VKTX

SamizdatCom

I'm holding a call option that rarely ever moves how I would expect: VKTX, $20 strike, expiring 1/15/27. Delta: 0.8604; Gamma: 0.0080; Theta: -0.0120; Vega: 0.0660; IV: 93.07%. Today the underlying stock lost -$0.21. Based on the delta of 0.8604, I would expect the option to lose roughly -$0.18, but it dropped -$0.87. This happens constantly, and I feel like I'm missing something. I'm not totally new to options and my past contracts have been much more predictable against the underlying stock. I do see that the volume is at 0 today, and Bids are $15.70 x 13 vs. Ask of $18.85 x 108 (current option price is $17.28). Could the low volume and/or the wide spread be a cause for this unpredictability?

Careful_Response4694

VKTX

Careful_Response4694

Full port VKTX, don't touch for 2-3 years.

Careful_Response4694

Bullish for VKTX

Careful_Response4694

Long VKTX.

Neither-Dish-5811

VKTX- $2.12 to $90.00

Cantthinkofacoolnam

Tomorrow VKTX dies. You welcome.

Careful_Response4694

I hold VKTX and SM but am otherwise full bear positions.

2Hosslovescash

CEO sucks. Board sucks. PR sucks. Marketing team sucks. Pipeline sucks. Unless they buy VKTX, will continue to get smoked.

DYRTYDAVE

What are you talking about? Cagrisema is a disappointment and if you look at the data, Reta isn't even the real issue (more safety issues and less tolerability for more rapid WL is more likely to target a more niche market) -- it's Tirz, which remains just flat out better and more tolerable than anything else on the market. Your analysis also doesn't really take into account that oral agents like the wegovy pill will be outclassed from efficacy/tolerability perspective within a couple years (we have already seen first mover status means nothing in the face of better drugs). I actually agree NVO at these prices isn't a bad buy, but the market is looking forward and its pipeline is weak. Besides LLY, there are also several BP with incoming competition, and the most dangerous competitor to NVO in all likelihood is VKTX or whoever eventually acquires them (if NVO acquires them, then I would actually flip to very bullish).

RaikouVsHaiku

Oppenheimer dropped a hawt chart on VKTX data that might give it a pump. Gonna be before you queefs can make a move on it though

StygianUnknown

Gotta say thank you again. I was using real time stock prices but neglecting to do real time company analysis. I missed the update yesterday that Viking is expanding capacity with Catalent. Updated commentary: # VKTX (Viking Therapeutics) - Executive Summary **1. The Fundamental Check (The "Why" Filter):** VKTX is heavily shorted by institutions betting that the clinical-stage biotech lacks the manufacturing capacity to compete against heavyweights like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk in the GLP-1 weight-loss sector. However, executing the Counter-Thesis Search Mandate reveals this bear thesis is critically flawed: VKTX recently finalized a massive manufacturing and supply agreement with CordenPharma to provide large-scale supply and fill/finish capacity for both subcutaneous and oral VK2735 formulations. Management confirmed this provides capacity for a multibillion-dollar revenue opportunity. The shorts are trapped in an obsolete narrative, while bulls are trading on advanced Phase III trials and recent M&A takeover speculation. **2. The Convergence Check (Dual-Model Validation):** * **BSM Prob 1 ($45.00 Upper Channel/Call Wall):** 23.04% * **MC Prob 1 ($45.00 Upper Channel/Call Wall):** 11.56% * **Status:** **DIVERGENT (Trust MC - BSM Over-Optimistic)** * *Commentary:* The BSM model is being artificially inflated by a high 72.9% Implied Volatility. While a spike to the $45.00 resistance is theoretically possible, the Monte Carlo path simulation shows that in over 88% of simulated realities, the stock fails to reach and hold that level before April 17th. **3. The Fat Tail Check (The "Squeeze" Filter):** * **Short Interest:** 23.20% (High Pressure) * **Days to Cover:** 10.86 Days (Extreme Bottleneck) * **Borrow Rate:** 0.37% (No Financial Pain) * *Commentary:* No Fat Tail Flag appended. While the 10.86 Days to Cover creates a severe exit bottleneck, the negligible 0.37% Borrow Rate means the shorts are not bleeding capital. They are not trapped by carrying costs; they are simply waiting out the clock. **4. The Output Format (The Final Synthesis):** "Our dual-model probability engine yields a **23.04%** theoretical (BSM) probability and a **11.56%** pathwise (Monte Carlo) probability of reaching the **$45.00** Ignition Point (a **29.12%** ROI) by the **April 17, 2026** options expiration. For the **$92.72** Exhaustion Ceiling, the models show a **0.00%** (BSM) and **0.00%** (MC) probability. **Synthesis:** Because the models are **DIVERGENT**, the **11.56% MC** probability is the more mathematically sound expectation. The 11.48% gap indicates the BSM model is artificially inflated by sector-wide Implied Volatility, while pathwise simulations reveal the stock lacks the sustained momentum required to breach the upper target. Note: This stock is in the Biotechnology sector, which is currently experiencing high M&A speculation and volatility surrounding GLP-1 pipeline advancements." **The Risk/Reward Verdict:** * **Floor Risk (Tier 3 - Warning):** 12.51% drop to the $30.49 algorithmic support floor. * **Risk/Reward Ratio (Target 1):** 1 : 2.33 * **Verdict:** **HOLD.** With a Divergent Convergence Check and a Tier 3 risk profile, the math does not support deploying capital purely for a short squeeze today. Despite the strong fundamental counter-thesis and the extreme Days to Cover bottleneck, the shorts are not financially pressured to cover immediately, and the pathwise probability (11.56%) of hitting the ignition point is too low to justify a 12.51% downside risk.

StygianUnknown

Thoughts? # VKTX (Viking Therapeutics) - Executive Summary **1. The Fundamental Check (The "Why" Filter):** VKTX is a high-profile battleground in the GLP-1 weight-loss sector. Institutional shorts are betting against their cash burn and potential inability to compete long-term with the manufacturing scale of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Bulls are trading on the recent advancement of their oral Phase 3 trials and intense M&A takeover speculation. **2. The Convergence Check (Dual-Model Validation):** * **BSM Prob 1 ($45.00 Upper Channel/Call Wall):** 28.62% * **MC Prob 1 ($45.00 Upper Channel/Call Wall):** 14.44% * **Status:** **DIVERGENT (Trust MC - BSM Over-Optimistic)** * *Commentary:* The BSM model is being heavily skewed by the massive 85% Implied Volatility surrounding the obesity sector. While a spike to the $45.00 resistance is theoretically possible, the Monte Carlo path simulation shows that in over 85% of simulated realities, the stock fails to reach and hold that level before April 17th. **3. The Fat Tail Check (The "Squeeze" Filter):** * **Short Interest:** 23.20% (High Pressure) * **Days to Cover:** 10.86 Days (Extreme Bottleneck) * **Borrow Rate:** 0.37% (No Financial Pain) * *Commentary:* No Fat Tail Flag appended. While the 10.86 Days to Cover creates a severe exit bottleneck, the near-zero Borrow Rate means the shorts are not bleeding capital. They are not trapped; they are simply waiting. **4. The Output Format (The Final Synthesis):** "Our dual-model probability engine yields a **28.62%** theoretical (BSM) probability and a **14.44%** pathwise (Monte Carlo) probability of reaching the **$45.00** Ignition Point (a **29.20%** ROI) by the **April 17, 2026** options expiration. For the **$92.72** Exhaustion Ceiling, the models show a **0.02%** (BSM) and **0.01%** (MC) probability. **Synthesis:** Because the models are **DIVERGENT**, the **14.44% MC** probability is the more mathematically sound expectation. The 14.18% gap indicates the BSM model is artificially inflated by extreme sector Implied Volatility, while pathwise simulations reveal the stock struggles to sustain the required momentum. Note: This stock is in the Biotechnology sector, which is currently experiencing high M&A speculation and volatility surrounding GLP-1 pipeline advancements." **The Risk/Reward Verdict:** * **Floor Risk (Tier 3 - Warning):** 12.46% drop to the $30.49 accumulated volume support floor. * **Risk/Reward Ratio (Target 1):** 1 : 2.34 * **Verdict:** **HOLD.** With a Divergent Convergence Check and a Tier 3 risk profile, the math does not support deploying capital purely for a short squeeze today. The shorts are not financially pressured to cover, and the pathwise probability (14.44%) of hitting the ignition point is too low to justify a 12.46% downside risk.

Careful_Response4694

You're welcome, run VKTX maybe. They are a pre-rev biotech I'm in which has a huge short selling percentage

Careful_Response4694

Both will be cooked in 2 years when competitors from VKTX etcetera come out

Careful_Response4694

VKTX is cheap

LiamPhlegmsworth

I don’t have puts lmao. I already sold mine considering NVO and HIMS have eaten absolute shit for the past few months. I’m long VKTX, a superior drug to trash semaglutide.

Affectionate-Day2743

Green on MSFT, RKLB, SOFI and NFLX.. blood red on RDDT, WMT and VKTX

FUBOSOFI

They need to stop investing in biotech if they thought NVO was a good buy. Literally nothing positive with semaglutide vs competitors and their pipeline is trashola. VKTX gang 😎

FUBOSOFI

VKTX coming out with a better Zepbound (Ozempic sucks) and DRTS killing cancer with alpha radiation approved in Japan today. You guys haven’t even seen the best way to lose $ in the market until you get in biotechs

mind_of_luminesce

VKTX

PalpitationSmooth992

all of this DD and the real answer is NVO has lost the race even VKTX will eventually take even more market share do you understand why the huge selloff its smart money exiting a sinking ship

milocreates

What about VKTX

FUBOSOFI

60% of my Roth is VKTX. Today was a good day

Dapper_Ad6341

NVO CagriSema, didn’t achieve its key goal of demonstrating non-inferiority on weight loss when compared to Eli Lilly’s rival drug tirzepatide. This could make VKTX even more valuable if VK-2735 works. [https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/23/novo-nordisk-stock-cagrisema-trial-fails-weight-loss.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/23/novo-nordisk-stock-cagrisema-trial-fails-weight-loss.html)

ControlTheNarratives

Hedge with some $VKTX for when they buy it for a big number soon.

LiamPhlegmsworth

Semaglutide inferior to Tirzapetide and losing patents soon. NVO’s pipeline is booty hoe. VKTX has a p3 oral/SQ that will compete with Tirz for BIC weight loss and put NVO in the cuck chair as it’s firmly outclassed by both. Good luck with that!

DYRTYDAVE

Yeah, I don't disagree with you. My only big play in the space is VKTX, but I've made a lot in it over the years and I know it well, so it's a big conviction play.

Pinball_and_Proust

VKTX is up.

LiamPhlegmsworth

NVO is in a death spiral. Ozempic is inferior to Zepbound and VKTX has a P3 that is better than both on the way. NVO needs to buy something asap or they’re toast. Cagrisema is trash

dvdmovie1

I've said this on here before when NVO was quite a bit higher and people didn't agree with me, but IMO if you have a healthcare growth stock and the market asks what's next and there isn't a compelling enough answer, the re-rate can be very considerable. You saw it with GILD as a hot growth stock in the mid 2010's with the Hep-C drugs. The moment that started to slow and the company didn't have an answer to what's next, the stock started drifting lower. The company did an absurdly large buyback and....it still went further South. Eventually it reached a floor and largely wandered for years. It didn't get back to the 2015 high until ten years later. NVO is probably not far from a floor, but the fact that it fumbled the share it had in obesity certainly isn't good (I can't recall a company having a strong share of a massive new category and having it go South in this manner) and they really need to win investors back imo. They will also probably have to spend (see VKTX up 11% as perhaps people think there's a chance that finally gets bought.)

TheoryInttro

Google is at least holding up, that's nice when everything else is tanking. But why the hell are my VKTX shares up 13% today?

LiamPhlegmsworth

VKTX big dickin

imadogg

I'm invested (and red) in Viking VKTX which is also in this field... Gives me some hope lmao

Sea-Put3596

Hm cheaper for a reason? I am long LLY and VKTX rather

GnosBleeder8

Enjoying a small VKTX boost while many other things look a bit sad ngl

JackWagon1990

VKTX I just started taking Zepbound (competition for VKTX) just to see how this GLP-1 stuff is and it’s a pretty crazy good drug so far in my experience. I’m betting VKTX can massively increase their market cap once they either get acquired or get their GLP-1s to market and this is a massive market.

daytrader987654321

I follow VKTX very closely and I’m bullish on their products. That being said, their CEO is a liability. He thinks his company should go for 20Bn and has allegedly turned down offers from Lilly in 2024 and Pfizer in 2025. He needs to accept 10Bn. Otherwise Structure and Kailera Therapeutics will be acquired first and Viking won’t be able to make it alone without massive dilution and only getting low single digit % of the US market. They don’t even have money for EU trials which they never even mentioned.

theplague1245

VKTX - originally trying to treat fatty liver, now treating the fatties as well

ExplanationNormal339

Pipeline news pumps are notorious for giving back gains once the initial euphoria fades. I'd be looking for a fade back to the $12-13 range where this thing was trading before the announcement. [$VKTX](https://aimytrade.io/ticker/VKTX?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=comment&utm_campaign=options) puts might actually print if you time the rejection right.

Dritzz-9966

Where are my fellow VKTX investors??

BrownBoiler

Anyone playing VKTX earnings?

ControlTheNarratives

Very true. If they bought VKTX they’d probably have a better drug than any of them too

juiced911

NVO and LLY have an insane inventory of drug patents though. Far beyond GLPs. I could see VKTX doubling tho.

Jussttjustin

Only NVO and LLY have FDA approved GLP1 drugs. NVO is run by absolute retards and still worth $200B. LLY is worth $1T. VKTX is next in line to be approved to sell GLP1 in the US and they are currently worth $3B. There is execution risk but if it hits it is going to hit big.

SaltyEarth7905

UNH, MSFT, Viking / VKTX, NFLX. Not that they will be V-shaped recoveries, but these are gifts. If the market dumps or we get a recovery and rejection to 6100 SPX and everything goes, I’m buying Taiwan Semi, ASML, Lam

Anonymustafar

VKTX discounts 🤑🤑🤑🤑

BrownBoiler

VKTX calls

duldi

I have the same rule and hoping that VKTX doesnt shit the bed

2Hosslovescash

Except VKTX and their weak CEO

Fresh_Fox_8118

Bought when it was in 700s not thinking to sell it at atleast 1100 because I don't think it will ho any higher than that. I have 13 and thinking to invest on something long term like VOO, VXUS or QQQM. I mean those are already giving me 7 to 8% in 6 months I invested. On the other hand I'm losing in NVO and VKTX like more than 45% down since I bought 🥲

innsmouth-denizen

Glad I finally got my money out of the meat grinder that is VKTX. That said, buy fear? 🤔

The-Prestige-1825

Viking Therapeutics VKTX buy.

092Casey

HOOD, TTD, PLTR, SOUN, JOBY, VKTX, ACHR, RGTI, and QBTS are SO buyable right now, like HS generational wealth buyable.

wolvendael

you realize by comparing max tirzp or VKTX weight loss figures, you're cherry picking as well. you can't compare WL figures for the max dose and then pick the side effects from a medium dose. If you look at tirzep p2 in MASH, the only tolerable dose for TPZ (med dose) had the same WL has pemvi in p2. So they are literally the same when controlling for dose and d/cs. Obesity drugs will not seamlessly translate to MASH. Tolerability is the most important thing. And why do you continue to ignore $250m in cash and $100m in credit facility? That is just about enough for a full p3 in MASH with 900 biopsy patients - though I'd love to see them raise $100m more. Not to mention this is the classic logical trap of: I know they're trading at cash...that's bc they need more capital, then they'd be 10x and in line with peers. But they can't raise it - otherwise they'll tank 30%! Every drug that has raised funds going into p3 in MASH has appreciated in price. Viking has basically abandoned MASH....no p2 results in a year, no p3 plans. At the last MASH conference, KOL Rohit Loomba literally said from the podium, "I don't know what they're doing...has anyone heard from them??" and then moved on to other drugs. Viking is dead in MASH.

wolvendael

So this is gaslighting 101 by a VKTX baggie. No stock has a bigger cult following than VKTX. How many times have you heard of ALT? My guess is few and far between - hence it doesn’t pass the smell test that it has a cult following. ALT does have a few followers who objectively look at very good science and differentiating factors that continue to be ignored by WS and bashed by competitors. The truth about pemvidutide: it’s a 1:1 glucagon to GLP agonist, which skews it less towards max weight loss (-15% in its straight obesity trial) and better suited for MASH. It had its phase 2 results (which weee excellent) published in The Lancet, has late-breaker podium presentation at the largest hepatology conference in Nov, receive BTD from the FDA for phase 3, has a new commercially-focused CEO, and is now likely in talks with a partner. Yet it barely sits above cash value. That is what ALT investors are focused on - the mispricing or deliberate suppression of the share price. The competitive landscape favors pemvidutide: it has the classic MASH and fibrosis response of other drugs in its class, but it has BIC tolerability. This is what matters most in MASH: staying on the drug. Hepatologists and GIs have repeatedly said that they are not chasing weight loss. It’s nice to have, but GLP1s that have 10-20% diacontinuations (like survodutide) are not going to be prescribed. Patients have a serious liver disease and have to remain on the drug. Pemvi has <1% tolerability, mainly due to its EuPort construction, which slows absorption and decrease max concentration. This is a large differentiating factor for pemvi. After that, its results with prescriber-preferred noninvasive tests (VCTE, ELF, PDFF) were so good and statistically significant that the global head of MASH for Lilly called them “beautiful” at AASLD conference in Nov. and now FDA is moving away from biopsy and allowing NITs for pivotal trials - right at the perfect time for ALT’s p3 design. ALT bulls aren’t trying to convening you that pemvidutide will be the number 1 drug of all time, or that it will replace all other MASH drugs. It’s simply that pemvidutide does seem poised to capture a lot of the market, has been derisked due to FDA BTD (conferring a historical 80% prob of success from a Jefferies analysis), and that every other drug entering p3 in MASH with good data and BTD has been bought for $3bn to $5bn. It’s a hot field. There are many legacy players with no presence - including GSK, AZ, PFE, and many others looking to get into the MASH field. ALT longs would simply like to see the company rerate to fair value. It’s certainly long overdue.

wolvendael

lol must be a bitter VKTX bag holder

Dritzz-9966

They likely tried already behind closed doors (offered 10B for MTSR, which is VERY inferior to VKTX and a lot further behind). However VKTX's management probably is asking for 25-40B in a buyout scenario (which is a huge premium on today's share price, but is what the company would be worth for VK2735). So it's a lot in the look of it. If you do a buyout for a 1200% premium, maybe the shareholders (who aren't necessarily knowledgeable in bio data) will not be happy. That's the only reason. You are right, I am extremely bullish on VKTX, see my last WSB DD on my profile for more info. I will also become extremely bullish towards the company that acquires or partners with VKTX and will buy a large position. This is because NVO/ABBV/MRK have a really good supply chain and marketing, they are just lacking a good product.

BabyPatato2023

What’s the case for them not acquiring VKTX? This sounds like a no brainer and thus would think you are very bullish on the stock

Dritzz-9966

This is wrong here's why, and bagholders will downvote me. Tirzepatide (LLY) is way better on both efficacy and tolerability, by far. They have crazy growth, almost in the triple digits % (meanwhile semaglutide growth is almost halted, we're talking single digits growth). Everyone is taking tirzepatide, not Wegovy, this is a fact from the data, nothing subjective. Also retatrutide (LLY) is coming soon like a freight train, meanwhile, NVO's internal pipeline is non-existent. This is corroborated by the fact that NVO is looking for M&A, they tried and failed to acquire MTSR. Thus even management is not comfident in their internal pipeline and knows it's not competitive against LLY. The X factor though: VKTX. All hope is not lost for NVO yet, so rejoice if you are a bagholder. They tried and will try again and again to partner with VKTX or buy them out (they have a tirzepatide-but-better drug in Phase 3 which is both subq and oral). Asking price is high but with that, NVO will be able to compete with LLY. That's the only way NVO can compete long term. If they do acquire VKTX, this will be extremely bullish for NVO and they will go back to their ATH.

FUBOSOFI

LLY better. VKTX pushing through p3 trials but also better. I’m taint deep in VKTX for the upside but if I had to hold an established company it’s LLY all day.

FUBOSOFI

VKTX coming to fix that

Nefarious_AI_Agent

Did VKTX finally cure fatassness?

Nefarious_AI_Agent

VKTX saving my port today

innsmouth-denizen

VKTX still severely undervalued considering the assets. Now with talk of NVO acquisition/partnership.

innsmouth-denizen

VKTX x NVO rumors

FUBOSOFI

Idk from a product standpoint LLY is better and VKTX has a better pipeline. NVO kinda 💩 but they might buy something useful

Ashamed_Distance_144

Nah just wait for the VKTX offering. My calls will thank you, your doctor will just be annoyed.

JackFourj4

the biggest winners this year will be in biotech, but that's a high risk sector as you will know. The big pharma companies need to replenish their pipelines because some megabillion drugs are going off patent in the next couple of years. They will be buying these companies with high premiums in bidding wars. For example look at Metsera and the bidding war there. Obesity will still be the big one, as that market is growing immensely and still quite new with it's products. conviction plays for me in that sector are VKTX and BMEA, former already multi billion and the latter still under 100mil

DYRTYDAVE

Most don't understand the nuances of this. First, NVO's pill is only $149 for the low dose; a largely ineffective dose. That's aside from the fact the pill itself, is not nearly as effective as the shots, and are less tolerable. We already see a significant number of discontinuations in the shots after a year; the pill will be even worse considering it's even less tolerable (and less effective). Second, this will not be a long-term solution for NVO. Their pipeline is very weak and they we have seen what happens when a better option becomes available on the market (see LLY slowly taking over the market share despite NVO first mover status for the shots). NVO is lucky LLY's pill is also very underwhelming (if not more), but they won't dominate the burgeoning oral market and they'll be completely overshadowed when VKTX hits the market in a few years with a dual agonist pill that is much more effective and tolerable. Imo, NVO badly needs to acquire a company to bolster its future obesity pipeline because this race to the bottom with a product that will be soon be overshadowed will not keep it relevant for too long.

092Casey

VKTX is at the lowest part of its range.  It either collapses back to 26~ or bounces back to 36-37+. 

flapinux

Buy VKTX

Master-Vanilla-5625

SLS still is a gamble, there is a real case that current valuation is fair/high and people banking on something happening during JP Morgan event will probably be disappointed which could cause a (big) drop VKTX, IMRX and GANX have way more room for steep rises in the coming weeks imo

duldi

VKTX

futbol_collective

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) a $4 Billion market cap pharmaceutical company developing anti-obesity and liver disease medications. I’m betting the company gets acquired for $10-15 Billion in the next 2 years.

Sant268

next year i'll yolo my life out of student debt. pls god RDDT / VKTX to the moon

TradingTennish

VKTX, will be the 3rd large player in obesity or get bought out quite soon. I think the latter is very likely

thevicentesilva

$VKTX

pinktowel12

VKTX!

doughboy_491

I’m in on VKTX too. And I see them as the best play in GLP-1 stocks right now. The question to me is why has the stock not responded at all over the last 12 months when their trial results have been so stellar and the entire analyst community is pumping up VKTX as a 2x or 3x in the next year? Is there something we’re all missing? And second why did Pfizer buy Metsera as their GLP-1 play instead of VKTX? Did they approach VKTX first and get turned down?

Dritzz-9966

Exactly, I agree on all points. I do think NVO will eventually acquire VKTX, or at least try. I mean, they tried with MTSR for a reason: their CEO understands NVO needs M&A to remain competitive. They could go the cheap way with GPCR/SMMT and not become competitive with LLY, or they could pay a higher premium in VKTX and have the possibility of becoming #1, surpassing LLY. As you said, the maintenance possibility with a placebo-like tolerability profile and great efficacy is basically unheard of. VKTX really has its hands on a great drug.

DYRTYDAVE

People don't appreciate that VKTX will allow patients to switch seamlessly between SQ and PO because it's the same dual agonist; and no other competitor will be able to provide that patient flexibility. VKTX PO will be the best on the market by far upon approval, and the tolerability should be placebo-like anywhere around 30-50mg with reasonable titration. It's also likely monthly SQ dosing and potentially weekly PO may get validated as well. If NVO is serious about challenging LLY's dominance in the long run, the only path I realistically see is acquiring VKTX.

Dritzz-9966

I have no idea what you're trying to flex in the first few sentences. Yeah their amylin doesn't appear to be competitive to be honest. It's a non-issue. Won't help NVO long term. Let's agree to disagree on the tirzepatide vs semaglutide point. One thing I'd say is I do believe tirzepatide won't be the king for long as there is some heavy competition coming mainly from VKTX with their PO dual GLP-GIP and their subq VK2735 which appears to have significantly better efficacy than both tirzepatide & retatrutide with a better tolerability profile.

Dritzz-9966

Depressing because you didn't do enough research. There's a reason why LLY is up so much and why NVO is down so much. LLY with its tirzepatide is eating NVO's lunch. Crazy growth, we're talking 80%+ growth YoY, meanwhile, semaglutide's growth is in the low single digits to flat. Wayyy better efficacy, wayy better tolerability. The only reason why someone would be on semaglutide would be that it's cheaper. Add to that the fact that competition is coming extremely fast (VKTX with its VK2735 that will dominate on both subq and oral [only dual GLP-GIP oral = better efficacy than orforglipron & oral semaglutide and better tolerability]). NVO's only long term hope at this point is quality M&A. If they can do quality M&A (the only one that would be worth it to acquire would be VKTX imo), then they may get back to the top place on the podium. But if they don't do quality M&A, then.... I wouldn't want to be a NVO shareholder in that case. They already lost their MTSR deal recently to Pfizer (which is good actually because they still wouldn't have become competitive, the only one worth it is, again, VKTX). With pharma/biotech stocks, you can't invest based on technicals or based on the fact that it's down. It's not like other sectors where there can be quick rebounds after a dip. You always have to do deep research before buying pharma stocks.

WonderiingWizard

Stocks I bought heading into 2026 (DCAing into don’t have full positions yet). PATH, ZETA, SOFI, CRM, AMZN, VKTX, ULS

Complex-Jello-2031

My top right now are VKTX SYRE for mid caps GANX is a good small cap also

Lunar_Excursion

my personal take on VKTX is that it's an M&A target, perhaps by NVO after the Metsera debacle... VK2735 is a nice drug, but i doubt it will have any meaningful advantage over tirz because it activates the same receptors. you would need a head to head phase 3 trial to prove superiority or at least have a pharmacological reason why it would have better activity on those same receptors... there will obviously be room for everyone, but just like in high school, there will only be ONE starting quarterback that gets most of the girls... LLY is ready to dominate with retatrutide, with the best SELECTIVE amylin: eloralintide, and with the possible holy grail: bimagrumab...

JackWagon1990

I'm curious what this thread's thoughts are on LLY and its Retatrutide will have on other GLPs and GLP-1s. I'm long VKTX and wondering if I should feel worried about Retatrutide or will there be room for everyone to play in the obesity space?

Familiar-Explorer814

VKTX 😎

TheoryInttro

Well, at least my VKTX is having a +10% day.

Affectionate-Day2743

look, i'm very happy VKTX is up 9%, but i don't understand ***why*** and that concerns me.

Dritzz-9966

No I don't like their fundamentals they're a compounder so it's not the same thing at all. I much prefer LLY, VKTX and a little NVO.

Nefarious_AI_Agent

VKTX reaching for the stars

JackFourj4

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) had the best weight loss data in their phase2 trial, better dan Novo and Lilly. They will either go it alone and become part of the obesity gravy train, or more likely, will soon be bought by a big pharma company for at least 4x the current sp. Sellas Life Sciences (SLS) has an imminent readout of their phase 3 trial in acute myeloid leukemia, which will very likely 10x the current sp in a buyout or 2y after launch of their therapy

CrestCrentist

VKTX. Could be even in the 1-3 year range

Dritzz-9966

Not really, LLY has the brand now. Look at their tirzepatide revenue/growth and compare those to semaglutide. It's pretty crazy. LLY is eating NVO's lunch right now. That's why it's priced so much higher than NVO and why NVO is on a free fall. I'm not saying NVO isn't a good buy. If they can do quality M&A (the only option is pretty much VKTX), then they will have both the product and the marketing/supply chain to compete with LLY. This would be extremely bullish for NVO. But they NEED m&a. What they have now is not enough.

Dritzz-9966

I think the safer stock is LLY. It's a powerhorse. Probably won't see crazy share price movement though. Want to gamble on potential M&A? NVO. But if they fail to get deals done, then I wouldn't like the stock. High risk high reward? VKTX. Disclaimer: I own both VKTX and LLY shares.

Dritzz-9966

NVO is old news. The new thing is dual agent GLP GIP (NVO is single GLP) such as tirzepatide from LLY. Better efficacy, better tolerability, a lot less side effects like nausea/vomiting. LLY is actually not up that much. They have crazy growth with tirzepatide (especially if you compare it to NVO's semaglutide, which is in the low single digits) and are price very, very, very conservatively. Lots of room to grow. NVO is riskier because as I said they don't have a dual GLP GIP and their internal pipeline is not great. Which is why they tried (and failed) to acquire MTSR recently. They will try again with VKTX imo, if they do get it, they may be able to compete with LLY => NVO may grow 500%+ in the next 5 years, easily.

Dritzz-9966

Honestly those results were a little worse than I expected. Yes the share price drop is justifiable because now semaglutide offers nothing more than others. Why would anyone go on semaglutide when you can get better efficacy & tolerability with tirzepatide, and even better + an oral solution with VK2735 in 2 yrs? Long term I believe this is really bad for NVO. Like, really really bad. The only way NVO can rise again is with quality M&A, which basically at this point means only VKTX (because others all have less efficacy, tolerability, or have other problems). Will NVO be willing to spend 20-30B on VKTX (which is a huge premium based on today's share price but is what the CEO is asking for)? I don't know, but for the sake of NVO's shareholders, I sure hope so. Is it a good entry point? It's a gamble in my opinion. As I said, if NVO can get the deal done with VKTX, then a +500% rise over the next few years would be appopriate. But if they can't get the deal done? Very bearish long term outlook then.

Tiberyius

Makes me even more bullish on VKTX