VXX

camdevydavis

This is a well-written piece of financial doomer content, but it's doing something pretty common in this genre: mixing real data points with selective framing, speculation presented as fact, and a narrative that's unfalsifiable by design. Let me break down what's actually solid vs. what's being stretched: **Things that are real or at least grounded:** * The BLS 911,000 job benchmark revision is real. That did happen. The caveat is these revisions happen regularly — sometimes they revise upward too. The author frames it as a scandal; the BLS frames it as normal calibration. * Low volume on up days can indicate distribution. It can also just mean low participation (summer, holiday week, end of quarter). The author picks one interpretation. * The Fed *is* genuinely boxed between inflation and growth concerns — that part of the Warsh characterisation is fair. * Strategic reserves being at multi-decade lows is concerning and worth tracking. **Things that are being stretched or are speculative:** * The $2B dark pool print "102 minutes before the Iran deal" is classic post-hoc pattern matching. Dark pool prints happen constantly. Someone will always have bought before any news event. * "Price up + volume down = distribution" is a technical trading rule of thumb, not a law. End-of-quarter window dressing, light holiday volume, and index rebalancing all produce this pattern without institutional dumping. * The put wall mechanics are real but the conclusion ("floor disappears tomorrow") is presented with far more certainty than the actual options market dynamics warrant. * The Pentagon/market timing claim is being extrapolated from one NBC report into a sweeping theory about coordinated dark pool exits. That's a large inferential leap. * ODTE calls and unusual options flow are normal market activity. Presenting them as a "coordinated pump" requires assuming coordination that isn't demonstrated. **The structural tell:** The piece ends with SQQQ and VXX — instruments that decay over time and are specifically designed for short-term hedging. If this person is wrong for 3 months, they lose most of their position through volatility decay alone. That's not mentioned. The unfalsifiability is the bigger issue: if the market goes down, they're right. If it goes up, it's "institutions pumping before the real crash." There's no condition under which the thesis is wrong. Worth taking seriously: the labor data quality concerns, the oil demand picture, and the Fed's genuine dilemma. Worth discarding: the coordination narrative, the dark pool conspiracy framing, and any specific price/timing predictions.

darth_scion

MSFT a much better indicator than VXX

drakilian

VXX has unironically performed much better this year than Microsoft had

InspectorDabbit_

Okay, LOL Buy more VXX calls, I guess

Moldy_Birdie

1. Have some cash lying around/ spare money in $SGOV that can be accessed any time. 2. See one! You can always get some $VXX to use as a volatility hedge but I would only do that if you can get it near it’s lows. There’s also inverse sector ETFs if you think one sector would be more affected by a crash than the broad market but remember that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Independent_Name_601

It’s flat to trending position. VXX is your indicator of it jumps above 25 we see a bullish trend on VIX. VXX is at around 24.68 Skew is also elevated hence the neutral to positive outlook.

big-mo

VXX calls

thismarketisregarded

You declaring I'm wrong after mere days is hilarious. I wouldn't even trade options that short-dated. lmao. It's been a couple days. Did you even see last night's trading. Did you see QQQ today? Are you purposefully ignoring that the market is red for the first time in a while, and it happened soon after my comment? Buddy, no offense, but I've probably been trading $UVXY, $VXX, and following the VIX longer than you've been of age. It's one of the most complicated products on the market, and you waltz in here like "HUR DUR IT'S THE FEAR INDEX" like you read one CNBC article.

YTLupo

!banbet VXX 31 45d

Flokithedog

so hold VXX?

sylphvanas

Why has VXX dumped the last 2 days when the market has been super red?

Flokithedog

In a red day, my stocks were down, so I bought VXX and USO. They were going great, then he came out and said this and at 3pm, fat red candle. Now VXX USO red, stocks red, everything red, rufff. If it bulls tomorrow okay, but this guy just killed the good game in town

Beagle001

VXX aint done shit

Flokithedog

what pump are you talking about? I made $$$ on USO this morning but everything else besides VXX is red for me

27onfire

No one's gonna save your calls unless they're for USO and VXX. As a parting gift Powell said: Fuck your Calls Here's one for the Bears

bswan206

UVXY and VXX. Usually sell call spreads while in contango. Small position sizes for risk management. If there's a spike, I will usually keep the short and ride it back down again. Cannot overemphasize the importance of risk management and position sizing if you try this.

stoic_suspicious

VXX

DeltaNeutraltrading

Here you have an easy options strategy to be used with VXX. Learn what is VXX and access its free course: [https://www.myoptionsedge.com/the-easiest-vxx-options-strategy](https://www.myoptionsedge.com/the-easiest-vxx-options-strategy) The strategy is very simple.

Defiant_Reindeer662

Can’t forget abt VXX

Beagle001

Maybe VXX just isn't open on tuesdays.

BigWarning8696

I bought call yesterday, VXX calls

softboiledjadepotato

VXX saying, man f\*ck this shit

captainlvsac

I bought Hundreds of VXX shares on friday, lets goooo

Thoughtful_Tortoise

VXX, probably

Electronic_Leg_7034

Smh Waiting. Bear Man. Diamond Bear. Shorted SMH premarket Friday, Got that VXX. Fucking Hate stocks. Just like the Money.

SaltyPlantain1503

Holding VXX between my crossed fingers.. mango is way overdue for a rage tweet.

Electronic-Data-2622

Ok I’m buying VXX, this is a squeeze. Volatility and price are about to both start moving up in tandem from this point forward.

HugeAd5056

I had full port VXX on Friday and closed it out when I saw not one sign of a pullback. Definitely regretting closing that.

HolaMolaBola

Grateful for your insights, thanks! And your good eyes spotted the delta! Turns out delta-neutrality had a single mention in the chapter which I missed. It was buried among a dozen references to a 1:1.5 ratio, making the ratio seem the important thing. Thanks for clearing that up! Yes I'm trying to make money on vol. Just hope I'm working with the correct vol lol because these VIX instruments seem to introduce the *volatility of vol* as another moving part to worry about. I guess I mean that besides delta, this hedge will (I think) negative vega exposure to the volatility of VXX itself. Dunno if that's an example of vol of vol. Thanks again!

ScarletHarpy93

Glad I switched VXX calls last Wednesday. TACO shits the bed again.

iron_condor34

The thing about about subbing vix calls for vxx is that vxx isn't tracking the vix. Same for the other long etp's. VXX holds a basket of the front 2 vix futures contracts. And everyday selling the front month month contract to buy a portion of the 2nd month. To keep a rolling 30-day exposure. So, its tracking the vix futures and not the index. You probably can do it but just know the product itself isn't tracking the vix.

ScarletHarpy93

Exited my VXX puts today and switched into calls. Everyone knows Vence is too busy choking on that hairy Arab cock to talk peace with Iran. Ceasefire will be over by market open.

ScarletHarpy93

I am prepared to watch my VXX puts lose all their value between now and open. TACO always capitulates twice.

D74248

VXX might get entertaining. Which comes back to what I think is the biggest issue here. It is not the rapid inclusion, which is iffy enough, it is the math. This new "3x float rule" could create tremendous upward pressure on the IPO's price as the indexes seek three times the number of shares that are available. And then that money has to come from somewhere, so presumably other stocks are being sold. Of course, if I was so smart I would have a big house on Coogee Beach.

JeffB1517

Obviously if they go public at these valuations totally transparent indexes like VTI get in. Though they do float trade so it happens somewhat slowly. But SP I'm not following. What happens in your mind to finds line VXX?

HaveAKlondike

Reverse H&S on VXX 🤡👀👀👀

SaltyPlantain1503

My VXX calls just sitting, smoking a cigarette, as though the whole world isn’t about to catch on fire.

ClarkNova80

I’m just going to ignore the fact that you’re asking this question like the US market is the only one that exists. Asia is trading right now. Nikkei, Hang Seng, ASX are all live. Middle East exchanges trade on Sundays. Tadawul, Tel Aviv, Dubai. Forex never closes. Crypto never closes. E-mini S&P futures on Globex open Sunday 6PM ET. European pre-market is pricing in moves hours before NY wakes up. CME oil futures are already reacting. Gold and bonds caught the safe haven bid on Friday’s fear and now reverse on Sunday’s de-escalation. Two moves, two trades, same weekend. Volatility spiked on the escalation, so whoever sold premium into that panic on Friday profits massively on the IV crush Monday. VIX products like UVXY and VXX get obliterated on a gap-up open. Whoever shorted vol over the weekend prints. Credit default swaps on defense, energy, and sovereign debt were repricing OTC in real time all weekend. You escalate on Friday after close, let the fear cook all weekend, let every retail trader panic-set their Monday morning orders. Every stop-loss and limit order sitting on the book is visible to market makers. They know exactly where the liquidity is before the bell even rings. Then you leak a de-escalation on Sunday so the algos can scrape the headline and reprice futures in milliseconds while the smart money front-runs the entire move across every open exchange before US retail even wakes up. The people who move markets don’t need the NYSE bell. They have futures, overseas desks, Globex access, headline-scanning algos, OTC desks, FX desks repricing every USD pair in real time, and dark pool positioning before you even open your brokerage app. You don’t.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

matteodzk

Figure technology solution debit spreads, $0.09 spy debit spread, VXX calls.

HugeAd5056

GLD call makes sense XLE put probably gets you nothing SPY put probably gets you nothing if held too long If you’re trading a scenario setup, you have only one high probability scenario: inflation will show up in CPI reports and everyone knows GLD hedges inflation. World wide inflation is inevitable at this point. The only question is how much and for how long. SPY is too resilient thanks to passive holders and optimists. And there’s evidence the war is cooling down, even though two jets were shot down (one of which is an A/10 which is slow enough to be shot down even when it was newer 4 decades ago; this isn’t evidence of much new difficulty). In essence, I doubt SPY pulls back much from here at all really. But if that’s a scenario you envision, you’d be far better off with VXX calls out of the money because they’re way cheaper and if SPY is going to drop that much, VXX will be moving sky high. That and SQQQ. XLE lags oil price. And even if oil decreases but stays elevated you can expect XLE to only go up. This isn’t like past scenarios, and you and others have outlined why where you’ve mentioned it’s not only the Strait that is impeded but also Russian oil. Oil is definitely going to be elevated for a while… XLE’s value isn’t going anywhere. I’d simplify to GLD calls and VXX calls. Less waste. Even if the war was concluded tonight, GLD still rises as inflation hedge. If you don’t think so then the combo might as well be: GLD calls - **inevitable**, lasting inflation (world wide; only question is how much) VXX calls - in case sentiment get worse SPY calls - in case of early resolution

StraitOfHummus

* UVIX * UVXY * VXX * SPXS * SDOW I believe in diversity.

Beginning-Fig-9089

Easy peasy. VIX divided by VXX

wrongrobertpatrick

OIL and VXX calls now

rogerwilcove

Hold some VXX as a hedge especially if it actually dips a lot

iron_condor34

Pretty sure for retail, you would need a covid like event. I think I remember some people talking about being able to do this in GDX during covid. Or possibly the situation with VXX a couple of years ago. But even then, its still really difficult.

Beagle001

Whoever said VXX measures volatility doesn’t know what the fuck to sure talking about. They need to change their branding.

WinstonSalemSmith

I have a lot of SGOV, other bonds and treasuries. I have a large long position in oil that I have been slowly selling. When WTI gets to $150 I will have to sell more. It can't go up forever without hitting global growth, thus reducing demand for oil. Demand destruction. I have puts on JETS for April and want to buy May as well. I have a small position in the QID leveraged inverse ETF. I was in VIX with VXX, but sold. Will buy again if it falls. If you believe USA is trapped in Iran you can take these sorts of positions. If you don't believe this you should avoid such moves.

adamantiumtrader

So VXX $60?

Key_Savings_2870

Yes, you should buy VXX.

drippyterps

Yeah i been trying this but its hard to connect with like minded individuals. I dont really want to DM ppl bc i dont want it to come off as a scam or something. I recently made a video on a live trade explaining how i used VXX as a confluence with QQQ for an entries and breakouts in real time. Im thinking of posting it somewhere to gain some traction but not too sure. I have a discord that i started so im trying to stay consistent in there & be fully transparent. But i want it to be a community of individuals collaborating and educating

eeaxoe

You can buy VXX, but you really shouldn't unless you know what you're doing. And even if you do know what you're doing, you still shouldn't buy it.

Repulsive_Cress6858

For trading VXX options, I have been experimenting with filters to select conditions that correspond to notably fat tails. I have some interesting results. Apparently I cannot just display the distribution chart here, but the z-score for cumulative tail lift on the left side was 75.88 (from trigger day at close to next-day at close). For some context of that that means, this condition happened 4 times so far in March, with 2 cases of a next-day decline at close beyond -10%… plus a 3rd case that was down more than 18% by close of the 3rd day. Out of more than 6,000 filter combinations that I have evaluated so far, this has among the best Z-scores for left tail lift. This filter kept 880 out of the last 8985 trading days of VIX (so typically about 25 per year).

TracyM45

Bouncing like a kid on a new trampoline .$VXX on the way up $SVXY on the way down. Easy money

Dan_Unverified

The actual VIX, not VXX or any other meaningless instrument

ScarletHarpy93

VXX puts weren't a bad play today.

WillInteresting5109

Not sure. But maybe VXX SPXS? These are more for bear markets than stagflation. Maybe someone more knowledgeable can answer.

HugeAd5056

Thanks for sharing. The wrestling guy makes this legendary. But IMO, you have a lot of cash and you need to survive on it. If you have to trade it why not trade on something you know will still leave you with something tomorrow? Like, wheel VXX or USO if you **must** gamble. But if you want to survive, wheel BRK-B, UNH, or SMH. Or IGV. These will keep you afloat.

HugeAd5056

If everyone thinks the crash will be that bad, why are you guys saying you’ll stay out of the market? Shouldn’t you be fully leveraged on VXX, SQQQ, and every put trade you can think of? Market probably goes sideways with a slow decline. Some sectors will still do well, like energy, materials, military, and staples.

frogdujour

There has actually been an unusual shit ton of SPY puts for March 20 bought for 630s-640s strikes over the past 2-3 weeks, plus VXX 36-38 calls, some big players piling in, continuing even today. Next week will be interesting.

phagebiscotti

Hope my SPY puts and VXX calls I bought at close print tomorrow. If they do, will switch to calls for a bounce but who knows what the futures hold

Cinq_A_Sept

Calls. But VXX calls…

WinstonSalemSmith

VXX

LitterBoxServant

Someone this retarded should just hold VXX and get back to working the drive thru

I_am_Nerman

Is there anything that actually tracks VIX that you can buy options on? VIX up 17% and VXX is only up 8%

juzz88

I'll full cum. I need VXX back over 40 to dump these bags. 🤣

treebonk

THE FUCKING MOMENT I capitulated on my VXX puts it legs down mightily and the position doubles 🤡

softboiledjadepotato

Everyday, buy VXX at close and sell at open... Is it really that easy??

I_am_Nerman

This is why I switched from VXX, USO calls to puts today. This skirmish is ending soon

I_am_Nerman

I've been playing a little gay cub lately and probably will a few more days while everyone thinks Iran can last longer than a week in this "war". They can't, though. What little navy they had is destroyed. Their air defense is gone. Attack jets are flying freely across Iran. Their ability to build new missiles is gone. Their ability to wage "war" is almost finished. March VXX, USO calls & SPY, QQQ puts have been paying out and I plan to flip these to April puts & calls soon.

I_am_Nerman

USO, VXX calls & SPY, QQQ puts here

WinstonSalemSmith

VXX today. IRGC standing on business.

I_am_Nerman

I've been playing a little gay cub lately and probably will a few more days while everyone thinks Iran can last longer than a week in this "war". They can't, though. What little navy they had is destroyed. Their air defense is gone. Attack jets are flying freely across Iran. Their ability to build new missiles is gone. Their ability to wage "war" is almost finished. March VXX, USO calls & SPY, QQQ puts have been paying out and I plan to flip these to April calls soon.

softboiledjadepotato

This time I PROMISE to take my VXX gains 🤡

LitterBoxServant

This is too advanced for you. Just hodl VXX until you're ready to stop being a dumbass.

juzz88

I need a full on panic week. Like SPY down 10%. Then we can go back to ripping. Moral of the story, don't buy and hold VXX kids. 🤣

stonescape

VXX, oil, and gold. FXF for the long run. Out of all US equities

I_am_Nerman

USO, VXX calls & SPY, QQQ puts here

TracyM45

Buy the VIX below 13 is free money $VXX

NotBradPitt9

I used to short UVXY and VXX whenever they’d have a spike. So around 1-5 trades a day. Overall I think it’s only worth it if you exit the losing position quickly, but I don’t think it’s sustainable over a prolonged period of time ( 1 year or more) since a volatility spike ends up with you being kicked out of the trade and at a major loss.

Computermanbot

When I closed the VXX trade at the ask at the knife down this morning at open, I went out on the bridge wing to look at the clear blue water of the Bahamas and revel in my own success. I felt a fart creeping and I forced it out, attempting to make a sound worthy of a ship's horn. But the gods saw my hubris and cast dispersions onto my anus hole, and I felt the warm trickling of diarrhea spread down my legs. I was humbled not by the markets but by my own humanity.

Computermanbot

When I closed the VXX trade at the ask at the knife down this morning at open, I went out on the bridge wing to look at the clear blue water of the Bahamas and revel in my own success. I felt a fart creeping and I forced it out, attempting to make a sound worthy of a ship's horn. But the gods saw my hubris and cast dispersions onto my anus hole, and I felt the warm trickling of diarrhea spread down my legs. I was humbled not by the markets but by my own humanity.

Ecstatic_Layer_9736

I remember when playing VXX was fun and then they moved the goal posts

shindiggaa

VXX is a long term investment

stonescape

VXX quietly trending up, fxf near all time high, AI cash burn insane. Seems like a bunch of dry timber waiting for a match. Don't try to time it, just trade the ride down

First-Republic-145

VXX callz 🗣️🗣️🗣️

tribbans95

You can not buy shares of VIX, it is an index. What you can buy, the VIX-linked ETPs (VXX, UVXY) experience severe, compounding, and consistent decay (often 48%-59% annually)

jaboyles

I took profits on my VXX calls cuz I'm a silly bitch.

Unsavory1

VXX up almost %7. timfugginburrr

No-Sympathy-686

I like the part where VXX said, its Vxxing time! And then vxx'ed all over us...

Least_Research_254

VXX 🤭

kazkeb

Right now I'm essentially short on SPY, SLV, and USO, and long on TLT and VXX Please God, let the market open the way futures are right now and I promise that I'll never touch myself again

daviddjg0033

Yes VXX call or UVXY shares. Agree and agree

softboiledjadepotato

Some of you aren't watching VIX futures rise along with the market and it shows. VXX

greyenlightenment

amazing how some random person online invented the best trading method: hedging bad news by shorting btc.way better than VXX.UVXY or puts.

JuniorEntertainer819

I’m glad I bought VXX calls

JuniorEntertainer819

I’m glad I bought VXX calls. 🚀

Cinq_A_Sept

My VXX calls say fk you! Up we go!

jmc774

VXX calls are calling my name...thots?

Putrid_Leg_1474

Tomorrow might be a good day to short VIX in some way. I'll be looking at ATM, VIX, UVXY, and VXX put spreads. But I'm sure you all think spreads are regarded. For those that must buy calls out of stubbornness, some extremely liquid SVXY leaps will do the trick

SavedSaver

I sell cash secured puts with good success beside swing trading and being outright long AI and related theme stocks. I am not initiating any new put sells because the US government run by a mad man is spinning out of control and anything can happen. I have been trading since the late 60's and I sense this time it is really going to be different specially if trillions managed by robo tradres are getting loose at the same time. I have reduced positions, putting on VXX hedges and started putting on far out of the money bearish put spreads.