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That's because you get a benefit from watching a really good show or playing a really good game. What benefit do you get from social media? Does a TV show feed you misinformation? Does a video game steal your data and sell it to advertisers? Do either of them alter themselves as you watch/play them to get you more and more hooked over time? Plus, TV networks, movie producers, game developers, and console/PC manufacturers are subject to government regulations and inspections to make sure the product they are selling to consumers are safe. Social media practically had no such regulations, especially in the US. Directors who make shows or movies and game developers/publishers want to make a good product for us consumers whereas social media companies just want to exploit us for as much money as possible. That's the difference
RAM + storage stocks bubbling I need to sell my PC's ram ASAP, I'll be back when prices are lower!
Portfolio is up +25% YTD and my gaming rig is up like 200%, apparently I'm investing in the wrong shit and should have just been hoarding PC components.
For anyone not in the loop on Microsoft, they're going down because of that Instagram reel where Peter Griffin explains the allow update from other PC's settings to Stewie
and that is slowly becoming a non-issue. Even at home most passive charging barely adds any demand to the grid (at the minimum no more than a high end PC, at the most, no more than an old induction coil heater)
When investors want their money back, and PC funds sell to cover redemptions, their Marked to myth accounting becomes marked to market. And its marked down at a 30-50% loss. Latest round of redemption from Ares is another confirmed case that cockroaches are still plentiful. Add in surging interest rates and a fed that is stuck in the mud with inflation rising. Which started BEFORE the war and surging oil prices, the forward path for the economy and markets is getting worse by the day.
I don’t understand these issues that people have with windows. Do you guys watch so much porn that it downloads viruses and that’s why your PC has issues? I have zero.
Big PC is abandoning Windows in favor of Linux… part of reason why MSFT is struggling.
1) CMP — this one is straightforward The ticker CMP is still an active company: ➡️ Compass Minerals International, Inc. • It’s a real, currently traded stock (salt + fertilizer company).  • If your grandfather actually owned shares, they may still be valid today (possibly adjusted for splits, dividends, etc.) What likely happened since 1993: • Company may have: • Changed name (it did in 2003) • Done stock splits / restructures • Your certificate might still represent ownership—but it may need to be converted (“reissued”) into modern electronic shares 👉 This one is worth investigating further for sure. ⸻ 2) GRE PRB — this is the tricky one This is NOT a normal stock ticker anymore “PRB” usually refers to: ➡️ Series B preferred shares, not a company itself  Meaning: • “GRE PRB” was likely: • A preferred stock series issued by some company (maybe GRE = the issuer) • These often: • Pay fixed dividends • Get redeemed (bought back) by the company eventually ⚠️ Important: • Many PRB-type securities have been fully redeemed and no longer exist  • If that happened, your grandfather would have been owed: • Cash payout at redemption • (But if unclaimed, it may now sit as unclaimed property) ⸻ 3) PC Financial Network (why this complicates things) PC Financial Network was a brokerage that no longer exists. So your shares are likely now: • Held by a transfer agent, or • Escheated (sent) to the state as unclaimed property ⸻ What you should do next (this is the important part) Step 1 — Look closely at the certificates You need: • Full company name (not just ticker) • CUSIP number (very important) • Issue date 👉 The CUSIP is the key to tracking what happened after mergers / name changes. ⸻ Step 2 — Contact the transfer agent Most old stocks are managed by companies like: • ComputerShare • Equiniti Tell them: • You have a physical certificate • Provide CUSIP + company name They can: • Confirm if shares still exist • Reissue them electronically ⸻ Step 3 — Check unclaimed property (VERY important) If dividends or redemption money were never claimed: Search here: • National Association of Unclaimed Property Administrators (missingmoney.com) Also check your grandfather’s state specifically. ⸻ Step 4 — Use a brokerage to help (optional but powerful) A broker like: • Fidelity Investments • Charles Schwab can: • Help you deposit physical certificates • Do the research / conversion ⸻ Bottom line • CMP: Likely still valid → worth real money if shares exist • GRE PRB: Likely a redeemed preferred stock → value may exist as unclaimed cash instead
My phone is Android, my PC is Fedora...
Copilot needs to work like Deckard's PC not a regarded Clippy
We are going to be so fucked when PE and PC defaults go up even more. I think that's when the actual circuit breaker happens, the war is just speeding it up
Okay, but let’s break this out over the Y axis. It will be years before we see a burst, realistically. We’re going to see private credit fail here soon in the next year or two as all their bad pre-COVID era loans finally catch up to them. The market will correct, everyone will go “oh it was PC’s fault”, and the AI stocks will right ship. Then we’ll see them begin to integrate themselves similar to the way the iPhone took the market by storm around the 2008 GFC - years after the dot com bubble burst. I don’t think we’ll see these valuations - but we’ll maybe hit 50% of them eventually. Your best bet is to unwind during the PC correction that is forthcoming, and then reposition for the long climb it’ll experience in the immediate aftermath.
I won’t belabor what many others have said more eloquently, PC is illiquid that’s why returns are better. Same goes for PE and any other private company investment.
MSFT's level of regard: copilot could be activated with the DEDICATED WINDOWS BUTTON in their DEDICATED EDGE BROWSER on every PC already controlled by their proprietary OPERATING SYSTEM and they somehow can't figure out the monopoly they have.
Private credit sounds squeezy lately. Just cause everyone is looking at Iran. Bloomberg just said something about yields hinting at fear about PC redemptions snowballing.
Yes, these are the risks you're signing up for by investing in PC. Still overblown.
Yeah I am an Apple fan (of the stock, I am Android/PC guy). I think the market is too harsh on Apple for not having AI features. The fact that they don't have a product because they can't make a product that is good and respects privacy is a huge red flag tk me about the rest of the industry. When AI expectations are reset (yes, I said when not if), Apple will be rewarded, assuming RAM prices don't make iPhones $2000.
Everyone knows that PC is an illiquid asset, what's new is that withdrawal requests are coming in at sufficient volume to make that inherent illiquidity matter. When an asset is everyone's darling liquidity doesn't matter as withdrawals are rare - everyone's parking their money and the few that need theirs back get 100%. When people get spooked and withdrawal requests cease to be unusual, liquidity obviously comes into focus. It's dangerous to dismiss these partial redemptions as a function of people not understanding the asset class. They may not, but the important point is simply that they're spooked. And that's not happened across the PC industry before.
Which is why PC is generally restricted to institutional investors
If I was a common sense high net worth investor…. Would I rather own a private credit fund with illiquidity that’s paying me a 9% taxable distribution or a high yield muni fund that’s paying me 5+% which kicks off a TEY at the same yield? And if you tell me PC is best suited in an IRA because it makes sense to have that yield tax deferred, why not just own equities, which historically outperform any and all credit?
This is why in cant build myself a new PC?
They’re related. Why do you think they pushed so hard to get into 401k’s? These PC/PE companies have zero liquidity.
This is way overblown as a systemic issue. Just makes for fun headlines. Ever wonder why there aren't any stories about the enormous amount of equity that would need to get wiped out before PC even takes a loss? Thomas? Vista? Hg?
Yes, BDC are evergreen funds. Have you seen their AUMs though? The big ones are shrinking, and some have to sell off loans at par to raise cash for redemptions. But don’t worry, they’re selling their worst performing loans and keeping the best ones in the fund for loyal LPs (I’m being sarcastic). Blackstone employees are also contributing cash to their largest PC fund to meet redemptions - to show confidence. Lemme tell you a little dirty secret - they’re not subscribing to fund units at NAV to rank pari passu with LPs. They’re lending to the funds (like the banks). Why? Cos lenders get first lien on the entire loan portfolio. So when the sh*t hits the ceiling fan, they’re the last to take losses and they will still get their 6-8% interest.
It's genuinely astounding people keep eating this shit up as if it's not just how this market is structured. There was an interview on TV on one of the big channels, they were speaking to Bloomberg's head of credit reporting. Freaking out about one of the publicly traded PC funds only paying out 5% of client AUM at redemption. He's like "Literally on page one of the prospectus it explains this and they actually aren't required to give you anything until a certain point. If you can't or won't read a prospectus then don't invest in alternative assets." And the interviewer just spoke over him towards the end and didn't acknowledge any of it.
These semi-liquid BDCs are just the tip of the iceberg cos they make up 15-20% of all funds. They have no choice but to gate withdrawals (as per their original agreements) but the pressure rises if the redemption requests keep rising. The really bad part comes when a lot of private credit funds that started in 2019-2022 will mature in 2026-2028. Given that we’re late in the credit cycle, a lot of private credit investors from those years will want their money back when the funds mature. Unfortunately, the private credit borrowers aren’t ready to pay off their debt yet and many will need to rollover or refinance. So a run on the private credit funds (starting with BDCs today and maturing funds over the next few years) will mean a lot of the borrowers will go into distress, further eroding confidence in private credit funds just as the maturity wall hits. The industry is built for rising AUMs in good times. When the PC industry AUMs shrink, that’s when we know who was swimming naked.
I'm with you, this won't even be close to contained. Private credit fund PE leveraged buyouts. PE grifter bros don't actually know how to run businesses so everything gets enshittified. Everyone realizes the firms PC lend to are dogshit and try to withdraw but get gated. Shitty PE companies are losing money and no longer have access to capital to fund losses or pay debt. Almost a third of Oregon's public pension fund is invested in garbage PE. It's going to be ugly once everything is marked to reality.
Imagine being the guy they accidentally add to the Insider Trading PC Small Group. Generational wealth.
The analyst needs to buy a new PC for his gooning station and hoping to decrease the price of RAM
“A computer cannot be held accountable. A computer must never make a business decision” - IBM PC manual
You're wrong, for a number of reasons: 1. Private credit loans are way less levered (and therefore risky) than RMBS. 2. Private credit loans, while perhaps somewhat exposed to "buying at the top" via multiple expansion, are ultimately loans against a cash generative business vs. RMBS loans which are backed by crappy, inflated housing that has no intrinsic economic value. 3. ABS is often pointed to as the bogeyman of '08 by people who don't know what they're talking about, but the real differentiating feature of the '08 crash was not ABS per se but rather the scale it was able to achieve through synthetic ABS. In order to amass such a hugely levered, highly-correlated pile of long bets on US housing, banks had to use credit default swaps to replace the supply of subprime MBS that they were running out of in \~2005 - this by the way is also why it touched the insurance sector, since their insurance contracts formed the basis of cash flows in a synthetic RMBS offering. In this way, the already under-estimated correlation between mortgage delinquencies in different parts of the country was compounded by a synthetics market that effectively created the appearance of more diversification while really just increasing levered exposure to the same correlated part of the real economy. 4. The mark-to-market mechanics which accelerated the unwinding of RMBS and synthetic RMBS in 2008 and made it so catastrophic to the highly levered institutions which held these assets at the time have no analogue today. The valuation dynamics of private equity are by and large much more decentralized and less conflicted than the practices observed in '08, in which large issuer banks acting in a conflicted capacity as both principal and agent while structuring synthetic RMBS would have free rein to participate on both sides of the trade and then set prices marks favorably for their own position. In short, there is a difference between pre-08 and post-08 when dodgy loans moved into the shadow banking sector...the difference is that if these loans blow up the carnage is largely constrained to PC funds and the LPs who invest in them.
If you're a retail investor that owns PC products, it's because you decided that you wanted more yield than what risk free products were able to offer. I have no sympathy for yield chasers, and neither should you.
Also true. I only have a good PC because of gaming, but it cost me $1500 (purchased back when that actually bought you something decent)
I still use a desktop PC for ‘big purchases’ lol
You make it seem like it all traces back to the same thing as 2008. It absolutely does not. 2008 was caused by a complete blow up in the subprime home mortgage market because people were overpaying for houses, getting easy credit (people buying 5 homes no down payments and bad credit history), and those same bad loans being securitized into high rated tranches and sold to banks (who also made the same loans on their balance sheets). Private credit makes loans to middle market companies, where a private equity firm has put in typically the same or more money as the PC firm and you have an established business worth hundreds of millions or billions of dollars. Those loans are being put in a portfolio that is capitalized with investor money and sometimes (not always) a bank leverage line, with leverage in the ~1x range. For the bank to take a hit to the loan, the following needs to happen: - collectively in the portfolio, the average loan needs to lose 50% of its value (assuming average ~1:1 debt / equity leverage) - all of the private equity capital is wiped out To put this in simplified math, assume 1:1 debt equity at the private credit fund level and assume a 50% LTV LBO (that’s high btw, usually closer to 40%). This company has a TEV of $400M; the company would need to lose MORE THAN 75% of its value until the bank leverage provider would lose money. And this would need to happen on average to every company within the portfolio of ~50-100 names. Have you seen any evidence of middle market companies losing 75% of their value recently in aggregate across the economy? I haven’t
My feed has been filled with content creators doomsaying and a couple telling people to calm down. I could be eating crow in a couple weeks but I'm grateful for panics like this as they allow audiences to filter out fear mongers vs reporters that give good analysis. Plain bagel did a great video on private credit this weekend and made a great point about PC being too small.
Why not short any of the PC firms like Apollo or Blue Owl?
Which part of private credit? People just read headlines and I’m not sure they understand the difference between PE sponsored lending and ABF lending. They are just lumping everything in together and saying ‘these are over leveraged companies’.. it’s a big world in PC and not everyone is lending in the same arena and not everyone is doing it with proper underwriting. I see plenty of ‘industry experts’ in PC spew a lot of misinformation. It all leads to more eyeballs on their articles. Hell even lev loan default rates moved down in 2025 but the media would have you believe differently. Not saying there won’t be issues because there’s always bad actors and we’ve been in a low default environment. More headlines to come but that doesn’t mean it’s Armageddon.
PC has an entirely different funding source compared to banks balance sheets.
This is very true. I'm in that industry and see the exact holdings of those pension (mostly state and municipal but also HF's and trusts). All of them have significant PC holdings that have built up over the last 5 years. Exposure in the 30% range (of the entire plan) is not uncommon. Most have skirted policy weightings by peppering the holdings across multiple asset classes to dilute it but it's still there. Those holdings have been marked way too high and the dam will burst soon. We'll see huge markdowns in those funds soon.
Bigger LBOs are syndicated through bank loans but PC offers better execution, customization, and plays downmarket from where banks typically lend. Generally if they can get bank leverage they will since it’s cheaper but now always available
[You can go listen to “Mark Baum” (his real name is Steve Eisman) give an update on PC/PE.](https://youtu.be/wKPYXqBCqfo?si=gK2FuEtEI6XIUAmD)
1. Bank loans to private credit funds come in the form of NAV loans or subscription lines. NAV loans are typically between 10-25%, with some exceptions. Even if private credit accounting overstates NAV by double, banks are still in the clear by a wide margin. Subscription lines are essentially investment grade, as they lend against LPs commitments. 2. Not sure where you’re getting the info for private credit in CLOs, but typically CLOs are buyers of broadly-syndicated loans. Like 95%+ of the time. The only time they buy private credit is in a BSL takeout (company can’t get a deal done in the BSL markets and flips to private credit) and since the loans are structurally similar, the CLO buyer may stay on for the refi. These “private credit” deals are adjacent to their BSL counterparts, typically just B3 and below credits that needed heavily structured loan docs, more niche/riskier borrowers, etc. The risk/reward is the same as BSL loans, and thus there is some (not a lot of) CLO buyers. 3. The “insurance companies have 20% exposure to private credit” is false, to my knowledge. Life insurance, long-term annuities and other long duration assets match well with illiquid investments like PC. Those insurers might have up to 20%. I’ve read closer to 15% but either way, they have a ton of exposure. The total global insurance exposure is likely in or around ~5%. If you’re including CLOs in your tabulation, don’t. They’re very different things. 4. Financial institutions are typically low beta, and the odds of failure are very low for the “fortress” BB balance sheets. If you want to make a bet directionally towards your thesis find publicly traded issuers that have outstanding private credit and short them. If your 2008-adjacent scenario occurs, they will not be able to refi and the equity will become worthless.
You’re wrong. 2008 — the magnitude of the crisis was many factors greater. Derivatives on the mortgage market were over $100 trillion+. Private credit is what $1.8T? I’m not saying the impact of a crash in PC wouldn’t be felt market wide, but it won’t trigger a global recession like 2008.
All good points about the macro, amplification points, and systemic connections (seriously, not enough people appreciate how much private credit money pension funds hold!) One point your post didn't dive into is that the major investment vehicle for a lot of these PC funds the last 5 years has been LLMs, data centers, and GenAI-adjacent companies. The economics of those looked unstable (at best) \*before\* the energy shock. Now? I honestly don't know how a lot people are continuing to invest in neoclouds and data centers with margins of negative bajillion when the cost of electricity is about to go parabolic.
The PC house of cards is funding the PE roll ups of everyday stuff we use. Go try finding shampoo on amazon or your shelf at target / walmart that isn't owned by PE.
LLMs are incredibly valuable, but also mostly fungible. They are commoditized and don't give a huge competitive advantage. Of course, the top-tier frontier models stand out, but they are only 6 months ahead of Chinese open source models you can run on a desktop PC. Except for Anthropic, they seem mostly to be in a race to giveaway as much capability away for as cheaply as possible, which is great for users, not so great for profit and loss. Google's advantage isn't their LLM. It's the fact that they are a platform that has billions of users. Android OS has 3.5B users. Chrome about the same. Google Search and YouTube are 2 largest search engines on earth, Gmail, Android OS, Google Maps, Google Drive, etc. And google ads are woven through every layer. Google also has a significant advantage in their custom TPUs giving them perhaps the lowest cost for compute. This allows them to subsidize a lot of tools that others need to charge for.
I've read hundreds of financial books studying financial bubbles and financial history as well as present day. For example, I'm currently reading 'Devil take the hindmost'. Your attitude is something I see a lot. It basically boils down to this: Do you believe Wall Street puts their interests above yours, or vice versa? In other words, do you trust but verify, or assume trust unless disproven? I trust but verify. With Private Equity, I often do not have the ability (as a non-institutional/non-UHNWI) to verify due to opaqueness. Also, I do not believe the average retail investor is capable or qualified to verify even if they get those disclosures. Therefore, I do not believe the average retail investor should be making these investments. These are not public market index funds where there are tons of people pouring over the details. It is entirely possible to invest in private equity that has massive conflicts of interest, or even criminality involved. You are not getting a diversified portfolio of all private equity. This is like asking retail investors to pick 10 concentrated ETFs that are recommended to them by their broker (likely the commission gets the highest recommendation - and is likely the worst for the client) and put their life savings into it. No sane person would recommend you invest in individual stocks in that fashion, yet somehow when it's private equity, we are just supposed to accept that risk? There is simply no reason to take on this risk for ever so slightly higher returns. It's not like we're talking about 2% returns in public markets and 20% returns in PE/PC, it's highly questionable if PE/PC even offers higher risk adjusted returns at all (remember that recent PE/PC is NOT the same as historical given the massive increase of the size of the industry that largely has not been recession-tested). I'm not saying that institutional investors, that have access to lots of disclosures and are very financially qualified, shouldn't be investing in private credit/equity, I'm saying this is not right for your grandma the retired teacher, or grandpa the retired carpenter.
SpaceX is actually a great example. There are tons of influencers who invested in SpaceX through intermediaries (so they would roll up funds from like 100 investors, and take a cut for themselves). Technically there's cap to the number of investors allowed on a non-public entity, so this is how they get around that. One particular influencer kind of talked about it a little and basically he knew nothing about SpaceX. Like, literally nothing that anyone else wouldn't already know from public information. I'm sure big investors were given more disclosures, but you'd be surprised what some of these private equity investors get away with. I think there's a general perception that private equity = an exclusive club, as opposed to public markets that are 'open to everyone, including the poors'. This unsaid reputation of course implies that this 'exclusive club' gets better returns than the general public is able to get, and the PE/PC industry is all too happy to play along. Private Equity due dilligence and disclosures vary WIDELY. On my Youtube channel, I covered the PC entities OBDC/OTF recently and basically they disclose virtually nothing about their loan book to the public, and these are publicly traded funds. On the flip side, I've heard some Private Equity deals basically provide the same financial statements as a public company. So it just really depends.
So much private equity is linked to private credit that it’s basically the same situation. Also, we’re about to see lots of forced IPOs because PE is losing liquidity and needs an off ramp. Musk has been playing a shell game with his private companies because PE and PC have been drying up and SpaceX going public is the only move he has left. He’s hyping it because he needs the IPO liquidity but don’t be fooled, there’s many many problems with the economic viability of SpaceX from a growth revenue perspective
>You hear how ChatGPT is burning $300+ in compute / power usage per $20 subscription? Their runway just got a lot shorter. Good. The sooner the first domino falls the sooner PC prices for regular users can correct back to reasonable levels.
The firm or contracted firm can still request the company’s books. Most firms like Merrill do not do any PE/PC positions with any entity not earning at least 100MM in revenue. Opaqueness refers to the requirement to publicly report earnings and data on a schedule and submit to an audit. A private company is not compelled or mandated to share its data with the public or anyone. But if they want investment dollars or credit, they will submit as much data as they can to help their case. Think of it like this: Banks make private credit loans to small businesses. Does a bank just give money to anyone who asks? Absolutely not. They do their due diligence by asking for tax records, revenue reports, payroll docs, accounting records, etc. The same thing happens when doing PE/PC. Are there bad apples and bad positions? Yes. Obviously. So you and/or your advisor need to ask the syndicating firm for their data, findings, and reports. In the case of the more recent Private Credit funds going down, fraud was found where they were double pledging assets. Obviously, the firm did not do their due diligence as that would have been seen immediately.
thanks that makes sense. but i have a follow up, why would PE only secure it through the PC , not banking etc?
Too late, forced Windows 10 updates was the straw that broke my back. Windows 8.1 to Linux Mint, and never looked back. Faithful MS customer since MSDOS. It's My Computer, not This PC. Big difference.
The users don't matter. What matters is whether the company leadership thinks it's a good idea. Which is why Windows 12 will be replaced by a copilot app that will run the PC for you.
Yeah but don't use EdgeStat - that's a ripoff!!! Use one that is completely free and hosted by you on your own PC like TradeTally or TradeNote. DO NOT PAY FOR THIS TYPE OF SOFTWARE!!!
is a trading PC a tax write off even if it's mostly used for gooning?
Calls on PRE PC ETBs
Like everyone that uses a PC?
disagree - the way their memory chips work is more efficient for AI. Can use ram in the way a PC would need a GPU to perform the same task, or something to that effect.
Wait til you want to buy a new PC 😇
Bols, if you fink your port is ending this year green, fink again. Private credit is the first domino. The next domino it crashes into? The top 1% of america. They hold the private credit as limited partners, they provided the money, and they expected reliable interest income: 8%, 10%, even 12% or more, annually. What do you think happens to their spending and investing habits when they price in the default risk with their private credit investments? **They become bears.** Limiting redemptions is the first sign of PC weakness. The second is debt restructuring, to try to salvage and prevent defaults. The third is the inevitable defaults, and the resulting bankruptcies. The 1% are the upper leg in our K-shaped economy. When they become bears they restrict spending and investment activity. When they restrict spending and investment activity, then that's it, it's over. We'll have our full-fledged recession at last.
Private credit redemption's freeze, no new liquidity -> Mark to market that debt Wealthy americans carry a lot of PC for their non-equity income -> they feel worried, less bullish, cut back spending Wealthy americans cutting spending -> the upper K of the K-shaped economy weakens, Weak upper K can't prop up economic growth anymore -> early signals of a recession brewing Early economic weakness and recession starts deteriorating many PE and PC company's cash flows -> PC news gets worse, starts missing debt payments from failing borrowers PC bankruptcies happen -> ruins the post-covid growth of most wealthy american's income Newly poor wealthy cuts all spending and investment, downward spiral that reinforces the upper K collapse -> the bottom falls out in everything else, stocks included Fed can't cut rates because of high inflation -> total economic destruction
I remember in 2011 being annoyed that I couldn't get my MBA with 8GB of RAM, it came out the next year. My personal PC at the time had 16GB. It took until 2025 for the macbook air to phase out 8gb of RAM, almost unprecedented length of time compared to how much memory would increase every year or so before 2010ish. That's 15 years of lackluster memory requirements/increases. We finally have surpassed that plateau and have a need for more memory on almost every product that uses any significant amounts of memory. Trying to equate what is happening now with what has happened the last 15 years is just identical, though everything dips/pulls back a bit eventually.
Going to be so funny, when people realize the demand for memory has increased 10 fold and is not going to slow down anytime soon. It was cyclical before because everyone only had PC's / Laptops / Phones, and every time Microsoft comes out with a new version of windows, all corporations have to upgrade to the latest once Microsoft stops supporting older versions. Now there is still that cyclical nature to their profits regarding retail / PC / phone sales... But you are adding ontop of all that AI data centers which will be cyclical but are still very early in the cycle. Which is also going to lead into robotics which will require a shitload of memory. Memory demand is going to be through the roof, sure this cycle might end in 2028-2030, but the base they pull back to by that point will still be much higher than it is now.
Welp, there goes my 1st PC building.
It's fascinating how underrated Linux still is in the PC segment, despite all the carnage caused by Microsoft and Apple
the only thing useful ive gotten out of AI is a script to keep my work PC from going into "away" mode so i can goon during work time guilt free
Does this mean the RAM in my PC is still outpacing the sp500?
Lol watching some woke talk show bullshit - they are trying so hard to be risque and edgy but still completely PC.... so boring.
Yeah, private credit getting rekt - and there is no way in hell that won’t fuck shit up on a massive level. Hell, even the CEO of Apollo - and they have like 30% of their portfolio *in direct* exposure to PC - came out and said something to the effect of "it’ll probably all need to be marked down”. Capital is fleeing private credit and those with exposure in droves. Even a Blackrock fund is freezing withdrawals. This “everyone’s leveraged to the tits” marked won’t be able to take that kind of contagion on the chin.
Shrinkflation is absolutely included in the inflation numbers. Also since shrinkflation is absolutely included in the inflation numbers shouldn't MoreFlation be? In highs school I got a job working for a call center and bought a gaming computer in like early 2000s for like 2k A couple years ago I bought another gaming computer for like 2k, so no inflation right? Well not really my computer I bought 2 years ago has 100x the processing power , ram, storage space then the PC I bought 20 years ago So same price , 100x more product , should we not account for that?
It’s definitely not frozen lol. People forgot most of PC is closed end funds by design - they prevent runs on liquidity (ie can’t have a bank run if investors can’t pull their money out all at once).
They are both part of the same pot. PC firms usually own or operate PE ventures or subsidiaries. blackstone is the perfect example of this.
Private credit usually extends loans to PE firms. When PE struggles with debt in means the PC has to start swallowing losses on their risky debt holdings. Even if somehow the issues are contained to credit; if PC firms start to fail or liquidate then PE firms will find it much much harder to access the loans to make their leveraged buyouts that the whole space is built on.
looking at charts- but I think my PC froze
📁 wallstreetbets L 📁 What are your moves thread L 📁 “can I have an award?” L ⚠️ Low Disk Space - You're running out of space on this PC. ⚠️
Not chatgpt. PC has feature That help with writing. Most people use such tools nowadays to make their posts look cleaner, but there's a real person behind the screen, not a machine 🤖. My question is genuine and I'm looking for a real answer.
You can't say "retards" (not PC) anymore....just tying to help, you know, since you dont read!!
You've just ordered Wendy's and loaded up a good PC game while browsing WSB. No school tomorrow. Your parents don't care if you stay up all night long. A perfect saturday evening. You are 40 years old.
I foolishly took a stack of $2 bills to Walmart to buy some memory for a PC build. This was a sequential stack of brand new bills ($200 worth). The poor guy who rung me up in the electronics section had never seen a $2 bill (he wasn't from around here, at all). First I had to convince him that they were real, he called a manager, had to count them twice. His technique for counting cash was, well, not efficient. It took like 30 minutes. I didn't really mind, but the people behind me in line were not entertained. I still have $400 in brand new, sequential $2's. If I do spend them, it won't be a Walmart!
Ah hem. Every time I see this comment I wonder why people comment on MSFT when they have NO IDEA how far they have moved past Office on the PC. They are in the catbird seat for enterprise computing.
wrong, mainly because turning on a PC is going to be so fucking expensive. we are heading back to the age of sticks and rocks. unless you are Chinese
PC lent to PE, where even the PE didn't know what was under the hood lol
I agree in part with your sentiment. I think that you should only invest the fun money that you're willing to lose into microcaps. Imo, it's straight gambling. There's several reasons for this.. But I'll just put one here that some people might not think about. If a company has a succesful product and is making money, why do they need to sell equity to raise capital? Why not bonds, PC, bank loan, or just good old fashioned waiting until you've saved up enough to expand? The reason is that usually these companies are not yet profitable (or barely so) and the executives see issuing equity an easy way to make some cash on or for their shit company. Most microcap stocks are going to stay stuck in the gutter because the companies just aren't on the path to greater success. If they were, the owners would have no interest in going public and losing out on their future gains. Now, what about micro-cap companies that need to raise capital in order to buy the setup/fund R&D before they can make money? Imo, this is definitely gambling and usually these companies go belly up or the stock just becomes next to worthless.
I think it’s going to hit r/financialcareer the hardest. All anyone asks is “how do I get into IB/PE/HF?” PC is one side of the coin (which is more like 35% of the coin) with PE as the other side. - It’ll probably blow up, - it’ll probably take down lot of PEs. - A third of r/financialcareer will get crushed - it probably won’t hit financial systems like GFC - it is levered but derivatives on top of that seems to be very limited - banks are less exposed to the PC…we hope…lack of disclosures is a problem So yea some sectors maybe feel like 07, but broader market probably not. They’re feeling pains from other areas like we’re probably already in a recession or something.
When the PC firms and banks are done playing hot potato.theres always a delay
Lil bros profile is all video games and PC parts. Tf you know about what makes a real life army, dumbass?
Maybe it’s not open at the moment, but they plan to reopen it. Not sure how accurate Reuters is, so who knows. Where/how do you look at the marine traffic? Do you need a PC to do it? I’d like to see it.
All that time playing minesweeper on the PC is going to come in handy…
Think about the Com bubble.. How many search engines... Yahoo, alter vista, ask jeeves (rip), MSN.... It all goes on.. How many remain.. Shit then go into the internet service providers.. How many remain.. Networking... How many remain.. PC oems... Etc etc etc.. Crap more recently phone OSs.. The enshitification of phone os.. The glory days was when we had compatition now you buy apples walled garden bullshit.. Or googles walled garden bullshit.. The battle is going to be which 2 make it.. Then its sad.. Cause it will be a walled garden bullshit of Ai enshitification.. When capitolism is replaced by corporatism.
The reaction isn't necessarily the bigger problem if the thesis of poor underwriting and potential fraud is accurate. If JP Morgan and Glendon Capital are to be trusted, then there does appear to be a systemic problem with PC firms over-valuing their outstanding loans and trying to hide their loses.
Not exactly - this big news is a crisis of confidence, a growing sentiment that PC firms may be systematically over-valuing their assets and obscuring a high default risk for many of their loans. See yesterday's Glendon Capital report on Blue Owl. Redemption limit triggers are just a symptom, the underlying illness might be quite bad.
Do the banks like JPM give money to private credit so that PC can make (more risky) loans and Investments on their behalf?
There is secondary markets to exit these funds. If the assets were performing well, it wouldn't be an issue to find a willing buyer. But nobody wants to touch PC right now. If it wasn't a big deal the secondary markets would see these discounts as a great opportunity.
Do you have any DD on this? I have been following your comments on PC