WW

GenderJuicy

Obviously it's not on the same scale as Amazon or Uber, and I wouldn't even compare the importance. "Nothing comparable in human history" isn't right, there's the railroad, WW2, etc. It's big, yes, it's just not unprecedented. Microsoft and Google are funding most of this out of operating cash flow from businesses that are already very profitable. If demand disappointed they could just cut, and their earnings would look better immediately. They can keep it rolling as long as they choose to, the question is whether they'll want to. If you're talking about Anthropic and OpenAI, then yes, they're burning a shitload and don't have other ways of making money. I don't think Microsoft or Google actually want those companies to disappear necessarily, because they're providing them very valuable data, even if indirectly. Probably a good part of why Microsoft has so much money in OpenAI for instance. What do you think these companies will end up doing? I think they'll keep pricing each other out and forcing each other to spend enormous amounts training the next best model to keep demand up, until one of them can't keep pace. Companies are building infrastructure and workflows around these services, and they'll pay enterprise rates for them, the same way firms happily pay Autodesk thousands per seat per year when Blender is free. I'm not saying anyone's locked into a single vendor, but they'll keep paying for one, I don't think there's a future where everyone's stopped developing AI models and offering a service like they are especially to enterprise. It probably isn't going to be Anthropic or OpenAI hitting zero. Could be next quarter, could be five years, I really don't think there's some imminent thing happening in the next year. Google can subsidize off search cash flow essentially forever and they're probably okay being behind the people who are spending WAY more climbing to the top as they, slowly, probably train off everything they're providing the same way something like Alibaba is.

IncidentSouthern2119

Kevin Warsh will most likely follow the same path the US used post WW2 to manage the debt 1945-1975 or so. Inflate out of it. Savers in cash like assets get stuck with the bill. Own Assets. Diversify.

Coffee_Ops

Yeah. And there is talk of getting rid of the debt ceiling, so unlike post WW2 where that number went down, we are going up and Congress wants it to go up with fewer roadblocks.

Coffee_Ops

We topped out at 118% debt-to-gdp during WW2. As recently as 10 years ago discussions on this were treating that number as a Bad Place, but "at least we're not there yet". Where are we now, have you looked?

Me-Regarded

Right!? I can't handle slow and boring anymore. I need cusp of WW3 and global financial collapse to feel anything

Budget-Ocelots

Except for WW2. Russians committing war crimes across Europe. And then the US with the atom bombs. We haven’t gotten another WW because the potential war crimes will be too immense on humanity with modern weapons.

Sensitive_Pudding599

Put leaps? What was your logic, WW3?

african_cheetah

Air power is powerful. Being able to click anywhere in a map and have it blown to pieces is a powerful capability.  The problem is US air power is pretty diminished compared to the cheap drones.  Russia and Iran can produce a million drones per year under sanctions.  They can drive their economies to the ground to win a war of attrition.  US is stuck in the past with boomers making boomer decisions thinking WW2 strategy will help them win. 

Academic_Power_7473

If it were WW III then Iran would be a radioactive dust cloud by now

Sweaty-Dust6405

In the old days, the children of presidents would actually participate (ex.: Teddy Roosevelt's son died in WW1)...nowadays, forget about it, especially Trump's family.

FortyYearOldVirgin

I’m old enough to remember that dent clock being installed in NY and we had these same conversations. It’s been literally decades (1989). And we’ve been having the same damn argument to this day. Just like the doomsday clock when one country launches a nuke into the air. Or talks of Xomg it’s WW3! when there’s conflict. If I’ve learned nothing else in my old age is that fear sells. And I’m not falling for it.

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

Glad we agree on that.  It speaks to the complexity of "imminent threat" concept. They are clearly a militarized nation, they are clearly trying to inflect (upwards) their military dominance over the region, and they clearly have no issue with killing 10x more civilians, routinely, than died in the largest US bombing campaign since Vietnam, perhaps since WW2 idk.  I understand your pov, but feel there are more civilians and issues at risk from the IRGC's continued existence than from the US bombing IRGC facilities.  Hopefully that makes sense. That said, to be totally honest with you, minimizing Iranian civilian deaths is not my #1 concern. Maximizing quality of life for US citizens and US allies' citizens is. It's just the world we live in today, and as I said previously, there would be less risk today if the US and its allies had been much more aggressive stomping upstart military rivals earlier in the past. Best wishes to you and your family. 

goodbodha

The toll is economically devastating for Europe. Europe might live with it for a bit, but some enterprising politician may decide this needs to be revisited with a war on a few years. The demands the US leave is quasi unreasonable. The Gulf states would be left wide open potentially. Note the Saudis now have a 3 way defense agreement with Pakistan and Turkey. That is directly to mitigate that risk. What it looks like is Iran wants us out and then they intend to topple Iraq and move beyond that into the Gulf states. Go look at the other tolls on cargo ships. The fees are dramatically lower and a large amount of those fees are to support tugs, pilots, and other expenses to make things go smoothly. This fee is far higher like hundreds of times higher and for nothing other than pay or else... As for accountability they could make several far more reasonable demands that would be lasting. They could demand Trump and Netanyahu resign to get a deal. They could demand the US has to join the ICC. They could demand the blockade stop. They could demand the US lose their seat on the UN security council. End of the day it will be what it will be, but this isn't resolved until everyone can live with the outcome. That was the WW1 mistake. Reparations were so stupidly high Germany couldn't endure them and turned to extreme political leaders. Did you know when Hitler took power the second place party was communist? That is what happens when people are told to pay for decisions others made and those payments make their lives unbearable.

_Reporting

Depends entirely on how successful it is. If it goes well. It will be seen as the best strategic military victory since WW2. If it goes bad it will be seen as the biggest self own since I’m not even sure

music_is_gud

WW4 will be fought with sticks and stones

Hwangoutpltr

100yrs from now, after WW4, the only music relic found will be an MF DOOM mixtape

Own-Recipe5908

I mean, bond market collapses happened all the time post-WW2. I think current fed has basically given up. They'll raise a little but it won't be as fast as '22 I'd guess. Either way, the way to play that is TLT and TMF short or longs.

Key-Organization3158

People earn way way more today than they did after WW2. Over the last 50 years, the real median personal income has risen 52.1% So the individual worker is getting a lot more in their paycheck.

westisbestmicah

This is unironically one of the major causes of WW2. Germany’s inflation deleted the debts of wealthy Junker landlords while their physical assets maintained value. So they encouraged to government to inflate more causing a positive feedback loop of hyperinflation.

LittleTrack858

That is well above long term average.  Taxation has run about 17% of gdp plus or minus 1 since WW2.  Spending has gotten out of control especially since 2020.

Onnimation

**Saudi Arabia braces for attacks on ports and airports by Iraqi militias working with Iran-backed Houthis** GG, I'm no doomer but damn this feels similar to WW1-WW2 years before it happened if you know your history

DisgrunltedDan

WW3 -.003 %  Deal made - +2% Nuke - 00000001% I’m sorry bout that ! Deal? +8%

imustbegthequestion

It's the most unnecessary company ever created. Just let BB NOKIA HTC MOTO GOOGL ZUNE AND IPOD be controlled by $DIS. WW2 IS OVER. WE GET IT. WE'LL BE READY FOR WW7.

IronyElSupremo

U.S. and ex-U.S. “world” (aka “developed” countries) used to trade leadership post WW2 recovery until the late ‘00s. “Emerging mkt” stocks became popular in the ‘00s led by China too. Since then it was mostly US stocks until mid 2024, when non-US started to take off. In 2022 Fidelity JP Morgan etc.. released research that for several decades the optimum mix was U.S. 70%, non U.S. 30% Bogle and others said non-U.S. wasn’t really needed but if desired, they recommended 20% max. Your call, though 80/20 is the mix for the top 100 global stocks (see iShares IOO etf). The last few months, stodgy European bank stocks beat the tech-rich S&P 500; the only excitement about European banks is when they show you the flower pot the banks founders used for a loo when Napoleon’s armies were invading outside. Just goes to show you can’t really predict what’s “hot” next. Why the U.S.? One big reason: The U.S. leads in tech for now and that tends to give explosive earnings when tech sizzles .. though the sector has always had a warning of competition and government regulation even back in the mutual sector fund days ‘80s-‘90s (spelled out in a paper prospectus). Guess what’s happening now? Also the U.S. tends to be more equity friendly with more of its GDP made up of stock. Still the last couple years, non-U.S. has rallied and is probably here to stay.

UnitedCup1814

I wonder if it's actually true the the is military can't afford to throw any more resources at that war without beconig vulnerable. I think the whole largest stack since WW2 was just bullshit to make it look 🥭 was on full controll of the situation and had to be held back

wanmoar

Hi OP, rebalancing to sleep better is always good. Sure, you might give up a few points in gains. Investing is about risk and reward. Earning a million but the process being having to have an open heart surgery in a WW1 trench isn't a good bet. You're okay far as I can tell

wanmoar

Hi OP, rebalancing to sleep better is always good. Sure, you might give up a few points in gains. Investing is about risk and reward. Earning a million but the process being having to have an open heart surgery in a WW1 trench isn't a good bet. You're okay far as I can tell

notmarduke

Biggest attack since WW2..  That would mean nukes right???

NoMore_stu

Man, WW3 really could kick off this year

darthjarhead

I guess WW3 just kicked off

justathought178

I think so, I'm guessing Nvidia will hit $300 around Dec earnings unless WW3 breaks out

M1sfit_Jammer

If starlink was the only ISP available to me then I guess I’m going dark… I’d rather go dark than give that goose-stepping, sieg-heiling grandpa any of my money. My grandpa shot Nazis in WW2… he’d dig himself out of his own grave to beat my ass if he heard I was giving them money.

Rock_or_Rol

You guys have worse PTSD than my late WW2 vet grandpa jumping out of his wheel chair for cover when my brother was running around with a cap gun

MasterDave

I intend to treat this stock like I did Tesla at the same time. Buy once it craters, hold on through several Elon Convinces People it’s not a Scam, does a split a few times and then cash out at whatever ungodly number it’s at in 2032/33. Should be able to make a mil at least. Which may not help if we’re a couple years into WW3 and Tesla hasn’t shifted to making electric drones to bomb Greenland with or whatever Trump needs to do on his 4th term.

Federal-Compote-5015

It’s been 6 months of crying wolf and “not seen since WW2” completely BS everytime. The stock market eats it up because there are no morals when trading

DVHismydad

In my opinion, people like me are betting that the space industry will grow ludicrously in the next 20-50 years. It is my opinion that the current revenue numbers matter very little in this sector, and SPCX has a gigantic premium because many other investors see it the same way. I do think the price will come down a lot when more of the shares become available for trading. SpaceX has an obvious and massive technical advantage over its competitors (in rocketry), and assuming we don’t actually end up in Great Depression 2.0 or WW3 in the next 20 years, I could see it becoming BY FAR the largest company in the world. We are (humanity is) going to space, as long as we don’t kill each other first. It’s the final frontier. And I think investors would do well to remember how exorbitantly rich England, France, Spain, and the Netherlands became from exploring the last frontier.

Professional-Tap2052

If you didn't realize. There was never going to be a WW2 attack. He lied. The military today admitted that they've almost run out of missiles.

Professional-Tap2052

So the president said last week he is planning the biggest attack since WW2. And today we find out we almost run out of missiles. I think he lied on purpose

fartpooppee420

Our President is a pussy and going to dip out and give Iran and Oman full control of the Strait. Bessent said he was about to unleash "The biggest attack since WW2" on Iran the other day which made them come crawling to the negotiating table. Does anyone believe this bullshit anymore? Holy shit we're in an insane-o world.

VTI4LYFE69

RUBIO: THERE'S BEEN PROGRESS MADE IN TALKS IRAN TO REOPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ WE SURVIVED WW3 holy fook

DirectionMurky5526

Transformers G1 is closer to WW2 than it is today

ThanksDependent1001

I think the problem with having the strongest military in the world is the fact you can’t deploy all your heaviest assets. Like 🥭may be wild but he ain’t about to start WW3 or drop nukes and anything that would truly rock the world. We can only ever tit for tat folks just like Russia does to Ukraine.

Professional-Tap2052

But.. But.. He said he planned the attack to be biggest since WW2. Should have known he was going to TACO last minute.

FalseDiamond7930

Yea Tolkien was a pacifist and a anti-war activist. That's why he fought in WW1 and Aragorn is a warrior king that use his sword to protect others.

trumpdiego

##One gigangtic WW2 strike to stop the spread.

trumpdiego

one WW2 strike to stop the spread

Solid-Ad9947

This, plus the WW2 remark, makes me think this administration is seriously considering a nuclear attack.

need20goodmen

Bears are 90% of traffic on Truth Social, refreshing the page every minute waiting for missiles and WW3

ProfessionalDate1130

Bears literally prefer WW3 to gains, shame

TechTuna1200

We are in the early innings of AI. Unless WW3 happens, there is no future where AI isn't embedded in everything. I think it needs to trade sideways for 4-6 months. It is difficult to know who the winners are gonna be. But with semis, cloud, and distribution stocks, you are agnostic to which model and applications are gonna be the winners. Everybody knows the semis, Nvdia, MU, AMD, Intel, Samsung, etc. The cloud/neoclouds are Amazon, Microsoft, Google, NBIS, Meta, Iren, Tencent, Baba etc. Distrubition are the hyperscalers Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Baba, Tencent, Google, etc.

SangerGRBY

“Nothing gets through to Iran, unless we want it to, and nothing will get through, unless a Deal, or Total Surrender, is accomplished. Whether Iran wants to admit it or not, we are, in fact, talking of a solution to a problem that they have caused, for decades. It is very simple, IRAN WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!” he concluded. Peace deal is off the table. Tehran will not accept not having Nuclear weapons. We might actually be at the start of WW3.

SangerGRBY

So if Iran backs out of this peace deal its WW3?

2EXTRA4YOU

It would be perma WW3 if the US actually cared about defending its ineffable universalist values. Look up Jiang. All these ideals and rules are just excuses made to domesticated civilians for the government to be predatory.

No_Stand5622

WW3 over, time to make babies

Sufficient_Habit5091

We're literally going to bootstrap fake threats to start WW3 and ending Iran civilization to peace deals all the way to new ATHs, repeatedly.

Specific-Path3179

SPCX is bullish long-term, they beat Anthropic and OpenAI to market with offloading their shares and they will be the only satellite company on earth after WW3.

Antonio_928s4

At levels not seen since WW2? Have this guy forgot about D-Day on June 6th, 1944?

Icy-Dimension2914

Debt-to-GDP ratio is what matters. The only time we were close to current levels was during WW2.

stepbro206

After everything with semiconductors this past week I think anything in that sector is a safe bet. Other than that I’m bullish on WW3 so global security stocks like LMT

1-800-YOLO

In a financial repression, one must repress emotions/reality/logic because held cash is a guaranteed loss  Inflate the debt away Warsh, WW2 style 

OkAtmosphere7131

Poor you another victim! Some generations have it harder than others. Remember how young people had it around WW2 and Vietnam. They never got to live their lives. They protected your right to complain! Hang in there, odds are it will get better.

bemeandnotyou

"it would have been the biggest attack since WW2" this fat fuk delusions are getting deeper

1-800-YOLO

Financial repression  Warsh gunna inflate the debt away, WW2 era playback 

VolcanicCupid69

We have not won a war since WW2 and the Cold War, but those were important ones. These don’t really matter. Taiwan will be the next important one…… guessing we don’t go 3-0 in the big ones. Empires eventually crumble. Ask the Brits, romans, ottomans, and Egyptians how they are doing these days. We will be in that boat eventually

DirtyOrange546

Pretty sure they meant the amount of Americans that died during WW1.

owenmills04

Dummy that was the total US casualties in WW1

OkAlternative7705

lol idk why the hate, you are right no one gives a shit about wars WW3 and shit like that. 

hnglmkrnglbrry

We killed a school filled with little girls. We entered WW1 largely in part because a British ship that had American passengers was sunk. 116k Americans killed. We entered WW2 because a military base was bombed. 418k Americans killed. What would we do if a school filled with little girls in Iowa was bombed by China? How committed would we be to seeing them destroyed? Is there a settlement we'd be willing to negotiate in exchange for their lives that didn't involve the public execution of everyone involved? We gave Iran the most iron-clad and universally-approved casus belli imaginable. Their people will endure endless heartache, economic stress, and violence if it means spilling one drop of American blood. Meanwhile in the US there is absolutely zero motivation to continue this conflict. The only reason it hasn't ended is because the GOP has so aggressively gerrymandered their districts that they have virtually zero political pressure to end it. If they see their majority increase despite being literally the least effective and openly hostile political party in the industrialized world then this will drag on for years.

Anning312

Use some logic, the plaza accord has lasting impact even until today, stuff like that don't just take effect the day it's implemented. US did help Japan greatly, but Japan would have likely gotten itself out of the hole without the US. I benefit greatly from this relationship as an American living in Japan. But that's because I make USD and spend JPY. Go ask any Japanese if their lives have been better or worse the past 30 years or so. The impact of Japan being the US' bitch is not likely a net positive, for many reason. The US didn't help Japan post WW2

TheNplus1

Actually, I’m ready for fighting unseen since WW2, but the enemy asked me to back down so we agreed to agree on the agreement of a deal.

mynameistory

But Trump said this is the most erect, the most turgid, that our fighting forces have ever been. We're full to the brim with American Terror sauce, the likes of which haven't been seen since WW2.

Rock_or_Rol

The amount of people complaining about avoiding WW3 is wild lol

comrade_777_alt

WW3 starts tonight?

Sufficient_Habit5091

Cute that you think WW3 would lead to deflation instead of massive printing and inflation.

youngmacho

WW3 could ultimately start from what is about to happen this weekend gg bols

Temporary-Air-3178

Was it a war crime to bomb German infrastructure in WW2?

RepresentativeSea583

Stock market crash in August and September anyways. Why not have WW3 and get done with it over these 2 months.

Successful_Car1670

You mean like June-July? No we entering the bearish months in the middle of energy crisis, WW3 and now an international Reserve crisis with banks everywhere failing to do their jobs while governments collude to manipulate currencies

Full_Pear449

I wasn't born before WW1 or the Great Depression but I know what happened.

Rock_or_Rol

Iran isn’t going to talk to us until we leave. Once we do, we can work out a deal. Kayfabe is, we blow something inconsequential up with their Iran’s prior knowledge, leave and then work out a deal to not appear weak and keep the magoids happy for the midterms I don’t think all these central banks would keep rates steady unless they were absolutely assured by 🥭 that we were going to leave soon as well. I could be wrong and we get WW3 and a black Monday though. Who knows?

Fresh-Judge-4595

When does WW3 start, tonight?

MokelMoo

I mean the WW1 and WW2 were very much our wars. Zimmerman telegram and Pearl harbor are pretty normal precursors to war.

No_Shine_6124

Soooooo, calls after WW3?

flyingdutchmnn

Imagine europe does this to the US. Ursula making speeches in New York to rally democrats. It'd be WW3, Trump would shit his diaper and Rubio would lose his mind.

Sybertron

That was one of the thing preceeding the great depression, massive tax cuts to help build from WW1 fallout, and instead they all rushed into the stock market hyperinflating the bubble.

IamyourfantasyX

So the Saudis going to invade Yemen and deal with the rats. Interesting times that I can trade on the shitter and post to you regards during WW3. In HD. Best time to be alive is now folks.

Ok-Age-263

Anyone else think WW3 is close?

Report_Last

By law the government can't default. In WW2 interest rates were capped at a very low rate to afford to finance the war, inflation spiraled. The difference was back then, the government did it on purpose. Now we're just waiting for it to kick in.

htcruz

Japan won't do anything. They're a vassel state of USA since WW2 and will sink the economy before hurting USA. Just like the 1980's plaza accords.

Rupperrt

Who’s gonna participate in a Middle East war to warrants naming it WW3? Russia? Lol. China? For what? They’ve already got decent relations to most factions, both the Sunni and Shia countries.

Zanna-K

I said WW3 in the middle east. Also your statement is contradictory. The fact that China and Taiwan know that nobody will start WW3 for Taiwan makes an aggressive offensive action more likely, not less.

Rock_or_Rol

I’d listen to them senses Where are we with Iran? We’re losing the current dynamic. It’s not sustainable. Our oil reserves are critically low. Our interceptors are critically low We either ground invade, unfreeze assets/walk away and recognize Iran as a global power, or we nuke them and risk WW3 with sanctioned states. We could theoretically go as is for 2-3 more months, but not if Iran keeps the pressure up. They won’t go back to the MOU unless we give up something big.. not talk about it, but do it. 🥭 has his head filled with so much bullshit from the people around him I think we might actually invade.

Successful_Car1670

Would love to believe this but BOJ just balked at a rate hike after FOMC gobbledygook and BOE holding rates steady while propping up the gilts again. Looks like the whole world is headed off the cliff together while accelerating WW3 (which apparently is bullish). As much as I would love to believe trillions were sold off so Griffin could buy some guys stock, the fugazi continues

Rupperrt

No one is gonna start a WW3 for Taiwan. And China and Taiwan know that. Therefore it’ll be more likely a slow degradation of the status quo over the coming decades.

Zanna-K

You should be more worried about what happens if WW3 kicks off in the middle east and China decides that it's time to muscle in on Taiwan. You also should be more worried about $4000 plane tickets as jet fuel becomes harder to come by and insurance companies balk at flights into combat zones over the western Pacific.

ThinkingOfTheOldDays

Got fed the post WW2 consensus garbage that neutered them mentally. Next question.

Foremole_of_redwall

Bro this has Nic Cage in WW2 it’s worth it bro 

Pitiful_Bedroom_6619

Maybe declaring war was what started WW1

brostrummer

The assassination of Franz Ferdinand, that started WW1 was all due to his chauffeur, a man named LEOPOLD, taking the wrong route, driving right to where it was known the assassins would be camped out.

GneissFrog

These Taco account babies haven't even finished kindergarten and they are already experienced bagholders. Hardest working generation since WW1. Maybe the future of the US is bright after all.