SF
Stifel Financial Corporation
Mentions (24Hr)
-25.00% Today
Reddit Posts
About SK and Samsung expansion
22, $120k in SF, maxing everything. How do I build wealth I can actually use in my 30s?
Do you guys ever ask your local homeless person or crackhead about stocks?(SF and NYC only)
Samsung raises foundry prices by up to 15% as AI demand fills its 4nm lines, report claims: Chinese customers accepting the largest hikes
Memory is the greatest opportunity in years
$NXST Nexstar being reported to FCC, FBI, AGs for violating civil rights under color of law as part of campaign to silence threat to merger
Opinion: the AI race is almost over. China is winning
Could someone please enlighten me?
$ARE Alexandria Real Estate is the best positioned REITs for the upcoming Biotech recovery
dead shoemaker (BIRD) +582% pivoting to AI GPUs. long post on why this is funnier than it looks and what it says about AI funding
Holographic/VR/AR Industry Development Weekly Report, Week 14
I'm not predicting a crisis. I'm identifying one that has already started.
I'm not predicting a crisis. I'm identifying one that has already started.
Google is about to replace Nvidia as the world's #1 value company
Google is about to replace Nvidia as the world's #1 value company
Top-Gainers towards the end of Pre-Market: Jan 22
Top-Gainers towards the end of Pre-Market: Jan 21
AI load growth is stressing the grid. Healthcare just opted out of the risk.
Top-Gainers towards the end of Pre-Market : January 13
Top-Gainers towards the end of Pre-Market
FPH - This dirt cheap California homebuilder is straight up undervalued AF
Holographic/VR/AR Industry Development Weekly Report
Is 165k in retirement enough to pump the brakes and move out? (29M)
19M $170K Networth & Asset Distribution (DETAILED) GTFIH
Does the threat of autonomous vehicles justify such a big discount on $UBER?
Michael Burry launches $379 annual subscription newsletter to lay out his AI bubble views after deregistering hedge fund
Commercial Real Estate Analysis (Office Focus) Working Draft
Small cap REIT DD - Mackenzie Realty Capital Inc. (Desperately Seeking Bagger Vance)
Tesla’s AI6 chip has been finalized using Samsung’s 2nm process
I hope some of you were in $HWH from my post, Shit blew up overnight.
Can Political Leaders Abuse Digital Currency for Personal Gain?
Can Political Leaders Abuse Digital Currency for Personal Gain?
College student in SF YOLOing $1,000. Please no trolls: I actually want to win
The Great Lay-Off'ening is already well underway. What will happen to the economy?
Senestech - Huge rodent pest management potential
A high IQ is a drag on your ability to pick winning stocks (I may be wrong)
A high IQ is a drag on your alpha but you just don’t know it.
Confused millennial looking for advice/recommendations on IRA investing.
How much risk tolerance do you have?
Tesla & Google heat up the Robotaxi race TSLA pops, GOOGL lags
$UP Lets fucking go up! NFA, looking tasty af. on SF Ai watchlist!
SqueezeFinder Artificial Intelligence Watchlist 19MAY2025
Minnesota House passes cannabis Policy agreement, sends it to governor
Federal Investigator is investigating Tesla's robotaxi plan
SF housing market is flashing red 🛑🛑
Sold all my Tesla shares before the crash. Here’s why I still think that was the right call (even at today's price)
On what time scale will Waymo's success affect Alphabet's earnings
07 comments by Janet Yellen as president of SF Fed right before the financial crash. Does this sound familiar?
American Battery Materials Acquires Substantial Mining Claims to Increase Domestic Production of Lithium
Bright Mountain Media, Inc’s Wholly Owned Subsidiary, Wild Sky Media, Announces Deal With Taboola.Com Ltd. (TBLA) A Global Leader In Powering Recommendations For The Open Web
SF Fed baseline forecast suggests that yoy shelter inflation will continue to slow through late 2024 and may even turn negative.
The Global Tin Market Supports Positive Price Outlook
The Global Tin Market Supports Positive Price Outlook
Let’s go Ccl to 35$ help me afford an SF tent
Paramount Group REIT (PGRE) Thoughts??? Work from home and high-interest rates effects
Best vehicle for shorting SF commercial real-estate?
SF police have arrested a fellow technology executive and associate of Bob Lee in connection with the April 4 stabbing of the CasApp founder
How to manage your 401k? I needed some diversification tips.
SF commercial real estate: Office vacancy 28% (CBRE). Rents have fallen 15% (JLL)
BlackStone's Woes and the upcoming CRE issues
SF Fed's Daly backs more tightening; too early to discuss March meeting specifics
Fed needs to tighten more as disinflation is far from certain, SF Fed's Daly says
What’s the better investment play: real estate or stock market
Looking for Tax accountant in SF BayArea or remote in US who has experience with options, LEAPS
It takes longer than you think, why the market won't bottom until Q1 2025
Stifel Financial Q4 earnings miss reflects wretched Institutional Group results (NYSE:SF)
Stifel Financial Q4 earnings miss reflects wretched Institutional Group results (NYSE:SF)
$100K of goods stolen from SF dispensary; video shows ‘professional criminals’ breaking in
Ferrari is celebrating 2023 with a NFT Giveaway of 900 NFTs with the release of the new Ferrari SF90 Model.
Looking for not-investment-advice for van-liver in SF and 200k a year tech job
Would you trade real estate derivatives if you could?
Unpopular Opinion: Owning your home not necessary a better financial decision than renting a similar property.
Paycom Software Calls $PAYC - NOV.1 Earnings Call
The Very Good Food Company (NASDAQ: VGFC) (TSXV: VERY) (FSE: OSI) To Present At Two Conferences
Just here to say that saw someone post about $BDSX and i’m glad he did.
Mentions
I’m in small tech in SF and same experience. Access to major models and often switching around. Hell, even using multiple model providers in a single day for different tasks.
Even if models didn’t get any better, my wild guess is we are under 15% productivity increased unlocked. And so many industries left to fight for. They are starting wet bio lab in SF. They have a lot of fuel to keep the bubble pressurizing.
Napping to sound of Ukrainian SF combat footage 😴
I think a guy with a $16 million dollar mansion in SF would know bro 💅
LOL this bih sold 1976 at $20/SF on the market now for $553/SF. $19.95 in 1976 $ is worth approximately $117 today.
Oh shit you are in SF right, I totally forgot lol
OP is a tech bro who was born in SF 20 years ago and interned at Meta this summer. Cut them some slack
Well I was just curious if you are also from SF. I'm somewhere around there in NorCal
u/music_is_gud is trying to invite himself over to my 16-million-dollar SF mansion sheesh
If your networth is under 15 million dollars you’re homeless in SF brokie.
Did you see the rate jumped again today? SF does not count in this discussion. It’s a outlier wasteland as far as housing is concerned
I can't sell that to board sorry. But give me... 4-5 kilos of cocaine, some retired SF lads, an empty ware house, a home Depot account, and a ballooned budged that would make Uday Hussein blush, and I'll get a 'hell yeah' on my budget request to the board.
Guess I'll go get my ass kicked in SF2 before bed
LOL. There's a 1920s house in my town listed at near $1M. 3 bed 1 bath just a hair over 1300 SF. Everything old af and needs to be torn TF out. Housing is beyond fukt.
Yeah but Cabo Verde has Vozinha he's easily worth 1 Trillion ( would rather give him my data than any SF dweeb AI CEO )
Not a joke, if you go to the Rivian bagholder sub the coping justifying the market cap of a global OEM is all around „dude its a nice car“, „I see them from time to time in SF, it is about to pop!“ These people can not be real. These people never thought a second about valuation or what is needed to build a global car brand. They have simply priced this company that has never built a car Like Porsche, Mercedes, BMW, Ferrari are now like: „Why is it going down???“.
Are you new to the SF rationalist/Effective Altruist world? If yes you should familiarize yourself with that whole thing. They are way more fucked up in the head than just high. They are doomsday cultists who believe in a literal god machine and believe it’s their role to bring it to life to save future generations — they actually believe, for real, that there is a high likelihood of destroying humanity by doing so, but that it is worth it. And guess who founded and invested in OpenAI and Anthropic? They all come from the EA and LessWrong circles. Those people are completely insane
Would you prefer I run the numbers for SF or NYC?
Anthropic will IPO next month, meaning a lots of new rich will have to get status symbol to show off their success to their SF roommates. Bullish on luxury stuff
People are kinda talking like the frontier labs have absolutely no incentive to increase token efficiency but the talk of the town in companies that use this stuff is that token costs per project are about to be more expensive than it would be to pay a mid level engineer to do the same work. When this number flips there's going to be some scaling back of AI usage at companies and increased hiring, putting pressure on the labs. I live in SF, this is already starting to happen at the bigger tech companies. Lots of surveys, lots of updates about restricted token allowances, education on which models to use when in order to cut token costs etc.
https://preview.redd.it/2hlqubfod5qh1.jpeg?width=3024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b5b317a00618b583babf2a8bfbd7aef02efcf965 SF today
LOL SF Bay Area, get off…that whole sector is gunna collapse.
I am a tarded gooner like everyone else, but commercial real estate is going to get ass-blasted with these rate hikes A bunch of the loans mature this year and need to be refinanced Those kinda empty office buildings and fancy apartments all over the SF Bay.....
***As a PSA*** *this is another free money alert. Take SF and lay the 10.5 against Miami. EOM*
Welcome to the bubble that is Silicon Valley. Go to SF / Cupertino / Mountain View and you will see.
It’s actually SF, not Wall Street, at least not yet.
They can chop compensation off, and reduce refreshers. Open office in india and hire there after promoting a few more indian execx (CTO of compute is already building an org back home). A 5% layoff based on “low performers” in SF will make the $50 be a 3 billion profit next year. And it will only keep going up
Watch as I write my own manifesto and give it to every suit-wearing person in downtown SF I can find, in the hope that I also can have access to billions of dollars in other people’s money.
Well you're going from a booming city that was slow to recover from the Pandemic, to a booming city as a result of the pandemic. It's like going from SF to Austin. SF is fucking booming, Austin slowing looking like a fraud.
So you want 5x your money without taking much risk? Well, you're in luck! Ive recently been in contract with the city of NY to build a bridge that connects Ny to Sf. If you are from here, you know travelling from SF to NY takes more than 24hours but once the bridge is done, it take less than 5 minutes! Listen, we been stalled because some big investors pussied out so we open up the pool to retail investors. With 1.8mil, i can make an exception and grant you 51% ownership, that means you can control everything, including the fees you charge. You'll 5x your money in probably a month. Insane, right? Dm me
If AI is mainly being trained in the SF Bay Area, it will most likely be gay super woke, right?
I'm in the same boat. SF and F only. I'm not wasting 6 hours to watch Zverev lose.
after halftime i full ported SF
I had to use AI to help me on Salesforce earlier today. But it wasn’t SF’s AI: it was CoPilot. And yesterday, I told ChatGPT to help me with weeds in the yard. It said “napalm or nah?”
We gonna gap down so fuckin hard. Jensen will be running all over SF screaming “Buy! Buy! Buy!”
There are good houses out there for $200k but the retards in here want to buy in SF or LA with homeless shitting in front of their homes lmfaoooo
>What I can't find much on is the middle. Every guide I read is optimizing for 65. I want to know how people build money they can actually spend at 32 or 38, whether that's a down payment, time off, or funding something of their own, without blowing up the long-term stuff. Just stick it in an index fund and accept that you pay a tax on it when you take it out. stop worrying too much about some tax on the PROFIT that you make. what exactly do you mean by meaningfully? because quite frankly the people that I think of when I hear this basically put their lives into work at the expense of their social or dating lives, often both. If you want it its not all that complicated, just save more and work more. But you are in SF, houses are grossly expensive, getting meaningfully ahead in your case means not doing any social activities since they cost money, no dating life, live in a van in your companies parking lot if they let you and try to find a 2nd job in your "free time".
Waymo has more working taxis deployed on one street in SF than Tesla has world wide.
went i first moved to SF, my income was 192k/year and my rent was the same as yours. how are you living in SF with (presumably) no roommates? it’s so expensive in the cityn
84k take-home in SF is like 40k in a normal city. Get out.

Starting new company call "Tugging Dick" with $500. Business plan = Then "invest" $100 to hire jacket man look alike actor to have lunch with me while I invest another $100 into a photographer and another $100 to pay ~~shills~~ influencers. Spend last $200 on lunch (not at Wendy's). The tech bros will cum all over themselves to offer me $3 trillion dollars for it when I announce I'm leaning into new SF hot tub style Ai sexbots.
brother....I AM TELLING YOU. You maybe aware but your ego isnt allowing you to accept facts. Go find a waymo engineer & ask the same question. I have friends in SF and even people in tesla, who ALL KNOW... Its literally $25-35k right now. Tarrifs are on the cars not sensors...and its not material. upto if you want to accept but even a simple google search would prove you wrong.
You need stock to buy a home. In SF, home ownership with 120k is basically impossible without equity
Most difficult part about trying to build savings in a short period of time living in SF is the high cost of living. Normal investing alone is not going to do it. Roommate? Live with family?
1100 SF apartment. I don't know why Mishawaka Utilities is so much cheaper than South Bend utilities, but it is.
Come back behind Wendy's after dark. I'll let you hold my joystick or I'll even hold yours for $10. For an extra $5 we can even pretend we're trillion dollar tech bros in a SF hot tub. I'll put water in the dumpster just LMK.
Regardless where you stand politically...Newsom is a piece of shit used car salesman. I was there when he was mayor of SF and when he was governor.
That was a long long post. Thanks for the DD. It is very intriguing, but I have some issues with it: 1. The ROIC can not be 35%. I see return on asset at 1.2% and return on equity at 2.9%. I assume ROIC should be in that range. Where do you get the 35%? 2. The EV/Ebita that I find is 16 and not 10. Maybe my reference is outdated? 10 seems a little too good to be true. 3. I'm looking at the OCF numbers that you posted, and the growth isn't that much. Do you expect it to accelerate? It would be interesting to see if/when they come to California how people in major cities react to them. Brunch is pretty big in LA, SD, SF; the market is huge in California, and can be a make or break moment for them.
Fresno isn’t it. Been to SF or SD?
Her husband, who is actually making the trades, is a SF portfolio manager who goes balls deep with calls in SF tech names. It's not hard and he's had his misses as well.
No it’s not, if you had totaled up their ARR, it should have been higher lifetime revenues. That directly indicates ARR was inflated. ARR is not a codified metric, it can be done a couple different ways. They have incentive to make it look 10-20% high than what it actually is, which is what the filing says. It’s also not illegal to inflate ARR for leaks meant for the press. VC’s in SF aren’t brilliant and unable to be fooled. Look at wework, andreeson with his web3 bs, etc. These guys can be tricked. I said revenues are real, but ARR isn’t their exact revenue. It’s leaks from a time period we’re not privy to.
UKMTO & SAS SF have galloopped into the chat with tea and crumpets and strawberries & clotted cream
let's just say I'm a SF Giants fan.
Sanest SF CEO thinking right here
nah, actually an SF fan, but my dad is a big Phillies' guy
*Because you are not an androgynous looking tech bro based in a SF hot tub. Are you?*
And turning SF back into an insufferable vest wearing bro fest. GF is from there, lived there from 2010 to 2015, and frequently drive up a few times every year. It was almost done burning off the tech filth that ballooned rent a decade ago and conceivably killed the city, just for the last two years for Silicon Valley to reappear like the tech troll that it is.
But many people want to live in SF/Manhattan, due to personal reasons. $100K is doable but I can see why many won’t feel comfortable living off that amount alone for 30 years or so
It's cuz the homeless of chi are just bums. In NY and SF they always got the story.
It’s so much fun to walk in SF until a homeless drug addict shows up smelling like shit and drugs
I understand why Europoors like walking 🚶♀️ so much with gas at those prices :kek: :kek: They even walk up hills ‘n’ shit, like imagine walking everywhere in SF
Wait till it comes out he was really showing his SF colors 🏳️🌈
*If the owner of the SF 49ers is still in Ohio looking for anoos I am available for* *~~$20 $50~~* *$100 an hour. Very discreet. No cameras. No for real.*
My flight from SF to Boston is about to take off though. 1 hour late as usual - thank you United
SF, you are fucked below a Mio. income from META or OpenAI.
Even shittier, unless you’re in entertainment and need the job opportunities I have no idea what people find in that city. Even Miami is somehow better and that’s a cesspool too. SF is great if you’re in tech and just overall a better city but NYC/Boston are for sure the best cities in America. Chicago is pretty good too. DC solid middle of the pack
That sounds horrid, but for some reason it reminded me of a place in SF that makes a delightful pie with thinly sliced roasted potatoes, whole roasted garlic and a basil pesto sauce
The instantly slow UIUX is what kills it for me. I don’t think the underlying functionality provided by SF CRM is THAT bad as other described, but it’s just too slow
goddammit I’m in, right after SF wins with a healthy dose of skepticism
Yeah and when I drive up the 5 between LA shithole and SF TechBro gangbang, I feel like I'm back in Ohio. Those folks would all happily leave CA if they could, even if it would make their lives objectively worse. Because they drink the right wing kool-aid straight from the tap.
everyone always think Cal is just 'LA shithole' and 'SF TechBro gangbang' when there's really a whole valley fully of farming there that no one thinks is part of cal
Moderna and its cancer vaccine actually has real world impact. SF based AI company with corny name working on agentic AI product #69420 with its 3 underpaid employees and founder giving motivational speeches on linkedin does not.
I’m in SF - it’s cloudy af
Sorry my bad. I consider SF northern Cali. But looking at the map, it looks like the middle. I was near SF, where I would expect products like this to thrive. But nada.
Yeah that makes sense. Think of it this way, in SF or LA perhaps even San Diego, you are more likely to find folks seeking that type of food. NorCal, where I'm from, can be anything from Napa up to Yreka. Most of CA north of Sacramento is rural, hunting land that doesn't really do the "meat alternative" thing. I can't find BYND in my local Safeway anymore or even the 2 targets we have. It's a shame.
wow, 30 to 1, and its only worth $11.63? I was in Northern CA a couple weeks ago looking for Beyond meat at Safeway and Target. Neither had it. You would think Target near SF would be the exact demographic for this.
Anyone in SF Bay Area wanna be friends? I like trading, bicycling, hiking, traveling, gaming/tech, and psychedelics
Had a really strange dream that I ran into Ella Langley at Anthropic’s office in SF. Weird
Well I have waymo multiple times in SF and LA. I only had 1 issue since it was a narrow street and there was human intervention needed. But other than that it has been really good experience so far. And the future of waymo is at scale is should get cheaper so it might get better. Currently it's maybe 10-15% more expensive.
[dis chick](https://www.reddit.com/r/interesting/comments/1vpvzqc/44sqft_apartment_in_ny_1200_a_month_shares_a/) pay $1200/month for a 44 SF "apartment" in NYC, shared bathroom wit 5 other ppl, no kitchen.
I've explained my strategy elsewhere. My personal income is around $750k. My household income is $1m. I'm almost the exact same age as you. 90% of my money basically goes into $VT. I buy VTI and VXUS but it's the same idea. 10% of my money I pick stocks that I hold and never sell. I include BTC in that, I bought two for $3k total in 2017. I work in tech so I've mostly invested in tech companies. I bought AMZN and GOOG in 2010 or 2011. I bought TSLA in 2017. I'm still holding those. I bought AMD in 2017. Most of these were $2-5k investments at the time. But most of my money is in a total world index fund. It's sitting at around $8m today. I have a $1m mortgage left on my $3m house in SF. You can look through my account history. I've been saying the same thing for years. You haven't mentioned investing *at all* until 1 month ago when you basically said you can't afford a Porsche, don't have much money, but are starting to invest and have lots of time because you're only 39. Like, that's great, good for you. But maybe take a seat on how smart you are about what the market will do in the future. You sound like an idiot.
No. Grocery stores have margins too. You must go to the source. Bring a cow into your SF home.
the average SF person does this and they're smarter on average
***Almost*** always ending up right is a strong statement and time frames matter a lot. Let's go through the list: 1. **1 million robotaxis on the road, by 2020 (prediction July 2019)**: Zero delivered, used to claim existing cars would appreciate as "autonomous assets." 2. **Level 5 autonomy, by end of 2020 (prediction July 2020)**: Called it "basically solved" while people were dying in Autopilot-related crashes. 3. **Feature-complete full self-driving, by end of 2019 (prediction early 2019)**: Became an annual repeated promise, customers kept paying for the package on the strength of it. 4. **Full self-driving capability, by end of 2017 (prediction October 2016)**: A court later ruled the underlying 2016 promise "false advertising." 5. **Manned Mars mission, 2026 (prediction December 2020)**: Even the far more modest fallback, an uncrewed mission, has since been abandoned too. 6. **Neuralink human trials, by 2020 (prediction 2019)**: A medical device promise, missed by four years, while bigger claims (curing paralysis) kept stacking on top. 7. **AGI, 2026 (prediction April 2024)**: Made right after his 2025 AGI prediction had already failed. 8. **Cross-country autonomous drive, LA to New York, by end of 2017 (prediction October 2016)**: Missed by 8 years, eventually done by an outside owner, not Tesla. 9. **Uncrewed Starship Mars mission, 2026 (prediction March 2025)**: Quietly shelved with a 5 to 7 year delay just months later. 10. **Hyperloop LA to SF in 30 minutes**: Never built, arguably never seriously intended as an engineering project. 11. **Commercial Neuralink deployment, 2026 (prediction November 2022)**: A Chinese competitor beat Neuralink to actual commercial approval this year. 12. **External Optimus sales, late 2026 (prediction July 2024)**: The 8th slipped Optimus deadline per one tracker. 13. **Full rapid reusability of Starship, end of 2026 (prediction January 2026)**: Partial delivery but not scaleable at all. Anyone else want to chime in here?
It is more complex than just downside protection. Sarting with [Sequence of returns risk](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sequence-risk.asp) When you are younger risk is seen in the context of long term returns. However, in retirement there is the risk of outright failure. Would your relative rather have a portfolio with a 30% chance of leaving his heirs very wealthy, a 40% chance of doing OK and a 30% chance of him living out his life in a Medicaid nursing home, or one where the odds were 5%, 85%, 10%? Your relative needs to come to grips with sequence risk, inflation risk, longevity risk and market risk. The whole package is a tough nut to crack, and William Sharpe [far more qualified than anyone posting here] famously called living off of a portfolio the "nastiest, hardest problem in finance". [Book suggestion 1](https://www.amazon.com/Living-Off-Your-Money-Retirement/dp/0997403403/ref=sr_1_1?crid=JJILC39CPH1D&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.19zhh2mfVa-U48apMLCduzGO1ShynFsxddJirtOyOBwTov2DMIA1V8jxeISrX6-K7F1HARPka6aUExvhAR1sgrru0545Q77wvbszoMM-HYIKHbijo0JxTe05bcUT4gQwQG27EMRbrW6D8I5Rs9F7trKOLYuyTmy2EoV3iBJTwBQNjQoSCALY9992AYVceNVmK73q_vNextlBWVUCKTrTelQk38KG8a__g7RVqMoJQP0.0OzFgbi5w_EG4CieRyrOuEXArwF9f57yA-4lXcyHKao&dib_tag=se&keywords=living+off+your+money&qid=1786443488&sprefix=living+off+your+money%2Caps%2C186&sr=8-1) [Book suggestion 2](https://www.amazon.com/How-Much-Spend-Retirement-Investment-Based/dp/1945640022/ref=sr_1_2?crid=39SMRZFWP59XZ&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.WnAYktPR8wBy3vQSVBSSDivs19AXBLVF5bTXRFvSOAftML6GbK8GD6g-SF55jEdK5xOkaQ3GXDqk8A6IVBFVE8v3ABAmDcCdJRb-MD7VRHNLShyrjDpEmhndgiY2dd6hTPdOD1BMlLsNGMu97VpL7CFlpL1mOIu75ceBGXhFagJQS_aqx_QJQXzBCiJjlUJId6J7MDKys5RPpIcoCHFT6rnSHEYuowJUsfvjyXzozsU.TK2CvXDK5g6I6EY3bibim1ut0e6mkkxt1cH-v0sx-5I&dib_tag=se&keywords=wade+pfau&qid=1786443523&sprefix=wade+pfau%2Caps%2C161&sr=8-2) [Book suggestion 3](https://www.amazon.com/Bond-Book-Third-Everything-Treasuries/dp/007166470X/ref=sr_1_1?crid=6SBJWSXN90BI&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.fVr-jhRGe64HwwsW88qnRecJmk0qviTx9CbxzbyKHaCubvWvM__TxbTCIp34gNzQY2rElfGodGu_szXGtfE5z0AJ3BD9GatBVuMuJYKTICrvBgLxkCc58w4D8vrnO3Wm1EsP9ereUTapoNSTVzXBLdA7UUT1gcp-H6HzLMq7HCfARsEk6M5nMr1ffVxJJy9UFmKCTYTxwYP7BBwl7vRjizzK64zkscsniBuWAcRVyn8.cULq_FMG0GCRKnFMtsVFayAo07mhkbZW08fAeaTnHfk&dib_tag=se&keywords=the+bond+book&qid=1786443618&sprefix=the+bond+book%2Caps%2C166&sr=8-1)
my man is writing this from OpenAI SF hq lol 2 things my fellow degenerate. 1. cost of token go down as time goes right now you use 1000 usd of claude code and pay only 20 bucks 2. open source is the key and China knows it Kimi and DeepSeek are seducing dev from around the world including America COIN CEO said it is easier to plug in Chinese AI and let it work on American soil than use these expensive tokens all the time. 3. Every other company is sticking the AI sticker alike dot com pet dot com is now new shoe company turned into compute company. 4. You only need a limited amount of compute as not all can pay for it and its darn expensive to run DC around the world specially with all the legislation being passed against them in DC and CAL.
man that was rough and soothing at the same time I was born in '02 so a baby in front of yall thanks for sharing my teacher worked for Ken Griffin back in dot come times and he lived in Cal SF and in 08 crisis he said they did'nt had neigbors for north of 8 years. AI bubble is bigger and badder than housing one. From PE to hedge funds to pensions funds to 401ks to SpaceX crap in your retirement accounts to debt by MAG7 to fear of DeepSeek destroying the MOAT of US tech lead in AI to Iran and oil prices and so much more 2026 feels like a graduatation course in one year. Stay safe yall.
Hey man, I’m basically you but 4 years in the future (SF and all). My only advice is to absolutely make sure you have a beefy emergency fund. I did not, and I had to actually move back in with my parents for like 6 months when I got laid off. Other than that l, Get US citizenship if you can in that 5 years. Marry into it if u gotta. It makes a crazy difference investment wise.
Ever since Spirit Airlines went out of business. My flights from SF Bay Area to LA has doubled or tripled and I don’t think it’s the war. Southwest unaffordable now too
This logic is extremely flawed. Few clarifications: 1) You mention Waymo gaining market share in SF, sure, but why are uber bookings in SF growing/accelerating? (The answer is self driving increases TAM) 2) Ok, now “if AI were to get 10x better”, yes that would be great for self driving companies, inclusive of the 20+ companies uber is partnered with? Are you suggesting every self driving player will try to build their own ride hailing network? If so, that is an insane assumption. That scenario strongly points towards a consolidated network 3) Where profit comes from - there is so much wrong here. But to simplify, you’re missing: a) how much of North America profit comes from mobility vs. delivery b) incorrectly extrapolating average booking $s with profit (id recommend thinking more through *why* booking amounts would be higher, think through things like cost of labor, insurance, etc) c) Uber’s advertising revenue is growing rapidly - this is one of the main catalysts for improving margins 4) Lastly, on AVs, I’d recommend imagining an extreme scenario, where an AV player takes 50% share in any market. That would mean: (a) there must be enough cars to match peak demand times such that wait times aren’t an issue AND (b) be profitable. You’ll quickly realize that (a) vs. (b) is a major issue, enough cars to match peak demand also means those cars will sidle idle most of the time as demand is variable. Hopefully it starts to click that a hybrid network is the most likely outcome here
Waymo didn’t actually pass Lyft in market share in SF. The “analyses” that said that excluded trips that Waymo couldn’t do like to and from the airport, and trips out of the geofence at the time.
The Ketamine Kid has channeled at least 5 great SF stories as if they are stuff he will do n the next decade. He is at gold medal level "this way to the egress."
Every time I visit Canada I just laugh because the entire country is freaking out about how expensive everything is while having similar minimum wages and median wages as Americans dollar amount wise but their groceries and restaurant meals are genuinely dirt cheap Vancouverites would kill themselves if they found out a Mcdonalds combo in Seattle or SF or LA costs like 17 dollars