WW International Inc
Warren Buffett's advice in case of WW-III: "Do not hold cash because of high inflation during the war. Own a farm, own an apartment house, own securities. Whether boom or bust — or World War III — people still need to eat, people still need a place to live."
In the most prosperous years for the American middle class (post-WW2) CEO pay was several tens of times higher than the average worker pay. Now it's several *hundred* times higher. Why didn't the lower ratio faze anyone back then? Because above a certain income level when all typical needs and luxury wants can be easily satisfied the incentive to do anything gets completely divorced from money. The incentive will be ego, competition, altruism, desire to push the envelope, impressing people, discovering new things, etc. And it's still going to be that, or some combination of these internal things depending on one's personality, regardless of what CEOs are getting paid. They may be venal but they are people like everyone else, and have the same motivations we all have and would still act on instead of sitting on our assess if money was of no concern in our everyday lives.
Debt is too high (higher than post WW2 as a % to GDP). Best way to reduce debt is inflation. Inflation means recession, initially. There is no alternative as debt is too high. It might be better in 10+ years once debt decreases.
>The internet was started decentralized. It was intended to remain that way, free. The internet, as ARPAnet, started as a means of connecting research and military facilities together in a way that could withstand a nuclear war wiping out large swaths of the country and a number of the facilities. It wasn't built about being "free". Decentralization was a design requirement built around making sure data could flow between the military and researchers in the event of WW3. It wasn't some granola munching idealism, it was about survival. >All of the data and built services are now extremely centralized, controlled. As an internet engineer, I find this statement to be ignorant of how the internet itself is actually constructed, and all of the entities involved. Long haul providers, APOPs, CNFs, syndication points, dark fiber vendors, NDCs, cloud providers, CDNs, cell towers, LECs... the list goes on and on. Each a business, each owning some part of the actual internet. All built with redundancy to eliminate points of failure. All decentralized. IMO if you want to see where the internet is actually going and how it is being architected, pick up a copy of "The Future X Network" by Bell Labs. An actual industry member that does scads of research on this exact topic.
not really. we turned up the industry to produce more than the world combined in under 2 years with fewer resources and way less capital during WW2. We currently have thousands if vacant factories and hungry rust belt communities eager to jump on such a move. It’d be an easier transition than you think. A few years of annoyance and stagnation and what not, but considering we can get most anything from somewhere else, it’d for the largest part be a management scramble and doubling of costs until we are back on line.
What you’re saying is true but people have been speculating about WW3 since the 1960’s. Recessions on the other hand have become so common in the past that people have started to normalize the occurrence. Part of that is due to how we dealt with those recessions in the past, but none of those previous tactics are relevant anymore, the next recession will likely be very ugly and possibly last a decade or more.
Biden resigning and a magical democrat that doesn’t currently exists takes over that big business likes. A republican president in 2024. No because they are some how smarter but because companies collectively make more money when they are in the office. War in Ukraine ending would help a little, problem is it’s not as big a factor for the US. Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine escalating would actually probably do it better (WW2 pulled us from the Great Depression) WW3 would cost a lot and boom the economy. A coop in China that puts democracy into their government and erases our debt with them. Most realistic though is a Republican president and congress in 2024 because they will be able to pass tax cuts so the rich will get even richer and the poor will get just a little bit better off. I don’t see Ukraine turning out good in any way other than the the people killing putin and then being to be let back into the world.
That's not really true either. Inflation came back down in 1942 and 1951 without recessions. There were recessions in 1945 and 1953 however, and the 1953 one is attributed to federal reserve overtightening after 1951, so maybe you can count that one. The stock market doubled from May 1942 (peak inflation) to February 1945 (recession start). The stock market rose through the entire recession. The GDP contraction was entirely caused by decreased public sector GDP after WW2 ended. The unemployment rate only rose to 5.2%. There have been decades with higher unemployment than that. The stock market rose 28% from Feb 1951 (peak inflation) to July 1953 (recession start) and another 24% during the recession. Unemployment rose to 6.1% which is also not very high for a recession.
Trading a Russian nuclear offensive in Ukraine. Russia has been pushed back hard, with Crimea now within reach of Ukrainian troops. In response Putin annexed Eastern Ukraine, giving him access to two assets: conscripts and nuclear weapons. Combined with Russia's specialty in winter warfare, he could be about to use both of them to full effect. And then there's China, which has gone into full overdrive on locking down and closing itself off, even at the risk of an uprising. Are they also preparing for a nuclear offensive? Even assuming it would result in WW3, that would cause total panic on the market, who are just coming off their pandemic high, so I would imagine a massive market collapse is guaranteed. Banks are running on zero deposit ratios so they have zero room left for mistakes. Bail in regulations have been introduced world wide, and just this year test run in China. Plays: \- short all indexes, especially Ukraine, maybe Taiwan. \- long military suppliers, especially anything concerning nuclear weapons. \- short banks. But go long when bail ins kick in, as banks will shed 90% of debt. \- short crypto and gold, as these will banned/confiscated under emergency laws.
Definitely not. Tons of headwinds. 10 years of inflation ahead to reduce debt (which is now even higher than post WW2 as % to GDP). Growth will likely come back with the reindustrialization of western countries e.g semiconductors which will require a lot of capital. As well as solving the energy issues in Europe which will take a few years.
Well I’d need a source on yours. US imperialism: - NATO intervation in Libya 15.000 - tarnils killed by US backed Sri Lankan gov 30.000 - US revolutionary war 36.700 (if Russia removes a monarch is bad, huh?) - Spanish-American war 100.000 - US made famine Bangladeshi 100.000 - Guatemala 300.000 - US Bombing Yugoslavia 20.000 - Iraq (US selling poison gas to saddam) 400.000 - Invasion of Philippines 650.000 - US imposed sanctions on Iraq 1.000.000 - Afghanistan 1.200.000 - US intervention in Congo 5.000.000 - US aggression in Latin America 6.000.000 -Vietnam war (including Cambodia and Laos) 10.000.000 I could keep going on on US. You tell me if you want more later British imperialism: - Irish famine: 1.500.000 - the bengal famine 10.000.000 - British occupation of India 30.000.000 - second boer war 35.000 - famine in held British India 30.000.000 Misc. capitalist nations: - Mussolini’s Ethiopia 700.000 - French Madagascar 80.000 -Dutch East Indies 25.000 - South African apartheid 3.500.000 - Nazi Holocaust 12.000.000 - WW1 16.500.000 - WW2 60.000.000 You get the idea. I didn’t even talked about Japan imperialism etc…
If you look at US stock market yearly returns there really hasn't been a lot of periods that have yearly back to back negative returns. Now everyone is expecting 2023 to be worse than 2022 myself included. In a 100 years span there have been 4 of such episodes. Great depression, tech boom bust, seventies shit with inflation, and start of WW2. Even 2008 being the magnitude it was didn't have back to back negative years. However yield curves, geopolitical shit, inflation is pointing to pain coming. WHAT WILL HAPPEN????
Modern Australian cooking is international fusion with heavy Mediterranean, Middle Eastern and Asian influences. It is has very little connection to traditional English food. BTW the 'terrible' English cooking reputation is based on the experience of American servicemen during WW2. They thought the strictly rationed *survival* food served in Britain was normal cooking.
>why does China suppress all discussion of what happened on that day? This is a topic that requires a lot of words. For a theoretical framework, read Antonio Gramsci on Cultural Hegemony. The Chinese constitution guarantees free speech. It does outlaw anti-revolutionary speech. What this means is that pro-capitalist speech, or speech aimed at destabilizing the socialist project are banned. This isn't fundamentally different from Germany banning pro-nazi speech. The truth is that the US has been trying to destabilize the PRC since before it even came to power. They created Radio Free Asia as a propaganda outlet to create nonsensical stories to destabilize China and simultaneously drum up support in the western world for US aggression. The US also created the VoCMF to produce propaganda against the communist world in general. The US used to drop propaganda in pamphlets from airplanes over Chinese cities. China needs to counter these threats. Disallowing repeating western propaganda is one way of doing that. Tiananmen was a tragedy, but it wasn't a broad massacre of thousands. A few hundred died, the first of which were Chinese soldiers, the bulk of which were from a violent labor protest taking place elsewhere in Beijing, some of them were students and troublemakers that had stolen weapons out of the PLA vans that they commandeered. By the way, all of that, except the bit about the labor protest is in the GoHP documentary produced by the US govt and the Ford Foundation, which is broadly considered to be an academic source on the matter in the west. It broadly contradicts much of the modern narrative and, when it was produced was heavily slanted against the Chinese in favor of a more horrendous narrative. >Why is it not seen as a victory for the Socialist revolution? Why would socialists celebrate the death of working people? You must *really* not understand the socialist position. >Why are the soldiers who died but revered as martyrs? They aren't to my knowledge. >prior "counter-revolutionary" purges? You color these purges in such a one-sided light. Wasn't the French revolution, which is ubiquitously seen as the death knell of feudalism and the ushering in of capitalism...why do you not see that as a purge? The people living like leeches on the backs of the common people that had the audacity to continue supporting the feudal system were seen as incompatible with the direction society needed to go. The purges of the Kulaks in the USSR were the result of rich landowners who essentially owned slaves as serfs (even though it was illegalized a generation earlier, it functionally continued even into the early USSR) were told that their lands were now held in common by their workers. They responded by burning their crops, refusing to plant more crops, leaving crops to rot in their fields and slaughtering nearly half of the total livestock in the whole of the USSR, all of which were major factors in the Soviet famine of the 30s. Purging them shouldn't be viewed by anyone any differently than the French revolution: an ugly, but ultimately necessary line. The lords in France caused the abject misery of millions. The kulaks caused or seriously contributed to the deaths of millions through Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and the whole of the USSR. Should they have been left to do as they pleased? >Why, if so many died defending the revolution and so few died opposing it, was the demonstration so effectively put down on that day? For one, the govt had done nothing for many weeks. At a certain point, once the order is given to the army to clear the square, they did. What is hard to imagine about that? Do nothing. Now go make them leave. It's like wondering why your car doesn't drive until after you turn it on. >Also, if the demonstrations were known to be pushed by the US, This is undeniable. They might not have started there, but they were certainly guided and funded by the US. >why did the US and China continue to engage in friendly relations in the time leading up to it? You know the US was still selling oil to the Nazis during WW2, right? FWIW, at the time, China was heavily criticizing the US and NATO for bombing Belgrade. China and the US had a mutually beneficial relationship at the time. >The article you linked doesn't even pass the "Think about it for five minutes" test. It does actually. Unless somehow you think it's more plausible that the Chinese govt executed 10,000 people in one day, with their families numbering 5-10 people for every one person killed, somehow that 50-100k people just forgot. Are just cowering in fear... Bla bla bla. What is more likely: the US is the largest propaganda producer in the world, or China is? And what about in 1992? The idea that China is capable of controlling the minds of 1.4 billion people, some 560 million (130M more people than the entire US) of which live rurally, but that the US, with the combination of state, corporation, shareholders, the wealthiest country to ever exist, the NSA, CIA, FBI, and all the other known instances of creating propaganda is to be believed uncritically is beyond the fucking pale. At the barest minimum, you should hear what the US is saying and then assume there is some fuckery going on and then go hear the other side of the story.
Did I say that? I didn’t say innovation was over, but you said the 80s had a ripping market with high interest rates. I explained why. The question is to you, what is the next PC, internet or mobile device, cause those are the big three that have changed everything? You don’t know. Neither do I. So are the odds better that it is nothing, or something, and the something is a thing that doesn’t even exist at scale now? Peter Thiel often talks and writes about how outside of the area i mentioned, there has really been no big advancements since WW2. It’s ok to be a dreamer, but realize, you are an optimistic dreamer, not basing any of your beliefs on …..facts. You are hoping. Hope is not a strategy.
During WW2, the Japanese sent thousands of balloons armed with bombs into the atmosphere, because they knew the winds would carry them to the US. They were able to calculate the exact amount of helium needed to keep the balloons inflated to reach the US and then run out of helium over US soil to drop bombs. It sounds insane, but the Japanese were actually successful..in fact, they killed 6 Americans in Oregon, 5 of which were children. The US govt went to extreme lengths to cover it up so that the Japanese could not get word that their operations were successful at attacking mainland US.
>BRICS reserve currency > >dat eurocentric apolitical take > >"Guys GUYS we created a cool acronym, Now Brazil, Russia, India and china are all aligned politically!!!" Do you have any idea how much each of those actors hates and tries to outcompete one another? There are very few valid acronyms and I never see them mentioned. CUM (Canada, US, Mexico). for North America SUS (Southern Union of States). for South America EWWWWW (European World of warring "wimble-womble" Weapon-providers) for Europe And COCK (China Or Common Knowledge) for Asia. Those will be the blocks involved in WW4. WW3 will be fought between the East and the West.
The problem with this sub is that most of you were bulls when you should have been bears and bears now when you should be bulls. It seems to me that your mood align with the overall market performance so you can't see breaks in the cycle If you are a bear right now you better hope for a WW3 scenario with Russia and China, otherwise I see nothing else going your way. Next quarter guidance won't save you because it won't be as bad as some of you think and will be more than offset by the big decline in inflation and expectations of FED decreasing rates.
Stocks don't care about your feelings If it goes up, it's because you're lucky If it goes down, it's because you're regarded If it goes right, it's because you're still breathing If it goes left, it's WW3 Leave your feelings out of it
War is also a Pandora's Box for the higher ups, just look at WW1, how many empires survived that one? This is why WW3 not that likely as many people might think, Russia was supposed to start it tens of times now, and the unthinkable(for many) - actual Russia invasion - has already happened.
This entire sub is really fixated on weeks old news when they watched just last week how fast insider money trades. The rocket hit Poland, the VIX spiked 6%. By the time the report was 45 minutes old the VIX had already given up 50% of its 6% gain in the day. Smart/insider money already knew it wasn't the start of WW3 by the time most of us got our WSB notifications. I promise you that you will not become rich because you traded on weeks old news. Maybe your puts will print for some other reason but it's not because you had the jump on Foxconn news.
Nobody what VM says. Remember this. He’s right. The poors of the world have ruined everything. They don’t even drive a Mercedes Benz. Can we just run them over with a tank? Wait what? You’re saying that’s what WW1 WW2 and Vietnam war was for? And bc of the public outcry against war.. it’s getting harder to send our poors out to die in battle. It’s getting harder and harder to be kill off the poors. They want things now. Like food. What a joke. Food. Go eat some oxygen, read a couple books on facism. And go back to the gutter you came from.
Hoarding gold is closer to emergency preparedness than investing, too, with the caveat that it isn't actually useful for anything on its own. Nobody's saying gold would have *no value*, but it has no real purpose by itself, it weighs a fuck ton, and it probably won't be nearly as valuable as you think, especially compared to things people actually need. If you're going to hoard something for WW3, sure, keep a little gold, but there are plenty of better things to fill your stash with.
Seriously EU. What the fuck are you doing? Going into a civil war over license plate decals? Can you at least warn someone when you're about to kick of WW1 again so I can buy puts? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/22/number-plate-row-in-kosovo-threatens-to-spark-civil-unrest-serbia
The US hasn't been in a true "engagement" since WW2. Everything we've done since then has been attempts at political dominamtion while bombing insurgents and revolutionaries and attempting to minimize collateral damage. In a total war scenario we could level entire countries to the ground in a few short weeks without having to touch our nuclear arsenal.