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Pumping Free Fuel Like the Rockefellers: Why Bill Gates and United Airlines Are Bypassing $7/kg Green Hydrogen Factories to Drill Subterranean Gas at $1/kg, and How Mantle8's Partnership Connected the $403M Land Grab to a Sub-$4M Explorer $EONE
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Fair, not literally everyone. But it's not just Reddit saying it. The Bank of England and the IMF both warned about AI valuations and the risk of a sharp correction last October. Sam Altman said investors are "overexcited", and Bezos called it an "industrial bubble". When the people *selling* AI say it, that's worth something. Doesn't mean it pops tomorrow. People called the dot-com bubble in 1996 and it ran until 2000. So I'm curious: what makes you sure it isn't one?
The IMF the Fed have all confirmed the main reason for housing and rental inflation post GFC has been immigration largely outpacing supply gains
Hehe I'm glad you guys are experiencing the taste of your own medicine This is what America and its corporations did to most of the world during the 80s, 90s, 00s. Not only buying when available, but actually forcing markets open through IMF and World Bank lobbying, making nations sell off their key industries, natural monopolies and national security related assets so they could get better loans IMF and World Bank handbook doing a boomerang 🪃
Citizens of Europe, I once again invite you to consider purchasing these fine American equities. For your consideration: If you want a luxury car, you buy German. If you want a precision timepiece that costs more than the GDP of a small African nation you go Swiss. If you want clothes that make you look simultaneously unemployed yet incredibly wealthy, you go Italian. If you want cheese, wine, or body odour, you go French. Every nation has its thing. America’s thing is "line go up". We took capitalism, sprinkled it with amphetamines and degeneracy, and turned it into a $50 trillion stock market. Perhaps you're happy with your socialized healthcare. Perhaps you're happy with your GDPR. Perhaps you're content with your nice, stable, bond backed pension fund, ticking up at 4-5% per year. But perhaps not. Perhaps you want more. Perhaps you yearn for freedom. Real freedom. American freedom. If so, this is your sign. It is time to rotate the capital. Sell your rental properties in Brussels. List your IKEA furniture on Facebook Marketplace or whatever the EU-compliant, privacy friendly equivalent you use is. Liquidate grandpa's collection of memorabilia collected over his time fighting for the guys that lost the war. Britain, buy the S&P. Germany, buy the Nasdaq. France, buy GOOG. Norway, sink that big, dirty, sovereign wealth fund into NVDA. Italy, idk buy TSLA or something. Portugal, Greece, go to the IMF and ask them for $3 trillion. When they ask what for, tell them you're buying American. They'll happily hand it over. They know it's a safe bet. I am not asking you to abandon European industry. In fact, I'm asking you to back it. The more the line goes up, the more Euroslop America can buy. And when the profits arrive? Recycle it back in. And America will buy more. And you'll get more profits. And you'll reinvest. And we'll all get richer and richer, and the only losers will be bears. You invented democracy, but we invented it's natural successor: the greatest financial casino humanity could possibly fathom. We invented the leveraged ETF. We invented the 0dte option. We did this for you, Europe. This is American innovation. This is American culture. This is our American Renaissance. Michelangelo had the Sistine Chapel. Leonardo had the Mona Lisa. America has this unstable, volatile, glorious mess of a market. So, do it for transatlantic relations. For NATO. For McDo. For Disneyland Paris. For Häagen Dasz. For the hedge fund manager in Connecticut that needs a third speedboat. But above all: Do it because line go up. Yours in responsible international capital allocation, America 🦅🇺🇸🗽
That's a bridge too far. The IMF would just impose laws that cut most welfare services until the debt is repaid.
Per **IMF PortWatch, Kpler & Lloyd's List Intelligence, and tankerMap, there are between 1 to 10 tankers passing through a day. Same month last year was about 80 a day.** **Where are you seeing that it is open?**
The World Bank/IMF series shows U.S. personal remittance outflows of roughly: 1995: $22.2 billion 2000: $34.4 billion 2005: $47.8 billion 2010: $50.5 billion 2015: $60.7 billion 2020: $69.9 billion 2021: $73.6 billion 2022: $88.7 billion 2023: $98.3 billion 2024: $103.2 billion https://docs.iza.org/dp7419.pdf?utm\_source=chatgpt.com A study of state E-Verify policies found that reducing employment among likely unauthorized workers increased employment of native-born workers and also raised their hourly wages. That is fairly direct evidence of substitution in at least some labor markets. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/1179/?utm\_source=chatgpt.com A meatpacking case after a 2006 immigration raid: Researchers found that the employer struggled to replace more than 150 workers initially, but subsequently hired more native-born workers after tightening employment verification. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm Pew’s latest industry estimates put unauthorized workers’ share of the workforce at 15% in construction, 14% in agriculture, 8% in leisure/hospitality, 7% in other services, and 7% in professional/business services. At the occupation level, farming was 24% unauthorized, construction 19%, and service occupations 9%. BLS’s August data show +22,000 construction jobs and +62,000 leisure/hospitality jobs. Professional/business services added about 10,000, while other services added about 3,000. And within leisure/hospitality, the particularly relevant category food services and drinking places added 59,200 jobs in August—almost the entire industry’s monthly gain. That’s nearly five times its average monthly gain of 12,000 over the previous year. Americans do want the jobs that undocumented workers have. Here’s my proof.
The World Bank/IMF series shows U.S. personal remittance outflows of roughly: **1995:** $22.2 billion **2000:** $34.4 billion **2005:** $47.8 billion **2010:** $50.5 billion **2015:** $60.7 billion **2020:** $69.9 billion **2021:** $73.6 billion **2022:** $88.7 billion **2023:** $98.3 billion **2024:** $103.2 billion https://docs.iza.org/dp7419.pdf?utm\_source=chatgpt.com A study of state E-Verify policies found that reducing employment among likely unauthorized workers **increased employment of native-born workers** and also raised their hourly wages. That is fairly direct evidence of substitution in at least some labor markets. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/1179/?utm\_source=chatgpt.com **A meatpacking case after a 2006 immigration raid:** Researchers found that the employer struggled to replace more than 150 workers initially, but subsequently **hired more native-born workers** after tightening employment verification. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm Pew’s latest industry estimates put unauthorized workers’ share of the workforce at **15% in construction, 14% in agriculture, 8% in leisure/hospitality, 7% in other services, and 7% in professional/business services**. At the occupation level, farming was 24% unauthorized, construction 19%, and service occupations 9%. BLS’s August data show **+22,000 construction jobs** and **+62,000 leisure/hospitality jobs**. Professional/business services added about **10,000**, while other services added about **3,000**. And within leisure/hospitality, the particularly relevant category **food services and drinking places** added **59,200 jobs** in August—almost the entire industry’s monthly gain. That’s nearly **five times its average monthly gain of 12,000 over the previous year**. Americans do want the jobs that undocumented workers have. Here’s my proof.
Paying off $6 in debt by borrowing $10 at a higher interest rate is very much exactly like that. The US is not suddenly Agentina, that is true. However, Argentina didn't suddenly become Argentina either. Their default on debt started with wild spending and debt accumulation too. The US is just getting started on the capital flight as the bond market tightens. The biggest difference between Argentina and the US will be if the IMF can afford to rescue it from collapse like they had to with Argentina. Or if the US will have any allies left by that time who care enough to help.
it would be funny if warsh hiked rates Volcker style, sent an strongly worded letter to bessent to hike tax rates and cut government spending and forced 🥭 admin to sign an legally binding, UN enforced IMF structural adjustment plan which essentially privatized the entire US government, completely cut all social security and military spending.
it would be funny if IMF imposed fiscal discipline rules on US treasury, 🥭 was forced to appoint an indefinite technocratic liberal cabinet lead by AOC while British, Canadian, Russian, Chinese troops marched on D.C for "security exercises"
it would be funny if Kwarsh hiked rates and IMF forced the US government to completely cut Military, Social security spending and reinvest it into IRS
it would be funny if KWarsh hiked rates 30% unannounced, forced the US treasury to undertake "fiscal discipline plans" imposed by IMF in exchange for 🥭 getting cheap government real estate which he can turn into golf courses, casinos etc.
Cabbage Canada should just name the highest citadel TrumpSBANE... Boom.. Open it to NATO ex-Trump. Commit to defending the UN. Have construction underwriter be the WB. Bank with IMF. Create free universal Healthcare with WHO. House the ICC UN AND EVACUATE SWIZZA BEFORE THE VARIOUS CAROLS CALIPHS AND CATHOLICS COME WITH CALIPERS TO COUNT OUR GHOUL GOLD. You really thought some of you could scizzzzz and shed would let you get away with it. SUIZZA=/=SUI. DUI=HVC=CC=BCH. SORRY BUT SHORT BCH TO THE GROUND. I ALREADY GOT LIQUIDATED 😂😂😂🥭🤣🤣🤣🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤌🏿🤡🫡
>As an old fart who started in 1993 who long did it take your port to run up 6200%? ... I took 4K to as of right now 258K in 3 years with not a single contribution. You couldn’t even dream of doing that in that time span. In my first four years trading, I didn't end a single year with more money than I started with, so you've got me there. I did however spend the following four years working for a private equity firm in the wake of the 1997 Asian IMF crisis. The ensuing acquisition frenzy took me from a junior partner making peanuts to a low eight figure net worth within the same calendar year. Dot-com bubble popping wasn't a fun time, but bought the dip in 2009 and stayed alive, and now here I am. >So yeah as an “old fart” you have me beat but in 30 years my account could very well tower over yours in comparison. Well, I hope you go on to make more money than I did, I mean, am I supposed to root against an online stranger? Don't get so caught up comparing yourself to others. You can be proud of what you've accomplished while simultaneously being aware that what you've done so far is absolutely nothing compared to others. Live your best life with your loved ones, after it's all said and done, no one is going to care about the %s or how quickly you went from X to Y amount of dollars. I've seen a lot of people lose everything trying to rush their way to millions when they didn't have to. Don't end up like them. Good luck young man.
IMF and Fed forecasting 2.2% gdp growth for the year bro.
Zero spread on the 2040s is the line. MSFT and the Treasury both at 5.11. I add duration when that spread opens back up, not when the IMF writes a paragraph. Japan selling $30bn in a quarter is the buyer getting paid to stay home.
it would be funny if US military assets were seized and sold pennies to the dollar by IMF to finance US debt restructuring and 🥭 let it happen because he got a cut of the earnings
US is going to have an "structural adjustment plan" imposed on it by the IMF if 🥭 fucks up the US treasuries even further by acting like an wsb regard with access to government finances. these "structural adjustment plans" entail heavy Austerity, Budget cuts and forced privatization which is good for us treasury holders but extremely shit for everyone else.
bessent talks big shit for being in sovereign debt default distance. IMF forced debt restructuring plans with big budget cuts to Military spending will arrive to the US soon at this pace if the treasury keeps acting like an wsb regard.
I'm Portuguese This is so similar to our position in 2005-2009 It didn't end well (which in our case meant we needed help from the IMF and the EU. In this case it means a total collapse of the world economy)
\> western government bond yields going parabolic \> Chinese government bonds stable and low y'all better learn chinese, read marxist theory for the next post global debt crisis IMF bailout
Guys my IMF market shorting loan got approved finally, I am gonna be a trillionare shorting this market, what a time to be alive, market so easy for me, I own the market makers
I am taking a big fat ass loan directly from IMF and shorting today's market, it's soo soo obvious, Today also puts would take control of the market
The underlying concern about private credit is legitimate and is now explicitly being investigated by the IMF, FSB, regulators and major financial institutions. But the claim that this is definitively “2008 again” from 2027 onward goes substantially beyond what the evidence currently supports.
if 🥭 really wanted to turn the US into manufacturing world power, he would: \-Dismantle all tariffs and trade regulation and other barriers \-Install an WTO and IMF advisory and legislative organ to aid congress and presidency in transitory economic issues with turning a service based economy into a manufacturing one. \-Dismantle labour organizations / unions to push down labour costs and hyper inflate dollar to make labour cheap for foreign investors \-Invest aggressively in Robotics and AI, mining and refining Natural Resources to drop manufacturing costs even further \-Retool the US education system towards creating an cheap blue collar labour force \-Normalize relations with BRICS countries and remove all sanctions to open the massive BRICS market for US exports.
"Inflation and money printing to improve the economy" is certainly a new take. What happened to the IMF's prior, decades-long stances indicating that [high debt-to-gdp have negative correlations with growth](https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2012/157/article-A001-en.xml)? Turns out the secret that no one knew was the first thing every government would try here-- printing your way out of debt? Forgive my skepticism of a paper saying the thing we're doing and that goverments are addicted to doing is the solution to the problem they can't get out of.
I never know when the stagflation beast will come calling so I keep a handy list of ETFs because I don’t trust individual stocks very much in that environment. For commodities, I love PIT and keep an eye on BCD or USE. It’s also not a bad time to go back into gold and everyone seems to have their favorite etf. Mine is GDMN but pick your favorite. Managed futures are a powerful tool when you need hedging. I like IMF as an ETF. For Treasuries, its either VTIP or STIP. For real estate, it’s VNQ. When you just want to hold on to one ETF, it’s probably RAAX which has PIT as its primary holding but adds in various tilts based on futures.
Do you know what else is true? **We SUCK at predicting recessions** [The IMF, in a backtesting study, found economists had (approximately) a 3% accuracy rate at predicting recessions](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2018/03/05/how-well-do-economists-forecast-recessions-45672)
It was correlated because a lot of liquidity left the european bond market so yields just sky rocketed in greece Portugal, there were just no buyers you can see the graphs of both countries in 2011 until IMF stepped in. Once the market sees that the government cant pay its dues its game over. But thats why quantitative easing was created.
I wonder what the prediction markets are saying the odds are for the IMF determining we’re in a technical default on treasuries via our creative yen solution
As of April 2026, the IMF forecasts that the inflation in Iran will hit 69%. 69? Nice.
I was in Korea during the '97 IMF crisis, just a kid, but I gotta say, seeing people jump in front of subways is not a pleasant sight. The screams of the witnesses is a sound that stays with you. Oh, and people jumping off high-rises sound like a watermelon being dropped on the ground if you are within hearing distance. Also, the smell of being setting themselves on fire is not pleasant. But yeah, suicide jokes, cool.
South Korea is an liquidity blackhole Japan is slowly becoming a liquidity blackhole. And the fed, treasury is in no position to bailout two countries and itself at the same time via IMF and other means.
Koreans have an alcohol and gambling problem since the Korean war ended. They were 1 of only 3 countries who begged IMF for bailout, and they borrowed the most out of the 3(57 bil iirc) simply because the extremely overleveraged Korean traders caused KOSPI to crash a total of 75% over 8 months(that's equivalent to SPY dropping from current price of $740 to below $185 btw).
If anyone knows Korea and their history, you know they're powerless to stop it. The BoK has no leverage control and no effective QE policy they can use to stop the bleeding. IMF funds will be available only if this breaks internationally- so far it's a localized contagion. Also, if South Korea has to sell US treasuries to try to stem the bleeding, they'll just worsen their own markets as traders see desperation and short Samsung/SK Hynix harder, killing the KOSPI. We're seeing the death of an economy in real time, and to make it worse they need American dollars to pay for oil imports that they'd still need to function, by the way. The Strait of Hormuz hasn't made anything easier
The only people freaking out are Westerners who don't actually know anything about Korea's financial landscape. Now if bonds crashed, then we'd have a problem here. But majority of Koreans have way more in bonds, real estate, and commodities, than they do equities, and anyone over forty is heavily diversified since we learned from the '97 IMF crisis just how quickly shit can get bad.
Aight folks let's all short Korea and have them go thru IMF crisis again