SF

I-N00b-hi

It’s already doing mass layoffs for tech white collar but rent prices are going up in SF/Bay Area due to newly minted millionaires due to AI boom

architype

Was it the complexities of buying the land to get from LA to SF?

xTheatreTechie

Californian here, we've been trying to build one from SF to LA for like 20 years now. Its not even a far distance, and it's not even through hilly or mountainous area, I don't know how we've spent billions on this and nothing has happened.

surmoiFire

I am now in SF, where do I find a stripper with 5 houses and a condo? that like 10 mil already

KeyInstruction641

# Peter Thiel moves family to Argentina to flee high taxes — and potential nuclear war, AI meltdown: report Moving SF hot tub operations to Argentina with Sam.

Robert-Gon

Hey Galiano, has Boxabl considered pursuing opportunities in San Francisco with all the new housing laws and rezoning efforts pushing for rapid development? With RHNA requiring 82,000+ new units by 2031, SB 423 fast-tracking multifamily projects, AB 2011 allowing commercial-to-residential conversions, and the new Family Zoning Plan increasing density near transit, it seems like there could be a major opportunity for modular housing at scale. Has Boxabl looked into partnerships or bids tied to projects like Treasure Island, Pier 70, or other large SF developments?

Terrible-Deer1398

I think I saw a homeless bear on the streets of SF. He was muttering smth about “there’s no deal”, “it’s rigged”.

fun__friday

Didn’t Waymo have a similar outage like half a year ago during some SF storms?

Pretend-Ad-9504

If I’m thinking about this correctly, in this example, the property would be 650k and need to rent for 6000/month. Is this correct? Is this realistic? Who rents for 6k/month for any extended period of time outside of NYC and SF?

0621Hertz

That’s not exactly what the CEO of Ferrari said. He said we are never going to “force” a client to buy an electric car to buy a “desirable car”, like the 849 Testaroosa.” That’s a play on words and a typical thing a CEO of a luxury goods company would say for 2 reasons. 1. Ferrari never forces purchases or ever says on the record “you must buy X to receive Y.” But they do have a longstanding policy of rewarding their greatest clients. That being said, the big money Ferrari collectors will absolutely buy this car to be on Ferrari’s good terms, so they can be “rewarded” with the actual desirable cars in the future. They may take a $400,000 loss on owning this car, but they will gain a $4 million profit for being selected for a Ferrari SP4. 2. The 849 Testaroosa isn’t a “desirable” Ferrari. That car is the successor to the SF90. Besides the initial batch of 1,000 or so car, that is a “entry level” Ferrari that you can easily order from the factory with no prior ownership history. You will take a huge loss owning that car, much like the Luce. The “desirable” Ferraris is limited production units like the SF90XX, 296 Speciale, F80, SP3 etc.

betarhoalphadelta

I would pick the plane. I live in south Orange County CA. For work, there is ample reason to make trips to and from San Jose. Seems like an easy win for HSR, right? The proposed LA-SF HSR line is supposed to make a stop in San Jose! But... The devil's in the details. For me to take the Los Angeles -> San Jose route I'd need to start by hopping on a train in Irvine, to Los Angeles. It'll take me 10 minutes to drive to the Irvine station and I need to get there at least 10-15 minutes before the train leaves, so that's \~25 minutes. Irvine->LA is another \~50 minutes. From there I need to build in enough time to catch my train at Union Station. So build in another 20-30 minutes to deal with delays. The Los Angeles to San Francisco route, I've heard best case is a little under 3 hours. Let's just assume it's 2:15 from Los Angeles to San Jose which is an earlier stop. Now I need a rental car or an Uber, which I'll need whether it's air travel or HSR, so we'll assume that's a 15-20 minute process either way. So all in, I'm looking at a little over 4 hours, best case. Compare that to flying. It takes me about 30 minutes to drive to SNA and park. SNA is a quick airport, so I don't need to get there less than about 1:15 before my flight time including TSA (Precheck for me); I can cut it closer but rarely do. The flight is an hour. (I carry on so there's no baggage claim.) Add 20 minutes for Uber/rental. I'm maybe a little over 3 hours total. Generally from what I see, the HSR ticket will be equally expensive to flying, but slower and more of a hassle. Flying gives me the opportunity when I need to, to make same-day trips to and from the Bay Area. Leave in the morning, come back in the evening. Adding an hour+ to each direction of the trip makes that a little more difficult. HSR works if it leaves EXACTLY where you live and arrives EXACTLY where you want to be. But that's not all that common. Here in SoCal, we have 5 major airports (LAX/Burbank/LB/SNA/ONT). The Bay Area has 3 (SFO/SJC/OAK). And there are PLENTY of flights every day between all of them, far more flights than how many trains will run IMHO. Which means it's often easier to get to an airport in either region than it is to get to the HSR hubs, and the massive number of flights give more optionality on schedule. As mentioned, for me to get to the HSR hub (Union Station) I need to hop another train from Irvine to be there, adding an hour of transit time--basically the same amount of time my plane would be in the air, JUST to get to the HSR terminus. So yes, I would choose the plane.

B2BContinuum

i'm on the other side of the Country - in SF, so completely safe from any geys here

Illustrious-Low4128

My CEO (I work at a small sas company out of SF) is saying the cyber security aspect of his business is becoming so important now with AI that it’s his main priority makes me think it’s an even better play. Again it just sounds like too good of an idea.

peanutneedsexercise

Lol yeah If you go to expensive restaurants in SF they’re all booked out and you’d think the economy was roaring.

ajwill0

I work with these sorts of systems (inc salesforce), it’s incredibly difficult to move away from these services, when you weigh up the cost and time of moving (years and millions) you can spend that money and time elsewhere for greater benefit. And there’s no much reason to, what else are you going to use? The AI consumption model which everyone is shifting to will work too. Think of it from a contact centre perspective, $40k for salary, $2k a year for a seat on SF licensing. Now salesforce can get rid of an agent with AI (maybe 1 out of 3 conservatively), charge you $20k for AI tokens, they get significantly more revenue from you and you cut costs…

JChuk99

Buddy you’re delusional. If you live in SF, or LA, or Phoenix you can see that WE ALREADY HAVE L4 CARS. LOOK OUTSIDE WAYMO HAS HAD THIS LEVEL OF CAPABILITY FOR YEARS.

GuyFieriFrostedTips

I genuinely just want people to make money and think any real animosity between Bear and Bull is silly. But I used a harmless crack about Bears chowing down on some man meat like it was a San Francisco street fair (in much fewer words) and BOOM Reddit removed it instantly and accused me of hate! Well, I still love it here and see a 🌈 forming over that foggy SF air.

xbhaskarx

I remember the actual news articles in the SF Chronicle talking about how the stock market would never go down again when I lived there in 1999-2000…

KeyInstruction641

*Never trust a ghey bear. Sam over there in SF hot tubbing with Peter Thiel playing with pee-pees. Now he fukt Elon with it.*

unhappyreach_

SF was full of piss and poop and a buncha bums like now

BadSpyMain

I was seeing a lot of comments about the CTB on other posts and was curious myself. CAR’s CTB during its squeeze only peaked at 11% and that was post squeeze. I guess with the other mechanics in play (low SF, shares locked up for the most part, plans for buybacks) CTB doesn’t need to be ridiculously high to start the squeeze? The shares actually circulating in the market are probably low enough that if the price rises and buying pressure increases enough early shorts will scramble to cover which will cause the squeeze to start before CTB can catch up. From mid September 2025 to now, SI has increased from 35% to 59% while the price went from \~$24 to lows of \~9.50 during the Iran debacle. So 25% of shorts are currently at risk if the price rises past $25 on a thin float of shares, and the remaining 35% are at the risk of whatever price action results from that. https://preview.redd.it/v6yanauylp1h1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=41e9e67e2a5721dfe4a1028f366a405938472c3e

Spyerx

Reminds me of early 2000 i was working in tech in SF and get into a cab (you know the stinky POS kind you had to flag down!) and the driver starts chatting, not typical cabbie, younger, kinda SF hipster looking. His story is he quit job as engineer and day trades and drives cab for fun and to get the vibe for trading of whats going on in the city… you guys all know what a few months later.

alemorg

You are gaslighting on the breakeven rate. You brought it up. I checked it and gave you the SF Fed 70-90K estimate. You then cited a Fed paper. That paper describes population growth at its weakest since the Korean War with breakeven "substantially lower than at any point in the past 65 years." The rate collapsed because net immigration went negative and 55-plus workers are exiting. That is denominator shrinkage. You keep providing evidence for my argument and claiming it refutes me. You are also arguing against a recession prediction I never made. The post says U-3 at 4.3 percent is misleading. Temp help is down 21.4 percent. U-6 is 8.2 percent. Quits are below pre-pandemic levels. Savings are exhausted. You have conceded the denominator is shrinking, the consumer is under pressure, and that conventional indicators are breaking down. That is gaslighting again. On the yield curve: it inverted before every US recession since 1955 with zero false positives. A long lag is not a broken signal. On causation: the cascading layoff sequence (temps, part-timers, hiring freeze, layoffs) is standard labor economics, not correlation. On investment: coincident indicators looked great in late 2007. Capex signed today says nothing about the next six months. If your actual argument is that all conventional recession indicators are broken and no two recessions are the same, then you are conceding nobody can know anything and the data is meaningless. That is not analysis. I hope you get help man because you keep gaslighting me and deflecting. Clearly it’s clinical at this point and I worry you have a personality disorder. Narcissistic personality disorders can improve with therapy, wishing you the best!

alemorg

I don’t use ChatGPT, it’s hallucinates data on me. I pull data from the FRED API. Clearly you need some AI to even understand the post because you are wrong, it took me awhile to grab the data but here it is: Here it is, three paragraphs, all counters intact: The post already covers 25-54 participation at 83.8%, listed as a positive. 55+ participation is down from 38.5% to 37.1% over the past year. Overall LFPR down from 67.9% to 67.0%. Exits at the older end are offsetting prime age strength. On breakeven payrolls: growth collapsed from +398K/month in 2022 to +21K/month over the last twelve months. The SF Fed pegs breakeven at 70-90K. U-3 should be rising. It's not. That's denominator shrinkage: deportations, older workers exiting, discouraged workers. Exactly my post's argument. None of this cancels temp help at negative 21.4%, quits at 2.0%, or savings at 3.6%.

golf_234

Great point. in all of those, I have already trimmed off quite a bit( like INTC), even though my portfolio looks aggressive, I am sort of loss-averse, and very stingy about collecting gains or spotting weak orgs. I do definitely have a dollar limit in mind for any individual play that I have sort of kept to. Probably the weakness there being tax, i do need to rethink the portfolio from a tax perspective, this is all in Brokerage so starting to think about how I can improve it tax-wise. Around similar net worth, this account is still under $250k or so. Much larger amount in 401k and Roth which are both just in basic Fidelity mutual funds. none of it is really important to me for retirement but just more playing the game I suppose I am up in SF bay area so it has been easier to keep a pulse on tech health in general .

golf_234

Definitely a good point haha. it's definitely doubling and tripling down on all of that. I will probably ease up on that over time (with more dollar amount spilling into just VOO) I am up here in SF and just see the tech continuing to charge for forseeable future, but it could rise so much that a bubble is created or already here, hard to say. what style have you opted for in your investments?

zoomin1098

there's a company in ghey SF called Regard and LinkedIn says I'd be a Top Applicant.

sickmemes48

I don't think Ferrari is a good buy. They're over producing cars right now and values are dropping. SF90s are selling at a 50% loss on the 2nd hand market.

Jealous_Archer_4522

Imagine years from now you're tryna explain to your grandson that the CEO's of trillun dollar Ai companies got the idea ruin humanity during a billionaire pee-pee pull in a SF hot tub.

This_Salt7080

I didn’t say they didn’t exist, I just said i’ve never seen them in the wild. And SF is the one place they SHOULD be all over the place.

Longjumping-Speed511

You serious? I’ve taken tons of Waymos in Austin and SF. In SF you can call Waymos on the app

This_Salt7080

Uber will incorporate self driving cars before Waymo builds out a network that can rival uber… Guarantee you Uber isn’t going anywhere. Can you show me some numbers that back up the idea that Waymo is “eating Ubers lunch?” Because I travel all over the country pretty regularly and I use Uber at least 2-3 times a week; I have always wanted to try a Waymo but have never actually seen one without a driver. Not in NYC, not in SF, not in the midwest.

NoMilk2281

They announced a partnership with Hertz a couple weeks ago for their autonomous car fleet. I think Uber is going to start rolling out AV in SF later this year. A little late to the race, but hertz should be able to help them expand a lot faster than Waymo will be able to

g_bleezy

I’ve sold all of my SF based private companies’ equity grants over the past 11 years in secondary markets. There are a few ways you can structure this so that Anthropic won’t even be the wiser if a fund just wants the return after liquidity event. If the fund wants to pool the secondaries and exert control this Anthropic telling the investment class to fuck off. The employees unloading on secondaries should be well covered by the standard agreements - it basically states you’re making this transaction now and the shares might be worthless or even voided.

Positive_Wheel_7065

Agreed. However I am in a weird situation because my father in law is also our CPA and a partner at a large firm in SF. You dont know uncomfortable until you have gone through your taxes with your father in law, but I digress. When you sign up, you give your CPA authority to file paperwork on your behalf, without your review, so long as it does not violate their fiduciary responsibility. So they can set up your retirement accounts and file your taxes etc. Or in this case, create a 529 for my daughter and overfund it with his own money. Its not a violation of his fiduciary responsibility, lol. I only found out when I initiated a conversation with my wife about starting a 529 months after she was born.

ProbsNotManBearPig

\+phoenix Waymo only has 25%-30% in SF from every number I’ve seen on Google. And 5% or less in every other market I google. Those are kind of major facts you’re lying about. Waymo has closer to 0% total market share than 40% in the cities they’re active. Maybe 5% total weighted average across all of them.

CelebrationNo1242

Waymo is in SF LA Phoenix Austin Atlanta Miami Orlando Early access Nashville San Antonio Dallas Houston Massive markets

CelebrationNo1242

Uhhh mobility took a hit because they're competing against Waymo now. In places like SF waymo had already overtaken lyft and is 40% of the rideshare market Zoox is in live beta now too

the-samizdat

every thing you listed are just very short term gains. none of this is long term. come visit SF and use the ride share options, between Amazon, Google, tesla and the taxi, you will see how the uber and lyft are getting squeezed out of the market.

ConsistentRisk3451

Yeah the doom predictions about SF have been around forever but somehow it keeps bouncing back. My company still has most of our dev teams there because thats where you can actually find senior engineers who know what theyre doing The networking effect is real - everyone knows everyone and deals happen over coffee that would take months anywhere else

unurbane

Yup. Eventually the math will work itself out. Economists will be talking about these events for 50 years. It’s wild. Fundamentally if tech companies cut back 2%, their price will drop 10%. The local economies in cities like SF, NY and LA will see less demand as well, affecting housing prices, food costs, entertainment etc. It may or may not ‘crash’ outright but the decline is assured, barring a resolution to Iran (which could actually still happen, but it’s late atm).

raks1991

So Uber will be a platform for Waymo, Tesla and Zoox when self-driving cars take over? I doubt it. In SF, people already use the Waymo/Zoox app without any issues.

coloredzebra

Couple years top fucking late 🤣 I remember when folks in SF were throwing them into the ocean

iamtracefree

There are self driving cars. Visit SF, Phoenix, Austin, Miami, and a bunch more. With today's technology, I think betting against breakthroughs is a bad bet.

Medium_Beautiful_721

Just got a bag❄️ SF is so back 

ddrsdght

Going to launch an AI startup in SF that aims to tackle homelessness 🙏

Ov3r3mploy3dbot

Downtown SF is as busy as it’s been since the pandemic…. This thing has legs

Wenis_Aurelius

This is a HIGHLY HIGHLY speculative space with a ton of volatility, but Joby came out as the safest play for my money. They bought Blade, a helicopter company, so they already have vert ports lined up, they're already flying their final product around SF and NY, and the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program starts this summer and they're the only participant with a working product flying over major cities already. They already opened a vertport in Dubai and are opening more, they have a partnership with Uber...they're miles ahead of everyone right now. EVTL isn't mentioned here, but it came in 2nd for me. It's trailing Joby, but it's ahead of everyone mentioned. It's the UK Joby essentially. I put my money on Joby though only bc it's a participant of the eVTOL Integration Pilot Program and EVTL isn't, so they're getting a fast track that EVTL won't have access to in the largest consumer market in the world. Archer seems like a meme to me. Beta seems legit and they have working electric planes, but they seem behind on an actual EVTOL.

Beagle001

Fuck that. Did it. Lived in NY, LA, SF, ATX. I’m good at the edge of the world now.

Geddagod

It has more cores though than the Mediatek 9500 comparison (which is also better than the snapdragon 8 gen 5 in nT perf/watt at low power). Frankly I was surprised at how hard the node was getting glazed in that post, which I saw a bit earlier since I frequent the r/hardware sub often. I'll gladly eat my words predicting SF2 to be N3E level at best when Geekerwan releases his per-core perf/watt curve, if it impresses there too.

leasthoodinthehood

Sorry, 2600 not 2700, but it is SF2. The low wattage scores are what is really impressive. https://www.reddit.com/r/hardware/s/T8EFaEjNpw

Geddagod

>Samsung's exynos 2700 leaks from this week show performance per watt way above the snapdragon 8 gen 5 Leaks about perf/watt? Where? >so their newest 2mm fabs are probably really good, possibly better than tsmc's. SF2P, maybe. SF2, I doubt. Their "newest" Samsung 2nm is a minor improvement on their 3nm process, not a real node shrink.

ElectricOne55

Ya I feel like a loser because I'm not making 150k plus. I work in tech and even in my area anything above 60k is considered good. The only thing I can think of they work in expensive cities like NYC or SF, where 150k is considered low there.

TheINTL

Vancouver is expensive, while visiting from SF I was pretty shocked to see how much food and hotels were. For some reason I expected it to be quite a bit cheaper

rbraalih

Not even close. The Doors did not release SF Woman.

music_is_gud

LA > SF! Fight me

AMadWalrus

I mean it could be true if he lives in SF. In SF a single person is considered "low-income" at a $100k a year salary, so someone with a family at $200k actually wouldn't be able to afford a "decent middle class lifestyle" despite $200k being a good salary.

golf_234

My portfolio strongly resembles this. even in the bearish times I have done pretty well just by being in tune with what is going on around me and reading a lot. I am in SF bay area so it is also kind of easier to get a pulse on all the tech happenings but frankly anyone can also tune into that. Agree strongly with your post and have beaten the S&P by a very large margin, am aware that the time window is important there though too, longer term that can be hard to pull off, we are in a pretty optimistic bullish time. nonetheless, if you are sharp and cautious and on your game, think this is generally a wining path and you can sprint past the indexers. heck, you can even just look at what is in your indexes/mutual funds etc, and buy the individual picks that are charging hard to "emphasize" them.

stoweker

My brother in Christ, you said 18-25x P/FFO - that’s a 4-5.5% cap - literally nothing is trading in real estate that tight right now. Also sure $ARE is a specialized reit but it’s still fundamentally an office reit just with TI costs like 6x normal fit out. Does that create some stickiness, sure, but it also means your basis creep is out of fucking control if you need to relet. The lab vacancy outside of $ARE is what you should be benchmarking to, not just that $ARE has a lower vacancy rate - there is a fucking ton of unabsorbed space in their core markets that will continue to be a major drag until the VCs step up and turn on the spigot for funding drug development - that’s not on the horizon. So what’s left? Converting buildings back to Class A office and taking a huge L? Even the existing buildings you’re talking about selling - how are those things marked and who’s the bid for them? The only people buying office right now are taking down either super long term lease main+main new build towers or stuff that’s so cheap the land value is like, a negative. I don’t see how you can reasonably UW $ARE to better than a 15% vacancy rate, dropping your renewal assumptions to 50/50 and assuming that even in a renewal you’re coming out of pocket an astronomical amount of TI/SF to retain. I agree they own good buildings BUT the lab market is so saturated right now it’s going. To take years to recover to a normalized vacancy rate, cash drag on vacant buildings is insane, ROI isn’t super accretive on new leasing , and for the non-core office you mention they can unload for $2.9bn would be curious what that does for p/affo; my guess is that at a forward 6x it’s still dilutive to take away that cash flow give how beat cap rates are right now. If I’m going at a single REIT I’ll take MAA all day and just bank on reversion if sunbelt apartment market. My$0.02 from the institutional CRE PE side.

VuvuzelaSound

Thanks for your comment I appreciate the insight, some points I want to make is that it's not a pure office REIT in the traditional sense, its a laboratory REIT. Less affected by remote roles and it's distinguished from Office REITS in material metrics. For example in SF when remote roles decimated office leases, lab space maintained more than a 25% occupancy premium compared to overall office REITs, but office has since started to recover in SF. Companies absolutely need lab space, including non biotech companies that want to research advanced tech including robots. I also never said anywhere in my post that the cap rate would return to 4 anytime soon, in fact I explicitly stated that growth narrative may be stalled but there are other ways forward for the company. My main thesis is just that it is way oversold even for a non growth narrative. If they can sell 10% of their non core assets this year at $2.9 billion that places their market cap valuation back to $15 billion in terms of a more substantiated NAV, basically 2x of the current stock value. It's also certainly not an impossibility that cap rate will go down again, as well as possibly interest rates. Its incredibly hard to accurately predict macro conditions. Final point to make is the oversupply is definitely a big drag on the sentiment and price at the moment. But the occupancy rate for $ARE is quite strong relative to the overall market, they have 5-15% more occupancy in most regions over competitors and are still at 87% despite this being one of the most bearish moments of all time for lab/office REITs. Oversupply is bad but its made so much worse by the fact that the demand has been at a very low point, my bet is that the demand will recover sooner than expected, likely in the next year for biotech. And that they will also be able to pivot some buildings in both SF and SD to Advanced Technology use cases, which would require far less capex to build out and also return more NOI much faster. Also the trend seems to be tenants drifting towards cluster model rather than any random developed lab space. You are not wrong about the oversupply, here are bostons numbers since you brought them up as an example and they are also one of the most oversupplied places at the moment: **- Boston's Occupancy Rate for $ARE:** 88% **- Boston's Occupancy Rate for Lab Spaces in General:** 74% \- **Boston's $ARE oversupply:** \~ 1.68 million sqft **- Boston's total oversupply:** \~ 14.30 million sqft But here's some more concrete numbers to help illustrate some of the main points I want to make that leasing activity is not so doom and gloom: **- The top 10 biotech companies in the US** (Amgen, Gilead, Regeneron, Vertex, Moderna, etc) are likely sitting on an estimated cash reserve base of $70 billion. AI has a very good chance of actually accelerating new drug discovery and research, and create more demand for lab space and also increase VC investment in the field. \- Expected $10-15 Billion into biotech from VCs in 2026. Number looks like it will likely grow in the coming years. \- Historically every $1 million raised in venture for research results in approximately 224 sqft of leasing demand for 7-10 years \- $ARE needs about 1.83 million sqft in new leases to get back to overall 92% occupancy rate. \- 1,830,000 sqft / 224 = 8,169 aka $8.17 billion. But assuming $ARE can only capture around 35% of new leasing demand due to the fact there are other competitors then we do 8.17 billion . 0.35 = \~$23.34 billion in funding. This amount is roughly equivalent to a normal funding year for biotech from VC not including the massive cash reserves that big pharma is sitting on. Currently in the still recovering biotech bear market the number is lower (\~$10-15 billion projected in 2026 + unknown big pharma investments if I had to give an estimate it would be around $10 billion). I would be total funding in 2026 is around the $23 billion mark, and with any luck it will be much greater this year and in the coming years.

stoweker

Dude office REITs are not returning to 4 caps, ever. Not happening. Maybe at best total fwd value gets back to an 8 cap for the premier assets but suggesting this stuff ever is worth less than a 5 is just… fake. Also don’t forget that TI/LC isn’t roi accretive right now for most leases AND the tier 1 markets like Boston and San Diego and SF got so stupid fucking overbuilt that even Cambridge MA won’t absorb all of the oversupply in the next decade let alone the greater Boston oversupply in tge burbs where Alexandria owns a lot of this stuff. Think it’s valued just right right now. Don’t see the fundamentals improving in near term for office let alone way overbuilt supplied spec office.

patrickswayzemullet

Especially in the US when you have that stupid flat 30 year mortgage. What are we doing here? Do you really need an explanation? If you have $5M cash and want to retire, you could buy one home in SF for $1.5M outright. OK great. You very likely are doing fine with the interest from $3.5M. I concede. Or you could just buy two such homes for 2x500,000 downpayment, turn one to rental. You get cashflow. Or you just buy one for $500,000, so you still have $4,500,000, and just use the interest to live and pay off the cheap mortgage. Your market performance likely beats the mortgage rate. What if you have $50M, $500M, $5B, same principles. You can manage these cheap debts , buy multiple homes for investments or business workshops, and come out ahead. But I also concede, if i was in this situation I would be more inclined in paying cash knowing I would screw up the investment and DRIP. And that relief of having paid off your home is a big deal. Just economically, the richer you are the better off or the more well-placed your money will be by playing these cheap debts… when you are poor you arent thinking about these because thats your only option (mortgage). I hope you were kidding btw. This is super obvious.

Johnny_Menace

Spirit was elite from SF to LA or SD. $80 round trip! 1 hour flight. Now I’m stuck with Southwest charging $500 for the same flight.

Johnny_Menace

Southwest is already charging a huge premium after spirit left the SF Bay Area

NoProfessional4650

Just watched a documentary about Chinese people in Madrid. Ugh, Madrid looks so beautiful. My parents are in Madrid right now and my dad was telling me about how much more beautiful Madrid is than SF (we’re from the Bay Area). I was like bruh, that’s not hard to believe given SF is a piece of shit.

MurphMurp

The world's a little...fuzzier... now than 10 years ago. Luckily I got into defense 2-3 years ago as the writing was already on the wall there. Currently... * Defense * Drones (maybe self driving cars...I don't have an instinct on that one) * Energy - raw production * Energy - green (hard to pick who's going to win here - industry yes but individual players who tf knows) * Wellness * Privacy I think those will drive their own narratives over the next 5-10 years. You don't need to predict exactly when things will happen, just to be in the car and waiting before it starts. Obviously LLM/AI is going to have its own narrative as well, but if you aren't already in Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor, I don't know how much additional growth they will have. Competitors will catch up and get their piece of the pie so anyone adjacent will likely be green but not explosively so. Hard to say what else this will impact beyond big growth in energy demand. In the US at least I think the housing market will break sometime soon. It used to be unaffordable in SF, NY, DC, and a few other places - the best jobs drove concentration of people. But now it's everywhere, and appears to be driven by a lack of utilities to empty parcels (and therefore a raw lack of housing). That's going to break at some point and the US will get organized to build more housing. But a) I don't know if this is a 10 or 20 year horizon, b) the utilities who build out plumbing and electricity and roads to new land likely won't see big growth in it, and c) I don't know what else to invest in. If you have a better sense of when this dam will break and who will benefit from it, go for it.

zipponap

Your friend has already bought the SF bridge unbeknownst to you, so a trading course can't be that bad

Valkanaa

Waymo and Tesla are both in the bay area, but that isn't changing my behavior. When I need a ride share I need it *now* and there aren't anything like enough AV cabs for that to work outside of very specific areas like downtown SF

grackychan

Then Amex doesn't want them as a customer, they are targeting NYC/SF tech, AI, finance types, just like Bilt.

interstellara_

Bro is leaving his hometown for the first time and you recommend the vhcol SF. Well…

waterpup99

It sounds like the answer is no, they will not be able to keep their insane margins. That's the point with all of this SaaS destruction. Not that figma SF servicenow etc won't maintain the market leading product, it's that their margins will be eaten alive because a similar product can be created for a fraction of the price. Token coat will plummet in the coming years so if that's the biggest barrier rn it's a non issue long term.

cucci_mane1

Half a Million gone. That's a nice downpayment on a nice home in a NY / SF / LA.

unhappyreach_

24 is a little old for the twink scene in SF, but you can try

truthinessembargo

In 2007 the market went up AFTER months of home construction and price declines, oil shooting to the 80s, and the Bear Stearns and Lehman implosions. Only when counterparty risk was realized and the CDOs and MBSs dropped to 12c on the dollar, did the market drop. In other words, only when the ruling class was affected. The SF Fed just published a study that inflation is only now starting to show the Trump Tariff boost. Similarly, companies are front running oil shock prices. Think about that for a moment. Companies are buying inputs now because they anticipate rising prices later. How their C-suite can simultaneously do that, and think the P/E won’t be affected baffles me. Regardless, the full impact of the oil shock will likewise be delayed. Meanwhile, Iran can go 2mo without exporting ANY oil, although I don’t know on what assumptions that figure was predicated. For one, I think it’s safe to assume that the IRG doesn’t care about the average Iranian…. Trump (if you believe his tweets) is waiting for the Iranians to come to the negotiating table. But the Iranians see the costs piling up on Trump…. One estimate I saw stated that oil at ~$120-$130/barrel through Q2 guarantees a recession. Although futures are <$100/barrel actual oil delivery is ~$120 now. So the double-blockade need only go on another 2 and a half months — and that assumes that other economies, which are more oil sensitive, don’t plummet first and drag the US down, too. Recessions are contagious… For example, look at the Japanese which import ~90% of their energy. They already have suffered an inflation spike. More on this below. Regardless a macro decline won’t affect the stock market much until unemployment rises. When incomes fall, 401k hardship withdrawals (already increased) significantly climb, forcing sales of those index fund shares. I believe that happens -5.5-6% unemployment. When consumer defaults also damage the credit market I don’t know, but such an injury would compound the spreading fiasco in private credit (Blue Owl, Blacstone, Ares, etc —> life insurers, pension funds —> states and municipalities — muni bond risks). Back to Japan. For decades the Yen carry trade has propped up the US stock market. Further, the higher yields/climbing equity valuations in the US has made investing in the US more attractive to Japanese investors. To the tune of trillions of dollars. Now, Japan faces inflationary pressure from increased deficit spending and dollar denominated oil price hikes. And the Yen has been falling. So far the Japanese have sold US Treasuries to buy Yen, and now oil. Other countries have also been dumping Treasuries, for a variety of reasons, but we can add currency support and oil trades as motivations. Note a weaker dollar means buying oil is more expensive for the US. Also note that Bessent has been asking the Japanese to only sell Treasuries and not option #2 (see below). More on the Trump administration’s decision below. The BOJ could address a weak Yen and inflation by hiking interest rates. That option would make investing in Japan more valuable. Not only would the Yen carry trade unwind — see August 2024 for effects on the US stock market — but the non-carry reshoring of Japanese capital would drive equities and bonds lower. So when will the Japanese realize that their already sticky inflation will force a Volker decision on them? I don’t know, but not yet. Back to Trump/Bessent. Increasing oil prices hurt ordinary Americans > the billionaires. Increased BOJ interest rates hurt the 1% > ordinary Americans… Regarding the Fed put, I doubt the market believes that >1 interest rate cut is likely. A foreign appetite for US Treasuries would be required for any bailout. For the above reasons and because of Trump’s international tantrums, the government’s demonstrable incompetence at managing its debt, and the US electorate’s proven ignorance and foolishness (I’m American BTW), such an appetite is no where near 2008-2010 levels. However, markets can be irrational longer than you can remain solvent. The problem has always been timing. We don’t know when. But we do know it’ll take months to years before all the above will travel through the system.

Johnny_Menace

Southwest Airlines prices have gone berserk ever since Spirit left the SF Bay Area. Please come back Spirit

ddrsdght

VM how should we deal with the homeless in SF

Previous-Panda9382

The fact that he has 2M's and decided to run his fate on AMC shills me to the bone. You could have put that in $CAR and you'd be in SF crabbing with that other mfer LOL

AnalFelon

BRO, if you ‘re in SF let’s have awkward anal together. This sub would go craaaaazy. Do it for the internet upvotes!

opponentpumpkin

You live in SF. Thats like 38 bucks there.

ddrsdght

Stage a fake alien invasion in SF and lift all the homeless people into UFOs before dropping them into the Pacific Ocean

Pereise1

Currently in SF, seems the same as always 🤷🏽‍♂️

aprilmayjunejuly98

Hey highkey can I get a crab, also a fellow SF person betting too much on possibly the wrong things haha

Lost_Bank_1097

OP have you ever been outside of CA? it doesnt seem so. just saying that the quality of life in CA, specifically SF is way above anything you'd get in OK. yes SF is way more expensive but if you're already settled there, seems kinda wild to me to leave it (as someone that would love to move to SF but will never be able to afford it)

nyse25

This market gayer than the SF pride parade 😔

soareyousaying

SF Wendy's are definitely different

unhappyreach_

Mods are from SF and I should have known smh

ComingInSideways

Good luck and be safe. Wish I was in SF would have gone.

reflect-the-sun

Mate, as a fellow fisher I would be wary of eating anything from SF Bay. There's very limited research on crab meat quality, but I'd recommend donating blood regularly regardless to minimise your exposure to heavy metals, forever chemicals, etc. [https://oehha.ca.gov/sites/default/files/media/downloads/advisories/fishadvisorysfbayreport2023.pdf](https://oehha.ca.gov/sites/default/files/media/downloads/advisories/fishadvisorysfbayreport2023.pdf) DYOR

Aromatic_Shame_2350

Ahhh the SF bay, the crabs getting fat feasting on the fenny laced bodies, and nesting on used needles subsidized by the city.

Bayarea0

It's 9 a pound where I live in Oregon currently. I miss SF...

Resident-Banana-7883

I went to SF once and also caught crabs

PeachScary413

I mean yeah obviously 🤷 there is a huuuge skill arbitrage for companies to exploit here, unless you doing some super specialised SF shit then why wouldn't they just outsource your ass?

SeaBreakfast325

Robotaxis have already been taken over by Waymo. Tesla has fallen behind because the self drive system is seeing way too many errors on their runs in Austin. They were supposed to be in SF a year ago go when Waymo was rolling out theirs, but there have just been to many issues. 

Tylordz

Tell me you're an Asian SF techie without telling me you're an Asian SF techie.

samwehl

Ferrari SF90 just listed for sale in Delaware. License plate “SPXODTE” I just know you’re in here guy 🤣

No-Principle422

You support ice, you support a racist piece of s, congratulations, suffer filling your f tank. these lil racists illiterate kids can f themselves. I’m genz Latino in tech, see you around SF losers. Mama y papa are ashamed of you!

luquoo

Elon torpedoed Tesla's dominance by openly giving the finger to his core customer base. Rivian is well positioned to take that market share and anectdotally, I'm seeing a bunch of new rivians driving around the SF Bay area.  Definitely more Rivians than Cybertrucks, electric F-150s, etc.  With Rivian taking the luxury electric truck market, and that new company bezoz has a hand in that is trying to make cheap electric trucks, he's got a stake in both the high and low end of EV trucks.

imrickjamesbioch

This is a stupid post… Context matters! Pelosi was elected to congress in 1987 and been in congress longer than most of you been alive. More importantly her husband a venture capitalist and he district is smack dab in silicon valley and SF is the start up capital of the world. Im not saying she didn’t use her position in congress to help her (husband) investment decisions but they were rich in the 80’s and they certainly would have invested in tech stocks in the last 40 years and be worth the over a $100 mil regardless. As the most important tool in an investors tool box is time. Warren buffet worth $69 gazillion dollars cuz he’s held Coca-Cola, Axp, Apple, BofA, etc for 20-40 years.

USNRetColdIron

First caught it on one of the slide decks about being temporally until summer of 2026. At the time a couple of months ago did some digging and found the Mn. State Leg meeting notes the State was complaining that it wasn't fair that the gas was coming from 3 sides that were State forfeited property. And that they should get royalties on the gas owned by the State when Pulsar was making $11 million dollars a day. It was at that point I went from casually searching to doing serious research the $11 million dollars a day had my attention. Turns out that it potentially could be more like $500 million a year. Mn. formed a committee (but of course) to research it and come to a conclusion. In the meantime they issued temporal permits. The Mn. website shows: March 2026 update: * DNR, EQB, and MDH are writing draft rules for gas resource development projects * Notice of intent will be published in May 2026, with a public comment period to follow * [2025 legislation](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/bills/94/2025/0/SF/2530/?body=senate) was not enacted but the bill is still active during the current legislative session, which runs until May 2026 [https://gasproductionrules.mn.gov/](https://gasproductionrules.mn.gov/) So soon, very soon. Pretty sure that is why they hired Cliff Cain as the President at the beginning of the month. He has experience with Mn. and gas rights. Yesterday watching the Artemis 2 recovery a previous astronaut was talking about how important it is to establish a mining base on the moon. And the most important thing on it was He3, he claimed the moon was the only place it could be found. Wrong answer. But he was correct in how important He3 is. Deuterium-He3 fusion is probably 2 years out yet to be commercially available. And is a better answer to powering datacenters than space datacenters IMO. As we used to say in Navy Nuclear Power School nuclear engineering isn't rocket science, if it was then anyone could do it :-) Helion Energy is one such company working on D-He3 Fusion and currently worth $5.5 Billion. When they go public I plan on jumping all over it, on the private equity market they are current running \~$85 a share. But they need He3 which will drive the price of He3 up even more. Perfect timing. He3 is also used for cooling in quantum computing which is growing fast. I see no downside to investing in He3. Stock price is dropping lately and I expect the pullback to continue until final results are released. I'll keep buying and setting a low limit on my orders. Then again my market timing always sucks LOL so not going to set it too low otherwise it will go up on me. I'll keep buying monthly through the summer, in the end it is still dollar cost averaging. A smart man would likely wait until the final report is released and I'm sure many are, on the other hand a gambling man..... Best of luck to us both!

Advanced_Divide_4641

The issue here is you get trapped at a good job making an amazing salary while living in SF. When legal residents come, they compare it to where they are from. Let’s say the quality of life here increases 20%. The wage they are making could support them and with $200 they could feed a whole generation that isn’t in the US. Where they are from they have more time but less access to things depending on wage scales. So for someone born in western culture the quality of life is paycheck to paycheck. You stunt on having a new car or cool apartment. While door dashing and eating dog food cause you’re too busy at your overlord’s saas factory.