WW

RecentLeave343

No one knows because no one can predict the future, (even though plenty try). IMO the market will find the bottom and it will probably hover around there until the POTUS cycle. Unless WW3 happens, then God help us all.

throwwayhubu

In fact, by WW 2 the US was seeing high conscription rates in small part to the fact that a lot of americans valued the army's ability to feed them regular meals each day. WW2 also helped spurr growth to really lift the US out of the economic slog for good and there is an interesting paper out there that argues that we will not see the 7% annualized growth rates because we do not have that massive war stimulus (i forgot the author if someone knows please link).

wild_b_cat

I'm guessing you mean that sarcastically? But I mean it non-sarcastically. The stock market more or less survived WW2. The Great Depression was worse, but the world has learned a lot about running a stable financial system since then. I ain't saying nothing bad is gonna happen, but trying to predict what will happen or when is a fool's errand, and not a good reason to depart from sound financial practices.

Cycles_wp

So... the great depression, WW2, COVID fear lockdown, and the global housing crisis. What are in now, some inflation? Cmon bro... this is the bottom

maceman10006

Look at a 30 year chart of the S&P 500. In the post WW2 era, the S&P doubles about every 10 years. The indexes are an instrument used to transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient.

Ivanovic-117

If WW3 starts, might as well forget about the market. Will be gone

Jimbeauxer

Is it possible to have a 3 way relationship with two chicks without them starting WW3?

JM555555

Monkey pox , possible variant of Covid and a potential WW3 may stretch the Average recover period further

tarranoth

They're still digging up explosives from WW1 in flanders till this day, I don't think it says much about poverty or wealth, just that world wars kinda messed things up lol.

yazalama

--copying/pasting from elsewhere-- This is one of the worst myths in all of Economic/monetary history. If you mean "a broad decrease in prices" to be deflation, then this is indeed something we should applaud and strive for. Economics is the study of the distribution of resources. Economics is energy. What is a price? A price is simply a ratio of inputs to outputs. It's a measure of efficiency. When prices are lower, it means we are able to enjoy a larger amount of resources for the same amount of resources expended, or, enjoy the same amount of resources for a lesser amount of resources expended. How can this ever be a bad thing? The traditional rebuttal is that when prices decline, spending decreases, business slows, unemployment rises, and we're worse off. Essentially the idea that it's spending that drives economic growth, and not production and savings. 1) This is largely untrue throughout history. The greatest period of price decreases was right around the industrial revolution, right up to about WW1, and also the period where the US emerged as one of the wealthiest economies in the world, which attracted millions of immigrants that helped turn the US into the economic superpower it is today. A big reason for this is that lower prices allows humans to be more innovative, as we move up from simply existing on a subsistence level, to focusing on higher level and purpose driven problems. For most of human history, there was one industry - agriculture. Today there are more industries for entertainment and leisure than we know what to do with.The very improvement in our technological revolution is due to efficiency, i.e. decreases in prices. 2) The idea that increased spending makes us wealthier doesn't follow logically. Spending is consumption of resources that required previous resources to produce. If spending really drove economic growth, we would be able to increase our spending while keeping production the same or less. As we all know this is impossible, as we're seeing our debt-based, inflation dependent monetary system reach it's tipping point. 3) People don't just stop buying what they need because their currency is steadily increasing in value. Nobody stops buying hamburgers and taking vacations because their savings accounts increased 5% a year. In fact not having your savings wiped out by inflation allows you to reliably save for making a larger purchase (a house, starting a business, kids college fund, etc.), which create more economic output, proving that savings and production are the true drivers of growth. 4) Human incentive. If prices were decreasing so much, that spending plummeted, businesses downsized, and people lost work, would that actually be a bad thing? It sounds counter intuitive, but if the first link in this chain of events (people spending less) were to occur, it's a reflection of the scarcity of wealth of these spenders. It means they have enough, and don't need to spend as much. If this holds true in aggregate for the population who make up those business owners who had to downsize, and the employees who got laid off, then they could do without them (in general) given their increases in purchasing power as well. If 99% of humans had a lifetimes worth of food, shelter, and energy for themselves and their families, would they really be hurt by losing their business or job? The end result is that deflation not only allows us to be prudent and live below our means, it truly means that society is slowly getting wealthier as a whole. Of course adding the layers of financial complexity and jargon on top of this very simple reality hides this fact, and so we continue to falsely believe that a slight 2% rate of inflation is "healthy" and desired.

Front-Tea-2061

Upvote for my scumbag. I Know a guy who pays for it. He says hookers are getting younger and there are more college girls and girls with degrees. He told me recently that some hookers operate out of college dorms. More men are buying as well. Rapid inflation and more sex workers is a sign a society in decline. Happened in Germany post WW I, at the end of Rome, and it's happening now.

Blunder_Punch

Fake. WW2 was in black and white

MasterSergeantOne

WW3

lobsteradvisor

They have a very reddit view of reality. A lot of people on this site live in a fantasy world. I've talked to people on here who think they are in povery, but you read their post history and they have 3 gaming consoles, all brand new electronics etc. When I was just POOR (not in poverty) as a kid my dad would buy 10 year old electronics and 20 year old cars. Most everyone who claims they have a low SOL or are poor on this site are upper class. I don't understand it but that's just how it is. I sometimes think it's some weird political agenda to get people convinced they have a shitty standard of living when they are actually living a life of luxury. Another guy I know thinks we live in a dystopic nightmare. He thought this even before covid. So it's worse now then the 1980s? 1950s? WW2? I think a lot of people are suffering from extreme ignorance. The problem is they are also people who think they are highly intelligent and informed so they never question their incorrect preconceived notions.

Jcpmax

America was no where NEAR the top dog in 1865. It became so after WW1

LightBoyRick69

WW3 will be beautiful

Affectionate-Law1436

Honestly the only way out is WW ☺️

Jewish_Overlord

Even if you believe in nothing you are free to speak as you will. Nothing stops you and nothing restricts you. Obviously that is the natural way. Ok but the worst bad actor in history has always been governments. How many wars were started due to governments manipulating facts or outright lying? So you want the government to censor anything it seems dangerous to it's objectives? So explain to me why free speech should have been restricted during WW1? A war started because a Serbian shot an Austrian so French and Germans were fighting to the death because the propaganda told them it was the right thing to do.

KingSurfer2001

WW3 is going to suck but we got this

edyy55

Yes, defo , they are not fo..s and know what they are doing. Every time when all middle class becomes to wealthy, they do some crisis, Covid , War, Inflation, Food supplies crisis then again Covid, then Crypto collapse then NFT will collapse. Till they will feel that they control situation, if not WW3. Easy , welcome to the fu..ng New World Order

M-3X

Everything is already priced in. Market is the authority. You thinking that something is not priced in? Yep priced in. Outcome of the Ukraine war if it ends within a year. Also. N plus 1 rates hikes, yep. Only absolute disaster black swan events are not. WW3 probably not. But then stock market would be your least of a problem.

couldntquite

If we live, at least we can tell our grand kids about how we got Monkey Pox during WW3.

OrangesAreOrangeHa

Serious Question: If worldwide food scarcity occurred, what would happen? Would it be gradual or sudden? Would countries immediately try to take over land they felt they could farm? Would the problem just create some other problem that led to WW3?

reheated_frenchfry

I think the situation in Ukrainian can and will drag on. WW1 was supposed to be a quick in and out, same with Vietnam, and the Middle East. I wouldn’t be surprised if more nations get involved either by choice or by force

4RedKing

Idk the biggest foe was defeated by tractors. So maybe we will skip the WW part.

4RedKing

Strangely what we are seeing now is almost an exact scenario of the prior Spanish Flu. Just sped up faster. Spanish flu > Quick Market Crash > Markets Skyrocket > Great Depression > WW2

4RedKing

Also what we are seeing now is almost an exact scenario of the prior Spanish Flu. Just sped up faster. Spanish flu > Markets Spiked > Great Depression > WW2

Samsuncledave

My understanding of world history is that Asians didn’t exist until WW2

fumbled_testtubebaby

Nah. You got raped less than a Ukrainian prisoner in Putin's pizza pedo dungeon. Clearly was a planned contingency of the post-WW2 armistice and peace treaties, and not in any way abnormal from expectations of the Hague. Sorry, but your gaping asshole and bleeding calls are well within the rules of JPOW's declaration of war on bulls.

EducatingMorons

Well ain't it convenient that we are about to enter WW 3?

Capitalistpig2112

Motherfuckers wanting to start WW3 just to get those Thanksgiving pardons in early.

someonesaymoney

If you're picking that macro event, I'd argue it'd be a non-issue for the markets in the short term, *unless* Putin goes apeshit and reacts immediately. If he reacts at all. So far he's been called out on his bullshit threats about more NATO members. I'm no global political strategist, but I think if he even touches a NATO member, it's WW3, and you'd have to hope that even if Putin is that insane, the people underneath him aren't.

hardcore_softie

High inflation, looming recession, WW3. Why didn't I think of investing in tobacco? Of course that's the play right now.

Top_Gun8

I agree with most of what you say but 60 years ago is conveniently right after WW2. Very different from today. One was to repay the government for fighting nazis the other, coming off a 13 year boom.

SuXs

Idgaf I just buy Raytheon Calls and hope there is WW3 and all you fuckers die.

SuXs

Idgaf I just buy Raytheon Calls and hope there is WW3 and all you fuckers die. So far it's a good strategy.

quantumloop001

I don’t see this as a continuation of the 2008 crash. Dodd-Frank has helped to shore up the banking system. This is more like a post war hangover, think about the post WW2 recession in 48. The entire nation had to accommodate the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives, massive government spending. As the economy moves from the level of stimulus sent to the middle class, to something more normal, in addition to an energy price shock, we are looking at at short correction. Barring more war, as another comment indicated. More war would actually help the economy through greater gov spending. unless we moved to a total war industrial policy.

Nagu360

Evergrande is delayed, not prevented. When the Chinese real estate market collapses, it'll bring down the Chinese mortgages held on foreign properties. And there's a lot of them. A lot. When those flood the market and pop real estate bubbles, the whole thing comes tumbling down And the best part? Governments no longer have the money to bail out the banks. They spent it all on Covid. Sure, they can turn on the money printer, but the amount needed will Venezuela the USD. And then all hell breaks loose once US bonds start to break. The only solution will be WW3. There are lots of fingers in the dykes, but it absolutely is gonna burst.

Myhotrabbi

You’re better off using your money to make your home sustainable if you really think WW3 is going to happen. Buy some apple trees and chickens

CommunicationOld9321

What USA companies sell weapons to Europe they are all preparing for WW3 might as well profit

Whoopiskin

Why CCJ pumping, we getting ready for WW3?

Middle-Apartment6289

Tell me why I should buy puts? Interest rates again? WW4? Dildo shortage? What now?

woahdailo

Fun fact: only like 25% of soldiers aimed their guns to kill in WW2.

Potential-Guide-9562

Yeah, they probably will not turn a profit for a year, but that is by choice. They should meet or beat earnings projections as usual though. This is a long hold for sure. They have assets and a huge footprint with a smart team. Not profitable, but will not go under either and the SP should trend upwards from here, unless WW3 comes and then you can worry about everything.

gravcycrunnow

I'm a Millennial. I just get sick of whiny ass Millennials blaming old people for their problems. There are real injustices and inequalities in this world, sure. But generational blame is 1) faulty logic because all of the Millennials would have been the Boomers had we been born then. The human genome hasn't changed, so Boomers are Boomers because of their environment, and that would have been our environment. 2) a cop out because there is still abundant opportunity to be had. There's never been a better or easier time to start a business than right now. There's never been more free education available at your fingertips. The WW2 generation had to go fight fascism and interrupt the prime of their lives at great risk. The Boomers had to fight in Vietnam, and 58,000 of them died. They had injustices, too....they just looked different. I just get tired of the complaining.

SolarQuestions123

Probably November? Gas always goes up seasonally in the summer. Russian war needs to end. Poors need to be priced out of the supply chain. That last point should be hitting at this level. Summer won’t end until September. War is a crapshoot. Could end today or spillover and become WW3 tomorrow, but it’ll probably end by July.

TesticularVibrations

Went down for no reason. Biggest war in Europe since WW2. Global pandemic still raging Highest inflation in decades Steeply rising interest rates whilst consumers and governments are at their highest debt levels in history Supply chain crisis Lowest consumer sentiment in decades Food shortages in developing nations that are spreading towards developed nations Most highly overvalued stock market in history Shall I continue?

TheCatnamedMittens

I am not interested in Ukraine-Russia, I don't understand what people are bringing that up for. I'm talking about about two dozen, fundamentally unpenalized war crimes committed over a period of about 150 years. Miss me with that whataboutism shit too when Russia got away with killing almost 2 million civies in former German territory after WW2. Again. I don't give a fuck about Russia, I'm talking about this fake freedom and justice loving country.

ExoPlanetary_23

Same reason Germany did in WW2?.. To get acceptance back into world economies... Just my thought, I'm on WSB so I'm slightly mental, and have a schedule to work behind my Wendy's dumpster. If you don't agree, well. Who knows. BJ,s for Frosties.

Tanyushe

naw we were held back by traitorous hippies we took on two top world military powers in WW2, nazi germany and imperial japan, and beat both of them into submission, so much that germany does whatever we tell them to do and japan is just a satellite state where we park some of our military equipment

Tanyushe

Every year we spend half of Russia's GDP on our military, and Putin thinks the best option to get his way is to... threaten us with war He must have missed the part where America only came out stronger after each world war. We will probably rule the world after WW3

WR810

Battle for 400 is less WW3 and more a brushfire conflict.

AMDG__

Morale as well… After WW1 Russia invaded Poland to bring communism into Europe, and ended up losing.

TyroneThePug

WW3 is escalating with Sweden and Finland joining NATO. Chinese banks are about to default due to a market crash. Inflation is not lowering. I don't see how we are going to go up. But it's your investments.

MordorBlues

WW3 and global food insecurity? Calls.

SnakeBDD

Year like nothing bad happened in Germany after WW1. /s

Luluhakashu

Can I buy a call on WW3?

eddie7000

How's this for an uncomfortable idea. The last major war America was involved in, that they didn't start, was WW1. Communism doesn't spread its evil wings through warfare, but through brainwashing the poor to eat the rich of their own nation from the inside out. Japan and Germany's imperialism's entire focus was on securing vital defense resources that America could have easily supplied on the free market. Capitalism on the other hand is all about international conflict, through the withholding of resources while provoking an attack to justify a conquering response, because war is very good for business. If a nation won't be provoked, a false flag will do the trick just as well. That way America always draws last but gets the kill shot. The point of this rant? I'm not worried about the future of America's economy. It will still be the big dog once this is all over. Green and Robot tec after the crash, all the way.

EM73725

Worked for Germany after WW1.

MinimumCat123

Gotta slim down the poors for the WW3 draft

imunfair

Yeah I've been surprised at how much the European countries are getting involved for a country that isn't in their defense treaty. The US usually does this interventionist stuff but it's more rare for the EU. Seems like some of the smaller baltic states don't really trust NATO to defend them, they're freaking out acting like they're next if Russia takes over Ukraine. And Poland seems absolutely rabid for blood, which I guess is because of some WW2 history between the countries, I wasn't aware of that feud.

GeezWhizGuys

Great, let's have WW3. Only the peons will die, and the globalists will continue to live the high-life.

Otherwise_Variety723

How do you know it’s not going to crash 90%? Even if it’s very unlikely, there is currently a war in Europe and new nations joining nato. If we see WW3, and nuclear bombs dropped he would most likely be correct. I’d simply say now is the time to use the money you don’t need and advice not to sell. If we see WW3 we don’t need that money anyways so it’s a win win.

jasonredit

1929: Great Depression 1945: End of WW2 Recession 1979: Energy Crisis 1990: Oil Price Shock 2000: Dot-com Bubble 2008: Great Financial Crisis 2010: Flash Crash 2020: Pandemic Crash What will the stock market crash of 2022 be called?

Chgralac73

the Chinese paper tiger kicked you out of Korea and Vietnam, when they sent in their troops and turned the tide. in end its all about the ground troops. Russia won WW2 because they sent 19 million men to their death while US lost 400k soldiers

no10envelope

I like it, WW3 breaks out you can slaughter them for food and leather.

acanafrog

From what I have read of op's post I am confused how you figure the dad has a point, sounds like he is new to investing and read a single article on a down day and now thinks the market will go down 90%. That sounds unlikely that he is making a well thought out decision. Now that being said we don't know his full financial picture and can't properly recommend without knowing more. It is not unreasonable to be sceptical of an article claiming they know the market will drop 90% Likely the father is inexperienced and was riding the wave feeling good about the investment and as soon as he started losing money couldn't stomach a potential loss. It seems a lot of people want to say sell everything or keep everything and this kind of thinking is always interesting to me, as there are numerous options available to the father not just 2. If we take op's post as genuine then perhaps a middle ground could be looked at. It seems like the father did not have a good sense of his risk tolerance, but making a second bad decision won't really help him either. More information and questions would need to be asked to figure out a proper plan, but since that is not present a suggestion you could always look at is a middle of the line approach. Find an amount to take out or leave in cash to give room and safety for the dad, and keep some in. He can "time" the market with that money later if he wishes and still keeps some in to not miss out on important recovery days. Going forward he really should find a better mix then all or nothing. This doesn't have to be black and white thinking, most times the middle ground is a solid option. This lowers his risk but doesn't have him selling at a low point and missing his entry point in. Also, there has always been risk, I'm sure investors in WW1 ww2 would feel things had major uncertainty. That being said pull out the old chat and see how many times the market didn't actually rebound back as a whole. Every investors would have had moments of uncertainty. Unfortunately people also seem to think that the market always returned 7% every year and doesn't realize it actually fluctuates.

_WhatchaDoin_

You can’t, but how much lower is it reasonable? Most major drops are around 30-35%. We are halfway there. You can’t completely time the market, but you can start moving your bonds to stock when the drop is around 20% or so. Then do more as it drops further. By the time the drop is 35-50% you should be all in with equity. Given the modern economic policies, the worst is behind you, and you have more chance to rebound quickly than dropping much further. Sure if we have WW3, or aliens are invading, all bets are off.

lordshola

Finland poking the 🌈🐻 (Putin). Thanks a lot Finland. WW3 incoming.

epsilon_delta39

A 90% drop from here would mean his portfolio would be the last thing to worry about. You would need something catastrophic like WW3 or an extinction level event to have such a dramatic drop.

Crobiusk

A 90% drop from here is literally nuclear WW3 scenario. More likely we retest the covid crash lows before the end of 2023 and bounce off them with a face ripping rally.

XxxApeMCxxX

I've actually been to Poland and Romania but not Ukraine. This not his first rodeo. All the places he shelled and established puppet govts. When WW3 starts soon and the bodies really start piling up we'll all be like Hitler who.

Significant-Farm371

demand never wanes for coke products tho. unless its WW3. because it doesnt cost much in a monthly budget

Sethoman

Argentina has an average of 60% annual inflation; yeah SIXTY not sixteen; and has been enduring that for at least 40 years; they just call it inflation. Mexico used to have those during the 70's and 80's but managed to come around and control the fuck out of it so we now "only" have to deal with 3 to 5% annually for the past 24 years. So when argentinians and mexicans watch gringos crying for a 9% annual inflation we can only laugh because BITCH you are NOT suffering like we are used to suffer. Venezuela has inflation that has already surpassed worst day Zimbabwe and are even worse that pre-WW2 germany. Venezuela has de facto dollarized their own aconomy and live off wired money from expats just like Cubans do. Argentinians can't even do that because their own government limits just how many dollars they can actually exchange to their local currency, at whatever price their government says the dollar is valued (just a bit over half its REAL value in the market) and then tax the fuck off 50% whatever the limit is, so they really only get 1/4th of the dollar value. Wich in their local currency will be worth 60% less a year from now. So just to clarify, the US has had almost 1% inflation monthly for the past 8 to 10 months; Argentina has had 5% MINIMUM per month, for the past 10 months now.

4RedKing

This current decline is based on inflation and interest rates going up. So I doubt it will last 10 years. But then again last big pandemic (Spanish Flu) caused a sharp decline and then a boom in the markets followed by the Great Depression and then we had WW2.

neomatic1

WW3 is already here

FinChange

Depends on what is driving inflation... If supply chain worries than interest rate increase won't do shit. Too much money sloshing around? Make this millennial scum pay back their student loans... There's a reason we jacked your tuition dickshit. Worried about wheat and energy prices? Nothing like a war in Europe to solve that, so let Russia bomb Finland before they join NATO, leads to WW3 and population drips by 200mm then we can deflate the fuck out of things.

CPA-hole

Would you rather be a hobo with a 5% chance of winning the lottery, or be Hitler two years before the end of WW2?

computery_stuff

100% true UK only recently bothered paying off war bonds and Lend-Lease debt from WW1 & WW2

International-AID

So WW3 is inevitable now.

SweatyLiterary

Going over my middle kids test he failed "This ruler who shares a name with a famous band was assassinated and it began WW1" He put Fleetwood Mack

OutlandishnessLong14

Calls on WW3!

RedTruck1989

Maybe he considers Friday the 13th like April Fools Day... Time to get ones affairs in order.... WW 3 is on deck.

DimesOnHisEyes

Yea no not even close. That's called modern bias. While in reality there has been some resurgence in DIY type skills most people in pre WW2 would have known those YouTube skills intuitively. I mean they actually taught them in schools. Now if you would have said the 1960s or '70s or 80's then yea sure but 1929 most people were not urban dwellers and in urban settings growing food and even small livestock was rather common in all but the most densely packed areas.

Electronic_Candy9783

GG folks see you all in WW3... There is just no other way this is going to play out

_DeanRiding

It's not baseless, the UK has been pretty much in decline (relatively speaking) since WW2 as it's struggling to deal with a post-industrial world. Brexit is only accelerating that decline. England has decided that they're better off outside of the world's largest trade bloc, and it's already yielded a reduction of exports around the world as they fail to reach any significant comprehensive trade agreements with countries they didn't already have them with anyway. Market-wise, the UK struggles to keep up with the US on the tech space, and the finance/banking space, which is supposed to be our main strength, is now being eaten away at by hubs like Frankfurt. With the recent announcements regarding wanting to be a crypto hub, maybe this will change things, however the EU also seem pretty keen on crypto as well, so it's questionable how much of a wave they can make. Particularly when the tech space is weak in the UK (and EU) as it is.