Reddit Posts
I actually did it (lost 10k. I make 21k/yr)
Options in play!!! Tomorrow will be LIT
This is absolutely zero risk: Massive theta gang bet on PACW
$115k PACW Earnings Play - Ready to Get My Cheeks Spread AH Tomorrow 🍑📉
Thought on regional bank plays with earnings out? - I think they look good. Looking at WAL Preferred Stock as 66% upside and 7% divident
Why do the Marketwatch pages of regional bank stocks like WAL have a list of negative headlines the day after an 8% gain?
How do I decide between initating a new position vs adding to an existing one?
Looking for help on when to initiate a new position vs DCA an existing one?
Fed pauses, what’s the trade you’re thinking about?
PACW 43% gains in 3 weeks on shares - $23k profit realized
Fellow degenerates, I made it on WSJ. That is I they quote.
PACW tonight's sale of real estate lending arm
Feetr Data Dump: SQL PACW BIOC OMH AUVI CWBR OCEA
Any thoughts on bets on regional banks/other banks given all the turmoil?
The Burry Bank Chart Updated for Q1 results and recent PACW / WAL disclosures
Regional Bank Troubles, Streaming Wars, Writers' Walk Out. Suggestions/discussions!
'Big Short' investor Burry bet on regional banks in first quarter
Swing trade ideas! Some are good, some are risky and some are degen!
Michael Burry Takes a loss on PACW and FRCB in 13F Q1 update
PACW: Screwed or Not? A look at the numbers with help from Security Analysis (1934) (tldr $3.7 lots of risk)
PACW to sell off some assets, late night info drop!
Can someone explain to me what the **** is going on with PACW and WAL?
🚀 PACW: The Unstoppable Short Squeeze Revolution Begins Now! 🚀
Feetr Data Dump: PACW IDEX SMX WAL MEGL TOP BLCM
Bank buyers expect sweeteners as US government sets new bar
Degeneracy, Regional Bank Puts and Casinos
PacWest Bancorp Announces Quarterly Dividends | Pacific Western Bank
Call me regarded, but I'm gonna buy some calls on $WAL and $PACW 🚀
PACW will squeeze this week with dividend approval
Psyops and Apples Earnings…. 5-4-23 SPY/ ES Futures and VIX Daily Market Analysis
Western Alliance Short Squeeze Incoming
DD doesn't have to be paragraphs. It's very simple EVERY bank that said "we're exploring a sale" went to zero, zero, zeeeero
WAL (Western Alliance) Bank stock is tanking? Why?
PacWest Bancorp | PACW ( 2023 crisis is much bigger than 2008)
risks of selling long-tail options in failing regional banks (e.g. PACW)?
Why are these regional banks announcing decent/optimistic earnings reports and failing days later?
PACW May 26 2023 5.00 P strategy in Fidelity (margin account)
Cramer strikes again! The only DD PACW bagholders ever needed
Mors Certa, Hora Incerta | Update to my Schwab and Met Bank DD with additional Pacwest and KRE flow
Advice for a complete beginner on what to do with my PACW and MCB puts.
Mors Certa, Hora Incerta | Update to my Schwab and Met Bank DD with additional Pacwest and KRE flow
Regional banks dropping hard in after-hours trading today after Bloomberg report that PacWest (PACW) executives are looking at a possible sale of the company. PACW down 58% and WAL down 29%. There's also a Time article today discussing possibility of domino effect among regional banks.
People holding puts on $PACW & $KEY
Holy shit, regional banks are getting crushed in AH!
Switched teams after taking a $21K hit on FRC, are my puts on PACW about to brrr?
MFW PACW and Regional Banks collapse within 2 hours after Powell Saying Banks are Stable
PACW Falls over 50 after reports of a potential sale, bringing banks stocks down
PacWest falls 40% after hours on report bank is weighing sale
PACW fails over 50% after reports of a potential sale
Why did investment institutions suddenly this morning, May 2, 2023, decide that today is the day to be worried about regional banks? Funny that just yesterday Yahoo Finance had headlines quoting Jamie Dimon saying all is well with regional banks and the problem is contained, and markets rose.
PACW will squeeze this week with dividend approval
What’s the consensus on other regional bank outcomes based on the demise of FRC?
Mentions
What ever happened to PACW? I saw it on my watchlist recently but ticker hasn’t updated since Nov29. It got taken down? Did the puts print or did the DTCC rule delisting as a copout?
Keep in mind Buffett started buying a lot of BAC in 2007 when the share price was getting wrecked cause of the banking fears at the time. Buffett has been involved in the financial sector for a long time and really understands the businesses. He meets/talks with people behind the scenes. If the banks ever get in trouble like they did in 2008 he is able to help bail them out like he did with both BAC and American Express. Most retail investors can’t do this in fact most retail investors don’t understand the banks at all. Those that say they do really do and only buy them cause they pay a decent dividend and that their considered “too big to fail”. This is why most should probably avoid banks to begin with. A good example is when that banking crisis in 2022 was going on. People were rushing to buy regional banks in particular FRC and PACW and those shareholders ended up getting wrecked. As the great Peter Lynch once said “only buy what you understand”. Warren Buffett understands banks and a majority of retail investors don’t understand banks. Therefore most people should avoid them period.
I did this during the banking crisis beacuse of FOMO and i bought put on PACW at the absolute lowest price and lost $900 with a simple market order. Don't ever use that button.
What happened with PACW ? -- it became "VALUE" ticker overnite
Are you modelling the forced redemption feature of the warrants @ $18 ($540 for ML post split)? Pure Black-Scholes will always give a value too high as it doesn't take that into account. I recommend either the Bloomberg capped American call model (if you have access) or failing that you can use something like an up & out barrier option model (I use the one [here](https://www.hoadley.net/options/calculators.htm) \- you want the barrier option calculator using trinomial lattice). Using an up and out call option with a barrier at $18, Strike of $11.50, underlying at $1.15, and a $6.50 knockout rebate I get 15 cents for the warrants. This is with 100% volatility, 2.8 years to expiry, and a 4.6% interest rate. The other consideration is whether 100% volatility is reasonable - current volatility might be at that level however, in general, the more valuable a company is, the lower volatility tends to be. It's easier for ML as a $100M market cap company to have SP double from $10 to $20 than it is for ML at $1B market cap to have SP double from $100 to $200. If you look at [this list](https://marketchameleon.com/volReports/VolatilityRankings) (which is basically every optionable stock) and sort by 1-year historical volatility you will see only a handful of companies with >$1B market cap and >100% HV. These are basically meme stocks (AMC, MARA, RIOT), a couple of companies coming back from the brink of collapse (OPEN, CVNA, PACW), and a speculative biotech (IBRX).
No wonder, why my AI model tells me to buy oil related stocks and for some reason.... banks 🤔 C, ALLY, NWG, BCS, FFWM, HMST, and PACW. I guess that's where that oil money will be held for some time
Value>tech rest of year still. PBR and EC have kept me safely green this year. Got out of PACW before earnings but not MTB. Trimmed about everything else but MO and out of shorts. Tomorrow? Big chillin. Yuge.
PACW literally barely holding on
wait wtf happened to PACW / regionals?
Some of you think PACW missing on earnings is bullish and it shows
PACW: > This holding company for Pacific Western Bank is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.05 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a **year-over-year change of -95.1%**. > > Revenues are expected to be $213.95 million, **down 42.8%** from the year-ago quarter.
PACW? More like PAC-man gobbling up regional banks. Someone call the Fed before they eat California. 😬
You really trying to convince us to buy PACW? I'm trying to survive here ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
Great move. Also, Ol' Jimmy Boy Cramer has said to stay away from PACW. Bullish!
Anyone else look back at how this sub reacted during crisises and see how it turned out. I went back to March 2020, Dec 2022, and then the time of the banking crisis in 2023. It is interesing how much people were saying not to buy or how the stock discussion narrowed. To use the banking crisis/FUD from a couple months ago. Most of the discussion was around buying JPM, BAC, C, or WFC. Not many were talking about buying WAL at $8 or PACW at $3.
Got my whole $1 divided from the 100 PACW I grabbed when it crashed under $5 a share. Lol
Congratulations! I would have made a nice profit, except I took some bad advice from my father. I was just trying to catch a dead cat bounce, now I've been bag holding PACW since March.... And I'm soon to be owner of shares in a bank that spells it's name with a C. BANC I am not feeling confident lol. Again, congratulations, and thank you for listening.
You could get close if you were extremely lucky. If you would have put 3k into WAL when it collapsed, it'd be worth a almost 22k a few days later. Then if you sold, and played the volatility game with PACW for the next 2.5 months, you could have doubled that money at least twice. That was basically a one off though and you'd have to be insane to put that much money there when there was such a fear of banks collapsing
$PACW is alreaady BELOW the buyout price.
My smooth brain saw PACW but you got me hook
Little you know. Burry is long most of the time and does quite well. His short positions just get more attention. He bought PACW when nobody wanted to touch this stock and sold it for a big profit.
I made bank awhile back with PACW puts let’s do it again do it again I liked it I like it
The price of $PACW is trading at a small discount to 0.6569 times that of $BANC. 0.6569 is the number of shares of BANC each PACW shareholder gets. What I know now is that the probability of the deal falling apart is > than it was 2 weeks ago. Without an equity raise, the banks have more of a solvency issue. I know it’s circular logic but it also makes it self fulfilling. $FRC failed because the stock price drop fuelled the run. From a technical point of view, the shares shorted and the cost to short is much lower for both banks and the Implied Volatility is low - making the options cheap
Here are the key factors I’m looking at: 1. Adjusted EPS is Misleading: The EPS appears distorted by removing losses from selling their loan portfolio. 2. Loan Sale Required: They had to sell these loans to fix liquidity issues, making the adjustment seem unfair. 3. High-Yield Debt Sold: They sold their most profitable debt, shrinking their net interest margins. 4. Depositors Moving Away: With people leaving banks, they can't reduce rates on time deposits or savings accounts. 5. Wholesale CDs Concern: Relying on wholesale CDs for financing is risky and not favored by regulators. These deposits are not even slightly sticky and will flee at the first sign of trouble. They won't see profits again until interest rates decrease substantially. Most importantly, It's unclear how many banks are depositing at PACW to keep it afloat, signaling possible hidden issues! Their deposits were down 10+% in the mid-May madness according to their filing, but only down 1% in the quarter ended June 30? How is that possible?
Though PACW already crashed
You mean BABA and JD? Id say he’d be sitting probably very close to his buy in prices on those. Longer term they might do well. As for some of his other positions. He did 70% gain with $PACW and 62% gain with $WAL. Pretty sure he did 25% on the first week he bought into $REAL.. I mean seems to be outperforming most regards ![img](emote|t5_2th52|8883)
Imagine if PACW and BANC didn't merge last week. Go look at PACW's 10Q and tell me the merger wasn't a functional bailout.
Thank you PACW for paying me a large enough dividend to afford a packet of ketchup
There were rumblings of the PACW merger for months. And it was widely understood that it’s valuation wasn’t priced in. I’m struggling to understand how this somehow took you by surprise. You literally stuck a gun to your financial head and pulled the trigger making calls on PACW at the final hour for crying out loud.
Oh noes. I bet against PACW after the jump up and won. Sold today: https://i.imgur.com/zxwIdzT.jpeg
One counter point - is that PacW was overvalued. I actually hold and am long, but I do think PACW has been over valued a few times in it's history. Nevertheless, your target is similar to mine. I like $30 but would start taking profits at $25 (if we ever get that action). What I will say is that a BANC and PACW merger may actually result in a bank that could actually be worth $50 a share. We will have to see. I am long on this one.
I lost 24k on PACW, panic sold, and the next day it pumped 90% 🤡🤡
I’m legit praying ENPH, DISNEY, & PACW do well Monday. Especially ENPH
I have calls on PACW, the strike is $15. Is it worth holding and letting the options convert to non standard options after merg with BANC?
PACW selling for .28 less than the coming acquisition price is about as close to guaranteed free money as you can get in the market, right? Not saying there's no risk
Just hit a 40 bagger on these $EOSE puts. And to think I had randomly set up that Iceberg Research twitter notification just because I fucking love short sellers so god damn much. Made back all the gains I left on the table (800%) by holding those PACW contracts into the close 2 days ago. Lesson: Degen harder. Double down. BET FUCKING MORE. LETS GOOOOO.
Why's PACW trading above the acquisition price?
Why has PACW been sitting ~10 cents above the acquisition price all day long?
I currently own PACW call options for 2025 and wanted to know if they would convert after the merger with BANC. If they do not convert, will they be rendered worthless? I’ve received some conflicting information, just want to make sure I have the right information.
Looking for help understanding options. I have a bunch of call options for PACW, most are in the month, some are out of the money but close to being in the money. PACW recently announced a merger with BANC. I'm not sure what will happen to my call options after the merger. Will they get converted into the new stock and I can keep them? Or do I need to sell/exercise them before the merger to prevent them from being cancelled/going worthless? Thanks
correct there's no buyout price. It's an all stock deal. The valuation of the deal at the time the article was written was $9.60/share based on the conversion It won't change that you get 0.6569 shares of BANC for every PACW share, that's fixed. The value of that transaction is fluid based on the share prices of both stocks, however.
9.60 is definitely a premium to the 7.69 closing price noted in the article. The price pumped AH due to the details of the deal being released PACW is currently sitting slightly above the estimated buyout price, trading at \~9.85
So my PACW 8.5p CSP will just expire worthless. Great!
I was arguing yesterday that PACW selling itself was a huge win for credit markets and financial stability even though there was a sell-off. Good to see market is regaining its composure and seeing the obvious. KBWB is higher than pre-PACW news now.
PACW up 25% from merger news. 20% short float
Why is PACW trading below 9.60 when that’s the buyout price? Scared to touch it now after yesterday
Just playing the penny game on PACW as long as it stays under the buyout price It's not much, but it's honest work
Made good money selling PACW puts that got IV crushed. Rebought the RTX call I sold yesterday, might buy another as I don't see them staying at 85 for long. Wonder what JPow is going to say.
I got $15k on some small FRC long positions, swing trades all with timing that turned out as good as this. 160k with WAL buying at around the dip of the FT article, still holding the shares. 22k buying calls for WAL earnings. This 100k PACW puts. And maybe 5k more or so with some small swing trades on WAL and PACW over the last 3 months.
PACW pumping beyond buyout price ![img](emote|t5_2th52|31226)
💰💰💰Get new daily runners and watchlist in our app! #premarket #watchlist 07/26 $SIMO $AWIN $ABVC $PACW $WRNT $VICR $TLRY $AULT $XPEV $NLSP $PHUN https://preview.redd.it/hki95nvr9beb1.jpeg?width=576&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=40538df7da4d75b1cb2949ad11406ea6b7a040e6
So BANC and PACW both will fell this week, Puts on Both 08/28
so BANC has to crash maybe they will, idiots over payed for PACW
Feel like this jacked up prices on WAL and PACW are free money on Puts this week
yo the bounce back on PACW.
💰💰💰Get new daily runners and watchlist in our app! #premarket #watchlist 07/26 $SIMO - no news+big volume(+80%), $AWIN - no news+big volume (+62%) $PACW - soars over 30% on news of buyout deal (+31%), $WRNT - IPO (+24%) https://preview.redd.it/2xyrp9d2zaeb1.jpeg?width=576&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=41f03265e58fe390d3f38440b6f64b04187df6be
💰💰💰Get new daily runners and watchlist in our app! #premarket #watchlist 07/26 $SIMO - no news+big volume(+80%), $AWIN - no news+big volume (+62%) $PACW - soars over 30% on news of buyout deal (+31%), $WRNT - IPO (+24%) https://preview.redd.it/8b6sxtmkyaeb1.jpeg?width=576&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=be0d88ec6a4426f556e5206b4667e48db590f87d
PACW owners are waking up to a new, sunny world today.
PACW & SCHW Puts are on dock for this week at open today
Held my PACW puts into close because I’m a disgusting degenerate. Was literally up 700%. I’m literally not going to ever make it.
PACW Guh, insiders made a killing 💵
PACW won't be a ticker anymore, it's being combined under BANC, so the play would be on BANC to 30. BANC stock hardly moved yesterday on news (like 8% maybe) yet it's new assets unde r management with merger are like 2-3x.
Why PACW gapping up? Merger seems bad news??
This is the dumbest post I've seen in a while, and that's saying something here on WSB. PACW isn't bankrupt at all lol
The interesting part of this buyout is that PACW is actually the larger company. Including AH movement, they’re worth ~$1.2B while BANC is worth ~$900M. So it’s not really BANC that’s setting the price action, they’re just along for the ride until the share conversion happens. $PACW was at $30 earlier this year before all the banking instability fears emerged, and traded as high as $50 last year. If the market feels like this merger will stabilize PACW, it’s not unreasonable to think the stock could jump significantly. Not saying that it’s guaranteed to return to $30, but that’s what the potential upside could look like. Conversely, I personally don’t see much more downside here, as this merger will make them a significantly stronger company and they’re currently trading quite cheap.
I'm curious about the math, so here's some napkin work: Book Value/sh / # Shares =============== -PACW: $16.93* / 120.169M (~78.94M in combined company)/ -BANC: $16.67* / 58.03M -Equity: ~$12.30 /51.5M** -Combined: $3.635B w/ 188.46M outstanding sh -> ~$19.29/sh book value -PACW % ownership of equity = 78.94M/188.46M = ~42% -Implied share price, assuming price/book = 1.0: +PACW $12.33/sh before conversion +PACWN $8.10/sh after conversion (x0.6569) *Per today's updated prelim filing from the company ** Assuming warrants trade at $12.30/sh, which is reasonable as they should trade at a discount to the executable price Interested to see how tomorrow plays out and if I can actually math correctly.
If you combine the market caps of both companies and account for dilution and conversion of PACW shares, I think the book price for the whole ends up around $19.45/sh. If you assume it trades at around that level - which may be fair, that's around where WAL trades - then PACW is at a discount of ~$1.10/sh based on its ~58% of the merged whole. But there's probably going to be a ton of volume tomorrow as shorts exit their positions... interesting to see where the price ends up. Probably won't be a huge squeeze since the DTC ratio is low, but who even fucking knows anymore. Interesting to note, too, that PACW still lost another ~15% of deposits this quarter. Going to be interesting to see where deposit values are reported for the sector when FFEIC updates their data, and how many of these regionals dove into brokered deposit pools.
From skimming this thread, DISH, GOOG, RTX, PACW, & SNAP may be fun 0dtes![img](emote|t5_2th52|4275)![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271)
the big question for this is that two PE firms are getting 400mil of BANC stock, BANC mc at eod was 850mil or so so i mean that is extremely dilutive of BANC how accretive is PACW's book value with the extra liquidity that the PE firms are providing via loans ? That's the only question that really matters, if you think this is really accretive then this shit might double tm. I've honestly been pessimistic about regional banks the entire last 4 months and I remain bearish on all of them, this last earnings the sector beat expectations but what fucking changed ? All of the regionals I looked into had significantly higher funding costs. Some of them still had dwindling deposits. Deliquencies up...sure we are approaching "trend" or whatever for deliquencies but until there is an inflection, I see more downside in the sector. Good luck to all playing tm
how'd you know to buy PACW puts? seems random. not to mention BACW merger ah too
Interestingly PACW went all the way back up almost in AH.
Per the buyout agreement, each PACW share will be converted to 0.6569 shares of BANC, so unless BANC goes up much more from here, that is only about a $0.30 increase to PACW shares. I don't really see much upside?
the conversion is .6569 shares of BANC for every one share of PACW giving it a value of $10.4 at the current price, so I don’t think it will go up anymore and I won’t be buying but who knows it will probably moon because I’m not buying it
Ngl I was really burned by FRC, bought into it before all the hype here. Looking at these bank stocks really irk me but at the same time this news seems pretty promising, from what I understand it’s a 2/3 conversion for PacW stocks to BANC stock? Would be awesome to be in a position in the 6-7$ range, but it being at 10$, what room realistically does it have to actually moon? And to top it all off it’s still in very early stages and this shit could sideways with FOMC, whenever the Ghost of gay ber rears it’s head, or funny hehe haha moments with the deal. But, ofc it’s WSB, I’m inversing my guts and buying PACW.
Did you really drop 50k on PACW puts? Damn
Yup, only time will tell on this one . I have been holding PACW since March, I'm just relieved that they are not going under like everyone said they were. I was not at all expecting news of a merger, it is completely unexpected. I wish you all the best of luck with your investment!
Wasn't acquired, it's a merger. PACW into BANC major, and banc ca, NA into pacific western subsidiary. All under stock banner of BANC
I wonder what the new stock symbol will be? Welp, I was just trying to make some money off a dead cat bounce back in March, and it looks like I'm going to end up holding PACW for the rest of the year if not longer. Thank you for taking the time to break this down for me, I really appreciate it.
I will become a proud and unexpected owner of shares of BANC, apparently. Bought PACW with stock today.
Only if BANC moons. It’s value per share is now 0.6569 the value of a BANC share so it’ll trade closely to that value until merger is completed. If it fails to go through instead PACW will probably crater again
Anyone know how to trade on this $PACW Merger tomorrow?![gif](emote|free_emotes_pack|scream)
Wells Fargo dropped coverage of PACW and BANC this morning, people might’ve speculated on that. Plus they were both due to release earnings so people could’ve just been trying to play that thinking they’d shit the bed and got lucky as well.
Anyone know how to trade this $PACW merger tomorrow?![img](emote|t5_2th52|18632) https://preview.redd.it/jfozbr9sg7eb1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ff039dd1e69b8030e9d7e44c1a88a95023b76b1
Anyone know how to trade on this $PACW tomorrow? https://preview.redd.it/39k5zkmfg7eb1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e8ca297fd185eda1048ee095c4f172f246e7e7e5
I’d sell them quick myself. It’s more or less pinned close to the share value of 0.6569 BANC. So unless BANC goes up before then PACW won’t go up either.
Does anyone have insight on how to play some PACW calls I purchased at close for a total gamble. Bought 25 12.5 calls in a hope something like this maybe started to form… they expire Friday at close
lol i went to see oppenheimer. i come back, all futures gains are gone and some how despite that PACW fully recovered. what a doozy. movie was fantastic btw.
Banc of California (BANC) the holding company is purchasing PACW (holdCo) but then is going to consolidate Banc of California, NA into Pacific Western Bank is how the deal is structured.
These people made a small gain on a PACW short a few weeks ago but do not understand banking. For all of us that had the backbone to stand against the hysterical mob, congrats! Always knew the trade would work but I will say I'm going go miss the 17% yield I had on the PACWP. WAL @ $9 still is long profits tho ;)
This is a bot right? One second "I won't touch PACW with a ten foot pole", the next it's a "solid investment". Human or Bot?
PACW was wild today. Held on for dear life, and looks to be recovered.
It’s not based on close price today Also until the merger is complete and PACW stops trading you can short them.
if PACW shares convert to BANC based on close price today how am i still able to short PACW AH?
I feel the pain. Almost got wracked by PACW. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4259)
I'm super curious too, but it was agreed unanimously even by the founder of PACW. I think I read the article right? I have never heard of the investors helping BANC buy PACW, but apparently they have some major capital. This seems like good management from my perspective, as mergers of smaller banks will be necessary if the regionals are to survive long term. That's what I heard Yellen say a while back in March at least. I'm going to be honest, I was just gambling on a banking crisis when I bought pacw common shares. Now I'm excited to see what happens with the combination of the executives from each bank! I hope you are having excellent day.
Most welcome! Believe the deal is still to be finalized. I am quite curious about how a smaller bank (BANC) ended up acquiring (though they call it a merger) a larger one (PACW). Does this reflect management's defeatism? Interestingly, for PACW, there was an infinitesimal decrease in deposits, they beat the earnings estimate and according to Seeking Alpha, they have minimal commercial property exposure...then why did they call it a day if the share price upside was 2x over the next few years?