WW

czl

>> Notice to double money supply and double prices / incomes is a hassle but it does not really change wealth only the units used to measure it. > One small quibble here. Were the injection of the money supply uniform that would be true. But it generally isn't. Indeed this is true. What I described happens when perhaps Euros replace some native currency. All the prices and balances are scaled by some constant factor but wealth does not change just the units to measure it changes. >>The government (including the central bank) have to pick points of injection in the economy. Those points of injection do experience a real increase in wealth, often dramatically. Indeed. If money supply is doubled by just printing up the cash whoever gets to spend that cash has applied a 50% spending power tax to all others who hold that currency. > The things closest to them experience an increase in income and investment (depending) before their underlying costs go up. While the things furthest away experience an increase in costs generally before their own income goes up. This gets called "economic distortion" in less charitable language. Yes. In less charitable language it is also called outright theft by some. But what is it really? It is a tax on spending power. Like all other taxes there is "economic distortion". It can be good. It can be bad. Depends on what the collected tax is used for. Unreasonable to use it to prevent economic heart attack during emergency economy shutdown by redistribution of spending power? If there is a good use can there be a better one? >> To slow the economy down the cost of capital has to be above inflation not below it. > Again I mostly agree. Negative real interest rates are all other things being equal highly inflationary. They certainly encourage excess borrowing, money supply expansion and economic expansion. But they are not all determining. Take a hypothetic where the Federal Government raises income taxes and corporate taxes to 80%, slashes transfer payments but the Fed cuts rates to 1%. We still go into a depression and fairly quickly 1% is too high. To soak up spending power via higher taxes is certainly another way to slow down the economy but this route likely takes far longer and is more unpopular and more error prone that boosting short term interest rates. How often does a democracy vote itself 80% taxes? When public spending exceeds what is collected democracies attempt to outgrow their debts when possible and inflate them away otherwise. Taxes on investment and taxes on corporate activity discourage both which is undesirable. Consumption taxes I think are best but not easy to implement - I have an idea how but that would be a long tangent discussion. > One of the big problems the USA has been having is many states and some municipalities aren't doing deficits to stabilize spending. They all have a lot less long term financing than they had say 50 years ago. The net result is a lot of stimulus and austerity coming from state and municipal governments which undermine the effectiveness of simple interest rate models. I understand your individual words but not what they mean when put in that order. How would you explain this to someone that knows close to zero about American state and municipal taxation and spending? >> How can we know this time will be different? Are the politics different? > FWIW I think we are a lot closer to the situations in the late 1940s and early 1950s than the ones in the mid 70s and early 80s. The politics is a lot different today. And because you think America today is closer to the situation in the late 1940s and early 1950s you think economics of those decades is **more likely** to repeat than economics from the mid 70s and early 80s? What happened in the late 1940s and early 1950 was: https://countrystudies.us/united-states/history-114.htm >>> The Postwar Economy: 1945-1960 United States History As the Cold War unfolded in the decade and a half after World War II, the United States experienced phenomenal economic growth. The war brought the return of prosperity, and in the postwar period the United States consolidated its position as the world's richest country. Gross national product, a measure of all goods and services produced in the United States, jumped from about $200 thousand-million in 1940 to $300 thousand-million in 1950 to more than $500 thousand-million in 1960. More and more Americans now considered themselves part of the middle class. My guess is that this post WW2 growth surge was due to America helping replace stuff (and production capacity for stuff) destroyed abroad in WW2 (Marshall plan etc) and also meeting backlog demand suppressed by WW2 and also cold war preparing for WW3. This time around we had economic shutdowns due to COVID and a cold war with China is starting yet nothing has destroyed production capacity abroad so can America grow much via exports? Without desperate export markets abroad (like after WW2) what will juice America's domestic growth? Are you thinking the Ukraine war will spread in Europe and get more destructive? That and a destructive conflict with China undermines Japan and South Korea and Taiwan? > For example: workers in the 1970s had been through 50 years of government policy redistributing wealth down; workers in the 2020s have been through 40 years of government policy redistributing wealth up. You describe the sentiment but is "government policy redistributing wealth up" necessary? You start with 100 and I start with 200 and over decades of economic stability my wealth will pull away from yours even if we both have the same compounding returns from investments. Left alone just the compounding returns from investments redistributes wealth "upwards" does it not? And with unequal ability and unequal rates of growth to catch up with lottery winners (business, birth, ...) can be difficult. This is why I ask whether "government policy redistributing wealth up" is necessary? If you have private property and stability this redistribution upwards of wealth just naturally happens over time, does it not? And when you say: > workers in the 1970s had been through 50 years of government policy redistributing wealth down Those old policies to redistribute wealth down have they been removed? Just eroded? Perhaps the real difference was that we lost after effects of forced government policy to destroy vast wealth (WW2) and then government policy to both destroy and invest vast wealth in preparation for WW3? Compare society sitting fat and happy on wealth vs being hungry to rebuild destroyed wealth and being eager to prepare for the next big wealth destruction event (WW3). The motivation and results will be different. The market power of labor vs capital will certainly be different. Why do you suppose the power of unions waned? Was it because of the roll back of their rights? No. I think what happened was their market power was undermined by global trade. My own fear is we may be at a time like before WW1 on the precipice of a Thucydides Trap with China as the west was at the time with the rising economic and military power of Germany.

PUTYOURBUTTINMYBUTT

The same reason the economy right before WW1 and WW2.

jscoppe

WW3 now imminent.

Patmcpsu

This is especially concerning if WW3 happens and we have an enemy close to us. Russia/China could start massing troops/artillery near our border.

Mathematical_Caveman

Germany tried to get Mexico to join them in WW2. The only reason Mexico didn't interfere is because a US Spy intercepted the message. Now that communication is a lot easier than before, it is no different than what Hitler was trying to accomplish. All we are seeing is a modernized version of WW1 and WW2 being reenacted. But, if Mexico leaves NATO for BRICS, then that is their decision, and that will break our alliance that we have built with them. That would cripple their economy and take them from a 2nd world country to a 3rd world country, and they will be no different than Guatemala or Honduras. Only the Americans would benefit from them leaving us. That would give us a reason to strengthen our borders and stop liberals from letting anyone over the line for their votes. Unless they push "New World Order" and decentralize everything and join BRICS as well. Which is also a possibility. The whole goal of New World Order is to have 1 government and 1 rule and to enslave the public. So, we'll have to wait and see what happens.

Common-Buy-2379

Soon you won't need it, I suppose. Unless the US sets up internment camps like they did in WW2.

Working_Western9070

The US used to be somewhat free before WW2. You think you "own" something in the US? Stop paying taxes and see how long you get to keep your house and property. US has better smoke and mirrors. At this point it's just as corrupt but we are being told it's the good/democratic kind of corruption

Interesting-Bend3210

WW3 loading....

louistran_016

Or it could go to 6000, or China can invade Taiwan and start WW3 next week, “could” “should” “might” doesn’t mean shit, and Jeremy won’t be there to be responsible to your loss or profit

MommasDisapointment

WW3 is bullish for all defense stocks. You know the contractors will manufacture another conflict.

bearhunter429

Unless WW3 breaks out or something major like that, you'll never see $380s ever again. Even $390s will be a history after tomorrow. 🤌

DependentPast804

The Ottoman Empire fought against the U.a. In WW1.

zenn103

WW3 drives inflation up bro.

Astral_Inconsequence

It will. It's been around for 170 years through the civil war, the great depression, WW2, and 2008. I have no questions about it's liquidity and even if I did I'm under the FDIC limit. Good luck persuading everyone your crypto is the future, because the ponzi scheme only works if someone is there to buy your boondoggle for more than you did.

Adventurous-Date-397

Being a bear is sad LMAO They literally sit around stroking their cocks hoping for WW3 

JH_Rockwell

Even if the economy became post WW1-Germany, they'd be forced to smile and say "things are all good".

BoomerImpairedShtSux

The overthrow we are pretty good at. The putting something else in place since WW2 not so much.

pizzarelatedmap

ya but how else are you going to bring the world to it's knees so that WW3 can begin in earnest

Azure_Bill_Shock

China has just made Russia their vassal state. WW3 is well on its way and the window to dispel them of the notion that the West is weak, full of fifth columnists and ripe for the picking is fading fast.

nanaboostme

***" SPY is done with 300s forever. You'll never see 300s again unless WW3 breaks or something."*** \- u/bearhunter429

nanaboostme

*"SPY is done with 300s forever. You'll never see 300s again unless WW3 breaks or something."* 

nanaboostme

*"SPY is done with 300s forever. You'll never see 300s again unless WW3 breaks or something."* **-** u/bearhunter429

bearhunter429

SPY is done with 300s forever. You'll never see 300s again unless WW3 breaks or something. 🤌

Vegan_Honk

We sure do raise the white flag often. Drugs, covid, inflation. Last goddamn win seems to be WW2. 

Envergado

WW3 mooning

Longjumping-Dish4556

if not pause, there needs to a future event that justifies a cut withouth making them look totally foolish. WW3 is the only solution to save face

pizzarelatedmap

bro anyone who is paying attention understands WW3 *has already begun* and will continue to escalate indefinitely.

MindlessPotatoe

1 bank per day collapse? Bullish af. Increasing the balance sheet during 6%+ inflation, also Bullish af. At this point WW3 & loosing reserve status would be bullish af and we would rally

iRockYourMomsWorld

WW3 would probably be a welcome distraction from the constant stream of “the smart and fancy bois fucked up at the level of crayon eating regards YET AGAIN” news pouring in …

bearhunter429

We gonna SMASH through $400 tomorrow and you'll never see 300s ever again unless WW3 breaks out. 🤌

zugglit

Then, the banks get bailed out and they pay extra taxes on the national debt for the rest of their short lives until WW3.

Trellopalikar

WW3

BeneficialEffect

WW3 of course

garoomugove

WW3 makes Lockheed Martin money

Next_Ad_5994

Considering the Biden administration has refused to support peace talks at the beginning, and now says “fuck no” to a cease fire, it appears to be WW3.

Captain_Danke

Can’t wait for them to bring back WW1 era diseases because they don’t believe in anti biotics anymore.

Lower-Daikon9463

Growing up I heard this exact same thing but the moment the economy became dead man walking it was Nixon taking us off the gold standard. It was probably Bretton Woods before that. And before that WW1, bimetallism before that, Civil War before that.

OTTER887

China is already our number 1 import partner. China controlling Taiwan would not change our access to chips. We sure as hell wouldn't start WW3 over Taiwan.

FaulkingDegenerate

Yeah but then you wonder how American consumerism came about, when during WW2 we prided ourselves on “American made.” The reason people over consume is because of marketing and the psychology behind advertising. The problem stems from corporate greed to push the bottom line up every year. If corporations were content with a 12% return year over year I don’t think we’d have a financial issue. The issue arises when corporations get 12% one year, demand 15% the next and so on. The profiteering never stops and it’s absurd because you can’t increase profits every year something has to break (cough: firing workers, not increasing wages, breaking the damn economy, etc). Also money has been fiat since gold backing taken away. This whole system is run on “faith.”

vegaseller

To be fair, I think they will try to start WW3 before it all comes tumbling down

MikeMiller8888

WW2 ended with the use of nuclear weapons. It’s far more likely any WW3 would start with the use of those same weapons.

MikeMiller8888

WW2 ended with the use of nuclear weapons. It’s far more likely any WW3 would start with the use of those same weapons.

ElFantastik

Fuck this life I welcome WW3, this Earth needs cleansing.

Miserable_Promise484

Implying a war with Russia would look like WW3 and not just be a massacre on rout of Russian forces followed by an internal coup before putin can pull the trigger.

Malagan2030

Can someone start WW5, so my puts can print plzzz ???

KingKrab14

Let’s not use hyper inflation so freely. Hyperinflation is generally defined as +50% per month. While the 70s saw high inflation in the USA it wasn’t 50% month to month. Hyperinflation is what happened in post WW1 Germany and Zimbabwe, where the currency effectively just became useless. But yeah 70s was a shit decade for stocks

Crustysockshow

They got a lot more than 2023 correct, they also got the start of WW2 market lows of ‘42, the bear market of ‘66, dot com bubble ‘99, Great Recession of ‘08. Literally almost all of this is correct

CDB1299

I’m fully convinced bears would cheer and hope for WW3 to happen if it meant they make huge gains

daisy2day

Jpow going to raise .25. Bank crisis averted. Fed going to raise insured amount to a million. WW3 on hold. We all know what this means for the market!

Pengufen

Thanks Nixon for abandoning the gold standard in the 70s after we just reintroduced it after WW2!

DefinitionOfTakingL

Fuck vegans vegetarians and soyboys, only sigmas are gonna survive WW3

Tiny_Interaction3704

If the government bails out the banks (which they will) doesn't that mean that BTC will drop again? So the rally and the hype is only temporary and the people that buy in now wouldn't like they be holding the bags after and so short sellers are taking this rally as an opportunity to dump their bags in investors thinking that the end is near. If the end is near wouldn't that make BTC wortless? Or will it still be worth something after WW3 ir SHTF?

zombie_harv

They’ll definitely increase in value after WW3 and the Great Purge

2relentless2die

Xi said he " shares similar goals " with putin... WW3 back on the table

KingSurfer2001

I was tucking my puts into bed and they whispered *WW3 soon* and winked at me. #😳

the_shalashaska

Biggest risk of 2023-2024 is escalation in Ukraine. Poland publicly stating they will enter the war if they sense Ukraine will not win. If Poland enters, hard to not see parallels to WW scenario. Biggest black swan would be Russian use of tactical nukes to try and force an end to the war.

Girthquake4117

If they perp walk him it's for a JFK type of shooting. Then calls on riots and probably WW3

gamerqc

My opinion: it's all going down this year, with a possible WW3 looming.

charly371

why nobody mentions the obvious solution: WW3 ?

Juliet_Whiskey

Technically we’ve been in late stage capitalism since the end of WW1

Goat_in_the_water

Market will go up until WW3 has officially begun

MaNewt

We won’t be worried about our economy in WW3 if that’s what you mean. Don’t have time for worrying about much.

LosingMoneyMorePB

WW3 coming boys!!!

Soplop

WW3 has entered the chat. USA will go to any length to keep the USD as the world’s reserve currency.

steelhouse1

If by Revolution you mean WW3… then likely.

kuprenx

will russia give back chinease historical lands they hold since WW2?

BeamStop23

WW3 would be the war to end all wars

BuzzyShizzle

After BRIC and NATO get this shit over with it would seem. Each side does not rely on trade with the other or its WW3.

HodloBaggins

WW3 will be over before you can get outta bed

dagiantfox87

But is WW3 enough to get us outta GD2?

dafazman

We need a 3rd button for "Start WW3"

Sa404

The first one lasted 10 years and that’s only thanks to WW2

hardcore_softie

That's probably a good WW3 portfolio.

Eslooie

The social programs didn't do it. WW2 did. We ramped up manufacturing and were the only super power that didn't see our economy literally bombed out by the end.

KevtheKnife

That’s as valuable as a French WW2 rifle.

JosephSaber945

WW3 hasn't even started and the US weapons stocks are already being depleted in Ukraine and the West are still busy with Trans and homosexuality Who lives a clown will die a clown 🤡🎪🃏

ddt70

And dodgy WW2 gold.

Outside-Cat7186

global financial collapse can we averted only if: 1.) Aliens land on Monday 2.) WW3 starts on Monday

Sandrokotos

If WW3 breaks out, would exchanges be able to fulfil my puts?

obiwang

Xi visiting Moscow tomorrow WW3 incoming

Few_Faithlessness640

“War is always good for economies that win said war.” Spoken like a true aussie that only engages in wars that they can minimally participate in, and still claim to be a victor and attempt to profit from. The rest of the world that doesn’t engage in war purely to maintain the illusion that they have military value of their own, disagrees. SOME benefit, most do not. The current conflict of Russia v Ukraine is INCREDIBLY costly to the US. Guess what all the elites you reference are invested in. The stock market. Guess what their fluid assets are in. USD. But the risk of Putin steamrolling Ukraine and then invading Poland is massive. It’s worth the money to prevent WW3. As much as you would love to believe that you are the Noam Chomsky of Australia, you don’t know sh**. You can claim you didn’t say that the reason for war is that it boosts the US economy, but you explicitly said that US financial interest is the reason the war happened. You explicitly said that the financial benefit is why the war happened. As for NATO pushing east, here’s the easy way to understand it. More countries wanted to join NATO because they knew Putin was exactly who he has proved himself to be. That simple. Do you think all of those countries just love the US that much? No. They know Russia is a sack of sh** and they want protection. Protection, I will add, that YOUR country hides behind as you run your mouth about my country. On the Hitler note: There have been 2 modern world wars. Apologies that you are so triggered by a name that you can’t see past it, to the obvious tactical information behind that. The tactical aspect is simple. If you can get an easy win, you can more easily mobilize your country to war, and keep popular opinion on your side. Not difficult to understand, pal. Very simple concepts. Might want to do the math before calling someone else a buffoon. As for your claim that the US has invaded the most countries: You must be 16 years old to be that stupid about world war stats. You think a country that has only been around for a few hundred years has invaded the most countries? LOL. Seriously, bro. Stop while you’re behind. Throw a few shrimp on the Barbie, and do what you’re best at. Nothing.

Few_Faithlessness640

Man, if your intelligence could match up to your smugness, you might not have had to write a 4 paragraph long dodge to answering my question. IF, and this is a big old IF, the war in Ukraine is good for the US economy (which it blatantly is not, and if you were even slightly aware of the chaos it is causing the US financial system right now, you would delete your idiocy while you can still avoid more people reading it) and the reasoning behind the war is boosting the US economy, then why precisely did Russia start the war? If it were genuinely beneficial to the US, Putin would not participate. That aside, some of your opinions on aggressive US policy is accurate. BUT, last time we had a world war, the US stayed uninvolved. It didn’t pan out too well. If Putin intended for Ukraine to be his equivalent of Hitler’s Poland, then making it long, costly, and unpopular is a brilliant move to prevent WW3, not cause it. Attacking and invading your neighbors is inexcusable, regardless of what completely unrelated countries are doing. (US + NATO)

ElongMuskrat

I'm not pretending I know, nor can you. But Russia had a deal with NATO not to push further east and NATO broke that deal. US has been behind most war events since 9/11 and forced everyone else to get behind it. Clearly US pumping money into Ukraine is not only supporting this but driving it. Where were they in 2014. A passenger jet even got shot down, but I doubt you remember that because you are in US and didnt have a care back then but suddenly its popular and you are an expert. Do yourself a favour, look at a map of where all the nukes are. China and russia are surrounded by US nuclear weapon sites. Do yourself another favour and watch John Pilgers The Coming War On China. all of this... ALL OF THIS... is the US trying to maintain dominance while realising it is losing it. Hence why it got involved in this war because its actually part of a bigger one WW3. Which involved at exactly the same time as taking on Russia in a proxy war via \[checks notes again\] Ukraine. US saw advantages, mostly someone else gets nuked if it goes south. But this is about US versus the East. not just about Russia and for US it is nothing to do with Ukraine as for the money, you are also dumb as a brick about that clearly. War makes money it is also a great way to get rid of your shit old weapon stock and fund your defense baseline. How? By getting dumb monkeys like you to support the war then they fund Ukraine on the promise Ukraine spend that money on US weapons (old shit they dont want). Honestly mate, you havent a god damn clue. Its the oldest army trick in the book. now sit the fk down so I dont have to write another essay at you on what a dumb ass you are.

Heloflight

Next up WW3 to make everyone else pay and our market again goes up.

Mundus6

If he pause, we will get a rally for sure. But what happens when the economy goes to toast? Yes if you're a trader you should be happy if we get a rally. But long term, its not sustainable. Better keep rates high and let people burn. Than to have germany post WW1 inflation.

Rlxkets

> Seems like usa, UK, Europe, China, Russia are all participating in a war even though not directl It's called a cold war and the US and Russia have been at it since 1945. Its a WW when all the pretext disappears and everyone starts shooting everyone instead of having spats in little countries no one cares about like Korea, Vietnam or Ukraine