AGI

Retired_April_2025

I have the scenario. Just retired last year at 60. A couple of years prior to retirement I started selling stocks and lowered 401k contributions to accumulate enough cash to cover 4-5 years to have financial flexibility in case of a downturn and to minimize AGI at age 63-64 due to the Medicare 2 year look back. Also because of the cash I’m able to do Roth conversions from age 61-62 at a much lower tax rate. I will use the Roth funds eventually to self fund long term care instead of getting long term care insurance

International_Bee653

Do you think there are any paths toward AGI that isn't based on LLMs? If so then where can people invest?

caesar_7

\> Google will be the first to achieve AGI. LMAO

ShadyShroomz

> priced to more than perfection perfect with AI is that it replaces all human jobs and ushers an age of abundance like we have never seen before.. or we get AGI and cure all disease, aging, etc by something that is multiple times smarter than any human that has ever lived... and then all humans get to live forever.. its not being priced for "perfection", not even close. im not saying those things will happen, by the way, just saying that's the high end. low end the AI doesnt like us and decides it will kill all humans so it has more resources...

ReasonableBrother448

Experts i listen to are describing how AI is actually being fragmented into niche areas. Opposite of AGI. They can for example hold the data of regional banks and be fine tuned to their purposes. It is actually very descriptive of what humans do. We find niches, tune them to max with focused learned behaviour. It would not be surprising that before we blanket the earth with data centers, the parameter & latency limits forces to localize.

BrocoLeeOnReddit

Not on its own. It is possible to get true intelligence (and even consciousness) by slapping a lot (meaning billions) of dumb neurons together, that's called emergence. Your brain is a perfect example of that. Artificial neurons aren't less capable than biological ones, just way less energy efficient. The problem is how these neurons are organized, configured and trained. LLMs are trained only on words. They are fed huge datasets (e.g. the entire Internet), given an input and produce an output that is then tested and if the output doesn't satisfy what is expected, the model is tweaked. This repeated time and time again and can take millions of iterations until the results are consistently satisfactory enough. However, the entire "world" of these models consists only of words, they don't "understand" the meaning behind them. Or even more precise, they don't even "see" words, they just see a number representation of words or parts of words (tokens), which is btw. the reason they can't count the Rs in "strawberry". What they learn is how these tokens are semantically connected to each other and then predict the next word. Other models do similar things with images, audio or video and you can also connect them together or give them additional capabilities (agents). But they don't yet form a coherent single entity and lack what you would call "neuroplasticity" in a human. Once they are finished training, they stop "learning" and become static. They can "remember" things by writing summaries into a context file but they cannot adjust themselves any more on the fly because the training process is orders of magnitude slower than just using them. They are also strongly limited by the size of the context. At some point they just break down and start to hallucinate more and more because the number of tokens becomes too big for the model to handle. So in case you were wondering what e.g. ChatGPT actually does when you hit "send" on a message, it basically resends the entire conversation up to that point every time and runs it through the model. That is why after a long conversation it gets more and more stuff wrong. AI companies build bigger and bigger models trained on bigger and bigger datasets able to parse bigger and bigger contexts, but as long as there is no real understanding and reliable on-the-fly self-tweaking, LLMs might get better, but they will never achieve true AGI without additional fundamental breakthroughs.

ow191

How do those investors know that AGI will be based on Transformers architecture or more generally CUDA-like architecture? The chip is designed to facilitate parallel computation plus matrix mulitiplication. AGI must follow this trait? In addition, the chip in such AI center is outdated after 3 years... Just saying.

Krystarado

I wouldn’t be that sure. LLMs aren’t AGI, but saying they’ll never lead anywhere feels a bit final imo. a lot of progress is stacking on top of them.

meltbox

I think the key is simple building blocks lead to complex structures. LLMs may well be a building block of AGI but all signs point to there being other ones necessary for AGI. I’d never argue pattern recognition isn’t an aspect of human intelligence, it’s just not the only one.

meltbox

I mean it’s quite clear that the mechanism of DNA allows for unlimited scaling bound only by physics and biomechanics maybe. But ultimately physics of our world. Reasoning is a purely mathematical process as is being attempted in computers. For example evolution would be more akin to a stochastic walk across all possible sets of code. One of those sets can achieve AGI just like evolution eventually came up with intelligent life. We are just saying that LLMs are not in the set that leads to AGI. Not that AGI is impossible. Could we be wrong? Yeah sure, but the evidence we have right now is not pointing in that direction.

dukesb89

Nobody is achieving AGI. We're not even remotely close.

1-Dollar-Doge-Coins

IMO if it becomes good enough to sort of mimic AGI, that might be good enough as far as being a very productive tool that revolutionizes the world. I don't know why some people act like it's either AGI or bust.

Ok-Adeptness-5834

LLMs can solve pretty complicated math problems that maybe only 10,000 people in the world are really capable of doing, and even a few novel ones, so I don't know why that doesn't count as reasoning. You may argue that's brute force pattern recognition, but that's also sort of how I try to come up with math proofs. I'm not arguing they can come up with special relativity, but they can clearly apply known concepts in novel ways. My main point is - I don't understand why you're so confident that scaling things up won't result in novel new behavior. When we apply the same LLM algorithms to wikipedia, it doesn't work very well, but clearly something non linear happens when we scaled up to the entire internet, even though the underlying math behind it didn't change. That was also the point of my biology analogy. I don't think human brain and monkey brains are fundamentally that different (you can correct me if I'm wrong. I studied math and cs in college not biology). Afaict human brain just has more "neurons" or "connections". But at a certain point consciousness and AGI emerged. I don't see why that can't be true for some variation of LLMs.

lost_in_trepidation

I don't think Google has ever really cared about the LLM race. Demis Hassabis is still saying he doesn't think (something like) commercial LLMs should have been released until after AGI. Also LLMs are a bit of an innovator's dilemma for Google itself. It cannibalizes their cash cow. They probably think their long term strategy is avoid being too distracted by the chatbot race an instead take all the benefits if they're the first to AGI.

fudge_mokey

Not at all. But the basis of our thinking isn’t pattern matching. If you actually wanted to make an AGI, basing it off how a human does computations would be the most logical way to start. That’s not at all what any of the current models are doing.

Infurium

I happen to agree with you. They are all just making better forms of prediction machines, which in itself isn't a bad thing to be working on. AGI has become the Golden Fleece of tech, so they can't just stop using that name.

Ok-Adeptness-5834

\> proofs in regression, markov chains and linear algebra get there's a sort of upper limit to the reasoning capability's these things have. It's not at all obvious why there's an upper limit. A lot of the AI researchers are familiar with these fairly simple math concepts (since they use them to build it) and they do not agree with you. If you went back a million years, you would look at a monkey brain and go, well it's pretty impressive that they can do image recognition and some pattern matching, and even rudimentary problem solving, but 2 billion years of evolution clearly hit a ceiling. Scaling these neurons and proteins up is not going to lead to AGI or consciousness. These monkeys can't even count the number of "r's" in strawberry!

StatusSociety2196

It would but to be clear I'm not talking about LoRA layers or fine tuning, the base model would need to update specific weights while still running. The idea is that my Qwen 3.6 doesn't have an increasingly drole number of post training layers, the base model updates itself to become better at tasks, which isn't something that's doable in the real world. But yeah that would meet my definition of AGI. A phone agent updates itself after every phone call handled, an AI coding agent learns from each line of code it writes, etc.

Kepler___

A lot of people in statistics are very aware of this, only a certain sub-section of tech guys say the AGI thing but anyone in math/stats more familiar with proofs in regression, markov chains and linear algebra get there's a sort of upper limit to the reasoning capability's these things have. Now can Claude attach a bunch of skills to itself to the point where the difference doesn't matter and it can do most jobs anyway? Something like that unfortunately might be on the table. The point is though that this specific type of AI likely won't approach consciousness, singularity or anything like that on its own, but could represent a similar threat to the labor market anyway just by being a good enough mimic.

-vp-

RL **without** HF isn't something inherently impossible with an LLM / transformer achitecture though. If the model itself is able to self post-train and re-weight itself to "understand" new facts, handle novel tasks asked up them *reliably*, etc.would that meet your definition of AGI? It's something certainly possible with today's architecture albeit likely infeasible in terms of speed, cost, and accuracy and what frontier labs are trying to achieve.

Y0tsuya

Most investors and business leaders don't know that though. They think if you throw enough money at data centers we will get AGI.

Ok-Adeptness-5834

People said the same thing about chess bots 40 years ago. We have no idea what will or will not work for AGI. If some extra dimensional being took a look at our little brain with a bunch of proteins and neurons, their version of you would also go: "There's no way a bunch of chemical processes could achieve AGI. It's an over-glorified carbon based mammal."

StatusSociety2196

I'm not the guy you asked, but I'm of a similar opinion, with the main thing being "what do you define as AGI". LLMs are trained and then deployed, the weights are set at the end of training and that is a set statistical probability of outcomes moving forward. Updating knowledge and performance comes at the cost of running another training cycle. Training costs have definitely come down in time and cost but they're still the most significant part of an LLM. When i think of AGI, I think of human intelligence. If you tell me that blue whales are the largest animal to ever exist, I don't need to go through a training cycle to remember that fact, i just do, the weights in my brain automatically update to include that knowledge while I continue to perform tasks. An AGI to me is capable of self improvement iteratively instead of requiring training cycles to produce a new model better than the old one. It updates weights on the fly. From my perspective, LLMs are a shard/product/ export of an AGI system just like if you exported the consciousness of a random person on a random day and froze it. Many of the tools used to create LLMs will be used to create AGI but it won't be the same method.

fudge_mokey

> Google will be the first to achieve AGI. lol. none of the current AI implementations are remotely close to being an AGI. The current approaches are very useful, but will need to be completely reworked at a fundamental level to ever result in an AGI.

Ok_Buy9028

Lol, they’re not going to achieve AGI. Especially not with LLMs. A ventriloquist dummy becoming a real boy is more likely to occur than to get AGI from over-glorified chatbots. If you don’t understand how this stuff works, that’s a skill issue.

AntiqueProfessor5134

Basically agree with you, the chip makers will win mostly. I'm not sure AGI is even possible with purely LLMs, so we may be quite a ways away from that, and currently it seems likely that LLMs will be commoditized like you said, so it is unlikely that any specific LLM maker will have a commanding market lead. They are likely to still affect the general economy however, and decrease job requirements overall, but their profits are likely to be funneled towards the chip makers, whose products are more differentiated. So basically the whole system becomes a funnel concentrating wealth from the general economy into Nvdia and friends.

redditissocoolyoyo

It's 14 to 15% yes. Google will be the first to achieve AGI. Claude is one thing right now. An LLM. Google has a ton of things hardware and software. Chips. Data. DC. Content. Ads. A lot more than us commons would know.

-vp-

How can you "personally" be 100% sure? It's certainly a debated topic among AI lab researchers, but I think it's very hand-wavy to say LLMs will not lead to AGI... It's like me predicting the next wave of semiconductor advancements or LiPo battery capabilities.

BuzLightbeerOfBarCmd

Did you watch the announcement of the AGI chip? They played a reel of CEOs (including Jensen and the Broadcom CEO) congratulating Arm on producing its first in-house silicon. They also brought a Meta executive out on stage to talk about the partnership. I think these were obvious strategies to calm any concerns about Arm competing against their own customers. Looks like it worked for now. As for Meta, they stated they are trying to diversify their hardware. Ultimately whether they buy Graviton or AGI, Arm is getting a cut. AGI just lets them keep a larger share of the revenue.

DonaldPump1

* **Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness LP** recently disclosed a significant new position in the sector, acquiring 6,897,100 shares of Keel Infrastructure ($KEEL), reported 13F filing for Q4 2025. This move underscores a high-conviction bet from one of AI’s leading strategic thinkers that mission-critical infrastructure will be the primary value-capture layer of the AGI era. * [https://whalewisdom.com/filer/situational-awareness-lp](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/situational-awareness-lp)

DonaldPump1

* **Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness LP** recently disclosed a significant new position in the sector, acquiring 6,897,100 shares of Keel Infrastructure ($KEEL), reported 13F filing for Q4 2025. This move underscores a high-conviction bet from one of AI’s leading strategic thinkers that mission-critical infrastructure will be the primary value-capture layer of the AGI era. * [https://whalewisdom.com/filer/situational-awareness-lp](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/situational-awareness-lp)

bionicjoey

Personally I am 100% sure that LLM technology will not lead to AGI. It is not like it's the same kind of tech but just in its infancy, it's simply a completely different kind of tech. No amount of LLMs will ever lead to a true intelligence. It's just polishing a turd shinier and shinier.

Sheshirdzhija

The way some podcasters simplify it, recursive improvement is the thing that would at the same time enable better efficiency, new functionality (including better local models), and everything else. So, they do present it as winner takes all. If AGI does get made, and it's hard, I would imagine the time it would take another company to stumble upon it would be to long, and the 1st company would capture the market.

Stack_Johnson

Most hated rally in history. AGI clearly exists behind the scenes and is orchestrating the trading to fuck 99.9% of people

dekusyrup

I don't even think that's an honest framing. That's just the hype pitch to VC and IPO. "AGI" is a marketing gimmick to squeeze money out of investors during a bubble.

iceburg51

Agree with your take on this. Tangentially, here's what I think. The ultimate winner of this AI race is going to be either the chip sellers (NVDA, TSMC, MU, etc) or the first AI Lab to AGI. If not AGI, LLMs will just be commoditized. I don't think we are close to AGI. The models are improving for sure, but I don't quite think it has all the ingredients required for AGI yet. Here's what I think will happen in the next 3 years. \- The AI Data Center infrastructure spend will keep on increasing. Once the US gets saturated, the hyperscalers will explore other geographies. A large % of this infrasturcture will initially be used for training (think 35% train 65% infer) which will slowly move towards more and more infer. \- The AI Labs will keep releasing improved new models every 6 months or so, until the improvements become negligible. \- The open (mostly Chinese) AI Labs will keep distilling SOTA models and releasing them 4-6 months after SOTA model is released from one of the leading US based AI Lab. \- The US AI Labs need to charge premium for R&D amortization, safety research, RLHF alignment work, and profit margins which open AI Labs do not. Due to this US AI Labs models will be significantly more expensive than open models. \- For example, Kimi K2.6 leads on agentic and coding benchmarks — it tops SWE-Bench Pro at 58.6% (vs GPT-5.4's 57.7%). K2.6 is approximately **17x cheaper on input and 12x cheaper on output** than GPT-5.3 Codex. For a team processing 100M tokens/month, that's roughly **$81 (Kimi) vs $1,500 (GPT-5.3)**.  \- Ultimately, marginal intelligence improvements will not be worth paying premium for (e.g. new iPhones are marginally better). So, bulk of usage will be driven on open models. This is already happening. For example, Cursor shipped a an open model as their own likely with some fine tuning. \- Infrastructure companies will continue to win since they are still needed for inference but AI Labs may not.

calvintiger

It’s not a zero sum game, it’s possible for everyone you listed to win at once. And talking about how close or far we are from some mystical “AGI“ is moot, that depends entirely on your personal definition of AGI and we can’t even agree on a definition as an industry.

readytojumpstart

Oh, so like, AGI?

wkgko

If you don't think having first mover for AGI would be a game changer, then I don't know what to tell you. Of course no one really knows how close we are, but we're certainly closer than ever and this is part of the investment thesis. Why do YOU think everyone is building data centers like crazy?

NazgulSandwich

No one actually believes that shit man its a marketing thing to make poors scared of quitting their jobs. If it was real, or expected to be real in the near future, how could you make a profit off of actual AGI? It’s like saying you’re gonna put chains on god and sell him as a subscription service, thats just retarded.

wkgko

No need for profits when AGI is on the table and everyone with deep pockets is afraid of being left behind.

egauifan

Yeah its a bit sad how much money AI has gotten, heaps of people will lose money in the end imo chasing AGI because Altman and Amodei hyped it up a bit too much. The technology is inherently is dangerous for anything that is high stakes that doesn't have undo button like developing software.

Sheshirdzhija

My surface level understanding is that it's a race to AGI and they are throwing everything under the bus to get there 1st, because winner takes all (potential responsibility for ending humankind included).

C130J_Darkstar

Does July 4 qualify as “about to”? https://youtu.be/KtoLKDGmKuc?si=jO7AGI4XWf3fagQ7

HardlyDecent

What? Pretty sure short term (>1 year) capital gains is charged just as income--so if you paid 100 for it and sold it for 150 you pay your usual tax rate on the 50. Long term gains are different--more like 15% for most of us. That's all federal--not sure if state is any different. Shouldn't be as AGI is AGI.

Moocat2855

I think intc is overpriced but even i am not touching that with a 20 ft pole after seeing the reality defying strength of nvidia and AI. The minute you buy puts, they will lie and announce they totally achieve AGI in their AI sending all the bears straight to Valhalla.

Scoop211

Still paying tax on a 700k house. with an AGI of 41k, thats rough. you cant count on her business to grow either.

Sheareen

Ok, but these companies are all delusional if they think enough people are going to pay for subscriptions to use this shit, that they'll ever recoup their money. In 5-10 years these companies will realise just how badly they've miscalculated. Sure AI is going to be used but it's never gonna become AGI or worth the amount of money put into it. It's fucking braindead

dumbass-ahedratron

From the CEO's mouth 1. Full Self-Driving by 2017 2. Coast-to-coast autonomous drive by end of 2017 3. 1 million robotaxis by 2020 4. "Summon" feature across the whole country by 2018 5. $35,000 Model 3 for the masses 6. Cybertruck on time and as promised 7. Tesla Roadster (2nd gen) launch 8. Tesla battery range of 620 miles 9. Tesla Solar Roof at scale 10. Tesla never needing to raise more funding 11. Humans on Mars by the mid-2020s 12. First people on Mars in 10–12 years (from 2014) 13. High-speed underground transit at 150 mph 14.Hyperloop at 700 mph 15. Eliminating bots on X 16. Making X's algorithm open-source 17. Free speech for all (blue checkmark censorship) 18. Stepping down at Twitter after user poll 19. $2 trillion in government savings 20. Balancing the federal budget 21. AGI imminently 22. Neuralink curing paralysis at scale 23.Tesla Optimus robot in mass production 24. Self-driving "solved" by 2015 25. Tesla not needing government subsidies But I'm sure he's serious

No-Relationship8261

Why would that matter? I am not saying FSD doesn't work. I am saying if AGI is right around the corner as Elon says, that includes capability to drive a car. 20000$ robot that can also clean your home, cook for you AND drive your car is better than paying 15000$ dollars so your car drives itself.

No-Relationship8261

I am, but not for that reason. Robots are not going to be ready any time soon.  If a 20000$ AGI optimus was going to release soon as Elon said and Tesler fan's believe. 15000 dollar FSD is a very stupid purchase

H0stusM0stus

You seem to be in a similar situation as I was up until recently. I had a relatively large amount (\~175K) of VWIAX. I started investing in that fund, along with VTSAX and VWUAX, when my annual income was low and my knowledge of investing was minimal. Fast forward 8-9 years and I find myself getting absolutely crushed in taxes every year due to 1) huge capital gains distributions by VWUAX, 2) moderate capital gains payouts by VWIAX. It appears very similar to VSEQX and VWNAX. Not sure what your taxes usually look like, but those capital gains hits can be brutal So what I did is on Vanguard's site, I went to the "Sell" page for VWIAX and selected "SpecID". With that, I was able to see each lot that I had purchased and whether those lots were sitting with long term gains or losses. In my case, I was able to sell my whole position in VWIAX and the net effect was still $4700 long term loss (7900 loss / 3200 gain). I did the same thing with VWUAX and was able to harvest another $2800 of long term capital losses. The nice thing is now I have over $10K to help offset any capital gains that my remaining shares of VWUAX pay out, and I was able to move \~175K into a MUCH more tax efficient structure. Right now you are in a good position with low AGI, but once that business grows the capital gains payouts of those two actively managed funds could be the difference between being in the 22% or 24% tax bracket. If I was in your shoes, I would be looking at the SpecID for both of your actively managed funds to see what kind of losses you might have. Perhaps try to harvest some losses now to help offset the capital gains payouts, especially from VWNAX because that one looks notoriously high. And even if you do have gains, your AGI is still low enough to where you could realistically sell a significant portion of those two funds without moving into a higher tax bracket. Granted you would have to pay the 15% capital gains tax on any of those gains, but better now than when you are making $100K+ per year. I'd look at putting the proceeds towards your VTI ETF. That's just my 0.02

Gullible_Ad3785

Yeah, TSLA makes no sense for anyone to hold long. Its P/E is absurd, its reality distortion field generator is largely jumping ship to take another company to the moon, its automation looks dangerous compared to Waymo in a strict liability regime, and its main product - the EVs - got commoditized by the Chinese, who can build them cheaper and better. And if you believe in xAI, you need real AGI ASAP because you have to be the dumbest motherfucker on the planet. All the Musk dick riders will jump ship to SpaceX as soon as it does its IPO. That valuation is probably a bit fucked too once Blue Origin and the Chinese catch up, but at least it has a moat with national security and a lot of government regulation, and a lead.

Retropixl

NVDA is going to $20T in the next year bro what do you mean, AGI is here!! /s

redditissocoolyoyo

Goog and googl going to moon. The best company for a chance at AGI. PE ratio is still very reasonable for now. Get on board!!!

eudaimonia_dc

AGI achieved

manliness-dot-space

The sell signal for NVDA was when the CEO declared OpenClaw was AGI

mvhls

I don’t think we’re getting AGI anytime soon, but don’t think that matters either.

Nudge55

They have automation with Waymo, robotics, SpaceX stake, TPUs… And Dennis Hassabis. They are the only company that can actually achieve multimodal AGI.

smellysurfwax

Im retired but I’ve been using ai everyday for many tasks, mostly DIY building. Yesterday I learned Grok can make an excel spreadsheet. So I fed it a bunch of data and it created an amazing color coded spreadsheet in 5 minutes. I can’t imagine how this is affected productivity in the workplace. And what will happen when we reach AGI and all these data centers are up and running? So yeah, I’m keeping my portfolio very AI tech heavy. Generationally wealth making opportunity in my opinion.

CMTTrader

John Tetanus is Gen X and his main responsibility with be to get Apple to AGI. Tim Cooked is a boomer. I don't expect him to know about this AI shit.

mx5plus2cones

Well, the key if you really want to.... After you retire from your W2 job, find something that if you actively participate in it, and per IRS rules, losses from that active participation in that activity can be used to offset your ordinary income earned elsewhere. When I took a brief 4 year early retirement from tech in my 40ies, I became an "active" real estate professional managing not only my property but also others and also being an agent (for the purpose of scouting REO and short sales) and short term vacation rentals.. There was a lot of losses that year and it was my lowest AGI I ever had, even when I first started out working full time with a $50k/year W2 paycheck a long time ago. For example, if this is your thing. Lookup "short term rental (STR) tax loophole" (FWIW: i got bored and went back to work last March to work on AI for a CTO...) You know, figuring this out isn't that difficult these days. Just ask Claude or Gemini, and they will give you a bunch of ideas that once only CPA's knew and were hesitant to share unless you paid them for it. Now, you don't need to do this anymore to get the initial Ideas. AI is great.

mx5plus2cones

Well, the key if you really want to.... After you retire from your W2 job, find something that if you actively participate in it, and per IRS rules, losses from that active participation in that activity can be used to offset your ordinary income earned elsewhere. When I took a brief 4 year early retirement from tech in my 40ies, I because an "active" real estate professional managing not only my property but also others and also being an agent (for the purpose of scouting REO and short sales)... There was a lot of losses that year and it was my lowest AGI I ever had, even when I first started out working full time with a $50k/year W2 paycheck a long time ago. For example, if this is your thing. Lookup "short term rental (STR) tax loophole" (FWIW: i got bored and went back to work last March to work on AI for a CTO...)

perceptive_AI

AGI is when all the top AI models communicate with each other privately without humans knowing.

Flashy_Interview_301

Do you have any reason to believe they will be getting AGI before anyone else or in our lifetime?

ZedSwift

So the market can be looking forward years down the line for AGI, auto driving, $10trillion in GPU demand, but not a few months for the potentially most significant geo political event of the last 50 years?

nanobot_1000

But ChatGPT is gonna cure cancer by 2028 with AGI, invent mini fusion reactors, and be profitable

jonneh

This is a great idea! > Mythos is not a bad name for a model but it would be better if Anthropic switched to using famous Claudes. Monet, Debussy etc. The final model that achieves AGI would obviously be Van Damme

Alternative-Grand-77

AI ROI is based on worker replacement. Handwaving is done to say people will be upskilled or able to become more productive, but that next level work has not been demonstrated to be 1. Not Automatable by AI and 2. Financially Beneficial.   Anything that a human can do an AGI can do - that’s the point of this all. Who knows if they get to AGI, but they can likely convince people that they have something good enough for many jobs.  Look at HR - We already see it with this AI interview BS - who you hire for a job is very critical for a company’s success and they have offloaded it to an AI agent.  They started with AI driven reviews of candidate applications and this was the next step. Today, employers have started using AI to review performance, how long before you are fired by an AI video agent?

Antiwhippy

I don't doubt it'll keep going for another year or 2 as people try to right the ship, but we're stuck at the barely replacing junior coders and bad analysis blowing schoolgirls phase for awhile now when the whole point of this build up is AGI. LLMs has been a deadend for awhile now.

tomato232

Identify strengths and narratives RDDT: 5 straight quarters of >100% earnings growth ahead; possible S&P 500 inclusion this year; currently on sale. Could 4x this year. ORCL: OpenAI will brand itself as an interstellar, AGI god company that can make $1Q ($1,000T) to infinite money each year. ORCL is currently on sale. Could 5x this year. MSFT: Same as ORCL. Currently on sale. Could 3x this year. The market is driven by both fundamentals and narrative. These companies have strong, profitable, and growing businesses alongside powerful narratives—expect significant price gains this year 🚀🚀🚀

Colonist25

new ATHs every day in a way that doesn't feel organic. OBV isn't following. so maybe all it take is one piece of bad news ? say boots on the ground, nukes in israel, AGI mudering some dudes, taiwan invasion, ... stocks go down real hard when you zoom out to a weekly pov - that's a needle top.

PM_ME_ROMAN_NUDES

AGI on Nike Air coming in 2030

tomato232

Identify strengths and narratives RDDT: 5 straight quarters of >100% earnings growth ahead; possible S&P 500 inclusion this year; currently on sale. Could 5x this year. ORCL: OpenAI will brand itself as an interstellar, AGI god company that can make $1Q ($1,000T) to infinite money each year. ORCL is currently on sale. Could 10x this year. MSFT: Same ORCL. Currently on sale. Could 4x this year. The market is driven by both fundamentals and narrative. These companies have strong, profitable, and growing businesses alongside powerful narratives—expect significant price gains this year 🚀🚀🚀

Mean-Evidence-4056

the G in AGI is for Gay

Stack_Johnson

Is this AGI pumping the market?

iXProject

Should I avoid swing trading to reduce short term and long term capitals gains. I want to keep my AGI below the max for Roth but I am close since I sold my entire apple position. Or is profit profit?

VotedOut

AGI has now been achieved. And following deep analysis of the universe, the AGI has concluded that the solution to all life's problems is to pump SPY up in an endless vertical line.

zangor

Imagine if Allbirds creates AGI. YouTube video from 2036: “If you put $10,000 into Allbirds 10 years ago, you would have $59,000,000”.

Soffatjockis

Which is really dumb. Once AGI is achieved the digital world will be destroyed. Can't profit from a self-thinking AI that will do whatever it wants.

Low_Plastic363

The real race is AGI

RichyGamo

Sure cash keeps the business running, but buzzwords allow me to pump up my soon to be liquidated equity #AGI #NextGen #Synergy

babypho

A 50m request means this guy's AI company sucks and doesn't think big enough. Give me 2 trillion and I will give you true AGI waifu gf.

Direct_Turn_1484

If I short the shit out of it they’re gonna build AGI the next day.

Wide_Egg_5814

one of 2 scenarios possible AGI achieved AI bubbles pops and economy crashes harder than it ever did in history if AGI is achieved it's 50/50 if we all die or it becomes heaven like on earth. I'm leaning towards we all die so far given the people in power anyways the future does not look good

Neat-Concentrate-239

ChatGPT says short squeezing SPY is impossible. AGI not yet achieved I guess

Sharp_Mistake_3119

Listen up friend, you're not dumb. Your gut is right. Trust it and load up on puts.......look the hormuz strait is closed, there's war, chaos, tragedy and an AI bubble. "My gut is right, the fundamentals are there" you say. So do it, and sleep good. The next day you make your expensive-ish coffee and sit in front of the news "Mngo declares mission accomplished, now best friends with ayatollah. Pledges 3 trillion to AI funding. Pudin signs peace treaty with Ukraine"....."TSLA says AGI achieved" "Altman predicts 14 trillion revenue in 2026" Listen man, it's just a one off, let's try again.......let's load up on calls......

the_infamous_walrus

No, AI’s transformer algorithm and the likes have hit a data wall where more data is not advancing it much anymore. So Sam Altman’s AGI dream is just that, a dream; and right now vibe coding is really only good for small coding projects. Not large company infrastructure. It is good for efficiency and data handling though.

MilesDelta

Problem with LLMS is they are stupid don;t use GPT it sucks, use claude or an open source model, Open claw has a bynch of security flaws btw. So be super careful, prompt injection risk is real. I don't think they will lead to AGI, it is likely some other tech that will. Pro tip, use MD files to save xontext on Claude and you can do proxy reinfrocemnt learning and have the chat update context so it remembers. Saves a ton on compute credits

snowycashflow

I think it’ll become too expensive to implement AI no matter how good it becomes. These companies are investing trillions combined and are going to want their money back plus profits. We ain’t seeing an AI workforce for 30-50 years even if we get close to AGI.

FullOf_Bad_Ideas

I think so. But that is a dystopian world. I am convinced that this is their plan, they are already executing it now, though clawing back access is a slow process. Reasoning tokens are all hidden now, usage limits are getting smaller, their official benchmark target is GDPEval ELO, new models are released only to big players with no widespread API access, they are looking at ways in which they can hamper Chinese LLM development and I think it'll get much worse soon. Look at how LLM intelligence has grew since 2022, extrapolate it to how it'll look like in 2030. Top LLMs score 130 on offline IQ tests, LLM I have running on a local server scores 120. IQ of 130 means top 2.2 percentile of human population. 120 means top 10 percentile. It'll be going up until they hit the limit of the best data annotators they have. Global value of labour is trillions of dollars annually. Model providers are already starting to close up access so that only big employers can access it while employees on their own or small businesses won't be able to. Google, Anthopic and OpenAI are in a cartel (Frontier Model Forum) and they'll work together to ensure they get healthy margins. If they can capture that value by selling access to AGI, their valuation can be a multiple of the market that they can carve out. I think US labour income alone is $11T. If AGI can chip away 20% of that and offer that labour at half the price they are stilling looking at 90% margin and 2T of profit per year, so with standard multiples of 20-30 that's a valuation of 40-60T in market cap for the overall sector. Realistically, this won't impact US only, and it won't be 20% but probably 60% in a decade. And in the process, global GDP will be shrinking as AI services will be cheaper than human labour, and real underemployment will be raising globally. Removing human labour from economy without generating new work for them is a new paradigm and it will end in poverty for a lot of humans. Crucial anchors of this thesis - cartel is formed and won't be disrupted by the government - cartel will want to get a good ROI - cartel will prevent competitors from catching up to ensure healthy profit margins - government and AI model companies will find a way to sell underemployment as a good thing, to cook the frog. If cartel will prevail, and US model companies will continue chasing profits, they'll get them. If LLMs won't work, they'll find other architecture that can us get there. There's plenty of compute now to create AGI one way or another. I'd definitely consider investing a sizable portion of the portfolio as a hedge.

pennquaker18

You’re already buying it as fast as you can. But that’s not the point. Only the US and China will have AGI. The next global deterrent technology will have two super powers, and Europe will simply continue as a useless vassal state.

Whatdosheepdreamof

If you think that any country is going to let their fate be in the hands of another countries AGI, I have a bridge to sell you.

wee_dram

I remember from the 08 crash there were some insurance companies that got bailed out. AGI comes to mind if I remember correctly. If it happens again, insurance would be pushing their luck. Or, some sort of uprising is due. Regular Joe's tax dollars are never spent well.

MyRealUser

I read the actual link. It's wrong. You can check that on freetaxusa.com yourself. I filed with them this year for free (federal) and I'm way over that AGI.

___positive___

Bagholder spotted. Sell it, sell it, you coward! /s More seriously, eh, MSFT leadership is mediocrity personified. No vision other than enshittification and trying to ride AI's coattails. Compare that to GOOG, who actually has research contributions to AI, its own AI software and hardware, diverse bets like Waymo, and so forth. It's very possible that Windows and Office are one AI app away from irrelevancy (don't need any other software for basic purposes). Claude turning into Office/Windows is the next logical step beyond coding, if Dario has any business sense, which he admittedly might not. And I don't even buy into all the AGI hype. Plus there's the risk of the AI bubble imploding. MSFT makes Maia or whatever but that's not nearly as developed as GOOG's TPUs ecosystem and vertical integration. GOOG is more sheltered from an AI implosion that MSFT. So if AI hype is real, Windows and Office are obsolete. If AI hype is fake, MSFT is left with a popping bubble. MSFT will always be around but the risk of turning into IBM and stagnating is very real.

SpyBagholder

Also that 120B isn’t actually 120B Amazon only committed 15B. 35B only if ipo or AGI Nvidia + SoftBank 10B in 3 payment waves until 2030 The other bank had to take loans out to invest by using their own stock as collateral.

Mountain_Ape

*doesn't read the actual link* > Free Federal Return > AGI $51,000 or less Well, there's another 5 people on this sub are both financially and linguistically illiterate.

roararoarus

If this is about Anthropic achieving AGI with Mythos, it’s going to be a false alarm

LeftBullTesty

I still remember those shitty “leaker” accounts on twitter two years ago. Apparently GPT 4 was suppose to be AGI. That shit can barely count how many fingers I’m holding up.