Reddit Posts
Beacon Analyst update on Re-Schedule and SAFER
NY Times - More than one-fifth of people who use cannabis struggle with dependency or problematic use, according to Journal of AMA
Safe Banking Act Timeline and Implications
Discussion with TER, TRUL, VRNO LFLY tomorrow
Mentions
Hey! That works for TRUL and Cresco, too!
Hmm, not if this afternoon's bump will be sustained in the medium term. It's not on large volume, and based off another rumour. As we stand at 3:05 TRUL is at 80% avg daily volume, GTI is at 75% avg daily volume, MSOS at 85% avg daily volume. All 3 are now on hourly uptrends though, which is good to see
Whats frustrating is that the other CEOs seem to be in DC trying to influence things and he hides behind twitter making comments. He should be putting his money and actions to work on behalf of shareholders instead of this nonsense. Kim, Charlie and Boris all seem to be active and hence why my money is on them. I ditched my GTI for TRUL when the value was obviously there.
TRUL have a better share structure, MC and CEO. CURA is listed on a better exchange and EU exposure. I like TRUL more but I hold both. Why not sell half and buy TRUL.
Sell CURA for TRUL? 🤔 Only have about $3.8k (38% of that is growth) 🤔
TRUL turned on the rocket boosters just now. Nice to see!
You can’t compare their share price increase because there’s a multitude of factors that determine how the dead cat bounce will be played. If they were all healthy companies with relatively similar growth, like many of the MSOs, then sure. But the classic LPs are all over the place. If you look at some bigger MSOs, they’re all up about 100% over the last 52 weeks. TRUL is up a little more (130%) but it’s possible that FL legalization going on the ballot had an impact there, or that it was simply a little more down before the run up.
Right? The rationalizations and sunk cost fallacies some of our fellow sub-members are subjecting themselves to… There are clearly better companies for your MJ exposure, gang. For the love of god, just buy GTI/TRUL/VRNO - or MSOS if you don’t want the concentration risk.
I got mostly out of Cresco down to 1k shares and popped it in TRUL and GTI. I would also still enjoy a $16/share but I can make money while I'm waiting and if it shows signs of life get back in.
Mine is 82,25% GTI and the other part....TRUL. good baby.
Haven't done this in a long time. Tbh, strange time do so for me as I'm currently actively swing trading a number of position due to current sector volatility. Which means some of my allocations are either smaller (e.g., SNDL may grow) or larger (e.g., GTI) than target allocation based on where I am in the swing. And others aren't usually part of my portfolio at all but are there temporarily as a swing (AYR). Anyway, here goes: GTI 57% VRNO 13% CRON 10% AYR 8% TRUL 5% CURA 3% SNDL. 3%
Informative thread on Ohio AU. Summary below: GTI: 8 stores, T1 grow Cresco: 8 stores, T1 grow CC: 8 stores, T1 grow ACRG: 8 stores, T1 grow Vext: 7 stores, T1 grow AYR: 6 stores, T1 grow VRNO: 6 stores, T2 grow AWH: 6 stores, T2 grow Cura: 5 stores, T1 grow Jushi: 2 stores, T2 grow TRUL: 2 stores MRMD: 2 stores https://x.com/cannavestments/status/1762539937893618118?s=46
Comment volume spike Imagine when individual tickers like GTII, CURA or TRUL get found out by the broader public. If money could flow into those names like it has to the LPs the last few weeks, I'll look down on earth through the red haze of mars.
GTII, TRUL. Sell one week after DEA Schedule 3 announcement. You're welcome
Here's an updated chart of Assets Under Management over time... not too far from all time highs. [https://ibb.co/THrZwMT](https://ibb.co/THrZwMT) If we could ever get money flowing directly into the underlyings that would help... I think things could move very quickly if that were to happen. Otherwise I believe we are pretty dependent on MSOS and the creation process to move everything up... which is likely a more gradual process and tough to get any crazy FOMO runs happening... but who knows? But I do think more money will find its way into the holdings if we ever get big news that makes uplisting likely. Greed and money trump everything in this game, so I can't see everyone patiently waiting for actual uplisting to enter directly into GTI, TRUL, etc. Definitely not an authority on any of this... just my amateur level thoughts.
90k in TLRY 5.5k in TRUL 🤡
Glad I bought some TRUL. Sad I didn’t buy enough.
TRUL up 155% YTD … that’s … 3 months
I closed my position in ACB to increase my exposure in TRUL as a gamble on the Florida ballot on April 1. Super exited by the ruling, not so much by the price action. ACB 60% since, TRUL -3%. FML 🤦
For perspective people. TRUL is up 140% YTD. It dropped 25% in early to mid February. We can be doom and gloom if it does that again.
TRUL is up 140% YTD It’s down 2.54% today What sell the fact is playing out perfectly right now.
WTF, TRUL... what the fuck is wrong with this sector?
3k shares of TRUL and 10k of AYR, lock and load guys!
I can’t believe it’s TRUL!
I even closed some other positions and moved into TRUL. Maybe not the smartest move, but I do like a nice gamble from time to time.
Overweight TRUL also. My strategy is to hold and at 4pm i clench my butthole real hard.
Short term it’s all on the 4pm Florida ruling, a part of me is considering moving out of my Florida names and into MSOs with less Florida exposure as a hedge. I’m currently overweight TRUL, and could add to GTII. Thought being we still get upside but not as much downside if things don’t go as expected… Anyone else have any strategies for this?
Will that be TRUL share price?
I would live to do that. But here is my story. I own 4500 VFF @ 6.9$, and just bought another 1000 at $1.25. I own $CLOV 6000 @7.55 . I own $AMC @ 19.25 average (after RS). Recently bought 100 shares of $TRUL and 100 shares of $GTII. So now out of money! I don't know but ,i am not going to loose till any one of it is bankrupt. Money is the problem otherwise j would bring my TLRY to $5 even. I have been in space since late 2017.
Full list of public operators: GTI: 8 stores, T1 grow Cresco: 8 stores, T1 grow CC: 8 stores, T1 grow ACRG: 8 stores, T1 grow Vext: 7 stores, T1 grow AYR: 6 stores, T1 grow VRNO: 6 stores, T2 grow AWH: 6 stores, T2 grow Cura: 5 stores, T1 grow Jushi: 2 stores, T2 grow TRUL: 2 stores MRMD: 2 stores
I sold CGC pre split in the high 0.60 cents 🤣 I don’t regret it … not unless CURA and TRUL fail to deliver.
Yes I'm hoping TRUL makes my original post age like milk!
TRUL a little underwhelming rn. AYR looked like the better choice I guess.
Kinda cool to see such an immediate reaction from the US weed stocks. TRUL is truly blasting off.
Should TRUL run now? Or is there still a chance we get screwed w Florida
Yeah I'm not sure if it will be sell the news or not. I'm up 108% on TRUL and not selling April. But that's just me
in these times, I'm happy to have had the vision to invest in both LP and MSOS in the last years. Just sold a huge chunk of my long OGI (50%) today. I feel this will consolidate and help keep me not too much heavy in weedstocks. So much of my portfolio in GTII/TRUL, feels crazy to have add the opportunity to add at crazy prices like 8-9$ when I was feeling "lucky" to buy these at 20$+. Let's hope DEA stop snoozing soon, even if I'm particuliary fine waiting a few more weeks of these healthy consolidation moves. It may still continue to move in a healthy way until the big pop, wouldn't surprise me to see these going back to 40$+. Recommanding everyone to have a sound exit plan with reasonable expectation. Will probably sell 33% of my position when I'm up 50-60%, 33% when I'm up 100%+ and keep the rest long term. Seems to me there's also alot of money to be made in speculative stocks.
TRUL also doesn't do well in high competition states with compression thus them exiting markets.
Yep. And it's pretty simple: Hit sell as fast as possible on my calls expiring before 2025 once Tilray reaches about $5, MSOS about $30, and CRON about $4. Hold the rest until they either stabilize (and then sell roughly 50% of my remaining positions) or double from there (sell roughly 75% of options, sell most shares, but hold a few hundred TLRY, GTI, and TRUL shares to sell covered calls).
Bought some more CL and TRUL on the EOD dip LFGGG
You were talking about LPs and saying TLRY is the only real LP. I'm not comparing LPs to TRUL. I was just asking why you ignore all the other LPs that have financials that indicate they will survive. I'm assuming you just haven't looked into LPs in years, if you're only looking at CGC and TLRY. Idk what the past has to do with their current financial situation anyway. The entire point is to find the bottom. Trulieve destroyed shareholder value too lol We're talking about current valuations and current financials. Go look at ACB's financials and explain why you think they would be diluting anytime soon.
Anyone else down 71% on TRUL? Asking for a friend…
What’s wrong with TRUL? 🤔 florida rec incoming unless their SC ruins things in the next 7 days.
Healthy consolidation today for TRUL. I’m happy with this week’s action.
I put 10k split into CURA and TRUL more in TRUL. I put 10k into TLRY. Benefit from both. Can’t time things for shit. Tilray dropped a decent amount after I bought. Now I’m up 23% 🤷♂️but I won’t sell and be back to negative next month lol
TRUL. GTII. CURA. CL. HITI. TLRY. CGC for memes
MSOS is the ETF, MSOs are multi state operators like GTII and TRUL
What’s there to talk about? We’ve known this for months. It’s a wait and see game. Desantis said he expected they’d allow the ballot measure and we say price action on TRUL ever since.
Got into CGC and Cresco this week. Even though CGC ain't the best company I knew it would soar the quickest upon any news. Just built different. Lookin to buy into perhaps TRUL and CURA tomorrow. And then we wait!!!
I sold my HMUS at a good profit as soon as I heard the ETF was closing. I just mimic MSOS in stocks, so I hold GTII, CURA, CL, VRNO, AYR and TRUL in my canadian TFSA and regular trading accounts.
Hey mods can I please get the flair "My Mortgage on TRUL" Thank you.
Kept nibbling at CBST while my TRUL and OGI had a nice bump.. Nice/rare days to be in the double digits percetnage lol Interesting TDR interview with the CBST boys, some cryptic messages about the former CEO and other dilution issues. Hopefully we get a massive greasy gap up soon as I think the dust is settling on their outlook and strategy.... will gladly take a vrno like uptick from today on Monday
Expected price for TRUL if we get Sched 3 and its on the Florida ballet?
Topped up my TRUL, please don't fuck me again for the 10000th time
On a positive note, nothing serious is priced in at these levels. Maybe some Florida rec legalization potential with TRUL and GTII has a nice premium for its strong balance sheet.
I'm thinking "market" is back to sniffing out balance sheet strength/weakness. Cresco with huge debt/CURLF as well. GTII has a natural floor with share buybacks, TRUL looking sold as well.
Wait, what? I thought Curaleaf was the big bad boogieman in this industry, according to people here. Look, Boris is totally a smooth talker, and he’s got a lot of shit wrong in the past. Definitely take everything he has with a grain of salt. But when the rubber finally hits the road, he’s going to be like Bruce Linton 2.0. The entire sector is going to want this guy in your corner. You like TRUL over CURA? Doesn’t matter, Boris is going to sell your shares for you at a juicy profit. He’s not my guy, he’s *our* guy. I hate putting people on a pedestal, so that’s not my intention. Just believe that he’s going to punch above his weight when the time comes. GLTA
I'm at the point where I'm trickling in a little money to GTI and TRUL each payday regardless of share price. Will probably continue until we get uplisting or reschedule
Bought a bit more GTI because of the share buy back, just not sure they aren’t waiting for sub $10. I’m thinking Trulieve and a couple other MSOs are going to re-rate by April 1. I didn’t expect Trulieve to bounce so quickly from $9 today. If Trulieve drops below $9 again, I’ll sell more MSOS and buy more TRUL. I’ve also been selling too many MSOX Apr 19 Puts.
Ideally, you're taking profit (rather than a loss). In which case there is no wash sale. One option would be to manage the investment in a tax sheltered account. No wash sale rules there. If this is a taxable trade on an underwater position, simply rotate GTI to TRUL. Or VRNO to MSOS. Just some examples.
The thing that depresses me most is my entry was a complete and utter waste of money. Makes me pretty angry the fact that anyone buying in now (or much lower) are the ones that actually make money. All my buys in the past 3 years was really just flushing money down the toilet. I'll never make money on that investment cuz the reality is I just don't see any of the names ever going back to all time highs. MAYBE TRUL and GTII but that's pretty much it. Ppl will say sure buy now and you'll make it back but that opportunity cost of the last three years was downright crippling. Fuck everything
>Excellent buying opportunity for MSOS. I’m tempted for some calls. The pullback this week is just ok. I wasn’t 100% comfortable averaging up on CL at 20$ but the 15$ zone was comfortable enough to buy more! Let’s GOOOOOO! No position on MSOS yet but have one in CL, GTI, TRUL, AYR, Columbia Care, an CL warrants RIP bro.
I’m just saying that they’re carrying nearly 6x debt against their available cash and receivables, which is likely why they’re showing weakness against the likes of TRUL. If they have to raise in the near term, shareholders will pay a heavy price. And they’re also taking pretty major D&A charges, making their financials even more vulnerable. We’ll see if their positions have improved when they release on Mar. 13 but I’m personally expecting a drop, assuming no external sector news.
Anyone know why Questrade shows different closing prices to Yahoo finance and Google? TRUL closed at 14.05 on qtrade and 14.17 everywhere else
I’ve been in the space for many years and Verano has not been public as long as some of the notable companies. I think that has something to do with it, less legacy familiarity and understanding. I’m guilty of this myself, I hear they are a fine company but I’ve never done the DD, whereas I’ve owned GTI TRUL CL CURA on and off for years. I just understand thier businesses better. I think some of it as well is the fact Verano went public right during market ATH and the nameless sub madness and did nothing but slide for 2.5 years. No warm and fuzzy memories of owning Trulieve at 69CAD, which I did by the way.
It was certainly one of the main things that gave me pause about TRUL over the last couple years (have built a position in the last 6 months).
Bought some GTII but TRUL plummeted just as I put some for sale 😒
Same here Maybe a few TRUL shares to keep long term but that’s it
I honestly cant wait to be fucking out of this sector forever. Even on reschedule news I'm out forever. Not one of these names are worth holding long term. Fuck this sector. You gotta be watching the tickers minute by minute to make money. Last time I looked TRUL and GTII were up nicely. Now they finished red. WTF happened i took my eyes off for like an hour
Call me crazy, but I bought GTII and TRUL on this dip
Keep up the insults it’s really cementing your point. No arguments from you whatsoever. You’re in too deep with TRUL. I get it. You’re a little stressed investing in a company that can’t make money selling drugs.
Still hanging onto my Cresco. Very happy with my TRUL and GTI
Earnings preview ATB - Top three this week: Reminder- MSO Earnings start this week with GTII on Weds and TRUL and VRNO on Thursday. GTII (After Market Close on Weds) - We forecast Q4/23e revenue of $270.2mm (consensus: $270.5mm) reflecting a decline of 1.9% q/q (versus guidance for a q/q decline in the low-single digits), gross profit of $129.7mm (consensus: $131.1mm) for a margin of 48.0% (consensus: 48.5%), and adj. EBITDA of $81.7mm (consensus: $79.8mm) for a margin of 30.2% (consensus: 29.5%). Guidance: The Company has guided to a low-single digit revenue decline in Q4/23e due to seasonal and pricing pressures, partly offset by a second full-quarter contribution from adult-use sales in Maryland and the ramp of sales at newly opened dispensaries. For full year 2023, management guided for: (i) the opening of another four stores in Florida, and one in New York (on the state retail cap of four, the Company can add one more store in New York), for a total national retail footprint of 92 exiting the year (which is net of one recently closed Massachusetts location); and (ii) CapEx bracketing $230.0mm, with roughly $50.0mm remaining for Q4/23e ($183.6mm has been spent year-to-date in 2023). TRUL- (Before Market open on Thurs) - We expect Q4/23e revenue of $268.3mm (consensus: $268.1mm) for a sequential decline of 2.5%, gross profit of $135.5mm (consensus: $135.6mm) for a margin of 50.5% (consensus: 50.6%), and adj. EBITDA of $75.3mm (consensus: $71.8mm) for a margin of 28.1% (consensus: 26.8%). On seasonal pressures in the fourth quarter (increased promotional competition) and the potential that contribution from the Ohio VIE will be deconsolidated going forward, the Company has guided to a low single digit revenue decline in Q4/23e. In combination with interest cost savings from early debt repayment and a more aggressive 280E tax strategy, we project Trulieve will exit 2023e with a cash balance of $101.2mm (and exit 2024e with a cash balance of $209.8mm). VRNO- (Before Market open on Thurs) - expect Q4/23e revenue of $230.6mm (consensus: $234.6mm), gross profit of $111.9mm (consensus: $118.7mm) for a margin of48.5% (consensus: 50.6%), and adj. EBITDA of $67.3mm (consensus: $74.0mm) for a margin of 29.2% (consensus: 31.5%). Guidance: The Company anticipates a low- to mid-single digit q/q revenue decline in Q4/23. For full year 2023, the Company has guided for: (i) FCF of $72mm-$76mm (from $65.0mm-$75.0mm); and (ii) capex of $30mm- $37mm (from $35.0mm-$50.0mm), which implies Q4/23e FCF of $21.1mm-$25.1mm and capex of $3.5mm-$10.5mm
My focus has been much more on industry catalysts than the particulars of financials. I hold GTII because they are the first to be cash flow positive and TRUL because of their Florida concentration and upcoming ballot initiative for rec. I have heard Kim Rivers speak and am very impressed by her. I hold a small amount of Cresco as well. Someone commented previously that the comments on future growth and strategy will be very important from these earnings calls because of all the pending catalysts, so I am looking forward to that.
What happens April 1st? Sorry, been off this board for years, still own some TRUL and AYR
First mover advantage for TRUL will be very beneficial to them if Florida goes recreational. You can't understate the current manufacturing capacity they have.
I don't know what their market share was to start with but current 40% medical share is going to translate very nicely to recreational share as well. Assuming they can sell recreational from same medical locations. If not they'll still maintain a decent margin due to first mover advantage. It would also be a little disingenuous to say TRUL is losing market share as the market continues to expand and grow. 40% of a $2 billion market is still less money than 20% of a $6 billion recreational market (Yes I'm pulling numbers out of the sky right now just for illustrative purposes). They'll be fine even if there is a dip in overall market share with recreational sales, as long as the overall market size continues to grow the revenue will continue to grow.
MJUS must be feeling like idiots after selling off pretty much 75% of their TRUL position only a few days back 😂
The MJUS behaviour last week was so suspect. They gutted their TRUL position at the same time as major short covering on the stock. Then rotated into ACB? They must have lost 10s to 100s of millions for investors
Cresco is undervalued compared to its peers, especially GTII and TRUL
I'm debating selling all my cresco for a small gain and averaging up in TRUL and GTI..
So sell them and buy TRUL and GTII. If you’ve lost confidence why remain invested? I lost confidence in CGC. Sold. Bought CURA. I haven’t lost confidence in Tilray. Not yet. I remain invested.
Everyone says on DEA announcement TLRY and CGC will run hard. Honestly? I dont think so. Not anymore. I think these two cash burning dumpster fires have been finally exposed and investors dont want to touch. For good reason. Sure will get slight bumps here and there from traders but who the fuck would actually invest in these companies. MSOS or bust. Debating on selling for a loss (a big one) and moving all over to TRUL and GTII. fucken garbage LPS what a joke
I swapped all my TLRY stocks for TRUL.CN on Jan 31st and I have made more gains with this move than I've made in my entire past 2 years invested with TLRY.
I swapped all my TLRY stocks for TRUL.CN on Jan 31st and I have made more gains with this move than I've made in my entire past 2 years invested with TLRY.
I own CURA and TRUL as well. Sold CGC for CURA and put new money into both.
I don't get it either but took that chance to accumulate some more TRUL
Anyone know why National Bank has been constantly selling TRUL and CL the past couple of days.
They trimmed almost 50% of their TRUL position… WTF? In a day no less! This is wreckless behaviour lmao
THCX is now 100% cash as of today. So they liquidated the last 35% of their assets (so like 5m in stock) since Monday. HMUS is the last one with shares, though the data there is old (as of Feb 9). They don't have a lot, but it might be enough to lead to a bad day if they dump it all at once. Like 500k USD of shares in TRUL, Cresco, Cura, Verano, etc etc. https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/comments/1apob4h/daily_discussion_thread_february_13_2024/kqb2e9e/
Man, talk about volatility. And TRUL baby, what is you doing?! Guessing more selling by the ETF today smh
Yup, saving the rest of my cash for any further pull back on TRUL too. Under $11CAD and I’m buying, even though I would be averaging up.
Wonder if MSOS is gonna offset the TRUL selloff. Seems like a no brainer.
MJUS dumped another 300,000 of TRUL.
Looks like I might get my TRUL under $10 cad after all!
While TRUL was down 13% and MSOS down 8.5% i count it as a very green day
Holy shit i just saw TRUL and CL. What happened yesterday?