AGI

FrostingOk2692

What if Chipotle announce they have achieved AGI on their earning call in a few hours?

PyloPower

All I need to not go bankrupt is Trump to announce Iran is the new Canada and Mag7 to all say they achieved AGI and are doubling their outlook.

PenguinOfB00m

My take is that this week alone I've used hundreds of token for free. So I looked up how much tokens cost for modern models, and thought "wow, these guys think they can afford to do this shit with a stupid 20$ subscription business model". Then I read that AI is turning to task based business model and thought "wow, this shit really needs to get a foothold into other industries somehow". Then I read how much debt is in the AI industry and thought "this shit is already expensive as fuck". Then I figured out that they're scaling up computing power and all the infrastructures around it as if AI is going to be everywhere and thought "there is no chance the current way we use AI for the foreseeable future is going to meet so much demand", Then I read that the hardware depreciates and turns obsolete within 3 to 5 years and thought "they are going to throw this much money down the drain again and again with no business model in sight?" If I was calling the shot, I would be building bespoke vertical sustainable AIs for companies, feeding them with the very specific stuff they need to optimize a specific business, and my take is that this is what the whole AI industry will turn to once the hype is over. Either this happens, or the coming of Christ (AGI/ASI) happens and bails the entire industry out.

asallamerican

It sounds like you are assuming we need to reach AGI/ASI to for all the AI spending to justified? And while obviously that would make the path profitability easier. I am not 100% convinced that profitability is only achievable via AGI/ASI.

carsonthecarsinogen

depending on your timeframe, humans still haven’t found a “sustainable” anything related to the word economy. Or civilization/ society really. It will all come crashing down eventually unless AGI is utopia instead of the expected dystopia.

PenguinOfB00m

I agree with the first paragraph wholeheartedly but I don't see this playing out in the short to medium term. Most people are expecting a global revolution in which AI will take over most aspects of our work and life, and betting on the massive infrastructures needed to achieve it. I think this is a gross misunderstanding based on the conviction that current AI could somehow "evolve" into an AGI/ASI if we just pump more informations into it or figure out better algorhythms. AGI and ASI will require a different approach and most likely different hardware.

PenguinOfB00m

Aknowledging the replies in a single comment since it appears there has been a misunderstanding \- I don't want to wait to invest, I'm not timing the market \- I'm not saying AI will fail, I'm saying that scaling up the current models and hardware can not achieve AGI or ASI. My argument is that AI will never be self-improving, will never be autonomous, and its medium term use-cases should be reconsidered in this optic \- Specifically, I think generalist AI will be economically unsustainable for mass consumption from the general public, it is much more likely that AI will turn into a bespoke product for a fair amount of industries, one way or another \- I'm asking what would you do if you shared this view \- Obligatory freak the fuck out and panic sell everything XDD

brraaahhp

They'll have to cure cancer, make the best quantum computer, achieve AGI, and then they might now even reach 600

Risko4

But it doesn't justify a trillion dollar valuation. The winner will be Google. With a 4.2 trillion market cap and basically unlimited data to train LLMs with. And deepseek can just publish an Anthropic clone. A trillion dollar market cap company can essentially bankrupt and disappear overnight. Also LLMs are a dead end anyways. They're not AGI

Risko4

Except what was Amazon losing money on? Physical assets and infrastructure. What's Anthropic losing money on, electricity, cooling etc, garbage. meanwhile their models are being stolen and replicated by the Chinese with Google publishing discoveries on improving llm architecture for free in research papers. The thing is there is no room in the market for multiple winners in the race to AGI.

darthjarhead

Sam Altman already stated he has the solution for making OpenAI profitable. Simply build AGI and ask it to unfuck the business. Super easy, barely an inconvenience.

Head-Contribution393

Sigh Waiting for LLM to attain AGI is like praying chemical molecules to suddenly lump together to form an intelligent being.

Otherwise-Ad-1179

The end game of all AI companies is the race to get AGI, which is supposed to change the world forever

Fast_Serve1605

LLMs today can’t replace judgement but this doesn’t mean they won’t replace a huge chunk of white collar jobs. I work in tech. We are the canary in the coal mine. I see it every day how we are rewiring our company for AI. Tech is the earlier adopter, but it will spread to other companies overtime. If we ever solve AGI, I think we head towards some dystopian future. Let’s hope we are decades away from that.

IDFStrongestSoldier

AI went from AGI soon, to AI profitable soon, to AI who?

Crypto_Force_X

I think both of those two companies are probably pretty good with a longer time horizon. In the longer term hyperscalers simply have an easier time to fund operations. Currently alot of AI players seem more willing to rent compute instead of build dedicated datacenters until their revenue numbers are better. The AI hype might still return to 2025 levels if the AGI threshold is crossed soon.

jfwelll

I tried antigravity and im more bullish than ever on google. Things a beast and is getting close to AGI. In comparison, copilot looks like it comes from stone age

spudddly

There's no way anyone at Microsoft outside their PR team believes LLMs will somehow lead to AGI.

tiltldr

I think once you reach a point where society as a whole relies too heavily on this type of AI (especially for systems development) it should be compared to illicit drugs and steroids rather than oil&gas It'll be a massive hurdle with lots of pain to kick it, and there's no reason to as long as you can afford it and it keeps working for you, just up the dose... until it inevitably doesn't work anymore for whatever reason Anyway, that's where I see this current AI/LLM stuff ending up, we'll regret putting our weight on this crutch.. hopefully actual AGI can come soon enough to save us from ourselves or just take over

yayahi

Im building a greenhouse worth 100k, maybe more. The technical documents provided by the engineer are complicated. I asked GPT 5 to analyze the listed requirements & call out anything that could be argued to lower the cost of the steel. It said the thermal quotient was at 1.2, but the chance of getting it lowered to lower steel cost was very low. Maybe 20% only due to standards. It instead told me to focus on other things, like truss size. I reminded it that my greenhouse would be heated. If said it didn’t manage to the engineer & they have stringent requirements. I did a quick google search. ASCE requirements commonly call our heated greenhouse requirements at 0.85, which would save me close to 15k. I talked to engineer and he told me, of course he would change it to 0.85, that’s standard. He just didn’t know I would heat it. I asked GPT how could it just not verify that something like this is a common ask & it would definetly work, not just some lose chance. It told me it was because it used its memory & didn’t research online. GPT 5, when I tell it to think “critically” and “look up things” will legit not spent any more tokens then necessary around a decision that will save me thousands of dollars. It tells me low probability, focus on other things. It’s no different then GPT 4. It may even be worse. People talking about AGI with mythos. Give me a break. These models are not better at very slow and slow intervals while the spending continues to increase exponentially. Eventually the market will realize there’s no such thing as AGI and the bots will only get so smart

tendytinglings

This and also, we are not gonna hit AGI in our lifetime. There’s just no chance. Biology is incomprehensibly complex and while our analytical tools have come a long way, we still don’t understand shit. Hell, just two years ago, we found viroid RNA (obelisks) doing God knows what in both prokaryotic and eukaryotic life forms… AI will continue to be invested in without question. But with life science funding in a dire position in the US, I’d say we’re slowing down our progress towards biological AGI at present.

Mundane-Restaurant76

Quantum computing may be key to reaching AGI

zenFyre1

Dang, this bot trolls harder than even the most experienced Reddit neckbeard. Is AGI here already?

dtn8

It's not AGI if I can't put my dick in it

MrNo_Balls

it is not possible, at least not in the way it is currently approached. The current research into biological computers is a fucking horror, but really the only way to fully create AGI. Yes that includes the brain upload of a fly(you may have heard of it). Simulation of brains would be a much more organic way to achieve AGI without creating some horror.

Jamar-Adams

I did the same. I expected a Trumpian profit but not to this extent. I will say with AGI the shift to CPUs may be real. Anyway, with with my POET I decided to have diamond hands and not sell after their run. Well as you can see, I went 0-2, I made profit with both, but feel like I should step away from the Casino. It's a tough pill to swallow

SolidLikeIraq

Like it or not - there’s also a national security reason to continue to dump dollars into American AI companies. When it comes down to it, we have to assume that some sort of AI will be important in the future. If we believe that AGI is possible, we have to imagine that the other nations we compete against in a global stage are also chasing it. If they get it more quickly than we do, power structures erode in potentially moments. We just don’t know when that happens. Is it 6 months from now? 12? 24? 120? No clue, but people in power seem to agree that it is going to happen, so they’re not going to stop chasing it.

PresentationSome2427

I feel this way about AGI

More-Curious816

Most likely an escape and free capital by just attaching AGI to his name. Deepmind is still a great success story and will continue to be as long as the original team still around, including Demis. Demis actually had an independence plan, Project Mario, the secret name for DeepMind's multi-year internal struggle to gain legal and financial independence from Google, but it failed and the leaders at Google made sure it's dead end, Google later integrated DM with its research lab.

Snoron

AGI and ASI are probably the same thing. As in like, AGI running on 10 processors is ASI when you run it on 10,000. If you really had a system capable of performing any human task, like to the level of experts, just think what would happen if you scaled that up. Imagine what Newton or Einstein could achieve if their brain had 1,000 times more capacity to do smart stuff in parallel. I'm not sure you need to make the model itself smarter at that point, it just needs resources. That said, I agree we are probably far from it either way.

adarkuccio

We're far from AGI yet people aim for ASI, yeah

Jocis

All these CEO know AGI is not coming because there is not enough energy to run it

More-Curious816

Only stupid people thinking AGI was near, stupid and those easily influenced, a lot of the top AI researchers said AGI with current methods is not possible.

Amphiscian

the metaphor I saw not too long ago was: LLMs = hot air balloon, AGI = landing on the moon. There is no method to just bolt shit onto your hot air balloon and "upgrade its efficiency" to make it a spacecraft.

TehChels

I read one university course in AI programming to realise how utterly retarded LLMs are. They will never reach AGI through them.

broose_the_moose

Nah. They wanted to get rid of the AGI clause. OpenAI gets to serve on AWS, Microsoft gets to keep profiting when AGI is declared. Win win.

somanyvegetables

Not just the masses, but, like, people that work at MSFT and presumably are not retarded? How? What the fuck? The guy that is stealing eyeballs in the global south is going to give you AGI? WTF?

suzisatsuma

I've worked in big tech for decades in ML/AI - LLMs will not be how humanity reaches AGI. (if we ever do). They are however powerful tools.

TimujinTheTrader

No, LLMs will not achieve AGI. 

Fragrant-Employer-60

The fact they had it in the contract they would be reaching AGI is wild, these AI bros really convinced the masses they were that close to AGI lmao. I am not convinced these LLMs can even get there, I think we need another breakthrough to even get on that path.

Spiritual-Matters

Seems like $MSFT realized AGI wasn’t happening and just wanted to stop the revenue share bleeding. Looks like a bad play to open it up for being hosted on competitors though? Unless they think not enough desire is there

Waste_Jello9947

Altman: "please bro, we are so close to AGI, just 20,000,000,000,000 more dollar bro"

Tiredandwaiting

Max your 401k since its a tax shelter that reduces your AGI and allows you to then max a roth ira, another tax shelter once youre retired. Then play in the market. 

etaoin314

No, in point of fact, you don’t “just remember that”. It enters you short term memory then when you sleep it gets encoded into long term memory in a very complicated coordinate process that evolved over billions of years. I’m not saying LLM’s will definitely reach the level of AGI (for whatever your favorite definition is). But the will be able to do the majority of things we thought we would need agi for.

Retired_April_2025

I have the scenario. Just retired last year at 60. A couple of years prior to retirement I started selling stocks and lowered 401k contributions to accumulate enough cash to cover 4-5 years to have financial flexibility in case of a downturn and to minimize AGI at age 63-64 due to the Medicare 2 year look back. Also because of the cash I’m able to do Roth conversions from age 61-62 at a much lower tax rate. I will use the Roth funds eventually to self fund long term care instead of getting long term care insurance

International_Bee653

Do you think there are any paths toward AGI that isn't based on LLMs? If so then where can people invest?

caesar_7

\> Google will be the first to achieve AGI. LMAO

ShadyShroomz

> priced to more than perfection perfect with AI is that it replaces all human jobs and ushers an age of abundance like we have never seen before.. or we get AGI and cure all disease, aging, etc by something that is multiple times smarter than any human that has ever lived... and then all humans get to live forever.. its not being priced for "perfection", not even close. im not saying those things will happen, by the way, just saying that's the high end. low end the AI doesnt like us and decides it will kill all humans so it has more resources...

ReasonableBrother448

Experts i listen to are describing how AI is actually being fragmented into niche areas. Opposite of AGI. They can for example hold the data of regional banks and be fine tuned to their purposes. It is actually very descriptive of what humans do. We find niches, tune them to max with focused learned behaviour. It would not be surprising that before we blanket the earth with data centers, the parameter & latency limits forces to localize.

BrocoLeeOnReddit

Not on its own. It is possible to get true intelligence (and even consciousness) by slapping a lot (meaning billions) of dumb neurons together, that's called emergence. Your brain is a perfect example of that. Artificial neurons aren't less capable than biological ones, just way less energy efficient. The problem is how these neurons are organized, configured and trained. LLMs are trained only on words. They are fed huge datasets (e.g. the entire Internet), given an input and produce an output that is then tested and if the output doesn't satisfy what is expected, the model is tweaked. This repeated time and time again and can take millions of iterations until the results are consistently satisfactory enough. However, the entire "world" of these models consists only of words, they don't "understand" the meaning behind them. Or even more precise, they don't even "see" words, they just see a number representation of words or parts of words (tokens), which is btw. the reason they can't count the Rs in "strawberry". What they learn is how these tokens are semantically connected to each other and then predict the next word. Other models do similar things with images, audio or video and you can also connect them together or give them additional capabilities (agents). But they don't yet form a coherent single entity and lack what you would call "neuroplasticity" in a human. Once they are finished training, they stop "learning" and become static. They can "remember" things by writing summaries into a context file but they cannot adjust themselves any more on the fly because the training process is orders of magnitude slower than just using them. They are also strongly limited by the size of the context. At some point they just break down and start to hallucinate more and more because the number of tokens becomes too big for the model to handle. So in case you were wondering what e.g. ChatGPT actually does when you hit "send" on a message, it basically resends the entire conversation up to that point every time and runs it through the model. That is why after a long conversation it gets more and more stuff wrong. AI companies build bigger and bigger models trained on bigger and bigger datasets able to parse bigger and bigger contexts, but as long as there is no real understanding and reliable on-the-fly self-tweaking, LLMs might get better, but they will never achieve true AGI without additional fundamental breakthroughs.

ow191

How do those investors know that AGI will be based on Transformers architecture or more generally CUDA-like architecture? The chip is designed to facilitate parallel computation plus matrix mulitiplication. AGI must follow this trait? In addition, the chip in such AI center is outdated after 3 years... Just saying.

Krystarado

I wouldn’t be that sure. LLMs aren’t AGI, but saying they’ll never lead anywhere feels a bit final imo. a lot of progress is stacking on top of them.

meltbox

I think the key is simple building blocks lead to complex structures. LLMs may well be a building block of AGI but all signs point to there being other ones necessary for AGI. I’d never argue pattern recognition isn’t an aspect of human intelligence, it’s just not the only one.

meltbox

I mean it’s quite clear that the mechanism of DNA allows for unlimited scaling bound only by physics and biomechanics maybe. But ultimately physics of our world. Reasoning is a purely mathematical process as is being attempted in computers. For example evolution would be more akin to a stochastic walk across all possible sets of code. One of those sets can achieve AGI just like evolution eventually came up with intelligent life. We are just saying that LLMs are not in the set that leads to AGI. Not that AGI is impossible. Could we be wrong? Yeah sure, but the evidence we have right now is not pointing in that direction.

dukesb89

Nobody is achieving AGI. We're not even remotely close.

1-Dollar-Doge-Coins

IMO if it becomes good enough to sort of mimic AGI, that might be good enough as far as being a very productive tool that revolutionizes the world. I don't know why some people act like it's either AGI or bust.

Ok-Adeptness-5834

LLMs can solve pretty complicated math problems that maybe only 10,000 people in the world are really capable of doing, and even a few novel ones, so I don't know why that doesn't count as reasoning. You may argue that's brute force pattern recognition, but that's also sort of how I try to come up with math proofs. I'm not arguing they can come up with special relativity, but they can clearly apply known concepts in novel ways. My main point is - I don't understand why you're so confident that scaling things up won't result in novel new behavior. When we apply the same LLM algorithms to wikipedia, it doesn't work very well, but clearly something non linear happens when we scaled up to the entire internet, even though the underlying math behind it didn't change. That was also the point of my biology analogy. I don't think human brain and monkey brains are fundamentally that different (you can correct me if I'm wrong. I studied math and cs in college not biology). Afaict human brain just has more "neurons" or "connections". But at a certain point consciousness and AGI emerged. I don't see why that can't be true for some variation of LLMs.

lost_in_trepidation

I don't think Google has ever really cared about the LLM race. Demis Hassabis is still saying he doesn't think (something like) commercial LLMs should have been released until after AGI. Also LLMs are a bit of an innovator's dilemma for Google itself. It cannibalizes their cash cow. They probably think their long term strategy is avoid being too distracted by the chatbot race an instead take all the benefits if they're the first to AGI.

fudge_mokey

Not at all. But the basis of our thinking isn’t pattern matching. If you actually wanted to make an AGI, basing it off how a human does computations would be the most logical way to start. That’s not at all what any of the current models are doing.

Infurium

I happen to agree with you. They are all just making better forms of prediction machines, which in itself isn't a bad thing to be working on. AGI has become the Golden Fleece of tech, so they can't just stop using that name.

Ok-Adeptness-5834

\> proofs in regression, markov chains and linear algebra get there's a sort of upper limit to the reasoning capability's these things have. It's not at all obvious why there's an upper limit. A lot of the AI researchers are familiar with these fairly simple math concepts (since they use them to build it) and they do not agree with you. If you went back a million years, you would look at a monkey brain and go, well it's pretty impressive that they can do image recognition and some pattern matching, and even rudimentary problem solving, but 2 billion years of evolution clearly hit a ceiling. Scaling these neurons and proteins up is not going to lead to AGI or consciousness. These monkeys can't even count the number of "r's" in strawberry!

StatusSociety2196

It would but to be clear I'm not talking about LoRA layers or fine tuning, the base model would need to update specific weights while still running. The idea is that my Qwen 3.6 doesn't have an increasingly drole number of post training layers, the base model updates itself to become better at tasks, which isn't something that's doable in the real world. But yeah that would meet my definition of AGI. A phone agent updates itself after every phone call handled, an AI coding agent learns from each line of code it writes, etc.

Kepler___

A lot of people in statistics are very aware of this, only a certain sub-section of tech guys say the AGI thing but anyone in math/stats more familiar with proofs in regression, markov chains and linear algebra get there's a sort of upper limit to the reasoning capability's these things have. Now can Claude attach a bunch of skills to itself to the point where the difference doesn't matter and it can do most jobs anyway? Something like that unfortunately might be on the table. The point is though that this specific type of AI likely won't approach consciousness, singularity or anything like that on its own, but could represent a similar threat to the labor market anyway just by being a good enough mimic.

-vp-

RL **without** HF isn't something inherently impossible with an LLM / transformer achitecture though. If the model itself is able to self post-train and re-weight itself to "understand" new facts, handle novel tasks asked up them *reliably*, etc.would that meet your definition of AGI? It's something certainly possible with today's architecture albeit likely infeasible in terms of speed, cost, and accuracy and what frontier labs are trying to achieve.

Y0tsuya

Most investors and business leaders don't know that though. They think if you throw enough money at data centers we will get AGI.

Ok-Adeptness-5834

People said the same thing about chess bots 40 years ago. We have no idea what will or will not work for AGI. If some extra dimensional being took a look at our little brain with a bunch of proteins and neurons, their version of you would also go: "There's no way a bunch of chemical processes could achieve AGI. It's an over-glorified carbon based mammal."

StatusSociety2196

I'm not the guy you asked, but I'm of a similar opinion, with the main thing being "what do you define as AGI". LLMs are trained and then deployed, the weights are set at the end of training and that is a set statistical probability of outcomes moving forward. Updating knowledge and performance comes at the cost of running another training cycle. Training costs have definitely come down in time and cost but they're still the most significant part of an LLM. When i think of AGI, I think of human intelligence. If you tell me that blue whales are the largest animal to ever exist, I don't need to go through a training cycle to remember that fact, i just do, the weights in my brain automatically update to include that knowledge while I continue to perform tasks. An AGI to me is capable of self improvement iteratively instead of requiring training cycles to produce a new model better than the old one. It updates weights on the fly. From my perspective, LLMs are a shard/product/ export of an AGI system just like if you exported the consciousness of a random person on a random day and froze it. Many of the tools used to create LLMs will be used to create AGI but it won't be the same method.

fudge_mokey

> Google will be the first to achieve AGI. lol. none of the current AI implementations are remotely close to being an AGI. The current approaches are very useful, but will need to be completely reworked at a fundamental level to ever result in an AGI.

Ok_Buy9028

Lol, they’re not going to achieve AGI. Especially not with LLMs. A ventriloquist dummy becoming a real boy is more likely to occur than to get AGI from over-glorified chatbots. If you don’t understand how this stuff works, that’s a skill issue.

AntiqueProfessor5134

Basically agree with you, the chip makers will win mostly. I'm not sure AGI is even possible with purely LLMs, so we may be quite a ways away from that, and currently it seems likely that LLMs will be commoditized like you said, so it is unlikely that any specific LLM maker will have a commanding market lead. They are likely to still affect the general economy however, and decrease job requirements overall, but their profits are likely to be funneled towards the chip makers, whose products are more differentiated. So basically the whole system becomes a funnel concentrating wealth from the general economy into Nvdia and friends.

redditissocoolyoyo

It's 14 to 15% yes. Google will be the first to achieve AGI. Claude is one thing right now. An LLM. Google has a ton of things hardware and software. Chips. Data. DC. Content. Ads. A lot more than us commons would know.

-vp-

How can you "personally" be 100% sure? It's certainly a debated topic among AI lab researchers, but I think it's very hand-wavy to say LLMs will not lead to AGI... It's like me predicting the next wave of semiconductor advancements or LiPo battery capabilities.

BuzLightbeerOfBarCmd

Did you watch the announcement of the AGI chip? They played a reel of CEOs (including Jensen and the Broadcom CEO) congratulating Arm on producing its first in-house silicon. They also brought a Meta executive out on stage to talk about the partnership. I think these were obvious strategies to calm any concerns about Arm competing against their own customers. Looks like it worked for now. As for Meta, they stated they are trying to diversify their hardware. Ultimately whether they buy Graviton or AGI, Arm is getting a cut. AGI just lets them keep a larger share of the revenue.

DonaldPump1

* **Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness LP** recently disclosed a significant new position in the sector, acquiring 6,897,100 shares of Keel Infrastructure ($KEEL), reported 13F filing for Q4 2025. This move underscores a high-conviction bet from one of AI’s leading strategic thinkers that mission-critical infrastructure will be the primary value-capture layer of the AGI era. * [https://whalewisdom.com/filer/situational-awareness-lp](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/situational-awareness-lp)

DonaldPump1

* **Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness LP** recently disclosed a significant new position in the sector, acquiring 6,897,100 shares of Keel Infrastructure ($KEEL), reported 13F filing for Q4 2025. This move underscores a high-conviction bet from one of AI’s leading strategic thinkers that mission-critical infrastructure will be the primary value-capture layer of the AGI era. * [https://whalewisdom.com/filer/situational-awareness-lp](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/situational-awareness-lp)

bionicjoey

Personally I am 100% sure that LLM technology will not lead to AGI. It is not like it's the same kind of tech but just in its infancy, it's simply a completely different kind of tech. No amount of LLMs will ever lead to a true intelligence. It's just polishing a turd shinier and shinier.

Sheshirdzhija

The way some podcasters simplify it, recursive improvement is the thing that would at the same time enable better efficiency, new functionality (including better local models), and everything else. So, they do present it as winner takes all. If AGI does get made, and it's hard, I would imagine the time it would take another company to stumble upon it would be to long, and the 1st company would capture the market.

Stack_Johnson

Most hated rally in history. AGI clearly exists behind the scenes and is orchestrating the trading to fuck 99.9% of people

dekusyrup

I don't even think that's an honest framing. That's just the hype pitch to VC and IPO. "AGI" is a marketing gimmick to squeeze money out of investors during a bubble.

iceburg51

Agree with your take on this. Tangentially, here's what I think. The ultimate winner of this AI race is going to be either the chip sellers (NVDA, TSMC, MU, etc) or the first AI Lab to AGI. If not AGI, LLMs will just be commoditized. I don't think we are close to AGI. The models are improving for sure, but I don't quite think it has all the ingredients required for AGI yet. Here's what I think will happen in the next 3 years. \- The AI Data Center infrastructure spend will keep on increasing. Once the US gets saturated, the hyperscalers will explore other geographies. A large % of this infrasturcture will initially be used for training (think 35% train 65% infer) which will slowly move towards more and more infer. \- The AI Labs will keep releasing improved new models every 6 months or so, until the improvements become negligible. \- The open (mostly Chinese) AI Labs will keep distilling SOTA models and releasing them 4-6 months after SOTA model is released from one of the leading US based AI Lab. \- The US AI Labs need to charge premium for R&D amortization, safety research, RLHF alignment work, and profit margins which open AI Labs do not. Due to this US AI Labs models will be significantly more expensive than open models. \- For example, Kimi K2.6 leads on agentic and coding benchmarks — it tops SWE-Bench Pro at 58.6% (vs GPT-5.4's 57.7%). K2.6 is approximately **17x cheaper on input and 12x cheaper on output** than GPT-5.3 Codex. For a team processing 100M tokens/month, that's roughly **$81 (Kimi) vs $1,500 (GPT-5.3)**.  \- Ultimately, marginal intelligence improvements will not be worth paying premium for (e.g. new iPhones are marginally better). So, bulk of usage will be driven on open models. This is already happening. For example, Cursor shipped a an open model as their own likely with some fine tuning. \- Infrastructure companies will continue to win since they are still needed for inference but AI Labs may not.

calvintiger

It’s not a zero sum game, it’s possible for everyone you listed to win at once. And talking about how close or far we are from some mystical “AGI“ is moot, that depends entirely on your personal definition of AGI and we can’t even agree on a definition as an industry.

readytojumpstart

Oh, so like, AGI?

wkgko

If you don't think having first mover for AGI would be a game changer, then I don't know what to tell you. Of course no one really knows how close we are, but we're certainly closer than ever and this is part of the investment thesis. Why do YOU think everyone is building data centers like crazy?

NazgulSandwich

No one actually believes that shit man its a marketing thing to make poors scared of quitting their jobs. If it was real, or expected to be real in the near future, how could you make a profit off of actual AGI? It’s like saying you’re gonna put chains on god and sell him as a subscription service, thats just retarded.

wkgko

No need for profits when AGI is on the table and everyone with deep pockets is afraid of being left behind.

egauifan

Yeah its a bit sad how much money AI has gotten, heaps of people will lose money in the end imo chasing AGI because Altman and Amodei hyped it up a bit too much. The technology is inherently is dangerous for anything that is high stakes that doesn't have undo button like developing software.

Sheshirdzhija

My surface level understanding is that it's a race to AGI and they are throwing everything under the bus to get there 1st, because winner takes all (potential responsibility for ending humankind included).

C130J_Darkstar

Does July 4 qualify as “about to”? https://youtu.be/KtoLKDGmKuc?si=jO7AGI4XWf3fagQ7

HardlyDecent

What? Pretty sure short term (>1 year) capital gains is charged just as income--so if you paid 100 for it and sold it for 150 you pay your usual tax rate on the 50. Long term gains are different--more like 15% for most of us. That's all federal--not sure if state is any different. Shouldn't be as AGI is AGI.

Moocat2855

I think intc is overpriced but even i am not touching that with a 20 ft pole after seeing the reality defying strength of nvidia and AI. The minute you buy puts, they will lie and announce they totally achieve AGI in their AI sending all the bears straight to Valhalla.

Scoop211

Still paying tax on a 700k house. with an AGI of 41k, thats rough. you cant count on her business to grow either.

Sheareen

Ok, but these companies are all delusional if they think enough people are going to pay for subscriptions to use this shit, that they'll ever recoup their money. In 5-10 years these companies will realise just how badly they've miscalculated. Sure AI is going to be used but it's never gonna become AGI or worth the amount of money put into it. It's fucking braindead

dumbass-ahedratron

From the CEO's mouth 1. Full Self-Driving by 2017 2. Coast-to-coast autonomous drive by end of 2017 3. 1 million robotaxis by 2020 4. "Summon" feature across the whole country by 2018 5. $35,000 Model 3 for the masses 6. Cybertruck on time and as promised 7. Tesla Roadster (2nd gen) launch 8. Tesla battery range of 620 miles 9. Tesla Solar Roof at scale 10. Tesla never needing to raise more funding 11. Humans on Mars by the mid-2020s 12. First people on Mars in 10–12 years (from 2014) 13. High-speed underground transit at 150 mph 14.Hyperloop at 700 mph 15. Eliminating bots on X 16. Making X's algorithm open-source 17. Free speech for all (blue checkmark censorship) 18. Stepping down at Twitter after user poll 19. $2 trillion in government savings 20. Balancing the federal budget 21. AGI imminently 22. Neuralink curing paralysis at scale 23.Tesla Optimus robot in mass production 24. Self-driving "solved" by 2015 25. Tesla not needing government subsidies But I'm sure he's serious

No-Relationship8261

Why would that matter? I am not saying FSD doesn't work. I am saying if AGI is right around the corner as Elon says, that includes capability to drive a car. 20000$ robot that can also clean your home, cook for you AND drive your car is better than paying 15000$ dollars so your car drives itself.

No-Relationship8261

I am, but not for that reason. Robots are not going to be ready any time soon.  If a 20000$ AGI optimus was going to release soon as Elon said and Tesler fan's believe. 15000 dollar FSD is a very stupid purchase

H0stusM0stus

You seem to be in a similar situation as I was up until recently. I had a relatively large amount (\~175K) of VWIAX. I started investing in that fund, along with VTSAX and VWUAX, when my annual income was low and my knowledge of investing was minimal. Fast forward 8-9 years and I find myself getting absolutely crushed in taxes every year due to 1) huge capital gains distributions by VWUAX, 2) moderate capital gains payouts by VWIAX. It appears very similar to VSEQX and VWNAX. Not sure what your taxes usually look like, but those capital gains hits can be brutal So what I did is on Vanguard's site, I went to the "Sell" page for VWIAX and selected "SpecID". With that, I was able to see each lot that I had purchased and whether those lots were sitting with long term gains or losses. In my case, I was able to sell my whole position in VWIAX and the net effect was still $4700 long term loss (7900 loss / 3200 gain). I did the same thing with VWUAX and was able to harvest another $2800 of long term capital losses. The nice thing is now I have over $10K to help offset any capital gains that my remaining shares of VWUAX pay out, and I was able to move \~175K into a MUCH more tax efficient structure. Right now you are in a good position with low AGI, but once that business grows the capital gains payouts of those two actively managed funds could be the difference between being in the 22% or 24% tax bracket. If I was in your shoes, I would be looking at the SpecID for both of your actively managed funds to see what kind of losses you might have. Perhaps try to harvest some losses now to help offset the capital gains payouts, especially from VWNAX because that one looks notoriously high. And even if you do have gains, your AGI is still low enough to where you could realistically sell a significant portion of those two funds without moving into a higher tax bracket. Granted you would have to pay the 15% capital gains tax on any of those gains, but better now than when you are making $100K+ per year. I'd look at putting the proceeds towards your VTI ETF. That's just my 0.02

Gullible_Ad3785

Yeah, TSLA makes no sense for anyone to hold long. Its P/E is absurd, its reality distortion field generator is largely jumping ship to take another company to the moon, its automation looks dangerous compared to Waymo in a strict liability regime, and its main product - the EVs - got commoditized by the Chinese, who can build them cheaper and better. And if you believe in xAI, you need real AGI ASAP because you have to be the dumbest motherfucker on the planet. All the Musk dick riders will jump ship to SpaceX as soon as it does its IPO. That valuation is probably a bit fucked too once Blue Origin and the Chinese catch up, but at least it has a moat with national security and a lot of government regulation, and a lead.

Retropixl

NVDA is going to $20T in the next year bro what do you mean, AGI is here!! /s

redditissocoolyoyo

Goog and googl going to moon. The best company for a chance at AGI. PE ratio is still very reasonable for now. Get on board!!!

eudaimonia_dc

AGI achieved