UDN
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
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A mid-Month Review: Technical Snapshots & Trade Journal so far for August 2023
Still long $UDN and bearish on US Dollar until Fed stops raising and yield curve un-inverts.
Question about recent politics (debt limit) and investing
At least 6 more bull months, based on JPow's speech
My most degenerate possible upcoming YOLO.
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UDN invesco bearish fund, v UPP invesco bullish fund May take along time, already had a nice run.
UDN tracks a couple of foreign bond funds well. BWZ and BWX I think. They pay divvies differently, so it's not exact.
did math today on whether it’s better to park my cash in $UDN or money market. What a fun thing to get to do.
https://preview.redd.it/hzc3bm9jo6af1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=62b724cf5053a810107176430b8dc1f9bda3108f Cool kids are shorting the dollar $UDN
Check out the $UDN ETF for the same period. Up $2.13 12.69%
I bought UDN this week, perhaps you can do the same if you think USD will flop thi year (as I think too). It is literally Trump policy to devalue the USD, so I am just putting my money where his mouth is.
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN)
I have a very small posn in UDN. A bearish $ ETF. It’s up around 13% year YTD.
Because I was busy watching my $UDN gains hoping they'd go higher.
I'd say buy long-dated UDN calls/UUP puts, but that somehow has not worked for me at all.
I found levereged USD short etf called UDN. Thinking to start buying it. Is there anyone here ahorting with this?
What's the bullish case for USD? Full port UDN beat SPY by 10% since 🌮 started manipulating the market. I think we could test DXY 2 year lows (down 25%) this year.
UUP and UDN seem like fun. 
I bought calls on UDN (long dated) to assuage this anxiety. Also bought a chunk of gdxj and some platinum. Bitcoin or XMR are good if you need to flee the country, so might want to get some of that as well
Yeah: XLY, SMH, SBUX, NFLX, WMT, and calls on UDN (short USD). Probably should short TLT but I don’t have any more gambling money. Dates are about 2-3 months out on most of these. 10-15% OTM
The U.S. dollar is in horrible shape under these clowns. If you aren't hedging your portfolio value baseline by shorting the dollar with either eoy UDN calls or UUP puts, what are you even doing.
My moves tomorrow? Sell all my bleeding SPY and AAPL puts. It's clear this idiot is just going to gradually give in to these dumb tariffs with exemptions eventually to all major industries as the crypto bribes roll in. Focus instead on GLD leaps, and December UDN calls.
Yolo UDN (US dollar bear etf) calls.
I'm using UDN, which is a bear ETF of USD vs. a basket of other major currencies. Gives you at least a way to hedge the dollar relative to the rest of the globe.
Too expensive imo. Need a better entry. I have been loading calls on UDN (inverse dxy), but i need cheaper puts to feel comfortable that i won’t get rekt
Seriously Pepe, I gonna kick back in SPAXX, UDN and rip six packs and burritos with my monopoly money on my burner phone.
Just cash now with long dated calls on UDN (short dxy). No good way to play this nonsense
The only things I’m long on at the moment is platinum and UDN.
The Invesco currency ETFs for several currencies also earn some interest: FXE (Euros), FXA (Australia), FXB (UK), FXC (Canada). The FXF (Francs) and FXY (Yen) do not. The collection of these (UDN) all together does earn some interest.
Bought 200x UDN 19c 5/16. They may actually print.
The dollar is back where is was about six months ago. I don't mean that as a compliment. I think it has plenty of more room to fall. That UDN etf is up almost 12 percent YTD but only 1.14 percent over six months and about six percent over one year.
A lot of people have been suggesting the Invesco currency ETFs like FXE, FXF etc. They have about six of those ETFs for different currencies. They have one ETF that combines 6 currencies, UDN. These even earn some interest in the foreign currency. The expense ratio fee for UDN is currently waived.
Invesco has a whole bunch of currency ETFs. FXE = euro, FXF = swiss franks. UDN is a mix of six non-US dollar currencies for a one-stop shop.
Can't believe I started messing with UDN and it's been paying off.
Invesco has a US Dollar Index Bearish Fund - ticker UDN. Not financial advice!
FXE is the etf for Euros. FXF is the etf for swiss francs. FXY is the etf for the japanese yen. FXB is the ETF for for british pounds. There is also always GLD as the main etf for gold futures. UDN is there if you want to short the dollar.
What's the most cost-effective way to use USD to 'short' the DXY for an unleveraged long-term position? I saw that an ETF with ticker UDN exists, but expense fee seems steep. Should I trade FX pairs on a brokerage? (I have thinkorswim, looks like IBKR could be better for FX?). Do I use a moneychanger service like Wise? Just trying to defend the risk-off portion of my portfolio from the possibility that the US Fed and/or Treasury could go full retard.
If you're only concerned about USD depreciation, you can hedge with FXE, FXY, UDN, etc. That will not address higher inflation or stagflation though.
Hold UDN, UDN LEAPs, gold, BTC. A quick way to diversify if you're bearish the dollar in order of volatility.
If you're not making money in this market you're doing it wrong. It's not 2024 anymore, you neutered bulls. As for tomorrow? Unload these UDN and TLT calls and hope for more cope.
Im an idiot and not sure if this is the best option, but I've got some money in the UDN bearish dollar index fund and considering 10-100xing said money
Just inverse the dollar if you think that way. I have 25% in UDN. 25% in Mexican peso at 10.5%. Hedge bro.
4 main options I can see: - gold (I don’t trust trump won’t fuck with this) - forex trusts such as FXE, FXF, FXY - unhedged international bonds like BWX - directly betting against the dollar in UDN
FXE (euros), FXF (swiss francs) are decent options. I've been building a position in FXE. Call options are stupidly priced though. UDN is there if you want to short the dollar directly. I'm also wondering if it's worth waiting a bit for the USD to bounce back some. It just had a massive drop. I've been putting in orders on FXE for under the bid price, cause I think there has got to be a rubberbanding effect in the short term. Who knows though, maybe the dollar really is dying this fast and we are going to experience hyperinflation in a year or two. Jesus can you imagine? Assholes voted in Mango mainly on inflation only to have him turn the USD into the turkish lyra.
I don't understand how anyone who's been trading for more than a few months plays 0dtes or even weeklies. Sure, an opportunity arises here and there, and of course short dated options make sense for earnings plays, but for the most part it's like you say: The market is completely irrational and unpredictable short term. Long term though the market is forced to accept reality. Anyone have a counterthesis for the dollar dying? Shorting the dollar right now feels like shorting Intel last summer; about as close as you can get to a sure thing in the market. I mean nothing is certain, but going long on UDN feels like I'm rolling dice that are super weighted in my favor.
UDN calls should print in the event of continuing chaos in the US right?
I actually was thinking about this, a play in ULE, YCL or UDN. It's just that my own style is very active and so I don't tend to bother with lower volatility options. Still a worthy play though.
I just put all my money in Euro and Swiss Franc vs. USD futures and then the last lil bit in UDN and SQQQ. Since I went full bear, my luck says the market will go back to normal and the world will be saved from uncertainty. YOU’RE WELCOME, REGARDS.
This is great suggestion there is also UDN, USDU, UUP which are direct plays on the dollar. With all of these read the terms understand expense ratios, and if there is any decay, but way safer then jumping on futures, currency if you haven't traded them before.
I wasn't suggesting just saying where they can be found. If you want to bet against the dollar and you haven't traded currency or futures before check these ETF's. You can make the same hedges bets in a much safer way vs trying to figure out futures, currency, and options at the same time. FXY, YCL, YCS, FXE, EUO, ULE, FXF, UDN, USDU, UUP
Yeah, liquidity is an issue on these. I want more contracts, but they are priced insanely, and have very low limits on how many you can buy at a time. No surprise really. Also the bid/ask spreads are insane on FXE. When FXE was 101.50 the bid/ask for 104c strike Jan 26 was $0.20 / $4.10. At this point I wish I would have bought them at that time anyway, but when I was looking at it there just was no way I was going to buy contracts for over $4 that I would only be able to sell for $0.20, seemed insane. The ITM options are a bit better, but still ridiculous spreads. Still buying UDN, FXE, and FXF positions outright seem like solid plays. OTM options are arguably too expensive though, ITM options on UDN are decently priced, but liquidity is an issue, you're limited to 200 contracts; they won't let you buy more until you fill your first order, I wonder if there is a hard limit on what you can buy in a day.
Thanks for this. I didn't know about these and had bought UDN calls instead.
UDN, PHYS or SGOL, Maybe EWL
I moved a good portion of my money to foreign currency ETFS like FXF, FXE, and FXY. Also put some in gold and shorting the Dollar via UDN.
I should have bought more UDN calls.
It’s late for CHF. They are likely to intervene soon. My 2014 debt default hedge got crushed by the SNB. I’m diversifying out of my very well performing CHF positions into more JPY and UDN (diversified) and considering adding to a big pile of GLD (no central bank). Have been a bit surprised that BTC is holding its range- I think the bro faith in crypto is not strong enough to overcome the average buyer’s tendency to sell when risk is off. European low volatility stocks are also back in the green (EFAV) after getting hit by tariff announcements. Can’t figure out how to access pure German bonds from a US account. That’s my defensive strategy in a nutshell.
maybe I full port UDN and just unplug for a week
long UDN (short dollar) ETF, long 6E (euro) futures, or just shorting RTY futures cuz we're fukt if we lose reserve currency status
real talk though how am I, generic American, supposed to offset USD becoming monopoly money. Gold? $UDN? Just hit enough 10-baggers to compensate?
This is just the beginning, in my opinion. USD losing another 10% by mid-May seems inevitable. I just wish UUP/UDN/FXE options had better liquidity as a trade.
Someone above said "UDN is basically equivalent to holding foreign currency, but yeah, I'd go for BNDX (foreign bonds) if you want something longer term/to avoid inflation." I think thats the only good advice thats been given on this thread so far. Wanted to highlight it for you since it seems like you have similar concerns as me. I don't think there is a proper risk free option at the moment but its about hedging different ones. Personally I am going to keep some in vti, some cash in HYSA and probably some in foreign bonds. YMMV tho. I don't really care if I lose a little bit of money or don't gain the optimal amount, just would like a hedge against getting totally wrecked.
UDN is basically equivalent to holding foreign currency, but yeah, I'd go for BNDX (foreign bonds) if you want something longer term/to avoid inflation. If you want foreign stocks, VXUS or DFAI are nice, but those are fairly correlated to US stocks and are not exactly safe if the US goes south. GLD and FGDL are good too. Gold is a tad bit overvalued, though. In my case, I'm balancing a carefully tuned mix of long/short positions in stocks, real estate etfs, and crypto that should gain value while being market neutral, i.e. have near zero correlation to the market. But that takes a bit of work to get right.
UDN is a good etf for betting against the US dollar.
I arrived at the same thesis as well after hearing about Miran's paper and reading through it to try to make sense of Trump's tariff actions. Buying UDN seems like the right choice, but huge open question is will countries capitulate and agree to devalue USD, and if so, how long will it take? If they don't capitulate, will the US withdraw from NATO? If so, what happens to USD (probably devalues)?
If you want to be risky buy some gold and bitcoin (I support neither right now). If you are more conservative go with money markets or UDN or long maturity US treasuries.
Keep $400k in cash (but diversified across currencies, e.g. 40% in $UDN), $100k in SQQQ.
UDN is what you’re looking for
For me that’s great, buy UDN
UDN is going to hit $20 by end of summer.
could always bet directly against the dollar with UDN.
You can get dollar funds like $UUP, $USDU if you're bullish on the dollar or $UDN if you're bearish on the dollar. You can also bet on Canadian dollars $FXC or Euro with $FXE. Canadian dollar has to go back up eventually it's a good play for the long term
You could buy shares of UDN. You could buy call options on UDN. You could short sell UUP. You could buy put options on UUP.
UMC, Taiwan’s 2nd biggest chip foundry, has won a big order from Qualcomm for advanced semiconductor packaging of HPC chips used in AI PCs, vehicles and AI servers. -UDN [Link](https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/8429791?from=edn_maintab_index) UMC stonk up 2.8%.
The USD took a shit on those rate cuts. I should have bought UDN last week and called it a day. Damn.
Buying UDN before it’s too late
It's priced in already. You want to play dollar weakness, UDN (or UND, I forget the dollar bear ticker)
UDN is actual free money.
UDN is easy money here.
UDN -->19$ before July imho
From your link " **A report by Chinese technology outlet,** [**UDN**](https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/7776705?from=edn_maintab_index)**, suggests that AMD's Zen 5 CPUs will be entering TSMC fabs in Q2 followed by mass production in Q3 2024.** "
UDN https://www.invesco.com/us/financial-products/etfs/product-detail?audienceType=investor&ticker=udn
Overlay a chart of UDN on top of S&P. Any time frame you like. There was a 5% dividend in Dec so you will have to adjust for that.
The S&P 500 is already diversified by 500 different stocks, if you want to diversify further don’t do it with stocks. Chasing high dividend yields can get messy, they’re usually high for a reason. You won’t be missing out on anything, because the more you diversify, the less those special ones will have an affect on your portfolio. If you want to have more stocks than the S&P 500, buy VTI (Vanguard’s Total market fund, contains 3761 stocks). Other than that, you can buy gold either physically or through GLD, there’s several bond funds including government/corporate, short term/long term, low risk/high risk, and currency or foreign currency, which is either physical or through a fund (UUP long USD, UDN short USD)
Regard here why did UDN & UUP both drop like 6 % after weekend .
Options are tough; in addition to predicting the tight move overall, you need to nail the entry level and the move needs to happen faster & with little reversals or consolidation than the time decay...so you have the move overall + price level + price action + time factor to contend with...as opposed to just the overall move + price level if you were to go long/short the stock itself. Many times I got the move right (e.g. price went up/like as I thought it would) but it did not happen fast enough, or there were reversals or consolidation along the way,.all of which resulted in a losing trade despite being "righr" about the move overall...that time factor killed me. The best way I've found to overcome the time variable is to simply pay for more time, e.g. expiration dates that are 6-9+ months away. I've found doing so mitigates (to at least some degree) those little reversals or consolidations. An example are some calls I'm currently holding in UDN. The US Dollar is going to pullback, but this choppy action + time decay has the position negative right now. But I have until mid-March 2024...so we'll see. Hope you're having a great weekend
Short UUP. Long UDN. Long YCL. Short YCS. Short dollar futures (/DX). Long Yen futures (/6E). Short USD/JPY forex pair.