AGI

Snorlaxative9

bro AGI is just around the corner bro. Another trillion and we'll have it bro.

Initial_Ad_9250

AGI - Artificial Gooner Intelligence

Same_Beautiful9174

Maybe we are on the brink of a bubble bursting, but perhaps AGI will change history— I'm hesitating whether to close my position.

OkCar7264

Uh, well, the enormous losses, the comical spending, Sam Altman literally saying they will have to build an AGI that will tell them how to make money, the mediocre product on the field, and the other nonsensical religious bullshit is probably the driving force behind people starting to think it's crap. We're years in and Facebook is showing me Sora videos of fat people being stuck in doors. World shattering stuff.

bellahamface

OpenAI to use fake meat along with GPU’s to achieve AGI.

Dr_Dick_Dastardly

Final nail in the AGI/revolutionary technology coffin was when the AI companies started releasing the slop video apps and announcing "we'll let it make porn soon." It's still useful, but people will start to realize a lot of what they've been hearing from the AI industry over the past three years was mostly marketing hype or what they hoped it would do in the future.

Nefarious_AI_Agent

I have achieved AGI. Ask me anything

SingularityCentral

They wouldn't be buying swaps if they were caught up in the irrational hype train. I could be wrong. But I don't think I am. Not a single company that creates LLM's has been able to turn a profit with them yet, despite jamming them into every tech product they can think of. It might just be true that OpenAI sparked an arms race by releasing ChatGPT on 2023 and that arms race came too soon for the tech to live up the hype. Or it might be that the tech is just not going to ever live up the hype and that LLM's will never be able to reach the promised land of reliable AGI. What I see is that these companies are burning cash faster than people could shovel it into a blast furnace and planning to accelerate that rate with no clear path to profit.

RipOk74

Agreed. I've been using neural networks and specialised AI for over a decade (on and off) and it can do some really amazing stuff. But the LLMs are not going to become the AGI that will solve all our issues. So the valuation of those companies is mostly hot air IMO.

apmspammer

Companies can't make a profit from current AI models either. The whole industry is a bet on the idea that AI will improve and eventually we will get AGI.

rugerduke5

you sure you don't make too much for a Roth IRA? Max is AGI of 150-160k for a single filer, married is236-246k. You would probably benefit more from a Traditional IRA for the tax deduction, although wouldn't be much. On a side note, better to pay off all debt and hav 6mo the other emergency fund before investing this much

AbbreviationsKnown24

We don't even know what AGI would look like, or what tech it would take to get there. LLMs don't seem to be the path to AGI, so it's difficult to tell if we're actually any closer to it today than we were 20 years ago. It may happen next year, it may happen 200 years from now, or it may not happen at all. If it doesn't happen very soon, all this money and energy spent on data centers will go to waste because this type of tech ages pretty quickly. 

penultimateinsight

Ah yes. It's so magical that even the ones that giant Fortune 500 companies are spending billions on are seeing zero return on. But the government has quantum AGI right?

PsychologicalWall192

Imo, what's driving the AI bubble is the massive potential upside that the promise of AGI incarnates. If a company gets there the extent of the upside is even hard to grasp, you can't be passing on the chance to own a bit of what could be tommorow's main supplier of intelligence and the hardware it would run on. Unless we have indications that we don't have a way to achieve AGI in the near future or interest rates rise massively, I bet the money will keep pouring in.

sssanguine

All AI risk is with OpenAI aka in the private sector. High tech had fantastic businesses before LLMs, and if they disappeared tomorrow they would still print cash. The real risk on the public market side is for any small or mid cap that uses OpenAI’s API. Their API right now is stupidly cheap because VCs are picking up the tab. This won’t continue. Either OpenAI gets to AGI by ~2027, or they don’t, and they won’t. When they don’t, AGI hype dies, Sam Altman is out, they bring in someone whose sole job is to recoup investor money, & overnight their API pricing jumps 5x. Further this isn’t an Uber “the business model is there we just need to get to a certain scale” type of situation because sometime in 2024 training data size and model quality plateaued. And on the financial side time complexity and compute cost scale non-linearly aka models can’t get cheaper and get better. When you put all this together you see that the only ones at risk in a post subsidized-LLM world are small and mid cap companies that jumped on the hype train, and incorporated LLMs into their product.

PieSufficient9250

\^ wow maybe AGI is further away than I thought

kirkegaarr

You really don't need AGI though for this to be a transformative technology

Muklucky

It's hilarious that there are people out there so phenomenally retarded that they believe AGI is anywhere near. None of the current "AI" products are even capable of evolving towards AGI

PieSufficient9250

We are talking about multiple trillions of dollars in valuations and cap ex. We’re multiple years into this and the answer is still “x ray scanning” which still requires a human in the loop and was the same answer multiple years ago. Things are plateauing, they are selling us on “curing cancer” which is offensive, and not at all behaving like AGI is around the corner or even a possibility

NoFutureIn21Century

They're betting on the law of large numbers. AGI absolutely has zero chance to be born in a lab where a couple of tens of thousands of experts work on it. But show the promise of AI to a couple of billion people and eventually there'll be a regard that'll say: this sucks. I can do it better! And then go and do it.

_WeDoNotSow_

Well let me ask you the same question as the other guy So you really think AGI is not achievable? surely it has to be achieved one day? Is there something you think would need to happen for it to be achieved? Or is there something that is stopping tech companies from achieving it currently?

_WeDoNotSow_

So you really think AGI is not achievable? I know you said "at this point"....but surely it has to be achieved one day? Is there something you think would need to happen for it to be achieved? Or is there something that is stopping tech companies from achieving it currently?

Salty-Bid1597

AGI is science fiction at this point (much like colonies on mars and the Tesla roadster).  Current AI is a mashup algo that can only riff on stuff it's seen before. Real human intelligence doesn't need to parse the entire coda of human learning to understand things and it runs on a couple of Watts a day. Anyone who has had children will realise this. They're barking up the wrong tree.

IllustriousCommon5

True, even Anthropic posted it’s not at that level yet. They tried fully automating a vending machine business and it didn’t work out: https://www.anthropic.com/research/project-vend-1 That doesn’t mean in the future though it won’t. I’ve had that link thrown at me recently as evidence LLMs will never reach AGI as if that made any sense.

Left_Sun_3748

AGI is not happening with the current AI path we are down. And we have sort of plateaued on our current path.

nimshwe

That is not how it works, are you dense? The burden of proof lies on the one who makes claims that cannot be substantiated by scientific evidence, and saying "this can create AGI" is something that is not substantiated by scientific evidence because the building blocks for intelligence are not what is being currently done by LLMs I'm not trying to teach you basic semantics after this comment, read a fucking book lmao

IllustriousCommon5

Reddit moment. You just had to needlessly include the snark, right? This just leads to being r/confidentlyincorrect most of the time. Regardless, the burden of proof in this conversation is on the person making the claim that LLMs wont achieve AGI. The investors already have made their decision to invest. Telling them to justify it now makes no sense.

IllustriousCommon5

That’s not a very apt comparison. AGI doesn’t have to be god. It just has to do things generally. You’re thinking of the r/singularity

IllustriousCommon5

Modern AI is basically Gen AI. But that’s what I mean. If LLMs are provably not the path to AGI then we’d have stopped putting so much money into it by now. Zuck is the perfect example of this. He’s making a bet, that’s his job. He’d refocus if there was a proof it isn’t going to work, just like he did with Metaverse.

wifestalksthisuser

I never said that though? I said that they are saying that Gen AI specifically is not going to reach/become AGI and that for AGI to happen some entirely different tech/arch is needed. Zuck sank close to 150B$ into the metaverse no one wanted to use, so I don't know if he's the guy to follow here. Look, I myself use Gen AI daily and I build and sell this stuff to enterprises so I am not saying its useless. But its use and value is nowhere near where it should be if it'd truly be able to change the world

Glock7enteen

So over the weekend, Karpathy, one of the biggest names in AI bluntly said in an interview that it’s a bubble and how AGI is still 10 years away, LLMs have largely peaked. That same day OpenAI was caught lying about a development published a few days earlier, claiming their model made scientific advancements by solving problems on Erdos. In reality they just found human-written answers that hadn’t been uploaded to the site yet Google’s own AI lead called them out on X and said “this is embarrassing” So naturally AI is going to pump tomorrow lmao

IllustriousCommon5

I’m saying that if one of your PhD friends had proof that modern AI will never reach AGI, then they would obviously publish the proof, then companies would stop making more investments in it. Mark Zuckerberg said in an interview himself that this is the specific bet he’s taking by massively increasing AI capex.

wifestalksthisuser

How can it be "entirely unproven" already if AGI very clearly isn't a thing right now? Also, if bubbles were rational they wouldn't be bubbles, the fact that is hasn't popped yet doesn't mean anything

dickinguppanneystock

A **humanoid** is basically a **robot that looks and moves like a human**. I believe the brain of a humanoid will be powered by AGI. What’s left is a robotic body that can move freely with **human-like bipedal walking**.

wifestalksthisuser

Literally every single person I know who's worked in the space for 15+ years - many of which hold PhD's in the area - say GenAI is cool for a few specific areas but won't ever be the foundation of AGI/ASI and will absolutely dissappoint everyone who thinks it'll change the world.

Independent_Page_220

It’s not about the technology. It’s about the crazy amount of money burned on it. Even if AGI is achieved, maybe there’s no way they get their money back. On the other hand, more and more people are trying ChatGPT, and after the initial amazement, they see that it still fails in basic tasks. So maybe, just maybe, we could have just created a very expensive meme generator.

sailortyx56

Elmo is about to achieve AGI for the 10th time in 1 year.

AegonTheMeh

Elon: > My estimate of the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising He's not even trying anymore. Just phoning it in. Sad!

aedes

There’s a number of things going on.  A few years ago now, a paper came out in machine-learning land that suggested (with a fair amount of hand waving) that AI capabilities would continue to scale exponentially with increased processing power. Basically Moores Law for AI.  A lot of powerful people drank this Koolaid, and the implication of this belief was that AGI and super intelligence and the ability to do anything really was only a few years away. And that if you didn’t catch this train now; you’d be left behind forever.  This lead to people throwing huge sums of money at AI.  In the past year or so, we’ve come to realize that this isn’t what’s going to happen. Both because of real-world results, and more recent ML literature.  Transformer abilities do not continue to scale exponentially; if anything, some problematic behaviours seem to get worse at larger scale. In addition, things like hallucinations seem to be a fundamental feature of the technology.  Instead of being at the start of a rocket taking us to an unimaginable future of excess and ease… we are probably already basically at the plateau of what the technology is capable of.  And concerningly… no one is making money off these current capabilities.  Microsoft et al are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on this stuff, and are only making 1-5% revenue off those expenses.  These big companies seem to realize this as well, and have started panicking a bit. You have Microsoft removing AI-specific revenue from their quarterly reports, and throwing Copilot at everything to see what sticks. Or look at OpenAIs actions. In desperation, these companies are announcing these circular deals to try and buy themselves just a bit more time… because they have nothing and are running on fumes at this point.  The sentinel events here were some of the ML papers that came out earlier this year, the failure of ChatGPT 5, the failure of agentic AI in general, the failure of LLMs to signficantly improve productivity in real life (this data coming out in the last 6-12mo as well) implementations, and the persistent lack of revenue off capex on AI projects. This is all stuff that’s come to the surface largely in the past 6months. Hence why the tone has changed so much.  **TLDR**: a few years ago people thought Moores Law would apply to AI and got overexcited about that possibility, spending hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollar chasing a pipe dream. When it turned out that wouldn’t be the case and the technology had already largely reached a plateau, people are starting to panic. 

reveil

Because the math doe not math. AI companies are spending a fortune on hardware and electricity and don't have revenue to back it up. They are selling services at a major loss and coasting on VC money hoping that a breakthrough will magically create a mythical AGI to bring them to explosive profitability. Thing is things are starting to plateau. Models are not getting much better despite hardware advancement. There are voices of experts that the LLMs as a technology may be a stopgap and ultimately dead end. What would replace LLMs is just a research topic but one thing clear is that it would require exponentially more hardware and electricity. All this means there is no guarantee AI companies will ever get profitable. In a gold rush the one selling shovels profits the most though. And Nvidia is now the most valuable company on the planet. Nvidia though knows this is fragile and is spending significant resources to be able to pivot from pure AI hardware to robotics in the not so far future.

LowQualitySpiderman

then you might be listening to the wrong people... we know about AGI that it's possible because nature has already created it, it just needs to be copied, but to say that it would be possible in two years is quite far-fetched... it's hard to say how long it will take, but the current pace of development is already impressive...

Redd411

I was told to expect AGI Geezus.. but now it's '2 more years and few more billions.. and small nuclear reactors to power it'... amazing technology?? ..only thing amazing is Jensens profits by surfing that hype wave

pragmojo

I'm sure Sora just started spitting out Pikachu and South Park characters because that's an emergent behavior of AGI right?

FullCopy

Yeah. They need all the help they can get to build that AGI thing.

Salty-Bid1597

Imagine thinking you could breed an AGI without eyes and ears. jfc, the gold standard test for self awareness involves a mirror...

Orange_Codex

Don't be fooled by the 'AI bubble' fears. Sure, present AI is hardly AI at all, and AGI may not exist - but the amount of effort poured in will surely lead to value-creation on a massive scale.

ilcasdy

The framework powering all the current AIs literally cannot become AGI. The most important part of your statement is “IF.” And there’s no reason to believe it is. It’s like saying if time travel is possible you can just throw a bunch of money at it and we will get it. From what I’ve seen, most experts expect incremental improvement.

sailortyx56

OpenAI and other AI companies- 2022: AGI 2023: AGI 2024: AGI 2025: Porn and ads

AggravatingGold6421

I just disagree. I think if AGI is possible it will be accomplished within 20 years with the amount of resources being thrown at it right now. If not with LLM’s with other frameworks. It’s basically humanities main tech focus right now. And the experts agree with that assessment. Do you have credentials or experience in the field? How are you so confident AGI isn’t going to happen? I don’t have any experience so I defer to the expert surveys.

Thyandar

It cannot become AGI, which is the myth it's sold on. The companies in the bubble are under a huge pressure to build expensive infrastructure to support their models, something the dot com bubblers never had to deal with. So spectacular costs to speculate on growth. And when it comes to that the companies have crap conversion rates and none of them actually make any fucking money from it. If they were, you bet we would hear about it. Sussy image on demand, delirious videos, inconsistent summary or translation, sycophantic and incoherent personal assistants. None of these things are indispensable to business or going to sell for the money that it has cost to get this far, it's sold on a dream that it'll enable AGI which it simply cannot. Improvement was huge early on but that rate has slowed to the point that improvements from the latest versions of GAI have been vanishingly incremental or regressive. You are huffing the copium bro.

TedRabbit

To prove my claim you just need to Google AGI and see that a consistent definition is closed everywhere. Be mad all you want but this is pretty relevant to understanding where we are in the AI bubble/boom.

ACiD_80

Except they nearly all have a different definition of what AGI means. Some even say we are already there.

NotMyMainLoLzy

Reversal red. Think about this, if China actually participates in a trade wars this time around instead of staying silent, how fucked would the American consumer be around…say the holiday season? Additionally, with the competition to achieve AGI first, any international back and forth will result in the AI bubble popping sooner as the slim margins will be kept to the real players in the game and NOT those sipping from the overflow of success. Be careful

eldragon225

I get the skepticism. There’s definitely hype. But writing off every leading researcher’s timeline because they work in industry is like saying climate scientists can’t be trusted because their labs get funding. Incentives don’t erase expertise, especially when competing labs like OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, Google, xAI, and Meta all independently expect AGI within a decade. It’s not just adding layers anymore. We’ve moved from static pattern completers to systems with reasoning scaffolds, memory, tool use, multimodal grounding, and process-supervised thinking. That’s a genuine shift in how these models work. Saying there are no good ideas ignores active research on world models, neurosymbolic reasoning, and self training loops, all of which are paths toward real understanding. The odds that every frontier researcher is lying or delusional are close to zero. More likely, they’re seeing early signs of something transformative that the public just hasn’t caught up to yet.

skycake10

The people you quote are the people with all the financial incentive to make everyone believe AGI is less than 10 years away and have also been lying about their models' capabilities this entire time. Bluntly, I think they're either lying to us or lying to themselves. >Dismissing that progress because today’s systems have limits is like saying powered flight was impossible because the Wright Flyer couldn’t cross the Atlantic. It's like saying without significant shifts in how things are done a transatlantic flight couldn't be done. That was true then and I think it's true of AI now. Without a fundamental shift in how we conceive of models I just don't believe what you're talking about is possible. I also don't think anyone has any good ideas of how to do that, because all the current "reasoning" is just putting another layer on top of existing LLMs.

eldragon225

I get where you’re coming from. Today’s LLMs clearly have real limitations. They don’t truly understand, reason, or self-improve the way humans do. But writing off the current trajectory is like ignoring 99 percent of climate scientists because you don’t like what their data suggests. Nearly every major AI leader, including Sam Altman from OpenAI, Demis Hassabis from DeepMind, Dario Amodei from Anthropic, and Google’s leadership, believe AGI is likely less than ten years away. These aren’t random commentators. They’re the people actually building the systems and seeing what’s emerging behind the scenes. When all of them independently converge on similar timelines, it’s worth paying attention. You’re right that LLMs alone won’t get us all the way there. But they’re becoming the foundation of something larger. The next wave is combining them with reasoning modules, long-term memory, multimodal inputs, and real-world feedback. That starts to look a lot more like learning than simple pattern completion. Think of current LLMs as the language cortex of an artificial brain. They’re not AGI yet, but they’re laying the wiring that could make it possible. Dismissing that progress because today’s systems have limits is like saying powered flight was impossible because the Wright Flyer couldn’t cross the Atlantic.

Brokenandburnt

That's only if the software will be used correctly, to increase productivity _long--term_. The current capitalistic climate speaks heavily against this. The big movers aren't spending this cash to get more out of their workforce without burning them out. They are, and have been open about, that they wish to replace as much of the workforce as possible. And it'll be expensive. Currently AI queries are heavily subsidized both to boost growth and collect data.\ When/if that phase ends the costs will skyrocket. And as a last barrier is the immense amounts of energy consumed. Both power generation and transfer needs massive upgrades if the lofty promises are to be realized. Let's not even talk about how consumer spending will plummet when unemployment suddenly shoots up to 10, 15 or even higher of a %. Granted, the US has a way more ruthless corporate environment then the rest of the world. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays out in the end. But cracks are forming in the economy. Household and corporate debt is high, bank liquidity is low, the private debt market is all but tapped out. The holy grail is AGI, but no company is even remotely close to it. Nor do they have a path to it either. All this said though, I believe this tech craze won't pop or fizzle out on it's own. It'll take a black swan of one form or the other.

BravoXray

Unless the Mag 7 at any given time start paying the American people it ain’t going to matter. Right now it’s just making a few thousand executives & investors wildly rich. (I know we need more cloud compute infrastructure but I’m no longer sure what the AI they’re chasing now is about. If it’s AGI and they have some monster locked in a basement then I’d rather they stop.)

Environmental_Box748

I mean when these AI companies are frivolously stating AGI will be here in a few years.... when we have no idea how intelligence even works.

kalakesri

Sorry feeling the AGI wasn’t profitable and we pivoted to hentai doomscrolling

phone_deviceban

Quantum is 20-50 years away. So is AGI, but the difference is that AI is already useful and adding value.

frosteeze

I don't think they need to solve that problem. I mean, that's the thing right. DeepSeek never really achieved AGI or is any different than ChatGPT. Maybe even worse. But it's still cheaper and it's still made. They just need a product and announce "we made quantum cheap." Hell, they can even take a page and just lie.

hoopaholik91

But then AGI just replaces Jensen and does his job better for cheaper. I don't get it.

crazier_ed

Nvda has hopes their moat holds long enough to see the AGI Who knows...

CourageThick2887

It’ll pop when AGI is a thing. Nobody will have money to spend and that will unwind the stock market like nobody’s business. I’ve heard it said that the top 10% of earners make the economy go around. Well 90% of nothing is unfortunately nothing. Mortgages won’t be paid, credit cards, loans etc, etc. it will be worse than ‘08 and faster I do believe because it will create a series of shocks if not outright panic in the markets. I think this could be averted with UBI, but most likely won’t because god forbid someone gets a handout from the government for sitting on their ass. CEO’s are salivating at the thought of cutting headcount while increasing productivity. It’s their wet dream. We are truly fucked - enjoy it while you can.

LeadershipSecure1664

AGI is unattainable and they slowly letting that dream go 🤡

FawningDeer37

We went from “AGI soon” to “OpenAIPorn” real quick.

parallelogramm3r

They are trying to distract the US from making progress in the AI arms race. All of it is a distraction because it’s game over once a nation achieves AGI.

olrg

In order to be able to claim $60b as charitable donations, he would need to have AGI of $180 billion since there’s a deduction cap. Dude publicly pledged to give away 99% of his wealth in his lifetime and has been extremely vocal about the need for high earners to pay more taxes and there are still people thinking he’s donating his fortune to get write offs.

cupofchupachups

No, it doesn't. Those are meaningless benchmarks. They do this time and time again in all the industries and people fall for it. Real world performance isn't good.  https://www.worksinprogress.news/p/why-ai-isnt-replacing-radiologists?hide_intro_popup=true I'm not confused about what AI is. I know that ML has been powering algorithmic suggestions and helping parse massive amounts of data. But that's not what this build out is about. It's for LLMs, and attempting to reach AGI. Nobody is spending $500B to have better suggestions on Netflix. 

Affectionate-Panic-1

I believe AI is like the start of the internet. It might be a little overhyped with the AGI claims, but it is a very powerful tool

DueHousing

Just 1 more trillion for OpenAI we’ll have AGI I promise bro

DueHousing

“Just $3 trillion more bro, I can get you AGI trust me bro”

Mindless-Bug-8397

ChatGPT own analysis on Open AI deals OpenAI’s $300 B+ valuation looks detached from reality. Its market share is slipping as Google (Gemini), Meta (Llama 3), Anthropic (Claude 3.5), and Chinese AI firms erode dominance. ChatGPT growth has stalled, and enterprise users increasingly prefer cheaper or open-source options. Reported revenues (~$12 B annualized) are inflated by credits and commitments, while compute and infrastructure costs remain massive, leaving little profit. High-profile “deals” with Nvidia, SoftBank, and Broadcom are largely optics and supply pre-purchases, not genuine cash inflows. OpenAI’s moat is thin—its models, GPUs, and APIs are now replicable. The CEO’s bold “AGI” and chip-supercomputer announcements sustain hype, not fundamentals. In truth, OpenAI runs on storytelling, investor FOMO, and strategic signaling rather than proven, profitable business growth—making its current valuation hard to justify amid intensifying global competition and rising operational burn.

UnexpectedFisting

>What the market is banking on is AGI, not LLMs that learn patterns. I work in tech and I can tell it’s smoke screens. Huh? The market is not banking on AGI. AGI is the eventual holy grail obviously, but the immediate term investments are all going into agentic AI solutions and tooling. You work in tech but you're unaware of Cursor, Cline, Roo, and others? Most companies I know of or have friends that actually work there (Capital One, Bain Capital, Klarna, Experian, Amazon, Booz Allen, McDonalds, Walmart, etc.) all have agentic solutions already in place and make it a point that every developer/manager/product/marketing person gets a license to their implemented tooling (Cursor, ChatGPT, Claude, Cline, Roo, CoPilot, etc.). Cursor, Claude, ChatGPT, and CoPilot all have agentic modalities that allow you automate things like bug fixes, MR/PR's, pipelines, testing, etc. etc. Hell we have contracts that mandate AI/LLM usage to speed up productivity, it's already being built into client agreements. These and many other companies all have contracts with various AI companies, Glean AI being another one I mentioned that's already implemented at private equity and finance firms. >When it will be useful is when it surfaces among the graves of all the ai startups. It's already useful, you're just not paying attention or misinformed. There are numerous companies that have implemented it or sell services and have seen large profit/revenue growth. Azure & other cloud services grew **39% YoY**, and Azure **surpassed $75B** annual revenue. They had the largest quarter of Copilot adds since launch and a 100k-seat Copilot rollout at Barclays. **Verizon** rolled out a Gemini-based assistant to 28,000 support reps and average chat time fell and sales through service reps climbed about **40%** after the full rollout. **United Airlines** already uses voice and chat flows that now automate roughly **31%** of flight-cancellation requests and **64%** of wheelchair requests. **Duolingo** saw a record +41% YOY revenue growth along with record profitability due heavily in part to their AI Max subscription platform along with falling costs in their AI tooling. Mind you, there are others, like Palantir that I won't even touch because we all know about them [**https://www.reuters.com/technology/verizon-says-google-ai-customer-service-agents-has-led-sales-jump-2025-04-09/?utm\_source=chatgpt.com**](https://www.reuters.com/technology/verizon-says-google-ai-customer-service-agents-has-led-sales-jump-2025-04-09/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) [https://www.reuters.com/business/duolingo-raises-2025-revenue-forecast-ai-tools-boost-user-engagement-2025-08-06/?utm\_source=chatgpt.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/duolingo-raises-2025-revenue-forecast-ai-tools-boost-user-engagement-2025-08-06/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) [https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/microsoft-reaches-4-trillion-valuation-after-solid-results-2025-07-31/?utm\_source=chatgpt.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/microsoft-reaches-4-trillion-valuation-after-solid-results-2025-07-31/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)

TheCollegeIntern

Again, I didn’t see certain sectors won’t be impacted. I named a sector that would be. You named one. What the market is banking on is AGI, not LLMs that learn patterns. I work in tech and I can tell it’s smoke screens. Vendors aren’t selling real AI solutions just yet. OpenAI is bleeding money and doesn’t know how to monetize AI yet. This isn’t to say AI won’t be around. It will be . Some sectors will be impacted. Cashiers and support I’m sure but overall it will not justify the cost for people to buy it is all I’m saying. When it will be useful is when it surfaces among the graves of all the ai startups

EveryPassage

You know the tax efficiency is terrible right? Under current law, starting in 2026 you can only deduct 90% of gambling losses and only if you itemize. On top of that income is ordinary income. And even if they remove the 90% limit, having $100k in gambling winnings and $100k in gambling losses is WORSE than 100k in stock gains and 100k in stock losses. Because gambling gross gains increase AGI and thus you could lose access to certain deductions/credits. That is way way worse than stocks.

sonofalando

Businesses levering up in debt for a product that will never reach AGI is certainly not a bubble 👀👌

FrostyParking

1929 lead to the depression, but 2025/6 will be a worse situation given the tangled weave between "the market" and the economy. And that the market isn't reflecting the economy in reality anymore. When the AI bubble bursts, it won't be just like the dot com bubble. The overly optimistic view of AI and it's economic impact will never be realised as AI itself is a tool, a commodity. It doesn't add value beyond efficiency. And AGI isn't close to real world deployable. For this mania to make sense it has to make dollars..... And it most definitely doesn't make and will never make money to the levels the market has it priced at now.

VoidMageZero

TSLA is actually profitable, they have a P/E. OpenAI is going to make UBER's IPO look small. Basically I think OpenAI needs to create AGI to make sense, then yeah it becomes worth a trillion or more. If the chatbots only stay around where they are now then it will collapse.

NuclearVII

It will not. None of the current research has a chance in hell of resulting in AGI. What then?

rackoblack

Missing some key variables, here. Depends on how much you have elsewhere. Is it just the IRAs? You don't say how old you are, I'll assume 58 (where we retired). You also don't say if you're single or MFJ. Why are you paying a FA to do the IRA and not the whole thing? Does he give advice on how to handle the funds he doesn't handle? If not, you're just throwing money away - that's exactly what you need help with. Assuming you have about the same in other retirement funds, and that those will also be taxed as you take distributions, you should (have) retire(d) early enough to start spending down the AAPL and NVDA aggressively for a few years. Certainly book LTCG all the way up to the top of your 0% bracket, but you've got a lot so you probably ought to book some at 15% LTCG too. For MFJ, the 0% caps out at around 230k with std. deduction, but remember that's your AGI, so any pension or dividend or interest coming in will eat into that. As far as what to put it in (after using what you need for expenses), just invest as you normally do, presumably an equity index fund with maybe a 10-20% bond allocation.

beepos

Sam Altman just needs another $100 billion for AGI. Please.

CaptchaCrunch

This is so funny. OpenAI knows it can't deliver on AGI so they're making themselves too big to fail ASAP

TheCollegeIntern

It's all smoke screen. These tools can help with productivity but they're still tools. Wallstree is banking on agent less AI that can replace workers. People really think AGI is coming when all AI is an LLM that doesn't know right from wrong and just regurgitates what it finds to be popular info to be the most accurate. With this current implementation of AI I'm sure many industries are already impacted, graphic designers to name one but the majority of industries are probably not seeing any profit any real effects.

phase_space_herbert

AI progress at the expense of safety when GPT-4o ranks the value of one Chinese or Indian life equal to \~20 Americans. I wonder what liberating humanity looks like for AGI and what step is nuking the US

ReftLight

You haven't noticed? This literally won't crash until the AGI dream of it happening sooner than later dies.

Impossible_Menu9131

I think it’s called safe harbor exception https://www.irs.gov/payments/underpayment-of-estimated-tax-by-individuals-penalty Pasting some in from the IRS link, but please read yourself. Avoid a penalty You may avoid the Underpayment of Estimated Tax by Individuals Penalty if: Your filed tax return shows you owe less than $1,000 or You paid at least 90% of the tax shown on the return for the taxable year or 100% of the tax shown on the return for the prior year, whichever amount is less. If your adjusted gross income (AGI) for 2023 was more than $150,000 ($75,000 if your filing status for 2024 is married filing separately), substitute 110% for 100%.

Impressive_Ad_1675

I don’t think it will pop I believe the race to AGI has started and it will quickly turn a race to ASI after that.

MarginCalledManager

Dear dumb fuck, the 110% for is single filer AGI above $150,000, which almost nobody here. The estimated tax prepayment rule is required to be paid if your income difference will require you to pay $1,000 or more in taxes. Every regard here who makes more than about $5,000 will fall into this category. Go back to sleep and stop giving the wrong advice to people. Using Google AI search results is never something you should do.

Swastik496

No it doesn’t. You only need to pre pay taxes for 100 or 110% of last years income(depending on AGI) or 90% of this year’s income. Whichever is lower. So assuming your income at your main job went up, you don’t have to make tax pre payments.

FireAndInk

Yeah, AI is a real technology BUT there is so many companies out there, especially on the software side of it, that just get buttered up because they develop something, anything or make a big contract with another AI company. We had years of this and have yet to see any of the miracle productivity gains they promised yesterday. I am not saying there is no value in AI, there definitely is, but what is there right now doesn‘t justify the insane money that’s pumped into it. But hey AGI is always just 6mo away right? 

killer_unkill

Or AGI becomes syknet 

foo-bar-nlogn-100

No AGI. Just slop like howling castle image generator and sora 2 video slop. They spent 500B on an amazing meme generator instead of solving climate change or building houses for Gen Z.

disparue

AI bubble pops if they don't develop AGI or people decide AGI isn't possible.

redbluemmoomin

An LLM is not AGI no matter what Altman says.

Round-Builder-9517

If they are 5-8 years behind then it’s a moot point… the US would already achieve AGI by then

CarrierAreArrived

lots of AI companies like who? All the ones that could potentially get to AGI or are providing the hardware for those trying to achieve AGI are already mag7, established highly profitable companies, or OpenAI/Anthropic.

therealjerseytom

The entire economy! John Deere and Lululemon are betting on AGI!

Alternate_Flurry

It is not WHOLLY based on AGI, but a good % of the valuation multipliers are. The economy is fragile. but the US dollar is the reserve currency, and the US economy is one of the largest in the world. If they get a recession, everyone does. Then money flows into the reserve currency and US treasuries, the deficit reverses, and lower interest rates reverse the appalling surge in debt among the poor