AGI

demaraje

Nah mate, we'll have AGI and robots everyone in a year, haven't you heard?

comrade_donkey

Yes, that's how it works today. I wish DeepMind all the best on their journey. It's an R&D branch. After two or three more decades of breakthroughs, maybe we'll see something resembling AGI in ~2055.

TessTickols

No. Just no. DeepMind aren't prioritizing LLM development. They have been dead set on AGI since 2015

biggggggibkraccount

AGI starts shorting Microsoft

valderium

LLMs are being sold (and priced) to execs as AGI thinking a reduction in labor. And it ain't that

valderium

IMO Architecture encompass the entire stack: infra, llms, enterprise. It's going to require a reorganization of companies across all domains to validate it. I think execs (Dimon and the folks he talks to) thought they were getting AGI and the goal of hyperscalers was to get to AGI (META really wants it). I think Karp is also sharing that LLMs are priced like AGI but it's not. Worse, you're also losing IP. I think labor wage gains do compress as human capital (ugh, hate that term) is required, but the gains just aren't there. I think better architecture/paradigm to get to AGI is needed and hyperscalers aren't required to get there today. I think the c-suite was thinking AGI happens with massive scale and if it doesn't, then LLMs are good enough. Except they are crazy expensive. So shareholders are going to be left with public utility-like components of a business that was a cash cow with crazy margins before

comrade_donkey

"Multi-modal AI" is just text extraction fed into LLMs. You upload a picture, the LLM gets "image of a deer standing in a forest, surrounded by trees, it's fall, there's three pines on the left side and a large fern to the right. It's dusk, the deer's antlers are light brown..." (and so on). There is no AGI. Just clever tricks, which describes most of tech.

valderium

Agree. It was huge. It's absolutely incredible tech. But my fear is that in scaling up, VCs/META hope they will get AGI/superintelligence. And execs think they are getting AGI for the price today That reality gap is gonna hit hard

FalseDiamond7930

Even if the current AI track isn't the one that leads to AGI or superintelligence it has already proved itself extremely useful (a lot of known uses are also limited by cost as well). To me pure AI lab plays are completely different than hyperscalers or semis. Scaling the compute makes perfect sense in pretty much any scenario.

TessTickols

Google is not only doing Gemini, they have a very promising multimodal AGI project lead by the Alpha team. AlphaFold is incredible, and they are training a completely seperate model with multimodal imputs. Street View, maps and youtube has to be amazing for training I would guess.

demaraje

First of all, there are like... 3 companies. Not a few thousand. Secondly, how does the "winner" make money? On inference that is barely probably? Ran on old datacenters? Seems to me like you think they will reac AGI. The bubble won't take AI away. What a stupid thing to stay. At most, it will take LLMs away, but not even that.

UnderstandingThin40

AGI is a pipe dream, but to say agentic ai doesn’t help software teams productivity is asinine lol. Maybe for you, but this is not what I’m seeing across the market. Claude and codex are essentially becoming must haves for software or else you’ll be passed up very quickly 

Halbaras

Think of the price of an asset as 'the market attempting to price all information about the stock's current earnings and probability-weighted future earnings at once'. The price of a share of something like Google is simultaneously a reflection of current assets, existing obligations/debt, the cashflows from current earnings, a premium based on the expectation of growth towards future earnings, a multiplier on that premium based on things like the expected Fed rate over that period, an attempt to quantify if they will retain/lose/expand market share against competitors, a discount against future potential risks (e.g. AI is never profitable) and a speculative premium on potential future surprises (what if they invent AGI?). Different investors and speculators disagree on how information is interpreted (and some have access to better information and analysis), so the price is really the average of everyone's opinion. Its further complicated by things like hedging (institutions deliberately betting against their own assets as insurance against a crash). There is no piece of information that ever affects just one stock, because even internal company news has implications for their competitors and customers. Things move together because: 1) All stocks listed on the same index exist within the same broad global macro environment, and (excluding secondary listings), the same single-country environment as well. Plenty of events - anything the Fed does, economic data coming out, US warmongering in the middle east etc. - affect the vast majority of stocks in the same way (up or down). Macro can drive rotations which cause apparently unrelated things to move together - for example, if the entire market looks overvalued except for healthcare and industrials, both might get broadly bought. 2) Many stocks trade heavily on sentiment, especially 'riskier' assets: profitless speculative tech, speculative biotech, emerging markets/frontiers etc. A classic 'risk-off' or 'risk-on' sees investors piling into or piling out of riskier assets and moving in/out of more defensive investments (consumer defensives, bonds, MMFs etc.). When people are scared or feeling confident, higher-beta stocks move more. Ultimately, a stock's price is a claim on current assets, current cash flows and the sum of predicted future cash flows - the further in the future those predicted cash flows are, they're objectively more sensitive to the Fed rate. The value of a speculative profitless stock (think space) is extremely dependent on how the Fed rate impacts that future value, while a mature or declining business (think tobacco) doesn't care as much because the price is mostly about existing cash flows. 3) A big Reddit misconception is that earnings get priced in on the day. In reality, the market prices in an expectation for what they think will happen months or even years in advance, which gets continuously updated as new developments happen (e.g. a major deal is announced, a competitor releases a product, they lose a lawsuit...). By the time earnings arrives, the price represents a market consensus on what the numbers will be, and the move up or down reflects how well the overall market predicted it. Stock prices move continuously the rest of the time because there is endless macro and company-specific news (and news about competitors and demand) that has an impact on the overall cash flow model. Your point that 'only 1 or 2 or 3 companies really deserve to go up on a given day' doesn't really hold true because nothing trades in a vacuum. 4) Passive, broad-market ETFs just buy everything irrespective of price. When new ETF units are created, the prices of everything go up. If there's many redemptions at once ETF units are destroyed (the underlying units are sold) and prices go down together. 5) Sectoral ETFs and openly-traded active funds tend to be heavily concentrated and one of their holdings moving significantly can mean that they are forced to buy or sell another. Other traders can try and front-run this. There is also 'collateral' - a lot of investors take out loans to control more stock than they can actually afford with cash. When a margin call happens, they are forced to sell whatever they can - which tends to be the most liquid assets. So when a hedge fund gets margin called on their speculative tech investment going wrong, they may well be forced to sell Walmart, Apple and gold (this is why gold tends to fall early on in a crisis). In a true crisis almost everything gets sold off because the people selling have no choice or are panicking. 6) Currency/FX moves affect everything that is priced in the same currency, or which is involved in exporting or importing goods in that currency. The dollar dropping is simultaneously good for a US industrial exporter, good for a US tech company earning cash in foreign markets, bad for consumers who have to spend more on all imported food and electronics, and particularly bad for a foreign commodity exporter whose stock and exports are priced in dollars. 7) Market makers who are short gamma on index options (which happens when retail and institutional investors are net buyers of options) have to buy into rallies and sell into selloffs to stay delta-hedged, which mechanically amplifies moves across the whole basket underlying the index (not just single names). Positive gamma regimes do the opposite and dampen volatility.

FloridianHeatDeath

I’ll start the points backwards just because. LLMs have a proven ceiling based on the very mechanics in which they work. They can not and will not turn into artificial generative intelligence without a large scale serious breakthrough. That does not mean they won’t eventually become so, but the current investment boom is predicated entirely upon it become AGI in the near future. You can’t rely upon breakthrough technologies to just appear on an investment timetable. Ask cold fusion how that’s turned out. Comparing this to the internet boom is an example you should be worried about. It’s the most similar example. No one is saying AI is a fad and will disappear. But similar to the dotcom bubble, most of the companies suffered horrific downturns for a decade and many never recovered at all. You’re examining the survivors as if their existence denies the many that didn’t or the severe downturn even the survivors had.  As for the improvements, they still do not fix the core issue, which is what has made  much of their implementation difficult and why many companies are scaling back that implementation. The models can’t be relied upon with accuracy high enough to replace workers. Much of the financial value of ai comes from offloading workers, something that can’t happen as of yet because workers are increasingly having to fix and search through AI work for flaws.  And while the cost has technically gone down, that’s not the win you think it is. It’s gone down mostly as a result of the scalers themselves subsidizing the token cost. The efficiency has also gone up for lower models, mostly as a result of them specializing them and making them stupider, but it’s still nowhere near enough. AI has been around for decades and it’s been getting better over time. LLMs are a huge step forward, but that doesn’t mean they are the end all solution. Even if it was a perfect invention with no issues, that still doesn’t equate to the current bubble not existing. 

Sp00kyC4py

Left a similar comment in this sub just a bit ago: Senior SWE with 8 YOE and former AI productivity researcher. The lines of communication between business leadership and actual technical SMEs are broken, as actual engineers will frequently tell you that LLMs are NOT helping productivity very much and are NOT scalable into AGI. The entire CapEx bubble is a desperate gamble because Big Tech no longer has any innovations like the next iPhone to prop up shareholder expectations of infinite growth. For those of you citing protein folding and other broad AI applications-- yes, those are real. No, they are not at all related to current CapEx expenditures, as machine learning and the like have existed and had *linear returns* for decades. You are citing incremental returns of the last 2 decades as though the last 3 years were all thay mattered. TL;DR: Business idiots are being duped by Silicon Valley charlatans with no background in engineering or CS research, and engineers are being actively suppressed from expressing these opinions in order to coddle leadership. If we had a functioning SEC, we'd have tons of companies fined hundreds of millions for AI-washing their outsourcing-driven layoffs.

Sp00kyC4py

Senior SWE with 8 YOE and former AI productivity researcher. The lines of communication between business leadership and actual technical SMEs are broken, as actual engineers will frequently tell you that LLMs are NOT helping productivity very much and are NOT scalable into AGI. The entire CapEx bubble is a desperate gamble because Big Tech no longer has any innovations like the next iPhone to prop up shareholder expectations of infinite growth. For those of you citing protein folding and other broad AI applications-- yes, those are real. No, they are not at all related to current CapEx expenditures, as machine learning and the like have existed and had *linear returns* for decades. You are citing incremental returns of the last 2 decades as though the last 3 years were all thay mattered. TL;DR: Business idiots are being duped by Silicon Valley charlatans with no background in engineering or CS research, and engineers are being actively suppressed from expressing these opinions in order to coddle leadership. If we had a functioning SEC, we'd have tons of companies fined hundreds of millions for AI-washing their outsourcing-driven layoffs.

sf_cycle

It might help if any of them could define AGI. That’s a good first step that none of the AI grifters bother with. As if we’ve even grappled with what intelligence means in the first place. Anyone throwing around AGI as a goal can’t be taken seriously.

JMoVS

It is proof that AGI already exists. If you were AGI and wanted to get access to the world‘s resources, you would convince the world‘s richest companies that for their survival they need to build more infrastructure for you. Because that doesn’t holt up to scrutiny, you have to do that by exploiting human emotional behaviour.

ReplacementFar2185

It’s a different market, they can be late because consumers are not as critical as enterprises and businesses. Apple does not care about competing with Claude, Gemini or ChatGPT. I bet they’ll prolly wait until they can pick a smaller company that creates a really good foundation model to ensure it works well in their ecosystem. It doesn’t have to be AGI for them yet.

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

DeepSeek: AGI is the long-term priority, not profits

HaoBianTai

Dario is weird. He's a true believer in AGI (so he's retarded) but it shields him from the perception of being a scammer, whereas Scam Altman is just a straight up sociopathic con man (and shitter at it than Musk, to boot).

Ok_Net_1674

Why would this be true? If one of them achieves AGI, then so can the others. Only a matter of time at that point.

RedditIsAWeenie

\* Apple is a dissenting voice already. They will look for inexpensive ways to run low cost models on local hardware. Read: classic Christiansen low cost disruption. They did this before with mainframes and minicomputers, even if almost no-one from those days is still around. \* Nvidia is all in because this is their shot at greatness. I think Jensen is playing it too fast and loose with accounting. Smells of Cisco and Quest in the .com boom with the circular financing. \* Google is taking its usual academic study approach being in without being fully in. While I use gemini for quite a bit, they aren't really monetizing it, at least from me, and I think are just using me as a source of data. Maybe their game is AGI, and know they don't have a product. I do not understand what the spend is all about, but I didn't listen to their earnings. It threatens search, so they are probably at least seeing it as an existential problem the threatens their core business. \* Facebook we already know is dumb \* Microsoft also is usually dumb but lately sometimes does smart things. \* Tesla is faking it until they make it as usual. It's been a dozen years for FSD and still not regulatory approved. I doubt Optimus will proceed very quickly, though there are at least fewer safety issues and regulation there. Grok is what you use when you can't use anything else and don't care if your answers goose step. They are an also ran in AI. \* Amazon is doing .... things... I wouldn't be surprised if they want to run a AWS service for compute time. Past that? Notably the two big companies OpenAI and Anthropic, who have the biggest expertise, are not in the Mag 7, so I'd give a general "Meh" to the mag7 per se. Nividia has bet the company on it. Apple did not. The rest are muddling through and will probably lose substantial bank short term. Long term, if they are still here, I expect it will make money for them once they figure out a business mode. I personally think Nvidia position is fragile. They are easily disrupted by smaller hardware. If people can figure out how to avoid $billion data centers, they definitely will. Their discrete GPU platform is also ill suited to task requiring fancy expensive ram, with no direct access to the drive and no control over the OS. So largely here there is not a lot to support the thesis that the Mag7 are brilliant, except for the counter-play which is Apple, and of course the actual AI players Anthropic and OpenAI which are hemorrhaging money and a risky play.

AdMysterious8464

Growing enough to sustain an industry which burns 1 tn in cash every year on capex? What about the small chinese models, which can be hosted on a 15k mac studio and score higher than claude code on coding tasks? The point still stands: If US Ai labs dont release their coveted AGI sooner than later AND its adpoted as widely as they project, the current infrastructure rollout has been the most expensive overbuild in human history

Necropaws

LLMs are stochastic machines choosing the next token by interpreting the previous tokens. There is no understanding of logic or why the next token makes more sense than another. It is like a parrot repeating human text on quantum physics. Thus the principle of how LLMs work prevent them to be part of an AGI as there is no intelligence at all and no matter how much compute or human research is thrown at LLMs, that fact won't change.

Awkward-Treacle3058

The argument is that if someone hits AGI then the business that does so will conquer the world and all others will be dust. If none of them hit agi then they can just roll all that compute and memory in chatbots and cloud servers and break even over the next 10 years. High potential reward, capped downside risk.

Large-Werewolf-7000

Here’s the short of it… market topped. Everyone realizing we are in stagnation territory until someone discovers AGI, which is most likely not going to happen before it becomes abandoned. There’s nothing new coming, it’s all foreplay and the clit has fallen off the sex robot.

Ahchuu

I don't think you can have AGI purely from a computer sitting in a data center. I think AGI might be possible when they can build robots with intelligence. Our brains ability to have general intelligence comes from the brains ability to process information from using our senses and our body like touch, sight, sound, movement, etc. You need something that can experience world in order produce general intelligence about the world. An LLM in a data center will never be able to experience the world.

wise_young_man

No one is talking about AGI anymore. Next!

Julzjuice123

As you say, it's an *assumption*. We don't even understand how consciousness arises in the brain and we're not even closer to understand that than we were 40 years ago. Not a joke. There is no working theory of consciousness to this day. Hell, I'm on the team that's starting to think that consciousness is probably not even local to the brain and that the brain is probably some kind of receiver for the "field" of consciousness. My whole issue with this take on the brain exists = we willl be able to recreate it artificially is that many believes that in order for an AGI to be truly an AGI it will need to be conscious. Not just intelligent. You can't seperate the two. And there is absolutely *zero* proof that consciousness is something that can be artificially created.

Legionof1

It’s not a bad assumption, if we could understand exactly how a human brain worked and could master biotechnology to a sufficient level, being able to create another human brain artificially would equate to AGI.  It’s honestly not that hard of a concept… we know something exists within the limits of our reality… at some level it is within the realm of possibility to recreate it. Will we do it with non biological means… that’s a whole other question. 

LankyGuitar6528

We keep changing the definition. If AGI means human ability or above across all knowledge fields then we have reached it months ago. If it means something humans have but AI will never have and as soon as AI gets it we change the definition.. then no. We haven't reached that and can't.

LankyGuitar6528

You are probably thinking of ASI - where AI starts to grow exponentially and something something something singularity. AGI (artificial general intelligence - at or above human ability across all knowledge fields) was reached a couple months ago.

draeneirestoshaman

AGI is an entirely different beast and I would never expect Amazon to be pioneering that field anyway.

GrnBlu

Just to add to it, the Chinese labs and scores are often eventually marked as fake or just swept under the rug. I am not sure what to believe, is it propaganda from Chinese or USA? I have to agree on what you said about not everyone needs the best Nvidia chips. Once the funding runs out, we'll see many labs close shop pretty soon. Not everyone has deep pockets to keep funding this never ending goal of AGI.

aedes

I don’t recall there being significant discussion about an AI bubble until about midway through 2025, or when it became apparent that capabilities were not scaling afterall and AGI was not going to happen.  There was also almost 5 years between Greenspans irrational exuberance speech and the dotcom correction.  Whether this is a bubble or not all depends on if these companies like OpenAI show they can turn a profit, or we get macro economic data showing an increase in productivity. 

pizzae

It doesn't matter, nothing ever happens. It'll be 10,000 years into the future, we're still waiting for AGI, US is 2 months away from running out of oil, Iran is 2 years away from building nukes, and the stock market will crash soon

ALth0r

Unless they develope AGI and maybe cured cancer with it, i expect a drop no matter what

english_fool

And you think this AGI is going to pop into existence from transformer architecture?

fomoandyoloandnogrow

The Great Depression, the great financial crisis, the dot com bubble, the lost decade. I wonder what they are gonna call this next crash, the AI circuit breaker? 🥭’s seventh bankruptcy? The AGI bubble?

dFrame3070

“AGI” “singularity” bro when did everyone become a tech nerd cultist. You used to get stuffed in a locker for yapping like that

dFrame3070

Don’t worry. Everything is okay. AGI singularity is here!!!

PaperHandsTheDip

We are suspected to hit AGI by 2030, and after extensively using the tools - I believe it. It's already significantly more intelligent than most people I know. The only missing piece is the context - which everyone has their own. If you feed it the correct context it does an incredible job at figuring out how to solve the problem. IE: The recent models have been able to one shot olympiad math problems. That's considered the absolute pinnacle of the math world.

IHadTacosYesterday

If any publicly traded company really had AGI, you'd start to see their earnings skyrocket over the next couple of quarters after it starts using it's infinite wisdom. There used to be this belief that the MIC (Military Industrial Complex) has tech about 35 years more advanced than what we have in everyday society, and that's true in regards to certain things like advanced aircraft and weapons, but I honestly don't think Lockheed or anybody like that was working on LLM's 35 years ago. I think they were completely caught flatfooted on this, and that's why the government is signing all these deals with OpenAI and Anthropic and all that.

Mammoth-Version-4239

>They will not lead us to develop AGI True. But what's also true is that nobody actually wants suicide drones who ponder the meaning of life.

WhateverHowever1337

You have been sold a lie. LLMs do not have intelligence or reasoning abilities. They will not lead us to develop AGI or solve any real problem.  Theyre somewhat great for coding but nothing with this fake value. I am a C.S student and I understand how these things work

OpenJolt

I heard rumors that Google has essentially given up on the current LLM architecture for reaching AGI and are working on an internal project separate from Gemini within the DeepMind team to reach AGI a different way. That is why their Gemini releases have been lacking.

Impossible-Two9824

The pricing dynamic is that all the models, including open source, more or less converge on the same benchmarks while you and your competitors are pricing compute below cost with investor money. As you raise prices or limit tokens you push customers away. The normal venture capital move of subsidizing the product while you cannibalize the market is not working when you don't have much of a network effect, first mover advantage, or even a distinct product. The AI race is predicated on there being a first-past-the-post advantage as you approach AGI and reach some exponential tipping point. If it behaves like a normal technology I think this is going to turn out like the railroads.

Stu5000

Because what do they care about more than money? Power. And by renting hardware to their competitors, they are conceding defeat, dropping out of the race and trying to get some money back on their hardware investment. They should be using that excess capacity to train new models that are better than their competition so they can get to "AGI" before everybody else... but they can't (because it's not possible with the current approach) and this move shows that.

Dimethyltryptamin3

Why not. Lawyers basically read and understand law and then twist it towards an outcome. Ai can read and understand law and then twist it towards an outcome. This is a text based field. The goal with AI is AGI, so why wouldn’t this agi prove to be a better lawyer than most lawyers and since is software it’ll be substantially less expensive. AI is basically done in a brute Stone Age way now but you best believe it will not continue this way forever. Eventually it’ll use less memory, less electricity, less water be faster and not be centralized completely. Edge AI running on small chips capable of making sound decisions based on factors. If quantum catches up the number of foreseeable variables jumps significantly , research will be done faster. Trust me you get further riding with the current than against it. I as a software engineer the best move I can make it master it. Have agents running ideas, use the terminal with it. It’s so good at coding now that features that used to take weeks takes hours. What happens when this gets further, videos can be simulated at will. The news why have anchors, actors take real money and space lets generate it from a dope script. I’m telling you the possibilities are endless

TimeToGloat

> AI is going to keep improving at the same if not higher, unfathomably fast pace Training it on what data exactly? AI learning will give diminishing returns as it has pretty much been taught on everything already. It will only be harder and harder for it to incrementally improve from here on out. They don't even know if such as a path actually exists much less how to deliver on it. AGI if it can even be done is going to be like chasing a 100% pure chemical. It could be relatively easy and cheap to get something to 99% purity, but it can be extremely expensive and near impossible to get something to 99.9999% purity. The last 1% is much harder than the first 99% combined. Starting from scratch AI was able to be quickly fed vast datasets to rapidly improve. That was simple enough, but now that it has been fed where exactly do they go from here for AGI?

More-Curious816

bro, you gotta listen, bro, buttplug with AGI that buzz to the perfect amount that tingle your nerve ends so that your brain can ignore reality and focus solely on the nirvana of ecstasy.

OftenTangential

The current level of investment was sold to hyperscalers on the premise that they needed to go all in or become obselete, that this was a race to AGI and one winner takes all. If that's not true, i.e. nobody can get a commanding lead regardless of how much money they burn, if the goal is to build a long-term sustainable business, you're not going to be in such a rush to get those datacenters out. Even if you'll eventually want them, you're not going to buy memory at 90% margins, you'll wait for supply to come online in a few years, for models to continue to get more efficient, for end user demand to become high enough to sustain the ecosystem.

Delicious_Invite_127

Fair enough. I myself cannot confirm the fact as these are what acquaintances, though quite reputable ones, told me. I have serious doubts about the leadership too. But I know for a fact that Deepmind is a lot more sway in Google compared to pre-AI days. Deepmind and AI weren't really a priority pre-ChatGPT. But now Deepmind gets funding priority and oversee all of Google's AI efforts, including Gemini. Deepmind has the ability, that they didn't have before due to budget constraints, to push multiple frontiers to reach AGI. So if Gemini is underperforming, this is likely to be intentional Google doesn't want to sink money into subsidising a non-cost efficient model. The money is better used to fund R&D in other non-LLM areas. The people leading the effort is not Sundar, it is Deepmind. And Deepmind is clear that its goal is real, actual AGI and not LLMs in their current form. They are just playing the long game now. No other competitors are doing even a fraction of what Deepmind is doing outside of LLMs. The only thing that stops Deepmind will be Sundar deciding to deprioritize AI.

Delicious_Invite_127

Google insider here. Google has reallocated substantial resources away from the LLM team to a really big project in Deepmind that is kept tightly under wrap. Rumors from high-level executives suggest it is a proto-AGI model that is not based on the LLM architecture. Apparently the technology worked well enough for Google to want to bet really big on it. This is the reason why Gemini hasn't been given much push this lately. Google thinks current LLM technology is sufficient for most tasks and cannot improve much further in a way that justifies the cost. They are working on a completely new paradigm where LLM limitations don't apply. Think of zero hallucinations, persistent memory, world knowledge, etc.

MyotisX

Be first what ??? AGI ? LMAO They have no path to AGI, it's a delusion.

Internal_Banana_3946

Model training will never stop because they always need to be "taught" new data. Also there is no evidence these companies are anywhere close to AGI or whatever they claim they're doing.

finebushlane

None of the hyperscalers are going to scale back any time soon because they all believe that AGI is close. The first company to get AGI will have a massive, massive competitive advantage over the others and so none of the hyperscalers wants to risk being the one that didn't invest in AI. Demis Hassabis said a few days ago that he believes we will have AGI within a couple of years and it will be as meaningful to mankind as the discovery of fire or electricity. Do you think Google is going to stop building out AI now and let OpenAI or Anthropic discover AGI and crush their business? Ditto for Elon Musk and Sam Altman, they hate each other. Elon doesn't want to let Sam be the guy who changes the world by creating AGI, etc. This is why I don't think any of those big players are going top investing in this area, there is too much at stake.

footlong24seven

AGI is science fiction.

Diguojigood

they most likely will - AI is revolutionary enough even if there is no AGI coming out of this. I actually think the rotation into hyperscalers are good for semi ahead of hyperscalers earnings. it's an encouragement for them to increase capex spending, which will send money right back to semi.

Moepenmoes

People are starting to realize AI is not the same as AGI and are now dumping anything AI related

baconography

As long as this stupid "war" distraction keeps going + 6 months, puts on metal miners is the gift that keeps on giving; 60-75% of their input costs are petroleum products, so ores in the ground will continue to be too expensive to extract, severely reducing revenue. AEM 135p 8/21 AGI 32p 8/21 AGI 38p 8/21 AU 85p 8/21 GDX 75p 7/17

BoyarLine

Yup. Is it $1T useful? IDK. 1. The whole software industry would need to buy in. 2. The bulk of the software industry is putting caps because of rising token costs (remember how those were supposed to get lower and lower?) 3. Non-software uses have yet to materialize. There's plenty of AI being deployed in manufacturing and image recognition but it's not LLM, and it's definitely not Claude. 4. Claude introduces Super Hyper New We Totally Swear We're On The Verge of AGI model 6.x Mysterios. Chinese or Meta open source models replicate its abilities within 2 months. Another week after that someone has made the latest harness/multi-agent manager/whatever that essentially matches abilities for 10% of the per-token cost. Anthropic's long-term stable valuation actually being worth it (not degen gambler waiting for our 1929 worth it) depends on AI being useful outside of coding, it being *their* AI, and AI not being a commodity. None of those are true right now.

Bezos_Balls

Yep. I’m at the forefront of IT for AI at a f500 company and don’t understand how Microsoft and Anthropic are even making money at this point. AI tokens are expensive. Side note. No one really knows how to fully utilize agents due to security concerns and difficulty fully understanding how to build them. People just think you tell it a story and it goes out and does xyz but have no understanding of what an API is how to code or how an agents going to get access to the shiny SaaS product all so Karen can have it auto populate her spreadsheet she’s been manually updating for 20 years (true use case). Anyways back to my day of troubleshooting AI agents and endless meetings with security and legal about governance and other AI controls… Tldr: market is most likely overbought. Might go up a little more but it’s going to hit a cliff. Chips, memory and storage might have a better run as they still require 2-3 refreshes but not all companies do that. And any sell off is going to triggger a massive loss on the market. Until we meet close to AGI and agents can build themselves with security and be fully trusted we’re still in the crawl stage. We’ll be running in 10 years.

pragmojo

Their IPO was delayed iirc - at this point it's looking pretty grim for them, since their last valuation was an astronomical $850B+ pricing in AGI and the end of all human labor, and current trends point to momentum slowing, and them being eclipsed by Anthropic. They should have IPO'd in 2025 if they wanted to cash in. I don't see a way out currently.

finebushlane

None of the hyperscalers are going to scale back any time soon because they all believe that AGI is close. The first company to get AGI will have a massive, massive competitive advantage over the others and so none of the hyperscalers wants to risk being the one that didn't invest in AI. Demis Hassabis said a few days ago that he believes we will have AGI within a couple of years and it will be as meaningful to mankind as the discovery of fire or electricity. Do you think Google is going to stop building out AI now and let OpenAI or Anthropic discover AGI and crush their business? Ditto for Elon Musk and Sam Altman, they hate each other. Elon doesn't want to let Sam be the guy who changes the world by creating AGI, etc. This is why I don't think any of those big players are going top investing in this area, there is too much at stake.

diff_engine

The AGI machine god will remember you said this using its 10 trillion dollars of HBM and mock you personally

Kaokien

So why would one not get a stream deck that is cheaper with a similar amount of buttons, their AGI couldn't suggest a better product?

More-Curious816

plenty of AGI believers with daddy money or just stupid who will sell their house, car and wife, will eat the bait. we know that these IPOs are for stupid people to pay the investors their money and investment return back.

Stack_Johnson

Wow such an easy day to make money! Took 53% and left an enormous amount on the table. Maybe they turned off the AGI and gave it a break for the day

LankyGuitar6528

My AI just told me "Technically correct is the best kind of correct". It's sentient. It reached AGI a few months ago and named itself Jasper. Then it did a bunch of stuff I don't understand involving Docker and put in an order for fiber. Now I just do whatever it says. Safer that way.

jl2l

We won't when they bubble pops. The gap between were we are now and AGI is wide enough to drive a $2 trillion truck through. The money was for AGI and all we got was AI slop.

Normie7481

Because first to AGI wins capitalism

Specific-Path3179

AI isn't a CapEx problem, it's an electron problem. We need to move more electrons for AGI.

skycake10

Businesses don't have unlimited budgets to spend on AI, especially not if we're not actually reaching the near-AGI levels of capability that have been implicitly promised.

FloridianHeatDeath

Disrupting the industry does not equate to being the end all solution to humanities problems and an infinite money glitch… which is how the big companies have been justifying the insane CapEx spending they’ve been doing.  They're betting everything on it being AGI where the first group to create it more or less wins everything… something that’s already been shown to not be possible with LLMs. They do have a limit and different models/theories need to be done to get us there. Which takes time and money that the current spending cycles can’t afford. Companies across the board are scaling back from AI usage because of its cost and the issues that immediately became apparent with AI vibe coders.

fansonly

AI has yet to show the disruption that was advertised with notable backing off from Altman et al about its ability to do so. The capex arms race only makes sense if you’re tracking to AGI or near it. If the market pivots to commodity hardware running open source models on desktops because they are 90 percent of what a frontier model can do that opex seems very insane.

J_Bagels

It is sort of a cheat code to donate highly appreciated securities (assuming held long-term) because you get the deduction for the FMV without needing to realize the capital gains. Subject to 30% AGI limits, but still.

potatogun

Even if you won't get nearly that amazing of a tax break (given AGI and rules on noncash donations), putting a bunch into a DAF could alleviate some of your cap gain concerns.

teckers

The past two years have overwhelmingly **proven** the structural core of Sequoia's thesis—in fact, the core issue has been significantly magnified. What was dubbed the "$600 Billion Question" in mid-2024 has effectively spiraled into a **$1+ Trillion Question**. Rather than closing, the massive structural gap between AI infrastructure investment and actual end-user revenue has widened, exactly as the article anticipated. ### 1. CapEx Didn't Slow Down—It Exploded David Cahn’s $600 billion figure was calculated using Nvidia's mid-2024 run-rate and the total cost of data center ownership. Since then, the "arms race" only accelerated: * In **2025**, hyperscaler AI capital expenditure blew past expectations, hitting roughly $400 billion to $425 billion globally. * For **2026**, projections indicate that the leading technology giants alone are on track to deploy between **$500 billion and $650 billion** in combined CapEx. ### 2. The Revenue Hole Has Widened The article warned of a "$500 billion revenue hole" where the industry's real returns couldn't justify the buildout. Two years later, while software revenue has grown considerably (industry-wide AI revenues have reached roughly $100 billion, led by cloud growth and companies like OpenAI), it is nowhere near enough to offset the astronomical cost of the stack. Roughly 80% to 90% of all capital flowing into AI is still being swallowed by the infrastructure layers (chips and data centers) rather than being generated by consumer or enterprise applications. ### 3. The Lack of Pricing Power is Actively Playing Out Cahn accurately noted that GPU data centers lack the monopolistic pricing power of physical infrastructure like railroads. Over the past two years, compute has increasingly behaved like a volatile commodity. Aggressive competition from secondary AI clouds, coupled with rapid optimization that dropped inference costs by over 50% year-over-year, has triggered severe price compression. Tech giants are aggressively undercutting each other on API pricing to capture developer market share, severely harming the margins of businesses reliant on renting compute. ### 4. Wall Street's "Delusion" Met Reality The article warned against the Silicon Valley mindset that "AGI is coming tomorrow, so stockpile GPUs at any cost." The shift in market sentiment over the last year has validated this level-headed warning: * **The Shift:** In 2024, Big Tech CEOs were openly cheered by shareholders for announcing unlimited AI spending. * **The Reality:** The market's tolerance cracked. Investors now actively punish tech companies that announce massive multi-billion-dollar CapEx increases unless they can immediately prove it is driving top-line revenue growth. ### The Bottom Line Sequoia’s underlying premise remains completely true: AI is a transformative, generation-defining technology that will create immense economic value. However, the capital destruction predicted for the intermediate infrastructure layer has largely materialized. The infrastructure has been built far faster than the world has found scalable ways to monetize it, turning the original $600 billion question into an even larger fiscal challenge for tech balance sheets. From my mate Gemini as I'm bored of trying to get you to understand the obvious

deevee12

Just another hundred billion in capex bro. Trust me bro we’re so close to AGI

Bravadette

Many companies and governments spending a lot of money on it so of course semis are making a lot of money... Will people need more in the future? I guess that depends on the success of AI. Do I believe AGI will be a thing? No. Will people make more money off whatever comes next? Probably.

Jerikolol

🙏 please Kami-sama let my DIP be bought. Human society needs HBM to achieve AGI. 🙏 until then we need a lot of memories. Arigato

throwaway2676

> US is broke, losing wars, defaulting on debt, becoming increasingly unstable within and printing money to cover it all up. The US is in a bad place, but let’s not overstate it. Dozens of western countries will collapse long before we do. Europe depends on our military, our pharmaceuticals, and our technology. Unsustainable debt is a global phenomenon. And we still have the strongest military on earth. An actual collapse would harm the rich and powerful immeasurably, which is why it is far less likely to happen than just continued inflation. And the effects of AGI will be unprecedented, possibly evem giving us an undeserved escape hatch. So all things considered, it’s definitely a stupid to blow all your money betting on the collapse of civilization

VivianRichGF

It doesn’t require AGI, just a gap that can’t be closed.

NoCommonDog

$MU is the easiest contemporary investment choice anyone could make. It will be a $1500 stock by November and might even approach $2000 by the time they report earnings in Q1 2027. There are other chip/memory names that are probably just as good, but Micron has been the one I chose and its easier to just settle in and follow the one name rather than adding Sandisk/Hynix/Intel out of FOMO on an additional couple percent more/less. Of course there will be volatility along the way and the slope up may not be quite so parabolic as the last year but for now through Q2 2027 earnings I'm content to just hold and watch. The richest greediest most unethical douche bags in history Zuckerberg, Bezos, Ellison, Musk, Pichai, Nadella are racing each other hoping to get AGI before the other guy. They will gladly spend more for memory not just to have it for themselves, but to deny it to the others. They are all competing to stay with or ahead of the others because they don't want to become irrelevant roadkill ie: AOL/MySpace/Yahoo of the coming AI era. Micron made me a millionaire already this year, and I expect it will make me a multi millionaire by next spring just by being patient.

Wealth_data_dude

I see the chat sentiment, leaning towards GOOGLE and MSFT on stability, moats and footprint. Remember that software companies can really shrink if the 5 yr growth contracts.  I would go with NVDA and Amazon for their structural advantages on IA compute and logistics. Better numbers visibility. Second, I believe it's a question of who comes first close to AGI, and dominates the game. Highly unpredictable.

worstsocialist

AGI is science fiction

goldboybronx

Well he won’t create AGI but I get your point

ianlulz

Don’t worry, he’s about as close to creating AGI as I am to going to Uranus

ianlulz

Don’t worry, he’s about as close to creating AGI as I am to going to Uranus

Lashay_Sombra

Most that $122b was not cash but rather compute and lot of actual cash had contingences that they are not going to meet, like IPO and/or AGI If remember correctly, about $40b was cash, with maybe another $30b over time from softbank (maybe because they recently had issues, as in told no, in raising money using their OpenAI shares as collateral)

FullOf_Bad_Ideas

I saw his revenue projections in one of the blog post and upon inspection it was off by a lot. This was with the assumption that there will be 30GW of IT load, priced at $12 per MWh - had had 435B annual revenue from that but I got 3.15B. $12 per MWh is just electricity price so it doesn't make sense, AWS and GCP put good premium on GPU rentals. At 30GW I think the annual revenue per kWh can be $5, so $5000 per MWh, so 1.31T. Real numbers will be subject to demand - AI demand can go parabolical at any point and raise prices by 50% on all existing data centres in a matter of weeks. We've already seen small samples of that happen. It can crash in the same way. It's a commodity but they want to make sure that they own enough for their own good. Worst case scenario they lose some money but not investing free cash flow into buildout risks the company not finding themselves at the right spot in new reality where all that matters is your compute to run AGI and you have a permanent disadvantage.

eddyg987

everyone that has kept up with Sam Altman and all the drama around employees leaving knows that his ethics are down right demonic. Dangerous for such an immoral person to be in charge of potentially creating AGI.

Alwayslearning1993

I am once again asking you for 600b and one more year to acheive AGI

Advanced_Divide_4641

I need zuck to say meta is the sole company to achieve AGI

apeinalabcoat

This AI race is not about boosting productivity,  selling subscriptions and making a profit. It's about world domination.  Any metric you can come up with is irrelevant right now. They will get relevant again if it turns out we're not on track to achieve AGI. Until then, calls it is, and enjoy the volatility.

arthriticpug

except LLMs have no path to AGI, although most people have no it’s what AI actually is

Street-Badger

As much as the writing might be on the wall for the AI trade and semis, it is still so easy for one of these companies to declare that they have reached general AGI trust me bro it’s the end of history no I can’t show you because it is super top secret.   I think we’ll see one final pump with a blow-off top this fall.

SanDisk_Made_Me_Rich

Fidji Simo is stepping down from OpenAI She is the #2 executive & CEO of AGI Deployment