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I would replace ROE with ROIC. And I’d use a forward-looking analysis (NTM), not a backward-looking one (LTM). I’d also assume at least 7-10% annual growth in revenue and earnings in the model.
CAAP earnings: Consolidated Revenues ex-IFRIC12 reached $472.1 million, up 16.6% year-over-year (YoY), driven by increases of 18.0% and 15.2% in Commercial and Aeronautical revenues, respectively. Excluding rule IAS 29, consolidated revenues ex-IFRIC12 increased 17.5% YoY to $475.4 million. Key operating metrics: 9.3% increase in passenger traffic to 23.3 million. 3.4% decrease in cargo volume to 93.5 thousand tons. 6.9% increase in aircraft movements to 230.3 thousand. Operating Income of $147.0 million, compared with $100.9 million in 3Q24. Adjusted EBITDA ex-IFRIC12 increased 33.6% to $194.3 million, from $145.4 million in the year-ago period. Excluding the impact of rule IAS 29, Adjusted EBITDA ex-IFRIC12 rose 34.9% to $195.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin ex-IFRIC12 expanded 5.2 percentage points to 41.2% from 35.9% in 3Q24. Adjusting for rule IAS 29, Adjusted EBITDA margin ex-IFRIC12 increased to 41.1% from 35.8% in the prior-year quarter. Maintained strong liquidity position with $540.4 million in Cash & Cash equivalents as of September 30, 2025. Net debt to LTM Adjusted EBITDA remained at 0.9x as of September 30, 2025, reflecting continued financial discipline and solid Adjusted EBITDA growth.
Kinda funny that the S&P 500 is up *less* than EPS growth. I didn't check a PE chart or anything, but LTM PE should thus be lower now than last year. Even before this minor correction it was up just slightly more. Meanwhile you can't escape the bubble talk these days. Weird ass bubble if you ask me.
You are overlooking part B. "(b) in the case of products which would constitute Licensed Services and are sold or transferred by Licensee’s production facilities to Licensee’s retail locations (“Retail Products”)," This is describing GTBIF producing its own product, and doing an internal transfer to its own Retail store. Royalty will be on wholesale price to Retail store only. It does make sense and let me try to explain how it benefits GTBIF too. Its actually brilliant. GTBIF with 280e tax currently pays \~77% effective tax rates. So lets say the royalty to RYM for the year is 50m, RYM gets that 50m and just has to pay standard taxes on it say 30% netting them 35m after taxes. If GTBIF kept that as their revenue they are taxed at \~77% netting them 16.5m after taxes. Now it gets even better GTBIF can actually use the Royalty license fee as a tax deduction. So the 50m they sent to RYM will be a tax deduction saving them money. Further GTBIF sold the brands for 50m and then gave a 50m Convertible Note back to RYM, on 10% interest. So GTBIF getting 5m a year from that part too. Now the real value, RYM stock. GTBIF owns over 90% of RYM effectively with the future dilution of shares. When GTBIF feeds RYM income its more valuable in that company. Example 1B Revenue in RYM is 10x more valuable then 1B revenue in GTBIF. GTBIF 1.1B revenue LTM = 1.8B Market Cap (undervalued but still) RYM 1B revenue = \~10-12B market cap This isn't even accounting for the fact that we now have US Cannabis Company on the NasDaq, this could lead to major things when it gains traction
It continues to trade like an overlooked turnaround play heading into earnings. In my opinion, it's still being priced as if it’s the same bloated company from a few years ago. Post CCS sale, they're left with their ANS and Ruckus divisions, which posted $127 million in quarterly adjusted EBITDA in August, up 326% YoY. On an LTM basis, that’s around $300 million EBITDA, and management has stated the business requires minimal capex - directly pointing to future margin expansion. ANS and Ruckus EBITDA margin hit \~25% in Q2, up from \~9% in the previous quarter. With debt continuing to come down and limited capital investment needs (from the CCS sale), there’s room for further margin expansion and deleveraging into 2026. I suspect they'll cross 30% in adjusted EBITDA in 2026 and will provide guidance for such on Thursday. This ultimately all hinges on earnings confirming these trends, and we'll need confirmation that CCS is still on track to close in the first half of 2026. IMO, this looks like one of those post-divestiture stories the market often overlooks until the results speak for themselves. Continued growth in ANS and Ruckus in Q3 and positive sentiment around CCS' eventual closing are the first leg of those results. If guidance is solid, I think the street will revise current 2026 EPS estimates of $1.61 to around \~$1.82-$1.85 (15% markup), and at today's PE ratio of 12.13x, the stock could reprice to \~$22.50 over the next year. Hence, a $2-3 pop.
I should probably get in on this, I've told myself its time... but... \*stares 116.0x LTM p/e for 2 mins\*.... \*cold sweats, shivers\*.... regardless... \*closes eyes, hits buy button\*...
What’s the LTM P/E and EV/EBITDA at $320?
>[TipSpiritual1628](https://www.reddit.com/user/TipSpiritual1628/) >Thoughts on MELI ? Good time to enter? I spent 3 minutes writing the below so I'm gonna comment it even though you deleted your comment lol I've owned for close to 8 years with adds all along the way. Looking at a reverse DCF with TTM data and inputting 25% FCF margin, you'd need \~22% annual revenue growth over the next decade to justify today's price. They've grown revenue 36% over the LTM, 38% in FY24. For FCF margin, they actually hit 31% in 2023 and 34% in 2024. So change the reverse DCF input from 25% to 30% and you need 19.5% annual revenue growth over the next decade to justify today's price. If you want to look at historical valuations, MELI is trading just below their 1Y and 3Y averages on P/S, P/GP, P/FCF, and EV/EBITDA. ||Today|1Y|3Y| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |**P/S**|4.7|5.3|5.3| |**P/GP**|9.1|10.0|9.8| |**P/FCF**|15.3|16.8|19.5| |**EV/EBITDA**|29.5|31.9|32.6| Would I add here? Probably not, but mainly because it's my largest position by cost basis and total value.
Solid play. It’s literally a bunch of nothing burger from the administration. I can’t believe how much ppl are listening to this crap. Do some research Loading up my positions to be my top holding It’s a mediocre but solid company that’s severely undervalued. Don’t look at LTM PE, PE in of itself is a skewed metrics. Look at EV/EBITDA
Tesler market cap: $1,500B Tesler net income LTM: $5.8B **LMAO 🤌🤌**
🐂 Bull Case for Adobe (ADBE) Current price: ~$350 Market cap: ~$158B Free cash flow (LTM): ~$9.4B (~42% margin) --- Why Be Bullish? Recurring Revenue Machine – ~96% subscription-based, highly predictable cash flows. Cash Cow – ~$9.4B in free cash flow (41% margin). Plenty of ammo for buybacks, R&D, AI, and M&A. AI Upside – Firefly, Acrobat AI Assistant, Express integrations = potential multi-billion ARR opportunity. Could justify price hikes & upsells. High Switching Costs – Creative professionals & enterprises are sticky. Hard to rip out Adobe from workflows. Valuation Reset – Stock has pulled back, leaving room for re-rating if growth re-accelerates. Balance Sheet Strength – Low net debt, steady buybacks, optionality to acquire AI players. --- What They Can Do With FCF 🔬 Reinvest in AI (Firefly, document cloud, AI agents). 📈 Sales & Marketing expansion for global growth. 💸 Buybacks (EPS boost, capital return). 🛒 M&A (bolt-on AI/creative tech acquisitions). 🛡️ Debt paydown / buffer for downturns. --- Numbers to Watch Revenue FY25 guidance: $23.5–23.6B Adj. EPS FY25 guidance: $20.50–20.70 FCF margin: ~41% --- Scenarios Base Case (9% growth): 3 yrs rev ~$29B; stock +30–50% 5 yrs rev ~$36–38B; stock +60–80% Bull Case (10–12% growth, AI monetization): 3 yrs rev ~$30–32B; stock +50–70% 5 yrs rev ~$42–44B; stock could double Aggressive AI Upside (12–15% growth, higher margins): FCF $20B+ in 5 yrs → stock potentially 2–3× TL;DR Adobe is a cash-rich, high-margin subscription machine with massive free cash flow and sticky customers. If AI monetization works, it could re-accelerate growth and drive the stock 50–100%+ higher in 3–5 years.
There are 62 The average is 22.7x PE and the median is 13.5x PE Now tell me motherfucker, how much is their median LTM growth? And if you can tell me, what is LMND’s growth versus its valuation compared to ROOT?
That's just non-GAAP PE. The GAAP PE is 575 LTM, peaked around 700ish.
I knew LTM was a solid play for this week but I expected it to rise more than this
Bulk of EU deal investments will be Defence and Energy, EU produces a tonne of it’s own artillery and tanks, also produces a lot of it’s own infantry equipment, however is it EXTREMELY reliant on the US for anything air based or with AI systems. Expecting LTM to benefit hugely as it already is the primary benficiary from US-EU contracts.
Market next week expecting big tech earnings to come out with the cure for cancer or they’ll be sold off, they could do well but i’m playing it safe by holding LTM shares at 422.
$BX Q2 Earnings Recap - EPS: $1.21 vs. $1.10 est. — beat by $0.11 ✅ - Revenue: $3.71B vs. $2.81B est. — beat by $900M ✅ - Revenue grew 33% YoY on strong performance across business lines Assets & Capital Activity - Total AUM: $1.21T (+13% YoY) - Fee-Earning AUM: $887.1B - Perpetual Capital AUM: $484.6B - Inflows: $52.1B for the quarter, $211.8B over LTM 💼 - Deployments: $33.1B (Q2), $145.1B (LTM) 🚀 - Realizations: $23.4B (Q2), $97.5B (LTM) 🏁 - Net accrued performance fees: $6.6B or $5.37/share 💹 Shareholder Return - Declared $1.03/share dividend payable August 11, 2025 💵 - Blackstone COO says we have the largest forward IPO pipeline since 2021
821M Revenue (LTM) - 46% growth YOY, 91% gross margin • 95% of Fortune 500 companies use Figma • 10.5K paying customers with over 10K in ARR • \~ 552M shares outstanding (including RSUs, convertibles and warrants) At IPO price, they will be valued between $14.6B - $16.4B (and Adobe wanted them at $20B, yet they have had 46% growth YOY). genauso in wallstreetbets gefunden, hat der einfach von hier genommen übersetzt und veröffentlicht oder bin ich blöd?
In 2023 Adobe attempted to acquire them for $20B but it fizzled out due to regulatory concerns. • $821M Revenue (LTM) - 46% growth YOY, 91% gross margin • 95% of Fortune 500 companies use Figma • 10.5K paying customers with over 10K in ARR • ~ 552M shares outstanding (including RSUs, convertibles and warrants)
There isn't much to think about, it's a seasonal business so over 12 months is the only way to look at it and with how US healthcare enrollment works its really only a calendar year we can get good data from not LTM especially with the large membership growth I expect positive EPS for Q2, effectively nothing for Q3 and a small loss for Q4 but 3% margins over the year. MLR 81% , SG&A at 16% This stock has the most ridiculously asymmetrical risk/ reward setup I have ever seen and I only wish I had spotted it 6 months ago so I could have accumulated gradually. There are whales out there that have seen the same thing and they are getting shares at fire sale levels from retail.
I’m super bullish. There are small warrants at $3 but this is sitting at an $8M MCAP and is projecting LTM revenue of $75M. If we run a similar P/S to Peloton this would sit at $7.50 per share. 1) Their M&a strategy reminds me of $CTM and I think the market is slow to process the results of M&a companies like $TRNR and $CTM. 2) The majority of Sportstech and Wattbike revenue is Eurocentric, but with greater access to the U.S. market, they have tons of market share to capture. 3) less than 3 years ago, Wattbike was doing $32M in LTM revenue. And Wattbike’s growth is up 33% QoQ. These are two high growth and high potential companies 4) Formes financials are improving and becoming less of a liability. $6.4M in LTM revenue. 5.) they are expecting to close both deals in the coming weeks and are acting like a joint venture already so there is little concern about deals fall through. 6.) recently institutional investors have been piling in according to fintel and are buying up pretty much everything under .85 Personally, I think this is one of the easiest buys in the stock market right now.
Correct it’s only 7 million right now as this is before the businesses have closed. TRNR standalone was only generating $5M annually in revenue before. Which is closer to a 1x P/S. Wattbike generated 17M last year. And Sportstech has generated 54M in LTM revenue. This would put pro forma revenue when the deals close in Q2/Q3 to about $75M in annual revenue. Only $7M in market cap. Thus conservative stock price increase puts this near $3-4
Fwd appears to be 221 for NTM. A significant % of their LTM earnings is from gains on assets/interest, SK even those ratios are misleading somewhat. Maybe, good luck with it
This feels like a trademark case of “this is an unprecedented time that will cause unprecedented market turmoil” that’s pretty pervasive on the financial subs.....best recent case in point being March 2020ish (which IMO was warranted). But then again any time a “BREAKING: Sky is falling!” article hits the WSJ or Bloomberg this reddit-based hysteria runs wild (e.g. Evergrande being the catalyst that’ll send the world economy back a century in 2021; Meta’s imminent demise into insolvency some time during 2022; SVB catalyzing GFC Part 2 – you get the idea) > Today, Trump rejected the ruling from the superior court to bring back a US citizen and discussed to send more US citizens to El Salvador. Of all the things that he’s done.....this is the specific instance that is going to lead to the demise of the United States economy and the UST 10Y yield as the global benchmark for the risk free rate....? This is a bigger constitutional or markets-related crisis, then, say.... * Never accepting the results of the 2020 election and the first time in the history of the United States that there **wasn’t** a peaceful transition of power? * Being Chairman and majority shareholder of a publicly traded company (that went public via de-SPAC, which should create alarm bells....) with $5bn in market cap (on $3.5mm in total sales LTM.....) * Starting his own fucking cryptocurrency * Project 2025 * Treating COVID 19 like it was some elaborate plot to make his life harder and trying to ignore it in hopes that it’ll magically disappear while half a million Americans died as a result * Persistently trying to influence the FOMC interest rate increases / decreases * Packing all federal courts with Unitary Executive theory acolytes, generally somewhere in their late-30s * Walking out of the white house with classified documents....that still haven’t been recovered..... I’d say – yes, certainly alarming – but it’s no failed coup attempt a la Jan 6 > This throws out an important assumption that we have: nobody is above the constitution. The constitution protects our safety, our property, and our rights, but it is no longer been enforced. If that’s the case, wouldn’t 1/6/21 have been successful? > This means Trump may start using unimaginable methods to push his agenda, including revoking license from CBS, closing down companies, removing China stocks from U.S. market or any stocks he doesn’t like, fighting a war on Iran and any action that may save his face. Uh...again, this isn’t anything new he’s just now started doing. He’s not smart enough to plan things like this far out in advance – he’s pure id, acting out of compulsion. For example... * Completely gutting the federal government and gifting a cabinet-level position to the richest man in the world who also happened to be a major financial backer of his campaign * Actively targeting the free press as an enemy of his administration * The rapes. All of them. * Granting DOGE access to government payment systems....including the infrastructure that handles interest rate payments on US Treasury-demoninated debt instruments (gulp....) * Actively threatening to leave NATO (double gulp....) * All the children in cages at the Mexican border * Firing of James Comey This long winded diatribe I’ve embarked on really comes down to two main points: (1) Donald Trump creating market volatility from a series of unhinged actions as the chief magistrate of the USA isn’t new and (2) this is probably another example of someone (probably fairly young) just now getting in the markets and understanding headlines in the financial news media seeing something big and scary that’s actually fairly benign. Doubly so for advocating the liquidation of all United States-denominated investment vehicles [in favor of gold and silver (jfc guys....)]( https://imgur.com/a/O9r37Vc)
This feels like a trademark case of “this is an unprecedented time that will cause unprecedented market turmoil” that’s pretty pervasive on the financial subs.....best recent case in point being March 2020ish (which IMO was warranted). But then again any time a “BREAKING: Sky is falling!” article hits the WSJ or Bloomberg this reddit-based hysteria runs wild (e.g. Evergrande being the catalyst that’ll send the world economy back a century in 2021; Meta’s imminent demise into insolvency some time during 2022; SVB catalyzing GFC Part 2 – you get the idea) > Today, Trump rejected the ruling from the superior court to bring back a US citizen and discussed to send more US citizens to El Salvador. Of all the things that he’s done.....this is the specific instance that is going to lead to the demise of the United States economy and the UST 10Y yield as the global benchmark for the risk free rate....? This is a bigger constitutional or markets-related crisis, then, say.... * Never accepting the results of the 2020 election and the first time in the history of the United States that there **wasn’t** a peaceful transition of power? * Being Chairman and majority shareholder of a publicly traded company (that went public via de-SPAC, which should create alarm bells....) with $5bn in market cap (on $3.5mm in total sales LTM.....) * Starting his own fucking cryptocurrency * Project 2025 * Treating COVID 19 like it was some elaborate plot to make his life harder and trying to ignore it in hopes that it’ll magically disappear while half a million Americans died as a result * Persistently trying to influence the FOMC interest rate increases / decreases * Packing all federal courts with Unitary Executive theory acolytes, generally somewhere in their late-30s * Walking out of the white house with classified documents....that still haven’t been recovered..... I’d say – yes, certainly alarming – but it’s no failed coup attempt a la Jan 6 > This throws out an important assumption that we have: nobody is above the constitution. The constitution protects our safety, our property, and our rights, but it is no longer been enforced. If that’s the case, wouldn’t 1/6/21 have been successful? > This means Trump may start using unimaginable methods to push his agenda, including revoking license from CBS, closing down companies, removing China stocks from U.S. market or any stocks he doesn’t like, fighting a war on Iran and any action that may save his face. Uh...again, this isn’t anything new he’s just now started doing. He’s not smart enough to plan things like this far out in advance – he’s pure id, acting out of compulsion. For example... * Completely gutting the federal government and gifting a cabinet-level position to the richest man in the world who also happened to be a major financial backer of his campaign * Actively targeting the free press as an enemy of his administration * The rapes. All of them. * Granting DOGE access to government payment systems....including the infrastructure that handles interest rate payments on US Treasury-demoninated debt instruments (gulp....) * Actively threatening to leave NATO (double gulp....) * All the children in cages at the Mexican border * Firing of James Comey This long winded diatribe I’ve embarked on really comes down to two main points: (1) Donald Trump creating market volatility from a series of unhinged actions as the chief magistrate of the USA isn’t new and (2) this is probably another example of someone (probably fairly young) just now getting in the markets and understanding headlines in the financial news media seeing something big and scary that’s actually fairly benign. Doubly so for advocating the liquidation of all United States-denominated investment vehicles [in favor of gold and silver (jfc guys....)]( https://imgur.com/a/O9r37Vc)
TBF, in March 2009 the S&P bottomed at 13x the depressed LTM EPS of $50, and only 8x the previous peak (2007) EPS of $83. In today’s terms it would be the equivalent of the S&P at 2000, not 5000. Even the Covid low of 2200 was 13x the previous (2019) peak EPS of $162. -James Chanos market call
I don't think Anduril will touch a putrid mess like LTM
In that case, load up on LTM and enjoy the ride. I agree that Asia is more important for the US, problem is that a trade war between 'allies' will only benefit China. But hey, fuckem em and have fun with the fool they voted for. Just don't come knocking when you plan your next imperial adventure.
Similar to the folks holding shares at $180 on LTM earnings of less than $2
Tesla is currently trading at 350x LTM FCF. I would be a buyer at around 35x LTM FCF, so at ~$30/share.
Wait, why is ENPH's revenue down 40% in the LTM? No wonder they're in an 80% drawdown.
>They even bought major fulfilment warehouses and were going to focus on gross sales. But when inflation kicked in and timed started to look different they sent out a message saying they need to focus on the bottom line and trimming fat. They've been getting outta leases and closing unprofitable stores. What are you talking about - their margins [are complete shit, and have proceeded to only get shittier](https://imgur.com/a/Ti4geL2) >Total revenue is down as a result of this, but improving the bottom line and profit margins became the focus. Um, wat? See above... >When your company was shorted to shit because the world thinks you will go bankrupt, you don't focus on total revenue. What do short sellers have to do with how easy / difficult it is to run a brick-and-mortar video game retail business? And I agree with you -- Gamestop has been [god-awful at managing their working capital](https://imgur.com/a/OQLN0AK) in a needlessly asset-heavy business that thrives off of turnover and in-store foot traffic. And their management of said working capital has only gotten shittier by their cash conversion cycle ballooning over the last 5 years.... >Being profitable and sitting on a billions of cash kinda says I'm alive and well more then increased revenue number by X%. But...they're not profitable? In fact, outside of seasonal Q4 driven demand, [they've been consistently generating negative](https://imgur.com/a/rKeywLM) * EBIT * EBITDA * CFOps * FCF (on virtually zero capex, either....) >Being profitable also allows you to offer a dividend, an appealing thing to investors, and historically has been used to force short selling to close positions or pay out the dividend themselves. lmao, dude, look at ANY of the historical financial figures mentioned above and tell me again that issuing a dividend is a realistic option for these guys? Especially when free cash flow is consistently burning 9 figures per quarter out of the business >And yes the billions in cash "was raised on the backs of investors" or whatever the saying is people like to say lol but every single form of a company raising funds has some cost to investors, just some you don't see so directly. Right, but a mature business shouldn't be issuing S-3's left and right to keep the lights on and remain solvent. Think we can easily classify this under the "Not Very Good" header, for those keeping score at home > They say good CEOs offer shares when they can, not when they should. And they've done that. Hey now, I think you're onto something here -- the CEO has done that....\*checks notes\*....to the tune of issuing [~150mm shares in the LTM alone](https://imgur.com/a/XjbAo4h) (so 50% increase in share count....) >Seems more like previous management was running it into the ground on purpose with how many stores they opened so close to eachother. Look at those profitability metrics again. Take note of the change pre-2019 and after. Seems like the previous management team was too busy focusing on silly things like "cash flow" and "strategy" instead of dedicating their time to the important issues executives need to focus on like running a sellside M&A process on Twitter and bitching and whining about DEI initiatives.... >And they're selling Canadian stores because it's more trouble/work than it's worth. They're selling Canadian stores because they're running a business that's inherently overburdened by physical overhead and have been outpriced by e-commerce based competitors that also have the benefits of scale to further reduce prices. >He gets no salary and no share packages. Seems appropriate for a guy that's effectively running a UST ETF
[PowerBI](https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGNjYWFiZmYtNzY1Mi00OGQzLWIxN2UtN2UwMjcwODU2YjM1IiwidCI6ImU3MjhmNjY1LTc4ZGYtNDgzMS1hM2I2LTM5ZmRlODg1YzI4YiIsImMiOjJ9)
GCP grew at about 30% and they said on their earnings call that they didn't have enough hardware to capture all the demand, which is part of why they increased their CapEx forecast for 2025. I bought LEAPS when they dipped below $160 last fall, hoping to pile some more $$$ in soon. Not sure what the catalyst is for them to maintain a 27-30x LTM multiple, probably need to commercialize Waymo more (and be louder about the opportunity), or Deepmind, or Willow (way off unfortunately), so I'll probably be exercising and holding for a bit.
I think the R&D side is only valuable if it equates to revenue down the line. As such, I would still consider their market cap of 120m over-valued with their revenue of 7m in the LTM. They are showing revenue growth, so maybe they’ll get there, but as mentioned, they are low on cash and lose about 20m a year. They probably need to at least 10x their current revenue to be close to cash flow positive. You can do the math at their current share price to how much they would need to dilute to cover their losses. I agree with the comment of wait till 2026-27. Right now this one is quite risky
[PowerBI](https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGNjYWFiZmYtNzY1Mi00OGQzLWIxN2UtN2UwMjcwODU2YjM1IiwidCI6ImU3MjhmNjY1LTc4ZGYtNDgzMS1hM2I2LTM5ZmRlODg1YzI4YiIsImMiOjJ9)
[PowerBI Link](https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGNjYWFiZmYtNzY1Mi00OGQzLWIxN2UtN2UwMjcwODU2YjM1IiwidCI6ImU3MjhmNjY1LTc4ZGYtNDgzMS1hM2I2LTM5ZmRlODg1YzI4YiIsImMiOjJ9)
It’s possible one is probably using LTM as of q3 2024 (and only updating once all components have reported, we are halfway through earnings season) and the other is using LTM as reported updating live as companies report. Who knows, the fwd consensus multiple is what’s important
Casually outperforming PLTR on a LTM view
You’re an idiot if you think anyone cares about an LTM P/E. EV / EBITDA on next years numbers is all that matters. You’re going to get wrecked if you keep this up
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGNjYWFiZmYtNzY1Mi00OGQzLWIxN2UtN2UwMjcwODU2YjM1IiwidCI6ImU3MjhmNjY1LTc4ZGYtNDgzMS1hM2I2LTM5ZmRlODg1YzI4YiIsImMiOjJ9
This is not financial advice, I am by no means an expert, and I understand that there are technical and momentum traders that understand way more than I do… That being said, here is why I will not touch this stock: Market Cap: $125m Revenue: $7m LTM. Growing YoY but trading at a 18x price to sales is insanely overvalued. Net Loss: $21m These are some great partnerships, but I’m sorry, these revenues are paltry. They would need to 10x their sales for this to become interesting and come close to justifying their current valuation. To me this a pure hype stock, and may be good in the future, but you’re going to be holding your bags a long time while the share price pumps and dumps. To all these bag holders, best of luck! And I hope you turn a profit at one point if you haven’t already.
I’d suggest reading the S-1 from August. Millions of additional shares from warrants and convertible notes are sitting out there waiting to dilute. $8mm in LTM revenue and over $50mm in debt. This company needs to expand its footprint to scale and grow. The only way to do that is through capital raises. With this much debt, the only way to do that is through equity. Which means dilution. Common shares outstanding goes up…share price goes down. Buyer beware.
Sold division and paid off debt. Uptrend in rest of divisions. Current multiple EBITDA LTM is around 5 times (industry average is 7-8)
I am an 18 year old student. I have 5K saved and am looking at investing in defence stocks such as RTX LTM BAE due to the developing threat in ukraine, and allies increasingly upping their defence spending. Any advice as to whether this is an awful idea? i dont know how much to put in, when to invest, if to even invesst; I'm new at this. Thanks!
Don't forget that the whole supply chain for Tesla is going to increase in pricing, controlled through the PRC of course (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/where-does-tesla-get-its-lithium-updated-2024): At the end of 2021, Tesla inked a three-year lithium supply deal with top lithium producer Ganfeng Lithium (OTC Pink:[GNENF](https://investingnews.com/stocks/otcmkts-gnenf-us/ganfeng-lithium-co-ltd-class-h/),SZSE:002460), and the Chinese company began providing products to Tesla starting in 2022. Major miner Arcadium Lithium (NYSE:[ALTM](https://investingnews.com/stock-information/?symbol=altm),ASX:LTM), which is set to be [acquired](https://investingnews.com/rio-tinto-arcadium-lithium-acquisition/) by Rio Tinto (ASX:[RIO](https://investingnews.com/stock-information/?symbol=rio:au),NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) also has supply contracts in place with the EV maker. China’s Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group (SZSE:[002497](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/002497.SZ/)) agreed to supply battery-grade lithium hydroxide to Tesla [through 2030](https://www.greencarcongress.com/2023/08/20230805-tesla.html). Under a new, separate agreement finalized in [June 2024](https://www.theassay.com/articles/feature-story/tesla-yahua-agree-to-three-year-lithium-carbonate-supply-deal/), Yahua is set to supply Tesla with an unspecified amount of lithium carbonate between 2025 and 2027, with the option to extend the contract by another year.
MSFT had Net Income and revenue so stagnant LTM you might wonder how the hell it got multiple like that.
You can get lost in the weeds with some of this stuff, but really they are all just tools available to you when analyzing a stock, many of which will be useless in certain scenarios. As you continue to learn and practice, you will quickly pick up on what makes sense to use in a particular case. For example, financial institutions and real estate companies have industry specific metrics that you would want to consider - there’s no one size fits all. I did see someone commented ROE which is a solid one too. Check out the DuPont analysis if you want to really break down ROE and see what’s truly driving it. It might be helpful to think about how the process would typically unfold, so using price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples as an example to illustrate. P/E multiples (and many other) come in a few different flavors - Last 12 months (LTM), Next 12 months (NTM), etc. - that each tell you different things. For example, the denominator in the NTM P/E ratio would be the forecasted earnings over the next 12 months. I personally prefer metrics that incorporate forecasted earnings/cash flows given that value is derived from future cash flows and the market as a whole is generally “forward looking.” Once you have the NTM P/E, you’ll quickly realize you’re not really getting much information, it’s just a number with little context. Take a look at the historical average NTM P/E for the company - is it trading above or below? If it’s trading above it could mean it’s expensive or perhaps there’s been a fundamental shift that warrants a premium to historical valuations. How is it trading relative to its sector / industry / named peers? If two companies with identical business models and growth opportunities, all else equal they should be trading at a similar forward PE. If there’s a significant spread between the two companies, it would suggest that one is relatively under-/overvalued. If you are confident in your forecasting ability, you could derive a “fair value” forward PE and see if it contrasts with what the market is pricing. Those are just a few ways you can think about using multiples to get started. From there, I would start exploring future growth prospects in more detail and compare them with the relevant sector, industry and broader market forecasts. You can leverage research from analysts that cover the stock for growth forecasts, but I would make sure to take with a grain of salt and get multiple different perspectives. If growth is projected higher than peers, it could mean the company has a competitive advantage or that those expectations are overly optimistic and hard to deliver. Once you get to this point, that’s where more company specific analysis will come into play and qualitative factors such as management, corporate governance, etc. Hope you find this helpful!
What you are saying is meaningless as the OPs rambling about value based on 4 metrics. How much did Apple return to their shareholders vs how much MSFT did? One returned 3% over the LTM, and one returned less 1% in terms of buybacks and dividends. If you want to argue that is low returns based on current yields, sure, but your point on cult is utterly moronic since Apple ownership is passive- retail at any level don’t move the needle; nothing moves the needle. Its a 2.5T company that generates 100B+ in FCF. The premium is passive investing plus quality similar to most mega cap
I personally think PTON will be a good earnings play. They've been really tightening up OpEx and should be cash flow positive on an LTM basis when they report on the current quarter. I'm still holding some Dec25 $3c that I bought right before last earnings, will probably buy some shorter term calls when we get closer to earnings.
GOOGL price has been relatively sticky since it got cut down a few months ago, though you'll have 2 or 3 days post earnings, probably, so could see a run up back towards a more normal 25x LTM PE. DCA or rolling out are what I'd lean towards with a preference for rolling out since that would give you some more time post earnings, a few days isn't really enough IMO. Fwiw I'm long GOOGL through options, but my strikes are Dec25 through Jun26.
This is a really interesting value play, super low PE, not a lot of bullshit in earnings, scary amount of debt, but LTM operating fcf is $100mm and growing and good history of repayment means they'll probably be able to easily roll the $250mm+ of debt due in 2026 (they'll probably generate $200mm+ by then). Revenue declines are obviously scary, is this a slowly melting ice cube that will just be throwing off cash?
How TF is palantir a $81B company on $2.5B sales and $325M of LTM EBITDA.