UDN
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
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A mid-Month Review: Technical Snapshots & Trade Journal so far for August 2023
Still long $UDN and bearish on US Dollar until Fed stops raising and yield curve un-inverts.
Question about recent politics (debt limit) and investing
At least 6 more bull months, based on JPow's speech
My most degenerate possible upcoming YOLO.
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Idk I once had some calls on UDN posted it here and everyone said to sell and I didn’t using this same logic and it turns out everyone was right and I was wrong…
they probably just wanted something that was like catchy you know... I mean my justification was that China would be cutting us off from rare Earth minerals because Donald Trump would start a trade war with China, and we would have an acceleration of the global macroeconomic trends that have been taking place over the last decade which could be compressed into several years... such as dedollarization, money printing, massive political instability leading nations to acquire lots of defense products. coupled with the fact the United States is rebuilding our entire nuclear arsenal but does not have enough uranium to complete the task, which means that there needs to be a massive increase in uranium mining. Russia used to be our top source for enriched uranium for nuclear plants, but that's no longer an option... in Jan/Feb my core position moved to EUAD, KDEF, ITA, SMH, XME, GLD, SPY, UDN. With some other fun stuff like Uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu stock
Did you find a solution in the end? I'm in a very similar boat and trying to figure out how to approach this. These are some of the options I considered, but decided against for included reasons 1) buy EURO stocks/ETF -> don't want to get myself into additional taxation 2) set up EU legal entity and invest through this -> same reason as #1 3) buy S&P euro hedged ETF -> none are USA domiciled, causing substantial tax burden The only reasonable options I have come across, and moved some of my USD into are UDN and FXE. Super interested to understand if you found something better
Have you considered taking a position in UDN? It's an inverse USD index
UDN. It has better yields than HYSA at 4.5%. And, as the dollar is falling, UDN is going up
Via which instrument? UDN/UUP options has been useless for most of the year.
They have 100% already decided to buy in to UDN.
UDN: The investment seeks to track the changes, whether positive or negative, in the level of the Deutsche Bank Short U.S. Dollar Index Futures Index. The index reflects the changes in market value over time, whether positive or negative, of a short position in the DX Contract which expires during the months of March, June, September and December. The fund seeks to track the index by establishing short positions in DX Contracts. DX Contracts are linked to the six underlying currencies, or the index currencies, of the U.S. Dollar index (USDX®), or the USDX®. The index currencies are Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc. They hold AGPXX and short it. They have to pay out from their holdings. But, if you look at the overall performance of UDN (-.68%), they are losing nearly all of that income for you. AGPXX Invest in short- term, high-credit-quality money market instruments, including direct obligations of the U.S. Treasury and other securities issued or guaranteed as to principal and interest by the U.S. Government or by its agencies or instrumentalities, as well as repurchase agreements secured by such obligations.
Lol, I am not going to blindly listen to advise from an anonymous user. Besides, I have learned a lot more from this discussion and have a strategy to prepare for the dollar collapse, involving UDN and more.
No it won't. It will perform worse. Funds like this experience drag over the long term due to the cost of the premiums involved in maintaining their positions. [For comparison, go look at UUP, the "bullish" fund that is the counterpart to UDN.](https://totalrealreturns.com/s/UDN,UUP) Scroll down to the annual returns chart. You will notice that there are a lot of years where **both** UDN and UUP are down. That is because the cost of continually maintaining the positions these funds execute on is a drag on both of these funds. That drag is why buying funds like these is incredibly stupid unless you know exactly what you're doing. You very clearly don't. As a result, this is not a thing you should be touching.
What is the difference betwen UDN and a basket of foreign currencies? If you plot them on a graph over 20 years like you did, it will look the same, since the US has been outperforming other nations. Until this year.
[Here is their information page.](https://www.invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/product-detail?audienceType=Investor&ticker=UDN) [Here is their prospectus.](https://connect.rightprospectus.com/Invesco/TVT/46141D104/P?site=ETF) If you don't understand where the dividend is coming from, you have no goddamn business touching this thing. I will be even blunter: this thing is [a steaming pile of shit and will just lose you money](https://totalrealreturns.com/s/VFINX,VBMFX,USDOLLAR,UDN). The actual target audience is not buying and holding this product. They dip into it for a day or a week to hedge forex trades or business transactions. It is one of those financial industry products that exists despite the fact that it is known to be a long term loser because it serves a purpose in short term transaction hedging. Do not touch this product. You are not the target audience, it is not for you, and you should not be "investing" in it. If you want to hedge against a "dollar collapse" 🙄 just do what everyone else that's worried about the "dollar collapse" does and buy precious metals or real estate or bitcoin or foreign stocks+bonds.
Not sure in this case but other bear funds use future contracts to take up a short position , from my understanding they must post collateral on these contracts and that collateral are usually treasuries or something that earns interest And due to USA tax law any interest or dividends must be paid out for tax reasons So if you look at the holdings here you can see they have collateral [https://www.invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/holdings?audienceType=Investor&ticker=UDN](https://www.invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/holdings?audienceType=Investor&ticker=UDN) This collateral earns some amount of interest what needs to be distributed to the fund holders
You could just buy FXE or UDN
With the last CPI and especially PPI numbers, combined with the unemployment rate, the Fed should absolutely rate hike. It's not going to happen though, because of politics (thankfully, my UDN calls would be cooked if they did that). You have 7 governors of the Fed, next Fed meeting 3 of them are locked into voting for a rate cut due to party allegiance, no way the other 4 of them vote for a hike. Even of the Fed just holds steady and we get a split 4-3 vote (something that has never happened before in the history of the Fed), the 3 dissenting governors are going to be very public about their dissension and will be going on media tours talking about how the 4 other governors are "playing politics" by not cutting; even though the opposite will be the truth - the current GOP is built on lies, hypocrisy, and leveraging their messaging through total domination of the media after all. The market expects a rate cut in September, not because it's rational or right, but because politically the Gang of Pedophiles (GOP) believes that the Party can benefit from the short term boost to Wall Street a rate cut is expected to provide. The Gang of Pedophiles cares not for long term consequences or how inflation impacts working Americans; but they feel a rate cut at this time would be like a crashing out frat boy snorting a line of coke, and just like Kash Patel, The Party is feining for that bump. The Fed could go either way; rate cut or hold steady - Powell will want to hold, but next meeting it will come down to the votes on the board and that's impossible to figure out right now (we might get better insight from Jackson Hole). The board of governors may bow to political pressure from the Group of Pedophiles, or they may hold firm in order to stave off inflation. One thing is for sure though, there is a snowball's chance in hell they actually rate hike even though the current economic situation really demands that they do; a hike just isn't plausible given the current political environment.
I'm 4 months late to this post, and just thinking 'out loud.' but Miran is now headed to the fed so I'm googling around for good ideas for how US persons can invest (with Trump trying to devalue USD) and saw this post. I'm open-minded and it has done well over the past few months... did you find any other positions that complement holding UDN or in place of UDN? I'm thinking of perhaps diversifying with emerging market ETFs might be good, though maybe not if there is global economic downturn...
Yes, lots of ways. Easiest is probably to buy an inverse dollar ETF, which will long the underlying basket of DXY currencies and short the USD Something like UDN by Invesco. It’s up 12% YTD
Honestly I am more confident in my FXE euro ETF up 3% and my UDN bearish dollar ETF continuing to go up nonstop as the dollar devalues, than I am in any of my stocks.
$INTC [https://wccftech.com/the-trump-administration-is-demanding-that-taiwan-acquire-a-huge-stake-in-intel-for-a-trade-deal/](https://wccftech.com/the-trump-administration-is-demanding-that-taiwan-acquire-a-huge-stake-in-intel-for-a-trade-deal/) >**The Trump Administration Is Reportedly Demanding That Taiwan Acquire a Huge Stake in Intel for a Trade Deal to Lower Tariff Rates, Potentially Giving the American Chipmaker a New Lifeline** Aug 5, 2025 at 05:47am EDT It seems like the US government is focused on Intel getting back on track, as the chipmaker has been part of the ongoing trade negotiations with Taiwan. >Before we dive into this, it is essential to take this rumor with a grain of salt, considering that information within the Taiwanese supply chain tends to change dramatically. Based on a report by UDN, it is claimed that the Trump administration is looking for a breakthrough for Intel, and they are demanding that Taiwan get a 49% stake in Intel, in order for the trade deal to proceed further. More importantly, the other option is to invest $400 billion into the US, which is a much more costly venture, so for Taiwan and TSMC, an Intel stake acquisition actually makes sense here. [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/trump-tariffs-chips-semiconductors.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/trump-tariffs-chips-semiconductors.html) >**Trump says new semiconductor tariff plan coming as soon as next week** >Published Tue, Aug 5 20258:42 AM EDT Updated 43 Min Ago >\* President Donald Trump said he will unveil new tariffs on semiconductors and chips as soon as next week. >\* “We’re going to be announcing on semiconductors and chips ... because we want them made in the United States,” Trump said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” > >“We’re going to be announcing on semiconductors and chips, which is a separate category, because we want them made in the United States,” Trump said during a [lengthy interview](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/president-donald-trump-to-join-squawk-box-at-8-am-et.html) on CNBC’s “[Squawk Box](https://www.cnbc.com/squawk-box-us/).” >Trump said that that announcement will come “within the next week or so.” He did not provide other details about the plan.
$INTC [https://wccftech.com/the-trump-administration-is-demanding-that-taiwan-acquire-a-huge-stake-in-intel-for-a-trade-deal/](https://wccftech.com/the-trump-administration-is-demanding-that-taiwan-acquire-a-huge-stake-in-intel-for-a-trade-deal/) >**The Trump Administration Is Reportedly Demanding That Taiwan Acquire a Huge Stake in Intel for a Trade Deal to Lower Tariff Rates, Potentially Giving the American Chipmaker a New Lifeline** Aug 5, 2025 at 05:47am EDT It seems like the US government is focused on Intel getting back on track, as the chipmaker has been part of the ongoing trade negotiations with Taiwan. >Before we dive into this, it is essential to take this rumor with a grain of salt, considering that information within the Taiwanese supply chain tends to change dramatically. Based on a report by UDN, it is claimed that the Trump administration is looking for a breakthrough for Intel, and they are demanding that Taiwan get a 49% stake in Intel, in order for the trade deal to proceed further. More importantly, the other option is to invest $400 billion into the US, which is a much more costly venture, so for Taiwan and TSMC, an Intel stake acquisition actually makes sense here. [https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/trump-tariffs-chips-semiconductors.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/trump-tariffs-chips-semiconductors.html) >**Trump says new semiconductor tariff plan coming as soon as next week** >Published Tue, Aug 5 20258:42 AM EDT Updated 43 Min Ago >\* President Donald Trump said he will unveil new tariffs on semiconductors and chips as soon as next week. >\* “We’re going to be announcing on semiconductors and chips ... because we want them made in the United States,” Trump said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” > >“We’re going to be announcing on semiconductors and chips, which is a separate category, because we want them made in the United States,” Trump said during a [lengthy interview](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/05/president-donald-trump-to-join-squawk-box-at-8-am-et.html) on CNBC’s “[Squawk Box](https://www.cnbc.com/squawk-box-us/).” >Trump said that that announcement will come “within the next week or so.” He did not provide other details about the plan.
$INTC [https://wccftech.com/the-trump-administration-is-demanding-that-taiwan-acquire-a-huge-stake-in-intel-for-a-trade-deal/](https://wccftech.com/the-trump-administration-is-demanding-that-taiwan-acquire-a-huge-stake-in-intel-for-a-trade-deal/) >**The Trump Administration Is Reportedly Demanding That Taiwan Acquire a Huge Stake in Intel for a Trade Deal to Lower Tariff Rates, Potentially Giving the American Chipmaker a New Lifeline** Aug 5, 2025 at 05:47am EDT It seems like the US government is focused on Intel getting back on track, as the chipmaker has been part of the ongoing trade negotiations with Taiwan. Before we dive into this, it is essential to take this rumor with a grain of salt, considering that information within the Taiwanese supply chain tends to change dramatically. Based on a report by UDN, it is claimed that the Trump administration is looking for a breakthrough for Intel, and they are demanding that Taiwan get a 49% stake in Intel, in order for the trade deal to proceed further. More importantly, the other option is to invest $400 billion into the US, which is a much more costly venture, so for Taiwan and TSMC, an Intel stake acquisition actually makes sense here. [https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-ofZqiqLVqM](https://www.youtube.com/shorts/-ofZqiqLVqM) >**President Trump told CNBC that** [**tariffs on chips**](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/04/stock-market-today-live-updates.html#108181632-_4Ejc0jYV)**, as well as pharmaceuticals, were coming soon.** Aug 5 202510:17 AM EDT >“We’re going to be announcing on semiconductors and chips, which is a separate category, because we want them made in the United States,” Trump said, adding that he’ll announce the new plan “within the next week or so.”
**Claim**: The Trump administration is reportedly demanding Taiwan acquire a 49% stake in Intel or invest $400 billion in the U.S. to secure a trade deal lowering tariff rates to 15%. **Evidence**: - [1] Claims the Trump administration seeks Taiwan’s acquisition of a 49% stake in Intel or a $400 billion U.S. investment to advance trade negotiations, aiming to lower tariffs to 15%. - [2] Notes newly imposed 20% tariffs on Taiwan do not yet target semiconductors or AI products, though Section 232 investigations could lead to future chip-specific tariffs (20%–50%). - [3] Highlights Trump’s history of leveraging tariffs (e.g., 35% on Canada, 50% on Brazil) to pressure trade partners into financial commitments, though no direct mention of Taiwan-Intel negotiations. **Analysis**: - **No Official Confirmation**: The claim hinges on an unverified report from Taiwanese media (UDN) cited in [1], with no corroboration from U.S. government sources or official statements. - **Contextual Inconsistencies**: While [3] confirms Trump’s tariff tactics, demanding a foreign government acquire equity in a major U.S. semiconductor firm (Intel) is unprecedented and legally complex (CFIUS reviews). - **Speculative Nature**: Source [2] focuses on tariffs exempting chips, undermining the urgency of the alleged Intel-Taiwan deal. **Sources**: [1] https://wccftech.com/the-trump-administration-is-demanding-that-taiwan-acquire-a-huge-stake-in-intel-for-a-trade-deal/ [2] https://wccftech.com/nvidia-ai-servers-are-currently-exempt-from-hefty-us-tariffs-on-taiwan-but-a-threat-still-looms/ [3] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-tariffs-live-updates-pressure-on-to-seal-trade-deals-before-trumps-deadline-200619920.html **Conclusion**: **Misleading**. The claim lacks credible, direct evidence from authoritative sources. While Trump’s tariff history aligns with aggressive trade tactics, the specific demand for Taiwan to acquire Intel shares is uncorroborated and raises logistical and regulatory questions.
Gold is an inverse USD play, and moreso an "inverse global inflation" play. Dollar loses value, gold goes up relatively and costs more dollars. That said, other nations do not WANT a weak dollar relative to their currency, they want to be cheap so we buy their shit. So like the EU did last week, they printed a shitload of money and devalued the euro from 3% up against the dollar to only 1%. This hurt my FXE and UDN, but it didn't hurt gold. Because gold is globally purchased and global inflation doesn't hurt it. That's the "proper" role of a rare commodity. What it is NOT is a hedge against equities and stocks. The more people start trying to use it like that, the more it moves WITH stocks, for example chart GLD on a YTD chart with SPY. Once that starts happening, and eventually happening with a larger impact than inflation hedging, you're in a commodity bubble, where non-fundamental movement is driving the price, and commodity bubbles collapse fast and vicious.
I'm actually retarded about gold, I had just started investing during the very peak of the last gold bubble, and got burnt lol. I actually still have one of the first stocks I ever bought, SLV Silver ETF from then, and right now it's down 20%. After the last gold bubble popped it was down 70%. So I've got FXE and UDN as my bearish USD plays instead of gold, and one singular put on gold at 300 strike in case the dollar doesn't keep devaluing. I was actually profitable on the put last week but then the dollar dipped and gold shot back up lol
I need him out by 8/15 for my UDN calls
UDN is a bearish USD ETF that uses a basket of currency futures against the dollar. Also have FXE for just the Euro, which oddly even pays a dividend lol
and calls on UDN / puts on UUP
BTO some regarded TLT calls in case we go wild here. $100 of insurance for a black swan emergency rate cut ain’t bad Also jumped in UDN. Trend all year has been up. I suspect we continue to devalue the dollar Exports are getting cheaper. Going long CAT here heading into earnings
I have spy puts and UDN calls
Naw they're bearish on the dollar too. I use UDN, the bearish dollar ETF
I’m 99% cash w UDN calls and SPY puts
I got out of gold last night and in pre market with barely a loss at all Most of port is on a T+1 settlement but my RH account was diversified to recession resistant ETFs and a very small amount to some stocks I like. My bigger account is just going to go into short term bonds. I still have UDN calls in case the dollar dies, but otherwise I have no plays at this point. 🍊 and the MMs may have created market equilibrium
Dollar depreciation. Gold ETFs, calls on UDN at various strikes and expirations
Here’s my “ 🍊 Fires Powell” plan: Holding a tremendous amount of gold ETFs 1500 shares of UDN - inverse the US Dollar A lot of UDN 19C 8/15 expiry - I don’t think the MMs are appropriately pricing in firing JP as these calls are cheap. If JP is fired and UDN goes up by only 1.69% then we break even. And JP doesn’t need to be fired, we could see DOJ start a probe, he could resign, we could see renewed tariff nonsense which often hurts the dollar and increases gold, and I think we’re simply in an increasing monetary supply moment w the budget passed and we may simply see more money being printed dropping the USD more. It’s not a yolo meme stock but if the USD drops 5% in a shock this week those UDN calls go through the roof. Also 🍊 is voting the Fed today
I’m holding a lot of gold ETFs in preparation Also bought UDN 19C 8/15 if our currency poops itself I let go of my spy puts this morning without much of a haircut but I think going against the broad market may not work because 🍊 can keep it up by making the dollar worthless
No I get his point, I'm just saying if you want to make a play on that effect directly without the underlying security you can, there's one ETF for it that does bearish dollar futures. Buying a foreign currency future ETF woforeignut you have to pick the right one, UDN is a big basket of them so it's a way to get a "pure" bearish dollar play without having to hold short on something or pick a country.
So buy $UDN : Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
buy $UDN, bearish dollar futures ETF to directly capture dollar pooping without having to pick a specific foreign currency to buy.
You could look into the UUP and UDN ETFs if you want to hedge your cash holdings in either direction. YTD, UDN is up about 12%; however, it's still down 9.5% over the past 5 years after a significant period of strengthening.
So buy $UDN - Invesco DB US Dollar Bearish It's the only inverse dollar ETF (as far as I know anyways)
I shorted it with $UDN, favorite 8% in 6 months I ever made
UDN invesco bearish fund, v UPP invesco bullish fund May take along time, already had a nice run.
UDN tracks a couple of foreign bond funds well. BWZ and BWX I think. They pay divvies differently, so it's not exact.
did math today on whether it’s better to park my cash in $UDN or money market. What a fun thing to get to do.
https://preview.redd.it/hzc3bm9jo6af1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=62b724cf5053a810107176430b8dc1f9bda3108f Cool kids are shorting the dollar $UDN
Check out the $UDN ETF for the same period. Up $2.13 12.69%
I bought UDN this week, perhaps you can do the same if you think USD will flop thi year (as I think too). It is literally Trump policy to devalue the USD, so I am just putting my money where his mouth is.
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN)
I have a very small posn in UDN. A bearish $ ETF. It’s up around 13% year YTD.
Because I was busy watching my $UDN gains hoping they'd go higher.
I'd say buy long-dated UDN calls/UUP puts, but that somehow has not worked for me at all.
I found levereged USD short etf called UDN. Thinking to start buying it. Is there anyone here ahorting with this?
What's the bullish case for USD? Full port UDN beat SPY by 10% since 🌮 started manipulating the market. I think we could test DXY 2 year lows (down 25%) this year.
UUP and UDN seem like fun. 
I bought calls on UDN (long dated) to assuage this anxiety. Also bought a chunk of gdxj and some platinum. Bitcoin or XMR are good if you need to flee the country, so might want to get some of that as well
Yeah: XLY, SMH, SBUX, NFLX, WMT, and calls on UDN (short USD). Probably should short TLT but I don’t have any more gambling money. Dates are about 2-3 months out on most of these. 10-15% OTM
The U.S. dollar is in horrible shape under these clowns. If you aren't hedging your portfolio value baseline by shorting the dollar with either eoy UDN calls or UUP puts, what are you even doing.
My moves tomorrow? Sell all my bleeding SPY and AAPL puts. It's clear this idiot is just going to gradually give in to these dumb tariffs with exemptions eventually to all major industries as the crypto bribes roll in. Focus instead on GLD leaps, and December UDN calls.
Yolo UDN (US dollar bear etf) calls.
I'm using UDN, which is a bear ETF of USD vs. a basket of other major currencies. Gives you at least a way to hedge the dollar relative to the rest of the globe.
Too expensive imo. Need a better entry. I have been loading calls on UDN (inverse dxy), but i need cheaper puts to feel comfortable that i won’t get rekt
Seriously Pepe, I gonna kick back in SPAXX, UDN and rip six packs and burritos with my monopoly money on my burner phone.
Just cash now with long dated calls on UDN (short dxy). No good way to play this nonsense
The only things I’m long on at the moment is platinum and UDN.
The Invesco currency ETFs for several currencies also earn some interest: FXE (Euros), FXA (Australia), FXB (UK), FXC (Canada). The FXF (Francs) and FXY (Yen) do not. The collection of these (UDN) all together does earn some interest.
Bought 200x UDN 19c 5/16. They may actually print.
The dollar is back where is was about six months ago. I don't mean that as a compliment. I think it has plenty of more room to fall. That UDN etf is up almost 12 percent YTD but only 1.14 percent over six months and about six percent over one year.
A lot of people have been suggesting the Invesco currency ETFs like FXE, FXF etc. They have about six of those ETFs for different currencies. They have one ETF that combines 6 currencies, UDN. These even earn some interest in the foreign currency. The expense ratio fee for UDN is currently waived.
Invesco has a whole bunch of currency ETFs. FXE = euro, FXF = swiss franks. UDN is a mix of six non-US dollar currencies for a one-stop shop.
Can't believe I started messing with UDN and it's been paying off.
Invesco has a US Dollar Index Bearish Fund - ticker UDN. Not financial advice!
FXE is the etf for Euros. FXF is the etf for swiss francs. FXY is the etf for the japanese yen. FXB is the ETF for for british pounds. There is also always GLD as the main etf for gold futures. UDN is there if you want to short the dollar.
What's the most cost-effective way to use USD to 'short' the DXY for an unleveraged long-term position? I saw that an ETF with ticker UDN exists, but expense fee seems steep. Should I trade FX pairs on a brokerage? (I have thinkorswim, looks like IBKR could be better for FX?). Do I use a moneychanger service like Wise? Just trying to defend the risk-off portion of my portfolio from the possibility that the US Fed and/or Treasury could go full retard.
If you're only concerned about USD depreciation, you can hedge with FXE, FXY, UDN, etc. That will not address higher inflation or stagflation though.
Hold UDN, UDN LEAPs, gold, BTC. A quick way to diversify if you're bearish the dollar in order of volatility.
If you're not making money in this market you're doing it wrong. It's not 2024 anymore, you neutered bulls. As for tomorrow? Unload these UDN and TLT calls and hope for more cope.
Im an idiot and not sure if this is the best option, but I've got some money in the UDN bearish dollar index fund and considering 10-100xing said money
Just inverse the dollar if you think that way. I have 25% in UDN. 25% in Mexican peso at 10.5%. Hedge bro.
4 main options I can see: - gold (I don’t trust trump won’t fuck with this) - forex trusts such as FXE, FXF, FXY - unhedged international bonds like BWX - directly betting against the dollar in UDN
FXE (euros), FXF (swiss francs) are decent options. I've been building a position in FXE. Call options are stupidly priced though. UDN is there if you want to short the dollar directly. I'm also wondering if it's worth waiting a bit for the USD to bounce back some. It just had a massive drop. I've been putting in orders on FXE for under the bid price, cause I think there has got to be a rubberbanding effect in the short term. Who knows though, maybe the dollar really is dying this fast and we are going to experience hyperinflation in a year or two. Jesus can you imagine? Assholes voted in Mango mainly on inflation only to have him turn the USD into the turkish lyra.
I don't understand how anyone who's been trading for more than a few months plays 0dtes or even weeklies. Sure, an opportunity arises here and there, and of course short dated options make sense for earnings plays, but for the most part it's like you say: The market is completely irrational and unpredictable short term. Long term though the market is forced to accept reality. Anyone have a counterthesis for the dollar dying? Shorting the dollar right now feels like shorting Intel last summer; about as close as you can get to a sure thing in the market. I mean nothing is certain, but going long on UDN feels like I'm rolling dice that are super weighted in my favor.