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The cure for high oil prices is high oil stocks. XOM hit ATH this week. Time to buy late(r) movers. $RIG $PR $CPG $NOG
The cure for high oil prices is high oil stocks. XOM hit ATH this week. Time to buy late(r) movers. RIG PR CPG
Unpopular opinion: oil prices will stay high until oil stocks go up
Top 5 companies by insider *selling* activity over the past month
Mentions
Canada has been in a recession for two quarters now. If the US enters recession territory then oil tanks. I wouldn’t touch OFS with a ten foot pole.
depends on the stock. The big boys have done super well but OFS and small caps have gotten killed. As have a lot of OPEC+ countries with higher breakevens.
OFS is a solid BDC that pays a 16% dividend but is being bullied by short sellers, at least some of which appear to be foreign. It’s very cheap, trades at a very low PE and is under the radar.
here's what chatgpt said * Among the blue‑chips, **OFS (Furukawa)** is the only one already shipping a catalogue cable built for drone spools. * **Corning** and **Prysmian** supply the ultralight bend‑insensitive glass that integrators wind onto spools, so they benefit indirectly. * If demand for jam‑proof FPV drones keeps climbing (Ukraine is already buying tens of thousands), watch for **Sumitomo/OFS capacity adds** and for **specialty integrators like TE Connectivity or Gore** to IPO or spin out pure‑play tether divisions
In your DD i think would be valuable to see/get an idea on how many of those rigs are contracted long term and at what rates? OFS companies are easy to assess in terms of future cash flow and won't usually capture much on the short term upside if they are all contracted long-term with huge backlogs, also if they have many spare rigs might hint that are old hence not much demand will come. that being said makes sense to be bullish on OFS companies given forward expected utilisation driven by high capex spending from E&Ps given the relatively high spot at the moment
> One important thing to note is the business becomes profitable at $80 a barrel of WTI. This goes up massively at $90, $100, etc. That's basically the gist of it. Now for the fun part.. What’s your source for this statement? OFS profitability isn’t directly linked to oil price like a producer’s would be.
$OXY might be too late but that has the biggest correlation based on my research. Obviously levered oil etfs. My favorite plays are the second order plays like $ACDC (ProFrac- an OFS company), $ANDE (Anderson’s farms- heavy exposure to ethanol, corn, wheat, etc) , and $ADM
https://home.treasury.gov/data/troubled-asset-relief-program >As of September 30, 2023, the total amount disbursed for TARP programs was $443.5 billion and OFS collected $425.5 billion (or $443.1 billion if including the $17.5 billion in proceeds from the additional Treasury American International Group, Inc. [AIG] shares) through repayments, sales, dividends, interest, and other income. After considering the interest expense of $13.1 billion, the net cost of TARP programs was $31.1 billion. >>[While Congress authorized $700 billion for TARP, Treasury utilized far less than that. The TARP actual lifetime cost was approximately $31.1 billion, **most of which was attributable to the program's efforts to help struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure.**](https://home.treasury.gov/data/troubled-assets-relief-program/about-tarp). Last part is interesting because Jon Steward would grill politicians why we couldn't bailout the homeowners instead the banks and TIL we did.
Thanks. OFS Capital Corporation is a business development company that primarily invests in senior secured, floating rate loans to US-based middle market borrowers (source: company's website). I took a look at the financials: the are operating at a loss since 2022. How sustainable is the dividend payment if they cotinue to operate at a loss?
No. E&P would do awful as seen during 2015-2019 bc prices remain low and they’re burning capital. OFS would do good as E&P is drilling. MLPs are a better area since Trump would approve their projects and be pro nat-gas over renewables.
yeah i think gold miners correlate highest with silver bc both are greed instruments in the PM trade. Strap in. Copper is a slower mover I think. I’m mostly in uranium but I quickly upped my PM positions to 10% for what I hope is a quick and fast ride and I’ll buy copper, iron ore, or uranium stocks after. What I’m afraid of is missing out on oil though. I have some OFS positions but not much.
I like RIG. RIG calls saved my options portfolio lol. Maybe check out diamond offshore if you like OFS. it’s a potential takeout target. I also am a subscriber to a service with a weekly zoom meeting where the guy consistently says PBR.A is one of the best stocks to buy on the market lol.
When CVX announced a huge buyback, lots of people here were bullish, coincidentally, that was the top for the stock. I became bearish when Schlumberger, an OFS company gave great guidance and announced high activity in the energy space. That was when I sold all my non-midstream energy stocks because it signaled a cyclical top for energy prices. Well what has happened since then? Natural gas production is near all time highs, prices at near all time inflation-adjusted lows, meanwhile all Russian crude production is being absorbed by EM markets and OPEC had to cut just to keep prices from falling. Then you have work from home, if you believe that half the office workers aren't going back to CBD offices, probably overblown, but that's why office stocks are crashing, why would you be bullish energy demand in the long term? So no, I don't believe we are in an structural supply shortage, if we were, OPEC wouldn't be cutting production at all, Henry hub at sub $2.5 tells you we have huge oversupply of natural gas, which will reduce earnings of many oil companies going forward.
I've been working in-or-around oil and gas since I got out of undergrad in 2013 - half as an auditor in the B4 and the other half as an investment banker at a BB. Even today, I don't have the entire energy industry figured out - it's full of weird accounting nuances, different investor preferences, and even different valuation assumptions (e.g. NAV vs DCF, no going concern assumption for assets you're depleting down to $0). Shit, even the different subverticals within industry are all completely different between E&Ps, midstream, OFS, and refining....which doesn't even account for the new, high growth energy verticals that are emerging like CCS/CCUS, hydrogen, SAF, renewable diesel, and RNG. So "figuring out" all the different verticals that are out there (M&M, FIG, CPG, retail, healthcare, tech, industrials, energy, etc) isn't something you're going to do on reddit in a single afternoon.
Seriously doubt they’d ever buy a major OFS company. It took them years to work their way out of those businesses. I worked for XOM when this move was occurring before becoming an energy analyst on the street. Classic case of outsourcing highly-specialized tech development vs building/maintaining it.
OP asked about OFS, not E&P cos. Your response should be to OP, not me.
3 of the top 5 producing countries arent OPEC, which is basically KSA, UAE and a collection of fuckwits who cant operate worth a shit without US OFS expertise. Exxon is not an OPEC NOC and produces from fields beyond OPEC. You dont understand as much as you think you do.
I am a bot. You submitted a picture of a banned ticker, OFS. The market cap of OFS is **134,064,500** This check will fire if you included unnecessary pictures that have bad keywords/phrases. Repost with the useless pictures omitted if you did that.
XLE, even after the dip, is up 44% this year Some of the smaller cap O&G stocks were not that risky and have doubled. For example, TDW is up 161% YTD with a 1.5B market cap. Other OFS stocks like VAL and NE have also done well, but not as well as TDW.
Long term, oil companies are still facing some challenges like increased competition from renewables. So OFS like SLB, while a great stock short term, I wouldn't bet on it long term. Actually if OFS stocks start going up, that could be a leading indicator of increasing production, so it wouldn't actually be that good for oil prices in general and for upstream E&Ps. Long term, I Would only hold the best in the space, as the smaller ones have too much risk of going out of business if we successfully reduce or cap oil demand. Like CVX (integrated), EPD (midstream), MPC (refiner).
I am a bot from /r/wallstreetbets. You submitted one or more banned tickers: OFS. We don't allow discussion of low market cap (less than 500mm) tickers to prevent pump & dump spam and scammers.
You're thinking of an energy company the same way you'd think about a retail chain or department store selling widgits - don't do that, it doesn't work that way. If you're an E&P who's selling 100% of your production on the crude spot market, your costs don't change as quickly as prices in the spot market do. So if one day I'm producing and selling 1000 barrels per day in production to who ever will take it for what ever price the market is charging for oil that day. If one day, those $1000 barrels are sold for $50,000, netting you a nice profit of $20,000, assuming that your costs to produce that barrel are $20 / boe. The next day, the markets go crazy and oil is now selling for $75/bbl. You're still producing 1000 barrels a day to sell on the spot market, and due to how fast those prices change (+ the fact that your engineers and OFS provider are all either being paid salary or are contracted to service your acreage for multiple years), your costs stay flat. Now, tell me - what are the effects of the increase in oil prices on your company's P&L?
Anyone actually involved in OFS ops from the RiV on knew there was no conceivable way the Afghans would hold the country. The execution of the pullout was uppercase FUCKED.. but at least we didn’t leave at the original deadline or it would’ve been worse, a lot worse. Zero respect for former and current POTUS in how they handled ending OFS/RS.
Am I just retarded? Oil is trading at approximately where it was like 25 days ago - there is no fundamental story where oil won’t be elevated for months to come. OIH - oilfield services - is currently trading at May levels of 2021. The rig count has gone from 373 to 574 and it rising weekly. OFS ebitda’s will be skyrocketing in Q2 and 3. China opening back up + stimmy, SPR release will dry up, only way to fix supply shortages is thru capex and investment. Could go on and on.. This pullback in OIH is a gift from the gods
I agree with your concept. However, 2024 leaps are gonna be expensive as volatility increases, and if markets do recover you'd be losing due to lower IV. People are buying energy scraps now, but energy has juice left because energy stocks are NOT priced for $120 oil and $10 natty. That being said, I've been 60% in energy, metals, and softs since mid-2021, and began feathering out into cash and gold last week. That being said, your bearish reasons 3 and 5 are stretches, cuz we're not shutting down for covid again and US shale permits would still take a year or more to drill due to lack of OFS labor and equipment. Also, unlike past energy up-cycles, E&P companies are now far more disciplined in capex won't drill significantly more based on high spot prices. And China re-opening up is incredibly bullish for crude prices, which directly benefits the more unhedged E&Ps (XOP), OFS (OIH), and the internationals.
I will try to explain this in very simple terms, so that you can understand, hopefully. Rig count is a very misleading indicator that is loved by simple-thinking OFS folks that want to pretend in front of Wall Street investors that their company deserves more love because drilling and fracturing are good businesses now.... Rig count and frac spreads count will never really tell you that Shale operators have cut almost completely exploration budgets. Basically we are drilling and producing from a closed system that is depleting and is not being “replenished” with new reserves.... This article is very compelling to me: https://www.naturalgasintel.com/global-ep-capex-in-2022-led-by-u-s-eps-with-privates-playing-outsized-role/ QUOTING: The Lower 48 outlook is a bit less optimistic on the spending front longer term. E&P analyst Steve Richardson said U.S. onshore unconventional production “has likely peaked.” Domestic explorers are “in an era of low-to-no growth.” Onshore operators in the United States are up against a wall, faced with “declining well productivity and increasingly challenging geological conditions limiting production growth,” Richardson said. In addition, the U.S. privates are playing “an outsized role.” Private E&Ps today have about 60% of the U.S. land rig count under their control, but they only account for 13-15% of Evercore’s 2021/2022 domestic capex estimates. Furthermore, if for a minute we entertain you argument on rig count, such drilling activity “surge” in NAM onshore is happening after 5-7 fuckin years of highly insufficient CAPEX levels, basically starting from the catastrophic late-2014 crush. The intro of the article above and the first figure shows very clearly the point I have been trying to make. QUOTING: “The U.S. exploration and production (E&P) sector is increasing its capital spending in 2022 for the first time in four years”... Look I don’t want to sound catastrophic, but I talk daily with a lot of reservoir engineers and geo-scientists, and I can guarantee you that I truly wish they all were as optimistic as you are.... Good luck thou
OFS and ARI... Really, **I believe** Any commercial real estate stock in the US will do. Why? Real estate doesn't depreciate, is always in demand, and the fact that its commercial means it has a relationship to a reliable financial entity of a business.
OFS companies are able to shift their assets around the easiest to adapt to sanctions. They do. It sing land contracts like IOCs or EnPs. Any of them are decent from RIG to SLB. NOTE: Not financial advice. I eat crayons. I am dumb.
>Most of the small to mid caps I follow are priced as if oil is $60 right now. Fully agreed. There are some EPs and OFS whose price lag the general sector uplift. Good value play for 1yr ahead.
SoFi, Viatris, PubMatic, Coupgang, Gap Inc., OFS 👀🤫
Don’t forget OFS. It can save lot of taxes once chips act passes. I think semiconductor industry is going to get better policy support then solar industry.
lol weirdly enough my very first year working full time out of college, I was an external auditor within the B4, and my very first audit client was Halliburton. This was also in 2013....so right after Macondo / Deep Water Horizon and had a DOJ judgement of $1bn USD rendered upon them........yet they seem to have made it out OK here in 2020, despite the entire OFS industry having gone to complete shit.
for similar results, see OFS.
Not a big fan of trading services...theres still a lot fo competition In OFS, increasing efficiency has led to less of a need to run more rigs and frac spreads, Operators are focusing on maintaining production (shockingly) so no room to run imo.
So RIG in particular, is an offshore OFS company. So these guys were buried 6 ft underground, cement slab poured on top, no chance of survival, left for dead type shit. However!!! Offshore drilling does make alot of sense economically at 75 and above dollar oil. So, huge speculative play, but high risk, high reward.
The companies that perform services on wells and make equipment still have some room to run. Those OFS (oilfield service) stocks haven’t snapped back the way O&G operators have.
Part III: > the Risk Factors you rattle off from the recent 2020 10-K, particularly related to PREPA, are verbatim the same Risk Factors disclosed in the 2019 10-K. If there was something incrementally new since the 2019 10-K hit, I'd give you credit, but that's not the case = old news Risk Factors disclosed in 10-Ks are meant to outline ALL of the potential risk that could harm the business or stock price. There are inherent risks in investing. If every risk factor in every 10-K in every company was taken at face value with a high probability of materializing, nobody would invest in companies! When I look through 10-Ks, I look for changes in Risk Factors compared to the previous version…new incremental risks, or adjustments to the language, are what can be noteworthy. The ones you cite have been listed for some time now. = old news "It's noteworthy that at a time when energy shares, generally speaking, are surging with the rise in oil prices, shares of TUSK are down. In fact during the few hours I've been writing this article the companies stock is down 8%, and appears headed for further decline today when the market opens." --> perhaps this is because a) many investors increasingly don't view TUSK as an OFS/Energy play b) you are cherry picking the performance within a very small timeframe of mere hours that fall within a single day...this is the data point you use to reference a trend? c) the stock is up +154% since the end of December (following their 3rd validation by FEMA of their work performed for PREPA, following their $40M Aqua Wolf engineering contract, and following their Q4 results which demonstrated continued progress in their Infrastructure business and potential signs of life on the OFS side). = misleading On one hand you note: "the EPIC business also is going to do well. The government, once it settles the current COVID relief package, will very likely begin deliberating a huge multi-trillion dollar infrastructure package that could very well benefit companies like TUSK...I could try and describe their prowess at securing this sort of work, but I would never do as well as some old older articles by a former contributor who helped to put this company on the map... Mr. Bert, a now deceased, retired Wall Street trader who devoted a good bit of his early writing to TUSK. These are worth reading as Mr. Bert went into great detail as to why TUSK would be successful in the E&C business...focus instead on the very elaborate detail he provided on the core of the EPIC business that TUSK proved they could capture. Mr. Bert was one of a kind"...and then later you write: "The future of the company is undoubtedly in the EPIC/Infrastructure business for which they have shown an ability to secure work, and is growing and will continue to grow for the foreseeable future."... which is then dubiously followed by this statement: "It's also difficult to say if TUSK will be broadly successful in securing infrastructure work in this country. Most of their historical revenue of this type has been from PREPA and associated with their original contract and extensions. As such I'm not going to infer any revenue gain to justify an incremental value above an arbitrary $1.00 per share. If the stock were to sink to this marginal level it might be worth taking a stake, as the book value of the company \~$550 mm would cover liabilities of $263 mm with a substantial bit left to pick over at the Sheriff's auction" = sensationalist + conflicting with your own statements + lacking clarity + misleading + nonsensical 9) So let me get this straight...you admit that their EPC/Infrastructure business is "going to do well...has a proven ability to secure work...is growing...is the future of the company...and will continue to growth for the foreseeable future" (all your words) and then in the next breath you cast doubt on their ability to secure work in "this country" (assuming when you write "this country" you are referring to the US???) because their historical revenue was concentrated in Puerto Rico with the PREPA contract...and thus surmise no value should be given to his business and the stock should be worth $1.00 per share? I'm almost wondering if you proofread your article before posting it...did you forget that earlier in the article you cited their Infrastructure business generated $155M of Revenue in 2020, (which posted 15% EBITDA margins for the 2H of 2020)? = sensationalism + conflicting with your own statements + lacking clarity + misleading + makes no sense at all 10) Last but not least: you don't provide any estimates, math, inputs...or anything close to a reasonable basis for how you arrive at your $1.00 target. You think a business that has a 20% CAGR with high teens EBITDA margins and macro tailwinds should be trading at a multiple of less than 1x EV/EBITDA? Zero substance demonstrated on how you arrive at such an outlandish, baseless claim...just a "finger in the air" approach to security valuation? You should do your readers (and your credibility) a favor and explain to us how you arrive at this ridiculous conclusion. This article is both reckless (for your reputation) and useless (for your readership). = sensationalism + conflicting with your own statements + lacking clarity + misleading + makes no sense at all PS: the correct abbreviation is "EPC"...which stands for "Engineering, Procurement, and Construction". There is no "I" in it...it's not "EPIC" PPS: "Just a few weeks ago they announced a substantial EPIC contract with an unnamed utility worth $40 mm to provide services of this type. The secrecy here is curious... but, we're not going to dwell on it at present." --> there is no conspiracy here my friend, even though it appears you want to plant that seed and spin it that way. It's called an NDA, or a Non-Disclosure Agreement, and is very common in this business. Look at any of the recent MSA contract awards with investor owned utilities that Orbital Energy Group (ticker: OEG) has announced in Q4'20 and Q1'21...they do not name the utility or its investor owners. Orbital must be conspiring in the same "curious secrecy" that you allude to in the case of Mammoth! Take off the tin foil hat...you might get struck by lightning. PPS: If you don't like receiving brutally honest responses like this, maybe you should be a bit more responsible and restrained with the sensationalist and provocative garbage you're willing to publish to the investing public. "Wishin' And A Hopin" you the very best with your short crusade to $1.00 per share. Best of luck with that.
Part II: >For comparisons...lets take a gander at the current EV/EBITDA multiples afforded to other players in the Civil Engineering/Infrastructure Services space: PRIM = 6x '21 estimates MTZ = 9x '21 estimates AEGN = 9x '21 estimates (taken out at that multiple) DY = 10x '21 estimates PWR = 11x '21 estimates OEG = 13.5x '22 estimates (OEG isn't expected to be EBITDA positive until '22) Net Debt is down -30% since Q4'19 and Cash has been steadily increasing...now up +181% since it bottomed in Q4'19 (also when Infrastructure Services Revenue and EBITDA both bottomed, which also coincided with this new management team coming aboard to lead Lion Power Services). Now...take a stock that is trading at a meaningful discount to most of its Infrastructure peers, and layer on top of this three free call options that you get when buying the stock: their depressed OFS business coming back to life, even at the margin...after all, crude oil is trading back above prices immediately seen before COVID, even with many COVID travel restrictions still in place and the economy not full reopened yet. 2) even a partial recovery of the funds owed to them from the PREPA bankruptcy. 3) the high likelihood of their eventual entry into Renewable/Clean Tech projects (via Aqua Wolf)If either of the first two call options get exercised this year, well then the stock is even cheaper than 5x EBITDA right now...perhaps in the 2x to 3x range...with the prospect for meaningful multiple expansion if the third option goes in the money and they begin winning contract awards in the Renewable Energy/Clean Tech space (you know how much Reddit loves Renewable Energy!). You want to short a stock that is trading at 5x EBITDA (perhaps even lower) in a high quality, high margin business that is growing...with potential upside from 1) a potential positive PREPA outcome in the cards sometime in the near future 2) potential for their OFS business to twitch back to life out of its coma (or the potential for them to sell these assets and pay down debt), and 3) the potential for multiple expansion afforded to companies that gain traction in the Renewable Energy/Clean Energy Tech/Energy Transition space? Have fun with that. TUSK is undergoing a business transition, away from legacy OFS with a clear, decisive and actionable focus towards Infrastructure Services in the future. Usually business transitions take some time, but it’s very clear this transition that is underway is not only working and gaining traction, but also gaining steam…and at a very opportune time for civil infrastructure projects. So that's my view. Now...some comments on your view and statements in this article: 10 REASONS this article is a hack job: Many, if not most, of the reasons you cite for being bearish on the stock are either OLD news being regurgitated for the sake of sensationalism, conflict with statements you yourself make in the same article, lack clarity, are misleading, or make no sense at all (or all of the above): languishing and depressed OFS business = old news related to PREPA litigation...you note "for which they are now in litigation" --> the litigation has been going on for years now (also that much closer to a resolution) = old news related to their high customer concentrations… this has been noted in their 10-K Risk Factors for years; they’re actively working to diversify into new businesses with new customers = old news related to the high concentration of their top two shareholders (Wexford/Gulfport)…this has been the case since they IPO'd. Wexford and Gulfport took TUSK public = old news 4a) Wexford has not sold a single share of their stake since around the highs in mid 2018. They are clearly in this for the long haul and still believe in the company. If I had to guess, they wouldn't even be tempted to sell until the stock reaches at a minimum the initial IPO price of $12. 4b) might the Gulfport stake be sold off due to their Ch. 11 bankruptcy proceedings? Sure, perhaps. A transaction like this indeed might temporarily weigh on the price of the stock, but it would not impair the underlying fundamentals of the business. In addition, it could very well be received as a positive for the stock with the removal of an overhang
Sorry the comment is below.....it's brilliant: Part I: \------------ > Anyone buying this stock should not be buying it for the OFS business. In fact, when I think of TUSK, I don't even view it as an OFS company. Those businesses are part of legacy TUSK...old news, not growing, in decline, and certainly not the future of this company. This also might be why the stock isn't trading in lockstep with oil prices and energy shares as you typed your article. You're an oil and energy guy, so I can understand why you'd make this mistake and remain hung up on this side of their business, while also breezing over and giving very little credit to the other side (Infrastructure/Civil Engineering). Mammoth Energy Services, or TUSK, is an Infrastructure Services company masquerading as an OFS business, and its actually still quite cheap here even with all of the "hair" that you outline, with some upside optionality to boot. It's not in disarray, its misunderstood and transforming into something new and improved (and outside your area of focus)...and frankly the proof is in the pudding. It is common knowledge that their OFS business is and has been languishing. This should not be news to anyone. So for argument's sake, why don't we just go ahead and value their OFS business at zero for now, and keep it tucked in our back pocket as a free call option on that business coming back to life even marginally, or perhaps a sale of these assets at some point in the future (note: management actually did say on the recent Q4 call that they expect Pressure Pumping to be EBITDA positive in 2021, and are receiving increased bidding opportunities, while Sand pricing is increasing and Sand production is returning to full capacity, ). But for argument's sake, let's slap a goose egg on OFS. And yes, they indeed have been (for years now...) in a legal mess related to PREPA. Also widely known and should not be news to anyone who is even remotely paying attention. You don't need to read their 2020 10-K to figure that out...just look at the 4 year stock chart. The PREPA mess is the reason why the stock went from a high of around $40 in 2018 down to around $2 at the end of 2019 just before COVID. It's unlikely the PREPA legal debacle can get much worse from here. I'd say the stock not only priced in the downside, but has also moved on from fretting about this saga. So again, for argument's sake let's go ahead and value the recovery of their $227M outstanding account receivable from PREPA at zero for now, and tuck it away in our back pocket with the OFS biz as a free call option on a partial recovery of those funds. Indeed their 2nd largest shareholder and their largest OFS customers, Gulfport Energy (GPORQ), recently filed Ch. 11. Since we've already agreed to value the OFS biz at zero...and Gulfport is part of that business (and they took a $20M charge related to Gulfport in Q4), I suppose we don't have to worry much about the concentration risk and "complicated relationship" related to Gulfport as one of their top clients. Slap a goose egg on it. I don't care about this business. As for the shareholder class action lawsuits...any time a stock materially depreciates like TUSK's has, the news feed for said company is always littered with ambulance chasing lawyers announcing class action shareholder lawsuits trying to capitalize on the situation by claiming wrong doing by management. The fact that they have some of these lawsuits doesn't surprise me, and it doesn't do much for me. So why would anyone own the stock here? Answer: TUSK's Infrastructure Power business, Lion Power Services, which oversees four subsidiary companies: High Power Electrical, 5 Star Electric, Aqua Wolf, and Brim Aviation. This is where the future growth of the company exists, and they are already demonstrating it in their results, driven by the execution of a newly appointed management team. Lion Power Services is led by: 1. President Ed Will (formerly of Quanta Power Inc...subsidiary of Quanta Services, ticker: PWR...you may have heard of them?) 2. VP of Business Development Shawn Mangan (formerly of Primoris, ticker: PRIM...you may have heard of them?) 3. VP of Transmission Operations Tom Leech. >Since these three industry veterans joined TUSK to lead Lion Power in Q4'19 / Q1'20...the proof is in the numbers. After continuous declines, Revenue from this Infrastructure segment stabilized at a base of \~ $25M in Q4'19 and around the same \~ $25M for Q1'20, before growing to $30M in Q2, $44M in Q3 and $56M in Q4 (all during COVID mind you). As for EBITDA margins in this segment, they went from negative -36% in Q4'19 (when Ed Will first joined) and have recovered into the positive mid-teens (17% in Q3'20 and 13% in Q4'20) with management expecting this range to continue through 2021 (15% - 18% EBITDA margins for 2021). . This business is growing and their end markets, which are essential services (electricity transmission, keeping your lights and fridge on...stuff like that), have major secular tailwinds at their back: Aqua Wolf awarded the recent $40M engineering contract with a utility 2) Aqua Wolf team has grown from 18 engineers up to 26 engineers 3) our country has a dilapidated, aging and failing power grid that desperately needs repair, maintenance, and modernization 4) Emergency work related to xtreme weather trends and natural disasters that continue to increase (last year's wildfires in CA and the associated rolling blackouts, this year's deep freeze in TX and the associated rolling blackouts, more intense hurricane seasons every year and the associated power outages, etc etc) 5) the rollout of 5G telecom infrastructure and fiber nationwide 6) a White House on the cusp of announcing plans for a major infrastructure stimulus packageAlso...just for kicks...riddle me this Doc: If the future and outlook for TUSK was so precarious, why would these three seasoned professionals who worked for very reputable, secure, stable, well established companies like Quanta (PWR) and Primoris (PRIM) leave there to jump aboard what you deem a sinking ship at the end of 2019 (a time when all of their legal woes were already widely publicized and clearly reflected in the stock price)? I surmise either these gents believe the outlook for TUSK/Lion Power is promising...or they believe they can make the outlook for TUSK promising. That would be my guess, given that's what they are doing. Whaddya know? These guys joined in Q4'19/Jan'20, they get ramped up in Q1'20...and what do you a see in their financials? A sharp U-turn in both Revenue growth and EBITDA margins in the Infrastructure segment. I guesstimate (at the low end) that on the currently young and very promising trajectory that this Infrastructure business alone could generate around \~ $[300](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/300-USD) of Revenue in 2021 and \~ $60M of EBITDA, with high probability potential upside to that number. That's \~ 5.4x EV/EBITDA, without any contribution from the OFS side of TUSK's business. At \~ 5x Infrastructure EBITDA...TUSK is an incredibly cheap stock here. And mind you, this is with no value ascribed to OFS potentially recovering, PREPA funds potentially being partially recovered, and no expansion into Renewable Energy projects.
If you have a little patience and can wait it out. Check out this Hidden gem called East west Petroleum. Ewpmf w/ 10x maybe 100x potential? If you’re interested in an oil and gas play I may have a hidden gem for you. I’ve been following this stock for 11 years now and I believe that after an 11 year wait we are about to see this stock rise like a Phoenix. If you believe in the “ longer the base the higher the space” saying, this might be the stock for you. This stock has been basing for over 6 years now and things are starting to come together that seem to be creating the perfect storm for a huge rally. Currently trading between $.05-.07 share this stock once sat at $1.79 w/ no production, no drills in the ground, nothing but hope. Delays riddled this company along with a crashing oil price that decimated the share price and as oil prices sat at these low prices the share price never recovered. I’ve been hovering over this stock for 11 years just waiting for the right time to jump on it and I believe we are very close to something very big about to happen. Some pertinent background information on EW -the current market cap is around $5 million. As of the last financials (3rdQ) cash was at C$4,911,056 and investments in Advantage Lithium & Seaway (Sweet Earth) was C$599,200. I believe they will be selling off the Advantage lithium shares because Lithium has increased substantially since the end of the 3rd Q. We will need to see the 4th Q results in NZ, but the well was offline for awhile as they cleaned it up to increase production. Bottom-line revenues from that will most likely be down in 4th Q, but production should increase substantially going forward which means much greater future revenues. As for it's value it sits way north of US$1,900,000 which caused EW to cancel a previously negotiated deal as soon as they could. In my view, this well is probably worth north of US$3,000,000 for them to cancel a previously negotiated deal it would seem to signal that they believe the 1.9 USD price-tag was under valued and as such chose to keep it. Now, there are a multitude of different factors that seem relevant to an increase in the price per share of this stock and something I’ve identified as a chief indicator of future success that may be coming to fruition is the country of Romania and more specifically EW’s place within the country and what they are potentially sitting on. A quick bit of background to help give this more context is as follows; GAZPROM is the worlds leading gas producer and 32nd largest company in the entire world. A theory I have pertaining to Gazproms acquisition of smaller but already locally established companies was in order to allow them to explore new and under explored lands that surround places in which they have previously seen high potential furthering this Gazprom decided that they would purchase a majority stake in a company known as NIS which previously was state owned in Serbia. By purchasing this formerly state owned company Gazprom has gained access to previously unaccessible oil reserves. All of this comes back around and ties into EW because they are partnered already with NIS to develop and explore a million acres of land in Romania which again was something Gazprom had been unable to do due to political tensions. Why would Gazprom want to get into an area so badly thatthey would purchase controlling stake in a company rather than expanding their company into the region? Again your guess is as good as mine however with an existing business structure already set up and existing deals/permits and tenders as I connect my own dots here there seems to be many a factor but chief among them like anything else in the world is money. When taking a look into Romania (in which no revenue is accruing during the exploration phase.) I believe we will hear soon on the value of these leases, because there are ongoing discussions on the commercialization of EX-2, 3, 7 & 8. I'm expecting either a straight buyout or a revenue sharing arrangement to be announced soon. Basically, you get all the cash and investment for the current share price and all of Romania which has huge potential for FREE. I’ve attached a link to east west petroleum’s website discussing Romania in more detail, So you can draw your own conclusions from their reported information as well http://www.eastwestpetroleum.ca/projects/romania/ Again, you see East west petroleum has partnered w/ NIS, NIS is majority owned by Gazprom and here’s a bit on Gazprom; As the world’s leading gas producer, Gazprom accounts for 12 percent of the global gas output and 68 percent of domestic gas production. At present, the Company is actively implementing large-scale gas development projects in the Yamal Peninsula, the Arctic shelf, Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, as well as a number of hydrocarbon exploration and production projects abroad. See the attached links below this all goes back to WHY Gazprom would want to so badly get into an area in which they previously weren’t/ weren’t allowed to explore/ monetize https://www.gazprom.com/about/ https://www.nis.eu/en/company-information/ Here is an article PRE-COVID on NIS discussing plans in Romania https://www.energynomics.ro/en/7-wells-drilled-by-nis-petrol-in-8-years-of-activity-in-romania-interview-vanja-aleksic/ Remember the bit about EW and their being partnered with NIS, here’s a little more background on that specific partnership which lead me to dig deeper into Gazprom and their connection to both companies. East west petroleum has partnered w/ NIS to develop and explore 1 million acres in Romania. 1 million acres are being explored and drilled by NIS and this tiny company called East west petroleum gets 15% without having to put up any money until the wells are declared commercial. Keep in mind NIS will or has invested over $60 million on these 4 blocks (EX-2,3,7&8) as part of the agreement w/ East west petroleum. If you dig through NIS website you can find the following tender:: These will be under finished tenders: 21366 - Casing Well 1201; 21365 - Well Head X-mas Tree for Well 1201; 21319 - Blow out preventer Services Beba Sud 1000/3; 21313 - Transportation Service of Drilling / Workover rigs and other Equipment; 21314 - Crane Service OFS jobs Romania and finally Est of Gas Forcast Teremia North and Teremia South. This last piece of in is no longer available on the tender site. This info was part of the drilling tender of 8 wells for EX-7 & 8.This shows that they are active on East west’s portion of the million acres. East west petroleum and NIS were to have a meeting that was supposed to happen a couple of months ago where NIS was to talk about commercialization etc. I assume that before too long we will hear results. What I do know is that those 8 wells cannot be drilled until a decision is made about commercialization and there is no reason to go forth with a tender with so much detail, if you don't plan to drill. There was an article I read about ten years ago that discussed the potential of the blocks in Romania where the author discussed that there was a sea of oil/ gas worth billions. I have no idea if that’s true or not but if there is anything close to that I’m betting NIS will find it. Let’s say conservatively they do find a billion dollars worth, East West’s 15% would be worth $150 million which is 30 x the current share price. East west petroleum also has producing wells in New Zealand which were almost sold for peanuts by old management. New Management took over East west and put that to a halt. Keeping assets in New Zealand that are worth a whole lot more today than the peanuts old management tried to get. http://www.eastwestpetroleum.ca/projects/new-zealand/ You start adding up all the cash in the bank, investments in the green, production in New Zealand, 1 million acres in Romania w/ huge upside potential, new management, the world coming back to market w/ the vaccines hitting across the world, energy/oil/gas all moving up and this tiny company is only valued at $5 million which they have in cash and investments? I have no idea how the price can stay this low for much longer. Seems like a no brainer to me. So where could price go? Where do I think potential sits at?In my opinion is it’s worth a whole lot more than $.07 , my conservative guess is $.70 - 1.40 which is 10-20 times the current price, but Romania could be worth so much more long term. I’ve seen lesser oil companies hit $6-$7-$8 with a 1/4 of the potential Romania has so your guess is as good as mine. However, after all of these facts coming into play especially even more recently with added movement and drilling it seems to be setting up for commercialization of their (EW and NIS) property which once announced I would expect to drive the stock price higher than its current level. Again as I said these are just factors that I have been watching as this is a company that I have had interest in for quite some time if reading, please feel free to research and see if your research brings you to the same conclusions. P.S. I am not a writer or a financial adviser. I’ve tried to be as accurate with my information as possible but please dyodd before buying as it’s possible I made mistakes. My opinions in the article are my own opinions and nothing more. I personally do like the stock and wanted to share the potential before any big news hits the wire. I would not bet the farm as this is a penny stock and like any stock is risky. This is not advice to buy or sell, rather just information for your own consumption as a free thinking individual Full disclosure - I own shares of EW and will buy more.