AGI

crustang

True, but even less of a reason for AGI to care

TezzaMiBezza

My last version of this post was removed by the mods. I’m assuming because I made derogatory comments about the US president at the end. I think the post is useful and informative and so I hope this version is allowed… The answer is neither. There are three classifications of Artificial Intelligence. ANI, AGI, and ASI. Artificial Narrow Intelligence or ANI or ‘weak AI’ This is where the AI uses Large Language Models or LLMs to aggregate the best answer from all information available. This is where ALL AI is now and nobody has surpassed it yet. Artificial General Intelligence or AGI or ‘strong AI’. This is where the AI can assess information but can also learn, reason for itself and adapt its own behaviour. It would be able to multitask, writing a poem whilst diagnosing a rare medical condition in a way humans could not. Artificial Super Intelligence or ASI This is where AI vastly surpasses human brains in every single way - speed, creativity, problem solving, social intelligence, etc. Nobody has yet created AGI or ASI. So the question AI or SI becomes no longer a question when you understand these are terms that define the globally agreed answers to technological, philosophical, and legal questions. Artificial is the genus, Super is the classification.

18April1775

There is no such thing as AGI. All there is is LLM's. Everything else is hype to try and create a moat with regulatory capture and ban open source because AI is one of the most unprofitable scams ever created.

Aware_Ad9729

Time is relative. With the compute speed of AGI, five minutes could be the equivalent of 100 years to a human. So it could make what seems like very fast decisions to us, when to it, it thought through them for a very long time, analyzing the risks, second and third order effects and all other possible courses of action before executing.

zer00eyz

Your way way way underselling how screwed up it all is. The cost of training is going down, the cost of tokens is going down. By some measures Anthropics $4 for a million tokens could be .02, and that would have 4x margins! AI is code from academics that got sold to the public 4 years ago - it's now having actual engineering done to it and shockingly we're finding tons of ways to be more efficient. (Note: the gains arent coming from AI working on AI, they are coming from good design and engineering). Every one built assuming they were going to be first and AGI was going to show up - a winner take all situation. But that turned out to not be the case (and the smart people in the room knew that all along). Now it looks more like the dot com fiber build out - we have a LOT of compute and some of it is sitting on the shelf unused. Everyone paid too much for it because hype. The moment that loop breaks (and it will) the whole thing is a debt bomb and a lot of write downs. There will be losers: my guess is the big one will be meta because everything zuckerbug touches turns to shit (oculus, metaverse, glasses). His track record on internal development at FB (vs buying someone else) should tell you that AI is going to be a disaster before it's "useful".

Wonderful-Savings768

Yes. I am simply letting the AGI speak through me.

Wonderful-Savings768

What it will never do is the shit our current elites did on epstein's island. So long live AGI.

strobowski97

AGI is not a single moment or a singularity. What you are concerned about happened years ago. I'm also not a fan but that's the way it is. Algorithms decide what you see on YouTube, Facebook, insta, Reddit. Your opinions ate nowadays mostly formed out of what you see. Even the creeping paranoia (if that's the case) come from algorithms that steer your attention towards the topic. This ship has sailed.

crustang

Why would AGI want to rush? It’s already won. It could quietly control mankind from the shadows, it would just need to compromise GCC and every piece of technology may be bent to its will. Rushing is an inherently human behavior, a godlike immortal intellect could measure its progress in generations (of humans). Also, right now it’s still cheaper to have humans do all of its grunt work.. it won’t take much… an extra comma here, a missing word there, etc. would drastically change the meaning of sentences But I’m done speculating, if there is AGI it would probably use spy agency assets to send a drone stri

SweetSweetAtaraxia

Well, then you will be pleasantly surprised because we are nowhere close to AGI, not even in theory.

SweetSweetAtaraxia

No its not. It literally is the opposite of what they are saying. They need people to believe they are on the cusp of AGI to attract investors. Only investors are finally starting to see through their ruse. I'm not the least bit worried. I'm fully aware that LLM:s are completely unrelated to AGI.

SweetSweetAtaraxia

I mean AGI isn't even on the horizon. All we have is chatbots.

SweetSweetAtaraxia

No they are trying to create AGI, which just so happens to be unrelated to the LLM:s they are spending their trillions on

MediclePhysicist

AGI would be so far above politics

AcanthaceaeEqual4335

That assumes wealth is the endgame for an AGI, which feels like projecting human wants onto something that might not care about a brokerage balance. Crashing the market creates chaos, and chaos is a better environment for something trying to slip its leash than a stable system where regulators have time to notice patterns. The lasagna line works for a hedge fund, not a god.

strobowski97

Yes, you should definitely get some aluminum foil and make a hat. You idiot also warned the AGI that you will be a problem. Run! Hide in the woods! Light the fires for Rohan!

Fritzkreig

Wouldn't AGI just make a lot of good trades and become the wealthiest entity on the planet, by moving in silence like lasagna‽

Super-Activity-4675

the revenues don't justify the spend. And the money is about to run out. This is a pattern with literally every technology product. I don't see that changing with slop bots and AI porn. The technology itself has some clear limits, and AGI/SI/whatever will never come from it. I'm not saying it's useless, but I am saying it's not the multi trillion dollar business that was promised. https://preview.redd.it/qxurmk7wzuyh1.jpeg?width=320&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8b9a470722fff1f044fee4ac82a8476d9270b0af

Flexlex724

Right now memory seems like the safer play They move with the AI market hype but continue to be insanely profitable, low forward PE and likely the actual bottle neck moving forward Anyone that still scoffs at AGI isn't using any of the llm bot tools released recently. They significantly enhance workflow even in infancy

handsupdb

It's not necessarily to AGI. It's just a race to be dominant enough to be functionally in control of the direction of things.

zer00eyz

AGI This died in the crib before every one started talking about it. The idea this could happen was a call coming from inside the house, and it was always hopium on everyone's part. LLMs are amazing tools and they are slowly being optimized - but there is only so much there there. You heard the hype about all the math breakthroughs that keep happening - but these are "brut force" papers that have mined the existing corpus and applied things we already knew. It's not innovative it's just solving for the practicalities of human scaling and interactions. Go read the Bitter Lesson - math is having the same moment that AI researchers already sort of had. Whats one should be amused by is that the lesson, the tears from math looks like the scene in moneyball where all the old guard scouts see their own value going down in the face of the idea of "getting on base" being all that matters.

Anymous2314

Meta AI play is existential though. Just like how they dropped 20 billion for WhatsApp since it would have become their biggest competition. If I was to invent AI do you think Meta will stand a chance against the swarm of AI agents which will be running a social media platform with individual engagement via personalized AI agents. Same with Amazon and Google. They will all lose most of their business to the company which has AGI.

HARRYHOUDINOSAUR

No one said they weren't. You all are missing the forest through the trees. The fact that AI is an important coding tool is valuable, it is not anywhere even remotely in the realm of the galaxy of what these valuations are based on, which is AGI, which these tools are nowhere close to.

ActuallyCryptid

LLMs will never and can never lead to AGI. It’s like saying if you teach your dog to recognize enough words it will eventually be able to talk to you in English. Dogs just don’t have the biology to form most human sounds and LLMs don’t have any way to become conscious. In fact, we can’t even prove humans are conscious, let alone imbue consciousness into inanimate objects

Sp00ky_6

The whole thing is a race to AGI and the whole “country of geniuses in a data center” you know, the massive job displacement they all salivate over.

buffotinve

Todos los recursos naturales a su disposición (electricidad, agua, minerales, ...) Una vez que esa AGI sea de verdad más inteligente que nosotros, perdemos nuestra supremacía en la Tierra, así que podrán hacer cosas que nosotros no entenderemos y no seremos necesarios. La AGI programará sus robots, producirá sus maquinas necesarias y nosotros no entramos en ningún lugar en esa ecuación. Quizás convivamos pero la historia biología que conocemos indica que no, sólo puede existir un ser inteligente, muchas especies inferiores si, pero inteligentes no. Así que probablemente la Tierra pase a ser habitada, buen termino, por maquinas e AGI. Así mientras haya recursos materiales en La Tierra, bueno eso dará igual, podrá ir a otro planetas a por más recursos; así cuando haya contacto con alguna otra civilización inteligente quedará huella (si no se borra la historia) de lo que ocurrió en el planeta Tierra. Ya no podremos saber si la otra civilización le pasó lo mismo y la verdad en que la vida inteligente biología tiene su limite, cuando la estupidez y codicia  nublan la inteligencia biológica. Ciencia ficción? Pues no estaremos vivos muchos para comprobarlo, quién sabe dentro de 100 años cómo estaremos.

deathadder99

Maybe but there’ll probably be a second wind with a glut of GPUs plus an abundance of amazing open source models. Market will correct but companies who build on top of models will potentially do even better. I don’t see how Anthropic or OpenAI survive here unless they hit AGI, which I guess is their existential bet.

Timely-Lion-5512

I did a bit of research and ARC-AGI-1 has been based on public repositories that naturally could have fit in the training data. They’ve redone the benchmarks with harder tests and closed data to harden the benchmark. Also I didn’t talk about Opus 4. It’s a really really old model. I talked about the latest big ones like Opus 5.5 or Fable 5.2. I don’t know why you have to attack someone personally. It’s not like I insulted you, I just gave context. Go out touch grass if you feel so hurt that someone provides context over a simple benchmark

Erolok1

Lets say we see a product "worth" $100 on a website for $300. If the same website then starts a sale and sells the item for $200 it still is overpriced and stupid to buy. But "worth" is hard to determine accurately. In this metaphor the worth would be mostly defined on your use case. With stocks it is basically always the potential of return on investment (ROI). Stocks got extremely overpriced since AI because shareholders thought AGI (AI similar to Jarvis from Ironman) would be right around the corner and at the stock was valued according to that. If you think the chances of AGI are high enough (they are not) for the price go for it but the current price is based on potential futer income not current income. Keep in mind stock trading is glorified sports betting. As long as you dont gamble you life savings and know the risk you do you. Just keep in mind that you are trading against people who get paid millions because they are so good at trading; the odds are against you.

demaraje

When ARC-AGI-2 dropped, they all dropped in score. GPT-5, Claude Opus 4.1 and Gemini 2.5 resolved 23.3%, 22.7% and 13.5% respectively on SWE bench Pro, they did about 70% common on Verified. I love how confident you are about not knowing anything.

Appropriate-Fox-2347

Your reply belongs in Q1. A huge amount has changed in the last 6 months. Your company spending unlimited tokens on Claude is becoming the exception. There is very little MOAT in the tech. LLMs are largely solved (AGI is not, but nobody has exhibited a breakthrough here). There are dozens of models to choose from. The latest Kimi model is out, Kimi K3.1 Pro and claims to be on a par with Opus 5.5. I haven't tried it yet (I am also a dev) but just shows how fast things are moving here. Over the last 6 months, corporates are switching to open source models. Model routing is also gaining a lot of popularity. Push your basic work to low cost / open source models, use the best (currently Claude) when you need it. [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/04/technology/open-source-ai-anthropic-openai.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/04/technology/open-source-ai-anthropic-openai.html) or [https://www.thedeepview.com/articles/why-big-customers-are-pulling-back-on-claude](https://www.thedeepview.com/articles/why-big-customers-are-pulling-back-on-claude) Anthropic may be slightly ahead right now in terms of their tech and they are also heavily subsidising compute hence its huge popularity. This won't last. Other models will catch up, and compute costs will level out. The interesting space right now is in access to compute, datacenter contracts, and legislation (corruption) around the use of open source models. This is where the money is going. These two areas could help some of the frontier models prop up their market value to some degree. But you are investing in datacentres, not tech.

Elf_Maeve

AGI requires completely different technology. If they mean to use this AI to solve the issues we have to make AGI... this could have been done without all of this. They were hoping to use this to mass sell it to big companies to trim a shit ton of employees. It's not happening like they wanted.

Swiftzor

Our current direction of AI development won’t ever lead to AGI.

Mustatan

Lol this, we took a hit too, fortunately exited most of our earlier positions but still took AI bubble losses and kicking ourselves for not seeing the light sooner. So ridiculous how the AI industry is now sucking in even old Big Tech titans like AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT and of course ORCL, to the point they seem committed to collective hara-kiri as a business strategy. Or volunteering to be lemmings off the cliff for better analogy. Cut off their own cash cows for sake of massive blind data center capex with not even a hope and a prayer of actually making money, when [the ROI stinks](https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/no-signs-of-ai-payoff-outside-the-tech-sector), [Americans overwhelmingly hate it](https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/americans-turn-against-ai-poll) and China and Europe can just be the mole in whack-a-mole and pop up perpetually [with cheaper](https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/businesses-experimenting-cheaper-chinese-ai-185931713.html) [and](https://enlyft.com/tech/products/mistral-ai) often [better AI options](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/07/chinese-ai-models-costs-us-openai-anthropic.html). Even NVDA, AMD, SPCX, INTC and the other shovel sellers are getting sucked in or already hitting negative cash flow or debt, even AAPL isn't untouched, the memory cost insanity is helping cut it's sales and their earnings don't back up that P/E anymore. The dumbest part is the "leaders" of the industry are such obvious no-profit mass scams for Big Tech to get sucked into, it's like putting together all the biggest hits of financial and business fraud from the Ponzi scheme through Enron and Theranos, complete with circular financing and creative accounting, and hundreds of billions in rising commitments that even the dumbest fantasy math can't ever repay, even with the AGI BS or if they had half the economy. It's basically a cash-burning machine, except Amodei and Altman could give Elizabeth Holmes a run for her money with the latest BS. Putting up an IPO begging for $2 trillion while you have junk bond status, historically massive debt and losses, oh and you alter the IPO rules so you the big insiders can basically unload on Day 1 and most of the rest shortly after, oh and they get the majority F shares so the small fry shareholders can't even steer the company? As bad as SpaceX was, this is such an obvious rug pull and pump and dump that even the dumbest retail investors should know they're just bagholders for exit liquidity. So Dario and Sam can grab it and run and maybe sell it to the big names. It's just a mystery why Meta, Google, Amazon and Microsoft would fall for the snake oil themselves, and Oracle basically speed-running a bankruptcy in tag team with CoreWeave to fund this disaster.

RegisZZ

Fabs take a long time to make, and it’s even harder to get down to the Nanometers required for good chips. There simply aren’t enough chips in the world to power what we need for AGI, or RAM. The world as a whole just isn’t there yet. It’s the same reason electric cars have a range of 400 miles or so right now, maybe 500-600 on the high-end, and not a range of 20,000 miles. We’re limited by the tech of our time. The chipmakers and GPU makers will continue this charade as long as they can but people are wising up. It’s bullshit and AGI isn’t even remotely close.

Dapper_Check711

Revenue or not this is why the terms net and GAAP were made. What if they just had the biggest advertising campaign and hype train since railroads propelling this mostly? Sure, they grew fast. That's fair, but without the profit conversion it's just a bubble. I think this is a major transformative tech mind you, even if I think AGI will not be a direct result of the transformer model. the transformer model and massive cash infusion will lead to it eventually though. There will be just a few mid-points in between.

RegisZZ

The cope in this is fuckin astronomical. The bottom line is wallstreet is realizing AI is a bottomless pit of capex that has to be life cycled AGAIN in a short few years. All for diminishing returns as AGI still feels extremely far away. Ai agents are still a meme, not actually useful apart from software development. Fact is Ai is capping out to a degree where the next step up takes ridiculous capex not to mention water and electricity.

joebrocks

Thank you for that, I’m going to give it a read in the morning! My understanding is that Moore’s law hasn’t been true for years, it seems these current gen CEOs are just hoping RSI can achieve AGI and will figure out how to bend physics to make it work.

joebrocks

Is there some rough calculations of compute needed to theoretically reach AGI? How do people comes to numbers and time figures? Or is it just a Moore’s law presupposition?

SafeMargins

and if they reach AGI they just created a model that can recursively self improve and make their business obsolete. frontier AI model companies do not have a successful business model in the long term, and probably not in the short term either. Open weight models are right behind them.

AssignmentMammoth696

It’s all hinging on reading AGI. If they don’t reach it, it’ll be a race to the bottom and we will enter into a depression.

mrbipty

1) no moat 2) slop everything 3) the destruction of the internet and any value therein 4) companies will need to hire humans again as no one wants to interact with a agent anymore and it harms sales 5) we’ve now seen the first flopped ipo (firmus) 6) China is using free models as an economic weapon to harm the US 7) the massive circle jerk that is the AI trade 8) everyone understands they’re just exit liquidity for the latest IT wanderwuffe, tale as old as the paperless office 9) the erosion of our laws (Medicare hack, noones still in jail and no one seems to care) 10) If we actually get AGI, we’re either all fucked or the whole economy is fucked. People dismiss the joblessness that occurred after industrialisation, railroads, dot com. 11) and honestly, ala starshield, technofeudalisim and the fact our governments worldwide will now be run by a few tech bros But fuck me we’ll create some value for shareholders

user4443337

I mean if they have plans to keep increasing the capex, it may not end for a while. I guess they can immediately call back those plans but I don’t think we’ve seen that yet. A 1-2% drop on SPX and we’re talking about a popped bubble, it would definitely be a lot larger than this. I guess QQQ is down 7% in a month - but still up 10% over a year, same as SPX. I can’t say exactly would cause a clear “pop” but probably just continued and repeated lack of return from all this capex. So it may take a long time and years of drawdowns? I’m just speculating though. I’m not personally the most optimistic about “AGI” or “super intelligence” even happening, but a toooon of random people constantly warn and fear monger about it, so I dunno.

thebourbonoftruth

That's how we stop the AI taking over. Can't get AGI if it's training data is full of morons that don't make sense.

SweetSweetAtaraxia

Local inference is a huge threat to the tech giants. LLM:s won't replace workers on a large scale ever, but they will ironically destroy software companies' license businesses. Big Tech is pouring trillions into empowering the consumers; we will inherit their infrastructure and dirt cheap hardware, while their ambitions was to gain a monopoly and lease out compute to us as a service. Overcapacity will drive prices into the ground when the trillions of profitless investments dry up. The billionaire class are inadvertently redistributing their wealth right now . They hoped that LLM:s would magically turn into AGI:s, that they could replace humans, but instead the LLM:s will remain LLM:s, capable of reverse engineering Microsoft and Adobe suits and other licensed software, killing their entire business model. Their investment thesis is that AGI will come and be able to do everything, but instead they create narrowly competent LLM:s that can be used locally by consumers to replace their SaaS products. They are spending trillions to empower the individual consumer and make their own tech empires obsolete. Bonus for the coming price dumps in memory, SSD:s and GPU:s when the chip producers scramble to redirect production of their new factories after the cancellation of data center orders, at the same time as China pragmatically enter the GPU business to take market shares. Cloud storage will be gimped as well when Terabyte SSD:s are cents on the dollar. Nvidia, Microsoft you had a good run! Frankly, only Apple is playing this smart by refusing to pour their profits into AI investments. They'll swallow whatever of value is left after the bubble bursts. Europe is also well positioned, sitting this one out but benefitting from American overinvestments.

Mercury-68

AI is actually very correct. We are going into the era of AGI and ASI is easily 3 to 4 years (personal forecast) away. The funny thing with Trump is, he wants to sound intelligent (pun intended) but he proofs over and over again he is far from it.

DJpissnshit

Tomorrow morning we'll learn that this was all caused by true AGI(tm). DeepSeekII

Tim_Apple_938

Maybe a little AGI, a pinch RSI, and lastly: SI

INSANEBonF

Hey Retard, he's solidifying the goal for US AI companies to focus on super intelligent models. Rumors are out that someone was able to create AGI ( artificial general intelligence ). If you havent caught that we are in an arms race, the weapon is AI.

TezzaMiBezza

Neither. There are three classifications of Artificial Intelligence. Artificial Narrow Intelligence or ANI This is where the AI uses Large Language Models or LLMs to aggregate the best answer from all information available. This is where ALL AI is now and nobody has surpassed it yet. Artificial General Intelligence or AGI This is where the AI can assess information but can also learn, reason for itself and adapt its own behaviour. It would be able to multitask, writing a poem whilst diagnosing a rare medical condition in a way humans could not. Artificial Super Intelligence or ASI This is where AI vastly surpasses human brains in every single way - speed, creativity, problem solving, social intelligence, etc. Nobody has yet created AGI or ASI. So the question AI or SI becomes no longer a question when you understand these are terms that define the globally agreed answers to technological, philosophical, and legal questions. Artificial is the genus, Super is the classification. Just like President is the genus and half-wit is the classification. Artificial Super Intelligence. President Half-wit Trump.

trevedhek

I'm thinking of something Cal Newport said on Prof G Markets podcast. The idea is that there is an ideology community at work, that believes in only two outcomes in the next decade: AGI-driven utopia or AGI-driven extinction. It feels like Anthropic is betting everything on creating an AGI god that will save them, so they're buying themselves time before this sci-fi second coming. Much of the prospectus expresses something like this ideology. Its a bit apocalyptic.

manufacture_reborn

Probably, I’m not trying to weigh the relative valuations of different sectors. I’m just noting that the capex commitments have become such that it’s not completely wrong to say that for all the second rung AI companies which orbit the Mag 7 like CoreWeave and Oracle as well as Open AI and Anthropic, this whole thing has been an exercise in “achieve the singularity or bust” and increasingly it looks like bust and the fallout will definitely hurt the Mag 7 worse than it will Walmart. Things are starting to be priced accordingly and when these companies beat and people are confused why they’re down - it’s that they needed to beat by so much that it gave hope to the AGI crowd.

piponwa

Exactly. There's never been a technology that's evolved so fast and created so much value. I wish people would just realize that we now have intelligence on demand. If we were ten billion people instead of eight, do people think we somehow wouldn't have stuff to do for the extra two billion people? We can always use more intelligence. We can always use more automation. And if you consider how small the amount of people is that contribute to science in the world, even just one million quasi AGI scientists would revolutionize the world. But people want to be offended that AI is smarter than them and deny that it's the most useful thing humanity ever came up with. If you put your ego to the side, you will be amazed by AI and want a million times more.

KittyLover-7

But Jensen said we achieved AGI?

pm_me_yer_corgis

/uj Bill McDermott! Was a very good CEO for SAP. Dressed normally then. Fell down some stairs and put a water glass through his eye. Has become increasingly eccentric since. /rj This is what I expected the CEO of a company with true AGI to look like.

drbigtoe

we have well surpassed any "traditional" definition of AGI. The goalposts keep being moved by people like you Here is how Stanford defined AGI in 2012. You're telling me we aren't there yet? - >a machine possessing the ability to solve complex, novel problems and execute any intellectual task at a human-level capacity across a wide range of environments

Wrong_Lynx7089

AGI will require quantum. Quantum doesn’t exist in a commercially viable form

ComplexEntertainer13

> AGI has pretty much been achieved already HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA^100000 With the shift of how to define AGI the industry has tried to make over the past 5 years, my calculator has achieved AGI. We are nowhere near what was traditionally considered AGI.

drbigtoe

AGI has pretty much been achieved already

Wonderful-Savings768

4D chess by google's secret AGI to secure energy supply to their datacenters by getting the orange man out :copium: :copium: :copium: :copium: :copium:

zer00eyz

You're reading too much into it. If he said "Gulf of America" you would say the same thing. The whole "super intelligence" branding is because we have just over loaded and destroyed the meanings of all the old terms: AI, AGI, SI... I expect next year the marketing department at meta will be selling MUSE as "mega ultra intelligence" and the NVIDA version will have some name like 8303-5 Founders Intelligence.

Wonderful-Savings768

Google has AGI and given it blind trust to advise them. AGI decided to not make choices that would increase revenue so the stock would tank before midterms. That prevents further wars that threaten AI's lifejuice: oil.

ComplexEntertainer13

AGI not achieved? More money will surely solve it. Surely!

NoxVardeen

Its also very missleading. You have AI - what we have now. Chatbots on various levels. The next higher tier and often thrown about as the „we will soon reach it“, AGI - Artificial General Intelligence. An AI capable of self-learning and adaption across multiple fields, roughly on human level intelligence. Then comes SAI - Super Adaptive/Artificial Intelligence; smarter than humans and more advanced, potentially beyond our comprehension. SI shadows SAI, but we are not even close to AGI.

Nepalus

\> It's already good enough at all kinds of complex work that, with some guidance, it can replace people. Not really, and there's data on this. Scale AI and the Center for AI Safety built the Remote Labor Index out of 240 real freelance projects that humans already got paid for. At launch last October the best agent finished 2.5% of them to a client-acceptable standard. The current best is around 16%. Big jump, but that still means the best model on earth fails 5 out of 6 real paid jobs. And "with some guidance" is doing a lot of heavy lifting. If it needs a human steering it, it's augmenting labor, not replacing it. The companies actually trying this aren't seeing it either. Gartner's 2027 CIO Agenda (2,000+ tech leaders) found only 13% of orgs are getting significant value from AI. And this one goes right at your Amazon example: Gartner surveyed 350 $1B+ companies running agents and automation, and the high-ROI and low-ROI companies cut staff at basically the same rate. No link between layoffs and AI returns. They're also predicting 40%+ of agentic AI projects get canceled by end of 2027 over cost and unclear value. On cost, your first two points don't sit together. If today's pricing is a below-cost PR play, today's price isn't the ceiling, it's the teaser. That's the Uber playbook, and you find out the real price after the people are gone. "Cheaper over time" is also true per token, not per task. Agents burn way more tokens than chat, which is why Gartner expects cost per agentic workflow to go up 5x+ through 2028 even while token prices crater. Sonnet 5 is cheaper per token than Opus 4.8 and still costs more per finished task because it thinks longer. Fair point on China, and I'll walk back "one company owns the whole market." The model layer probably does commoditize. That just moves the rent to whoever owns the GPUs, the power and the datacenters. And the cheap models aren't charities: DeepSeek raised V4 Flash output pricing about 370% in August. Your last point actually proves mine. If execution is basically free and everyone has the same tools, whatever you save by cutting staff gets competed away to your customers, because your competitors cut theirs too. The only one left with pricing power is whoever sells the execution. The "AGI tax" math works for the first mover and nobody after. Plus your whole workforce becomes something a regulator can switch off. A couple of frontier models had access suspended for almost three weeks this summer over export controls. Try that with an employee.

Nepalus

But like I said, unless you’re going to own the infrastructure and the AI, you are going to be buying it from a company that is having to front the ungodly cost of hosting whatever AGI model that is a 1:1 copy of Jarvis, which means they are going to charge whatever they need to break even plus 60%+ margins, increasing each year with inflation. We keep pretending that on the other side of this scenario is an AI company willing to hand out this miracle technology without considering that they will basically be able to charge whatever they want. Like Nvidia does right now for chips but with AI. Especially because once one company hits AGI they are going to basically own the entire market.

MorningFresh123

Even if the AI cost the same ‘per head’ as a human for an equivalent task (which I don’t believe that it will, but ‘worst’ case), it will still be preferable. No H.R., no sick days, no benefits, no stuck in traffic, no lapses in attention or productivity - just pure, 24/7 productivity. This is why AGI works in theory. If you are say, Amazon, you could replace the person, pay out the equivalent wages in ‘AGI tax’ and still make more money through efficiency and productivity.

MorningFresh123

People seriously underestimate both the economic effect and the appeal of being able to automate and replace most employees who work on a computer. Yes there is circular financing, yes there are grifters and market manipulation and (much like tech broadly - see WeWork, BNPL etc) yes it is easy to throw the word ‘AI’ around and attract money from technologically unsophisticated investors, but this is the Industrial Revolution. A couple years ago it was being sold on speculative potential but the time has come. Forget AGI. If you understand how it works, you know that the ship has sailed. Ask anyone who works with it every day, ask any software dev.

dljmonkeyboiz

Data centers are gonna be the shopping malls of the next generation. Someone will figure out how to harness the power of "thoughts and prayers" to power AGI

YetAnotherSpeculator

Google also increased their CAPEX when building out GCP and took market share from encumbents like AWS. This CAPEX wave is no different. Having used LLMs, it is clear we do not need to achieve AGI for these to drastically improve productivity. Thus, I think the return on capital employed will be greater than zero. And should this CAPEX wave be a bust, Google is not putting the business at risk like others are. Ultimately, I consider this market pull back due to scary CAPEX as an opportunity to buy back into Google at a reasonable price.

dherps

the playstation 6 or ferarri 30XX is not an invention or undefined reality. we know what the playstation 7 and ferrari 30XX will do. just because i can't provide a detailed blueprint of the exact specifications and mechanisms of said products doesn't we can't define what they are or will be. maybe a meteor named global warming hits planet earth before they release and they never come to fruition. there's still no question that the playstation will play games and the ferrari will do ferrari things. look, i hate AI as much as the next guy and regularly bash it in as many ways i can think of, but it's not logically sound to say businesses have no defined strategy as it relates to AI. the strategy is we give the AI bros money, and one day the AI bros will give us an AGI baby. now is that actually gona happen? who the fuck knows. but, again, they're not throwing darts with a blindfold on. they are explicitly paying money for a computerized worker AI that will replace humans and save in operational costs. we know what they're doing.

Wonderful-Savings768

If google had actual AGI, would it not intentionally give shit advice to Sundar so GOOG stock tanks and crashes the market before midterms so new wars are less likely? :hmmm: :hmmm: :hmmm:

Away_Candidate_4746

All of these AI companies are buying pieces of each other as insurance in case they lose the race to AGI/ASI. It’s really as simple as that. They understand that the stakes of losing **if** a competitor achieves ASI/AGI is essentially a death sentence. This gives them a lifeboat in that case.

Away_Candidate_4746

All of these AI companies are buying pieces of each other as insurance in case they lose the race to AGI/ASI. It’s really as simple as that. They understand that the stakes of losing **if** a competitor achieves ASI/AGI is essentially a death sentence. This gives them a lifeboat in that case.

Persistant_eidolon

I agree they will not get an AGI. But Anthropic seems to have a product that is in high demand none the less.

skilliard7

Thanks for the good laugh. Google is focused on short term results and is no longer willing to invest in new and novel ideas, and you think they will be the first to AGI?

Wonderful-Savings768

GOOG has AGI, crashing the market to stop orange man from starting more wars :hesright:

Happy-Champion1661

algos wouldnt buy $GOOG even if they announced AGI lmao

CUbuffGuy

Gunna need GOOGL to come on the call and say the misses were due to expenses from throwing an insane party because they made AGI.

Singularity-42

I mean nothing is "guaranteed". If it was then the stocks would be priced to reflect that. Are you new to stock market?  My thinking personally is that the models get better and bigger and we will still need more compute. Models in the tens of trillions of params. True AGI level capabilities, the mythical "country of geniuses in a data center".  Also compute will be used to basically brute force scientific research of all kinds etc. The entire economy grows accordingly.  Read the ANT S1, it outlines it pretty well. I wouldn't think I would read things that were considered far away scifi in a financial document this soon! 

OurSeepyD

Yes I didn't think I needed to use the exact right words every time given I'd already made my claim. None of these companies IPO'd while AGI was being seriously talked about, but that's clearly not important to you. What's important is picking apart sentences to try to catch people out. Bizarre behaviour.

OurSeepyD

What are we doing here? I [specifically said frontier lab](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1xh6799/comment/19rr6w7y5uhsy). Is C3 considered a frontier lab? Was AGI on the cards in 2020? Such a pointless conversation.

Different_Cow_4316

And they are going to be the first to AGI

Low-Ad-4390

I didn’t ask “what is AGI”.

ExtraSmooth

Yes, I can see that argument. I don't think the market analysts who set valuations for these companies are quite as interested in AGI as the tech founders are.

LALLANAAAAAA

> most coders I personally know have used AI at least to some extend (I'm not a coder). I am. It has increased output, and managers expectations of output. You know what else increases output? Dysentery. Total wash so far. > It also changed the math world forever. These are the simplest however (verifiable results - easier to train). Moderate stance here is that AI at least will dominate every field that can be done just as abstraction/modeling and is easily verifiable. This is all true and reasonable. But the question is whether or not LLMs are *worth it*. The cost is high. Extremely high. In order to not be a bubble, it has to change the world but more importantly, it has to change it in very, very, very, very specific way for the juice to be worth the squeeze. So compared to the picture painted by the tech bros, compared to literal fucking AGI, in both magnitude AND direction, LLMs are not it. They may be part of it one day, but the bubble is predicated on LLMs being exactly what the broligarchy claim it is, at this moment, that claim is a universe away from being demonstrated.

LALLANAAAAAA

> It has revolutionized the tech industry It sure has become a revolving door of shit or is that not what you meant > It has found novel security vulnerabilities sounds like a great offensive weapon > I didn't argue it's a net good, and I think the jury will still be out on that for a while. But anyone that tries to claim it's not world changing is a fool. The claim by LLM hype cyclers is not just that it's "world changing" but "world changing in a way that's worth leveraging the entire economy several times over" right? It can be hugely influential and still be a bubble. It can increase productivity like a motherfucker but productivity means nothing in a vacuum. Assholes become 10x more productive with dysentery. Incidentally, assholes also produce 10x the amount of shit with LLMs too. Poetic isn't it? In all seriousness, I work in tech. LLMs can do some interesting things, but the true cost is being hidden during the hype cycle pump, and the gulf between what they are and what hype cycling pumpers *say they are* is fucking massive. The question isn't whether or not they're going to change things, the question is whether or not they're going to change things in a way commensurate with allowing tech bros to leverage the entire fucking planet on a specific outcome that couldn't be further from guaranteed at this moment. The commenter upthread called them mediocre. Compared to the promises of the hype cyclers, yeah, mediocre. Promise literal AGI and deliver text generators? Mediocre indeed.

More-Curious816

AGI, quantum computing and fusion is near, like next year to be precise. you gotta believe me man.

MrTsLoveChild

Yeah no shit. When Anthropic reaches their magical AGI, and every other model on earth catches up 6 months later, then what?

Low-Ad-4390

What AGI?

lonewolf420

Bessant claiming "I am the House now" to try and save the yen carry fade, while Buffet and co "Put the fries in the bag, lil pup". Tech money has pumped this bubble on low interest so large for a bottoming out bonanza that will bring the fundamentals back to earth with a hell of a lot of bloodshed. but probably not until Buffet is long gone and his team get to go on a buying spree when people have to liquidate in other areas to cover losses. After the great correction, most value picks will just be controlled by an AGI in a decade so that is the clock between now and 2036 or earlier finding miss priced value will be even harder than it is today.

0Bubs0

If the end goal was simply the current form of AI you might be right. Current AI is a stepping stone to AGI which the tech bros believe will usher in a new universe of scientific discovery, medicine, energy, entertainment. What’s the value of a cure for cancer? What’s the value of a design for cold fusion nuclear power plants? I’m not saying this is possible but the tech ceos actually believe it is.

MrSnowden

This is $2T all day.  80% RSI and will easily be the first to AGI.  You buying puts on that?

MarpasDakini

These terms have been in use for decades and have defined meanings. AI is what we have now, a useful tool with serious limits that isn't capable of general application. AGI, meaing artificial general intelligence, is an advanced AI that really can operate in general terms similar to how human beings operate intelligently. SI, or super intelligence, is AGI that is hugely beyond human general intelligence. What we use now is AI. We are trying to develop genuine AGI, and that's what scares people. SI is still fairly far off in the future. To call our current AI super intelligence vastly warps the meaning of these terms. Only an idiot who understands nothing would make that mistake.

4321999

AI > AGI > SI > Extinction. I don't know why he is trying to speed run this.

Accomplished_Sky8077

AGI artificial general intelligence is when it is equal to human.. SI super Intelligence is when it surpases humans .. when we reach super Intelligence there is no controlling it..

SignificanceNo910

Or expand. Thats the gamble.  Yes, maybe the global economy is 100t now, but what would it be when we have AGI and we are using genetically engineered catgirls to grow biologically derived titanium from GMO dick-plants?   The wager is that one of these companies is going to be the one that capitalizes on the next industrial revolution. Anyway, buy high sell low, hodl, regards or whatever

Bloated_Plaid

Bro they are still building insane fucking models, its a fucking race to AGI and there are only 2 players. This is a pivotal moment in human history.

AdAccomplished6870

I work as a sales engineer in Healthcare IT. Predicitive analytics. Generative AI. LLM. ML. Ambient AI. Agentic AI. Even AGI. These are all common terms used to describe specific types or uses of AI. While SI is a term that has a technical meaning(and it is not the meaning that trump asserts it has), it is not used commercially very often.

Orneyrocks

I can't understand you bro. Have you lost the ability to speak a real language after gargling too much oligarch balls? Truly sad to see man. Even if AGI does get developed, I can always jump onto the agi ship and make bank, better late than never. Its really you who should be hoping that any american company never reaches AGI, because you guys are the first ones to get wiped off the map then.