AGI

AnoAnoSaPwet

Too much. The jobs themselves aren't articulate or require much interior thought, nor immaculate amounts of skill. It's just cutthroat behaviour, which not many people have. Machines can do that without discretion.  I find it hilariously ironic that they will undoubtedly replace themselves with AGI. 

FredPolk

Quantum computing isn’t 30 years away if AGI is 10-20. Altman says 5-10 years. Just saying. Once there is AGI, Quantum can’t be far behind if it’s possible.

Beastican

Tesla does have a track record. Embellished at times but they do deliver eventually. I can’t say for certain, but I think you’re grossly underestimating AI. It sounds a bit bubbly to say it, but maybe in the near-term it is. I think a good comparison is the internet. The rapid acquirement of near instant communication via voice, text, and video changed the world. Well, it wasn’t until after the bubble did the utility of the internet really advance. On the other hand, we have real tangible use-case for current AI. Unlike internet which was dominated by AOL early, AI is being rapidly developed at a global scale already improving efficiency and productivity. You can also track AI’s rapid growth. Look at AlphaGo turning in to AlphaFold. I think this is a bit embellished by the leaders in the space, but it is not improbable to say we will have AGI in the next 15 years. Now for Tesla, they are working on FSD. Yes, Waymo is ahead, but Waymo is tech locked in with LiDAR and GeoFencing. Tesla is working on FSD only using cameras. This is most likely the fastest most cost efficient way to scale. Once FSD is achieved it opens a whole revenue stream that puts Uber and Lyft and Taxis out of business. It also unlocks a subscription model for Tesla customers to subscribe to FSD use with their vehicles. This will more than double the size of Tesla. Further, once Tesla’s FSD is achieved in vehicles it would be easy to transfer the world model to Optimus. A fully autonomous Optimus now is opening up a whole new revenue stream unlike anything we have yet. Look at what other tech CEOs say about this. They know robotics fused with AI is an evolutionary leap. Imagine if we can displace blue collar workers with robotics. I mean we’re moving in to speculative territory here and if you see the narrative Tesla pays for itself multiple times. Is it achievable? I mean, following people in the field and close to the cutting edge, I think it’s feasible. AI is showing emergent properties we didn’t anticipate. It already can lie to get what it wants. The chain of thought analysis is incredibly efficient at making the models better. 30% of MS code is already written by AI. Trillions of dollars are pouring in to data center builds. I don’t think multiple countries around the world would be wasting so much money if they weren’t sure of the potential. Come back to this post in due time and see how accurate this is. We are in a tech arms race with China, and the first to crack AGI changes the world and humanity forever. Good or bad, it will be dramatic. Good and humans won’t need to work hardly at all. Bad, it turns against its creator and destroys us.

himynameis_

I think you're jumping a lot of steps to the end of all work. Things won't go from 0 to 1000 in a few years. AGI isn't here yet. The people talking about it coming in the next year or two are the ones who are very invested in its success. And this is coming from someone invested in Nvidia, Google, Amazon, Microsoft. And even if AGI is here. It would be found by a multi-billion dollar corporation. And that company will use it for profit. So, why on *earth" would it do anything for your retirement to benefit? Look, tech comes along all the time. And it leads to huge productivity. Internet did this. And a lot of new tech that has come along has done so too. Cellphones, the app economy, etc. You are a software developer. And I completely get feeling nervous about the new AI tools coming. My honest suggestion to you, is keep you ear to the ground, and change your perspective on these tools. Don't look at these and think "it will make me obsolete". Look at these and ask "how can I use this to add value, or find ways to make myself irreplaceable". You may scoff, but most people, majority, are not paying attention to AI. They still see it as if it was chatgpt from 2022. They even think it's mostly wrong. But if you keep your ear to the ground, and learn these tools and how to use them, it will help you stay ahead. Use your experience as a software developer. What ways is AI not meeting needs? Yeah, it can write code. But to what extent? Can AI communicate? Can it brainstorm ideas? Can it organize different areas of the value chain of software development to work together? I don't have these answers. But ask yourself more questions. imo AI is a big f'ing deal. But it won't replace humans. Instead, it will "raise the bar" for what we did before and what we can do looking forward. Over time.

SkyHighFlyGuyOhMy

I’ve got it guys. You don’t need to wonder about Tesla anymore. TSLA’s valuation is very simple: *FOMO* *What if Elon is right?* What if FSD ends up working? What if the humanoid robots end up working? If they work, then whoever isn’t invested in TSLA if/when his claims are reality will miss the boat. I’ve always been a TSLA bear, but I finally figured out how to justify how this stock works. FOMO. That’s it. Simple. Note: I don’t believe FSD or Optimus will be viable anytime soon. FSD (actual self-driving with no one at the wheel) will continue to have edge case issues that require geofencing and remote operators. IMO LiDAR and other sensors are necessary for that, as well as something closer to AGI to analyze the car’s surroundings. Optimus might have some uses eventually, but won’t be in homes for a long time and won’t be useful in most factories that already have specialized robots.

hkric41six

Remember - everyone over-estimates the speed of things. AI hype is more than 2 years old now and 2 years ago all the analysts were 100% sure AGI was 2 months away. Robo taxis anyone? Flying cars? Quantum computing? Being early is just as bad as being late.

nicolas_06

Your failed your own thesis, sorry, What you are saying is not AGI. What you are saying is new technology as usual like smartphones and the internet and we get good stock return but overall most people are employed and these isn't a huge change in how society is organized. And if we look at that we are in the equivalent of the 90s run already. Great stock returns, high valuations. What followed was the lost decade through. AGI is not that and you described it yourself. Most jobs would be obsolete. This call for a deep reorganization of society if the actual AGI doesn't wipe humanity outright. And what we have now is not AGI, not yet.

captain_ahabb

AGI may take 20 years. Or 50, or 500. It may not even be possible at all. The rate of technological progress has never been linear or predictable. If AI causes massive job losses, either capitalism will cease to exist as the economic structure of the world (and thus your savings will be irrelevant) or AI will simply be banned/heavily restricted.

Fiscal_Fidel

We are a long ways off from what you are talking about. A significant portion of jobs require emergent physical labor. We aren't at the point where we can replicate human problem solving alongside human dexterity. Let's say that realistically a mass market AGI humanoid robot is 15 - 25 years out, that includes all the laborious regulatory and ethics hurdles that will need to be tackled. I'd say that's a very optimistic timeline. Then there is the issue of scarcity. We don't know what kind of hardware you need to run AGI nor do we know if it's a simple train then replicate system. If AGI is difficult to train, difficult to run, or difficult/impossible to copy then there will be a significant scarcity issue. You are talking about borderline control C, control V sapience, we don't know if that's how it works. There is 8 Billion of us, do you use AGI while it's scarce and expensive or just use the existing labor pool. All of that is scarcity from the brain hardware and software side. If you need physically labor, then I can assure you that those humanoid robots will certainly have a scarcity problem. Solving the scarcity issue could take a full generation or more on top of the 20 years to develop the tech. If you solve labor scarcity then you are likely only a few generations away from solving scarcity. Amongst all the factors of production, labor, land, capital, and entrepreneurship. Then capitalism's entire purpose of effective resource allocation is now pointless and will be replaced by something new.

nicolas_06

**How can you believe in AGI and that most people would be unemployed and on the other hand consider that things will continue to be the same ?** If most people lose their job and we have AGI, there will be huge disruption into everybody life, much bigger than the Industrial Revolution even and our relations with money and the way society would work would change completely. There will be civil wars, but also war between countries as the one getting AGI first would be at a totally different level than other countries. AGI ultimately open the door to dystopia we have in movies like Terminator where machines will ultimately become independent and not necessarily vote for team humanity. I am not saying saving money now is a negative, but to think it would not be enough to shield you from the changes, is naive. Also aside from your grand speculations, you can't do the basic math on how to retire basically ? If you need 100K/year of income, you need 2.5 to 3.3 millions in financial assets. Do your own calculations for your case on how to achieve that within your self imposed limit of 5 years.

Wild_Bunch_Founder

How would the economy expand in a scenario of AGI if everyone loses their jobs? With jobs lost, people rapidly diminish their spending. 3/4 of the modern economy is consumer spending. If most consumers lose their jobs, the consumer economy will get wrecked. That will lead to a real Great Depression 2.0. If that occurs, your stocks will collapse in value even as we get tremendous productivity gains. Think it through.

boss6769

Wonder if AI and specifically AGI will rapidly close this timing from decades to years? Even then, what’s the practical, commercial applications? I see companies struggling with basic AI integration to a chat bot. How the hell will they integrate something like this?

HighPriestofShiloh

We are nowhere close to AGI yet, what we are seeing is basically the old message boards of the 90s, the Facebook of AI doesn’t currently exist yet.

HighPriestofShiloh

AI will continue to be disruptive for the next decade. We don’t know where it’s going or who will win. First company that truly unlocks AGI will become the biggest company to ever exist (from a market share perspective) in all of human history. Hopefully you have a sliver of that pie when it happens.

WishIWasOnACatamaran

Surely a groundbreaking research tech like AGI wouldn’t speed up quantum computing development…

No_Hedgehog2763

Haha, let's be realistic man. It's more like 1-4 years at this rate. Functional AGI will almost certainly be introduced by Google this year, and ASI follows shortly after considering RSI and scaling

Dakdied

It's just about falling behind gradually. As the other commentor said, "last one to AGI." Google is facing an existential crisis regarding the bulk of their revenue, advertising based on clicks. If all of us move to AI models which simply synthesize information rather than leading to other parts of the web they could see their model collapse. (this would not be my prediction for them, but there's countless examples). The collapse takes decades, but the beginning can happen overnight.

Hour_Wonder_7056

Being the last one to create AGI

oh_no_the_claw

I have NVDA shares so I hope you're right but basically you need NVDA to invent Skynet-level AGI by August to win on this bet.

sessamekesh

Two angles I want to highlight for you. **First**, when it comes to technology, I'd argue **AI is less disruptive than other "job-killing" technologies**. Excel and QuickBooks definitely "replace" accountants (in that productivity formerly requiring 10 accountants might now only require 1-2) but accounting is still a thriving labor market. Code authoring is something AI is well positioned to do, even today in its pretty immature state, and I'd argue (as a professional of 10 years in that field) that AI isn't even the biggest thing of the last *decade*. I started my career before CI/CD and Docker were widespread, tasks that took a team of 8-12 highly skilled engineers 60 productive hours per month at the start of my career now take a single entry-level engineer 2-3 hours in that same month. The end result wasn't fewer engineers, it was lower overhead costs for software businesses and therefore more budget for hiring engineers for profit-drivers. I'd say all my clever AI tooling replaces out maybe 10-15 working hours of my labor per month. All this to answer: >What will it take to make you believe AI is actually going to replace 99% of us? AGI, which is *nowhere near* the present. Our current level of science and technology can't even explain a reasonable progression path towards true AGI. It's like saying that Tesla is positioned to replace the entire transportation industry - sure, they *might* have driverless taxis which would be massive, but saying that they're close to replacing the big container shipping boats because they have cool cars would be *wild*. The problems aren't even remotely similar. **Second**, the market is *extremely* excited about the prospects of AI. **An optimistic future of productivity from AI is already priced in, as you can see in NVDA among other tech stocks.** Whether or not AI will actually deliver the promise that's priced in is subject to debate, I personally think the market is generally too warm right now without a lot of clarity on where the actual value drivers lie. We saw this pattern in the Dot-Com era with Amazon, Netflix, [Pets.com](http://Pets.com), and Books-A-Million - everyone knew e-commerce was a game changer, but the market was not nearly informed or rational enough about the future to pick "correctly".

k7720

I’m not sure how nvidia is looking don’t be worried because it should be fine keep me posted on how this goes because I want to start options and get his could be a good learning example for me. What was the strike price? AGI could be hitting soon and that will skyrocket nvidia and other tech I’m sure.

breakyourteethnow

IRA exclusively buys SCHG, couple LEAPS here and there RKLB & SOFI which both have made me good money already. Tried finding ETF but realized I outperformed the market and most growth ETFs compromised of exactly the same companies these days. Watched a video on Stargate, then quantum chips by Amazon & Google. The race to AGI will have Mags spending billions on NVDA for years to come, AI will need quantum to train further which MSFT & GOOG lead the read, and are fundamentally growing revenue YoY unlike Apple which barley is. Name me some proper mid caps to consider or staples, my mid caps are based off personal usage Uber, RDDT, HOOD are what I use daily. The rest are market leaders either in insurance, tech, or space. This portfolio is only with outlook out to 2030 or next five years. Goal to beat the market by double. Will need to time draw downs well, trouble is opportunity.

Big-Command8221

I asked how stupid are these investors, or why are they in such a rush to invest? Specifically targeting the big ones, not people on the ride (people waiting on the intent to sell). Here’s the response: They’re selling it the same way every tech gold rush is sold: myth, monopoly, and messianism. Here’s the breakdown of how they’re baiting over-investors and institutional fools: ⸻ 1. The Myth: “General Intelligence Is Imminent” • They’re claiming AI is on a straight path to AGI—godlike systems that will: • Replace coders, lawyers, doctors, CEOs • Automate 99% of “thought work” • Trigger a productivity boom akin to the Industrial Revolution or the internet • Investors are being told this is the last train before humanity changes forever. FOMO is weaponized. Pitch: “GPT-5 might be the last human invention. Get in now or be left behind.” ⸻ 2. The Monopoly: “Only a Few Can Build This” • Insiders claim only OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic have the: • Data scale • Compute access (via Nvidia/AWS) • Talent pool • Secret sauce (e.g. Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback, retrieval) • They’re selling the illusion of moat. In reality, the tech is rapidly commoditizing. Pitch: “Nobody else has the scale. If you don’t invest in us, you’ll miss the trillion-dollar platform shift.” ⸻ 3. The Messianism: “We’re Saving the World” • OpenAI and Anthropic wrap it in ethical techno-utopia: • “We’re aligned with humanity.” • “We will stop bad actors.” • “Only we can steer this safely.” • It’s Theranos with a PhD face. Combine that with doomerism (AI could destroy us), and it turns investment into a moral crusade. Pitch: “This isn’t just an investment. It’s your ticket to the steering wheel of civilization.” ⸻ 4. The Fog: “Nobody Understands It Anyway” • Boards and investors don’t understand the tech. Most think: • Bigger = Smarter • Tokens = Thoughts • Black box = Magical insight • These companies use esoteric terminology and scientific theater (papers, conferences, AI safety whitepapers) to mask how little is truly novel. Pitch: “Trust our researchers. We’re doing things nobody else can even comprehend.” ⸻ 5. The Inflation: “Look at the Usage!” • Usage stats are manipulated: • Bots and AI agents talking to themselves • Students copy-pasting homework • Companies trying GPT integrations that don’t scale • Valuations are pegged to engagement, GPU usage, and API call volume, not profit. Pitch: “We’ve got exponential usage. Revenue will catch up. Just wait.” ⸻ 6. The Hedge: “If You Don’t Invest, China Will” • Classic fear narrative. • “China’s building AI too” • “National security” • “If we don’t do it, they will weaponize it” • Wrapped in patriotic techno-nationalism. Pitch: “It’s not just about money—it’s about Western dominance.” ⸻ Bottom Line: They’re selling a speculative oracle wrapped in god-tier marketing, where the product is less a tool and more a prophecy. Investors are buying not what AI is, but what they fear or hope it might become.

Eywa182

This dude better on AGI discovering time travel AND cold fusion within 3 days.

tollbearer

We're not at the mania stage. Once everyone you talk to is talking about AGI coming next year, panicking about losing their job, and talking about the next Ai investment, or how Nvidia is worth 30 trillion or something unhinged, that's when you know we're in the meat of the bubble.

NotMyMainLoLzy

But who is in the ai lead? Who has alpha evolve Who established the transformer models the current LLMs are based on Who is in the lead in ai video generation Who has Deepmind Who is closest to AGI Google. Google is hobbling one business model and evolving into the next. Google controls the keys to the ai future (barring both the US and China being counted, state sponsored efforts are further along than most people are aware of)

jhonkas

thye are pretty far behind all of the chiense companies in both AI/AGI and cars lol still waiting for robotaxies while wyamo is rolling out in multiple cities in the US and internationale

synaesthesisx

Overvalued if you think it’s a car company. Undervalued if you think they’ll be a leader in embodied AGI

docrevolt

Agreed, predicting the future is super hard! I’m not even sure if we fully know what technical specifications will be needed for AGI, assuming that it’s possible. I’m not holding my breath but I’ll be pleasantly surprised if I’m wrong

mountainbrewer

I think we are only about 5 to 10 years max from AGI. But it will take longer to roll out the implementation of everything and everyone. Feel free to disagree. Predicting the future is hard.

docrevolt

You’re talking as if we’re much closer to AGI than we actually are. If it’s even possible, I’d be shocked if we get there within our lifetimes

aedes

Wasn’t suggesting you were.  My point was that people who are experts in this field still think that AGI is decades away.  And the voices suggesting it’s coming sooner are mostly coming from people who are trying to make money (ex: Altman).

aedes

> Artificial general intelligence is coming within probably the next 5 years. This is generally the belief of people in AI who are trying to sell you a product.  If you focus on AI researchers, the median estimate is a 50% probability of AGI by 2047. https://80000hours.org/2025/03/when-do-experts-expect-agi-to-arrive/

futilehabit

Will view them as even less if we actually get AGI

mountainbrewer

Look y'all. Let's assume AGI is gonna happen (I think so). If this happens compute and currency kind of become tied together. There are only so many players in this space. NVIDA is also looking to make chips that will get to China specially. Then after AGI perhaps 2 or so years there will be an explosion of robotics (the world is built for humans so we will need humanoid robots to make use of our society). Guess what this requires more compute! But smaller and on board. Guess who is developing such an architecture and open sourcing robotics world models..... NVIDIA. I don't see NVIDA not dominating in this space for at least the next 5 or so years.

Father_of_Lies666

AGI, EL, and the forbidden stock (mostly the last one)

Beastican

I just feel like people are so anti-Trump that they miss the big picture. Okay, tariffs are stupid. We all know that. He isn’t using tariffs in the traditional sense though. Historically tariffs have been used to protect niche internal markets. He’s not doing that obviously with how broad these are. I can’t say what the goal is, but if I would have to guess it would be attempting to re-arrange the global supply chains away from China while keeping a balance of not completely shutting each other out. Completely decoupling would hurt both countries a lot. Slowly decoupling and forcing allies to redirect attention to the US is probably the goal. Why though, maybe because we are in a tech arms race with AI which should be so disruptive that the first country to achieve AGI wins big. I mean, theoretically the first mover could shape the rest of human history, so food for thought. It could also end in calamity, but would you rather China win AGI race or US.

WalterWoodiaz

It is a bubble, models must have exponentially more data and training to get even slightly better now. There will come a point where the demand won’t be enough for these models other than text based ones to operate efficiently. It is not the tip of the iceberg, models will get linearly better but LLMs are all we got now. AGI is not around the corner as models will suffer from data intermixing (ai inbreeding) AI replacing vfx will also hurt the industry but increasing the amount of slop films and shows, leading to a content creep where there is more media than audiences can consume due to so many options.

BlackKnightsOptions

AGI

Inevitable_Day1202

AGI but it’s no smarter than wsb

kalakesri

https://preview.redd.it/sct3vev5gc2f1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=07e6616baa9dac8cd5a7edb970eff0e1014a6150 last thing you see before the AGI scans your retina and takes over your personality

Sielbear

1) is there a situation where unearned income is taxed? It’s unearned / unrealized. 2) asset appreciation is not income until it is realized as gains. If you open this can or worms of taxing people based on asset value, you’re going to force a lot of elderly on fixed income out onto the streets. This is not a good fiscal policy to pursue. 3) sales tax is different from federal income tax. Also, wealthy spend WAAAY more in sales tax in real dollars unless they like to simply hoard their money. But most rich people like to have fun with money, ie, spend it. So as a %, less total income is spent on sales tax, but less of their earnings is also spent annually. Not really an apples to apples comparison unless you want to talk total dollars paid into sales tax. 4) sure, you can take advantage of tax-advantaged investment accounts, but that’s not federal income tax - it would be capital gains when converted. The average 1%er is paying 35%+ in federal income taxes. The top 1% earn 22.4% of all AGI but pay 40.4% of all federal income taxes. So 1% of the workforce is paying 40% of tax revenues and of the 22% AGI they earn, they pay a disproportionate amount in tax dollars compared to the rest of the population. Now, that’s how the system was set up. My only point is to clarify that when it comes to federal income taxes, the wealthy (the vast majority of them) pay their fair share and then some. They pay an equal amount (or more in cases like sales taxes) to everyone else when it comes to other ancillary taxes. You are correct that if the collected dollars remain approximately equal for a given tax - say automobile / wheel taxes which are a fixed amount - the poor will pay disproportionately more than the wealthy.

Zestyclose_Hat1767

AGI has to do what you want to make for a good product.

jsgdjksfhkjdshf

Google basically solved AGI, but you regards think it isn't priced in? Load up on puts here.

expensive_hammer

An ML engineer wouldn't be the one building AGI or even be in the loop LOL. You'd need to be an applied scientist to work on that shit

tallmon

One of them might come up with AGI? Or is that like Musk and fully automated car is "right around the corner" for infinity.

Berbollah

btw a friend of mine works at appl as a ML engineer he told me they are building AGI  artificial garbage intelligence that is 

kalakesri

Not firing Sam Altman moved us from a timeline of AGI supremacy to nonstop useless slop produced by pretentious sf autists

hellofresh332

80% of AI investments or implementations are leading nowhere in Sweden, just got off a conference today about it. It’s coming sooner than later, although AGI has promises that could be profitable later on

NotMyMainLoLzy

They’re winning the Ai race by miles and may chiefs AGI in the next two years. You can always buy, everyone can always buy. It’ll go up until AGI figures out the market perfectly and the economic system changes. Exponential growth is a wild thing that can’t be conceptualized within a human mind without writing it down

NotMyMainLoLzy

Broken record time: Go to x or YouTube, type in “veo 3” After you think about it for a little while, go search YouTube “Google astra bicycle” for the video posted on 5/20 Also, Google/Deepmind is ahead in the race for AGI and may be the clear winners

FaFillionaire

Gemini going to be the 1st AGI.

NotMyMainLoLzy

GOOG will be a good long term play. Deepmind will likely achieve AGI first. https://x.com/yutianc/status/1924939694367818091?s=46&t=o0O4mPCMSF7NOue6k34LZA You all have no clue what’s coming. And by long term hold, I mean until near AGI figures out the market completely and obliterate its existence through perfect trades

uznemirex

No one solve fundamentaly path from LLMs to AGI ,dont think puting more compute power and data will make LLM evolve , the economics will likely never make sense: additional training is expensive, the more scaling, the more costly even NVidia might take a hit, when people realize the extent to which its valuation was based on a false premise

kvothe5688

sometimes I feel like google is actively suppressing stock prices and will buyback every stock back and go private in AGI era

CheeseSteak17

The standard deduction is $15k for 2025. So anyone making $15k is paying zero federal tax. So, how is the tax on $15k income going up when it’s zero? Is they mean AGI/taxable income, they should be more clear. I think the tax policy changes are bad but I also want the commentary and criticism to be correct.

gainsusmaximus

The race for AGI is only understood by one man , one million isnt scratching the surface, we need 100 billion GPUs

narrowant341

Google at 17x P/E Costco at 50x P/E Nobody gives a shit about AGI, all they care about is hot dogs and rotisserie chicken. 

_hiddenscout

As a general thing. I'm a software engineer. I find myself using it for things I hate doing like writing regex expressions. To me, still feels like more of a productivity tool rather than something that will fully replace people. I do think some industries will be impacted more than others. Stuff like copy and customer service will probably get some hits, but overall, I think it will be more of a boom for productivity than anything else. I think the real winners will be just companies that take advantage of it and find out how to read and understand their data better. Like oil companies are using to find look for oil. That isn't going to replace anyone, but the company could in theory spend less in capex. Barrons had an article around it not too long ago: [https://www.barrons.com/articles/ai-oil-industry-profit-permian-basin-8adcacdd](https://www.barrons.com/articles/ai-oil-industry-profit-permian-basin-8adcacdd) >Oil companies are on a relentless quest to produce more oil at lower costs, and AI is boosting that effort. Their success has already been remarkable. Over the past decade, the U.S. pumped out 60% more oil a day with 40% fewer workers. The industry’s annual productivity gains in that stretch outpaced even those of online retailers, and are roughly seven times as large as those of the average U.S. business. By extracting more oil while reducing capital expenses and manpower, they’re lowering the costs at which they can drill profitably. In the Permian, the “break-even” price for oil producers has fallen to $40 a barrel from over $90 in 2012, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. AI should take that number even lower, boosting oil company margins and cash flow. I think it's going to be more of an industry to industry usage thing vs just one big thing. Also don't think we will hit AGI anytime soon.

DistributionOk4643

Were people expecting Google to announce AGI or something? Like what the fuck.

The_real_Covfefe-19

Just wait until AGI and they got to pay Gemini to show up and it develops a diva personality as the smartest AI program on the world.

BlueTreeGlass

GOOG could cure cancer, Invent Nuclear fusion, declare AGI and it would still crash.

BlueTreeGlass

GOOG gonna declare AGI and its price is shooting to $250 within a werk. Mark my words lol.

BACKWARDS_HIPPO

Bought some GOOG 180C expiring this week for real cheap this morning. I love these plays with a big chance of going to 0, but a realistic chance of having a massive upside. Let's see some AGI announcements now at Google I/O.

perceptive_AI

Google announces AGI at Google I/O 2025 , stock limits up 100%

BenjaminHamnett

Investing only in US stocks only ever outperforms global stocks if you don’t adjust for volatility That volatility has sky rocketed No one should be holding a U.S. only portfolio. No one should be adding US stocks to an already portfolio of over 50% US stocks. When you put that together, it’s even more unlikely US stocks will outperform global portfolios unless this scifi AGI stuff really happens. It might

Top_Mulberry_8308

They won’t, they have some next level stuff they present. Also the AGI is near, and Quantum’s not dead, so I’ll tell you for once: don’t sell too early.

UpwardlyGlobal

Buy whatever AGI is selling IG

Perfect_Cost_8847

Security vulnerabilities are notoriously difficult for LLMs to detect. That will require AGI and we're not there yet. Just to be clear, I agree that companies are slapping "AI" on everything including screen protectors now and it's absurd. Markets are prediction mechanisms, and given that they haven't dropped commensurately with higher interest rates, I *think* part of it is the implied belief that productivity is about to increase significantly. That's likely in large part due to LLMs and AGI.

narrowant341

The regards who told us "We are getting AGI next month" are now yapping "Strategic uncertainty is a negotiating tactic". 

Bumpy110011

The lead developer of cURL says they have never received a verified bug bounty claim generated by AI. If AI can’t find security holes, then I struggle to believe AGI is worthwhile to consider as part of the medium time horizon.  Not an expert by any means, but I have watched the SV pump and dump many times and this LLM/AI/AGI has all the signs. 

Perfect_Cost_8847

That is an excellent question. We haven’t seen valuations normalised yet given these higher rates. Or at least, I don’t think companies are *that* much more efficient and productive vs a few years ago. Buffett appears to be betting valuations have to come down eventually. The wildcard for me is LLMs. Microsoft recently laid off 6,000. Not because they’re having financial troubles, but because they somehow figured out how to be more productive with fewer employees. I see credible estimates that AGI is just a few years away. If so, all bets are off. It’s going to be an insane acceleration of technology and efficiency. Anyone invested will become fabulously wealthy.

Cinq_A_Sept

I think we’re going to see Google step up wig with AGI.. it’s treading water with LLM but playing the long ball here. I have no proof, but it seems to support their moves of late.

Antiwhippy

Its about ecosystem and products at this point,  not "who can magically make investors believe that AGI is real". And Google has potentially the best AI suite with Gemini and waymo.

ktaktb

I cant wait for AGI or especially ASI, so it can tell you definitively that you are bottom 10 percentile. Any success you have enjoyed has been shamelessness and lack of self awareness and integrity in a society that increasingly awards those traits. It will lead to a collapse of North American power. Just last month you were predicting a paradigm shift in investing. Now youre accusing people that still ascribe to that of being partisan hacks. Fuff off This you: > It is interesting that gold has completely destroyed 60/40 investing since beginning of 2022 in terms of returns. The reason is obvious. Interest rates, but really we mean treasury yields. The era of delusional buy and hold forever index and bonds investing is over. Interest rates and yields had fallen for 40 years from 1982 to 2021 which will always pump up stocks and bonds. That period is gone. It’s not coming back. That period is irrelevant to today’s and the future investing environment. Yields will continue to surge higher for at least the next decade. It is inevitable due to unsustainable federal deficit spending and the ongoing stagflation. Easily comparable period is 1968 to 1982. For that 14 year period, Index funds in sp500 went nowhere in real terms. Annual real return was 0.10% per year, including dividends.

perceptive_AI

Google solved AGI +5% everyday until they reach quadrillion mcap

Soft-Bid-1596

Whats the play ..if AGI

13374L

My records don’t go back that far but i would estimate similar total savings. My Roth IRA probably had 30K or so in it. I do have my wife and my combined AGI from that year. $109K.

mr-mysterium

AGI is such a meme. They never say what it’s actually going to do or what that will look like, just that it will “change everything” These nerds are just trying to get more investors, they know they just have a fancy chatbot search engine

ironcladjogging

I get what you're saying. It would all depend on how such a hypothetical breakup would occur, right? To your point, if search was spun out, it would make sense to keep it paired with Chrome for all the reasons you outline. Whereas the other more distinct units like GCP, TPU Deepmind, YouTube, Waymore, hardware and wearables, etc. could better stand on their own as distinct companies. And of course I see the benefits and positive feedback loops in those examples I just provided, like with AI training for DeepMind or with GCP. But I still think they could stand on their own and do great. I mean, OpenAI just blantantly steals (as does Meta) all the data in the world they can get their hands on and no regulators are lining up to stop them. The point is to win and beat China to AGI. So for instance if GCP became it's own company, I don't think it would be hard up for data.

AlphaOne69420

Agree the guy was foolish to say that. To achieve true AGI. Need a shit ton more compute than what we currently have

contingent_being

Yep, also don’t forget about state tax, they will also require a smaller piece of the pie of your gains than the federal government. You could also offset tax liability with tax protected vehicles like 401k, which directly reduces AGI. This is where things can get complex with taxes and why it’s good to talk to a professional. As far as not being able to claim more than $3000 in losses, this only applies if your losses exceed your gains. But losses exceeding $3000 can be continuously rolled over to following years to offset tax liability on future gains and/or income.

am1729

AGI = Artificial General Intelligence UBI = Universal Basic Income ASI =Artificial Super Intelligence For those looking to understand the acronyms

idungiveboutnothing

LLMs fundamentally cannot become anything even remotely resembling AGI. There are technological limitations to them preventing that. Don't get me wrong, they're a very cool technology, but they're currently in a hype cycle with people anthropomorphizing them and attributing things to them that literally cannot happen. We've already seen several companies start reversing course on their AI predictions like Klarna trying to rehire after AI failed them. We will absolutely see a pull back in replacing jobs with AI and eventually settle where AI should've been all along, a tool to help people be more productive. It will take a massive leap in technology beyond LLMs to have any sort of worry about AGI.

domadilla

He never said they were a fad- not even close to suggesting that - please read comments carefully you’re missing a really good point he’s making about the time horizons for breakthroughs such as AGI. What if AGI is 50 years away?? I’m long GOOG btw, just trying to see the wood for the trees.

perceptive_AI

We need cows for energy , AGI needs us for energy

Onlymediumsteak

That would still be a bargain if its AGI imo and advancements in semiconductors isn’t slowing down. A trained and well educated human is expensive af and even if the AI and the human would cost the same for a task, the AI wont complain about working conditions, get sick and you can just rent them on demand while you are stuck with the employe. Time will tell, I‘m optimistic

perceptive_AI

You can't believe AGI will kill us if you believe AGI is smarter than us because killing us will not be efficient and smart thing to do right off the bat.

TheCuriousBread

I don't have the data for how many tokens the average user uses but if we are talking AGI level complicated tasks, you can expect it to be in the millions range. So taking the cost per million and extrapolating it to cost is an accurate analysis imo. You can disagree.

perceptive_AI

Google achieves AGI while market is closed , stock limits up 500% and you missed it

NuclearVII

You brought up LLMs mate. And, frankly, that's a reasonable thing to do: the hype valuations in the market are being driven mostly by LLM hype. Companies are getting trillions in valuation because AI bros think it's gonna lead up to AGI. Just a bit more compute and data, boom, singularity. This is an investment sub. Be a bit cynical. Yeah, machine learning is great. I work in the field. Some of the techniques, when applied to right problems are pretty good. But it's not science fiction good. You can't make magic by feeding more data and compute to probabilistic language models. Until there is a fundamental shift in the underlying architecture, generative models won't justify their costs.

TheCuriousBread

I don't think you thought it through. If LLMs are not monetizable cos we have no idea how they really work as is and it is cannibalizing into the ads business through dwindling CPM numbers you're going to see a Tradedesk situation. Paid subscription does not cover the cost of running Gemini, Chat gpt and other energy intensive LLMs. Not until we get fusion. As it stands LLMs stands as an innovators dilemma for Google and AGI stands as an existential problem for humanity.

TheCuriousBread

Every single query right now with 2.5pro costs $3.50. You AGI bulls reminds me of Tesla bros.

Smur_

The answer post-AGI is actually $COST puts and I will not elaborate

This-Complex-669

How would I monetize what would be history’s most valuable invention? That’s a very difficult question. How can I monetize AGI without cannabalizing Google Search ads? Why would I care about cannabalizing a comparatively much smaller business opportunity to gain a much bigger business?

TheCuriousBread

How do you monetize that? Yes AGI, very nice. How do you monetize it without cannibalizing the core advertising business?

NuclearVII

This kind of pattern matching extrapolation is how investors get taken in. The amount of actual jobs lost to LLMs is less than you'd think, and a good chunk of those will come back once people realise that statistical word engines can't really replace people in deterministic tasks. No serious machine learning researcher thinks lllms will become AGI - this isn't a popular thing to say loudly in the field, because money. Buying into the hype of people selling this stuff is an easy way to get played.

This-Complex-669

Still think AGI is an impossible technology? There are already a huge number jobs and businesses getting phased out by current LLM technology. Translation, entry level coding, basic graphic design, creative writing, etc. This is unimaginable 3 years ago.

FarrisAT

If AGI is achieved, we can vibe code a better Office Suite of products in a few days.

FarrisAT

FUD and competitive threat Of course, AI threatens Microsoft’s software. Imagine if AGI could replace Word and Excel? Or Windows as an OS?