WW International Inc
I know him well (his views). We actually probably agree on alot. Fed is far from restrictive and know it, WILL fix it and IMO purposely over tighten. God help us if inflation really takes over. I'll try to fit in watching video. One point (he may or may not have mentioned) is that an historic event occured in the early 70s that for some reason everyone ignores. The US abandoned the gold standard. Sure, we had no choice, but the impact of that was profound regardless. It literally makes historic monetary data worthless to compare to. Absolutely worthless. Yet pundits never mention that. If your a history buff you know how badly England buggered up going back on the gold standard after WW1. That mistake (IMO) was a direct cause of both the global depression AND WW2 tho not the only one of course. I do think if done right it would have been sufficient to avoid both. Imagine how the world would be now! Good luck in our strange new world.
This rally actually have some legs. Oil prices are way down, other commodities are also way down and these were the things that caused a spike in inflation for the most part. The FED is about to slow down the rates hike and they won't stay high for long because the US debt is so high that keeping interest rates high for long make it impossible to service the debt. Moreover we saw that the food crisis improved because Russia let Ukrainian wheat to be exported lowering prices and the potential social crisis in Africa, we now know that NATO won't intervene in Ukraine so a potential WW3 is excluded and the recession in the US will be mild. China lowering interest rates is also a good thing for the world economy because their economy is huge. The main problem I see is Europe which will have a very big recession this coming winter. I hope wisdom will prevail there and they'll remove the oil sanctioned they imposed on Russia (tbh this was an auto-sanction because Russia just moved their export to China and India and is not impacted whatsoever by the oil boycott from Europe so it's truly a suicide move by the EU). If they remove that sanction their inflation will go down too and the ECB won't have to tight that much. We will see but I do believe there are reasons to be optimistic about the future
Anything past that is just wild speculation - you’d have to imagine what that crisis looks like. Zombie apocalypse? Meteor strike? WW3? Don’t think anyone is really qualified enough to consider what investment is best in a meteor strike scenario vs a WW3 scenario
My great grandfather was a lawyer during the great depression. People needed legal work but couldn't pay so he accepted payment in title to land. Most of this was land in Southern Florida that wasn't worth much especially during the depression. Fast forward to the post WW2 era and after the big South Beach Miami boom. My great grandfather owned a fortune of land in one of the biggest booming areas of Florida. So, my idea would be to buy land that seems worthless or that you can take from people who are desperate.
Oh really a bear does believe we're in bear market? No joke. The Persian Gulf crisis was not a big deal? Trump trade war with china was like ez money? Venezuela going belly up was also just business as usual? 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia was not even close to WW3? 2015 Chinese stock market crash was no problem for these robust supply lines? I can basically go on forever. I don't think we go full bull market now. We will go down again but lows are in and there's no cliff and bears will sit and watch at best or lose their puts at worst but that's the bear life condemned to predict a crash every year but never make money.
Funny read ria.ru comments even Russia is throwing shade at China. Not so much BFFs in eyes of the Ruski peoples. Maybe Russia is planning WW3 so they can just turn face halfway through and divvie up the losers just like WW2.
I don’t think it would happen either. But How can the west fight in WW3 when they have no oil to even fight? Europe is screwed right now. JB is blowing through the SPR. What fuel is the west going to use for their military ships/plans/vehicles if China times it right? I wouldn’t discount Russia assisting China (incidentally or not). For example, they cut off Europe’s energy then USA goes to assist Europe providing oil only further dwindling their SPR supply
The story here tonight is a typical WW II romantic intrigue, just another evening at Raoul’s place, involving a future opium shipment being used by Tamara as security against a loan from Italo, who in turn owes Waxwing for a Sherman tank his friend Theophile is trying to smuggle into Palestine but must raise a few thousand pounds for purposes of bribing across the border, and so has put the tank up as collateral to borrow from Tamara, who is using part of her loan from Italo to pay him. But meantime the opium deal doesn’t look like it’s going to come through, because the middleman has been heard from in several weeks, along with the money Tamara fronted him, which she got from Raoul de la Perlimpinpin through Waxwing, who is now being pressured by Raoul for the money because Italo, deciding the tank belongs to Tamara now, showed up last night and took it away to an Undisclosed Location as payment on his loan, thus causing Raoul to panic. Something like that.
We have a very long history of fighting with Russia, starting in the 1700s at least. We lost a lot. Of course the last war, conventional one, was WW2. At that point we had to choose between supporting Hitler, who promised to never allow further territorial loses (Russia took us in 1940 Moldova and Hungarians a part of Transylvania) and the big threat that Russia was to our capitalist system, our culture and our identity. We had to choose because the alliance system with France and UK was disfunctional and not capable to protect us anymore. After WW2 we had a nice "gift" from the western powers and we entered the Soviet influence zone, with all the mass killings, economic and cultural rapes and the communist regime that lasted until 1989. But, there was an unseen war all this period. In fact, even during the communist Romanian regime after 1960 (Russian troops went out only in 1958), every military drill was involving a scenario in which an unnamed eastern great power would invade, not a western one, as was supposed considering we were part of the eastern side of the iron curtain. The fight continues even these days, as their agents and porte-paroles are ever present. Romania lost a lot because of the Russian politics in the region. We have a part of our territory now called Republic of Moldova still under a big threat, and other parts as a poisonous gift from the Russians in 1990 as part of Ukraine: the south of Moldova and Bukovina, with the city of Cernăuți. We haven't seen the Ukrainians upset that they got those places with the Romanian populations living there, on the contrary, they started a denationalization effort, even recently they tried to implement a new education law that was practically disolving any education in the native language or acces to your cultural heritage. That was postponed after Romania and other countries, like Poland or Czech protested and menace to stop the process of including Ukraine in the EU. Then the war broke out. That's way I said there isn't much difference between Russian and Ukrainian politics, the same middle ages approach on some key aspects. Of course, we now support them heavily, choosing the little evil from the bigger one. We have more then 1.5 million refugies here, we gave them jobs, places to live, school in their language, medical care etc. I would very much love to see we're this is heading and who knows, to see that mentalities at some point, under the influence of economics, will change.
Everyone still remembers the 2020/2021 rally and they still want it continue. Retail has been taught to but the dips. So unfortunately this will never really crash unless something major happens financially or a WW3 moment. Right now everyone is back in Buy mode until that happens we could retest 4600s easily
For the US, debt to GDP ratio was falling like a rock post WW2. After 20+ years of war, the economic powerhouses like the US and Japan (minus the war) have picked all the low hanging fruit and the bill is coming due. I don't see a logical argument that this is sustainable. There's too much bad debt out there that simply needs to be wiped away somehow, not covered up with things like QE. Everyone is trading monopoly money. If we think for a second inflation fears have subsided, that's awfully short sighted. Simple economics demonstrates that countries with enormous debt loads will never pay them back with money valued anywhere near what it is today. Yes, I'm saying the 30 year T Bill is basically the worst among common investments. If a company had the financials of the US, along with a recent history of barely making good on payment dates, it would be junk status.
I’ve been speaking with people close to the matter. That’s all I’m willing to say. This whole thing is fucked. Did you know those HIMARS and ammo isn’t free? That Ukraine will be indebted to the US after the war? The UK paid off it’s WW2 debt in the year 2020.
Out of all those threats, nuclear war and a conflict with China leading to WW3 the biggest and most immediate threat. That can lead to our civilization, not only stock markets cease to exist Climate change, pandemics, natural disasters… happened a thousand times during human 10,000 years of history. We recovered and rebuilt everytime
US post WW2 boom was caused by pent-up domestic consumer demand after 4 years of rationing. In addition, manufacturing capacity had been increased for weapons and could be repurposed to civilian production, and 12 million men rejoined the civilian labor force after demobilization. So while the rest of the world was dealing with a devastated economy, that was not the major contribution to US post war growth.
Michael Burry on twitter- The last 2 inflationary periods in the United States: the 1940s/50s and the 1970s- each had 3 distinct inflationary peaks. 1920s: Post-flu, WW1 nihilism 1940s: post war spend, baby boom 1970s: bad energy and fed policy 2020s: All the above
Since the beginning of the market EVERY permabear has been wrong. The Great Depression, WW1, WW2, tech bubble... all serious problems, all have recovered. You don't need a PhD to see that. Could this be the end of the market all together? That is possible, but I really doubt it. Will the DOW rise to 36,000 again and go higher? All of the market's history suggests it will eventually.
Those lazy British (and other euro trash losers) really did nothing all for technology. All those super productive and extremely low wage AMERICAN field workers did nothing either. The ones that chose not to leave their place of work because they love America so much. The willing individuals that America casually "invited" over to that great country of yours to help do the labour all those other AMERICANS were simply too busy being great to do themselves. All those AMERICAN scientists that were invited over after WW2. The ones that would rather be great AMERICANS than sit through the formality of a silly war crimes trial. All those AMERICANS that immigrated from europe to become the labour force of America while white protestant AMERICANs did everything they could to keep the workers from succeeding.
What if WW3 is already happening but we're all too blind to see it. * China using zero-covid policy to reduce aggregate supply to cripple western economies with higher inflation * Russia weaponizing energy to cripple western economies with higher inflation JPow: 🙈 "Inflation is transitory™" Normies: 🤡🤝🎪"We should move manufacturing out of china to reduce inflation." "Look at how RUB/USD crashed."
Yes, either bull or bear you need to have your own thesis and stick to it. CNBC, Market watch, analysts… all have their own agenda, whatever they say is absolutely not for our interests While I agree with some headwinds above, many are too far out to be priced, such as spillover of Russian war or invasion of Taiwan. These will ignite a WW3 but low chance at the moment. China and Canada has 25% GDP from real estate, letting it collapsed will lead to political instability & social chaos, they will not let it fall (read China already instructs regional bank to ease up mortgage approval). Being careful is great, but overthinking and you’ll never have the gut to buy
I also gave over 600 souls a life to live, but also with the knowledge of committing a mortal sin. Their hubris will be the end of them, which I find hilarious. So being drafted would be icing on the cake. Just icing, the cake is still delicious even when you can’t see them. ![img](emote|t5_2th52|4271) There barely is no forgiveness for committing a child to doom. You can’t accept what is called Jesus into your hearts, you can’t accept the prophet Mohammed into your heart, you can’t accept reality being a simulation with the souls mine for the taking. Kings concern themselves with material wealth for the short span of their time, I enjoy eternity, whether it be my pleasure or the suffering of others. WW3 will happen, and if it doesn’t I still win in the long run. My vengeance will come in this life or the next.
I pulled most of my investments out of the market except Progenity ( now Biora ). My wife made a comment about Putin and starting WW3, I thought about, watched the troop buildup, then promptly pulled my money out of most investments into cash…I got really lucky.
Don’t you regards remember anything? Market has already priced in CPI. As well as WW3, meteoroids and climate change outlook for year 2100. Also the algos are listening to every word we say already, so it’s kinda evident what’s gonna happen tomorrow. Jeez
>If conflict between Taiwan and China kicks off then expect that number to rocket right back up. If China invades Taiwan inflation will be the least of your worries, as the whole US navy sails out to fight ght WW3 and you're covering at home. It won't happen, China has a strong economy *only* as long as West keeps buying their products, they need us and we need them.
So we can better understand how Russia’s military operates for the eventual WW3. Or because taking over an independent sovereign country and disposing of its democratically elected government is cringe nowadays and “evil triumphs when good men do nothing.”
Haven't had time to digest it. Headline price tag of about USD400 billion strikes me as more of a proof of concept than an actual energy transition plan. If we've learned one thing, it's that crushing fossil fuel production before you have an alternative source in place at scale doesn't work, that missing energy has to come from somewhere or people will have to radically adjust where and how they live. We are seeing a tiny hint of that (and it's obvious political effects) in 2022. Having a workable alternative at scale really means an economic and industrial transformation the like of which we haven't seen since WW2. You'll need more like USD 5 trillion to execute that. Once it's done, it'll outcompete fossil fuels by itself and they'll fade away. But you need to build it first or the lights just go out.
So corporations have been instructed to rescind job offers and stop interviewing for medium to high paying jobs…they’re going to fuk people up in the name of inflation control…add to this coming layoffs…and boy they’re laying people off…in one case I personally know, a firm is shutting down an entire line of business, that’s hundreds of jobs right there… These mfers just constantly cut through people as if they’re nothing…bring on WW3…this shit is taking an ugly turn by thanksgiving
A single dose of integrating virus is known to cause leukemia in gene therapy patients in the 90s, 1 exposure to mustard gas caused multiple hematologic malignancies in WW1 & 2, and there are hundreds of other compounds/agents that cause cancer after a single exposure. You clearly don't have a basic understanding of biology - I'd caution against you trying to interpret the data.
You can amass serious wealth by investing in dividend stocks and reinvesting the dividend. This is how the WW2 generation/early baby boomers did it and the ones that did it were able to leave behind generational wealth. If generational wealth is your goal take it slow and steady.