Reddit Posts
Beacon Analyst update on Re-Schedule and SAFER
NY Times - More than one-fifth of people who use cannabis struggle with dependency or problematic use, according to Journal of AMA
Safe Banking Act Timeline and Implications
Discussion with TER, TRUL, VRNO LFLY tomorrow
Mentions
Did some charting yesterday, plotted some mid-May/June buy zones .. MSOS -- $7.74 to 8.89 MSOX -- $10.10 to 11.38 GTII- $13.90 to 14.25 (CAD) TRUL -- $12.34 to 13.48 (CAD) ps .. $4.19 on MSOS was the entry for today Source: Trust me bro
Did some charting yesterday, plotted some mid-May/June buy zones .. MSOS -- $2.74 to 2.89 MSOX -- $1.10 to 1.38 GTII- $6.90 to 7.25 (CAD) TRUL -- $6.34 to 6.48 (CAD)
I agree with this assessment...TRUL and GTI will go hard!
CURA has another 50% to run if not more. TRUL has 100-150% from here green Thumb either keeps trending up low volatility or goes parabolic. 3 and 1/2 months of punishment was long enough boyz Best luck to all players ♦️
TRUL is likely to see that $7.80 gap fill before EOD tomorrow ..
Hype Rally = \~60-70% at best on the bigger names like GTII and TRUL Small players like CL, VRNO, TSND might see higher % gains just based on a lower perceived cost per share. They will garner more Robin Hooder's looking to gamble on a few hundred $1-2 shares MSOS, it tops at maybe $6.50-6.75, but even that will be a flash in the pan price before it really dumps back into the $2-3 range and eventually has to do a rev split
Then Why would the IRS refund TRUL?
I wouldn't say so. Many were under the belief that past dues might be forgiven Not sure why anybody would be touching TRUL here given this and then the fall ballot news that just dumped
Thanks, it's been harsh. Sorry for my rant. Ayr and cresco warrants were big 100% losses... Hoping my TRUL VRNO and MSOX break even someday...
Another week and a half to kill here, just ran some numbers First number is an alert to watch, second one is a buy zone MSOS: $3.37 - $2.99 USD GTII: $8.10 - $7.40 CAD TRUL: $7.40 - $6.61 CAD CURA: $2.41 - $1.96 CAD CL: $1.25 - $0.99 CAD VRNO: $1.28 - $1.10 *\*all data is speculative and not to be taken as real trade ideas ;)*
Don't see it at all, all I see is a false floor Expecting a close of <$8.50 on GTII, $8-8.25 on TRUL
Well boyz. We did not make it on the federal register for today. Surprising I know. However, I see no reason GTI and TRUL cannot rally 10-30% today in preparation for our destiny which relinquishes us from our eternal bag holding. Hopefully all of you who could used this recent correction to DCA if that was an applicable scenario for your portfolio. 💼
What's crazy to me is TRUL has more than double the amount of stores that GTII has and they make roughly the same revenue! 113 stores for GTII and 233 for TRUL
GTII -- Tonight, Feb 25th after close VRNO -- Feb 26th before open TRUL -- Feb 26th before open, CC at 8:30AM CURA -- Feb 26th after close, CC at 5PM \------------------ Have a feel that VRNO is going to be the standout this round. All followed closely by CURA, then GTII, and with TRUL taking up the rear :)
Wed Feb 25th -- GTII Thurs Feb 26th -- TRUL, CURA, VRNO
On track for fills MSOS .. $3.76 GTII .. $8.81 TRUL .. $8.27 \------------- Possible but will naturally be harder to hit due to the lower SPs and the old 'penny stock effect' CL .. $1.05 VRNO .. $1.28 \-------------- Long shot, but it's still sitting there waiting CURA .. $2.41 (from Aug/25)
Florida allows 30 stores per company, but Trulieve has 150+. Whatever you think is the reason behind TRUL's ability to have 5x the stores as its competitors and basically take 50% of the market share, the reality is they're heavily exposed to Florida. They stand to gain, and lose, the most from legalization in Florida.
Like a magnet attracts the iron, so do the gaps in this sector TLRY finally got the fill at $11.59 CAD Any major signs of weakness or dilution and $9.00 CAD comes back into play \------------ Other notable gaps to put on your Spring/Summer dance cards MSOS .. $3.76 TRUL .. $8.27 CAD GTII .. $8.81 CAD CL .. $1.05 CAD CURA .. $3.04 CAD VRNO .. $1.28 CAD TSND .. $ .69 CAD
>Do u guys think TRUL can hit $30 cad Yes. >this year Considering how much they have riding on hopes of recreational cannabis in Florida, yes. But only if they win.
Do u guys think TRUL can hit $30 cad this year
The price action since Dec 23 is setting up for some kind of headline to hit. TSND, MSOS, TRUL, ACB among others all look like they're waiting for something. Should be fun.
Now this is a brand powerhouse if only we could invest in. GTII , TRUL etc have nothing on this company in terms of brand awareness and price. I've had Wyld gummies in multiple states and I believe they also sell in Canada.
I remember the morning when tlry hit 40 and I slept really good the night before watching the pre market before. Never felt that since. It will be soon boys. Here's to TRUL hitting 65 again.
Pre split days... Brings me back nightmares.. Never thought I will see light of the day 🙏🏽 Holding a ton of TRUL at $23 cad too.
Still a long way to go guys... my TRUL average is $23 cad.. VRNO at $5 cad.. MSOX at $27... AYR.. well that's a 0
GTI and TRUL will both go up from here on any solid confirmation. We are still down near 50% from pre-election, and both companies have only made money. If Trump cancels 280e for TRUL back taxes, they go parabolic.
Sold my riskier plays and dumped everything into TRUL and GTII. GTLA
What's funny, now if TLRY did a PP you'd all be screaming afoul, how dare those bastards dilute us share holders!!! TRUL pulls a fast one and they get a 'good move here' !!! lol Perhaps we will soon learn the REAL truth behind why they closed off the other debt early -->> or why they were forced to is what I really suspect This is to be continued I'm sure!!!
There are credible and well-reasoned legal arguments asserting that Section 280E does not apply to purely intrastate, state-licensed cannabis operations. If the issue is fully litigated, I believe companies like Trulieve (TRUL) and Curaleaf (CURLF), along with other operators taking similar positions, would either prevail outright or at minimum see their 280E-related tax liabilities significantly reduced or eliminated.
What are people thoughts on TRUL and VRNO making a 300% move from here?
TRUL & Cresco, go to zero already and end this misery lol
I’ve been in cannabis on and off since the 2017 Canopy days, and it still blows my mind how we can drop 30% on no news. Now it feels like another mountain just to get back to where we were on Thursday. Honestly, at this point I’d love to see GTII or TRUL just get bought out and go private—the market is completely irrational
WEED and TLRY bitching for the Red. CRESCO weeping, thinking down only 3% is a blessing. TRUL and GTII: WTF... That's like nothing. CURA enters the room...
Not gonna lie... those TRUL numbers don't fill me with confidence. Haven't liked TRUL since the Harvest merger, kept hanging on due to sunk cost... reallllly didnt like the huge dollars they put into election last year, but the numbers just don't get any better.
GTI and TRUL about to fall off a cliff...
I wonder if they are going to bid on those AYR assets in Florida. That would be a nice acquisition and allow for them to compete with TRUL.
TRUL keeps popping up at the end of day now. I much prefer this trend then that massive drop at EOD we had all summer long. Woot Woot!
I wish GTI and TRUL were on the ‘Daq
Agreed thats a solid strategy. GTI has the best balance sheet by a mile. Stick to shares of the tier 1 companies if you are risk averse, and have some cash to DCA if we go down more. I'm not a fan at all of the MSOS fund, but it's the only way to lever up (outside of taking out a loan or something I guess). So I think mid 2026-2027 leaps are are good choice as well. For me, I have both Jan 2027 MSOS options and 70% GTI / 20% TRUL / 10% CURA for shares.
To me buying stable companies at this level is a good idea when the broader market is so overpriced, even gold ffs lol. Not trimming my GTI or TRUL (minor) until schedule 3 and Florida rec.
I’d balance safety and return so any of the top guys GTII, CURA, TRUL easily the top guys that will lead any ETFs. The rest are a tier down.
Incase anyone is curious I asked Grok 4 Expert why the next two largest MSOs haven’t uplisted from the CSE to the TSX: Trulieve Cannabis (CSE: TRUL; OTC: TCNNF) and Green Thumb Industries (CSE: GTII; OTC: GTBIF) have not uplisted to the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) primarily due to strategic priorities, regulatory complexities, and perceived limited benefits compared to potential future U.S. exchange listings. 97 107 108 Both companies, as U.S.-based multistate operators (MSOs) in the cannabis sector, face unique challenges stemming from federal illegality in the U.S., which complicates listings on major exchanges. Key Reasons: • Focus on Potential U.S. Exchange Uplisting: Many MSOs, including Trulieve and Green Thumb, are prioritizing federal cannabis rescheduling (e.g., moving to Schedule III), which could eliminate punitive 280E taxes and enable direct listings on U.S. exchanges like NASDAQ or NYSE. 7 30 76 62 This would offer greater liquidity, higher valuations, and broader institutional access than the TSX. Rescheduling progress (e.g., HHS recommendations and ongoing DEA reviews) has fueled optimism, making a TSX move seem like an unnecessary interim step. 96 94 For instance, Trulieve filed a shelf registration in June 2025 with no immediate plans for offerings, signaling preparation for U.S. opportunities rather than TSX. 83 • Higher Costs and Complexity of TSX Uplisting: Listing on the TSX is more expensive and rigorous than remaining on the Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE), where both companies currently trade. 107 It often requires raising capital (e.g., Curaleaf raised CA$16 million in 2023 to meet TSX float requirements) and complex restructuring, such as ring-fencing U.S. plant-touching assets to comply with legal concerns. 79 81 107 This could involve dilution, which both companies may want to avoid—Green Thumb announced a $50 million share repurchase program in 2024, focusing on returning value to shareholders instead. 73 Auditor sign-off on consolidated financials including U.S. operations remains uncertain due to federal risks. 107 • Limited Perceived Benefits: While the TSX offers better visibility and potential index inclusion (e.g., S&P/TSX Composite), experiences like Curaleaf’s suggest it may not significantly boost institutional investment or valuations due to share structures and ongoing U.S. federal stigma. 2 105 108 98 Trulieve and Green Thumb, with strong operational focus (e.g., expansions in Florida and Ohio), may see staying on CSE/OTC as sufficient for now, especially with comparable market caps to Curaleaf (~C$2 billion each). 12 6 • Market and Regulatory Caution: The TSX has been receptive to cannabis firms, but U.S. MSOs must navigate TMX Group policies on U.S. operations. 80 1 61 With events like Florida’s failed adult-use legalization in 2024 impacting sector sentiment, companies like Trulieve (heavily Florida-exposed) are prioritizing cash flow and operations over exchange upgrades. 4 95 Overall, while not explicitly stated by the companies, analyst commentary and industry trends indicate these MSOs view TSX uplisting as a lower-priority move amid hopes for U.S. reforms. 97 102 If rescheduling stalls, they could reconsider, as seen with Curaleaf in 2023. 86
I was in there at those times too, I pulled the plug on both of them a long time ago. My investing simple was pretty straightforward, put all my monies into GTI (with TRUL too) as I saw them as the eventual winners or companies that will last if rescheduling doesn't go through. Verano has a pile of debt. I trade ACB to capture price movement with options.
I went hard into Trulieve shares again. $TRUL $TCNNF. Adult use is gonna get back on the ballot in 2026 in Florida. They are a real business with real operations, not like the Canadian joke companies. Also: I’m Canadian
I got TRUL at $23 CAD and VRNO at $5.. I hope I can get them.. MSOX is a way out at $58.. but I might throw a bit to bring those averages to the $20s.
Agreed. But only a few have crossed so far. LPs led the way with VFF being the first to cross followed by CRON, OGI, and most recently SNDL. On the MSO side, TRUL and CURA have crossed while the other top tier names are currently approaching.
If TRUL doubles from here I can finally break even after 5 years
What are people's TRUL targets if things go great regulatorily speaking? Like reschedule, safe banking, and just steady meaningful progress forward (finally...). I know it's impossible to know. But I am thinking it could reach past previous ATH around $80 and maybe poke $100 if stuff gets real cray cray. Am I just cray cray?
It's that High Tide has an operational structure that is built to last. They have grown the strongest federally legal retail brand in existence, in a highly competitive environment. If you can compete in Canada you can compete anywhere. Green thumb and Trulieve are decent companies, and definitely have more exposure to the US. But their operational structure is trash, and all institutional investors recognize this. Nobody wants to invest in a company that has a patchwork of farming operations in every state where they operate retail stores. It's messy and inefficient. Long term the US will have three categories of weed companies and only two of them will be investable. 1) Pure play large scale farmers (Not investable) 2) Pure Play CPG Companies (Investable) 3) Pure Play Retailers. (Investable) It's one thing to invest in Maxwell House (CPG) or Starbucks (Retail) but who in their right mind would invest in the company that grows the beans? It's a commodity and it's simply too competitive/low margin. High Tide has the winning model, and they intend to bring it to the US once the NASDAQ allows it. They focus purely on retail and even develop their own CPG brands without growing a single gram of cannabis. They've eliminated all of the messy aspects of the MSO model and give investors exactly what they asked for.. the Starbucks of weed. The only way MSOs like GTII or TRUL will survive in an interstate commerce environment is to sell off their grow operations and get focussed on what matters. Brands, and/or the best retail locations.
From. Awwww man another slight down day to holy donkey dong! TRUL making me have hope for the future. This emotional roller coaster man I tell ya.
Someone has to explain wtf is happening with the buying/selling of MSOs by the ETF. Selling GTII and TRUL for lower tiers? And why the absolute fuck are they hoarding cash now when they were fine having a negative cash balance only just a few weeks ago?!
I'm all for TRUL, and CURA is okay too, but make it make sense! I'm gonna have to do some rebalancing, refinance my mortgage, and go all in on GTII if this keeps up LOL Goddamn...
HOLD UP TRUL and CURA now have a higher weighting than GTII in $MSOS??! No words...wow.
Yeah I feel like Verano has another 30-50% upside to get into a similar valuation range as GTI and TRUL…here’s hoping
I won't be surprised if other T1s like CURA and TRUL have caught up to GTII due to appreciating more than GTII this past week or so. And if that is the case, GTII no longer being #1 will be something to behold.
It was Kim Rivers talking to Trump (and not Ben Kovler). IF (big IF) Florida should go rec, I don’t wanna even imagine where TRUL will trade …..
Is it normal to not be able to set a stop loss on GTI and TRUL on Fidelity? Im determined to stop getting burned on these and have been holding since 2021. I’m so pumped for this week but am very aware that one poorly worded statement from the child rapist will erase these gains.
7.78 GTI 5.71 TRUL 0.78 Cresco Been swing trading CBST for nice gains. Got in at .11 and cashed out Monday at .205.
Much more risk with TRUL, but potentially higher short term gains. Far less risk on GTI, but everyone wins. If you truly believe it’ll happen, just pick one and enjoy the ride.
I think it’s a good idea to diversify a bit because as you mentioned the connections too TRUL seem pretty evident. I like both those companies a lot though.
Watching TLRY ping-pong between $1.02 and $1.03 is pretty funny. Trading tight as hell right now. Sold my small position of TRUL yesterday for light profit and rolled it into TLRY. If this is where we’re consolidating I’m very happy with this. Obviously things can change on a dime. Could bite me in the ass, leaving TRUL but I still have some GTI and I feel like with all this volume TLRY has a potential for a massive short squeeze. Let’s get this bread boys and girls.
Been a minute folks. Gimme some tickers to check out beyond TRUL and GTI
Amazing dude. You killing it. I'm still holding 6000 TRUL at $16 ish..i think I will get there.
My TRUL cad average is around $23..i hope it's achievable soon.
Like ManualCAD is saying, GTI’s market cap is much higher than most, though TRUL is catching up and had a huge day. Another reason is that GTI pays its taxes, while other operators are much more levered to a favourable outcome on 280e taxation. It’s a gamble, but may drastically improve the prospects of companies like Verano, Cresco, Trulieve, and others relative to how tax changes would effect GTI.
Ya most likely, I actually don't like TRUL at all and haven't for a long time. Should have listened to myself over and over prior to the election but I bought into the Florida rec' hype despite thinking it was a super long shot with the 60%. Definitely still kicking myself for that one. IMO TCNNF has been nothing but bad news since the Harvest merger.
Haven't been keeping track of my weed stocks(still holding GTII, TRUL & TLRY). Been concentrating on my growing my kid's RESP account given how expensive Uni is. But it is nice to see a day like this. Any reason why GTII is lagging... up 20% while others reached 30 to 40%?
I'm about 33% in the green on TRUL! Looking forward to seeing +XXXX.XX%! But then, it's my only green cannabis position. All others are only down ~10-15% except Tilray, where my shares are still down over *40%*. Already unloaded about 20% of my Tilray calls (deep in the green) and GTI/TRUL positions, holding the rest for any news event in the coming weeks for sure.
Damn, 7 percent down only in TRUL now. What a day! Let’s keep this pump rolling. Vibe check ?
MSOs aren't heavily shorted at all, complete opposite actually. There's millions of shares available to short on TRUL, GTI. The borrowing rates to short is extremely low - a non factor. Looking at Curaleaf on the TSE ticker and the IB rate 6.69 and there's 186k shares available, this is a stark difference to TRUL and GTI where the rate is around 1% and they have millions of shares available. I could see Curaleaf's move being short-covering because of their debt load and they're probably the worst tier 1 operator. Verano is in the same boat as GTI and TRUL, tons of shares available and the borrow rate is also a non-factor. This is all with IB, perhaps things are different at other brokerages but the good news is that the moves on some of these stocks has nothing to do with short-covering.....
Huh, how? I’m looking at TRUL and the US ticket borrow rate is 1.1…extremely low. And there’s 4.6 million shares available to short?
Yeah I feel this. 4x gets me to an overall break even of 7 years averaging down and cutting losses. I’m trying to keep hold on for the 10X moon shot but the opportunity costs have been so high while my cannabis port has been sooooo low. Friday has me break even on GTI and TRUL. Waiting on CBST and CL to pop, that’s where my degen money is.
Weird to see MSOS rally so hard and minimal gains from TRUL and GTI the last few days despite being the biggest holdings? This rally just reeks of a top with the worst companies, Curaleaf, Verano, CGC (today) rallying the hardest - I'm sure a lot of it is short covering, which would indicate the move isn't sustainable - but we'll see what happens next week. How many times have we seen big moves like this crater in just a few days?
If Florida goes REC … TRUL will go bananas ………
I read it’s sth like 75% already. But anyway, it’s just crazy how much Cash TRUL spent last year on this campaing and apparently is spending again for a potential 2026 ballot. What might change in the next ballot compared to the last in terms of reaching the 60% in your opinion?
if Florda doesnt go rec, it's gonna be hard for TRUL ......
GTI, TRUL, CURA, VRNO, Cresco would all still be substantially bigger in terms of US Biz. I think there's still some that would have a comfortable lead past them as well.
I want to believe that TRUL and GTI are both solid companies with great revenue generation that can survive and even thrive in the status-quo regulatory environment without rescheduling. Despite losing 90% of my money on cannabis stocks in the past, I feel like there’s a chance here to recover. My heart wants to buy more, my brain says I’m an idiot.
Look them up on HITI, SNDL, TLRY, VFF, PLNH, TRUL and so on. They have recent holds on all those names. If I am not mistaken, this might be Tipranks' in-house "AI" analyst they were recently touting? Sorry - it won't let me post a link for some reason but try Googling it and it should come up.
I was trying to estimate the same thing earlier and came to the usual conclusion that none of us know anything and its just a coin flip. That said, TRUL was at $19CAD on pure speculation leading to the elections, as just one example. I would hope that certainty around regulatory action would bring back that kind of pricing at a minimum.
Green thumb up 3.5%. TRUL up 8%, im very thankful, so don't get me wrong, but why are we talking like they went up 50% today. Y'all blue balled me😂
The amount of TRUL I've bought \~$5 and GTII \~$7 and CURA \~$1 is going to either make me rich asf or broke asf
MM's trying to spur up some bidding action here with a bunch of wash trades on MSO but it's G7 week, and with a ramped up war in the middle east ... Hmmm, just not sure what they can do without a BIG ticket, headline news item TRUL sitting with a gap at $4.68 seems like a logical direction this week. If you need to own some, that's where I'd be looking next ..
Remember the TRUL loophouse short report? We are lower than when that came out... let that sink in
Well I was waiting for $5 [TRUL.CN](http://TRUL.CN) but based on how weak we are, I think I shall wait till $4.50. Added a ton of $GTII.CN yesterday at $6.98 and TSND 2 days ago at 0.385 and already down.
I think most of the tier ones will be fine and will actually benefit from the consolidation. GTI, TRUL, Cresco mainly.
Can we all go and find that SOB who dumps TRUL every day at the close please? They need to be cast away forever.
I hold at Aug 2024 prices MO 52 GTI 10 CRL 1.5 TRUL 9ish MAPS .9_
My averages are so fucked , TRUL at $23, AYR at $4.50 and VRNO at $5.. RIP my portfolio.. not to forget MSOX 90% down from the pre-split.
Ya I hold GTI and Trul as well. I like GTI TRUL CL in no particular order. Cura should be literally close to 0 they are beyond dog shit.
yeah not sure when to average down further, only confident in TRUL or GTII. I have big VRNO and AYR bags that I don't want to sink further.
TRUL average at $23, wanted to bite 4k more shares at $4.50 but didn't. Didn't want to add to dead money but well let's see if this is a fake out or something real that I can average down to.
Yikes! Before I could get to CGC, I did that with TRUL, GTII, CURA, and Cresco.
5 usd? I got 6050 TRUL at 20 cad... Ayr at 4.5 cad... Verano at 13 cad.. Truly fucked.
Would you buy TRUL or GTII at these prices?