AGI

DiscombobulatedEar88

And you are one of the people who as been buying the AI marketing hook, line and sinker. If you actually knew anything about AI, you would know the architecture and how these models are made and trained would never yield true intelligence. All the big tech companies have been crying wolf on AGI, but then it gets into our hands and is more of the same. Remember when Altman put out the whole AGI tiers thing some years ago to try and goalpost the definition of AGI? We're just now trying "agents" without them being truly capable of reasoning and we're seeing the damages of organizations that actually rely on AI for important tasks.

Emilio___Molestevez

I don't even know what AGI stands for bro

Emilio___Molestevez

I think they achieved AGI. like recently. and people who know are shitting their pants, exiting the market.

Agitated_Ranger_3812

Sure, if you ignore the fact that competitor would still need capital, launch sites, permits, supply chains, manufacturing, government relationships, orbital infrastructure, testing history, and years of execution to gain a ton of reputable support. Sure, AGI/ASI makes hard things easier, but I t does not magically give every company SpaceX’s infrastructure overnight. If anything, the companies that already have infrastructure will very likely benefit first from AGI/ASI because they can apply it immediately. I agree 20-30 years is hard to predict, but saying AGI makes SpaceX irrelevant assumes everyone else catches up instantly. I don’t think that’s realistic. They already essentially have a monopoly on aerospace and ties with the government. All it will take is a few massive contracts for SpaceX and the government to become intertwined/reliant on each other, and those contracts could be here sooner rather than later (not including the 2-4 billion dollar deals they just agreed on).

Echo-Possible

If you’re looking that far out and talking about AGI achieving amazing things then it stands to reason SpaceX won’t have much of a moat in a future in 20-30 years from now where AGI has solved all our problems. AGI will lower the barrier to entry in satellite and launch engineering and manufacturing. Profit margins in space launch and satellites will be competed away. So I wouldn’t bother investing in SpaceX for those businesses. Very likely incumbents will either 1) take their business or 2) ensure it’s an extremely low margin business. And to be brutally honest I wouldn’t invest in any individual stock based on that long of a horizon. Infinite unknowns in the next 20-30 years especially if you believe in AGI. The next few years? The next 5-10 years? That’s near term enough where we have some reasonable idea of who will generate massive profits. And SpaceX won’t be one of them. Long long term the only safe bet is the index. There will be a lot of new winners in the next 20-30 years that haven’t been formed yet. Lastly, I’m not ignoring AI I’m heavily invested in the actual AI winners and I’ve already hit my retirement number in my 30s.

Agitated_Ranger_3812

Lmao you talk about doing all of this research, yet you won’t even look into the thing thats going to impact humanity the most? Including the stock market (when unemployment hits critical levels)? Do me a favor. Look up AGI, ASI, and LEV. Tell me that everything I mentioned in my post above is impractical. You probably won’t, but don’t mark my comment off as insane when you obviously don’t have any idea what I’m talking about.

ArthoriasOfTheLight

One thing I am not sure of regarding the future of AI driven stocks, is where will the revenue come from to the ones at the end of the chain? ASML, TSMC, fabs and other hardware companies like MU, SK etc. are making their money now, that is fair. But what about the ones spending 100 billions on compute, such as google, openai, anthropic etc.? How will they get their returns on these investments? I doubt there is this much money from consumers to spend on AI subs? Let's say I don't think AGI is possible and never happens, and we just get stronger and better versions of the current chatgpt, claude, gemini models. What then? How are these 100+ billion investments worth it?

AlverinMoon

First of all, you need to sit down and decouple your emotions from your stock decisions, that's likely what got you into this mess in the first place. The best way to do this is to stop checking your ticker and get on with the rest of your life. Nvidia is the most valuable company in the world. It will only moon if something nobody see's coming happens, like AGI is announced tomorrow but we find out it takes a ton of compute or something. Just because you have a bunch of money in Nvidia doesn't mean it's gone just because it's going down. I held BITCOIN which was a way stupider and more volatile bet, for years and eventually ended up with a 40x gain, despite it dropping down catastrophically soon after I bought it. You're not a day trader, you know this. Stop looking at your ticker every day if it upsets you. You should only ever use your emotions to generate actions that make you curious like "Why is the stock going down?" not decisions ie "Should I sell this or that?" Finally, look at you're fuckin portfolio pal. You're practically millionaire. Nobody cares if you lose or gain a half a million and neither should you. By living in America in the first place you're already in the top 1% of wealth opportunity in the world, now tack on the fact that you're literally wealthy? Give me a break man. I have 20k in my investment account. I would eat shitsteak off the bottom of a dumpster with a smile to have your fuckin position right now, even IF the stock was going down. Finally, if you think Nvidia is just going to continue to go down for the rest of the year then obviously you should sell it then move it somewhere else, just remember the wash sale rule. Talk to a tax preparer about the tax bill, not Reddit. Again, you're literally rich, quit stressing, live your life you wealthy fuck. Some of us out here live in an asbetos ceiling apartment and are REQUIRED to clock into work every day to survive, and even in that situation we're taking risk with our portfolios in hopes we can one day have even a fraction of what you apparently seem to already have in your investment account. You'll be fine you big baby. It's 6%

Candid_Payment_4094

Claude Fable just did my taxes and fucked my wife. Is this what AGI feels like?

DataCassette

Yeah but Claude can just make more oil because it's AGI, you wouldn't understand because you're a Luddite

StatisticianActual1

What profits? Everytime I ask how the economy will function if all work is automated, reddit tells me 10% of the US does 50% of all consumption or something along the lines of a K shaped economy. The top 10% is still millions of regular people with jobs and businesses who would all be automated. If AGI/ASI is achieved, the only thing left will be the 2-3 Ai companies with the most powerful Ai's and like 10 trillionaries that own everything. How does line go up in this scenario I'm genuinely asking

WrexyWrex

AGI is officially here. [https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2064431946780868713?s=20](https://x.com/jasonfurman/status/2064431946780868713?s=20)

cupofchupachups

"it's well known we can't do" I mean, that's my point. It doesn't really think. It's not going to progress to AGI. Whether it's called Humanity's Last Exam or ARC-AGI whatever, it's the same issue. They train to pass the test, which many people take to be a sign of emerging intelligence... then it fails with a few simple modifications to the test. Some of these models do worse if you change the typeface in the test, even.

savingstrainagain

Well nothing is free but my track record has been insane when I trust my gut and do my research. These companies just aren’t profitable and are all positioned perfectly to fail, there’s so many headwinds unless they major breakthrough in AGI which I think the stock will plummet before they can get there. IPO will be the final gasp of inflow as the venture capital and circular investing comes to a slow, lenders charging more interest. They have to dump on retail to get more funding. Or it could go to the moon. I mean nothing is free in the market

Katejina_FGO

They don't need the hypothetical perfect AGI. They just need something good enough to replace a human worker. And that potential is what investors are hoping to be attainable soon.

MotherAd1865

I don't think it will take as many jobs as some people fear... at the end of the day the current LLMs are nowhere close to being as powerful as a hypothetical AGI. The companies are realizing that "fear" marketing is not working ahead of IPOs, so they're switching to "hope" marketing instead.

Craig_1988

They will get AGI. And not long after that Artificial Superintelligence.

tachyonvelocity

lol no, probably just Apple's Siri/AI features being disappointing, AGI isn't coming just yet it seems.

savingstrainagain

That’s not enough. They are promising the world and the market is pricing in like they will all get AGI. Some parts like what you say are working and will work for AI. It’s a transformative technology. But these token based companies burning 5 billion a month will not make it without government subsidization. And Chinese open models coming for their ass. There’s more downside than upside for these companies.

Jealous_Bookkeeper20

Pre-tax contributions to a Solo 401k reduce your adjusted gross income (AGI) for income taxes off the top, and you deduct them on Schedule 1 of your Form 1040. Keep in mind this only reduces your income tax, not your 15.3% self-employment tax, which is calculated on your net self-employment earnings before the 401k deduction. Are you planning to make both the employee and employer profit-sharing contributions this year?

riteshpakalarao

For most AGI narrative incumbents, the moat is definitely subsiding as people get more educated on the concepts involved and the dramatic marketing subsides. Mistral's open-source moves will probably save them in the end.

Longjumping-Dig8498

Tldr: more GPUs, more AI hype, still not enough for my NVDA calls to print like I want 😂 This is cool and all but at this point every press release is just “we got GPUs, pls build your AGI here” while Nvidia siphons everyone’s tendies from the top.

throwaway9gk0k4k569

So what happened on Friday? One of the crack squirrels in KOSPI farted and all the dumb animals panic stampeded for the door. - Earnings season was over. - Nine fucking weeks of nonstop up. - Computex 2026 ended without any dramatic positives for AI. Nvidia laptops didn't impress. - AVGO guidance wasn't good enough. - Employment numbers were "unexpectedly good" (they were actually crap but the media hyped it up). - Iran Israel and USA actually shooting at each other again during the non-cease fire. - Trump announced new tariffs because of course he did. - META decided to MEETOO Google and pre-announce diluting existing shareholders because Suckatrud is out of original ideas. - "Trump administration and OpenAI discussing possible government stake" headlines are negative. - Anthropic FUDding that AI needs to be slowed down/regulated to cover for the fact that there won't be AGI. - Blue Origin's rocket explosion really did mess up Space stocks. That's going to hurt for months. - Oil price shock is delayed but not denied. The tanker sized dildo of consequences moves slow, but it's still coming. - Anticipation of this week's Triple Witching. - Anticipation of this week's SpaceX IPO. - Anticipation of this week's CPI and PPI reports. It wasn't one thing. It was everything and then a twig snapped or someone saw their shadow and freaked. Classic animal panic. Did I miss anything?

throwaway9gk0k4k569

So what happened on Friday? One of the crack squirrels in KOSPI farted and all the dumb animals panic stampeded for the door. - Earnings season was over. - AVGO guidance wasn't good enough. - Employment numbers were "unexpectedly good" (they were actually crap but the media hyped it up). - Anthropic FUDding that AI needs to be slowed down/regulated to cover for the fact that there won't be AGI. - Oil price shock is delayed but not denied. The tanker sized dildo of consequences moves slow, but it's still coming. - Iran war scary noises. - Nine fucking weeks of nonstop up will do that. - Trump announced new tariffs because of course he did. - META decided to MEETOO Google and pre-announce diluting existing shareholders because Suckatrud is out of original ideas. - "Trump administration and OpenAI discussing possible government stake" headlines are negative. - Computex 2026 ended without any dramatic positives for AI. Nvidia laptops didn't impress. - Anticipation of next week's Triple Witching. - Anticipation of next week's SpaceX IPO. - Anticipation of next week's CPI and PPI reports. It wasn't one thing. It was everything and then a twig snapped or someone saw their shadow and freaked. Classic animal panic.

Mission-Necessary-10

Am I the only one that feels like there is zero chance an LLM ever achieves AGI? Fundamentally the way they work means they can’t be generally intelligent. The AI companies know this but they just want to extract as much capital as they can and know they’ll be out before the bag drops

Complex-Walk8027

This is a dumb take. AGI is not needed for AI to be valuable. I pay $200 a month, that literally defines value. No other subscription in the world can demand that price tag.

cupofchupachups

Think about what that means. Humans score perfect on ARC-AGI-2 and LLMs struggle. So they trained the models specifically to perform well on ARC-AGI-2. People like you are fooled into believing that "it's really thinking now." The next test comes out and once again, humans with no special training are able to get 100% and LLMs struggle. They might be able to train it specifically to win, but then version 5 will come out, ad infinitum. It's never thinking, it's just getting trained for the test. And guess what? Real life is a series of tasks humans have never seen in exactly that format before but nonetheless are able to complete flawlessly. A new game, a new mechanism to operate...

Moral4postel

Best comment I read thus far: > Trying to scale LLMs to AGI is like trying to scale a latter to reach biblical heaven.

Bubbly_Doughnut_3880

I don't really get the context of this? Will Enterprise adapt the said Chinese models in America? One of the reasons Claude has become expensive, in my opinion, is the compute constraint, with the current deals that they are signing for compute power, I would imagine that cost will go down or stabilise. Also, I think you are underestimating Anthropic. How profitable have they been this year? how oversubscribed was their last investment round? Sure you can make the argument that other providers have ecosystems that they can build out from (eg. Google) but I think anthropic knows this, that is probably like the initial focus was on coding platform. I don't see them going anywhere. I think that coding is just one of the piece of the puzzle, I see AI coding evolving completely to the full software stack from backend to frontend plus design, plus memory, plus marketing, plus everything. I don't know what code is enough for right now. because if things are good enough right now, I would imagine that there's so much more we can do then. and I think that's the play Anthropic is making or at least hope they are. The Agentic coding application space is going to evolve so much, that I think that there's quite a few things that can radically change there and we are all in the early stages of that. I think sure AGI is worlds way, if we want to make that argument, but I think they are going to continue to remain a big player in the AI space for awhile. As software stacks become more agentic. There will be a space for Anthropic. The pie is too big that there's enough room for them to get a big piece out of.

Successful_Car1670

Hoping for AGI and massive layoffs which will just create revolution and UBI. GL

TxavengerxT

You said it was highly debatable… You’ve doubled down on this narrative by calling Hassabis a heretic on this front… Instead of being snarky, all you actually have to do is name an expert who believes chatbots/LLMs can lead to AGI. Terence Tao also believes AGI is not possible through chatbots/LLMs, but he’s a mere mathematician.

thecodexdhnerbbTW

AI models are still built through science and technical rigor so they aren’t imaginary like alchemy. I do believe alchemy pursuits did lead to invention of gunpowder but didn’t truly accomplish what was sought. Same thing here. People see that AI models can take in a lot of info to make decent to really good generalizations, yet Ai models are not there yet, even for SWE which the AI companies are most familiar with and have focused on the most since they are composed of so many tech bros. They still hallucinate, they don’t continually improve, they still struggle with massive context windows, they are strangely narrow minded on tasks, etc. the current scaling can marginally improve their generalization abilities, but to achieve true AGI and adaptive thinking, this may not be the way.

Willing-Angle-2203

the shovel makers are, because they are being injected with capex money. The hyperscalers are counting increase in valuations as revenue too, in an obvious financial fuckery move, but whatever. my point still stands tho, if OpenAI/Anthropic are so promising, why aren't they yelling at us about their amazing profitability? Anthropic claimed they had ONE profitable quarter (which was an anomaly because of their accounting/deal with SpaceX, but ok) in the real world, companies are being shocked at how expensive AI is. The costs of AI are still insane. Data centers are being delayed and are extremely unpopular. if you have any way of showing me where value is actually being generated, go ahead. Afaik we are running on vibes and "AGI WILL COME SOON" or "AI WILL SUBSTITUTE EVERYONE" narratives

Willing-Angle-2203

bols are grasping to straws at this point. Fuck futes. Let's be real for a moment. Not even trying to bait, but wtf is the bull case for the next year? hormuz crisis is not even done yet, the problems only get worse. Inflation, yields, rate hikes, yadada. Just look at all other energy crisis in history, recession follows. wtf is AI going to do? ROI questions are becoming more prominent. NO ONE except nvidia/chip makers is making revenue, and that revenue is circular financing/capex from the hyperscalers. Stories about companies backtracking from AI are becoming more popular everyday. No fucking one wants data centers near them. If anyone believes AGI is coming, I have a bridge to sell you. we've watched companies 10x like it's nothing. Take some profits and stop being so greedy

SafeMargins

The issue isn't if cutting edge LLM's are economically useful, they are. The issue is there is too much competition at the top and right behind them are open source models that. There's not much room for profit margin here. And if one of them manages to invent an AGI good enough to replicate itself, then they have no value anymore. I think AI is here to stay and will be a huge part of everyones life but AI model companies are gonna be a loser long term, no question imo.

Much_Caramel_8842

Does anyone actually have a clear definition for AGI ?

TxavengerxT

I am by know means an expert but I know how LLMs work (I just read a book on it) and I understand logically that language manipulation will not result in a system with general intelligence. Could you name an expert who believes chatbots/LLMs can lead to AGI? I know Demis Hassabis doesn’t think so.

osemec

You talk about AGI like it's some sort of binary thing. In reality, all current models are already "smart enough" if instructored right. The real limitation is not the model anymore.

TxavengerxT

Improvements in chatbots/LLMs and their capability to infer is nowhere near the road to achieving AGI

SteveSharpe

If one person using an LLM can do the work it used to take 5 people to do, you can replace 4 of the 5 without requiring AGI. There is no reason why AGI has to be necessary for LLMs to be a major impact on the economy and society. If AGI is not achieved, that actually leaves more room for the individual companies to differentiate with the tool stack they build around their LLM, which is what has driven Anthropic's success in the enterprise so far. Also, replacing workers isn't necessary at all for this to work. If 1 working with an LLM can do the work of 5, you could replace 4 of the workers and keep doing the same amount of work, or you could keep all 5 and do 25x the work of one.

Sisaroth

I could be wrong, but I really don't see how LLMs could possibly be a straight pathway to AGI. It's clear that they only understand language, they don't understand things fully the way humans understand things. They often still make mistakes that even stupid people would never make and it's simply because there is no real consciousness or intelligent thought there. It's just very fancy statistics picking out words/tokens in the right order. Not an LLM hater though, there are lots of things they do better than a human, but at the end of the day it's still just a tool.

Harvard_Med_USMLE267

lol,so you’re cherry picking a test that was recently created specifically to try and challenge LLMs…because they were absolutely crushing the previous thinking test, ARC-AGI-2

LoS-LordOfStalkers

AGI likely won’t appear in your lifetime

Expert_Context5398

He's talking about at a mass scale. Right now, there's still a need for these coders and engineers to reach AGI so you need to hire them to verify and correct. If it could replace workers right now, the unemployment rate would skyrocket and the economic output would be near infinite. I give it within the next decade or two that humans will probably not be needed to do most work and some form of UBI is introduced. If AGI can even do 25% of what humans can but work 24/7 in doing so, it's pretty much game over.

aloha-lord

Anthropic produces fairly high-quality models and serves them at a lower cost than other AI model builders. They don't need to get to AGI to be profitable. They simply need to continue producing high-quality models that automate low-risk routine tasks to justify their current valuations. On the consumer side, some permutation of subscription and ads business will eventually emerge. Anthropic understands that their business is a combination of high-quality research and keeping compute and data costs low as they scale distribution. They are executing better than most of their competition(Google is the exception). Google isn't great with the enterprise market, so someone will have to fill that gap. Anthropic is likely to fill the gap and be one of the 2 biggest players in the space.

demaraje

What is the ROI of Claude? I know several EU companies that use open source models. Including DeepSeek. 10k a month? LOL. Maybe per dev. 500 devs will churn through 1 M $ easily. No one is paying for Gemini. No one is paying the full price of Claude. Let's talk about their maket share when they do. Without AGI, none of these companies are profitable, maybe Google with strict limitations.

demaraje

You missed some things: * Claude code is a vibecoded harness that they made open source willingly or accidentally. * Deepseek is not cheaper due to energy. It's a distilled model from ChatGPT/Claude output. The latter spend billions in training, RLHF, alignment, data curation, just to have it stolen through their own APIs. And they can't stop it. Deepseek will ALAWAYS be cheaper. * Claude will never reach AGI because it has no world model. It cannot replicate human behavior entirely. The proof is that if it could replicate entire SaaSes, do medical research, etc. , Claude will have an Applied sciences sector/sister company that makes this shit. They don't. Because it can't. It's like a gold prospection company selling a device that locates gold instead of just finding the gold.

Monk_Boy

This was OpenAI’s plan for a while, I remember this briefly in the news months ago, and there was a backlash, and then they backtracked. OpenAI was never going to be profitable, the government is framing this like wartime spending, cuz we gotta beat China to AGI. I imagine many in the government plan on personally profiting on the IPO. Trump isn’t one to turn down a scam when he can make a buck off it.

Shajirr

You cannot achieve AGI with LLMs though, its a dead-end tech.

Prudent-Corgi3793

None of these companies have a moat, since the Chinese open weight models are not far behind. And I do not believe AGI is anywhere in the near future. What these companies to have, however, is unprecedented growth rates. The total addressable market is incomprehensible. OpenAI has triple digit revenue CAGR, which would be one of the fastest growing companies of all time except Anthropic is putting up unfathomable four digit CAGRs for the past two years. This business model is unlike anything we have ever seen in tech—heavy capex with solid unit economics but not the high >90% gross margins we were used to from software companies.

throwaway2676

Sort of. AGI is us, but working 24 hours a day and reasoning way faster than us. The rate of progress spikes up dramatically when we have that kind of intellectual horsepower

Busy_Bee_1729

The issue is this: Anthropic isn't satisfied with making AI systems that can do certain things really well and incrementally improve. Their goal is to make an AI system that can do it all, so they can replace humans in the workplace and make tons of money. "If my colleague knows how to bake a cake, so should Claude". The problem with this line of reasoning is that generalised AI that has strong abstract reasoning and problem solving skills is very hard to create. 1. It requires an enormous amount of training data, compute, electricity, water etc. 2. Nobody knows if this vague idea of "general intelligence" can be achieved just by scaling. And even if it were created, it needs to be cheaper than just hiring a human. Currently, tokens are being sold at subsidized rates and the cost is still enormously high. Just ask Uber and Walmart. So you see how many constraints we have to work with here, if we want to ship this pipe dream of AGI.

DrHarrisonLawrence

Agreed. AND I’m concerned with how many people here are getting upvoted for agreeing with OP. AGI is emerging this year and will be full force in 2027+ People will continue operating with the companies that have first mover advantage. They are able to hire the most valuable engineers to continue winning the race. We know who are in the playoffs. An underdog is not coming out as an emergent opponent…yet. Long Live NBIS

SingerOk6470

Agreed with all points. It's a race to AGI or race to bottom. The upside with AGI is too massive, though i don't believe AGI is possible and the cost of improving models will increase more. Another interesting story is on the smaller and more efficient models. There is significant demand for efficient models run locally or only for specific applications. Many current models are "do it alls" or made with coding in mind, but fail a lot with tool use or in specific user applications especially outside coding. If AGI appears impossible and the better approach is to build user or application specific models, there can be a separate business in that. Lastly, there can be significant breakthroughs in engineering that reduce compute cost dramatically.

ptwonline

They don't necessarily need to have an insurmountable moat with better models, agents, or AGI. They mostly need to capture enterprise/business by getting there first and establishing an ecosystem that uses their embedded services and being good enough to keep that business, and to outlast most of the other competition who also find it too expensive to keep going when someone else is getting the actual revenues. A lot of businesses are that way: you can in theory replace their products or services but once they are established it's hard and if they are integrated into a complex environment then it gets way harder. Whether Anthropic achieves this remains to be seen, but they seem to be in the lead.

quantum_simpleton

You dont need AGI to replace workers. The evidence is quite literally workers have already been replaced! Humans think in absolutes, need to remove bias from evaluation.

sotanez

LLMs alreay have more data and compute than any single person. The fact is that organic brains do something more than adjusting weights based on statistic correlations, and nobody knows how to emulate it. Anybody claiming AGI will happen in 1/10/100 years is just guessing.

michahell

Perfect explanation of why Anthropic has no real moat until this: > Therefore their only shot at redemption is AGI. /stops reading, massive facepalm LLMs are not going to lead to AGI. massive simulation of next token prediction DOES NOT EQUAL intelligence. Do you even have the slightest idea of how any of it works, at all? Do you have any idea of what is needed for AGI at all? There are NO companies today even remotely near AGI because the science of how to get there does not exist. Robots <> AGI LLMs <> AGI predicting text <> AGI A robot using an LLM and STT / TTS… <> still. not. AGI stop using the word AGI for everything

Hot_Individual5081

i think they wont achieve AGI based on LLMs

bensquirrel

I have a hard time taking anybody seriously who talks about AGI.

bartturner

> AGI is not happening anytime soon. Completely agree. But what people seem to not understand is that we really do not need AGI right now.

Okay_Ocean_Flower

The lack of self-improvement over a conversation means we don’t get AGI. It’s a necessary ingredient and training is too intensive to do live.

PeabodyEagleFace

Even if they attain AGI (whatever that means): how hard is it to distill into open weights.

Zealousideal-Bus4712

we're already at what any reasonable AI researcher would have called AGI as recently as 5-10 years ago. frontier agentic LLMs are artificial, generalized intelligence. they can do almost any cognitive task that a human can do, faster, and better. they are now starting to prove longstanding math theorems that humans haven't been able to crack. they can solve domain specific problems across a huge range of domains. as for claude / anthropic, they're good, but they're behind openai and will most likely continue to fall behind. AI is a winner-take-all domain and its looking increasingly likely that OpenAI will be that winner.

cupofchupachups

Tops models currently score something like 0.5% on ARC-AGI-3, a test humans can easily score 100% on. They're not thinking. They're not going to think.

CarefullEugene

And even if somehow AGI was on the foreseeable future for LLMs, another big issue is how freaking slow they are. Our brains do **some** of these tasks faster and using 10w of power . Yes they mimic *some* brain structures and processes, but ain't no way LLMs are going to be the thing that gets us to AGI.

Juhyo

Having compared these models, I can confidently say that while they each have their strengths and weaknesses out of the box, and they’re all effective, it’s *critically* important and can save hours downstream (especially if you’re collaborating with others or are being reviewed) if you modify the process and give them formal instructions. Agents are great, but they’re not fit-for-purpose; to expect they’ll be great at any task, given just the task, means the user has made a stupid assumption that they’re already at AGI.  There’s a reason why there are tons of engineers putting out tutorials on how to use these tools *for other engineers*. If you think you don’t need those tutorials and aren’t writing back-end code or markdown documents to modify memory and behaviors, you’re falling behind. I’ve been following several engineers, but I recommend Matt Pocock’s recommendations as they’re effective and more practical to implement (and also don’t just always max resources). Saves tokens and expensive iteration time to get it right sooner and hallucinates less (unless you can’t give it sufficient direction).

beerion

They just have to outlast everyone else. I don't think they need to reach AGI. They just need to offer enough of a marginally better product that customers choose them. More customers mean more revenue, which means more capital for compute, which means they can expand the performance gap between them and rest of the pack. If this doesn't play out, and there's no winner in the next couple of years, this will be just like the airline industry - capital intensive, commodity product. The fact that anyone with some capital can spin up a model, and the fact that it doesn't seem like there's much IP differentiation - every model seems to be very similar in terms of both training style and data access - leads me to think it'll be the latter (i.e., airlines). So that's the question. Will OpenAI vs Anthropic vs Gemini = Camry vs Accord vs Civic?

betarhoalphadelta

Yep. And it's important to understand that 22% is the low end. It only takes $103K AGI for a single filer to boost to the 24% bracket, and $197K to jump to the 32% bracket. Short term capital gains count as income (as I understand it; let me know if I'm wrong here) so if you have decent income and then spike your cap gains over the course of a year, you might jump up. Then there's 3.8% NIIT. Single hits at that $200K threshold, And then you have to look at state tax. I don't know where u/Opening-Ad-1506 lives, but here in CA, cap gains are taxed as ordinary income. That'd be in the 9.3% bracket. So if your AGI is >$200K (filing single), you're hitting 32% fed STCG + 3.8% NIIT + 9.3% CA. That's as high as 45% of your gains. That's a HELL of a lot of tax drag.

fahrenheitc

I mean AGI is just us. We are also general intelligence.  So could we build super intelligence? Maybe but not immediately In theory you could spin up a trillion AGIs to solve the problem of ASI but we don’t have enough electricity to support that much inference even with chip capacity doubling every 2 years

Aware_Secret_8910

The people talking about AGI are pretty much like people talking about alchemy thousands of years ago

nobertan

I’d say they have a massive advantage over other models and AGI might level the playing field. Their USP is the context / boundaries wrapper around the model to keep it focused.

Cornwallace88

>Therefore their only shot at redemption is AGI. If AGI were somehow achieved are we not then fast on the runway to the singularity and ASI? In which case who knows what it would mean for any of these companies, the economy, or the world in general?

fahrenheitc

If you want to replace workers you need AGI, if you want to augment - then LLMs are fine.

marvin_bender

All frontier models are pretty close to one another. If one reaches AGI, which it won't anytime soon, the rest will also follow fast. They use the exact same tech.

DarkVoid42

we are a good 20 years from AGI

leovin

I think it’s pretty clear that the LLM architecture of today is not going to achieve AGI. But does it really need to if it’s already proven to be a useful tool?

lkh9596

Let me say this as a heavy user of Opus, Codex and Gemini. I know AI bulls don’t want to hear this. AGI is not happening anytime soon. Maybe when there is a new AI model that can take the current AI to the next level. These LLM models still hallucinate like crazy and sometimes can’t even do simple tasks correctly. They are great tools but AGI? Give me a break. I spend more time fixing and reviewing their mess than actually working on the project itself. It is just a marketing hype at this point.

fahrenheitc

If AGI is just scaling compute and inference, then yes, it isn't a moat. But if it requires some other proprietary breakthrough, like transformers in 2017, then they have absolute advantage. But it's a complete gamble between all the AI Labs.

andromorr

Actually I'd argue that AGI isn't a moat either. If Anthropic can achieve that milestone, others won't be far behind. 

demaraje

Ahahahaha. Someone is a angry. Typcal subhuman behavior. DK as fuck, he barely understands basic shit. GPT 4o has 90% of quality was like 25% of the price on enterprise accounts. What's the ROI difference on a typucal task, dumbass? ROI matters. Anthropic can train something that cleans out SWE Bench (it won't), but if it costs 100$ per inference, and DeepSeek can do very well at 10$ who gives a fuck? I'm just gonna call 5 DeepSeek agents that collaborate. AI race is about ROI. Only dumb bugers like you who think they will reach AGI think it's about quality.

fungoodtrade

TLDR; AI will be the most profitable omnipresent part of human society for the foreseeable future. There is no bubble. Maybe short term overspending, but this isn't going to structurally harm these big companies long term. Companies are spending real money creating the powerful compute clusters to offer AI services. What is not real about that? Will these investments be justified doesn't make sense. Justified to who? Its already justified to the companies that made the investment. The decisions have been made. Sure the decisions can be changed, but we are already on this path. If a datacenter is being leased out 24/7/365 it is generating enough money to hopefully pay for its own upgrades. The questions you ask here are relevant, and they are enormous questions that have a lot of hidden data. Company x doesn't know exactly how company y is solving a problem, or maybe the problem is already solved by company z, but they haven't disclosed that information. There are resources being wasted during this process, but megacaps want to stay in control of this emergence of this tech to the extent that they can. In terms of profits and valuations... just wait for earnings if you want to invest on fundamentals. If you want to invest on technicals... do that. If you want to bet against the whole thing do that. Google changed the internet when their search algo came out and was a bazillion times better than yahoo, aol, etc. Chatgpt, gemini, and all the other models are competing for a similar place in history right now. If a company produces actual AGI (which they are very close to doing already)... just imagine what that means for robots, cars, farms, schools, hospitals... it literally changes the paradigm of our species. Maybe we won't even have a stock market to worry about in 100 years. I see an oligarchy that controls everyone's access to this type of tech by extracting as much wealth as they can for the foreseeable future. I'll be on the farm extracting some milk from my goats. The masses are easily preyed on financially. There is no AI bubble, there is just infrastructure investment to control the entire future trajectory of humanity. In my mind that is certainly a profitable endeavor, and humans in general have been separated from the land for long enough now that it is easy to shuffle them along in any direction someone sees fit...

TuckerMcG

Lmfao you think we’re gonna get AGI and see the end of the world in 2 years? If you’re wrong you better man the fuck up and respond with an apology.

TuckerMcG

Because (1) it’s coming from a biased source that has every reason to lie to us to make their product seem better than it is, (2) I don’t believe AGI is even possible without unlocking cold fusion first, (3) AI in it’s current form isn’t capable of thinking and we’d have to completely redesign how it works in order to make it capable of thought, (4) the advancements of generative AI are already starting to stagnate, as the improvements between each new version update are basically imperceptible at this point, (5) the hallucination problem is a serious obstacle that needs to be overcome, and again, the current models aren’t capable of avoiding hallucinations, and (6) we live in a reality that’s constrained by resources and ruled by politics, which are their own limiters to technological advancement - from a technology standpoint we could have completely shifted away from oil and onto solar/nuclear energy at this point but we remain reliant on oil due to politics despite the fact climate change is going to destroy our planet. So yeah, maybe I’m too grounded in reality to buy the hype train of a man who’s net worth is directly tied to convincing the world his product is a panacea.

Stolen_Sky

In my opinion, the issue here is that we don't know how powerful AI is going to become.  In order to justify the current valuations, it needs to go beyond just LLMs, because on their own, LLMs aren't going to do anything.  What's needed is an Agentic AGI that do the jobs of 100 million people. That's the only way OpenAI and Antropic can realise their potentials. If they can't get there, the AI bubble will pop. If they can, we're in for the biggest economic upheaval in 1000 years. 

PenguinOfB00m

Current tech and hardware can't do AGI

TreGet234

Ai is the future. But yes we may see a post dotcom style dip since the market got ahead of themselves with speculation. Then we rocket to AGI valhalla.

TreGet234

A necessary evil for the AGI revolution. Bullish.

Opposite_Day_9771

Passive index investing contributed to the bubble along with the fed always printing money to bail institutions out. Is this going to happen again? Reasons why it may continue to go down: circular investing, Hormuz remains closed and SPR running out in a few weeks, central banks selling US treasuries to buy oil, inflation is going up and people’s spending habits curtailing based on (HD, LOW, MCD), Q1 earnings based on pre-war data, more shares to buy due to multiple IPOs that would dilute total number of outstanding shares traded for the tech sector, and the bond market with rates going up due to everything above.   Why would it rebound? AI spending because AGI is nigh. If you’re not first, you’re last. Super intelligence would wipe out their businesses so they’re all in. The government would nationalize the first company that achieves this goal due to national security. What am I missing?  

Roxalon_Prime

The сurrent AI is literally the definition of a "weak AI" as we knew it like 40 years ago. Anyone who thinks you can create an AGI from that has an IQ of depths of vacuum. It's funny how they even invented the new terms for it, so retards wouldn't be able to see direct parallels

Rajiiin

The people who wants tio create AGI wanna stop because they are about to create one . Lmao we are about to create a nucléaire bomb . Everyone stop trying to create one.

Cloudbase_academy

Market started to price in the fact that the first thing AGI superintelligence is going to do is resurrect Lenin

FishFart

We’re all wondering why they are doing this massive build when the value isn’t even there yet. My theory is they are trying to build AGI as we all know but on the other side, for it to be so valuable and intertwined in our lives that it becomes too big to fail. The government will then bail out the eventual collapse and big tech will takeover the government.

TheVishual2113

You know how corporate landlords leave units empty and generate less money but keep the valuation of your building high? Same premise, gotta be pretending to be doing something. I really think they pray everyone using their shit will give them the data they need to build AGI.

ThirdEyee

HAHAHAHAHA have fun losing your money bud. Why do you think Spacex had to incorporate XAi? How come Anthropic can’t stop losing billions of dollars? It’s a scam and you’re falling for it so hard. The only people that seriously are talking about AGI are the CEO’s of AI. People who actually work on these LLMs know you can’t achieve AGI through training LLMs

musafir6

Its not about the deal but the gold rush for compute. Have we seen any metric around productivity gains from AI. Is it even worth it. (AI is a very useful technology but I don't understand the rush to AGI).

CaffeinatedT

It's the backing away slowly that seals the existence of AGI for me.

Comfortable_Thing611

Claude saw that shit coming a mile away, it's either achieved AGI or it controls the market now.

PaperHandsTheDip

The goal isn't AGI, that's a stepping stone that will be reached with recursively self improvement. Anyone who has used the recent models knows just how good they've gotten. The singularity is the inevitable outcome of recursive self improvement. AGI - human level intelligence. So far AI has been made by... humans. Once you get it recursively self improving, it'll very quickly gets smarter. As it continues to get smarter / more intelligent you don't even need a human in the loop to architecture things. The ai will do it better. Singularity - When you have an AGI (that is smarter than us) continue to self improve. Each iteration it gets even more intelligent. You end up reaching a super intelligence that is smarter than us in every way shape & form that we don't understand. Human intelligence becomes more or less "obsolete" in that universe.

PaperHandsTheDip

We're cooked. AGI is closer than you guys think: [https://www.anthropic.com/institute/recursive-self-improvement](https://www.anthropic.com/institute/recursive-self-improvement) They're very close to closing the "recursively self improve" loop. It's going to happen before the decade closes. At that point - you can take that AI and point it towards any problem. It'll solve it better than humans. We're going to see that in the 2030's. TLDR: I don't think it's a bubble.