Reddit Posts
Can we make a log of brokerage-specific trading rules?
[Hypothetical Question] How much could shorts gain if a $4T stock collapsed
Can someone explain the purpose of 'price targets' by experts?
A regard's critique of "I'm buying IPO shares to sell on the day 1 rip"
Trying to understand the full implications of selling both short and medium/long expiry calls
DUe to the fragil state of the entire world econemy - this is sure to expload
Which android app is best for stock price alerts?
What’s your opinion on selling All Tech Heavy Stocks soon and moving to SP500 $VOO?
The biggest lie in investing: "I understand the company."
How do you track whether your original reason for owning a stock is still true?
How do you track whether your original reason for owning a stock is still true?
I built a 9-agent AI investment committee, the debate every stock sequentially - each analyst reads all previous report before writing their own
Block ($XYZ) just laid off 4,000 people while sitting on $8 BILLION in cash. Here's what the SEC filings actually show.
OK so the entire housing supply chain reports earnings this week and I don't think anyone's noticed
Bear credit spread but I am happy to be assigned.
Nike to cut 775 employees as it accelerates ‘automation’ at U.S. distribution centers
Tired of Pumps? I'm doing real DD on 5 tickers every Monday. Starting today: your ticker gets The Full Autopsy.
Confused about the "30 days before" part of wash sale rules
I let AI build me a portfolio and it beat the market
$MSAI:"The Turnaround" - A Real-Life Drama - The Story of the Man Who Bet $17M on a Dying Company
How do I find out is something is being Short Squeezed?
Penny stock trading: a multi-level-player game that you can win if you are prepared
White list - continued in comments
Help on wonder why this happens when "selling" a stock.
Private Trader - My Portfolio and Risk Management
Private Trader - My Portfolio and Risk Management
You Don’t Actually Own Your Stocks We Might Need a Digital Certificates
You Don’t Actually Own Your Stocks We Might Need a Digital Certificates
Digital Stocks, But Tamper-Proof
You Don’t Actually Own Your Stocks We Might Need a Digital Certificates
My 13th week selling non-degenerate options. $1,700 in premiums and returns on $105k deployed
TNF Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TNFA) Technical Signal Analysis: A Lack of Conventional Indicators TNF Pharmaceuticals (TNFA.O) experienced a massive 14.89% intraday gain, but no standard technical signals—such as head and shoulders, double top/bottom, MACD death/golden crosses, or RSI oversold conditio
Having some trouble understanding Market Makers
Thoughts on CHYM currently below their IPO price?
Understanding RSI — The Relative Strength Index
Best platform to look up historical intra day performance of a stock?
S&P 500 may get a new member soon! Which company do you think would make it into the index?
Block’s CashApp NYC billboard. Timothee Chalamet. Nothing else. $100 soon
The exact strategy I'd use if I had to start over with $5k
Brokers who don't charge margin interest on balanced long-short positions w/cash deficit?
(07/21) Sarepta Slumps - Interesting Stocks Today!
(07/21) Sarepta Slumps - Interesting Stocks Today!
ADBE, AMPX, ASML or XYZ? I want to pick only one stock with 5k
Not counting the chickens early but XYZ calls just went in the money
Do you compare annualized ROI among potential credit trades?
Cash-secured put gone wrong? The 2x premium rule to cut losses
Thoughts on Block, ($XYZ), PYPL and other fintechs, in light of JPM plan to charge for data.
OTM strategy based on some custom formulas - simili formulaic alphas but not that fancy
Thoughts on Block, $XYZ, and other fintechs, in light of JPM plan to charge for data.
I built a bot that trades based on insider activity (Form 4 data). Need your feedback on the best user experience.
I built a bot that trades based on insider activity (Form 4 data). Need your feedback on the best user experience.
If you have an account deficit of XYZ and can't open a new position, just keep refreshing it'll go away. No need to delete the Robinhood app
When whales are selling off, how does anybody know who it is?
Sold many Multibagger too early, whats next now
GENIUS stablecoin and potential push for tokenization
GENIUS stablecoin and potential push for tokenization
Big loss on covered call, what's the move?
Block (XYZ) plunges 20% as they announce Cash App has had 0% user growth for the past 4 straight quarters
Mentions
People are saying to ignore wash sale rules. That is extremely dangerous and I don't know why people say to ignore that over and over again. Bad things can happen. Here is an example: You open a credit spread on 2/11/2026: 1. Buy 10 XYZ call options at a $100 strike that expires on 1/21/2028 2. Sell 10 XYZ call options at a $130 strike that also expires on 1/21/2028 On 12/8/2026 stock XYZ rockets to $200/shr and so you close the position for nearly max profit on the credit spread: 1. Sell To Close Option 10 XYZ call options, Strike $100 for around a $100,000 profit. 2. Buy to Close 10 XYZ call options, Strike $130 for around a $70,000 loss. Net profit is around $30,000. Then on 12/22/2026 (within 30 days of closing the credit spread) you decide to do a PMCC and do the following: 1. Buy 10 XYZ call options at a $130 strike that expires on 1/21/2028 (same call as before that was closed for a loss). 2. Sell 10 XYZ call options at a $210 strike that expires on 2/18/2027 (a completely different call from anything before). Now you have a big problem. You have bought back the 1/21/2028 strike $130 that has the $70,000 loss and therefore is now declared a wash sale. You made a net profit of $30,000 and would normally (if no wash sale) would be paying taxes on a $30,000 gain. But because of the wash sale you will be paying taxes on the $100,000 profit while the $70,000 loss is put on hold until you sell the 10 XYZ call options at a $130 strike that expires on 1/21/2028. Once you close that $130 strike option you can then claim that loss, but if you don't get that done before the end of the year you will have to pay the tax consequences on the $100,000 gain (and can't use the loss to offset). The wash sale loss will show up in your 1099s from your brokerage and is also sent to the IRS so they IRS will know about that for sure and you will be paying taxes on a $100,000 gain and not just a $30,000 gain. And there are other things as well. The IRS states that wash sales can occur between 2 securities that are substantially identical but they have never clarified that I know of whether 2 options with different strikes/expirations are substantially identical or not. But the brokerages do not treat them as substantially identical in the 1099s they send out. And it appears most people don't report them as wash sales either and just report what the brokerages sent in the 1099s (which includes me, I also report just what the brokerages send in the 1099s). And to add more confusion to the mix, if you use the Trade Log software to do your 8949s for taxes, by default it considers all options with the same underlying stock (XYZ in my example) as substantially identical securities and would consider all option trades with the same XYZ underlying stock as potential wash sale situations. So IOW, in my example where I did the PMCC, then any long call option on the XYZ stock would cause a wash sale issue (not just the XYZ Call $130 strike, 1/21/2028 expiration but any strike/expiration). Not really sure why TradeLog has done that and it doesn't seem like anyone else does either (maybe there are and I don't know about it). TradeLog does have a setting to treat options with different strikes/expirations as **NOT** substantially identical, but the default is to treat them as identical. But if you were to **close all your positions** on 12/1/2026 and also **did no more trades** until 1/2/2026 then you would be clear of any wash sale issues (all positions would be closed and no wash sales would be present and therefore you didn't open a new one until at least 30 days has passed which would have created a new wash sale problem). So IOW, but if instead you just stopped trading on 12/1/2026 for more than 30 days (but still had open positions) that might not clear the wash sale problem because of those open positions. You have to close a position to be able to eliminate a wash sale problem. In my case since I will still have open positions on 12/31/2026 so I have to also worry about if I have bought any positions 30 days before the closing loss which is where you are getting the 60 days thing. The rule is if you buy a position #1 30 days before or 30 days after a closing position #2 for a loss, you will create a wash sale issue (and there is where 60 days comes in). But by closing all your positions on 12/1/2026 you only need to worry about the 30 days after a loss and don't have to worry about anything bought before the loss (since you will have no open positions on 12/31/2026). Also I don't treat options like the TradeLog software does and I just report what the brokerages send in the 1099s (keeping my finger crossed I don't receive a mail from the IRS).
“In XYZ gitlab pipeline, setup integration tests that cover all the operations of XYZ spring service. 1. Ensure that round trip create and get returns the same data. 2. That invalid payloads are rejected (see schema) and 3. That schema coverage is at least 80%. The tests should restore our testing Postgres database snapshot. Run it using the docker compose file” That will 99% of the time get your service covered lol. Absolutely there are more software engineering best practices to bake in here, but the scaffolding can be done in like 30 minutes. Give it proper permissions, and it will run until jobs are succeeding, and it will cut a MR.
Brother with respect the difference here is that AI fundamentally doesn’t work. It costs the same amount of money to get a wrong answer as it does to get a right answer, but you don’t know which one you’re getting unless you check. Like, sometimes these LLMs are correct, but that’s only because they are drawing from an enormous amount of written text that tends to be correct, not because it’s actually doing any sort of actual intelligence. There’s just no path to profit in the long-term because the entire venture is doomed, if we actually want something akin to a real artificial intelligence, we are going to need to rebuild from the ground up entirely, because the way that AI works now it’s just a bunch of logic gates and statistics algorithms in a trenchcoat Another reason it’s not getting better anytime soon is because these big tech companies with AI models are mandating that their employees integrate those models into their workflow. But, like I said before, those AI models don’t work. They they don’t just hallucinate sometimes, their fundamental mechanism is hallucination. It doesnt even process entire words - it processes the frequency of appearances of letter combinations represented by number values. So what’s happening? Is that employees, not wanting to get in trouble, we’ll just do their own work on their own and then just say that they had XYZ proprietary AI model do it. And that would be harmless, except it means that the machine keeps getting broken, but all the c suite people are hearing about their product are that it works really well And some people argue that we have to invest big into AI otherwise, our international competitors are going to get to AGI before us, but again, the ingredients we are using to make this thing fundamentally do not make, and will never make artificial intelligence. We can call AI all we want, but it’s just applied statistics
“Why is XYZ dumping?” Idk maybe look at the earnings yourself or actually listen to the call
My thing is, she doesn't tell me these things like "hey, im feeling XYZ right now, I need some space, lets just talk later or something" She literally turns to me, asks me, so you're leaving or what. I looked at her like wtf? I don't get any type of anything? Everyone just leaves, smiles on their faces, and suddenly its just fuck me? She began to apologize but then continued rolling her eyes, getting angry with me, and telling me she just needs to go inside and be by herself (I was outside at this point in my car) Now, I understand I get visibly frustrated and salty back to her, but IDK, I try so hard not to, but this shit blindsides me every single time. Its literally like the flip of a switch. I just don't think she's doing the same mental gymnastics I am, and it really upsets me.
lol SPCX gains fading on XYZ. who actually ought that pump lol
Maybe I’m way off idk but my thought was a clean screenshot would be way easier to say “change ABC to XYZ” versus recreating that wavy screen effect when you take a photo of a monitor that goes away with zooming in
Market just hates Fintech. XYZ with a killer earnings report and several price target raises, dumps 6%
I'm on a similar path. Yesterday I sold $200,000 of XYZ (Square) stock. The reason was simple. I got out with a decent profit at a high just before earnings. I was too heavily weighted in XYZ and needed to reduce the risk. I still have 2300 shares so this was nowhere near my entire position sold.
I want XYZ and Dorsey to fail so bad. No I don't want your pretend cash app money nerd
FWIW, without an edge the EV of any options contract is zero. That aside, CSP and CC literally have the same P&L chart, so how do you think about them so differently? Like, you would be OK with this: Have a bunch of cash Sell Put on XYZ exp 8/14 Strike 100 at 1 Because you are getting paid to do a limit buy order But you would not be OK with this: Own 100 shares of XYZ at 100 Sell Call on XYZ exp 8/14 Strike 100 at 1 Because now you are selling based on a particular strike and you don't like to do that. If you so prefer the CSP, you could just exchange these positions for a few pennies per share and increase your relative happiness with next to no effect on your long term P&L. If you get assigned, you can just immediately sell the shares and write another CSP and again increase your relative happiness for next to no cost. I mean this does assume you have a good broker that's charging low/no fees for your activity, but the math holds. You should be looking at P&L charts, rather than going by gut feel about what strategies do what. Or you could just quit options because anyone with no edge would be better off by doing that.
Sorry it took so long for me to get back to you, I had to move my Dad. The **average price** of anything is just the **total cost** you paid for a bunch of them, divided by **how many** of them you own. Say it's boxes of cereal, and you buy 1 box for $4.00. Then say next week they're on sale for $2 and you buy another box. You can probably see straightaway that your average cost is $3 *per box*, but here's the math: ($4 + $2) / 2 boxes = $3 per box That's your **average** price. Now say it's stock in XYZ. You like it and think it'll go up, so you buy 1 share for $100. Now say it goes up to 102, and you still like it, so you buy 1 more share for $102. Average price: (100 + 102) / 2 = $101 per share What's cool about it is that now you have an ***average*** **purchase price you can compare to** ***today's*** **price.** You're up $1 per share, *on average.* Then maybe you'd like to keep adding to your position, so every week you buy 1 more share. And say those purchase prices look like this (keeping the original 2): 100, 102, 103, 102, 104, 105, 103, 105, 106, 108 Now you own 10 shares of XYZ at those prices. But how well have you done overall? Simply add them up and divide by 10: $1,038 / 10 shares = $103.80 *per share* So now that XYZ is at 108, *on average* you're up (108- 103.80) = $4.20 per share. It works the same way for options. Maybe you buy 1 LEAPS Call for $1.00, then tomorrow buy another one for 1.05, then the next day, another one for 1.10. Add those dollar amounts up and divide by 3 to get $1.05 as your *average cost per option.* **What's your ticker, and what Calls do you own?** I can look at it and maybe give you a better idea of what's going on. But you're on the right track with theta decay, and if the stock has gone up "multiple dollars," then you'd expect its LEAPS Calls to go up in value also. But there's definitely a balancing act going on between the value of the underlying stock and time (plus volatility, but let's hold that constant for now). Oh, I just thought of something: are these Calls **out** of the money? I'm going to bet they are, and that's why you're seeing what you're seeing. But go ahead and tell me the ticker and which strike in what expiration. Back to the balancing act: If the underlying stock stayed **flat**, we'd expect the Call option to lose money day by day. That's theta decay at work. Take the Extrinsic Value and divide it by the DTE, and that's about how many cents it should lose per day. But let the stock go **up** a little, and now the value of the option should go up too. And it goes up *at the rate of Delta.* So if the stock goes up $1, and the option is at 80-delta, then the option's value should go up by 80 cents, $0.80. $1.00 x 0.80 (Delta, as a percentage) = 0.80 That's where we make our money, the option's value going up when the stock goes up. But your options losing value (down from 0.83 to 0.49) while the stock goes **up** doesn't make sense. Unless the options are **in** the money, in which case Theta might simply be overpowering Delta. As an aside, that's why it's SO important to buy options deep ITM, 80-delta or better. Even 90-delta. Or even the first 1.00-delta strike you hit. And that's because ALL of an **O**TM option's value is Extrinsic and subject to theta decay. Whereas only a FRACTION of an **I**TM option's value is Extrinsic and subject to time/theta decay. Think of the Extrinsic value as the 'rent' you pay to "control" 100 shares of XYZ. That rent ticks away day after day. If the rent is high, then you'll lose money faster than the stock going up can make up for it. Take care, Mike
Here are a couple things I've learned about investments: \-When prices and hype are high, and people say you're crazy not to own XYZ, that's often the top \-When something gets a high return, buyers flood it raising the price, and the investment stops earning "more than normal" \-People often pile into something that has gained a lot, but after the "gained a lot" phase, its gains return to normal Investments that have high returns are usually accompanied by volatility. You've just experienced 25% volatility, but it doesn't mean a 25% loss, unless you sell. Of course, there's no guarantee that gold will ever be back to the price you bought it. It probably will in nominal terms, but in inflation adjusted dollars, you might not break even. The one silver lining is if you owned a small portion of your overall portfolio in gold, and intended it to be a buffer against volatility for the whole portfolio. It counterbalanced the large gain in stocks (which should be a larger part of your total portfolio). If you look at it as insurance, then it did its job; we don't gripe too much about the insurance we bought but never used. I don't own gold because the only time period it made decent gains was after the US went off the gold standard in the 1970s, and that was a one-time event. Sure if you owned gold in 2007 or 2020, you did well over the next couple years, but what would have led someone to place that bet?
Thank you. More people need to understand this. I cringe Everytime I see a video that says "Everytime XYZ happened the market was within 1 month of an all time high" Almost every time my grandma farted was within 1 month of an all time high lol
The most common reason stock XYZ is down 40% in any period is because it should never have been where it was in the first place and sensible people finally realized that.
There is a 90 chance of pump and 10 of being flat and 0% negetive, because while we normal civilian were buying puts ,scaming institutes were selling puts and working why "XYZ is bullish" narrative!
XYZ, buzz is collapsing software engineers tooling
you should’ve bought da XYZ mate
If you have 1 million shares of XYZ and want to sell and I want to buy 1 million shares, we can sort of directly trade with each other and bi-pass an exchange Its a bit more complicated than that but large organizations can trade directly with each other off exchange if they want. There is a lot of conspiracies meme stock pumpers put out the reason their meme stock isn't going to the moon is because the price is somehow suppressed by these dark pools
Plotting tank bottoms on this specific chart would not be appropriate. Tank bottom thresholds today are not the same as tank bottom thresholds a year ago, are not the same as tank bottom threshholds 40 years ago. You're misunderstanding the purpose of this specific chart. The goal is not to show when we're going to run out. In fact, that would be a completely a different chart. Having 40 days of daily domestic consumption in inventory does not mean we're going to run out in 40 days. If you wanted to plot when the US is forecasted to reach tank bottoms, you would show forward looking dates, and you would show not just inventory, but also daily domestic crude production alongside import/export. We're arguing about one chart in a larger report. I wouldn't be surprised if tank bottom forecasting charts are contained in the exact same report this chart is pulled from. You're basically saying "why doesn't the chart show XYZ, when it should really show abc". The oil market is complex, and you can't distill the complete picture into a single chart. That doesn't mean the chart posted is invalid or not inherently useful.
NQ futures on XYZ flat
That is a VERY common behavioral pattern, yes. So good for you for becoming aware of it in yourself. However, you are only addressing one mistake, more on that later. The one you are not addressing is that **conviction should not be based on emotional attachment**. Conviction should be based on facts. Not hopes, not hunches, not a wish and a prayer. The fact could be statistical and could be historical, like XYZ has been range bound in the final week of every one of the prior 24 months (fact), so it's reasonable to expect it to be bound to the same range this month (educated guess). Does that guarantee it will be? No, because the past can't predict the future with 100% accuracy. But at least that prediction is defensible statistically, even if it is not a 100% guarantee. The perfect mindset is to have **no emotional attachment to anything about the trade whatsoever**, including losing 100% of your capital in the trade. Win, lose, draw, you should be indifferent to the outcome of any one trade, because you don't win or lose on a single trade. You win or lose with your long term averages after hundreds of trades. Now, I'm not saying I'm perfect, nobody human is, and I'm going to be as upset as anyone would be to lose 100% of my capital in a trade, but it's an aspiration to aim for. With that established, sizing to conviction is the correct decision, as long as the conviction is based on facts. Where things were going wrong was *caring about the size of intermediate moves*. In other words, the wrong fix is to change the way you size. The right fix is to stop caring about what your positions do before you reach your profit/loss or holding time targets that you [planned ahead of time with what-if scenarios](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/mondayschool/yourplan). Why should you care that your trade is losing $100, $500, $1000 when you are only 10 days into a 30 day hold? If you had **won** $100, or $500, or $1000, would you be patting yourself on the back for being a genius? Why? If your take profit target is $5000 and your loss limit is $2000, none of those intermediate gains or losses have any bearing on your plan or decisions. They are just random fluctuations that are neither here nor there.
What I'm trying to say is that there are tax rules where the unrealized gain is required to become a realized gain even if an investor have not sold the position. That's what section 1259 and constructive sale describes. A simple example is a short against the box. If an investor owns 100 shares of XYZ - if XYZ appreciates, the investor could then short XYZ to lock in the gain. The gain from the long position is unrealized. But it's considered a constructive sale and the investor is supposed to re-characterize the unrealized gain and pay a capital gain tax. It's not technically illegal but most brokers will not allow for short sales against the box. It is also possible to create a position that neutralizes a long position using derivatives. It's how hedging works. So what OP is concerned about has to do with derivative positions that could technically look like a constructive sale and be subject to straddle rules. So - to give a specific example. Let's say that an investor bought 500 shares of SPY today. And SPY goes up a lot and the investor wants to lock in the gains. But the investor doesn't want to sell the position because it's a short term gain and may be at a tax disadvantage. So - the investor could short an /ES future which effectively neutralizes the long SPY position. The investor can then wait until the SPY long position is a long term gain to unwind the position. The same thing could be done using SPY options with a collar or synthetic short future. There is some debate as to whether these types of derivative strategies are supposed to be treated like constructive sales. And it's clear as mud. Also - while unrelated to what OP is asking about - a more common scenario are people that claim mark-to-market accounting under section 475(f). At the end of the tax year - all gains and losses are marked and gains are taxable regardless of whether the position is realized or unrealized. This is usually what active traders will do to keep the tax issues simple. Similarly - long futures contacts are always mark to market and unrealized gains are taxable. Hope that makes sense.
I am in no way anything close to a tax person in any way but just someone who does a lot of Covered Calls and Poor Mans Covered calls and have wondered about that very question on the tax straddle rules (specifically Loss Deferred Rules in IRS Publication 550) over the past 5 years at least (probably closer to 10). I have asked about it many many times and here is what I have found out. Nobody knows. So here is what I have experienced. So backing up a bit for clarity on this, if you sell XYZ for a loss (call it position 1) but then also within 30 days (before or after) and buy XYZ again (call it position 2) you cannot claim the loss on position 1 until you close position 2. This is called a wash sale and if you do all your trades within the same account all the brokerages track this for you and it will be shown and accounted for in your 1099s. They will change/adjust the cost basis for position 2 to account for the loss when you sell position 2. Now let's add the Loss Deferral Rules of IRS Publication 550 situation to this (which talks about a straddle). You own 100 shares of SPY and the opening price of SPY is $754.24 for 7/15/2026. You then (on 7/15/2026) sell a short 8/21/2026 SPY call with a $758 strike (more than 1 strike above the opening $754.24 price for that day) and if you then close that short call for a loss, you cannot claim that loss until you close that 100 SPY straddle position. Unlike wash sales they don't adjust the cost basis of the SPY shares but instead I believe once you close the straddle SPY position I think you file form 6781 to reclaim that loss on the SPY short call (have never done it, just once accidentally came upon it when dealing with 1256 contracts and noticed form 6781 seemed to refer to this situation). So all of this is somewhat spelled out in IRS Publication 550 Loss Deferral Rules (there is way more than this in it and also a ton more I don't fully understand). But here is what is really confusing/unknown/etc to me. Unlike wash sales brokerages do not track this even when all the trading is done in the same account. So it's apparently up the the investor or his tax guy to apply this in his taxes. Over the past few years I have seen this talked about and I have asked (on Reddit and other forums) if anyone has applied these rules and the only response I have got one guy responded that he does his short calls in his IRA so it doesn't apply. No one else responded (all went silent). I have asked if anyone knows of a situation where someone was audited and had to apply those Loss Deferral Rules to their taxes and nobody has ever replied that they know of any situation were the IRS has done that. I saw one tax related website that said that said that you would not be audited for compliance for the Loss Deferral Rules but if you were audited for something else then the IRS might apply those rules. But that is just what they said and they didn't say that they have seen the IRS apply those rules. I have many times sold a short call that was more than 1 strike ITM and later closed it for a loss and I have never applied those Loss Deferral Rules and have never encountered a problem with the IRS. I have probably done this over the past 13 years but have only been aware of it for the past 8 years or so. So I know in the past 8 years I have probably had a Loss Deferral Rule situation at least 40 times I am sure (the previous 5 years I wasn't aware of it, but I am pretty sure I probably had that situation during that time as well). So I know of no one on this planet that has applied those rules nor of anyone who has been audited for not applying those rules. Over the past few years near tax time I have asked this question on the forums but it's always the same. Few people even know about it and no one has ever applied those rules. I now just ignore it for the most part and cross my fingers. There are times I will roll a short call way up just to avoid hitting that situation, but many times I don't and so far it has worked out (but make sure my fingers are crossed). So that is what I know. Good luck. (Again, not a tax expert by any stretch of the imagination).
You are investing with FOMO. By the time a stock is trending, it is already too late to buy it. Some people can stumble into success by chasing trends with good timing, but you either aren’t getting your info early enough or you aren’t sticking to positions long enough. Do you know something that the market doesn’t? If the answer is “No”, then all that is left in a stock pick is a degree of educated gambling. You are either saying “I see the risks, but I am feeling bolder than the market because of XYZ” or just gambling that you can ride a wave and surf it better than your peers when you make a stock pick. Based on the fact that you’ve got a lot of micro stock holdings with $500 in the account, I’m going to assume that you’re checking constantly and trying to time daily trades or something similar with robinhood. Don’t bother with all that if you are hoping to build a portfolio. The market’s ups downs are almost always best ignored in the long term by a steady investor. Pick a few etfs that you feel good about (you want low expense ratios, diverse holdings, and sectors that you have researched the prospects of). If your goal is to try and make the huge 700% returns that you see on here sometimes, you’re also just not making the plays for that with call options etc.. Those are probably about as reliable as taking your whole portfolio and putting it on 17 black at the casino - at least you have a 3% chance there.
When you see lawyer ads that are targeted at you “if you company XYZ stock between January 1 202X and March 31, 202X, YOU may be entitled to relief!!! Call me, Alabama!!!”
1. The fuck? The funds that pump out the most alpha, in fact, tend to be the most rigorous and systematic. You still can’t explain how you pick your delta or why it’s even a good measure to look at given how unstable it is. Please stop with the hand waving, and start quantifying things. 2. No. It’s a TERRIBLE return. Please look up the current variance risk premium on wtv index you sell. And then think about how much more you should make by being intelligent about it. 3. Well to start, we look to decide whether options are cheap or expensive, and why. What’s the appropriate premia to sell XYZ vol, all things considered. Not just say up 1% sell further OTM options. 4. This isn’t a strategy, bro. You’re blindly collecting a risk premia when the market has already made a big move without a quantifiable - or even explainable - edge. Hell you haven’t even attempted to price the options you’re selling. Do what you want, the problem is your selling this bs to people who don’t know better, and it’s likely to cost them money.
This is basically "A Habit" problem. . . related to mind mechanics. . . Telling someone to stop is not going to work What works is recognizing that "It Is A Habit / Mind / Mental Problem" and taking necessary steps 1. Recognize the underlying problem 2. Staying away for > 30 Days 3. Practicing mindfulness - join meditation, learn tricks that works for that specific individual on how to switch to something / distract 4. Continuing meditation and identifying and creating approaches (reading charts, looking at different MAs, Bolinger bands, Volume and others that matter to his or her thinking style) to trading as opposed to relying on some inputs from XYZ Trading Guru ( I have seen GuruFocus signals, btw) 5. Once approaches are crafted, look at when there is a dip and buy calls that are long dated 6.
I track them the same way my broker does on the 1099, which is the way the IRS does, assuming you pay US taxes. Staying in sync with all that means less work and confusion at tax time. Example: * Jan - BTO XYZ 100c for net cost of $10 * Feb - Roll out 100c to 120c for net cost of -$2 (STC 100c for $12, BTO 120c for $10) * Mar - Roll out 120c to 110c for net cost of $1 (STC 120c for $9, BTO 110c for $10) * Apr - Close 110c for $11.67 The way I would track that is as three separate and independent taxable events: 1. Feb - Net short term capital gain of $2. 1. Mar - Net short term capital loss of -$1. 1. Apr - Net short term capital gain of $1.67. Every time you close an option trade is a taxable event, with no connection to anything that comes before or after (unless it's a wash sale). A roll is just a close bundled with an open in a single order for convenience, so by definition, **every roll is a taxable event**. So just track the close of the previous position as a self-contained gain/loss. You're overcomplicating things by trying to see a "whole stock position story". That's pointless, in the first place, since what really matters at the end of the day (or week, or month, or year) is the net gain/loss of your entire portfolio. Secondly, the stock is less important than the volatility the stock represents. Do you care about NVDA more or less than SPCX? Those should be two random sequences of letters to you, because the stock matters less than the pricing of volatility of the contracts in question. Today it could be MSFT that offers the best vol, while tomorrow it could be HD. Unless you are doing some kind of fundamentals trading supplemented by options, the specifics of the underlying stock are rarely worth paying attention to. The only metric that matters is return on risk, as a long term average, after say every 100 closed trades. You can easily track how much is at risk by tracking opening prices (whether you track buying power at risk or only changes in cash balance is up to you).
Extraordinarily funny that Xi's tactic of saying "We're going to do XYZ wildly expensive thing" just to make American companies spend crazy money keeps working.
“I’m smarter than the market. I can outperform during XYZ market conditions by timing, picking select sectors, and shorting” \- 95% of people who try and inevitably fail to outperform just buying VT and holding
At one point in 2021, fintechs were all the rage. PYPL and SQ (now XYZ) reached $300, AFRM was $170, even shitcos like UPST was selling at $400. Media outlets were foaming at the mouth for the great future that awaits. Analysts were coming out with upgrades and new PTs every week. The future was all fintech, some even doubted banks and Visa & Mastercard would survive. Most of these companies have lost +90% of their value and have never recovered. This is what awaits some of these overhyped stocks and companies that pumped endlessly on pure hopium last year or two.
Yes, you can sell XYZ and buy ZYX with the proceeds but buying XYZ again will result in good faith violation if you don't have enough settled funds. Same logic applies to options. What is not clear to me is how that logic applies to spreads.
Assuming your broker has a minimum equity requirement of 5K. You want to buy a credit spread. The BP required is 100% of the cost. You must buy to open and sell to close the spread as a spread. You cannot leg in or trade one leg at a time because you do not have the approval to sell naked options. For example, if you want to buy a XYZ 100/95 put spread for 1.00. It will cost 100 and your BP will decrease by 100. From this point on, your BP will not decrease further due to this put spread but can be increased if the PS increases in value. A problem can arise if XYZ is between 95 and 100 at expiration. Your 100 put will be exercised and your 95 put is worthless. The exercise will require you to sell 100 shares. If you do not have the shares, most brokers will liquidate your 100 put before expiration which may get you up to 5. Your BP will increase. You can also sell to close the put spread yourself. You should not have any problems with BP trading debit spreads
Well half of OP's question was about managing the emotional aspect of it, and the answer to that is index funds help. Which is why everyone is saying that. As for the how to pick stocks part: if an 18 year old asks what's the best bank to get a loan for a new Mustang, the answer isn't XYZ Bank, it's to discourage the imminent disaster. Someone who's having trouble emotionally handling buying and selling simply shouldn't be buying individual stocks. It's a recipe for loss and poor decisions.
I can't follow all these obscure private and off-balance-sheet companies closely enough to have an informed opinion. But what I do know is that it always plays out the same: Somebody gets into this position during every bubble. IMO, it's not about being exactly right about picking winners and losers, it's more about recognizing where we are in a macro sense and understanding that everything will go up or down based on the macro environment. If irresponsible AI company ABC goes broke, then even responsible AI company XYZ will lose most of its value.
If you are not a Day Trader (IOW, you are not declaring TTS-Trader Tax Status) wash sale rule applies even if you aren't taking the maximum $3,000 that you can deduct against regular income. For example, you are not a TTS trader and you have a loss on Stock XYZ (Lot 1) of $10,000 but also within 30 days buy back stock XYZ (Lot 2) you cannot claim that $10,000 loss until you get rid of Lot 2 even when not wanting to take the $3,000 deduction against regular income/interest/etc. Makes no difference, that $10,000 wash sale loss is stuck with that Lot 2 until you get rid of Lot 2. *> If you do not care about trying to deduct the loss, you can buy and sell the same stock/option all you want, right?* **If you have the IRS TTS status** (Trader Tax Status) **THEN** you can buy and sell all you want and no Wash Sale rule applies and I believe you apply any amount of losses against any income (earned income, interest etc) and there is no $3,000 maximum deduction against regular income/interest/etc/. From what I understand a TTS person's day trading gains/losses is treated as just regular income. But I am not familiar with this at all (never been involved with TTS), so not all that confident on this TTS status person stuff. And actually I am not anywhere close to a tax expert at all (not a CPA of any sort), I just know of what I have experienced with my taxes over the past 25 years or so of dealing with it. So don't take what I say as gospel, but just from a person who has dealt with this stuff over the years.
That sounds correct. But just to make sure it is clear (which I think you are clear, but just want to make sure). With the security/stock you made 1000 similar transactions with, we are still assuming you made no more transactions with that security and you closed out that security. IOW, we are still saying you completely closed out that position/security. What they are trying to prevent is let's say you are losing $10,000 on stock ABC with 100 shares. They don't want you to be able to sell that 100 shares and get to take a $10,000 loss on your taxes and immediately (within 30 days) buy back the 100 shares back. You would be taking a loss, but really never had a loss yet because you still are in the same position and you are not really risking anything to take the loss (getting to take a loss when really there isn't one yet). Of course they can't prevent you from never being able to take the loss. So they want you to wait at least 31 days before allowing you to take the loss (thereby having to take some risk for 31 days). If you get completely out of the security/stock for 31 days you for sure can realize the loss (which can end up offsetting any other gains made). If you close out completely (no more positions in that stock) that 1000 transaction stock ABC (for a loss of $20,000) and you immediately buy a different stock XYX (on the same day you took the loss on ABC for instance) and you make a gain on stock XYZ of $20,000 you would still be able to claim that $20,000 loss (for a net $0 gain) because ABC and XYZ are different securities. I hope this make sense and doesn't make it more confusing. I am trying to add stuff that makes sense as to why the rules are the way they are.
I personally think it’s mostly Peter Thiel, Stephen Miller, and Ben Netanyahu. They’ve latched onto the fact that Trump hates brown people and are leaning in. It’s also very possible that they know what’s in the files and are holding it over their heads. Don’t get me wrong. Donald Trump is an absolutely disgusting idiot and is at least partially responsible but he’s not coming up with this shit on his own. Greenland, Venezuela, the Caribbean, Iran…someone is planting these ideas. I’m not sure Donald Trump could point to Greenland on a fucking map. Someone told him we should invade it because reason…XYZ and he’s so incoherent and incapable that he just ran with it. I am usually careful to speak in absolutes but…I am very confident that if you have Trump a blank map of South America, there is a near zero percent chance he could accurately label where Venezuela is. Even the tariffs. I legit think Trump honestly is dumb enough to believe that foreign companies were going to pay them. In reality, someone smart knew that the costs would be passed on to consumers, they would be illegal, and the companies that technically were on the bill would be refunded. It’s actually a genius scheme for massive wealth re-distribution from consumer to corporations. Don’t think for a second that Raytheon and Boeing are absolutely toasting champagne in their offices as we blow through a decades worth of Tomahawk missiles and JDAMs in Iran.
like 99% of those "innocent questions about share XYZ, which is totally undervalued"-postings, probably.
Okay, so first the good news. You have a [trade plan](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/wiki/faq/pages/mondayschool/yourplan) and an exit strategy. By doing so, you are ahead of about 99% of new traders at the same point in their careers. Now for the bad news. I don't understand what your scanner is supposed to do. It looks partly like what a **stock** trader would want and partly what an **option** trader would want. Metrics like Last Price (of the shares, I presume), Volume (again shares), and market cap might make sense for stock trading, but are close to useless for option trading. Typical option-trading scans focus on volatility, volatility, and volatility. Maybe some contract price history for momentum analysis, maybe contract volume and/or contract bid/ask spread for liquidity ranking. Drawing lines on a price chart is Technical Analysis. Just keep in mind that your analysis is on the *stock price history*, not the contract price history. It's already questionable to use TA to predict the future of a stock price, but to use TA on a stock price to predict the future of a contract price is pretty much sheer fantasy. Consequently, your take-profit and stop-loss settings for the option trade could end up doing the opposite of what you intend. It's a common occurrence when trading calls for the call's price to go down even when the stock price goes up. So you could hit your take-profit stock price and end up losing money on the contract trade. It's better to base all automation and conditions on contract prices. Gross level triggers, like I don't even want to enter the contract trade until XYZ stock price is above some dollar value, are fine, but once the contract itself is in play, all conditions should be based on the contract price, not the stock price.
Square… sorry I mean Block XYZ….
It certainly isn’t an edge when all the information it parses is public and widely available. It’s a good thought buddy for something like “What’s the forward P/E on this thing now compared to the industry average and how did that compare to the years leading up to XYZ?”. One could Google that info, but AI will compile or summarize it more quickly. The most helpful case for an average dude would be something like “I’ve never coded a Monte Carlo simulation. Can you tell me how that works and provide some sample code I can modify for my own purposes”. TLDR: It saves time for things we all could have figured out already. That allows for a little more output and the ability to make decisions a bit faster.
At some point in 2021, fintechs were all the rage. PYPL and SQ (now XYZ) reached $300, AFRM was $170, even shitcos like UPST reached $400. Fin media was foaming at the mouth for the great future that awaits. Analysts were coming out with upgrades and new PTs every week. The future was fintech, some even doubted banks and Visa/Mastercard would survive. This is what awaits these sham and endlessly pumped quantum and space companies.
When I point out that XYZ is a "threshold stock", it actually means something. I feel pretty good saying that everyone saw my multiple multiple warnings.
> The land grab isn't just for the governance layer anymore. It's for the technology that makes the seat-based model obsolete in the first place. > > Yeah, pretty much. Reeks of dipshit "Hey ChatGPT, write me a reddit post about XYZ"
So much fence sitting. Every time anything happened they had to wait six months before acting because "we don't know how it will affect XYZ". Oh and committed to 2% but it's been 5 years since 2% so not really. Dude didn't even pump the market, his meetings sucked.
I think it partly comes from people being very used to sitting in a large group of people and being the only one who can see the right solution, right away, but others refuse to see it your way until much later on in a discussion or process. If you experience that enough since childhood, you start to believe that you are truly the only one who “understands” most things more quickly and develop a certain level of arrogance, so when everyone around you is like “no, you’re nuts for thinking XYZ” you’re more likely to just ignore that as people just not catching up as quickly as you. It warps you a bit.
top 3 upward momentum stocks today: GOOG, XYZ, AAPL top 3 downward trend stocks today: INTC, NFLX, AVGO
All due respect to Elon he’s accomplished some cool shit and made some awesome stuff… but I agree he’s always said we’re gonna do XYZ by year 202X, and it never really happens… pretty sure space x said they’re going to start colonizing mars in 30 years with 1mm + people… I don’t see it… and even If we made it… who says there’s any chance that’s a profitable business model… I’d see it as more of a publicly traded VC firm to fund rocket building… maybe to acquires Twitter and other businesses along the way.
There's no doubt Musk is an incredible pitch man, and I don't mean that in a snake oil way - he says "fuck it, free your mind, ignore your predisposed thoughts on XYZ" and great at selling the dream. That's a great quality. The question is whether he has enough in the pipeline of dreams and deliverables to keep his shareholders believing. There's a lot that's been "soon" and he knows investor psychology well enough to keep people in a state of anticipation and FOMO. The question is how much patience people will have, and whether there will be so much bag holding/sunk cost that devotees will hang on until it's painfully obvious it's going nowhere (if that's the case). Bitcoin is actually pretty close to this in mentality (not the viability/instrument/etc.). "If it happens, I was there from the beginning or when it was worth X, I don't want to miss out on the runup, I don't want to be left behind". Bitcoin may be worth a shit ton. Or it may be worth zero at some point. The path is plausible enough to keep people engaged and buying. As they said, this is a bet on Musk, nothing more. If Musk is gone it'll still be viable but the premium won't be justified. My current rough thesis is he talks up a big game, but the actual deliverables haven't lived up to the hype. The Loop thing in Vegas? Dogshit. Autonomous vehicles? Nope. Robotaxi? "Soon". Cybertruck? Bust. Reusable rockets? Win. Tesla/EVs/Charging network? Win, but fading. Twitter/X? Dogshit. DOGE? Dogeshit. The valuation is based on him knocking things out of the park but his batting average is .700 one year and .125 the next.
I just did a deeper dive. It's not even an actual peace deal. It is just a MOU of what they are tentatively agreeing to discuss for a future deal. Nothing is guaranteed, including the nuclear material. It literally just says they agree to work on an agreement to remove nuclear material So that's it folks. It's a MOU (memorandum of understanding) where they are agreeing to work on an agreement for XYZ. And Iran did not say they are allowing 100% free pass-through in the Strait of Hormuz, ie a return to what it was pre February. Iran is saying they are still collecting "maintenance fees" to assist in rebuilding the infrastructure damaged during the strikes. So in summary - we are worse off than the deal Obama signed... 13 service members were killed, 400+ wounded, half of our arsenals depleted, a carrier had to be taken out of service, 50+ aircraft lost including some which are irresplaceable since they are no longer made anymore
So what you're saying is XYZ is bubble is fine and eventually becomings the most important business model of that decade?
It would have been endearing for him to just say, yeah, I play XYZ video games in my downtime as a stress relief or to stay connected to people or something, but no, he has to be the very best and it's loser behavior. So yeah, dude's weird af
I mean at this point surely not a single person on earth still believes this guy's constant lies about XYZ being just around the corner right? Self driving cars you can sleep in, robotaxis, colonies on moon or Mars, data centers in space. All have always and will always be “two to five years out” with this guy. So is the fact that his trash companies' stock is so highly valued just a self fulfilling prophecy at this point? Like we all think the SpaceX stock will moon because it’s him, so we all buy, so the stock moons?
market is going to close and then: "Deal is OFF. Iran is doing XYZ! Bombings to resume soon!"
It doesn't seem like there is clear answer to this. But let me give you my experience and my thoughts because I accidentally did this once. I sold stock XYZ for a loss call it lot A1 in taxable brokerage A for a loss. A few weeks later I (not thinking) bought the stock at brokerage B which was in a IRA account call it Lot B. Later that afternoon I realized what I had done and figured the best way to deal with this is to buy the stock back again in the taxable brokerage A account and call it Lot A2. This way brokerage A would automatically in the 1099s flag the Lot A1 loss as a Disallowed Loss and tie to Lot A2. Then I waited 31 days and sold Lot A2 so that brokerage A would automatically adjust the Cost Basis of Lot A2 to capture the loss in the 1099. So I added some risk to myself by having double the amount of shares that I desired for 31 days, but felt by having the Disallowed Loss/Cost Basis adjustment done automatically in the 1099s by the brokerage it would hopefully not alert/flag the IRS. I would assume it could be possible the IRS could audit my return and if it is determined that the replacement shares are chosen by First shares rebought (the Lot B in the IRA account) then it could be a problem. But I am not even sure there is a way to tell which was bought first (Lot B or Lot A2) because they were both bought on the same day (confirmations at Schwab at least don't have times, just dates). I did this in 2025 and have not had a problem with it.
Hrrrm it's somehow still too bullish in here...we haven't even seen the bears dancing gif posted yet. Usually by this time we're hearing about how this is basically the end of the US and people are bragging about being all cash in their 401k because they just knew it was the top when they saw XYZ happen.
On the money google (strike at the current price its at or as close to as possible) 1 week out. thats what you want. If you have fidelity or something else if youre not going to do it.... google how to paper trade (make a simulated option call) and do it so u can see what happens and practice. Just google how to papertrade an option on XYZ (repalce with your broker, robinhood fidelity etc whatever)
Once again redditors will lecture us about a company led by white supremacists, supported by XYZ bigots, but won't lift a finger to do anything besides the occasional No Kings protest followed by brunch afterwards...
Share price literally doesn't matter anymore, most brokerage allows you to buy fractional shares. Let's do an example, you buy 10 shares of XYZ for $5 each. You also buy 1 share of ABC for $50. Both companies go up 100% - you still have $100 either way. If you're interested in learning about investing, there are plenty of free resources out there. You look at things like earnings, peer valuations, and market cap. The market cap is the share price multipled by outstanding shares- it's the second part of that equation that you're missing. And yes, large cap companies tend have to lower growth potential because they're already huge, but you have to actually look at the value of the companies. Share price is irrelevant and only a psychological factor for uninformed retail investors.
Ive been stock heavy - because I love doing it and have been doing it now 19 years. However - I’m now forcing myself to go heavier into ETFs like (VOO / VTI / VT / SCHG / QQQM / VGT). I’ve had some huge winners - which are awesome - but I’ve also had some boneheaded losses - such as PTON, CMG, and XYZ. They all trapped money away until I just gave up and ate the loss. It’s OK to buy and hold stocks - but be careful on exposure. For me - it’s all “extra money” - rather than buy lunch or that item on Amazon - I use that money for stocks. However - all my weekly/monthly automated investments are ETFs. If I can squeeze in stocks - great - sometimes it doesn’t work that way.
Stock XYZ IPOs and I buy a share for $100, then sell it to you a year later for $1000, next year you sell it to Bob for $2000. Today the stock is trading at $3000. Who lost money? A zero sum game would be if the value of all stocks was fixed, but the value of the stock market, or an index, etc. is largely always going up and to the right.
Just read through the structure and flow. You'll notice it's a lot of words for not much substance. People also don't speak like this, have you not noticed many more of these type of "no one is doing XYZ" and "here is what everyone missed" posts on Reddit? Other examples" "The real signal", "here's what nobody is talking about", "what i actually found". There's so many phrases in here that are AI generated. The prompt seemed to he requested to remove em dashes and make it sound punchier. Hence the "2026, not 2027. 2028." One more point: the AI misread it, if no one was talking about this stuff, they wouldn't know this information. Everything pretty much that was said after the "here is what no one is talking about" has been extensively brought up on reddit or news. For example, the MRVL comment, I mean MRVL literally jumped 30% or something cause if it. How is that something no one is talking about? Same with the other announcements. It's shallow analysis, if you go to any AI tool and prompt it similarly, you'll get a similar analysis.
More people employed = more people with money to spend on XYZ = inflationary pressure. that's the orthodox view and the widely accepted belief which makes it true. you are retarded and need to open your mind to the idea you have things to learn.
XYZ is shifting their business model to leverage AI and sell graded Pokémon slabs.
I'd be careful. I use LLMs extensively, but I'd be hesitant to let them drive actual options decisions without significant oversight. Most of the value I've gotten has been from accelerating research rather than generating trades. They're great for summarizing filings, comparing earnings calls, stress-testing a thesis, or helping organize your thinking. Where people get into trouble is when they start asking ChatGPT or Claude whether they should sell a strangle or buy calls on XYZ... What I've been reading more about recently is the governance problem. As AI gets better, the challenge becomes less "can it generate ideas?' and more "how do you structure, supervise, validate, and audit AI-assisted research processes?" If you're just prompting Claude and trusting whatever comes back, you may be playing a more dangerous game than you think tbh. Ironically, I think the biggest opportunity right now may be in AI architecture and governance rather than trying to extract alpha directly from an LLM. There are even finance-specific programs starting to focus on that area (e.g. CFIA, Certified Financial Intelligence Analyst) etc. So it's a reflection that we may be opening a pandora's box we don't know how to deal with yet. For now, I'd trust AI to help me analyze an options trade. I wouldn't trust it to decide whether to put the trade on.
I’ve long envisioned a speech to XYZ system, but screens still play a role in this. The benefit of this tech is that the user is no longer locked into a static task. The user’s attention and actions are no longer hijacked by these tasks. We can multitask or at least be more mobile or multifaceted while accomplishing tasks. Again, there still needs to be a visual element to this and I don’t ever see that going away
Poors dont contribute fuck all in comparison to the retards with actual money investing in the concept of XYZ, economics since covid basically make the normal consumer a footnote I doubt we will see consumer staples perform well anytime soon
Good run on AMD so far but others not panning out so far like my fiverr and XYZ and PayPal stock . Those fucking suck it. But ill just hold and hope to even out in the end
Are you selling your AMD or holding on to It? Also curious about $XYZ and what you plan to do with it? - Garbage stock and I have as well.
Your argument wasn’t “if it stays a net buyer then XYZ” Your entire post before this was “it WILL be a net buyer” how do you know this will be the future? Obviously if it remains a net buyer it’s fine. Obviously if it goes bad and liquidates it’s not fine. Nobody knows what the future holds though and that is why the price on these options for calls AND puts are crazy expensive. Your conviction is weird. Your post here reeks of chat gpt btw
Why is no one talking about HPE, cybersecurity like Palo or XYZ or FIG? Like these are sake of the easiest plays and I feel like the only one one in them
XYZ and FIG and are about to take off
XYZ been trading flat for 4 years. What a pos
I think it's important to remember that when the stock market's value goes up by $1 trillion, it doesnt actually mean that $1 trillion got pumped into the stock market. Let's use a single company as an example. Say XYZ corp has 1 million shares that are quoted at $1. That comes out to a $1 million market cap. (You may need a calculator for this 😄 ) Now say someone comes along and buys a single share of XYZ corp for $2. That single trade will change the quoted price from $1 to $2. So now XYZ corp is worth $2 million. So even though only an additional dollar was pumped into the stock, the market cap went up by $1 million. This is an extreme example to illustrate how the stock market works. Let's use a more realistic example. Say MSFT has 7.43 billion shares outstanding. But their average trading volume is only about 33 million. Today's volume was higher, about 47 million shares. So on any given day, less that 0.5% of shares actually change hands. But that 0.5% is wagging the dog, so to speak. Today's closing price of 426.99 is a decent proxy for what ppl were willing to pay for through out the day. The price started at $413.09. That's a $13.90 price increase. Over 7.43 billion shares, the market cap went up $103 billion (7.43B shares x $13.90) . But only about $653 million actually changed hands. (47m shares x $13.90) Does this make sense? So there's about a 200:1 amplification effect. So when the market goes up by $1 trillion, it's really just from about $5 billion in new money. If my math is correct.
I love that these „due diligences“ never ever include the most important metric of investing: value. They always only talk about the next big thing, but completely ignore if the market cap is 500mn, 5bn or 5 trillion. Yeah, noone doubts it is important and a bottleneck, but that does not generate infinite 100% a month. But you can never know if you say every month „demand is still high for XYZ“ without taking into account value. If you would translate into a lemonade shop everyone would understand. Lemonade stand makes 100k a year, you would pay half a million for it. Demand rises, it can make 150k next year or even 200k in 2030, you might even pay a million or more for it. For 22 Million everyone would understand it is a horrible investment, that thing will never make your money back even when lemonade stays en vogue and is the drink to go. Currently there is many of such lemonade stands trading for dozens of millions. There is currently endless of absolute shitstain companies (and some of them will succeed) without revenues and 50-100 p/e ratios and while some will sustain, Most will not.
Some of these software companies are really cheap. Sure some may go to zero due to AI, but I’m confident that others will effectively utilize AI to bolster their product offering. In 10 years people will look back and say “man I can’t believe XYZ stock was so cheap” Which stocks? I’m not sure. But hey if you pick 4 and even 1 does well it’ll prob be worth it.
Sounds awesome until you remember that liquidity will be terrible and spreads will be savage at 7:30am. As for the asset class, I have traded PLTR and NVDA perps 24/7 on market XYZ, or simply placed premarket limit orders via any big broker.
It’s amazing how many people don’t understand this. XYZ rose 30% before earnings but they haven’t released earnings yet! Why it go uP? 🤪
Theta and IV aren't bugs, they're literal cost of convexity. You're paying rent for asymmetric upside. Perps sidestep that entirely, you get leverage without time decay eating you. I traded stock perps through markets XYZ when I wanted directional exposure without expiration pressure. Funding rates replace theta basically
The trader has 10K in cash, buys 200 XYZ for 20K. He now has a margin loan of 10K. Assume the maintenance margin is 30% for XYZ, so XYZ will have 14 K in buying power (BP). But he has a loan of 10 K, so the account will have a net BP of 4K. Assume he is approved to sell naked puts. Each 100 put will require around 1.5K in BP, so he can sell 2 puts. (Brokers may require more or less BP.) Therefore, he has enough BP to sell the puts but he does not have the BP to meet an assignment. (His broker may liquidate his puts on expiration day if they may expire ITM.) The premium from the put may reduce his loan (again depends on the broker.)
Most brokers give you an options buying power, and a stock buying power. Deposit: $10,000 Options buying power: $10,000 Stock buying power: $20,000 >Now, let's say that our trader sold 2 100 XYZ puts for $200 each. Stop right there. If you have $10,000 in the account, the broker is only going to let you sell 1 put at $100 strike. It’s going to subtract the full cost of the cash secured put from your options buying power, which is at $10,000. You now have $10,200 in cash with $200 buying power for options and $400 for stock. If you use above $200 for stock you start a margin loan and pay interest.
At some point in 2021, fintechs were all the rage. PYPL and SQ (now XYZ) reqched $300, AFRM was $170, even shitcos like UPST reached $400. Fin media was foaming at the mouth for the great future that awaits. Analysts were coming out with upgrades and new PTs every week. The future was fintech, some even doubted banks and Visa/Mastercard would survive. This what awaits these sham and endlessly pumped quantum and space companies.
Hyperliquid is reporting a \~0.5% jump on nasdaq 100. [https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/xyz:XYZ100](https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade/xyz:XYZ100) Not a ton of volume tho... only \~35mil traded in the last hour
Basically what was said below by /u/safemargins. They don't "front load" trades on information - but are able to react faster than anyone literally not in the middle of it and get ALL the information. Walk out in the middle of the night and see a light frost in your backyard - you know thats going to affect the harvest and quality. They see all the industry crop reports (which are available to public with work) and all the distilled information from them - so while I would need to search out individual countries and growing regions (or even specific farms) within that country they have all he information ready to go. And as part of their job they write global crop summaries for people like me. Finally, they are at trade shows, meetings, whatnot. They hear rumors, see who is meeting with who, hear what large sourcing requests are out there, etc... "Oh, I heard XYZ company is trying to launch a new natural juice line and is talking to ABC. " These are just some of the things that immediately came to mind and I've witnessed myself. I'm sure there are a lot of other ways it goes thru legally.
Less volatility and lower potential drawdowns in bad market conditions. Possibly more current income from dividends. Also for dividend payers, a certain yield % will often put a floor under the price. Stock XYZ, everybody recognizes it as a solid company with steady earnings. If it, or its sector is out of favor at the moment, when the price goes down enough so that the div yield is 5% (or whatever), buyers will step in.
Yep. It doesn't take $100 billion to move stock XYZ from $100 a share to $200 a share. It takes $200.
It's possible that what you're saying is right but that the purchasing power of your portfolio still decreases. Maybe $100 in XYZ goes to $500 in a few years but what good will it do if $500 isn't enough to buy you a single pizza?
Much of it for me is TA, Option Flows, and previous moves ( I am speaking specifically on a play during earnings season). Which I'll use as an example here. 1st thing I do is look at the Implied Move/Volatility ( IV). Then from there , I'll determine the strikes (ex. If XYZ IV is $10%, then write down the upper and lower ranges). Once I have those I'll start to calculate my Max Gains and Max Loss for my spreads. It's all math, not difficult to calculate even for a retard like myself. Then I see how much it would cost on various strikes and spreads. If the IV is more than 10%, then I'll spend the $$ for both Call Spreads and Put Spreads to hedge if I'm wrong. Again, I'm purely speaking for an earnings play where there's a definitive (binary)event that will play out. With normal non event plays, I'll do the same exercise and usually don't spend the extra money to hedge. To conclude: just work out the math and put on the trades, that's how I've learned throughout the years. There's really no hard formula unless you're at a quant firm (Jane Street) and have the tools to run simulations. Delta traders have these tools and they print money all day for their prop desk.
Ideally, if you're able to get approved for "LEVEL 3" Option Trading, that would help you offset the cost of your long leg. Ex. Long 10 Calls of XYZ vs. Short 20 Calls of XYZ That help reduce the long $$, you'll be partially naked but you'll still Long and just manage your position accordingly. Just know it may require more capital to get LEVEL 3 depending on your brokerage.
The war and insane leadership. That being said, I think people are still stuck in the traditional stock market mindset. Stock XYZ gained 20%, time to take profits. They are failing to see that tech hardware is in such demand that earnings are growing at crazy rates. No one knows what’s going on, I’m just riding the wave. Equal chances it’s a bubble or the next Industrial Revolution. I’m not sitting out, if AI capex stops the US economy and stock market will crash and it won’t matter what sector you are in.
True about the media, but it’s worth noting those gains are largely just routine price action and the only real “newsworthy” event tied to them are usually earnings reports which a good 70%+ of Americans could probably barely describe in function - if at all. Market drops (though not always) are usually an aftershock of a larger political or economic event that is in itself a news story. Which is why we often hear “The DOW drop 2 points after “XYZ” was reported.” I’d also argue that people that consume traditional well reported media do get plenty of market reports and individual sector/company coverage, but the number of people who actively seek out and consume that coverage is now minuscule.
\> I debated replying, because I didn't want to make you feel bad, but honestly this simply means that you're not good at what you do. That's the harsh truth. I strongly disagree - it means that I've gotten good with the tools. Writing code out by hand has always been the tedious part of the job (taking 100x longer than the logic / planning part). The design patterns chosen, approach to take, fault tolerance of the system, etc have always been more important. Think - the engineering manager / organizing 10 engineers vs the guy implementing it. I've worked at both Google & Microsoft and was on my schools competitive programming team. I currently work build ULL HFT systems - often considered an incredibly difficult part of software. \--- Look at the agents and what they are capable of. If you remember last month there was a giant fuss about just how good they are at finding vulnerabilities (see: mythos chatter). That's an insanely powerful tool if used correctly. It means that the programs can now find vulnerabilities / bugs in your program better than most people. So... use it for that. \> But I suspect you won't be offended by any of this anyway, because the people like yourself who have drunk the kool-aid on AI generated code never seem to mind. I guess if you did mind, you wouldn't be in this position in the first place. The position of seeing the AI tools as supernaturally brilliant, rather than seeing yourself as inadequate at what you do. Not offended at all. I'm noticing a huge divide among my peers. Those that can critically think and utilize the tools are excelling. Those who cannot are getting left behind. \> I.e. Can Claude generate code *faster* than people? Sure. But it goes back to what other people have been telling you, that a higher rate of lines of code being generated is not a good thing Then tell it to reduce / collapse / optimize it. As I mentioned I'm using it for ULL HFT right now. We measure every nanosecond / cpu operation. They're among the most efficient trading systems in the world. It can do that too! You don't need to do it by hand. Like all engineering. Make it work, make it clean, make it fast. Do that in a (3) step process. So... 3 different agents. Each one better at its individual task than a person is. \> the amount of context that can be handled at once is still limited, EXACTLY! So - you need to deal with it / work around the constraints. Just like working on a team - there may be team XYZ managing feature ABC. I don't know anything about it, I just trust that team is implementing the feature correctly. That's all the context I need about it, I don't need to know how it was implemented, etc. That's the same way current orgs work. So - use the agents in the same way. Get them to blindly trust the API and believe that it is correct. Then - get it to investigate the data to ensure it matches what it should. If it breaks - then get another agent to investigate the feature. This is the same thing as going to the other team and saying "hey, your stuff is broken. Please fix it". Except now that step can be done instantly / via agents. \> If you just have agents pumping 5000 lines of code per day into projects, that aren't even being checked by anyone (that's what you, a human with 20 years of experience, is supposed to be for) The experience is for knowing how to approach problems / design systems. I know that there are common design patterns / ins&outs of various languages / hardware, problems to be solved, etc. I know how I approach them - so I get a set of agents to do the same. They're at the point that individually they're better at any given task than people BUT they don't understand the managing part very well (really at all). So - you need to do that for them / direct them to that. Tell them "hey - implement it. Step 1. Then (Step 2) - clean it up. Step 3 - Tests everywhere. Step 4 - optimization path. Step 5 - security review. Etc. You'll get 5 different agents spun up for that task - each performing at superhuman levels. If you don't tell it to do steps 2, 3, 4 & 5 - that's how you get spaghetti.
There’s prob over a million stories like this. On the other side of it are the millions of times where someone went heavy into XYZ stock that did nothing or tanked, but you never hear about those.