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Your statement starts with an XYZ comparison lmao. You ran this through an LLM and then told it to “sound human”. You also didn’t hyphen self-identifying but hyphened every single compound adjective above. Nice try.
You might be on to something. I mainly dislike Windows and Microsoft software just because _I have to click through so much shit_. Every time I open up M365 admin, it gives me 3 popups with tips. When you open teams, there's like 2 popups you have to click away. Outlook, the same. Copilot? Since a few weeks it keeps throwing this super annoying popup when you start typing. I'm clicking myself in to a hernia just so I can browse the web. (4! 4 fucking questions now on first time Edge start). It drives people mad around me in IT. Yes yes, I know about feature XYZ, I was asked this **yesterday** already.
I keep seeing people say the dxb housing market is down XYZ % but almost all of it is in the mega high priced properties (~$20m+). I read all this talk and thought I'd get a decent deal on a $2-3m property and pretty much no reductions or increase in availability. I still wouldn't buy anything off plan ever after 2008/9.
To the people that always went "aw man I wish could have bought MSFT at XYZ price," your wish will soon be granted.
I love how theres dozens of posts about how XYZ stock is down the the technical analysis behind it. Hey retards there’s a war on, people took profit and are waiting until Trump says something stupid again before going back in. I can’t stand these reactionary “analysis” posts that completely ignore the elephant in the room.
Probably the best methodology post on WSB in a while. If you have a GitHub for this, I'd genuinely love to contribute. Happy to send patches. Two ideas for Part 3: Event based alpha - You already say macro/event calls need a different framework. Easy way to do it: tag each call with the nearest event (FOMC, earnings, election, wars), then score returns over a tight window like T-2 to T+5 instead of rolling 30/60/90d. "Hedge into election week" or "buy XYZ into earnings" or "buy this ETF during the war" should live in its own scoring lane. Confidence/Clarity based scoring-- Since your biggest limitation is noisy extraction on hedged writing. Fix: score each call by hedge-word density ("could," "may," "remains constructive"), bucket into high/low clarity, compare alphas. I’d score each call on a simple rubric: exact ticker named, explicit direction, clear time frame, concrete trigger, and low hedge-word density. Then bucket calls into high vs low clarity and compare alpha. Something like: high clarity calls show +4.1% 60d alpha, low clarity show -0.6%. Tells you if the edge is real or just the parser reading clean writing more accurately. "Buy NVDA into earnings" and "we remain constructive long term" should not be scored the same way.
INTC is really due for one of those “XYZ Company might possibly consider maybe investing in Intel or work with them in some capacity potentially” stories
The thing you're missing is that Trump is an actual moron suffering from dementia. > How do they know what the cause was? They don't. The fact that you think they do is completely bonkers. I've literally seen headlines changed on the same article from "Markets rise on XYZ..." to "Markets decline on XYZ..." and the only thing they change is the article title and the numbers.
“We’re sorry, Mr. and Mrs. XYZ, your home has been selected for reduced power consumption so our AI algorithms can continue functioning at full capacity. Please turn your A/C up by 5 degrees and do not turn any lights on for 24 hours. Otherwise, we will notify your power company who may administer steep fines for not complying with this request. Thank you for your cooperation!”
Metals are speculative assets based around nonsense and religion. The idea that “omg semiconductors need metal so SLV should go up 5000%” is retarded. Japan and China will liquidate gld and slv holdings until the strait is reopened, because having cash is way more important when you need to buy food or fill up your car. There’s no “it’s supposed to be XYZ”. If you went to any dealer and tried to sell GLD/SLV pretty much anywhere in the world at spot nobody would accept it. Kind of a sign that they’re beyond overextended no?
I put my money on he tries to placate the markets by saying Iran agrees to XYZ and we are no longer going to bomb their infrastructure. If Iran was smart they would burn all their oil down to the ground before Trump takes it by force. I mean honestly it’s about oil. He thought Iranians would just roll over like Venezuela. I think he underestimated them and now doesn’t know what to do because his temper tantrums are not working.
"my stock is different, during a recession it won't go down because they won't stop buying <XYZ>!!!" Enjoy -20%.
I'm a Boglehead too for most of my portfolio, but I've been pretty successful with my gambling account. If you believe in the efficient market hypothesis, then a passive index fund is the best investment because all available information is already priced into the market. But that applies to all other securities too including stocks and options. You're bearing more "uncompensated" risk by holding a single stock, but a 1% chance of making $100 is mathematically equal to a 10% chance of making $10 or a 100% chance of making $1. If you have some edge where you get some valuable new information first, you can make a lot of money by being the first person to bring it to market. The same logic applies to day trading. Everyone has book learning. Algos price everything perfectly with all available information. But if some high school knucklehead idiot is the first to figure out that Monster energy drinks taste great, they can make a fortune. That's something that algos, AI, and pretentious Wall Street types who don't drink trashy gas station energy drinks can't figure out. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/17/monster-energy-drink-stock-is-best-performer-of-the-last-30-years.html An A- student in microeconomics might try to risk competing against the A+ students at macroeonomic trading and they'll get killed. But an F student is more likely to be wise enough to stay in their lane. Mastering a niche has been the main way species have survived for billions of years. Your wife shouldn't tell her student that they *can't* succeed because it's fundamentally not true. She should teach them to be humble and recognize when they have an advantage and when they don't. Passive index investing is the optimal investment when you have no additional information over the rest of the market. It's silly if you have material inside information that XYZ stock missed earnings and is worth significantly less than the market knows. It's illegal to trade on that kind of information so every trader's edge is right at the border between what only they know and what everybody else knows. Passive investing rewards humility and patience. Active investing rewards learning new information first and acting decisively when an opportunity arrives. There's a pendulum that swings between active and passive investing that keeps these two concepts in line. If everyone is a passive investor, securities in the index will be mispriced. If everyone is active, there's too much competition to generate alpha. This pushes investors one way or another and it's self correcting. Ultimately, that student will figure out what to do on their own. If they're successful at trading they'll keep doing it. If they're humble enough to recognize their own limitations, they'll keep their gains. If they aren't, they'll lose their shirt. As long as they know passive index investing is available, they'll eventually figure out how to do it. If you want to speed this process up, tell them that evil Wall Street firms are scamming them with fees and spreads. Also, billionaire market makers are spying on them and trading against them Passive index investing is the way to keep your own returns and coast off of Wall Street's stock analysis work for free. That's how Jack Bogle persuaded everyone a few decades ago and his argument is even more relevant today than in the past.
The time to buy TOST has long since passed. They were a good play right before they went into the black. Eg late in 2023 around $15 to $20/share. Now it trades at P/E 51 (!) SquareUp (Block): XYZ trades at P/E 28. The core part of that business is payment processing. Owners make the decisions about which platform to use and owners understand what the pay for processing much better than barriers to exit / switching. A dicey time to play restaurant POS stocks. I sold TOST in 2024 and bought MO. If they can get a product on track to compete with Zyn their stock will go even higher. If not, it stays in a slow climb while paying 8% divs
Anyone remember back in the GWOT days when Bush would regularly announce killing the top Al Qaeda deputy in XYZ country? It was always some random guy nobody had ever heard of. Meanwhile, the target everyone cared about was just chilling in his mansion with his porn and video games. Trump and Israel have taken that vibe to the extreme. They can’t kill the Supreme Leader or reopen the Strait of Hormuz. So they’re just bombing random people and things, then trying to spin it as a big success. It’s always timed to hit the morning newspapers, but markets fade as traders digest the information.
if you (a retail investor) authorize a fund manager to use your money to mirror a known index then you would expect your money to be invested in whatever is included in that index. I don’t see it as a 1) wealth transfer 2) from passive investors to SpaceX insiders. First of all, in theory, no net wealth is being transferred. What’s occurring is an exchange of risk profiles. Assuming the stock is being purchased by the fund at a more-or-less market price, the two items (dollars and equity) are assumed to be of equal value in that moment. Thus, no wealth is being transferred. What is being exchanged, fundamentally, are the risks borne by both parties, as well as the benefits. Insiders who have tons of equity may be seeking an opportunity to diversify and investors may be seeking a chance to cash in on speculative future stock appreciation. Secondly, I’d argue that when a fund sells shares of XYZ Corp to make room for a certain number of SpaceX shares, the exchange is really happening between those who buy the XYZ shares from the fund and those who are selling the SpaceX shares for dollars. The passive investor still has his money invested exactly where he wanted it - in an index of the 500 largest corporations in the US. Nothing has changed there.
Also LLMs have become lazy. They say do you want me to check the timing for real? No, just saying howdy when I actually typed what time does my nearest XYZ store close I think they just served cached content first to save compute and do real work only when prompted to
Everything I say is honest and I'd be the first to say yes to a public debate of anyone who feels I've unfairly criticized them. I spend most of my waking hours trying to "un-fancy" the language. I don't want to use jargon to obfuscate- in fact, I often take down people publicly who do that, because I can see right through it. Whatever job you do, you have deep memory of all its nuance. It's no different for me, I was a market maker for my whole adult life. the things that are complex or jargon, are just intuitive to me because I engaged with them nonstop 24/7 forever- anyone else would have the same outcome. And you must be confusing my commentary with someone else. I remind people even in our promotional material, our onboarding material, in my tweets etc- that we have a probabilistic edge because we have modeled buying and selling which must be done by a large cohort. The extent to which that determines outcomes depends, like any other system, on our cohort's relative contribution to the order flow any given day. There is no way to say "because dealers hold XYZ we will certainly land at 123" - you or I could make a trade ourselves and disrupt the state of things, yielding a different outcome. Foolish to assume otherwise.
Umm... So, why would U be a long-term investor in companies that lose money, and don't pay dividends? A simple criterion for long term investments should be that the company is profitable, and consistently makes money, and the company pays dividends. Companies that aren't profitable and don't pay dividends should be avoided for long term investing. And U should also reinvest your dividends in order to put the "Magic of Compounding" to work for U. So, U are burning money just for fun? Sure, its good to have separate accounts for short term trading and long-term investing, but U shouldn't just be throwing your money away for fun. Old Warren Buffett had simple rules for investing, Rule 1 don't lose money, Rule 2 never forget Rule number 1. And for your short-term trades, U should always have a simple trading plan, before U enter the trade. Here is an example... # Pre‑Trade Checklist For Short‑Term Stock Trades Here is a simple, repeatable pre‑trade checklist for short‑term stock trades (long only) using Moving Averages, RSI, and MACD — follow the steps below before entering any trade. Keep position size small, set a clear stop loss, and only trade when at least two indicators agree. **Quick guide** * **Timeframe:** This checklist can be used on any timeframe from 5‑minutes, 60‑minutes, or daily charts for short‑term trades. * **The Goal:** Buy stocks that are clearly moving up, and then sell them when they start to slow down. * **Indicators:** Moving Averages (MA), Relative Strength Index (RSI), MACD. * ***Rule of thumb:*** Enter only when 2 of 3 indicators confirm the same direction. **Pre‑Trade Checklist for Long Only Positions** **1. Trend check with Moving Averages** \- Confirm stock price is above the 20‑period EMA, and the 20 EMA is above the 50 EMA. If true, the trend is bullish. If the stock price is not above the 20‑period EMA, and if the 20 EMA is not above the 50 EMA do not go long or buy. **2. Momentum check with RSI** \- RSI rising above 40 and below 70 supports a healthy uptrend. The RSI is between 40 and 60 and going up. Avoid going long and buying a stock if the RSI is already above 70 (overbought). **3. Confirmation with MACD** \- MACD line crossing above the signal line, or MACD and MACD histogram are both rising, which confirms bullish momentum. **4. Entry, Stop, Target:** * **Entry:** Enter position on a stock price pullback to the 20 EMA, when MACD indicator is rising. * **Stop loss:** Put a stop loss order in below recent swing low. * **Target:** Look for 3 to 1 risk/reward opportunities. Example if stock XYZ is trading at $10, and its previous swing low was $9, you place your stop loss order at$ 8.99, and your upside price target price is $13. So, you are risking $1 dollar in order to make 3 dollars. **5. Volume check** \- Volume should be rising higher on the move to confirms entry. Declining or decreasing low volume is signal of weakness or indecision by investors. Stocks going up higher on low volume is a short-term bearish signal.
So funny, my XYZ puts I got after it jumped up now up 50% 😎
Anyone see XYZ tanking into either a bounce or drop into that huge gape
When you have this entire sub screaming *XYZ are ded* you inverse.
Regards: “I invested in XYZ company because it it progressive” XYZ company: supports the heritage foundation because corporations don’t give a fuck about politićs. Moral investors are the biggest clowns of them all.
They Keep putting hype or ai stocks in, Past picks have been lot of high beta stocks that have been tanking lately. TTD, XYZ, APP, COIN, CVNA, HOOD. All down big since addition
Can you tell me how you distinguish the S&P movement whether it is retail or institutional money? I hear that all the time everywhere from Reddit to on TV to independent financial advisors. The oy say oh it’s retail is doing this retail is doing that or the smart money is doing this a smart doing that. They don’t have a separate level 1,2,3 that flags each trade or volume as to whether it was retail or institutional. Every time I hear “retail traders are doing an XYZ and that’s why the markets doing ABC” I’m thinking oh yeah this person is just making stuff up because they don’t know either.
Who can be surprised by these job numbers? Every other headline has been about XYZ tech company cutting thousands of jobs, that doesn't even include the thousands of small businesses that have been hampered ever since liberation day. Everyone you hear from looking for a job says it's more painful than walking a mile on broken glass barefoot. The only silver lining it that this gives Warsh and Trump justification to push for rate cuts, but even that cope is challenged by the reality of higher energy prices for as long as the war in Iran lasts for. It's going to be an ugly month.
It was just an example honestly i originally wanted to use some of my local companies or XYZ but I decided using actual company names would be easier for the example. And your right in todays age unless a company does active buy backs/sell shares or issues new ones the money we put in via stocks does not magically reach their balance sheet. Shares just give you the right to technically influence company decisions but with the amount the average person holds its useless. Which should raise some questions like wait what does actually owning shares give me and wouldn't that money better serve me by starting my own buisness.
getting "XYZ stock is down 5%" alerts every fucking minute
If these damn XYZ 62p hit Ill grow a stupid ass beard like Dorsey
Still sideways from 3m ago, you good. And a lot of things underpriced right now. Maybe dont buy SPY, but discounted software companies maybe? Or international etfs thay have been doing great but took a hit recently? Plenty out there to buy. Try B, ZTS, XYZ, MU, Brazil or Mexico etf, VEU + IEMG + IDEV...
Did a Buy-Write in NVDA at 175 & 185, wrote puts on BRKB and GOOG, let short puts run for the boomer port. In the regarded port, closed short dated long calls on POET, MSTR & ACHR, write short calls on TSLR (following big guy’s lead to bring it down,) closed short calls on XYZ (didn’t want to hedge,) bought some speculative crap and set a bunch of GTCs bc I’m in meetings all week (too many to list.)
“Could” doing a lot of the heavy lifting I think every sub should auto ban any article with a headline like “What XYZ COULD mean for XYZ” or “XYZ COULD XYZ according to this “expert”.”
Every Public CEO just got an idea XYZ, surges over +20% after announcing plans to cut over 40% of their workforce.
Intended to buy a XYZ $50C today's morning, but fat fingered and naked shorted it. Typical wsb style.
Simplified answer here. Yeah CC is covered calls. You need to own 100 shares of the underlying stock to sell 1 CC. Your shares will be held as collateral until expiration, CC buyback, or assignment. Buy 100 shares of company XYZ at $50. Figure out a price you would be okay with selling those shares at, say $55 for 10% gain. Sell CCs at the $55 strike at whatever expiration you think fits your stock, the longer out the date the higher the premium you will receive but also the more time the underlying has to reach your strike for assignment. Think it's going up 10% in the next month? Sell the $55 strike call option expiring in a month to pocket the premium and hopefully also get assigned and pocket a 10% return. Typically don't sell calls on a stock you don't want to sell because eventually you will be assigned. Though if you are wheeling that doesn't matter as much because as soon as you get assigned you pick an entry price you wouldn't mind getting back in and you sell CSPs (cash secured puts) at the price you would like to buy back in at. Want to re-enter XYZ at $50 where you originally bought it for? Sell CSPs at $50 strike, pocket premium and if it closes below your strike at expiration you'll get assigned the shares and you can start selling calls again. Main two risks: selling CCs locks your shares in collateral so on a sudden drawdown of share price and you're caught in it, no stop losses you would need to buy to close your CC and then sell your shares to get out. However the CC acts as a bit of a hedge because you'll profit on it as the share price decreases. Selling CSP can be risky on a sudden downturn because company XYZ might tank to $30 and you're locked into buying at $50. On this example it's more devastating than the CC because you can't buy back your CSP without incurring a loss if it blows past your strike. You also limit upside with CCs but that's why you pick a strike you would be happy to sell at.
Can you do one help and add my Substack to the list. I’m pretty sure I’ll be in top 3 because some of them blew up recently: NBIS, RKT, XYZ. RIOT, LUNR(about to blew). May be if you track my Reddit, it’ll be even better. I posted about NBIS around 40’s(though I got in at 20’s, didn’t had Substack during that time lol). Link: https://substack.com/@getdeepsignal?r=57i6ns&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=profile&shareImageVariant=image
Short XYZ, long some cheap call LEAPS for bottom fishing (Rezolve,) bc I am regarded. Will check in during the hour of power/sour.
XYZ is up 16 percent because they are laying off half their workforce… makes total sense. Cost savings.. Jack Dorsey should take a pay cut to save those people’s jobs.
XYZ finishes flat today. Don't know what that means but that's what will happen.
My point is most people simply sell options before earnings to exploit the vol crush. This works the majority of the time. But when it doesn't, on average the losses exceed the profits. I hope no one was short XYZ going into yesterday's earnings...
Don't buy puts on things down already, buy puts on XYZ. I will be here next week for more tips.
Thinking of short calls on XYZ. Maybe straight up shorting. Don’t have time in life to dynamically hedge rn tho, so would be a gamble.
I sold all five of my shares of Block (XYZ) when I heard they are cutting 40% of the staff due to AI. Does that really matter? No, but I won't be investing in such evil companies.
MSFT giving up billions in marketcap after that XYZ layoffs announcement
I'm prone to whimsy but I decided that today's reaction to XYZ is going to be my answer. If Block continues to go up then bear market is incoming.
1) You can easily make the case that Block overhired and that Dorsey - while great at starting companies - isn't that fantastic at running them. See: https://www.vice.com/en/article/judge-affirms-jack-dorseys-right-to-make-objectively-terrible-business-decisions/ 2) Even if this is Square (I'm not calling it Block) specific, how many other companies look at this, see XYZ up 20% pre-market and start thinking about doing similar?
So XYZ is cutting 4000 positions or 40% of their staff. All replaced by AI. They are a profitable company. If this is an indication of things to come, then unemployment is gonna go through the roof. No one is prepared for this rate of change.
Damn, working why my XYZ shot up 23% AH…Jack laying off half the staff and using AI. Yikes…
Buying XYZ ITM puts 1-2 hours after open sounds like free money
In 2008 I was still working so I really wasn't that much involved with buying stocks as much and I can't remember much details, but as the market tanked that means as that happens my portfolio (if I did nothing) cash stays the same cashwise but the stock portion goes down. So it goes from 60/40 down to 55/45 to 50/40 to 50/50. So as it goes down I just buy more stocks to keep it at 60/40. And then as the stock market goes back up (and I did nothing) it goes from 60/40 to 65/35 etc, so I start selling stocks back to cash to keep it at 60/40. In 2020 (after waiting 12 years for the market to take the next dive) I decided to be more aggressive this time and bought more stock than needed as it was tanking and would get it closer maybe to 70/30 as the market was tanking. And as the market started going back up I didn't sell and let it get all the way up to 85/15 before I started selling. And kind of the really fun part here was I did this almost entirely by selling really aggressive covered calls until enough shares finally went away to get me back to 60/40. And yes, as the market tanked and I basically transferred cash to stock and my overall portfolio dropped in value 28% which is a lot, but the feeling is way different this time (compared to 2000 when I was 100% in the market) when during the pre-tanking time you are used to seeing 400 shares of ABC and 500 shares XYZ and then during the tanking you now you have 600 shares of ABC and 700 shares of XYZ and you know (at least you hope so) they will all eventually recover back to the pre-tank price and you will be way better off when the market finally fully recovers because you will have so many more shares than before.
This is such a bad take because XYZ made bad investments in weird crypto and web3 tech and is now facing the consequences, nothing related to AI
PYPL should take cue from XYZ and announce 70% layoffs. I am sure 99% of PYPL shareholders are under water.
I had a good run with my CCs for a few months until XYZ started trending down, then I sold.
XYZ stock breaks above the support level at 100…
I had no idea the CEO/founder of $XYZ was the old Twitter CEO
Why do we care about XYZ laying people off. Looking at their stock chart I'm surprised they can afford to employ anyone
until 1982 buybacks where illegal so yes you got the idea or save the cash , for "XYZ" down the road or put it into the business and your people or or or
A XYZ 33 billion company wiped out 80 billion of MSFT lol
XYZ just set a horrendous precedent. rewarding mass layoffs will only lead to more. get ready for a mass wave of "30%" and "40%" and "50%" headlines. really dark shit, self-fulfilling prophecy ass market
basically any stock that says they are going to try to save money rocketing (XYZ, NFLX)
Betting on NOTE, PRSO, and URG. Have dividend stocks like CEG (up $300 on that but wouldnt buy now), EXC, and other renewable power companies. Bought XYZ when it was over $100 so holding the bag on that one.
XYZ (Block) firing 40% of their workforce. Might be a new trend with SaaS going forward
Sorry, what company is XYZ?
XYZ - bullish on firing useless workers. This will be a trend in the software industry. Wait, I'm gonna get fired?
Isn't AI taking jobs the whole point? Smh, no one knows what they want anymore. XYZ should be the exact use case
40% of $XYZ employees laid off and the result is a stock that soars +25%. His shareholder letter is very notable: “Intelligence tools have changed what it means to build and run a company"
Guess who bought 5 shares of XYZ yesterday.
So basically XYZ crashed the market ah but pumped itself? 5D chess shit lol
These saas companies get paid per user. Imagine if more companies follow XYZ.
XYZ firing all those people gonna cause SAAS to tank again tommorow?
If XYZ is slashing 40% of its workers, shouldn’t it be up 40%?
XYZ laying off 40% of its workforce ? is it true ?
Guys I really messed up not going full regard into $XYZ. Jack Dorsey, please forgive me i forgot you were my daddy
omg, XYZ up 26% and I'm still underwater on it. :D
Yeah and XYZ. Maybe we'll get a sweet fintech rally
My apologies for being unclear about certain points. When saying maximize my profits, I do not mean as a one off, but in expectation across repeated bets many times, so this should include things like risk-of-ruin and downside risk. I am not interested in something that pays 10X 1% of the time and 0X 99% of the time. My goal is not to be right all the time (impossible), but to be better than random, which I believe I am based on the numbers. I understand that I need to do a confidence interval to get a range of values for my estimator, but for the purposes of example, say that it is 72% right. In the market, the event only happens 58% of the time at random, meaning I have a 14% edge, which is not nothing. For an easier example, if you could guess a coin flip 64% of the time correctly, you would be bathing in cash because it is 50%-50% H/T. I am wondering what methods are best for going long on volatility. I have seen conflicting advice on straddles vs strangles. Leaning towards strangles mostly due to them being cheaper, but I understand that they come with greater risks of complete position devaluation. As for the 5 DTE question, I am not testing DTE in the model. What the model is doing is saying that sometime in the next 5 trading days, XYZ is going to break through the IV expected move. So I am wondering if it is more efficient to use 5 DTE since that is my window for the expected move, knowing the downside is when I am wrong the return is -100% or should I look at doing longer expiration options that expire beyond the 5 days where I have predicted the breakout because when I am wrong, I wouldn't be at -100% on my positions.
The fact that this isn't law already proves that there's a big club and we're not in it. Why is the bank acknowledging the stocks are worth $XYZ and the person acquires $XYZ in their pocket from the transaction, but is not taxed on $XYZ? The reason is because only the super wealthy can even qualify for SBLOCs. It's a tax scheme that we're banned from.
I’m hoping for Block $XYZ to drop on earnings so I can build a long term position
So are you saying you these deferred losses is on the options (as opposed to the stock itself). For example are you saying that with this example: On 3/1/2025 Sell To Open 1 XYZ Call 5/16/2025 at a $100 strike for $3,00/shr \------------------------------------ 5/15/2025 Stock XYZ goes up around $117 (and therefore your call is 4 strikes in the money) and you roll it Buy To Close 1 XYZ Call 5/16/2025 at a $100 strike for $17,00/shr ($14.00/shr loss) Sell To Open **1 XYZ Call 7/18/2025 at a $105 strike** for $15.00/shr \----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7/17/2025 Stock XYZ goes up around $127 (and therefore your call is 5 strikes in the money) and you roll it Buy To Close **1 XYZ Call 7/18/202 5 at a $105 strike** for $22,00/shr ($7.00/shr loss) Sell To Open 1 XYZ Call 11/21/2025 at a $110 strike for $20.00/shr \---------------- And the 1099 has $700 Disallowed loss on the**1 XYZ Call 7/18/202 5 at a $105 strike?** Are is it just with the stocks you are getting Disallowed Losses?
> the appropriate types of positions to be taking to maximize my profits Without any consideration for risk? I'm skeptical of goals that are only about reward, not about risk/reward. > Take XYZ that moves more than IV 58% of the time, when I predict it will move, I am right 72% of the time in the last 5 years of simulated backtests And how did you factor out luck? If random chance is also 72%, you're not doing better than chance. Even if 72% is better than chance, that's still 28% wrong, and if you lose more than you win (back to risk/reward) when you are wrong, the whole exercise is a net loss. If the thesis is that IV is discounted wrt (forecast) realized vol, a long straddle at the ATM strike makes the most sense. A straddle is just a degenerate strangle with maximized risk/reward. So as long as the risk is tolerable, a straddle is the way to go. If the risk of the straddle is not tolerable, a strangle is how you modulate the risk/reward until the risk is reduced to an acceptable level, at the cost of reducing reward from the theoretical max. However, losses are maximized with a straddle for the cases where the forecast is wrong, particularly when you overpay for IV and realized vol falls short, so you have to factor that into your expected value forecast. I think you answered your own question about DTE. If your prediction rate of 72% depends on 5 DTE, you don't have much choice. You backtested to get the 72% rate for 5 DTE, so what rate do you get when you backtest other DTE? In for a dime, in for a dollar, if you're betting on backtesting to validate this strat.
I am looking for some advice on the appropriate types of positions to be taking to maximize my profits. I have been utilizing Black-Scholes packages and calculations in Python to simulate positions, but I understand that reality is not going to align to this necessarily, and there are always infinite combinations to try. Using ATM IV, I can predict pretty accurately when certain assets will move more than their expected value based on that IV in the next 5 trading days, both from a theoretical and empirical measure. What I mean by that is I can see the number of days where it moves beyond the IV prediction, and I am more accurate than that. Take XYZ that moves more than IV 58% of the time, when I predict it will move, I am right 72% of the time in the last 5 years of simulated backtests. Note, that I am not predicting the move, just when it is going to be bigger than IV. My base question is how do I best monetize this? Things I have thought about: 1. Buying a delta-neutral strangle with 5 DTE based on the closest options that would be in the money at the IV move. (Ex: IV predicts a range of 95.6-109.4, then I buy the 96 Put and the 109 Call) 2. Buying a delta-neutral strangle with 5 DTE based on some lower magnitude of move than the IV. (Ex: IV predicts a range of 95.6-109.4, then I'll buy the 99 Put and the 106 Call). For this, I've been multiplying the expected move by some factor (say 0.75) and rounding the options as I would above. 3. Buying a delta-neutral straddle with 5 DTE. Some issues I have run into with these is the obvious problem of theta decay to worthless if the predicted move is wrong and/or takes the entire week to do something. Should I be looking at longer DTE options? The problem I see with that is that I am predicting based on a \~5 DTE model (For example, open market Monday price, does it move more than expected by Friday at close. Not predicting when or actual magnitude of move). So maybe options that expire the next Friday? Or multiple Fridays away?
**tldr: learn the greeks or stay a tourist. either way options don't care about your feelings.** i'm gonna be real with you. if you're trading options "for fun" then honestly do your thing. lose money however you want. no shade. but if you're out here trying to actually make this work? the greeks aren't optional. full stop. i see it constantly. dudes in the comments going "i don't need delta, i just read the chart." bro that's like a drummer saying they don't need to know time signatures. you're just banging randomly and calling it music. 🥁 the excuses are always the same too. "greeks are too complicated." "they don't actually help." "i've been profitable without them." cool, you've also been lucky. luck runs out. the greeks don't. and honestly? they're not even hard. people act like this is quantum physics. it's not. delta tells you direction exposure. gamma tells you how fast that exposure changes. theta is your daily holding cost. that's it. that's the core of it. here's where it actually matters though. say you're bullish on XYZ and think it rips within 5 days. the rookie move is buying the strike where you think price lands. every single time this is wrong. you're overpaying for a lottery ticket and theta is eating you alive while you wait. someone who actually understands the greeks? they're looking at the delta/gamma profile to find where they get maximum convexity — biggest bang for the move — while keeping theta bleed manageable. that's not some genius-level stuff. that's just reading the instruments in your car before you floor it. you wouldn't drive 200mph staring only through the windshield ignoring every gauge on the dashboard. so why are you trading options the same way? just learn them. seriously. a weekend of effort saves you thousands in dumb entries. keep banging till the vol drops 🥁📈
Anyone yoloing Block $XYZ earnings?
Average American here. I use it daily in my personal life. One great example was when my son had something break on his car. The tire basically fell off, but not all the way. We took a picture of it, fed it into ChatGPT and asked what it could be. Chat did its thing and told me exactly what the problem was and about how much it would cost to fix. It was spot on. Also, when I was in London last year and was trying to figure out their subway system, I couldn't really grasp the maps easily. I took a picture of the map that showed where we were and asked Chat how to get to the place we wanted to go. It told us exactly what to do ( Hop on train X, which will be showing up at platform Y every 30 minutes. To get to platform Y from here, simply go down these stairs and you'll see a sign pointing right. Once on the train, go down three stops to berryhavenburg plaza stop. Get off and walk to XYZ and get on this other train that comes by ever 15 minutes. Go down 4 stops. Get off the train, go up the stairs, turn left and walk straight until you see it). My wife and I were amazed at how well it worked and how helpful it was. Sure, we could have figured it out on our own, but this made the experience pretty much stress free. We use it all the time for traveling. These are just two of many many things my wife and I use it for all the time. Is it perfect? No, of course not. Has it made our lives noticeably better? Absolutely
There are a few clues that this comment might have been written by a Russian agitator: First, the username is 'adjective-noun' with a number, which means it's a randomly generated reddit username. This is most often seen on accounts created by bots or in large batches at once. Second, the comment is missing articles that are standard in English. The Russian language does not have articles (the, a, an) and Russians often leave them out of English sentences by mistake. In this case, it's unnatural to use "pushed by CIA" instead of "pushed by *the* CIA" and the fact that they fail to use it a second time in "they will follow CIA's script?" shows that it's not just a typo. Third, their argument makes very little sense. A lot of Russian (and Chinese) covert propoganda online takes the form of "who would really be dumb enough to believe XYZ?" and then offering a nonsense counter argument like this one did.