Meta built gloves which will allow for better controller free / virtual keyboard, removal of the USB Ethernet driver, no terminal, browser doesn’t support things like PDF, browser won’t even support Gmail / no native email client, no group YouTube / TikTok / movie watching native solution that integrates well with the friends capability, no z-axis control option, hard to use file system abstraction, can’t record passthrough and share videos with friends… It’s clear that the people driving this thing are social media people trying to win a war by using the strategies that built their bones, and it’s not going well. It’s like they ran into the “build it and they will come” mistake with their platform and think the issue is hardware, when the reality is that Apple and Google had a solid products in the phone game even before the app stores became a thing - iOS and Android phones have and had great functionality even without third party apps. I suppose this makes sense though because social media content is way easier to make than good software, and so “build it and the platform will naturally grow” is viable in social media just because of the much higher user generated goods to user count ratio.
the AMC IMAX screen at the AMC Lincoln Center theater in NYC is the best screen in the country. I've been to another lesser screen and it was pretty good too. $26 a ticket was a good price for it too. ​ average ticket price in NYC is $15. there was a small theater by me that was $8 and I used to go there or to the IMAX. AMC should have upgraded more of their IMAX screens to make it a better value for people
>It's clear that IMAX is doing better than CNK, both in terms of earnings and revenue. This is likely due to their stronger slate of new releases coming up in 2023. However, even though Ant Man was not well-received by critics, its strong box office performance shows that there is still momentum behind the company. This makes me confident that CNK will have a strong Q4 earnings report and return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year.
Just came back from IMAX 3D avatar. Good fucking God did they dial up the quality from the first one. No more beating you over the head "man bad, nature good lol", much better story and plots, better hashed out characters with more than one dimension. Amazing visuals and good pacing. Oh and depression. I'm depressed as fuck again and all I wanna do is go back and escape to that world again. I wanna swim with whales. Fuck.
Why the fuck r u saying “well… duh..” First off don’t be a disrespectful condescending jackass, secondly if the dumbass statistic didn’t include high schoolers working at Chik Fil A and IMAX then there wouldn’t be this moment to begin with.
Yesss! 4 IMAX 3D dome tickets week of release for me, near 2nd/3rd row and slightly off center if it’s assigned seating. Beverage, popcorn with milk duds tossed in each viewing is a must of course. Maybe some sour patch kids. Unless it’s too convoluted I *think* I’ll get the gist of it after 4 viewings. I don’t want to be dumb money, hopefully the message sticks!
Everything there was clean. It was such a wonderful experience watching Avatar in this IMAX Theater (2nd largest screen in USA). The screen was huge and the seats were very comfortable. I am so envious of people living in San Francisco they have such a great cinema.
it really isn't great except the visuals I went 4 times to IMAX on Avatar 1, watched it many times at home and was very excited to see the new one. I've got tickets for IMAX premier and couple days after for 4DX It doesn't has any wow moments as the first one had. It's a movie for children, but surprisingly there weren't any at the cinema. The story is lame, not what you expect after 13 years and hundreds of million $$$
Sigourney Weaver is in fact the movie's real lead role..... Ironically as the movie's Newt character this time. Oh and fuck you, I love spoiling shit. Plot is indeed Waterworld meets Free Willy with a touch of Star Trek 4 thrown in and the human kid is obviously ripping off the feral kid from Mad Max 2.... But I loved it anyway. I'm gonna buy some IMAX stock just for fun.
I just bought a ticket to see Avatar 2 in the graveyard opening day session at IMAX.. Ends at 1-1:15 am. Now I have to worry how the fuck I'm gonna get home from the Central Business district after "everything's finished". Fuck it, I'll worry about it next week. I'll probably just pretend I caught the last bus and reactivate and get Uber all the way. Lol. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)