Reddit Posts
Thank you SCHW, DFS, TRV and SLB for reporting this week
Everything to watch and expect for the trading week ahead, including expectations and analysis around AAPL, TSLA, and RETAIL SALES data.
Everything I'm Watching going into the trading week, including expectations around TESLA, AAPL and SPX Call Resistance at 4800.
Invictus Energy ASX: IVZ OTCQB: IVCTF - On the verge of a major new hydrocarbon discovery?
Navigating the Turbulent Oil Market: Challenges with Diesel Prices, Shrinking Margins, and Evolving Trade Practices - The Case for DRIP
Navigating the Turbulent Oil Market: Challenges with Diesel Prices, Shrinking Margins, and Evolving Trade Practices - The Case for DRIP
Second time presenting DD on here! First time gave yall GFAI when it was around 8 before running to 22 (respective to reverse split prices) Might be wrong here but like last time just sharing and looking for any bear cases before doubling down lol
2023-02-16 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
Hedged long call to spread that has no money in the deal!
Schlumberger set for solid This fall, 2023 outlook to take spotlight (NYSE:SLB)
$ZIM REGARD IS BACK WITH HIS YTD PERFORMANCE AND HIS PLAYS FOR Q1/Q2 2023 $VOO will become my new $ZIM
$ZIM REGARD IS BACK WITH HIS YTD PERFORMANCE AND HIS PLAYS FOR Q1/Q2 2023
2022-11-09 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
Jim Cramer expects energy stocks to rally if Republicans have a strong showing in the midterms. Do you agree?
2022-11-07 Wrinkle-brain Plays (Mathematically derived options plays)
2022-10-27 Better Tasting Crayons (Mathematically derived options plays)
schlumberger is a great company. What do you think? Should I hold?
$6k+ Gains 10Oct-21Oct SLB Earnings Play - Too Boomer for WSB
VLO trading at 44% below fair value (according to Yahoo Finance)
Schlumberger sees North American oil activity growing faster than expected $E.TO
58.4K to 129.6k over the past year on oil - mix of shares and leaps
IBKR Borrow Rate currently at >12000% for GME
Will SLB follow XOM and OXY to hit all time high next in the oil play?
Schlumberger Aka: SLB. It’s Oil and gas play WHILE you can get dividend.
OIH is the move and likewise oil and energy
Lithium Stock Consolidation is Happening now. Great time to look at the sector.
Recon Africa Presents at two African Oil Summits with Oil Majors Exxon, Shell, BP, CNOOC, Total, and Schlumberger. Includes Transcribed Presentations & Resources. $XOM $BP $RDS $TTE $SLB $RECAF $RECO $0XD
WOLFPACK, Sir. Squeeze is knocking on your door!
CL=F is still rising, but Oil itself is not the play. Do this instead.....
A covered call has the exact same profit profile as a naked short put! Interesting results of put-call parity explained.
Energy sector due to explode
$SPMT/$SPMTF Spearmint Resources News. 0.175/.0155
PSA: Interest rate shenanigans on IBKR when lending your shares
$BKTPF / $CRUZ.cse Cruz Cobalt Corp - News today, developments near Lithium project.
Lithium News in Clayton Valley. SLB announcement means more news coming. This is Huge for $SNNAF and $PEMIF going forward....
Mentions
HAL and SLB were cheap today
That’s an absolute insane policy. Are you 100% sure? Your picks are good companies but what matters most is the price you pay. I like to purchase stocks depending on what the market gives me. If a stock is down substantially, it’s a great companies with growing revenues, I now have a new position. Right now, I think all these stocks are basically at all time highs. I wouldn’t purchase now, price too expensive considering. At the current moment, I like Energy/Oil. Personally I’m invested in FANG, SLB, CEG & XLE Enterprise software has taken a huge hit. I like CRM, NOW. SPGI is a good choice now if you like moats. Why no tech?
SLB calls for May were a good play after all
MOC VLO CNQ XOM SLB all up each day 3%
you guys really need to find other stocks to bet on even though half my stocks were down 10-20 percent today im up like 7k because of my options on FAST PCG DVN KMX SLB APOG gotta love low IV stocks their options are dirt cheap and many have just monthly contracts giving you plenty of time for recovery case in point look at KMX i had 47.5 calls since after earnings that were down huge yesterday now im ATM with over 2 weeks left til expiration
I'm up 20% today...all you Momo's can't trade anything but Google or Nvidia 😂😂😂 oil and gas is ripping so are chemicals it's called companies with large profit margins XOm calls up 180% SLB 90% CC $130% RiG I bought at $3 lol
Smh why did I sell my SLB calls after earning on Friday. Guess I’ll go die
lol RDDT is beating SLB in drilling
did anyone mention the mothership? Pan American Silver (PAAS). on Jan 1st i rolled a 30 call to Jan 2027. i am currently up $1029. on Jan 16 i bought a 65 call so far a profit of $374 i have a gold/silver portfolio with 14 positions. since jan 1st my profit has been over $13,000. i like to buy a long term position and a short term position on the big miners. the shorter positions play earnings. i have 4 Etf, SLV,SILJ,IAU,CPER with SLV leading the pack. but do not be distracted by the metals. Oil is the next move for me. i might buy OXY,APA,SLB. but i might add more miners because of the merger/buyout action for 2026. keep hunting!
Cash gang needs to be rooting for DXY haha mandatory. So in theory they against SLB bulls. In any case , cash gang wants to see silver crash.
Anyone else tapped into SLB? It’s been printing
Checking out LNG companies. What’s the consensus of these tickers LNG and SLB? SLB reports earnings 1/23/26 and has been bullish the past 3 months. LNG is a major transporter with many assets, contracts, and the future appears to be promising. Thanks
not a big investing guru😂 Plan stays the same... Consistant VWCE, ISOE and then handpicking some bonbons😅example: TEVA, SLB, CRSP, OKLO, TM and so on... (mostly smaller amounts just to have a position and see where things are going) +crypto +silver/gold
What about oil? SLB popped a lot after the Venezuela attack
You must not be Venezuelan.The people seem pretty happy Until the Tren de Aragua get home .. And I don't give two flying fucks about that .I hope you're making huge gains in the stock market .Buy some SLB or OIH to make money off the Move down there.. you're welcome for the stock picks
Yes, but he was talking about different type od assets. HAL SLB KBR BKR, too much risks on majors.
HAL SLB KBR BKR in this order
Think the way to play it is the service companies like SLB and HAL. That being said... gonna be hard to convince any oil company to go back into Venezuela, even with US guarantees. Just better, cheaper and safer stuff elsewhere.
How do you know this 👀 Of course HAL is involved ! Not SLB?
LRCX CC’s down 214% NVO CC’s down 85% SLB CC’s down 425% FAHK
Service companies should do well. SLB, HAL, BH
The US is hijacking venezuelas oil reserves for strategic and leverage purposes. Everyone is circle jerking chevron but SLB does wells and mapping, they also have experience in the region and experience in destabilized countries. In short you have to repair the oil grid before you can barrel and sell.
It's ok bro I sold SLB last week, it happens. Lessons learned. I would add, for every paper-hand, there's a bag holder that got fukt. I paper-handed shit for like a year and was barely in the green, finally started trusting my conviction and it's paying off.
Yeah, perhaps. I honestly don't follow $HAL or $SLB anywhere near enough to say on those (see it's ok to admit when you don't understand something enough to make a play on it). I was more laughing at everyone on twitter and the like saying oil futures would gap down hard and Canadian oil companies were doomed. Or that CVX, XOM, BP etc would immediately gain bigly from this. Like 1, the VZ situation is far from settled. 2nd, it would take a shit ton of money and years to start pulling up VZ oil in a meaningful way. 3rd, these companies haven't earmarked any of their money for said venture yet. So when I saw Canadian names like CVE and SU get shit on in early market, I bought and sold in the afternoon for a quick easy day trade lmao. Long term remains murky as VZ is unresolved, Russia/Ukraine is unresolved, and there continues to be musings of going after Iran again.
The moves higher are justified for $HAL and $SLB. Both stocks had significantly under-performed the other $XLE stocks. The midstream pipeline stocks are a good buy too. The easy money to be made is always selling the picks & shovels for the oil "gold mines" so to speak.
Some of the moves don't make sense. Like, I don't think COP or XOM are going to enter or really commit to anything in a meaningful way. But like, CVX already has assets there so they likely will be reclaiming those. Then a few service companies will benefit from the increased CAPEX like HAL and SLB. The CAPEX need is pretty massive from what the reports mention on the overall infrastructure.
PLTR, ONDS, CVX, SLB, AMPX, UMAC, USAS, UAMY, RCAT Top of my head best to benefit from this situation Oh and expect inflation, so silver and gold to rise. So sad I sold my silver calls on friday, would have mooned today had I known the Venezuela thing would take place early January instead of late January
I've loaded up on HAL and SLB at market open. In any case, it's a good diversification from all the tech stocks in my portfolio
My shares of Halliburton say differently. $HAL and $SLB are both up +7% Monday. Whose equipment & services are going to be used in Venezuela now?
What’s options for SLB about to do today? Looking spicy.
SLB and HAL make some sense.
So we are all gonna pile into HAL, SLB,XOM today at the bell, amirite?!
Some companies I invested in here: have a look into them 1. SLB & Baker Hughes (BKR) The "Picks & Shovels" (Service Companies) Think of these as the contractors you hire to renovate a house. They don't own the oil; they are paid to find it and get it out of the ground. • What they do: They provide high-tech drilling bits, sensors to "see" underground, and chemicals to clean out old, clogged wells. • Venezuela Role: Venezuela’s oil fields have been neglected for a decade. They are broken and rusted. SLB and Baker Hughes are the only companies in the world with the massive equipment needed to "restart" these dead fields. • Why invest? They get paid upfront for their services. Even if the price of oil drops, they still get paid to do the repairs. 2. Chevron (CVX) The "Landlord" (Integrated Major) Chevron is an "Integrated" company, meaning they do everything from drilling the oil to selling the petrol. • What they do: They own the rights to the oil in the ground. They manage the entire operation and take the most profit when oil is sold. • Venezuela Role: Chevron is the "special guest" in Venezuela. They are the only U.S. company that never fully left. They already have the staff and the joint-venture contracts with the local government. • Why invest? They are the fastest "shortcut" to more oil. While other companies are still signed in contracts, Chevron is already loading tankers. 3. Valero (VLO) The "Factory" (The Refiner) Valero is a "Downstream" company. They don't look for oil; they buy "crude" (raw) oil from others and turn it into products you use. • What they do: They own massive refineries (mostly on the US Gulf Coast) that cook crude oil to make gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. • Venezuela Role: Venezuelan oil is "heavy" and "sour" (thick and full of sulfur). Most refineries can't handle it, but Valero’s factories were specifically built for it. • Why invest? When Venezuela starts exporting again, they have to sell their thick oil at a discount because it's hard to process. Valero buys it cheap, turns it into expensive petrol, and pockets the difference.
This is actually solid DD, thanks for laying out the phases like that Already grabbed some SLB calls this morning when I saw the Venezuela news trending. The services angle makes way more sense than going straight for the majors - those guys won't see real money for years if this even works out Chevron staying put during the Chavez mess was actually galaxy brain moves in hindsight. They're basically the only ones with boots on the ground already
SLB and HAL is what I’m going with!
Remember Trump’s ”bold idea” to turn Gaza into a beach front resort? It is a bit difficult to reconcile the extremely competent performance of the government in apprehending Maduro and the rambling nonsense which is Trump but you should forget everything he said. Still, HAL, SLB, and BKR are good companies
At this moment, $HAL +13% $CVX + 10%, BKR +10%, $SLB +12% $VLO +10%, $MPC + 10% $COP +8% $SOC +6% By the time the news hits its always too late.
For anyone wanting to look at the actual price action and fundamentals instead of the narrative, here’s the SLB ticker page: [https://aimytrade.io/ticker/SLB](https://aimytrade.io/ticker/SLB)
I just looked at the charts of CVX, SLB and HAL, someone definitely knew on Friday, before it happened.
Was thinking of loading up HAL/SLB on open, but too late I guess
Everybody is telling CVX to chill, nobody is looking at SLB.
the services play (HAL / SLB) makes way more sense than chasing crude hype, oil prices fade, contracts and billable hours don’t
my SLB 40 calls were like 20 bucks each last week too bad i only doubled down instead of triple
The play is oil infrastructure, not oil. It would take billions of investment to repair the decayed infrastructure. That's where the money is to be made. In the short term oil goes up very slightly from the loss of supply during conflict. In the long term oil goes down after HAL and SLB make billions in getting everything started up.
Markets are forward looking and like easy money. There's billions on the line in repairing infrastructure. Markets not reacting means they don't think anything has changed, which is true. The same exact people are in power minus 1 person. If Trump announced a permanent 20k troop presense then HAL and SLB would absolutely gap up now.
Yen Carry Trade, CME Margin requirements on Silver Contracts, and now onto my next armchair degree, Oil Services, BKR, SLB, obvs HAL
I just added 2000 shares of SLB not long time ago.
NOV was up 5% as well. H&P was up nearly 5%. PTEN was up 6%. SLB was up almost 5%.
Try “chevron” SLB” “concoco Phillips” “Halliburton”
https://preview.redd.it/707grksuxdbg1.jpeg?width=2340&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1942d19b056e93445a99417d7bf72e5e1b925c65 So, I have a company overview. The first graph is contract volume. The red line is rolling 8 day average and the blue line is daily activity. You can see a huge spike for this one. The next two graphs show distribution for expiration date and strike price. The final is simple price and volume. I just built this and started to run it, and im just starting to get more serious about investing (because im old and my retirement is devastated from divorces).. Welcome any feedback. I have other deeper analysis tools, moving day average - price recovery after a drop with linked news sentiment, etc.. Trying to put it all together into a strategy that has me with a better quality of life, later in life. ;) On the Venezuela thing, Rubio announced today US wouldn't be running Venezuela. I wonder what that will do to SLB and CVX.. (Those were the ones I was targeting..)
The capture of Nicolás Maduro and the subsequent U.S. intervention in Venezuela have unlocked the world's largest oil reserves, potentially increasing accessible supply 9-fold. To capitalize on this historic shift, focus on these picks: - Chevron (CVX): The primary beneficiary with the strongest existing footprint in Venezuela. - SLB & Baker Hughes (BKR): Critical for the multi-billion dollar rehabilitation of broken oil infrastructure. - ConocoPhillips (COP): Positioned to finally recover $8.7 billion in seized assets. XLE ETF: Best for broad exposure to the surging U.S. energy sector.
What’s the market angle that actually trades? * Oil: Venezuelan crude is heavy/sour. U.S. refiners can process it, but throughput, margins, and contract terms decide outcomes. A quick gasoline glut is unlikely; diesel/asphalt effects are more plausible. Near-term watchlists: refiners (VLO, MPC), services (SLB, HAL), integrateds (CVX). * Gold: Above-ground Venezuelan reserves are limited; new mining is slow. Hard catalyst for a gold crash is weak—uncertainty often supports gold and miners/ETFs. * Geopolitics: This looks more like U.S.–China pressure than pure commodities. Expect higher risk premia, defense names bid, and swings in rare earths/critical minerals on export-control narratives. * Power/AI: Backup generation demand is real, but fuel logistics and capex are multi-quarter. GNRC/CMI can benefit from deployments; it’s not an overnight fix for the grid. Bottom line: price in more volatility and be selective across energy, defense, and equipment instead of assuming a clean “oil flood” or a gold collapse.
I was buying SLB back in June when no one else wanted it. Bought it as a value/turn around play. It’s up about 17% as of market close Friday. It is profitable, but has subpar growth and is expensive now. I’ve seen several Reddit posts about it in the last few days. Maybe time to sell. lol.
I’ll be scoping out oil services companies like SLB, BKR and HAL
This idea is wrong at the foundation, not just risky at the edges. You are treating geopolitics like a delayed earnings catalyst and assuming capital markets work on "eventually". They don’t. Venezuela’s oil reserves are irrelevant. What matters is governance, legal certainty, contract enforcement, currency controls, repatriation risk, and political reversibility. None of those have improved in a way that institutional capital can rely on. US sanctions are not a switch that flips to "on"; they are layered, conditional, and reversible with elections. Any licence expansion can be revoked overnight. That alone kills long-dated investment cases. Chevron is not a Venezuela recovery play. It is a $300bn balance sheet that tolerates limited Venezuelan exposure because it is politically connected enough to unwind safely. If Venezuela improves, CVX barely moves. If Venezuela deteriorates, CVX survives and locals don’t. That asymmetry favours Chevron, not you. Oilfield services are an even worse read. SLB, Halliburton, and Baker Hughes do not deploy crews and capital into jurisdictions where payment risk, expropriation risk, and sanctions compliance risk are unresolved. When they do, it’s on terms that cap upside and protect downside. You do not get the upside you are imagining, and you still carry the narrative risk. US refiners like Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 are not waiting around for Venezuelan barrels. They already optimise feedstock from multiple jurisdictions. If Venezuelan crude re-enters, it marginally shifts inputs. That is not a growth thesis. That is operational noise. Nothing here is "early". The market has known about Venezuelan reserves for decades. Every sanctions rumour is instantly arbitraged by funds with better information, lawyers, and political access than you. If there were real, durable change, it would show up first in sovereign debt pricing, CDS spreads, currency controls easing, and long-dated contracts not in retail equity narratives. Timeline-wise, this is not months. It is not even years in any actionable sense. It is a regime-change bet dressed up as an infrastructure play. Those only pay if you are inside the room when policy is written. You are not. Clear signs this idea is wrong are already present: repeated sanctions whiplash, zero enforceable investor protections, capital controls, and companies explicitly limiting exposure despite "licences". When the smartest players structure deals to cap upside, that tells you everything. This is story-first investing. You are anchoring to a map-colouring exercise and calling it analysis. The correct takeaway is not "which angle", it is that this entire line of thought confuses macro curiosity with investable opportunity.
Be careful here. Oil prices rise and fall on production levels. That’s why the OPEC meeting have more to do with the price of gas than anything else. More oil=lower prices=slimmer margins. E.g. if I sell 1 BBL at $100 and get 50% GM, then I have to sell 2 BBLs at $50 to get the same GM and support my fixed costs. Twice the work for the same NI. BKR and SLB are safer bets. Rebuilding the oil fields is incremental work for them, and will happen sooner. Also - don’t buy Monday. There’s still many unanswered questions…like…who’s really in charge of Venezuela right now? All we did was drop a few bombs and capture their President, yet the Admin talks like we’re in full control. Trust me, we’re not. Better to wait a few months to see how this shakes out. Whatever the share prices end at Monday is going to pull back as more is learned.
Dude, In theory, US oil companies are to be big beneficiaries of the Venezuela oil grab. But things are not so simple: 1. Infrastructure in V is very bad. Massive investments needed to expand current production and these are likely to take years, before any benefits for the likes of majors such as Chevron and Exxon can be seen. Near-term, the likes of SLB and HAL, being the sellers of shovels, are the best bets. 2. Immediate term, current V production can now be released into the unsanctioned global crude oil market. This has the effect of lowering crude oil prices further, and of course negatively impacting producers such as Chevron, Exxon and US shale producers. 3. The vast majority of country’s production and reserves are the lower-quality heavy, sour crude, which sells in the market **below** WTI. Hence less profitable for those involved. Happy punting, albeit don’t get your hopes too high.
Oil services will pop, they're gonna build the hell out of that basin and retrofit all the technology. SLB and HAL are gonna go crazy. Of course I sold my SLB position last week.
Yes and I am looking at Schlumberger SLB too, SLB will be the brains of the operation and they have the technology to start new wells in Venezuela and they have the technology to get to hard to reach oil, I will be looking to hold both SLB and HAL for the next 8 months. A refinery to look at is Valero VLO as these already have the infrastructure to refine venuzelas type of oil. They are one of the few refineries that can refine heavy crude.
He wants oil so load up on Chevron, Exxxon, and SLB ASAP. Notice how they all followed the same inconspicuous pattern on Friday? That’s some strategic insider buying.
Some informative videos here I'm trying to get bonds right now and going VLO, PBC and PBF since heavy crude is a effort to process, (used to broker oil crude en590 etc) Also HAL obviously, SLB and BKR are pretty much mentioned by the president himself Can't believe we are in a time of effectively invading countries but tbh I think probably better for the people there than the level of corruption it had, they will hand it back over eventually and in the meantime there will be a lot of opportunity for people living there who are some of the most friendly warm people I've met https://youtu.be/24HUOARwbTQ?si=AyhqW2kmEnloiPBi https://youtube.com/shorts/765XDmQV5XI?si=3-4O5y-zx25TJLfN
Short USO and long oil services like HAL, SLB, WFRD.
SLB seems like a safe bet. Have infrastructure set up in Venezuela already and carte blanche to do more now.
Chevron (CVX) is the only major still working in Venezuela, Exxon (XOM) & ConocoPhillips (COP) have huge arbitration awards on the books but no direct presence in Venezuela. My money is on the downstream guys like Valero (VLO) who can refine Venezuela’s heavy sour crude and the services companies like SLB & Baker Hughes (BKR).
I think Conoco and Chevron had the most stolen assets, if these assets get returned that is a massive boost to the balance sheets - LEAPS are 1-2 years out so they have time to realize increased margins. This is a long term play so waiting for cheap premiums on calls is the key, after the pump on Friday call options are up ~+50%. I think HAL & SLB would be a short term play (6-12 months) and calls could benefit from any announced contracts for rebuilding infrastructure. On the refining side I am just not very sure. Do they make more profit when oil is cheaper (crude price will decrease if they ramp up production), or do margins stay the same and refined fuels decrease along side the crude price? Also, do they actually make more profit from Venezuela oil vs importing discounted Canadian oil? I just dont know those answers yet. One thing is likely, this will reduce the US demand for Canadian crude so maybe puts on Canadian producers? Maybe Canada pivots to supplying the crude to China that US is trying to cut off from Venezuela?
SLB. Their tech and expertise will be needed to restore those fields. Chevron: the only incumbent producer. COP: May get their fields back that Chavez seized Valero: cheaper feedstock
Chevron, SLB.. How far out are you setting call expirations?
To have a friendly oil producing nation yes! To have the Chinese and Russians out of the americas yes! But to think that most of the oil revenue is going to American Companies is just false! HAL, SLB, XOM, CVX will get service contracts, and access to oil, but so will foreign companies. They will help rebuild the oil industry just like in Iraq, but the biggest beneficiary is the Venezuelan people and PDSV. Them making a few extra billion is nothing compared to the economic boom this would create for the Venezuelan people. You can argue that overthrowing the regime like this is unethical, but it’s just not true that this would lead to the oil “being stolen” in any figure of the imagination. It’s just not possible legally and practically. My business partner is Venezuelan, and he has been waiting for a moment like this his whole life. The theft, murder, rape of his country by these gangsters. Hopefully they can rebuild and he can move back after 15 years in exile.
RIG is worth consideration for sure. SLB, HAL also. Big US-based oil like XOM, CVX, OXY. Buffet (Berkshire) had 28% of OXY shares. only mention because that means those shares are essentially off the market for the next several years. So the OXY float is actually 28% lower than what is listed.
Markets won’t change much. VZ accounts for less than 1% of global oil production. Medium term Valero, SLB, Chevron and COP will benefit
Valero, SLB, and Chevron will benefit. Valero from better crack spreads. SLB from work to rehabilitate those fields. Chevron from being the incumbent producer.
Also Valero (better crack spreads, SLB (for oil field services), and COP (they had their oil fields seized and sued Venezuela - maybe they get them back now
Valero. They have the most heavy crude refining and benefit from increased supply. Improved their crack spreads. SLB. The Venezuelan oil fields are in a states of disrepair. They’ll need SLB’s tech to get back online and producing efficiently Chevron. Only oil company with a presence in Venezuela. This presumes an orderly transition to a US-friendly regime and not a civil war.
My turnaround plays for 2026/2027 are NKE, SBUX, and some energy plays (which have already started to rally a bit - SLB, XOM).
my SLB position is already up 13% and still has room to run. they dominate oilfield services and have global span instead of focusing on a single play or basin.
Great post, thanks! Vistra is on my watchlist. Currently have XLE and SLB leap calls for my energy plays. Also own Williams in my long hold stock basket.
I've been stacking CNQ, XOM, PR, EOG, and SLB since June. Basically all of them are already up 10-20% and paying 3-6% dividends even with oil prices falling off since then.
SLB. Gonna need their services after Trump bless up Venezuela
SLB and Haliburton are solid solid companies, way better run than the producers but I'm not sure they have the short term SPIKE we need to play on a trade. I also hazard they won't hit the oil fields unless Maduro pulls a Saddam and starts scorched earth. If you hit the oil fields there's no longer a carrot to a carrot and the aircraft carrier.
There’s a longer term play around the oil field services companies like SLB and Haliburton. Those Venezuelan oil fields will need a ton of capex to redevelop.
To me the companies that will benefit from a coup and a more friendly US regime are: Near term: oil equipment companies like SLB, Baker Hughes, Haliburton. Also maybe COP as they could recover their assets that Venezuela seized. And maybe chevron who is the only incumbent and could expand production of their fields aren’t smashed in a war Longer term. Refineries like Valero, who is the largest sour crude refiner in America. Venezuelan oil gives it more feedstock supply. This presumes the coup is successful and there isn’t an insurgency afterwards. Which is a big if
Well the thing is, Baker Hughes has been doing better than SLB through this downturn, because they’re more diversified in LNG and technology so they’re not affected by lower exploration activity as bad as SLB. So in an oil downturn, SLB gets hurt worse (which is why it’s been so cheap lately), but in a rebound, they benefit more. I would say Baker Hughes is the better investment in the short to mid term, SLB in the long term with oil eventually rebounding.
I guess if I had to invest in a potential rebound of oil in 5-7 years I would go for Baker Hughes, why? Much leaner organization, strong AI usage in their functions to make processes more streamlined, less competitive environment internally (In SLB Business Lines are basically enemies of each other) and instead of losing talent they are collecting talent from companies like SLB, no reduction in Capex for R&D (though they are reducing in operations as all the industry), Baker has half the debt with almost 80% of SLB’s revenue. Betting on a rebound I would defined go for them if I had money to invest 😅
Yeah those are also some good points, but just because oil is out of style right now doesn’t mean it won’t eventually rebound. But you’re right in that the timeline is uncertain. Most people think ‘26 will be a huge glut, so any surprise to the upside will make SLB surge. If oil goes ^$70 oilfield services will absolutely surge. We know it will, but when is hard to say. Trump is rolling back emissions requirements, and developing countries are gonna need a lot of oil in the next decade, so in the long-term a recovery is all but inevitable. SLB is doing the same thing all companies do in a downturn, I don’t see any particular missteps outside of the missteps every corporation makes in regard to outsourcing and attrition. When oil rebounds those same people will jump back in, with higher salary offers luring them in.
I think OPEC has way less power today than what they did years back, nowadays they crave money and the margins are not the same, while Saudi is comfortable with a barrel of 20 USDs, Russia is not. To me the OPEC will crumble once Venezuela goes back in the market and Russia requires the oil machinery to start selling to recover from the war economy. I have nothing against SLB in fact I know for a fact they are doing everything they can to keep things running on the field, like reducing operational costs like crazy to keep things lean (at the cost of good people leaving) Genvia was supposed to have a revolutionary hydrogen breakthrough that has shown nothing, Geothermal, just a couple of projects, Carbon capture? De-prioritized, Litium for Panasonic JV? Still in baby steps, research centers are reducing CAPEX, and we all know that reduction in R&D is not a good sign. I don’t know maybe I am too pesimistic but I don’t see anything good in mid term, I wouldn’t be surprised if next year oil price is still low they will either freeze dividends or keep the layoffs and third party all of their functional operations (IT is getting outsourced and likely they will continue to reduce overhead unless prices go up) I feel the previous CEO was more money oriented even though he was well known for being a jackass, Olivier is the kind of guy that looks good in the pictures but the organization strategy is starting to shake. I feel in terms of energy, wind, nuclear and hydro are much safer bets, oil is not cool anymore and in my head SLB’s worldwide exposure will be their worst enemy, I see SLB as the next Blackberry, Nokia or Yahoo, big company that will just go out of fashion though you might very well say they are too big to fail which it’s completely correct as well. (This is my personal opinion not financial, insider nor economical advise in any way)
Good points, and if the Ukraine war is resolved soon, that would bring more oil back into the market. But there’s a couple of things you’re not considering: 1. OPEC isn’t going to let prices drop too low. If it goes much lower they’ll start cutting output. 2. Everyone is expecting global economic activity to slowdown in 2026, and an oil glut. If there’s a surprise to the upside on GDP, like the Fed projected, oil consumption could increase and prices could go back up. Regardless, oil prices have been declining since 2022. Prices always eventually go back up. Even if there’s another year or two of declining prices, SLB will eventually recover. I actually made quite a bit of money off of their recent stock gains (36 -> 40) and sold, since the market seems so wobbly right now, and an AI unwinding could bring everything down temporarily. But I still think it’s a good long term play, and if geothermal takes off, even more-so.
SLB is strengthening their portfolio by acquiring technology that either complements or expands its business but what someone said above is 100% true, SLB is right now going over insane attrition issues, their technology (non field personnel) is fleeing the organization due to the cyclical nature of oil, and reduction of benefits and salary (back in the day O&G has the best salaries, now it’s not case anymore) in terms of future growth things are not looking great, their technology potential exit of Maduro in Venezuela will flood the market with cheap oil which will again deviate attention from other sources of energy which make little sense if oil is cheap.
KEY DVN APOG SLB KDP almost every div stock i have options on has been printing sell before ex div and buy back the day after